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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-125||104 h 1 m||Show|
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET.
The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game.
The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale.
The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC).
The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said.
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-108||124 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET.
I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true.
No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title.
Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known.
Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion.
LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!).
Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.'
The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October. Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season
Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams||Top||22-30||Win||100||108 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.
LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch.
Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!)..
I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion.
The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action.
Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches).
Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons).
LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus.
|01-06-19||Chargers +3 v. Ravens||Top||23-17||Win||100||149 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST).
The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round.
The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest.
But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one.
Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup.
The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket.
Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West.
The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs.
In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards.
I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.
Play on the Chargers.
|12-30-18||Browns +6 v. Ravens||Top||24-26||Win||100||105 h 12 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST).
Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year.
Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points.
The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks.
The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns.
|12-30-18||Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos||Top||23-9||Win||100||104 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST).
No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong.
LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a 22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG.
The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses.
Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT.
Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||125 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST).
Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest.
This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC.
These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense.
The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one.
The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG.
Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG.
Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG.
Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue.
Grab the points.
|12-22-18||Ravens +5 v. Chargers||Top||22-10||Win||100||101 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).
Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards).
The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs.
LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory.
Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road.
The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points.
|12-17-18||Saints -6 v. Panthers||Top||12-9||Loss||-106||14 h 17 m||Show|
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST).
Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking.
The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage.
Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points.
Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall.
I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite.
With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow.
Lay the points.
|12-16-18||Eagles v. Rams -9||Top||30-23||Loss||-105||132 h 16 m||Show|
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST).
Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend.
Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend.
LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well.
Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less.
This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA.
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||Top||17-24||Loss||-110||125 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).
The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario.
Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG.
The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG.
Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog.
The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.
|12-15-18||Texans -6 v. Jets||Top||29-22||Win||100||121 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST).
The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion.
Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak.
But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick.
I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home.
I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.
|12-13-18||Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||29-28||Win||100||77 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST).
It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB.
In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.
LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend.
The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season.
The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll.
I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks -3||Top||7-21||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).
With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.
The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue.
Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own.
Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times.
I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records.
The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|12-09-18||Colts +5 v. Texans||Top||24-21||Win||100||116 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST).
This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup.
Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs.
The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass.
Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6.
I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories.
Grab the points.
|12-09-18||Panthers -1 v. Browns||Top||20-26||Loss||-120||116 h 34 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today.
It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG.
However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG.
Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT.
The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home.
I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina.
Play on the Panthers.
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||Top||33-30||Loss||-130||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.
LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG.
Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches.
I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.
|12-02-18||Browns v. Texans -6||Top||13-29||Win||100||116 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST).
The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it.
The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG.
The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs.
I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak.
This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points.
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||Top||17-34||Loss||-105||13 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight.
The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team.
The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams.
Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average.
The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread.
So where’s the advantage?
This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well.
Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here.
Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-125||126 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG.
Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG.
These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well.
Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||69 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).
The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday.
Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th.
The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here?
The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year.
Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak.
While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||Top||51-54||Push||0||14 h 60 m||Show|
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).
I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game.
KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.)
LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here.
Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday.
The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front.
KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.
Play on LA.
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||Top||7-48||Loss||-114||127 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s do or die for the defending champs.
The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs.
Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined.
Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG.
New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here
Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG.
I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points.
Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary.
I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-18-18||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||Top||22-19||Loss||-120||143 h 5 m||Show|
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though.
It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today.
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD.
The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team.
The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches.
I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points.
The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||58 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).
This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end.
So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams.
Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores.
It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.)
Grab the points.
|11-12-18||Giants +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||27-23||Win||100||36 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST)
These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night.
San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side.
Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.)
The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense.
Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +4.5||Top||51-14||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).
The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here.
New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs.
The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory.
Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs.
From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Jaguars v. Colts -2.5||Top||26-29||Win||100||127 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.
Both teams are 3-5.
Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league.
The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records.
The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers -3.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||80 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday.
Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday.
Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week.
So where’s the advantage?!
Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-05-18||Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys||Top||28-14||Win||100||78 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.”
Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well.
Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well.
Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range.
Grab the points.
|11-04-18||Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins||Top||6-13||Loss||-133||143 h 29 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST).
These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler.
Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air.
Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall.
I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||3-34||Loss||-121||81 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST).
The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend.
Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards.
The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs.
Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year.
Grab the points.
|10-28-18||Seahawks v. Lions -2.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-115||143 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG.
Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT.
Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory.
Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.)
I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum.
Lay the points.
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans -7||Top||23-42||Win||100||79 h 28 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST).
These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week.
The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville.
Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times.
The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week.
Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans.
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -4||Top||20-23||Loss||-102||37 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST).
It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season.
The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr.
The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards.
Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense.
Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes.
Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion.
I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.
|10-21-18||Cowboys +2 v. Redskins||Top||17-20||Loss||-115||145 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).
Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement.
Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one.
Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well.
The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers.
Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2.
The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries.
I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory.
Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game.
The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings.
Grab the points.
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3||Top||23-26||Push||0||142 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).
Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts.
Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team.
For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD.
Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack.
The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here.
Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road.
I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|10-18-18||Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||45-10||Win||100||79 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST)
Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams.
Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota.
Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s.
The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s.
Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home.
I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||40-43||Push||0||158 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.
KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue.
Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD.
After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well.
A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive.
Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year.
And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots.
|10-14-18||Colts +2.5 v. Jets||Top||34-42||Loss||-102||142 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others.
Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21.
Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6.
Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less.
I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points.
|10-11-18||Eagles -3 v. Giants||Top||34-13||Win||100||77 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).
While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week.
Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards.
New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s.
Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home.
The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York.
Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests.
I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.
|10-07-18||Rams -7 v. Seahawks||Top||33-31||Loss||-114||148 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).
To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right?
Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point.
However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that.
Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s.
Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8.
Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s.
Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3.
The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams.
|10-07-18||Giants +7 v. Panthers||Top||31-33||Win||100||145 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs.
Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week.
The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground.
Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG.
Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range.
I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||35 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST).
The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage.
I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion.
Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight.
Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year.
Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter.
Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24.
I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).
It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point.
Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.)
I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though.
The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3.
Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.)
Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats.
|09-30-18||Lions +3 v. Cowboys||Top||24-26||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here.
Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990.
Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR.
The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7.
Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT.
Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record.
Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points.
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||79 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST).
Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6.
Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2.
Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game.
Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here.
The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes.
There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.)
Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult.
LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season.
The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times.
Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Grab the points, play on the Vikes.
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs||Top||30-27||Win||100||36 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going.
Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here.
And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3.
The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2.
Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs.
Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance.
The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less.
Play on the Steelers.
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions +7||Top||10-26||Win||100||151 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST).
An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week.
And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension.
New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback.
So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet.
Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers.
Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season.
I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record.
Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously.
As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit.
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns -3||Top||17-21||Win||100||80 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST).
New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami.
Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2.
Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue.
The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s.
Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well.
I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest.
I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +3||Top||33-13||Loss||-100||1046 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST).
Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas.
|09-09-18||Bears +9 v. Packers||Top||23-24||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).
This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes.
Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year.
QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel.
On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after.
Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games.
Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late.
No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points.
|01-21-18||Vikings -3.5 v. Eagles||Top||7-38||Loss||-100||153 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Minnesota Vikings (6:40 EST).
The 14-3 Minnesota Vikings are in Philadelphia to take on the 14-3 Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it.
These are a couple of the league’s best defensive clubs, but I think this one will comfortably sneak over this lower-number once it’s all said and done.
Minnesota comes in off a 29-24 home win over New Orleans on a last second TD, while Philadelphia got the better of Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday.
The Vikes managed the big win last week, but their vaunted defense looked pretty horrible in allowing 24 second half points. In the end Minnesota allowed 358 yards.
Minnesota QB Case Keenum had 318 yards, one TD and one INT last week, while Stefon Diggs would go on to catch the 61 yard TD reception as time ran off the clock.
The Vikings come into the Conference Championship game averaging 23.9 PPG, while conceding 15.8.
Nick Foles is under center for the home side after starter Carson Wentz was lost to injury late in the regular season. Foles was an efficient 23 of 30 for 246 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s last week.
The Eagles average 28.6 PPG, while conceding 18.4. Jay Ajayi had 54 yards on 15 carries last Saturday. Philadelphia looked sharp defensively, but I think it’ll have its hands full with Minnesota’s balanced attack.
I’ll point out as well that the Vikings have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 29 or more points in their previous outing, while conversely this has been one area in which the Eagles have struggled in, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three after holding their previous opponent to ten points or less.
I look for the Vikes to take this one back home and to be the first team in history to host a Super Bowl. Lay the points.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-29||Win||100||153 h 48 m||Show|
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Minnesota Vikings (4:40 EST).
New Orleans comes in off a thrilling 31-26 home win over Carolina in the Wildcard round, while Minnesota earned a first round bye after posting a 13-3 regular season record.
Note that when these teams played in Week 1, it was the Vikes that easily took care of business 29-19. Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 291 yards and one TD in that one.
Brees had 376 passing yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s last week. WR Michael Thomas had 131 yards, but was held to just five catches for 45 yards in the Week 1 loss to Minnesota.
New Orleans looked very one-dimensional as well last week, posting just 41 yards rushing, including just 23 from rookie Alvin Kamara.
The Saints comes into this one averaging 28 PPG and conceding 20.4.
Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG and concedes a NFL best 15.8. In fact over their final three regular season games the Vikes allowed just 17 combined points. QB Case Keenum sports an elite 22/7 TD/INT and posted ten TD’s over his final six games.
The Vikes run game played a key part in the team’s success as well as it finished seventh in the NFL on the ground. Keep your eyes on the duo of Latavius Murry and Jerick McKinnon.
I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six home playoff games.
The Vikes got the job done all year with their smothering defensive plays (ranked second both against the pass and run) and I ultimately believe they’ll ride the unit to another solid victory in front of the home town crowd and with the extra week off to prepare.
The Saints have had a great year, but the story ends tonight in this tough atmosphere.
Lay the points, play on Minnesota.
|01-07-18||Panthers +6 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||151 h 28 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST).
The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire.
It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team.
The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21.
Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge.
The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground.
I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest.
As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team.
Grab the points, play on Carolina.
|01-06-18||Falcons v. Rams -4.5||Top||26-13||Loss||-123||131 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).
The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier.
Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground.
Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.)
LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records.
LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch.
Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams.
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||124 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST).
The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th.
The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens.
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year.
Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries.
I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less.
Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series.
The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can.
Play on the Bengals.
|12-24-17||Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys||Top||21-12||Win||100||122 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).
Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams.
In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory.
Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s.
I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record.
I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.
|12-17-17||Eagles v. Giants +7.5||Top||34-29||Win||100||120 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory.
The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG.
This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible.
New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s.
Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.”
Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend.
The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion.
While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.
|12-16-17||Chargers v. Chiefs +2||Top||13-30||Win||100||104 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST).
The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory.
The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded.
Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s.
KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards.
I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing.
The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing.
The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown.
Play on Kansas City.
|12-14-17||Broncos -2.5 v. Colts||Top||25-13||Win||100||56 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST).
The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday.
The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend.
When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done.
Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG.
Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest.
Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.
I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points.
|12-11-17||Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins||Top||20-27||Loss||-110||35 h 5 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).
The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit.
The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here.
And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory.
So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7.
Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9.
I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series.
I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots.
|12-10-17||Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars||Top||24-30||Loss||-110||142 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).
The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors.
Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year.
The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee.
The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total.
I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory.
As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +1||Top||17-20||Win||100||74 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST).
The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota.
The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons.
New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG.
Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321.
New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall.
Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals +6||Top||23-20||Win||100||35 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST).
The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening.
This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd.
If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers.
The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense.
Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.
|11-26-17||Bucs v. Falcons -9.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||119 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)
The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend.
The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami.
Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.
But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now:
“We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.”
I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest.
This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch.
Lay the points, play on the Falcons.
|11-23-17||Chargers v. Cowboys||Top||28-6||Win||100||72 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST).
The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one.
Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground.
The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s.
Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup.
I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing.
Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company.
Play on the Chargers.
|11-19-17||Ravens v. Packers +2||Top||23-0||Loss||-110||126 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET.
The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20.
Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday.
In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries.
Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground.
Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.
The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.
Play on Green Bay.
|11-16-17||Titans v. Steelers -7||Top||17-40||Win||100||56 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST).
The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals.
Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case.
Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.)
Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th.
And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster.
The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4)
The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games.
I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage.
Lay the points, play on the Steelers.
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +8.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-135||103 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST).
The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home.
The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend.
So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season.
Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores.
This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season.
So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points.
Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points.
|11-06-17||Lions -2 v. Packers||Top||30-17||Win||100||49 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).
The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season.
That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light.
Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game.
In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards.
Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG.
Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss.
Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on the Lions.
|10-30-17||Broncos v. Chiefs -7||Top||19-29||Win||100||58 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).
Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th.
I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position.
Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.)
Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss.
Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment.
Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season.
KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG.
The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense.
KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent.
But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night.
|10-29-17||Steelers -2.5 v. Lions||Top||20-15||Win||100||127 h 17 m||Show|
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).
The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger.
Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati.
Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT.
Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games.
The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71:
“The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.”
Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year.
The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records.
Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games.
Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.
|10-26-17||Dolphins v. Ravens -3||Top||0-40||Win||100||55 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST).
The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore.
The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend.
As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts.
The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far.
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.)
I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less.
Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points.
|10-22-17||Seahawks -5 v. Giants||Top||24-7||Win||100||143 h 51 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).
The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.
The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.
Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night.
Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.
The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit.
New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.
The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.
Lay the points.
|10-16-17||Colts +9 v. Titans||Top||22-36||Loss||-125||26 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).
The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup.
Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.
So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05.
Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far.
Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties.
Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.
And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD.
I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points!
|10-15-17||Dolphins v. Falcons -11||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||139 h 57 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing.
Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans.
Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled.
Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year.
The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.)
I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week.
Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment.
With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points.
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||75 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST).
The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here.
The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.
Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory.
The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well.
In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries.
Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.)
Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one.
Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less.
As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest.
I’m laying the points.
|10-09-17||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||20-17||Push||0||37 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST).
The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.
Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.
The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD.
Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night.
Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards.
Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky.
Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.)
Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s.
Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground.
And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end.
|10-08-17||Panthers +3 v. Lions||Top||27-24||Win||100||137 h 26 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings.
Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break:
“It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.”
Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion.
Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing.
I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina.
|10-05-17||Patriots v. Bucs +6||Top||19-14||Win||100||73 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST).
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today.
The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.
It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.)
Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina.
New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.)
And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground.
The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants.
Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers.
|10-02-17||Redskins v. Chiefs -7||Top||20-29||Win||101||50 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).
Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS.
I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City.
The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night.
With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off.
Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important.
As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this.
If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field.
Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.)
Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival.
I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|10-01-17||Steelers -2.5 v. Ravens||Top||26-9||Win||100||146 h 11 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).
I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations.
And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side.
The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago.
QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble.
Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form.
After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s.
Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over.
The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon.
Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.
|09-28-17||Bears v. Packers -7||Top||14-35||Win||100||96 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST).
Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here.
Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home.
Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios.
The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick.
That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards.
I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd.
I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay.
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