Cappers Sports Picks

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Robbie Ray returns from an extended stint on the DL to a favorable matchup in Miami and I think the hard-throwing southpaw will make the most of it.

Ray (2-0, 4.88 ERA) made two re-hab starts and was scheduled to make three, but an injury to Clay Buchholz likely bumped him up. Regardless, he’s been cleared to go tonight and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to put out an efficient outing. In his final rehab on Tuesday he’d give up three runs (one earned) over 4.1 innings while also striking out nine. Note that Ray was dominant on the road last year by going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA. 

The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (2-4, 6.70) who most recently was crushed for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a blowout loss to Colorado on Friday. Chen has in fact been a lot better at home (2-1, 2.53) than on the road (1-4, 9.85), but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all night games.

The Diamondbacks are 21-18 (+5.6 units) on the road this year, while the Marlins are just 15-21 (-1.6 units) at home. I think Ray finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST).

I think the Rockies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Granted, Chad Bettis (5-1, 5.23 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent all year for Colorado, but he catches a break here going up against Derek Holland and avoiding a home start as well.

Bettis enters off an outing to forget against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing eight runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. 

But as mentioned above, while he’s 0-0 with an 8.75 ERA at home, Bettis is a “lights out” 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road.

Holland (5-7, 4.48) gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings against Miami on Wednesday. Holland has been hit or miss this year, especially with his play at home where he comes in sporting a 2-2, 5.34 ERA record thus far. 

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is a solid 30-21 (+8.7 units) in all night games so far this season, while the Giants are just 22-28 (-4.8 units) in the same position.

Everything points to a minor upset in the opener of this series. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (5-5, 4.56 ERA) who most recently was rocked for eight runs off eight hits and a walk in 9-3 loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Kuhl would only strike out two, while also allowing two home runs. Kuhl has for the most part been solid overall this season, but I’ll point out that he’s still only 3-3 with a 6.04 ERA in all night games to this point.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (3-5, 3.68) who gave up five runs over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 loss to Colorado on Thursday. It was the most runs that he’s given up in any start this year, so I don’t think there’s any need to overreact to one poor effort. Matz has a 3-2, 3.47 ERA in all night games as well.

Both teams have underwhelmed this season, but Matz at home at this price is the correct call in my opinion. Look for the revenge-minded Mets to deliver the goods on Tuesday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).

One of these starters has been consistent all season, while the other for the most has struggled across the board. After their 5-3 win in the opener of this three game series, I think that James Paxton and the visiting Seattle Mariners will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Tuesday as well.

Paxton (6-2, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a loss against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up four runs over five innings of work, while also going on to strikeout nine. Paxton though would allow two home runs and three walks. 

That’s back-to-back shaky outings against two of the league’s most prolific clubs (Boston and then New York), but I think the big southpaw can bounce back in this favorable matchup tonight. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this year.

Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman gave up two runs off four walks and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman is winless since early May and note that he’s only 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

Additionally note that Seattle is 23-13 (+4.2 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is just 9-30 (-16.7 units) against teams with winning records. 

I think Paxton bounces back and the hard-hitting Mariners do the rest. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) (7:35 EST).

The Reds come in off an 8-6 win at home over the Cubs yesterday and now hit the road for a tough series in Atlanta. 

The Braves were at home yesterday afternoon and they’d pull away for a convincing 7-3 win over the Orioles.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (6-6, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings. For the most part Mahle has been solid, but if he’s had one area weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s just 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA. 

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.16) who returns from a very short stop on the ten-day DL due to shoulder inflammation. Foltynewicz threw a bullpen session and has been cleared to go and so far he’s 3-3 with a 2.19 ERA in all night games and 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 18-27 (-5.4 units) in all night games, while Atlanta is 26-23 (+2.3 units) in the same position.

Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises this year and I don’t foresee an upset. For arguments sakes, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” This matchup definitely favors the hard-hitting home side and I think it’s well worth the price of admission. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST).

Both teams come in off victories. The Tribe won 12-2 at home over the Tigers, while the Cards took care of business on the road in Milwaukee 8-2. 

For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors the home side.

The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the anemic White Sox on Tuesday. Clevinger has been sharp overall this season and it’s basically impossible to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that this is going to be a tough matchup, considering he’ll be playing under National League rules.

The home side counters with John Gant (1-2, 4.39) who has made seven appearances for the big club this year. Note that Gant owned a sharp 2.25 ERA in all home games last season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 4-9 (-9.5 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis is 9-5 (+3.8 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. 

I look for St. Louis to find a way to take the opener of this interleague contest. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) (7:05 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-6, 5.14 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday, giving up two runs (just one earned) off six hits with a walk while striking out six over five innings. 

Hernandez induced 17 swinging strikes and he’s now conceded just two earned runs while posting a sharp 12/2 K/W over his last 12 innings of work spanning two starts (and that was against New York and Boston.)

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.72) who returned from the DL to post a decent outing, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. 

Starts like that though have been few and far between for Cashner this season and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s so far a poor 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle has done extremely well in this spot all year, going 33-16 (+15.3 units) in all night games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in the same position.

I like Hernandez to carry over his momentum, while everything points to regression for the streaky Cashner in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

The Yankees fell 7-6 in Tampa Bay last night, while the Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but enter off a tough 8-6 loss on Sunday night baseball.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side.

New York goes with Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Wednesday. 

Loaisiga shut down the Rays in his debut though and so far he’s shown tremendous potential. 

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82) who comes in off a no-decision to the Cards on Tuesday, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings of work. 

Velasquez though has consistently been at his worst at home this year, sporting a poor 3-4, 6.70 ERA record in Philadelphia.

I’ll point out as well that New York is already 12-6 (+2.6 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 18-32 (-5.9 units) in its last 50 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but I think that the Nationals will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over 7.1 innings in a no-decision against St. Louis. Pivetta has been decent this year and it’s hard to find too many faults, I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counter with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 4.66) who gave up five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodriguez’s only other appearance in the big leagues was a 4.2 scoreless innings effort against the Braves.

I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 8-14 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Washington is 19-14 (+4.4 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125.

I’m banking on the revenge minded home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (3:10 EST).

Miami won 6-2 yesterday and I think it and Caleb Smith have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well.

Smith (5-6, 4.03 ERA) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks with four K’s over four innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Note though that Smith enters with a highly respectable 3.46 ERA in all day games this year.

The home side counters with the volatile German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. 

Marquez though has given up at least four runs in all four starts in June, posting a 7.77 ERA and conceding seven home runs over 22 innings in that span. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA at home as well.

Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers, but Smith comes in throwing much more consistent at this point. Everything points to another minor upset on Sunday afternoon. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

The Giants held on for a 5-3 win yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. 

The visitors hand the ball to volatile Eric Lauer (3-4, 5.47 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Tuesday. The southpaw owns the poor ERA to go along with an atrocious .324 opponent batting average. Also note that Lauer has been at his worst on the road with a 1-2, 5.83 ERA record.

The home side counters with Dereck Rodriguez (2-1, 4.56) who struck out six and walked zero in a victory over Miami on Tuesday, conceding three runs over five innings. So far Rodriguez owns a respectable 22/6 K/W over 23.2 innings of work. Note as well that Rodriguez has been at his best at home thus far with a 2-0, 3.27 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego is already a poor 11-13 (-1.5 units) this year in all day games, while San Francisco is 17-11 (+10.5 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

I had a play on Arizona last night, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set and salvage getting swept. 

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (1-1, 2.94 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Sunday. Buchholz has been solid in his limited time, but I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-4, 4.00) who comes in off a gem against Milwaukee on Monday, going seven scoreless and allowing only one hit to go along with seven K’s. Williams bounced back after a poor stretch and he’ll be looking to atone for a lacklustre effort against the Diamondbacks earlier in the year in which he allowed eight runs over three innings (just three earned.) 

I’ll point out though that Williams has been at his best at home by going 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA. 

I’m banking on Williams outdueling Buchholz and for the revenge minded home side to deliver the goods at the end of the afternoon. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think this one highly favors the home side. All things considered, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who is being activated from the 10-day disabled list. Stroman threw a simulated game and has been given the green light here to try and improve upon his dismal start to the 2018 campaign. To go along with his ballooned 7.71 ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 total innings of work. 

The Angels counter with Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over four innings on Monday. Barria has been hurt by the long-ball of late, but note that he has a respectable 4-2, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all night games this season, while LA is 30-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position.

Barria is the correct call here in my opinion. Stroman’s shown no consistency whatsoever this season and he’s hard to trust on the road on his first start off the DL. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9*) (7:15 EST).

I don’t normally play favorites of this size, but in my opinion Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-4, 4.47 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one K in a setback to these very Red Sox last Sunday.

Leake has probably been better than the Mariners could have asked for to this point, but he still has only 55 K’s over 92.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games.

Rodriguez (9-1, 3.59) was on the winning side of last Sunday’s result, giving up two earned runs off six hits while striking out nine and walking one in his team’s 9-3 victory. It was his sixth straight winning decision and he now comes in with a sharp 90/24 K/W over 77.2 innings.

Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA in all night games this year and 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Rodriguez has another prime opportunity to pad his already impressive numbers. 

Lay the price, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST).

I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill.

The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. 

New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. 

Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) (4:05 EST).

I think Arizona will find a way to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory. While I don’t ever normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night, and then come back with the other in the following game), MLB is the one sport where each contest must be examined individually, because of the starting pitchers.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-5, 3.90 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits with two walks to go along with five K’s over 6.1 innings in a win over the Angels on Monday. 

Greinke had struggled previous to this decent outing, but he now certainly appears back on track.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Musgrove’s early numbers were impressive, but unsustainable in my opinion. While he still owns a sharp 17/2 K/W over his last three starts, I think that further regression is imminent.

Note as well that Arizona is already 23-15 (+7.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is already just 15-20 (-3.3 units) against clubs with winning records. 

I like the surging D-Backs to find a way to get the job done here behind Greinke.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Both teams come in off a night of rest. Ultimately I think that Mike Fiers and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Fiers (5-3, 4.09 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with four K’s over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. While clearly not perfect, Fiers has for the most part been as solid as the Tigers could have possibly asked for this season. He’ll now look to improve upon his 2-2, 4.55 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Shane Bieber (1-0, 3.97) who was called up to make a start on Sunday against the Twins. Bieber looked decent in that outing, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. 

The Indians may have the advantage at the plate, but I firmly believe that Fiers is the correct call in this matchup. It’s certainly fantastic value on the determined veteran. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

After falling 6-2 yesterday, I like the Cubbies to bounce back on Friday night in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them.

The visitors turn to Jose Quintana (6-5, 4.06 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits over five innings, with three strikeouts in what turned out to be a loss to the Cards on Sunday. 

It was Quintana’s fourth straight start though in which he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. While his ERA is pedestrian, note that he comes in sporting a respectable 1.33 WHIP.

Note as well that while he’s a poor 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA at home, Quintana is a super 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (4-8, 5.77) who allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. It marked his fourth straight loss. Over his last 20.2 innings of work, Castillo has conceded a combined 16 runs. 

The Cubs have performed well in this spot for bettors all year as well, going 8-4 (+2.6 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range.

Conversely, this is a position in which the Reds have struggled in mightily all season, going a horrible 1-7 (-5.7 units) in all home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

After yesterday’s humbling 9-3 defeat, I think the Pirates bounce back on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.48 ERA) who was most recently rocked for eight runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. Corbin was arguably the best pitcher in the entire league after the first month of the year, but clearly his early numbers were unsustainable, as note that he’s now conceded 17 earned runs over his last 23.2 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill.

The hungry home side counters with Ivan Nova (4-5, 4.42) who looked sharp in a win over the Reds on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits with three walks while striking out three over six innings. Since returning from the DL, Nova has looked great, allowing two runs over 11.2 innings of work. 

Note that Nova comes is sporting the respectable 3.48 ERA at home as well so far this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by Corbin suggests that he has another long night ahead of him against these revenge minded Pirates, while everything points to Nova continuing his consistent production in front of the home town crowd.

Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10*) (10:15 EST).

Madison Bumgarner has pitched twice since returning from injury and while he hasn’t looked dominant, he’s been decent. Suffice it to say, I think the veteran southpaw will get off the schneid this evening though and out duel his younger counterpart.

The Padres hand the ball to Tyson Ross (5-4, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off three hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings to the Braves on Thursday. Ross has been as good as San Diego could possibly ask for, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

Bumgarner (0-2, 4.67) gave up three runs with three K’s over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. While he has just nine strikeouts over his first 17.2 innings of work, note that he’d finish with a decent 3.40 ERA in all home games last year. There’s no reason not to think that Bumgarner won’t be able to carry over his progression for this first win of the season. And he faces a perfect opponent as well, as the Padres have been much better at home than on the road this season (especially in manufacturing offensive production.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego just 8-12 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while San Francisco is 20-12 (+6.7 units) in front of the home town crowd overall this season. 

I’m banking on Bumgarner to find a way to get the job done this evening and punch his first one into the win column. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (7:10 EST).

I feel that Kyle Hendricks and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

Hendricks (5-6, 3.55 ERA) most recently conceded three runs while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks has been more susceptible to allowing the home run ball this year, but he should come in quite confident facing the anemic Reds. Note as well that Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey (1-5, 5.92) who gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Harvey for the most part has struggled for his new team and note that he’s just 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in all home games to this point. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is already 8-4 (+2.6 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Reds are a poor 1-7 (-5.7 units) this season as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

This is a mismatch on the mound. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the St. Louis Cardinals (10:05 EST).

I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team (taking one team one day and then the following day/game playing the other side.) However, MLB comes down to the starting pitching and I’ve always been of the thought that each matchup has to be looked at individually. 

Michael Wacha comes in off his first crummy outing of the year for the Cards, but I think he’s going to bounce back here in this favorable matchup. Jake Arrieta started the season strong for his new team, but he’s been struggling over the last month and suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry over here.

Wacha (8-2, 3.24 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off seven hits in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Three home runs were the difference. Outings like that have been few and far between for the big right-hander the last couple of years though, so there’s no reason to overreact to once lousy start. Despite the sub-par performance, note that Wacha still owns the respectable ERA, to go along with a solid 1.19 WHIP and elite level .213 opponent batting average. Note as well that Wacha comes in with the strong 3-1, 3.54 ERA road record.

Arrieta (5-5, 3.33) comes in off a third straight setback, allowing eight runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings against the Brewers on Friday. Arrieta’s slide back to mediocrity has seen him given up 18 runs over his last three starts. Note that his 6.2 K/9 that he owns right now is a 2.5 point drop from his 2016/17 numbers. 

Something’s “wrong” with Arrieta and I don’t think that the right-hander will be able to just “flip a switch” and gets things turned around immediately.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Arrieta suggests that he’ll have another long night ahead of him here. I’m banking on Wacha taking advantage and getting back on track. Great value, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luke Weaver (3-6, 4.52 ERA) who most recently was rocked for four runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to San Diego on Wednesday. 

Note that Weaver enters with the sub-par 3-3, 4.98 ERA record on the road to this point.

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.74) who gave up two runs off one hit and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. Velasquez would go on to post 13 swinging strikes in the dominant effort and I think the hard-throwing right-hander will carry that momentum over here.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is a poor 9-14 (-6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is a solid 12-9 (+1.9 units) when at home with a similarly ranged price. 

All things considered, great value on the home side in this one. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).

I believe Marco Gonzalez and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Gonzalez (7-3, 3.42 ERA) gave up three runs while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday. The southpaw would throw 61 of his 101 pitches for strikes and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that Gonzalez has in fact been at his best this season away from friendly confines with a 5-2, 3.29 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Domingo German (1-4, 5.32) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a win over the Rays on Thursday. It was his first victory of the season, so suffice it to say I’m not reading too much into the single decent performance. Note that German is a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA at home to this point.

The Mariners are 46-26 this year, while New York is 46-21. These teams have been solid for bettors all season, but I’ll point that Seattle is already a perfect 3-0 (+4.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The M’s have been tearing the cover off the ball of late, so I’m calling these line-ups a “wash.”

And that then swings the value in favor of the undervalued underdog in my opinion. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

The Jays have been hot at home and just swept the Nationals in a three-game interleague series. However, I think Toronto is going to stumble against the hard-hitting Braves on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka (2-1, 2.57 ERA) who returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the Mets, going to to give up one hit and a walk while striking out four over 6.1 scoreless frames of work. 

Soroka was extremely efficient, throwing 44 of his 74 pitches for strikes. To go along with his shiny ERA, note that Soroka also sports a strong 19/5 K/W over his first four big-league starts.

The home side counters with the volatile Jaime Garcia (2-5, 5.71), who most recently was rocked for four runs off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Garcia has been better at home than on the road for Toronto this year, but note that he’s still a sub-par 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in all night games.

Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is already a poor 15-19 (-1.6 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 15-9 (+4.2 units) this season against clubs with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

This is one in which I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.75 ERA) who faced San Francisco last Wednesday and earned a no-decision for his effort after allowing three runs off eight hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings. Note that it was the fourth straight start in which he’s posted five or fewer strikeouts. 

Also note that Smith is just 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA on the road.

Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.92) didn’t factor into the decision as well throwing opposite Smith last week, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings. Suarez continues to make major strides, as evidenced by his 3.31 ERA in June. Also note that he’s consistently been at his best in friendly confines with a 3.55 ERA record. 

San Francisco has been at its best at home as well, going 19-11 (+7.2 units). I expect the Suarez to outduel his counterpart and for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (9*) (8:40 EST).

Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitchers. However, I still think that Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot.

DeGrom (4-2, 1.55 ERA) is coming off a loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, giving up one run off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings. 

The Mets took two of three from the Diamondbacks over the weekend and I think they’re going to finally give their ace some support here. Note that DeGrom also owns an elite 1.01 WHIP and impressive 113/23 K/W over 87.1 innings. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (4-1, 4.48) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out six over seven innings against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Anderson has looked good of late, but note that he owns the elevated 5.14 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that New York is already 4-1 (+2.4 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Colorado is only 4-6 (-2.3 units) at home with a money line set between +125 to -125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (7:05 EST).

Despite throwing on the road, I think that Miles Mikolas and the Cards are getting little respect in this particular matchup.

Mikolas (7-2, 2.43 ERA) most recently struck out five and walked zero and gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Tuesday. Mikolas has lost two of his last three starts, but note that he’s posted a quality effort in each.

And despite the win/loss record of late, note that he still holds the sharp ERA, to go along with an elite 0.96 WHIP and 63/9 K/W over 85.1 innings of work. Mikolas will now look to get back on track here and improve upon his 3-0, 3.41 ERA road record. 

The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.25), who gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings against the Rockies on Wednesday. 

Pivetta comes in with zero momentum as he’s now lost four straight and he hasn’t made it out of the fifth frame in any of them. Pivetta’s strikeout numbers remain solid, but his peripherals suggest that further regression is imminent. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA in all night games.

I think Mikolas will easily out duel the struggling Pivetta and all things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks with two K’s over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Monday.

Quintana though continues to struggle with consistency, as he hasn’t completed six innings in consecutive starts since the start of the year.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.96) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. 

Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year either, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a 2-1, 3.38 ERA thus far.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Cubs are a poor 36-40 (-5.8 units) in their last 76 when on the road and the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while St. Louis is already 8-4 (+3.6 units) this season at home with a money line between +125 and -125. 

I like Flaherty to out duel the “on again, off again” Quintana and for the home side to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST).

A couple of competent hurlers collide in the finale of this three game set and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

Boston hands the ball to the red hot Eduardo Rodriguez (8-1, 3.64 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 victory over Baltimore on Tuesday.

Rodriguez has had difficulty going deep into games, but the victory marked his fifth straight. Rodriguez will now look to improve upon his 3-0, 3.68 ERA road record.

Seattle counters with Mike Leake (7-3, 4.26) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. 

After a shaky start to the 2018 campaign, Leake has looked much better of late, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

As note that Seattle is a poor 60-67 (-15.8 units) in its last 127 against left-handed starters.

Also note that Boston is a superb 40-15 (+16.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

Clay Buchholz has been better than expected for the Diamondbacks in his limited time, but I think that Zach Wheeler and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup.

Wheeler (2-5, 4.98 ERA) will be eager to get back on track here after allowing six runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Previous to this “dud,” Wheeler had posted back-to-back quality efforts though, so I’m not reading too much into the lacklustre performance. Note that Wheeler owns a respectable 3.91 ERA in all day games this year.

Buchholz (1-1, 3.21) comes in off a poor showing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Tuesday. 

As mentioned off the top, Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for the D-Backs to this point, but clearly his early numbers are unsustainable and suffice it to say, I believe the veteran takes another step back here.

Arizona is 23-14 at home this year, while New York is only 14-17 on the road. I’ll point out though that Arizona’s weakness this season has been its play in all day games, going only 10-13 (-3 units) in such situations. 

I expect Wheeler to out duel his overachieving counterpart and I look for the Mets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

Cincinnati sends Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 5.40 ERA) to the hill in the finale of this three game set.

DeSclafani most recently allowed three runs off ten hits with two walks over five innings in a win over the Cardinals on Sunday. This was his second start since September 2016, as he’d be rocked for four runs over four innings in his season debut previous. So which DeSclafani shows up this afternoon?

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-1, 2.16) who gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits with six K’s in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. Musgrove needed only 88 pitches to get through the six frames and he’d also go on to generate ten swinging strikes with his off-speed pitches on just 29 offerings. 

Musgrove has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA at home so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is now 17-14 (+4.9 units) against the division this year, while Cincinnati is just 7-23 (-15 units) in the same position.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I do indeed believe we’re getting great value on Musgrove and the home side. Lay this reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Miami on Monday. Of the 91 pitches he threw, only 55 percent went for strikes. Clearly Bumgarner is still trying to shake off some rust after returning from injury. Note that he’s been at his worst on the road so far in his limited time back with a ballooned 6.75 ERA as well.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (1-5, 4.43) who had to leave his last start against these very Giants early with a hamstring issue. Wood has stumbled of late after a decent start, but I think he still has the advantage in this matchup. Note that he still sports the decent 4.18 ERA at home and an even better 3.96 ERA in all night games.

I’m giving Wood the slight nod in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Great line value, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (4:10 EST).

Here’s another one where I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (3-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a victory over these very Brewers on Sunday. Eflin has been decent of late and it’s difficult in fact to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-4, 2.71) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision against Chicago on Monday. 

Guerra has now posted four quality starts in a row and he has to be feeling confident here, as not only does he have a 2.79 ERA at home, but he also owns a sharp 1.99 ERA in all day contests.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is a poor 13-19 (-4 units) on the road, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) in front of the home town crowd. 

I like Guerra to continue his dominance at home. Lay the very reasonable price.

Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) (4:05 EST).

Here’s a matchup in which I feel that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luis Castillo (4-7, 5.79 ERA), who was rocked for five runs with three walks over six innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. Castillo has now given up 15 home runs over 73 innings and to go along with his sub-par ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.42 WHIP. Also note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road all year with a 2-4, 6.64 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68) who returned from injury to face the Cubs on Sunday, looking sharp by allowing one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in the victory. Nova showed no signs of rust whatsoever and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that while he’s a disappointing 0-3 at home so far this season, he does own a very respectable 3.96 ERA in front of the home town crowd (is also 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA in all day games.) 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Castillo has another long afternoon ahead of him. Great price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) (4:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (6-6, 3.68 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Freeland would go on to post 15 swinging strikes and eight K’s overall. To go along with his 1.24 WHIP, note that Freeland owns the very respectable 3.99 ERA on the road.

The home side goes with Mike Minor (4-4, 5.65 ERA) who most recently gave up three earned runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no decision against Houston Saturday. Note that it was Minor’s first quality start though since May 3rd. Also note that he’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in all day games this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is 22-16 (+12.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is only 13-23 (-9.2 units) at home.

All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. Great value, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-4, 2.97 ERA) who was most recently rocked for five runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Saturday. Arrieta has now allowed ten runs over his last two starts and things aren’t going to get any easier for the veteran in this tough venue tonight.

The home side counters with Brent Suter (6-4, 4.61) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with five K’s in a win over these very Phillies on Saturday. Suter has been getting progressively better of late and I look for the southpaw to carry that momentum over here.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 13-19 (-4 units) on the road this season, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) at home so far.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I actually feel that this line could be a lot higher. Great value, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST).

Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, but that said I absolutely feel that Jose Urena and the hungry Marlins have much more than just a “punchers chance” in the opener of this interleague series.

Urena (1-8, 4.59 ERA) has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate so far this season. Most recently Urena gave up three runs off six hits with no walk and five K’s over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Sunday. 

It was the second time in his last seven starts that he’s avoided giving up a walk and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.94 ERA in all night games to this point as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.58) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Saturday. Previous to that decent outing Gausman had been rocked for 13 runs spanning eight innings. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.71 ERA at home.

I think Urena’s under-the-radar progression carries over here in this favorable interleague contest, while recent form displayed by Gausman suggests that he’s in line for another long night.

Great value on the underdog in this one. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I believe that this line could in fact be a lot larger, considering the talent discrepancy, both on the mound and at the plate.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.65 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. Performances like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez, who still owns the sharp 2.65 ERA, to go along with a super 1.31 WHIP and a 75/32 K/W over 74.2 innings of work.

Note as well that Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.33) who gave up two runs over six innings with four walks in a no-decision against the Orioles on Saturday. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, note that Gonzalez also has a 1.50 WHIP and just 58 K’s over 72.2 innings of work.

Note as well that Sanchez is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA at home this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is a super 22-16 (+2.9 units) this season in all night games, while Toronto is just 17-22 (-6.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Plays is on the Tampa Bay Rays (8*) (7:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this case, I believe that the red hot Blake Snell and the hungry Rays have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. 

Snell (8-3, 2.30 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out one over six innings in a victory over Seattle on Saturday. Snell’s current numbers rank him among the best in the American League right now and note that he’s 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA in all night games this year.

The home side counters with Domingo German (0-4, 5.32) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. 

German has impressive strikeout numbers, but note that he’s still 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all night games this season.

As mentioned off the top, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. And when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Snell is going to be able to carry over his momentum, while all signs point to the Yanks stumbling with German on the mound and after their highly publicized interleague series that finished with the Nationals yesterday.

Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (2:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.31 ERA) who gave up two earned runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Saturday. 

Clevinger though has been as solid as Cleveland could possibly ask for this season and he has to be feeling confident here as he’s already a sharp 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Rodon (0-1, 3.60) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Boston in his season debut on Saturday. 

Rodon looked decent with seven K’s, but clearly the sample size is just too small to get an accurate read on the southpaw to this point. Note though that he was 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in all day games last season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is already 17-11 (+2.5 units) in all day games this year, while Chicago is already just 8-24 (-14 units) in all day games.

All things considered, I think this line could in fact be much larger. That swings the value to the under-priced favorite. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (4-6, 4.33 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Of his 13 starts this year, Mahle has now completed six frames just five times. Note that he owns a 2-3, 4.79 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.12) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Athletics on Thursday. 

Hammel has looked a lot better of late, allowing just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings and I think the veteran carries that momentum over here into another solid outing.

Neither team or starter instills much confidence, but recent form displayed by Hammel suggests that he’s about to “get off the schneid” in a big way tonight. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I believe that Matt Boyd and the hungry home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup on their home field.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (7-5, 3.66 ERA) who looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after allowing two earned runs over nine innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Thursday. 

Berrios has for the most part been as solid as Minnesota could possibly ask for, but note that he does enter with a sub-par 2-3, 4.55 ERA on the road to this point.

Boyd (4-4, 3.20) comes in off a strong outing himself, giving up two earned runs off four hits, while striking out six over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Thursday. Note that Boyd has been especially tough on the opposition at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is a horrible 11-17 (-5.4 units) on the road this season, while Detroit is 21-16 (+11.4 units) at home. 

Everything points to a minor upset. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

I think the Giants will salvage the final game of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (2-4, 5.06 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Nationals on Friday. While his ERA is clearly nothing to write home about, note that he does own a sharp 47/9 K/W over 48 innings and his opposition is hitting only .256 off him.

The home side counters with Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.70) who gave up four hits over 5.1 scoreless innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Friday. 

Smith has been solid this season, but note that the Marlins are a poor 7-11 (-2.1 units) this year against southpaws, while San Fran is 13-12 (+3.8 units) in the same position.

I look for the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe that this line should in fact be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-1, 1.57 ERA) who struck out eight and walked two in a loss to the Yankees on Friday, in the end giving up three runs over eight innings of work. To go along with his sharp 1.57 ERA, note that DeGrom also sports an elite 1.01 WHIP (additionally note that he’s been at his best on the road so far with a 2-0, 1.57 ERA record thus far.)

The home side counters with Mike Soroka (1-1, 3.68) who returns to the rotation after a short stint on the DL. The 20-year old made two minor-league re-hab starts and he has been given the green light to go on Wednesday afternoon.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Soroka comes into this one with question marks still concerning his health, while DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the entire league right now.

All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

I feel that the hard-throwing Lance McCullers and the defending champs could in fact be a lot larger favorites in this particular matchup.

McCullers (7-3, 3.94 ERA) gave up two earned runs off four hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. McCullers has to be feeling confident here that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s already dominated the A’s twice this year, giving up two runs while striking out ten over 12 innings of work.

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (6-5, 3.45) who gave up six runs off five hits and three walks with three K’s over four innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. Of the five hits Mengden allowed, four were home runs. 

I’ll point out as well that Houston is 22-10 (+3.6 units) this year against the division, while Oakland is just 10-21 (-12.3 units) against divisional foes.

Recent form displayed by Mengden suggests that McCullers is the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) (9:40 EST).

Here’s another one in which I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, who was fortunate to earn a no-decision against the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up four runs off four hits and two walks over three innings while striking out only two. Williams comes into this one struggling across the board, having allowed at least four runs in five of his last six outings. 

The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (1-1, 1.88) who gave up two earned runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings against San Francisco on Wednesday. Note that it was his third straight quality start and he now owns a sharp 21/3 K/W and a 94.9 percent strand rate. 

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is already a poor 2-9 (-5.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona is already a strong 10-6 (+1.7 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I like Buchholz to continue his progression, while recent form displayed by Williams suggests that he has another long night ahead of him here. Great value, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Adam Plutko (3-0, 3.93 ERA), who has posted a sharp 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and 12/5 K/W over 18.1 innings for the Tribe this year. He faced the White Sox in his latest victory back on May 28th and was rocked for five runs over five innings, but the rookie was staked to an early insurmountable lead and he’d aggressively pepper the strike zone after that, which contributed to the higher runs allowed in that one.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-7, 4.92) who was rocked for seven earned runs off eight hits (including three home runs) in a loss to the Twins on Thursday. Shields has for the most part been a big disappointment once again this season and he comes into this one sporting a poor 57/33 K/W over 82.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 19-10 (+2 units) against teams with losing records, while Chicago is a horrible 7-20 (-7 units) against teams with winning records this year.

This is a matchup which highly favors the hard-hitting visiting side and this line could easily be larger. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be ruled out as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and seven walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Philadelphia on Thursday. Chatwood would need 107 pitches to post just 14 outs and he now sports an atrocious 53/56 K/W over 58.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Anderson comes into this one with a lackluster 43/26 K/W, but note that he’s been solid in all night games with a 4-2, 3.98 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is a poor 34-38 (-5.8 units) in its last 72 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Milwaukee is already 18-11 (+6.8 units) this season in front of the home town crowd.

Chatwood’s inconsistencies come back to bite him here and Anderson does just enough to secure the victory for the home side. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.12 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Tuesday, going nine scoreless while walking one and striking out four. Heaney is limiting his opposition to a .218 batting average and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns an elite 58/19 K/W over 60.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 2.94) who gave up three runs off seven hits and three walks over four innings in a fortune no-decision against the Astros on Wednesday. LeBlanc has been decent in his limited time as a starter (expected to move back to the bullpen shortly), but I think the book is still out on the southpaw, as the sample size simply remains too small at this point to get a completely accurate read.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Heaney should be able to continue his mid-season progression, while everything points to another long-night for LeBlanc.

All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I think that Junior Guerra and the hard-hitting home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Previous to this strong outing though, Quintana had been rocked for four runs over 4.1 innings. 

Guerra (3-4, 2.83) comes in off his third straight quality start most recently allowing three runs off seven hits with one walk over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, also going on to strike out five. Over his last three outings Guerra has posted a sparkling 15/1 K/W and suffice it to say I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over here. 

Milwaukee dropped its finale against Philadelphia yesterday, but it’s definitely woken up at the plate of late. Chicago has struggled with offensive consistency and I think that comes back to bite it again here as well.

Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this matchup.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Steven Wright (2-0, 1.57 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Detroit on Tuesday, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out six over seven scoreless in the victory. 

Wright is expected to see extended time in the rotation with Drew Pomeranz out with injury and note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in all night contests thus far as a starter.

The home side counters with the volatile Dylan Bundy (4-7, 4.04) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing three hits and three walks over seven scoreless. Bundy has looked better of late after a stretch of futility, but he’s still just 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA at home and an atrocious 1-6 with a ballooned 7.68 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that Boston is 36-14 (+14.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 11-30 (-18.4 units) in the same position. 

I like Wright to at the very least match pace with the improving Bundy, but for the Red Sox’ big bats to do the rest. All things considered, a great price. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Braves (4:10 EST).

Atlanta held on for a 5-3 win last night and I think it offers great value as an underdog on Sunday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (7-1, 2.49 ERA), who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently going six scoreless while striking out four in a victory over San Diego on Tuesday. 

So far the southpaw has posted scoreless outings five times this year, going at least six frames in each of those. Note that Newcomb’s .201 batting average ties him for fourth best in the NL. I’ll also point out that he’s been at his best on the road with a 5-0, 1.79 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-1, 1.52) who comes in off a strong outing as well, going five scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. Over his last six starts Stripling has allowed just five runs.

I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are a poor 2-7 in their last nine after scoring three runs or less in their previous outing, while Atlanta is 15-5 (+13.6 units) in all day games.

LA has struggled with offensive consistency of late and I think Newcomb will take advantage. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 3:10 EST.

I had a free play on the Diamondbacks last night and they’d come from behind in the latter frames for a convincing 12-7 victory over the sliding Rockies and in my opinion, all signs point to another victory in Game 3 for the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Godley (5-5, 5.12 ERA) who will look to return to form after allowing seven runs off five hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Giants on Monday. 

Godley has struggled of late, but he does have the track record and pedigree to get things turned around. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (6-5, 3.48), who gave up three runs off nine hits and a walk over 6.2 innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. 

Freeland has looked decent of late, but I’ll point out that his team is now just 11-18 (-12.6 units) this year at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 15-8 (+8.8 units) this year against left-handed starters.

Momentum can be a very real, almost tangible factor at times and the Diamondbacks enter this one with a lot of it. I like Godley to bounce back and for Arizona to build off yesterday’s win.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 1:35 EST.

The Phillies have lost back-to-back games against the Brewers in blowout fashion, but I think they’ll bounce back in the final contest of this three-game series.

The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 6.05 ERA) who is being called up from the minors to make this spot start. Woodruff has split time as a reliever and starter in a few appearances this season for the Brewers, but he’s so far struggled on the road with a ballooned 7.30 ERA.

The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.74), who comes in off a dominant effort over the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing one run off eight hits and a walk while striking out two over 7.2 innings in the eventual victory on Tuesday. 

Eflin has to be feeling confident that he can build off that performance, as so far he’s been solid at home with a 3.97 ERA.

I think the Brewers leave town satisfied to take two of three, well everything points to the home side salvaging the final game in this favorable matchup on the mound. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:10 EST).

The Cards held on for a 6-4 win yesterday afternoon and I think they offer ridiculous value in this matchup as well.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Carlos Martinez (3-2, 1.83 ERA) who returned from the DL against the Marlins on Tuesday, allowing two runs off four hits while striking out five over four innings in what turned out to be a shaky no-decision. 

With that awkward start under his belt though, I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to get back on track and continue his progression. Note that Martinez is a stellar 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Anthony Desclafani (0-1, 7.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Tuesday. It was his first major league start since September 28th, 2016 and suffice it to say, further regression/struggles appear imminent in this tough matchup.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis has dominated in this spot all year, going 7-3 (+3.2 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati has been an absolute train wreck by going 1-7 (-5.7 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (8*) 1:10 EST.

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Clayton Richard (4-6, 4.67 ERA) who allowed three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Richard has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road though with a 2-3, 6.26 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Jose Urena (1-7, 4.60) who finally got off the schneid with a victory against the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing four runs and a walk while striking out three over five innings. Urena’s win/loss record is not indicative of his overall performance this season and I think he’s going to build off his first win.

I’ll point out as well that Miami is now 4-1 in its last five against clubs with losing records, while San Diego is just 11-13 in the same position overall this season.

I look for Miami to bounce back after yesterday’s close 5-4 defeat. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I had a play on the red hot Mariners last night and I believe they offer great value as a slight dog on Saturday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-4, 5.33 ERA) who comes in off a gem against these very Rays on Sunday, scattering five hits over eight frames and striking out seven with one walk.

While his ERA is nothing to write home about, his 62/29 K/W is more than acceptable and his 4.01 ERA in all night contests is decent as well.

The home side counters with Blake Snell (7-3, 2.36) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mariners, giving up two hits and striking out 12 with a walk over six innings. Snell has been fantastic this season and he seems to be getting better with every start. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, but after going 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year, regression at some point does seem imminent.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is already a superb 13-8 (+1.3 units) against southpaws this year, while Tampa is just 18-23 (-6.7 units) against right-handed starters.

I think that the Mariners continue to build momentum and I look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST).

I like the Phillies to bounce back at home this afternoon after yesterday’s setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (5-4, 4.55 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Suter has looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still owns a poor 5.01 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (5-3, 2.66) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five earned runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out four over six frames in a setback to San Francisco on Sunday. 

Arrieta has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in this spot though, as note that not only is he 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA in all night games this season, but he’s also 3-0 with a minuscule 0.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Yesterday’s humbling loss, combined with Arrieta’s dominance at home do indeed make Philadelphia the correct call in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

I like the Jays to build off yesterday’s victory.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.63 ERA) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. Gausman has now given up 12 earned runs over his last two starts and note that he’s struggled in this spot all season by going 0-2 with a 4.54 ERA on the road and an atrocious 1-3 with a ballooned 7.99 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.48) who gave up one run off two hits with three walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over the Tigers on Sunday. This was easily Sanchez’s best start of the year and I believe he’s going to carry that momentum over into this one.

I’ll point out additionally that Baltimore is a terrible 11-29 (-17.4 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Clearly the Yankees have the more powerful lineup, but for this particular selection I am indeed putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers.

One of these starters has been absolutely dominant from Day 1 this year, while the other continues to scuffle along, the beneficiary of great run support. Suffice it to say, I think Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.79 ERA) who earned a win against the Orioles despite giving up four runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings. Tanaka was “lucky” to receive a victory as he’d give up three solo home runs in that one. Note that he’s now given up nine homers over his last 26.2 innings of work and he’ll come into this one with a poor 2.0 HR/9. 

Also note that Tanaka has struggled with his consistency, as he’s completed just six innings once in his last five starts. And finally take note, while he does have a 5-0 record on the road, he owns an uninspiring 5.17 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Saturday, allowing one run off seven hits with two walks while striking out 13 over seven innings. 

To go along with his elite ERA, DeGrom also owns a superb 1.04 WHIP and a spectacular 98/21 K/W over 72.1 innings of work. Also note that he’s been very sharp at home with a 2-0, 1.42 ERA record thus far.

Ultimately I think that Tanaka’s issues with the home run ball and longevity come back to bite him, while I look for DeGrom to finally get some support for once.

All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST).

Seattle has been rolling of late and I look for it to carry that momentum over on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Marco Gonzalez (6-3, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off a third straight winning decision, giving up one run off five hits with two walks while striking out six over 6.2 innings against these very Rays on Saturday. Note that Gonzalez has now allowed one earned run spanning his last 26 innings of work. Additionally note that Gonzalez has been extremely solid on the road this season with a 4-2, 3.48 ERA record.

The home side counters with Wilmer Font (0-2, 9.78) who went two scoreless innings in a win over the A’s on Wednesday. Font has been given the green light to start this one as well, but note that he’ll only be in line for one or two innings of work. Additionally note that over his last five appearances he’s gone seven innings total, while posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with four K’s and five walks.

Font’s inability to go deep into this one is a big time detriment to the home team and I believe it opens the door for the surging Gonzalez and the red hot visiting side.

Lay the price, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors turn to David Hess (2-2, 3.47 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. Hess has looked decent, but clearly he draws a tough matchup on the road North of the border.

The home side goes with Jaime Garcia (2-4, 6.08), who comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, allowing four runs off seven hits over just 1.2 innings of work. 

Garcia has struggled for the most part this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home with a 1-1, 3.43 ERA record.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is a poor 2-7 in its last nine after shutting out an opponent in its previous game (just beat the Mets 1-0 yesterday.) Also note that Toronto is 6-2 in its last eight after failing to score more than two or more runs in its previous outing.

I think Hess takes a step back here and I look for Garcia to settle down in front of the home town crowd.

Lay the price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Dennis Santana (1-0, 12.27 ERA) who made his big league debut at Coors Field on Saturday and who was promptly blasted for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings of relief. Santana is expected to stay in the rotation until one of the other starters returns from injury.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (3-4, 3.97), who comes in off a strong outing against the Cardinals on Friday, striking out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in the victory. To go along with his respectable ERA, Taillon also owns a sharp 1.16 WHIP and decent 60/18 K/W over 65.2 innings of work. 

Note as well that Taillon is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

Recent form displayed by Taillon suggests that he’s in line for another productive outing here. Santana though looks poised for another “blow-up.” 

All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I think that Jake Odorizzi should in fact be a much larger fav in this particular matchup.

I don’t normally lay juice of this size, but in this one I’m making an exception.

The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (1-2, 5.10 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with five walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Friday. 

Note that Santiago is 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA in all night games as well this year.

Odorizzi (3-2, 4.14) also comes in off an outing to forget, getting rocked for eight runs off seven hits while striking out three and walking two in a setback to the Indians on Thursday. 

It was a horrible start, but I’m not going to read too much into one sub-par outing. Note that Odorizzi had given up just five earned runs over 27.1 innings previous to that “dud.” 

And a date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.90 in friendly confines thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is already a poor 7-14 (-7.4 units) against the division, while Minnesota is 11-6 (+4.6 units) in the same position.

Lay the price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think the revenge-minded Reds offer great value after yesterday’s setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (5-6, 5.68 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits with three walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. Gray has been a disaster of late, allowing 22 runs over his past four starts and failing to complete the fourth inning in two of those. Note that he’s a poor 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Sal Romano (3-6, 6.00) who comes in off a win against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Wednesday, giving up four runs off seven hits while striking out three over five innings of work. Romano did not issue a free pass for the first time all season and I think he’s going to carry that momentum over here. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 4-7 in its last 11 after scoring nine or more runs in its previous outing, while Cincinnati is 7-5 in its last 12 after allowing nine or more runs.

I’m banking on Romano building off his last outing, while recent form suggests that Gray is once again in over his head on the road tonight.

Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Yanks hand the ball to Sonny Gray (4-4, 5.50 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off four hits while striking out six over six innings in the eventual victory. Admittedly Gray has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s been far better on the road (2-2, 3.67) than at home (2-2, 7.22.) 

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 3.32) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Gaviglio has now given up two home runs in two straight starts. Note that Gaviglio is expected to move back to the bullpen with the imminent return of Marcus Stroman. 

Additionally I’ll point out that New York is 5-2 in its last seven after scoring seven or more runs its previous outing, while Toronto is just 2-6 in its last eight after allowing seven or more runs.

Look for New York to build off its convincing victory on Tuesday and lay this price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (3-7, 4.46 ERA) who gave up three runs off 11 hits and struck out four over six innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Over his last 28 innings of work Bundy has given up ten runs off 20 hits, including six home runs over that stretch. 

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.14) who gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. To go along with his poor ERA, Wheeler owns a more respectable 1.48 WHIP to go along with 57 K’s over 56 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is a sub-par 10-13 (-4.8 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while New York is 10-7 (+1.7 units) in the same position.

I’m banking on Wheeler settling down here at home and for Bundy to come up short in this tough venue. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (4-1, 3.13 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and four walks with five K’s over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Rangers on Wednesday. Paxton is now 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 3.65) who gave up four runs off seven hits with seven K’s over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Wednesday. Keuchel has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but the southpaw will now be looking to improve upon his pedestrian 1-3, 4.06 ERA home record.

I’ll point out though that Seattle is a poor 1-4 (-3.2 units) in its last five after three-game unbeaten streak, while Houston is 5-2 (+2.3 units) in its last seven following a loss.

I think Keuchel gets back on track here and finds a way finally to get back into the winners circle. Great line value, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST).

As good as Pirates’ pitcher Joe Musgrove has been in the early going, I think he’ll finally meet his match against the Dodgers and Ross Stripling this evening.

Stripling (3-1, 1.68 ERA) comes in off another strong outing against the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing one run off four hits and two walks over seven innings while striking seven in the eventual victory. Stripling now has 28 strikeouts over his last three starts and overall he has a 40/4 K/W and 1.24 ERA over 29 May innings of work. 

Musgrove (2-0, 0.64) most recently gave up one run off seven hits with four walks over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Musgrove was 7-8 with a 4.77 ERA with Houston last year and while his early numbers for the Pirates are obviously impressive, I think that regression is imminent, sooner rather than later. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is already 17-10 (+2.5 units) this season following a victory, while Pittsburgh is just 14-15 (-2.5 units) following a loss. 

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST).

I think that Nate Eovaldi can match Max Scherzer inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog in this matchup.

Eovaldi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) made his season debut against the A’s last Wednesday after returning from Tommy John surgery and was beyond “brilliant,” giving up one walk over six no-hit frames of work. Eovaldi’s fast-ball reached 100.2 MPH and he averaged 98.5. His splitter averaged 89.9 MPH and it included three swinging strikes on just 13 offerings. 

The home side counters with ace Scherzer (9-1, 1.92) who went eight scoreless against the Orioles on Wednesday, striking out 12 and walking one in the victory. Previous to that he’d give up four runs off seven hits over six innings against the light-hitting Marlins.

Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about Scherzer, so I won’t even bother trying. But as stated off the top, I do believe that the hard-throwing Eovaldi is going to bring something to the table that the hard-hitting Nationals have yet to see this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Rays have been decent on the road for bettors this year, going 17-16 (+3 units), while the Nationals have been horrible at home, going 12-14 (-9.6 units).

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST).

A couple of suddenly hot teams collide in the opener of this three-game set, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Arizona hands the ball to Zack Godley (5-4, 4.38 ERA) who struck out seven and walked two over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Godley has for the most part struggled this year, but he’d come through with possibly his best outing of the season in this one. Note as well that Godley has been at his best in all “night” contests this year with a 5-2, 3.15 ERA record.

The home side counters with Derek Holland (3-6, 4.94) who most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Rockies on Wednesday. 

Like his counterpart tonight, Holland has been average at best this year; note that he’s just 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” contests.

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Arizona is a sharp 17-10 (+7.6 units) this season against teams with losing records, while San Francisco is just 15-20 (-2.3 units) against clubs with winning records.

I like Godley to out duel his counterpart and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to do the rest. Great value, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (2:10 EST).

I think the hard-hitting visiting side will bounce back here after yesterday’s 7-1 defeat.

The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.14 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off four hits with two walks while posting seven K’s over 6.2 innings of work. Clevinger has been arguably the most consistent starter in the rotation for the Indians and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP with 61 K’s over 71.2 innings of work (also note that he’s been at his best on the road this season with a 2-1, 1.61 ERA record.) 

The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-3, 3.57) who went seven scoreless against the light-hitting Royals on Tuesday. Gibson has for the most part been as solid as the Twins could possible ask for, but it’s definitely interesting to note that while he’s so far posted a career best 9.4 K/9, he also owns a career worst 4.0 BB/9 at this point (and note that he’s 0-2 with a ballooned 5.76 ERA at home.) 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is already 15-8 (+2.8 units) in all “day” games this year, while Minnesota is just 8-10 (-3.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST).

The Blue Jays were swept by the Red Sox in a three-game series and if they don’t get their act together, they’re going to get swept by the Tigers as well. 

However, I do in fact believe that Toronto will finally step up here and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez (2-5, 4.77 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Monday, allowing seven runs off nine hits with one walk over five innings. Sanchez was sharp over five starts in April (3.66 ERA spanning 32 frames), but he’d come undone in May by posting a 5.96 ERA (spanning 22.2 innings.) Like the rest of his team, Sanchez will be eager to “right the ship” in the June.

The home side counters with the volatile Michael Fulmer (2-4, 4.60) who was rocked for five runs off six hits with four walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to LA on Tuesday, managing just one K.

Fulmer has now allowed multiple homers in three of his last five starts. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.02 ERA at home as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is still 8-4 (+4.3 units) this season when on the road with a money line set between -125 and +125, while Detroit is just 45-52 (-8.9 units) in its last 97 at home when the money line is set in the same price range.

Desperation breeds motivation and winning can lead to complacency. I expect the “hungrier” team to come out on top Sunday. 

Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (10:05 EST).

I think that Vince Velasquez offers great value in this spot.

Velasquez (4-5, 4.08 ERA) comes in off a strong outing against the Dodgers on Monday, allowing two runs off three hits with two walks and six K’s over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. 

Note that Velasquez is now definitely “hitting his stride,” as he’s allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Note as well that the hard-throwing right-hander sports a sharp 3.06 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Andrew Suarez (1-4, 5.65) who gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Monday. Suarez has shown flashes of his potential, but his 1.7 HR/9 over 36.2 innings of work points to further regression sooner, rather than later in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is a sharp 10-5 (+5.2 units) against southpaws this year, while San Fran is a horrible 13-21 (-7 units) against right-handed starters. 

As mentioned off the top, I think this is great value on the superior pitcher. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (8:40 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors turn to the polarizing Matt Harvey (1-3, 5.63 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off nine hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. Harvey has been better for Cincinnati than he was for the Mets, but note that he’s still a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Eric Lauer (1-3, 7.67) who gave up five runs off seven hits with three K’s over just 2.1 innings in a loss to the Marlins on Monday. Lauer has struggled with consistency as well this year, but note that the Padres are 5-2 (+3.5 units) in their last seven at home with a money line that’s set between +125 to -125.

Conversely note that the Reds are a poor 3-7 (-3.8 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set in the same range. 

I like Lauer to get back on track here and I expect Harvey’s road struggles to continue. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (7:15 EST).

Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to starting pitching. I think that German Marquez and the hard-hitting home side offer great value in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (3-1, 2.20 ERA) who gave up one earned run over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Padres on Sunday. The rookie has been sharp thus far, but clearly he has a tough task ahead of him tonight.

Marquez (4-5, 4.21) gave up one earned run off five hits with two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. Marquez had a 10.34 ERA in four home starts previous to that gem, but the hard-throwing right-hander got back on track in a big way after that performance. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is just 14-23 (-23.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Colorado is 19-15 (+6.1 units) in the same position.

As mentioned off the top, the value is simply too great to turn down here. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Mets (7:15 EST).

I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 7-4 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (1-1, 4.35) who picked up a victory in his first official start of the year on Monday, going 5.2 scoreless against the Pirates. Montgomery had posted a 5.33 ERA in all appearances previous to that though, so to say I’m not reading too much into a single decent effort would be an understatement. 

The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.52) who comes in off a no-decision against the Braves on Monday, giving up one run off five hits and three walks with eight K’s over seven innings. 

DeGrom has been “lights out” across the board this year, especially at home where he’s 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago is just 32-38 (-7.8 units) in its last 70 on the road when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while New York is 5-2 (+1.3 units) this season when the money line in the contest is the same.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:10 EST).

I think the Nationals will bounce back here off their 4-0 defeat last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.10 ERA) who comes in off a second straight victory, going 7.2 scoreless and striking out three against the Orioles on Monday. 

Over 11 starts the hard-throwing southpaw has posted the elite 2.10 ERA to go along with a sharp 63/28 K/W spanning 64.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 5.02) who gave up five runs off nine hits with two K’s over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Mets on Monday. McCarthy has looked great at times this year, but very horrible in others. Note that he sports a poor 6.04 ERA at home thus far.

Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is 6-2 in its last eight after getting shutout in its previous contest, while Atlanta is just 2-5 in its last seven after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing.

In my opinion, this line could easily be larger. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Elieser Hernandez (0-2, 2.50 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with no walks and three K’s over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Over 18 innings Hernandez has given up five earned runs. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but clearly the sample size is way too small to make a proper judgement and there’s no question that he draws a tough matchup on the road in this one.

The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (0-1, 1.64) who comes in off a hard-luck loss against the A’s on Saturday, giving up one run off two hits with zero walks while striking out three over six innings. Over two starts Buchholz has now allowed just two runs.

Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence obviously, but I’ll point out though that the Marlins are a poor 2-7 (-3.4 units) in their last nine as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the D-Backs are a solid 6-3 (+2.4 units) in their last nine as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (6-4, 3.13 ERA) who went five scoreless in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. Strasburg has once again been as solid as the Nationals could hope for this year and it’s hard to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander, so I’m not going to bother. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (4-3, 2.55) who also comes in off a gem, giving up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Sunday. To go along with his solid ERA, Foltynewicz also sports a sharp 1.28 WHIP and 69 K’s over 60 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is a solid 22-12 (+11.8 units) against its division this year, while Washington is just 4-6 (-2.4 units) in its last ten against divisional foes

For all the reasons listed above, play the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 EST).

After the Tigers beat up on the Angels this week, I think the home side comes out flat in the opener of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Jamie Garcia (2-3, 5.52 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Philadelphia on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits with zero walks and five K’s over seven frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Garcia only needed 73 pitches to get through the dominant effort, 52 of which were strikes. 

The home side counters with Blaine Hardy (1-0, 2.70) who comes in off a win against the light-hitting White Sox on Sunday, giving up one run off three hits with one walk over seven innings. Hardy has looked decent in his limited time in the rotation, but he’s expected to head back to the bullpen shortly with Jordan Zimmermann returning from injury. 

I’ll point out additionally that Toronto is already 4-2 (+1.5 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses and 11-8 (+1.2 units) against teams with losing records, while Detroit is just 14-17 (-1 unit) against clubs with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (8:10 EST).

Clearly Lance McCullers has the advantage on the mound tonight, but I think that the surging Red Sox offer great value in this upset spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 6.75 ERA) who will look to get back on track after allowing 12 runs over his last 11.1 innings of work. Manager Alex Cora most recently remarked: 

"He struggled against lefties, and it wasn't a great day for him, but we trust this guy. He was in the same spot last year, all of a sudden he turned it around. He'll go to Houston Thursday and make adjustments the next few days and see if it works out.” 

McCullers (6-3, 3.98) was most recently rocked for seven runs off six hits (including three dingers) with two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Tribe on Saturday. 

Both pitchers are coming off “duds,” but the value is simply too good to turn down here with the red hot Red Sox. Note that Boston is already 6-2 this year after scoring six or more runs in its previous contest (won 6-4 at home over the Jays on Wednesday), while Houston is just 2-4 in its last six after three or more consecutive road games.

Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think that this one favors Clayton Richard and the home side.

The visitors turn to Jose Urena (0-7, 4.69 ERA) who comes in off a strong start against the hard-hitting Nationals on Friday, allowing four runs while striking out seven with one walk over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Urena though has been a train-wreck on the road this year by going 0-1 with a 6.06 ERA thus far.

Richard (3-6, 4.97) gave up four runs off four hits in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday, striking out four and walking three over six innings. Previous to that sub-par effort though Richard had thrown three straight quality starts, striking out 20 with just one walk spanning 23.1 innings of work. Note that Richard is also holding his opposition to a respectable .266 batting average, while also sporting a career best 7.5 K/9.

I think Richard continues his progression, while recent form by Urena suggests he has another long night ahead of him.

All things considered, a great price. Play on San Diego.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST).

Coors Field is the ultimate equalizer for pitchers. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, suffice it to say, I think that Derek Holland and the Giants have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Holland (2-6, 4.73 ERA) most recently gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits over six frames in a loss to the Cubs on Friday, striking out six and walking two. Holland has been competitive this season and note that he does own a decent 3.99 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Jon Gray (5-6, 5.40) who earned a win last time out despite giving up four runs off six hits with three walks over six innings against Cincinnati on Friday. Gray has decent strikeout numbers, but like his counterpart tonight, he continues to be susceptible to the long-ball. Note that he owns a 6.03 ERA at Coors thus far as well.

I had a play on Colorado last night (my GAME OF THE WEEK), and it came through with the goods. However, I’ll point out that San Francisco is still 7-6 (4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Colorado is just 1-2 (-1.4 units) this season as a home fav in the same price range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST).

I think the Cubs will build off their 8-6 win last night. I had a play on Chicago yesterday and after going down early, it managed to put together a couple of big innings in the middle.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.16 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over seven frames in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. 

Hendricks has looked sharp of late with 19 K’s over his last 18 innings of work and note that he’s been especially good in all “night” games this year with a 3-1, 3.03 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00) who gave up five hits over seven scoreless while striking out seven with no walks in his season debut against the Pirates on Friday. 

It was an awesome start for Musgrove, but clearly regression is imminent (note that he owns a 4.52 lifetime ERA over 171.1 innings of work.) 

I like Hendricks to continue his steady progression, while I fully expect Musgrove to take a step back after his brilliant, albeit unsustainable start. Great value, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 EST).

Alex Reyes has been on fire in Triple-A during his re-hab, but I still think he’s getting too much respect in his first call up to the big leagues.

Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) would post 44 K’s over 23 innings during his re-hab assignment for the Cards. Clearly the sky is the limit for Reyes, but I think he draws an incredibly tough matchup here on the road.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98) who comes in off a no-decision against the Mets on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings. The hard-throwing right-hander would throw 52 of his 72 pitches for strikes, but a blown save in the ninth cost him the victory.

Guerra comes in with a solid 3.71 ERA at home thus far.

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 7-12 (-5.9 units) this year on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 17-10 (+7 units) at home.

Great value, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

I had a play on the Rockies yesterday and I’m back on the horse again on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jeff Samardzija (1-3, 6.23 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off four hits with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Astros on Wednesday. Note that the veteran has had more K’s than walks in just two starts this year and to go along with his horrible ERA, he also sports a poor 25/23 K/W and 1.64 WHIP over 34.2 innings of work.

And unfortunately for “The Shark,” a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s just 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA away from friendly confines so far this year.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (4-5, 3.28) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks with three K’s over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. 

Freeland has now posted six straight quality efforts and note that he’s been unbelievably effective at Coors Field so far with a 2-1, 1.40 ERA record.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Samardzija is once again “in over his head” in this matchup. This line could easily be larger in my opinion, indeed swinging the value to the home side.

Lay the price, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

The Tigers upset the Angels yesterday afternoon and I think the home side will come out on top on Tuesday night as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Tropeano (2-3, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk over 7.1 innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Thursday. In his previous outing though Tropeano failed to make it out of the third inning against the Rays. Note as well that Tropeano is just 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.33 ERA in all “night” games so far this year.

The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (2-3, 4.08) who comes in off his strongest start of the season, giving up one run off four hits with five K’s over 5.2 innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Twins on Tuesday. Fulmer has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as well, as note that he owns a very respectable 3.91 ERA at home thus far this year.

I’m banking on Fulmer out-lasting his inconsistent counterpart and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Great value, play on the Tigers.

Good luck..Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST).

I like the Cubs to build off their 7-0 win yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (4-2, 2.37 ERA) who comes in off a tough luck loss, allowing one run off six hits while striking out four over seven innings against the Tribe on Wednesday. Note that Lester has been sharp on the road with a 2-1, 2.93 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Nick Kingham (2-1, 3.44) who has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis to make this start due to an injury to Ivan Nova. So far he’s posted the 3.44 ERA over three starts in the big leagues, but note that he’s 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA in all “night” contests.

I’ve seen enough from the veteran Lester to pretty much know we can depend on another solid outing from him here. Lester is throwing in a pitcher friendly park against a team which struggles with offensive consistency from game-to-game.

The sample size is simply too small to get an accurate read on Kingham quite yet though. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Great value, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

I think New York will bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.04 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking three over six innings in a victory over the Indians on Thursday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Morton obviously, as he leads the AL in wins right now and overall he’s been on complete fire. Regression though does seem imminent I believe and there’s no question that he’s facing a stiff task tonight against the Yanks’ power line-up.

The home side counters with CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.55) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Wednesday, allowing seven runs off six hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the resurgent veteran the last two years, so I’m not going to read too much into that one shaky outing. Note as well that Sabathia has to be feeling pretty confident that he can make an immediate bounce back here as he’s 1-0 with a 2.59 ERA at home thus far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Houston is already just 1-4 (-3.6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while New York is 20-8 (+4.4 units) at home.

I look for the revenge minded and hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on the Yanks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8:10 EST).

I think Vince Velasquez and the Phillies have much more than just a “punchers chance” against the Dodgers on the road tonight.

Velasquez (4-5, 4.18 ERA) gave up two runs (just one earned) off six hits while striking out nine over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Velasquez has been far from perfect this year, but he’s been solid enough and note that he does in fact rank eighth overall in the NL with 64 K’s thus far. Also note that he’s been solid in this spot all season with a 3.04 ERA on the road and a 3.44 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Brock Stewart (0-0, 3.72) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out one over four innings in a spot start on Tuesday against the Rockies. The decent performance earned Stewart another start in the rotation with Rich Hill still sidelined with injury. Clearly the book is still out on Brock though, as the sample size is clearly too small to this point.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is already 20-16 (+2 units) this season against right-handed starters, while LA is just 12-21 (-22.3 units) in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Colorado Rockies (7:10 EST).

I had a 10* Las Vegas Insider release on the Rockies yesterday and they’d go on to smash the Reds easily.

I believe that the home side offers great value in the opener of this three game series with the Giants as well.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Andrew Suarez (1-4, 5.68 ERA), who most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to Houston on Tuesday. Suarez would go on to throw just 37 of his 68 pitches for strikes and over his last three starts he’s now conceded 14 earned runs while walking five spanning 14 frames of work. Go to along with his poor ERA, Suarez is also allowing the opposition to hit a whopping .303 off him. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road as well by going just 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Chad Bettis (4-1, 3.30) who gave up two runs off three hits and three walks while striking out four over five innings in a  5-3 loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. 

Bettis sports decent numbers (39/22 K/W), and note that he’s 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA in all “night” contests so far this year.

I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 15-17 (-1.8 units) in all night games this year, while Colorado is 21-14 (+7.7 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I think that this line could easily be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon.

Both teams come in off losses, with the Reds falling in Colorado yesterday afternoon and the Diamondbacks falling at the A’s.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Homer Bailey (1-6, 6.21 ERA) who gave up four runs off ten hits with three walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday. Bailey has been a disaster so far this season, sporting the ballooned ERA to go along with a poor 35/23 K/W over 58 innings of work.

The home side counters with Matt Koch (2-3, 3.77) who gave up one run off three hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Koch retired his first 11 opponents and had a shutout going until the sixth frame. To go along with his solid ERA, Koch also sports a sharp 1.14 WHIP.

I’ll point out additionally that Cincinnati is a poor 10-16 (-1.8 units) on the road this year, while Arizona is a decent 14-12 (+1.7 units) at home.

After an unreal start to the season, the Diamondbacks have sure come back down to Earth of late. That said, Koch is the correct call here as I look for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Miami Marlins (4:10 EST).

I think the hard-throwing Marlins’ southpaw starter offers great value in this pitcher friendly park this evening.

Miami hands the ball to Caleb Smith (3-5, 3.83 ERA) who gave up one run while striking out eight over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, Smith also sports an elite 11.9 K/9.

The home side counters with the volatile Eric Lauer (1-2, 6.67) who gave up one run off six hits while walking two over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. 

Starts like that have been few and far between for the rookie though (in fact it was likely the best outing of his career to this point) and I believe that immediate regression is imminent. Note that Lauer owns a poor 6.48 ERA at home this season.

I think Smith has shown enough to trust that he’ll take full advantage of this opportunity. And as stated above, I’m not convinced at all that Lauer has turned any corners after one decent outing.

All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe that German Marquez and the hard-hitting home side could easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Harvey (1-2, 5.49 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks over six innings in a victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. Over three starts for the Reds Harvey has a 2.57 ERA and a solid 12/2 K/W. However in my opinion, regression seems imminent for the right-hander.

Marquez (3-5, 4.62) most recently gave up one run off two hits and two walks with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Monday.

Marquez has been significantly better on the road than at home, but his home park is the most difficult one to throw in in all the majors. Last year Marquez was 6-3 with a respectable 4.59 ERA at home and I think he’ll get back on track here.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight after a victory in which it scored six or more runs in, while Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing six or more runs in its previous outing.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:35 EST).

I think the visitors will build off their 4-1 win yesterday afternoon.

The Cards hand the ball to the red hot Miles Mikolas (6-0, 2.24 ERA), who comes in off a complete game shutout over the Royals on on Monday, allowing four hits and one walk to go along with nine K’s. 

Mikolas would throw 77 of his 109 pitches for strikes in the victory. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-4, 4.56) who gave up six runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out eight over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Tuesday. Taillon would allow a grand slam and it was his third home run given up over his last two games. 

While Taillon has been better at home than on the road, I think that recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that the home side hurler is in over his head here again.

There’s no reason not to think that Mikolas can carry over his early season momentum for another start. I think this one highly favors the hard-hitting Cardinals.

Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

I had a play on the Tigers yesterday afternoon and while that selection came up short, I believe that everything points to an immediate bounce back on Sunday. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile James Shields (1-4, 4.62 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over seven frames in a no-decision to the Baltimore on Tuesday. Shields has a decent 41/27 K/W over 62.1 innings, but note that he’s still just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.30 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Blaine Hardy (0-0, 3.46) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out four in a no-decision against Minnesota on Monday. Hardy only needed 77 pitches (53 of which went for strikes) to get through the five frames. Note that Hardy has a 4.15 ERA at home and a respectable 3.68 ERA in all “day” games.

Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago is still just 5-17 (-11.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while Detroit is 14-11 (+6.5 units) in the same position.

I’m banking on Hardy continuing his steady play and I look for the Tigers to find a way to avenge yesterday’s setback.

Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:10 EST).

I think Baltimore will bounce back here in the finale of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.48 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless while posting ten K’s and one walk in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday. 

To go along with his solid 1.31 WHIP, Gausman now also sports a strong 58/15 K/W over 62 innings of work. And note that Gausman has been particularly effective on the road this season with a 2.90 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Sergio Romo (1-1, 4.66) who fell to these very Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off two hits over two-thirds of an inning. Romo has been splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, but note that he’s a horrible 0-1 with an 11.81 ERA at home this season. 

Romo’s upside is clearly large, but his game to game inconsistencies make him hard to trust. Gausman on the other hand has clearly “turned the corner” and there’s no reason at all not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry over that momentum here.

All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:15 EST).

We think the Giants offer great value in this spot to bounce back from yesterday’s loss as a big dog on Saturday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (5-3, 4.92 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings in a victory over the Rockies on Saturday. Stratton has been decent overall this year, but note that he’s been at his absolute best on the road by posting a 3.60 ERA thus far, while also going a respectable 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA in all “night” contests.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (5-3, 4.47) who went seven scoreless against the anemic Reds on Saturday. Note though that it was the fourth time this season that the southpaw has walked four batters in a game. Also note that Quintana owns a poor 6.30 ERA at home so far this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is 5-2 in its last seven night contests, while Chicago is just 2-6 in its last eight after scoring five or more runs in its previous outing.

Quintana is getting much too much respect here in this particular matchup, which does indeed swing the value to the revenge minded visiting side.

Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry