Cappers Sports Picks

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (3-4, 3.42 ERA) who gave up four hits and four walks over 6.1 scoreless frames over Milwaukee on Saturday. After a slow start Freeland has been sharp of late, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 1-3 with a poor 4.82 ERA.

The home side counters with Derek Holland (2-4, 4.79) who comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Sunday, going 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and striking out seven. While his ERA isn’t anything to write home about, his 1.8 HR/9 remains very respectable.

I thin Holland carries over his momentum here and I expect Freeland to take another step back on the road, a place where he’s consistently struggled. Great value, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8:15 EST).

I had a play on Philadelphia in its slight upset over the Cards on Thursday and suffice it to say, I think the visitors carry that momentum over onto Friday.

The Phillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.59 ERA) who went 7.1 scoreless innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Friday, allowing five hits while also striking out five. To go along with his repeatable 2.59 ERA, Arrieta also owns a sharp 1.06 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9. 

The home side counters with Michael Wacha (4-1, 3.09) who comes in off a no-decision himself, giving up one run over six innings against the Padres on Saturday. Wacha has so far been excellent this year and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander, but I’ll point out that the Cards have really struggled in this spot by going just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous contest.

I like Arrieta to easily match pace with Wacha and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the underdog. Great value, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think the Pirates will build off their come from behind 5-4 win last night over the toothless Friars.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Cardinals on Saturday. 

In his previous outing though Ross would get rocked for five runs against Washington. For the most part Ross has been solid this season, but note that he was 0-2 with an 8.87 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Giants on Sunday, allowing four runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings. Nova has struggled of late, but note that he was 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA at home last season.

I’m not overreacting to one decent outing from Ross, or from a poor stretch from Nova, who has both the track record and pedigree to make an immediate return to form in front of the home town crowd.

Play on the surging Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

After their 10-5 loss yesterday, I think the Jays bounce back in fine fashion here.

The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (0-2, 8.16 ERA) who most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits while walking two in a loss to the Yanks on Sunday. After a great debut, Anderson has now posted back-to-back clunkers, allowing 11 earned runs off 18 hits spanning eight innings of work.

Anderson now owns the uninspiring 8.16 ERA to go along with a dismal 2.02 WHIP over 14.1 innings thus far.

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (2-3, 5.32) who gave up four runs off seven hits and one walk with five K’s over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Estrada went six scoreless in in his previous outing and while he’ll most likely never regain his 2015 form for Toronto, there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back in friendly confines with a better effort this evening (note that Estrada was 6-3 with a 3.98 ERA at home last season.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-5 in its last six after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing.

All things considered, I feel this line could in fact easily be a lot larger. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:15 EST).

I believe that Vince Velasquez has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup, which swings the value in favor of the underdog in my opinion.

Velasquez (3-4, 5.05 ERA) comes in off a strong outing against the Giants on Thursday, giving up three runs off five hits and a walk while striking out 12 over six innings. That’s now back-to-back winning efforts for Velazquez and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum over here.

The home side counters with the volatile Luke Weaver (3-2, 4.91) who comes in off a strong outing against the Padres on Friday, giving up no runs off five hits over five innings in the eventual victory. Previous to that though Weaver had been rocked for 18 earned runs over four combined starts.

Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into one decent outing by Weaver. 

I like Velasquez to out duel his counterpart and I look for the Phillies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Great value on this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I like the Jays to build off their 12-1 win yesterday. 

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Triggs (3-1, 5.31 ERA) who most recently was rocked for six runs off six hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks Saturday. Triggs has been “hit or miss” this year and he currently owns a ballooned 5.26 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (2-3, 4.08) who struck out four and gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Sanchez has looked better of late and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over here.

I think it’s interesting to note as well that the Jays are 6-2 in their last eight after scoring ten or more runs in their previous outing.

Toronto takes advantage of familiar surroundings in this matchup. Great price, play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40 EST).

Ultimately I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 8.03 ERA), who was rocked for seven runs over three innings at Coors Field on Friday. Woodruff is being called into service out of necessity with both Zach Davies and Chase Anderson sidelined with injury/illness.

The home side counters with Matt Koch (2-1, 2.43) who comes in off an unfortunate loss against the Nationals on Friday, as he’d give up three earned runs and strike out three over eight innings in the eventual 3-1 setback. 

Koch has been as solid as the Diamondbacks could have hoped for as he’s yet to go less than five innings or give up more than three earned runs in any of his five starts this year. To go along with his sparkling ERA, Koch also owns an elite 0.99 WHIP.

While regression seems imminent, I still give Koch the big nod on the mound in this particular matchup.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching, and when trying to properly assess a starting hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Koch is getting little respect from the oddsmakers this afternoon.

Great value, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

One of these starters has been terrible this year, and the other has been very solid. In my opinion, this line is way out of whack.

The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (0-3, 6.00 ERA) who comes off the DL after suffering flu like symptoms. In his previous outing in Colorado Darvish was shelled for five earned runs off seven hits and three home runs over 4.1 innings of work.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 3.21) who comes in off a gem against Miami on Thursday, allowing one run off three hits while striking out four over five innings in the eventual victory. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been solid overall this year as evidenced by his .86 HR/9 and 47/19 K/W over 42 innings of work.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Darvish is severely over-valued in this particular matchup. 

Great value, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (2-3, 3.09 ERA) who struck out nine against the Indians on Wednesday, but who also allowed four runs off six hits over five innings in the eventual setback. 

Guerra has been decent this season, but note that last year he was a poor 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA on the road. Suffice it to say, regression seems imminent in this tough atmosphere.

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (4-0, 2.12), who has been razor sharp of late, posting a 1.64 ERA, 1.09 with and 12 K’s over his last 11 frames of work. 

Corbin has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, as note that he is a spectacular 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA at home thus far.

I think Guerra is getting too much respect in this matchup. Corbin comes in confident and I believe he’ll easily get the better of his opponent tonight.

Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST).

Mariners slugger Robinson Cano will be out after getting injured in Detroit over the weekend. The visitors hand the ballot Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 3.18 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Wednesday. So far LeBlanc has looked decent as a starter in place of the injured Erasmo Ramirez, but regression is imminent in my opinion.

Note that LeBlanc was an unimpressive 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA on the road for the Pirates last year.

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.83) who struck out three and gave up one earned run off two hits over five innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Odorizzi sports solid numbers coming into this one, a 1.32 WHIP and a 38/20 K/W over 42.1 innings of work. Note as well that the hard-throwing right-hander has been at his best at home so far this year by going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA.

I’m banking on Odorizzi outlasting his over-achieving counterpart and for the Twins to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland Athletics (7:10 EST).

I think that Sean Manaea has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Manaea (4-4, 2.11 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out three and walking zero over six innings in a loss to Houston on Tuesday. Since throwing the first no-hitter of the season against the Red Sox, Manaea has now given up four runs in back-to-back starts.

No need to panic though in my opinion. Manaea owns a .170 opponent batting average as well as a 0.72 WHIP, to go along with an elite 45/7 K/W over 55.1 innings of work.

The home side counters with Rick Porcello (5-0, 2.79) who was most recently blasted for five runs off eight hits and three walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Wednesday. 

Porcello struggled with his command, throwing only 51 of his 91 pitches for strikes. 

Recent form is often the best indicator we have in properly assessing a starting pitcher and in this case, everything points to further regression for Porcello in my opinion.

The value is simply too great to turn down. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (4:10 EST).

I think that Rich Hill is not getting nearly enough respect in this particular matchup.

The soft-hitting visiting side sends Luis Castillo (2-4, 6.47 ERA) to the mound and he most recently gave up two runs over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. Castillo has looked better of late after a disastrous start to 2018, but I’m not convinced that the volatile southpaw has turned the corner yet.

Note that Castillo is still only 1-2 with a 7.23 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Hill (1-1, 7.11), who comes in off an outing to forget against the league leading Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up five runs and striking out five over four innings in what would turn out to be a fortunate no-decision. 

Hill has the track record (12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP last season, including going 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA at home) and pedigree to turn things around and that’s exactly what I’m expecting the veteran to accomplish here.

I’m banking on Hill bouncing back and as mentioned off the top, everything points to Castillo coming back down to Earth after his recent overachieving stretch.

Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:05 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (4-2, 2.40 ERA) who would give up one run off four hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Snell has been fantastic over his last six starts, posting a 43/9 K/W, but regression does seem imminent here.

Snell was 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year, including going just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.76 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (1-5, 5.31) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing seven runs off five hits in the eventual 15-7 setback. After a great start to the season, Bundy has stumbled over his last three starts, allowing 19 earned runs. 

Bundy though was 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, including 7-5 with a 3.99 ERA at home.

The moral of the story of this particular selection is to not overreact. Snell has been great, but he’s in unchartered territory right now as far as his performance is concerned and I’m simply unconvinced that he’s reached the next level. As stated above, regression is poised to rear its ugly head for the southpaw in my opinion. 

Bundy on the other hand will be more focused than he’s ever been in his career. Bundy had a 1.04 WHIP over his first three starts this season and I think he’ll begin his journey back to respectability this afternoon.

Play on the hard-hitting home side.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:05 EST).

While he’s struggle this season, I still think Drew Pomeranz is under-valued in this particular matchup.

Pomeranz (1-1, 5.23 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up two earned runs off four hits and two walks over six innings while posting six K’s in an unfortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Tuesday. Pomeranz was 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA last year, including 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road. All signs point to the hard-throwing southpaw to continue his progression this afternoon.

The home side counters with the volatile Joe Biagini (0-1, 8.10) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start in place of the injured Marcus Stroman. Over ten big league innings this season Biagini has the 8.10 ERA to go along with a 2.00 WHIP and 8/4 K/W.

I think Pomeranz builds off his last performance and I expect him to easily out duel his confirmed “gas can” counterpart. 

This line is way out of whack in my opinion. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:40 EST).

I think Michael Wacha and the hard-hitting visiting side are the correct call in this particular matchup.

Wacha (4-1, 3.35 ERA) most recently allowed two runs (just one earned) off six hits with five K’s over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. To go along with his decent 3.34 ERA, Wacha has so far also posted a career-best 78.4 precent strand rate. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The home side counters with Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.67) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Monday. Of the six hits Ross gave up, four were for extra bases, including a pair of dingers. Overall Ross has been solid this year, but note that he was just 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA in all night games last season.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Wacha suggests that he’s in line for a very productive evening here. I think Ross gets the hook early and I expect the Cards to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of the double header. Note that the game time on this one has been switched to 7:40, but we’re still calling this one a DAYTIME DOMINATOR.

Both of these starting pitchers have looked pretty good at times this season and rather poor in others, however I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (4-3, 5.28 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to LA on Sunday. Hernandez came into that dud on a solid run, having given up three runs or fewer over five straight contests, but once again the wheels would fall off the bus in this outing (note that Hernandez owns a poor 6.86 ERA on the road this year.)

The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (1-2, 3.51) who gave up five runs off four hits and three walks while also striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Monday. 

Note that Fulmer has been much better at home (2.14 ERA) this season, than on the road (4.95).

I have a hard time seeing “The King” just flipping a switch here and suddenly improving his performance on the road. Fulmer has been far from perfect, but he’s consistently been at his best throughout his career when throwing in front of the home town crowd.

I expect these strong trends to continue here and all things considered, I do indeed believe that this is very definition of “great line value.”

Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Faria (3-1, 4.15 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings to earn a victory over the Jays on Saturday. Faria for the most part has been excellent, but his weakness has clearly been on the road where he’s a poor 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.30) who gave up two hits and two walks while striking out six over nine scoreless against the A’s on Saturday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his brilliant effort. To go along with his respectable ERA, Gausman also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP over 43.2 innings of work thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 45-52 (-8.6 units) on the road when the money line in set between +125 and -125 the last two years, while Baltimore is 52-45 (+4.6 units) at home in the same price range and span.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I believe that Aaron Sanchez and the home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

The Red Sox turn to ace Chris Sale (3-1, 2.02 ERA) who comes in off s strong effort against Texas on Sunday, giving up one run off four hits and a walk while also striking out 12 over seven innings. 

The home side counters with Sanchez (2-3, 4.14) who gave up four runs off five hits and over 3.2 innings in a loss to Tampa on Saturday. 

Sanchez is still trying to find his form after a lengthy injury sidelined him for most of last season. Sanchez though has the pedigree and track record to compete with Sale today and note as well that Toronto is still 7-5 (+3.8 units) this season against clubs with winning records.

The Red Sox have been on an absolute tear and it’s hard to say too many negative things about them, but in my opinion all signs point to a letdown here after their series in New York earlier this week.

The value is simply too great to turn down in my opinion. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (4-0, 2.70 ERA) who continues to find ways to win, most recently scattering seven hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out four and walking no one in a  victory over the Cubs on Friday. 

Mikolas’s peripherals suggest this his current arc is sustainable, as note that to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA he also owns an elite 0.98 WHIP and a massive 31/2 K/W thus far. Note as well that he’s been particularly effective on the road with a 3.20 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Lyles (0-0, 3.66), who will make his first start of the year here. So far he’s looked pretty good out of the pen with a 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Note though that Lyles would post a poor 1-3, 8.12 ERA in all night games last season as a starter.

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is a superb 9-3 (+5.1 units) this season against clubs with losing records, while SD is just 5-9 (-1.8 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I think that hard-throwing Caleb Smith and the home side offer great value in this spot. 

The visitors turn to Mike Foltynewicz (2-2, 3.65 ERA) who was most recently rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. This was by far Foltynewicz’s worst start of the year, so there’s no reason to completely overreact, but that said, it’s not the most encouraging sign either. 

Smith (2-3, 3.67) comes in off a gem against the Reds on Saturday, allowing three hits over six scoreless while also striking out seven in the eventual victory. To go along with his solid 3.67 ERA, Smith also sports an elite 12.6 K/9 (and note that he’s been particularly effective at home by posting a tiny 2.08 ERA there thus far.)

I’ll point out as well that despite its decent start, ATL is still a poor 3-4 (-1.2 units) against teams with losing records this season.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

Here’s another matchup where I believe the “home field advantage” will play a significant role in the final outcome. 

The visitors turn to Patrick Corbin (4-0, 2.15 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a victory over these very Dodgers on Thursday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision.  Corbin has to this point been superb, but I think regression is imminent. 

The home side counters with Alex Wood (0-3, 3.83) who most recently allowed one run off four hits while striking out eight over five innings in a no-decision to these very Diamondbacks throwing opposite Corbin.

So far Wood has posted a 38/5 K/W and .45 HR/9. 

I’ll also point out that LA is 4-1 in its last five after giving up five or more runs in its previous contest.

Wood gets off the schneid finally and punches one into the win column and the overachieving Corbin finally has a letdown.

Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

After their blowout loss on Tuesday night, I look for the Orioles to bounce back on Wednesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Eric Skoglund (1-2, 6.84 ERA) who was most recently shelled for five runs off eight hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Thursday. Skoglund entered that one with an opponents’ hard-hit rate at nearly 50 percent and it didn’t improve after that “dud.” 

The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (1-4, 4.89) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Cashner has been hit or miss this year, but  note that he owned a respectable 2.81 ERA in all “home games” last season. 

I’ll also point out that KC is just 1-5 in its last six after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven after allowing ten or more runs.

For all the reasons listed above, bank on Baltimore bouncing back on Wednesday night.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Giants achilles heel the last few seasons has been their play on the road. Philadelphia hasn’t been great at home in that span either, but in this particular matchup I don’t think that the “home field advantage” can be overlooked as a very real factor working in favor of Nick Pivetta and the Phillies.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (3-2, 3.99 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings to earn a victory over Atlanta on Friday. Stratton has actually been better on the road than at home this season, but I still think he’ll be in over his head here against the determined home side.

Philadelphia counters with Nick Pivetta (1-2, 4.76) who comes in off an outing to forget by allowing six runs off five hits over just one inning in a loss against Washington on Friday. 

Despite that dud of an effort and his uninspiring 4.76 ERA, Pivetta still owns a solid 35/10 K/W. 

I’ll point out as well that San Fran is just 8-9 (-1.1 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philly is 14-12 (+1.2 units) in the same position.

The advantages are slim, but they all add up to make the home side the correct call in this particular matchup.

Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (2:05 EST).

As good as the Rangers’ Bartolo Colon has looked in the early going, I firmly believe that this line could easily be a lot larger as I expect Francisco Liriano and the hard-hitting Tigers to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Liriano (3-1, 2.97 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Royals on Friday, allowing one run off three hits while striking out five and walking two over seven innings. Opponents are averaging just .187 off him and he sports a strong 2.97 ERA and solid 26/16 K/W thus far.

Colon (1-1, 3.29) comes in off a loss against the Red Sox on Friday, allowing four runs off five hits over seven innings. Colon owns an elite 0.83 WHIP still, but in my opinion regression is imminent.

Liriano put together a strong spring and his consistency carried over. Colon got out to an unreal start, but reality it would seem is starting to catch up to the veteran. 

Everything points to a blowout. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Washington hands the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.00 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Thursday, going six scoreless and scattering three hits while striking out four. 44 of his 61 pitches went for strikes and after four starts this year the veteran owns a solid 3.00 ERA and 13/4 K/W. 

The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richard (1-4, 6.21) who was rocked by San Francisco on Wednesday to the tune of seven runs off eight hits and four walks over four innings. To go along with his unsightly ERA, Richard also sports a poor 1.73 WHIP.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Hellickson is on the cusp of punching his first one into the win column, while Richard has another long-night ahead of him.

All things considered, I think this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this inter league contest favors Ivan Nova and the Pirates.

Nova (2-2, 4.01 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Nationals on Wednesday, allowing eight runs over 4.2 innings. Blowout games like that happen to even the best, so I’m not overreacting to one poor start. Note that previous to that Nova entered with a stellar 2.28 ERA over 27.2 innings of work. 

And a date against the hapless White Sox and Luis Giolito (1-4, 7.03) is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Giolito most recently allowed three runs off four hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Cards on Wednesday. 

To go along with his ghastly 7.03 ERA, Giolito also sports a sub-par 1.56 WHIP and 18/23 K/W. After stringing together back-to-back decent outings, regression seems imminent for the 23-year old in my opinion.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is a solid 16-14 (+1.5 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is just 7-17 (-9.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

Matt Moore and the home side offer great value in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Fulmer (1-2, 2.80 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Wednesday. Fulmer need 109 pitches to get through the six frames and while he’s now posted three straight quality outings, I think he’ll have his hands full here against Moore and company.

Moore (1-4, 7.67) is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for ten runs off 11 hits over four innings against the Tribe on Wednesday. Moore hasn’t gotten out to the start he’d hoped for for his new team, but note that the Rangers are a strong 138-121 (+26.2 units) in all “night” games the last two seasons, while Detroit is just 94-127 (-29.4 units) in the same position/span.

Both teams have struggled this year, but I like Moore and the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the visitors to bounce back and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one.

The Cubs hand the ball to Jon Lester (2-1, 2.73 ERA), who enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Monday, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings of work. So far the opposition is hitting just .222 off Lester this year and there’s no reason not to think that the crafty southpaw won’t be able to carry that momentum over here.

The home side counters with Michael Wacha (4-1, 3.62) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday. Opponents are hitting just .246 off Wacha. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about the Cards’ hard-throwing right-hander, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

As note that Chicago is still 14-9 (+2.9 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis is just 75-82 (-12 units) the last two years in the same position (and just 3-4 in its last seven.) 

I’m banking on the hungry visitors bouncing back in the Sunday Nighter. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST).

Like my pick on the Indians, I ultimately think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound (and at the plate) than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the surging Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Jays on Tuesday, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings while walking two and striking out six. To go along with his respectable 3.38 ERA, Gibson also sports a respectable 1.28 WHIP. Gibson’s peripherals point to good times ahead, as his 10.1 K/9 is well above his career mark of 6.5 K/9.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-3, 5.35) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off two hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Cards on Tuesday. 

Starts like that have been few and far between for Shields though over the last couple of seasons and note that he still owns a poor 19/17 K/W through his 35.1 innings of work thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is already 4-2 (+2 units) against the division, while Chicago is just 6-8 (-2.4 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (1:05 EST).

Cleveland has dropped the first two games of this series, but I think the visitors will bounce back in what I believe to a be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.82 ERA) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rangers on Tuesday, giving up three runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over 6.2 innings. Note that Clevinger was particularly effective on the road last year by going 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA. 

The Yanks counter with Domingo German (0-1, 3.77), who will make this start in place of the injured Jordan Montgomery. German has looked decent in his limited time with an 18/7 K/W over 14.1 innings, but clearly he faces a difficult task today vs. these hungry/desperate and revenge minded Indians.

I think Clevinger and the Tribe offer fantastic value in this bounce back spot. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (9:05 EST).

I think that Kevin Gausmann and the hungry Orioles offer fantastic value in this spot.

Gausmann (2-2, 4.15) comes in off a gem against the Tigers on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in Sunday’s 5-3 victory. 

Gausmann is back on track after a horrible debut, posting three straight quality starts in which he’s conceded two runs or less. 

The home side goes with Trevor Cahill (1-1, 3.00) who gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. 

Cahill has been better than expected so far this year, but I think he’s extremely overpriced in this spot. I like the hard-hitting Orioles to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

In a contest between bottom feeders, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors turn to the volatile Caleb Smith (1-3, 4.40 ERA) who picked up a win against the Rockies on Sunday, going seven scoreless and striking out nine. Smith has looked decent over his last two outings, but note that he’s still 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA on the road this season.

The home side goes with Tyler Mahle (2-3, 4.32) who comes in off a gem as well, holding the Twins to one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings. 

Both teams have been terrible, with Miami sitting at 11-19 overall and the Reds at 7-24 as of writing. 

But Smith’s road issues are a major concern for Miami bettors tonight. Conversely, everything points to Mahle building off his latest gem as he takes advantage of familiar surroundings.

All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

After a slow start, the high-powered Nats come into Saturday on a bit of a roll and suffice it to say, I expect Washington to carry that momentum over here.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Vince Velasquez (1-4, 5.70 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Sunday. 

Note that Velasquez was just 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA last year, including just 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA on the road.

The home side sends Tanner Roark (2-2, 3.55) to the hill and he comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Monday, allowing two earned runs off six hits while also striking out four over seven innings.

To go along with his solid 3.55 ERA, Roark also owns an elite 1.03 WHIP. Over 38 innings opponents are managing just .194 off him over 38 frames of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 108-160 (-34.9 units) against right-handed starts over the last two years, while Washington is already 13-8 (+1.2 units) in the same position this season.

For all the reasons listed above, lay this very reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (8:15 EST).

I like the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The Cubs turn to Jose Quintana (3-1, 5.74 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year after allowing just two hits and one walk over seven scoreless while also striking out seven in a victory over the Brewers on Wednesday. Quintana has turned the corner, having posted a 14/2 K/W over his last two starts.

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (3-0, 3.27) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. Mikolas has looked sharp so far for the Cards, but in my opinion regression is imminent.

Note as well that Chicago is 9-5 (+1.7 units) against the division already this year and 8-3 (+2.4 units) following a loss, while St. Louis is just 6-7 (-3.2 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think the surging Braves are well worth the price of admission in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (2-2, 3.90 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and four walks over 1.1 innings against the Dodgers on Saturday. Stratton was rolling coming into this start and further regression seems imminent in my opinion (note that Stratton was just 1-3 on the road last year.)

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (2-1, 2.53) who gave up one earned run off three hits while walking two and striking out six in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. The hard-throwing right-hander threw 64 of his 91 pitches for strikes, while also generating 12 swinging strikes.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Stratton suggests that he’s in for another long night here against the hard-hitting home side.

I look for Foltynewicz to take advantage. Lay the price, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the home side to find a way to get the job done after its 3-2 setback yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (4-2, 1.03 ERA), who after throwing the season’s first no-hitter against the Red Sox, came back and struck out seven and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the defending champs on Friday. 

Manaea has been superb so far this year, but regression does seem imminent in my opinion (note that he was just 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA on the road last season.)

The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 4.61) who so far has worked as a long reliever for Seattle. LeBlanc was 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA as a starter for the Pirates last year, including going 5-0 with a 3.99 ERA in all “home” games.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 8-13 (-5.8 units) against the division this season, while Seattle is 7-5 (+2.2 units) in the same position.

Great value on the home side tonight. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to David Price (2-3, 3.78 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rays on Saturday, giving up six runs while striking out five and walking four on Saturday. Price has struggled a bit of late, but clearly the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form here. Note that he was 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA in all “night” games last season.

The home side counters with Mike Minor (2-1, 4.33) who earned a win on Friday against the Jays despite giving up four runs off nine hits over six innings. Minor has so far exceed expectations in Texas, but I believe he’ll be in tough here against the hard-hitting Red Sox.

Note as well that Boston is 14-5 (+6.1 units) in all “night” games this season, while Texas is just 8-13 (-1 unit) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST).

Washington crushed Pittsburgh 9-3 yesterday and I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon in this one as well.

The visitors turn to Trevor Williams (4-1, 2.29 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits while walking two and striking out two over six innings in a victory over the Cards on Saturday. Regression though seems imminent for Williams after finishing 7-9 with a 4.07 ERA last year. Note that he also sports a pedestrian 23/17 K/W so far this season.

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 4.11), who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the D-back on Saturday. 

For arguments sake, let’s call these pitchers a “wash.” Note though that Pittsburgh is just 1-5 in its last six after giving up nine or more runs in its previous outing. 

Pittsburgh is 17-13 overall this season, while Washington is just 14-16. The Nats have some ground to make up and I look for them to punch another one into the win column here.

Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

My 10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I like the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.00 ERA) who was most recently shelled for five earned runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Thursday. 

It was the second straight start in which Estrada has given up five earned runs. The 2015/16 season in which he posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are now firmly in the rear view mirror for Estrada.

The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.33) who comes in off a gem against the Yanks on Thursday, allowing one hit and three walks while striking out ten over six scoreless in the victory. To go along with his respectable 3.33 ERA, Gibson also owns an elite 10.0 K/9.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests than Estrada is going to be in line for another long night, while everything points to another productive outing for the ever improving Gibson.

Great price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST).

The Phillies have been struggling of late, but a date against the lowly Marlins is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.82 ERA) who gave up three runs (one earned) off four hits and two walks while striking out two over seven innings in a win over hard-hitting Arizona on Wednesday. After a shaky debut, Arrietta has thrown three straight quality starts.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (0-0, 0.00) who threw a bullpen session on Friday and who will make his debut in 2018 here. Straily would finish a pedestrian 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA last year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

Straily looked decent in his rehab and he was better at home than on the road last season, but this is obviously a very tough first matchup out of the gates.

Recent form displayed by Arrieta though suggests than he’s in store for another big night. Miami stumbles here in my opinion after yesterday’s 3-0 win, while Philadelphia bounces back in this favorable situation.

Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I think this one favors the hard-hitting visitors.

Milwaukee turns to Jhoulys Chacin (2-1, 3.99 ERA), who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk with three K’s over six innings in a victory over KC on Wednesday. 

Chacin finished 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA and he’s backed by one of the best bullpens in the league.

The home side counters with the volatile Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 8.03) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk over five innings while striking out four in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. To go along with his deplorable ERA, Finnegan also sports an atrocious 2.19 WHIP.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Finnegan is going to be in for another long night here. Chacin isn’t asked to do too much right now, a strategy which has worked with the Brewers’ strong pen.

Great price, play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Detroit returns home off a loss at Baltimore, while Tampa fell 4-3 at Boston. Ultimately I feel that the visitors should in fact be a much larger favorite in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Faria (1-1, 6.33 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs off four hits and three walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings against the Orioles on Wednesday, fortunate to earn a no-decision. 

Faria’s 20/14 K/W isn’t very impressive, but the fact that he threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 20 batters he faced and induced 14 swings and misses certainly is. Note that Faria was 4-3 with a 2.87 ERA in all “night” gams last year.

The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Zimermann (1-0, 7.91) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and a walk over three innings while striking out four against the Pirates on Wednesday.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is already 3-1 (+2 units) on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Detroit is a poor 6-7 (-1.7 units) at home and only 41-49 (-10.1 units) at home with a money line of +125 to -125.

I’m banking on Faria outlasting his counterpart and for the Rays to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (8:05 EST).

A couple of capable hurlers square off against a couple of hard-hitting line-ups in this one. All things being equal, I absolutely feel that the home field advantage factor will prove to be significant in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the venerable CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.86 ERA), who gave up two hits while walking one and striking out four over six scoreless in a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (3-1, 2.96) who went seven scoreless against Houston on Monday, giving up four hits and a walk with three K’s. 

Both teams have had success against southpaws this year, but LA is already 12-7 (+4.7 units) in all night contests thus far.

The Yanks are 16-9 overall coming into this one, but note that they’re a poor 41-63 (-22.6 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. 

Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:20 EST).

I like the Brewers to respond here after yesterday’s 3-0 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Davies (2-2, 4.45 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out two over six innings against Kansas City on Tuesday. 

It was Davies second straight quality outing and while he only struck out two, he did induce 11 groundouts. Davies was 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA last year, including 9-2 with a 2.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (1-3, 3.74) who picked up his first win of the season against the Tribe on Tuesday, holding them to one run off four hits with five walks while striking out five of six innings. Chatwood’s ERA remains respectable, but his peripherals are cause for concern, especially considering that he’s already walked 19 batters over 21.2 innings of work. 

I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 5-2 in its last seven after getting shutout in its previous outing, while Chicago is just 2-7 in its last nine after shutting out its opponent in its previous game.

Great value, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Norris (0-1, 4.85 ERA) who comes in sporting a mixed bag of stats. His 4.91 ERA over 11 innings isn’t great, but his 3.45 FIP suggests he could improve. However, his 11.8 percent walked batter rate is nothing to write home about. Note that Norris was 0-1 with a 6.41 ERA in all day games last season.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (1-2, 4.66) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Indians on Monday, giving up two runs off four hits over eight innings while striking out seven and walking one in an unfortunate loss. 

Gausman has started to come around after a slow start and his 26/7 K/W suggests that his progression should continue.

Also note that Detroit is just 9-12 (-1.3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Baltimore is still 100-75 (+15.2 units) the last two seasons at home.

And as mentioned off the top, I do indeed think that the home field advantage will come into play in this matchup. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST).

Here’s another matchup where I believe that the home field advantage will prove to be significant in the final outcome.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Wood (0-2, 3.72) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Sunday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Wood, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (2-0, 0.35) who went six scoreless while striking out seven in a win over the Angels on Sunday. So far over four starts Cueto has given up just one run and to along with his tiny 0.35 ERA, he also sports a ridiculous 0.65 WHIP.

Regression is surely imminent for Cueto, but I think the veteran can carry the momentum over for at least one more start. Note as well that LA is just 2-3 (-2.1 units) this year as a road fav between -125 to -175, while San Fran is 4-2 (+2.3 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125.

Great value, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. These line-ups are also very even as well. 

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very really factor in this particular matchup though.

The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (3-2, 4.97 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Twins on Monday. It was Tanaka’s best start of the year, as note previous to that he’d been shelled for 12 runs spanning two starts. 

The home side counters with Garrett Richards (3-0, 3.46) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking one and striking out 11 in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. 

Richards is trending in the correct direction as well as it was the first time he walked fewer than three batters this season.

I’ll point out as well that New York has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this year already by going just 1-4 (-3.1 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while LA is 12-6 (+5.7 units) in all “night” games.

Great price here, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (2-1, 3.13 ERA) who gave up three runs off two hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against Kansas City on Sunday. Liriano had a strong spring and for the most part that’s carried over into the regular season. I’ll point out though that he was just 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (1-3, 3.60) who gave up four runs off eight hits and two walks over six innings in a 7-3 loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Cashner’s bright spot in the setback was that he’d post seven K’s. Cashner has to be feeling confident here though as note that he owned a sharp 2.72 ERA in all “home” games last season.

I’m not convinced Liriano has taken the next step. Cashner comes in off a sub-par outing, but his track record suggests that he’ll be able to bounce back in front of the home town crowd tonight.

In my opinion, great value on this one. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (1-2, 4.78 ERA), who enters off his first win of the year, giving up one earned run off four hits while striking out five and walking one over six innings against the Braves. Romano has looked a bit better of late, but note that his peripherals remain poor (16/12 K/W on the year, while also owning a 4.70 ERA over 107.1 big league innings of work.)

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.50) who gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Monday, also striking out five. It’s been a mixed bag for Odorizzi so far this season, looking quite good at times and pretty poor in others.

It’s worthy to note though that Odorizzi was dominant in all day games last year by going 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA. 

Also note that Cincinnati is just 2-11 (-8.8 units) on the road this year, while Minnesota is 4-2 (+2.4 units) at home.

I think Odorizzi settles down and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Mets hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (2-0, 2.53 ERA) who had to settle for a no-decision after going seven scoreless and striking out ten against the Braves on Saturday. DeGrom now sports an elite 40/8 K/W over 32 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to maintain his focus here.

The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richards (1-2, 5.67) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Saturday. Richards has now posted four straight outings of going exactly five innings and allowing four or more earned runs. 

Note that New york is already 4-1 (+3.4 units) this year against southpaws, while San Diego is just 5-11 (-3.3 units) against right-handed starters. 

This line could easily be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound. Great value, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

Arizona comes in off an 8-2 win at Philadelphia yesterday afternoon, while Washington enters off a days rest.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (3-1, 3.09 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out eight over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Pirates on Saturday. 

In his previous outing Godley had been shelled for five earned runs over four innings. Godley had a breakout season in 2017 and so far he’s carried that momentum over into 2018. I’ve played on Godley several times already this year, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

The home side counters with co-ace Stephen Strasburg (2-2, 2.97) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking two and striking out ten over seven innings in a no-decision in his most recent action. Strasburg has already given up six home runs this year (after allowing 13 in 2017), but his peripherals (2.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP) have him in line for another productive season. Note that Strasburg was particularly effective at home last year by going 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA.

A couple of competent hurlers squaring off in this opener, but I’m giving the nod to the rested Nationals and to Strasburg. Arizona is just 122-130 (-11.6 units) against right-handed starters the last two seasons and I think Washington’s flame-thrower comes out on top here.

Lay the price, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

I had a play on Atlanta in its 7-4 win over Cincinnati yesterday afternoon and I think that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in Game 1 of this three game set in Philadelphia on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (1-1, 4.00 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision agains the hard-hitting Mets on Saturday, going seven scoreless and allowing just four hits and a walk while striking out six. Teheran was rocked in his season debut, but the hard-throwing right-hander has now delivered three straight quality starts and I’m expecting the veteran to carry that momentum over tonight.

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.30), who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out nine in a win over the light-hitting Pirates on Saturday. Hard to say anything negative about Nola, but I’ll point out that the Braves are still just 4-7 (-4.3 units) against the division this season.

The Braves on the other hand are 9-6 (+4.8 units) against division foes and once again, I think they’re being undervalued in this particular spot.

Great value, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

The Brewers come in off a two-game inter league series sweep of the Royals and I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here.

The Cubs took two of three from Colorado over the weekend and then split a two-game series with the Tribe, falling 4-1 yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (2-1, 3.25 ERA), who gave up three earned runs off five hits over 5.1 innings in a win over the light-hitting Marlins last Thursday. Anderson has so far been “on point” this season, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 4.09) who gave up three earned runs off five hits, while walking none and striking out six in a 16-5 victory over the Rockies on Friday. Hendricks owns a strong 19/7 K/W this year and I think he’ll build off this latest effort.

I do indeed believe that the Cubs offer great value at home here, as note that they’re already 9-6 against clubs with winning records this season (Brewers just 1-2 in the same position.) 

Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Atlanta Braves (12:35 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-1, 3.74 ERA), who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Friday, giving up two earned runs over six innings while striking out five. Newcomb threw 61 of his 105 pitches for strikes and he now owns an 11.2 K/9. 

The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (0-3, 3.68) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Cards on Saturday. Bailey has now served up four homers on the year already, which falls in line with his poor season last year where he went a poor 1-6 with a 7.90 ERA at home. 

Bailey’s shown nothing special this season and until he does, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he’ll suddenly “flip a switch” and start turning things around this afternoon.

Newcomb on the other hand has gotten consistently better with each start and I believe that progression continues on Thursday. All things considered I think this is a very fair price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

INCORRECT PITCHERS

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (1-1, 4.42 ERA), who was 2-7 with a 6.08 ERA last year. Matz most recently gave up three runs off three hits and a walk over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday.

Matz continues to struggle for the most part, as so far he’s been unable to go beyond five innings in all four of his starts. 

The home side counters with Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.22) who gave up one run off six hits with three K’s and one walk over 6.2 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Friday. 

Wacha was 12-9 with a 4.13 ERA last year, but he was particularly effective at home by going 8-4 with a very respectable 3.41 ERA. 

Both teams have gotten out to good starts to the 2018 campaign, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Matz has another difficult night in store for him. All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price.

Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat to score the minor upset here.

The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (1-1, 4.18 ERA) who went six scoreless to earn a victory over the light-hitting Marlins on Friday, striking out five and walking three. 

To go along with his unimpressive 4.18 ERA, Chacin also owns a poor 1.73 WHIP with a .289 batting average. 

The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 3.20) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Tigers on Friday, allowing two runs off five hits with four K’s over nine innings. 

After a “dud” in his season debut, Hammel has been “lights out” of late, giving up a total of just four runs off 16 hits over 20.1 innings of work. 

Chacin looked decent in his last start, but recent form displayed by these two veterans suggests that Hammel is poised for another big night.

I’m giving Hammel the firm nod in this matchup. All things considered a great price, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday and it came up short. With its ace on the mound tonight though, I like the home side to find a way to get the job done this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (2-1, 4.13 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with two K’s and a walk over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Thursday. It was Greinke’s best start of the year, having posted a 5.29 ERA over three starts previous. Greinke though for the most part has looked solid this year, sporting a sparkling 23/2 K/W through his first 24 innings of work.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (2-0, 2.04) who gave up one hit and walked two while striking out ten over seven scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Thursday. Arrieta enters this one on top form, with his fastball averaging 93 MPH right now, as fast as it’s ever been.

Greinke was 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA last year, but his achilles heel was his play on the road, just 4-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

After yesterday’s lacklustre performance, I like Arrieta to continue his dominance at home and get the better of his counterpart.

Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Seattle Mariners (2:10 EST).

I think Felix Hernandez and the visiting Mariners build off yesterday’s 1-0 victory.

Fernandez (2-2, 5.06 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Friday. Hernandez has shown flashes of brilliance, but owns a pedestrian 5.06 ERA and 20/10 K/W over 26.2 innings of work thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-2, 6.17) who was rocked for seven runs off eight hits in a shutout loss to Houston on Friday. So far Shields has been shelled for 27 hits over 23.1 innings of work, including giving up 13 walks, compared to just 11 K’s. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 22-9 (+9.7 units) in its last 31 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is just 2-5 (-1.7 units) already this season against teams with winning records.

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I’m still going to give Hernandez the slight nod here. The Mariners also get the slight nod at the plate. 

Hernandez is the correct call in my opinion. While “The King” has been far from perfect, as mentioned off the top he’s shown flashes of his former self and he’s on the cusp of a big game.

The same can not be said of Shields though, he looks worse every time he heads out to the hill. This line could easily be larger, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

It’s Robbie Ray of the first place Diamondbacks against Vince Velasquez of the Phillies. Both starters have done decently to start the season, but Velasquez comes in on top form.

Ray has posted two quality starts out of four tries so far this season. Ray gave up six runs over 11.2 innings spanning two starts against the Phillies last year. One other player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is slugger David Peralta, who has seven hits and three RBI’s over his last six games. Overall the Diamondbacks are averaging 4.52 runs per game, while posting a combined 2.75 ERA, which is good for third overall.

Velasquez has posted three straight quality starts and owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 21.1 innings of work. Velasquez has had previous success against the Diamondbacks as well, allowing one run over 8.2 innings. Note that Velasquez has 24 K’s and just one home run given up so far this season. Philadelphia slugger Odubel Herrera has a .329 average, with one homer and eight RBI’s. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this matchup, I have to give the nod to Velasquez. Ray has shown flashes of last year’s career campaign, but so far the southpaw has been inconsistent this season.

The Phillies are getting production at the plate right now as well. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is great line value. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (6:35 EST).

I had a play on Minnesota yesterday and it came up short, but I like the visitors to bounce back in the second game of this four-game set.

Minnesota was swept over the weekend by the Rays, so there’s no question that the Twins will be eager to get back into the winners circle tonight. 

The Twins turn to ace Jose Berrios (2-1, 1.63 ERA) who has so far posted a 29/1 K/W over 27.2 innings of work. Berrios enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday, going seven scoreless, giving up three hits, no walks and posting five K’s. Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA, with six walks and nine K’s over ten innings in his career against the Yanks.

The home side took three of four from Toronto over the weekend and also the first game of this series, The home side hands the ball to the venerable CC Sabathia (0-0, 2.70), who has posted three walks and eight K’s over 13.1 innings of work. In his last start against the Jays he’d receive a no-decision after allowing two runs off four hits over 4.1 innings. Sabathia is 19-9 with a 3.16 ERA lifetime against Minnesota. 

I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six against southpaws, while New York is just 6-7 (-4.7 units) this season against right-handed starters.

Enough is enough for the Twins. With their ace on the mound, look for the visitors to score the minor upset here. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (7:05 EST).

Minnesota looks to bounce back here after falling 8-6 in Tampa yesterday. New York comes in off a 5-1 win over Toronto.

I think that Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 3.38 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Odorizzi comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off six hits with six K’s and a a walk over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday. It was his worst start thus far for his new club, but there’s no reason not to think that he won’t bounce back here (note that Odorizzi was 5-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road last season.) 

The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 6.45) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the light-hitting Marlins on Tuesday. 

Tanaka has been rocked for 12 earned runs over his last ten innings of work. 

Note that Minnesota is already 5-3 (+3.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in the same position.

Despite coming off his worst performance of the year, I’m still giving Odorizzi the big nod in this matchup. Tanaka is clearly struggling and that doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous Twins line-up. 

With Odorizzi out duelling his counterpart, the value absolutely swings to the dog in this situation.

Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST).

Despite looking decent of late, I believe that A’s starting pitcher Daniel Mengden is getting entirely too much respect in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to David Price (2-1, 2.25 ERA) who gave up one earned run off three hits while walking four and striking out six over five innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. 

Mengden (2-2, 4.50) stymied the White Sox by allowing one run with six K’s over eight innings in the victory on Monday. Note though that it was the first time that he’d last past the sixth frame this season. 

I’ll point out as well that Boston is an unreal 15-2 (+12.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Oakland is just 1-6 (-5.4 units) against southpaws. 

I think Price will at the very least match Mengden inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hard-hitting visiting side.

Lay the price on Price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, holding the hard-hitting Astros to just one run off three hits with three walks and seven K’s over six innings in the eventual victory. 

Since getting rocked for six runs in his season debut, Paxton has been on fire with a 24/5 K/W and 2.65 ERA since. 

Note that Paxton was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the venerable Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45), who has defied the odds once again and looked great in his limited time thus far, giving up one run off one hit and one walk over 7.2 innings of work. 

In my opinion, imminent regression is imminent for Colon though, who was a horrible 3-8 with a 6.81 ERA on the road last season. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 5-3 (+2.7 units) in all night games, while Texas is 5-8 (-1.1 units) in the same position.

In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot bigger. Great value, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe..

The visitors turn to Kyle Gibson (1-0, 3.68 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Houston on Wednesday. After a great opener, Gibson has struggled in back-to-back outings, failing to make it out of the fifth frame in either. 

The home side counters with Blake Snell (2-1, 2.95), who comes in off a gem against Tampa Bay on Monday, giving up one earned run off five hits over 6.1 innings while striking out nine and walking none in the eventual 8-4 victory. 

Snell comes in off back-to-back solid outings, giving up two earned runs to go along with 19 K’s over 12. innings of work in that span. Overall Snell has 26 K’s over his 21.1 frames this season. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that the oddsmakers have made a major mistake. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” 

Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominators is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

Last year Marcus Stroman (0-1, 7.98 ERA) was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, but so far he’s struggled. Suffice it to say, I think he starts to get back on track here. Stroman most recently gave up four earned runs over five innings, while also striking out five in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Friday. 

Stroman’s last start was skipped over due to postponement. I’ll point out that Stroman was 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 4.70) who gave up three earned runs off five hits while striking out four and walking none in a victory over the Tigers on Friday. Note that it was Montgomery’s first quality outing of the year. Previous to that he’d given up ten hits to the Orioles. Despite his 1-0 record Montgomery owns a very hittable 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is 5-2 (+2.6 units) already this season against southpaws, while New York is just 5-6 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters.

I’m banking on Stroman outlasting his counterpart and that’s going to be more than enough in my opinion for the visitors to score the comfortable upset.

Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

As good as Max Scherzer has looked at times this year and as strong as the Nationals’ line-up is, I still believe the value is on Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw.

Scherzer (3-1, 1.33 ERA) won both his starts last week. Scherzer now leagues the lead in K’s with 38.

Kershaw (1-2, 1.73) has looked sharp to open the season despite his win/loss record, positing a tiny 0.88 WHIP and 10.3 K/W through 26 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is already 3-6 (-7 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 5-2 (+2.2 units) following a victory. 

The late West Coast start will be difficult for the visitors and I fully expect Kershaw to take advantage. All things considered, a great price on a great and undervalued hurler. 

Lay it, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Both teams come in off losses, but for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the home side. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will make his season debut today after starting the year off on the DL with a strained pectoral. Samardzija looked horrible in his final rehab appearance, giving up six runs over 2.2 innings.

The Angels counter with Andrew Heaney (0-0, 5.40), who gave up four runs (three earned) off seven hits while walking one and striking out seven in a no-decision against the Royals on Friday. 

Neither starter instills much confidence, but note that San Francisco is just 4-6 (-1.2 units) in all night games this year and only 5-7 (-1.4 units) against southpaws, while LA is 9-4 (+4 units) in all night games and 10-4 (+5.9 units) against right-handed starters.

I like Heaney to out duel his still yet untested veteran counterpart and for the hard-hitting Angels to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat.

Lay the price, play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.71 ERA) who gave up two earned runs over six innings of work in an unfortunate loss to the Pirates on Thursday. Note that Hendricks has now given up four home runs over his first three starts, which clearly doesn’t bode well on the road at Coors tonight.

The home side counters with Jon Gray (1-3, 6.23) who gave up five runs off eight hits while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Nationals on Saturday. There was some room to read between the lines in Gray’s performance though, who allowed just one run over five innings.

I’ll point out though that Chicago is just 4-6 (-5.4 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Colorado is 7-4 (+4.7 units) in the same position (also 5-3, +1.9 units following a loss.)

I’m banking on Gray bouncing back here and I believe Hendricks’ issues with “the long ball” once again come back to haunt him in this unfriendly pitching environment.

Play on the Rockies.

Good luck..Larry

My 10* National League GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Pittsburgh comes to town off a very satisfying 10-2 win at home over Colorado yesterday afternoon and I believe it’ll stumble on the road against this tough opponent. 

The home side turns to ace Jake Arrieta (1-0, 3.38 ERA), who picked up his first victory of the year against the the Rays on Saturday, giving up three runs off seven hits and two walks over 6.2 innings while striking out just one. 

The visitors counter with Jameson Taillon, who gave up four hits while going six scoreless against the light-hitting Marlins on Saturday. It was Taillon’s second scoreless effort in his first three starts and suffice it to say, I believe regression is imminent. Note that Taillon was just 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA in all night games last year.

Also note that Pittsburgh is just 4-6 (-3.4 units) in all night games itself this season, while Philadelphia is 8-3 (+4.9 units) in the same position.

I like Arrieta to get the better of his over achieving counterpart. Play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

I had a play on Detroit yesterday and it would hold on for the 6-5 victory. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I believe the home side has the advantage again.

The Orioles turn to the volatile Alex Cobb (0-1, 17.18 ERA), who was rocked in his season debut against the Red Sox on Saturday, giving up eight runs off ten hits over just 3.2 innings of work. 

Cobb owns a lifetime 3.50 ERA in the big leagues, but clearly the veteran hasn’t shaken off the rust at this point.

The home side counters with the equally as erratic Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 8.18), whose last start was cut short because of a come-backer to the face. Previous to that the veteran gave up four earned runs off six hits while striking out eight and walking one in a decent no-decision. 

For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Baltimore has struggled with offensive consistency though, especially in this spot by going just 2-6 (-3.6 units) in all “day” games.

Conversely the Tigers have done quite well in this position by going 5-3 (+2.6 units) in all daytime contests already.

I like Detroit to build off yesterday’s offensive performance and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29 ERA), who earned a no-decision against the Rangers on Friday despite allowing just two runs off three hits and a walk over six innings while also posting a career-high 14 K’s. 

Cole has posted three-straight double-digit strikeout games to begin the year and he enters this one sporting an elite 36/4 K/W through 21 innings thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Mike Leake (2-0, 3.50) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks over six frames in a no-decision against the A’s on Friday. Note that the veteran was just 8-9 with a 4.97 ERA in all night games last year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Leake has been decent, but Cole has arguably been the hottest pitcher in the entire league. 

I’m banking on Cole’s momentum getting carried over here in another dominant effort. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I feel that Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA), who went seven scoreless against the Padres on Thursday, giving up one hit and walking three. It’s hard to completely judge where Stratton is after three straight strong starts, especially considering he was 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA in all “night” games a year ago.

Ray (2-0, 5.74) most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks with six strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. Ray was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last year and he was particularly effective in all night games by going 12-4 with a 2.52 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 3-5 (-1.6 units) in all night games this season, while Arizona is 8-2 (+6.9 units) in the same position. 

Ray has gotten progressively better with each start so far this year and I expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the difference once this one is all said and done.

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (1-1, 3.52 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Rays on Friday. Velasquez was crushed in his season debut, but he’s since settled down with back-to-back gems.

I’m not convinced though that Velasquez has taken the next step at this point. Note that the right-hander was 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA last year, including only 2-5 with a 5.51 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 3.31), whose last start was skipped over because of postponement. McCarthy injured his non-throwing shoulder in his previous outing, but had gone five innings and gave up one earned run and posted three K’s in his time on the mound.

McCarthy has been given the green light this evening and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry his momentum over here.

I think Velasquez is getting far too much respect in this matchup. Great value, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (1-1, 6.60 ERA), who comes in off a win against Toronto on Wednesday, giving up three runs off six hits with three walks over six innings. It was the first time in three tries that Gausman lasted until the sixth frame.

It was a step in the right direction for Gausman, but note that he was just 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA on the road last year and only 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA in all “day” games. 

The home side counters with Matt Boyd (0-1, 1.38 ERA), who earned his way into the starting rotation after a strong spring performance. 

Boyd’s last start was skipped over because of postponement, but previous to that he pitched well in a no-decision, giving up one run over seven innings while striking out four and walking one against the Indians. Boyd has now allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings of work this year.

I’m not convinced that Gausman has turned the corner after one decent start. Boyd however has been sharp now for well over a month and I expect him to carry that momentum over here.

Recent form suggests that Boyd is the correct call here.

Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (10:05 EST). 

So far Shohei Ohtani has lived up to the hype, both on the mound and at the plate for the Angels. However, i think that the hard-hitting Red Sox and David Price offer great value in this spot.

Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) who gave up four runs to the Yanks in the first inning in his last start and was then subsequently pulled after feeling tingling sensations in his throwing hand. Those types of anomalous innings/starts can happen to even the best, and Price would fall victim to one of those types of performance early this season. 

There’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing veteran won’t bounce back here, note that he was 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA on the road last year, including 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA in all “night” games.

Ohtani (2-0, 2.08) is dominating at the plate and in his most recent trip to the hill he’d go seven scoreless against the A’s, posting 12 K’s and giving up one walk.

Both teams have been red hot to open the year. I simply am not reading too much into one crummy outing from Price and believe he can easily bounce back big here. Ohtani has been unbelievable to this point, but regression is imminent. 

Overall great value. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this line could easily be a lot larger when considering the talent gap on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Sal Romano (0-1, 6.46 ERA), who was shelled for four runs off five hits while walking four over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Cards on Thursday. 

Romano has now given up at least three earned runs in all of his three starts this year. Note that Romano was 2-4 with a 5.36 ERA in all “night” games last year and after his team smashed the Brewers 10-4 yesterday, I think he’s going to be in for another long night on Tuesday as well.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.69), who gave up one run off four hits over 5.1 innings, while also striking out four for a victory in his season debut. 48 of his 86 pitches went for strikes and while he benefited from a couple of early double plays, it was a very encouraging sign and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum and focus over here as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 1-7 (-6 units) this year in all “night” games, while Milwaukee is a solid 6-4 (+2.6 units) in the same position. 

Recent form suggests that Romano is in a heap of trouble. I’m banking on the Brewers responding in this favorable matchup after yesterday’s beatdown loss.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (6:40 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (1-1, 2.50 ERA), who went seven scoreless with six K’s in a no-decision against Toronto on Tuesday. Cashner was rocked in his season debut, but he’s since put together back-to-back gems. 

Cashner’s peripherals though are suspect, as his 4.76 FIP dating back to 2016 points to regression sooner than later. Long-story short, I’m not convinced that Cashner has taken the next big step at this point of his career.

The home side counters with the resurgent Francisco Liriano (1-1, 2.13), whose latest start against the Yanks was postponed on Sunday. 

After picking up a win for his new team in his debut, Liriano was sharp in his second outing as well, although received a loss for his effort after allowing two runs over six innings. 

Neither team has been very good this year. For the most part though MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Cashner is getting far too much respect. Liriano had a strong spring and that’s carried over. The veteran has also had a couple extra days off of rest, which will benefit him. 

All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA), who gave up three earned runs off five hits while striking out six over four innings in a loss to Minnesota on Tuesday. 

Keuchel has not found his form quite yet, but I don’t think there’s any need to over react to a couple of mediocre starts.

Clearly Keuchel has the track and pedigree to return to form and that’s exactly what I expect here. Note that he was 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with James Paxton (0-1, 5.74) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk over six innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Wednesday. Paxton struggled in his season opener, but has since put together back-to-back strong efforts coming into this one.

For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’ll point out though that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 75-83 (-5.3 units) the last two years in the same position.

I’m banking on Keuchel and the defending champs doing just enough to secure the victory on Monday night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.96 ERA), who gave up one run off three hits and three walks while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the light-hitting Reds on Tuesday. Despite his shiny ERA, note that Nola’s peripherals don’t look overly impressive at the moment, sporting a 13:8 K:BB through 18.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Julio Teheran (0-1, 7.07), who bounced back from a terrible opener to receive another loss against the Nationals on Monday, this time though giving up two runs off five hits with seven K’s over six innings of work. Teheran’s start was skipped over yesterday, so he’ll be extra fresh here.

Note that Philadelphia is just 3-4 (-1 units) on the road this year, while Atlanta is 4-2 (+3.1 units) at home. 

Nola faces a much stiffer opponent this time around, as ATL has been mashing the ball of late. 

I’m banking on Teheran matching his counterpart inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m jumping on the hard-hitting home side.

Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I feel that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Arizona throttled the over-priced Dodgers 9-1 yesterday as a +180 dog (roughly.) Clearly Clayton Kershaw is a better pitcher than Godley (2-0, 0.64), but the Arizona hurler comes into this one on top form, most recently going seven scoreless against the Giants on Monday, giving up no walks and allowing just four hits to go along with nine K’s. Godley beat Kershaw in his debut and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to match the crafty southpaw inning for inning tonight as well.

Kershaw (0-2, 1.89) most recently gave up one run over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision agains San Francisco on Sunday. 

There’s nothing negative to say about either of these pitchers. As stated above, I simply believe that Godley can easily match pace with Kershaw into the latter frames and in a scenario like that, I think the value absolutely swings to the underdog, especially the way that the Diamondbacks are mashing the ball right now.

Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:10 EST).

I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.41 ERA), who gave up one earned run off six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Over his last two starts Martinez has given up just a single run and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here.

The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (0-2, 3.24), who gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Reds on Tuesday.

Bailey was just 6-9 with a 6.43 ERA last year and he continues to give up too many walks. Suffice it to say, immediate regression seems imminent in my opinion. 

The Cards’ powerful line-up paced to a 6-1 victory yesterday and an even bigger lop-sided blowout is in the cards here.

Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (7:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, both on the mound and at the plate.

The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (1-0, 4.20 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits over 4.1 innings while striking out six and walking five in a no-decision against the Rangers on Monday. Richards has issued 12 free passes so far, but his 19 K’s are nothing to sneeze about after three games.

The home side counters with Jakob Junis (2-0, 0.00) has so far thrown 14 scoreless innings. Junis has been fantastic in the early going, but note that he’s about to run into a buzz saw today in the Angels offense (also note that Junis posted a 4.75 ERA in all “night” games last season.)

The Angels have averaged almost 8.00 RPG over their last 12, while KC has averaged just 3.7. 

I think Richards can match the over-achieving Junis inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m going to lay what I believe to be a very reasonable price on the hard-hitting visiting side.

Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog here, as I do in fact think that Chase Anderson has the advantage over Matt Harvey.

Anderson (0-1, 3.38 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday.

Anderson was 12-4 with a  2.74 ERA last season, including 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA on the road and 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Harvey (0-0, 3.60), who was shelled for four runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out just one over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Sunday. Harvey looked sharp in his first start of the year, but he quickly came back down to Earth in the second. Note that he came into this season having posted a poor 5.78 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP spanning 36 appearances over the past two years. 

The Mets have been on an absolute tear to open the season, but MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I feel that Anderson should in fact be a much larger fav in this particular matchup. 

I like Anderson and the Brewers to score the upset on the road on Saturday night.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (0-0, 4.50 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits while walking two and striking out five in a victory against the Marlins on Sunday. 

Arrieta gave up all of his earned runs in the first inning, but only allowed two base runners after that. 

The home side counters with the volatile Chris Archer (1-0, 5.94), who picked up a win despite giving up four runs off six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in his teams eventual 5-4 win over the White Sox on Monday. 

Over three games (16.2 innings) Archer has now given up three home runs. 

Philadelphia is 5-2 (+3 units) this year in night games, while Tampa Bay is already 0-3 (-3 units) in the same position.

Arrieta’s velocity remains the same as it was last year and I think he improves on his latest outing. Archer continues to struggle and I think he’ll succumb early.

Great value, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST).

I think Zack Greinke will pull off the minor upset against his former team here.

Arizona is in first place in the NL West with a 9-3 record, while LA has stumbled out of the blocks with a 4-7 mark.

Greinke (0-1, 5.06 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against St. Louis, allowing five runs off nine hits over five innings, while also striking out five. Greinke had a decent spring, but so far that hasn’t translated into any sort of success in the regular season. The southpaw was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA at Dodger Stadium last year, but he clearly has the track record and pedigree to turn things around immediately.

The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (1-0, 0.00) who so far in two appearances has looked sharp, most recently throwing a scoreless inning of relief at AT&T Park against the Giants.

I’ll point out though that Maeda had a heck of time when he faced the D-Backs last year, over five starts going 0-2 with a ballooned 7.36 ERA, while allowing 19 runs over 22 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 90-80 (+9.5 units) the last two seasons following a victory, while LA is already just 2-4 (-3.7 units) this season following a loss.

Maeda has been one of the only bright spots on the Dodgers this year, but I think he’ll once again have his hands full with this hard-hitting Arizona line-up. Greinke has for the most part been a bit of a disappointment, but I think he’ll at the very least match Maeda inning for inning. 

And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the surging underdog.

Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (8:15 EST).

LA has has won four straight, while the Royals have as many wins as LA has losses (three.) 

The Angels come into this one on fire at the plate, averaging six or more runs in six of their last eight games. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, who makes his season debut tonight. Last year he was injured as well, but he comes in off a decent spring and the southpaw has been given the green light this evening.

The Royals have averaged just 3.1 runs per nine innings over their last ten games and the rotation has a 4.10 ERA collectively in the same span. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 4.09), who comes in off a no-decision against the Tribe on Sunday, holding them six scoreless in the eventual 3-1 setback. In his debut he’d get shelled for five runs over five innings. 

I’ll point out that LA is 8-2 in its last ten against teams with a winning percentage below 40, while KC is just 1-5 in its last six starts made by Hammel.

I’m going to go with the hotter hitting team in this one. I think these pitchers are a “wash,” but clearly the Angels are mashing right now and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t continue that trend this evening.

All things considered a great price, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10 EST).

Pittsburgh took the series with the Cubs yesterday (2-1), finishing up with a 6-1 victory. The Pirates are on fire at the plate early, averaging a whopping 7.53 runs per nine innings over their last six. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (1-0, 5.06 ERA), who looked decent in a no decision against the Reds in his last outing. giving up two earned runs off five hits to go along with seven K’s over five innings of work, including no home runs.

The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league, due to major turnover and injury. The Fish are waiting for both JT Riddle and Martin Prado to return still. 

The home side turns to the volatile Dillon Peters (1-1, 9.35), who after going six scoreless against the Cubs in his season debut, would get shelled for nine runs off nine hits over 2.2 innings in a 20-1 loss to the Phillies in his latest action. 

Not much was expected of Miami this season and so far the Marlins have lived up to those expectations. Not much was expected of the Pirates either, but so far Pittsburgh has exceeded expectations to this point.

I think Kuhl gets the big nod on the mound in this matchup and I like Pittsburgh to carry over its momentum at the plate in this favorable matchup.

Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST).

Both teams are under .500 in the early stages of the season, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side.

This is the opener of an 11-day, ten-game road trip for San Francisco and clearly it’ll be motivated to get it started off on the “right foot.” Keep your eyes on slugger Buster Posey, who has opened the year on a tear, going 14 for 30 with two home runs and six RBI’s during a nine-game hitting run. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (0-1, 4.35 ERA), who has faced the Dodgers twice to open the season and who would give up five earned runs off nine hits over ten innings of work. Clearly Stratton has a much more favorable matchup here against the light-hitting Friars (note that Stratton posted a solid 3.29 ERA over 27.1 spring innings.)

The Padres ended their road trip in Colorado yesterday with a loss and a bench clearing brawl. I think the team comes in distracted and flat-footed after the drama yesterday. 

The home side hands the ball to Bryan Mitchell (0-1, 4.22), who was shelled in his season debut, but who bounced back to hold the Rockies scoreless over 5.2 innings last weekend. 

I like Stratton to settle down here in this pitcher friendly park and I give him the slight nod in this matchup as despite his decent outing last time out, Mitchell’s consistency is called into question until we see a larger sample size.

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I had a play on Boston in its 14-1 win in the opener of this series and then I would come back again with the Red Sox in their unfortunate 10-7 setback yesterday.

I’m back on the horse again on Thursday though. 

The Yanks had lost four of five before yesterday’s victory. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, who is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, five walks and 12 K’s over ten innings of work so far this year. In his latest action he’d give up three runs to the Orioles on Saturday. 

I’ll point out though that Gray has struggled throughout his career against the Red sox, going just 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA over 34.2 career innings. Note that Gray has been horrible at Fenway as well, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.841 WHIP spanning 14.2 frames.

The home side counters with Rick Porcello, who is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, one walk and 11 K’s over 11.2 innings thus far. Porcello has had decent success against the Yanks throughout his career, going 8-8 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.225 WHIP with 29 walks and 89 K’s spanning 118.1 innings opposed. Note that he’s 28-20 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.284 WHIP, with 63 walks and 293 K’s over 53 career starts at Fenway.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 1-5 in its last six road games against right-handed starters, while Boston is 4-0 in its last four home games against a right-handed starter.

I give Porcello the slight nod in this matchup and I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. All things considered I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (6:40 EST).

This is the opener of a four-game set between the teams and the first matchup between the clubs this season. Last year the Cards won the season series 10-9. 

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha, who gave up two runs over five innings in a win over Arizona in his latest action. Wacha has to be feeling pretty confident here, as he’s dominated the Reds throughout his career, going 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts against them.

So far St. Louis comes into this one ranked middle of the pack in scoring with an average of 4.09 runs per game.

Cincinnati is averaging 3.10 RPG, while also holding a league worst 6.04 combined ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Sal Romano, who was shelled for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates in his latest action. Over 98 innings in the big leagues Romano has issued 48 walks. 

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 16-5 in Wacha’s last 21 road starts against teams with a losing record, while Cincinnati is a poor 3-12 in its last 15 against right-handed starters. 

I think the Reds’ offensive issues carry over here and I look for Wacha to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Great price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Red Sox last night and they’d go on to post a 14-1 victory. While a blowout of that size is likely out of the cards in this one, I think we’re once again getting great value on the home side in this matchup.

Mookie Betts hit a grand slam in the lop-sided destruction yesterday. 

Tonight the visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who was 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA against the Red Sox last season. Tanaka has given up just ten earned runs over 36 1/3’s innings of work at Fenway Park. 

Boston sends David Price to the hill, who posted a 6-3, 3.32 ERA in all 11 starts last season. Price though comes in on top form, shutting out Tampa Bay twice to open the season, allowing just seven hits, while striking out ten in that span. Note that Price was 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts against New York last year. 

For arguments sake, let’s call these staters a “wash.” The Yanks are struggling at the plate right now though, especially slugger Giancarlo Stanton. 

Boston’s offense is firing on all cylinders, as evidenced by yesterday’s barrage. All signs point to another comfortable victory for the hard-hitting home side in my opinion. 

As mentioned off the top, I feel that this is great line value. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

NO ACTION, PITCHING CHANGE

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (2:15 EST).

Seattle has been dealing with early injuries, but it comes in at .500 after eight games. 

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton, who comes in 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after two starts so far this season.

Paxton looked decent though in his last outing against the Twins, going five scoreless before surrounding a two-run home run in the sixth for a no-decision. Paxton has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, last year at Kaufman he gave up two runs off four hits while striking out seven over six innings in the victory.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy, who is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA after two starts. Duffy is not the same pitcher as he was in 2015 and since then he’s gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six appearances against Seattle.

I’ll point out as well that KC is already just 1-4 (-3.4 units) in its last five when the obey line in the contest is in the +125 to -125 range, while Seattle is 20-8 (+9.2 units) in its last 28 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts lifetime against the Royals and I think he’ll get the better of his volatile counterpart tonight. Great price, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

NO PLAY, PITCHING CHANGE

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this line could easily be a lot larger.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Brent Suter (1-1, 6.30 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off eight hits in an 8-0 loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Suter showed potential in 2017 with a 3-2, 3.42 ERA, but clearly third-year pro is struggling across the board right now.

The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.84), who enters off a gem against these very Brewers on Wednesday, going eight scoreless and striking out ten, while giving up just two walks. Martinez struggled in his season debut, but the veteran settled down nicely in his second outing and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have.

Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Suter is in for another long night here. Martinez has the home field advantage and I expect him to easily out duel his overmatched counterpart.

Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-Club Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

I think Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros are well worth the price of admission in this one.

Keuchel (0-1, 3.27 ERA) gave up two runs (just one earned) off five hits and four walks while striking out three over five innings in what turned out to be a no decision in his last outing. Keuchel has laboured some to open the 2018 season, but I don’t think there’s any need to panic.

Keuchel should feel pretty confident here as well, not only with this potent line-up backing him up, but also because he was 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 2.61) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks with two K’s over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday. 

Odorizzi looked shaky on the mound, throwing just 12 first pitch strikes to 21 opponents and just 48 K’s out of 87 total pitches. 

Odorizzi posted a brilliant season debut, but he quickly came back down to Earth in his second outing. And simply put, I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the hard-throwing right-hander here against the defending champs (note that Odorizzi was just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all “home” situations last season.)

Keuchel has been above average, but hasn’t nearly reached his “normal” form. I think that changes tonight though. Odorizzi closed 2017 decently and while he looked sharp in his opener, his second start was a stark reminder on why the Rays let him walk so easily.

I’m banking on Keuchel out duelling Odorizzi. Lay the price, play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry