Cappers Sports Picks

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Mets closed their series at the Padres with a 6-4 win yesterday, but I think they’ll stumble in the opener on the road in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Stephen Matz (4-8, 3.65 ERA) who was crushed by the Yankees on Saturday, allowing five runs off nine hits over five innings in the loss. Matz has been serviceable this year, but this latest effort definitely leaves concerns moving forward in my opinion. 

The home side counters with Nick Kingham (5-4, 4.11) who gave up two runs off four hits with three K’s over seven innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham comes into this one on top form, having posted thee straight quality outings to go along with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 17/4 K/W spanning 18.2 innings. 

And note that Kingham has been especially good in front of the home town crowd with the 3-1, 2.90 ERA record thus far.

The Mets are 9-9 in July, but the Pirates are now 14-6 (+10.4 units) this month. I like the home side to carry its momentum over in the opener of this series. Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:05 EST).

The Royals fell 8-4 at home to the Tigers, but I think they offer fantastic value in this bounce back spot as a massive underdog. The Yanks have the best offense in the league, but Jake Junis looked much better in his first start back from the DL and in the second half and I think he’ll outlast his volatile counterpart tonight.

Junis (5-10, 5.03 ERA) posted quality outings in six of his first seven trips to the hill this season and then he’d injure his back and his season would take a turn for the worse. After going on the DL and coming back from the All Star break though, Junis looked sharp against the Twins last weekend, giving up one run off four hits with six K’s over four innings in a no-decision. 

Junis has had issues this season, but so too has Yanks’ starter Sonny Gray.

Gray (7-7, 5.34 ERA) earned a win over the anemic Mets last weekend, giving up three runs and three walks over 5.1 innings. He may have won back-to-back starts, but clearly his win/loss record could be a lot worse this year if not backed by MLB’s No. 1 offense. 

Note that Gray is a terrible 3-3 with a 7.62 ERA at home this season as well. 

I think Junis can match Gray inning for inning (at least) and in a scenario like that, I think the odds swing in favor of the hungry dog. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland A’s (8:05 EST).

Oakland mounted an improbable come from behind 13-10 win over the Rangers last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (1-2, 2.93 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with six K’s over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Giants on Friday. The veteran though has been solid overall, having posted a quality effort in four of his five trips to the hill for his new team. Over 30.2 innings he’s posted the 2.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP to go along with 23 K’s.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (2-4, 8.05) who gave up five runs off ten hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Friday. 

Perez for the most part has been a disaster this year, especially at home where he’s gone 1-1 with a ballooned 10.05 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 33-21 (+19 units) on the road this year, while Texas is just 20-31 (-10.8 units) at home. 

Look for Jackson to continue his steady play and for Perez to slide again as the A’s jump all over this dejected Rangers side. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (9*) 2:15 EST

I think the Royals will build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (4-9, 4.62 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Boyd stumbled down the stretch of the first half and he comes into this one with the sub-par 1-6, 5.77 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (6-8, 4.40) who gave up one run off five hits while striking out four over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Friday. Duffy has now allowed just one earned run to go along with 21 K’s over his last 20 innings of work. He’s also posted quality efforts in five of his last seven outings. 

I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Duffy is throwing right now. Boyd had a decent outing in his first start back from the break, but I think he’ll stumble again here on the road. 

All things considered, a very fair price. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 2:10 EST

I had a play on Milwaukee last night and it would come from behind to knock off the Nationals. On Wednesday though I think the visitors will bounce back and find a way to get the job done.

The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark (3-12, 4.87 ERA) who gave up four runs with five K’s over five innings in a loss to New York in his last start before the break. Roark’s win/loss record isn’t entirely indicative of how he’s performed this year, as he comes in sporting a 1.40 WHIP and a 98/43 K/W over 114.2 innings of work to this point. Also note that while he’s just 1-6 on the road, he’s posted a very respectable 3.62 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

The home side counters with Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.65), who has been called up to make this start. Peralta has looked sharp in his limited time in the big leagues, but clearly the rookie draws a tough task this afternoon.

I think Roark gets back on track here with a solid effort after the break, while I believe the rookie Peralta will stumble finally against this revenge-minded and talented Nationals’ line-up. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 12:35 EST

Philadelphia battled from behind and won 7-4 yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (4-2, 3.45 ERA) who has been called up to make his first start of the second half. Buehler was decent in Triple-A, but he’s expected to be on a pitch count in this one. 

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.47) who gave up five runs off six hits while striking out two over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Padres on Friday. He’d give up four runs in the first and then was never able to catch up after that. Arrieta hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid in all home games with a  3-2, 3.02 ERA record to this point.

I think Arrieta will bounce back at home (or at the very least, outlast his counterpart) and I look for the hungry Phillies to build off yesterday’s victory. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night and then go on the other team the following night), but as i’ve stated many times in the past, clearly MLB is the one sport in which you have to look at each game individually, because of the starting pitchers.

And that’s the case on Tuesday, as I think the Brewers will in fact build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory with another winning effort.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) who put together a phenomenal first half (considering he was 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA a year ago.) I have doubts on whether Hellickson can maintain his first half pace over the second though.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) who was far from perfect over the first half, but who was solid none-the-less. Note that Guerra was especially good at home with a sharp 2.55 ERA as well. 

The Nationals are now 26-25 (-3.1 units) on the road this year and 49-50 overall. Milwaukee on the other hand is 32-20 (+10.3 units) in all home games and 57-45 overall. 

I think Guerra out-duels Hellickson, who looks poised for a “second half swoon.” Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Phillies look to bounce back after yesterday’s slim defeat with their ace on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12 ERA) who after going 13-6 with a 4.22 ERA last season, has so far looked just as good this year as well. It’s hard to say anything negative about Maeda, so I won’t even bother trying.

I simply feel that he’s completely outclassed in this one.

Philadelphia comes in confident sending Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30) to the hill. Nola lost 2-0 to Miami in his final first half start, but he’s still thrown five straight quality starts and note that he’s been unbeatable at home to this point, going 8-0 with a tiny 1.71 ERA in friendly confines thus far.

Maeda has been great, but Nola’s dominance at home is the difference maker in this one. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is a very fair price. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I like the Orioles to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA), who after a lengthy stay on the DL and a few games in the minors, makes his return to the big leagues tonight. Pomeranz looked good in the minors, but I have a hard time seeing how he can be such a big favorite right out of the gate here, despite the Red Sox’ superior hitting line-up. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in all night games this season.

The home side counters with Yefry Ramirez (0-3, 3.09) who closed the first half with a gem against Texas, allowing only two hits with three walks and seven K’s over five scoreless innings of work. 

Ramirez now looks to build off his best start in the majors and improve upon his respectable 3.09 ERA and 24/9 K/W over 23.1 innings of work.

This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Atlanta Braves (12:10 EST).

I think the Braves will build off yesterday’s 12-1 beatdown victory and find a way to get the job done on Tuesday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.00 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless in a victory over Arizona in his final first half start. He also had six K’s. He also only needed 79 pitches to get through the outing. Over his last two trips to the mound Teheran has now allowed one run spanning 13 innings of work. Note that he owns a respectable 3.86 ERA on the road thus far as well.

The home side goes with Wei-Yin Chen (2-7, 5.75) who gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight in a loss to the Phillies in his final start before the All Star game. Previous to this gem though he’d been rocked for seven runs over 4.1 innings. 

Chen’s ERA is horrible and his 1.50 WHIP and 57/28 K/W over 72 innings is nothing to write home about either. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta is already 21-13 (+11 units) this year in all day games, while Miami is just 14-20 in all day contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (9*) 8:10 EST

Milwaukee was annihilated 11-2 at home by the Dodgers on Sunday and I think it’ll suffer another letdown here as well.

Washington was busy at home with Atlanta over the weekend, but I look for it to get the job done here with veteran Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72 ERA) had his Saturday start postponed due to rain. In his final outing before the break he’d give up two runs with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. He stumbled down the stretch before the break, but I think he’ll rebound here. 

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (8-3, 3.68) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his final first half start. Chacin has been sharp this year, but I think he’ll struggle against the Nationals’ big bats.

Note as well that Milwaukee is just 2-6 in its last eight against left-handed starters, while Washington is 38-31 against right-handed starters this season. 

Lay the price, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Luis Castillo and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who makes his season debut here. Poncedeleon posted a complete game shutout in Triple-A action most recently, part of a four-game win streak. Clearly the sky is the limit for Poncedeleon, but I still think he’ll have his hands full in this one.

Castillo (5-8, 5.49) looked decent in his final outing before the break, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against St. Louis on Saturday. 

Castillo has been far from perfect this season, but he’s been at his best at home so far this year with a  3-3, 4.10 ERA record thus far.

No excuses for Castillo in this one, who showed flashes of his 2017 brilliance over the first half, but who for the most part was a disappointment for Cincinnati. 

But here’s the perfect opportunity to get back on track. He’s rested out of the break and he’s facing a rookie in his debut. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:10 EST

Sean Newcomb started the year on fire for the Braves, but the crafty southpaw stumbled before the break. Jose Urena has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) had his first start back from the break postponed due to rain in Washington over the weekend. In his final start before the break he’d concede three runs over six innings in a loss to Arizona. 

The break though couldn’t have come at a better time for Newcomb, as I predict he comes out refocused with the extra time off. Note that he’s still 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA on the road this season and 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA in all night games.

Urena (2-9, 4.39) was rocked for five runs off four hits with four walks over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia in his final first half start. 

As mentioned off the top, Urena has been better than what his win/loss record would point to, but note that he’s still 0-7 with a 4.26 ERA at home this year.

I like Newcomb to at the very least match Urena and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting Braves have a major advantage. Lay the price, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST).

The Braves/Nationals was postponed on Saturday due to rain. Atlanta was one of the biggest surprises over the first half of the 2018 MLB season and I think it offers great value as a big underdog in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 2.66 ERA) who earned a win over Toronto in his final start before the break, giving up five runs off six hits while striking out six over seven innings. Note that he had a shutout going into the seventh frame. To go along with his elite ERA, Foltynewicz also owns an elite 120/42 K/W over 101.2 frames of work (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in all day games this season.)

The home side counters with ace Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41), who got the start for the NL in the All Star Game after posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 182/34 K/W over 134.2 innings of work over the first half. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Scherzer, so I won’t bother.

I simply expect that Foltynewicz, who comes in rested and on top form, will be able to match Scherzer inning for inning.

And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (3:05 EST).

The Tribe smashed the Rangers 16-3 yesterday and I think another beatdown is in the cards on Sunday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger (7-5, 3.47 ERA) who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to the Yankees in his final start before the All Star Game. The break couldn’t have come at a better time for Clevinger, who definitely appeared to be running out of steam after an overall successful first half. 

Clevinger though has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 8.60) who gave up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his final start before the break. To go along with his atrocious 8.60 ERA, note that Gallardo also owns a horrible 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 20/13 K/W over just 30.1 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 17-10 (+3.9 units) against left-handed starters this year, while Texas is 28-39 (-6.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

I’m expecting Clevinger to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Matt Harvey and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ivan Nova (5-6, 4.38 ERA) who left after 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his final start before the All Star Game, giving up one run off seven hits. 

Nova’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, but one thing which is definitely certain is that he’s been much better at home (2.92 ERA), than on the road (5.94).

Harvey (5-5, 4.63 ERA) entered the All Star Game off four straight victories, giving up one run over five innings while striking out five in a victory over St. Louis in the final one. Harvey has quietly been dominating of late, giving up two earned runs or fewer over five straight trips to the hill. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Nova’s inconstancies are poised to rear their ugly head again here. Harvey on the other hand is enjoying a resurgence of sorts and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here, especially with a little extra time off to rest. Great price, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the San Francisco Giants (9:05 EST).

I like the Giants to build off their 5-1 victory last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (3-3, 2.90 ERA) who after a couple of shaky starts to open his 2018 campaign (started the year on the DL), would close the first half strong. The veteran will clearly have benefited from the extra time off and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his 2.44 ERA in all night games this season.

The home side counters with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 3.10) who spent some time on the DL before the All Star break. The sample size is simply too small to get an accurate read at where Cahill is right now. He’s 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA on the road.

I’ll point out though that San Francisco is a solid 32-27 (+8.2 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Oakland is just 15-17 (-1.1 units) against southpaws this year.

I think Cahill comes in rusty, while I believe the extra rest does Bumgarner good. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (9*) 7:15 EST

Nick Tropeano has been one of LA’s most consistent starters this season, but I still think that Justin Verlander and the defending champs are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

Verlander (9-5, 2.29 ERA) leads the league in many categories already this season and note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA to this point.

Tropeano (3-4, 4.83) returns from the DL after the break for his first start since early June. Note though that Tropeano is a poor 0-2 with a 6.12 ERA at home so far this year.

I’ll point out additionally that Houston is 17-9 (+3.5 units) already this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while LA is just 1-3 (-1.6 units) this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

No upsets here, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST

I had a play on Pittsburgh yesterday and it went on to smash the Reds 12-1. Suffice it to say, I think its “payback time” for the home side on Saturday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Kingham (4-4, 4.26 ERA) who endured an up and down first half. While his 1.15 WHIP and 42/11 K/W are both decent, his 4.26 ERA leaves everything to be desired. Also note that the rookie is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA on the road, compared to 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA at home.

The Reds counter with Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 5.32) who closed the first half much like his counterpart. DeSclafani has looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but note that he’s still a decent 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 1-6 (-5.0 units) in its last seven after scoring 12 or more runs in its previous contest, while Cincinnati is 15-9 in its last 24 after allowing ten or more runs in its previous game.

This one has “bounce back” written all over it for the Reds. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10 EST).

I think that Jameson Taillon offers great value in this particular matchup.

Taillon (6-7, 3.91 ERA) finished the first half with consecutive strong outings and I think he can carry that momentum over here. Note that Taillon is so far 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with the volatile Tyler Mahle (7-7, 4.02) who also finished first half with a couple of decent outings, but who has been much more inconsistent overall than Taillon. Note that Mahle is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home and 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games too.

I think Taillon’s recent form continues in his first start back from the break and I look for the Pirates to take advantage of this overall favorable matchup. 

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (8:15 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Twins go with Kyle Gibson (4-6, 3.42 ERA) who finished the first half with a couple of decent outings and who will now look to improve upon his extremely respectable 2-2, 2.84 ERA record on the road.

The home side goes with the volatile Danny Duffy (5-8, 4.59) who comes in off his strongest effort of the year, striking out nine over six shutout frames in an unfortunate no-decision to these very Twins ten days ago.

Duffy though has been consistently inconsistent all year, especially at home where he’s an abysmal 0-4 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA.

I like Gibson to continue his strong play on the road and I think the extra time off will do him some good here. The Twins will be out to get Duffy back after he stymied them last week and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is great line value.

Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I believe that this line could easily be a lot higher considering the talent discrepancy on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Clayton Richard (7-8, 4.43 ERA) who closed the first half with a couple of shaky performances. Richard was more “miss” than “hit” over the first half and he’ll enter this one sporting a poor 5-5, 5.04 ERA record on the road to this point.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.23) who closed the first half with a couple of strong performances and who enters with a sharp 3-2, 2.53 ERA record at home thus far. Note that he’s also 6-4 with a 2.54 ERA in all night games as well.

Richard has been terrible on the road here and he draws a tough first matchup after the break. Arrieta on the other hand has to be pretty excited facing the anemic Friars. No upset on Friday, lay the price with confidence, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

Ultimately I don’t believe that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (3-4, 3.24 ERA) who for the most part was extremely solid for the Cards over the first half. Flaherty was decent on the road (1-2, 3.41), but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because the home side goes with the red hot Jon Lester (12-2, 2.58) who closed the first half strong, especially at home (5-1, 1.98) and in all day games (7-0, 2.22). 

The extra time off is going to benefit the veteran here as well, while Flaherty would seem more susceptible to “rust” in my opinion. 

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 3-7 in its last ten as a road dog in the -130 to +130 range, while Chicago is 14-10 in its last 24 as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range. 

I’m banking on Lester out-duelling Flaherty and for the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound. Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (1:10 EST).

I like Washington to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (3-1, 3.47 ERA) who for the most part, aside from one disastrous outing, has been “better than advertised” for the Nationals this season. Note that the veteran has been at his best on the road as well by going 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA.

The home side counters with Corey Oswalt (0-2, 6.75) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out two over four innings in against the Jays on Wednesday. Oswalt owns a 5.32 ERA in Triple-A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is 40-28 in its last 68 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while New York is already a terrible 9-16 (-8.3 units) at home this season when the money line is set between -130 and +130.

Everything points to the Nationals bouncing back big in this favorable matchup and off of yesterday’s loss. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (1:10 EST).

I had a play on the Yankees yesterday, and I like them again in a slight upset role on Sunday afternoon as well.

New York hands the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.68 ERA) who completed a 69-pitch rehab start last week for Triple-A Scranton, giving up two runs over five innings. Tanaka hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s still a respectable 5-0 with a 4.51 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 3.99 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with the red hot Trevor Bauer (8-6, 2.23) who gave up two runs with eight K’s over 7.2 innings in a victory over the punchless Royals. It’s hard to say anything negative about Bauer, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

As note that the Tribe are in fact just 17-24 (-14.8 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Conversely the Yankees are 31-13 (+14.5 units) against winning teams this season.

I’m banking on Tanaka matching the over-achieving Bauer inning for inning and for the Yankee’s potent line-up to do the rest. Play on the Yanks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST).

I like San Francisco to build off yesterday’s commanding 7-1 victory. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (1-2, 5.75 ERA) who went five scoreless innings in a victory over the Indians last week. It was his first start back since May with a shoulder issue and while he excelled in that one, I think some predictable regression is in store on the road and in this National League format. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (1-5, 6.42) who returned from the DL on Saturday to give up three runs off seven hits with three K’s over five innings in a loss to the Cards. 53 of his 81 pitches went for strikes and it was an admirable showing in his first action in over a month.

For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’ll point out though that the A’s are just 1-5 in their last six after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, while the Giants are 30-17 (+11.2 units) in all home games this season.

I’m banking on San Francisco taking advantage of this favorable matchup.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (9*) 7:15 EST

I like the Yanks to avenge yesterday’s 6-5 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.34 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in a loss on Monday, allowing five runs over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. 

Over his previous seven starts though Sabathia hadn’t allowed more than three runs, so I’m not going to over-react to one shaky outing. 

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (7-4, 3.34) who was rocked for five runs off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Monday. 

Clevinger has been solid overall this year, but I’ll point out that that the Tribe have struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going just 16-24 (-15.8 units) against clubs with winning records and just 2-4 (-2.1 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

Conversely this is a position in which the Yanks have excelled in, going 31-12 (+15.8 units) against teams with winning records and 8-5 (+2.7 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the St. Louis Cardinals (4:10 EST).

I had a play on the Reds in their upset 9-1 victory last night, but I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. 

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.58 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Castillo for the most part has been a disappointment this season, note that he’s just 2-5 with a 6.71 ERA on the road as well.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.34) who gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco on Sunday. Flaherty has admittedly struggled a bit over his last two starts, but note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in all day games this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is still just 15-27 (-9.2 units) this year against the division, while St. Louis is 25-16 (+7.4 units) against divisional foes this season.

I’m banking on the home side getting a little revenge after yesterday’s humbling defeat. Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 4:10 EST

I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team (take one team one night and then come back with the other side the following night.) However, MLB is the one sport where every game has to be looked at individually because of the starting pitching. 

I think the Diamondbacks will build off their hard-fought 2-1 win last night and find a way to get the job done here as well.

Arizona goes with Zack Greinke (9-5, 3.39 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five K’s over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. It was a rare inefficient outing for Greinke, although he’d go 1 for 2 with a run scored, while also collecting his third stolen base of the season.

The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (8-4, 3.44) whose early gains now look unsustainable after back-to-back crummy outings. Most recently he was rocked for five earned runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. In his previous start he was smashed for five runs over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks. 

I think Newcomb’s slide into mediocrity continues on Saturday afternoon and I look for the veteran Greinke to take advantage. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 4:10 EST

I had a play on the Mets last night and I think the home side will build off that victory with another winning effort on Saturday afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Austin Voth (0-0, 0.00 ERA), as he makes his major league debut in this one. Over 15 starts in Triple-A he’s posted a 3.55 ERA.

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.42) who gave up three runs over 4.2 innings, while also striking out eight in a no-decision to Philadelphia on Monday. Wheeler would induce 16 swinging strikes, but he was inefficient, needing 102 pitches. Note that he’s been decent in all day games though with a respectable 3.34 ERA.

The sky is the limit for Voth, but Wheeler is the correct call here. I’m banking on the home side taking advantage of this favorable matchup, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (8:15 EST).

I think that the “under the radar” Matt Harvey and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. 

Harvey (4-5, 4.80 ERA) most recently allowed three runs (just two earned) off nine hits and a walk over 5.2 innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the Cubs on Saturday. Harvey would throw 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes and he’s now posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 20/5 K/W over 29 innings over his last five starts. 

The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (6-4, 3.05) who picked up a victory over the Giants on Saturday, allowing one run over seven innings while striking out three. It was his third straight victory and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative against Martinez, who has bounced back after a shaky stretch. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

As note that the Reds are 14-8 (+8.2 units) in their last 22 after allowing ten or more runs in their previous contest (off the humbling 19-4 loss to Cleveland) while St. Louis is already 7-9 (-6.1 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range this year. 

I like Harvey to match Martinez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hungry dog in my opinion. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (9*) 8:10 EST

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

The visitors hand the ball to Brad Keller (2-3, 2.52 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and five walks over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. He’d only generate four swinging strikes on 89 pitches and I think he’s going to struggle again on the road here.

The home side counters with James Shields (3-10, 4.53) who comes in off an outing to forget as well, getting rocked for eight earned runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to Houston on Saturday. Over five previous starts spanning 31.1 innings of work, Shields had allowed just seven earned runs, so there’s no question that he “came back down to Earth” in this one.

Shields though catches a big break in this bounce back start by facing the Royals’ anemic line-up. 

I like Shields to indeed bounce back in friendly confines, while I believe everything points to another letdown for the rookie Keller.

Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:35 EST

The D-Backs’ Zack Godley has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and I simply don’t trust him whatsoever in this difficult venue.

The Braves’ Anibal Sanchez is likely pitching “over his head” right now, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to out duel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Godley (10-6, 4.80 ERA) was pressed into service during a 16 inning 4-3 loss to San Diego on Sunday, going a scoreless frame while posting two K’s and a walk. In his previous outing he’d give up just one run off four hits over six innings in a win over San Diego as well. Godley’s admittedly bounced back after a tough stretch, but he still sports a poor 5.82 ERA on the road.

Sanchez (4-2, 2.72) gave up one earned run off two hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. Sanchez only needed 82 pitches to get through the effort, throwing 57 of them for strikes. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA at home as well.

I’ll point out that Arizona has struggled against the “better” teams, going just 11-23 (-13.6 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Conversely, Atlanta has stepped its game up this year, going 29-18 (+17.3 units) against teams with winning records.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I think this line could in fact be much larger. Great value, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. 

The visitors go with Tanner Roark (3-11, 4.76 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off ten hits over four innings while striking out five and walking three in a loss to the Marlins on Sunday. In his previous start he was rocked for nine earned runs, so this was actually an improvement (was his fourth loss in a row.) 

The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 3.06) who returns since going out in May with a strained ligament in his finger. In his final rehab assignment he’d allow one run over five innings. 

“Thor” will be on a pitch count, but I still think that he’ll have more than enough to out duel his “gas can” counterpart.

Both teams are struggling right now, but I look for Syndergaard to come in fresh and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the very reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST).

The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta bounced back with a sharp performance in his last outing and I firmly believe he’ll carry that momentum over here.

Arrieta (6-6, 3.47 ERA) most recently allowed two runs off six hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a win over the Pirates on Saturday. It was the first time since May 29th that he’s made it into the seventh frame and his first win since then, but regardless I think it was a big step in the right direction.

The home side counters with Wei-Yin Chen (2-6, 6.14) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he was tagged for seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals on Saturday. Chen has struggled all year and he comes in sporting a cruddy 1.55 WHIP as well. 

Chen has been better at home than on the road, but I’ll point out that the Marlins are still just 27-37 in all night games this year, while Philadelphia is 31-27 (+4.3 units) in the same position.

Look for Arrieta to take advantage of this favorable matchup and to outlast his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Pirates in their slight upset at home yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (1-0, 1.42 ERA) who comes off the DL to make this start. Miley looked good over four re-hab outings and he’s been given the green light to go here. Note that in 2017 he was 8-15 with a 5.61 ERA.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (5-7, 4.05) who comes in off a hard-luck loss to Philadelphia on Saturday, giving up three runs off five hits over 6.2 innings while striking out six as well. Taillon would go on to throw 60 of his 77 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year. 

Note that Milwaukee is now 19-21 (-2.6 units) against the division this season, while Pittsburgh is 19-16 (+4.5 units) against divisional opponents. 

Miley’s looked good in his limited time this season, but he’s still a big question mark heading back for his first start in over a month. Taillon though has once again rounded into form and I’m fully expecting him to carry that progression over here. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST).

I like the Cardinals to build off their big beatdown victory over the hapless White Sox on Tuesday and find a way to get the job done again on Wednesday.

The visitors hand the ball to Luke Weaver (5-7, 4.92 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Giants on Thursday, giving up two runs off two hits with no walks while striking out seven over eight innings in the eventual victory. It was a big step in the right direction and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here.

The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Rodon (1-3, 4.29) who gave up two runs off five hits and six walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Astros on Thursday. 

Rodon hasn’t been completely horrible this year, but he’s still 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA in all night games this season.

St. Louis is now 9-2 (+5.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is just 11-16 (-4.6 units) at home when the money line in the contest falls between the -130 to +130 range. 

For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I think this matchup highly favors the Cards though and I look for them to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I think the Orioles will build off yesterday’s 6-5 victory. 

The visitors go with the volatile Sonny Gray (5-7, 5.85 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over two innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. 

Gray is stumbling towards the half way mark, having allowed 11 runs over his last two starts, spanning just 4.1 innings of work. Note that he’s a dismal 2-6 with a 7.33 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (6-8, 4.08) who returned from the DL on Friday and promptly got smashed for six runs (five earned) off nine hits over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Twins. Prior to landing on the DL he’d gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, so one shaky outing isn’t anything to get too worried about in my opinion. 

Bundy was hampered by an ankle injury, something not easy to shake. But with proper rest between starts, he’s good to go here and I’m expecting a much more solid effort at home, where he’s already owns a respectable 3.99 ERA. 

I like Bundy to out duel Gray and I look for the hungry Orioles to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 EST).

I like the Pirates to respond here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat.   

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.76 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits with four walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Friday. 

Gonzalez hasn’t won since May 28th and to go along with his now pedestrian ERA, note that he owns a mediocre 1.47 WHIP and 90/47 K/W over 95.2 innings of work. Note as well that he’s just 3-3 with a  4.49 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-7, 4.60) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Phillies on Friday, allowing five runs over 2.1 innings. Williams has struggled to a 4.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 94 innings thus far, but I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the Pirates have responded well in all year so far, going 7-3 in their last ten after scoring one or less runs in their previous outing.

Despite yesterday’s victory, the Nat’s still come into this one having gone a horrible 15-19 (-14.4 units) in all “day” games this year.

I like Williams to bounce back and for the Pirates to avenge yesterday’s setback. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) 8:40 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.05 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and two walks over six innings in a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday. Corbin has been solid all year and he’s actually been better on the road than at home, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.90) who has now gone back-to-back games of eight shutout innings, most recently over the Giants on Wednesday. Over that span he’s posted a 17/3 K/W. in fact over a six-start stretch Anderson has posted a 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 41/8 K/W. Note as well that he’s been particularly good in all night games with a 5-1, 3.86 ERA record thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is just 10-22 (-13.6 units) this year against clubs with wining records, while Colorado is 20-17 (+4.9 units) in the same position. 

I think Corbin struggles at hitter Friendly Coors and I look for Anderson and the home side to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8*) 8:10 EST

While this one favors the Cardinals on paper, I do in fact believe that it sets up nicely overall for the home side to score the upset on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (9-3, 2.63 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with four walks over six innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Mikolas has been extremely effective this year, but his strikeout numbers are in fact pretty poor (6.2 K/9.)

The home side counters with Dylan Covey (3-4, 5.54) who comes in off a loss against the Reds on Wednesday, allowing six runs over 3.2 innings. After a great start, Covey has come back down to Earth. He enters with a 38/24 K/W over 50.1 innings of work thus far. 

I’ll point out though that St. Louis is just 25-27 (-9 units) this year in all night games, while Chicago is 33-28 (+19.7 units) in its last 61 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

Looks like the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

Both teams had the night off on Monday. I think the shift to the NL format will throw Marcus Stroman “off his game” tonight and I look for Julio Teheran and the home side to take advantage.

Stroman (1-6, 6.50 ERA) comes in off a terrible outing against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing six runs and four walks while striking out two over 4.2 innings. Stroman looked decent in two straight starts following a short stint on the DL, but he’d return to his early shoddy form after this disastrous outing. To go along with his atrocious ERA, note that he also sports an uninspiring 1.57 WHIP. 

Teheran (6-6, 4.47) returns from the DL after a short stint with an illness. Previous to that he’d allow five runs and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Yankees. The silver lining though was that he’d go on to strikeout ten in the setback. I think Teheran will bounce back in friendly confines though.

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 17-23 (-3.6 units) on the road this year, while Atlanta is 23-16 (+4.4 units) at home. 

In my estimation, this line could easily be larger. Great value on Teheran and the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 7:10 EST

I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Brewers hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (7-3, 3.63 ERA) who gave up two runs and a walk with three hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory last Thursday. Over his last two starts spanning 12 innings he’s allowed a very respectable three earned runs. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA on the road as well this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Pablo Lopez (1-0, 5.73) who was rocked for five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but clearly he faces another stiff test at home this week.

I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is already 44-27 against right-handed starters this year, while Miami just 27-39 in the same position. 

I look for Chacin to easily out duel his “gas can” counterpart and I expect the opportunistic Brewers to do the rest. Lay the price, play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

WRONG PICK CHOSEN, SORRY FOR CONFUSION, PLEASE IGNORE

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

The Reds look to bounce back in the opener of this interleague series after an extra innings 6-5 loss at the Cubs last night, while the Indians were busy losing 6-0 at home to the A’s yesterday afternoon. 

The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 5.08 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits while striking out five over 5.1 innings against the White Sox on Tuesday. 

DeSclafani hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s consistently been at his best on the road by going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (7-3, 3.11) who gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a win over Oakland on Sunday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Clevinger, so I won’t even bother. I will however point out that the Indians are just 2-7 in their last nine after getting shutout in their previous contest.

I’ll point out as well that the Reds are 8-2 (+5.6 units) this year in all inter-league contests. Everything points to a minor upset in this one, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

The Brewers smashed the Braves 10-3 at home yesterday afternoon and I think the club will carry that momentum over here. The Marlins on the other hand look primed for a letdown in my opinion after their big 10-2 road win in the nation’s capital on Sunday.

The visitors go with Chase Anderson (6-6, 3.99 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out five in a no-decision to Minnesota on Wednesday. Note that Anderson has now allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts, so there’s definitely no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here against the light-hitting Marlins.

The home side counters with Jose Urena (2-9, 4.18) who went five scoreless against the Rays on Wednesday. It was his first start back from a short stint on the DL and he looked decent. 

Urena has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season, but note that he’s still 0-7 at home this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Brewers are 37-15 (+23.2 units) this year in all “night” games, while the Marlins are 25-36 in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the price with confidence. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Washington fell 10-2 at home to the Marlins on Sunday afternoon and I’m predicting another letdown here as well. Pittsburgh would hold on for the 4-1 win at home over the Phillies yesterday.

The visitors go with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 5.52 ERA) who is once again being recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to make this start. Over three appearances Rodriguez has posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. 

Pirates “ace” Ivan Nova (4-6, 4.88) comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing seven runs off nine hits over five innings. Previous to this outing though he’d posted three straight quality starts, and note that he still ranks among MLB’s leaders in walk rate. 

Nova’s struggled with consistency this year, but I still think he’s the correct call against the totally unproven Rodriguez. I’m banking on Nova bouncing back and I look for the Pirates to take advantage in the opener of this three-game set. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I like the Mariners to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (3-1, 4.44 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Giants on Tuesday, going seven scoreless with no walks and four strikeouts. Previous to this strong outing, Senzatela had posted a horrible 6.23 ERA over ten appearances for the Rockies.

The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (4-0, 3.19) who gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over LA on Tuesday. 

LeBlanc’s peripherals suggest that his numbers are sustainable and he’s got to be feeling confident here, as note that he’s 4-0 with a sharp 2.45 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is already a poor 6-7 (-1.2 units) this season after three or more consecutive victories, while Seattle is 21-11 (+8.6 units) this year following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9*) 4:05 EST

I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.19 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. For the most part Flaherty has been as solid as St. Louis could possibly have hoped for this year, but note that he’s winless in four straight trips to the hill. 

The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss at Colorado on Monday. Previous to this setback he’d go 15 innings and allowed zero runs to go along with a 16/4 K/W.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already just 22-23 (-6.7 units) this year following a victory, while San Francisco is still 11-7 (+1.5 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

All things considered, I think this is a very fair price as I look for Bumgarner to take advantage of familiar surroundings.

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) 2:20 EST

The home side roared from behind to win 8-7 yesterday and suffice it to say, I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in this one as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Monday. Starts like though have been few and far between for Castillo this year and note that he’s 2-5 with a 6.70 ERA on the road this season. 

The home side counters with Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25) who earned his seventh straight win last time out despite giving up four runs (just two earned though) while also going on to strike out five over five innings against the Twins on Sunday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the veteran this year and he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back, as note that he’s an elite 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA at home this season.

I like Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 2:10 EST

I like the Brewers to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat. 

The Braves hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (8-3, 3.10 ERA) who gave up five runs off three hits with five walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. Newcomb has been better than ATL could have possibly asked for this year, but this latest effort is a bit of a concern I’d say.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (5-5, 2.87) who comes in off a gem against the Twins on Tuesday, going five scoreless while striking out eight. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Guerra also sports a 88/34 K/W over 87.2 innings of work. Also note that Guerra has been at his best at home this year by posting a 2.67 ERA in Milwaukee (he also has a 2.14 ERA in all day games.)

Atlanta’s been decent on the road this season, but I think Guerra is the correct call at home here. Look for the revenge-minded Brewers to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST).

One of these starters has been solid all year, while the other is a confirmed “gas can.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Ross Stripling (6-2, 2.27 ERA) who gave up four runs while striking out seven and walking one in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday. 

While it clearly wasn’t his best outing, Stripling still comes in sporting the sharp ERA to go along with an elite 1.12 WHIP and a massive 96/16 K/W over 83.1 innings of work. Note that he owns a 2.20 ERA on the road as well.

The home side counters with Deck McGuire (0-1, 7.56) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. In his last big league start (which was his season debut) just last, McGuire gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Dodgers are already 3-1 in all inter-league games this year, while the Angels are just 3-4 in the same position.

Everything points to a rout from start to finish, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

I think the home side can build off yesterday’s 5-1 win over Tampa.

The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Astros on Sunday, giving up one run with ten K’s over 7.1 innings in the eventual victory. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’ll stumble here under this National League format.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports a respectable 76/32 K/W and note that he owns a sharp 2.99 ERA in all day games to this point as well.

Both teams have been terrible in this spot for bettors, but ultimately I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I like the Cubs to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

Matt Harvey (4-5, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently allowed no runs off two hits over 5.2 innings in a win over Milwaukee last week. Harvey has admittedly looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still a poor 2-3 with a 6.10 ERA in all day games this season.

The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (3-5, 4.54) who comes in off a terrible showing, giving up seven runs off seven hits in a no-decision to Minnesota on Saturday. The silver lining was that he’d go on to strike out six. Note that it was just the second time this year that he’s given up four or more runs. 

I’ll point out though that Cincinnati is just 17-23 on the road this season, while the Cubs are 26-14 at home this year, including 11-4 (+4.8 units) as a fav in the -125 to -175 range.

I think Harvey has a predictable letdown here after his decent stretch, and I expect the hungry and revenge-minded Cubs to take advantage. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 9:40 EST

I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat as a -160 favorite.

The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.26 ERA) who gave up one hit and walked four over five scoreless in a win over the punch-less Pirates on Saturday. Note that he only threw 52 of his 85 pitches for strikes though. While that was good enough to best Pittsburgh, clearly the hard-hitting Diamondbacks won’t be as “easy.” Note that in his three starts since returning from the DL he’s walked eight opponents over 10.2 innings. 

The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-6, 5.07) who comes in off an outing to forget against San Francisco on Sunday, allowing seven runs off nine hits while striking out five over four innings. Previous to that he’d posted four straight quality efforts, so clearly this was a step back. 

Godley is suffering through his most inconsistent season since his rookie year, but note that he’s been at his best in this particular spot, going a respectable 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA at home and an even better 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that San Diego is just 28-33 against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws.

I like Godley to bounce back after his latest poor effort, while everything points to the Padres suffering a predictable letdown here after last night’s victory.

Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (8*) 8:10 EST

I like Baltimore to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (6-7, 3.75 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make his first start since June 26th. Bundy threw a bullpen session and he’s been cleared to go. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a 1.21 WHIP over 16 starts. Further note that he has a 3.25 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Lance Lynn (5-7, 5.49) who gave up seven runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Lynn looked decent overall in June, but his first start in July was a complete disaster obviously. He’s been better at home than on the road, but I think his blow-up in his last start is a sign of things to come, as recent gains do definitely seem unsustainable considering his already poor season numbers.

Baltimore has been terrible this year, but Bundy comes back fresh and I think he’ll have more than enough to out-duel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Play on the hungry Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Both teams had the night off on Thursday. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Phillies hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.66 ERA) who picked up a win in relief on Sunday, pitching a scoreless 13th inning with one walk and one K. Previous to that Pivetta had been roughed up by the Nationals. 

Pivetta and the Phillies though catch a break squaring off against the volatile Trevor Williams (6-6, 4.22) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out over 4.2 innings in a loss to San Diego on Saturday. 

Williams has been a complete “gas can” of late, allowing at least four earned runs in six of his past ten starts. Note that he also only has 68 K’s over 91.2 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 17-11 (+6.1 units) against clubs with losing records. Conversely, the Pirates have struggled in this position by going just 15-26 (-9.5 units) against teams with winning records.

I like Pivetta to out duel his struggling counterpart and for the Phillies to find a way to take the opener of this three game series. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8*) 7:05 EST

Both teams had the night off last night. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Yanks go with Sonny Gray (5-6, 5.44 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing six runs off seven hits over 2.1 innings of work. Gray owns an atrocious 2-3, 8.25 ERA record at home, compared to a much more respectable 3-3, 3.28 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.97) who gave up three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be no-decision against the Tigers on Saturday. Gaviglio has been better at home than on the road this year, but I still think he’ll have difficulties today facing a Yanks team that he got the better of earlier in the season.

I’ll point out as well that New York has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going a solid 13-7 (+2.2 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. Conversely, this is a position in which the Jays have struggled mightily in for bettors by going just 2-6 (-3.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

New York is looking to close the first half of the season strong and I think it takes care of business in the opener of this important divisional contest. Lay the price, play on the Yanks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat to the Angels.

LA sends Jaime Barria (5-4, 3.40 ERA) to the hill, and he’ll be making a spot start here after Tyler Skaggs was placed on the DL with an adductor strain. Note that Barria is allowing opponents to record a .352 wOBA against him on the road, compared to a .290 mark at home. 

The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (8-5, 3.77) who comes in off a complete game against the Royals on Friday, allowing one earned run off six hits while striking out seven with no walks. To go along with his respectable ERA, Gonzalez also sports a decent 1.23 WHIP and 87/20 K/W over 100.1 innings of work. 

Note that Gonzalez has consistently been at his best at home as well by going 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA thus far.

I base my selections on many different things, but this one just sets up nicely for the Mariners. They’re off the loss yesterday and catch the Angels needing to make a last second pitching change. I think Gonzalez is the correct call here for sure. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

The Rangers come in off a frustrating series loss at home to the Astros, most recently a 6-5 extra inning setback last night. Detroit meanwhile returns home after losing at the Cubs, most recently a 5-2 loss yesterday afternoon. These are two hungry teams looking for a victory, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The visitors go with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 9.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with seven K’s over 7.1 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. After a disastrous start to the season, Gallardo has admittedly looked better of late, but I’m still unconvinced that he’s turned any major corners at this point.

The home side counters with Matt Boyd (4-6, 4.18) who struck out seven and walked two in a no-decision against Toronto on Saturday, ultimately allowing three runs over six innings of work. Previous to that Boyd had struggled a bit over two starts, but overall this year the southpaw has been as solid as Detroit could have possibly asked for. 

Note that Boyd has consistently been his most consistent at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA to this point..

I think Gallardo takes a predictable step back here, while recent form displayed by Boyd points to another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 10:10 EST

I think the home side will build off its 4-2 victory last night. 

St. Louis hands the ball to Miles Mikolas (8-3, 2.61 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits with one strikeout over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Mikolas, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.14) who most recently allowed one earned run off four hits with five K’s over six innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Friday. 

Corbin started the season on fire, but then dropped off considerably. However over his last two starts he’s given up just one earned run and posted a 17/1 K/W over his last 13 innings of work. Over 106 innings so far he’s posted a tiny 0.99 WHIP as well.

Additionally note that St. Louis is just 23-25 (-9.3 units) in all night games this year, while Arizona is 34-23 (+10 units) in the same position.

I like Corbin to get the better of his counterpart today and I look for the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

I like the Rockies to build off their 8-1 victory last night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (3-4, 4.18 ERA) who comes in off a win against Arizona in his latest start Friday, giving up one run off seven hits over six innings. Suarez had a strong June overall, but his ERA and 1.28 WHIP leave everything to be desired. Note as well that he’s a poor 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-3, 4.23) who went eight shutout innings against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up four hits and striking out eight. Anderson has now posted quality efforts in four of his last seven trips to the hill. 

While he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that the Rockies are 33-23 (+9.3 units) in all night games this year, while San Fran is just 26-29 (-1.5 units) in the same position. 

I think Suarez takes a step back in this difficult venue and I look for Anderson and the Rockies to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) 4:10 EST

I like the Mariners to build off yesterday’s 4-1 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.42 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL after  hamstring issue in mid June. Note that he’s 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in all day games this year. Clearly Richards is facing a tough test today against the surging Mariners in his first start back.

The home side counters with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.01) who most recently allowed two runs off five hits with six K’s over seven innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Thursday. 

Leake has turned things around of late and he now has a big opportunity to lower his ERA under 4.00 for the first time since April (note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.69 ERA in all day games as well.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that LA is just 10-12 (-2.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Seattle is 16-6 (+10.4 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest falls in the same range.

I’m banking on Leake going longer than Richards and for the hot-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) 4:10 EST

I think the visitors will respond after yesterday’s 2-0 defeat and with their “ace” on the mound.

Minnesota hands the ball to Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Cubs on Friday, giving up six runs over 4.1 innings. Blow-ups like that though have been few and far between for Berrios, as this was his shortest outing since April. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (6-6, 4.18) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Friday. Note though that it was just his second quality start since May. Despite his recent form, note that Anderson comes in with a poor 3-3, 5.29 ERA record at home.

Minnesota comes in fired up after yesterday’s shutout. I think that Berrios bounces back here as well and everything points to predictable regression for Anderson after his latest decent effort. 

Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:10 EST).

I think the Pirates will respond here after yesterday’s humiliating 17-1 defeat. I also believe this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the home side after such a big victory.

Ultimately I believe that Ivan Nova has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup, as Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw continues to try and find his old dominant form.

Nova (4-5, 4.02 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Wednesday. Nova wasn’t at his best, but he still posted his third straight quality outing. 

In fact, over 25.2 innings in June, Nova posted an impressive 1.75 ERA. 

Kershaw (1-4, 2.84) gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Over eight innings since returning from the DL, he’s allowed three runs, while posting a 10/1 K/W. 

Pittsburgh is just 8-12 against left-handed starters this year, but I’ll point out that the Dodgers are a horrible 26-27 (-17.8 units) against right-handed starters as well this season. Looking back also sees the Pirates having gone 7-1 in their last eight after allowing 15 or more runs in their previous outing. 

For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’m banking on the humbled visiting side to respond after yesterday’s defeat, while everything does indeed point to a letdown for LA. 

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

After yesterday’s 6-3 defeat, I think the home side will bounce back on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-3, 2.92 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Wednesday, allowing four runs off six hits with two walks over six innings in the eventual setback. Flaherty has been strong overall this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with ace Zack Greinke (8-5, 3.41) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Miami on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. To go along with his strong ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.11 WHIP and note that he’s been at his best at home this season by going 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Cards are sill only 22-25 (-10.6 units) in all night games, while the D-Backs are 34-22 (+11.2 units) in the same position.

I think Greinke can out-duel his suddenly struggling counterpart and I look for the revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 EST).

The Brewers came from behind in a back and forth game to win 6-5 in yesterday’s series opener and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done here as well on Tuesday.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.62 ERA) who went six shutout frames in a 2-1 win over the soft-hitting White Sox on Thursday. Previous to this strong showing though, Odorizzi didn’t even make it out of the second inning. Overall Odorizzi has been a disappointment this year and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’m still expecting him to struggle in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with the steady Junior Guerra (4-5, 3.05) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Thursday. Guerra hasn’t been perfect this year, but he has to be feeling confident in this position as he comes in sporting a cry respectable 2.94 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 9-12 (-3.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 8-3 (+3.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST).

These pitchers faced off against one another last weekend and each went seven scoreless. San Francisco enters off a momentum building 9-6 win at Arizona last night, while Colorado was busy losing 6-4 at the Dodgers. 

While Kyle Freeland has been better at home than on the road, I still think that this one favors the hot-hitting Giants and the surging Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner (1-2, 2.51 ERA) went seven scoreless against the Rockies last week, striking out eight and inducing 12 swinging strikes. Bumgarner comes in on top form having posted 15 scoreless inning with 16 K’s and four walks over his past two starts. 

Freeland (7-6, 3.29) went seven scoreless last Wednesday as well, but I’ll point out that the Rockies have done poorly in this spot for bettors all year by going just 16-17 (-2.9 units) against southpaws. 

Conversely note that the Giants are 17-16 (+3.8 units) against left-handed starters. 

I think the Giants build off last night’s victory and I look for Bumgarner to continue his progression. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

Minnesota comes in off a disheartening 11-10 loss at the Cubs yesterday afternoon and it now must transition to another tough inter-league series in Milwaukee. In my professional opinion, this line could in fact be much larger.

The Brewers will be eager to take advantage after a listless 8-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-6, 3.48 ERA) who gave up five runs off 11 hits over seven innings in a loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. Clearly Gibson has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll falter in this NL format.

The home side counters with Brent Suter (8-5, 4.28) who gave up four runs off six hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Wednesday.

Suter came into that one having won three straight, so there’s no reason not to think he can’t make an immediate rebound here. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is a poor 19-27 (-8.8 units) this season in all night games, while Milwaukee is 34-15 (+20.2 units) in the same position.

I like Suter to bounce back at home and get the better of Gibson and the Twins in the opener.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

Arizona looks to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set after San Francisco blanked it 7-0 on Saturday night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (5-7, 4.24 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. It was his best start of the year and it wrapped up a decent overall June run for the veteran. Regression does seem imminent though, note that he was just 7-14 with a 5.99 ERA last season.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-5, 4.58) who gave up two runs off six hits with four K’s over five innings in a victory over Miami on Tuesday. Godley’s has serviceable numbers this year and he has been susceptible to a blow-up here or there, but note that he’s consistently been his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by posting a 4-1, 2.89 ERA record. 

I like Godley in this position as I think he’s the much “hungrier/focused” starter. Both Holland and the Giants are primed for a letdown in this spot. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (9*) 4:10 EST

I like the Pirates to bounce back here after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (5-6, 3.96 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out five in a victory over the Mets on Monday. Over five June starts covering 31 innings he’s posted a sharp 2.90 ERA. Note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in all day games this year.

The home side counters with Tyson Ross (5-5, 3.32) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Tuesday. Ross has been solid all season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his performance in all day games to this point, going 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.53 ERA.

I think that Taillon and the revenge-minded Pirates offer great value in this bounce back position. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (4:05 EST).

I like the Tribe to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-3, 3.03 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Cards on Monday. He’s now posted four quality starts in his last six trips to the hill and he has to be feeling confident here, as so far he’s 3-2 with a tiny 2.39 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Frankie Montas (4-1, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out one over three innings in a win over Detroit on Tuesday, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Clearly his early numbers were unsustainable and I think the young right-hander will be in trouble again today against the revenge-minded Indians.

I like Clevinger to out duel his now sliding counterpart and for the hungry visitors to respond after yesterday’s setback. 

Lay the price, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (3:05 EST).

The Rangers won 13-4 on Saturday and I think they’ll build off that effort with another convincing performance on Sunday.

The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (3-5, 3.73 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over 6.1 innings in what turned out to be a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. 

Lopez though has now conceded nine runs over his last 10.2 innings of work. And note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 1-4, 4.72 ERA record.

The home side counters with Cole Hamels (4-6, 3.61) who allowed four runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Monday. Hamels would induce 13 swinging strikes and he owns an elite 97/37 K/W over 97.1 innings of work this year. 

This could be Hamels last start as a Ranger, as he’s rumoured to be traded to several different teams. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 15-25 (-9 units) against teams with losing records this year, while Texas is 18-13 (+4.2 units) in the same position.

I like Hamels to out duel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Rangers to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Mets will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (3-5, 3.69 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with seven K’s over seven innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. 

Matz has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having posted quality efforts in four of his last five trips to the hill. Note that he’s been especially tough on the road as well with a sharp 2.60 ERA.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 4.82) who will begin a five game suspension starting on Tuesday after his actions against the Giants during a scuffle last week. Straiiy comes in off a win over the Diamondbacks, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings on Monday. Previous to that though he’d gone 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over five starts.

With the suspension looming and on the front of his mind as well, I think Straily makes an immediate return to mediocrity.

I like Matz to out duel his distracted counterpart and for the revenge-minded Mets to avoid the sweep. 

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 EST).

Washington hammered the Phillies 17-7 last night. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for the humbled home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.28 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start after straining his hamstring back on June 3rd. Hellickson comes in with the elite numbers, but if ever the veteran was going to stumble, or come back down to Earth, then this would be the spot. Regression seems imminent, as his early number seem completely unsustainable over the long-term considering his career marks. 

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69) who gave up two runs off three hits with four walks over six innings while also striking out seven in what turned out to be a hard luck loss against New York on Monday. 

Velasquez has been hit or miss all year, but he comes in on decent form and I think he can carry that momentum over here in what shapes up to be a favorable matchup for him.

Additionally note that Washington is just 8-10 (-2.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 16-10 (+5 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest is set in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry 

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST).

The Angels prevailed 7-1 in last night’s series opener and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for them. 

The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs (6-5, 2.69 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. Over his last 28 innings (four starts), Skaggs has allowed two runs while striking out 30. And note as well that he’s been at his best on the road this year by going 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.70) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings against Seattle on Monday. Cashner hasn’t struck out more than four batters in any of his last six starts and to go along with his unimpressive ERA, he also owns a poor 1.62 WHIP. Additionally note that he’s 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA at home this season. 

And finally note that LA is a superb 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 1-6 (-4.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

I like Skaggs to continue his progression and I look for him to easily out duel his “gas can” counterpart. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST).

The Giants will be hungry here after falling 9-8 at home to the Rockies in extra innings yesterday afternoon. 

After a sluggish stretch the Diamondbacks have gotten back on track of late as they return home off a satisfying road trip which included a 4-0 win on Thursday in Miami, part of a sweep of the Marlins.

I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Arizona though and I’m expecting San Francisco to take advantage.

The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run and a walk while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. 

Suarez has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.24) who went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Friday. Corbin came into that gem though having allowed five runs in back-to-back outings.

Overall Corbin has put together a great season, but I think Suarez can match him inning for inning.

And in a scenario like that, I think the value absolutely swings to the focused and hungry underdog. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (8:15 EST).

Both teams had the night off on Thursday. Here’s another one though where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (5-5, 4.52 ERA), who gave up seven runs off six hits and three walks over 4.2 innings while striking out six in a 7-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday. Teheran is struggling, having now walked exactly three batters in seven straight starts, posting a 6.05 ERA and 31/21 K/W over 38.2 innings over that span. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (8-2, 2.69) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. His peripherals remain solid (0.7 HR/9 and 51 percent ground ball rate), pointing to sustainability as we approach the mid way point. Note that Mikolas is -2 with a 1.68 ERA at home as well.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Teheran is going to be in trouble once again in this tough environment. And there’s no reason not to think that Mikolas won’t be able to come out here and produce another quality effort at home. Lay the price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (9*) (7:10 EST).

Milwaukee managed the 6-4 win last night over the Reds and I think the hard-hitting visiting side will find a way to get the job done on Friday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (5-6, 4.37 ERA) who gave up one earned run off two hits with four walks while striking out nine over five innings against the Cardinals on Saturday, unfortunate to earn a no-decision. Anderson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his most consistent on the road so far with a very respectable 3.12 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Sal Romano (4-7, 5.40) who gave up five runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over five innings against the Cubs on Sunday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Romano has been better at home than on the road, but he still has a rather poor 3-3, 4.99 ERA in Cincinnati so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 38-24 (+14.7 units) this year against right-handed pitching, while the Reds are just 22-35 (-8.5 units) in the same position.

I like Anderson to out duel his “gas can” counterpart and for the Brewers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (5:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in the opener of this interleague series.

The Twins hand the ball to Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.15 ERA) who struck out 12 batters over seven shutout innings in a 2-0 victory over Texas last time out. Berrios has looked sharp overall this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness, it’s been his performance on the road where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA, compared to 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA at home.

The home side counters with Mike Montgomery (2-2, 3.39) , who has looked great as a starter in his limited time so far, posting a 2.02 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 25 K’s over 35.2 innings spanning six starts.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 62-86 (-18 units) the last three years in all inter-league contests, while Chicago is 34-20 (+4.6 units) in the same position and time frame.

I think Berrios stumbles in the NL format and I look for Montgomery to continue his steady progression in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (3:05 EST).

Seattle held on for an 8-7 win yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon on Thursday as well.

The visitors go with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.11 ERA) who went eight scoreless against the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out five and allowing just three hits. Over his last 49.2 innings of work Leake has allowed only 12 earned runs. Note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road as well this season by going 5-1 with a 3.89 ERA.

The home side counters with Jimmy Yacabonis (0-0, 15.43) who over 23 career innings in the big leagues as strictly a reliever has posted a 5.48 ERA and nine strikeouts. His numbers look sharp in Triple-A, but so far that success has not translated or carried over into the majors in any way whatsoever. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 34-19 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Baltimore is 13-37 (-23.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

All things considered, I think that Leake is being severely under-valued in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST).

The Twins came up short in yesterday’s 6-1 defeat as a -150 favorite, but I think the visiting side will bounce back here in this favorable matchup on the mound.

The visitors go with Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday, allowing six runs over 1.2 innings. Odorizzi has struggled of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his best in all day games with a  respectable 3.57 ERA this season.

And here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as Lucas Giolito (5-7, 7.01) has been a complete “gas can” from the start this season. Giolito earned a win last time out despite allowing four runs off seven hits over six innings. Giolito has looked a bit better of late, but the Tigers and A’s line-ups leave something to be desired. Note the he owns a poor 6.99 ERA in all day games this year.

Also note that Minnesota is still 16-12 (+3 units) this season against divisional opponents, while Chicago is only 12-24 (-10.4 units) against the division. 

I’m banking on Odorrizi bouncing back here and for the revenge-minded Twins to do the rest. Lay the price, play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST).

St. Louis scored the decisive 11-2 victory over Corey Kluber and the Indians yesterday and I think the home side offers great value to do it again on Wednesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (2-0, 2.45 ERA) who gave up four hits over seven scoreless in a win over Detroit on Friday. Bieber has looked sharp in his limited time as a starter for the Tribe, but clearly he faces a stiff test here on the road in this inter-league format.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.50) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Friday, allowing one run off one hit with 13 K’s over seven innings. Flaherty comes in with a strong 68/16 K/W over 57.2 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here against the Indians’ “on again, off again” line-up.

Flaherty is holding his opposition to a .201 batting average and I think he’s going to easily out duel his still untested counterpart. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) (8:10 EST).

The White Sox scored the minor upset in yesterday’s 8-4 win over the Twins, but I think the visitors will bounce back here in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them.

Minnesota hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-5, 3.25 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings with five K’s in a loss to the Red Sox on Thursday. Gibson’s win/loss record is not indicative at all of the way he’s been playing of late though. While he’s lost three of his last four, he’s posted a strong 2.20 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over his last five trips to the hill.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (2-9, 4.59) who was most recently rocked for eight runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Note that the veteran has struggled across the board and is just 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well, despite the loss yesterday the Twins are still 16-11 (+4.2 units) against the division this season, while the White Sox are just 11-24 (-11.6 units) against the division this year.

I like Gibson to come in focused and to out duel his inconsistent counterpart. All things considered, I think a very fair price on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (8:05 EST).

The Padres took the opener of this series 3-2 last night, but I think the home side will bounce back here. Two veteran pitchers come into this one red hot, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (7-6, 4.23 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits over six innings while striking out four and walking none in a win over the Giants on Friday.

Richard owns a 2.77 ERA over four June starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all night games this season.

The home side counters with Mike Minor (5-4, 5.06) who has won three straight June starts behind a 3.46 ERA, most recently allowing one earned run with three K’s over six innings against the Twins on Friday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that he does own a respectable 1.26 WHIP over 78.1 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA at home so far.

While Texas is just 3-3 in interleague games this season, over the last three years it’s 30-16 (+13.2 units) in that department. The Padres are just 15-31 (-9.8 units) in interleague contests in the same span, including a horrible 1-7 (-6 units) this season. I’m looking for the hard-hitting home side to answer after yesterday’s lacklustre effort. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Robbie Ray returns from an extended stint on the DL to a favorable matchup in Miami and I think the hard-throwing southpaw will make the most of it.

Ray (2-0, 4.88 ERA) made two re-hab starts and was scheduled to make three, but an injury to Clay Buchholz likely bumped him up. Regardless, he’s been cleared to go tonight and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to put out an efficient outing. In his final rehab on Tuesday he’d give up three runs (one earned) over 4.1 innings while also striking out nine. Note that Ray was dominant on the road last year by going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA. 

The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (2-4, 6.70) who most recently was crushed for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a blowout loss to Colorado on Friday. Chen has in fact been a lot better at home (2-1, 2.53) than on the road (1-4, 9.85), but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all night games.

The Diamondbacks are 21-18 (+5.6 units) on the road this year, while the Marlins are just 15-21 (-1.6 units) at home. I think Ray finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST).

I think the Rockies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Granted, Chad Bettis (5-1, 5.23 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent all year for Colorado, but he catches a break here going up against Derek Holland and avoiding a home start as well.

Bettis enters off an outing to forget against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing eight runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. 

But as mentioned above, while he’s 0-0 with an 8.75 ERA at home, Bettis is a “lights out” 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road.

Holland (5-7, 4.48) gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings against Miami on Wednesday. Holland has been hit or miss this year, especially with his play at home where he comes in sporting a 2-2, 5.34 ERA record thus far. 

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is a solid 30-21 (+8.7 units) in all night games so far this season, while the Giants are just 22-28 (-4.8 units) in the same position.

Everything points to a minor upset in the opener of this series. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (5-5, 4.56 ERA) who most recently was rocked for eight runs off eight hits and a walk in 9-3 loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Kuhl would only strike out two, while also allowing two home runs. Kuhl has for the most part been solid overall this season, but I’ll point out that he’s still only 3-3 with a 6.04 ERA in all night games to this point.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (3-5, 3.68) who gave up five runs over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 loss to Colorado on Thursday. It was the most runs that he’s given up in any start this year, so I don’t think there’s any need to overreact to one poor effort. Matz has a 3-2, 3.47 ERA in all night games as well.

Both teams have underwhelmed this season, but Matz at home at this price is the correct call in my opinion. Look for the revenge-minded Mets to deliver the goods on Tuesday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).

One of these starters has been consistent all season, while the other for the most has struggled across the board. After their 5-3 win in the opener of this three game series, I think that James Paxton and the visiting Seattle Mariners will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Tuesday as well.

Paxton (6-2, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a loss against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up four runs over five innings of work, while also going on to strikeout nine. Paxton though would allow two home runs and three walks. 

That’s back-to-back shaky outings against two of the league’s most prolific clubs (Boston and then New York), but I think the big southpaw can bounce back in this favorable matchup tonight. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this year.

Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman gave up two runs off four walks and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman is winless since early May and note that he’s only 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

Additionally note that Seattle is 23-13 (+4.2 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is just 9-30 (-16.7 units) against teams with winning records. 

I think Paxton bounces back and the hard-hitting Mariners do the rest. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) (7:35 EST).

The Reds come in off an 8-6 win at home over the Cubs yesterday and now hit the road for a tough series in Atlanta. 

The Braves were at home yesterday afternoon and they’d pull away for a convincing 7-3 win over the Orioles.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (6-6, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings. For the most part Mahle has been solid, but if he’s had one area weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s just 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA. 

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.16) who returns from a very short stop on the ten-day DL due to shoulder inflammation. Foltynewicz threw a bullpen session and has been cleared to go and so far he’s 3-3 with a 2.19 ERA in all night games and 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 18-27 (-5.4 units) in all night games, while Atlanta is 26-23 (+2.3 units) in the same position.

Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises this year and I don’t foresee an upset. For arguments sakes, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” This matchup definitely favors the hard-hitting home side and I think it’s well worth the price of admission. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST).

Both teams come in off victories. The Tribe won 12-2 at home over the Tigers, while the Cards took care of business on the road in Milwaukee 8-2. 

For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors the home side.

The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the anemic White Sox on Tuesday. Clevinger has been sharp overall this season and it’s basically impossible to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that this is going to be a tough matchup, considering he’ll be playing under National League rules.

The home side counters with John Gant (1-2, 4.39) who has made seven appearances for the big club this year. Note that Gant owned a sharp 2.25 ERA in all home games last season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 4-9 (-9.5 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis is 9-5 (+3.8 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. 

I look for St. Louis to find a way to take the opener of this interleague contest. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) (7:05 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-6, 5.14 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday, giving up two runs (just one earned) off six hits with a walk while striking out six over five innings. 

Hernandez induced 17 swinging strikes and he’s now conceded just two earned runs while posting a sharp 12/2 K/W over his last 12 innings of work spanning two starts (and that was against New York and Boston.)

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.72) who returned from the DL to post a decent outing, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. 

Starts like that though have been few and far between for Cashner this season and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s so far a poor 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle has done extremely well in this spot all year, going 33-16 (+15.3 units) in all night games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in the same position.

I like Hernandez to carry over his momentum, while everything points to regression for the streaky Cashner in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

The Yankees fell 7-6 in Tampa Bay last night, while the Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but enter off a tough 8-6 loss on Sunday night baseball.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side.

New York goes with Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Wednesday. 

Loaisiga shut down the Rays in his debut though and so far he’s shown tremendous potential. 

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82) who comes in off a no-decision to the Cards on Tuesday, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings of work. 

Velasquez though has consistently been at his worst at home this year, sporting a poor 3-4, 6.70 ERA record in Philadelphia.

I’ll point out as well that New York is already 12-6 (+2.6 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 18-32 (-5.9 units) in its last 50 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but I think that the Nationals will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over 7.1 innings in a no-decision against St. Louis. Pivetta has been decent this year and it’s hard to find too many faults, I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counter with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 4.66) who gave up five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodriguez’s only other appearance in the big leagues was a 4.2 scoreless innings effort against the Braves.

I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 8-14 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Washington is 19-14 (+4.4 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125.

I’m banking on the revenge minded home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (3:10 EST).

Miami won 6-2 yesterday and I think it and Caleb Smith have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well.

Smith (5-6, 4.03 ERA) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks with four K’s over four innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Note though that Smith enters with a highly respectable 3.46 ERA in all day games this year.

The home side counters with the volatile German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. 

Marquez though has given up at least four runs in all four starts in June, posting a 7.77 ERA and conceding seven home runs over 22 innings in that span. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA at home as well.

Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers, but Smith comes in throwing much more consistent at this point. Everything points to another minor upset on Sunday afternoon. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

The Giants held on for a 5-3 win yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. 

The visitors hand the ball to volatile Eric Lauer (3-4, 5.47 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Tuesday. The southpaw owns the poor ERA to go along with an atrocious .324 opponent batting average. Also note that Lauer has been at his worst on the road with a 1-2, 5.83 ERA record.

The home side counters with Dereck Rodriguez (2-1, 4.56) who struck out six and walked zero in a victory over Miami on Tuesday, conceding three runs over five innings. So far Rodriguez owns a respectable 22/6 K/W over 23.2 innings of work. Note as well that Rodriguez has been at his best at home thus far with a 2-0, 3.27 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego is already a poor 11-13 (-1.5 units) this year in all day games, while San Francisco is 17-11 (+10.5 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

I had a play on Arizona last night, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set and salvage getting swept. 

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (1-1, 2.94 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Sunday. Buchholz has been solid in his limited time, but I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-4, 4.00) who comes in off a gem against Milwaukee on Monday, going seven scoreless and allowing only one hit to go along with seven K’s. Williams bounced back after a poor stretch and he’ll be looking to atone for a lacklustre effort against the Diamondbacks earlier in the year in which he allowed eight runs over three innings (just three earned.) 

I’ll point out though that Williams has been at his best at home by going 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA. 

I’m banking on Williams outdueling Buchholz and for the revenge minded home side to deliver the goods at the end of the afternoon. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think this one highly favors the home side. All things considered, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who is being activated from the 10-day disabled list. Stroman threw a simulated game and has been given the green light here to try and improve upon his dismal start to the 2018 campaign. To go along with his ballooned 7.71 ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 total innings of work. 

The Angels counter with Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over four innings on Monday. Barria has been hurt by the long-ball of late, but note that he has a respectable 4-2, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all night games this season, while LA is 30-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position.

Barria is the correct call here in my opinion. Stroman’s shown no consistency whatsoever this season and he’s hard to trust on the road on his first start off the DL. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9*) (7:15 EST).

I don’t normally play favorites of this size, but in my opinion Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-4, 4.47 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one K in a setback to these very Red Sox last Sunday.

Leake has probably been better than the Mariners could have asked for to this point, but he still has only 55 K’s over 92.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games.

Rodriguez (9-1, 3.59) was on the winning side of last Sunday’s result, giving up two earned runs off six hits while striking out nine and walking one in his team’s 9-3 victory. It was his sixth straight winning decision and he now comes in with a sharp 90/24 K/W over 77.2 innings.

Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA in all night games this year and 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Rodriguez has another prime opportunity to pad his already impressive numbers. 

Lay the price, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST).

I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill.

The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. 

New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. 

Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry