Cappers Sports Picks

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s. 10* (10:05 EST).

I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Wade LeBlanc (7-3, 3.92 ERA) who went six innings and gave up one in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that prior to that LeBlanc had been rocked for 15 earned runs over 20 innings. 

The home side counters with the capable Frankie Montas (5-3, 3.75) who has been called back up to the big leagues to make this start. Montas has excelled in the majors when given the opportunity this year and there’s no reason no to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to to carry that momentum over here as well (note that he’s 3-0 with a with a 3.14 ERA in all night games as well this year.) 

I’ll point out that Seattle is just 11-14 in August right now, while Oakland is surging in the other direction with a 17-7 record so far this month. 

Look for Montas to once again make the most of the opportunity presented to him. Play on the A’s. 

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST

Here’s another matchup on the mound where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.62 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. Overall Montgomery’s been sharp for Chicago, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (10-8, 2.67) who took a loss against the Marlins on Friday despite allowing just one run off two hits over six innings while striking out eight. 

Foltynewicz has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball of late, having posted a 1.38 ERA and a strong 36/8 K/W over 32.2 innings in August. 

And note that he’s been particularly dominant at home with the 4-2, 2.63 ERA to this point.

I think Montgomery comes in under a pitch count and that leaves the door open for Foltynewicz to continue his stellar surge in friendly confines. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (7:15 EST).

Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.56 ERA) who comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Friday, allowing four runs off six hits over four innings. 

The home side counters with John Gant (5-5, 3.56) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but he does own a very respectable ERA to to go along with a 1.23 WHIP over 84 innings of work.

Gant has been at his best at home as well with a 3.15 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Gant out-duelling Musgrove. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (13-7, 4.59 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off seven hits with five innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. To go along with his bloated ERA, he also sports a poor 1.45 WHIP (also a ballooned 5.75 ERA away from friendly confines.)

The home side counters with the red hot Dereck Rodriguez (6-1, 2.30) who returns from the 10-day DL after a minor hamstring issue. Note that since the All Star Game Rodriguez has posted a tiny 1.35 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 28 K’s over 33.1 innings of work.

Note as well that Rodriguez is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Godley is getting far too much respect in my opinion. Great value, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think that Sean Newcomb and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.23 ERA) who has looked pretty good so far in his short time in the big leagues. Note that Castillo is expected to be on a pitch count today (as he has been in each of his appearances.)

Newcomb (11-6, 3.57) most recently comes in off a win against Miami on Thursday, striking out eight over six scoreless innings. He’s slowing down a little after his blistering start to the 2018 campaign, but a date against the light hitting Rays in this spot is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.77 ERA in all night games so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is a horrible 2-8 in its last ten night interleague road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

Lay the price with confidence, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.35 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note that since the beginning of June Gonzalez is just 1-9 over 15 starts. Additionally note that he’s just 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA on the road.

Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.37) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently comes in off a couple of solid outings. Clearly Arrieta hasn’t recaptured his 2015 form, but he’s been solid for his new team, especially at home where he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA thus far.

Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. 

I’m banking on Arrieta continuing his strong play at home and I look for the Phillies to provide the rest. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Michael Fulmer (3-9, 4.32 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox in his last start. 

But decent starts have been few and far between for the Tigers’ right-hander, who owns an unimpressive 1.33 WHIP and only 93 K’s over 112 innings of work.

Note as well that Fulmer owns a poor 5.71 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (7-11, 4.85) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Thursday. 

Like his counterpart today, Duffy has been a disappointment this season, but note that the Royals have excelled in this spot of late, going 5-1 in their last six day home games in which they’re a favorite in the +105 to +125 range.

Look for Duffy to build off his latest performance and find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 10* (8:15 EST).

Here’s a matchup where I believe that the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (7-8, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Tuesday. Nova’s been decent of late, but note that he still owns a poor 5.78 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (7-6, 2.97) who comes in off back to back strong outings and who sports a sharp 134:37 K/BB over 20 starts this year. Also note that Flaherty has a highly respectable 2.91 ERA in all home games thus far.

Additionally note that Pittsburgh is already a poor 6-14 (-5.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is surging right now, 19-5 (+15.5 units) in the month of August thus far.

Suffice it to say, I look for the Cards to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I don’t think that this match up on the mound is as even as the oddsmakers would like us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-8, 3.72 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against these very Reds in his last start on Tuesday. Guerra surely hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he comes in sporting a very respectable 3.41 ERA In all night games.

The home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani (6-4, 4.26) who has looked decent of late, but who has been consistently inconsistent in this spot all year by posting a very pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all night contests.

And that doesn’t bode well for DeSclafani, as note that the Brewers are a massive 52-28 (+23.6 units) this year in all “night” games. Conversely note that the Reds are a poor 33-45 (-4.3 units) in all night contests thus far.

All things considered, I think this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry 

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:05 EST).

These two squared off last week and it was Aaron Nola and the Phillies who came out on top of the low-scoring 2-0 pitchers duel. Suffice it to say, I like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to get their revenge in Philadelphia Tuesday.

Scherzer (16-6, 2.13 ERA) gave up those two runs off two hits over seven innings last week, also going on to strike out ten. Over 181 innings this year Scherzer owns an elite 244/45 K/W and note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road by going 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA thus far.

Nola (15-3, 2.13) went eight shutout innings against Washington last week. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

As note that Philadelphia is a horrible 25-26 (-4.8 units) this year against division opponents, while Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games in which the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. 

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

After getting trounced 15-0 at home by the Nationals, I expect the Mets to wake up and respond in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 3.38 ERA) who looked dominant in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but note that he’s 4-2 with a highly respectable 3.32 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Jon Lester (14-5, 3.64) who gave up one run over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Tigers on Wednesday. Lester has the winning 5-3 record at home, but note he owns a very pedestrian 4.45 ERA in “The Friendly Confines.”

I look for Syndergaard to continue his strong play at home and for New York to play with a little pride after last night’s shellacking. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

These starters faced off in Washington last week and it was Zach Eflin who got the better of Stephen Strasburg, who made his first start in over a month after a neck injury. With a chance to exact a little immediate revenge, I look for Strasburg to get back on track here.

Strasburg (6-7, 4.23 ERA) gave up five runs off seven hits while striking out five in the no-decision over five innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. 

He has to be feeling confident though that he can bounce back here as he’s 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA on the road this season, compared to only 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA at home.

Eflin (9-4, 3.93) has been sharp overall this year and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough against a Nationals team which is 8-2 in its last ten after scoring 14 or more runs in its previous contest (just beat the Mets 15-0 yesterday afternoon), while Philadelphia is a poor 1-7 in its last eight night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +125 range.

Lay the price, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (3-6, 4.95 ERA) who gave up two runs while striking out seven and walking one in a win over these very Orioles on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with the volatile David Hess (2-8, 5.50) who gave up one run over seven innings in a loss to the Jays on Wednesday. Despite the decent outing, the 25-year old owns a poor 5.50 ERA and shoddy 5.9 K/9. 

And unfortunately for Hess a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that the rookie is just 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA at home. 

Note as well that Toronto is a solid 46-39 (+8.6 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 22-65 (-37.8 units) in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels 10* (4:05 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who posted a victory in his major-league debut on Tuesday against Seattle, giving up one run over 4.1 innings. Valdez looked decent, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this tough venue.

The home side counters with Felix Pena (1-3, 4.53) who comes in off a great start against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up four runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out 12 over six innings. Pena has looked sharp of late and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t carry that momentum over here.

I think Valdez is getting far too much respect in this spot. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 8* (3:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.98 ERA) who overall has been fantastic in his limited time, but who comes in off a bit of a shaky outing against the Dodgers. If the rookie’s had one small weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (6-6, 4.45) who gave up four runs while striking out eight and walking zero over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Padres on Tuesday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that his peripherals (1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average) are both extremely solid.

Also note that Anderson owns a highly respectable 3.45 ERA at Coors Field.

And finally note that St. Louis is a poor 20-25 (-5.6 units) this year already in all road games when the money line in the contest is between +125 and -125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (2:10 EST)

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-6, 4.41 ERA) who left his last start with a leg injury. It was just a precautionary measure and he was looking good before being pulled over five innings vs. the Braves on Monday. 

Archer though is a poor 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (8-7, 3.92 ERA) who gave up two runs and no walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Monday. After a sluggish patch, Anderson has gotten back on track and I think he carries that momentum over here. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Milwaukee has been money in the bank all year long for bettors in this spot, going 16-4 (+10.2 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while conversely, the Pirates have been destroyed in this position all season by going just 5-14 (-6.5 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (5-5, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out one over 4.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. His numbers look decent, but note that he’s managed to complete six innings only twice in his past nine starts. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a 4.75 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with German Marquez (11-9, 4.42) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who is a highly respectable 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already a poor 19-25 (-6.6 units) this in all road games when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Colorado is 18-13 this season in all home games when the total in the game falls in the same range.

I think Gant takes a step back in this difficult venue. Lay the price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.58 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Overall Taillon has been as solid as Pittsburgh could have possibly asked for this year, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (13-4, 3.58) who gave up four hits over six shutout frames in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Chacin comes in on top form, having won six straight and his 13 victories rank sixth overall in the National League.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 28-31 on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 38-25 (+8.2 units) at home.

I like Chacin to continue his incredibly hot play in front of the home town crowd. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Martin Perez (2-5, 6.93 ERA) who comes in off back to back poor outings and who is a brutal 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA on the road. Perez has been consistently inconsistent all season and I don’t think there’s any reason to expect anything different here either.

The home side counters with Andrew Suarez (4-9, 4.68) who enters with a respectable 1.25 WHIP so far this year. The rookie is going through growing pains (understandably), but note that he’s been at his best at home with a very respectable 3.49 ERA thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 16-21 (-3.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while San Francisco is 26-18 (+13.2 units) in the same position.

I think Suarez easily gets the better of Perez. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:05 EST).

I think Zach Wheeler is going to out-duel Tanner Roark at home this afternoon.

Roark (8-12, 4.05 ERA) has been hit-or-miss this year as evidenced by his record and ERA. Note that he’s 4-6 with 4.01 ERA on the road. 

Wheeler (8-6, 3.63) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out ten in an unfortunate no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. He’s now posted a tiny 0.92 ERA and elite 40/7 K/W over his last five starts.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Wheeler suggests that he’s in line for another dominant evening here. I look for that momentum to continue in this great value position. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Hutchinson (2-2, 5.71 ERA) who made his third start for the Rangers last Friday against the Angels, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in the victory. Over three starts though he’s posted a poor 5.71 ERA and 27/21 K/W over 34.2 innings of work.

The home side counters with Derek Rodriguez (6-1, 2.25) who has been cleared to go here after a minor hamstring issue. Over five starts since the All Star game he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and a minuscule 0.66 WHIP with 28 K’s spanning 33.1 innings of work.

I believe Hutchinson will take a major step back in this difficult venue and under the National League format. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 9* (8:40 EST).

I like Miles Mikolas to continue his progression and to get the better of his counterpart Antonio Senzatela on Friday night.

Mikolas (13-3, 2.80 ERA) most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday, allowing five hits, walking and none and striking out seven. Note that he enters 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA on the road.

Senzatela (4-3, 4.47) returned from injury against the Braves on Saturday to make his first start since early August and he’d give up two runs over five innings. 

Senztela has surprisingly been better at home than on the road, but note that the Rockies are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games when the line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

Great value on the “better” pitcher. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (8:10 EST).

Here’s a match-up where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.31 ERA) who has been “on again, off again” with his performances of late. 

The home side counters with Wade Miley (2-2, 2.18) who for the most part has looked extremely sharp for Milwaukee in his limited time. Note that he has a very respectable 1.25 WHIP and a tiny 1.69 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 16-22 (-6.8 units) this year against southpaws, while Milwaukee is 15-4 (+9.2 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

Bank on Miley outlasting Musgrove and lay this very reasonable price. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:10 EST). 

While neither of these starters instils much confidence, I absolutely believe that this one favors Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting visiting side.

Gonzalez (7-10, 4.51 ERA) has not been at his best since the All Star break. He’s off back to back sub-par outings, but I still think the veteran will step up and take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Despite all of his struggles this year, there’s no question that he catches a break tonight facing confirmed “gas can” Jason Vargas (3-8, 7.67) who remains in the Mets rotation right now out of necessity, due to so many injuries. 

I’ll point out as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Vargas this season, who is just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in New York.

Washington is 126-80 against the division the last three years, while New York is just 101-103 (-22.7 units) in the same position.

I look for Washington to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Oakland Athletics (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (5-2, 3.12 ERA) who enters off a gem against Houston Saturday, giving up zero runs over seven innings while striking out seven in the victory. Over 86.2 innings the veteran now has a 3.12 ERA and a sharp 1.04 WHIP to go along with 85 K’s.

The home side goes with Kohl Stewart (0-1, 7.71) who gave up three runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Tigers in his MLB debut last week. Stewart was then sent down to Triple-A, but he’s been called up to make this difficult start against the red hot A’s line-up.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 14-8 in its last 22 night road games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST).

It’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these starters. I simply feel that Aaron Nola is going to be able to match Max Scherzer inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued underdog.

Nola (14-3, 2.24 ERA) comes in off another gem, giving up one run off three hits while striking out 11 over seven innings. The hard-throwing right-hander is putting together a career campaign and enters with a  0.98 WHIP and 160/44 K/W over 161 frames of work.

Scherzer (16-5, 2.11) most recently went six scoreless against the Marlins on Friday. Scherzer has 234 K’s over 174.2 innings, but note that the Nationals are just 3-8 in their last 11 home day games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

Play on Philadelphia and the red hot Aaron Nola on Thursday afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (7-6, 3.05 ERA) who has been solid overall this season, but who faces a red hot counterpart in Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns an elite 1.01 WHIP so far. 

Buehler has been especially tough at home as well with the 2.17 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out as well that the Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten home night games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -175 range.

I look for Buehler to edge out Flaherty on Wednesday night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Orioles on Friday, giving up three hits and striking out six in the commanding effort. He’s now posted six straight quality outings with a 1.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a 49/5 K/W spanning 40.2 innings.

The home side goes with Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out two over five innings in a win over Tampa Bay on Friday. Johnson’s made the most of his time in the starting rotation, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

Carrasco has arguably been the best pitcher in all of MLB over the last month and I think he’s being severely undervalued in this spot.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -120 to -175 range. Great price in my professional opinion, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates 8* (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. 

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.24 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this season. Teheran has been serviceable at best and note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 4-5, 4.93 ERA.

The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-9, 3.53) who has been decent overall and who has been particularly sharp of late. Williams has been solid at home as well with a sharp 3.13 ERA. 

Teheran’s road struggles come back to haunt him here, while I look for Williams to continue his steady form in friendly confines. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (7-9, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings with five strikeouts and three walks in a win over these very White Sox on Friday. Gibson has been decent of late, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with Carlos Rodon (4-3, 2.69) who gave up three runs while striking out six over eight innings in a win over Detroit on Wednesday. Over the last six weeks he’s gone 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP spanning seven starts.

Gibson has likely thrown better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season, but Rodon has arguably been the best pitcher in the entire league over the last month and a half. 

I’m banking on Rodon continuing that progression in friendly confines. Great price, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Angels (9:40 EST).

Patrick Corbin has been no slouch this year and he comes in on top form. But I think that Felix Pena and the hard-hitting Angels have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Pena (1-3, 4.35 ERA) gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena would go on to fire first-pitch strikes to 17 of 23 batters and induce 14 swing and misses. Over his last 17 innings of work he’s given up five runs with 12 strikeouts. 

Note as well that Pena owns a 1.31 ERA on the road this year.

It’s impossible to say anything negative about Corbin, as he’s won four straight and been consistent all year. I simply feel however that Pena is going to match Corbin inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the dangerous underdog. 

Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jose Berrios (11-8, 3.75 ERA) who gave up four runs (three earned) over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. It was his shortest start since April though, so I’m not going to over-react. 

While Berrios has scuffled a bit of late, I’ll point out that he’s still a sharp 8-2 with a 2.79 ERA in all night games this year.

The home side counters with Michael Kopech (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over 24 starts in Triple-A he has a poor 11.1 percent walk rate. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is now 16-7 (+6.7 units) in its last 23 against clubs with losing records, while Chicago is just 11-12 in its last 23 in the same position.

All things considered a great price in my opinion. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (8-9, 4.13 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back poor outings. Velasquez has taken a clear step back of late and I believe he’ll struggle again here in the Nation’s capital.

The home side counters with Tanner Roark (8-12, 4.13) who comes in off a strong outing against the Cubs on Thursday, giving up two runs while striking out seven over eight innings in the eventual victory. 

Roark comes in on top form, having gone at least seven innings and allowing two runs or less in four straight starts.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Roark suggests that he’s going to be able to easily out-duel his inconsistent counterpart this evening. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers 10* (10:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.89 ERA) who went five scoreless against Washington on Wednesday for the win. He’s now posted 11 straight scoreless, but I think he’s poised for some regression in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (7-6, 3.51) who gave up one run off three hits with six strikeouts over five innings to San Francisco on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. 

The southpaw has now given up one earned run or fewer in three straight starts, while also posting a tiny 2.43 ERA over his last ten trips to the hill.

Gomber takes a step back and Wood continues his dazzling play at home. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:00 EST).

A prime time match-up features a couple of competent hurlers going head-to-head on Monday night. Despite how good Boston starter Rick Porcello has looked this season though, I think that Indians’ ace Corey Kluber is severely undervalued in this match-up.

Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. He gave up two hits and had seven strikeouts. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been very good, especially on the road with a 7-3, 3.27 ERA thus far.

Porcello (15-5, 4.04) gave up one un over seven innings in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. For the most part Porcello has been sharp this year, but note that he does own the pedestrian 4.77 ERA at home to this point.

I don’t think these pitchers are as evenly matched as the oddsmakers want us to believe. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (1:35 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the visitors will bounce back in the finale of this three game set on Sunday afternoon.

Chicago hands the ball to Jose Quintana (10-9, 4.46 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Tuesday, conceding five runs off six hits over five innings. Note that he’s been better on the road (3.99 ERA) that at home (5.00).

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.66) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings Tuesday in what turned out to be a loss to the Twins. Taillon owns a 3.99 ERA at home, but note that Pittsburgh is just 15-22 (-7.8 units) against southpaws this year. 

The Cubs are 53-41 against right-handed starters. They’re also a solid 33-27 on the road (71-50 overall). 

I like Quintana to bounce back here and match Taillon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the revenge-minded underdog, Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST).

The Braves fell 5-3 to the Rockies as -165 favorites yesterday. I think the home side bounces back in the finale of this three game set though.

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (10-9, 4.51 ERA) who struck out seven and walked two in a victory over Houston on Tuesday, ultimately giving up one run over seven innings. After a poor June, Marquez has been sharp since early July and not surprisingly he’s been better on the road than at home. But despite all of that, I still think he’ll have his hands full here.

The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.07) who for the most part has exceeded expectations as well this year. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all day games thus far.

From a situational stand point though, this one highly favors the home side, as note that Colorado is just 16-24 (-8.3 units) in all day games, while Atlanta is 25-16 (+12 units) in the same position.

All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (1:10 EST).

I had a play on the Giants yesterday and while that pick came up empty, I think the visiting side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set on Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco sends Andrew Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA) to the hill, and he most recently went six scoreless with four K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (6-10, 5.04) who was rocked for five runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’s now given up three homers over his last 11 innings of work. 

Despite yesterday’s setback the Giants are still 25-17 (+13 units) in all day games, while the Reds are just 22-26 in the same position.

Suarez has been far from perfect, but I think the rookie is the correct call here as I like the Giants to respond in this bounce back situation and facing the erratic Castillo. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns a sharp 1.40 ERA over his last 30.1 innings of work. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road as well with the 3-1, 3.11 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75) who returned from injury to take on the Astros in his last start. Ramirez looked decent, but overall he’s been terrible this season. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Hill suggests he’s going to be able to easily out-duel Ramirez. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

Two starters who have seen better days collide in this one on Saturday night, but for a number of different reasons, I think it favors crafty veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner and the visiting San Francisco Giants.

Bumgarner (4-4, 2.71 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out four over six innings on Monday. He continues to battle and note that he owns a sharp 2.67 ERA in all night games so far this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey (5-7, 5.19) who gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Sunday. He was destroyed for eight runs over three innings in his previous outing. Note that he owns a poor 5.08 ERA at home.

I’m banking on Harvey taking a predictable step back here, and I expect Bumgarner to step up and take advantage. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) 7:05 EST).

I think Cubs’ starter Tyler Chatwood will get the better of Pirates’ right-hander Joe Musgrove on Saturday night.

Chatwood (4-5, 5.06 ERA) has been better on the road (3.99 ERA) than at home this year (5.52) and he’ll be getting a second chance in the rotation filling in for the injured Mike Montgomery. 

Musgrove (4-7, 3.49) started his 2018 campaign on fire but he’s predictably come back down to Earth. Most recently he gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings  in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. 

Musgrove has been much better on the road (2.18 ERA) than at home (4.90) as well.

I’m banking on Chatwood getting the better of Musgrove. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (4:05 EST).

As good as Trevor Cahill has looked in the early going for the A’s, I still think that Dallas Keuchel and the defending champs have the advantage in this one.

Keuchel (9-9, 3.43 ERA) has struggled at times this year, but he’s been very good since early July, posting a tiny 1.97 ERA over seven starts. Note that he’s consistently been at his best on the road as well with the solid 6-4, 3.00 ERA record thus far.

Cahill (4-2, 3.39) looked very average in his last start, giving up four runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Cahill, so I won’t bother. I will point out though that the Astros are now 8-2 in their last ten road day games in which they’re a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

I’m banking on Keuchel getting the better of Cahill in this one. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I think that Wade LeBlanc and the hard-hitting home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (5-4, 3.32 ERA) who comes in off a win over Houston on Sunday, giving up two earned runs off four hits over 5.1 innings. For the most part Buehler’s been solid this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the M’s are 7-2 in their last nine as home dog in the +105 to +150 range.

The home side goes with Wade LeBlanc (7-2, 3.80) who gave up one run off two hits with one walk while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Monday. 

He’s been far from perfect this year, but he’s been almost perfect at home this season by going 6-1 with a very respectable 3.50 ERA. 

I like LeBlanc to match Buehler inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I like the hungry home side. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. 

The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (5-3, 4.47 ERA) who for the most part has looked great this season. He’s shown some signs of slowing down of late though, having allowed 15 walks and 16 hits spanning his last four trips to the hill.

The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (6-6, 3.22) who had his start pushed back to Friday. Over 19 starts the 22-year old has exceeded expectations, posting the 3.22 ERA and a 127/36 K/W over 103.1 frames of work. 

I’m banking on Flaherty getting the better of his now scuffling rookie counterpart. Great price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phllies (6:05 EST).

All eyes will be in Philadelphia on Friday night for the much anticipated pitching match-up between the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. I think Nola is the safe wager here though, as he’s been unbeatable at home to this point.

Syndergaard (8-2, 3.22 ERA) comes in off a couple of strong outings since coming off the DL. It’s hard to say anything negative about Syndergaard, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

Nola (13-3, 2.28) comes in off back-to-back strong performances as well. His 0.99 WHIP and 144/40 K/W over 148 innings, combined with his perfect 8-0, 2.07 ERA record at home make the Phillies the correct call here. 

Lay the price, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10*) 8:10 EST

The Tigers lost 6-5 at home to the White Sox yesterday afternoon, while the Twins were busy taking care of business in a 6-4 victory at home over the Pirates. While neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Francisco Liriano (3-7, 4.42 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings off six hits with four walks in a loss to these very Twins last Saturday. His peripherals (7.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9) suggest that further regression is in store down the stretch.

The home side counters with Ervin Santana (0-1, 6.53) who gave up five runs off three hits over six innings while striking out five in a loss to Detroit last Friday. Santana has struggled since returning from the DL, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to start reversing that trend and making some positive ground with his numbers. 

Note as well that Minnesota is 33-23 (+7.3 units) at home this year, while Detroit is just 18-41 (-14.8 units) on the road.

I like Santana to put together his best effort yet and to find a way to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:35 EST

Colorado was busy losing 12-1 in Houston last night after taking the first two games of its inter-league series earlier in the week, while Atlanta pulled away late for a 5-2 win over the Marlins.

I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in the opener of this one as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (9-7, 4.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over eight innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Sunday. Gray has been fantastic of late, but regression does seem imminent at some point. Note that he’s still just 4-4 with a  poor 4.99 ERA on the road this year as well.

The home side counters with Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.33) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Teheran has been decent overall this season though and has been better at home (4-2, 3.79) than on the road (4-5, 4.93).

I think Gray takes a step back and I like Teheran to take advantage in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) 7:05 EST

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday, but I think that the home side bounces back with its ace on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off a couple of crummy starts against the Padres and Nationals. Overall Lester has been strong and while it’s too early yet to hit the panic button, recent form displayed suggests that the veteran is running out of gas.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42) who gave up four runs over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to St. Louis on Saturday. Nova’s numbers have all been regressing as well over the last month, but he’s been much better at home (3.25 ERA) than on the road (5.38).

Chicago is still just 10-11 (-2.9 units) in its last 21 against clubs with winning records, while Pitsburgh is 14-10 (+6.2 units) in its last 24 in the same position.

I like Nova to continue his steady play at home and I look for the Pirates to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat by taking advantage of a now scuffling Lester. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think the Reds offer great value in a bounce back roll at home today after yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.24 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Bieber has been better than average this year with a 58/11 K/W over 57 innings of work. But note that his 4.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP aren’t anything to write home about.

The home side counters with Robert Stephenson (0-1, 6.75) who has been called up to make this start. Stephenson comes in on top form, having posted a minuscule 1.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 68/22 K/W over 56 innings spanning nine starts in Triple-A.

Despite yesterday’s setback, note that Cincinnati is still a profitable 10-7 (+4.3 units) this year in all inter-league contests. 

And despite yesterday’s win, note that Cleveland is still a money-burning 3-6 (-5.6 units) in its last nine on the road as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. 

I like Stephenson to get the better of Bieber. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (3:35 EST).

I had a play on the A’s in their victory yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (8-7, 4.11 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Sunday. Leake’s been decent of late, but I still think he’ll have his hands full today with this difficult opponent/venue.

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.53) who went seven scoreless against Detroit on Friday, allowing one walk and striking out two in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. It was his third quality start of the year and there’s no reason not to think that the veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well (note that Anderson sports a very respectable 3.25 ERA in all day games so far this year).

Note as well that Seattle is a sub-par 19-20 (-6 units) this year against southpaws, while Oakland is 47-29 (+21.9 units) this season against right-handed pitching.

Look for Anderson to get the better of his veteran counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that one came up empty, I like the revenge-minded home side to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-7, 3.40 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over eight innings on a no-decision to Colorado on Friday. 

Guerra is putting together his best campaing of his four year career, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (8-9, 4.02) who gave up two runs while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Washington on Friday. While he’s just 4-6 at home, he sports a much better ERA in Chicago (3.29) compared to on the road (4.65).

Note that despite yesterday’s victory, the Brewers are still just 18-30 (-16.1 units) in all day games this year. And despite yesterday’s setback, note that the Cubs are still 36-21 (+5.3 units) in all day contests this season. 

I like Hendricks to get the better of Guerra and for the Cubs to answer for yesterday’s setback. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (8*) 10:10 EST

I think this match-up on the mound favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Angels hand the ball to Jaime Barria (7-7, 3.59 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently going five scoreless in a victory. Barria has to be feeling confident here as he enters with the highly respectable 3.25 ERA on the road so far.

The home side counters with the volatile Brett Kennedy (0-1, 13.50) who went 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA over 89.1 innings in Triple-A before then getting destroyed in his MLB debut against the Brewers. The sky is the limit for Kennedy perhaps, but I think he’s going to struggle again against this opportunistic and talented Angels’ line-up.

I’m banking on Barria continuing his strong play on the road, while recent form displayed by the Padres’ rookie points to another “long” night. Great price, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10*) 10:05 EST

Oakland’s Mike Fiers was “on fire” for the Tigers for well over a month before he was traded and the veteran right-hander has carried that momentum over after two starts for his new team as well.

The Mariners’ James Paxton is putting together another fine campaign, but I think he’ll have his hands full against the surging Fiers and the hard-hitting home side.

Paxton (10-5, 3.63 ERA) comes in off back-to-back strong outings, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.44 ERA on the road this season.

Fiers (7-6, 3.40) has looked dominant in back-to-back outings as well for the A’s and there’s no reason not to think that the crafty right-hander can’t carry that momentum over here.

Now throw in the fact that the A’s are 25-14 in their last 39 as a home dog in the +105 to +135 range, then there’s no question in my mind that the value in this one is indeed on Oakland.

Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nationals (8*) 8:15 EST

I like Gio Gonzalez to get the better of John Gant in this matchup on the mound.

Gonzalez (7-8, 3.89 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” over the last month and a half, but he’s coming off a decent outing against the Braves and note that he owns a very respectable 3.99 ERA on the road to this point.

Gant (4-4, 3.89) comes in off a win over Miami on Wednesday, allowing one run over six innings of work. Gant still only has three quality starts out of his 11 trips to the hill this season though and note that the Cards have struggled in this spot as well by going just 2-8 in their last ten at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. 

I like Gonzalez to get back on track and I expect the Nationals to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin (11-4, 3.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Padres on Wednesday. In his previous outing he had been rocked for nine runs with three long-balls. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about Chacin though, as overall this season he’s been sharp. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (10-8, 4.28) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing five runs while striking out four over 6.1 innings of work. 

Quintana has had a couple blow-ups this season, but note that he’s 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine National League day contests in which its a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range. 

I’m banking on Quintana getting back on track and for the Cubs to take advantage. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST).

The Cards won big on the road in Kansas City over the weekend and I think they carry that momentum over here at home against the visiting Nationals, who were in action on Sunday night.

Washington hands the ball to Tommy Milone (1-1, 5.50 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over seven innings in a victory over the anemic Mets on Monday. So far he’s looked sharp since getting the call up from Triple-A, allowing just four runs over 12 innings of work. However, there’s no question that this represents his most difficult outing so far.

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (12-3, 2.74) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Marlins on Tuesday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, note that Mikolas also sports an elite 1.07 WHIP (additionally note that he’s been especially tough at home with the 5-3, 2.01 ERA record thus far.)

I’m banking on Mikolas continuing his steady play at home, while all signs point to Milone showing some regression after his decent start. Lay the price, play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe that Mike Clevinger and the hard-hitting visiting side could in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup.

Clevinger (7-7, 3.38 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. It was a big step in the right direction after a three-game slump and I think the right-hander carries that momentum over here. Note that he owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and he has 139 K’s over 139.2 innings of work this season.

The home side counters with Homer Bailey (1-9, 6.19) who was most recently rocked for five runs off 11 hits over three innings in a loss to the Mets on Monday. With a 1.59 WHIP and just 54 K’s over 80 innings of work, Bailey can only be viewed as a complete disaster at this point.

Note that Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.85 ERA at home as well.

I like Clevinger to carry over his recent momentum, while recent form displayed by Bailey suggests he has another long night in store for him against the Tribe’s big bats. Lay the price, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and that’s what I’m basing this particular selection on.

And that’s because I absolutely believe that Mets’ ace Jacob DeGrom can easily match Yanks’ ace Luis Severino inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I in turn believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog.

DeGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits with nine K’s over eight innings in an unfortunate setback to Atlanta on Friday. He now has 14 straight quality starts and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by posting a 1.91 ERA thus far.

Severino (15-5, 3.11) gave up four runs off seven hits with three walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to Boston on Friday. Severino comes in with zero momentum, having posted a deplorable 8.28 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 21/7 K/W over his last 25 innings of work.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly asses a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Severino is in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Bank on the Mets finally giving DeGrom some support vs. the struggling Severino.

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

While Cole Hamels has looked decent in two appearances for his new club, I think he’s going to stumble on the national stage facing Washington’s high-powered line-up and squaring off against Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer.

Scherzer (15-5, 2.28 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday. His peripherals suggest that he can maintain his form (0.90 WHIP) to the end and note that he’s got to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s so far 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA on the road.

Hamels (7-9, 4.38) gave up one run to the Royals over six innings in his last start.

I think Hamels though will not be able to match pace with Scherzer and I look for the Nationals to build off their big win on Saturday. Overall a fantastic price in my opinion, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (9*) 3:40 EST

I like the home side to bounce back and take the finale of this three-game series.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.11 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Diamondbacks on Monday, going eight scoreless while striking out four. His peripherals (poor 9.8 percent K/BB rate) suggest that his numbers are unsustainable down the stretch though and I’m expecting regression sooner, rather than later. 

The home side counters with Joey Lucchesi (5-6, 3.70) who gave up three runs (just two earned) while striking out nine in an unfortunate no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. The hard-throwing southpaw comes into this one sporting an impressive 87/28 K/W so far.

The Phillies are 64-51 overall this season, but just 26-33 (-4.6 units) on the road. I think that Lucchesi can match Arrieta inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog home side. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 1:35 EST

I like Milwaukee to build off yesterday’s 4-2 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (7-7, 3.81 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits with four K’s over five innings in a no-decision on Tuesday. Previous to that he’d posted three straight quality efforts and he still comes in sporting a very respectable 100/48 K/W over 125.1 innings of work. Additionally note that Anderson owns a sharp 2.59 ERA in all road games this season.

The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (10-5, 3.15) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Over his last three starts the 25 year old has conceded just three runs. I’ll point out though that if he’s had one “weak” area, it’s been his play on the road where he owns a rather pedestrian 3-3, 4.50 ERA record to this point.

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, as Milwaukee is 9-6 (+4.2 units) in its last 15 against clubs with winning records, while Atlanta is just 8-12 (-2 units) in its last 20 in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 1:10 EST

I like the Reds to build off their 6-3 victory yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (12-6, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off a couple of strong outings. Godley has admittedly been much better of late, but note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA at home, compared to 6-4 with a  5.96 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Luis Castillo (6-9, 4.91) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a tough-luck loss to Washington on Sunday. He’d go on to throw 61 of his 88 pitches for strikes and he’s now allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four trips to the hill.

Arizona is the “better” team here overall clearly, but note that it’s still just 17-21 (-6.6 units) in all day games this season. The Reds have struggled all year in most statistical categories, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’re now a solid 14-8 (+10.2 units) in their last 22 against teams with winning records.

I’m banking on Castillo getting the better of Godley. Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

I think that Joe Flaherty and the hard-hitting visiting side could easily be a lot larger favorites in this one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Cards hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (5-6, 3.27 ERA) who went six scoreless against the Pirates on Sunday, allowing three hits and posting seven strikeouts. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Flaherty also sports a sharp 1.10 WHIP and 11.0 K/9. 

The home side counters the volatile Danny Duffy (7-10, 4.70) who was most recently rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over six innings in a loss to Minnesota on Sunday. To go along with his poor ERA, Duffy also owns a pedestrian 1.48 WHiP. 

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is 10-6 on the road this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while KC is just 6-10 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST).

I played James Paxton and the Mariners in the opener of this series (a victory) and I’m back on the visiting side here as well, as I think that Wade LeBlanc and the hard hitting M’s have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. 

LeBlanc (6-2, 3.81 ERA) gave up one run off two hits with one walk while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Texas on Monday. LeBlanc bounced back from a rough start in his previous outing and while he’s been far from perfect, his 1.15 WHIP and 90 K’s over 113 innings are both respectable.

The home side counters with Charlie Morton (12-2, 2.81) who gave up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Monday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Morton, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that LeBlanc can match his effort inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I do indeed believe that the value swings to the hungry dog.

Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (6:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Kyle Gibson (5-9, 3.60 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out three over five innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gibson this year and to go along with his very respectable overall ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.24 WHIP and 135/56 K/W over 140 innings (note as well that he owns a very respectable 3.23 ERA on the road.)

The home side goes with Francisco Liriano (3-6, 4.37) who gave up two runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland on Sunday. Liriano has struggled overall this season though, coming in with a pedestrian 73/51 K/W over 90.2 inning (note that he has a poor 5.08 ERA at home as well.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 12-4 (+6.6 units) in its last 16 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.

I’m banking on Gibson carrying over his steady play on the road, while I expect Liriano to once again take a step back at home. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (6-12, 4.21 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the anemic Reds on Sunday, giving up one run off seven hits while striking out two in the eventual victory. Roark has looked decent with three straight victories, but I’ll point out that he’s still a horrible 2-6 on the road to this point.

The home side counters with Jon Lester (12-4, 3.44) who comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, allowing five runs off eight hits with two walks in a 10-6 loss to the Padres on Sunday. 

Lester has admittedly struggled over the last month after an unbelievable start to the 2018 campaign, but the veteran has to be feeling confident here as he’s still 5-2 with a respectable 3.41 ERA at home this season. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 12-19 (-15.2 units) against southpaws this year (also only 22-23 in all day games), while Chicago is 35-20 (+5.6 units) this season in all day contests and 50-39 against right-handed starters.

I’m banking on Lester getting the better of Roark. Great price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (9*) 7:35 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (5-2, 3.54 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits with two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Rockies on Saturday. Overall the rookie has been solid across the board, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side goes with Kevin Gausman (5-9, 4.47) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. 

Gausman will look to earn his first win for his new team this time around though and take advantage of the fact that Atlanta is 28-22 at home overall and 14-9 (+5.4 units) at home when the money line in the contest is between +125 and -125. 

Milwaukee is 66-52 overall, but just 3-5 in August and I think further regression is in store here in the opener of this difficult series. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

I like Zach Wheeler to out-duel the volatile Jose Urena in this one.

Wheeler (6-6, 3.89 ERA) most recently gave up three hits and one walk while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over Atlanta on Saturday. 

Wheeler was on top form in that one, throwing 73 of his 104 pitches for strikes, while also generating 16 swinging strikes. Over his last 38.2 innings of work Wheeler has now given up just 11 earned runs, while posting 39 K’s. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA on the road as well.

Urena (3-11, 4.66) most recently got rocked for six runs off eight hits, including three dingers in a loss to the Phillies on Saturday. It was the third time in his last four trips to the hill that the declining right-hander has given up at least five or more earned runs. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Urena will not be able to match pace with the red hot Wheeler. Great price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 7:10 EST

Ultimately I believe that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to think.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (5-1, 2.68 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks and eight K’s in a victory over the Giants on Saturday. It was his fourth straight victory, a stretch in which he’s allowed no more than three runs in any start. Note that he’s been particularly tough on the road as well with a 3-1, 2.10 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Anthony DeSclafani (5-3, 4.98) who gave up one run off six hits with a walk over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. DeSclafani though has been very lacklustre at home with the 2-2, 5.85 ERA record to this point.

I think Buchholz is the correct call here. Great value overall considering how well the veteran has performed on the road. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay the very reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think that Blake Snell and the visiting side could easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup North of the border.

The Rays hand the ball to ace Snell (12-5, 2.27 ERA) who returned from the ten-day DL to make a start against the White Sox last Thursday and he looked good in his limited time, giving up one run over four innings. Snell has been solid on the road as well with a 6-4, 3.34 ERA record so far.

The home side counters with the volatile Marco Estrada (5-8, 4.65) who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Saturday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Estrada over the last two seasons though and his 10.4 percent K/BB rate this year is his worst since 2008. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 4.90 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is already 15-10 (+4.4 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Toronto is just 9-15 (-6.5 units) at home with a money line in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST)

Justin Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last year, but James Paxton hasn’t been too shabby either in that span. I think Paxton and the hard-hitting Mariners have much more than just a “punchers chance” on Thursday night.

Paxton (9-5, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off eight hits over seven innings while striking out seven and issuing one walk in an unfortunate loss to Toronto on Saturday.

Paxton was on top form, generating 17 swinging strikes on 105 pitches. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA on the road as well and 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA in all night games.

Verlander (11-6, 2.19) most recently gave up one run while striking out 14 over 7.2 innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It’s basically impossible to say anything negative about Verlander, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because Houston is just 1-4 in its last five as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Seattle is 47-30 (+15.8 unit) against right-handed starters. 

I like Paxton to match Verlander inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (9*) 10:05 EST

I had a play on the Dodgers last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done on Wednesday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 2.55 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Thursday. Kershaw has now posted six straight quality starts, going 4-1 with 35 K’s over 38.1 innings of work in the process. Note that he owns a tiny 1.94 ERA on the road as well so far.

The home side goes with the newly acquired Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.48) who was on fire for the Tigers before the trade, posting a 2.10 ERA over six starts. Fiers is enjoying a resurgent campaign after going 8-10 with a 5.22 ERA last season. 

I think it’s important to note that LA is 35-25 against clubs with winning records this year, while Oakland is just 27-32 in the same position. 

I love Kershaw in this spot, as I think Fiers will stumble in his first outing for his new club. Lay the price, play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

Boston pulled away/held on for the 10-7 win in the opener of this three game series yesterday and I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here as well.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Brian Johnson (2-3, 3.74 ERA) who earned a win over the Yanks on Thursday despite allowing five runs off six hits. The silver-lining behind the rather pedestrian effort was that he’d go on to strike out 11. Note that he owns a 2.22 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Mike Hauschild (1-0, 0.00) who went six scoreless to earn a win over Seattle in his big league debut last week. Clearly it was a great start to his career, but I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent performance, as note that Hauschild would post a poor 4.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over 97 innings at Triple-A Fresno.

I’ll point out as well that Boston has been dominant in this spot for bettors all season by going 62-23 (+27.2 units) vs. right-handed starters, while Toronto comes in having gone just 14-26 (-11 units) against southpaws this year. 

I like Johnson to find a way to get the job done here and for the hard-hitting Red Sox to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (8*) 4:05 EST

The Angels hammered the Tigers 11-5 yesterday and I think another blowout is in the cards this afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Blaine Hardy (4-3, 3.25 ERA) who struck out six and went seven scoreless in a victory over the A’s on Friday. Hardy has been excellent in a starters role and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Jaime Barria (6-7, 3.84) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Cleveland on Friday. Barria has been solid as a starter as well this year and he has to be feeling pretty confident here as he sports an elite 2.15 ERA in all day games this season.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 9-19 (-5.9 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while LA is 17-10 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

All things considered, I feel this line could in fact be a lot larger. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 3:40 EST

I think the Diamondbacks will bounce back here after yesterday’s late loss to the Phillies.

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (8-8, 3.80 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over the Marlins on Friday. After a rocky stretch, Velasquez has gotten back on track and it is in fact quite difficult to say too many negative things about the right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (8-4, 3.31) who comes in off a strong outing as well last Friday against San Francisco, conceding three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out eight and walking zero. Corbin sports an elite 1.06 WHIP and 174 K’s to go along with 12 quality starts this season.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is still just 25-31 (-3.6 units) on the road this year, while Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine after scoring one or less runs in its previous outing. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (10:05 EST).

I think Rich Hill can carry over his recent momentum and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to do the rest.

Hill (4-4, 3.63 ERA) gave up one run off six hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. 

Hill has now allowed only two earned runs while striking out 23 over his last 19 innings of work. Since returning from the DL in mid June he’s posted a tiny 2.36 ERA and all signs point to the veteran continuing his progression.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (10-7, 3.38) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings while striking out five in a victory over Toronto on Wednesday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 as a road fav in the -105 to -125 range. I think this one favors the National League team. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (9:40 EST).

I think Nick Pivetta offers great value in the underdog role here. 

Pivetta (6-9, 4.75 ERA) comes in off a great start against the Marlins on Thursday, giving up two runs off four hits with zero walks and striking out seven over six innings in what ultimately turned out to be a no-decision. 

Pivetta ranks 14th in the entire league with 141 K’s over just 113.2 innings of work this year. 

The home side counters with Zack Greinke (12-6, 2.96) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Greinke, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine as a road dog in the +150 to +225 range. Everything points to an upset, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Pomeranz (1-5, 6.56 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out three over five innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. He threw just 50 of his 95 pitches for strikes and hit two batters. He also had diminished velocity at 89.1 MPH.

The home side goes with Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.63) who comes in off an outing to forget against the A’s on Wednesday, giving up seven runs off 11 hits over five innings. He gave up more runs in this “dud” than in his previous four outings combined, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor performance.

Both starters have struggled this season, but I look for Stroman to get back on track in friendly confines and easily get the better of the “gas can” Pomeranz. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (3:45 EST).

I think this one favors the surging Dallas Keuchel and the defending champs.

Keuchel (9-9, 3.61 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and a walk over seven innings in a win over the Mariners on Wednesday. It was his fifth quality start in his last six trips to the hill and I think he carries over that consistent momentum here (also note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the road this season.) 

The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 2.97) who gave up one earned run off seven hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings in a victory over Arizona on Thursday. 

Bumgarner was perhaps a bit “lucky,” as he allowed ten base runners in the victory and he only generated 11 swinging strikes on 101 total pitches. Also note that his 3.7 BB/9 over 66.2 innings leaves everything to be desired.

Bumgarner’s peripherals suggest that his numbers are unsustainable and I look for the Astros to take advantage. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I think the home side will find a way to get the job done here in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.32 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Boston on Tuesday. For the most part Arrieta has been as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for this season, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (12-6, 4.46) who went seven scoreless against Texas on Tuesday, giving up two hits and one walk to go along with ten strikeouts. 

Godley looked dominant in producing 19 swinging strikes. Note that he’s posted a 2.73 ERA and a 36/8 K/W over his last 29.2 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 7-3 in its last ten as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) 9:40 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (4-5, 3.63 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Sunday. Musgrove has admittedly been decent since the All-Star Game, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (9-7, 3.20) who gave up three runs while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. 

Freeland’s been far from perfect, but he’s still given up three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts and note that he’s been particularly effective at hitter friendly Coors Field, sporting an awesome 6-2, 2.45 ERA at home thus far.

I think Musgrove stumbles and I like Freeland to continue his steady play in front of the home town crowd. Great price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) 7:10 EST

I like St. Louis to build off yesterday’s 2-1 win at Pittsburgh, while I look for Miami to have a letdown here after its 5-3 loss at Philadelphia.

The visitors hand the ball to Luke Weaver (6-9, 4.75 ERA) who gave up two runs while striking out three over 2.2 innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Wednesday. It was his shortest start of the year, but Weaver clearly catches a break here facing the Marlins’ anemic line-up. 

The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (3-8, 5.86) who has been better at home than on the road, but note that he’s still a terrible 1-7 with a 5.86 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 15-10 in its last 25 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami just 3-7 in its last ten as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range.

I think Weaver can out-duel his inconsistent counterpart and I like the Cardinals’ big bats to do the rest. Lay the price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but in this case I think it’s well justified. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Homer Bailey (1-8, 5.87 ERA) who gave up two runs over eight innings in a setback to Detroit on Tuesday. Bailey’s shown some life in back-to-back decent performances, but I’ll caution in reading too much into this recent stretch of competency. And that’s because he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA in all night contests this year.

The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (6-2, 2.98) who gave up three runs while striking out four over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Washington on Wednesday.

Syndergaard returned from injury and looked pretty good. Suffice it to say, i think the hard-throwing right-hander continues his progression in this favorable matchup and in friendly confines (note that he owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 87/16 K/W so far this season as well.)

Look for a rested and focused Syndergaard to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST).

I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Yefry Ramirez (1-4, 4.59 ERA) who gave up six runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Tuesday. Overall the 24 year old has been decent, but he was clearly in over his head in that particular matchup. 

I’ll point out as well though that while he’s 1-2 with a respectable 3.86 EA at home, he’s a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.30 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (2-4, 6.50) who gave up four runs (just one earned) off six hits with two walks while striking out five in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Monday. In his previous outing he’d give up one run over six innings with four K’s against the red hot A’s. 

Clearly Perez has been a disaster over his short time this season, but it’s also quite clear that he’s starting to turn the corner with his overall level of play.

And I think the veteran will continue his progression here as he faces the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Lay the price, play on the Rangers.

NOTE: There’s been an over night pitching change for the Rangers. Perez is out and rookie Drew Hutchinson (1-1, 4.64 ERA) is in. The Rangers signed him earlier this week and he went 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA over 42 innings at Triple-A and he’s thrown 23 consecutive scoreless innings. Note that this play is STILL ACTIVE.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (2:10 EST).

Danny Duffy started the 2018 campaign horribly, but he’s quietly turned things around over the last month. Suffice it to say, I absolutely believe that the crafty southpaw offers much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Duffy (7-9, 4.50 ERA) most recently went six scoreless against the White Sox on Tuesday, striking out seven and walking two. Over his last six starts he’s managed to post three scoreless efforts going 3-2 with a very respectable 3.38 ERA in that span.

The home side counters with the volatile Ervin Santana (0-0, 6.10) who most recently gave up four runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Monday. Over 10.1 innings spanning two starts since coming back from injury, Santana has allowed seven earned runs. 

It’s the perfect opponent for Duffy to take advantage of and to continue his considerable momentum against. And I think he’s up for the task. Great value on the hungry dog in this one, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (1:10 EST).

While far from perfect this season, I still think that Julio Teheran and the hard-hitting visiting side offer great value in this one.

Teheran (8-7, 4.46 ERA) most recently conceded three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a victory over Miami on Monday, also going on to strike out four. 

Admittedly the veteran hasn’t been at his best of late, but I still don’t think there’s any need to panic or over-react.

Especially facing Mets’ starter Corey Oswalt (1-2, 5.27) who has been called up from Triple-A Las Vegas to make this start in place of the injured Steven Matz. 

Oswalt has posted the poor 5.27 ERA over 27.1 big league innings and I think the rookie will struggle against Atlanta’s opportunistic sluggers.

I base my picks on many different things, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Teheran is the correct call. Look for Oswalt to take another step-back on the short-notice. Lay the price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (9*) 9:10 EST

A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I think that Kenta Maeda has the advantage with being able to throw in front of the home town crowd.

The visitors send Lance McCullers (10-6, 4.06 ERA) to the hill and he gave up four runs off six hits while striking out 11 over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. 

McCullers was 1-3 in July and he comes in having lost three straight, giving up 15 runs over 13.2 innings in that span.

The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.48) who gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Brewers on Monday. 

Over his previous ten starts though Maeda had posted a 2.34 ERA and 0.99 WHIP to go along with an elite 10.8 K/9, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor outing.

McCullers on the other hand has clearly been struggling across the board and I think that trend carries over. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (7-9, 4.53 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits in a win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing though as note that it was his first win since mid June and he also gave up 15 runs over his previous three outings. 

The home side goes with Mike Minor (7-6, 4.73) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out eight in a win over the Astros on Sunday. Minor’s been far from perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd by going 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA thus far.

Long story short, I’m banking on Bundy taking a predictable step-back here, while Minor looks poised to build off his recent performance. All things considered a very fair price in my opinion. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 7:10 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.69 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Monday. Anderson has been decent over the last month, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

The home side counters with Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.61) who gave up one earned run over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. Peralta faced the Rockies in his big-league debut back on May 13th and he’d give up one hit while striking out 13 over 5.2 innings. 

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine as road dog in the +125 to +150 range, while Milwaukee is 7-3 in its last ten as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

I like Peralta to take advantage of familiar surroundings and to help his team find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

Here’s another one where I think that the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-8, 4.43 ERA) who makes his first start for his new team after posting a 1.38 WHIP over 124 innings for Baltimore. Note that Gausman was particularly average on the road by going 0-2 with a 4.78 ERA.

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (5-6, 4.11) who went six shutout innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday, allowing five hits, one walk and posting seven K’s. 

Wheeler has now produced back-to-back quality starts, while posting a 10/2 K/W in that span. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by Wheeler suggests that we’re getting awfully good value on the under-valued home side tonight. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST).

Considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound, I absolutely believe that this line could in fact be a lot larger.

The visitors hand the ball to Chance Adams, who makes his big league debut in a very difficult stadium. Over 29.1 innings in Triple-A he’s posted a 3.07 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a 30/17 K/W.

The home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi (4-4, 3.80) who was brilliant in his debut for the Red Sox on Sunday vs. the Twins, going seven shutout innings, while striking out five. Over 11 appearances this year Eovaldi has a tiny 0.94 WHIP and 58 K’s over 64 innings of work.

Adams has looked pretty good at the Triple-A level, but clearly he faces an extremely difficult task here. Eovaldi on the other hand comes in confident and I think he’ll take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

I think Justin Verlander and the defending champs offer great value in this spot. 

Verlander (10-6, 2.24 ERA) comes in off a tough-luck loss against the Rangers on Saturday, allowing two runs off nine hits and a walk over five innings while striking out seven. He’ll be extra motivated here as he’s dropped four of his last five decision.

Verlander has to be feeling confident in this spot though as he’s 8-2 with a minuscule 1.81 ERA on the road thus far. 

The home side counters with Alex Wood (7-5, 3.68) who comes in off a win over Atlanta on Saturday, allowing one hit and four walks over 5.2 scoreless innings of work. Wood looks poised for a letdown here after six straight winning decisions though in my opinion.

Note as well that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -105 to -125 range, while LA is just 10-16 in its last 26 as a home dog in the +100 to +125 range.

I expect Verlander to get back into the winners circle and get the better of his inter-league counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think Chris Archer offers great value in his first start for his new team.

The visitors go with John Gant (3-4, 3.49 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. So far he’s only gone past 5.1 innings twice in eight starts this year.

Archer (3-5, 4.31) will be pitching in six days rest. Over his last eight starts Archer has posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 50 K’s spanning 43.1 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that the veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in this pitcher friendly park.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is a money-burning 39-39 (-8.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is 43-36 (+7.4 units) against right-handed starters.

I like Archer to get off on the “right foot” for his new team. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST).

As decent as Vince Velasquez has been of late, I absolutely believe that the under-rated Jose Urena and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Urena (3-10, 4.40 ERA) comes in off a gem against Washington on Sunday, going six scoreless, allowing one hit and striking out five in the victory. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, he owns a respectable 1.23 WHIP and 98/34 K/W over 118.2 innings of work.

Velasquez (7-8, 4.02) gave up two runs off six hits with five walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Saturday. As mentioned off the top Velasquez has been sharp over the last month or so, but despite that I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 5-5 with a 5.31 ERA at home this season.

For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” In a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-3, 5.01 ERA) who gave up one earned run off five hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Senzatela has made four straight starts and over those 24 innings of work he’s conceded 11 runs. 

And oddly enough, note that Senzatela has been much better at home (3-0, 3.00 ERA at hitter friendly Coors Field), compared to just 1-3 with a ballooned 7.08 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikiolas (11-3, 2.83) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk with two K’s over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. 

Mikolas comes in red hot, having conceded three or fewer runs in seven straight outings. Note that he’s 5-3 with a 2.09 ERA at home as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Rockies are just 14-22 in all day games so far this season, while St. Louis is 24-20. 

All things considered, I do indeed think we’re getting great line value on Mikolas and the home side. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory as it looks to take advantage of Cole Hamels’ first outing as a member of the Chicago Cubs.

Hamels (5-9, 4.72 ERA) comes in on eight days rest after allowing seven runs off nine hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland on Monday. Hamels has actually been much better on the road this year than in home confines, but I still think he’s in over his head in his first start for his new team.

The home side counters with Nick Kingham (5-5, 4.80) who comes in off an outing to forget as well against the Mets on Thursday, allowing six earned runs off seven hits with four walks while striking out one over three innings in the eventual setback. 

Kingham though has been much better at home (3-2, 3.91 ERA) than on the road (2-3, 5.54) this season.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 14-16 (-2.7 units) this year in all road games when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine at home when the money line falls in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

I lost with the Reds last night, but I think they’ll find a way to bounce back here.

The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (6-8, 5.04 ERA) who earned a win over St. Louis on Wednesday, conceding two runs off seven hits and a walk with five K’s over six innings of work. The hard-throwing right-hander would throw 66 of his 99 pitches for strikes and I look for him to carry that momentum over here in this favorable venue.

The home side counters with Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.54) who went 6.1 shutout innings against the Red Sox on Saturday. Fiers has been on top form of late, but his peripherals (6.7 K/9 on the season) point to regression sooner rather than later in my opinion. 

I’ll point out as well that despite yesterday’s loss, the Reds are still 10-4 (+7.4 units) in all inter-league contests this season, while the Tigers are still only 2-9 (-6.2 units) in the same position.

Great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry dog. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (9*) 10:10 EST

I had a play on Houston in its 2-0 loss last night, but I think it’ll bounce back here in the second game of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and four walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Wednesday. While it wasn’t his best overall effort, he was still in line for the victory when he handed the game over to the bullpen. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Morton also owns an elite 11.5 K/9. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15) who gave up two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco on Wednesday. Leake has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.80 ERA at home this season.

I’ll point out as well that Houston has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 in its last nine after getting shutout in its previous outing. 

All things considered, I think this line could in fact be a lot larger. Great value, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think the Reds can take the opener of this inter-league series. 

The visitors go with Homer Bailey (1-7, 6.29 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits with two walks and eight K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Cardinals on Tuesday. There’s no sugar-coating an overall disappointing season for Bailey to this point, but clearly this latest effort was a big step in the right direction.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Boyd (5-9, 4.53) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Kansas City on Wednesday. Boyd struggled down the stretch of the first half and he’s looked decent of late, but note that he’s still just 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year.

Note as well that Cincinnati is a sharp 10-3 (+8.4 units) already this season in all inter-league contests, while Detroit is 1-9 (-7.2 units) in the same position. Great value, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 7:05 EST

I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in the opener of this National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (5-8, 3.79 ERA) who earned a win over Pittsburgh on Thursday despite giving up four earned runs off three hits with two walks over six innings. Over his last 17.1 innings of work Matz has now conceded 12 earned runs.

The home side counters with Tanner Roark (4-12, 4.55) who gave up three hits and a walk over eight scoreless in a victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday, also going on to strike out 11. 

Overall Roark has struggled this season, but clearly this was a big step in the right direction. 

Both teams have been a disappointment this year, but I think Roark has the major advantage throwing in friendly confines and I expect him to build off his latest gem. Matz has been poor overall this season as well, especially on the road.

Lay the price, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry