Cappers Sports Picks

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:05 ET.

The Padres now take on the Rangers for a four-game home-and-home series, beginning tonight at Globe Life Field Arlington. As for the Rangers, they return home from Colorado where they won two of three against the Rockies. Although Texas had its four-game winning streak snapped Sunday afternoon (lost 10-6), the Rangers are still 7-2 over their last nine games after a 3-8 start. However, it seems like a 'lifetime ago' that Texas went to back-to-back World Series (actually, it was 2010 & 2011), as the Rangers began this 60-game, 2020 season off THREE straight losing seasons, playing .459 baseball.

 Monday's starting pitchers are the Padres' Zach Davies (2-2, 2.78 ERA) and the Rangers' Jordan Lyles (1-1, 6.06 ERA). Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason. He's just 2-2 in his four starts but has deserved better. He's got an impressive 0.84 WHIP (18-3 kW ratio) and a .198 BAA, to go along with his 2.78 ERA. This will be Davies' 116th major league start but the first of his career against the Rangers. Jordan Lyles has pitched for SIX teams since beginning his career in 2011. He was just 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA for Pittsburgh in 2019, when he was traded to Milwaukee. Why would the Brewers want him? After all, at the time of the trade, his career record was 36-59 (5.29 ERA). However, Lyles was brilliant down the stretch for the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts Milwaukee was 10-1). In the 'world' of baseball these days, he used the brief stretch to get a two-year, $16 million deal with the Rangers. Should we really be surprised that he's got a 6.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in four appearances (three starts) for Texas, so far?

Lyles pitched for the Padres in 2017-18 and was 3-7 with a 5.53 ERA in 13 appearances (five starts). He is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in 14 career appearances (10 starts / 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA) against San Diego. San Diego is just 4-8 in its last 12 games (currently on a five-game slide) and has fallen below .500 for the first time in 2020. However, in a  scheduling quirk, all 23 of their games thus far have come against rivals from the NL West. An interleague series may be "just what the doctor ordered." The Padres have scored only 13 runs in their five-game skid but facing Jordan Lyles should cure that. Plus, Davies is pitching great. Padres snap their slide, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET.

Detroit left-hander Matthew Boyd (0-2, 10.24 ERA) gets the ball for the Tigers, while Chicago counters with left-hander Gio Gonzalez (0-1, 6.61 ERA). Boyd has not pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts in 2020 and is coming off a loss to the White Sox last Wednesday afternoon. Boyd allowed  seven ERs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings of a 7-5 loss. It shouldn't have been a surprise, as he's 4-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 career starts against the White Sox (Tigers are 5-10).

Gio Gonzalez is in his first season with Chicago and after four appearances (three starts), has a 2.08 WHIP and .351 BAA to go along with his plus-6.00 ERA. Gonzalez began his career with Oakland and put together two strong back-to-back seasons in 2010 (15-9, 3.23 ERA) and 2011 (16-12, 3.12 ERA). he was traded to Washington prior to the 2012 season and had a "Career year" in 2012, going 21-8,2.89 ERA. He remained a solid member of the Nats' rotation the next five years (2013-2017) but was traded to Milwaukee during the 2018 season. Injuries limited him to just 19 appearances (17 starts) for the Brewers in 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with the White Sox prior to the 2020 season.

Gonzalez had his best outing in his last start, coming within one out of notching his first victory as a member of the White Sox on Tuesday against the Tigers. He held them to two ERs in 4.2 innings of an 8-4 Chicago win in Detroit. Gonzalez has a decent pedigree (something Boyd does not) plus the Chicago bullpen has been a big plus for the team.  Jimmy Cordero has allowed one of 33 inherited runners to score (going back to the end of last season), while Matt Foster (10.2) and Ross Detwiler (11.1) extended their respective season-opening scoreless innings streaks on Sunday. Chicago wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET.

The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) will allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that still left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona does not expect to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs entered the season feeling as if a playoff berth was MORE than realistic. 

These two NL West foes opened the current season with the Padres winning THREE of four at Petco Park and the schedule had the two teams back in San Diego for a three-game series this past weekend. The Padres won that series 2-1 but after opening a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers with two wins at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday, they were outscored a combined 17-2 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the D'backs took two of three in Colorado (Mon-Wed), scoring 32 runs in the process.

The Padres opened this series 11-9, 2 1/2 games better than the 8-11 D'backs but Arizona finally got a chance to play San Diego in its home park (Chase Field).  The D'backs won 5-1 on Friday and then almost blew a 7-1 lead by allowing FIVE runs in the last two innings, before holding on for a 7-6 win. All of a sudden, the 10-11 D-backs can pass the 11-11 Padres with a win in the series finale on Sunday. Taking the mound for San Diego will be Garrett Richards (1-1, 3.74 ERA) and for Arizona, it will be Robbie Ray (1-2, 10.59 ERA).

Richards spent eight years with the Angels, before signing a two-year deal with San Diego. However, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss almost ALL of 2019 (made just three September appearances). Here in 2020, he's had two good and two not-so-good starts. One of the good ones was his 2020 debut at home vs the D'backs, when he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just one hit (no-decision). That should come as a surprise as he's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks (team is a more modest 3-2).

Ray came to Arizona back in 2015 but except for an excellent 2017 season (15-5, 2.89 ERA & 1.15 WHIP), he's been a mediocre pitcher (career record stands at 48-48 with a 4.25 ERA). Currently,  Arizona would LOVE to see some mediocrity out of Ray, the left-hander is set to make his fifth start of the season, trying to turn his 2020 campaign around. he has battled control and location problems en route to 14 walks in 17 innings of work, posting a 10.59 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and a .310 BAA. His 5-6 (4.40 ERA) career record in 17 starts vs SD (team is 9-8), doesn't bode well, either.

The Padres have lost four in a row (their longest losing streak of the season) but Ray is "just what the doctor ordered," while I expect Richards to give the Padres a strong outing.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to the Nationals. Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross took over for the Cubs. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell is in his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year.

These teams opened the current season at Wrigley, with the Cubs winning two of three. The teams are back at each other this weekend for a four-game series, again playing in Chicago. The Cubs entered the series 12-3 and won on Thursday to give them a MLB-best 13-3 record. Milwaukee fell to just 7-10 after Thursday's defeat but has rebounded to win back-to-back one-run contests (4-3 & 6-5 in 10 innings). As the two NL Central rivals complete their four-game set on Sunday, the Cubs are 13-5, 4 1/2 games up on the 9-10 Brewers (the Cards are 4-3 in the division, having lost 15 games due to COVID-19 issues). Sunday's starters will be Josh Lindblom (1-0, 5.68 ERA) for Milwaukee and Jon Lester (2-0, 1.06 ERA) for Chicago.

Lindblom has quite a story. He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2008 MLB draft and made his major league debut in relief on June 1, 2011. He then spent time with Philly, Texas and Oakland through 2014, before playing in the KBO in 2015 and '16. He signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 but pitched just four games, before returning to the KBO. He went 15-4 (2.98 ERA) in 2018 and 20-3 (2.50 ERA) in 2019, winning the MVP. That was enough for him to sign a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. This marks his fourth start of the season for the Brewers but the numbers aren't pretty, as he owns a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 ERA.  

In contrast, the 36-year-old Lester has bounced back from a difficult 2019 season in which he posted a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts (it marked his highest since 2012). Lester is in the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign and he's off to a strong start in his "contract year."  He has not allowed more than one run in any of his first three starts against the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians, posting an 0.65 WHIP and .117 BAA to go along with that 1.06 ERA. Lester is 5-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 career starts vs Milwaukee (teams are 6-5) and he's got 73 Ks in 69.2 innings. 

Current form says Lester over Lindblom and a look at history reveals that while Lindblom has made just 117 major league appearances (only NINE starts) with a 6-8 record (4.23 ERA), Lester made 414 starts with a 3.55 ERA and is closing in on 200 wins (192-108). Oh , by the way, he owns THREE World Series rings, 2007 & 2013 with the Red Sox and 2016 with the Cubs (note: he was the MVP of the NLCS in 2016). The Brewers will try for their first three-game winning streak of the season on Sunday but...Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:40 ET.

Taking the mound for the second contest of this three-game series on Saturday will be Walker Buehler (0-0, 4.40 ERA) for the Dodgers and Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.26 ERA) for the Angels. Buehler made 24 appearances (23 stars) for ten Dodgers in 2018 and while he was a modest 8-5, his 2,62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .193 BAA got EVERYONE's attention. Although most of his stats were a little higher in 2019 (3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA), he went 14-4 in 30 starts. He's yet to earn a "W" in three starts in 2020 but the Dodgers have won two of his three starts. His ERA is high at 4.40 but his WHIP remains low (1.05) and his BAA is a spectacular .143!

Andrew Heaney pitched seven games for Miami in 2014 but has been with the Angels since 2015. He entered this season 20-26 with a 4.44 ERA. He pitched well in his first three starts of 2020 (2.35 ERA) but  he is coming off his worst start of the season when he allowed five ERs on eight hits in just 3.2 innings last Sunday in a 7-3 loss against the Texas Rangers. It's NOT good news that the Angels have lost THREE of his four starts this season.

Heaney is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers (Angels are 2-2), while Buehler has faced the Angels just once (a no-decision in 2018 after allowing two runs on six hits in five innings). Not much history for either pitcher but recent and current history conclusively favors the Dodgers. My bet says Buehler is overdue for his first win of the season and it comes tonight, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies are just 6-9 to open the current season but are just FOUR games out of first place in the NL East. The Braves, who won the division in both 2018 and 2019, are struggling with injuries and are only 11-10, leaving the surprising 9-4 Marlins atop the division. The Phillies 'limped' into their three-game weekend series at home against the Mets off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. However, Bryce Harper singled home Roman Quinn in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Philly a dramatic 6-5 win last night. The Mets have pretty much been 'stuck in neutral,' as after 21 games they are just 9-12 (5-5 their last 10).

Taking the mound in this middle contest of  the three-game set will be Steven Matz (0-3, 8.20 ERA) for New York and Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79 ERA) for Philadelphia. Matz was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last season but 'the skinny' was he was AWFUL away from home (3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but terrific at Citi Field (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA).  However, in three home starts this season, he's allowed 12 ERs on 18 hits (including SIX homers!) in just 15.2 innings for a 6.89 ERA. He's made just one road start and it was 'ugly,' as he allowed five ERs on seven hits over three innings. It hardly inspires confidence that he's 2-4 with a5.56 ERA in six career starts vs the Phillies (Mets are 4-6).

Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' He had a shaky 2020 debut, losing 5-2 to Miami, when he allowed four ERs on five hits over 5.1 innings. However, in his two starts since, he's allowed just two runs (two solo HRs) on five hits over 14 innings (that's a 1.29 ERA). However, the more impressive stat is that he owns a 22-1 KW ratio in his last two starts and adding in his poor 2020 debut (but a 7-1 KW ratio), Nola has 29 Ks against just two walks on the season. Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET.

The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) will allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that still left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona does not expect to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs entered the season feeling as if a playoff berth was MORE than realistic. 

These two NL West foes opened the current season with the Padres winning THREE of four at Petco Park and the schedule had the two teams back in San Diego for a three-game series this past weekend. The Padres won that series 2-1 but after opening a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers with two wins at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday, they were outscored a combined 17-2 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the D'backs took two of three in Colorado (mon-Wed), scoring 32 runs in the process.

The Padres are 11-9, 2 1/2 games better than the 8-11 D'backs but Arizona finally gets to play San Diego in its home park (Chase Field). The Padres will send Dinelson Lamet (2-0, 1.61 ERA) to the mound on Friday, while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly (2-1, 2.29 ERA). Lamet's 1.61 ERA is fourth-best among NL starters who have made at least three starts this season, and he's taken a no-hitter past the fifth inning in each of his last two starts (Padres are 3-1 in his four starts). As for Kelly, he's been Arizona's most consistent starting pitcher in 2020, having gone at least six innings in each of his three starts in 2020. That includes a 3-2 win in San Diego on Aug 8 (one ER in six innings). I'll also note that Lamet beat the D'backs last weekend in San Diego as well, allowing just one run on one hit with 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings of that 9-5 Aug 9 win.

Both these young pitchers have been excellent so far but remember that Arizona was 15 games better than San Diego last season (I'm pretty sure Arizona will finish the 2020 season with a better record than San Diego, as well). Arizona got a much-needed jolt of confidence by not only taking two of three at Colorado this week but also by scoring 32 runs on 47 hits. Arizona's offense had been pretty much non-existent up to this week, as except for a 14-run outburst in a win over Houston on Aug 5, the D'backs were averaging just 2.8 RPG in their 14 other games, prior to their visit to Coors Field Mon-Wed. The D'backs have to be glad to finally get a home games vs the Padres and they win this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET.

The Atlanta Braves entered the 2020 MLB season having won the NL East in each of the previous two seasons (90 wins in 2018 and 97 in 2019). Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins opened the new season having not been to the postseason since they won the 2003 World Series, a stretch of 16 seasons (Miami was 57-108 in 2019!). The Braves opened 7-3 and then went 4-3 over theri next seven games. However, Atlanta visits Miami off THREE straight losses, having allowed 28 runs! Miami took two of three at Philadelphia to open the current season but then COVID-19 struck the organization. The Marlins would miss EIGHT games (did not play from July 27-Aug 4) but when they returned to the field of play, won SIX straight games. A three-game skid followed but Miami snapped that losing streak with a 14-11 win in 10 innings Wednesday at Toronto (actually, Buffalo).

With Miami at 8-4 and Atlanta at 11-9, this weekend's three-games series sets up as a battle for first place in the NL East (go figure!). The Braves will start Kyle Wright (0-2, 6.75 ERA) in Friday's game, while Miami will counter with Pablo Lopez (1-1, 1.80 ERA). Wright was the fifth overall draft pick in 2017 but has failed to live up to his potential, so far. The former Vanderbilt star is 0-5 with a 7.41 ERA in 14 career appearances, including seven starts. Lopez has surprised so far in his two starts (see above), after going 2-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts in 2018 and then 5-8 with 5.09 ERA in 21 starts in 2019 (Marlins were 7-14). 

The Braves are the NL East's best team but this season lasts just 60 games (not 162). They've already lost their best pitcher in 2019 All-Star Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA),as he  is out for the season due to a torn Achilles tendon. Superstar left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. will miss the Marlins series due to a sore left wrist plus second baseman Ozzie Albies (sore right wrist) remains sidelined.  Acuna and Albies combined for 229 runs, 65 doubles, 65 HRs and 187 RBI in 2019. Still, the Braves remain a deep team, featuring 1B Freddie Freeman, outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Nick Markakis plus shortstop Dansby Swanson. 

I'm not ready to call Wright a bust plus this Atlanta team is a much better group than Miami, even without some of its key players (see above). Lopez is familiar with Atlanta, having already faced them five times in his short career. However, while his ERA is a respectable 3.54 vs the Braves, he's 0-3 and Miami has lost all FIVE of his starts. Same old, same old in this one. Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The Milwaukee Brewers entered 2020 after earning the final NL wild card spot in 2019, besting the Mets by three games. However, Milwaukee then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to the Nationals, who went on to win the World Series). The Brewers had won 96 games in 2018 and made it to the NLCS, losing to the Dodgers in a seven-game series.

Minnesota opened the current season by winning 10 of its first 12 games but then lost FOUR in a row. The Twins snapped their four-game slide 4-2 at Milwaukee on Monday but fell 6-4 last night. At 11-7, the Twins lead the AL Central but three teams lurk within two games. Milwaukee hasn't been above .500 all season and currently sits 7-8, already 4 1/2 games behind the 11-3 Cubs. The teams play the rubber match of the series tonight, as Kenta Maeda (2-0, 2.65 ERA) squares off against Eric Lauer (0-1, 9.53 ERA).

Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He's proving his point, opening with back-to-back wins (1.64 ERA), before the bullpen collapsed in his last outing (Maeda left with a 5-3 lead but the bullpen coughed up three runs in the 8th and 9th).

Eric Lauer (0-1, 9.53 ERA) will be making his first career appearance against the Twins. Lauer struggled in his only start this season against Cincinnati on Friday night, allowing six ERs on five hits and three walks in an 8-3 loss. His only other appearance of 2020 was back on July 26, when he pitched 2.2 scoreless innings in a 9-1 loss to the Cubs. This is Lauer's third season in "the bigs" (1st two with San Diego) and in 55 appearances (53 starts), he's 14-18 with a 4.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and a .275 BAA. Minnesota's bats shouldn't have much trouble scoring off him and I sure like what I've seen of Maeda, so far!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

Cleveland welcomed the Cubs to Progressive Field last night, having won FIVE of its last six. Cleveland pitchers owned a major-league-low 2.04 ERA and hadn't given up more than five runs in any game this season, while opponents were hitting just .188 on the year.  Starter Adam Plutko was just fine (one ER in 4 IP)  but four relievers allows six ERs on seven hits in five inning. Meanwhile, Lester DOMINATED the Cleveland lineup (see above).

The teams complete a quick two-game series tonight, as Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 3.54 ERA) takes on Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 2.50 ERA). Hendricks has been a solid starter for the Cubs but so far, he seems to be following a similar pattern to last year. Hendricks owned a 2.04 ERA and .206 BAA at Wrigley but a 5.02 ERA and .290 BAA on the road. He's won both of his home starts in 2020 (1.13 ERA & .179 BAA) but in his lone road start, allowed six Ers in just 4.1 innings (12.46 ERA and .368 BAA),

Carlos Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 back on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self against the Royals. Carrasco also pitched reasonably well at Minnesota on Aug 1 but allowed three solo HRs (over six innings) in a 3-0 loss. He then pitched six scoreless innings (allowed just ONE hit) in Cleveland's 13-0 over Cincy last Thursday. Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him and I had him in his easy win over the Reds last Thursday and will 'go to the well' with him again, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator at 3:10 ET.

The pitching matchup for the rubber match of this series will be Luke Weaver (0-3, 12.19 ERA) and Antonio Senzatela (3-0, 2.65 ERA). Weaver pitched his first three seasons with the Cardinals, making 52 appearances (43 starts) while going 15-17, 4.79 ERA. The Cardinals traded Weaver to Arizona before the 2019 season and while Weaver appeared in just 12 games (all starts), he posted a 2.94 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 64.1 IP. So much for him "finding himself!' Weaver has not pitched past the 4th inning in ANY of his first three starts this season, going 0-3 with a 12.19 ERA, 2.13 WHIP and a .348 BAA (OUCH!). Weaver is 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in four games (including three starts) in his career against Colorado.

As for Senzatela, let me get "the bad stuff" out of the way. He is 2-5 in 11 career games (seven starts) against the Diamondbacks. He is 2-4 with a 6.25 ERA as a starter against Arizona. He entered this season 27-22 with a 5.33 ERA in his first three seasons with the Rockies but he's opened the current season 3-0 with a 1.18 WHIP and .227 BAA to go along with his solid 2.65 ERA.

Colorado leads all of MLB with a team BA of .277 and owns MLB's hottest hitter in Charlie Blackmon. He had three more hits Tuesday to extend his hitting streak to 15 games and leads the majors with a .500 average. Colorado's pitching has a rough go Monday and Tuesday but team 3.64 ERA ranks 6th-best in MLB, after last year's 5.56 ERA ranked 29th of 30 teams. The Rockies have won ALL five series they have played this season and need a "W" here to keep that streak intact. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

The AL West foes continue their three-game series tonight, as Mike Fiers (1-0, 5.63 ERA) squares off against Dylan Bundy (2-1, 2.08 ERA). Fiers faced the Angels back on July 26, allowing four ERs on seven hits in just four innings, but the A's won 6-4. He is 6-3 with a 4.72 ERA in14 starts against the Angels, but his teams are 10-4. Bundy has been the better pitcher in the early going of 2020. He was acquired from Baltimore in a trade last December and pitched a shutout ball into the seventh inning in his Angels debut, in a 4-1 victory over the Athletics back on July 25 in Oakland. He is coming off the best performance by an Angels starter so far this season, as Bundy threw a complete game, allowing one run on four hits (10-0 KW ratio) in a 6-1 victory at Seattle last Thursday. Bundy is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts against Oakland (teams are 4-1).

Yes, Bundy has the better current form but the A's are a MUCH better team than the Angels plus the bottom line is, Oakland usually wins when Fiers gets the start. Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 46 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 34-12, 74% in those contests! Good enough for me, especially at this 'juicy' price. The 6-11 team is a solid favorite over the 12-5 one!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET.

Taking the mound for Chicago is veteran lefty Jon Lester (1-0, 0.82 ERA). Cleveland was expected to start Mike Clevinger (1-1, 3.24 ERA) but like with Zach Plesac, he was sent home from Chicago for violating team protocols during the trip (he will have to undergo subsequent testing while under quarantine). Lester struggled with his consistency in 2019, going 13-10 and his 4.46 ERA was his highest since 2012. Lester is entering the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign and he's off to a strong start in his "contract year." He's looking for a THIRD consecutive strong outing, after allowing just one ER one run over 11 innings in his first two starts (0.55 WHIP and .103 BAA to go along with his 0.82 ERA!).

Cleveland pitchers own a major-league-low 2.04 ERA and haven't given up more than five runs in any game this season, while opponents are hitting just .188 on the year.  However, Plutko will be making his second start of the season, having thrown six innings of two-run ball against the White Sox back on July 28 (he also threw a scoreless inning in relief against the Cincinnati Reds last Thursday). Pluko began his major league career in 2016 (just two appearances) and takes the mound with just 42 appearances (33 starts) while owning  a 12-10 record and a 4.99 ERA. Don't see him being able to match Lester, who is 8-4 (3.06 ERA) in 19 career starts vs Cleveland (teams are 13-6).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET.

The Colorado Rockies went 71-91 in 2019, leaving them a whopping 35 games back of the NL West champion LA Dodgers. The Rockies return to Denver on Monday, off a 5-3 Sunday loss at Seattle. However, the Rockies had won the first two of their three-game set with the Mariners and have won ALL five series they have played this season.  Colorado is 11-4 and off to its best 15-game start since 2013! Arizona is off an 85-77 season (21 games back of LA) but had hopes of making the 2020 postseason, which has been expanded from 10 to 16 teams. So far, NOT so good. The D'backs opened the season losing three of four at San Diego and comes off losing two of three this past weekend against the Padres, again playing in San Diego. Arizona comes to Coors Field 6-10 and last in the NL West.

Before discussing the game's starting pitchers, a little about the teams. The Rockies lead all of MLB with a .261 BA and their pitching staff owns a team ERA of 2.84, which ranks 4th-best. When one considers Colorado's team ERA was 5.56 (29th of 30 teams in 2019), that's QUITE an improvement. In comparison, the D'backs are batting just .211 as a team (amazingly, SIX teams are actually hitting worse!) and Arizona's pitching staff sports a 5.48 ERA (29th of 30 teams)!

Arizona lefty Robbie Ray (1-2, 9.45 ERA) gets the nod tonight at Coors Field, opposed by Colorado's Jon Gray (0-1, 3.31 ERA). Ray has clearly struggled in his first three starts (1.95 WHIP to go along with his 9.45 ERA). He will make his 18th career start against Colorado, going 5-5 with a 5.20 ERA in his first 17 (team is 6-11). Gray also makes his fourth start of 2020 and has deserved much better than to be winless. Colorado's offense has been one of the best in the league but in Gray's three starts, the offense has scored just two runs in each contest, while he was in the game. 

That HAS to change! Opposing hitters are batting just .194 Gray and remember, Arizona is hitting .211 as a team in 2020. What's more, excluding Arizona's 14-run outburst against Houston back on August 5th, the D'backs have averaged a woeful 2.8 RPG in their other 15 games. The Rockies had scored four or more runs in 12 straight games before Sunday's 5-3 loss and my bet says gray gets the support he needs tonight to pick up his first win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The New York Mets finally won their first series of the 2020, taking the final two games of their three-game set with the surprising Miami Marlins. Miami didn't play from July 27 through August 3, after 18 players tested positive for the coronavirus but the the Marlins returned to the field on August 4 and won their first SIX games (reaching 7-1). They missed out on a chance to match the best nine-game start in franchise history on Saturday night, when the Mets hit three HRs in an 8-4 victory. The victory was just New York's THIRD, in a 10-game stretch. New York won again 4-2 on Sunday, as Jacob deGrom moved to 2-0 on the season. The Mets are 3-1 in his starts, with deGrom owning a 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .198 BAA.

The Washington Nationals visit Citi Filed to open a four-game series with the Mets on Monday. The defending champs are sure not playing like World Series champs, as the Nats have lost three straight games and were four innings from potentially getting swept by the crosstown Baltimore Orioles (for a 4th straight loss), when their Sunday game was suspended due to rain and a tarp issue (Washington trailed, 5-2, at the time). Nationals currently sit at 4-7, having lost three games due to the COVID-19 related issues of the Marlins

These teams just met in a two-game series in Washington last Tuesday and Wednesday, with the Nats winning 5-3 in the first contest and the Mets rebounding to take the next game, 3-1. Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of left-handers, as Washington's Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.00 ERA) takes on New York's Steven Matz (0-2, 5.65 ERA). It's a 're-hook' from last Tuesday's 5-3 Washington win. Corbin allowed three ERs on eight hits over 5.2 innings, while Matz allowed five ERs on seven hits over just three innings.

Corbin had a solid season for the Nats in 2019, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts (Washington was 21-12). However, he's just 3-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 15 career games (14 starts / teams are 6-8) against the Mets. Matz is now 1-6 (3.91 ERA) in 13 career starts vs Washington, although the Mets are a more respectable 6-7 in those starts. Matz was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last season but here's 'the skinny.' He was AWFUL away from home (3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but terrific at Citi Field (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA).

The Nationals look disinterested so far and I'm not ready to give up on the Mets, just yet. Matz is the play at Citi Field.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:08 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 893 wins left them EIGHT games behind the 101-61 Twins. Cleveland's 7-1 Saturday win in Chicago over the White Sox, gives the team FOUR wins in its last five games and a 9-7 record (Twins have opened 10-5). The White Sox began this season's 60-game schedule having NOT made the postseason since 2008 (just two winning seasons in that 11-year span). However, the White Sox are a MUCH better team this season and have opened 8-7 (beat Cleveland 2-0 on Friday).

The two AL Central foes meet in the rubber match of the series, tonight. ESPN was set to feature the Chicago Cubs at the St Louis Cardinals but that series was postponed due to the Cardinals' ongoing bout with positive COVID-19 tests. The bright lights of ESPN's "Sunday Night Baseball" will now feature Cleveland at Chicago, with the White Sox last appearing in the Sunday night slot back on May 12, 2013! The pitching matchup is a good one, as Cleveland's Shane Bieber (3-0, 0.83 ERA) squares off against Chicago's Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.17 ERA).

Bieber is looking to claim a FOURTH straight win. He enters Sunday with a major league best 35 strikeouts, the third-most in history through three starts. He has walked just THREE batters, while allowing only 12 hits over 21.2 innings (0.69 WHIP to go along with his 0.83 ERA and .160 BAA). Giolito had an 'ugly' 2020 debut, allowing seven ERs over just 3.2 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he has recovered from that rough outing on Opening Day, by holding Cleveland and Milwaukee to two runs on eight hits in 12 combined innings over his last two starts (1.50 ERA with 15 Ks).

Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season, going 14-9, 3.41 ERA (he made the last year's All Star team). He opened the 2020 season as Chicago's ace. However, he currently can't match Bieber and I'm not ready to put Chicago in the same class of Cleveland, as a team. The Indians take the rubber game, as Bieber moves to 4-0!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 1:10 ET.

The New York Yankees had a SEVEN-game winning streak (July 26-Aug 3) but will face the Rays on Sunday in the final contest of this four-game series, having lost FOUR of six. The Rays opened the season 4-1 (all games at home) but then lost FIVE in a row (all on the road). The Rays returned home and split two games with Boston and have now taken TWO of three to New York (loss came vs Gerrit Cole, who is 0-4).

The pitching matchup for the series finale will be New York's James Paxton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) and Tampa's Charlie Morton(1-1, 5.52 ERA). 2019 was Paxton's first with the Yankees and ended July just 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA. However, he then went 10-0 over his final 11 regular season starts (NYY were 11-0), posting a 1.05 ERA in five September starts. His 29 starts, 18 wins and 251 Ks were all career highs (held opponents to a .210 BA). Paxton was recovering from a back injury when MLB was shut down back in March but New York said he was fully recovered when play began in late-July. Then again, maybe not. He pitched just ONE inning in his season debut at Washington on July 25 (allowed five hits and three ERs) and in his second start (Aug 2 vs Boston), made it through just three innings while allowing five runs (three earned) on seven hits.

Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston in 2017, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (?194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694.[29]. However, Morton allowed six ERs (4 IP) in his first start of 2020 and was better in his second, allowing two ERs over five innings. He then looked more like himself this past Tuesday against Boston, when he allowed one run in 5.2 innings Tuesday. He gave up a HR to Mitch Moreland in the second inning and then retired nine of the last 10 hitters (Rays won, 5-1).

The Yanks got bad news on Saturday, as Giancarlo Stanton tweaked his hamstring on a slide at second base during New York's 5-3 loss in yesterday's second game of the doubleheader. Here's the rub. The Rays are at home this season, giving them a 22-5 record in their last 27 regular-season home games! Paxton is pitching on six days' rest but is he really healthy? He has yet to complete three innings in each of his first two starts. As for Morton, he is 2-0 with an 0.77 ERA in two starts against the Yankees at Tropicana Field, where New York has lost SIX of its last seven!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the SD Padres at 9:10 ET.

The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) will allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that still left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona does not expect to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs entered the season feeling as if a playoff berth was MORE than realistic. 

These two NL West foes opened the current season with the Padres winning THREE of four at Petco Park and the schedule has the two teams back in San Diego for a three-game series this weekend. Zach Davies retired the first 13 Arizona batters he faced last night and took a perfect game into the fifth before giving up consecutive one-out singles. The Padres would claim the victory 3-0, as they moved to 4-1 vs the D'backs this season, San Diego is 8-6 overall, 2 1/2 games back of the surprising Colorado Rockies. As for the D'backs, they are 5-9 (last in the NL West), with a record better than only the 3-11 Pirates in the NL. Not EXACTLY the start hoped for.

Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.63 ERA) gets the start Saturday night for Arizona, while Chris Paddack (2-0, 2.65 ERA) is set to make his fourth start of the season for San Diego. Kelly took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning at Texas on July 28 and he was 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA in five starts against San Diego in 2019 (D'backs were 3-2), including winning his MLB debut on April 1, allowing three runs in six innings of a 10-3 victory. The Padres are 2-1 in Paddack's first three starts of 2019, with both wins coming at home. That's NO surprise as in his one-plus seasons in the majors, Paddack has seen the Padres win

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the NY Yankees at 6:40 ET.

The NYY began the 60-game 2020 MLB season as strong favorites to capture the AL East (won 103 games in 2019) and win the AL pennant (Yanks were co-favorites with the Dodgers to win the World Series). The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games to finish seven games behind the Yankees in 2019 (earned a wild card spot) and were seen as a potent challenger to the Yankees in the AL East for the originally scheduled 162-game season Even when the 60-game season was announced, the Rays were still considered a formidable challenger to the Yankees. However, while the Yankees opened 8-1 and sit 9-3 as this four-game series with the Rays opens on Friday (DH scheduled for Saturday), Tampa Bay has lost SIX of seven since a 4-1 start (Rays are currently 5-7, FOUR games back).

Tampa Bay's pitching was an expected strength and the Rays own a 3.63 ERA (9th-best in MLB). However, Tampa Bay's offense has been a HUGE problem, as the Rays enter this series with a .211 team batting average, a .303 on-base percentage and have not scored more than five runs in any game since July 27 (that's an eight-game stretch).The Yankees have homered in a team-record 12 straight games to start the season and in preparation for this series, did not start Aaron Judge (.302 / 7 HRs / 17 RBI) and DJ LeMahieu (leads the AL with a .429 BA) in yesterday's game.

Taking the mound will be New York's Masahiro Tanaka (0-0, 3.38 ERA), who will make his second start since returning from a mild concussion sustained in a simulated game July 4. He will likely be on a pitch count after allowing two runs on four hits and throwing 51 pitches in 2.2 innings during Saturday's 5-2 win over Boston. Blake Snell (0-0, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for Tampa Bay. Snell has not thrown more than 53 pitches in either of his first two starts (Rays are 1-1 in his starts).

Snell won the Cy Young award in the AL in 2018 (21-5, 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP) but went just 6-8 in a 2019 season that saw injuries limit him to just 23 starts (he was 6-8, as his ERA climbed to 4.29 and his WHIP rose to 1.27). Who knows if Snell will ever regain his 2018 form? Meanwhile, Tanaka enters his seventh season for New York, going 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). He's 10-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career starts against Tampa Bay (Yanks are 13-5), while posting a 1.79 ERA in his last eight starts against the Rays. Meanwhile, Snell is 3-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 16 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 7-9). Yanks grab the win!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 7:15 ET.

The Houston Astros entered the current season off THREE consecutive 100-win seasons (101, 103 & 107) from 2017-19. They made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2019, winning it all in 2017.Of course, the team's sign-stealing story was MLB's 'hottest' topic as the season was expected to open in late-March but then COVID-19 pushed it to the 'back burner.' Houston is just 6-5 to open the current season, after losing 14-5 last night in Arizona. The Arizona bats 'came alive' in the fourth inning, as 14 batters came to plate with the D'backs scoring NINE runs. Arizona trailed 4-0 before that incredible outburst and looked headed for a SIXTH loss in seven games. However, the 4-8 D'backs can now win this three-game series by taking the rubber match tonight.

Former D'back Zack Greinke (55-29 with Arizona from 2016 to 2019) was slated to start the series finals but the Astros adjusted their starting rotation, as manager Dusty Baker has opted to go with rookie right-hander Brandon Bielak (2-0, 1.69 ERA). The Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.70 ERA) to the mound for Thursday's game. Bielak has already won TWICE in the majors, but both "Ws" have come in relief. This marks his first-ever ML start. Gallen started with Miami in 2019 (1-3, 2.72 ERA in seven starts) but then came to Arizona via a trade (2-3, 2.89 ERA in eight starts). He has yet to get a decision in two starts in 2020 but Arizona has won BOTH of his outings.

Don't expect another one inning, nine-run outburst in this one. I will happily go against a team after it has scored 14 runs on 16 hits the game before, especially this Arizona team, which was averaging 2.64 RPG over its first 11 games of 2020! BTW, MLB's best road team the last three seasons has been Houston, which has gone 157-86 (.646).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 Ohio is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins. The Indians opened the current season 4-2 at home and then took the first contest of a four-game series at Minnesota on Thursday, moving to 5-2. However, the Indians then lost the last three games of their series at Minnesota, getting outscored 10-2. Cleveland lost the first contest of its four-game, home-and-home series with Cincinnati Reds 3-2 on Monday but has rebounded to win the last two, 4-2 and 2-0 (Indians are currently 7-6). The Reds entered the current season off SIX consecutive losing seasons (averaging a modest 69.7 wins per season) but Cincinnati (at +230) was listed as co-favorites to win the NL Central with the Cubs. The team's starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looked VERY good on paper, plus the addition of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos was great news to Joey Votto and the Reds' offense (NL using the DH was also great news). However, the Reds were just 2-5 before winning both ends of Sunday's seven-inning doubleheader at Detroit. 5-7 Cincinnati hopes to split its four-game, "Battle 4 Ohio" with the Indians, by taking Thursday's finale

Taking the mound will be Luis Castillo (0-1, 4.50 ERA) for the Reds and Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 3.75 ERA) for the Indians. Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo's only two starts in 2020 have come against the Tigers. He gave up five runs and eight hits over six innings of a 7-2 loss to the Tigers back on July 25 but then allowed just one run while striking out 11 over six innings on July 31 against Detroit (note: Reds have lost both starts).

Carlos Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self against the Royals. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10 Ks! Carrasco also pitched reasonably well last Saturday at Minnesota but allowed three solo HRs (over six innings) in a 3-0 loss.

I had Minnesota in that one, backing Kenta Maeda. My closing comments in that one was that "Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time!" That "other time" is tonight! Carrasco may have a less-than-impressive 4.05 ERA in five starts against the Reds but he's 3-0 and the Indians are 5-0. That follows nicely with the fact that the Indians are 20-7 vs the Reds since the start of the 2015 season!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Sea Mariners at 9:40 ET.

The Angels won last night in Seattle, 5-3. Mike Trout returned to the LA lineup and homered in his first at-bat since the birth of his first child. The win makes the Angels 4-7 and they continue their three-game set in Seattle tonight, sporting a 4-7 record. Seattle opened its season 4-4 but last night's defeat was the team's FOURTH in a row, as the Mariners fell to 4-8.

The Angels will give right-hander Julio Teheran his first start of 2020,after missing the opening of the season because of a positive test for COVID-19. Teheran has spent his first NINE big-league season with the Braves, where he went 77-73 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He's made just one career start vs Seattle (0-1, 9.00 ERA). Seattle left-hander Marco Gonzales has gone 29-22 the last two seasons with Seattle, including 16-13 in 2019, when Seattle was just 68-94.

The 'key' here is that Gonzales is 6-1 with a 3.82 ERA in 13 career starts against the Angels, with Seattle going 9-4!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Underdog of the Month (IL) is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the 2020 season with six straight road games, going 3-3. The Brewers returned home for a three-game home series with the Cardinals but positive COVID-19 tests but some Cardinals saw that series postponed. A four-game, home-and-home series with the White Sox has so far seen the Brewers lose the first two games at Miller Park, The Brewers now head to Chicago for two games. The White Sox reside in the ASL Central with Last year's champs (Twins won 101 games) and the Indians, who had won three straight AL Central titles before the team's 93 wins last season left them EIGHT games behind the Twins. The White began this season's 60-game schedule having NOT made the postseason since 2008 (just two winning seasons in that 11-year span). However, the White Sox are a MUCH better team this season and have opened 7-4.

Adrian Houser (0-0, 1.80 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee and Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 3.38 ERA) is set to get the ball for Chicago. Houser made 35 appearances last season but just 18 starts (6-7, 3.72 ERA overall). He hopes (expects) to be part of this year's starting rotation and he looked good in his 2020 debut, allowing just one ER at Pittsburgh on July 27, settling for a no-decision that the Brewers won 6-5 (11 inn). Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young award in the AL during the 2015 season (20-8, 2.48 ERA) but over the next three seasons was a modest 35-28 (3.99 ERA) for an outstanding Houston team. He was a free agent in 2019 but couldn't find a taker until Atlanta signed him on June 7, 2019 him to a one year $13 million deal. Was he worth it? You make the call! He went 8-8 with a 3,75 ERA in 19 regular season starts (team was 10-9). Atlanta then lost BOTH of his postseason starts.

The Chicago White Sox signed Keuchel to a three-year $55.5 million contract on December 30, 2019. He's opened 2-0 (3,38 ERA) but I just don't buy Keuchel being a "team ace" these days. As for his record against the Brewers, he's 0-4 record with a 8.75 ERA in five career starts against them (teams are 1-4). The Brewers have not started well but entered this season having averaged 90.3 wins per season the last three years, making the postseason in each of the last two. Remember, while Chicago is improved, the White Sox have just TWO winning seasons (no playoff appearances) in their last 11 years. Also note that Chicago has gone exactly 6-14 in each of the last three seasons in IL play. Houser scattered one run and two hits in 4.2 innings in a 77-pitch exhibition tune-up two days before Opening Day at Guaranteed Rate Field (July 22). That's a good omen and I'm taking the underdog Brewers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Wednesday morning.

My 8* play is on the TB Rays at 6:40 ET.

The Rays opened the season 4-1 (all at home) and then lost FIVE in row, all away from home. However, with Austin Meadows back from the COVID-19 injury ( 2-for-4 with an RBI triple), the Rays beat the struggling Red Sox 5-1 last night. The Rays now look to complete a two-game sweep of the Red Sox, before hosting the New York Yankees in a pivotal four-game weekend series beginning Friday. Boston lost its FOURTH straight on Tuesday and sits at 3-8.

Martin Perez (1-1, 5.06 ERA) gets the nod for Boston and Ryan Yarbrough (0-1, 1.54 ERA) for Tampa Bay. Perez spent his first seven seasons with Texas, going 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his final year with the team (2018). He signed with Minnesota in 2019 and made 32 appearances (29 starts), posting a 10-7 record with a 5.12 ERA and owned MLB's highest WHIP among starters at 1.52. Boston signed him as a FA in December and he was thrust into the No. 2 role in Boston's tattered starting rotation due to injuries and trades. Yarbrough has been the Rays' most effective starter this season, although he took the loss in his last outing in Atlanta, despite holding the Braves to two runs on two hits over 6.1 innings in. Yarbrough is 3-1 with a 4.84 ERA lifetime in nine games (three starts / team is 2-1) against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Perez is an 'ugly' 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay (teams are 1-7). He is 1-3 with an 8.39 ERA in five games (four starts) at Tropicana Field.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET.

The White Sox were a dark horse pick by some in the AL Central. Chicago stumbled out of the gate 1-4 but after last night's 6-4 win at Milwaukee in the opener of a four-game, home-and-home set, the White Sox have now won FIVE in a row to reach 6-4. The 3-4 Brewers saw their weekend series with the Cards canceled due to positive COVID-19 tests of some St Louis players and last night was the team's first game since last Wednesday.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Chicago's Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.52 ERA) and Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 1.59 ERA). Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season, going 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA (made the All Star team). Giolito recorded just 11 outs while allowing SEVEN runs in an Opening Day loss to visiting Minnesota but rebounded last Wednesday at Cleveland, scattering four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in six shutout innings (White Sox won, 4-0). This marks his first appearance vs Milwaukee.

Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17 but one must acknowledge that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019! Woodruff has been sharp in two 2020 starts, allowing two ERs in five innings of a 3-0 loss to the Cubs, before pitching 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with 10 Ks in a 3-0 win vs Pittsburgh. He retired a career-best 17 in a row at one point against the Pirates.

Like Giolito, Woodruff has never faced his opponent (White Sox) but considering the Brewers have won 19 of Woodruff's 24 starts since 2019, one HAS to take note. Meanwhile, Giolito is 1-6 with a 6.96 ERA in 10 interleague starts. It's Woodruff over Giolito tonight in a BIG way!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET.

The 4-7 NY Mets snapped a five-game slide with a 7-2 win last night in Atlanta, as Jacob deGrom pitched six innings (two ERs / 10 Ks) in earning his first win of 2020. New York visits the nation's capital tonight to open a two-game series with Nationals, who are 3-4 and have waited FIVE days to return to action. The Nationals haven't played since last Thursday, when they beat the Toronto Blue Jays 6-4. Washington's weekend series against the Miami Marlins was postponed after 18 uniformed members of the Marlins tested positive for the coronavirus. Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of left-handers, as New York's Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18 ERA) squares off against Washington's Patrick Corbin (0-0, 1.42 ERA). Here's the 'skinny' on Matz. He was terrific at Citi Field last season, going 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA but  AWFUL away from home, going 3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA. He's also just 1-5 (3.41 ERA) in 12 career starts vs Washington, although the Mets are a more respectable 6-6 in those starts. Corbin didn't factor into the decision in his season debut July 26, when he allowed just one run in 6.1 innings in the Nationals' 3-2 loss to the Yankees. Corbin had a solid season for the Nats in 2019, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts (Washington was 21-12). He's just 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 career games (13 starts / teams are 5-8) against the Mets.  Washington had an intrasquad scrimmage Saturday and more good news came in the fact that the Nats welcomed back Juan Soto. His positive coronavirus test was announced hours before the Opening Day game against the New York Yankees on July 23. Soto said he never displayed any symptoms and believed his result may have been a false positive. He was allowed to return after testing negative twice last week, following clearance from the D.C. Department of Health. Soto (21-years-old) batted .282 in the regular season in 2019, adding 34 HRs and 110 RBI. He then hit five HRs with 14 RBI in the playoffs, while helping the Nationals to their first championship in franchise history. His return is a BIG deal, with Anthony Rendon leaving in FA for the Angels. Corbin gives Washington a solid effort, while Matz once again struggles away from home. New York's winning streak ends at ONE! Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 6:40 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are still looking to establish their identity as they prepare to open a two-game series Tuesday at St Petersburg, Fl. Boston began the 2020 by losing two of three at Fenway to the Orioles (54-108) and then split a four-games series with the Mets, followed by losing all three at Yankee Stadium. Boston heads to South Florida just 3-7, already leaving them 5 1/2 games back of the MLB-best 8-1 Yankees. The Rays opened 4-1 but have promptly lost FIVE in a row, including getting swept in a three-game series at the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend (see above). 

Boston's Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.45 ERA) is set to take the mound opposite Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton (0-1, 8.00 ERA). Boston starters own a league-worst 6.69 ERA but Eovaldi has been the lone bright spot, as the Red Sox have won both of his 2020 starts. Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston in 2017, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694.[29]. However, Morton allowed six ERs (4 IP) in his first start of 2020 but was better in his second, allowing two ERs over five innings. 

Eovaldi owns a 2-4 record with a 5.45 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4 ) against the Rays, while Morton is 5-1 (4.40 ERA) in 11 career starts vs Boston (teams are 8-3). I noted Boston's overall pitching woes at the top but that's hardly Boston's only issue! The Red Sox own a .210 team BA with new additions Manuel Margot (3-for-30), Hunter Renfroe (6-for-33) and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (6-for-30) among those really struggling. Morton gets his first win of 2020 in this one. Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins. The Indians opened the current season 4-2 at home and then took the first contest of a four-game series at Minnesota on Thursday, moving to 5-2. However, the Indians then lost the last three games of their series at Minnesota, getting outscored 10-2. Cleveland now opens a four-game, home-and-home series with Cincinnati Reds, with the first two contests being played in Cincinnati.

The Reds entered the current season off SIX consecutive losing seasons, averaging a modest 69.7 wins per season. However, Cincinnati (at +230) was listed as co-favorites with the Cubs in the NL Central. The team's starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looked VERY good on paper, plus the addition of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos was great news to Joey Votto and the Reds' offense (NL using the DH was also great news). However, the Reds opened 1-4 and were just 2-5 before winning both ends of Sunday's seven-inning doubleheader at Detroit.

Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the start for Cleveland, while Cincinnati will counter with Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.71 ERA). Plesac made 21 starts as a rookie, going 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA (Indians went 13-8 in his starts). He had a strong season debut (last Wednesday), allowing three hits with 11 Ks without a walk over eight scoreless innings, although the Indians fell 4-0 to the Chicago White Sox when they scored four runs in the top of the 9th. Plesac has faced the Reds just once, allowing four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings of that 7-2 loss in Cleveland last season

Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yanks going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray has allowed just ONE earned run, four hits and three walks while striking out 20 over 12.2 innings in beating Detroit and the Chicago Cubs to open 2020. Gray is a modest 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Indians (teams are 5-5).

Recent history favors the Indians, as they've beaten the Reds in SIX straight, as well as winning 10 of their last 11 in Cincinnati. What's more, the Indians have averaged 7.1 RPG and hit 23 HRs over that 11-game span. However, that was THEN and this is NOW! Cleveland arrives in Cincinnati having lost FOUR of five, while scoring a grand total of just FOUR runs! Cleveland is batting only .147 as a team in that five-game span, going 2-17 (.105) with RISP. The Cleveland bats now face Sonny Gray (see above), who after allowing just one hit and striking out 11 batters in last Wednesday's win over the Cubs, has made 35 straight starts while allowing six or fewer hits!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Oak A's at 9:10 ET.

Oakland's lost THREE in a row and will send Mike Fiers (0=0, 9.00 ERA) to the mound while the Mariners, winner of THREE straight, counter with Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 12.27 ERA). Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 44 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 32-12 in those contests! Kikuchi's rookie season did not go well, as he made 32 starts and went 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. His 2020 debut also went poorly, as he allowed five ERs in just 3.2 innings vs the Astros, although Seattle came back to earn a 7-6 win.

The A's are the MUCH better team and Fiers has been a HUGE moneymaker for the A's since coming to the team (see above). Oakland snaps its three-game slide and wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins (first 100-win season for the Twins since 1965). The two AL Central rivals continue their four-game series in Minnesota on Saturday, after the Indians won 2-0 on Thursday, before the Twins rebounded with a 4-1 win last night.

The 5-3 Indians will send Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound, while the 5-2 Twins counter with Kenta Maeda (1-0, 3.60 ERA). Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2  this past Sunday, as Carrasco won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self in Sunday's victory. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10m Ks!

Maeda has something to prove in 2020 as well, although it's hard to match the dramatic return of Carrasco. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief during last year's run to the World Series. It should be noted that only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He made a solid impression in his Twins debut last Sunday at Chicago, when he struck out six White Sox hitters and allowed two runs in five innings during a 14-2 victory.

Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. Shutting down the Royals, one of four MLB teams to lose 100-plus games in 2019 is one thing, shutting down the Twins is another. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939) in 2019, while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. Carrasco is 7-10 with a 4.10 ERA in 26 career appearances (21 starts / team is 8-13) against Minnesota, including 4-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 appearances and 10 starts at Target Field. Maeda faces the Indians for the first time in his career and makes his Target Field debut on Saturday night. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET.

Taking the mound in the opener of this three-game series will be San Diego's Garrett Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Colorado's Jon Gray (0-0, 1.93 ERA). Richards spent his first eight seasons with the Los Angeles Angels (45-39 with a 3.54 ERA over 170 appearances, including 115 starts), before San Diego signed him to a two-year deal before the 2019 season. It's more than fair to call the move a risk for the Padres, as Richards' 2018 season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. In fact, He didn't pitch until late in 2019, making three starts (0-1 with a ERA / team was 1-2). Richards pitched five shutout innings, allowing just one hit and three walks with six strikeouts in San Diego's 4-3 loss to Arizona last Sunday. "It's just fun,'' Richards told FS San Diego. "I’m having fun playing baseball again. It’s not rehab anymore. It feels good to be back out there and pitching pain-free.” Richards will be facing Colorado for the first time in his career. 

In contrast, Gray is VERY familiar with the Padres, as he's 10-4 with a 2.97 ERA. He has 139 strikeouts in 115.1 innings covering 20 games (19 starts). Unlike most Colorado pitchers, Gray is one of the few who has thrived in the thin air of Coors Field. He was 6-2, with a 3.46 ERA in 13 games (12 starts / Rockies went 8-4) last season. Colorado has been the worst road team in MLB since 2010 but dominated Texas and Oakland with a National League-best 1.84 ERA (Note: Colorado's team ERA was an NL-worst 5.56 mark last season, as only Baltimore (5.59) had a higher ERA in all of MLB.

Yes, there won't be any fans in the stands for Colorado's home opener BUT the Rockies have won FOUR consecutive season series vs the Padres, including 24-13 at Coors Field during that span. Colorado has won FOUR straight since losing its season-opener 1-0 at Texas, outscoring opponents 21-9. Make it FIVE straight wins, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET.

Tampa Bay took both games against the Braves at Tropicana Field (Mon & Tue) but as the teams switched venues to SunTrust Park on Wednesday, the Braves beat the Rays 7-4.  Atlanta's All-Star 1B Freddie Freeman, who entered Wednesday’s home opener 2-for-14 on the season, went 4-for-5 with a double, HR, and three RBI. The loss dropped the Rays to 4-2, while the Braves evened their record at 3-3 with the win.

The teams play the final contest of this four-game set on Thursday, as Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Max Fried (0-0, 3.60 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta. Yarbrough made 28 appearances last season (14 starts), going 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He threw 5.1 scoreless innings last Saturday against Toronto, as the Rays won 4-1 (Yarbrough settled for a no-decision). He's now made NINE consecutive stars without earning a win (Rays are 5-4 in those games). Fried went 17-6 in 2019 (first season as a full-time starter), as he finished second in the NL with 17 wins. His first outing of 2016 was last Saturday at the Mets, when he surrendered two runs on two hits with two walks and five strikeouts in five innings (note: he didn't surrender a hit until the fifth inning and the Braves won, 5-3).

Most feel as if the Rays have one of MLB's best bullpens and the team's relievers had pitched to a 2.70 ERA across 26.2 innings in the first five games of 2020, but four Tampa relievers allowed  five runs (four earned) on six hits in just three innings last night.Fried finished 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 home starts in 2019 (Braves were 11-4), and after the All-Star break pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while going 8-2 across 13 appearances (12 starts / Braves were 10-2). Fried gives Atlanta the edge here at home, where the Braves went 50-31 in 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 7:07 ET.

The Red Sox vie for a split of a four-game, home-and-home set at the Mets on Thursday night, sending Martín Pérez (0-1, 7.20 ERA) to the mound to face New York's Steven Matz (0-0, 1.50 ERA). Perez spent his first seven seasons with Texas, going 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his final year with the team (2018). He signed with Minnesota in 2019 and made 32 appearances (29 starts), posting a 10-7 record with a 5.12 ERA and owned MLB's highest WHIP among starters at 1.52. Boston signed him as a FA in December and he was thrust  into the No. 2 role in Boston's tattered starting rotation due to injuries and trades, Should it have been a surprise that he struggled his Boston debut? He allowed five runs (four earned) and six hits over five innings to take the loss in Boston's 7-2 Saturday loss to the Orioles.

In contrast, Matz was superb in his season debut against Atlanta last Saturday, although he saw his chance for a win disappear when the bullpen could not hold a one-run lead in the ninth inning. Matz worked six strong innings, allowing only one run on two hits while striking out seven. Matz was awful away from home last season (3-8, 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but was terrific at Citi Field, going 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA.

The Red Sox won last night but NOT because of its pitching staff, as Boston pitchers allowed 15 hits. The Red Sox 'survived' because the Mets went 3-of-14 with RISP, while leaving 11 men on base. The New York bats should 'LOVE' facing Perez and as noted above, Matz is tough to beat at Citi Field.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Cubs were listed as favorites to win the NL Central (+230) with their longtime rivals the Cards at (+240). However, the Reds (at +230) were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs, despite the fact that Cincinnati last made the postseason back in 2013, having averaged a paltry 69.7 wins per season over that six-year playoff drought. Both teams won their respective season openers but while Chicago sits at 4-1 (in a four-way tie for MLB's best record with Cleveland, San Diego and Tampa Bay), Cincinnati enters tonight's contest on a FOUR-game slide. The Cubs have taken the first two contests of this four-games series, 8-7 (Mon) and 8-5 (Tue).

This contest will be the third of a four-game set, featuring Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Sonny Gray (1-0, 1.50 ERA) squaring off on the mound. Hendricks has not been nearly the pitcher the last three years that he was in 2016, when he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13), won 16 games and started Game 7 of the World Series. He's won a modest 32 games from 2017-19, including 11 last season when he lost 10 games and posted a 3.46 ERA. However, Hendricks sparkled in his 2020 debut, allowing three hits and striking out nine without a walk during a complete-game effort in the Cubs' 3-0 victory over Milwaukee on Friday. Hendricks became the first Cubs pitcher to throw a nine-inning shutout on Opening Day since the 'legendary' Bill Bonham accomplished that feat back in 1974.

Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yanks (going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray allowed one run on three hits with nine strikeouts over six innings in Cincy's Opening Day 7-1 win over the Tigers.

Hendricks had plenty of trouble with Cincinnati last season, going 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts (Cubs were 1-3), while Gray was 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA against Chicago over five starts (Reds were 4-1) last year with 37 strikeouts in 30 innings! Reds snap their four-game slide, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tex Rangers at 4:05 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona is not expected to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs have to feel like a playoff berth is MORE than realistic. The D'backs opened the season by losing THREE of four at San Diego but after a 4-1 win last night in Texas, have a chance to wrap up their season-opening six-game road trip with a .500 record.

The D-backs scored three unearned runs with two outs in the first inning and went on to beat the Rangers 4-1 on Tuesday. Texas opened its season with a 1-0 win over Colorado but has since lost THREE in a row. The offensively-challenged Ranger managed only three hits Tuesday and have scored just SIX runs in their first four contests. Texas is batting just .174 as a team, including 5-22 (.227) with RISP while leaving 25 runners on base.

Veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) gets the ball in the series finale for the Diamondbacks and the Rangers will counter with righty Lance Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants, before signing a five-year, $85 million free agent contract with the Diamondbacks in December. He hardly needs an introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner completed five scoreless innings in his club debut Friday before surrendering three runs and retiring just two batters in the sixth to take the loss.

Lance Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. He'll be counted on heavily again in 2020's 60-game season, as after Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA), no other Texas pitcher won more than SEVEN games. Lynn made his first-ever Opening Day start last Friday and was outstanding. He held Colorado to two hits over six scoreless innings with nine Ks (Rangers won 1-0).

Lynn went 10-1 at home last season and is 6-1 (3.38 ERA) in 11 career starts vs the D'backs (teams are 8-3). I had Lynn last Friday and will back him again, here. Bumgarner pitched well in his first start but then imploded (see above). I don't expect much from Texas in 2020 but the team's bats are overdue to break out. This is the first time in club history that the Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in each of the first four games of the season. That changes RIGHT HERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (IL) is on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET.

The NL Central race figures to be a 'sprint to the finish line' between the Brewers, Cards, Cubs and Reds in this 60-game season. St Louis finished either 1st or 2nd in the division over an eight-year span from 2009-16, before falling to back-to-back 3rd-place finishes in 2017 and '18. The Cards rebounded in 2019 to capture the NL Central (91-71) and reached the NLCS where they were swept by the red-hot Nationals. Minnesota did not reach the postseason over a six-year span (2011-16), going a woeful 59-103 in 2016. However, the Twins were a wild card team in 2017 (85-77). Minnesota slumped to 78-84 in 2018 but in 2019 went 101-61, earning the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!). Both teams have started 2-1 in 2020 and the Cards open a seven-game road trip Tuesday night in Minnesota The contest will serve as the Twins' home opener, as Minnesota begins an eight-game homestand. The Twins put up 27 runs in taking two of their first three games, while the Cards beat the pathetic Pirates Friday and Saturday, but missed out on a chance to sweep Pittsburgh Pirates with a 5-1 loss on Sunday.

Tuesday's pitching matchup features Carlos Martinez (4-2, 3.17 ERA in 2019) and Homer Bailey (13-9, 4.57 in 2019 with KC & Oak). Martinez posted a 42-27 record with a 3.24 ERA in 94 games (92 starts) from 2015 to 2017 but dealt with shoulder discomfort in 2018 (33 appearances but just 18 starts in going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA). He last started a game on July 30, 2018, before going on the injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. He spent the rest of the 2018 season, as well as the entire 2019 campaign, in the bullpen to limit the wear and tear on the shoulder. He made 48 appearances in 2019 (zero starts) with 24 saves.

Bailey made 31 starts while splitting the season between Kansas City and Oakland in 2019, marking his most starts since making 32 for the Cincinnati Reds in 2013. His 2019 numbers were not all that impressive but when one takes into consideration that he was coming off a 1-14 record with a 6.09 ERA in 2018 with Cincinnati, his 2019 season could sure be seen as a "bounce-back" season, Clearly, the Twins viewed it as such, signing him to a one-year, $7 million deal in the offseason. 

Minnesota has a 'scary-good' lineup but by all reports, Martinez earned a spot in the rotation with a strong showing in summer camp. He had a procedure done on his right shoulder after the 2019 season and then went on an offseason conditioning regimen focused on regaining a starting role. He was rewarded with the No. 5 spot in the rotation after allowing two hits and one run in four innings in a 6-3 exhibition victory over Kansas City last Wednesday. As for Bailey, a stint in the AL was good to him but a closer look at his 2019 season reveals that he posted a 5.55 ERA in five starts against NL opponents in 2019, including getting ripped for five runs on four hits (including two HRs) over just 1.2 innings at St. Louis on May 22. That effort should NOT come as a surprise, as the Cards have been "too much to handle" for Bailey in his career, as he's gone 6-16 with a 5.80 ERA over 28 lifetime starts against St Louis (team record is even worse, at 6-22). HUGE "pitching edge" here for the Cards.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 6:05 ET.

The series continues tonight as Tanner Roark (10-10, 4.35 ERA in 2019) squares off against Austin Voth (2-1, 3.30 in 2019). Roark spent his first six seasons in Washington before being traded prior to the 2019 season. He split last year between Cincinnati and Oakland while reaching double digits in victories for the FOURTH time in the last six seasons. He faced the Nationals once in 2019 and was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs over six innings (6.00 ERA). Voth had two stints in the majors last season and put together an impressive September. He posted a 2.35 ERA in five September outings (four starts), finishing the season by holding opponents to a .213 BAA. He has never faced the Blue Jays.

The Nats are looking to reverse a stumbling 1-3 start and the team needs to hit better "when in counts." There was no shame in getting shut down by Cole (last Thursday) but after a 9-2 victory over the Yankees (Sat) in their only win so far, the Nats have gone an abysmal 3-16 (.188) with RISP in back-to-back losses, stranding 17 men on base! The Nats should be eager to face former teammate Roark and as for Voth, I expect a solid effort. He held opponents to a .198 BAA at home.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 6:40 ET.

The Cubs entered last season off FOUR consecutive playoff appearances in which the team averaged 96.8 wins per season (famously won the World Series in 2016). Chicago looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The NL Central 2020 race shaped up as the most wide-open division in MLB (not counting Pittsburgh, naturally), with the Cubs listed at +230 to win the division, the Cards at +240 and Brewers at +350. That trio could be considered "the usual subjects." However, the Reds (at +230) were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs, despite the fact that Cincinnati last made the postseason back in 2013,  having averaged a paltry 69.7 wins per season over that six-year playoff drought.

Monday's pitching matchup features two lefties, veteran Jon Lester of the Cubs (13-10, 4.46 ERA in 2019) and Wade Miley (14-6, 3.98 in 2019 for the Astros) for the Reds. Chicago is hoping that Lester can follow in the footsteps of Kyle Hendricks on Friday and Tyler Chatwood from Sunday, as that duo combined to allow just ONE run over 15 innings in the Cubs' two victories. Lester struggled with his consistency in 2019 while posting his highest ERA since 2012 (see above) and is entering the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign,

Miley won 16 games with Arizona back in 2012 (his first full season in the majors) and much was expected of him. However, little went right for him until he made the most out of pitching for Houston in 2019, going 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA over 33 starts (Houston went in those starts). He turned his 2019 campaign with the Astros into a two-year, $15 million deal with the Reds and makes his first start for his new team, here.

Nick Castellanos hit .321 with 16 HRs, 21 doubles and 36 RBI over 51 games after being dealt to the Cubs last season and turned that into a four-year, $64 million deal from the Reds. He was fairly 'quiet' vs the Tigers (3 for 10 with no HRs and one RBI) but of more concern to Cincy is that Cincinnati's other key offseason pickup, Mike Moustakas (4-for-8 with a HR and four RBI in his first two games as a Red), was placed on the injured list Sunday after waking up ill. It's uncertain if he tested positive for COVID-19 (note: CF Nick Senzel was also held out of Sunday's game?). The 36-year-old Lester has won 190 career games and made at least 31 starts in 12 consecutive seasons. He struggled vs the Reds last season (0-1 with a 4.02 ERA in three starts / team was 1-2) but in 19 career starts vs Cincy, his teams have gone 15-4! "He's prepped and locked in when he steps on the mound," first-year Cubs manager David Ross told the club's official website and my bet is on the vet! Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Was Nationals at 6:05 ET.

The Washington Nationals won the franchise's first-ever World Series in 2019 but their title defense is off to a slow start after dropping two of three to American League favorites the New York Yankees. Washington's Achilles heel last season was the bullpen and the relief corps let the team down in the series finale on Sunday, when starter Patrick Corbin exited with a 2-1 lead after 6.1 innings, only to watch Will Harris and Sean Doolittle each allow a run en route to a 3-2 loss. The Nationals lost Juan Soto (.282 / 34 HRs / 110 RBI) before the season opened (positive COVID-19 test) but more importantly, they miss Anthony Rendon (.319 / 34 HRs / 126 RBI) in the middle of the lineup after the MVP candidate left for the LA Angels via free agency.

The Nationals host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday in the opener of four straight in Washington, with the Blue Jays serving as the home team in the last two contests. The Blue Jays can't play their home games in Canada and are currently waiting as Buffalo's Sahlen Field is getting MLB-ready. The team announced on Sunday that the Blue Jays' first game in Buffalo won't be until August 11 against Miami. Toronto opened the season by beating the TB Rays 6-4 on Friday but followed with back-to-back losses Saturday and Sunday (Rays won each game in their last at-bat).

Monday's pitching matchup features Toronto's Trent Thornton (6-9, 4.84 ERA in 2019) and Washington's Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 in 2019). Thornton was a rookie last season and made 32 appearances, including 29 starts. He was held to an innings limit late in the season but should be a regular starter in this year's 60-game season. Sanchez is making his first appearance since the Word Series and is looking to continue a late-career resurgence that saw him combine for a 3.39 ERA over 55 games in 2018 and 2019.

One always has to be somewhat worried about Washington's bullpen but as noted above, Toronto's bullpen allowed Tampa Bay to win Saturday and Sunday in its last at-bat. Toronto's bullpen allowed eight ERs over 8.2 innings (8.31 ERA) over the weekend vs the Rays. Closer Ken Giles faltered after getting two outs in the ninth on Sunday (then allowed two runs, sending the game to extra-innings) and in the process, injured his elbow. He will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his injury. I'm backing the rejuvenated vet Sanchez in this one, as the Nats win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the  Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET.

The Houston Astros are expected to win the AL West but the Angels and A's may have "other ideas." Both teams believe that they can make a run at Houston and with the expanded playoffs, BOTH teams are legitimate wild card contenders. Oakland won Friday night's opener 7-3 in dramatic fashion, as Olson hit a game-winning grand slam in the 10th inning. The Angels bounced back Saturday, winning 4-1 win behind a solid start from newcomer Dylan Bundy (6.1 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER / 7-0 KW ratio).

The rubber match of the series is Sunday, as Shohei Ohtani (DNP in 2019) takes on Mike Fiers (15-4, 3.90 ERA in 2019). Ohtani, the two-way phenom from Japan, was 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts for the Angels in 2018 before serving exclusively as a designated hitter (and pinch hitter) last year following Tommy John surgery. He served as the Angels' DH on Friday night (1-for-5). It's expected that he will pitch once a week - ideally each Sunday - and will not be in the lineup the days before or after each outing (he sat out Saturday). Ohtani will be returning to the scene of his first career start on April 1, 2018, when he defeated the Athletics with six solid innings. He then struck out a career-high 12 Oakland hitters in a rematch one week later at home (2-0, 2.08 ERA).

Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 43 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 31-12 in those contests! Oakland lost Saturday to LA but takes the field having won EIGHT of its last 10 home games vs the Angels. That should NOT be a surprise, as while the A's have gone 102-60 at home in 2018 and 2019, the Angels are 72-90 away from Anaheim in that span. This marks Ohtani's first start since September of 2018, while Fiers is 13-3 in his career at Oakland Coliseum and went 3-0 (3.04 ERA) in four starts against the Angels in 2019 (Oakland won all four games). Oakland, behind Fiers, is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span).

The two NL Central rivals have split the first two games of this three-game set, with the Cubs winning 3-0 on Friday night (Ross allowed Hendricks to stay in and get his CG shutout win!) and the Brewers rebounding with an 8-3 win on Saturday afternoon. Sunday's pitching matchup features Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (7-3, 5.29 ERA in 2019) and Chicago's Tyler Chatwood (5-3, 3.76 in 2019). Peralta worked primarily a starter as a rookie in 2018 (14 of 16 appearances were starts), but worked mainly out of the bullpen last season, making 31 of his 39 appearances in relief. Chatwood has been a starter for much of his career but after making 20 starts for Chicago in 2018, he made 33 of his 38 appearances out of the bullpen in 2019. This will be Peralta's first career start against the Cubs. He has faced Chicago three times in relief, going 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA. In contrast, Chatwood is 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA In 12 career games (six starts) against Milwaukee.

The Brewers have had trouble mustering offense at Wrigley Field since the start of the 2018 season, failing to produce more than two runs in 13 of 20 visits. The Brewers finally snapped out of that funk in Saturday's 8-3 rout but note that Chatwood was particularly strong against the Brewers in 2019, limiting them to two runs in 14.1  innings for a 1.26 ERA. let's also not forget that the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL (51-30) in 2019. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry 

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 2:10 ET.

Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The White Sox the White Sox scored a pathetic paltry 708 runs, the third-worst number in the AL behind division rivals Detroit and Kansas City. Chicago finished the season 72-89, 28.5 games back of the Twins. It represented the team's NINTH losing season in the 11 years since the White Sox last made the postseason (2008).  However, only the Astros and Yankees had a higher difference in divisional win percentage and non-divisional win percentage than the White Sox. With division games (40 of 60) accounting for two-thirds of the 2020 season, the White Sox could be much more dangerous than last season's record indicates. The White Sox added key veterans like catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel in the off-season, to go along with a budding young core featuring reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson (.335).

The AL Central foes have split the first two contests of this three-game series. The Twins won 10-5 on Friday, before the White Sox 'returned the favor' with a 10-3 victory on Saturday. The White Sox beat the Twins at their own game on Saturday, including FIVE home runs (note: Chicago hit five HRs in a game only ONCE in 2019. Sunday's rubber match will feature Kenta Maeda (10-8, 4.04 ERA in 2019 with the Dodgers) of Minnesota going up against Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez (10-15, 5.38 in 2019). 

Maeda has solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Lopez has made at least 32 starts in each of the last two seasons for the White Sox but his ERA went from 3.91 in 2018 to 5.38 last season. He allowed 203 hits in 184 IP, while allowing WAY to many HRs (35).

It can't be good news for Chicago that Lopez lost all three of his starts against Minnesota in 2019, posting a 9.60 ERA while allowing five HRs and 20 runs over 15 innings. He is now 1-4 with a 5.71 ERA in seven career starts (team is 2-5) against the Twins, allowing EIGHT home runs in 41 innings (remember, Minnesota hit a MLB record 307 HRs in 2019!). Maeda will be making his second career start against the White Sox, having allowed one run on five hits over five innings in a July 19, 2017 road start that the Dodgers won, 9-1. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune this week that he prefers a starting role. He's gets his first chance here and in Lopez, he may just have the 'perfect' opposing starter!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET.

Taking the mound on Saturday afternoon will be Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams (7-9, 5.38 ERA in 2019) the Cards' Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA in 2019). Williams had a surprising 2018 (14-10 with a 3.11 ERA that ranked 7th-best in the NL) but he struggled with a right strain injury in 2019, as his ERA jumped more than TWO runs (see above). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown.

Wiliams slumped last season but he was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals. Then again, he is 4-4 with a 5.19 ERA in 14 career appearances against St. Louis, including 11 starts (team is 4-7). Wainwright was 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates in 2019 (Cards were 4-1), which comes as no surprise. He is 18-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 44 career games against the Pirates, including 38 starts (Cards are 26-12). Pittsburgh tied for the National League lead in team batting average last season (.265) but finished 11th in runs (758). Wainwright and St Louis is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

My 9* Pitching Mismatch (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year theTwins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The White Sox the White Sox scored a pathetic paltry 708 runs, the third-worst number in the AL behind division rivals Detroit and Kansas City. Chicago finished the season 72-89, 28.5 games back of the Twins. It represented the team's NINTH losing season in the 11 years since the White Sox last made the postseason (2008). However, only the Astros and Yankees had a higher difference in divisional win percentage and non-divisional win percentage than the White Sox. With division games (40 of 60) accounting for two-thirds of the 2020 season, the White Sox could be much more dangerous than last season's record indicates. The White Sox added key veterans like catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel in the off-season, to go along with a budding young core featuring reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson (.335).

Getting to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Juan Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA in 2019) for the Twins and Lucas Giolito (14-9, 3.41 ERA in 2019) for the White Sox. Berrios matched his career-high win total en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season (see above), joining Berrios on the AL All-Star team. Giolito opens the 2020 season as Chicago's ace.

While I acknowledge Giolito's massive improvement from 2018 to 2019, Berrios continued his domination of the White Sox last season, winning four of five decisions to boost his lifetime numbers against them to 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA (Twins are 12-2 in his 14 starts vs Chicago). Add to that the fact that the Twins owned a 50-26 record within the division last season (including a 13-6 mark against the White Sox) and the play is to back Berrios and the Twins in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The official opening of Globe Life Field was scheduled for March 31 against the LA Angels. However, COVID-19 had other plans. The Texas Rangers play their first regular-season game at their new ballpark in Arlington (cost of $1.2 billion) against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, Texas is coming off a 78-84 season (29 games out of first-place), while Colorado went 71-91 in 2019, 35 games back of the Dodgers. It seems like 'light years' ago but it was actually 2010 and 2011 when Texas played in back-to-back World Series (lost San Francisco in 2010 and St Louis in 2010). As for the Rockies, they have played in the postseason just five times in their 27-year history, reaching the World Series just once (2007 loss to the Red Sox).

Tonight's pitching matchup features Colorado's German Marquez (12-5, 4.76 ERA in 2019) and Lance Lynn (16-11, 3.67 ERA in 2019) forTexas. Marquez had his 2019 season cut short when he was shut down last August with inflammation in his pitching arm. Marquez leads a young rotation and will make his first Opening Day. He has never faced Texas and is 38-24 with a 4.32 ERA in 96 career games (93 starts). Similar to most Colorado starters, his road ERA is 3.72 ERA, while it's 5.01 at Coors Field (note: he was 7-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 road starts last season).

Lance Lynn is also making his first start on Opening Day. He was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and waas flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and responded by winning a team-high 16 games. He'll be counted on heavily again in 2020's 60-game season, as after Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA), no other Texas pitcher won more than SEVEN games.

Colorado has typically been a poor road team (was 28-53 in 2019) and while Texas struggled on the road as well I(33-48), the Rangers were 45-36 at home last season. Globe Life Field's 40,300 seats will be devoid of fans tonight (the only cheering will come from piped-in crowd noise) but behind Lynn, I expect the Rangers to win their 'home opener!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span).

Taking the mound will be Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA in 2019) for Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks (11-10, 3.46 ERA in 2019) for Chicago. Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including that wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019.

 It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks will make his first Opening Day start in this one, as will Woodruff (note: Woodruff continues the trend of the Brewers having had a different Opening Day starter in each of the past six years). 

Woodruff has yet to beat the Cubs in five appearances (three starts), posting a 6.75 ERA (his ERA is 7.10 in those three starts). Meanwhile, the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL at 51-30 and Hendricks was superb at Wrigley Field in 2019, posting a 2.04 ERA and .206 batting average in 14 starts. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* World Series Game 7 Decider is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

Houston lost Games 1 and 2 at home but the team's bats 'woke up' in Washington, scoring 19 runs in winning all THREE games played in D.C. Meanwhile, Washington hitters disappeared, scoring just ONE in each home contest. In Games 3 and 4, the Nats were an abysmal 1-19 with RISP and left 21 men on base. The big story of Game 5 was Scherzer's late scratch but that didn't explain Washington getting just FOUR hits (lone run came on a Soto HR) in Game 5 or the team going a combined 8 of 62 (.129) at the plate in Games 4 and 5. I passed Games 1 & 2 but then ca$hed 10* plays on Houston in Game 3 (MLB Game of the Year) and Game 4. My Game 5 play was made "no-action" because of the late pitching change but I 'nailed' my 10* Game of the Week play in Game 6 on the Nats, when they won 7-2! I noted HOF manager Earl Weaver famous quote, "Momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher," Taking Strasburg over Verlander. Now it's Game 7, as Max Scherzer takes on Zach Greinke.

Scherzer is apparently recovered from the neck injury that scratched him from Game 5, as he threw Tuesday afternoon and pronounced himself ready to make the Game 7 start. "Max will pitch until his neck decides he can't pitch anymore," Washington manager Dave Martinez said in a press conference. "I can't see myself telling Max, 'you're only going to go 75 pitches.' He's going to want to go out there and go as long as he can." Scherzer struggled in the wild card game early but settled down, as the Nats rallied to win 4-3. He's pitched one inning of relief plus made three postseason starts since, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA over 19 innings in those starts (25 Ks). Greinke was awful in Game 3 of the ALDS at Tampa Bay (six ERs allowed in 3.2 innings of a 10-3 loss) but pitched better in Game 1 of the ALCS (three ERs over six innings with a 6-0 KW ratio), although Houston lost, 7-0. He has yet to complete five innings in each of his last two postseason starts but the Astros have won both games (8-3 & 4-1), with Greinke allowing just two ERs over nine innings.

The road team has won EACH of the first six games of this seven-game series. It's likely you've already heard that's NEVER happened before in World Series history. Can (will?) the Nats make it 7-for 7 for the road team in the 2019 World Series? No one knows how effective Scherzer will be and I'm betting on Houston, which I believe is MLB's best team (owned MLB's best home record in the regular season. The Astros won a club-record 60 games at home this season and endured a losing skid of more than two games at Minute Maid Park only once (Sept 10-12 against the Oakland Athletics), prior to the World Series. Greinke has been one of MLB's best home pitchers since 2011 and the Astros acquired Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the July 31 trade deadline with just this kind of moment in mind (Greinke went 8-1 over 10 starts with the Astros). He was a heralded acquisition at the trade deadline but has yet to deliver a "signature" pitching performance for the Astros. Game 7 would serve as a timely reminder of Greinke's stellar resume and validate what Houston surrendered (four minor-leaguers) to secure his services from the Arizona Diamondbacks.That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Was Nats at 8:07 ET.

The Houston Astros waited 55 years for their first World Series championship (2017) but the the Astros are now just ONE win away from claiming their second in a three-year span. Houston dropped the first two games of the 2019 World Series at home but rebounded to win Games 3, 4 and 5 in Washington, outscoring the Nats 19-3!

Houston bats 'woke up' in Washington, while Washington hitters disappeared. In Games 3 and 4, the Nats were an abysmal 1-19 with RISP and left 21 men on base. The big story of Game 5 was Scherzer's late scratch but that doesn't explain Washington getting just FOUR hits (lone run came on a Soto HR) in Game 5 or the team going a combined 8 of 62 (.129) at the plate in Games 4 and 5.

Houston returns home needing ONE win to clinch the series and the Astros were an MLB-best 60-21 during the regular season at Minute Maid Park and 5-1 in the postseason, before losing the first two of the World Series the Nationals last week. After winning Games 1 and 2, the Nationals had won EIGHT straight postseason games in 2019 but as already detailed above, it all 'fell apart' for them when they returned to D.C. However, as HOF manager Earl Weaver famously said, "Momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher." With that in mind, here's the Game 6 starters.

Stephen Strasburg has made five appearances (four starts) in the 2019 postseason, going 4-0 with a win in relief, while the Nats are 4-0 in his starts. He owns a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, upping his career record in the playoffs to 5-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight appearances (seven starts). Justin Verlander pitched very well in Winning Game 1 of the ALDS (seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with an 8-0 KW ratio) but he's 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his last four playoff starts (including a 12-3 setback in Game 2), with the Astros going 1-3 in those starts. Verlander's World Series woes are well-documented but worth repeating. He's 0-5 with a 5.73 ERA over six starts (teams are 1-5). He has surrendered 24 runs on 30 hits over 33 World Series innings and has issued 11 walks and seven HRs with 36 strikeouts. Not exactly the kind of numbers one would expect from a future Hall of Famer.

Strasburg was the top pick of the 2009 MLB Draft and he went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA, leading the National League with a career high in wins, while also striking out a career-best 251. He CAN'T win the World Series for the Nats in Game 6 but he can get them to a Game 7 and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET.

I had the Houston Astros as my MLB Game of the Year in Game 3 and Houston won, 4-1. Have the Astros "made it a series?" Time will tell and Game 4 will provide the answer. The top-three hitters in Houston's lineup each had three hits and each scored two runs, while Altuve also had two RBI. Greinke could only give Houston 4.2 innings, as he once again struggled, allowing seven hist and three walks. However, he continually worked out of trouble, allowing just one run. Five Houston relievers were able to pitch 4.1 scoreless innings. Was is it Houston's pitching or the failure of Washington's bats? The Nats were an abysmal 0-of-10 with RISP and left 12 men on base, as they saw their EIGHT-game postseason winning streak snapped. Washington's Sanchez was hardly the same pitcher we last saw in Game 1 of the NLCS, when he took a no-hitter in the 8th inning. He allowed 10 hits and four ERs in 5.1 innings.

The Game 4 starters will be Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin.Houston manager A.J. Hinch said after Game 3 that Urquidy will be the starter and will go as far as he can, before turning it over to the bullpen. He is well-rested as he last pitched Oct 19, a night in which he struck out five in 2.2 innings of relief and gave up one run and three hits against the New York Yankees in Game 6 of the ALCS (Houston won 6-4, clinching that series). Urquidy's only other appearance this postseason was Oct 8 against the Tampa Bay Rays when he pitched 1.1 scoreless innings in Game 4 of the ALDS.Corbin has been used out of the bullpen FOUR times this postseason , alongside two starts. He was solid in Game 1 of the ALDS at the Dodgers (6 IP / 1 ER) but Washington lost, 6-0. He got the win in Game 4 of the NLCS against St Louis but it sure helped that the Nats scored SEVEN times in the first inning. He did have 12 Ks but lasted only five innings, while allowing four ERs.

A.J. Hinch said on the FOX broadcast after Game 3. "Jose Urquidy has been really good for us. He's started a little bit, and he's been in the 'pen, and we're going to turn it over to him in the first inning (of Game 4), give him an opportunity to go as deep as he can." Urquidy made nine regular season appearances (seven starts / team was 4-3), posting a 3.95 ERA with an excellent 40-7 KW ratio. Corbin had a strong finish to the season (9-2 over his last 19 starts / team was 13-6) but he owns a 6.91 ERA in his six 2019  postseason appearances plus has a 5.21 ERA in three career starts vs Houston.

In taking the Astros in Game 3, I noted Houston was MLB's best road team the last three regular seasons (157-86, .646) and I'll note here that the Houston lineup draws a lefty in Corbin, and Houston was 38-11 vs left-handers in 2019 (is 2-1 in the postseason vs lefties). A win Saturday would move the Nationals one victory away from their first World Series title but a loss would set another matchup against of Cole and Scherzer, with the series tied at two-all. That would be great for baseball and my bet says that;s EXACTLY what we should expect.

Good luck...Larry

My  MLB 10* Game of the Year is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET.

The Washington Nationals, who were just 19-31 after their first 50 games of the 2019 season, are now just TWO wins away from the franchise's FIRST-EVER World Series title. The Nats have stunned just about everyone (maybe not themselves) by winning the first two games of the World Series in Houston and can now take a commanding 3-0 lead when they host the Astros on Friday. Washington became the 26th team to win Games 1 and 2 on the road in a best-of-seven series under the 2-3-2 format and only three clubs, the last being the 1996 Atlanta Braves in the World Series, have lost. Houston was a prohibitive favorite to win its second World Series title in three seasons instead finds itself in a virtual MUST-WIN in the first World Series game played in the nation's capital since 1933.

The Game 3 pitching matchup will be Zach Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Greinke went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 regular-season starts (Houston was 8-2) with the Astros after being acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline. However, he lost his first two postseason outings at Tampa Bay in the ALDS and against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS, allowing 12 hits and nine ERS over just 9.2 innings for an 8.38 ERA. He started Game 4 of the ASLCS as well, with the Astros winning 8-3 but he was far from sharp. He allowed just one run but three hits and four walks with five strikeouts and was pulled after 4.1 innings.

Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4LA win. However, Sanchez was just FOUR outs away from a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLCS, when Jose Martinez singled. He did get the win in a 2-0 Nats victory.

The problem is, Sanchez has NOT pitched, since Oct 11. It's easy right now to argue that this is Washington's time but I will NOT sell the Astros short, just yet. Houston is in the World Series for the second time in three seasons and the team's road play has been a big reason for that. Houston is a MLB-best 157-86 (.646) on the road from 2017-19! As for Greinke, he's an "ace" and while he hasn't shown it yet in this postseason, it's my bet he comes through here for Houston. He has dominated the Nationals in his career, going 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA over nine starts (teams are 7-2). The latest meeting came at Washington on June 13 when Greinke was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gave up just two hits over 7.1 scoreless innings as Arizona earned a 5-0 victory. The Astros ain't 'dead' just yet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ALCS Game 4 play is on the NY Yankees at 8:08 ET.

Wednesday's ALCS contest was rained out, so Game 4 now goes tonight. The New York Yankees won Game 1, as Tanaka pitched six scoreless innings and 22-year-old Gleyber Torres (in his second season) singled, doubled and homered while driving in five runs!  However, New York's lethal offense has been held to just THREE runs the last two games, with Aaron Judge's two-run HR accounting for all the scoring in Game 2's 11-inning loss, while Torres provided New York’s only run in a 4-1 setback Tuesday when he hit a solo HR. Verlander and Cole combined to allow two ERs in 13.2 innings (1.32 ERA) and Houston relievers have allowed just one ER in 6.2 innings (1.35 ERA). Houston is a little worried about its offense as well, as while the Astros led the majors with a .275 BA in the regular season, they are hitting only .217 in the postseason, averaging a VERY modest 3.25 RPG.

My 10* ALCS Tie-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 4:08 ET.

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros jockeyed for the top spot in the American League for much of the regular season, so it is only fitting that they will meet in the 2019 ALCS. It's a rematch of the 2017 ALCS when the Astros outlasted the Yankees in seven games. New York comes in off a 3-game sweep of the Twins (outscored Minnesota 23-7), while the Astros were forced to play all FIVE games to eliminate the Rays, (Houston won Games 1 & 2 , lost Games 3 & 4 and then prevailed 6-1 in Game 5).

The Game 1 starters will be Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) and Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA). Tanaka did not have a very good season but he was excellent against the Twins last Saturday, allowing a single run on three hits with seven strikeouts over five solid innings. He is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts in the playoffs, including two in the 2017 ALCS against Houston in which he let up just two runs across 13 total innings. Greinke had a very good season pitching for Arizona and Houston (see above), going 8-1 in 10 starts (team was 8-2) for the Astros after the trade. However, Greinke was awful in Game 3 at Tampa Bay, allowing six runs on five hits (including three HRs) in just 3.2 innings.

I realize that Tanaka has a good postseason record but he was very poor on the road in 2019, posting a 6.05 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .287 BAA. Greinke has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs on seven hits over 12.2 innings (2.13 ERA). One HAS to believe he will be HIGHLY-motivated after that 'ugly' effort vs the Rays. It sure won't hurt his confidence that the Astros are 63-21 at home this season (3-0 at home this postseason), outscoring opponents on average, 6.00-to-3.88 RPG. Let me also remind all that in thae2017 ALCS, the home team won all SEVEN games, with the Astros holding the Yankees to just THREE runs in the four games in Houston. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NLCS Game 1 Opener is on the St Louis at 8:08 ET.

The Yankees made short work of the Twins and the Astros, the team with MLB's best record in 2019, were able to put away the Rays with a 6-1 Game 5 win on Thursday, as the two ALDS matchups were won by the AL's two-best teams. However, form didn't hold over in the NL, where the two underdogs prevailed in the NLDS matchups. Both series went a full five games, with the St Louis Cardinals winning 13-1 at the 97-win Atlanta Braves and the wild-card Washington Nationals overcoming a 3-0 deficit to win 7-3 (10 innings) at the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers. The NLCS opens Friday and while the Nationals won 93 games, the 91-win Cardinals won the NL Central which earns them the home field advantage in the seven-game series.

Taking the mound for Game 1 will be Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.50 ERA). Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4 LA win.

Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, one season after tying for the NL lead in wins, his 14 losses in 2019 were tied for the most losses. St Louis went 17-15 in his starts (-$132), quite a drop-off from his 2018 numbers. Mikolas pitched reasonably well at home (3.01 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / .247 BAA) but struggled badly on the road (5.40 ERA / 1.42 WHIP / .297 BAA). Mikolas got the nod in Game 1 of the NLDS and held Atlanta to one run on three hits over five innings without factoring in the decision. He came out of the bullpen in Monday's Game 4 and earned a victory with a perfect 10th inning when Yadier Molina provided a walk-off RBI sac fly in the bottom of the inning.

The Nats' turnaround has been something (76-38, .667 after their 19-31 start) but don't be too quick to dismiss the Cards' excellent play after the All Star break, as St Louis went 47-27 (.635) after the break. Washington is playing in the franchise's first NLCS since the Montreal Expos lost in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981. Meanwhile, the Cards have played is six World Series since 1982, winning three titles. The Expos became the Nationals in 2005 and after failing to advance to the NLCS in four previous tries (all since 2012), the Nats FINALLY won an NLDS matchup. In stark contrast, the Cards have made the playoffs 13 times since 2000 and have now advanced to the NLCS for the 10th time in that span. Maybe it is "finally Washington's time" but seeing is believing. I've got the Cards in Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Game 5 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:37 ET.

The Nats are best-known for their playoff failures but after a 19-31 start in 2019, Washington finished on a 74-38 run. The Nats beat the Brewers in the wild card game & now it's a deciding Game 5 vs the Dodgers (the NL's best team all season, finishing with 13 more wins than the Nats). The Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers, falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Game 4 saw two 35-yerar-old Washington players, Scherzer (7 IP / 1 ER) and Zimmerman (3-run HR in the 5th), help the Nats tie the series up at two-all with a 6-1 win in Game 4.

It's a terrific pitching matchup in Game 5, as Stephen Strasburg (2019 postseason: 2-0, 1.00 ERA ) squares off against Walker Buehler (2019 postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA). Strasburg had the best regular season of his career (18-6, 3.32 ERA / 1.4 WIP / .210 BAA). and while he's a modest 3-2 in the postseason (five appearances / four starts), let's look closer. His postseason ERA is 0.64, the lowest in playoff history with a minimum of four starts (also owns an 0.82 WHIP).

Hard to argue too strongly against Strrasburg but Buehler has earned his way past Kershaw to become LA's 'ace.' Buehler was 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA over 30 regular season starts (team was 20-10) with a 1.04 WHIP, .223 BAA and 215-37 KW ratio. Buehler allowed just one hit and three walks while striking out eight across six innings of a 6-0 victory in Game 1 on Thursday. He is 7-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts at Dodger Stadium this season and 11-5 with a 2.52 ERA at home in 33 career games (29 starts) including the postseason.

Recapping from above, the Dodgers were 13 wins better this season than the Nats plus LA's run-differential was an NL-best plus-273, compared to Washington's plus-149. The Dodgers will take the field with a 60-23 record at Chavez Ravine, outscoring opponents on average, 5.41-to-3.31 RPG. The Expos became the Nats in 2005 but the franchise has yet to advance to an NLCS matchup. Why start here, especially against Buehler? He dominated in Game 163 last year, when the Dodgers handled the Colorado Rockies 5-2 in a regular-season tiebreaker to win the NL West, pitching six scoreless innings of one-hit ball. Including his Game 1 start of this series, Buehler takes the mound having allowed just one ER over his last three postseason starts (0.51 ERA) with a 22-3 KW ratio!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NLDS Clincher is on the StL Cardinals at 5:02 ET.

The Braves were down 1-0 going into the 9th inning of Game 3 but back-to-back run-scoring hits allowed them to rally for a stunning 3-1 victory. Atlanta led Game 4 by one run in the 8th on Monday but this time it was the Cards turn to rally, tying it in the bottom of the 8th and winning it in the bottom of the 10th. That set up this Game 5 in Atlanta, as the Braves look to win their first postseason series since 2001.

Game 5 is a pitching rematch of Game 2, as Jack Flaherty squares off against Mike Foltynewicz. The Cards could hardly blame their Game 2 loss on Flaherty, who gave up a first-inning run and then two-run HR in the seventh (8-1 KW ratio) in his postseason debut. Flaherty has been the Cards best pitcher post-July 4th, as he ended the regular season allowing two ERs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts. In those final 16 starts, he allowed just 11 ERs over 92.1 innings for an 0.91 ERA!

Foltynewicz dominated the Cardinals in Game 2, striking out seven with no walks and three hits allowed in seven scoreless innings to earn his first career postseason victory. That effort continued his revival since returning from a mid-summer trip to the minors. The 28-year-old owned a 6.37 ERA when he was sent to the minors in late June. He returned in early August and hardly impressed in his first two starts, allowing seven ERs over 11.1 innings (5.56 ERA). However, over his last nine starts (including Game 2 of this series), he's 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA dating to Aug 17, allowing 10 ERs on 35 hits in 53.1 innings with a 48-13 KW.

Both pitchers are 'on fire' but I always look to "play on" the loser of the first meeting in a quick "re-hook" situation. What's more, history is on the Cards side. The Braves squandered numerous chances to clinch the series in Game 4, which hardly bodes well for a franchise that hasn't advanced to a League Championship Series since 2001. Five more teams own that distinction (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh San Diego, Seattle and Washington) but while those five franchises have made a total of 14 postseason appearances in that time frame, the Braves have made NINE, all by themselves. As for the Cardinals, they have won FOUR series this century in which they were a loss away from elimination (the 2004 NLCS, the 2011 NLDS, the 2011 World Series and the 2013 NLDS). Cards win and then await the Was/LAD winner.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* MLB Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins.

The New York Yankees have outscored the Minnesota Twins 18-6 at Yankee Stadium Friday and Saturday to take a 2-0 lead in this ALDS. The Twins have now dropped a record 15 consecutive postseason games, 12 of them to the Yankees.Is Game 3 just a formality? The Yankees look for their third straight ALDS sweep against the Twins behind right-hander Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) Minnesota will try to stay alive with veteran Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA).

Severino was New York's 'ace' in 2018, going 19-8 witha 3.39 ERA in 32 starts (Yanks were 24-8, +$658). However, he missed most of 2019 with shoulder and lat issues. He made his 2019 debut on Sep 17 and threw nine scoreless innings over his first two starts but then allowed two runs in just three innings at Texas in his last outing on Sep 28. Is he ready for primetime (the postseason)? He hasn't been in the past, as he's struggled in the playoffs. He owns a 6.26 ERA in his six career postseason starts (Yanks are 3-3), working beyond five innings only ONCE.

Odorizzi was a disappointing 7-10 (4.49 ERA) in his first season with Minnesota last year (was signed as a FA away from Tampa Bay) but opened 2019 by going 9-2 with a 1.92 ERA through June 9 (team was 10-3 in his starts). Odorizzi was an All-Star for the first time in 2019 but missed a chance to pitch in his first All-Star Game due to a blister on his right middle finger. He struggled for all of July but went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five August starts (Twins were 4-1) and 1-1 with 3.27 ERA in four September starts (Twins were 3-1). He finished the season with Minnesota going 21-9 in his 30 starts, earning a profit of $1,031.

OK, Minnesota has lost 15 straight postseason games and 10 in a row at home. That said, aren't the Twins due (overdue)? Severino has hardly pitched in 2019 and owns a poor playoff history, including a dismal outing against the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game when he allowed three runs while recording just ONE out! Meanwhile, Odorizzi has allowed three ERs or less in each of his final 10 starts in the regular season, finishing with six innings of one-run ball in a 4-2 win at Detroit on Sep 24. Minnesota gets off the schneid with a "W" in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 6:40 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers (including Scherzer, who struck out all three batters in a one-inning effort), falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Cody Bellinger recorded his first two hits of the series in the sixth inning while Russell Martin lined a two-run double and Justin Turner launched a three-run homer during the uprising for Los Angeles, which had scored three runs in its previous 14 innings. Juan Soto’s two-run HR in the first inning held up for the Nats until they went to the bullpen in the sixth and were ONE strike away from getting out of the innings. It was NOT to be and now the Nats are ONE loss away from ending another postseason in disappointing fashion.

Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Max Scherzer (11-7, 292 ERA / 0-0, 4.50 this postseason) for Washington. Hill gave up one run on one hit and six walks with 11 strikeouts over 5.2 innings in three starts in September (team was 3-0), after missing almost three months with a forearm strain. He made only 13 starts in an injury-interrupted season but LA did go 10-3. As you can see, LA limited his pitch counts since his return. The 39-year-old is 1-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances (11 starts), with all but one occurring with the Dodgers.

Manager Dave Martinez decided to pull back Scherzer from a Game 3 start, giving the three-time Cy Young Award winner an extra day after striking out the side in one inning of Game 2 on Friday. The 35-year-old started the wild-card game on Tuesday and was reached for three runs in the first two innings (two HRs) but settled down before leaving after five innings. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 18 career playoff games but his teams are just 4-10 in his 14 starts (hardly deserved a win in the wild card game).

Washington looked like it was in "good shape" into the 6th inning for Game 3 and again, was just ONE staike (or made out) away from leading no worse than 2-1 into the 7th but......Scherzer has NOT performed all that well in the postseason but if not now, when? Hill has been critical of getting pulled early in recent playoff starts but says he is not worried about whether the Dodgers will limit his innings. "Pitch count, whatever it is, I can't control that," Hill told reporters. "Whatever I can give the team, I'm going to give the team. And the decision that's made is going to be made obviously beyond my control. So that's first and foremost. And my expectations are to go out there and have the ball come out of my hand the way I want it to every time. So that's something that hasn't changed in a long time for me, and that's been pretty consistent, and it will be (Monday)."

Sound good but I think Washington can (and will) get to him. It's about time for Scherzer to pitch like a three-time Cy Young winner and if he does, we are headed to a Game 5 in LA featuring Strasburg and Buehler (great matchup). My bet says we're back to Chavez Ravine on Wednesday for Game 5.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Series G.O.Y. is on the StL Cards at 3:07 ET.

The Atlanta Braves lost Game 1 at home to the Cardinals 7-6 (Cards won the 9th inning, 4-3) but then won 3-0 in Game 2, as the red-hot Mike Foltynewicz (7 scoreless innings) out-dueled the equally red-hot Jack Flaherty (7 IP / 3 ERs). However, the Braves seemed 'dead in the water' in Game 3 at St Louis, entering the 9th inning down 1-0 (veteran Wainwright pitched 7.2 scoreless innings) and looked as if they would be facing elimination in Game 4. However, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall came through to push the team within one win of its first appearance in the NL Championship Series in 18, delivering back-to-back run-scoring hits as the Braves rallied for a stunning 3-1 victory. Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez got the blown save and the loss and has struggled mightily in the series, surrendering six runs on five hits and three walks over just 2.1 innings.

It's now the Cards facing elimination in Game 4 but the good news is that they will have Daniel Hudson (16-7, 3.35 ERA) on the mound. Hudson emerged as an anchor of the Cardinals' rotation while making 32 starts. He tied for third in the NL in victories and 11th in ERA, while recording the most wins by a rookie since Justin Verlander registered 17 with Detroit in 2006. The Cards were just 3-5 in his first eight starts but then won 19 of his last 24, with Hudson allowing less that three ERs in 22 of them! He finished the regular season by going 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA over his final nine starts, holding opponents to a .146/.268/.264 slash line. Hudson, who went 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 home starts (team was 13-4).

Atlanta held back on announcing who will start but it looks like Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). I don't get it. Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last nine starts. However, the Braves were just 10-9 in his 18 overall starts and Keuchel struggled on the road, with a 5.01 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .296 BAA in nine starts. In 10 home starts he owned a 2.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .239 BAA. He got the Game 1 start and gave up one run on five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings.

Why not Teheran here, as he gave up two of fewer ERs in 21 of his 33 regular-season starts? 'LOVE' Hudson over Keuchel (on THREE days' rest) in this spot.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET.

The Houston Astros are on the verge of sweeping their ALDS matchup with the Tampa Rays. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole combined to allow five hits and strike out 23 over 14.2 innings in Games 1 and 2 plus some timely hitting have Houston one win away from moving on the ALCS for a THIRD consecutive year. Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. However, the Rays surprised by earning a wild card berth in 2019 (first postseason appearance since 2013), beating the A's 5-1 in Wednesday's wild card game. The Rays have scored just THREE runs in the two losses and clearly have 'a big hill to climb' to get back into the series

Taking the mound for Game 3 will be Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) and Charlie Morton ( (16-6, 3.05 ERA / 1-0, 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Greinke will get first crack at clinching the best-of-five series for the Astros and he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts (Astros went 8-2) after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline.Is it a concern that he's pitching for the first time since Sep 25? The good news for Tampa Bay is that it has its best pitcher taking the mound in this elimination game. Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton did during the regular season to go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons.

Morton pitched the Rays into the ALDS with a very good performance in the Wild Card Game against Oakland on Wednesday, scattering five hits and an unearned run over five innings to earn the win. Morton has not taken a loss in his last five postseason appearances, four of which he made for the Astros in 2017 and 2018. He went the final four innings of the 2017 World Series-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7. As for Greinke, I do NOT think it's good news that he hasn't pitched in almost two e=weeks. I'll also note that Greinke's worst start since joining Houston came against Tampa Bay back on Aug 29, when he was reached for five ERs on six hits over 5.2 innings. "These guys do a good job of controlling the situation," Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters. "I don't think there's a real message. They know what's at stake. They've played so well all season long. We're going to have to have some things go in our favor now going forward, but we're capable of playing a really good game on Monday and see where that takes us."Rays 'live' to 'fight' another day.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 9:37 ET.

The Dodgers took care of the Nats 6-0 in Game 1 of their NLDS, as Walker Buehler pitched six shutout innings and Max Muncy drove in three runs. Gavin Lux (first career playoff at-bat) and Joc Pederson both added eighth-inning HRs. We now move to Game 2 which features the marquee pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) going up against Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA).

Strasburg won a career-high 18 games in 2019 but is in a tough spot here, as the Nats needed him their wild card game vs the Brewers on Tuesday. Strasburg pitched three scoreless innings of relief to pick up the win, throwing 34 pitches (26 for strikes) while allowing two hits and striking out four. He now comes back on short rest to face the Dodgers, who are now 60-22 (outscoring opponents 5.45-to-3.30 RPG) at home in 2019, after last night's win. Delving a little deeper, the Dodgers are 44-11 vs righties at home (+$2,200), while averaging 5.8 RPG. Strasburg may own a 2.66 career ERA vs LA in 11 starts but he's just 3-5 and the Nats 3-8.

OK, let's state up front that Kershaw owns a 4.32 ERA in 30 playoff appearances. Now to the "good stuff." The Dodgers went 21-7 in Kershaw's 28 starts this season (+$788 ranked 13th-best among all starters) and that includes a 13-3 record in his home starts (note: 15 of those starts came at night, with LA going 13-2). Kershaw's had no problems with the Nats in his career, going 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 18 starts (LA is 15-3). With Strasburg having made his first-ever career relief appearance on Tuesday, it's not likely he'll pitch deep into this game. Them it's the worst bullpen in the NL (5.68 ERA). LA goes up 2-0 and the Nats will hope that Scherzer can pitch better than he did vs Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 5:02 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 8:09 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays take MLB's second-best road record (48-33) into tonight's wild card game in Oakland against the A's, who own MLB's 4th-best home record (52-29). Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. This wild card game marks the team's first postseason appearance since 2013. The Athletics moved from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968 and developed into a "mini-dynasty" by winning three consecutive World Series titles from 1972-74. A second "mini-dynasty" arose from 1988 to 1990, when the A's played in THREE straight World Series again, but this time lost TWO of the three. Oakland has not been able to keep up with the exploding salary situation since 2000 but this postseason appearance marks the team's 10 playoff appearance in that span. The kicker? The A's have won just ONE series (wild card or ALDS) in their previous NINE postseason appearances. Both teams finished the regular season strong, with Tampa Bay going 20-6 before losing its last two games, while Oakland went 18-6 before also dropping its last insignificant game at Seattle.

Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) will get the ball for the Rays, while the A's turn to Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton has done this year is go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons.

Manaea was chosen by Oakland manager Bob Melvin for this wild card start over Mike Fiers, who went 15-4 this season, including a 12-game win streak and a no-hitter. However, Fiers has had a rough September, winning only ONCE in five starts and compiling a 7.84 ERA. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in both 201 and 2018 season but suffered a torn labrum late in 2017. He needed surgery and missed the end of 2018 and almost the entire 2019 season. He was able to return to the mound September of 2019 and has made five starts. In his first start (at the NYY on Sep 1), he allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings, but the A's would go on to lose, 5-4. However, he would then win his last four starts of September and enters this game 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .160 BAA.

So what's the play? Here's something I left out, above. Despite Morton's excellent season numbers, I will NOT ignore that over his last five road starts, he's allowed 22 ERs on 34 hits in just 26.1 innings for a 7.52 ERA. Oakland advances to the ALDS where, unfortunately, the Astros await.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET.

The Atlanta Braves wrap up the regular season looking to avoid getting swept by the Mets, as they prepare for an NLDS meeting with the Central Division winners (StL or Mil). New York was 40-50 at the All-Star break but has 45-26 in the second half, including winning 13 of 19 games since Sep 8. However, this contest ends their season. However, the great news is that first baseman Pete Alonso set the big-league single-season rookie record with his 53rd homer in Saturday's 3-0 victory. Alonso’s third-inning solo shot provided the final piece of his likely NL Rookie of the Year campaign and he enters the season finale with 120 RBI, 102 runs scored and a .945 OPS.

Taking the mound today will be Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.60 ERA) for Atlanta and Noah Syndergaard (10-8, 4.30 ERA) for the Mets. If Alonso is the ROY, then Soroka is surely the rookie Pitcher of the Year. He has been extra special away from home, going 7-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, while allowing opponents to bat .195 in 15 road starts. Syndergaard wraps up the season with his career-high 32nd start plus enters Sunday having pitched 190.2 innings (another career high). However, he has limped toward the finish by allowing four ERs in each of his last four starts, posting a 6.97 ERA in that span.

Soroka is looking to nail down a start in Game 3 of the NLDS (would be on the road) and he's won both his starts against the Mets this season. In a meaningless game, the "play" is Soroka over Syndergaard.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Pit Pirates at 3:05 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds lost 5-4 in 15 innings in the series opener at Pittsburgh on Friday, extending their skid in Pittsburgh against the Pirates to 11 games. The Reds needed 12 innings on Saturday but won 4-2, ending that 11-game skid in the Steel City (dated back to June 2018). The Reds ended a five-game overall losing streak on Saturday as well, while the Pirates saw a four-game winning streak snapped. Both teams finish disappointing seasons on Sunday as 74-87 Cincinnati will end the year with its SIXTH straight losing season and 69-92 Pittsburgh has dropped off the earth after going 82-79 in 2018.

Tyler Mahle (2-12, 5.34 ERA) gets the nod for the Reds and Trevor Williams (7-8, 5.52 ERA) for the Pirates. It's Mahle's 25th birthday and he hopes to record his first win since May 31. However, just why should we expect that.? He lasted only 2.1 innings vs Milwaukee on Wednesday, getting roughed up for eight runs and seven hits (including three HRs), to run his winless drought to 13 appearances. He has made 14 road starts in 2019, going 0-8 with the Reds losing 12 of the 14!

OK, Williams is not much better. He gave up three runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings in 2018 and opened 2019 with a 2.59 ERA in his first five starts (Pittsburgh won FOUR of the five). However, he enters Sunday with a 5.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .286 BAA. That said, the Pirates are 14-11 in his starts in 2019 (the Reds are 6-18 in Mahle's starts, including 2-12 on the road) plus he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Reds this season. What's more, as noted above, the Reds had lost 11 straight at PNC Park before Saturday's win. Pirates start a new winning streak at home vs the Reds right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Tex Rangers at 3:05 ET.

The final game in the 26-year history of Globe Life Park will take place Sunday when the host Texas Rangers take on the New York Yankees on the last day of the regular season. The Rangers will leave behind the stadium in which they made eight playoff runs and won seven AL West titles. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 but lost both. Texas enters this game 77-84, after beating the Yankees 9-4 on Saturday. As for New York, the Yankees will playing their final tune-up before hosting Minnesota for Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday.

The Yankees will use an opener in the finale (Chad Green) before giving some innings to Masahiro Tanaka (11-8, 4.47 ERA), who figures to start one of the first three games of the playoffs. Texas counters with Lance Lynn (15-11, 3.76 ERA). Tanaka has pitched well at Yankee Stadium in 2019 (8-3 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .238 BAA) but he's been awful on the road. In 15 away starts, his ERA balloons to 6.16, his WHIP to 1.39 and his BAA to .282. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). Texas was "in the wild card hunt" just after the All Star break but the team finally folded. Lynn had gone eight straight starts without a win before picking one up at Oakland last Sunday, when he held the Athletics to two runs in 5.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against one walk in an 8-3 win.

Here's the catch. Yes, Lynn was 0-5 (team was 0-8) in that sttretch but since the start of August (nine starts, including his most recent win), he allowed three ERs in SEVEN of the nine, striking out 66 in 53 innings. The Rangers have been money-makers at home this season (44-36, +$1,4-03) and vs righties in home days games, are 10-3, averaging 7.3 RPG. Green and Tanaka are both righties and I noted Tanaka's road numbers above. NY has NOTHING to play for so back Lynn (this marks a career-high 33rd start) at this GREAT price!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Atlanta Braves have clinched the NL's second seed (will host the NL Central winner in one of the two NLDS), so their focus will be on getting their lineup in order as they open a three-game series at Citi Field with the Mets on Friday.Ronald Acuna Jr. will sit out the Mets series with a left groin strain that he suffered in Tuesday’s loss at Kansas City but first baseman Freddie Freeman, who missed the Kansas City series with a bone spur in his right elbow, is expected to return Friday. The Mets were eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday but have clinched their first winning season since 2016. All eyes will be on likely NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, who enters the final three games of the season with a big-league best 51 HRs, one off Aaron Judge’s rookie record of 52 set in 2017. Alonso is also attempting to become the first Mets player to lead the majors in home runs, as he leads Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez by two.

Getting the starts will be Dallas Keuchel (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (9-13, 3.23 ERA).Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in EIGHT of his last nine starts. I'm not so sure I agree. The Braves are just 10-8 in his 18 overall starts and in eight road starts, he owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .291 BAA. I will note however, that Keuchel has faced the Mets twice since joining the Braves in late June, going 1-0 with no runs allowed on nine hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Mets acquired Stroman from Toronto at the trade deadline and he's gone 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts (Mets are 7-3). The Mets won Stroman's first four starts and lost his next three, but enter this contest having won his last three. Has Stroman been "all the Mets had hoped he'd be?" I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Not sure there is any kind of pitching edge in this one but Stroman is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts against the Braves, including his only start against them with the Mets coming on Aug. 15 in Atlanta. He allowed three runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of a 10-8 win in that one. I doubt Keuchel will pitch more than five innings but I can see Stroman, who will become a free agent after the 2020 season, pitching very well. Again, all eyes will be on Alonso and I "have a feeling" this could be a big night for him. Not much for the Braves to play for here.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Tuesday morning.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers begin a season-ending six-game road trip tonight in Cincinnati with the first of three games with the Reds.The Brewers are 15-2 in their last 17 games, including an impressive 10-2 since losing 2018 MVP Christian Yelich for the season. Milwaukee is a MLB-best 17-4 in September and enters Tuesday 3 1/2 games back of St Louis in the NL Central, a half-game back of the 86-69 Nats for the No. 1 wild card spot but a full FOUR games clear of the Cubs for that second wild card spot with just SIX games remaining (a playoff spot seems pretty safe). As for the Reds, they have already secured a SIXTH straight losing season but at 73-83, they can match their highest win total since 2014 (76) by going 3-3 this week or exceed that win total by winning four or more games (note: Reds cap their season with three games at the sad-sack Pirates, who currently own a nine-game losing streak).

Adrian Houser (6-7, 3.83 ERA) takes the mound tonight for the Brewers against the Reds' Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 33 appearances this season, including 16 starts. This marks his 11th consecutive start. Houser has allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last 10 but he hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of his last FIVE. Houser has made 17 road appearances this season, posting a 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .281 BAA. Houser's only career start vs the Reds came back in July 1 at Cincy, when he allowed three ERs over five innings of an 8-6 Milwaukee win (he settled for a no-decision).

Sonny Gray made the NL All Star team this season and continued his second-half surge with last Tuesday's  4-2 win at Wrigley against the Cubs (6.2 IP / 2 ERs / 9 Ks). He enters this contest 6-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break, holding opponents to a .164 average and recording 96 strikeouts in 80 innings.The Reds lost his first two post-break starts (despite Gray posting a 2.08 ERA) but Cincy has won NINE of his last 11 starts. Gray could pitch Sunday at Pittsburgh but this may be his last start of 2019, a season in which he has "re-found" himself  by showing the form that made him a 14-game winner for the  A's in 2014 and '15. Sure, the Brewers are MLB's 'hottest' team but oddsmakers have made them the underdog here, because of the pitching matchup (or should I say, mismatch?). Gray is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five career starts vs Milwaukee (FOUR have come here in 2019), with his teams going a PERFECT 5-0! Make that 6-0 after tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Cle Indians at 6:37 ET.

Bryce Harper's three-run HR catapulted the Philiies to a 9-4 win last night in Cleveland. However, the 79-74 Phillies remain FIVE games behind the Brewers for the NL's second wild card with only NINE nine left to play. Time is running out on Philadelphia but the team has no one to blame but itself, as the Phillies are just 32-31 since All Star break. Cleveland built a 4-1 lead after two innings last night but managed just ONE hit the rest of the way to see its five-game winning streak come to an end and the loss dropped them to 91-64, ONE game behind Tampa Bay for the AL’s second wild card. The rubber match of the three-game series goes tonight, carried on ESPN.

Vince Velasquez (7-7, 4.89 ERA) and Adam Plutko (7-4, 4.34 ERA) step to the mound tonight. Let's note that Velasquez is unbeaten in his last six outings (3-0 / team is 5-1) but add that his ERA in that stretch is 6.84. I'll also add that he has not completed more than five innings in any of his last SEVEN starts. Velasquez is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in two career outings against the Indians. Plutko is 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA over seven starts  (Indians are 5-2) since Aug15 and takes the mound tonight having allowed two ERs or less or in FIVE of his last six starts. Plutko will be facing Philadelphia for the first time in his career.

The idea that Velasquez has pitched well because he's unbeaten in his last six starts is folly (6.84 ERA, remember?), as he's just been lucky to get some excellent run support. I saw someone post that Fangraphs had Philly's chances of securing a playoff spot at 0.3% and that may be generous. Philadelphia is a 'dead team walking!' Meanwhile the Indians are just ONE back of Tampa Bay and VERY much 'alive' to make their FOURTH straight playoff appearance. Home teams wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks begin their final road series of the 2019 season tonight in San Diego.A six-game losing streak from Sep 8-13 effectively took Arizona out of the running in the National League wild-card race and now it looks as if Ketel Marte, a 2019 All Star (.329 / 32 HRs / 92 RBI), will be sidelined indefinitely while dealing with back inflammation. The Diamondbacks enter the weekend needing to make up FIVE games (with just nine remaining) in order to grab the second wild card,. Considering that FOUR teams are between the 78-75 D'backs and that final wild card berth leaves their chances at "slim and none!"The 69-84 Padres are already guaranteed a better record than last year's 66-96 finish but they enter having lost SEVEN of their last eight on the way to the team's NINTH consecutive losing season.

Taking the mound tonight will be Merrill Kelly (11-14, 4.49 ERA) and Eric Lauer (8-9, 4.60 ERA). Kelly has been Arizona's best starting pitcher in September, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts, after working seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati last Saturday. The 30-year-old began September with a similar performance at home against San Diego (9/3), striking out nine while pitching seven scoreless innings of a 2-1 Arizona win. Lauer's road struggles continued in last Saturday's 11-10 loss at Colorado, as he allowed six runs (four earned) over just 2.1 innings, leaving him with a 4-6 record and 6.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home (Padres are 7-7). However, here at Petco Park (in 14 starts), Lauer's ERA is 3.22, that's THREE full runs lower than his road ERA.

That, coupled with Kelly's 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 15 road starts in 2019 (D'backs are 5-10), help set up this play. I noted earlier that Kelly pitched seven scoreless innings against the Padres on Sep 3 but will add that in his other three 2019 starts against the Padres, he's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs for a 7.82 ERA. Getting back to Lauer, he's 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP against Arizona in five career starts (Padres are 3-2). The away/home dichotomy of tonight's two starters puts me on San Diego in this one, buoyed by Lauer's sold numbers against Arizona and Kelly's struggles against the Padres prior to that Sep 3 outing.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals came out of the All Star break at just 44-44 but won 12 of 15 to open the second half. The team then hit a 2-8 skid but has since gone 27-12 and with 10 games left in the regular season, own a THREE-game lead over the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central. Chicago opened its final homestand of the season (10 games) last Friday but after FOUR straight wins, have lost back-to-back games to the Reds and the Cubs are now 'fighting for their lives' with the Brewers for that final NL wild card spot plus would need to outplay the Cards by THREE games with just 10 to go, to catch St Louis atop the division (tall order). However, the Cubs do control their own destiny this weekend, as the Cards visit Wrigley for four games.

Taking the mound in tonight's series opener will be Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26).Flaherty lost 5-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, when he struck 10 and gave up three runs and five hits over six innings. This marks Flaherty's 31st start and he's 6-3 with a 1.07 ERA over his last 13 starts (going back to July 7) with opponents are hitting just .152 against him during that stretch. However, the Cards are a more modest 8-5 in that stretch plus St Louis checks in only 15-15 in all of his 2019 starts (minus-$670 at $100/game!). 

Hendricks can 'feel Flaherty's pain' as he's pitched MUCH better than his 11-9 won-loss record or 15-13 (-$237) moneyline mark. Going back to July 2, Hendricks has allowed two ERs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts. He's allowed just one ER in FIVE of his last six starts. What's more,he is 3-0 with an 0.39 ERA vs St Louis in 2019, allowing just one ER in 23 innings!

The Cards are a sub-.500 team on the road (36-38), while the Cubs, despite back-to-back losses to the Reds the last two nights, are 51-26 at Wrigley, outscoring opponents 5.29-to-3.86 RPG. The clincher? The Cubs are 6-0 at Wrigley vs the Cards in 2019, outscoring them 40-16! Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:10 ET.

The 93-60 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats gives them a "magic number" of ONE!) but they are FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record with just NINE games left to the regular season. Atlanta is 60-31 since June 7 but after 5-4 and 4-1 losses the last two nights to the Phillies, the Braves enter Thursday's "getaway day game" looking to avoid being swept for the first time since late July. Philadelphia won for the third time in five contests, despite finishing with four hits and committing three errors. As I've often noted recently, Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 31-29.Philly is lucky to still be this close as heading into Thursday, the 78-72 Phils are in a virtual tie with the 79-73 Mets, THREE games back of the Brewers and Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot.

Thursday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) and Mike Soroka (12-4, 2.57 ERA). In one sense, Nola has provided the stability Philadelphia’s rotation has lacked for much of the season, as he is tied for first in the NL in starts (32), third in in innings pitched (191.2) and sixth in strikeouts (216). However, here's another take. Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 32 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-14 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$261). Nola takes the mound this afternoon winless (0-2 / team is 0-5 ) with a 4.15 ERA over his last five starts.

Soroka allowed five HRs in just 11 innings in two starts to open September but rebounded last Friday at Washington, allowing one hit with three walks and four strikeouts in six shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Scherzer.. The 22-year-old continues building a case for Rookie of the Year honors, ranking second in the NL in ERA, tied for fifth in WAR for pitchers (5.7) and eighth in WHIP (1.09). It has to be noted that Soroka has been better on the road in 2019 (1.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 15 road outings), compared to a 4.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 12 home starts.

However, I'm "all over" Atlanta and Soroka in this one. Atlanta has not been swept in a series since falling in a two-game set to Kansas City back on July 23-24  but now enters this contest having dropped three games in a row for the first time since July 16-18. Expect Soroka (18-9 in team starts) to 'stop the bleeding,' as the Phillies wild card hopes take a HUGE 'hit.'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies used two infield singles and two HRs to produce a five-run 4th inning, then made it stand up for a 5-4 win last night in Atlanta. The 93-59 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats) but the loss drops them FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record (Atlanta's chances of catching LA are fading quickly). As for the 77-72 Phillies, they are in a virtual tie with the 78-73 Mets, FOUR games back of the second wild card spot (Brewers and Cubs are both 82-69). The fact is, Philly is lucky to still be this close, as last night's win was just their THIRD in their last seven games. Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 30-29.

Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA) and Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50 ERA) take the mound tonight for the middle contest of this three-game series. Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin didn't like being demoted to the bullpen but he took responsibility. "It's ultimately not my decision," Eflin said. "If I don't like it, I should pitch better. I hadn't been really doing my job. Going to the bullpen is another opportunity for me. It's a challenge. I'm a fan of challenges." Eflin allowed just one run in 5.2 innings over four relief appearances and in five starts since returning to the rotation, has posted a 2.84 ERA.

Teheran had one of his few subpar outings this season last Thursday against the Phillies, surrendering five ERs on five hits (including three HRs) of a 9-5 loss. The 28-year-old had allowed just three ERs over 25 innings of his previous four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA. Looking back further, Teheran's outing at Philly last Thursday was just the 4th time in his last 24 starts (going back to May 5) in which he had allowed five runs or more. In that 24-start span, he's posted a 2.94 ERA with a .215 BAA (Braves have gone 16-8 in those outings).

I sure expect a bounce-back effort by Teheran and as for Eflin, let me add that in TWO of his five recent starts, he hasn't completed four innings. Want more? In three starts against the Braves this season, Eflin is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA, allowing 20 runs (12 earned) while lasting only 9.1 innings. His longest outing against the Braves in those three starts is 3.2 innings! Atlanta wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

The Washington Nationals' lackluster September play has left the team little margin for error in its quest for a wild card spot, as the 2019 season now has less than two weeks left. Washington opened its three-game series in St Louis against the Cards last night with a 4-2 loss. Anthony Rendon hit his 34th HR but Washington was limited to four singles otherwise. Washington came to St Louis having lost THREE of four in Atlanta, won TWO of three in Minnesota and lost TWO of three at home to the Braves, in the team's previous three series. The Nats' lead over the Chicago Cubs for the first wild card was reduced to one-half game with the loss plus the Brewers lurk just ONE game back of the Cubs. St Louis got its six-game homestand off on the wrong foot by dropping TWO of three to Milwaukee over the weekend but last night's win allowed the Cards to maintain a two-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central (Milwaukee is three back).

Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) will square off in tonight's second contest of the series. Corbin won double digits in victories three times with Arizona (2013, '17 & '18) and is two wins shy in 2019 of his single-season career high of 14 (2013 & 2017).Corbin logged his NL-best 22nd quality start in Thursday's 12-6 win at Minnesota, allowing three ERs on nine hits over six innings. However, a closer look at Corbin's season reveals that he's been significantly worse on the road than at home in 2019. He owns a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 ERA and .193 BAA in 14 home starts (Nats are 11-3), while pitching to a 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .256 BAA in 16 road starts (team is 7-9).

Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 16-14 in his 2019 starts (minus-$175). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.80 ERA in 16 road starts (as well as a poor 1.40 WHIP and .298 BAA) but in 14 home starts, his ERA is 2.91, his WHIP is 1.01 and opponents are batting a more modest .241 against him.

Corbin's road numbers up against Mikolas' home numbers make for a strong edge to the Cards and St Louis is 30-11 at home against the Nationals since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006. More notably, St Louis is 19-6 its last 25 at home. Cards win and with the Cubs and Brewers both playing at home vs losing teams (Reds and Padres, respectively), the Nats will really start to 'sweat.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis welcomed Milwaukee to town on Friday night for an important three-game series. The Cards were 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Brewers came to St Louis tied with Chicago in the NL Central,  four games back of the Cards. Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers had opened this September 9-2 and on a SEVEN-game winning streak. St Louis snapped Milwaukee's seven-game run with a 10-0 victory on Friday but Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal each hit two-run HRs on Saturday, as the Brewers' 5-2 win allowed them to climb back within four games of the division-leading Cardinals, although they remain one behind the Cubs, who won Friday and Saturday,

It's the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, as Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound against Michael Wacha (6-7, 4.97 ERA). Anderson has been consistent this season for Milwaukee but NOT in a good way. He has completed six innings only TWICE in 24 starts this season, working exactly four innings in each of his last THREE outings. A closer look reveals that while he's been solid at Miller Park (3.68 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / .212 BAA), he's had all sorts of troubles away from home. In 13 road appearances (11 starts), his ERA balloons to 5.72, his WHIP to 1.60 and his BAA to .293..

Moving over to Wacha, he is NOT the pitcher who made such a big 'spalsh' in the 2013 postseason (Cards made it to the World Series where they lost 4-2 to the Red Sox), or the one who went 17-7 (3.38 ERA) in 2015. His last win came back on July 19 (in relief), with his last win as a starter coming all the way back on June 21. However, let me note that after returning to the rotation full time on Aug 5, Wacha has pitched well except for that Aug 5 start in LA vs the Dodgers (six ERs allowed in just 3.2 innings). He enters this contest with a 3.04 ERA over his last six starts.

I see little reason NOT to think that the StL bats will continue Anderson's road woes and will add that Wacha is 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA in three starts against the Brewers this season (Cards are 2-1) and is 6-0 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 career appearances against them. Cards win this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET.

I played Bos over Philly on Saturday and noted the following in my analysis. "Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?'  As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games)."

I backed the Red Sox because of Eduardo Rodriguez and he delivered 6.2 solid innings, allowing one run. Boston won it 2-1 on a sac fly in the 9th. 76-71 Philadelphia, hoping to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011, now sits 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second NL wild-card spot plus also finds themselves 'looking up' on Milwaukee (down 2 1/2 to the Brewers) and the New York Mets (just a half-game back of the Mets). Boston's win gives them a 78-70 record but leaves the Red Sox 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 14 games left to play. Boston's only role the rest of the way will be as a "spoiler."

Taking the mound for the final contest of this two-game series will be Rick Porcello (12-12, 5.83 ERA) and Jason Vargas (6-7, 4.31 ERA). Porcello has allowed six runs and two HRs over four innings in EACH of his last two starts (13.50 ERA). He is nearing the end of a nightmare campaign in which he currently has the highest ERA in the league among qualified starters. Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. The problem is, he is still seeking his first win since joining the Phillies, having gone 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA in eight starts (team is 3-5), giving up at least four runs in half those outings.

Yes, Philadelpha is just 4-6 in its last 10 games (29-28 since the break). After Sunday, the Phils will take to the road for a pivotal 11-game stretch, including five against the wild-card-leading Washington Nationals. However, the Phillies will NOT have to face Rodriguez today but instead draw Porcello, who has served up 30 HRs this season, the second-highest total of his career (see above for more of Porcello's 2019 woes). Vargas is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and really NEEDS to start getting in the win column. Facing a weak pitching opponent like Porcello is a plus (note: Philly is 13-7 in home days games vs righties in 2019), as is Boston's poor 20-27 (-$1,830) record against lefty starters in 2019. GREAT price here on Philly and Vargas.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET.

It's been the "Year of the Home Run" in MLB 2019 and the Oakland Athletics are "doing their part."The A's opened their three-game series at Texas against the Rangers last night with a 14-9 win while hitting five HRs. It was Oakland's fourth straight win, a stretch in which the A's have hit 14 HRs. More importantly, the victory kept them atop the race for the first wild card in the American League (A's are 88-60, the Rays 88-61 and the Twins 86-61). The Rangers were 50-42 back on July 12th (and right in the wild card chase) but Texas has steadily faded since that time and now sits 74-75, coming into tonight's game on a 24-33 stretch.

Saturday's contest is a 'battle of team aces,' as Mike Fiers (14-4, 3.97 ERA) matches up against Mike Minor (13-8, 3.08 ERA).Fiers suffered his first loss since May 1 when he gave up NINE runs and nine hits (including five HRs) in one inning of work at Houston just this past Monday. "I felt great, there's no excuse," Fiers told reporters before later wondering if he was tipping his pitches. "I just have to laugh about it. It's one of those games where you feel like they're on everything you threw." It was a truly an 'ugly' performance but doesn't Fiers deserve a 'mulligan?' Fiers notably threw a no-hitter back on May 7, beating the Reds 2-0. When he took the mound this past Monday at Houston, he had allowed three ERs or less in 21 of his 23 previous starts (streak began two starts before his no-hitter). Starting with his no-hitter, he had gone 12-0 over his previous 21 starts, with the A's going 16-4 with a suspended game (A's would win the resumption of that game).

Minor has pitched well for the so-so Rangers. He ended August by allowing 13 ERs in his final three starts (0-2 / team was 1-2), covering 19.1 innings (6.05 ERA) but he has turned things around this month by going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in two outings. There's catch, though. Both of those wins came on the road and Minor will take the mound tonight in Arlington, having posted a 7.00 ERA over his last five home starts.

Oakland is fighting for a playoff spot and has won 18 of its last 24 meetings with Texas. What's more, the left-handed Minor (the one with a 7.00 home ERA his last five starts) will face an Oakland lineup which is 29-12 vs lefties in 2019, including 17-8 on the road while averaging 6.67 RPG This game is a pick'em?

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET.

Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?'  As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games).

Saturday's pitching matchup features Eduardo Rodriguez (17-6, 3.73 ERA) and Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.70 ERA).Rodriguez had his four-game winning streak, as well as his six-start unbeaten run end Monday vs the Yankees, despite allowing just one run and five hits with nine strikeouts in six innings (Yanks would win, 5-0). The 26-year-old has emerged as the staff ace this season and enters this contest having allowed just four ERs over his last five starts, a span of 32.1 innings (That's an ERA of 1.11).

Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 31 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-13 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$143).Nola allowed four runs, six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings of a 7-2 loss to Atlanta on Monday and takes the mound tonight winless (0-2 / team is 0-4 ) with a 5.01 ERA over his last four starts.

Nola has been an underachiever in 2019, while Rodriguez has been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-8 (+$1,328), which is the No. 2 mark among all MLB starter. Sure, the Phils have something to play for but you couldn't tell it by their 29-27 record since the break. Boston is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis is 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Cards welcome the Brewers to St Louis with a four-game lead over Milwaukee (and Chicago) in the division.Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers have opened this September 9-2 and enter this series on a SEVEN-game winning streak.

Taking the mound for tonight's series opener will be Adrian Houser (6-5, 3.59 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (11-9, 4.16 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 31 appearances this season, including 14 starts. This marks his NINTH consecutive start. Houser has allowed just one ER in SIX of his last eight starts but he's really no more than a five-inning pitcher. He takes the mound tonight off three straight no-decisions (team is 1-2), lasting only 13.1 innings. Wainwright was one of the NL's top starters from 2009-14, winning 19 or 20 games FOUR times during that stretch (note: he did not pitch at all in 2011). He was limited by injury to just eight starts in 2018 but he's making his 28th start of 2019 in this one. Wainwright has struggled all season on the road (6.03 ERA in 14 outings) but in his 13 home starts, he owns a 2.43 ERA.

Wainwright is a veteran who is well-familiar with the Brewers, posting an impressive 2.57 ERA in 34 career starts (Cards are 22-12). I'm backing the vet here in the first contest of this HUGE 3-game series, against the virtually unknown (and untested) Houser. What's more, the Brewers will play the rest of the season without last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (broken kneecap). Yelich leads the team in BA (.329), HRs (44) and RBI (97).

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET.

New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets lost SIX in a row from Aug 23-29, as their wild card hopes took a big hit. In fact, the Mets were four games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card in the NL on Sunday, after losing for the 10th time in 15 road games. But, New York has regrouped by outscoring Arizona 26-4 during a four-game sweep Mon-Thu. Thursday's 11-1 victory moved the Mets within just TWO games of the Cubs and Milwaukee, teams significantly weakened by the respective losses of Javier Baez and Christian Yelich over the last few days. The Dodgers have no such concerns about qualifying for the playoffs, as they clinching their SEVENTH straight NL West crown on Tuesday. 95-93 Los Angeles trails the New York Yankees by two games for the best record in the majors and extended its lead over Atlanta for the best mark in the NL to four games following Thursday's 4-2 win over Baltimore.

Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 3.06 ERA) and Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 4.06 ERA) will square off Friday night at Citi Field. Kershaw was 13-2 (2.71 ERA) through his first 22 starts in 2019 (Dodgers were 18-4!) but the three-time Cy Young winner has lost THREE in a row, while posting an 'ugly' a 6.19 ERA. Kershaw is coming off a start last Friday against San Francisco, after pitching a season-low four innings Friday. The three-start losing streak is his first since June 17-27, 2015. Syndergaard has had a strange year. Here's an example. He won 7-3 at Washington on Sep 2, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits and striking out 10. However, in his previous start, he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in just three innings of a 10-7 home loss to the Cubs. He then followed his outstanding Sep 2 effort vs the Nats, by lasting just five innings and allowing four ERs in taking a no-decision as the Mets loss at home to the Phillies on Sep 8.

Can the Mets continue their recent surge? I sure don't trust Syndergaard, who recently made waves by publicly requesting to pitch to backup catchers Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera instead of Wilson Ramos. Syndergaard's ERA fell to 5.09 ERA in 15 starts with Ramos following Sunday's loss to Philadelphia but  manager Mickey Callaway intends to stick with his starting catcher. Think this is a positive situation? Getting back to Kershaw, the Mets seem like the perfect "bounce-back" opponent, as he's 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA over 16 career starts vs the Mets (Dodgers are 14-2, an 88% winning situation).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:15 ET.

Dallas Keuchel pitched six solid innings and three relievers held the lead in a 3-1 Atlanta victory Wednesday in Philadelphia. The team's 19-4 run the last 23 games has pushed Atlanta's lead to 9 1/2 games over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. As for the Phillies, they have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (28-27) but have to consider themselves lucky that they are still in the wild card hunt. At 75-70, Philadelphia is tied with the Mets (and a half-game ahead of Arizona), TWO games back of Chicago and Milwaukee (Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL's second wild card spot).

Atlanta goes for the series win tonight, having won two of the first three games.Julio Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves, while the Phillies counter with lefty Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.20 ERA).Teheran continued Atlanta’s recent run of excellent starting pitching by holding Washington to one run on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts over six innings this past Saturday in a 5-4 Atlanta win. He has allowed just three ERs across 25 innings in his last four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA and a .167 opponents batting average by allowing just 14 hits allowed in that span.

Phily picked up Smyly after Texas released him and one had to wonder why. Smyly had gone 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 13 games (nine starts) with Texas before being released,. However, the lefty signed with the Phillies on July 21 and is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA in nine starts (team is 7-2). Smyly has pitched VERY well in two September starts, allowing just one run on eight hits with 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings (0.73 ERA) while beating Cincinnati and the New York Mets.

Looking a little closer at Smyly's record with Philly and one sees that the team is 5-0 in his road starts (2.60 ERA) but 2-2 in his home starts (5.56 ERA). That hardly bodes well against an Atlanta team which is 16-7 vs lefties in night games this season, including 8-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won 16 of Teheran's last 23 starts, giving him a 19-11 record in team starts on the season (+$702 moneyline mark ranks 15th-best). While he's pitched slightly better at home on the season, let me note that in his last FIVE road starts (going back to June 29), he's posted a 2.17 ERA. The Braves have safely put away the NL East title but the team's recent hot steak has them just THREE game back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record (and homefield advantage). Atlanta wins AGAIN!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Arz D'backs at 1:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 9-0 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped the first three of this four-game series with the Mets, as well as FOUR in a row, overall. The Mets can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 13-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 3 1/2 games over the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the No. 2 spot. Chicago and Milwaukee are two games up on Philadelphia and New York, with Arizona 2 1/2 games back.

The Mets go for the four-game home sweep, as Arizona sends rookie Alex Young (7-3, 3.38 ERA) to the mound up against New York's Marcus Stroman (7-13, 3.42 ERA). Young posted a franchise rookie record with 12 strikeouts while scattering two hits over eight innings in Saturday's 2-0 win versus Cincinnati. The D'backs haven't won since! Young has been great for Arizona and he's thrived on the road. His ERA of 2.29 is more than two full runs lower than his home ERA (4.60), plus his road WHIP is .096 and BAA checks in at .194. The Mets were thrilled to trade for Stroman before the trade deadline but he's been a disappointment. The Mets did win his first four starts with the Mets but he pitched a modest 19.2 innings in those four outings, while posting a 5.1`2 ERA. However, his so-so pitching  (I'm being VERY kind here) has caught up to him, as the Mets have lost his last three starts (6.43 ERA).

Young has never opposed the Mets, while Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in just two career starts against the Diamondbacks. "Big game" for both teams, as time is clearly running out and there is room for just ONE of five teams in this battle for the second wild card spot. I want the red-hot rookie, over the struggling veteran, as the D'backs avoid the four-game sweep.

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 10:10 ET.

Kris Bryant hit a pair of two-run HRs and Jason Heyward also homered twice and drove in three runs for the Cubs, who rallied from a 6-2 deficit in the third inning to tie it at 8-all in the 8th inning. However, with the bases load in the bottom of the 10th, the Cubs gave up a four-pitch walk which allowed the Padres to win 9-8. The loss followed a 10-2 Chicago win on Monday. The Cubs' fourth loss in their last five games cut into their lead in the race for the National League's second wild card. Milwaukee is just one game back, Philadelphia is two games behind Chicago plus  Arizona is  2 1/2 games back playing at New York (Mets are three games back!). As for the 67-77 Padres, they will finish with a losing record for the NINTH straight season.

Tonight's pitching matchup features veteran Cole Hamels (7-6. 3.95 ERA) and rookie Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA). Hamels left his June 28 start after one inningbecause of a strained left oblique. He owned a 2.98 ERA over 17 appearances at the time. He would miss FIVE weeks and in seven starts since returning to the rotation, he 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA (Cubs are 3-4). Paddack started strong in 2019, going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA thru May 20 (San Diego was 7-2 in his nine starts). However, the season would take a toll on the 23-year-old, who won just THREE times in his next 13 starts. However, he has rebounded in his last two starts, allowing just one run on nine hits while registering 16 strikeouts over 12.1 innings in a win over San Francisco a no-decision against Arizona.

Yes, the Cubs have struggled all season on the road (just 30-43) but Chicago is still "right in" the wild card race. Chicago hitters have battered San Diehgo pitchers for 18 runs on 24 hits in the first two games of this series and I wouldn't want to be Paddack in this one. As for Hamels, the veteran (and former World Series MVP) knows more than just a little about pitching in big games. He's got an outstanding 9-2 (2.45 ERA) in 18 career starts against the Padres, with his teams going 14-4. What's more, Hamels grew up 25 miles away from Petco Park and has thrived in his returns to his hometown ballpark, where he is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine outings at the downtown San Diego stadium. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the Cin Reds at 10:10 ET.

The Seattle Mariners opened September with an 11-3 win at Texas, before losing the final SIX contests of their 2-8 road trip. Seattle began its six-game homestand on Tuesday by ending that six-game losing streak,when Kyle Seager hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning to give the Mariners a 4-3 win. Kyle Lewis hit a solo shot in his major-league debut and Dylan Moore also went homered, as THREE of the Mariners' four hits were home runs. Tuesday marked the first contest of a nine-game road trip for the Reds, who fell to 27-43 on the road in 2019.

Wednesday's pitching matchup features Sonny Gray (10-6, 2.75 ERA) and Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.37 ERA). Gray struggled during his 1 1/2-year tenure with the New York Yankees but after a very poor start with the Reds (0-4 with a 4.15 ERA over his first NINE starts of 2019 with the Reds going 3-6), he's reverted back to the form he displayed with Oakland that made him one of MLB's most promising pitchers. Gray is 10-2 over his last 19 starts (Reds are 15-4), allowing three ERs or less in 17 of those starts. He posted an 0.74 ERA in six August starts and then allowed one ER over six innings of a 4-3 win in his first start of September. Gonzales has done a credible job pitching for the sad-sack Mariners, but he has been ineffective since recording his career-high 14th victory back on Aug 25. He's surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits over just 11 innings in his last two starts (7.36 ERA).

Gray is just 'ON FIRE' and he has an strong history against the Mariners (remember, he started with the A's), posting a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts. Gonzales is in "over his head" here and it hardly helps that he's pitching for a team which hasn't posted consecutive wins in THREE weeks (since Aug 17-20).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 3-2 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped THREE in a row. The Mets, who are responsible for Arizona's last two losses, can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 12-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 2 1/2 games and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, one game up on Milwaukee, two up on Philadelphia,  2 1/2 up on Arizona and three up on New York.

The third contest of this critical four-game series features a pair of lefty starters, Robbie Ray (12-7, 4.03 ERA) and Steven Matz (9-8, 4.00 ERA). Ray went just 13-27 in his first two seasons with Arizona (2015 & '16) but then went 15-5 (2.89 ERA) in 2017, as Arizona went 20-8 (+$1,166) in all his starts (3rd-best ML mark that season). However, he was just 6-2 over 24 starts in 2018, as Arizona went 11-13. Ray has been up and down in 2018 plus Ray missed 10 days with a back injury in August. He was removed from his most recent outing (allowed 3 ERs in 4.1 innings on Sep 6) with a blister on his left middle finger. Reportedly, he's fine (we'll see). We do know that he owns 2-0 record with an 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets (teams are 3-1).

Matz suffered through a brutal June, as the Mets lost FIVE of his six starts (76.36 ERA). He was sent to the bullpen (and made two relief appearances) to open July but returned to the rotation after the All Star break. He's been excellent save ONE start, since. Matz has allowed two ERs or less in NINE of his 10 second-half starts, including allowing just six ERs over 33.2 innings (1.60 ERA) in five home starts in that stretch. That's mirrors what been the case for Matz' 2019 season. He owns a 6.08 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .291 BAA in road games in 2019 but a 2.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .228 BAA in home games.

I had the Mets last night and "the situation" is just right for them to win again, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets opened a four-game home series with the D'backs last night just 11-14 since Aug 11. As for Arizona, when the the Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs had "come alive," with 11 wins in their last 13 games after that 3-7 slump. New York rookie Pete Alonso hit a pair of solo HRs last night (he leads all of MLB with 47) as the Mets took the series opener, 3-1. It was just New York's SIXTH victory in its last 16 contests, while Arizona has now dropped back-to-back outings after winning five in a row and 11 of its previous 12. The wild card standings look like this. The Nats own the No. 1 spot and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, two games up on Milwaukee, 2 1/2 up on Arizona, three up on Philadelphia and four up on New York.

Zac Gallen (3-4, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound tonight for the D'backs, opposed by the Mets' Zack Wheeler (10-7, 4.33 ERA). Gallen lost a no-hit bid in the seventh inning and exited after allowing just that single over seven scoreless innings last Wednesday in a 4-1 victory against San Diego. The 24-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six starts since being acquired from Miami (D'backs are 5-1). Gallen didn't factor into the decision in his only start against the Mets back on July 13, when, as a member of the Miami Marlins, he allowed two runs over five innings in Miami's 4-2 loss.

Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler allowed just one run in five innings of an 8-4 win at Washington on Wednesday, improving to 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 6-2 in those eight starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in all six of those team wins (note: both losses came against the Braves!).

There's nothing bad to say about Gallen's efforts since coming to Arizona but there could be a "let down" off his terrific last outing (see above for a reminder). As for Wheeler, since coming off the DL he's NOT been up to the challenge of pitching against the Braves (11 IP / 18 hits / 10 ERs / 8.18 ERA) but in his other six starts, he's posted a 1.98 ERA. Wheeler's had good success vs Arizona in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (Mets are 4-2). Situation is "just right" to play the Mets!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

The 2019 MLB regular season has just THREE weeks left and the 69-74 Giants not only need to make up 7 1/2 games in order to earn the second wild-card playoff berth in the National League but in order to do so, they would need to pass FIVE other teams. The 62-81 Pirates have no such concerns, as their 7-38 start out of the All Star break took them out of any wild card aspirations by August (currently sit 14 1/2 games  back).  However, the teams open a four-game series tonight in San Francisco with something in common. Both Pittsburgh and San Francisco each recorded a total of just ONE run over the weekend. The Pirates lost 10-1 to the Cardinals on Saturday, and then managed only five hits in a 2-0 setback on Sunday.The Giants eked out a 1-0 victory over the LA Dodgers on Saturday, before getting blanked 5-0 in the finale of that three-game series on Sunday.

Monday's pitching matchup will feature Trevor Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81 ERA). The Pirates won Williams' first FOUR starts (2.59 ERA) but he enters this start of 2019 with a 5.16 ERA and a .282 BAA..However, Williams posted his third consecutive quality start by allowing two ERs in six innings of Pittsburgh's 6-5 win over Miami this past Wednesday. He has 12 strikeouts against two walks while allowing just one HR during this solid three-start stretch (he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA / team is 3-0).

As for Bumgarner, after a 1-4 (4.30 ERA) start through six outings (team was just 1-5), the three-time World Series champ has seen the Giants go 18-6 in his last 24 starts, as he allowed three ERs or less 18 times. The Giants won Bumgarner's last start 9-8 but he pitched poorly at St Louis, allowing six ERs over five innings. Here's the bottom line with him in 2019. He's got a 5.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .280 BAA on the road but a 2.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .213 BAA at home.

The Giants postseason hopes may be all but 'dead,' but Bumgarner has been a steady money-maker since the beginning of May (see above). That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Red Sox bested the Yankees 6-1 on Friday (beating NY ace German) but the Yankees won 5-1 on Saturday and then again 10-5 last night on ESPN, homering THREE times. New York now has 268 HRs in 2019, eclipsing the team single-season home run record it set just last year. The Yankees look to win win their fifth consecutive series by taking tonight's series finale (New York hasn't lost a series since being swept in Oakland from Aug.20-22.). The Yankees are 94-50, tied with the Astros for the AL's best record, with both teams ahead of the NL's 93-52 Dodgers (by 1 1/2 games) for MLB's best overall record. The defending champion Red Sox are 76-67 and with just 19 games remaining, are all but eliminated from serious wild card consideration (sit EIGHT games back of the second wild card spot).

It's a 'battle' of red-hot lefties tonight in Fenway, as James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA square off. Paxton's last start in Fenway came back on July 26, when he was ripped for seven ERs in just four innings of a 10-5 loss. A the time, he was 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA. However, he hasn't lost since, winning SEVEN consecutive starts to match the career-high victory total he registered in 2017 with Seattle (12-5, 2.98 ERA). Paxton is coming off an outstanding outing against Texas on Tuesday in which he allowed one hit and one walk while recording a season high-tying 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings of a 10-1 win. He's got a 2.98 ERA in his seven-game winning streak and he's 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against the Red Sox (teams are 5-2).

Rodriguez is also coming off a scoreless effort, a seven-inning 6-2 victory over Minnesota on Wednesday in which he scattered five hits and issued four walks while registering eight strikeouts en route to extending his winning streak to four starts. Rodriguezlast lost opposite Paxton on Aug 2, when he surrendered four runs on five hits and a season-high six walks in 6.2 frames of 4-2 New York win. That defeat dropped Rodriguez to 6-5 with a 4.03 ERA in 17 career games (15 starts / teams are 8-7) vs New York.

Yes, Boston is basically done for the season but this contest marks its FINAL game of 2019 against the hated Yankees. In a year in which Sale has imploded and Price has been on and off the DL, Rodriguez has become Boston's 'ace.' Undoubtedly, he's been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-7 (+$1,428), which is the No. 1 mark among starters. Rodriguez is 8-1 in 14 Fenway starts, with Boston going 12-2. This is his "playoff game" and I'm betting he delivers the "W!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Was Nats at 1:20 ET.

Washington Nationals lost their FIFTH straight game back on May 23 and sat 19-31. However, the Nats then went on a 56-27 run to get them withing 'shouting distance' of the Braves in the NL East plus put them in prime position in the NL wild card race. However, the Nats opened the week by dropping TWO of three to the Mets in Washington and they now have lost the first three of a four-game series in Atlanta against the Braves. Atlanta's 5-4 win on Saturday marked a season-best NINTH straight, while the Braves also set a modern-day franchise mark with their 13th consecutive home victory. The 89-54 Braves now lead the 78-63 Nats by 10 games in the division and their magic number to clinch the NL East is 11. The Nationals still own the No. 1 wild card spot but their margin over the Cubs is just two games, while the Nats are only 3 1/2 games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line!'

Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Mike Soroka (11-3, 2.53 ERA) for Atlanta. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August  22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer was limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests. Scherzer's third start back was Tuesday against the Mets, when he gave up four runs on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in six innings. However, there was good news, as he reached 90 pitches.

Soroka's had quite a rookie season, as his 2.53 ERA is third-best in MLB and the Braves have gone 17-8 in his starts. Looking closer, we find that while's he's been terrific on the road, he's has problems here at SunTrust Park. Soroka owns a 1.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .203 BAA on the road, while his ERA balloons to 4.02 at home, with his WHIP climbing to 1.32 and his BAA a to .275. The Braves are due to lose sometime and I think this is the perfect spot. True, they've won the first three games of this series but the scores have been 4-2, 4-3 and 5-4. The Nats have made a terrific turnaround in 2019 but it's "slipping away." They enter on a four-game slide, the team's longest since Washington lost FIVE in a row May 19-23, leaving them 19-31 on the season (see above). Scherzer is a true ace and "gets the job done against a rookie struggling in his home park.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET.

When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Arizona began this week with a three-game home sweep of the Padres and have then opened a seven-game road trip with wins in the first two of a three-game series this weekend in Cincinnati. 75-67 Arizona now looks to finish off a road sweep of the Reds on Sunday afternoon, having won FIVE in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests to move within 1 1/2 games of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s second wild card. The 66-77 Reds are 'buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) and the team's only role the rest of September will be as a "spoiler."

Arizona sends Mike Leake (11-10, 4.71 ERA) to the mound, while Cincy counters with Anthony DeSclafani (9-8, 4.10 ERA).Leake has earned victories in his last two starts, allowing six ERs over 13.2 innings (3.95 ERA). However, he was winless in his first four outings (0-2 / team was 1-3 / Leake's ERA was an 'ugly' 8.02) with Arizona, after going 9-8 in 22 starts (Mariners were 11-11) with a 4.27 ERA while with Seattle. I'm not quite sure what Arizona thought it was getting with Leake? DeSclafani gave up just three hits in seven innings (with 8 Ks) against Philadelphia on Monday but two of the three hits were HRs, as he took the 7-1 loss (he allowed four ERs). That game followed him allowing just two ERs in his previous three starts over innings 18 innings (1.00 ERA and 20 Ks). The 29-year-old has 147 strikeouts over 142.2 innings on the season but has served up a career-most 27 HRs in 27 starts this season.

Here's the rub. No doubt Arizona is on a roll but why trust Leake and his 4.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .290 BAA on the entire season? In his six starts with Arizona, his ERA is 6.423, his WHIP is 1.54 and his BAA against is .338 Want more? Yes, he hasn't faced the Reds since pitching for St Louis in 2017 but he's is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight career starts against them, with his teams going 0-8 (that's a 100% "go-against!). DeScalfani is good enough to help Cincy avoid the sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 7:10 ET.

When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Wednesday's 4-1 victory over San Diego completed a three-game sweep of San Diego and the D'backs open a seven-game road tripwith NINE wins in their last 10 contests. Arizona begins it trip with three-games this weekend in Cincinnati against the Reds.The 66-75  Reds are buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) but did Arizona a favor by winning its second straight contest on Thursday (4-3 in 11 innings) against the Phillies, to salvage a four-game split with wild-card hopeful Philadelphia. The 73-67 D-backs are now a half-game ahead of the Philllies, trailing the Cubs by 3 1/2 games in the 'battle' for the NL's second wild card spot.

Taking the mound Friday night will be Robbie Ray (12-7, 3.97 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.72 ERA). Ray missed 10 days with a back injury, but returned Aug 25 at Milwaukee to earn a 5-2 win (pitched a scoreless five innings). However, he struggled in his second start since this past Saturday at home vs the Dodgers. He allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings but was able to claim a win in Arizona's 6-5 victory. Ray is 7-1 in 10 starts since the start of July, with the D'backs winning EIGHT of the 10.

Mahle made his first big-league start since July 19 last Sunday at St Louis. He was placed on the DL after that July 19 start. He returned Sunday (after making three minor league starts) with the team having gone 4-15 in his 19 previous starts this season and his minus-$1,038 moneyline mark was the third-worst among all starters. In particular, he was 0-8 with a 5.58 ERA and .300 BAA in 11 road starts, with the Reds going 0-11. Surprisingly, Mahle allowed just one ER on two hits in 6.1 innings on Sunday at St Louis. He left with a 3-1 lead but the bullpen gave up single runs in each of the last three innings and the Cardinals won 4-3. And so it goes for him...Reds are 4-16 in his 20 starts, giving him MLB's 3rd-worst moneyline mark (-$1,138)

Mahle has been better here at home but the fact remains that he is in search of his first win since May 31, having gone 0-5 with a 5.32 ERA in his past nine starts (Reds are 1-8 in those starts). As noted above, Ray comes in pitching well since the start of July and he's fared better on the road than at Chase Field, limiting the opposition to a .228 BAA away from home. The Diamondbacks averaged 7.8 runs in Ray's five August starts and expect Arizona to make it 10 wins in its last 11 here against the Reds and the "not ready for primetime" Mahle.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies ended last weekend with a Sunday victory against the New York Mets and then extended their winning streak to three games with a pair of lopsided victories at Cincinnati Monday and Tuesday. However, the tables quickly turned, as the Reds bested the Phils 8-5 on Wednesday and then 4-3 (11 inn.) on Thursday afternoon, as Philly had to settle for a four-game split versus the Reds. The 72-67 Phillies are now FOUR games back of the second wild card spot in the NL and find the D'backs a half-game closer to the Cubs than they are. Philadelphia comes to Citi Field for a three-game series with the Mets, who after taking TWO of three at Washington, are 71-68 and tied with the Brewers. Both teams are just ONE game back of the Phillies but are FIVE back of the Cubs

Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.33 ERA) will get the ball for Philly, opposed by the Mets' Steven Matz (9-8. 4.04 ERA). Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin turned in his best start in nearly three months this past Sunday night, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings of a no-decision against the Mets (Phils avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-2 win). Matz improved to 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts since returning to the rotation right after the All Star break. Here's the deal with Matz in 2019. He's been awful on the  road (6.08 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / .291 BAA) and very good at home (2.01 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / .224 BAA).

The Phillies have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (just 25-24), while the Mets are 25-12 in their last 37 games, although just 4-8 in their last 12.That said, the Mets showed everyone something in Wednesday's 8-4 afternoon win at Washington, after they had lost the night before when they blew a SIX-run lead in the ninth inning! Mets take this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Minnesota Twins held an 11 1/2 game lead in the AL Central in early June but the Indians caught and passed them by July 24th. However, the Twins are again pulling away in the AL Central. Surging Minnesota has won NINE of 10 to open a 6 1/2-game over the Indians, losers of four of their last five. Minnesota had built a six-run lead last night but had to hold on for a 6-5 victory last night at Fenway, keeping the Red Sox 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in the AL.

The three-game series continues tonight with Jose Berríos (11-7, 3.57 ERA) taking on Eduardo Rodriguez (16-5, 3.97 ERA). Many consider Berrios to be Minnesota's ace but he just earned his first victory in nearly a month last Thursday with a quality start at the Chicago White Sox, striking out eight and giving up three runs seven hits over six innings in a 10-5 win. That outing ended an awful four-start stretch from Aug 6-23 in which he allowed 20 ERs on 32 hits (including six HRs over 21.1 innings (Berrios went 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and the Twins lost three of the four).

With Sale and Price hurt (both have been HUGE underachievers in 2019, as well), Rodriguez has been a staff mainstay. Rodriguez labored at Colorado last Wednesday but won his third straight start despite lasting only five innings and allowing three runs on nine hits over five innings (Boston won 7-4). Rodriguez has been Boston's biggest money-maker for the SECOND straight year. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 21-7 (+$1,328), which is the second-best mark among starters.

The defending champs are clearly 'on the ropes,' 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with just 22 games remaining. Boston has two more games with Minnesota here and then hosts the Yankees for four games at Fenway Fri-Sun (doubleheader set for Sat). The Red Sox almost have to win FOUR of those six to have any chance of staying in the wild card chase. Yes, Boston is only 34-35 at home but the Red Sox are averaging 5.93 RPG at Fenway. NEEDING a win, it's best to have your biggest "money-maker" on the mound. That's the case here for Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nationals at 1:05 ET.

The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span . However, after last night's almost unbelievable 11-10 loss, the Mets are just 9-12 since Aug 11 (3-8 their last 11), leaving them FIVE games back of the NL's second wild card spot (THREE teams are between them and the Cubs). I'm sure most have heard about Tuesday's Mets/Nats game. For those who haven't, here's what STATS reported. Washington is the first team to allow five or more runs in the top of the ninth and get even more in the bottom of the inning for a walk-off win since the Red Sox back on June 18, 1962, against the Washington Senators. Mets manager Mickey Callaway lifted reliever Seth Lugo after he pitched a perfect eighth inning. Lugo routinely gets six outs per outing, but Callaway thought the lead was safe enough to go deeper into the bullpen. OOOPS! The Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets but rebounded with 11 runs on 15 hits last night.

The rubber match of the three-game series goes Wednesday afternoon with Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.41 ERA) taking on Anibal Sanchez (8-6, 3.80 ERA). Wheeler settled for a third straight no-decision on Friday despite allowing only one over six innings at Philadelphia (Mets won 11-5). Wheeler is well thought of but he remains nothing more than a .500 pitcher. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against the Nationals this season (team is 1-3) and enters this contest 4-10 with a 5.17 ERA in 17 career starts against Washington (Mets are 6-11).

Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he's returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's recent surge. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts, going 8-0 (3.21 ERA) with the Nats going 11-5. Sanchez has allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. Sanchez had a rare poor start on Aug 17 but has bounced back strong in his last two, allowing just four hits and three ERs over 13.1 innings (2.03 ERA).

One wonders just how the slumping Mets can regroup so quickly after last night's crushing loss. As for the Nats, they are 59-28 (.678) since that 19-31 start and will enter this contest having won 20 of their last 26 games. Expect Washington to ride the positive 'mojo' of that seven-run ninth inning into Wednesday afternoon's series finale against the visiting Mets, as Sanchez stays unbeaten through 17 starts. The Nats win again and drive another 'stake' into New York's ' playoff heart.'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET.

Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. However, Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets. Washington's 7-3 loss ended the team's four-game winning streak in which the Nats had scored 31 times (7.75 RPG). For the Mets, they won for just the THIRD time in 10 contests and find themselves tied with the 70-67 Brewers, a half-game back of Arizona, 1 1/2 games back of Philadelphia and most importantly, FOUR games back of the Cubs (owners of the NL's second wild card spot).

The middle game of this three-games series tonight will feature a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom (8-8, 2.66 ERA) and Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.46 ERA). Jacob deGrom won last year's NL Cy young award, while Max Scherzer was the 2016 and 2017 Cy Young winner in the NL. DeGrom won last year's award despite going just 10-9 (1.70 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / .196 BAA). It's been a second straight year of excellent pitching numbers for deGrom (1.02 WHIP and .214 BAA) but again, he's just 8-8 and more importantly, the Mets are 10-17 in his starts, as his moneyline mark of minus-$1,829 is the SECOND-worst among all starters in 2019. DeGrom saw his nine-game unbeaten streak end this past Thursday when he allowed four runs on five hits over seven innings of a 4-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. That said, while deGrom may have been unbeaten in that nine-game stretch (from July 5-Aug 23) with a 1.22 ERA, the Mets were just 5-4 in that span.

Scherzer's had similar problems to deGrom in 2019, pitching well but lacking run support. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer again landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August 22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer has been limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests.

So what we have here is two of MLB's best pitchers who have pitched in "hard-luck" for most of the season (for deGrom, it's been two straight years). However, the edge goes to the Nats, who are 58-28 (.674) since May 24. In contrast, we have the Mets. They put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot on. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets are just 9-11 since Aug 11 (3-7 their last 10) and I'll back Scherzer and the Nats in this one.

Good luck...Larry