Cappers Sports Picks

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

I like Michael Wacha to get the better of Gio Gonzalez this evening.

Gonzalez (7-2, 2.87 ERA) gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Monday. The southpaw labored through the performance, needing 113 pitches to get through the six frames. 

While he’s 6-1 on the road this year, he owns a poor 4.06 ERA away from friendly confines.

Wacha (4-3, 4.50) gave up one run off five hits and one walk over six innings in a win over Cincinnati on Monday, also going on to strike out five. After a shaky stretch, Wacha looked a lot better in this one and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his very respectable 4-1, 3.26 record/ERA in St. Louis.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is interestingly just 5-6 (-4 units) this year when playing on a Saturday, while St. Louis is 6-5 (+1.3 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, but I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (6-5, 5.15 ERA) who gave up six runs off nine hits over six innings against Cincinnati on Sunday. Roark has now been blasted for 19 earned runs over his last 13.2 innings of work and owns a pedestrian 4.95 ERA on the road this year.

Mike Leake (5-6, 3.12) comes in off a no-decision to Pittsburgh on Sunday, giving up three runs off six hits while striking out two over six innings. 

Despite his 1-4 record at home, Leake does own a respectable 3.44 ERA in St. Louis (and a 2.98 ERA in all “night” games).

I think Leake and the Cardinals could easily be much larger favs in this spot. Roark is steadily regressing and all signs point to another meltdown here. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

These veteran starters are enjoying resurgent campaigns, but ultimately I think that home field advantage will prove to be a major factor in the final outcome.

Ervin Santana (10-4, 2.80 ERA) went six scoreless against the Tribe on Sunday. Previous to that though Santana had allowed 11 runs over two starts. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about Santana, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Jason Vargas has the advantage at home today.

Vargas (11-3, 2.29) gave up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over seven innings in a win over Toronto on Saturday. Vargas has won six straight decisions and is 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 1-3 (-2.2 units) in its last four against southpaws, while KC is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (0-1, 4.50 ERA) who made his debut for the Red Sox on Sunday, giving up three runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings against LA on Sunday. 

It was a decent first outing for Fister. Note that he was 9-6 with a pedestrian 4.61 ERA on the road last year.

The visitors counter with Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.89) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out six over seven innings in a loss to KC on Saturday. 

Estrada had looked shaky before this latest decent effort, but he has the pedigree and track record to continue to progress as the season reaches the half-way point.

Estrada has struggled at times this season and looked brilliant in others and while he’s been far from perfect, I still believe he should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. I think Fister takes a step back in his second startl lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

A couple of volatile hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that “home field advantage” can be overlooked in this spot. 

The visitors hand the ball to Seth Lugo (2-1, 3.72 ERA) who earned a win against San Francisco is in his last start Friday despite giving up four runs off seven hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work. 

Lugo is in the starting rotation out of necessity, but owns a poor 6.35 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Jose Urena (6-3, 3.33) actually comes in off a great outing against Chicago on Friday, giving up zero runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a victory. 

Urena has now given up just three runs over his last 18 innings spanning three starts and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home by going 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA.

New York will continue to struggle until it can get some of its starting rotation back. Urena and the Marlins take advantage here and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price.

Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (5-4, 3.50 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Braves on Friday. Nelson now has a 68/14 K/W ratio over 58.1 innings over his last nine outings to go along with a 2.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Homer Bailey (0-1, 43.20) who was annihilated in his first start back to the rotation, allowing eight runs off six hits and three walks while striking out two over just 1.2 innings in a loss to Washington Saturday. 

I don’t think there is any need to overthink this one. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and while Nelson has hardly been perfect this year, he’s still putting together one of the strongest campaigns of his career. 

All things considered, I think Nelson and the Brewers offer great value in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I played the Pirates on Wednesday and I think this is a matchup which favors the home side as well on Thursday.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (5-4, 3.75 ERA) who earned a win Friday against Baltimore despite giving up five runs off eight hits over six innings. Archer has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.17 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.33) who gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against St. Louis on Friday. To go along with his highly respectable 3.33 ERA, Taillon also sports a sharp 46/18 K/W over 51.1 innings of work.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess a starter is “recent performance.” All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on Taillon and the home side in this one.

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75 ERA) is clearly not the same pitcher he was three years ago. Wainwright comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off two hits and two walks over seven innings on Friday in what turned out to be a no-decision in a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh. 

Wainwright has been hit or miss all year, but he’s been at his absolute worst on the raod, going 2-4 with an atrocious 9.48 ERA. 

Zack Godley (3-1, 2.53) gave up three runs off four hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Rockies on Thursday. Considering the game was at Coors, clearly his performance was an absolute gem. 

To go along with his very respectable 2.53 ERA, Godley also sports a tiny 1.00 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 through nine starts and is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out that the Cardinals are just 27-31 (-9.9 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Arizona is 39-20 (+18.4 units) against right-handed starters. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout WInner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Blake Snell got destroyed in the majors over the first two months and was sent to the minors. Snell did well in Triple-A and is now back in the bigs for his first start since. 

Ivan Nova on the other hand has been very solid from the get-go and I think his long-term consistency and true dominance in front of the home town crowd will ultimately prove to be the difference today.

Snell (0-4, 4.71 ERA) posted a 2.66 ERA in five wins in Triple-A, but there’s no denying his struggles at the major league level, where he owns a poor 1.62 WHIP so far.

Nova (7-5, 3.05) hasn’t been perfect this year, but “duds” have been few and far between. That said, he’ll definitely be looking to get back on track after allowing four runs while striking out five in a loss to the Brewers on Thursday. 

Nova has to be feeling pretty confident here though, to go along with his 1.08 WHIP, he’s also 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in Pittsburgh. 

I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 6-13 (-7.4 units) in all road games this year when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 9-4 (+3.4 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I don’t think that “home field advantage” can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (0-2, 1.96 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Wednesday. Newcomb has looked decent in his three starts this year, but his ERA is unsustainable given his pedestrian 13/7 K/W ratio spanning 18.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (6-6, 4.95), who comes in off a gem against the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while also striking out six. Chacin has now posted three straight quality starts and note that he’s a sparkling 4-1 with a minuscule 1.72 ERA at home so far this year.

I think these road/home performance trends carry over here, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:10 EST).

New York almost blew a 6-1 lead in the bottom of the night last night, but held on for the 6-5 win. I think “The Evil Empire” also has an advantage on the mound tonight and I look for it to find a way to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done.

Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30 ERA) most recently gave up five earned runs over six innings while striking out five in a loss to the Angels on Thursday. Severino has looked a little shaky over his last two starts, but note that he’s a sparkling 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69) who went 6.2 scoreless innings while stirking out nine in a win over the Twins on Thursday. Quintana has looked better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a ballooned 5.94 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

I’ll also point out that the Yankees are already 23-16 (+3.2 units) this season following a victory, while Chicago is only 16-25 (-3.9 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NL SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Robert Gsellman is only in the Mets starting rotation because of massive injury to the unit.

Gsellman (5-5, 6.04 ERA) would give up eight runs (seven of them earned), off nine hits and three walks over 4.1 innings to the Dodgers on Tuesday. The struggling right-hander would allow four home runs in that one as well. 

Unfortunatley for Gsellman, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s a horrible 2-2 with a ballooned 7.71 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

Dan Straily (5-4, 3.43) hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid and he comes in off a gem against Washignton on Wednesday, allowing one run off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings.

Straily has now given up three free passes over his last five starts and note that he owns a solid 2.17 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 11-13 (-2 units) in June, while Miami is 13-10 (+4.8 units) overall this month.

These starters and teams are moving in opposite directions. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but Kevin Gausman has been horrible on the road, while Joe Biagini has been pretty good in front of the home town crowd this season. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting these road/home performance trends to carry over here.

Gausman (3-7, 6.47 ERA) comes in off perhaps his best start of the 2017 campaign, allowing three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out nine in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. To go along with his unsightly 6.47 ERA, Gausman also owns a poor 1.88 WHIP. And note that he’s posted a deplorable 1-4, 9.00 ERA on the road so far.

Biagini (2-6, 4.45) comes in off a 7-5 win over Texas on Wednesday, allowing four runs off seven hits while walking five over six innings of work. The performance snapped a four-game losing streak. Note that Biagini owns a highly repsectable 2.93 ERA in Toronto this year.

Both starters and each of these teams have struggled this year. However, Gausman’s complete ineptitude on the road is the difference maker in this one. Lay the price with confidence, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST).

The Giants will be desperate here, they’ve lost five in a row and nine of their last ten.

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (5-3, 3.92 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks over six frames in a 4-3 win over Arizona on Tuesday. 

It was the first time that Marquez has made it through six innings though since May 23rd and note that if he’s had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play in all “night” contests, going a poor 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA.

The home side counters with Jeff Samrdzija (2-9, 4.74) who gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out eight in a no-decision to Atlanta on Wednesday. It was his third quality start in his last four trips to the hill. 

Samardzija is quietly flying under the radar right now as he owns a ridiculous 82/4 K/W raito over his last 74.1 innings of work. 

I’ll point out that Colorado is just 2-6 (-4.8 units) this year after allowing ten runs or more, while San Francisco is interestingly, 6-3 (+5.2 units) when playing on a Monday.

I think the hungry home side finally gives Samardzija some support. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

8* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I think Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting home side have a clear advantage tonight.

The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.19 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks while striking out four over four innings in a no-decision to San Diego on Wednesday. Butler took advantage of a favorable matchup in that one, but has been pretty pedestrian overall in a starters role with a 4.19 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 38.2 innings. 

Butler is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home, but only 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA on the road.

Gonzalez (7-1, 2.96) gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a 12-3 win over Miami on Tuesday. The southpaw threw 71 of his 101 pitches for strikes and won his fourth straight decision and posted his fifth straight quality start. 

Gonzalez is 6-1 with a 4.06 ERA on the road and is 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 13-17 (-8.4 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while Washington is 9-5 (+3.4 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (2-6, 5.46 ERA) who has for the most part been a disater this year. While he does come in off a win against Milwaukeeon Tuesday, he’s still just 2-6 with a ballooned 6.95 ERA in all “night” games. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (5-6, 3.03), who has been far from perfect this season, but who has been much more consistent that Kuhl. Leake also comes in off a gem, giving up one run off three hits and two walks over six innings. Leake owns a 3.30 ERA at home and 2.82 ERA in all “night” contests.

I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 14-18 (-4.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while St. Louis is 19-14 (+1.6 units) against teams with losing records. 

After yesterday’s 7-3 defeat, I ilke St. Louis to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (4:40 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but I think home field advantage can’t be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.25 ERA) who gave up three runs over 6.2 innings in a 5-4 loss to Seattle on Tuesday. Zimmermann has looked better of late, posting four straight quality starts, but note that he’s been at his absolute worst on the road this year, so far 0-3 with a ballooned 5.98 ERA.

The home side counters with Clayton Richard (5-7, 4.20) who come in off a strong outing against the Cubs on Monday, holding the defending champs to two runs off five hits and three walks while striking out three over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Richard is a respectable 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll also point out that Detroit has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going a poor 14-21 (-8.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record, while conversely, this is a spot in which San Diego has done quite well in, going 15-14 (+3.7 units) against teams with losing records. 

I like Richard to outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I think the Mariners will bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Francis Martes (2-0, 5.02 ERA) who makes a spot start in place of Brad Peacock. This is Martes’ third career major league start, having gone 5.2 innings of three run ball against Oakland on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.04) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a no-decision against Detroit on Tuesday. 

Miranda has struggled at times this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a 3-1, 2.20 record/ERA.

If Houston has had one weak spot this year, it’s been its play against southpaws, currently -2.8 units for the season. The M’s on the other hand have struggled in almost every statistical category there is this year, but note they’re +1.8 units against right-handed starters.

I think Miranda is the correct call in this one, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I absolutely feel that Matt Moore and the Giants should be much largers favs in this particular matchup. Great value on the home side.

The Mets hand the ball to Rafael Montero (0-4, 6.49 ERA) who in two starts this season has posted a horrible 10.80 ERA over a total of 6.2 innings. 

Moore (3-7, 5.82) comes in off a great outing against the Braves on Tuesday, giving up three runs off seven hits over seven innings. Moore is just 2-3 in San Francisco this year, but does own a very respectable 3.07 ERA.

Recent form suggests that Moore is the correct call in this one. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Lance McCullers (6-1, 2.58 ERA) who has been on the DL since June 12th. McCullers recently threw a couple of bullpen sessions this week though and he’s been cleared to go.

When McCullers faced the Mariners on April 4th, he was dominant in allowing one earned run off five hits and two walks to go along with seven strikeouts over six innings of work. Note that he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.43) who will get another start in the rotation before some of the starters return from injury. Gaviglio’s peripheral’s (5.89 FIP) suggest he’s been pretty lucky to this point though, which doesn’t bode well in facing this dangerous Astros line-up.

I’ll point out as well that Houston is 26-10 (+11.7 units) against the division already this year, while Seattle is just 13-16 (-2.7 units) against divisional foes.

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

Both starters have been hit-or-miss this year, but Lance Lynn has been dominant in home games and I think he’ll continue his strong play in St. Louis against the volatile Gerrit Cole.

Cole (5-6, 4.28 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Monday, giving up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out five over seven innings. Cole has looked fantastic at times this year and really shaky in others, especially on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.

Lynn (5-4, 3.33) threw five scoreless against the Brewers before then giving up seven runs off nine hits while striking out five over 4.2 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. 

As mentioned off the top though, Lynn has consistently been at his most consistent in front of the home town crowd this season with a very respectable 3-1, 1.53 record/ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 13-18 (-5.8 units) this year agianst clubs with losing records, while St. Louis is 19-13 (+2.8 units) aginst teams with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominators is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Joe Ross has been hit or miss this year for the Nationals, but I think he’ll do more than enough to get the better of his counterpart Homer Bailey today.

Bailey (0-0, 0.00) makes his season debut tonight against the league’s No. 1 offense. Bailey didn’t decently during his re-hab, but has been out since undergoing arm surgery in February. 

Note that he was 2-2 with a 5.74 ERA on the road last year.

Ross (3-3, 5.98) gave up four runs off nine hits and one walk across six innings in a loss to the Mets on Sunday. Note though that only two of the runs given up were earned. 

Ross now has two quality starts in his last three tries. 

I think Ross will easily match whatever Bailey does today and in a scenario like that, I’ll take the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

I think the Astros and Joe Musgrove offer a lot value in this spot.

Musgrove (4-6, 5.09 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget against Boston on Sunday, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks to go along with seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings. Musgrove looks to return to form in the Pacific Northwest tonight, note that he’s been at his best so far on the road this year by going 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73) who is being activated from the ten-day DL to make this start. Hernadez just threw six shutout innings in Triple-A Tacoma and has been given a clean bill of health. 

Hernandez has been better at home than on the road this season, but note that Seattle has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 13-16 (-2.7 units) against the division.

Conversely, the Astros have been at their best against divisional foes, so far 26-10 (+11.7 units).

I think Musgrove can match Hernandez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I do definitely feel that the value swings to the hard-hitting Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (7:05 EST).

I think Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting Rangers are the correct call in this matchup.

Darvish (6-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs off eight hits over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Mariners on Sunday.

No need to overreact to one poor outing though, as the five runs allowed was the most he’s given up this season. Also note that he’s been at his best away from friendly confines this year by posting a 3-2, 2.65 record/ERA.

The home side counters with the struggling Masahiro Tanaka (5-7, 6.34) who comes in off another poor outing, giving up five runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out ten over four innings in a loss to Oakland on Saturday. To go along with his atrocious 6.34 ERA, he also owns a horrible 1.49 WHIP. 

Tanaka’s peripherals suggest rockier times are ahead as well (5.65 FIP). Also note that he’s been poor at home, only 3-3 with a 5.88 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Texas is 10-8 (+4.2 units) in the month of June, while New York is just 9-11 (-6.4 units) in June.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:15 EST).

JA Happ has looked a lot better for the Jays of late and I’m banking on the veteran carrying that momentum over here.

Happ (2-4, 4.26 ERA) owns a 1.21 WHIP to this point and most recently gave up three runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a win over the White Sox on Sunday. Happ has two quality starts in a row while posting a 17/1 K/W ratio over his last 12.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Jake Junis (2-1, 5.56) who owns a 1.72 WHIP to this point after giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. 

Note that Junis has been particularly horrible at home as well with a ballooned 7.71 ERA.

I’ll point out that Toronto is 30-25 (+1.2 units) this year against right-handed starters this season, while KC is 8-11 (-1.8 units) against southpaws. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

Jamie Garcia has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others. He’s been sharp at home all year though. Matt Cain for the most part has been a disaster for the Giants and he’s been particularly inept on the road. 

All signs point to a blowout for the home side in my opinion, as I expect to see it build off its extra-innings victory last night.

Cain (3-6, 4.99 ERA) has a poor 1.69 WHIP and is 0-4 with a massive 7.46 ERA away from friendly confines this season. 

Garcia (2-5, 3.69) was blasted for six runs in his last start, but previous to that had given up just six earned runs over a dominant six-game stretch (note that he owns a respectable 3.63 ERA in Atlanta thus far as well).

Additionally, note that San Francisco is just 6-16 (-10.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while ATL is 4-2 (+1.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

I like the defending champs to bounce back after yesterdays loss at home and take advantage of what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The Cubs hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (6-5, 4.64 ERA) who gave up three runs (just two earned) off four hits while striking out seven over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. 

Arrieta is clearly not the same pitcher as he was in 2014, but all of his peripherals this year point to better times ahead, as his 3.82 xFIP and 79/23 K/W in 73 frames are both excellent.

The home side counters with Jeff Locke (0-2, 4.58 ERA) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up three runs off five hits and one walk across four innings on Saturday against the Marlins. 

Locke has now failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his starts this year and it won’t get any easier facing Chicago as the Cubs are ranked second against southpaws with a .343 wOBA vs. lefties.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I like Arrieta to get back on track and get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 EST).

I think these starting pitchers are a “wash,” but give the big nod to the Brewers at the plate in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (7-4, 2.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. While his 1.02 WHIP and 2.91 ERA are fantastic, it may come as a surprise to learn that Nova’s 13.7 percent strikeout rate ranks 79th out of 84 qualified MLB starters. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (5-2, 2.92) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. Anderson has now allowed just four runs over his last five starts combined (34.2 innings). To go along with his respectable 2.92 ERA, Anderson also sports a tiny 1.15 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 ratio.

As noted off the top, these pitchers are very evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is a poor 25-27 (-1.1 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Milwaukee is 30-26 (+9.3 units) in the same position.

I like Anderson to match Nova and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

y 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the Mariners to build off last night’s win and to take advantage of the volatie Justin Verlander.

Verlander (4-4, 4.50 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against Tampa Bay on Thursday, giving up two runs off six hits with five walks while striking out six over seven innings. 

Verlander has been “lights out” at home this year, holding the opposition to just nine earned runs over 37 frames of work. But he’s been a disaster on the road, so far posting a ballooned 7.22 ERA. 

The home side counters with flame-thrower James Paxton (5-2, 3.23) who comes in off his worst start of the season, giving up seven runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings. 

Paxton’s early season numbers were clearly unsustainable, but I don’t think there’s any need to hit the panic button. Note that he’s still an elite 4-1 with a tiny 2.08 ERA at home this year.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is a poor 9-14 (-5.1 units) this season when on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Seattle is 10-4 (+4.4 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

I think Sean Manaea and the home side offer great value in this spot.

The Astros hand the ball to Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty poor in others. He comes in off a gem against the Red Sox on Friday, giving up one run off five hits over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision.

Fiers has been the beneficiary of ample support this year as his 3-0, 5.40 ERA road record would indicate. 

Manaea (6-3, 4.01) also comes in off a no-decision in his last outing, giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out seven in what turned out to be an eventual 7-6 win over the Yankees on Friday. Despite the five runs given up, Manaea was sharp overall, posting 17 swinging strikes among his 107 pitches, also inducing 11 groundballs. 

Manaea had won five starts in a row previous to that. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA at home this year.

I’ll point out as well that Houston is a money-burning 9-9 (-3.8 units) this year against southpaws, while Oakland is 22-14 (+8.7 units) this season in front of the home town crowd.

I like Manaea to outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Washignton Nationals (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismtach than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.26 ERA) who comes into this one off a gem against the Mets on Friday, allowing one run off four hits and two walks in a 7-2 victory. 

Scherzer has now posted double-digit strikeouts in five straight starts and has 12 quality starts out of his 14 outings overall. Note that Scherzer has been at his absolute best on the road as well, 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA so far.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (5-4, 3.58) who comes in off a strong outing against Atlanta on Friday, going six innings and stirking out eight while giving up no runs. Previous to that though he was coming off his worst start of the year. For the most part Straily has been solid this season, but his periperhals suggest rockier times are ahead.

Meanwhile Scherzer continues to improve as the season wares on. I’m banking on Scherzer to continue his strong play on the road, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.35 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out six over eight innings in a 2-1 loss to Arizona on Wednesday. Zimmermann has been better of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road this year by going 0-3 with a balllooned 6.35 ERA.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.17) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Twins on Thursday, giving up six runs off ten hits over four innings in the eventual setback. Previous to that though the southpaw had allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last six outings, so I’m not reading too much into one crummy peformance.

And that Miranda has been at his absolute best in front of the home town crowd this year, so far 3-1 with a very respectable 2.14 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 9-14 (-5.1 units) this season in road games with a money line in the +150 to -150 range, while Seattle is 10-4 (+4.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

I think the hard-hitting home side offers great value in this spot. Coors field is the “great equalizer” of ballparks and I look for German Marquez to take advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) who gave up five unearned runs off five hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against Detroit on Tuesday. 

Greinke has now posted just one quality start in his last four trips to the hill. 

Marquez (5-3, 4.19) comes in off a gem against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing one run off four hits over five innings in the 5-1 victory. Marquez has struggled with consistency at times this year, but he continues to put together a strong campaign.

I think Greinke has another letdown in this tough venue and as mentioned off the top, I look for Marquez to take advantage. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors turn to Derek Holland (5-6, 3.79 ERA) who comes in off a decent start against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up one run off eight hits over six innings in the victory. It was a battle for Holland, who allowed double-digit baserunners for a fourth consecutive start. 

Note that Holland is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (8-4, 2.56) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Wednesday, giving up five runs off nine hits over five innings. 

Santana’s peripherals suggest that rockier times are coming, but he’s been consistent at home this year with a 3.23 ERA.

And I’ll point out as well that this is a spot in which the Twins have done well in this year for bettors, going 9-7 (+2.6 units) against southpaws, while Chicago has struggled in this position by going a poor 19-29 (-1.5 units) against right-handed starters. 

I like Santana to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:35 EST).

I like the Giants to bounce back after yesterday’s loss and take advantage of a struggling Julio Teheran.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Moore (2-7, 6.00 ERA) who will clearly be eager to get back into the winners circle tonight. Most recently he was shelled for eight runs off 11 hits while striking out seven over just three innings in a loss at Colorado on Thursday. 

Moore has been horrible on the road (0-4, 9.24) and respectable at home (2-3, 3.07). Suffice it to say, I think this large home-road discrepancy begins to stabilize though. 

Teheran (6-4, 4.86) gave up two runs off six hits while striking out three over seven innings in a 13-2 win over Washington on Wednesday. 

Teheran for the most part has been solid this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent in front of the home town crowd, just 1-4 with a ballooned 7.25 ERA.

I like Moore to match Teheran inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the visitors. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:05 EST).

I like the Indians to build off last night’s lop-sided win as they look to take advantage of a struggling Chris Tillman.

The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin (4-8, 5.83 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Thursday. Tomlin’s low strand rate and high opponents’ BABIP both suggest that so far he’s been the victim of some bad luck this year. 

Tilllman (1-5, 8.07) though has been terrrible in every facet of the game this season, most recently getting shelled for five runs off 11 hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Thursday. The right-hander has now allowed 14 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 6.2 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 11-6 (+2.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 14-20 (-7.3 units) following a loss. 

I think Tomlin and the Tribe offer great value in this spot. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the odddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (5-6, 3.14 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Wednesday, allowing six runs off nine hits and two walks to go along with three strikeouts. 

Leake posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first nine starts and has since given up 18 runs over his last 24.2 innings of work.

Note though that the right-hander has been at his best on the road this season, so far 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Jeremy Hellickson (5-6, 4.91), who after putting together a decent April, has been an absolute disappoinment ever since, going just 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA and a poor 23/20 K/W ratio spanning his last 47 innings of work. 

Note that Hellickson has consistently been at his most inconsistent at home as well, just 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA.

I’ll also point out that St. Louis has done well in this spot for bettors by going 17-12 (+2.2 units) against clubs with losing records, while Philadelphia has struggled in this position by going just 12-34 (-17.8 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:30 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (5-6, 4.57 ERA) who comes in off a loss to Kansas City on Wednesday, giving up five runs off ten hits and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings of work. Cueto was done in by the long-ball (giving up three of them).

I’ll point out though that Cueto was 10-2 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last year and while he’s struggled away from friendly confines this season, his track record suggests that he’ll be able to get things under control. A matchup against the inconsistent Braves’ line-up is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion.

The home side counters with RA DIckey (4-5, 5.12) who gave up eight runs off eight hits across five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Dickey for the most part has struggled this season in every facet of the game.

Both teams have also struggled with consistency at the plate this year, so I’m calling that area a “wash.” However, I’m giving Cueto the nod on the bump in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think Scott Feldman and the Reds offer great value in this spot against the inconsistent Jake Odorizzi.

Feldman (5-5, 4.29 ERA) comes in off a 6-2 loss to San Diego, giving up four runs while striking out six over five innings of work. Prevoius to the sub-par effort though he’d thrown a gem, giving up zero runs over seven innings to St. Louis. Feldman had a blow up in the first inning against the Padres and then settled down completely after that. I think he carries over that momentum here.

Odorizzi (4-3, 3.77) was blasted for five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. He struggled with control, thowing only 55 of his 99 pitches for strikes while also issuing at least three free passes for the fourth time in his last five starts. 

Odorizzi’s poor 5.22 FIP suggests that even more unstable times are on the horizon as well. 

I like Feldman to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Reds to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST).

I’ve been back and forth on this series, which isn’t something I normally do. However, I feel that Joe Musgrove is definitely the correct call here, as I expect David Price to continue his slow progression after his major elbow surgery. 

Price (1-1, 5.09 ERA) gave up thre runs off four hits and four walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday. It was the second straight outing in which Price has walked four batters. Note that he owns an uninspiring 5.29 ERA on the road so far this year.

Musgrove (4-5, 4.81) returned from the DL to give up two runs off five hits and one walk over five innings in an eventual loss to Texas on Monday. He has been improving as the season has progressed and has posted a quality start in four of his last five trips to the hill. 

Musgrove has a significant advantage in throwing at home today and I believe he’ll do more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (3:35 EST).

Jason Vargas is dominating this year and he isn’t getting nearly enough respect in this matchup. 

Vargas (9-3, 2.10 ERA) gave up one run off five hits and a walk over seven innings in an 8-1 win over San Francisco on Tuesday, also striking out six. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road, 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA thus far (also an amazing 2-0 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA in all “day” games).

The home side counters wth JC Ramirez (6-4, 4.19) who comes in off a strong outing as well, going 6.2 innings against the Yanks on Tuesday and allowing two runs off five hits with three walks while striking out seven in what turned out to be a no-decision. 

Note though that previous to that Ramirez had been struggling, giving up 11 runs off 18 hits over 9.1 innings spanning two starts. 

Also note that he’s an uninspiring 2-5 with a 5.05 ERA at home as well.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and that’s what I’m primarily basing this selection on. Great value on the red hot Vargas, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rockies yesterday and I think they also offer great value in this spot as well.

The visitors turn to Ty Blach (4-4, 4.24 ERA) who gave up seven runs off ten hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in an 8-1 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday. Blach has been serviceable this year, but he’s struggled on the road in going just 2-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA. 

The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (6-7, 4.16) who comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Tuesday, giving up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision.

Chatwood threw 65 percent of his 79 pitches for strikes and he’s currently riding an awesome streak which has seen him allow just three earned runs across 20 innings spanning three starts. 

Chatwood has struggled at home, but it’s an even playing field for everyone that comes to Coors.

And certainly it’s not going to be easy on Blach, who struggles on the road no matter where he is, let alone in the thin air of Colorado.

I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 8-16 (-10.7 units) this year in all “day” games, while the Rockies are 20-8 (+13.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (8:15 EST).

While he’s predictably struggled this year off a career best campaign in 2016, I think Red Sox starter Rick Porcello offers great value in this spot.

Porcello (3-8, 4.67 ERA) comes in off a dud against the Phillies on Monday, giving up five runs off ten hits while striking out four across six innings in an eventual no-decision. Porcello was rocked for four runs in the first inning and then settled down after that. 

While he’s just 1-3 on the road, it should be noted though that Porcello owns a respectable 3.76 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with David Paulino (0-0, 6.59) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out four in a 12-6 loss to the Angels on Sunday. Paulino is filling in for Dallas Keuchel, but not doing a very good job of it obviously.

Over his last 13.2 innings of work Paulino has allowed ten runs off 19 hits.

The correct call here is Porcello, as the reigning AL Cy Young award winner gets untracked in this favorable matchup. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:05 EST).

I simply feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (2-1, 2.44 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out four in an eventual 3-2 victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. 

Since taking over Shelby Miller’s spot in the rotation, Godley has posted a 2.44 ERA and tiny 0.99 WHIP (he’s 2.84 ERA on the road thus far).

The home side counters with the volatile Jerad Eickhoff (0-7, 5.09) who comes in off a no-decision against Boston on Monday, allowing four runs off seven hits across six frames of work. 

Note that Eickhoff has been at his absolute worst this year when throwing in front of the home town crowd as well, so far 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 31-18 (+12.6 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is just 14-33 (-17 units) in the same position.

In my professional opinion, this is the very defenition of “great line value.” Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

The Rockies look for a third straight win in this four game series. Colorado took Game 1, 10-9 and then followed it up with a 10-8 victory last night. The San Francisco pitchers have struggled at Coors Field so far and I don’t think anything will change this afternoon with Matt Cain up next.

Cain (3-5, 5.22 ERA) was most recently shelled for five runs off seven hits over just four innings in a fortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Sunday. Over his last eight starts Cain has posted a 7.13 ERA and 1.0 K/W ratio. 

Cain has been sharp at home (3-2, 2.77), but horrible on the road (0-3, 8.40).

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (7-4, 3.57) who comes in off a dud against the Pirates on Monday, allowing five runs off nine hits over 5.2 innings. Despite the sub-par effort, the rookie continues to look solid across the board, also sporting a 1.39 WHIP (and note that he’s been better at Coors Field as well this year with a 3.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP).

Freeland is also 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in all “day” games.

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 8-16 (-10.7 units) in all “day” games this season, while Colorado is 20-8 (+13.2 units) in the same position. 

The bottom line is that the Giants have horrible starting pitching, their Rockies counterparts have clearly been better in this series and I think that trend carries over here. Coors Field is a nightmare and Cain has been at his absolute worst on the road. 

This line could/should easily be much higher. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (9:35 EST).

I think the hard-hitting Yankees strike back on Friday night after falling 8-7 in Oakland on Thursday.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (5-2, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Baltimore on Saturday, giving up one run off two hits with two walks to go along with eight K’s over seven innings for the victory. He was extremely effecient, needing just 89 pitches. 

Severino has now gone five straight starts with at least seven punchouts and allowing two or fewer runs. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season as well by going 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA. 

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (6-3, 3.67) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday. Manaea has been getting better as the season has progressed.

However I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the A’s have struggled in mightily all year, going just 16-23 (-4.6 units) in all “night” games and only 19-30 (-10 units) against right-handed starters, while conversely the Yanks have excelled in this position by going 25-18 (+3.3 units) in all “night” games and 9-7 (+1.1 units) against southpaws.

I’m giving Severino the slight nod on the mound and the Yanks a big nod at the plate and with those two factors working in our favor, I’m going to lay the price with confidence tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

Drew Pomeranz has been “hit-or-miss” all year for Boston and comes in off a dud. Since being re-inserted back into the starting rotation, Houston’s Mike Fiers has been “on fire” and suffice it to say, I think he’s not getting nearly enough respect in this matchup.

Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48 ERA) was most recently shelled for six runs off eight hits and two walks to go along with two K’s over 4.1 innings in an 8-3 loss to Detroit on Sunday. Pomeranz was coming off a decent three-game stretch, but his inconsistencies once again came back to haunt him in this one.

Fiers (4-2, 4.29) most recently gave up one unearned run off two hits and two walks over 7.1 innings against the Angels on Saturday, also striking out eight. Since his return to the rotation he’s given up four total runs over his last three starts combined (all victories), while posting a very respectable 20/6 K/W ratio over that span. 

I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 8-14 (-7.1 units) this season on the road when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Houston is 3-1 (+1.2 units) in its last four as a home fav between -125 to -175.

Fiers is the correct call here. Great price on the home side.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Mets last night and they’d fall to the visiting Nationals. I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team from game-to-game, but MLB is different than other sports, as the starting pitchers have to be looked at seperately each night. And that’s the case with this one, as I think Steven Matz will struggle in his second start back from injury, while I look for Max Scherzer to continue his strong play as we head towards the break.

Scherzer (7-4, 2.36 ERA) comes in off a 5-1 loss to Texas on Sunday despite giving up just two earned runs off three hits with ten K’s over 7.1 solid innings of work. Over his last four trips to the mound Scherzer has now given up a grand total of four runs while striking out 48. 

Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season as well with a 5-1, 1.95 record/ERA.

Matz (1-0, 1.29) gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out two over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Saturday. Matz looked pretty good in his season debut, but clearly that Nationals present a much stiffer test tonight.

And I’ll point out that New York is just 24-28 (-11.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Washington is 6-4 (+1.2 units) against left-handed starters.

For all the reason listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Phillies come in off a big 1-0 win over the Red Sox last night and I think that they’ll carry that momentum over into what sets up as a nice mismatch on the mound for them in the opener of this three game weekend series.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (5-6, 5.38 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Padres on Thurdsay, giving up three runs off eight hits with three walks over 5.2 innings for a victory. To go along with his ballooned 5.38 ERA, Corbin also sports an unimpressive 1.61 WHIP. 

And note that Corbin has been particularly useless on the road this season, going 0-5 with an atrocious 9.00 ERA.

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (3-4, 4.40), who like his counterpart today gave up three runs in his last start, but he’d unfortuantely suffer a loss against the Cards on Sunday, striking out six and walking two over five innings of work. 

Nola has been “hit-or-miss” this season, but note that the Phillies are 4-1 (+3 units) in their last five after shutting out an opponent in their previous game.

I’ll also point out that the Diamondbacks are only 15-17 (-1.2 units) on the road this season.

I think Nola outduels his volatile counterpart and I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

San Francisco starter Matt Moore (2-7, 5.28 ERA) has looked a lot better of late after a disastrous start to the 2017 campaign, but he’s still a horrible 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA on the road this year. 

Jeff Hoffman (4-0, 2.33) has taken advantage of his time this season, giving up seven runs through 27 frames of work, posting a tiny 0.74 WHIP and 34 strikeouts with just three walks. 

Note that Hoffman is 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA in all “night” games this year. 

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 16-27 (-14.1 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Colorado is 12-8 (+7.5 units) against left-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Both of these starting pitchers have looked great at times this year and very poor in others. While neither instills much confidence right now, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA) is coming off a win over the A’s on Friday, holding them to one run over six innings. 

While he does own a winning 3-2 record in all “night” games this year, note that Cobb has a poor 5.01 ERA in such instances.

The home side counters with Verlander (4-4, 4.68) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. 

Verlander has been one of the league’s biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers this year though, going a poor 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA on the road, while going a stellar 2-0 with a tiny 2.10 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four following a loss.

I look for Verlander to continue his success in Detroit and to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Washignton comes in off a deflating 13-2 loss at home to the Braves last night, while New York is off a confidene building 9-4 victory over the Cubs, taking two of three from the defending champs most recently. Gio Gonzalez has been very good for Washington this year, but so to has Robert Gsellman for the Mets. Ultimately I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Washington and I look for Gsellman to take advantage.

Gonzalez (5-1, 2.91 ERA) gave up a single run over six innings while striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Saturday.

Gonzalez has been good, but not perfect this year. Note that he sports a pedestrian 4.38 ERA on the road and a 4.25 ERA in all “night” games.

Gsellman (5-3, 4.95) comes in off a gem himself, going 6.2 scoreless innings against the Braves on Saturday, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out four in the victory. 

Gsellman has been far from perfect this season either, but note that the Mets have performed well in this spot for bettors recently, going 3-1 (+2 units) in their last four against southpaws, while Washignton has been scuffling of late by going just 6-7 (-5.8 units) in the month of June.

I think Gsellman can match Gonzalez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the advantage goes to the suddenly surging home side. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (10:05 EST)

I like the Yanks to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda (7-3, 3.39 ERA) who went seven innings and gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight in a win over the Red Sox on Thursday. 

Pineda had suffered his worst start of the year previous to that gem and now owns an impressive 9.4 K/9 ratio. 

The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (6-3, 4.22) who earned a win over the Astros on Friday despite giving up four runs over seven frames of work. 

Shoemaker has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but I’ll point out that the Angels have struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going just 23-28 (-4.2 units) against right-handed starters and 0-2 (-2 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

And note that the Yanks have been dominant in this spot, going 29-16 (+11.5 units) against right-handed starters and 25-16 (+6 units) in all “night” contests.

I like Pineda to match Shoemaker inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the advantage goes to the hard-hitting Yankees. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SItuational Stunner is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I like the Twins to build off yesterday’s 20-7 beatdown victory and to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday with their “ace” on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.79 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits over five innings in a 9-2 win over Tampa on Saturday. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing though as previous to that he’d been shelled for ten runs over 11 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s been particularly average on the road as well with a 1-1, 4.85 record/ERA.

The home side counters with Ervin Santana (8-3, 2.20) who threw a four-hit shutout in a win at San Francisco on Friday. Previous to that he suffered his worst outing of the year (seven runs in four innings), but he bounced back easily to post his league-leading third shutout of the season. Note that Santana has been particularly tough at home as well with a 3-2, 2.63 record/ERA this season.

I’ll also point out that Seattle is just 21-23 (-2.3 units) in all “night” games this year, while Minnesota is 20-11 (+10.2 units) in the same position.

I’m giving Santana the big nod on the bump in this matchup and that makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the San Diego Padres (3:40 EST).

I like the home side to build off last night’s 6-2 victory. I had a play on the “over” in that one and it would go on to “push” unfortuantely.

Regardless, while neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, I think the home side has the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Amir Garrett (3-5, 7.40 ERA) who took a line-drive off his pitching hand in his last start and was pulled after just two innings of work. Garrett has been cleared to play this afternoon, but so far he’s been a complete disaster this season. Previous to the shortened start he gave up nine runs off seven hits and three walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Braves. 

Note that Garrett has been particularly horrible on the road as well this season, going 2-3 with an atrocious 8.14 ERA.

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (5-5, 5.35) who comes in off a gem against Kansas City on Friday. Chacin could very well be the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the game right now, posting a 10.27 ERA on the road, compared to a 1.58 ERA across 40 innings in front of the home town crowd.

I think Chacin should be a much bigger favorite as he’s been absolutely “lights out” at home this year. Value to the home side, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

I like the Cubs to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA) who most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday. Letser’s peripherals and track record suggest he can return to form though.

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and three walks over seven innings in a no-decision against Texas on Wednesday. Wheeler has been decent, not great this season. 

I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand-point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that the Cubs are 56-24 (+20.6 units) in their last 80 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Mets are just 4-8 (-5.4 units) this year at home with a money-line between +130 and -130.

I like Lester to get back on track and outduel his counterpart. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The vistors hand the ball to Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA), who was recalled from Triple-A Durham to make this start. Faria gets another crack at the big club with Matt Andriese back on the DL. 

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04) who has now been rumored to be on the trading block. Estrada has been solid this year, logging a team-high 78 innings and posting a sharp 90/20 K/W through 13 starts. If the Jays continue to fade, Estrada could fetch a good price.

Note that Estrada is 2-1 with a very respectable 3.89 ERA at home so far this year.

This is a tough spot for Faria. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think the home side will bounce back here after falling 13-8 in San Francisco yesterday afternoon.

I had a play on the Giants in that one. I had a play on Minnesota on Saturday though and it would go on to cash as a slight dog.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-6, 6.26 ERA) who was fortunate to receive a no-decision against the Twins on Wednesday after giving up five earned runs off six hits over seven innings. It was the second consecutive start that he’s given up five runs. Note that Gallardo is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.55 ERA on the road so far this season.

The home side counters with Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 4.18) who threw opposite Gallardo last week and who gave up three runs with five strikeouts over five innings. Since returning to the rotation in May, Mejia has posted a respectable 3.52 ERA and 19:9 K/W in that span. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 20-23 (-3.5 units) this year in all “night” games, while Minnesota is 20-10 (+11.4 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

Chicago broke a four-game losing slide with a victory over the Rockies last night and I like the defending champs to find a way to get the job done tonight as well.

The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-6, 5.12 ERA) who gave up five runs while striking out six with no walks over six innings in a loss to the Fish on Wednesday. Lackey is now clearly struggling at 38 years old, but his long-term track record suggests that he can still bounce back (it’s worth noting as well that he’s elevated his strikeout rate from last year, which isn’t typical of pitchers that are on the decline).

The home side counters with the equally as struggling Jacob DeGrom (4-3, 4.75) who was shelled for eight runs off ten hits in a 10-8 loss to Texas on Tuesday. DeGrom’s peripherals suggest that he’s likely been the victim of some bad luck (3.18 xFIP), but that still doesn’t explain how awful he’s been of late, allowing 15 runs over his last eight innings of work. Note that DeGrom is 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.08 ERA at home this year.

I think Lackey can match DeGrom inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the advantage goes to the hungry Cubs’ line-up. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Colorado Rockies (7:05 EST).

I think this pitching matchup favors the Rockies.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (7-3, 3.21 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits with five K’s over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday. 

Freeland has been better on the road than at home (not surprising obviously) this season, going 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.31) who will make his first start since May 3rd after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. On Wednesday he threw six innings of work with Triple-A Indianapolis and gave up five runs. 

Note that Taillon owns a poor 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd to this point.

I’ll point out as well that Colorado has in fact performed very well for bettors in this spot all year, going 29-15 (+13.5 units) against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is just 6-11 (-4.8 units) against southpaws.

This is a tough opponent for Taillon to face in his first start back from the DL, while Freeland comes into this one on top form. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the hard-hitting Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I had a play on the Twins last night and they’d go on to win 3-2 as fairly nice underdogs. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Nik Turley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester to make this start. Turley has been great between Double and Triple-A, but clearly he’s been thrown to the wolves in his first start in the big leagues tonight.

The home side counters with veteran Matt Cain (3-5, 4.73) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off ten hits and two walks over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. 

Cain opened the season promisingly, but is now scuffling. It’s important to note though that he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 8.40 ERA on the road, but 3-2 with a tiny 1.82 ERA. in front of the home town crowd.

I like Cain to continue his dominant ways in San Francisco and expect Turley to struggle in this difficult atmosphere. All signs point to a big bounce back today for the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.83 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and one walk over five innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Guerra entered that contest with a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, but the ten baserunners he allowed were more than in any of his other starts this season. While his ERA remains elite, his 15:9 K/W ratio over 19.2 innings point to some immediate regression.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (1-1, 2.39), who returns to the big club after a stint in Triple-A. The 27 year old has thrown well for his team, posting a 2.39 ERA and 32:12 K/W ratio through 37.2 innings (six starts). 

Note that Godley has been particularly effective at home as well this year, going 1-0 with a tiny 1.93 ERA.

Guerra’s numbers are unsustainable, a fact backed up by his suspect peripherals. Godley is the correct call here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (5:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d go on to easily win 13-4. I look for the home side to build off that convincing performance and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Saturday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.81 ERA) who most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-3 win over Toronto on Monday. Manaea has looked sharp of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent when on the road, going just 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA.

The home side counters with Matt Andriese (5-1, 3.45) who returns from the DL after a mild groin strain. Andriese has pitched 11 games and to go along with his respectable 3.45 ERA, he also owns a 1.28 WHIP to go along with 54 K’s and 21 walks. 

I’ll also point out that Oakland is just 4-13 (-9.2 units) this season on the road when there money line is between +125 to -125, while Tampa Bay is 11-9 (+1.4 units) this year at home when the money line is between +125 to -125. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (4:05 EST).

I’m not one to “flip flop” on a team from game-to-game, but MLB is a different “beast” because for the most part, everything comes down to the starting pitching, so each contest must be evaluated seperately.

And in this case, I definitely think that Jose Berrios has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart today.

Berrios (4-1, 2.76 ERA) bounced back from his worst start ever as a pro against the red hot Astros to pitch a gem in a 3-2 win against the hard-hitting Angels on Sunday, going six frames and allowing two runs and six hits while striking out four and walking two. 

So far Berrios has allowed ten runs over 32.2 innings of work with a 2.76 ERA. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (2-7, 4.29) who gave up two runs off six hits and no walks over 7.2 innings in a win over the Brewers on Monday, also striking out ten. It was Samardzija’s best start of the year and like his counterpart today, he was coming off a complete disaster of an outing previous to his latest gem.

“The Shark” has been better of late, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA at home this season.

I’ll also point out that Minnesota has done extremely well in this spot for bettors this year by going 23-20 (+3.4 units) against right-handed starters, while San Francisco is just 16-24 (-9.9 units) this season in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I like San Francisco to build off its 9-5 win over the Brewers yesterday and I expect Minnesota to stumble in the opener of this three-game interleague series after scoring the 2-1 victory in Seattle late last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (7-3, 2.44 ERA) who gave up seven earned runs, including three homers over just four innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. Santana struggled with control and only struck out two. Santana’s earlier remarkable numbers were clearly unsustainable and I think he’s in line for another rough outing here.

The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-6, 5.22) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. 

Moore though has been one of the league’s biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this year, posting a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP on the road, compared to a 2.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 at home. 

I like Moore to continue his consistent play in front of the home town crowd and I look for Santana to continue to slide as the first half ot the season comes to a close. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Michael Wacha and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremey Hellickson (5-3, 4.50 ERA) who allowed five runs over 5.1 innings against San Francisco on Sunday. Over his last seven starts Hellickson has gone 1-3 with 6.75 ERA and a 17:16 K/W ratio spanning 36 frames of work.

Note that Hellickson is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

Wacha (2-3, 4.67) gave up six runs off six hits and four walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Chicago on Sunday. Wacha started the year on point, posting a 2.74 ERA over six quality outings, but has since struggled in three straight trips to the mound by going 0-2 with an 11.91 ERA. 

Wacha’s earlier numbers were clearly unsustainable. But I think it’s safe to say that he also isn’t as bad as what his recent little slide would suggest either. 

The moral of the story here is not to overreact. I also point out that Wacha has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 2-1 with a very respetable 2.94 ERA.

I look for Wacha to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the Cardinals to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

I like the Rays to build off yesterday’s 7-5 win over the White Sox, while I expect Oakland to stumble in the opener of this three-game set after getting the day off.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Triggs (5-5, 3.36 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits and a walk over 3.2 innings in a 13-3 loss to Washington on Friday. Triggs has now given up at least one home run in each of his last four starts, including two on Friday. 

The home side counters with Alex Cobb (4-5, 4.52) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up nine earned runs off 14 hits and two walks over five innings in a 9-2 loss to Seattle on Saturday. Cobb is just 1-3 at home, but he does own a very respectable 3.67 ERA in Tampa so far this season.

I’ll point out though that Oakland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, going just 18-25 (-6 units) against right-handed starters, while Tampa has excellled in this position, going 23-18 (+5.1 units) against right-handed pitchers.

I think Cobb will outduel his volatile counterpart and get back on track after the disastrous outing last time out. Lay the price, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter in his last game, but he’s still just 2-7 with a pedestrian 3.79 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Volquez had been a disasater previous to the historic feat and suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into his one decent outing. In fact, I think there is now only one way Volquez can go (and that’s not up!). Note that he’s been at his worst on the road this season as well by going 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA.

The home side counters with ace Gerrit Cole (3-5, 4.27) who will be eager to get back on track after scuffling over his last three starts. He comes in off an outing to forget as well after getting rocked for seven runs over five innings on Friday. 

Cole has been plagued by the home run, but note that he’s been at this best in front of the home town crowd this year, going 1-1 with a very respectable 2.53 ERA.

I’ll also point out that the Marlins are just 2-6 (-2.9 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 (+4.1 units) as a home fav of -125 to -175 this season.

I like Cole to get back on track with a focused effort and am expecting a predictable letdown from Volquez after his gem last time out. This line is could/should easily be a lot higher, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I had a play on the Mets last night and I am not one to usually “flip flop” on a team from game to game, but MLB is the one sport where the focal point is on the starting pitcher and where each contest has to be looked at individually.

And in this case, I feel that Yu Darvish is well worth the price of admission.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Wheler (3-3, 3.72 ERA) who despite allowing ten hits and a walk over six innings to go along with two runs and a walk, managed to find a way to victory over the Brewers on Thursday. 

The home side counters with ace Darvish (5-4, 3.13) who for the most part has been very solid this year, especially at home with a 3-2, 3.25 record/ERA.

I’ll point out though that New York is just 10-12 (-2.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is 17-13 (+2.7 units) at home. 

I like Darvish to easily outduel his counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-6, 5.13 ERA) who was shelled for five runs (four earned) off six hits and five walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to San Francisco on Friday. 

Note that Eickhoff has been consistently at his worst on the road this year, 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (3-5, 3.90) who went seven scoreless against the Reds on Friday, scattering two hits and striking out ten in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Foltynewicz has gotten better as the season has progressed, posting a 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24:6 K/W ratio in 28 innings over his last five starts. 

And that’s bad news for the Phillies, who rank 24th in the league in wOVA against right-handed pitchers (.305).

I’ll also point out that Philadelphia is just 3-8 (-4.9 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while ATL is 3-1 (+1.7 units) this season as a home fav in the -127 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-2, 3.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Milwaukee on Wednesday, giving up seven runs off eight hits over four innings, also going on to strike out six and walk five. 

DeGrom’s peripherals suggest he’s been the victim of some bad luck of late, as he holds career highs in BABIP (.338) and HR/FB (18.2 percent). Note that DeGrom is 3-0 with a respectable 3.89 ERA on the road this year as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Dillon Gee (0-0, 0.00) who will make his first start ever for the Rangers. Gee has been used out of the Bullpen for Texas, most recently going four innings on Friday.

I’ll point out that New York is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year after allowing ten runs or more, while Texas is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all “night” games.

I think DeGrom gets back on track and continues his success on the road. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I think this is a matchup which favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jesse Chavez (4-6, 4.68 ERA) who comes in off a good start against the anemic Braves on Wednesday, holding them to one run over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. 

Chavez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road, just 1-4 with a poor 5.46 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.47) who earned a no-decision agains the Royals on Monday after going five innings and givein up three earned runs off six hits while also striking out four. 

Norris has been getting incrementally better with each start this season as he’s now gone at least five innings in four straight outings. He’s also given up three earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is just 1-8 (-7.8 units) already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Ivan Nova has looked better than Kevin Gausman this season, but the Pirates have given their “ace” little support this year. Gausman has also looked a lot better of late though.

Nova (5-4, 2.92 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out three in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nova really, as for the most part he’s been one of the best in the league to this point. 

Gausman (3-4, 5.92) gave up three runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings while striking out four in a win over the Yankees on Wednesday. Gausman is now 2-1 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll point out though that the Pirates are just 2-4 (-2 units) in all interleague games this season, while the Orioles are 4-2 (+1.8 units) in the same position.

I think Gausman can match Nova and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:05 EST).

Toronto heads out West after beating the Yanks 3-2 at home early yesterday afternoon, while the A’s looked primed for a letdown here in my opinion after last night’s deflating 11-10 loss at home to the Nationals.

The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (0-3, 4.50 ERA) who went four innings and gave up two runs off three hits and three walks with three K’s in a 6-4 win over the Reds on Tuesday. It was Happs first start since April 16th and after allowing two early solo home runs, he’d settle down and allow just a single hit over his final four innings of work. He was 20-4 last season and is expected to be given a longer leash this evening after a pitch count in his first start.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (4-3, 3.91) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over seven innings in a victory over the Tribe on Wednesday. Manaea struggled to open the year, but enters this game on an extended stretch of excellence. However I’ll point out that the A’s are just 1-4 (-3 units) in their last five after scoring ten or more runs in their previous game.

Also note that Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after holding its opponent to two runs or less in its previous outing.

I think Happ can match his counterpart inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the dog. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I think Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals can finally cool off the red hot Astros in what I believe is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96 ERA), who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 7-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday. Fiers returned to the rotation to throw a gem, but previous to that he’d pretty much been a disaster this season.

The moral of the story is, let’s not overreact to one decent outing (and note that Fiers owns a poor 5.70 ERA on the road this year as well).

Kennedy (0-5, 5.12) is clearly eager to get off the schneid and notch his first victory of the year, most recently giving up five runs off four hits while striking out four over just three innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Kennedy posted a 2.30 ERA in April and an 11.30 ERA in May. His home ERA is a pedestrian 4.39.

Neither starter instills too much confidence, but I believe Kennedy has the advantage at home today. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

Miami comes in off a 6-5 win over the Diamondbacks, while Chicago held on for a 7-6 win over the Cardinals last night. Now the Fish have to travel to the Windy City and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a letdown spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out ten over 6.2 innings in a 10-2 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Straily has been on a tear, but he’s been one of the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this season, going 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in frot of the home town crowd, compared to just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Eddie Butler (2-1, 4.42) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off seven hits while striking out five over 4.1 innings in an eventual 6-2 loss to the Padres on Tuesday. 

Butler has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a respectable 3.38 ERA.

I find it interesting to note that Miami is just 15-28 (-14.7 units) in its last 43 games that fall on a “Monday,” while Chicago is 30-14 (+10.4 units) in its last 44 in the same position. 

Butler is playing for his spot in the rotation and I think he can match his volatile counterpart inning for inning. Chicago will look to take advantage of Straily’s road struggles and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (2:15 EST).

The Royals pounded the Tribe 12-5 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time on Sunday afternoon for Cleveland.

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (5-4, 6.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk while also striking out 14 in a win over Oakland on Tuesday. After a horrible start to the 2017 campaign, Bauer has looked a lot better of late, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four outings while also posting a 36:4 K/W ratio. 

The home side counters with Eric Skoglund (1-0, 0.00) who looked great in his debut against Detroit on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and a walk while striknig out five over 6.1 innings. So is Skoglund going to be the next Clayton Kershaw? Maybe.

But note that he’d posted a poor 4.53 ERA over eight starts for Triple-A Omaha before Tuesday’s call-up. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 13-6 (+2.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while KC is just 5-12 (-7.1 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe as I look for Boston to build off its 5-2 win yesterday with its ace on the mound.

The visitors turn to Chris Sale (6-2, 2.77 ERA) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out nine in what turned out to be a 13-7 win over the White Sox. Sale struggled against his former team, but his offense was on fire, smoking six dingres for the night.

Note that Sale is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA on the road thus far this season.

The home side counters with Chris Tillman (1-2, 5.87) who has been a disaster of late, posting a ballooned 7.50 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and .358 BAA over his last four trips to the mound. 

Note that Tillman has looked terrible in front of the home town crowd this year, just 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out that Boston is 13-8 (+2.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Baltimore is just 6-9 (-4 units) in the same position.

I don’t usually play favorites of this size, but all signs point to a relatively easy blowout. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (10:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d unfortunately fall 12-4 in Seattle. I think the visitors bounce back in Game 2 in what sets up to be a very favorable pitching matchup for them.

Tampa Bay hands the ball to Alex Cobb (4-4, 3.67 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while walking three and striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins Sunday. Cobb has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA. 

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (1-1, 3.50) who gave up five earned runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in what would turn out to be a 6-5 win over the Rockies on Monday. This could be Gaviglio’s last time in the rotation, with several key members set to return.

I’ll point out that the Rays are 22-16 (+6.4 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Mariners are just 18-22 (-3.1 units) in the same position.

I think Cobb is the correct call here, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:15 EST).

I like Baltimore to build off yesterday’s 3-2 victory and take advantage of Boston starter David Price, who is making just his second start of the season.

Price (0-0, 5.40 ERA) is expected to be on a pitch count again today. In his first start against the White Sox he threw 88 pitches. Price should be rolling before too long, but clearly this is a tough second opponent.

The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (6-3, 2.89 ERA) who opened the year on fire in April, but who took a small step back in May, going 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 26:14 K/W ratio spanning six starts. Despite that, Bundy’s 1.14 WHIP through 11 games is more than what the Orioles would have hoped for and note that he’s been particularly effective at home, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 5-11 (-7 units) this year when on the road when the money line is between +125 to -125, while Baltimore is 12-4 (+7.7 units) this season at home when the money line is set between the same range.

I like Bundy to outduel his counterpart, who I expect will need a few more games under his belt before he returns to top form. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

The Astros are on an impressive run right now, but I think that Houston finally has a letdown here.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Dallas Keuchel (8-0, 1.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a 5-2 win over the Orioles on Saturday. 

It’s impossible to say anything negative about Keuchel, so I won’t bother. As I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for Houston.

The home side counters with ace Yu Darvish (5-3, 2.97) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a setback to the Blue Jays on Saturday. Darvish made one mistake and Toronto slugger Jose Bautista made him pay with a three-run shot. 

Note that Darvish has been particularly effective at home this year by going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA. 

Houston is hot, but Texas is 17-10 (+5.7 units) at home. I like Darvish to match Keuchel inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I feel that the value swings to the underdog. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now, but Jimmy Nelson comes in on top form as well. I think Nelson can match Kershaw inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to hard-hitting home side.

Kershaw (7-2, 2.37 ERA) was rocked for four runs off 11 hits (including three dingers) over just 4.1 innings of work, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort most recently.

Kershaw was also shelled for three dingers in a single game earlier in the season as well. 

Nelson (3-3, 3.83) gave up one run off seven hits to go along with a season-high 10 K’s over seven innings in a 9-5 win over Arizona on Sunday. He would not walk a single batter in the dominant effort. 

Note that LA is just 12-13 (-4.8 units) on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 10-7 (+4.4 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side offers fantastic value in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (2-5, 3.65 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings in a win over these very Mets on Saturday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort. Note that Cole is just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.67 ERA on the road and has now given up nine runs over his last 9.2 innings while striking out just five batters. 

The home side counters with Matt Harvey (4-3, 4.95) who gave up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. 

Harvey would go on to throw 67 of his 102 pitches for strikes.

It was easily his best outing of the year and I think he can build off it again in this favorable matchup against the soft-hitting Pirates.

I’ll also point out that PIttsburgh is just 13-16 (-2.9 units) this season after a loss, while New York is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a victory.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-3, 3.24 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off five hits and two walks with six K’s in a 6-1 loss in Milwaukee on Saturday. 

Greinke though had been red hot previous to that, winning four in a row and five of his last six. Greinke has struggled a bit on the road this year, but note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Jeff Locke (0-0, 0.00) who will make his season debut tonight. He was injured in the spring and has worked himself through his re-hab session admirably, posting a 1.77 ERA and 22:2 K/W ratio over seven starts between High-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. 

I’ll point out though that Arizona is 20-12 (+7.7 units) this season following a victory, while Miami is just 8-12 (-4.4 units) in the same position. 

As good as Locke looked in Double A, I still think that Greinke is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

The Yankees head North of the border on Thurdsay night after falling 10-4 in Baltimore on Wednesday, while Toronto beat Cincinnati 5-4 at home last night. 

The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (5-2, 4.42 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks while striking out nine over 6.1 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Sabathia has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s 2-2 with a ballooned 6.12 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-2, 3.15) who enters June off a fantastic May, finishing 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA and massive 42:8 K/W ratio over six starts. Estrada comes into the new month sporting a career-best 3.42 FIP through his first 11 games.

Note that Estrada has been especially sharp at home this year by going 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA.

I’ll also point out that New York is just 9-11 (-2.1 units) this season on the road when the money line is set between +150 and -150, while Toronto is now 4-3 (+1 units) after three or more consecutive victories.

The Jays are now one of the hottest teams in the league after a dismal start because they’re getting healthier, with sluggers Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson both returning to the line-up recently. 

Sabahthia has been pretty good this year, but Estrada comes in on top form. As does Toronto. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

This series shifts from Colorado to Seattle and suffice it say, I think the Mariners will capatalize and build off yesterday’s 10-4 victory. 

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (7-1, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Cards on Friday, going eight scoreless and striking out three in the 10-0 victory. 

Colorado would go on to turn four double plays behind Senzatela. A closer look at his peripherals though (4.54 FIP and 4.55 xFIP) suggest rockier times are ahead.

The home side countes with flame-thrower James Paxton (3-0, 1.43) who prior to landing on the DL had posted a 1.43 ERA, 0.98 WHIP to go along with 45 K’s over 37.2 innings of work (that includes going 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA at home).

I’ll point out that Colorado is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in all interleague contests this year, while Seattle is 7-3 (+4.8 units) in the same position.

I think Senzatela’s poor peripherals finally catch up to him here and I look look for Paxton to dominate in his first start back from re-hab. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

Neither of these pitchers has gotten out to the start to the 2017 campaign that they’d hoped for, but I think that New York and Mashario Tanaka will build off yesterday’s 8-3 victory. 

Tanaka (5-4, 5.86) gave up one run off five hits while stirking out 13 over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate loss to the A’s on Friday. As mentioned, Tanaka has struggled this year, but there’s no question that he looked a lot better against Oakland and note that he’s still 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (2-4, 6.17), who also comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over 6.2 innings in a 2-0 loss to Houston on Friday. 

It could have been a lot worse for Gausman, as both runs came off solo dingers. Gausman struggled in April and has looked much better of late, but I’ll point out that unlike his counterpart, Gausman continues to struggle in all “night” games this year, just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that New York is 18-10 (+6.6 units) this season following a victory, while Baltimore is 10-13 (-4 units) following a loss. 

All things considerd, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (6:10 EST).

I like Cleveland to build off yesterday’s 9-4 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up no runs off four hits and one walk while striking out eight over seven innings to earn the victory over the Yanks on Friday. 

I’m not going to read too much into this one start though as this was just Manaea’s second quality start over his last seven outings. And note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this year by going just 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-1, 2.82), who after holding the hot-hitting Astros scoreless over seven innings, was unable to keep the momentum rolling in a 6-4 loss to KC on Friday, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings of work. 

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is now 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Oakland is only 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five following a loss. 

I like Clevinger to get back on track here and look for him to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Miami Marlins (1:10 EST).

The bottom line is I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Aaron Nola (2-2, 4.34 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings in a loss against the Reds on Friday. 

Nola has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 3.83 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Angels on Friday, also going on to strike out six. 

Straily has been hitting his stride of late, posting a very respectable 2.74 ERA and a tiny 0.91 WHIP. 

Note that Straily has been particularly sharp at home this season as well, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA.

I feel Straily isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (10:10 EST).

I think the defending champs will bounce back here after falling 5-2 yesterday.

The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler (2-0, 1.93 ERA) who gave up a single run off four hits and two walks while striking out one over five innings in a victory over the Giants on Thursday. 

Butler has now won two of his three starts and owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80) who held the Mets to one run off three hits over five innings on Thursday. Prior to that call-up start, Lamet looked pretty good in the minors with a 3.23 ERA and 11.45 K/9 ratio.

I’ll point out though that San Diego has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors already this year going just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Chicago is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a loss.

Play the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Robbie Ray has been pretty good this year, but I think Ivan Nova isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers considering how well he’s done this season. I look for Pittsburgh to build off yesterday’s 4-3 victory. 

Ray (4-3, 3.45 ERA) went seven shutout innings with nine K’s in a 4-0 win over the Brewers on Thursday. Ray has turned in back-to-back gems, but previous to that had posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over a five-start stretch.

Nova (5-3, 2.83) gave up four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out one over nine innings in a win over the Braves on Thursday. 

These are two hurlers coming in on top form, but note that Arizona is just 6-10 (-4.6 units) this year on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 (+2.1 units) at home when the money line is in the same range.

I like Nova to outduel Ray and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Washington fell at home to the Padres yesterday afternoon, while the Giants smashed the Braves 7-1. I think the Nationals get back on track this evening though as I look for Tanner Roark to get the better of his volatile counterpart.

Roark (4-2, 4.32 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Mariners on Wednesday, allowing one run off eight hits while striking out eight over seven innings in the eventual 5-1 victory. 

The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-5, 5.28) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings while walking three in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

I’ll point out that Washington is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year against left-handed starters, while San Francisco is 12-18 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters. 

This matchup favors Roark and the hard-hitting Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST).

Although Josh Tomlin has seen better days, I like the Tribe to bounce back here after yestreday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy (4-2, 2.92 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Yanks on Tuesday. 

Duffy has looked better of late, but note that this is a spot in which the Royals have really struggled in this year, going just 4-11 (-7.6 units) in all “day” games.

Tomlin (2-6, 6.70) gave up five runs off nine htis while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. 

Tomlin has been “hit-or-miss” this season (mostly “miss”), but note that if the Indians have done well in one area so far in 2017, it’s been in all “day” games where they’re 10-5 (+1.1 units) thus far.

I like Tomlin to fight and match his hot counterpart and for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (1:05 EST).

I think the Rangers offer pretty good value here to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (1-4, 3.18 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Boston on Tuesday. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button yet though if your a Cashner fan, as it was the first time he’s allowed more than two earned runs since his first start of the year. 

Prior to this rough outing Cashner had put together four consecutive quality starts.

The home side counters with Joe Biagini (1-2, 3.75) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out three over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Biagini has struggled of late, allowing nine runs over his last 8.1 innings spanning two starts. 

I’ll point out that Texas is 7-4 (+3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Toronto is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four in the same position.

After losing three straight in Boston and the first two games of this series, enough is enough as far as the Rangers are concerned this afternoon. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9:10 EST).

I think the Rockies will build off yesterday’s 10-0 beatdown of the Cards yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (4-3, 4.81 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Giants on Sunday, allowing one earned run off five hits and three walks over 6.1 innings. Wainwright has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s now given up at least three walks in all four of his May starts to this point. 

And if Wainwright has had one glaring weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s an atrocious 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (5-2, 3.31) who gave up four runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Reds on Sunday. Freeland has now given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this year. 

Freeland’s periperhals suggest that rockier times could be ahead, but regardless the rookie has looked sharp to this point, especially at home where he’s 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA (and that’s saying something when Coors Field is involved).

I’ll also point out that St. Louis is just 4-6 (-2.8 units) against southpaw’s this year, while the Rockies are 22-13 (+8.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price here, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST).

I had a play on LA last night and it would go on to beat the Cubs 4-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance on Saturday night as well. 

The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-4, 4.82) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Monday. It was the second straight start that the veteran has failed to get into the sixth frame (note the he’d also go on to give up two home runs for the second game in a row as well, while he’d also hit two batters). 

The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (4-1, 3.76) who gave up one run off three hits while walking one and striking out five over six innings ina  6-3 victory over Miami on Sunday. 

McCarthy has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned of late, but note that he’s been strong in front of the home town crowd to this point, going 2-0 with a highly respectable 3.68 ERA at Chavez Ravine.

I’ll point out that Chicago is just 2-6 (-4.3 units) on the road this year when the money line is between +125 to -125, while LA is 19-8 (+4.8 units) at home this season.

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I like Arizona to build off its 4-2 victory last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.82 ERA) who went 8.2 innings in a win over the White Sox on Monday, allowing one run off four hits and one walk while striking out a season-high 12. 

So far through ten starts Greinke is on pace for one of his best campaigns of his career. To go along with his sparkling 2.82 ERA, Greinke also sports a tiny 0.97 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (2-1, 4.25) who gave up six runs off seven hits (including three dingers) while walking three and striking out just two over four innings in a 13-6 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. 

Anderson has been solid overall this year though, but I’ll point out that the Brewers are just 7-9 (-1.2 units) already in all “day” games, while Arizona is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four in the same position.

Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when properly judging starting pitching and in this case I think Greinke has a major advantage. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 EST).

After yesterday’s 5-2 defeat, I like the Phillies to bounce back this afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.75 ERA) who was shelled for six runs over five innings in a setback to Colorado on Sunday. In the disastrous outing he’d give up nine hits (including four dingers), while walking two and hitting one.

Note that Arroyo has been particularly horrible on the road this year by going 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA.

The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-5, 4.70) who also comes in off a loss to the Rockies on Monday, allowing four runs off nine hits with no walks across six innings. Eickhoff has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others, but note Philadelphia is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three following a loss.

And I’ll also point out that the Reds are just 2-4 (-1.8 units) this season when the money line is between +125 to -125. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. If this was three years ago, Jake Arrieta would have been a -200 favorite on the road.

But that was then and this is now. Arrieta (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been hit-or-miss for a while now, although he does come in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits over six innings. He had lost two straight previous to that and note that he owns an atrocious 11.25 ERA in the first innings of his starts this season. 

Arrieta’s peripherals suggest rockier times ahead as well and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 3-3, 5.73 record/ERA.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (5-0, 1.88) who has been spectacular over his last three starts, allowing just 13 hits while posting a 25:4 K/W across 18.1 scoreless innings of work. For the year he’s posted a 52:13 K/W over seven starts apanning 43 innings.

Note that Wood has been paricularly dominant at home as well going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA. 

I think Wood should/could easily be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I think this interleague matchup favors Dan Straily and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (4-5, 4.61 ERA) who earned a win over the Mets on Sunday despite giving up five runs over five innings. 

Chavez has been particularly pedestrian on the road this year with a 1-3, 4.44 ERA record.

Straily (2-3, 3.70) looked pretty good in a win over the Dodgers on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. To go along with his decent 3.70 ERA, Straily also owns a tidy 1.03 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 ratio. 

Note that Straily has been particularly effective at home this year with a tiny 1.95 ERA.

For this pick I’m primarily focusing on the starting pitchers and in this case, there’s no question in my mind that Straily has a big upper-hand in this matchup. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry