Cappers Sports Picks

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:15 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and I look for the hard-hitting Dodgers to avenge yesterday’s blowout loss.

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (1-1, 3.38 ERA) who has looked decent in his limited time this year, starting two games and pitching eight innings, allowing three earned runs off seven hits in that span. 

Hill most recently threw five shutout frames in a rehab game at High-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday and note that he was 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road last year. 

The home side counters with Ty Blach (0-2, 4.88) who has been hit or miss all season, most recently coming off a decent outing against the Reds on Thursday, holding them to two runs off five hits over seven innings, walking one and striking out two in the 3-2 loss. Note that he owns a poor 2.3 K/9 strikeout rate so far this season.

Blach has had some success against the Dodgers already this year, but note that LA is already 11-5 (+3 units) this season following a loss, while the Giants are only 4-11 (-8.6 units) following a victory.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (8:15 EST).

I like the hard-hitting Red Sox to take Game 1 of this interleague series.

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 2.80 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out five in a win over Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his 2.80 ERA, Rodriguez also sports a very nice 1.13 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 with a 30.3 strikeout percentage. 

The home side counters with Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.75) who surprised everyone with a nearly flawless start to the 2017 campaign, but who now comes into this one off his worst outing of the season, allowing four runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over four innings in a win over Miami on Wednesday. 

Lynn struggled with his command, throwing just 61 of 104 pitches for strikes. 

I’ll point out that Boston is 12-5 (+5.8 units) this season following a loss and already 6-3 (+2.8 units) in all interleague games, while St. Louis is just 2-7 (-6.8 units) when playing with a day off and only 5-6 (-2.1 units) against teams with winning records. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on Boston

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:15 EST).

I like the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia (2-2, 5.77 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Tuesday. All five runs came in the second frame. Sabathia has so far been hit-or-miss in 2017, note that he was 6-4 with a 3.26 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with the volatile Jason Hammel (1-4, 5.97) who was rocked for seven runs off 13 hits and a walk over seven innings in a 12-1 loss to the Rays on Wednesday. 

Like Sabathia, Hammel had a pretty good 2016 (finishing 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA), but just like his veteran counterpart today, he’s also been a train-wreck this year.

I’ll point out though that the Yanks are 16-11 (+2.9 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Royals are only 4-5 (-1.1 units) against southpaws.

I think we’re getting great value on New York in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AMERICAN LEAGUE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST).

I think Chris Archer and the Rays have much better than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Archer (3-1, 3.04 ERA) comes in off his strongest performance of the year, going eight scoreless while striking out 11 in a 12-1 win over the Royals on Wednesday. He’s now posted back-to-back starts with 11 K’s. And note that he’s posted a respectable 3.20 ERA on the road so far this year.

The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 1.86) who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven shutout innings against Toronto on Tuesday, walking none and striking out seven in the process. At first glance Carrasco’s numbers are sparkling, but his .211 BABIP suggest some regression is imminent. Note that he owned a pedestrian 4.29 ERA at home last year. 

I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay is already 4-2 (+3.8 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is only 7-8 (-6.6 units) in front of the home town crowd.

Play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees (7:35 EST).

Houston took Game 1 of this series on Friday and yesterday’s game was postponed. This is the second game of a double-header and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Masahiro Tanaka and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (4-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Braves on Tuesday. Morton is starting to show “cracks in the armor,” as he’d go on throw just 48 of his 84 pitches for strikes. 

It’s hard to get a read on Morton at this point, as he’s looked quite good at times and pretty poor in others.

Tanaka (5-1, 4.36) gave up four runs off ten hits while walking one and striking out six over seven innings in a 10-4 win over the Red Sox on Monday. 

It was Tanaka’s fifth straight victory and he’s now given up just one walk combined over his last three outings. 

While his 4.36 ERA is pedestrian, his 2.3 W/9 ratio is spectacular. 

Note that Tanaka was 7-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home last season. 

I think the value in this matchup is on Tanaka and the home side, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

Houston has taken the first two games of this series, but I like the Yanks to bounce back in the third game.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.64 ERA) who gave up three runs on four hits (including two dingers) and four walks while striking out one in a fortunate 5-3 win over the Angels on Sunday. 

So far Fiers has given up a major-league leading 14 home runs over 30.1 innings of work. Note that he wasn’t particularly effective on the road last year, posting a poor 4.99 ERA.

The home side counters with Luis Severino (2-2, 3.40) who gave up one run off four hits while walking one and striking out nine over seven innings in an unforuntate no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. 

Severino now owns an impressive 45:7 K/W ratio in 39.2 innings spanning six starts this year. 

I think the day off yesterday benefits the home side more in this situation, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST).

I had a play on the Tribe yesterday and they’d unfortuantely fall 1-0. With what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it today though, I like Cleveland to bounce back this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jose Berrios (0-0, 0.00) who makes his season debut this afternoon. Berrios was dominant over five Triple-A outings, allowing five runs spanning six starts, a performance which gave him another shot at the big show. 

To say Berrios struggled in his rookie year though would be a bit of an understatement, as he’d post an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over 14 starts.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.00) who went six innings of scoreless one hit ball, walking four and striking out five in a spot-start victory over the Royals on Sunday. Before getting the call up on Saturday, Clevinger had posted a tiny 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to go along with 32 K’s over six starts in the minors. 

Note that he was 2-1 with a respectable 3.54 ERA in all home apperances last season.

I’ll also point out that Minnesota is just 7-10 (-3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Cleveland is 7-3 (+1.2 units) in the same position. 

I’m banking on Clevinger outdueling his counterpart, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Dylan Bundy has been hot of late for the Orioles, but I like Kansas City to build off its 6-0 win in Tampa Bay last night and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Bundy (5-1, 2.17 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Saturday. So far he’s been spot on this year, but I’ll point out that he owned a poor 5.21 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.50) who has gotten progressively better with each outing in 2017, coming in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out two over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to Cleveland on Sunday. 

Note that Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last season.

I’ll point out that Baltimore is already just 2-3 (-1.5 units) this season with a day off, while KC has been turning things around of late, having already gone 6-5 (+2 units) in the month of May.

Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.26 ERA) who has been hit or miss all year and who comes in off a no-decision against the Dodgers on Friday, allowing one run off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. Chacin though is likely the biggest “Jekyl And Hyde” hurler in all of MLB right now, giving up just one total run in three home outings, compared to 23 runs over four road starts. 

Note that Chacin was just 2-6 with a 5.85 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.18) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to the Orioles on Friday.

Gonzalez has now allowed three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts and note that he owned a very respectable 3.29 ERA in all “night” games a year ago.

In my opinion, Gonzalez should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

The Indians had Thursday off and while Ervin Santana has been hot of late, I still think that the Twins are poised for a letdown here after they held on for a 7-6 win in Chicago just last night.

Santana (5-1, 1.72 ERA) actually comes in off his worst outing of the year and I think is primed for another letdown here as well (the Red Sox blasted him for six earned runs, including four home runs over six frames.)

I’m not overreacting to one poor start, but I do think this is a bad spot for Minnesota regardless.

The home side counters with Josh Tomlin (2-3, 7.12) who comes in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off three hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Kansas City on Saturday. 

After a couple of disastrous starts to open 2017, Tomlin has settled down and has posted quality outings in three of his last four tries. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five against right-handed starters, while Cleveland is 12-6 (+3.9 units) in the same position this year. 

Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Ty Blach and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Bronson Arroyo (3-2, 6.53 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a victory over these very Giants last Friday. Arroyo for the most part has been completely erratic this season and I’m expecting some predictable regression this evening.

Blach is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA and gave up the ten runs in his team’s loss throwing opposite Arroyo last week. 

Blach has a chance to redeem himself here and I think he’s going to be able to outduel his suspect vetrean counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (7:05 EST).

I think this is great value on arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet right now.

The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. 

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Pineda has been solid to start the year, note though that he was just 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA at home last season.

Pineda gave up two solo home runs against the Cubs and while he’s been sharp, I think that Keuchel is on a completely different level right now.

I’m banking on Keuchel outdueling Pineda, play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Toronto has won two series in a row and in my opinion, this opening night matchup against the Mariners also works in its favor.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase De Jong (0-2, 6.75 ERA) who makes his third start of his career today, getting crushed by the Indians in his first outing, only to then rebound against the Rangers last week, giving up one run over six innings. So far he has six K’s and five walks over 13.1 innings of major league work. 

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (1-2, 3.14) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. 

Estrada wasn’t at his best, but note that he came into that one having given up just four earned runs over his previous four starts combined. 

Toronto is starting to find ways to win and I think can full advantage of this mismatch. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:10 EST).

Is LA a “better” team than Pittsburgh? Most would say yes and certainly their win/loss records would agree with that, as the Dodgers are 19-14, while the Pirates are 14-19. 

I don’t however think Kenta Maeda should be instilled as such a massive favorite against Chad Kuhl, who I think can match Maeda inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I think the value clearly swings to the underdog.

Kuhl (1-2, 5.54 ERA) had his last start cut short due to rain, giving up no runs off two hits while also striking out two against the Brewers on Friday. 

Kuhl has had one disastrous start this season, but so far he’s held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his five trips to the hill. And he has to be feeling confident tonight as note that last season he was a solid 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA on the road.

Maeda (2-2, 5.81) gave up two runs off three hits and three walks while striking out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Friday. Maeda has looked a lot better after a rocky start to the 2017 campaign, but I still think he’s being completely over-valued in this spot.

And I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is already 2-1 (+1.4 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses, while LA is just 8-10 (-7.2 units) this year following a victory. 

After yesterday’s 4-3 setback, I think Kuhl and the Pirates offer tremendous value in this matchup. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that Lance Lynn is getting nearly enough respect in this matchup.

Lynn (4-1, 2.04 ERA) most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Braves on Friday, striking out six and walking two in the process.

Lynn has quietly won four in a row with just two runs allowed and 22 K’s over 25 innings. To go along with his sparkling 2.04 ERA, he also owns a very respectable 1.08 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 for the year. 

The home side counters with Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.40), who gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Friday. 

Koehler has now given up at least three runs in five straight starts. To go along with his ballooned 5.40 ERA, he also owns an unimpressive 1.50 WHIP. Given their options at the moment, Koehler’s spot in the Marlins starting rotation looks safe for now.

I think Lynn and the Cardinals build off yesterday’s 6-5 victory. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (3:10 EST).

After getting crushed 10-4 in the afternoon game, the Cubbies bounced back with an 8-1 victory in the second. I think Kyle Hendricks and the defending champs can carry that momentum over here.

Hendricks (2-1, 3.51 ERA) comes in off his best outing of the year so far, going six innings against the Yanks on Friday, giving up no runs off six hits while also striking out five in an unfortunate no-decision. 

Hendricks has now allowed just two runs over his last three starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, last year he owned a very respectable 2.95 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with German Marquez (0-2, 7.31) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. In his 2017 debut at Coors Field he gave up eight runs in four innings to the Nationals. 

Chicago has struggled for the most part to open 2017, but it does seem to be working out some of the issues. Starting pitching has been a factor early on for sure, but there’s no question that Hendricks is now trending in the correct direction.

Coors Field is a nightmare for every pitcher, but I’m giving Hendricks the big nod in this matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I don’t think that Robbie Ray is getting enough respect in this matchup.

The Tigers hand the ball to Justin Verlander (2-2, 4.21 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and four walks over seven innings in a victory over the Indians on Tuesday. After two ugly outings, Verlander has put together two decent ones. 

The home side counters with Ray (2-2, 3.47) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Washington on Thursday. To go along with his solid 3.47 ERA, Ray also owns a 1.27 WHIP, 3.23 FIP and 12.1 K/9 for the year. 

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 5-7 (-1.5 units) in all “night” games this season and only 6-8 (-1 unit) on the road, while Arizona is 12-5 (+7.7 units) at home, 14-11 (+3 units) in all night contests and 3-0 (+3.9 units) already in all interleague matchups.

Verlander has to bat today for the first time this season, something that always throws a small wrinkle into the day-to-day routine. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:40 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Both on the mound and at the plate. 

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (3-1, 4.00 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over the Orioles on Wednesday. So far the crafty southpaw has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his starts. 

Also note that Pomeranz owns an awesome 34/9 K/W over 27 innings of work. Pomeranz posted a highly respectable 2.75 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Wily Peralta (4-2, 4.88) who gave up two runs and two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a  2-1 loss to the Cards on Tuesday. 

Peralta has looked brilliant at times this year and quite poor in others. Note that he was just 5-5 with a ballooned 5.23 ERA at home last season.

I’ll also point out that Boston is already 5-1 (+4 units) in interleague games this year and 15-12 (+1 unit) against right-handed starters, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 (-1 unit) against lefties.

I like the hard-hitting Red Sox in this matchup, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Interleague SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs last night and they lost 5-4 to the Yanks in 18 innings. Normally I’m not one to “flip flop” on a team from day to day, but MLB is different because of the starting pitchers.

Each game has to be looked at serperately and despite playing a marathon contest last night, I still believe this one higly favors Masahiro Tanaka and the Bronx Bombers.

Tanaka (4-1, 4.46 ERA) wasn’t at his best in a win over Toronto on Sunday, allowing four runs off eight hits and no walks over 6.1 innings. 

Tanaka has now gone 19 innings since walking his last hitter and has won four consecutive starts. He’ll now look to return to form, note that he was 7-3 with a 2.34 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Rookie Davis (1-1, 7.36), who has been hit-or-miss to open up his career. Last time out he held the Pirates scoreless over five innings. In his previous start he was shelled for eight runs off 11 hits over two innings against Milwaukee.

And previous to his last outing, he’d been unable to complete five innings in any of his five other starts. 

Clearly the book is still out on Davis. 

I’ll point out that New York is already 7-2 (+5.6 units) this year in interleague games and 14-8 (+4.2 units) against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 13-30 (-14.9 units) in its last 43 interleague contests.

If this was the end of the season and the Yanks had just played an 18 inning game the night before, this would likely be a great spot to go against “The Evil Empire.” But the season has just started and I don’t think fatigue is going to be a factor whatsoever here.

Lay the price with confidence, play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

The Yanks smashed the Cubs 11-6 yesterday after taking the opener of this three-game interleague series by a score of 3-2.

Suffice it to say, I think the defending champs will bounce back in the finale and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (2-2, 3.86 ERA) who gave up five runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays on Monday. Severino has been hit-or-miss this year, note that he was just 2-4 with a 5.52 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Jon Lester (1-1, 3.67) who picked up his first win of the season against the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up three runs off four hits and five K’s spanning six frames. 

Lester has to be feeling good about his chances here today as well as note that last season he was a spectacular 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA at home.

As mentioned off the top, I absolutely believe that Chicago is the more motivated side tonight. And I also think that Lester has a much bigger advantage in this matchup than what Las Vegas wants us to believe.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:15 EST).

The Bronx Bombers got a two out, two strike, three-run shot at the top of the ninth inning to beat the Cubs yesterday afternoon.

Clearly that can’t be sitting well with the defending champs, who I expect to bounce back in a big way this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits and four walks over five frames in a no-decision against the Orioles on Sunday.

Clearly the rookie will have his hands full in Chicago this evening.

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (2-1, 6.23) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up seven runs off seven hits over just 1.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Monday. 

I’m not going to read too much into one crummy start. Those types of outings happen to even the best at some point of the season. Note that Anderson gave up just a single earned run over seven innings in a win over Pittsburgh in his previous start. 

I like Chicago to bounce back here and take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The bottom line is that I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Garza (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits while striking out seven batters over 6.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Sunday. This was Garza’s second start of the year. In his first he only lasted four innings and needed 98 pitches to get through it. 

It’s one thing to dominate the Braves, but quite another to domiante the Pirates I think. Especially at PNC Park. Note that Garza was terrible on the road last year, going just 2-6 with a ballooned 5.43 ERA.

The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (1-3, 3.50) who gave up three runs off five hits while also striking out seven over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. 

Cole has now given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his past four starts, posting a 2.16 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 ratio in that span. Note that Cole owned a very respectable 3.53 ERA at home last season.

I like Pittsburgh to build off yesterday’s 4-0 victory and I expect Cole to outduel his yet truly untested counterpart. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I played against the Dodgers twice earlier this week as the Giants would go on to cash as big underdogs in each instance. While he struggled to open the 2017 campaign, LA pitcher Kenta Maeda comes in off his best start of the season and I think he’ll parlay that effort with another big performance and easily outduel his volatile counterpart this evening.

Maeda (2-2, 6.58 ERA) gave up two runs to go along with eight K’s over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Friday. Maeda was hit hard in his first three starts, but looks to have found his footing again. Note that he was 9-6 with a 3.74 ERA on the road last season and 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA in all “night” games.

Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.82 ERA) comes in off a victory over the Giants on Saturday, going five innings and giving up three runs while also walking two. 

Chacin has been hit-or-miss all year, note that he was just 4-7 with a poor 4.92 ERA in all “night” games last season. 

I like Maeda to build off his last outing and look for the Dodgers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

Simply put, I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (1-2, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. Straily has bee hit or miss this year, looking brilliant at times and pedestrian in others. 

Note that while Straily owned a superb 8-1, 2.90 ERA at home last season, he was just 6-7 with a poor 4.70 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Matt Andriese (1-1, 3.86) who comes in off his first poor outing of the year, giving up four runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday. 

Despite the sub-par performance, Andriese has still allowed just eight earned runs over his first five trips to the mound.

I’ll point out that Miami is still just 7-11 (-5 units) this year in all “night” games, while Tampa is 11-6 (+6.1 units) in the same position.

After yesterday’s 10-6 setback, look for Andriese and the Rays to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (2-2, 2.17 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday. Holland has been a pleasant surprise so far for the White Sox, but I’m not ready to say that he’s one of the top pitchers in the league quite yet. 

I’ll point out that Holland was just 2-7 with a ballooned 6.05 ERA in all road games last season. 

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (0-2, 2.30), who gave up two runs off two hits while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Twins on Friday. His 2.30 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while also posting an 8.0 K/9 ratio rank among the best in the AL. 

Interestingly, Kennedy ranks last in all of MLB for run support this year (just 1.4 runs of support per outing). Suffice it to say, I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to finally get some offensive support this evening.

As note that the White Sox are just 6-9 against right-handed starters this year, while KC is 6-2 (+5.3 units) this season when playing against a team with a winning record. 

I think the Royals build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory and expect Kennedy to outduel his over-achieving counterpart. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SUPER-DOG BLOWOUT is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST).

I played on the Giants on Monday night and Johnny Cueto would wind up getting the better of Clayton Kershaw with San Francisco going on to cash as a large underdog.

The Dodgers got their revenge in last night’s 13-5 blowout win, but I think that the Giants can bounce back here in the finale and steal another one going away.

San Francisco hands the ball to Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 6.32 ERA), who like Cueto, has also struggled to open the 2017 campaign, but who also comes in off his best outing of the season, going seven innings, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out five in a 4-3 win over the Padres on Friday. 

The Shark was decent on the road last year, going 7-5 with a 4.03 ERA and was 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Julio Urias (0-0, 1.59) who held these very Giants to one run off four hits over 5.2 innings in his first game after getting called up from Triple-A on Thursday. He was far from perfect though, as he’d go on to walk four in the eventual 5-1 victory. Also note that the 20 year old was pulled after 90 pitches.

And I’ll also point out that San Francisco is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in its last four following a loss, while LA is just 5-9 (-8.6 units) following a victory this season.

I think the book is still out on Urias, who I think is capable of being brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others. Samardzija got back on track in his last outing and should be able to match his younger counterpart inning for inning.

And in a situation like that, I think the value is on the underdog. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

The Red Sox finally provided ace Chris Sale with some support yesterday as Boston pulled away for the 5-2 victory.

I think the home side will build off that effort and I look for Drew Pomeranz to outduel his volatile counterpart.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (1-2, 7.50 ERA) who was shelled for five runs over six innings in a fortunate no-decision in an eventual 14-11 extra-innings loss to New York on Friday. 

Gausman has now been rocked for at least five runs in each of his last three starts. Note that while he was 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA at home last year, he was a poor 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Pomeranz (2-1, 4.15) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a 5-4 win over the Cubs on Friday. It was his best start of the year and while his ERA isn’t spectacular, his 27:7 K/W ratio over 21.2 innings is fantastic. 

I’ll point out that Baltimore is just 28-29 (-3.6 units) in its last 57 played in the month of May, while Boston is is already 9-6 (+1.2 units) at Fenway this year.

Pomeranz struggled in his transition from the Senior Circuit to the Junior League, but it does now finally appear as if he’s made the adjustment. 

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the Red Sox.

Godo luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

These starting pitchers have been pretty equal so far to open the 2017 campaign, but I think that Tanner Roark and the Nationals have a bigger advantage in this spot than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

Walker (3-1, 3.94 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits while striking out 11 over eight innings in a 6-2 victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Thursday. It was a dominant outing, as Walker is finally starting to show his full potential. But I’ll point out that he was just 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA on the road last season.

Roark (3-0, 3.64) is coming off an outstanding outing himself, holding the Rockies to two runs off five hits and four walks over five innings at Coors Field in an eventual victory last Wednesday. 

Roark was dominant at home last year, going 9-6 with a 2.72 ERA. 

Washington had a day off on Monday after crushing the Mets 23-5 on Sunday and I expect that offensive momentum to get carried over here.

All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST).

I think Johnny Cueto and the San Francisco Giants have more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. The likelihood of Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw having a catastrophic meltdown tonight is highly unlikely, so for this pick I’m expecting Cueto to match the crafty southpaw inning for inning. 

I like the Giants’ chances in a scenario like this, so the value is simply too great too turn down in my professional opinion.

Cueto (3-1, 5.10 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up three runs off seve hits while striking out five in a no-decision against these very Dodgers last Wednesday. 

I think Cueto’s numbers will start to return to norm sooner rather than later. Note that he was 10-2 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last year.

Kershaw (4-1, 2.29) gave up one run over seven innings to go along with seven K’s in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about the perenial Cy Young candidate, so I won’t bother.

I simply feel that Cueto is on the cusp of returning to prominence and he and the hungry visiting side offer tremendous value in this upset position. 

I’ll also point out that the Giants are 42-17 (+22.8 units) in their last 59 games played in the month of May, while LA is already a poor 5-8 (-6.4 units) this season following a victory. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

The Cubs smashed the Red Sox 7-4 on Saturday and I think the defending champs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night Sunday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 4.50 ERA) who started the year slowly with three below average outings, before finally putting the pieces together in his last start, going six scoreless while giving up four hits and two walks against the Pirates on Tuesday. 

Note that Hendricks was 7-6 with a 2.95 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 3.12), who also started the year struggling, but who also comes in off a dominant effort, allowing one hit and five walks over six shutout frames in a 6-2 win over the Orioles on Sunday. 

Note that Rodriguez was 0-4 with a 6.02 ERA at home last season.

The trends heavily favor the Cubs today, as note that Chicago is 7-2 (+4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Boston is only 5-8 (-4.4 units) in the same position.

I think Hendricks is the correct call here. Rodriguez is coming off a good start, but I believe the Cubs are being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (9:05 EST).

I think the Matt Cain and the home side build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jhoulys Chacin (2-3, 5.90 ERA) who most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over six innings in a 7-6 loss to the Diamondbacks. 

Chacin has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concered to open the 2017 campaign. Note that he was particularly bad in this spot last season, going 2-6 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. 

Cain (2-0, 2.42 ERA) looks to continue his strong start to the season after being cleared to play after a recent small leg issue which caused him to leave his Monday start early. Before that though he fired six frames of shutout ball against the dangerous Dodgers.

Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when tying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, Cain clearly has a big advantage. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a very fair price in this matchup, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

Boston fell 3-0 to New York last night, wasting another big effort from ace Chris Sale. The Red Sox will be looking to atone, which I think spells doom for Jake Arrieta and the visiting Cubs.

Arrieta (3-0, 3.65 ERA) was most recently shelled for five runs (four earned) off eight hits over six innings in a fortunate victory over the Reds on Saturday. Arrieta has now given up at least three runs in each of his last three outings.

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 4.80) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Orioles on Friday, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out four over six innings in what would turn out to be an unfortunate loss once it was all said and done.

Despite a 4.60 ERA, Pomeranz has been very sharp in two of his three starts this year. 

I think Pomeranz will outduel Arrieta and I look for Boston’s explosive offense to finally get some production. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

I think Kendall Graveman and the A’s offer tremendous value in this spot as I look for Oakland to respond after falling 8-5 last night. 

Graveman (2-0, 2.00 ERA) is back in the rotation after a ten-day stint on the DL because of a shoulder issue. He owns a 12:5 K:BB ratio and 1.00 WHIP over his first 18 innings of work. He worked through an intense bullpen session on Friday and reportedly feels fantastic.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 4.76) who was initially supposed to start against the Jays on Monday, but who had it pushed back until today. The veteran has struggled by serving up seven home runs over his first four starts, lucky too that several have been of the solo variety. 

Graveman comes in on top form, while Nolasco clearly has more questions than answers at the moment. For the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Graveman has a big advantage. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price, play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

After getting spanked 8-0 last night, I expect the home side to respond in kind this afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (0-2, 5.31 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in Friday’s 3-1 loss to the A’s. Iwakuma struggled in spring training, giviving up ten earned runs over three of his last four starts and those early issues have clearly been carried over into the regular season. He also issued multiple walks for the third time in four starts.

Iwakuma has now given up nine earned runs on 12 hits (including three dingers) and four walks over 8.1 innings spanning his last two trips to the hill.

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (1-2, 6.04) who gave up four runs off three hits and six walks to go along with four K’s over five innings in 6-3 loss to the Twins on Friday. 

Verlander shut out Minnesota over his first five innings, but then everything can unravelled in the sixth. Verlander has now given up 13 runs over his last two starts. 

Clearly not the results he was hoping for, but the good news is that his fastball velocity remains over 94 MPH. 

I don’t think there’s any need to panic if you’re a Verlander fan, as he clearly has a strong track record and should get his numbers normalized as the season progresses. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is already just 6-10 (-4.4 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Detroit is 9-5 (+4.4 units) in all “day” games. 

While I don’t have a ton of faith in either of these starters, I certainly have a lot more in Verlander at this point. Iwakuma has been sliding since the end of last season and after getting thumped yesterday, this Detroit line-up will be primed for some revenge. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 2-1 loss.

The visitors hands the ball to Alex Wood (1-0, 3.29 ERA), who was rocked for four runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Wood was making a spot start in place on the injured Rich Hill and would struggle. Wood had looked pretty decent before that in a “swingmans” role, but note that he was horrible in this spot last season, going 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (3-1, 5.25), who also comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. Coors Field is tough on all pitchers and Cueto was no exception.

Cueto has two good outings and two poor ones so far this year. Both poor ones came in difficult parks, Coors and Chase Field.

Cueto though was dominant at AT&T Park last year, going 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that LA is already just 2-7 (-8.3 units) this year after a victory, while San Francsico is 56-50 (+8.4 units) in its last 106 against southpaws.

I don't think Cueto is getting much respect in this matchup, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Zack Godley struggled in the majors last year, going 5-4 with a 6.39 ERA in his rookie season. 

Godley is back for his debut tonight though and I think he’ll outduel his volatile counterpart.

Godley finished his minors stint by posting a 2.55 ERA through 17.2 innings.

The visitors counter with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 3.44) who comes in off a decent outing on Friday against the Marlins, holding them to one run off three hits over seven innings in the eventual 5-3 victory.

Cahill faces a much stiffer test in Arizona’s big bats though obviously. The Friars are 8-14 overall this year, while the D-Backs are 14-8. 

Also note that San Diego is already a horrible 4-10 (-4.3 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 9-5 (+5.2 units) in the same position. 

I look for Arizona to build off yesterday’s 9-3 victory, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I think this line could easily be a lot larger.

The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (2-1, 2.19 ERA), who gave up thre runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in a 6-3 win over to the Tigers on Friday. The southpaw followed a similar pattern last year, only to then start falling apart once the calendar turned to May. 

The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (1-0, 2.77), who gave up one run off three scattered hits and two walks while striking out three over eight innings in a 6-2 win over Kansas City on Friday. Hamels would go on to throw 71 of his 107 pitches for strikes. 

The Twins blew out the Rangers 8-1 yesterday, so clearly the home side will be out to atone for the lacklustre effort. Also note that Minnesota is just 37-60 (-5 units) in its last 97 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 60-53 (+17.1 units) in its last 113 against left-handed starters.

Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakes are leading us to believe.

The Royals hand the ball to their ace Danny Duffy (2-0, 1.32 ERA) who went eight scoreless, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out five, in an unfortunate no-decision against Texas on Thursday. Duffy has posted 11 K’s and has held his opposition scoreless over his last 14 innings of work. 

So far the southpaw has four straight quality starts and note that he was particularly effective in this spot last year going 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Dylan Covey (0-1, 7.84), who was shelled for eight runs against the Yanks on Wednesday. After holding the Twins to one run in his MLB debut, Covey made an immediate regression. 

The book is still out on Covey, while Duffy enters on top form. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Tigers (2:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Fulmer (1-1, 3.00 ERA), who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks with five K’s in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. So far he’s opened the season with three straight quality outings. Fulmer dominated in this spot a year ago, going 5-0 with a tiny 1.78 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (0-2, 6.91), who most recently gave up three runs off eight hits while walking two and striking out two over 5.1 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Tribe on Monday. So far he holds a poor 9:5 K/BB ratio after three starts. 

Note that Gibson was a poor 2-4, 4.47 ERA in all “day” games last season and an even worse 1-8 with a ballooned 5.21 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I love Fulmer in this matchup and I think the Tigers can build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price here. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST).

“Recent performance” is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, there’s no question that Robbie Ray has the upper-hand in this matchup.

The visitors turn to the volatile Kenta Maeda (1-1, 7.07 ERA) who most recently was shelled for four runs off four hits over four innings to these very Diamondbacks last week, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Maeda is struggling in all facets and has yet to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his first three outings.

The home side counters with Robbie Ray (1-0, 1.96) who gave up two runs (one earned) off three hits while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. So far Ray has 24 K’s over 18.1 innings spanning three starts. And in that span the southpaw has allowed just four runs. 

Ray is the call here, tremendous value. I like Arizona to build off yesterday’s dominant 13-5 victory with a similar type performance tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST).

I think this is a matchup which favors the home side.

The visitors turn to veteran Charlie Morton (1-1, 2.81 ERA), who gave up five hits while walking two and striking out three over five scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over LA on Monday. Morton has looked decent early, but I’m not ready to crown him quite yet. Note that in 2015 (his last full season in the big leagues), he was just 3-5 with a poor 5.70 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Blake Snell (0-2, 2.76), who gave up four runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five in a loss to Boston on Monday. So for the sophomore has 13 K’s over his 16.1 innings of work.

Note that Snell was particularly effective at home last year, going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA. 

I think Snell is the correct call here as I look for the Rays to bounce back in front of the home town crowd after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

After getting clobbered 6-3 yesterday, I like the “Evil Empire” to find a way to get the job done tonight.

Michael Pineda (2-1, 3.44 ERA) gets nod for the visitors, he most recently gave up two runs off six hits while also striking out six over seven innings in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. 

Pineda laboured through his first start of the year, but has posted back-to-back gems, tallying 17 K’s through 14.2 innings of work, while only conceding three in that span.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (1-0, 0.90), who gave up one unearned run off seven hits over seven innings of work in his last outing. Taillon has been dominant, but if he had one weakness in his rookie season, it was his play in all “night” games, going just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.49 ERA.

Taillon finally has a letdown here. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST).

After falling 7-5 yesterday, I like St. Louis to bounce back on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (0-3, 7.24 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Sunday. Clearly Wainwright is struggling. He’s also coming off his worst year ever as a pro. Note that he was 10-5 with a 4.03 ERA in all night games last season.

The home side counters with Wily Peralta (3-0, 2.65) who gave up two runs off three hits and three walks over six innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. 

Peralta has so far looked pretty good, but I’ll caution in reading too much into his decent start, as note that he was just 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA a year ago.

I’m not writing off Wainwright yet and I think Peralta is playing above his head right now. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Boston Red Sox (12:35 EST).

No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I expect Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale to easily outduel his suspect counterpart.

Sale (1-1, 1.25 ERA) comes in off a tough luck loss to Detroit on Monday, going eight innings and giving up two runs off five hits and one walk to go along with ten K’s. So far Sale owns a “lights out” 17:2 K:BB ratio over 14.2 innings of work. Amazingly, Sale has received just one run of support this year. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to end in a big way this afternoon.

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (0-1, 3.50) who gave up four hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings in a win over Baltimore on Saturday. Estrada struggled to open the season, so I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing.

Note that he was a pedestrian 3-7 with a 3.57 ERA at home last year.

Estrada has been excellent for the Jays, but Sale is in an entirely different class of his own. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate, than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (1-1, 4.32 ERA), who gave up five runs off ten hits over five innings against the Dodgers on Friday.

Greinke has faced his former team four times since signing with Arizona and he’s been crushed in each instance. But with that awkward outing behind him, Greinke will look to return to form against the soft-hitting Padres. Note that he was 8-2 with a respectable 3.94 ERA on the road last season.

The visitors counter with confirmed “gas can” Jhoulys Chacin (1-2, 7.80) who was blasted for four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to Atlanta on Friday. 

I’ll point out that Arizona is already 6-3 (+4.4 units) this year against right-handed starters, while San Diego is just 3-6 (-1.5 units) in the same position. 

Greinke and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks offer great value in this spot. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

After falling 5-1 yesterday, I think the Tigers have a lot more than just a “puchers chance” in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmerman (1-1, 5.06 ERA) who looked great in his first start, but who struggled in his most recent, giving up five runs off four hits to go along with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Minnesota on Thursday. That was in stark contrast to his season debut in which he allowed just one run over six innings.

Zimmerman has all the tools in place to return to form and note that he was in fact very effective in this spot last year, going 4-2 with a tiny 2.63 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Chris Archer (2-0, 2.21), who struck out five and gave up one earned run over 5.2 innings in a 10-5 win over Boston on Friday. 

I’ll point out though that Detroit is already 3-2 (+2.2 units) this year on the road, while Tampa Bay is only 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four after holding its opponent to one or no runs in its previous outing.

I think the line value is simply too good to turn down here. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

The Red Sox took the opener of this series 7-6 last night. Boston is 9-5 overall on the year, while Toronto is just 2-11. 

Both of today’s starters have struggled with consistency this season.

Rick Porcello was the Cy Young award winner last year, which was a complete shock as up until 2016 he’d never shown dominance like that before. 

Porcello though has struggled this season, just 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA, most recently getting shelled for eight runs off eight hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 10-2 loss to the Rays. 

The Jays Francisco Liriano hasn’t been any better, so far he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. However, Liriano looked under control in his last start, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while stirking out ten over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Thursday. 

Toronto may be without slugger Josh Donaldson, but I don’t think it will matter. The Jays are a desperate team. I also think that Liriano has the advantage on the mound. 

Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on this hungry and underachieving home side. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Matt Cain (1-0, 4.82 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he gave up one run off five hits and three walks over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. 

Cain struggled in this spot last year though, going just 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA on the road and only 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 6.52), who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Hammel was 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA last year, which included going 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA in all “home” games and 11-5 with a 3.53 ERA in all “night” contests.

I’ll point out though that San Francisco is just 2-7 (-7.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while KC is 4-1 (+3.8 units) after a victory.

I like Hammel to bounce back and expect Cain to struggle in this interleague tilt. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

Both teams are struggling with offensive consistency to open the season, but I think that Danny Salazar has a bigger advantage on the mound tonight than what the bookmakers are leading us to beileve. 

Minnesota comes in off a 3-1, 10-inning loss to the White Sox, while Cleveland dropped two of three at home over the weekend, including a 4-1 setback to Detroit on Sunday. 

The Tribe have struggled with southpaws this year, so they’ll be happy to head to Minnesota, which features four righties in this series.

Kyle Gibson (0-1, 8.00 ERA) gets the call for the home side. He’s 2-3 with a 6.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Indians. 

Salazar is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts this year, but did have 11 K’s in his last outing. Also note that Salazar was pretty good on the road last year, going 6-4 with a respectable 3.57 ERA.

I’ll point out that Cleveland is 130-103 (+4.2 units) in its last 233 against right-handed starters, while Minnesota is just 96-134 (-20.8) units against right-handed starters.

I think the under-achieving Indians break out in a big way at the plate tonight against the struggling Gibson. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* INTERLEAGUE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (8:05 EST).

Adam Wainwright (0-2, 7.00 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors in this one, he most recently was shelled for six runs off 11 hits and two walks over four innings in a 14-6 loss to the Nationals on Monday. 

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.97), who went 7.2 innings of one-run ball in a victory over the Rays on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and striking out 11 with no walks. 

Pineda now owns a 17:0 K:BB ratio this season.

Wainwright is labouring, which I think comes back to hurt him again tonight. The Yanks come in off a 3-2 win on Saturday and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.

The correct call in this matchup is on Pineda. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Situational Stunner on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST).

Cleveland has so far underperformed, it’s now just 4-6 and looking up at the 7-3 Tigers after yesterday’s 7-6 loss.

Justin Verlander has looked pretty good to start the year for Detroit, but I think that Corey Kluber and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Verlander (1-0, 1.35 ERA) most recently gave up one unearned run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Red Sox on Monday. There was some room to read between the lines though, as he was in fact struggling to find the zone, needing 112 pitches to make it through the seven frames. 

Kluber (0-1, 5.25 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. 

A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, not that Kluber was 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year (also 6-4 with a 3.10 ERA in all “day” games).

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-4 (-1.6 units) in its last seven following a victory, while Cleveland is 16-5 (+10 units) in its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses.

I think Verlander takes a step back and look for Kluber to take a giant leap forward. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

After 111 career relief appearances, JC Ramirez will make his first ever major league start for the Angels tonight.

Suffice it to say, I think he’s going to fail spectacularly.

Ramirez has been sharp in relief this year, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But this is taking the 28-year old Nicaraguan completely out of his element.

And he draws a tough matchup as well in throwing opposite Royals’ ace Danny Duffy (1-0, 2.08 ERA), who most recently beat the Astros 7-3 on Saturday, allowing two runs off eight scattered hits spanning seven innings of work. 

KC plays with revenge here as well after LA took five of six in the season series a year ago.

Lay the price, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

The Braves are off to an awful start (2-6), but have to be feeling pretty confident in their home opener in their new ballpark with their ace on the mound. 

The Padres are 5-5, but send a confirmed “gas can” to the hill tonight. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the home side here.

Julio Teheran gets the nod for the Braves and so far he hasn’t allowed an earned run over 13 innings over his first two starts. Teheran dominated the Friars last year, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and striking out 16 to just one walk over 15 innings of work.

The vistors turn to Jhoulys Chacin, who was lost 13-4 to the Dodgers in his opener, but who looked better in his second start against the Giants, holding them to zero runs off three hits over 6 1/3’s innings. 

Note though that Chacin has struggled against Atlanta, going 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.05 ERA lifetime. 

Look for the Teheran to put on a show in his new park and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

The Mets beat the Marlins 9-8 in 16 innings last night, with Travis d’Arnaud’s home run off Adam Conley being the difference maker. Conley was supposed to start tonight, but Edison Volquez will be thrust into action. He’s 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA. 

The visitors counter with ace Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 0.69 ERA), who has held Marlins’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton to a .000 batting average in 12 matchups. 

Syndergaard is averaging 10.4 K’s per nine innings and has a 5.41 K to walk ratio. Note that he already beat the Marlins this year, 5-2 just last week.

Volquez is off normal rest, but he now faces a Mets’ line-up which leads the league with 20 homers, which is more than double Miami’s. 

This is a massive mismatch on the mound. I look for New York to come in as the more energized team here after last night’s marathon victory. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Baltimore is 5-2 this year. After getting smashed 8-1 in Boston Tuesday, the Orioles bounced back with a big 12-5 win last night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here.

Toronto is 1-7. It’s the worst start ever for the franchise. Are the Jays really as bad as their win/loss record would indicate? Clearly the answer to that one is “no.” 

The Jays have gotten decent pitching so far this year, but the offense has been a disaster. Toronto lost Edwin Encarnacion to free agency in the summer, which is significant, but still doesn’t even come close to explaining why this explosive line-up is struggling right now.

I don’t think it’s anything to worry about though. No matter how good your line-up is, at some point in the season it’s going to go through a “slump.” Unfortunately for the Jays, it’s coming right at the start of the year. I believe it’s only a matter of time before they start raking again.

And here’s the perfect opponent to try and get untracked against. Toronto opened its season at Baltimore with a two game set and lost 3-2 and 3-1 respectively. 

Kevin Gausman gets the call tonight, he went 5.1 innings against the Jays and gave up two runs off five hits. Gausman took a step back in his second start against the Yanks though, allowing four runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings. 

The home side counters with Francisco Liriano, who started the year on the DL, but who was activated on Tuesday. Liriano looked horrible in his first start, lasting just a third of an inning on April 7th, allowing five runs: “I think it was a little bit of everything,” Liriano said after he could not make it out of the first inning for just the second time in 257 career starts. “Overthrowing, mechanically, missing my spot. I just didn’t execute pitches. That’s the main thing. You have to execute pitches when you have men on base. I was getting behind in the count a lot and I didn’t execute pitches.”

I’ll point out that Baltimore is just 8-22 in Gausman’s last 30 road starts, while Toronto is 7-3 in its last ten during Game 1 of a series.

Gausman was just 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road last year. 

I like Liriano to shrug off his first start and to do just enough to help his team earn its second victory of the season. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (3:30 EST).

I think this is a big pitching mismatch.

The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side turns to Ricky Nolasco. Both are 0-1 to start the year.

So far the Rangers are hitting just .222 collectively, but they’ve made up for it with a big .436 slugging percentage, which ranks in the top ten. 

So far Darvish has allowed five earned runs over 13 innings spanning two starts this year. Darvish looked shaky in his first outing, but looked a lot better in his last start, allowing only one run over six frames, unfortuante to receive a loss due to a rare lack of offensive production. Suffice it to say, I expect that momentum to get carried over here.

Darvish will have to be sharp, as LA comes in as one of the highest scoring teams in the league, having already plated 41 so far this year. 

Nolasco though hasn’t looked overly impressive this year, most recently giving up two runs over six frames to the light-hitting Mariners. Note that he was just 3-7 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA at home last season.

I give Darvish the nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors in this matchup. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

LA has lost three of its last four after dropping the opener of this series on Monday night. The Dodgers managed just one run and four hits over six innings against southpaw Jon Lester. 

Today the visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy, who due to injury has been limited to just 63 innings over the last two seasons combined. In his 2017 debut against the soft-hitting Friars, he’d allow two runs and four hits over six innings with four K’s in the victory. 

Chicago counters with John Lackey, who gave up four runs and six hits over six innings, to go along with seven K’s and two walks in a loss to the Cards in his debut. 

I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are 1-4 their last five on the road, while the Cubs are 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven starts following a “quality start” in his last appearance. 

I like Lackey to bounce back here, he was 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA at Wrigley last season. This game has a lot of meaning for the home side, as the players will receive their World Series rings before it starts. 

I think the Cubs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Red Sox yesterday and they’d go on to smoke the Orioles 8-1.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar type beatdown here in what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors send the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill, he was shelled for five runs, including two homers over 4.1 innings to the Yanks in his first start this season. 

Jimenez was crushed by Boston last year, going 0-2 and allowing 11 runs over just 15.1 innings of work. In his career, he’s a miserable 2-6 with a 6.82 ERA against the Red Sox. 

Steven Wright gave up four runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings against the Tigers in his first start, lucky to receive a no-decision. Wright has to be feeling pretty confident in a bounce back here though as he domianted the Orioles last year, allowing only five runs over 16.1 innings of work. Note that in 22 career innings against Baltimore, he owns a highly respectable 2.45 ERA.

Jimenez is a train wreck and the fact that the Boston bats finally woke up in yesterday’s beatdown loss does not bode well for the beleagured veteran. All things considered, I think this is a great price, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Reds took Game 1 of this series 7-1 and then kept the momentum rolling with a 6-2 victory in Game 2 yesterday. Suffice it to say, i think it’s payback time tonight!

The visitors turn to Amir Garrett, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after beating the Cards on the road Friday, going six scoreless in the eventual 2-0 victory. Garrett was 25-29 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 496 innings of work in the minors, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie.

After sweeping the Braves, the Pirates have come out flat with a couple of rare back-to-back “duds.” Sending Ivan Nova to the hill is a good way to get back on track, he also won his first outing of the season, going six innings and allowing one run off six hits with no walks and four K’s. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 33 innings lifetime against the Reds.

He’s also a near-perfect 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.928 WHIP over 46.2 innings in seven starts at PNC Park. 

I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 15-39 in its last 54 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.5, while the Bucs are 10-3 in their last 13 against southpaws.

Despite how good Garrett looked in his first start, I’m giving the big nod to Nova in this matchup. The veteran has been almost un-hittable at home and certainly the Pirates will be desperate to salvage one game of this series. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Arizona is 6-2 to open the season and San Francsico is just 3-5. 

The Diamondbacks swept the Indians, but then came out flat in last night’s 4-1 series opening loss. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. The visitors send Robbie Ray to the hill, he received a no-decision against these very Giants in his first start of the year, allowing three runs off three hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work in the eventual 9-3 win. Last year Ray was just 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 32 starts, including only 3-9 with a 4.50 ERA in 17 on the road. 

The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija, who lost 9-3 to the Diamondbacks throwing opposite Ray. He did have nine K’s in that one. Note that he’s 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants overall.

I’ll point out though that the Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in Ray’s last 26 road starts, while the Giants are 36-17 in their last 53 home games against southpaws.

I love Samardzija to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and get the better of his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

This is the first game a short two-game series from Fenway Park. Baltimore is 4-1 so far, while Boston is 3-2. 

The visitors send Dylan Bundy to the hill and he looked pretty good in his first start against Toronto, giving up just one run over 7.1 innings of work. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one good start though. Bundy had mixed results this spring and he struggled mightily against the Red Sox last year, getting shelled for 15 runs off 31 hits over 20 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz, who makes his season debut tonight. Pomeranz had just a 4.59 ERA with the Red Sox last year, starting slow, but finishing decently. Pomeranz, like the rest of the Red Sox rotation was the beneficiary of the league’s most potent offense last season though.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-4 (-2.8 units) in its last five against left-handed starters, while Boston is 5-2 (+1.3 units) in its last seven against right-handed starters.

This is a big season for Pomeranz, who was a standout in San Diego and who has so far been a disappointment in Boston. I’m not convinced Bundy has turned any corners and think he’ll struggle today in this hostile environment. In my opinion, this line could/should easily be much higher. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). 

The Cards were hammered 8-0 at home to the Reds yesterday and dropped two of three in that series. 

The Nats can empathize, they lost the last two games of their three game series with the Phillies, falling 4-3 Sunday afternoon on the road.

St. Louis though looks horrible at the plate and I think that trend of anemic play gets carried over here. Note that the Cards have been held to one run or less in three of their first six games. 

Adam Wainwright gets the call in this one, so far he’s 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs off three hits and two walks with six K’s over five innings to the Cubs on Tuesday. Wainwright has enjoyed success against the Nats in his career, but I think he’ll have his hands full today against the focused home side.

Washington turns to Tanner Roark to “right the ship,” he’s 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP on the season, going six innings and allowing two runs off three hits and two walks and six K’s in a 6-4 win over Miami in his first start. Roark has struggled against the Cards in the past, but he’s been a beast at home no matter who he’s faced, going 22-13 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 274 innings pitched at Nationals Park.

This is the Cards first game on the road and I expect Roark and the home side to take advantage. The price is right in this one, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals won the World Series in 2015, but they’d return to .500 last season. The A’s took the season series 6-1 a year ago.

Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time.

The Royals come back home after taking two of three from Houston, but dropping the finale yesterday 5-4 in 15 innings. It was a great turnaround series after stumbling out of the gate, the Royals are now 2-4 overall.

KC has to be feeling pretty confident in facing A’s starter Jharel Cotton, who was shelled for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings to the Angels in his first start of the year. 

The youngster looked great in five starts last season, but clearly the sample size is still too small to get a proper read on this volatile hurler quite yet. 

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy, who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the Twins in his opener. It was a bit of a disappointment, as Kennedy had had a strong spring previous to that sub-par outing.

I’ll point out though that Oakland is just 5-11 in its last 16 against right-handed starters, while KC is interestingly 4-1 in Kennedy’s last five starts in the first game of a series.

Kennedy looked pretty pedestrian in his first trip to the mound, but he looked a lot better than his counterpart did in his first. I think KC turned a corner in the series against the Astros and I look for that momentum to get carried over into this one.

I think this line should in fact be a lot larger, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that the oddsmaker’s are not giving Martins Perez enough respect in this matchup, as I have no faith whatsoever in A’s starter Sean Manaea.

Manaea was 7-9 with a 3.86 ERA last year, including just 2-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 11 starts on the road. He’s also a poor 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA in four starts against Texas, including 0-1 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA in two outings at Rangers Ballpark.

Manaea gave up four runs off five hits and two walks over six innings against the Angels on Tuesday.

Perez was 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 33 starts last year, including 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts at home. Overall he’s 17-13 with a 3.75 ERA in 43 lifetime starts at Rangers Ballpark.

Perez gave up three runs off five hits and four walks across six innings in Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to the Indians, striking out four. He gave up all three runs over the first two innings, but he’d settle down nicely over his remaining four, not allowing a single hit. 

Oakland has averaged just 4.00 RPG to open the year, while Texas has average 6.00. 

I’m giving Perez the nod in this matchup on the mound and a big nod to the Rangers at the plate, who look poised for a productive afternoon against the inconsistent Manaea. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:10 EST).

Detroit won 4-1 on Saturday afternoon, but with its ace on the mound, I expect Boston to bounce back in the finale.

Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award last year and he’d open up the 2017 season with a 5-3 win over the Pirates, allowing three runs over 6.1 innings of work. Last year he was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, including 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts on the road. 

Daniel Norris was 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games last year. Norris was sidelined with “arm fatigue” to end spring training, but has been cleared to go. Norris is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three games against Boston and is 1-3 with a 4.14 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park.

I’ll point out that Boston is 15-6 in its last 21 against left-handed starters, while Detroit is interestingly just 3-9 in its last 12 home games against a team with a raod winning percentage of less than .400.

Norris has shown lots of promise, but the arm fatigue issue make Porcello the correct call here. Look for Boston to battle back and avenge yesterday’s setback with a convincing victory. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

I had a 10* play on Jesse Chavez and the Angels last night, but I think the Mariners can bounce back with their ace on the mound this evening.

Hernandez lost his first start of the season, despite only giving up just two runs against the Astros. Hernandez would go on to strike out six in the unfortunate setback.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco, who was shelled for three earned runs off seven hits over 5 2/3’s innings in his first start against Oakland this year. Two costly home runs proved to be the difference. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 road games against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Hernandez’s last eight starts following a team loss in its previous game, while LA is just 2-5 in Nolasco’s last seven starts versus the American League West.

“The King” looked great against a dangerous Astros lineup, while Nolasco struggled against the soft-hitting A’s in their respective openers. Sometimes recent performance is the best indicator we have in properly judging starting pitching and in this case, I definitely feel that Hernandez has a big/clear advantage. 

Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Pirates held on for a 5-4 series opening win yesterday and i think the home side will also find a way to pull it out this evening as well.

RA Dickey makes his first start for the Braves after spending four years in Toronto. Last year he won only ten games and posted a poor 4.46 ERA over 169.2 innings of work. Dickey looked shaky in the spring and draws a tough first venue to open 2017.

The home side counters with Chad Kuhl, who was 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA last year. Kuhl would allow seven earned runs over 14.2 innings this spring and posted a solid .185 opponent batting average. 

Pittsburgh has done well in this spot, going 5-1 in Kuhl’s last six home starts and 4-0 in its last four home games against right-handed starters.

The Braves are now just 2-7 in their last nine in Pittsburgh and all signs point to another blowout mismatch. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

Baltimore won a back-and-forth, 6-5 series opener yesterday, but I think New York can bounce back this afternoon with its ace on the mound.

Masahiro Tanaka had a career year last season and also a strong spring performance, but he came up short in his first start of 2017, getting shelled for seven runs off eight hits with two walks over 2.2 innings against the Rays. 

A date against the O’s is just what the doctor ordered for Tanaka to get untracked though, as he’s posted a tiny 2.39 ERA and 0.876 WHIP over five starts against them. In his lone start at Camden yards last year, Tanaka threw eight scoreless, allowing five hits and striking out seven.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman, who recorded a no-decision in his first outing of the year against the Jays, allowing two runs off five hits with four walks and four K’s over five innings of work. Gausman has enjoyed plenty of success against the Yanks in the past, going 6-3 with a 1.92 ERA lifetime, but I think he’s going to get outmatched on the mound this evening. 

The Orioles have been winning games, but not blowing out teams. The Yanks’ bats looked a lot better last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here as the Evil Empire looks to break its sluggish performance to open the season. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

The Mariners opened the 2017 season with three straight losses to the Astros. The M’s lost by one run, two runs and three runs respectively. 

LA comes in off a 5-1 loss in Oakland last night and will be looking to bounce back behind the big bat of Mike Trout, who already has 12 total bases through three games and hitting .385 to open early. 

Seattle’s pitching has looked decent, but the offense has been a disaster, currently hitting .145 collectively with an on base percentage under .250 and a slugging percentage of just .218. 

The visitors send Yovani Gallardo to the hill, he was 6-8 with a 5.42 ERA for the Orioles last season. Gallardo had a horrible spring and in his final tune-up he’d allow seven earned runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 12-2 Cactue League loss to the soft-hitting Padres.

The home side counters with Jesse Chavez, who was 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Chavez though comes in sharp right now, he’s been in a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation all spring and he would in the end earn the position by posting a 2.51 ERA with 12 K’s over 13.1 innings of work. 

I think Chavez will easily outduel his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value on the home side in this one. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

Oakland managed a 5-1 win over the Angels last night, splitting its season opening series with LA, 2-2. 

The Rangers are 0-3 to open the year though, as they fell 9-6 to the Tribe last night, after entering the ninth inning up 6-4. Texas has never made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. 

The visitors hand the ball to Raul Alcantara. Last year he made five starts for the A’s and would go 1-3 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over 22.1 innings of work, allowing a whopping nine homers in that span. 

The home side counters with AJ Griffin, who was 7-4 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.361 WHIP over 119 innings of work last year. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.222 WHIP lieftime at Globe Life Park.

Griffin faces his former team for the first time in his career, so clearly he’s going to be extra-amped up tonight. The Rangers as a whole will also be desperately trying to get off the schneid. Clearly Oakland will also be hungry for a win here, but I think Griffin has the advantage in this matchup. 

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Divisional Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 EST).

Toronto has been the top team in the AL East the last two season’s, but with Edwin Encarnacion leaving to the Tribe in the offseason, many have speculated that the team would take a step back this year. 

The Jays are still stacked, with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar and other sluggers, but so far the production just hasn’t been there after the first two games as Toronto comes town 0-2 after two straight setbacks in Baltimore to open the 2017 campaign.

Both were close, low-scoring affairs that we’re decided in the latter frames (in extra innings in the first game). 

The Rays took two of three from the Yankees to open the year, but I think they’ll stumble here against this highly focused Jays team.

The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman who enters the new season off an impressive WBC classic in which he led Team USA to its first ever win in the event. Stroman had an up-and-down 2016, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.

But that said, recent performance is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, Stroman comes in on top form and I’m expecting that momentum and confidence to be carried over here.

The home side counters with Blake Snell, who will get his first full year in the majors. Last season he got 19 starts and finished 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA. 

Will Snell dominate this year? Experts agree that a .500 season would be considered a huge success for the southpaw. 

Stroman is the correct call here.

I love this play and expect the underachieving Jays to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Washington came roaring back to win 6-4 yesterday and I think it’ll once again post a convincing victory in the finale of this three game set.

The Nats also came from behind to take Game 1, 4-2. 

Things won’t get any easier for the Fish today either with Tom Koehler on the mound, he was 9-13 with pedestrian 4.33 ERA in 33 starts last year, including a poor 5-6 with a 4.48 EA on the road. 

Koehler has been at his worst as well whenver he’s faced the Nationals, going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 starts, which includes a deplorable 1-5, 5.73 ERA record in eight outings at Nationals Park. 

Many feel the window of opportunity is now closing quickly for the Nationals, as their superstars aren’t get any younger and also other various contract issues which the team will have to deal with shortly.

The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez, who was 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 32 starts last year, including 7-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 16 starts at home. 

Gonzalez though has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 11 starts against them. Also note that he’s 33-20 with a 3.29 ERA in 73 career starts at Nationals Park.

I’ll point out that Miami is a horrible 20-43 in Koehler’s last 63 starts against a team with a winning record, while Washington is 14-6 in its last 20 home games against right-handed starters.

Washington is 5-0 in its last five at home with Gonzalez on the mound against Miami and all signs point to another victory here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GETAWAY DAY SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cincinnati Reds (12:35 EST).

The Phillies end their opening season series with the Reds on Thursday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Philadelphia sends veteran Clay Buchholz to the hill, last year he’d finish 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA. Buchholz has had an atrocious spring, most recently getting shelled for three runs off five hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the Pirates on Sunday, finishing with a 5.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in March. 

The home side counters with rookie Rookie Davis (yes you read that right). The 6 foot 5, 255 pound hurler made the opening day roster after finishing the warm-up period with a solid 4.02 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 17:3 K:BB ratio over 15.2 innings of work. 

This start means the World to Davis, so we definitely have nothing to worry about as far his effort and focus here. And for me, that’s going to be more than enough, as I have zero faith in Buchholz and expect him to struggle this season.

Great price on the home side in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I had a play on San Francisco last night, but this evening I’m going the other way as I think the Taijuan Walker is flying under the radar here after a strong spring.

Walker came over from Seattle in a trade for second baseman Jean Segura. 

Walker was 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA last year, but he was dominant through his spring warm up, with his fast-ball reaching almost 100 MPH. 

Matt Moore was 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA in his starts for San Francisco last year. Moore was consistently inconsistent on the road though, going just 4-7 with a poor 5.02 ERA away from friendly confines (was also just 4-9 with a 5.03 ERA in all “night” games).

One other player to keep your eyes on today is Arizona slugger Paul Goldschmidt, who had a homer yesterday and who needs one more hit for 848 for his career, which would move him past Steve Finley for No. 2 on the D-Backs hit list.

I think Walker is the correct call here, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

For 7/8th’s of his season last year, Cole Hamels looked great for Texas.

But the veteran southpaw would post a poor 6.75 ERA over his final six starts and was blasted by the Jays in his lone playoff outing.

Hamels though comes in off a great spring, giving up just one run over his last 11 Cactus League innings. Both he and the Rangers will be trying hard to avoid going 0-3 to open the season. 

The visitors counter with Danny Salazar, who also had a great first half in 2016, but was then hampered with right elbow discomfort down the stretch. Salazar looked decent in Spring as well, striking out 37 batters over 26 innings of work.

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range.

I’ll call these starters a “wash,” but think the desperate Rangers offer great value in this spot as they play hard and finally get off the schneid.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Domiantor is on the Kansas City Royals (1:10 EST).

The 0-1 KC Royals are in Minnesota to take on the 1-0 Twins on Wedneday afternoon and I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

And that’s because I think Ian Kennedy is being severely undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Kennedy was 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Kennedy, like the rest of the starting rotation, didn’t get a ton of support last season, so his record isn’t entirely indicative of how well the veteran performed. He was good and that was carried over this spring where he would give up zero earned runs over 17.1 innings spanning four Cactus League starts, striking out 19 while giving up nine hits and three walks. 

Note that Kennedy was particularly effective in all “day” games as well last season, going 5-2 with a very respectable 3.00 ERA.

The home side counters with Hector Santiago and he was 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 33 starts between the Angels and Twins last year. That included going 1-4 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA in six starts at Target Field. 

I’ll point out that KC is 4-1 in ist last five road games against a left-handed starter, while Minnesota is just 4-18 in its last 22 after scoring five runs or more in its previous game.

Kennedy is 4-1 in his career against Minnesota, while Santiago is just 2-3 in his career against the Royals. 

Look for KC to bounce back after the opening day loss. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST).

This is the second game of a four game series. San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the hill and Arizona counters with Patrick Corbin.

The Diamondbacks would pull away for a 6-5 win in Game 1, but if history is any precedence, then the Giants have to be liking their chances for a bounce back tonight as they won the season series with the D-Backs 13-6 last year. 

Cueto was 18-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last season. He was 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA against Arizona. He comes in off a strong spring in which he conceded just two runs in 12 innings of work. 

Corbin didn’t fare as well in 2016, going 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Corbin though had a decent spring, allowing seven earned runs over 18.1 innings of work. He’s also been “ok” against San Francisco throughout his career, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

San Francsico pitcher Madison Bumgarner hit two home runs in the first game and it still wasn’t enough, but this time around I feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound does absolutely justify in laying what I do feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price. 

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST).

The Mariners look to bounce back here after falling 3-0 in the opener as “ace” Felix Hernandez lost to Houston’s top guy Dallas Keuchel.

The M’s fell three games shy of a playoff spot last year, due mostly to a slow start at the beginning. The team will look to avoid the same fate this season and notch its first victory of the year with Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill. 

Iwakuma was 16-12 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.327 WHIP last year. Iwakma is 3-3 with a respectable 3.26 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in eight starts at Minute Maid Park. 

Houston counters with Lance McCullers, who was 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.543 WHIP over 81 innings last season. McCullers has looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. He’s still only 22 years old and has just 36 major league starts to his name. McCullers has had success against the Mariners in the past, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this revenge minded Seattle team which will be eager to atone for the “goose egg” it laid yesterday.

Like the Mariners, Iwakuma got off to a slow start last year. I like the veteran to come out strong in the opener and get the better of his young counterpart. Great dog play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

I played the Rays in Game 1 on Sunday and I feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side offer great value this evening as well.

Tampa took that contest 7-3. Sending volatile veteran CC Sabathia to the hill is likely not what the doctor ordered to get back into the winners circle though for New York as he was a poor 9-12 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA in 30 starts last season. 

Note that in 41 career starts against Tampa Bay, Sabathia has gone 14-14 with a 3.83 ERA. 

The home side counters with Odorizzi, who was 10-6 witha 3.69 ERA spanning 33 starts last year. Odorizzi was solid at home, going 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA. In 12 appearances against the Yanks, he’s gone 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA.

Both teams were poor offensively last year, ranking in the bottom third in production. New York ace Masahiro Tanaka had a great spring, but the Rays destroyed the hard-throwing japanese hurler. 

Suffice it to say, I think more of the same is in store for Sabathia tonight. Look for Tampa to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as I look for Odorizzi to outduel his aging counterpart.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (7:05 EST).

A couple of hard-hitting clubs face off against a couple of pitchers which have looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others. 

For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Yu Darvish and the home side.

Corey Kluber gets the call for the Indians, he started slowly last year, but finished strong with an 18-9, 3.14 ERA. 

Darvish didn’t come into the 2016 season until after the All Star break, but returned to post a 3.41 ERA and a 132:31 K:BB ratio spanning 17 games. He had a solid spring and looks poised to return to his pre-injury levels of play.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is in fact just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range. 

It’s going to take some time for the new faces for the Tribe, like Edwin Encarnacion, to start to mix well with their new team, I think the scales are indeed tipped in the Rangers favor in this one. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (3:05 EST).

Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays get ready to battle the Baltimore Orioles in in these team’s respective openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Estrada was 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He’s posted back-to-back sub-3.50 ERA’s for Toronto, but certainly he hasn’t been its best pitcher. Surely Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ all could have been better choices to open the season. Estrada actually posted a better road ERA than at home last year, but I think this is a tough opening matchup for the veteran.

The Orioles counter with Kevin Gausman, who was 9-12 with a 3.61 ERA last year. Gausman has worked hard on his slider and curveball in the offseason and many believe he’s primed for a break out performance in 2017. Note that he was particularly effective at home last year as well, going 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA (was also 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in all “day” games).

These teams finished with identical records last season and it was Toronto that ousted Baltimore in the AL Wild Card playoff game. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “pay back” time!

Finally note that the Orioles are 7-1 in their last eight home starts with Gausman on the hill. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NL SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:35 EST).

The defending champs are in St. Louis to open the season and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cubs.

The Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years last season, winning 8-7 in ten innings in Game 7, while the Cards finished second overall in the NL Central and would go on to miss the postseason. 

Chicago has to be liking it chances in this one, it won the season series against St. Louis 10-9 last year, including six victories out of nine played at Busch Stadium.

Jon Lester gets the nod for the visitors, he’d finish 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA over 202.2 innings in 2016. Lester is 3-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 58 K’s in 59.1 innings of work lifetime against the Cards. Lester was especially strong against St. Louis last season, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in three starts at Busch Stadium.

The Cards rotation is in a bit of a flux to open the year, so they’ll send Carlos Martinez to counter. Martinez finished 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 2016. Martinez has not fared well against the Cubs in the past, going just 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.433 WHIP over 30 innings spanning five starts against them last season.

I’ll point out that Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games and 14-3 in Lester’s last 17 starts in Game 1 of a series, while St. Louis is just 3-11 in its last 14 home games against left-handers.

Lester has dominated the Cardinals throughout his career and the Cubbies have the core of their defense intact which allowed a league low 556 runs last year. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the better team. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST).

The New York Yankees are in Tampa Bay on Monday afternoon in these division rivals’ respective series openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Each team sends its respective ace to the mound. 

The Yanks turn to Masahiro Tanaka who was 3-1 with a 0.38 ERA in 23.2 innings in spring training. He’s been awesome against the Rays throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.82 ERA. 

Last year New York averaged 4.20 RPG, which ranked it 22nd overall.

The Rays counters with Chris Archer, who also comes in off a sparkling spring, posting 17 K’s in 13.2 innings with a 1.98 ERA. Like his counterpart, he’s also had tremendous success against his opponent today, owner of a 2.63 ERA along with a 0.92 WHIP lifetime against the Yanks.

Tampa averaged 4.15 RPG last season, ranked 24th. 

Archer struggled to open the 2016 campaign and while he’d recover and finish with an overall decent ERA and WHIP, he was never really able to shake the slow start. A year later and the Rays’ ace looks fully prepared to open the season on a high note.

Tanaka is going to have another big year, but I think these starters a “wash.” I’ll give the slight nod to the hungry Rays with their home field advantage. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Fan Appreciation ROUT is on the Chicago Cubs (8:08 EST).

With a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series, I’m expecting the Cubs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

LA led this series 2-1, but has been blown out in back-to-back losses. The momentum has now clearly swung in favor of Chicago. 

The Dodgers turn to ace Clayton Kershaw, who is 2-0 with one save, a 3.72 ERA and a 1.086 WHIP over 19.1 innings of work in the playoffs. He’s 6-3 with a 1.93 ERA in nine career starts against Chicago.

Kyle Hendricks gets the call for the home side, he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over nine innings in the playoffs. He’s 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.829 WHIP over 25.1 lifetime innings against the Dodgers (also note that he’s 15-7 with a 2.27 ERA over 38 career starts at Wrigley).

I’ll point out that LA is just 5-12 in its last 17 playoff road games, while Chicago is 4-1 in Hendricks’ last five starts with five days of rest.

I think Hendricks can match Kershaw today and the difference will come at the plate. Chicago has its swagger back after back-to-back slug-fest victories and I look for that trend to carry over tonight. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* FAN APPRECIATION ROUT is on the Chicago Cubs (8:08 EST).

With their backs against the wall, I look for the Cubs to rebound in Game 4 and find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

I think veteran experience wins out over the youth movement.

The Cubs send 37 year old John Lackey to the hill, while the Dodgers counter with 20 year old Julio Urias, set to become the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game.

Urias faced Chicago on the road on June 2nd and would give up six runs off eight hits over five innings. On August 27th he struck out eight Cubs and gave up six hits over six innings in the victory. 

Lackey has made more postseason starts than any active pitcher today, going 8-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 24 playoff appearances. Lackey faced the Dodgers in Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS while with the Cardinals and would give up one run over seven innings in the 3-1 victory. He’s also 6-3 with a 1.75 ERA in 12 regular-season games against LA.

I’m giving Lackey the slight nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting Cubbies will bounce back in Game 3 and take full advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound.

The last time Cubs’ pitcher Jake Arrieta was at Dodger Stadium, he’d no hit the Dodgers. Arrieta is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the postseason and he has in fact held LA scoreless over his last two against it, going seven shutout innings on May 31st at Wrigley. 

Arrieta gave up two runs over six innings against the Giants in Game 3 of the NLDS. 

The home side counters with Rich Hill (0-1, 6.43 ERA) who is 0-2 in three career playoff starts. In his last outing he worked 2 2/3’s innings, giving up a run on three hits in his team’s eventual 4-3 win over Washington in Game 5 of the NLDS. 

In Game 2 of the NLDS though, Hill suffered the loss, giving up four runs off six hits over 4 1/3’s innings.

I’ll point out that Chicago is 5-1 (+3.9 units) after getting shutout, while LA is 8-13 (-10.4 units) this season when playing with a day off. 

I think we’re getting great value on Arrieta, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NLCS Game 2 Side Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

Chicago pulled away for a convincing 8-4 win in Game 1 of the NLCS and while runs will likely be at more of a premium tonight, I’m banking on the home side to deliver the goods once again.

This will be the fourth time in their seven postseason games that Clayton Kershaw has taken the mound for the Dodgers. Kershaw was last seen making seven pitches to help clinch Game 5 of the NLDS against Washington just three nights ago. 

Kyle Hendricks gets the call for the home side. Hendricks took a comeback line drive in the forearm in Game 2 of the NLDS, forcing him to leave early, but he’s been cleared to play and has shown no ill effects at all. Note that he led the NL with a 2.13 ERA: “Anytime something happens to your arm, your throwing arm, it's not ideal," Hendricks assessed earlier in the week. "Once X-rays were negative, I felt a lot better about it. I knew it was going to be a bad bruise type of thing, get through a couple days and it wouldn't be a problem."

Kershaw’s regular season was cut short due to injury, but he still finished 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA. The big southpaw would struggle against Washington though, allowing 15 hits and eight earned runs as the Nats hit .294 against him. Over his last seven playoff games, he’s 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA. 

Hendricks facd the Dodgers on June 2nd and gave up two runs over eight innings to go along with six K’s. 

I think Hendricks and the hard-hitting home side offer tremendous value in Game 2.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALCS Game 2 SIDE WINNER is on the Toronto Blue Jays (4:05 EST).

I had a play on the Jays yesterday and while that didn’t turn out the way I had hoped, I do think that the visitors will bounce back in Game 2.

The Tribe held on for a 2-0 win in Game 1. Francisco Lindor hit a two-run shot in the sixth inning. 

Toronto sends JA Happ to the hill, he was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 195 innings of work this year. Happ shut down the Rangers in the ALDS, giving up one run over five innings of work. The Jays had plenty of hits yesterday, it was just one of those nights where runners weren’t properly aligned to capitazlie. 

The Jays face Josh Tomlin, who earned a win in Game 3 of the ALDS. Tomlin though was roughed up by the Jays this year, giving up seven runs over 10.1 innings spanning two starts. 

But other than the two run homer from Lindor, the Indians looked weak at the plate as well. 

Ultimately I think Happ is the superior starter. Bauer only lasted 4.2 innings against Boston and I don’t think a similar effort is going to get the job done against this dangerous Toronto line-up. Happ has consistently proven himself in these spots and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALCS Game 1 Side Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:05 EST).

Both teams come in with plenty of momentum, but I think this one favors the visitors.

Toronto comes in off a sweep of the Rangers, while Cleveland comes in off a sweep of the Red Sox.

The Blue Jays’ bats came alive in the win over Texas, outscoring the Rangers 22-10. Slugger Josh Donaldson is batting .500 so far in the playoffs with five runs scored and three RBI’s. Edwin Encarnacion is 6 for 16 with three home runs and seven RBI’s. Jose Bautista has two dingers and seven RBI’s. Closer Roberto Osuna went 1-0 with a save. Overall the Blue Jays are very healthy, with only reliever Joaquin Benoit unlikely able to play.

Somehow Cleveland managed to rout the Red Sox, even without the services of top pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, both of who will also be unavailable for this series. 

The visitors send Marco Estrada to the hill, in Game 1 of the ALDS he’d give up just one earned run over 8.1 innings of work.

The home side counters with Corey Kluber, he was also outstanding in Game 1 of his ALDS, holding the Red Sox scoreless over seven innings of work. 

I think the value is simply too good to turn down on the undervauled visitors. Look for Toronto’s big bats to be the difference again tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (9:30 EST).

I like the Giants to stave off elimination for at least one more game with their ace on the mound tonight.

The Cubs took Game 1, 1-0 on Friday and followed that up with a 5-2 win on Saturday. 

It’s now time for Madison Bumgarner to shine, he’s 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 226.2 innings of work this year. Bumgarner was in vintage form in Wednesday’s NL Wild card game, going the distance and tossing a shutout by allowing four hits with two walks and six K’s in the 3-0 win over the Mets. 

Bumgarner has plenty of success against the Cubs as well, going 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 12 starts covering 80 innings against them. Also note tha the’s 48-30 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.072 WHIP lifetime at AT&T Park.

It certainly isn’t going to be an easy victory though in having to face Jake Arrieta, who finished 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. He struggled over his last six starts though, going 2-3 down the stretch, most recently getting rocked for seven runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on September 28th. Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA in San Francisco.

I think Bumgarner has the slight edge on the mound tonight and believe that the home side still has some fight left in it. I’m prediciting a decisive Game 3 victory, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALDS FAN APPRECIATION SPECIAL is on the Cleveland Indians (8:00 EST).

It’s Game 1 of this ALDS and I think the home side offers great value in this spot.

Cleveland plays with a little revenge here as well after Boston took four of six in the season series.

Rick Porcello gets the call for the visitors, he was 22-4 to go along with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this year. It was the veteran’s best regular season ever, but in my opinion he’s primed for a big letdown in the playoffs. Note that many of the Indians’ big bats have excelled against Porcello, including Jason Kipnis who is 10 of 31, Mike Napoli who is 6 for 18 and Carlos Santana who is 12 for 33 with three home runs.

The home side counters with Trevor Bauer, who finished a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP and an overall 12-8 record. Bauer has had mixed success against the Red Sox throughout his career, looking brilliant at times and pretty horrible in others. He’ll be looking to avoid any big mistakes against Boston slugger David Ortiz, who is 4 for 5 off him.

Porcello had a great regular season, but I don’t think he’s that much better than Bauer and certainly he’s at a disadvantage in throwing on the road to open this series. The Tribes’ offense finished just behind Boston’s, so that area is also a “wash” for me.

With all things being equal, the value falls onto the home dog in my professional opinion. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Senior Circuit Wild Card Game Winner is on the New York Mets (8:00 EST).

The winner of this wild card will advance to face the Cubs in the NLDS. 

New York took four of seven in the regular season series, including winning two of three at home.

The Giants backed their way into the postseason, struggling down the stretch, but managing to win their final four games to earn this chance. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 226.2 innings of work. Bumgarner though, like his team, struggled after the All Star break, going 5-5 with a pedestrian 3.80 ERA. 

The home side counters with ace Noah Syndergaard, who finished 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.149 WHIP and 218 K’s over 183.2 innings of work this season. The Mets clinched their spot on Saturday, so were able to rest Syndergaard for this important start. He enters this one off a gem in his regular season finale, allowing one run with no walks to go along with eight K’s against Miami on Tuesday. Syndergaard is just 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA spanning 19.2 innings against San Francisco lifetime, but note that he’s 13-8 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.976 WHIP over 181.1 innings all time at Citi Field.

Check out this amazing stat: New York is 6-1 in its last seven against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. 

I think the Mets are the correct call, this one definitely favors the home side. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* WILD CARD BLOWOUT is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:00 EST).

Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) faces off against Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37) in the American League Wildcard game. These teams played 19 times this year and Toronto came out on top 10-9. 

Stroman looks to bounce back after Baltimore roughed him up for our runs over seven innings last Thursday. Note though, despite going 0-5 in six September starts, he’d finish the month with a highly respectable 3.41 ERA. If Stroman falters, then the Jays will immediately go to southpaw Francisco Liriano and/or Marco Estrada. 

For the most part Tillman exceeded expectations this season and he excelled against the Blue Jays, going 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts, posting a 2.38 ERA in two outings at the Rogers Centre. But Tillman is poised for regression, Toronto’s big bats have dominated this matchup historically, as he’s 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 career matchups with the Jays and just 2-6 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts north of the border. And in four matchups against Toronto last year, Tillman was 0-4 with a deplorable 11.72 ERA. 

Note that Toronto was 6-4 against Baltimore at home and would also have a significant scoring advantage in the season series, 97-81. 

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I’m giving Stroman the slight nod in this matchup due to the home field advantage in this pressure packed scenario. And I’ll give the Jays the nod at the plate as well as they’ve already proven to be the more proficient line-up in these head-to-head matchups. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Both teams enter this series off victories, but I think this one favors Madison Bumgarner and the Giants.

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (12-5, 2.05 ERA) who has made just five starts since returning from injury and owns a 1.53 ERA in that span. His last start was skipped over because of a blister issue. 

Bumgarner (14-9, 2.71) comes in off a rare dud, allowing five runs off four hits in a fortunate no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. He owns a 1.02 WHIP this season to go along with 246 K’s in 219.1 innings of work. 

The big southpaw has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here though as he’s 8-4 with a highly respectable 2.04 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

The Dodgers are still in a race with Washington for home field advantage in the NLDS, but they’ve already locked down their position in the postseason. The Giants though are in a dog-fight with the Mets and the Cards for the final wild card position. 

LA has little to play for in this series, while it’s a do-or-die scenario for San Francisco. Considering the massive motivational factors working in favor of the home side in this one, I do indeed feel this is a fantastic price. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

A couple of veteran hurlers which have endured plenty of ups-and-downs this season will look to close with one last victory. However, I think Jose Quintana has the advantage over his counterpart Chris Archer today.

Archer (8-19, 4.02 ERA) gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 2-1 loss to Boston on Friday. To be fair, Archer looked pretty good, he was simply letdown by his offense. After a disastrous first half, Archer has really turned things around in the second, but if he’s had one glaring weakness it’s clearly been his play on the road as he’s a poor 5-9 with a 5.54 ERA away from friendly confines.

Quintana (13-11, 3.21) also comes in off a strong outing, giving up one run over six innings in an 8-1 victory over the Indians on Saturday. Quintana now has a chance to close the season with the best ERA of his career and a date at home is just what the doctor ordered as he’s 7-4 with a very respectable 2.76 ERA in Chicago this year.

I think Quintana will be razor focused today and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Rob Zastryzny (1-0, 1.46 ERA) who is making a “bullpen” start as the Cubs get their rotation properly aligned for the postseason. 

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (12-8, 4.37) who was letdown by his defense in his last start. Nova would ultimately allows six runs (three earned), off eight hits over four innings to the Nats on Saturday. Since getting dealt to the Pirates from New York though, the hard-throwing right-hander has allowed just three walks in 59.1 innings of work. 

The Pirates won’t be going to the postseason this year, but with one last chance to impress in front of the home town crowd, I think Nova outduels his counterpart and Pittsburgh does just enough to secure a victory this evening against this disinterested Cubs side. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

LA looks to hit the ground running as it enters the postseason: "It's about playing good baseball," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts assessed last night. "Not to get complacent and lose that edge. I have been on teams that continued to keep that momentum and I've been on teams that went the other way," Roberts finished.

LA fell 7-1 to the Padres in the opener, so will be eager to atone tonight. 

The home side sends Luis Perdomo (8-10, 5.59 ERA) to the hill, over his last 15 starts he’s gone 6-8 with a 3.90 ERA.

The visitors counter with Jose De Leon (2-0, 5.52), who comes off a poor outing against the Diamondbacks on September 18th, giving up six runs over just 3 2/3’s innings. De Leon picked up his first major league win against San Diego on September 4th though, striking out nine and walking no one. 

LA still has a shot at grabbing home field advantage against the Nationals, so I’m laying the price tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Braves last night and after going down 6-0, the home side managed to rally for the come from behind 7-6 win. I don’t think Atlanta will need to pull off something of that magnitude to secure the victory tonight though.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Adam Morgan (2-10, 5.57) who comes in off a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday, allowing three runs off five hits over five innings of work. Note that Morgan has been particularly inept on the road this year, going 2-4 with a ballooned 5.80 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (8-5, 4.41) who returns after a short stint on the DL. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. 

Philadelphia’s bullpen has posted a deplorable 10.13 ERA since mid September. I’m laying the price on the home side in this one.

Good luck…Larry 

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Orioles yesterday and they’d come up short. While Chris Tillman has struggled at times this year, I still think he has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart. I’m going to back the visitors tonight as they look to exact a little revenge. 

Toronto now has a two game lead over Baltimore and each has five games left to go in the regular season. Detroit is just one game back of the Orioles for the second wild-card spot, so that stakes couldn’t be higher for Baltimore today.

Liriano (8-13, 4.88 ERA) is a poor 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA in eight career starts against Baltimore.

Tillman (16-6, 3.84) has struggled with the Jays in the past, but he’s been decent this year, going 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in three starts. And note that Tillman has been at his best on the road this year as well, going 8-3 with a respectable 3.06 ERA.

As mentioned off the top, while far from perfect, I think Tillman is the correct call in this matchup as I have zero faith in Liriano. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors veteran Ricky Nolsaco and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Mengden (2-8, 5.74 ERA) who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to Houston on Wednesday. Mengden has shown flashes of brilliance, but has for the most part struggled in his rookie season, note the he owns a poor 1.54 WHIP and 32 walks versus 70 K’s over 69 innings of work. 

Nolasco (7-14, 4.60) brings a 16 2/3’s innings scoreless streak into this contest. In fact since the end of August Nolasco has been pretty much untouchable, giving up just 22 hits and only six walks over 35 innings of work while posting 27 K’s and a 1.80 ERA while holding the opposition to a .182 average over that span.

Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when trying to judge starting pitching and in my opinion, Nolasco has a huge advantage today. He’s looking to close the season strong and to lock up a job in 2017. I think he continues his recent form and all things considered, this is definitely a great price in this matchup. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry