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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-125||104 h 1 m||Show|
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET.
The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game.
The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale.
The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC).
The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said.
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-108||124 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET.
I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true.
No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title.
Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known.
Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion.
LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!).
Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.'
The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October. Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season
Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams||Top||22-30||Win||100||108 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.
LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch.
Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!)..
I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion.
The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action.
Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches).
Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons).
LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus.
|01-06-19||Chargers +3 v. Ravens||Top||23-17||Win||100||149 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST).
The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round.
The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest.
But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one.
Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup.
The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket.
Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West.
The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs.
In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards.
I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.
Play on the Chargers.
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State -6.5||Top||23-28||Loss||-112||485 h 56 m||Show|
My 10*LEGEND Play is on Ohio State at 5:00 ET.
Ohio St did not make the CFP's 'Final Four,' so Urban Meyer's last game as the Buckeyes' head coach will be the105th edition of the Rose Bowl from Pasadena, Ca. The year started with controversy for Meyer and the Ohio St program and Meyer announced that he would be stepping down as coach after the contest, primarily because of stress-related headaches stemming from a cyst on his brain. He leads the Buckeyes into this game with an 82-9 record which includes winning the 2014 national title during seven seasons at the school.
Washington opened the 2018 season ranked 6th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its first game, to then-No. 9 Auburn, 21-16.The Huskies would lose two more times before winning the Apple Cup game 28-15 at Washington St to clinch the Pac-12 North title on Nov 23rd. Washington then beat Utah 10-3 in the Pac-12 championship game on Dec 1, to clinch this Rose Bowl berth. The 10-3 Huskies are ranked 9th in both the AP poll and CFP standings. This marks the first time the Big Ten champion and Pac-12 champion have met in the Rose Bowl since the College Football Playoff began in 2014. Both schools are making their 15th Rose Bowl appearances but the schools have never previously met in Pasadena.
Senior QB Jake Browning is the school's all-time leader in career passing yardage (11,983) and TD passes (94) but he has battled consistency issues the last two seasons. He had 47 TD passes and just nine INTs as a sophomore but followed with a 19-5 ratio as a junior, before falling to a 16-10 ratio this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin is the program's all-time leader with 5,202 rushing yards and he's had no "drop-off issues," as his 1,147 rushing yards this season marked his fourth straight 1,000-yard campaign. The Washington offense averages a modest 26.6 PPG (86th) but its defense checks in allowing 15.5 PPG (6th) on 301.8 YPG (12th).
Ohio State wins games with a flashy offense behind sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. Haskins completed 70.2 percent of his passes in his first season as a starter, throwing for 4,580 yards with 47 TD passes and only eight INTs. Dobbins has 1,029 yards and Weber 858, as the Ohio St rushing game averages 175.9 YPG. Ohio St enters averaging 43.5 PPG (7th) on 548.9 YPG (2nd). However, the defense is a worry, as outside of Ohio State's 25-6 win at Michigan St, the Buckeyes D allowed 38.8 PPG in five of its last six games.
Bottom line is that there are strong fundamental, technical and psychological advantages for Ohio State. The Buckeyes own a very well-balanced offense and while Washington has an excellent D, no one has stopped Ohio St all season. Meanwhile, Ohio State's recent defensive woes should not be exposed by Washington's below-average offense, led by Browning, who has been in a two-year free-fall (hard to call it a slump,anymore). Technically, Washington was just 4-9 ATS this season and is only 1-7 SU in their last eight bowl games when facing Power-5 opponents. teams. SIX of those losses have come by seven points or more plus the Huskies are only 2-7 ATS their last nine playing outside the Pac-12.
Moving to Urban Meyer, his teams have covered 10 of 13 bowl games dating to his days coaching Florida and Utah. Ohio State is 36-14-1 ATS when not laying seven or more points the last 12 years (line is hovering around that number and I was able to lay 6.5). Finally, there's a likely emotional edge with Meyer stepping down and the team must still be a little ticked off at being left out of the college championship playoff. Lay it!!
|12-31-18||NC State v. Texas A&M -5||Top||13-52||Win||100||463 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year is on Texas A&M at 7:30 ET.
Monday night's Gator Bowl features the ACC's 9-3 NC State Wolfpack going up against the SEC's 8-4 Texas A&M Aggies. It will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. NC State's Dave Doeren is taking his Wolfpack team to its fifth straight bowl (3-1 SU & ATS), including impressive wins the last two, a 41-17 romp over Vandy in the 2016 Independence Bowl and a 52-31 shootout win over Arizona State in 2017 Sun Bowl. Jimbo Fisher will get a chance to win his first bowl game with Texas A&M, after going 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in bowls at FSU (includes guiding Florida State to the National Championship in 2013 34-31 over Auburn).
NC State QB Ryan Finley led the ACC in passing with 3,789 yards, more than 1,000 more than the next-closest QB (he has 24 TD passes and just nine INTs). WRs Kelvin Harmon (81 catches /1,186 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (89 catches / 1,028 yards) became the first pair of teammates in school history to each go over 1,000 yards in the same season. However, the NC State running game offers little support, averaging 143.8 YPG (98th). Defensively, the Wolfpack are strong, allowing 22.7 PPG (37th) on 380.2 YPG (55th).
Florida St QB Kellen Mond is not as prolific as Finely (2,967 yards) but owns a similar TD/INT ratio (23-8). However, Mond is supported by an excellent running game (203.8 YPG ranks 33rd), led by Trayveon Williams(1,524 yards / 6.0 YPC / 15 TDs). On the defensive side of the ball, Texas A&M is allowing 26.3 PPG (58th) but the Aggies actually allow less yards than NC State (354.7 YPG to rank 34th, including only 92.0 YPG on the ground, 2nd-best in the nation).
NC State opened 5-0 to reach No. 16 in the AP poll but a 41-7 loss on Oct 20 at Clemson, began a stretch of THREE losses in four games. The Wolfpack rebounded to win their final three games, but those victories came against 2-10 Louisville, 2-9 North Carolina and 3-9 East Carolina. Fisher remade the Aggies into a more physical team in his first year on the job and few will forget A&M's 74-72, seven-overtime triumph over LSU in their regular-season finale. Expect Fisher's 1st A&M team to end 2018 in a BIG way!
|12-30-18||Browns +6 v. Ravens||Top||24-26||Win||100||105 h 12 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST).
Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year.
Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points.
The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks.
The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns.
|12-30-18||Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos||Top||23-9||Win||100||104 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST).
No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong.
LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a 22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG.
The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses.
Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT.
Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.
|12-29-18||Arkansas State v. Nevada -1||Top||13-16||Win||100||32 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* Under the Radar Rout is on Nevada at 1:15 ET.
Arkansas State and Nevada were briefly conference-mates in the Big West Conference in the mid-90s and the two schools will meet for the first time since 1999 when they meet in the Arizona Bowl on Dec 29 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Az. This event is only in its fourth year but Nevada has fond memories after it won the inaugural Arizona Bowl over MWC rival Colorado State in 2015. The Wolf Pack return to the postseason for the first time since that game, after the program did a quick re-boot the past two seasons under head coach Jay Norvell. Arkansas State won five of its last six games (averaged 40.0 PPG in that span) with the lone loss coming against Louisiana 47-43, a defeat that cost the Red Wolves the West Division title and a spot in the Sun Belt championship game.
Arkansas State brings a four-game winning streak into this game. Senior QB Justice Hansen passed for 3,172 yards with 27 TDs, while being intercepted just SIX times (he was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year). The offense averages 464.8 YPG (20th) and 31.8 PPG (45th). Hansen ran for 399 yards, while adding six TDs. Defensively, Arkansas St allows 26.4 PPG (59th) on 376.8 YPG (48th).
Nevada QB Ty Gangi ranks 11th nationally in total offense (298.2 YPG) and completed 250-of-409 passes for 3,131 yards with 23 TDs and 11 INTs. He leads an offense averaging 32.3 PPG (40th) on 443.2 YPG (32nd). Nevada's defense owns similar numbers to Arkansas State's, allowing 28.1 PPG (71st) on 378.2 YPG (50th).
Red Wolves' QB Hansen does a few more things than Gangi, namely running. However, his TD pass total dropped from 37 to 27 this season. That said, Gangi has a more-accomplished group of WRs, led by McLane Mannix (17.5 YPC and 7 TDs) and Kaleb Fossum (68 catches). Arkansas State is in more familiar territory in the postseason, appearing in its eighth straight bowl but under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves have lost THREE of four. As for Nevada, it finished tied for second in the West Division of the MWC and had a four-game winning streak snapped in its regular-season finale by in-state rival UNLV, blowing a 23-0 first half lead in a 34-29 loss. Sure, the people in Reno are paying more attention these days to Nevada basketball (12-0 Wolf Pack are currently ranked No. 6) but on Saturday, the football team takes center stage and gets the "W."
|12-28-18||Iowa State v. Washington State -3.5||Top||26-28||Loss||-100||393 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play (1st of 2 this bowl season) is on Washington State at 9:00 ET.
The Iowa State and Washington State football programs have each been around for approximately 125 years, but they'll meet for the first time on Dec 28 in San Antonio at the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Cyclones opened 1-3 but they rallied behind freshman QB Brock Purdy. Purdy made his first career start Oct 13 in a game vs then-No. 6 West Va, with Iowa St winning, 30-14. He threw three TD passes against teh Mountaineers remained a steady force for the Cyclones in leading them to a 6-1 mark as a starter. Washington State was not just unranked in the preseason, the Cougars didn't even crack the "others receiving votes," list. However, graduate transfer QB Gardner Minshew turned in the most surprising performance of the season. He led the Cougars to a 10-1 record (No. 7 in the AP and No. 8 in the CFP rankings), before losing the Apple Cup 28-15 to Washington on Nov 23 (more on that later)..
One could make a strong case that this is the best Iowa State team in decades. The No. 25th-ranked Cyclones cracked the final regular season poll for the first time since 1976, and their third-place finish in the Big 12 is their best since 1978. Head coach Matt Campbell shared the Big 12 Coach of the Year award. RB David Montgomery has run for for 1092 yards and 12 TDs. Frosh QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland, who intends to transfer. Purdy completed 66% of his passes for 1,935 yards with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs while playing in only 9 games. The defense is top-notch, allowing 22.5 PPG (35th) on 351.0 YPG (37th).
Speaking of defense (not typically associated with a Mike Leach team), the Cougars' stop unit is just as good. WSU allows 23.1 PPG (38th) on 345.9 YPG (29th). That said, Washington St has gotten here on teh arm of graduate transfer, QB Gardner Minshew,. During the first 11 games, teams just couldn’t slow him down. The former East Carolina QB led the FBS with 4,477 passing yards, completed 70.6% and had a 36-9 TD-INT ratio. In two seasons at ECU he was good (3,487 YP, 24 TD & 11 INT. in 17 games), but NOT this good! WSU's average of 38.3 PPG ranks 15th in the nation.
While I acknowledged that this may be Iowa State's best team in decades, I do NOT believe this year's Ctyclone team is in the class of the Cougars. The snowy conditions played a big role in Washington State's loss to Washington last month, as Minshew didn't throw a TD pass for the first time this season and was held to 152 passing yards after passing for at least 319 in every other game. The team's 237 total yards against the Huskies was its worst offensive output since 2013.
Washington State was 10-1 and in the conversation for a potential berth in the College Football Playoff, before getting derailed by that snowstorm, getting shut down against rival Washington in the Apple Cup. However, Minshew won't have to deal with adverse weather conditions inside the Alamodome. What's more, the Cougars might have a pretty big chip on their shoulders after they were left out of a New Year's Six bowl, despite winning 10 games. Simply put, I believe Wash St is CLEARLY the better team, making this pointspread a 'cheap' lay!
|12-27-18||Miami-FL -3 v. Wisconsin||Top||3-35||Loss||-105||77 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami-Fl at 5:15 ET.
We don't often see two schools playing each other in back-to-back bowl seasons but that's the case Thursday at Yankee Stadium, as Miami-Fl and Wisconsin square off in this year's Pinstripe Bowl. Wisconsin won last year's Orange Bowl 34-24, as QB Alex Hornibrook passed for four TDs and the Badgers' outgoing senior class earned a record 45th win. The departure of those seniors saw Wisconsin, which opened the season No. 4 in the AP's preseason poll, take a huge backwards step in 2018. Wisconsin enters this bowl 7-5 (Badgers finsihed 13-1 last year and ranked 7th in the final AP poll). Miami opened No. 8 in the 2018 AP preseason but lost its first game, 33-17 to LSU. Five consecutive wins followed but an Oct 13 loss at UVa ('Canes were ranked 16th at the time), began a four-game slide. However, at 5-5, Miami was able to end the season with impressive back-to-back wins, 38-14 at Va Tech and 24-3 at home against then-No. 24 Pittsburgh.
Miami’s offense struggled on and off, as QB Malik Rosier fell out of favor and the team went back and forth between he and redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry. the duo combined for 2,096 yards with19 TDs and 10 INTs. Miami owns a veteran OL vet offensive line, leading the way fro a team which averages 197.3 YPG (42nd). Seven Miami defensive players, led by A-A DE Gerald Willis III and MLB Shaq Quarterman, were named to the all-ACC teams. Miami comes in allowing 18.2 PPG (15th) on just 268.1 YPG (2nd).
I have never been much of a fan of Hornibrook and he was hampered by injuries this season (concussion problems kept him out of three full games). Hornibrook’s interception percentage climbed, but he threw just 13 TD passes (11 INTs), compared with a 25-15 ratio last season. However, RB Jonathan Taylor has been terrific, becoming the fourth Badger to win the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back (he joined Ron Dayne in 1999, Montee Ball in 2012 and Melvin Gordon in 2014). He is almost certain to get the 11 rushing yards needed to hit the 2,000-yard barrier for the season as he is averaging a nation-best 165.8 yards rushing per game. The Badgers defense had its moments but was far from the same dominant unit of a year ago, surrendering 81 points total in the last two games while allowing Minnesota to rush for 201 yards in the season finale.
Yes, this is Wisconsin's 17th straight bowl appearance but this year's team is way off recent editions. I noted Wisconsin's fall-off on the defensive side of the ball earlier but will add here that this year's team allowed 24.2 PPG, its highest total in almost10 years. Miami comes into this game with some momentum, recording impressive wins at Virginia Tech and against Pittsburgh to garner this bowl bid. Conversely, Wisconsin, which is just 3-9 ATS on the season, enters having lost FOUR of its last five against bowl-bound teams. Miami owns the better athletes and gets its revenge from LY's Orange Bowl.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||125 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST).
Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest.
This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC.
These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense.
The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one.
The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG.
Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG.
Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG.
Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue.
Grab the points.
|12-22-18||Ravens +5 v. Chargers||Top||22-10||Win||100||101 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST).
Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards).
The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs.
LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory.
Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road.
The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points.
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +2||Top||32-42||Win||100||58 h 17 m||Show|
My 10* CFB Game of the Week is on Troy at 7:00 ET.
10-3 Buffalo and 9-3 Troy each went 7-1 during their respective conference regular seasons. However, only Buffalo (MAC) played in a conference title game, as Troy lost a tie-breaker with Appalachian St in the Sun Belt East. In retrospect, Buffalo would have preferred to "stay home," as the Bulls led NIU 29-10 in the final minute of the third quarter, only to go on to lose, 30-29. The teams meet in this year's Dollar General Bowl, for the first time-ever.
There is no doubt that Buffalo has skill players on the offensive side of the ball (34.8 PPG ranks 26th in the nation). QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for 2,857 yards with 27 TDs and just INTs. His two favorite targets are Anthony Johnson(52 catches / 11 TDs) and K.J. Osborn (49 / 6 TDs). Last year’s leading rusher, Emmanuel Reed, was pushed aside this season by a pair of freshmen, Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson, who combined for 1,751 rushing yards and 25 rush TDs this season. Buffalo’s offensive line, which was allowed just 12 sacks in 13 game. The "D" was good enough, allowing 24.7 PPG (49th) on 349.4 YPG (31st).
Troy averages a more modest 29.8 PPG but it concedes just 21.2 (23rd) on 345.6 YPG (28th). BJ Smith had 100 rushing yards in five out of his last eight games (set a school record with five consecutive 100-yard rushing games), finishing with 1,093 yards and 12 TDs. QB Sawyer Smith has been up and down since taking over for injured starter Kaleb Barker at mid-season. However, the Trojans have a stable of talented receivers that allowed both Barker and Smith to throw for over 1,000 yards, just the second time that has happened in school history.
Can anyone really trust Buffalo QB Jackson? The month of November was not kind tothe junior, as he broke the 200-yard barrier just once while the Bulls posted a 2-2 record. In comparison, over the first nine games, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year averaged 247 yards while throwing 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those numbers dropped to 158 yards per game with four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games in November, which culminated with the Bulls allowing a 29-10 lead to slip away in the MAC championship game defeat. Buffalo is playing in just its third bowl game, having lost 49-24 to SD State in 2013 and 38-20 to UConn in 2009. You really want to trust a team from the MAC? MAC schools are just 2-15 in bowls since Christmas Day 2015!
This game is being played in Mobile, roughly three hours from the Troy campus. The Trojans have won bowls the last two years and will take an overall 30-8 record the last three season into this contest. Note that Troy will also take a three-game bowl winning streak into this game, while averaging 42.0 PPG.
|12-20-18||Marshall v. South Florida +3||Top||38-20||Loss||-115||86 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* play is on USF at 8:00 ET.
Marshall and USF meet for the first time in Thursday's Gaspariila Bowl. 8-4 Marshall is a dominating 11-2 all-time in bowl games and enters having won its last six (HC Holliday is 5-0 SU & ATS). Meanwhile, USF's 7-5 record includes them opening the 2018 season 7-0 (garnering a ranking of 21 in the AP poll), then losing its last five regular season games.
The Herd may have won six straight bowls, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this hungry USF side.The Herd will have Tyler King and Brenden Knox in the backfield and they will present a formidable challenge for a Bulls' defense that allowed 39.6 PPG during its five-game slide. The Bulls rely on RB’s Jordan Cronkrite and Jonny Ford, who had nearly 1,800 combined yards rushing and 17 TDs between them. USF did not have No. 1 QB Blake Barnett in two of its last three games because of a shoulder injury and he may return. Chris Oladokun or Brett Kean would step in if Barnett can’t go.
Head coaches Doc Holliday (Marshall) and Charlie Strong (USF) coached alongside each other as Florida assistants and I believe Strong could REALLY use a win. Why can't he get that win, as he's playing at home. The Bulls are 21-6 SU at home the last four seasons.USF has a chance to erase its poor finish with a third straight bowl win and the school's SIXTH win in its last seven bowl appearances.
|12-17-18||Saints -6 v. Panthers||Top||12-9||Loss||-106||14 h 17 m||Show|
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST).
Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking.
The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage.
Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points.
Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall.
I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite.
With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow.
Lay the points.
|12-16-18||Eagles v. Rams -9||Top||30-23||Loss||-105||132 h 16 m||Show|
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST).
Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend.
Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend.
LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well.
Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less.
This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA.
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||Top||17-24||Loss||-110||125 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).
The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario.
Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG.
The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG.
Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog.
The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||Top||13-45||Loss||-103||267 h 35 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on MTSU 10* (9:00 EST).
MTSU is 8-5 and App State finished 10-2. Regardless of that, I think the Blue Raiders are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in the New Orleans Bowl.
Appalachian State beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt Title game to earn this spot. QB Zac Thomas had 75 yards passing, 59 yards rushing and two TDs.
MTSU fell to UAB in its conference championship game. QB Brent Stockstill had 362 yards passing with two TDs, while Zack Dobson posted 52 yards rushing.
I’ll point out though that MTSU is 4-1 ATS In is last five following an ATS loss, while App State is only 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two weeks or longer break between games.
I think Stockstill is the difference and i look for the talented pivot to keep his underdog team in this one late. Grab the points.
|12-15-18||Texans -6 v. Jets||Top||29-22||Win||100||121 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST).
The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion.
Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak.
But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick.
I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home.
I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.
|12-13-18||Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||29-28||Win||100||77 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST).
It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB.
In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can.
LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend.
The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season.
The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll.
I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks -3||Top||7-21||Win||100||12 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).
With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.
The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue.
Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own.
Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times.
I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records.
The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|12-09-18||Colts +5 v. Texans||Top||24-21||Win||100||116 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST).
This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup.
Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs.
The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass.
Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6.
I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories.
Grab the points.
|12-09-18||Panthers -1 v. Browns||Top||20-26||Loss||-120||116 h 34 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today.
It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG.
However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG.
Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT.
The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home.
I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina.
Play on the Panthers.
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||Top||33-30||Loss||-130||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one.
LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG.
Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches.
I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.
|12-02-18||Browns v. Texans -6||Top||13-29||Win||100||116 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST).
The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it.
The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG.
The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs.
I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak.
This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points.
|12-01-18||Georgia +13.5 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||97 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* SEC Championship Game Winner is on Georgia (4:00 EST).
This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff and I think that Georgia bettors will get a small amount of “revenge” tonight.
Alabama is 12-0 and it avenged its loss to the Tigers in the Iron Bowl last season with a 52-21 victory. Overall the Crimson Tide rolled up 500 yards of offense, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for five TDs.
Tagovailoa has an insane 36/2 TD/INT on the year. Defensively the Tide are strong too obviously, having not allowed an opponent to gain 300 total yards in its last six contests.
Georgia won’t be going down without a fight. The Bulldogs are 11-1 and they have to win this game, or this will be the end of their season (other than the upcoming bowl of course, but a playoff spot out of the question and no SEC shot.)
The Dogs though come in on top form as well, having won five straight, including a 45-21 destruction of Georgia Tech last weekend. QB Jake Fromm had three first half TD passes. Fromm has a 24/5 TD/INT.
Georgia has the defense to compete today, allowing just 17.2 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while the favorite is 0-5 in the last five meetings between these teams.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a “nail biter.” Grab the points.
|12-01-18||Stanford -2.5 v. California||Top||23-13||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF YEAR is on Stanford (3:00 EST).
Stanford enters off a momentum building 48-17 home win over Oregon State, while Cal’s also off a big victory, holding on for an upset 15-14 road victory over USC. Note that Stanford won this matchup at home last year 17-14.
This is a make-up game from a couple of weeks ago because of the wildfires.
Stanford’ QB KJ Costello had 342 yards with four TD’s and an INT in its latest win over the Beavers. The Cardinal are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re allowing 23.0.
Cal is averaging only 22.7 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 21.1 PPG. The Bears’ defense has looked sharp of late, but I think the unit gets tested in a big way here against Costello and company.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight after posting less than 275 total yards in its previous game, while Stanford is a solid 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 after posting more than 40 points in its previous game.
I have a hard time seeing the Bears’ offense keeping pace down the stretch. With an extra week off to prepare, I like Costello to find a way to get the job done.
Lay the points.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||107 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Championship WINNER is on Northern Illinois.
Buffalo went 10-2 in the regular season and 7-1 in MAC action, while NIU went 7-5 with a 6-2 record in MAC conference play.
If recent history is any precedence though, then NIU has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met last year, it was the Huskies that posted the 14-13 road win.
The Bulls averaged 35.2 PPG this year and they conceded 24.2. In the Bulls regular season finale they ran for 332 rushing yards in a 44-14 road win over Bowling Green. QB Tyree Jackson finished with a 25/11 TD/INT.
The NIU Huskies averaged only 19.9 PPG, while limiting opponents to 20.9 PPG. The offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who had 100 rushing yards in three out of his last four games.
I’ll point out as well that NIU is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field.
The Huskies took the foot off the gas a little early to end the regular season, but NIU has the defense to keep it in this one. I’m expecting an all out war.
Grab the points.
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||Top||17-34||Loss||-105||13 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight.
The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team.
The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams.
Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average.
The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread.
So where’s the advantage?
This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well.
Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here.
Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-125||126 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).
Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG.
Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG.
These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well.
Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points.
|11-24-18||Utah State +3 v. Boise State||Top||24-33||Loss||-114||112 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Utah State (10:15 EST).
To be the best, you have to beat the best. The 10-1 Utah State Aggies will look to dethrone the 9-2 Boise State Broncos.
The Aggies come in having won ten straight after a 29-24 win over Colorado State last weekend. QB Jordan Love has been exceptional so far this season with 25 TDs and four INTs.
But Utah State also has a pair of elite RBs in Gerold Bright and Darwin Thompson, who have combined for 1,670 yards rushing and 22 TDs.
The Aggies have been unstoppable offensively this year, averaging 500.1 yards of total offense, while posting 49.3 PPG (ranked No. 2 in the country!)
Boise State has won six straight, most recently a 45-14 victory over lowly New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien has been a standout with 3,270 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs. On the season the Broncos are averaging 465 yards and 37.4 points per game.
I’ll point out though that Utah State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. the conference, while Boise State is only 6-15 ATS in its last 21 home games.
Finally note that the road team is in fact 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series as well.
I like the Aggies’ amazing offense to be just too much for the Broncos to keep up with down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|11-23-18||Washington v. Washington State -3||Top||28-15||Loss||-106||86 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Washington State (8:30 EST).
The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship game next weekend and in my opinion. home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
WSU comes in with a ton of momentum with seven straight victories. The Huskies have been playing well as well, with back-to-back wins over Stanford and Oregon State.
Jake Browning and the Huskies have three losses this year, so they won’t be going to the Football Championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can win out, but I think they’ll fall flat against a surging WSU team which plays with triple revenge, having fallen to Browning three times already.
The Cougars now have the best offense in the Pac 12, averaging 40.5 PPG. No other team in the conference is putting up more than 35.5.
WSU most recently obliterated Arizona 69-28, with QB Gardner Minshew throwing for seven TD passes.
So far Minshew has 36 TDs and just seven INTs.
Note as well that Washington State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records, while Washington is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on WSU.
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-110||69 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).
The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday.
Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th.
The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here?
The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year.
Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak.
While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||Top||51-54||Push||0||14 h 60 m||Show|
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).
I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game.
KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.)
LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here.
Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday.
The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front.
KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.
Play on LA.
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||Top||7-48||Loss||-114||127 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles.
It’s do or die for the defending champs.
The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs.
Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined.
Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG.
New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here
Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG.
I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points.
Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary.
I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-18-18||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||Top||22-19||Loss||-120||143 h 5 m||Show|
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though.
It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today.
Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD.
The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team.
The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches.
I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points.
The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-17-18||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||126 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Cincinnati (8:00 EST).
This is a big game for both teams. The Bearcats are 9-1 and the UCF Knights are 9-0.
Cincinnati has won four of its last five on the road and QB Desmond Ridder has 1,897 passing yards and a sharp 15/5 TD/INT. Note that Ridder has two or more TD passes in six of his last eight games. The ground game is averaging whopping 235.8 YPG, led by Michael Warren II with 1,082 yard and 17 TDs.
Overall the Bearcats are allowing just 14.9 points and 279.8 YPG.
The Knights’ McKenzie Milton has 2,309 yards passing and a 21/5 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 271.4 YPG and the defense is conceding 21.8.
I think the Bearcats will have their chances today. They’re already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog. UFC though is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records.
UCF may ultimately win this one outright, but I look for Ridder and company to take this one down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-17-18||Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss +2.5||Top||20-21||Win||100||122 h 51 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (9*) Southern Miss (3:30 EST).
Southern Miss comes in off a a near upset of UAB and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
Louisiana Tech enters off a victory over lowly Rice, but I think the Bulldogs come up short here.
Bulldogs’ QB J’Mar Smith had 314 yards with one TD and two INTs last week. But Louisiana Tech is going to have its hands full with this Golden Eagles team which just pushed the mighty Blazers to OT.
QB Tate Whatley and the offense managed 23 points last week and note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +3.5 points range.
I think the Southern Miss defense is the difference maker, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Play on Southern Miss.
|11-16-18||Memphis -8 v. SMU||Top||28-18||Win||100||104 h 42 m||Show|
My 10* AAC West Showdown is on Memphis (9:00 EST).
Memphis is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while SMU is 5-5 and needing one more win to punch its ticket. The Tigers won’t be satisfied with simply making a bowl game though and they’ll love nothing more than to prolong the Mustangs chances for another week. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting a decisive Memphis win.
The Tigers have won two straight, but they’ll be cautious here as they’ve lost three of their last four away from friendly confines. QB Brady White so far has 2,512 passing yards and a sharp 22/3 TD/INT. Overall Memphis is allowing 30.5 PPG.
SMU has won two in a row and three of its last four at home, but with the step up in competition, I believe the Mustangs predictably stumble here. William Brown and Ben Hicks have combined for 23 TD passes and five INTs. The Mustangs are even worse defensively than Memphis though, allowing 36.8 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games and that the favorite is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.
The Tigers have scored more than 30 points five straight games and I look for that trend to carry over here.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3 v. North Texas||Top||38-41||Push||0||80 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Florida Atlantic (9:30 EST).
FAU enters off a 34-15 drubbing of WKU and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Mean Green though enter off a tough 34-31 loss against ODU last weekend and I believe it’ll stumble again here as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then FAU has to be liking its chances for another big victory tonight, because when these teams met last year it was FAU that posted the 69-31 home win.
FAU has in fact won two in a row. The Owls don’t really rely on QB Chris Robison, who has an admittedly poor 8/10 TD/INT. He was very sharp last week though by completing 17 of 21 for 231 yards. But the FAU offense revolves around RB Devin Singletary, who already has 1,169 rushing yards to go along with 20 TD’s.
Overall the Owls are averaging 31.1 PPG and they’re conceding 31.3.
North Texas is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.3, but last week it looked poor in the road loss to ODU. QB Mason Fine had 240 yards and two TDs and he still has an amazing 23/2 TD/INT on the year, but after last week’s collapse, I think the hungry Owls will have their opportunities today to pull off the outright upset.
Note that FAU is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while UNT is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year and already 0-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||58 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST).
This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end.
So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams.
Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores.
It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.)
Grab the points.
|11-14-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois||Top||13-7||Win||100||55 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I believe this is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.
NIU is rolling after back to back wins over Toledo and Akron, while Miami Ohio kept its bowl hopes alive with an impressive victory over Ohio last Wednesday.
The Redhawks have no time to dwell on that win though as they have to keep the foot on the gas if they want to reach the promised land. Special teams came up big for Miami Ohio last week, as it would block a punt in the end zone for a TD. The defense also posted a second half fourth quarter safety.
NIU is getting great play from RB Tre Harbison, who had 21 carries for 139 yards last week. QB Marcus Childers though hasn’t been spectacular and I think he’ll struggle against this aggressive and improving Miami Ohio defense.
Note as well that Miami Ohio is already 3-0 ATS tho shear off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is still only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favourite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Redhawks look vastly improved defensively last week and another effort like that could have them scoring the outright upset tonight. That said, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll grab the points.
|11-12-18||Giants +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||27-23||Win||100||36 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST)
These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night.
San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side.
Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.)
The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense.
Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +4.5||Top||51-14||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).
The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here.
New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs.
The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory.
Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs.
From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games.
Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive.
Grab the points.
|11-11-18||Jaguars v. Colts -2.5||Top||26-29||Win||100||127 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.
Both teams are 3-5.
Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league.
The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records.
The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|11-10-18||California +5 v. USC||Top||15-14||Win||100||130 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on California (10:30 EST).
Both teams need one more win to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a war to the end in this one.
Cal will be hungry here to get back on track after it fell 19-13 to WSU this past weekend. A bright spot in the setback was the play of QB Chase Garbers, who had 127 yards, one TD, one INT and another 67 yards on the ground. Cal is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.9.
USC looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after it broke its two game slide last time out with a 38-21 win over Oregon State. Aca-Cedric Ware had 205 rushing yards and three TDs.
Overall the Trojans are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re conceding 27.9.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 14 points or less in a conference loss in its last outing, while USC is only 2-6 ATS In its last eight after scoring 37 points or more in a conference contest in its previous outing.
Ultimately I think the Golden Bears’ elite defense keeps them in this one late and as stated off the top, I’m expecting a competitive battle until the final moments.
Grab as many points as you can, play on Cal.
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -3.5||Top||25-32||Win||100||122 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Utah (5:30 EST).
Both teams enter at 6-3, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done.
The Ducks broke their two-game slide with a 42-21 win over UCLA last time out, punching their sixth win of the year and eligibility. Oregon was actually out gained by UCLA 496-492, but the Ducks would benefit from recovering three turnovers.
Overall Oregon is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s led by QB Justin Herbert, who has 22 TDs and six INTs. The Ducks’ defensively allow 27.6 PPG.
The Utes average 30.3 PPG and they concede only 19.1. RB Zack Moss has 11 TD’s on the year while averaging over 121 YPG.
The Ducks bounced back after consecutive losses on the road, but I think they’ll struggle again here in this difficult venue. Utah lost starting QB Tyler Huntley last time out, but behind Moss and a 17th ranked defensive unit, I believe the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Lay the points.
|11-09-18||Fresno State v. Boise State +3||Top||17-24||Win||100||106 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boise State (10:15 EST).
Fresno State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 MWC play with a one-game lead over SDSU, who it hosts next weekend. Can anyone say “look-ahead/letdown” spot?! The Bulldogs come in off seven straight wins, most recently destroying UNLV 48-3 on the road last Saturday.
Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in MWC action and it’s still in the mix as well, sitting one game back of No. 18 Utah State for the Mountain Division lead. The Broncos come in on top form as well, winners of four straight, they’ll now look to pull off the slight upset and play spoiler.
The Bulldogs look strong on both sides of the ball, as they’ve given up just three TDs and 36 points in MWC play.
Boist State QB Brett Rypien had 214 yards and a TD in last week’s win over BYU. So far he has 24 TD passes this year. The Broncos are also among the best in the nation defensively, with 12 fumbles recovered thus far.
I’ll point out as well that Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Fresno State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after five or more SU victories.
This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers -3.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||80 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST).
Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday.
Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday.
Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week.
So where’s the advantage?!
Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-07-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||54 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Miami Ohio (7:00 EST).
Ohio has won four straight and I think it’s going to suffer a letdown here against the hungry RedHawks, who enter having lost two in a row.
The Bobcats most recently enter off a 52-14 win over Ball State and a 59-14 road victory over WMU as a three-point underdog. AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons combined for 188 yards rushing and three TDs in last week’s victory.
And while Miami Ohio has had to endure injuries this year, it’s not going down without a fight today as it still looks to become eligible. While the defense struggled in last week’s loss to the high-powered Bulls, the offense was firing on all cylinders once again and I expect the unit to bring the same intensity in this important/crucial game as well.
I’ll point out as well that the RedHawks are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 following a conference game (including 4-0 ATS this year) and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as an underdog, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range.
Grab the points and expect a “nail-biter.” Play on Miami Ohio.
|11-05-18||Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys||Top||28-14||Win||100||78 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST).
Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.”
Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well.
Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well.
Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range.
Grab the points.
|11-04-18||Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins||Top||6-13||Loss||-133||143 h 29 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST).
These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler.
Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air.
Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall.
I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records.
Grab the points.
|11-03-18||California +10.5 v. Washington State||Top||13-19||Win||100||130 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on California (10:45 EST).
After four straight wins, I think that WSU comes in a big complacent vs. its lowly opponent, enough of a letdown anyways to let the hungry visitors sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
WSU had a one-half game lead over Washington and it’ll be difficult not to get caught “looking ahead” to The Apple Cup.
Cal’s on the edge of eligibility as well and it’ll be eager to pull off the upset. The Golden Bears haven’t been to a bowl game since losing to Air Force in the 2015 Armed Forces Bowl.
But the Golden Bears are poised for a return after last week’s 12-10 upset of then No. 12 Washington last Saturday. QB Chase Garbers returned two games ago and since then he’s gone 33 of 49 for 387 yards, three TDs and zero INTs.
It won’t be easy obviously facing Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense, but after a slim 41-38 win at Stanford last Saturday, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot
Not surprisingly, Cougars’ QB Gardner Minshew leads the nation in passing yards and is fifth in TD passes.
I’ll point out though that Washington State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-02-18||Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia||Top||23-13||Win||100||103 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Pittsburgh (7:30 EST).
Pittsburgh comes in off a shootout victory over Duke and I look for the Panthers to carry that offensive momentum over here against Virginia, which comes in contented off three straight victories.
The Panthers most recently pulled away for a 54-45 win over the Blue Devils. V’Lique Carter had 137 yards rushing and two TD’s, while Qadree Ollison had 149 yards and a TD as well.
The Cavs enter off the 31-21 victory over UNC, but this is s spot in which Virginia has done terribly in for bettors over the years, going just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after playing a conference game. Note that the Cavs are also just 3-4 ATS in their last seven off a win against a conference rival.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has excelled in this spot by going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think it goes right down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||3-34||Loss||-121||81 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST).
The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend.
Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards.
The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs.
Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Ohio v. Western Michigan -2||Top||59-14||Loss||-104||80 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
WMU's 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo ended the Broncos' six-game winning streak and dropped them one game back of Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC's West title. However, WMU still controls its own destiny, Win here at home vs Ohio plus Nov 13 at Ball St (currently a 3-6 team) and the Broncos will host Northern Illinois on Nov 20 with the winner qualifying for the MAC championship game.
First things first, let's talk Ohio U. The Bobacats are 5-3, including 3-1 in the MAC East, one game back of 4-0 Buffalo. However, the Bobcats have back-to-back road games here at WMU and then against the school's long-time rival, Miami-Ohio. After that, it's a home date with Buffalo, which is arguably the MAC's best team (7-1 overall). Note that Ohio is just 1-3 away from home, allowing an average of 33.3 PPG in its three losses, with its lone win coming 27-26 at Kent (go-ahead score came with about 1 1/2 minutes left), which is just 1-7 overall (0-4 in MAC play).
I’ll point out that Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while WMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after posting more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.
Bottom line is that oddsmaker' overreacted to WMU's shocking 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo and bettors have piled on. Almost ALL the money is on Ohio but I expect a comfortable Western Michigan win.
|10-28-18||Seahawks v. Lions -2.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-115||143 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG.
Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT.
Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory.
Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.)
I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum.
Lay the points.
|10-27-18||Texas v. Oklahoma State +3||Top||35-38||Win||100||127 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Oklahoma State (8:00 EST).
While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.
Texas held on for a 23-17 road win over Baylor last time out and I think the Longhorns finally have a letdown here in this difficult venue and after five straight victories. QB Sam Ehlinger so far has 1,534 yards passing with an 11/2 TD/INT, while completing 65.7 percent of his passes, while RB Keontay Ingram so far has 403 yards rushing. Overall Texas is averaging 30.7 PPG.
Oklahoma State is the “hungrier” team here no doubt after losing three of its last four, most recently a 31-12 setback to K-State.
Cowboys’ QB Taylor Cornelius though is a difference maker, as he already has 2,009 passing yards and a decent 16/8 TD/INT. Overall OKS is averaging 493 total yards of offense per game, along with 39.4 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while Oklahoma State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog.
As stated off the top,while I do in fact believe the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Play on Oklahoma State.
|10-27-18||Georgia -7 v. Florida||Top||36-17||Win||100||122 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Georgia (3:30 EST).
A couple of 6-1 teams collide from EverBank Field in Jacksonville Florida on Saturday afternoon.
The Gators have won five in a row and they moved to 4-1 in conference play after a 37-27 victory over Vanderbilt. QB Feleipe Franks has 1,406 yards with 15 TDs and five INTs, while only completing 56.6 percent of his passes. Overall Florida is averaging 34.4 PPG.
The Bulldogs come in off their first loss of the year, a 36-16 setback to LSU. Georgia though has had its bye week to filter and process the loss and I think the extra time off will prove to be very beneficial for the Bulldogs.
With their first loss out of the way and with a full week to process and refocus, it could in fact be the best thing that could have happened for Georgia this season. So far QB Jake Fromm has 1,409 yards passing with a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the Bulldogs are averaging 39 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Florida is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field, while Georgia is 5-3 ATS in it slast eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on a neutral field.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Georgia.
|10-26-18||Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College||Top||14-27||Loss||-104||102 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* ACC Game Of The Month is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST).
Miami Florida comes in off a stunning loss to Virginia and suffice it to say, I think the Hurricanes take out their frustrations on the Eagles.
Last week Miami fell 16-13 on the road and it’ll now try to steamroll a BC side which comes in off a satisfying 38-20 victory over Louisville last Saturday.
The Hurricanes are making a permanent move back to QB Malik Rosier, after freshman K’Kosi Perry completely underwhelmed last week. Perry was just 3 of 6 for 20 yards with two INT’s. Rosier would come in in the second half and throw for 170 yards and an INT.
Miami’s offense has plenty of issues, but the senior Rosier should bring back some steady calm to a unit which desperately needs it. The Hurricanes defense though remains one of the best in the country, among the leaders in almost every defensive category.
BC’s offense revolves around its running attack, which averages 226.9 YPG. Last week RB David Bailey and Ben Glines combined to run for 219 yards and two TDs. But BC struggles are on the offensive side of the ball, while the defense remains a strength of the team.
I’ll point out though that Miami is 21-15 ATS in its last 26 after giving up less than 20 points in its previous game, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series overall as well.
I think the change of QB for Miami will in fact prove to be a good move andI look for the Hurricanes superior defense to then deliver the knock out blow.
Lay the points, play on Miami.
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans -7||Top||23-42||Win||100||79 h 28 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST).
These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week.
The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville.
Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times.
The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week.
Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5||Top||51-24||Loss||-110||79 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Attack is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
No upsets here in my opinion, as I look for the first place WMU Broncos to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night.
Toledo comes to town off a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while Western Michigan enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action.
Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Broncos after the Rockets scored the 37-10 home win in the series last season.
Toledo is averaging 39.3 PPG and it gave up 326 passing yards to Buffalo last weekend. QB Eli Peters has a 6/2 TD/INT. Note that the defense is allowing 34.3 PPG.
WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s conceding 28.4. QB Jon Wassink already has 1,980 passing yards with a strong 16/6 TD/INT.
I’ll point out as well that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win over more than 20 points, while Toledo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.
In conclusion, this year's Toledo team hardly looks bowl-bound. The Rockets have been to 11 bowls since 2001 and to SEVEN in the previous eight seasons. However, last year's 11-3 record seems as 'far away,' as Toledo lost its second straight and dropped to 3-4 (1-2 MAC) on the season. Toledo was outgained by Buffalo 463-to-295 in yards, while committing four turnovers in the 31-17 loss. Toledo has struggled on the road this season going 0-2, while allowing 77 points, and will 'limp' into this game 0-4 ATS in its last four overall (also checks in at 0-3 ATS to begin MAC play).
Meanwhile, Tim Lester's second season at Toledo is going well. He had a tough act to follow (P.J. Fleck led WMU to a 13-1 season and a New Years' Six bowl game in 2016) but 2017's 6-6 record is a thing of the past. The Broncos opened 2018 with back-to-back losses (to Syracuse and at Michigan) but enter this contest on a six-game winning streak (4-0 start in MAC play) in which the team has averaged 41.0 PPG. WMU's balanced offense (249.4 YPG passing and 220.2 YPG rushing) will allow the Broncos to win this game with "room to spare!'
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -4||Top||20-23||Loss||-102||37 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST).
It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season.
The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr.
The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards.
Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense.
Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes.
Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion.
I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons.
|10-21-18||Cowboys +2 v. Redskins||Top||17-20||Loss||-115||145 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).
Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement.
Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one.
Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well.
The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers.
Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2.
The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries.
I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory.
Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game.
The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings.
Grab the points.
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3||Top||23-26||Push||0||142 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).
Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts.
Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team.
For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD.
Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack.
The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here.
Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road.
I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii -3.5||Top||40-22||Loss||-105||130 h 1 m||Show|
My 10* ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT on Hawaii (11:55 EST).
Nevada is 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Mountain West play. It most recently lost its second straight, most recently a 31-27 setback to Boise State.
The Wolfpack were out gained by a whopping 506-386 margin. QB Ty Gangi was just 24 of 42 for 204 yards, two TDs and an INT.
Overall Nevada is averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 33.6.
Hawaii on the other hand is 6-2, including 3-0 in Conference action. The Warriors come in off a 49-23 non-conference loss to BYU this past Saturday (I had the Cougars in that one!) WR John Ursua had 89 yards and a TD. QB Cole McDonald has 26 TDs and three INTs on the year.
Overall Hawaii is averaging 36.5 PPG and it’s conceding 32.
I think Nevada is overmatched on both sides of the ball today. The Wolfpack also come in with zero momentum and they’ve been struggling away from friendly confines as well.
The Warriors can smell the blood in the water in my opinion (note as well that Hawaii is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 48 points or more in its previous contest.)
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||20-13||Win||100||80 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF MONTH is on Stanford (9:00 EST).
Stanford comes into this one hungry and rested. The Cardinal are off their bye and they’re looking to halt a two-game slide, most recently falling to Notre Dame and Utah.
Arizona State is just 1-3 in its last four, most recently falling to Colorado.
Stanford has to be feeling more confident this week though because RB Bryce Love, who has missed the last two games with a small injury, is back and ready to go. Love already has 327 yards through four games.
With Love in the line-up, Stanford is an entirely different team and I have a hard time seeing ASU’s porous defensive front slowing him down at all.
ASU also comes in off its bye, but instead of rest leading to success, I think the opposite will be true for the Sun Devils. QB Manny Wilkins was injured in the loss to Colorado, but he’s also been given the green light today.
I’ll point out though that Arizona State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye-week and only 2-4 ATS in its last six when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Stanford is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 6-3 ATS in its last nine when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3.
The Cardinal have upcoming games against Washington and Washington State, so they can ill afford another loss.
Stanford’s recent slide is directly attributable to Love’s absence, but now that he’s back though I’m expecting a complete “180.”
Lay the points.
|10-18-18||Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||45-10||Win||100||79 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST)
Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams.
Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota.
Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s.
The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s.
Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home.
I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||40-43||Push||0||158 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.
KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue.
Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD.
After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well.
A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive.
Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year.
And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots.
|10-14-18||Colts +2.5 v. Jets||Top||34-42||Loss||-102||142 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others.
Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21.
Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6.
Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less.
I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||128 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on USC (10:30 EST).
Colorado enters off a 28-21 home win over Arizona State, while USC got the better of Arizona 24-20 on the road as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Trojans have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met last year USC would post the convincing 38-24 road victory.
I think Colorado comes in complacent after it’s 5-0 start. Overall the Buffs are averaging 37.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 18.4. QB Steven Montez had 328 passing with two TDs in last week’s win over Colorado State.
USC is averaging 24.6 PPG and its conceding 26.2. QB JT Daniels had 197 passing yards last week, while RB Aca’Cedric Ware had 173 rushing yards.
After two poor performances on the defensive side of the ball to Texas and Washington State, the Trojans limited Arizona to just 98 rushing yards last week.
I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records, while USC is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival.
I like USC’s improved defensive play to carry over here and I’m finally expecting the Buffs to stumble. Lay the points.
|10-11-18||Eagles -3 v. Giants||Top||34-13||Win||100||77 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).
While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week.
Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards.
New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s.
Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home.
The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York.
Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests.
I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.
|10-07-18||Rams -7 v. Seahawks||Top||33-31||Loss||-114||148 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).
To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right?
Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point.
However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that.
Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s.
Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8.
Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s.
Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3.
The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams.
|10-07-18||Giants +7 v. Panthers||Top||31-33||Win||100||145 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs.
Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week.
The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground.
Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG.
Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range.
I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York.
|10-06-18||Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5||Top||14-20||Win||100||127 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST).
Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina.
Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17.
Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue.
Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory.
I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here.
I’m laying the points.
|10-06-18||Boston College +4 v. NC State||Top||23-28||Loss||-102||120 h 23 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST).
Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments.
NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017.
BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s.
NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores.
I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival.
I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points.
|10-05-18||Utah State +2.5 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||107 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST).
Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force.
BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington.
If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup.
Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already.
Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8.
BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT.
RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU.
The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well.
I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||35 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST).
The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage.
I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion.
Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight.
Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year.
Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter.
Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24.
I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).
It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point.
Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.)
I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though.
The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3.
Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.)
Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats.
|09-30-18||Lions +3 v. Cowboys||Top||24-26||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here.
Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990.
Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR.
The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7.
Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT.
Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record.
Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points.
|09-29-18||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-17||Win||100||125 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend.
Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27).
If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road.
Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC.
The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron.
TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road.
I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit.
I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.”
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||79 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST).
Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6.
Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2.
Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game.
Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here.
The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes.
There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.)
Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult.
LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season.
The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times.
Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Grab the points, play on the Vikes.
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs||Top||30-27||Win||100||36 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going.
Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here.
And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3.
The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2.
Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs.
Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance.
The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less.
Play on the Steelers.
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions +7||Top||10-26||Win||100||151 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST).
An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week.
And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension.
New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback.
So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet.
Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers.
Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season.
I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record.
Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously.
As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +2.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-110||126 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Oregon (8:00 EST).
Stanford comes to the Pacific Northwest off a 30-10 home win over UC Davis, while Oregon comes in off a tougher than expected 35-22 home victory over San Jose State.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Ducks after they were smoked 49-7 by the Cardinal last year.
Stanford QB KJ Costello had two TD’s but also two INT’s last week. So far he has 729 passing yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal have looked very strong defensively so far, allowing an average of just 7.7 points over the first three games.
However, there’s no question that Stanford faces its stiffest test yet.
Oregon is also 3-0. So far the Ducks have scored an average of 52 PPG, good for eighth in the country. The defense has been the weak point, but it’s still been pretty good, allowing an average of 20 PPG over the first three.
Stanford features an elite defense, but I think that unit will be on its heels all afternoon long. The Ducks come in with a chip on their shoulder and I look for their combination of high-flying offensive firepower and above average defensive play to be just too much for satisfied Stanford to keep up to down the stretch.
Play on Oregon.
|09-22-18||Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue||Top||13-30||Loss||-110||118 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (12:00 EST).
I had a big play on Purdue last week (my 35-Club Play signature release), but this weekend I’m going against the winless Boilermakers.
Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. I have a hard time seeing the Boilermakers keeping up to the Eagles though, who have averaged 52.7 PPG in the early going. The BC defense has been sharp as well, holding the opposition to just 340.7 yards per game average.
Boston College’ QB Anthony Brown has 626 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s so far. WR Kobay White has 163 yards receiving and RB AJ Dillon has 432 rushing yards and five TD’s. Dillon had 185 yards on 33 carries against Wake Forest.
Purdue is scoring an average of 27.7 PPG. QB David Blough was 39 of 55 for 572 yards, three TD’s and an INT in last week’s tight setback.
Note though that the Boilermakers are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games against teams with a winning road record, while BC is 7-1-1 ATS in its last eight nine after a SU victory.
I love BC to kick Purdue while it’s down. Lay the points.
|09-21-18||Washington State +3.5 v. USC||Top||36-39||Win||100||106 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST).
Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday.
USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas.
The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win.
So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s.
The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s.
I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars.
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns -3||Top||17-21||Win||100||80 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST).
New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami.
Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2.
Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue.
The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s.
Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well.
I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest.
I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points.
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||79 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (7:30 EST).
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the table is set for a a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in primed for a letdown after its first win of the season, a massive 35-14 upset on the road over Maryland.
Note that this is a revenge game for Tulsa after the Owls took the latest match-up 43-22 on November 25th, 2017.
Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and conceding 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards with four TD’s and three INT’s on the year.
Temple is averaging 27 PPG and it’s conceding 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s so far, while Anthony Russo has 252 yards and a TD on the season.
I’ll point out though that Tulsa is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while Temple is already 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite.
I think Temple has a classic letdown here after its big upset on the road. Well, enough of one anyways to let the Golden Hurricane to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the sizeable spread that they’ve been afforded.
Grab the points.
|09-15-18||Missouri v. Purdue +8||Top||40-37||Win||100||122 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on Purdue (7:30 EST).
Missouri comes in a tiny bit complacent after two straight victories, most recently throttling Wyoming 40-13 at home last Saturday.
Purdue though comes in desperate as it’s dropped two in a row, including a shocking 20-19 setback at home to Eastern Michigan as a 16 point favorite last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances tonight as when these teams met last year, it was Purdue that came away with the 35-3 road victory on September 16th, 2017.
Missouri is so far averaging 396 YPG, averaging 45.5 PPG. QB Drew Lock has 687 yards with eight TD’s so far this season. Overall the Tigers are allowing just 13.5 PPG early, but clearly the unit faces a stiff test today against the hungry and determined Boilermakers.
So far Purdue is averaging 23 PPG, as David Blough has 122 yards passing and 36 rushing, while co-QB Elijah Sindelz has 283 yards, two TD’s and three picks. The defense has been a bright spot though, allowing only 25.5 PPG.
This is a great situational play in my opinion. I think Missouri comes in complacent here in this non-conference matchup as it gets caught looking ahead to its conference schedule.
Purdue does not have that luxury at all though obviously and I think the intensity in which the Boilermakers play with today will turn out to be the difference. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in a much closer than expected battle.
|09-13-18||Old Dominion v. Charlotte +2||Top||25-28||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Charlotte (6:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end.
ODU is so far winless on the year with setback to Liberty and FIU, while Charlotte opened with a victory over Fordham, before then dropping its second game against a surging Appalachian State team.
The Monarchs have looked horrible. Last week QB Steven Williams and Blake LaRussa combined to go 13 of 19 for 237 yards and two TD’s in the first half, but then went just 6 of 18 for 66 yards the rest of the way.
Charlotte also uses two QB’s. This week we can expect to see a lot of Hasaan Klugh, who was mainly featured as a runner last weekend.
The 49ers got some great individual defensive play in the blowout setback to the Mountaineers, as safety Ben Deluca had 11 total tackles.
I’ll point out as well that Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, while ODU is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests and a dismal 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss.
The Monarchs are banged up and their offense is stuck in neutral. Meanwhile the 49ers have looked a lot better through all three phases. This one has ATS blowout written all over it. Play on Charlotte.
|09-13-18||Boston College -5.5 v. Wake Forest||Top||41-34||Win||100||76 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boston College (7:30 EST).
An important early ACC clash favors the visitors on Thursday night in my opinion.
BC enters off a 62-14 smoke-job over Holy Cross last weekend, while Wake demolished Towson 51-20. Note that this is a revenge game for the Eagles after Wake recorded a 34-10 victory at Boston College last year.
Eagles’ QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter last week and he threw four TD’s. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. So far BC has looked fantastic on both sides of the ball over its first two games.
Wake Forest has won its first two games as well. QB Sam Hartman had 242 passing yards and two TD’s last week, while the defense held Towson to just 65 rushing yards.
However note that the Demon Deacons have struggled against the pass early, as evidenced by the 345 passing yards they gave up last week.
I’ll pint out as well that Wake Forest is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards, while BC is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven conference tilts.
The Eagles have the superior pass defense, a unit which finished 22nd in the country last year. I think that’ll be the difference tonight. Lay the points, play on Boston College.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +3||Top||33-13||Loss||-100||1046 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST).
Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas.
|09-09-18||Bears +9 v. Packers||Top||23-24||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).
This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes.
Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year.
QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel.
On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after.
Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games.
Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late.
No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points.
|09-08-18||Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -1||Top||21-0||Loss||-105||145 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
Cincinnati is 1-0 and Miami Ohio is 0-1. I look for the home side to lay everything on the line today though as it looks to get off the schneid.
The Bearcats come in off a highly satisfying 26-17 road win over UCLA as two TD underdog. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? The Bearcats had 305 yards of offense and they also conceded about 305 yards on defense. Desmon Ridder was just 13 of 24 for 100 yards.
The Redhawks were small dogs when their game kicked off against visiting Marshall in Week 1 and Miami Ohio would wind up falling 35-28. The Redhawks though had 445 yards of offense and I expect the unit to build off that performance.
QB Gus Ragland was 25 of 46 for 357 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Jack Sorenson was key in the passing game with three catches for 106 yards and a major score.
It’s difficult to win on the road and even more difficult to cover in back to back weekends away from friendly confines. The Bearcats are improved from last year’s poor team, but not that much. Look for the “hungrier” home side to find a way to get the job done.
Play on Miami Ohio.
|09-08-18||Colorado v. Nebraska -4.5||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||141 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM on Nebraska (3:30 EST).
Colorado is 1-0, while Nebraska opens up its 2018/19 campaign after its game was postponed last week. The Buffs enter off a 45-13 win over Colorado State, but note that they’ve lost four of their last five on the road.
Last week QB Steven Montez had 33 yards, four TD’s and an INT in the win over the Rams. The ground game looked strong as well with 258 yards, with Travon McMillan leading the charge with 103 yards and a TD. The defense looked sharp, but clearly the unit faces a much more difficult task in Week 2.
Nebraska’s Week 1 contest was postponed due to poor weather, so the Huskers come in with a ton of anticipation and energy. After losing four straight home games, you can bet the team will be looking to reverse their fortunes here. Nebraska features an experienced offensive line.
The defense was a weak point last season, but it returns many starters and it’s expected to take a big leap in the right direction this year.
Note as well that the Buffs have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a underdog of three points or more on the road. Nebraska’s advantage in the trenches turns out to be the difference though.
Lay the points, play on Nebraska.
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +21.5||Top||42-12||Loss||-110||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on SMU (8:00 EST).
I’m grabbing the points on the big hungry home dog on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs come in complacent after their 55-7 season opening win over Southern. Conversely, the Mustangs do indeed come in hungry after falling 46-23 to North Texas on the road. Note that this is a revenge game as well for SMU after it fell 56-36 on the road at TCU last year.
Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it looked pretty good against a weak Jaguars defense last week. Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s. The Horned Frogs have three strong RB’s including Darius Anderson, who had 768 rushing yards last year. Last season the Horned Frogs allowed just 19 PPG and the defense will be a strength again this year.
SMU clearly has its hands full. And recent history is not in its favor either as it comes in having lost six straight in this series.
But I’m not calling for an outright, straight-up victory here. I just think that SMU has improved enough this season to be much more competitive this time around. The Mustangs averaged 37.8 PPG last year, but they’d also concede 36.7. QB Ben Hicks had 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Last season he had 3,500 passing yards and a strong 33/12 TD/INT.
As mentioned above, the outright win is not on the table here whatsoever. I do think though that this improved SMU side can catch TCU a bit complacent this season and I look for it keep this one interesting until the third quarter.
Grab the points, play on SMU.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||Top||24-3||Win||100||35 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Virginia Tech (8:00 EST).
Virginia Tech was dominant on the defensive side of the ball last year, but it’s going to have to make adjustments with many new faces throughout the unit this season. The Hokies though return their starting QB and I think he’ll help his team keep this one competitive.
Last year Virginia Tech finished 9-4 in the regular season. Florida State was 7-6.
The Hokies return QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last season. Overall the offense averaged 28.2 PPG last season, but that mark is expected to go up with Jackson’s expected progression.
The defense allowed just 14.8 PPG and while many of the key pieces are gone from the unit that posted those numbers, note that safety Reggie Floyd is back after he finished third on the team with 72 tackles, while also posting three INT’s.
The Seminoles welcome back Deondre Francois as their QB, as he missed most of late year with injury. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Cam Akers to start, as he finished with 5.3 YPC average.
FSU allowed just 21.2 PPG last year and the defense should be a strength this year as well.
However, as mentioned off the top I think that Jackson is going to have his opportunities tonight.
I’ll point out as well that FSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, while VT is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
Bank on a much closer than expected battle and grab as many points as you can. Play on Virginia Tech.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame +2||Top||17-24||Win||100||315 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST).
Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio.
Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG.
As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish.
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