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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||40-43||Push||0||158 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET.
KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue.
Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD.
After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well.
A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive.
Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year.
And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots.
|10-14-18||Colts +2.5 v. Jets||Top||34-42||Loss||-102||142 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).
The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others.
Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21.
Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6.
Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less.
I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||128 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on USC (10:30 EST).
Colorado enters off a 28-21 home win over Arizona State, while USC got the better of Arizona 24-20 on the road as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Trojans have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met last year USC would post the convincing 38-24 road victory.
I think Colorado comes in complacent after it’s 5-0 start. Overall the Buffs are averaging 37.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 18.4. QB Steven Montez had 328 passing with two TDs in last week’s win over Colorado State.
USC is averaging 24.6 PPG and its conceding 26.2. QB JT Daniels had 197 passing yards last week, while RB Aca’Cedric Ware had 173 rushing yards.
After two poor performances on the defensive side of the ball to Texas and Washington State, the Trojans limited Arizona to just 98 rushing yards last week.
I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records, while USC is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival.
I like USC’s improved defensive play to carry over here and I’m finally expecting the Buffs to stumble. Lay the points.
|10-11-18||Eagles -3 v. Giants||Top||34-13||Win||100||77 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST).
While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week.
Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards.
New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s.
Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home.
The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York.
Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests.
I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.
|10-07-18||Rams -7 v. Seahawks||Top||33-31||Loss||-114||148 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).
To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right?
Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point.
However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that.
Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s.
Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8.
Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s.
Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3.
The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams.
|10-07-18||Giants +7 v. Panthers||Top||31-33||Win||100||145 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs.
Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week.
The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground.
Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG.
Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range.
I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York.
|10-06-18||Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5||Top||14-20||Win||100||127 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST).
Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina.
Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17.
Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue.
Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory.
I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here.
I’m laying the points.
|10-06-18||Boston College +4 v. NC State||Top||23-28||Loss||-102||120 h 23 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST).
Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments.
NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017.
BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s.
NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores.
I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival.
I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points.
|10-05-18||Utah State +2.5 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||107 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST).
Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force.
BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington.
If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup.
Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already.
Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8.
BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT.
RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU.
The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well.
I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||35 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST).
The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage.
I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion.
Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight.
Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year.
Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter.
Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24.
I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).
It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point.
Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.)
I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though.
The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3.
Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.)
Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats.
|09-30-18||Lions +3 v. Cowboys||Top||24-26||Win||100||144 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST).
My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here.
Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990.
Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR.
The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7.
Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT.
Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record.
Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points.
|09-29-18||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-17||Win||100||125 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend.
Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27).
If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road.
Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC.
The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron.
TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road.
I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit.
I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.”
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||79 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST).
Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6.
Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2.
Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game.
Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here.
The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes.
There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.)
Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult.
LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season.
The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times.
Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Grab the points, play on the Vikes.
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs||Top||30-27||Win||100||36 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going.
Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here.
And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3.
The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2.
Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs.
Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance.
The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less.
Play on the Steelers.
|09-23-18||Patriots v. Lions +7||Top||10-26||Win||100||151 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST).
An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week.
And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend.
Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension.
New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense.
Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback.
So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet.
Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers.
Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season.
I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record.
Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously.
As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +2.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-110||126 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Oregon (8:00 EST).
Stanford comes to the Pacific Northwest off a 30-10 home win over UC Davis, while Oregon comes in off a tougher than expected 35-22 home victory over San Jose State.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Ducks after they were smoked 49-7 by the Cardinal last year.
Stanford QB KJ Costello had two TD’s but also two INT’s last week. So far he has 729 passing yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal have looked very strong defensively so far, allowing an average of just 7.7 points over the first three games.
However, there’s no question that Stanford faces its stiffest test yet.
Oregon is also 3-0. So far the Ducks have scored an average of 52 PPG, good for eighth in the country. The defense has been the weak point, but it’s still been pretty good, allowing an average of 20 PPG over the first three.
Stanford features an elite defense, but I think that unit will be on its heels all afternoon long. The Ducks come in with a chip on their shoulder and I look for their combination of high-flying offensive firepower and above average defensive play to be just too much for satisfied Stanford to keep up to down the stretch.
Play on Oregon.
|09-22-18||Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue||Top||13-30||Loss||-110||118 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (12:00 EST).
I had a big play on Purdue last week (my 35-Club Play signature release), but this weekend I’m going against the winless Boilermakers.
Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. I have a hard time seeing the Boilermakers keeping up to the Eagles though, who have averaged 52.7 PPG in the early going. The BC defense has been sharp as well, holding the opposition to just 340.7 yards per game average.
Boston College’ QB Anthony Brown has 626 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s so far. WR Kobay White has 163 yards receiving and RB AJ Dillon has 432 rushing yards and five TD’s. Dillon had 185 yards on 33 carries against Wake Forest.
Purdue is scoring an average of 27.7 PPG. QB David Blough was 39 of 55 for 572 yards, three TD’s and an INT in last week’s tight setback.
Note though that the Boilermakers are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games against teams with a winning road record, while BC is 7-1-1 ATS in its last eight nine after a SU victory.
I love BC to kick Purdue while it’s down. Lay the points.
|09-21-18||Washington State +3.5 v. USC||Top||36-39||Win||100||106 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST).
Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday.
USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas.
The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win.
So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s.
The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s.
I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars.
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns -3||Top||17-21||Win||100||80 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST).
New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami.
Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2.
Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.
New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue.
The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s.
Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well.
I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest.
I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points.
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||79 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (7:30 EST).
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the table is set for a a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in primed for a letdown after its first win of the season, a massive 35-14 upset on the road over Maryland.
Note that this is a revenge game for Tulsa after the Owls took the latest match-up 43-22 on November 25th, 2017.
Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and conceding 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards with four TD’s and three INT’s on the year.
Temple is averaging 27 PPG and it’s conceding 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s so far, while Anthony Russo has 252 yards and a TD on the season.
I’ll point out though that Tulsa is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while Temple is already 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite.
I think Temple has a classic letdown here after its big upset on the road. Well, enough of one anyways to let the Golden Hurricane to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the sizeable spread that they’ve been afforded.
Grab the points.
|09-15-18||Missouri v. Purdue +8||Top||40-37||Win||100||122 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on Purdue (7:30 EST).
Missouri comes in a tiny bit complacent after two straight victories, most recently throttling Wyoming 40-13 at home last Saturday.
Purdue though comes in desperate as it’s dropped two in a row, including a shocking 20-19 setback at home to Eastern Michigan as a 16 point favorite last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances tonight as when these teams met last year, it was Purdue that came away with the 35-3 road victory on September 16th, 2017.
Missouri is so far averaging 396 YPG, averaging 45.5 PPG. QB Drew Lock has 687 yards with eight TD’s so far this season. Overall the Tigers are allowing just 13.5 PPG early, but clearly the unit faces a stiff test today against the hungry and determined Boilermakers.
So far Purdue is averaging 23 PPG, as David Blough has 122 yards passing and 36 rushing, while co-QB Elijah Sindelz has 283 yards, two TD’s and three picks. The defense has been a bright spot though, allowing only 25.5 PPG.
This is a great situational play in my opinion. I think Missouri comes in complacent here in this non-conference matchup as it gets caught looking ahead to its conference schedule.
Purdue does not have that luxury at all though obviously and I think the intensity in which the Boilermakers play with today will turn out to be the difference. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in a much closer than expected battle.
|09-13-18||Old Dominion v. Charlotte +2||Top||25-28||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Charlotte (6:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end.
ODU is so far winless on the year with setback to Liberty and FIU, while Charlotte opened with a victory over Fordham, before then dropping its second game against a surging Appalachian State team.
The Monarchs have looked horrible. Last week QB Steven Williams and Blake LaRussa combined to go 13 of 19 for 237 yards and two TD’s in the first half, but then went just 6 of 18 for 66 yards the rest of the way.
Charlotte also uses two QB’s. This week we can expect to see a lot of Hasaan Klugh, who was mainly featured as a runner last weekend.
The 49ers got some great individual defensive play in the blowout setback to the Mountaineers, as safety Ben Deluca had 11 total tackles.
I’ll point out as well that Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, while ODU is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests and a dismal 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss.
The Monarchs are banged up and their offense is stuck in neutral. Meanwhile the 49ers have looked a lot better through all three phases. This one has ATS blowout written all over it. Play on Charlotte.
|09-13-18||Boston College -5.5 v. Wake Forest||Top||41-34||Win||100||76 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boston College (7:30 EST).
An important early ACC clash favors the visitors on Thursday night in my opinion.
BC enters off a 62-14 smoke-job over Holy Cross last weekend, while Wake demolished Towson 51-20. Note that this is a revenge game for the Eagles after Wake recorded a 34-10 victory at Boston College last year.
Eagles’ QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter last week and he threw four TD’s. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. So far BC has looked fantastic on both sides of the ball over its first two games.
Wake Forest has won its first two games as well. QB Sam Hartman had 242 passing yards and two TD’s last week, while the defense held Towson to just 65 rushing yards.
However note that the Demon Deacons have struggled against the pass early, as evidenced by the 345 passing yards they gave up last week.
I’ll pint out as well that Wake Forest is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards, while BC is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven conference tilts.
The Eagles have the superior pass defense, a unit which finished 22nd in the country last year. I think that’ll be the difference tonight. Lay the points, play on Boston College.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +3||Top||33-13||Loss||-100||1046 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST).
Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas.
|09-09-18||Bears +9 v. Packers||Top||23-24||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST).
This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes.
Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year.
QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel.
On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after.
Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games.
Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late.
No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points.
|09-08-18||Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -1||Top||21-0||Loss||-105||145 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
Cincinnati is 1-0 and Miami Ohio is 0-1. I look for the home side to lay everything on the line today though as it looks to get off the schneid.
The Bearcats come in off a highly satisfying 26-17 road win over UCLA as two TD underdog. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? The Bearcats had 305 yards of offense and they also conceded about 305 yards on defense. Desmon Ridder was just 13 of 24 for 100 yards.
The Redhawks were small dogs when their game kicked off against visiting Marshall in Week 1 and Miami Ohio would wind up falling 35-28. The Redhawks though had 445 yards of offense and I expect the unit to build off that performance.
QB Gus Ragland was 25 of 46 for 357 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Jack Sorenson was key in the passing game with three catches for 106 yards and a major score.
It’s difficult to win on the road and even more difficult to cover in back to back weekends away from friendly confines. The Bearcats are improved from last year’s poor team, but not that much. Look for the “hungrier” home side to find a way to get the job done.
Play on Miami Ohio.
|09-08-18||Colorado v. Nebraska -4.5||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||141 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM on Nebraska (3:30 EST).
Colorado is 1-0, while Nebraska opens up its 2018/19 campaign after its game was postponed last week. The Buffs enter off a 45-13 win over Colorado State, but note that they’ve lost four of their last five on the road.
Last week QB Steven Montez had 33 yards, four TD’s and an INT in the win over the Rams. The ground game looked strong as well with 258 yards, with Travon McMillan leading the charge with 103 yards and a TD. The defense looked sharp, but clearly the unit faces a much more difficult task in Week 2.
Nebraska’s Week 1 contest was postponed due to poor weather, so the Huskers come in with a ton of anticipation and energy. After losing four straight home games, you can bet the team will be looking to reverse their fortunes here. Nebraska features an experienced offensive line.
The defense was a weak point last season, but it returns many starters and it’s expected to take a big leap in the right direction this year.
Note as well that the Buffs have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a underdog of three points or more on the road. Nebraska’s advantage in the trenches turns out to be the difference though.
Lay the points, play on Nebraska.
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +21.5||Top||42-12||Loss||-110||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on SMU (8:00 EST).
I’m grabbing the points on the big hungry home dog on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs come in complacent after their 55-7 season opening win over Southern. Conversely, the Mustangs do indeed come in hungry after falling 46-23 to North Texas on the road. Note that this is a revenge game as well for SMU after it fell 56-36 on the road at TCU last year.
Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it looked pretty good against a weak Jaguars defense last week. Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s. The Horned Frogs have three strong RB’s including Darius Anderson, who had 768 rushing yards last year. Last season the Horned Frogs allowed just 19 PPG and the defense will be a strength again this year.
SMU clearly has its hands full. And recent history is not in its favor either as it comes in having lost six straight in this series.
But I’m not calling for an outright, straight-up victory here. I just think that SMU has improved enough this season to be much more competitive this time around. The Mustangs averaged 37.8 PPG last year, but they’d also concede 36.7. QB Ben Hicks had 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Last season he had 3,500 passing yards and a strong 33/12 TD/INT.
As mentioned above, the outright win is not on the table here whatsoever. I do think though that this improved SMU side can catch TCU a bit complacent this season and I look for it keep this one interesting until the third quarter.
Grab the points, play on SMU.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||Top||24-3||Win||100||35 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Virginia Tech (8:00 EST).
Virginia Tech was dominant on the defensive side of the ball last year, but it’s going to have to make adjustments with many new faces throughout the unit this season. The Hokies though return their starting QB and I think he’ll help his team keep this one competitive.
Last year Virginia Tech finished 9-4 in the regular season. Florida State was 7-6.
The Hokies return QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last season. Overall the offense averaged 28.2 PPG last season, but that mark is expected to go up with Jackson’s expected progression.
The defense allowed just 14.8 PPG and while many of the key pieces are gone from the unit that posted those numbers, note that safety Reggie Floyd is back after he finished third on the team with 72 tackles, while also posting three INT’s.
The Seminoles welcome back Deondre Francois as their QB, as he missed most of late year with injury. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Cam Akers to start, as he finished with 5.3 YPC average.
FSU allowed just 21.2 PPG last year and the defense should be a strength this year as well.
However, as mentioned off the top I think that Jackson is going to have his opportunities tonight.
I’ll point out as well that FSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, while VT is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
Bank on a much closer than expected battle and grab as many points as you can. Play on Virginia Tech.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame +2||Top||17-24||Win||100||315 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST).
Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio.
Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG.
As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish.
|08-31-18||Syracuse -6 v. Western Michigan||Top||55-42||Win||100||291 h 41 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Syracuse (6:00 EST).
This is the first meeting ever between the teams. Syracuse will be looking for a better result early this season after going 4-8 last year. Western Michigan was 6-6.
The Orange are expected to compete for a Bowl position this season as they have eight starters back on offense and six on defense.
Syracuse QB is senior Eric Dungey, who had 2,495 yards, 14 TD’s and nine INT’s last season. The Orange had a more difficult schedule last year, so coach Dino Baber is expecting major progression in his third-year running the show. Defensively the team was a bit of a mess, but the ACC is unforgiving. However as mentioned above, the defensive unit should also be improved with six starters returning.
Overall the Orange were ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense last year and 106th in total defense.
WMU was 6-6 last year, but it wasn’t enough to get a bowl invite. The defense was horrible as well and it returns just five starters this season. The only way the unit can go is up this year, but the defensive side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak area.
The offense returns eight starters, including QB Jon Waasink, who had 1,411 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s last season. RB Javion Franklin, who had 1,200 yards rushing last year is gone though and he really did make opposing defenses “honest.”
Last year WMU was ranked 79th in the country in scoring and 55th in total yards allowed.
It’s the ACC vs. the MAC. I think Syracuse has the better and more competent QB in this matchup. The Orange were a well-oiled offensive machine last year and I believe they’ll be too much for WMU to hang with down the stretch.
Lay the points, play on Syracuse.
|08-25-18||Hawaii +14 v. Colorado State||Top||43-34||Win||100||660 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Hawaii (7:30 EST).
Two flawed teams go at it on opening day as the Rainbow Warriors try to keep things together around a new quarterback and the Rams are hoping for a completely rebuilt defense to figure things out until newcomers can gain enough experience to compete on a high level. The Hawaii QB figures to be strong-armed Cole McDonald, who at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds has the look of a solid QB, if not the resume. McDonald will resurrect the run-and-shoot offense that was abandoned last season, and he should have some opportunities against Colorado State, which gutted its defense (including the coaches) and is starting from scratch. But the tide goes both in and out in this one, as the Rainbow Warriors’ inexperience on offense (the O-Line and running game are starting over) could find it a challenge against even the Rams’ porous D. Hawaii has lost seven straight in this series, including a 30-point (51-21) drubbing last season on the island. With both programs struggling to gain traction, go with Hawaii to at least cover the 14 in a game that could be sloppy.
|01-21-18||Vikings -3.5 v. Eagles||Top||7-38||Loss||-100||153 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Minnesota Vikings (6:40 EST).
The 14-3 Minnesota Vikings are in Philadelphia to take on the 14-3 Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it.
These are a couple of the league’s best defensive clubs, but I think this one will comfortably sneak over this lower-number once it’s all said and done.
Minnesota comes in off a 29-24 home win over New Orleans on a last second TD, while Philadelphia got the better of Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday.
The Vikes managed the big win last week, but their vaunted defense looked pretty horrible in allowing 24 second half points. In the end Minnesota allowed 358 yards.
Minnesota QB Case Keenum had 318 yards, one TD and one INT last week, while Stefon Diggs would go on to catch the 61 yard TD reception as time ran off the clock.
The Vikings come into the Conference Championship game averaging 23.9 PPG, while conceding 15.8.
Nick Foles is under center for the home side after starter Carson Wentz was lost to injury late in the regular season. Foles was an efficient 23 of 30 for 246 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s last week.
The Eagles average 28.6 PPG, while conceding 18.4. Jay Ajayi had 54 yards on 15 carries last Saturday. Philadelphia looked sharp defensively, but I think it’ll have its hands full with Minnesota’s balanced attack.
I’ll point out as well that the Vikings have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 29 or more points in their previous outing, while conversely this has been one area in which the Eagles have struggled in, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three after holding their previous opponent to ten points or less.
I look for the Vikes to take this one back home and to be the first team in history to host a Super Bowl. Lay the points.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-29||Win||100||153 h 48 m||Show|
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Minnesota Vikings (4:40 EST).
New Orleans comes in off a thrilling 31-26 home win over Carolina in the Wildcard round, while Minnesota earned a first round bye after posting a 13-3 regular season record.
Note that when these teams played in Week 1, it was the Vikes that easily took care of business 29-19. Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 291 yards and one TD in that one.
Brees had 376 passing yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s last week. WR Michael Thomas had 131 yards, but was held to just five catches for 45 yards in the Week 1 loss to Minnesota.
New Orleans looked very one-dimensional as well last week, posting just 41 yards rushing, including just 23 from rookie Alvin Kamara.
The Saints comes into this one averaging 28 PPG and conceding 20.4.
Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG and concedes a NFL best 15.8. In fact over their final three regular season games the Vikes allowed just 17 combined points. QB Case Keenum sports an elite 22/7 TD/INT and posted ten TD’s over his final six games.
The Vikes run game played a key part in the team’s success as well as it finished seventh in the NFL on the ground. Keep your eyes on the duo of Latavius Murry and Jerick McKinnon.
I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six home playoff games.
The Vikes got the job done all year with their smothering defensive plays (ranked second both against the pass and run) and I ultimately believe they’ll ride the unit to another solid victory in front of the home town crowd and with the extra week off to prepare.
The Saints have had a great year, but the story ends tonight in this tough atmosphere.
Lay the points, play on Minnesota.
|01-08-18||Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia||Top||26-23||Loss||-107||158 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST).
No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide.
Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart.
The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards.
Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101.
I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s.
In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense.
But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog.
Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama.
|01-07-18||Panthers +6 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||151 h 28 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST).
The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire.
It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team.
The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21.
Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge.
The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground.
I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest.
As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team.
Grab the points, play on Carolina.
|01-06-18||Falcons v. Rams -4.5||Top||26-13||Loss||-123||131 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST).
The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier.
Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground.
Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.)
LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well.
Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records.
LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch.
Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams.
|01-01-18||Georgia v. Oklahoma||Top||54-48||Win||100||488 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST).
The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title.
Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game.
Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s.
The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio.
Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall.
I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs.
Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.”
While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia.
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5||Top||26-19||Loss||-110||362 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST).
Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records.
Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.
As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though.
A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle.
Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be?
I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival.
Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either.
I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points.
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||124 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST).
The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th.
The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens.
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year.
Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries.
I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less.
Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series.
The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can.
Play on the Bengals.
|12-30-17||Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7||Top||34-24||Loss||-115||443 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST).
The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators.
Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game.
Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG.
That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes.
The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.”
The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia.
Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game:
“Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’
Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion.
An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes.
|12-28-17||Michigan State v. Washington State||Top||42-17||Win||100||36 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST).
Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.
Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington.
WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT.
MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome.
Play on Michigan State.
|12-27-17||Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||38-35||Win||100||37 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST).
Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign.
Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one.
Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24.
Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more.
Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one.
Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers.
|12-26-17||Utah -7 v. West Virginia||Top||30-14||Win||100||358 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST).
It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing.
Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores.
WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog.
Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity?
I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done.
Lay the points.
|12-24-17||Houston v. Fresno State +2.5||Top||27-33||Win||100||317 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST).
The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu.
The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s.
Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17.
In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s.
I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf.
Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl.
Play on Fresno State.
|12-24-17||Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys||Top||21-12||Win||100||122 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).
Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams.
In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory.
Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s.
I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record.
I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||Top||42-35||Loss||-110||30 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST).
The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs.
SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play.
SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT.
Army finished 9-3.
The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker.
The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy.
I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less.
SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher.
All signs point to a rout, lay the points.
|12-21-17||Temple v. Florida International +7.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-130||35 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST).
The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale.
FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7.
The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards.
However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points,
|12-20-17||Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU||Top||51-10||Win||100||35 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST).
6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl.
The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale.
Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.”
SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two.
I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.)
I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points.
|12-19-17||Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||3-50||Loss||-110||33 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.
The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action.
Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio.
The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s.
I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores.
Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.
I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can.
|12-17-17||Eagles v. Giants +7.5||Top||34-29||Win||100||120 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).
Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory.
The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG.
This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible.
New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s.
Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.”
Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend.
The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion.
While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.
|12-16-17||Chargers v. Chiefs +2||Top||13-30||Win||100||104 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST).
The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory.
The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded.
Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s.
KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards.
I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing.
The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing.
The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown.
Play on Kansas City.
|12-16-17||Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State||Top||31-28||Win||100||121 h 8 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST).
The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall.
Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis.
Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run.
The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year.
I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests.
Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game.
I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.
|12-14-17||Broncos -2.5 v. Colts||Top||25-13||Win||100||56 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST).
The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday.
The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend.
When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done.
Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG.
Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest.
Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.
I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points.
|12-11-17||Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins||Top||20-27||Loss||-110||35 h 5 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).
The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit.
The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here.
And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory.
So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7.
Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9.
I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series.
I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots.
|12-10-17||Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars||Top||24-30||Loss||-110||142 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).
The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors.
Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year.
The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee.
The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total.
I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory.
As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy -3.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST).
The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen.
Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action.
Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17.
The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan.
Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game.
Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries.
Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas.
Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf.
I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy.
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +1||Top||17-20||Win||100||74 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST).
The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota.
The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons.
New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG.
Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321.
New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall.
Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals +6||Top||23-20||Win||100||35 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST).
The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening.
This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd.
If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers.
The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense.
Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||127 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST).
The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory.
Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG.
That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards.
USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest.
I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points.
|11-26-17||Bucs v. Falcons -9.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||119 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)
The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend.
The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami.
Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.
But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now:
“We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.”
I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest.
This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch.
Lay the points, play on the Falcons.
|11-25-17||Alabama v. Auburn +4||Top||14-26||Win||100||147 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST).
The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend.
Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14.
Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground.
The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far.
Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack.
Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points.
QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground.
Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points!
|11-24-17||Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas||Top||27-23||Win||100||107 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).
Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500.
Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games.
Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU.
I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early.
The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible.
The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today.
Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points.
|11-23-17||Chargers v. Cowboys||Top||28-6||Win||100||72 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST).
The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one.
Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground.
The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s.
Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup.
I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing.
Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company.
Play on the Chargers.
|11-21-17||Miami-OH v. Ball State +18||Top||28-7||Loss||-110||47 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes.
The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense.
The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side.
Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-19-17||Ravens v. Packers +2||Top||23-0||Loss||-110||126 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET.
The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20.
Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday.
In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries.
Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground.
Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.
The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.
Play on Green Bay.
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5||Top||16-39||Win||100||76 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST).
The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th.
BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening.
The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well.
The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests.
BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|11-17-17||UNLV +2 v. New Mexico||Top||38-35||Win||100||111 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST).
UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today.
New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M.
With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week.
The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground.
The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on UNLV.
|11-16-17||Titans v. Steelers -7||Top||17-40||Win||100||56 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST).
The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals.
Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case.
Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.)
Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th.
And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster.
The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4)
The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games.
I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage.
Lay the points, play on the Steelers.
|11-16-17||Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5||Top||40-24||Win||100||84 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week.
However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small.
The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend.
Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores.
Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival.
And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range.
I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points.
|11-15-17||Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5||Top||31-35||Loss||-115||60 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST).
Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play.
Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent.
Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season.
The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week.
WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation.
Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side.
I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points.
The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game.
I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early.
Lay the points.
|11-14-17||Ohio v. Akron +13||Top||34-37||Win||100||24 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio.
Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week.
Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD.
I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records.
The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well.
Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points.
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +8.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-135||103 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST).
The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home.
The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend.
So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season.
Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores.
This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season.
So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points.
Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points.
|11-11-17||NC State -3 v. Boston College||Top||17-14||Push||0||72 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST).
The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors.
I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State.
NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week.
Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion.
Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year.
NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s. WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss.
The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2.
Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th.
In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG.
I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers.
BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense.
I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points.
|11-10-17||Temple v. Cincinnati +2.5||Top||35-24||Loss||-100||107 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST).
The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here.
Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.)
Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries.
I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records.
I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati.
|11-09-17||Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5||Top||6-27||Win||100||83 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST).
The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity.
The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish.
Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend.
And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory.
Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries.
Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.)
I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers.
|11-08-17||Kent State v. Western Michigan -21.5||Top||20-48||Win||100||59 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST).
The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.
The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend.
Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground.
WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend.
Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause.
The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense.
I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss.
The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points.
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -11||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||36 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST).
The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points.
The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green.
Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one.
I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records.
The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo.
|11-06-17||Lions -2 v. Packers||Top||30-17||Win||100||49 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).
The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season.
That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light.
Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game.
In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards.
Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG.
Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss.
Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on the Lions.
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||140 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST).
The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory.
Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season.
Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s.
So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5.
Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG.
Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air.
Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s.
Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd.
Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon.
The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points.
|11-03-17||Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -10||Top||25-30||Loss||-110||119 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST).
The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls.
Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.)
FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall.
Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings.
Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game.
The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl.
Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year.
I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.
|11-02-17||Ball State +22.5 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||14-56||Loss||-110||95 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo.
EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team.
The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground.
EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch.
I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-01-17||Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan||Top||35-28||Win||100||74 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST).
The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year.
So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well.
The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459.
Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan.
|10-31-17||Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio||Top||28-45||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST).
The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks.
Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s.
Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG.
I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points.
|10-30-17||Broncos v. Chiefs -7||Top||19-29||Win||100||58 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).
Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th.
I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position.
Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.)
Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss.
Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment.
Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season.
KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG.
The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense.
KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent.
But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night.
|10-29-17||Steelers -2.5 v. Lions||Top||20-15||Win||100||127 h 17 m||Show|
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).
The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger.
Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati.
Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT.
Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games.
The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71:
“The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.”
Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year.
The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records.
Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games.
Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.
|10-28-17||Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5||Top||24-19||Win||100||121 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).
The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch.
Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own.
The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.)
UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools.
So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled.
But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend.
I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series.
With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend.
The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well.
It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points.
|10-26-17||Dolphins v. Ravens -3||Top||0-40||Win||100||55 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST).
The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore.
The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend.
As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts.
The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far.
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.)
I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less.
Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points.
|10-26-17||Toledo v. Ball State +26||Top||58-17||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation.
The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins.
Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.)
Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries.
The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season:
“This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.”
With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today.
Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest.
I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State.
|10-22-17||Seahawks -5 v. Giants||Top||24-7||Win||100||143 h 51 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).
The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.
The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.
Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night.
Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.
The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit.
New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.
I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.
The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.
Lay the points.
|10-21-17||SMU v. Cincinnati +8.5||Top||31-28||Win||100||118 h 15 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST).
The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side.
I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF.
SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago.
SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.”
In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s.
Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call.
Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points.
Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one.
Play on Cincinnati.
|10-20-17||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10||Top||35-31||Win||100||120 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST).
The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season.
So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them.
The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. )
WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories.
Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest.
As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points.
|10-19-17||Memphis v. Houston -3||Top||42-38||Loss||-115||98 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST).
The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa.
Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year.
Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year.
Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year.
Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day.
From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game.
I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago.
Play on Houston.
|10-16-17||Colts +9 v. Titans||Top||22-36||Loss||-125||26 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).
The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup.
Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.
So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05.
Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far.
Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties.
Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.
And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD.
I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.
Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points!
|10-15-17||Dolphins v. Falcons -11||Top||20-17||Loss||-110||139 h 57 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).
The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing.
Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans.
Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled.
Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year.
The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.)
I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week.
Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment.
With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points.
|10-14-17||Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||142 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory.
Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend.
The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s.
The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory.
QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s.
UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season.
Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company.
Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency.
Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October.
I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points.
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +16||Top||3-37||Win||100||126 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST).
The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS.
Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year.
So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s.
Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground.
I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range.
The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup.
Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself.
While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California.
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||75 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST).
The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here.
The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.
Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory.
The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well.
In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend.
Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries.
Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.)
Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one.
Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less.
As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest.
I’m laying the points.
|10-12-17||Texas State +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||7-24||Loss||-115||99 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST).
Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing.
Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year.
Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week.
The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette.
The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards.
UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing.
I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest.
I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State.
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