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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-01-18||Georgia +13.5 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||97 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* SEC Championship Game Winner is on Georgia (4:00 EST).
This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff and I think that Georgia bettors will get a small amount of “revenge” tonight.
Alabama is 12-0 and it avenged its loss to the Tigers in the Iron Bowl last season with a 52-21 victory. Overall the Crimson Tide rolled up 500 yards of offense, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for five TDs.
Tagovailoa has an insane 36/2 TD/INT on the year. Defensively the Tide are strong too obviously, having not allowed an opponent to gain 300 total yards in its last six contests.
Georgia won’t be going down without a fight. The Bulldogs are 11-1 and they have to win this game, or this will be the end of their season (other than the upcoming bowl of course, but a playoff spot out of the question and no SEC shot.)
The Dogs though come in on top form as well, having won five straight, including a 45-21 destruction of Georgia Tech last weekend. QB Jake Fromm had three first half TD passes. Fromm has a 24/5 TD/INT.
Georgia has the defense to compete today, allowing just 17.2 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while the favorite is 0-5 in the last five meetings between these teams.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a “nail biter.” Grab the points.
|12-01-18||Stanford -2.5 v. California||Top||23-13||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF YEAR is on Stanford (3:00 EST).
Stanford enters off a momentum building 48-17 home win over Oregon State, while Cal’s also off a big victory, holding on for an upset 15-14 road victory over USC. Note that Stanford won this matchup at home last year 17-14.
This is a make-up game from a couple of weeks ago because of the wildfires.
Stanford’ QB KJ Costello had 342 yards with four TD’s and an INT in its latest win over the Beavers. The Cardinal are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re allowing 23.0.
Cal is averaging only 22.7 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 21.1 PPG. The Bears’ defense has looked sharp of late, but I think the unit gets tested in a big way here against Costello and company.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight after posting less than 275 total yards in its previous game, while Stanford is a solid 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 after posting more than 40 points in its previous game.
I have a hard time seeing the Bears’ offense keeping pace down the stretch. With an extra week off to prepare, I like Costello to find a way to get the job done.
Lay the points.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||107 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Championship WINNER is on Northern Illinois.
Buffalo went 10-2 in the regular season and 7-1 in MAC action, while NIU went 7-5 with a 6-2 record in MAC conference play.
If recent history is any precedence though, then NIU has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met last year, it was the Huskies that posted the 14-13 road win.
The Bulls averaged 35.2 PPG this year and they conceded 24.2. In the Bulls regular season finale they ran for 332 rushing yards in a 44-14 road win over Bowling Green. QB Tyree Jackson finished with a 25/11 TD/INT.
The NIU Huskies averaged only 19.9 PPG, while limiting opponents to 20.9 PPG. The offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who had 100 rushing yards in three out of his last four games.
I’ll point out as well that NIU is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field.
The Huskies took the foot off the gas a little early to end the regular season, but NIU has the defense to keep it in this one. I’m expecting an all out war.
Grab the points.
|11-24-18||Utah State +3 v. Boise State||Top||24-33||Loss||-114||112 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Utah State (10:15 EST).
To be the best, you have to beat the best. The 10-1 Utah State Aggies will look to dethrone the 9-2 Boise State Broncos.
The Aggies come in having won ten straight after a 29-24 win over Colorado State last weekend. QB Jordan Love has been exceptional so far this season with 25 TDs and four INTs.
But Utah State also has a pair of elite RBs in Gerold Bright and Darwin Thompson, who have combined for 1,670 yards rushing and 22 TDs.
The Aggies have been unstoppable offensively this year, averaging 500.1 yards of total offense, while posting 49.3 PPG (ranked No. 2 in the country!)
Boise State has won six straight, most recently a 45-14 victory over lowly New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien has been a standout with 3,270 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs. On the season the Broncos are averaging 465 yards and 37.4 points per game.
I’ll point out though that Utah State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. the conference, while Boise State is only 6-15 ATS in its last 21 home games.
Finally note that the road team is in fact 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series as well.
I like the Aggies’ amazing offense to be just too much for the Broncos to keep up with down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|11-23-18||Washington v. Washington State -3||Top||28-15||Loss||-106||86 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Washington State (8:30 EST).
The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship game next weekend and in my opinion. home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest.
WSU comes in with a ton of momentum with seven straight victories. The Huskies have been playing well as well, with back-to-back wins over Stanford and Oregon State.
Jake Browning and the Huskies have three losses this year, so they won’t be going to the Football Championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can win out, but I think they’ll fall flat against a surging WSU team which plays with triple revenge, having fallen to Browning three times already.
The Cougars now have the best offense in the Pac 12, averaging 40.5 PPG. No other team in the conference is putting up more than 35.5.
WSU most recently obliterated Arizona 69-28, with QB Gardner Minshew throwing for seven TD passes.
So far Minshew has 36 TDs and just seven INTs.
Note as well that Washington State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records, while Washington is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on WSU.
|11-17-18||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||126 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Cincinnati (8:00 EST).
This is a big game for both teams. The Bearcats are 9-1 and the UCF Knights are 9-0.
Cincinnati has won four of its last five on the road and QB Desmond Ridder has 1,897 passing yards and a sharp 15/5 TD/INT. Note that Ridder has two or more TD passes in six of his last eight games. The ground game is averaging whopping 235.8 YPG, led by Michael Warren II with 1,082 yard and 17 TDs.
Overall the Bearcats are allowing just 14.9 points and 279.8 YPG.
The Knights’ McKenzie Milton has 2,309 yards passing and a 21/5 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 271.4 YPG and the defense is conceding 21.8.
I think the Bearcats will have their chances today. They’re already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog. UFC though is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records.
UCF may ultimately win this one outright, but I look for Ridder and company to take this one down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-17-18||Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss +2.5||Top||20-21||Win||100||122 h 51 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (9*) Southern Miss (3:30 EST).
Southern Miss comes in off a a near upset of UAB and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here.
Louisiana Tech enters off a victory over lowly Rice, but I think the Bulldogs come up short here.
Bulldogs’ QB J’Mar Smith had 314 yards with one TD and two INTs last week. But Louisiana Tech is going to have its hands full with this Golden Eagles team which just pushed the mighty Blazers to OT.
QB Tate Whatley and the offense managed 23 points last week and note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +3.5 points range.
I think the Southern Miss defense is the difference maker, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Play on Southern Miss.
|11-16-18||Memphis -8 v. SMU||Top||28-18||Win||100||104 h 42 m||Show|
My 10* AAC West Showdown is on Memphis (9:00 EST).
Memphis is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while SMU is 5-5 and needing one more win to punch its ticket. The Tigers won’t be satisfied with simply making a bowl game though and they’ll love nothing more than to prolong the Mustangs chances for another week. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting a decisive Memphis win.
The Tigers have won two straight, but they’ll be cautious here as they’ve lost three of their last four away from friendly confines. QB Brady White so far has 2,512 passing yards and a sharp 22/3 TD/INT. Overall Memphis is allowing 30.5 PPG.
SMU has won two in a row and three of its last four at home, but with the step up in competition, I believe the Mustangs predictably stumble here. William Brown and Ben Hicks have combined for 23 TD passes and five INTs. The Mustangs are even worse defensively than Memphis though, allowing 36.8 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games and that the favorite is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.
The Tigers have scored more than 30 points five straight games and I look for that trend to carry over here.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3 v. North Texas||Top||38-41||Push||0||80 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Florida Atlantic (9:30 EST).
FAU enters off a 34-15 drubbing of WKU and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Mean Green though enter off a tough 34-31 loss against ODU last weekend and I believe it’ll stumble again here as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then FAU has to be liking its chances for another big victory tonight, because when these teams met last year it was FAU that posted the 69-31 home win.
FAU has in fact won two in a row. The Owls don’t really rely on QB Chris Robison, who has an admittedly poor 8/10 TD/INT. He was very sharp last week though by completing 17 of 21 for 231 yards. But the FAU offense revolves around RB Devin Singletary, who already has 1,169 rushing yards to go along with 20 TD’s.
Overall the Owls are averaging 31.1 PPG and they’re conceding 31.3.
North Texas is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.3, but last week it looked poor in the road loss to ODU. QB Mason Fine had 240 yards and two TDs and he still has an amazing 23/2 TD/INT on the year, but after last week’s collapse, I think the hungry Owls will have their opportunities today to pull off the outright upset.
Note that FAU is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while UNT is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year and already 0-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-14-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois||Top||13-7||Win||100||55 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I believe this is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.
NIU is rolling after back to back wins over Toledo and Akron, while Miami Ohio kept its bowl hopes alive with an impressive victory over Ohio last Wednesday.
The Redhawks have no time to dwell on that win though as they have to keep the foot on the gas if they want to reach the promised land. Special teams came up big for Miami Ohio last week, as it would block a punt in the end zone for a TD. The defense also posted a second half fourth quarter safety.
NIU is getting great play from RB Tre Harbison, who had 21 carries for 139 yards last week. QB Marcus Childers though hasn’t been spectacular and I think he’ll struggle against this aggressive and improving Miami Ohio defense.
Note as well that Miami Ohio is already 3-0 ATS tho shear off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is still only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favourite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Redhawks look vastly improved defensively last week and another effort like that could have them scoring the outright upset tonight. That said, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll grab the points.
|11-10-18||California +5 v. USC||Top||15-14||Win||100||130 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on California (10:30 EST).
Both teams need one more win to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a war to the end in this one.
Cal will be hungry here to get back on track after it fell 19-13 to WSU this past weekend. A bright spot in the setback was the play of QB Chase Garbers, who had 127 yards, one TD, one INT and another 67 yards on the ground. Cal is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.9.
USC looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after it broke its two game slide last time out with a 38-21 win over Oregon State. Aca-Cedric Ware had 205 rushing yards and three TDs.
Overall the Trojans are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re conceding 27.9.
I’ll point out as well that Cal is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 14 points or less in a conference loss in its last outing, while USC is only 2-6 ATS In its last eight after scoring 37 points or more in a conference contest in its previous outing.
Ultimately I think the Golden Bears’ elite defense keeps them in this one late and as stated off the top, I’m expecting a competitive battle until the final moments.
Grab as many points as you can, play on Cal.
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -3.5||Top||25-32||Win||100||122 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Utah (5:30 EST).
Both teams enter at 6-3, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done.
The Ducks broke their two-game slide with a 42-21 win over UCLA last time out, punching their sixth win of the year and eligibility. Oregon was actually out gained by UCLA 496-492, but the Ducks would benefit from recovering three turnovers.
Overall Oregon is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s led by QB Justin Herbert, who has 22 TDs and six INTs. The Ducks’ defensively allow 27.6 PPG.
The Utes average 30.3 PPG and they concede only 19.1. RB Zack Moss has 11 TD’s on the year while averaging over 121 YPG.
The Ducks bounced back after consecutive losses on the road, but I think they’ll struggle again here in this difficult venue. Utah lost starting QB Tyler Huntley last time out, but behind Moss and a 17th ranked defensive unit, I believe the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Lay the points.
|11-09-18||Fresno State v. Boise State +3||Top||17-24||Win||100||106 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boise State (10:15 EST).
Fresno State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 MWC play with a one-game lead over SDSU, who it hosts next weekend. Can anyone say “look-ahead/letdown” spot?! The Bulldogs come in off seven straight wins, most recently destroying UNLV 48-3 on the road last Saturday.
Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in MWC action and it’s still in the mix as well, sitting one game back of No. 18 Utah State for the Mountain Division lead. The Broncos come in on top form as well, winners of four straight, they’ll now look to pull off the slight upset and play spoiler.
The Bulldogs look strong on both sides of the ball, as they’ve given up just three TDs and 36 points in MWC play.
Boist State QB Brett Rypien had 214 yards and a TD in last week’s win over BYU. So far he has 24 TD passes this year. The Broncos are also among the best in the nation defensively, with 12 fumbles recovered thus far.
I’ll point out as well that Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Fresno State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after five or more SU victories.
This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points.
|11-07-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||54 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Miami Ohio (7:00 EST).
Ohio has won four straight and I think it’s going to suffer a letdown here against the hungry RedHawks, who enter having lost two in a row.
The Bobcats most recently enter off a 52-14 win over Ball State and a 59-14 road victory over WMU as a three-point underdog. AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons combined for 188 yards rushing and three TDs in last week’s victory.
And while Miami Ohio has had to endure injuries this year, it’s not going down without a fight today as it still looks to become eligible. While the defense struggled in last week’s loss to the high-powered Bulls, the offense was firing on all cylinders once again and I expect the unit to bring the same intensity in this important/crucial game as well.
I’ll point out as well that the RedHawks are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 following a conference game (including 4-0 ATS this year) and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as an underdog, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range.
Grab the points and expect a “nail-biter.” Play on Miami Ohio.
|11-03-18||California +10.5 v. Washington State||Top||13-19||Win||100||130 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on California (10:45 EST).
After four straight wins, I think that WSU comes in a big complacent vs. its lowly opponent, enough of a letdown anyways to let the hungry visitors sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
WSU had a one-half game lead over Washington and it’ll be difficult not to get caught “looking ahead” to The Apple Cup.
Cal’s on the edge of eligibility as well and it’ll be eager to pull off the upset. The Golden Bears haven’t been to a bowl game since losing to Air Force in the 2015 Armed Forces Bowl.
But the Golden Bears are poised for a return after last week’s 12-10 upset of then No. 12 Washington last Saturday. QB Chase Garbers returned two games ago and since then he’s gone 33 of 49 for 387 yards, three TDs and zero INTs.
It won’t be easy obviously facing Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense, but after a slim 41-38 win at Stanford last Saturday, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot
Not surprisingly, Cougars’ QB Gardner Minshew leads the nation in passing yards and is fifth in TD passes.
I’ll point out though that Washington State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-02-18||Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia||Top||23-13||Win||100||103 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Pittsburgh (7:30 EST).
Pittsburgh comes in off a shootout victory over Duke and I look for the Panthers to carry that offensive momentum over here against Virginia, which comes in contented off three straight victories.
The Panthers most recently pulled away for a 54-45 win over the Blue Devils. V’Lique Carter had 137 yards rushing and two TD’s, while Qadree Ollison had 149 yards and a TD as well.
The Cavs enter off the 31-21 victory over UNC, but this is s spot in which Virginia has done terribly in for bettors over the years, going just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after playing a conference game. Note that the Cavs are also just 3-4 ATS in their last seven off a win against a conference rival.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has excelled in this spot by going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think it goes right down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|11-01-18||Ohio v. Western Michigan -2||Top||59-14||Loss||-104||80 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
WMU's 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo ended the Broncos' six-game winning streak and dropped them one game back of Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC's West title. However, WMU still controls its own destiny, Win here at home vs Ohio plus Nov 13 at Ball St (currently a 3-6 team) and the Broncos will host Northern Illinois on Nov 20 with the winner qualifying for the MAC championship game.
First things first, let's talk Ohio U. The Bobacats are 5-3, including 3-1 in the MAC East, one game back of 4-0 Buffalo. However, the Bobcats have back-to-back road games here at WMU and then against the school's long-time rival, Miami-Ohio. After that, it's a home date with Buffalo, which is arguably the MAC's best team (7-1 overall). Note that Ohio is just 1-3 away from home, allowing an average of 33.3 PPG in its three losses, with its lone win coming 27-26 at Kent (go-ahead score came with about 1 1/2 minutes left), which is just 1-7 overall (0-4 in MAC play).
I’ll point out that Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while WMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after posting more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.
Bottom line is that oddsmaker' overreacted to WMU's shocking 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo and bettors have piled on. Almost ALL the money is on Ohio but I expect a comfortable Western Michigan win.
|10-27-18||Texas v. Oklahoma State +3||Top||35-38||Win||100||127 h 36 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Oklahoma State (8:00 EST).
While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.
Texas held on for a 23-17 road win over Baylor last time out and I think the Longhorns finally have a letdown here in this difficult venue and after five straight victories. QB Sam Ehlinger so far has 1,534 yards passing with an 11/2 TD/INT, while completing 65.7 percent of his passes, while RB Keontay Ingram so far has 403 yards rushing. Overall Texas is averaging 30.7 PPG.
Oklahoma State is the “hungrier” team here no doubt after losing three of its last four, most recently a 31-12 setback to K-State.
Cowboys’ QB Taylor Cornelius though is a difference maker, as he already has 2,009 passing yards and a decent 16/8 TD/INT. Overall OKS is averaging 493 total yards of offense per game, along with 39.4 PPG.
I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while Oklahoma State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog.
As stated off the top,while I do in fact believe the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Play on Oklahoma State.
|10-27-18||Georgia -7 v. Florida||Top||36-17||Win||100||122 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Georgia (3:30 EST).
A couple of 6-1 teams collide from EverBank Field in Jacksonville Florida on Saturday afternoon.
The Gators have won five in a row and they moved to 4-1 in conference play after a 37-27 victory over Vanderbilt. QB Feleipe Franks has 1,406 yards with 15 TDs and five INTs, while only completing 56.6 percent of his passes. Overall Florida is averaging 34.4 PPG.
The Bulldogs come in off their first loss of the year, a 36-16 setback to LSU. Georgia though has had its bye week to filter and process the loss and I think the extra time off will prove to be very beneficial for the Bulldogs.
With their first loss out of the way and with a full week to process and refocus, it could in fact be the best thing that could have happened for Georgia this season. So far QB Jake Fromm has 1,409 yards passing with a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the Bulldogs are averaging 39 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Florida is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field, while Georgia is 5-3 ATS in it slast eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on a neutral field.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Georgia.
|10-26-18||Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College||Top||14-27||Loss||-104||102 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* ACC Game Of The Month is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST).
Miami Florida comes in off a stunning loss to Virginia and suffice it to say, I think the Hurricanes take out their frustrations on the Eagles.
Last week Miami fell 16-13 on the road and it’ll now try to steamroll a BC side which comes in off a satisfying 38-20 victory over Louisville last Saturday.
The Hurricanes are making a permanent move back to QB Malik Rosier, after freshman K’Kosi Perry completely underwhelmed last week. Perry was just 3 of 6 for 20 yards with two INT’s. Rosier would come in in the second half and throw for 170 yards and an INT.
Miami’s offense has plenty of issues, but the senior Rosier should bring back some steady calm to a unit which desperately needs it. The Hurricanes defense though remains one of the best in the country, among the leaders in almost every defensive category.
BC’s offense revolves around its running attack, which averages 226.9 YPG. Last week RB David Bailey and Ben Glines combined to run for 219 yards and two TDs. But BC struggles are on the offensive side of the ball, while the defense remains a strength of the team.
I’ll point out though that Miami is 21-15 ATS in its last 26 after giving up less than 20 points in its previous game, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series overall as well.
I think the change of QB for Miami will in fact prove to be a good move andI look for the Hurricanes superior defense to then deliver the knock out blow.
Lay the points, play on Miami.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5||Top||51-24||Loss||-110||79 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* MAC Attack is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET.
No upsets here in my opinion, as I look for the first place WMU Broncos to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night.
Toledo comes to town off a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while Western Michigan enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action.
Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Broncos after the Rockets scored the 37-10 home win in the series last season.
Toledo is averaging 39.3 PPG and it gave up 326 passing yards to Buffalo last weekend. QB Eli Peters has a 6/2 TD/INT. Note that the defense is allowing 34.3 PPG.
WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s conceding 28.4. QB Jon Wassink already has 1,980 passing yards with a strong 16/6 TD/INT.
I’ll point out as well that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win over more than 20 points, while Toledo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.
In conclusion, this year's Toledo team hardly looks bowl-bound. The Rockets have been to 11 bowls since 2001 and to SEVEN in the previous eight seasons. However, last year's 11-3 record seems as 'far away,' as Toledo lost its second straight and dropped to 3-4 (1-2 MAC) on the season. Toledo was outgained by Buffalo 463-to-295 in yards, while committing four turnovers in the 31-17 loss. Toledo has struggled on the road this season going 0-2, while allowing 77 points, and will 'limp' into this game 0-4 ATS in its last four overall (also checks in at 0-3 ATS to begin MAC play).
Meanwhile, Tim Lester's second season at Toledo is going well. He had a tough act to follow (P.J. Fleck led WMU to a 13-1 season and a New Years' Six bowl game in 2016) but 2017's 6-6 record is a thing of the past. The Broncos opened 2018 with back-to-back losses (to Syracuse and at Michigan) but enter this contest on a six-game winning streak (4-0 start in MAC play) in which the team has averaged 41.0 PPG. WMU's balanced offense (249.4 YPG passing and 220.2 YPG rushing) will allow the Broncos to win this game with "room to spare!'
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii -3.5||Top||40-22||Loss||-105||130 h 1 m||Show|
My 10* ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT on Hawaii (11:55 EST).
Nevada is 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Mountain West play. It most recently lost its second straight, most recently a 31-27 setback to Boise State.
The Wolfpack were out gained by a whopping 506-386 margin. QB Ty Gangi was just 24 of 42 for 204 yards, two TDs and an INT.
Overall Nevada is averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 33.6.
Hawaii on the other hand is 6-2, including 3-0 in Conference action. The Warriors come in off a 49-23 non-conference loss to BYU this past Saturday (I had the Cougars in that one!) WR John Ursua had 89 yards and a TD. QB Cole McDonald has 26 TDs and three INTs on the year.
Overall Hawaii is averaging 36.5 PPG and it’s conceding 32.
I think Nevada is overmatched on both sides of the ball today. The Wolfpack also come in with zero momentum and they’ve been struggling away from friendly confines as well.
The Warriors can smell the blood in the water in my opinion (note as well that Hawaii is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 48 points or more in its previous contest.)
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||20-13||Win||100||80 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF MONTH is on Stanford (9:00 EST).
Stanford comes into this one hungry and rested. The Cardinal are off their bye and they’re looking to halt a two-game slide, most recently falling to Notre Dame and Utah.
Arizona State is just 1-3 in its last four, most recently falling to Colorado.
Stanford has to be feeling more confident this week though because RB Bryce Love, who has missed the last two games with a small injury, is back and ready to go. Love already has 327 yards through four games.
With Love in the line-up, Stanford is an entirely different team and I have a hard time seeing ASU’s porous defensive front slowing him down at all.
ASU also comes in off its bye, but instead of rest leading to success, I think the opposite will be true for the Sun Devils. QB Manny Wilkins was injured in the loss to Colorado, but he’s also been given the green light today.
I’ll point out though that Arizona State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye-week and only 2-4 ATS in its last six when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Stanford is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 6-3 ATS in its last nine when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3.
The Cardinal have upcoming games against Washington and Washington State, so they can ill afford another loss.
Stanford’s recent slide is directly attributable to Love’s absence, but now that he’s back though I’m expecting a complete “180.”
Lay the points.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||128 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on USC (10:30 EST).
Colorado enters off a 28-21 home win over Arizona State, while USC got the better of Arizona 24-20 on the road as well.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Trojans have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met last year USC would post the convincing 38-24 road victory.
I think Colorado comes in complacent after it’s 5-0 start. Overall the Buffs are averaging 37.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 18.4. QB Steven Montez had 328 passing with two TDs in last week’s win over Colorado State.
USC is averaging 24.6 PPG and its conceding 26.2. QB JT Daniels had 197 passing yards last week, while RB Aca’Cedric Ware had 173 rushing yards.
After two poor performances on the defensive side of the ball to Texas and Washington State, the Trojans limited Arizona to just 98 rushing yards last week.
I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records, while USC is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival.
I like USC’s improved defensive play to carry over here and I’m finally expecting the Buffs to stumble. Lay the points.
|10-06-18||Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5||Top||14-20||Win||100||127 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST).
Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina.
Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17.
Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue.
Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory.
I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here.
I’m laying the points.
|10-06-18||Boston College +4 v. NC State||Top||23-28||Loss||-102||120 h 23 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST).
Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments.
NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017.
BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s.
NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores.
I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival.
I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points.
|10-05-18||Utah State +2.5 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||107 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST).
Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force.
BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington.
If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup.
Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already.
Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8.
BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT.
RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU.
The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well.
I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies.
|09-29-18||Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU||Top||14-17||Win||100||125 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend.
Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27).
If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road.
Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC.
The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron.
TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG.
I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road.
I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit.
I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.”
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +2.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-110||126 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Oregon (8:00 EST).
Stanford comes to the Pacific Northwest off a 30-10 home win over UC Davis, while Oregon comes in off a tougher than expected 35-22 home victory over San Jose State.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Ducks after they were smoked 49-7 by the Cardinal last year.
Stanford QB KJ Costello had two TD’s but also two INT’s last week. So far he has 729 passing yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal have looked very strong defensively so far, allowing an average of just 7.7 points over the first three games.
However, there’s no question that Stanford faces its stiffest test yet.
Oregon is also 3-0. So far the Ducks have scored an average of 52 PPG, good for eighth in the country. The defense has been the weak point, but it’s still been pretty good, allowing an average of 20 PPG over the first three.
Stanford features an elite defense, but I think that unit will be on its heels all afternoon long. The Ducks come in with a chip on their shoulder and I look for their combination of high-flying offensive firepower and above average defensive play to be just too much for satisfied Stanford to keep up to down the stretch.
Play on Oregon.
|09-22-18||Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue||Top||13-30||Loss||-110||118 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (12:00 EST).
I had a big play on Purdue last week (my 35-Club Play signature release), but this weekend I’m going against the winless Boilermakers.
Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. I have a hard time seeing the Boilermakers keeping up to the Eagles though, who have averaged 52.7 PPG in the early going. The BC defense has been sharp as well, holding the opposition to just 340.7 yards per game average.
Boston College’ QB Anthony Brown has 626 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s so far. WR Kobay White has 163 yards receiving and RB AJ Dillon has 432 rushing yards and five TD’s. Dillon had 185 yards on 33 carries against Wake Forest.
Purdue is scoring an average of 27.7 PPG. QB David Blough was 39 of 55 for 572 yards, three TD’s and an INT in last week’s tight setback.
Note though that the Boilermakers are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games against teams with a winning road record, while BC is 7-1-1 ATS in its last eight nine after a SU victory.
I love BC to kick Purdue while it’s down. Lay the points.
|09-21-18||Washington State +3.5 v. USC||Top||36-39||Win||100||106 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST).
Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday.
USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas.
The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win.
So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s.
The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s.
I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars.
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||79 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (7:30 EST).
I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the table is set for a a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in primed for a letdown after its first win of the season, a massive 35-14 upset on the road over Maryland.
Note that this is a revenge game for Tulsa after the Owls took the latest match-up 43-22 on November 25th, 2017.
Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and conceding 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards with four TD’s and three INT’s on the year.
Temple is averaging 27 PPG and it’s conceding 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s so far, while Anthony Russo has 252 yards and a TD on the season.
I’ll point out though that Tulsa is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while Temple is already 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite.
I think Temple has a classic letdown here after its big upset on the road. Well, enough of one anyways to let the Golden Hurricane to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the sizeable spread that they’ve been afforded.
Grab the points.
|09-15-18||Missouri v. Purdue +8||Top||40-37||Win||100||122 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on Purdue (7:30 EST).
Missouri comes in a tiny bit complacent after two straight victories, most recently throttling Wyoming 40-13 at home last Saturday.
Purdue though comes in desperate as it’s dropped two in a row, including a shocking 20-19 setback at home to Eastern Michigan as a 16 point favorite last weekend.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances tonight as when these teams met last year, it was Purdue that came away with the 35-3 road victory on September 16th, 2017.
Missouri is so far averaging 396 YPG, averaging 45.5 PPG. QB Drew Lock has 687 yards with eight TD’s so far this season. Overall the Tigers are allowing just 13.5 PPG early, but clearly the unit faces a stiff test today against the hungry and determined Boilermakers.
So far Purdue is averaging 23 PPG, as David Blough has 122 yards passing and 36 rushing, while co-QB Elijah Sindelz has 283 yards, two TD’s and three picks. The defense has been a bright spot though, allowing only 25.5 PPG.
This is a great situational play in my opinion. I think Missouri comes in complacent here in this non-conference matchup as it gets caught looking ahead to its conference schedule.
Purdue does not have that luxury at all though obviously and I think the intensity in which the Boilermakers play with today will turn out to be the difference. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in a much closer than expected battle.
|09-13-18||Old Dominion v. Charlotte +2||Top||25-28||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Charlotte (6:00 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end.
ODU is so far winless on the year with setback to Liberty and FIU, while Charlotte opened with a victory over Fordham, before then dropping its second game against a surging Appalachian State team.
The Monarchs have looked horrible. Last week QB Steven Williams and Blake LaRussa combined to go 13 of 19 for 237 yards and two TD’s in the first half, but then went just 6 of 18 for 66 yards the rest of the way.
Charlotte also uses two QB’s. This week we can expect to see a lot of Hasaan Klugh, who was mainly featured as a runner last weekend.
The 49ers got some great individual defensive play in the blowout setback to the Mountaineers, as safety Ben Deluca had 11 total tackles.
I’ll point out as well that Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, while ODU is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests and a dismal 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss.
The Monarchs are banged up and their offense is stuck in neutral. Meanwhile the 49ers have looked a lot better through all three phases. This one has ATS blowout written all over it. Play on Charlotte.
|09-13-18||Boston College -5.5 v. Wake Forest||Top||41-34||Win||100||76 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boston College (7:30 EST).
An important early ACC clash favors the visitors on Thursday night in my opinion.
BC enters off a 62-14 smoke-job over Holy Cross last weekend, while Wake demolished Towson 51-20. Note that this is a revenge game for the Eagles after Wake recorded a 34-10 victory at Boston College last year.
Eagles’ QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter last week and he threw four TD’s. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. So far BC has looked fantastic on both sides of the ball over its first two games.
Wake Forest has won its first two games as well. QB Sam Hartman had 242 passing yards and two TD’s last week, while the defense held Towson to just 65 rushing yards.
However note that the Demon Deacons have struggled against the pass early, as evidenced by the 345 passing yards they gave up last week.
I’ll pint out as well that Wake Forest is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards, while BC is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven conference tilts.
The Eagles have the superior pass defense, a unit which finished 22nd in the country last year. I think that’ll be the difference tonight. Lay the points, play on Boston College.
|09-08-18||Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -1||Top||21-0||Loss||-105||145 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST).
Cincinnati is 1-0 and Miami Ohio is 0-1. I look for the home side to lay everything on the line today though as it looks to get off the schneid.
The Bearcats come in off a highly satisfying 26-17 road win over UCLA as two TD underdog. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? The Bearcats had 305 yards of offense and they also conceded about 305 yards on defense. Desmon Ridder was just 13 of 24 for 100 yards.
The Redhawks were small dogs when their game kicked off against visiting Marshall in Week 1 and Miami Ohio would wind up falling 35-28. The Redhawks though had 445 yards of offense and I expect the unit to build off that performance.
QB Gus Ragland was 25 of 46 for 357 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Jack Sorenson was key in the passing game with three catches for 106 yards and a major score.
It’s difficult to win on the road and even more difficult to cover in back to back weekends away from friendly confines. The Bearcats are improved from last year’s poor team, but not that much. Look for the “hungrier” home side to find a way to get the job done.
Play on Miami Ohio.
|09-08-18||Colorado v. Nebraska -4.5||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||141 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM on Nebraska (3:30 EST).
Colorado is 1-0, while Nebraska opens up its 2018/19 campaign after its game was postponed last week. The Buffs enter off a 45-13 win over Colorado State, but note that they’ve lost four of their last five on the road.
Last week QB Steven Montez had 33 yards, four TD’s and an INT in the win over the Rams. The ground game looked strong as well with 258 yards, with Travon McMillan leading the charge with 103 yards and a TD. The defense looked sharp, but clearly the unit faces a much more difficult task in Week 2.
Nebraska’s Week 1 contest was postponed due to poor weather, so the Huskers come in with a ton of anticipation and energy. After losing four straight home games, you can bet the team will be looking to reverse their fortunes here. Nebraska features an experienced offensive line.
The defense was a weak point last season, but it returns many starters and it’s expected to take a big leap in the right direction this year.
Note as well that the Buffs have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a underdog of three points or more on the road. Nebraska’s advantage in the trenches turns out to be the difference though.
Lay the points, play on Nebraska.
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +21.5||Top||42-12||Loss||-110||124 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on SMU (8:00 EST).
I’m grabbing the points on the big hungry home dog on Friday night.
The Horned Frogs come in complacent after their 55-7 season opening win over Southern. Conversely, the Mustangs do indeed come in hungry after falling 46-23 to North Texas on the road. Note that this is a revenge game as well for SMU after it fell 56-36 on the road at TCU last year.
Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it looked pretty good against a weak Jaguars defense last week. Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s. The Horned Frogs have three strong RB’s including Darius Anderson, who had 768 rushing yards last year. Last season the Horned Frogs allowed just 19 PPG and the defense will be a strength again this year.
SMU clearly has its hands full. And recent history is not in its favor either as it comes in having lost six straight in this series.
But I’m not calling for an outright, straight-up victory here. I just think that SMU has improved enough this season to be much more competitive this time around. The Mustangs averaged 37.8 PPG last year, but they’d also concede 36.7. QB Ben Hicks had 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Last season he had 3,500 passing yards and a strong 33/12 TD/INT.
As mentioned above, the outright win is not on the table here whatsoever. I do think though that this improved SMU side can catch TCU a bit complacent this season and I look for it keep this one interesting until the third quarter.
Grab the points, play on SMU.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||Top||24-3||Win||100||35 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Virginia Tech (8:00 EST).
Virginia Tech was dominant on the defensive side of the ball last year, but it’s going to have to make adjustments with many new faces throughout the unit this season. The Hokies though return their starting QB and I think he’ll help his team keep this one competitive.
Last year Virginia Tech finished 9-4 in the regular season. Florida State was 7-6.
The Hokies return QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last season. Overall the offense averaged 28.2 PPG last season, but that mark is expected to go up with Jackson’s expected progression.
The defense allowed just 14.8 PPG and while many of the key pieces are gone from the unit that posted those numbers, note that safety Reggie Floyd is back after he finished third on the team with 72 tackles, while also posting three INT’s.
The Seminoles welcome back Deondre Francois as their QB, as he missed most of late year with injury. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Cam Akers to start, as he finished with 5.3 YPC average.
FSU allowed just 21.2 PPG last year and the defense should be a strength this year as well.
However, as mentioned off the top I think that Jackson is going to have his opportunities tonight.
I’ll point out as well that FSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, while VT is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
Bank on a much closer than expected battle and grab as many points as you can. Play on Virginia Tech.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame +2||Top||17-24||Win||100||315 h 33 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST).
Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl.
Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio.
Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG.
As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish.
|08-31-18||Syracuse -6 v. Western Michigan||Top||55-42||Win||100||291 h 41 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Syracuse (6:00 EST).
This is the first meeting ever between the teams. Syracuse will be looking for a better result early this season after going 4-8 last year. Western Michigan was 6-6.
The Orange are expected to compete for a Bowl position this season as they have eight starters back on offense and six on defense.
Syracuse QB is senior Eric Dungey, who had 2,495 yards, 14 TD’s and nine INT’s last season. The Orange had a more difficult schedule last year, so coach Dino Baber is expecting major progression in his third-year running the show. Defensively the team was a bit of a mess, but the ACC is unforgiving. However as mentioned above, the defensive unit should also be improved with six starters returning.
Overall the Orange were ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense last year and 106th in total defense.
WMU was 6-6 last year, but it wasn’t enough to get a bowl invite. The defense was horrible as well and it returns just five starters this season. The only way the unit can go is up this year, but the defensive side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak area.
The offense returns eight starters, including QB Jon Waasink, who had 1,411 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s last season. RB Javion Franklin, who had 1,200 yards rushing last year is gone though and he really did make opposing defenses “honest.”
Last year WMU was ranked 79th in the country in scoring and 55th in total yards allowed.
It’s the ACC vs. the MAC. I think Syracuse has the better and more competent QB in this matchup. The Orange were a well-oiled offensive machine last year and I believe they’ll be too much for WMU to hang with down the stretch.
Lay the points, play on Syracuse.
|08-25-18||Hawaii +14 v. Colorado State||Top||43-34||Win||100||660 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Hawaii (7:30 EST).
Two flawed teams go at it on opening day as the Rainbow Warriors try to keep things together around a new quarterback and the Rams are hoping for a completely rebuilt defense to figure things out until newcomers can gain enough experience to compete on a high level. The Hawaii QB figures to be strong-armed Cole McDonald, who at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds has the look of a solid QB, if not the resume. McDonald will resurrect the run-and-shoot offense that was abandoned last season, and he should have some opportunities against Colorado State, which gutted its defense (including the coaches) and is starting from scratch. But the tide goes both in and out in this one, as the Rainbow Warriors’ inexperience on offense (the O-Line and running game are starting over) could find it a challenge against even the Rams’ porous D. Hawaii has lost seven straight in this series, including a 30-point (51-21) drubbing last season on the island. With both programs struggling to gain traction, go with Hawaii to at least cover the 14 in a game that could be sloppy.
|01-08-18||Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia||Top||26-23||Loss||-107||158 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST).
No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide.
Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart.
The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards.
Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101.
I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s.
In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense.
But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog.
Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama.
|01-01-18||Georgia v. Oklahoma||Top||54-48||Win||100||488 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST).
The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title.
Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game.
Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s.
The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio.
Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall.
I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs.
Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.”
While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia.
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5||Top||26-19||Loss||-110||362 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST).
Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records.
Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.
As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though.
A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle.
Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be?
I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival.
Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either.
I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points.
|12-30-17||Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7||Top||34-24||Loss||-115||443 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST).
The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators.
Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game.
Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG.
That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes.
The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.”
The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia.
Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game:
“Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’
Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion.
An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes.
|12-28-17||Michigan State v. Washington State||Top||42-17||Win||100||36 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST).
Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.
Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington.
WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT.
MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome.
Play on Michigan State.
|12-27-17||Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||38-35||Win||100||37 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST).
Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign.
Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one.
Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24.
Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more.
Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one.
Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers.
|12-26-17||Utah -7 v. West Virginia||Top||30-14||Win||100||358 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST).
It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing.
Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores.
WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog.
Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity?
I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done.
Lay the points.
|12-24-17||Houston v. Fresno State +2.5||Top||27-33||Win||100||317 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST).
The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu.
The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s.
Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17.
In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s.
I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf.
Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl.
Play on Fresno State.
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||Top||42-35||Loss||-110||30 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST).
The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs.
SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play.
SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT.
Army finished 9-3.
The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker.
The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy.
I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less.
SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher.
All signs point to a rout, lay the points.
|12-21-17||Temple v. Florida International +7.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-130||35 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST).
The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale.
FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7.
The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards.
However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points,
|12-20-17||Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU||Top||51-10||Win||100||35 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST).
6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl.
The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale.
Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.”
SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two.
I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.)
I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points.
|12-19-17||Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||3-50||Loss||-110||33 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.
The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action.
Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio.
The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s.
I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores.
Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.
I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can.
|12-16-17||Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State||Top||31-28||Win||100||121 h 8 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST).
The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall.
Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis.
Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run.
The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year.
I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests.
Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game.
I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy -3.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST).
The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen.
Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action.
Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17.
The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan.
Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game.
Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries.
Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas.
Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf.
I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||127 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST).
The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory.
Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG.
That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards.
USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest.
I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points.
|11-25-17||Alabama v. Auburn +4||Top||14-26||Win||100||147 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST).
The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend.
Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14.
Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground.
The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far.
Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack.
Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points.
QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground.
Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points!
|11-24-17||Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas||Top||27-23||Win||100||107 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).
Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500.
Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games.
Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU.
I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early.
The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible.
The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today.
Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points.
|11-21-17||Miami-OH v. Ball State +18||Top||28-7||Loss||-110||47 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes.
The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense.
The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side.
Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5||Top||16-39||Win||100||76 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST).
The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th.
BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening.
The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well.
The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests.
BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|11-17-17||UNLV +2 v. New Mexico||Top||38-35||Win||100||111 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST).
UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today.
New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M.
With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week.
The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground.
The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on UNLV.
|11-16-17||Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5||Top||40-24||Win||100||84 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week.
However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small.
The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend.
Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores.
Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival.
And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range.
I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points.
|11-15-17||Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5||Top||31-35||Loss||-115||60 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST).
Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play.
Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent.
Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season.
The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week.
WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation.
Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side.
I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points.
The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game.
I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early.
Lay the points.
|11-14-17||Ohio v. Akron +13||Top||34-37||Win||100||24 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio.
Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week.
Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD.
I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records.
The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well.
Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points.
|11-11-17||NC State -3 v. Boston College||Top||17-14||Push||0||72 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST).
The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors.
I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State.
NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week.
Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion.
Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year.
NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s. WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss.
The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2.
Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th.
In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG.
I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers.
BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense.
I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points.
|11-10-17||Temple v. Cincinnati +2.5||Top||35-24||Loss||-100||107 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST).
The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here.
Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.)
Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries.
I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records.
I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati.
|11-09-17||Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5||Top||6-27||Win||100||83 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST).
The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity.
The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish.
Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend.
And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory.
Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries.
Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.)
I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers.
|11-08-17||Kent State v. Western Michigan -21.5||Top||20-48||Win||100||59 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST).
The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.
The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend.
Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground.
WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend.
Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause.
The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense.
I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss.
The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points.
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -11||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||36 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST).
The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points.
The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green.
Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one.
I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records.
The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo.
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||140 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST).
The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory.
Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season.
Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s.
So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5.
Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG.
Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air.
Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s.
Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd.
Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon.
The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points.
|11-03-17||Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -10||Top||25-30||Loss||-110||119 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST).
The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls.
Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.)
FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall.
Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings.
Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game.
The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl.
Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year.
I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.
|11-02-17||Ball State +22.5 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||14-56||Loss||-110||95 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo.
EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team.
The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground.
EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch.
I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-01-17||Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan||Top||35-28||Win||100||74 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST).
The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year.
So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well.
The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459.
Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan.
|10-31-17||Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio||Top||28-45||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST).
The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks.
Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s.
Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG.
I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points.
|10-28-17||Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5||Top||24-19||Win||100||121 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).
The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch.
Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own.
The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.)
UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools.
So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled.
But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend.
I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series.
With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend.
The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well.
It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points.
|10-26-17||Toledo v. Ball State +26||Top||58-17||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation.
The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins.
Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.)
Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries.
The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season:
“This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.”
With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today.
Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest.
I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State.
|10-21-17||SMU v. Cincinnati +8.5||Top||31-28||Win||100||118 h 15 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST).
The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side.
I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF.
SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago.
SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.”
In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s.
Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call.
Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points.
Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one.
Play on Cincinnati.
|10-20-17||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10||Top||35-31||Win||100||120 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST).
The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season.
So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them.
The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. )
WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories.
Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest.
As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points.
|10-19-17||Memphis v. Houston -3||Top||42-38||Loss||-115||98 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST).
The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa.
Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year.
Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year.
Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year.
Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day.
From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game.
I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago.
Play on Houston.
|10-14-17||Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||142 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory.
Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend.
The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s.
The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory.
QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s.
UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season.
Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company.
Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency.
Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October.
I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points.
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +16||Top||3-37||Win||100||126 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST).
The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS.
Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year.
So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s.
Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground.
I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range.
The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup.
Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself.
While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California.
|10-12-17||Texas State +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||7-24||Loss||-115||99 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST).
Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing.
Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year.
Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week.
The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette.
The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards.
UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing.
I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest.
I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State.
|10-11-17||South Alabama +16.5 v. Troy||Top||19-8||Win||100||76 h 59 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not.
I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team.
Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight.
There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th.
South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year.
USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down.
QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory.
The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air.
I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses.
These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points.
|10-07-17||California +27.5 v. Washington||Top||7-38||Loss||-110||58 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line?
Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one.
The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State.
Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year.
So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here.
Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall.
QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score.
I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.
The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end!
|10-06-17||Boise State v. BYU +7||Top||24-7||Loss||-115||125 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST).
Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.
Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday.
Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th.
The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG.
Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s.
BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4.
Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD.
I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests.
While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +3||Top||25-39||Win||100||99 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS.
Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season.
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.”
The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition.
NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score.
Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season.
Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State.
|10-04-17||Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +7||Top||43-25||Loss||-108||53 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST).
Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS.
Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year.
Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th.
The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground.
The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana.
Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing.
I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest.
I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort.
|09-28-17||Texas -4 v. Iowa State||Top||17-7||Win||100||97 h 12 m||Show|
My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST).
Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron.
And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory.
Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards.
Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks.
Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards.
The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground.
Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points.
|09-22-17||Virginia +11.5 v. Boise State||Top||42-23||Win||100||79 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday.
The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432.
So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG.
QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point.
Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56.
So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7.
Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards.
Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home.
Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points.
|09-21-17||Temple v. South Florida -20.5||Top||7-43||Win||100||73 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST).
Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.
Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend.
Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year.
Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries.
The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards.
Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards.
RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend.
The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs.
I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.
I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF.
|09-15-17||Arizona v. UTEP +21||Top||63-16||Loss||-100||125 h 37 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP.
I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah.
Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice.
Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards.
Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point.
Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week.
The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards.
UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road.
While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP.
|09-09-17||San Diego State v. Arizona State -2.5||Top||30-20||Loss||-110||149 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* SEPTEMBER SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Arizona State (11:00 EST).
SDSU enters off a 34-17 win over UC Davis, while Arizona State held on for a 37-31 victory over a tough New Mexico State side.
The Aztecs were 11-3 last year and then beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. But only 11 starters return from that dominant team. SDSU is still expected to compete in the Mountain West with its potent ground attack. Last week the Aztecs rolled up 276 yards on the grounds, led by Rashaad Penny, who had 197 yards and two TD’s last week.
SDSU turns to Christian Chapman under center, last week he was 16 of 21 for 221 yards, two TD’s and an INT.
The Aztecs defense looked solid last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test in Manny Wilkins and the high-flying Sun Devils on Saturday night.
Wilkins threw for 300 yards last week against a dangerous and experienced Aggies team.
ASU averaged 33.3 PPG last year and it has seven starters back from that unit this season. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 321 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 with two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had 123 yards on seven catches.
Arizona State’s defense looked pretty bad last year and it looked flat-footed in Week 1 as well. The secondary catches a break this week though in facing the run heavy Aztec offense.
And ultimately I feel this is what it will come down to. The Aztecs don’t have the necessary downfield personel to keep the Sun Devils honest.
I like Wilkins and company to have another big night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|09-08-17||Ohio v. Purdue -5||Top||21-44||Win||100||122 h 2 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on Purdue (8:00 EST).
Ohio comes in off a 59-0 win over Hampton, while Purdue dropped a hard-fought 35-28 battle with Louisville in its home opener. These schools haven’t met since 1998.
Bobcats’ QB Quinton Maxwell was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and one TD and one pick, while Nathan Rourke had 72 passing yards and three rushing TD’s.
The run game accumulated 248 yards with AJ Oullette leading the charge with 63 yards on 12 carries. If the run game stalls, then the Bobcats are in trouble.
Ohio looked good defensively last week, but clearly that unit faces a much stiffer test on Friday night.
The Boilermakers will look to do just that as last week they’d give the Cardinals everything they could handle. QB Elija Sindelar threw for 118 yards and two TD’s, while David Blough had 175 yards and two TD’s (also two INT’s.)
Purdue’s defense looked pretty average, but considering the opponent, it wasn’t completely horrible either.
The Boilermakers were also able to put up 28 points against the 16th ranked Cardinals and I think they’re going to be able to build off that impressive performance.
I’ll point out as well that Ohio is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Purdue is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a fav in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Bobcats’ one dimensional offense proves to be too predicable here. Play on Purude.
|09-04-17||Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +4||Top||42-41||Win||100||202 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia Tech (8:00 EST).
This one is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia.
Tennessee finished 9-4 last year and would prevail 38-24 over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl, while Georgia Tech was 9-4, winning the TaxSlayer Bowl 33-18 over Kentucky. These teams haven’t faced each other since 1987.
The Vols gave up at least 31 points six times last year. Tennessee though was ranked 24th in the country in scoring with 36.8 PPG.
The Vols don’t have Joshua Dobbs under center anymore. Coach Butch Jones has not committed to a No. 1 starter yet, so expect to see both Jarrett Guarantano and Quinten Dormady getting time. RB John Kelly is back after posting 580 yards and seven TD’s last season.
Georgia Tech ended the year winning six of its final seven after starting 3-3. Last season the Yellow Jackets would score at least 30 points in eight of their games.
Georgia Tech was decent on both sides of the ball last year, finishing 70th in scoring (28.2) and 39th in scoring defense (24.5) QB Justin Thomas is gone, meaning that Matthew Jordan will likely be named No. 1 to open the season.
The Yellow Jackets have a stable of great RB’s, which helps with their dangerous triple-option attack.
I’ll point out that Tennessee is just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral site affairs, while Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four in the same position.
Both offenses will have to go through growing pains to open the season. Georgia Tech’s offense though relies on the ground game, not the QB’s arm. The Vols have a new QB, new RB’s and new WR’s. The Yellow Jackets have the superior defense in my opinion as well.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Georgia Tech.
|09-03-17||West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF WEEK is on Virginia Tech (7:30 EST).
These border rivals get ready to play a neutral site matchup, although they haven’t played against each other since 2005. Both teams are starting new QB’s this year, with Josh Jackson at Virginia Tech and WVU turning to Florida transer Will Grier.
Grier had Florida at 6-0 in 2015 before testing positive for steroids. He’ll be joined by RB Justin Crawford, who had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year.
The offensive line is a big concern for the Mountaineers though as they try to replace LT Yodny Cajuste and All-American center Tyler Orlosky.
The defense allowed 24 points and 425.9 YPG last season. However, once again there are major concerns about the line, as WVU has to replace all three starting lineman from its 3-3-5 defense.
Jackson will be leaning heavily on WR cam Phillips for the Hokies this year, as he’d finish with 76 passes for 983 yards and five TD’s last season. Jackson will also be turning to RB Travon McMillian, who rushed for 677 yards and seven TD’s.
VT’s defense is expected to be solid out of the gates as it returns three linebackers and three of the four secondary starters. Last year the unit gave up an average of just 340.7 YPG.
I’ll point out as well that WVU is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site gams, while VT is 2-1 ATS in its last three in the same position.
Grier is a question mark in my opinion having not played competitively since 2015. The Virginia Tech defense looks much better than West Virginia’s as well.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hokies.
|09-02-17||Akron v. Penn State -32||Top||0-52||Win||100||147 h 30 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (12:00 EST).
Suffice it to say I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.
Akron finished 5-7 last year, while Penn State was 11-3. The Nittany Lions will be out to atone for a 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl though and that’s bad news for the lowly Zips obviously.
Akron dropped four straight to end the season and the defense was the major issue, as it would allow at least 38 points seven times.
In their lone matchup against a Big Ten opponent last year, the Zips were destroyed 54-10 by Wisconsin on the road.
Akron averaged 27.4 PPG and allowed 33.6. QB Thomas Woodson had 2,079 yards, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Woodson’s top two receivers are gone though.
The Nittany Lions finished 21st in the country with an average of 37.6 PPG last year. They were ranked 47th on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG.
QB Trace McSorely had 3,614 yards, 29 TDs and eight INT’s, to go along with 365 rushing yards and an additional seven TD’s on the ground.
You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who had 1,496 yards rushing and 18 TD’s.
I’ll point out that Akron is notorious for getting out to slow starts, having gone just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September.
Also note that Penn State is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home.
The Nittany Lions started 2-2 last year, so will be looking to get out to a much quicker start this time around. Look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.
|09-01-17||Washington -30.5 v. Rutgers||Top||30-14||Loss||-110||131 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Washington (8:00 EST).
When these teams met last year in Washington the Huskies won 48-13.
Washington went 11-1 last year, with its lone regular season loss coming against USC. Washington returns more than 85 percent of its offensive yards from a team which averaged 41.8 PPG and 457 YPG last season.
QB Jake Browning threw for 3,430 yards with 43 TD’s and just nine INT’s last year. Browning has most of his RB and receiving corps returning, including Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,373 yards and ten TD’s.
The Huskies were also tough on the defensive side of the ball, ranked eighth overall after allowing 17.7 PPG. Note that 27 of 35 lettermen return, including six starters from the defense.
The Scarlet Knights were horrible last year, finishing 2-10, including 0-9 in Big 10 action. In games against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, Rutgers was outscored 224-0. Last year QB Kyle Bolin led an offense which averaged 15.7 PPG.
The defense was almost as bad, ranked 126th in the nation against the run and allowing an average of 37.5 PPG overall.
The Scarlet Knights should make significant improvement over their abysmal numbers from a year ago, but the team still has more questions than answers as we head into the 2017/18 campaign.
I simply have a hard time seeing Rutgers doing anything offensively against what should be another Top 10 defense for the Hukies. Lay the points with confidence, play on Washington.
|08-31-17||New Mexico State +23.5 v. Arizona State||Top||31-37||Win||100||110 h 57 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on New Mexico State (10:30 EST).
Both teams are out for redemption after sub-par season’s a year ago.
NMSU has won just three games in each of the last two years. But the Aggies have big expectations this season, as they’re now the most experienced team in their conference, with 16 starters back.
The NMSU defense was bad, allowing 38.8 PPG last year, but it’s expected to take a major step forward this season.
The Aggies offense has improved each year under Doug Martin. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season and seven of his top eight receivers are all back.
The run game is expected to be tops in the Sun Belt as well, led by senior Larry Rose and who will be running behind the fourth best offensive line in the league.
ASU finished 5-8 last year. The offense averaged 33.3 PPG and it returns seven starters from last season. Manny Wilkins threw for 2,329 yards, 12 TD’s and nine INT’s.
The run game also looks strong with Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, but the receiving corps is thin.
The Sun Devils were also brutal on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 39.8 PPG last season. 20 of 36 lettermen return from last year so the unit is also expected to improve significantly.
I’ll point out though that NMSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Pac-12, while ASU has struggled in this position for bettors for years now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of August.
The Aggies won’t be intimidated whatsoever here and clearly the pressure is on the home side. I’m not predicting an outright epic upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than whan the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play New Mexico State.
|08-26-17||Oregon State v. Colorado State -2.5||Top||27-58||Win||100||1590 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on Colorado State.
Hopes are high at Colorado State, where the Rams have plenty of talent back from last year’s half-decent (7-6) team and should get a boost from playing their first game in their new stadium. With Alabama and powerful Colorado among the first four opponents, this is almost a must-win situation for CSU. While Oregon State no doubt will try to control the tempo of this one, the Rams hope to make it a shootout behind QB Nick Stevens, who passed for 19 TDs in less than a season in 2016. A strong effort by Stevens in the opener on national TV could result in some Heisman talk and help put CSU on the college football map. Look for Colorado State’s strong defensive front to take a toll on Oregon State’s O-line, which has been re-worked since last season. The Beavers have talent, but most of it is on the offensive side of the ball – not unusual in today’s high-scoring college game. This one has the look and feel of a field-goal game, with CSU having a slight edge at home in its new digs, which has the awkward name Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado State University in a nod to the school’s former longtime coach.
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