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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-08-18||Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia||Top||26-23||Loss||-107||158 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST).
No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide.
Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart.
The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards.
Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101.
I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s.
In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense.
But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog.
Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama.
|01-01-18||Georgia v. Oklahoma||Top||54-48||Win||100||488 h 4 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST).
The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title.
Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game.
Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s.
The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio.
Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall.
I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs.
Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.”
While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia.
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5||Top||26-19||Loss||-110||362 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST).
Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records.
Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.
As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though.
A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle.
Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be?
I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival.
Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either.
I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points.
|12-30-17||Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7||Top||34-24||Loss||-115||443 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST).
The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators.
Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game.
Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG.
That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes.
The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.”
The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia.
Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game:
“Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’
Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion.
An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes.
|12-28-17||Michigan State v. Washington State||Top||42-17||Win||100||36 h 39 m||Show|
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST).
Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.
Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington.
WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT.
MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome.
Play on Michigan State.
|12-27-17||Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||38-35||Win||100||37 h 10 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST).
Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign.
Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one.
Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24.
Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more.
Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one.
Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position.
I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers.
|12-26-17||Utah -7 v. West Virginia||Top||30-14||Win||100||358 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST).
It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing.
Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores.
WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog.
Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity?
I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done.
Lay the points.
|12-24-17||Houston v. Fresno State +2.5||Top||27-33||Win||100||317 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST).
The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu.
The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game.
Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s.
Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17.
In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s.
I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf.
Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl.
Play on Fresno State.
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||Top||42-35||Loss||-110||30 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST).
The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs.
SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play.
SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT.
Army finished 9-3.
The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker.
The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy.
I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less.
SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher.
All signs point to a rout, lay the points.
|12-21-17||Temple v. Florida International +7.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-130||35 h 58 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST).
The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale.
FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7.
The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards.
However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points,
|12-20-17||Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU||Top||51-10||Win||100||35 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST).
6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl.
The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale.
Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.”
SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two.
I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.)
I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points.
|12-19-17||Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic||Top||3-50||Loss||-110||33 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.
The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action.
Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio.
The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s.
I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores.
Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.
I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can.
|12-16-17||Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State||Top||31-28||Win||100||121 h 8 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST).
The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall.
Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis.
Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run.
The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year.
I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests.
Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game.
I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy -3.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-110||144 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST).
The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen.
Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action.
Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17.
The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan.
Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game.
Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries.
Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas.
Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf.
I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||127 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST).
The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory.
Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG.
That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards.
USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest.
I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.
Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points.
|11-25-17||Alabama v. Auburn +4||Top||14-26||Win||100||147 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST).
The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend.
Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14.
Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground.
The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far.
Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack.
Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points.
QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground.
Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today.
I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.
There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points!
|11-24-17||Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas||Top||27-23||Win||100||107 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).
Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500.
Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games.
Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU.
I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early.
The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible.
The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today.
Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins.
Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points.
|11-21-17||Miami-OH v. Ball State +18||Top||28-7||Loss||-110||47 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes.
The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense.
The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side.
Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-18-17||Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5||Top||16-39||Win||100||76 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST).
The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday.
If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th.
BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening.
The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well.
The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests.
BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points.
|11-17-17||UNLV +2 v. New Mexico||Top||38-35||Win||100||111 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST).
UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today.
New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M.
With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week.
The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground.
The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s.
I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on UNLV.
|11-16-17||Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5||Top||40-24||Win||100||84 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week.
However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small.
The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend.
Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores.
Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s.
I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival.
And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range.
I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points.
|11-15-17||Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5||Top||31-35||Loss||-115||60 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST).
Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play.
Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent.
Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season.
The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week.
WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation.
Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side.
I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points.
The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game.
I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early.
Lay the points.
|11-14-17||Ohio v. Akron +13||Top||34-37||Win||100||24 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST).
The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio.
Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week.
Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD.
I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records.
The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well.
Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points.
|11-11-17||NC State -3 v. Boston College||Top||17-14||Push||0||72 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST).
The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors.
I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State.
NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week.
Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion.
Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year.
NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s. WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss.
The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2.
Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th.
In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG.
I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers.
BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense.
I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points.
|11-10-17||Temple v. Cincinnati +2.5||Top||35-24||Loss||-100||107 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST).
The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here.
Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.)
Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries.
I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records.
I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati.
|11-09-17||Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5||Top||6-27||Win||100||83 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST).
The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity.
The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish.
Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend.
And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory.
Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries.
Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.)
I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers.
|11-08-17||Kent State v. Western Michigan -21.5||Top||20-48||Win||100||59 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST).
The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.
The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend.
Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground.
WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend.
Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause.
The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense.
I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss.
The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points.
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -11||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||36 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST).
The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points.
The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green.
Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one.
I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records.
The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo.
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||140 h 29 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST).
The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory.
Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season.
Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s.
So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5.
Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG.
Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air.
Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s.
Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd.
Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon.
The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points.
|11-03-17||Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -10||Top||25-30||Loss||-110||119 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST).
The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls.
Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.)
FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall.
Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings.
Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game.
The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl.
Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year.
I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.
|11-02-17||Ball State +22.5 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||14-56||Loss||-110||95 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo.
EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team.
The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground.
EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch.
I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.)
For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.
|11-01-17||Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan||Top||35-28||Win||100||74 h 32 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST).
The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year.
So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well.
The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459.
Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season.
I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan.
|10-31-17||Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio||Top||28-45||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST).
The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks.
Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s.
Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG.
I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points.
|10-28-17||Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5||Top||24-19||Win||100||121 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).
The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch.
Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own.
The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.)
UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools.
So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled.
But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend.
I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series.
With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend.
The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well.
It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points.
|10-26-17||Toledo v. Ball State +26||Top||58-17||Loss||-110||92 h 3 m||Show|
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation.
The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins.
Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.)
Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries.
The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season:
“This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.”
With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today.
Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest.
I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State.
|10-21-17||SMU v. Cincinnati +8.5||Top||31-28||Win||100||118 h 15 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST).
The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side.
I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF.
SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago.
SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.”
In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s.
Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call.
Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points.
Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one.
Play on Cincinnati.
|10-20-17||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10||Top||35-31||Win||100||120 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST).
The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season.
So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them.
The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. )
WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories.
Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest.
As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points.
|10-19-17||Memphis v. Houston -3||Top||42-38||Loss||-115||98 h 25 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST).
The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa.
Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year.
Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year.
Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year.
Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day.
From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game.
I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago.
Play on Houston.
|10-14-17||Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||142 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST).
While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory.
Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend.
The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s.
The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory.
QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s.
UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season.
Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company.
Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency.
Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October.
I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points.
|10-13-17||Washington State v. California +16||Top||3-37||Win||100||126 h 22 m||Show|
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST).
The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS.
Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year.
So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s.
Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground.
I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range.
The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup.
Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself.
While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California.
|10-12-17||Texas State +14 v. UL-Lafayette||Top||7-24||Loss||-115||99 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST).
Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing.
Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year.
Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week.
The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette.
The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards.
UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing.
I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest.
I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State.
|10-11-17||South Alabama +16.5 v. Troy||Top||19-8||Win||100||76 h 59 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not.
I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team.
Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight.
There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th.
South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year.
USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down.
QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory.
The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air.
I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses.
These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points.
|10-07-17||California +27.5 v. Washington||Top||7-38||Loss||-110||58 h 35 m||Show|
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line?
Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one.
The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State.
Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year.
So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here.
Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall.
QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score.
I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.
The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end!
|10-06-17||Boise State v. BYU +7||Top||24-7||Loss||-115||125 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST).
Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.
Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday.
Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th.
The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG.
Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s.
BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4.
Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD.
I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests.
While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|10-05-17||Louisville v. NC State +3||Top||25-39||Win||100||99 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST).
Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS.
Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend.
Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season.
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.”
The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition.
NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score.
Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season.
Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories.
Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State.
|10-04-17||Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +7||Top||43-25||Loss||-108||53 h 49 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST).
Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS.
Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year.
Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th.
The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground.
The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana.
Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing.
I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest.
I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort.
|09-28-17||Texas -4 v. Iowa State||Top||17-7||Win||100||97 h 12 m||Show|
My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST).
Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron.
And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory.
Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards.
Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks.
Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards.
The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground.
Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points.
|09-22-17||Virginia +11.5 v. Boise State||Top||42-23||Win||100||79 h 14 m||Show|
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST).
Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday.
The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432.
So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG.
QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point.
Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56.
So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7.
Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards.
Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home.
Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points.
|09-21-17||Temple v. South Florida -20.5||Top||7-43||Win||100||73 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST).
Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.
Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend.
Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year.
Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries.
The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards.
Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards.
RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend.
The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs.
I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.
I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF.
|09-15-17||Arizona v. UTEP +21||Top||63-16||Loss||-100||125 h 37 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP.
I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah.
Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice.
Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards.
Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point.
Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week.
The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards.
UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road.
While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP.
|09-09-17||San Diego State v. Arizona State -2.5||Top||30-20||Loss||-110||149 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* SEPTEMBER SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Arizona State (11:00 EST).
SDSU enters off a 34-17 win over UC Davis, while Arizona State held on for a 37-31 victory over a tough New Mexico State side.
The Aztecs were 11-3 last year and then beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. But only 11 starters return from that dominant team. SDSU is still expected to compete in the Mountain West with its potent ground attack. Last week the Aztecs rolled up 276 yards on the grounds, led by Rashaad Penny, who had 197 yards and two TD’s last week.
SDSU turns to Christian Chapman under center, last week he was 16 of 21 for 221 yards, two TD’s and an INT.
The Aztecs defense looked solid last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test in Manny Wilkins and the high-flying Sun Devils on Saturday night.
Wilkins threw for 300 yards last week against a dangerous and experienced Aggies team.
ASU averaged 33.3 PPG last year and it has seven starters back from that unit this season. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 321 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 with two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had 123 yards on seven catches.
Arizona State’s defense looked pretty bad last year and it looked flat-footed in Week 1 as well. The secondary catches a break this week though in facing the run heavy Aztec offense.
And ultimately I feel this is what it will come down to. The Aztecs don’t have the necessary downfield personel to keep the Sun Devils honest.
I like Wilkins and company to have another big night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|09-08-17||Ohio v. Purdue -5||Top||21-44||Win||100||122 h 2 m||Show|
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on Purdue (8:00 EST).
Ohio comes in off a 59-0 win over Hampton, while Purdue dropped a hard-fought 35-28 battle with Louisville in its home opener. These schools haven’t met since 1998.
Bobcats’ QB Quinton Maxwell was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and one TD and one pick, while Nathan Rourke had 72 passing yards and three rushing TD’s.
The run game accumulated 248 yards with AJ Oullette leading the charge with 63 yards on 12 carries. If the run game stalls, then the Bobcats are in trouble.
Ohio looked good defensively last week, but clearly that unit faces a much stiffer test on Friday night.
The Boilermakers will look to do just that as last week they’d give the Cardinals everything they could handle. QB Elija Sindelar threw for 118 yards and two TD’s, while David Blough had 175 yards and two TD’s (also two INT’s.)
Purdue’s defense looked pretty average, but considering the opponent, it wasn’t completely horrible either.
The Boilermakers were also able to put up 28 points against the 16th ranked Cardinals and I think they’re going to be able to build off that impressive performance.
I’ll point out as well that Ohio is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Purdue is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a fav in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The Bobcats’ one dimensional offense proves to be too predicable here. Play on Purude.
|09-04-17||Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +4||Top||42-41||Win||100||202 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia Tech (8:00 EST).
This one is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia.
Tennessee finished 9-4 last year and would prevail 38-24 over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl, while Georgia Tech was 9-4, winning the TaxSlayer Bowl 33-18 over Kentucky. These teams haven’t faced each other since 1987.
The Vols gave up at least 31 points six times last year. Tennessee though was ranked 24th in the country in scoring with 36.8 PPG.
The Vols don’t have Joshua Dobbs under center anymore. Coach Butch Jones has not committed to a No. 1 starter yet, so expect to see both Jarrett Guarantano and Quinten Dormady getting time. RB John Kelly is back after posting 580 yards and seven TD’s last season.
Georgia Tech ended the year winning six of its final seven after starting 3-3. Last season the Yellow Jackets would score at least 30 points in eight of their games.
Georgia Tech was decent on both sides of the ball last year, finishing 70th in scoring (28.2) and 39th in scoring defense (24.5) QB Justin Thomas is gone, meaning that Matthew Jordan will likely be named No. 1 to open the season.
The Yellow Jackets have a stable of great RB’s, which helps with their dangerous triple-option attack.
I’ll point out that Tennessee is just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral site affairs, while Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four in the same position.
Both offenses will have to go through growing pains to open the season. Georgia Tech’s offense though relies on the ground game, not the QB’s arm. The Vols have a new QB, new RB’s and new WR’s. The Yellow Jackets have the superior defense in my opinion as well.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Georgia Tech.
|09-03-17||West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||178 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF WEEK is on Virginia Tech (7:30 EST).
These border rivals get ready to play a neutral site matchup, although they haven’t played against each other since 2005. Both teams are starting new QB’s this year, with Josh Jackson at Virginia Tech and WVU turning to Florida transer Will Grier.
Grier had Florida at 6-0 in 2015 before testing positive for steroids. He’ll be joined by RB Justin Crawford, who had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year.
The offensive line is a big concern for the Mountaineers though as they try to replace LT Yodny Cajuste and All-American center Tyler Orlosky.
The defense allowed 24 points and 425.9 YPG last season. However, once again there are major concerns about the line, as WVU has to replace all three starting lineman from its 3-3-5 defense.
Jackson will be leaning heavily on WR cam Phillips for the Hokies this year, as he’d finish with 76 passes for 983 yards and five TD’s last season. Jackson will also be turning to RB Travon McMillian, who rushed for 677 yards and seven TD’s.
VT’s defense is expected to be solid out of the gates as it returns three linebackers and three of the four secondary starters. Last year the unit gave up an average of just 340.7 YPG.
I’ll point out as well that WVU is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site gams, while VT is 2-1 ATS in its last three in the same position.
Grier is a question mark in my opinion having not played competitively since 2015. The Virginia Tech defense looks much better than West Virginia’s as well.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hokies.
|09-02-17||Akron v. Penn State -32||Top||0-52||Win||100||147 h 30 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (12:00 EST).
Suffice it to say I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.
Akron finished 5-7 last year, while Penn State was 11-3. The Nittany Lions will be out to atone for a 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl though and that’s bad news for the lowly Zips obviously.
Akron dropped four straight to end the season and the defense was the major issue, as it would allow at least 38 points seven times.
In their lone matchup against a Big Ten opponent last year, the Zips were destroyed 54-10 by Wisconsin on the road.
Akron averaged 27.4 PPG and allowed 33.6. QB Thomas Woodson had 2,079 yards, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Woodson’s top two receivers are gone though.
The Nittany Lions finished 21st in the country with an average of 37.6 PPG last year. They were ranked 47th on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG.
QB Trace McSorely had 3,614 yards, 29 TDs and eight INT’s, to go along with 365 rushing yards and an additional seven TD’s on the ground.
You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who had 1,496 yards rushing and 18 TD’s.
I’ll point out that Akron is notorious for getting out to slow starts, having gone just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September.
Also note that Penn State is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home.
The Nittany Lions started 2-2 last year, so will be looking to get out to a much quicker start this time around. Look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.
|09-01-17||Washington -30.5 v. Rutgers||Top||30-14||Loss||-110||131 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on Washington (8:00 EST).
When these teams met last year in Washington the Huskies won 48-13.
Washington went 11-1 last year, with its lone regular season loss coming against USC. Washington returns more than 85 percent of its offensive yards from a team which averaged 41.8 PPG and 457 YPG last season.
QB Jake Browning threw for 3,430 yards with 43 TD’s and just nine INT’s last year. Browning has most of his RB and receiving corps returning, including Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,373 yards and ten TD’s.
The Huskies were also tough on the defensive side of the ball, ranked eighth overall after allowing 17.7 PPG. Note that 27 of 35 lettermen return, including six starters from the defense.
The Scarlet Knights were horrible last year, finishing 2-10, including 0-9 in Big 10 action. In games against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, Rutgers was outscored 224-0. Last year QB Kyle Bolin led an offense which averaged 15.7 PPG.
The defense was almost as bad, ranked 126th in the nation against the run and allowing an average of 37.5 PPG overall.
The Scarlet Knights should make significant improvement over their abysmal numbers from a year ago, but the team still has more questions than answers as we head into the 2017/18 campaign.
I simply have a hard time seeing Rutgers doing anything offensively against what should be another Top 10 defense for the Hukies. Lay the points with confidence, play on Washington.
|08-31-17||New Mexico State +23.5 v. Arizona State||Top||31-37||Win||100||110 h 57 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on New Mexico State (10:30 EST).
Both teams are out for redemption after sub-par season’s a year ago.
NMSU has won just three games in each of the last two years. But the Aggies have big expectations this season, as they’re now the most experienced team in their conference, with 16 starters back.
The NMSU defense was bad, allowing 38.8 PPG last year, but it’s expected to take a major step forward this season.
The Aggies offense has improved each year under Doug Martin. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season and seven of his top eight receivers are all back.
The run game is expected to be tops in the Sun Belt as well, led by senior Larry Rose and who will be running behind the fourth best offensive line in the league.
ASU finished 5-8 last year. The offense averaged 33.3 PPG and it returns seven starters from last season. Manny Wilkins threw for 2,329 yards, 12 TD’s and nine INT’s.
The run game also looks strong with Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, but the receiving corps is thin.
The Sun Devils were also brutal on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 39.8 PPG last season. 20 of 36 lettermen return from last year so the unit is also expected to improve significantly.
I’ll point out though that NMSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Pac-12, while ASU has struggled in this position for bettors for years now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of August.
The Aggies won’t be intimidated whatsoever here and clearly the pressure is on the home side. I’m not predicting an outright epic upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than whan the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play New Mexico State.
|08-26-17||Oregon State v. Colorado State -2.5||Top||27-58||Win||100||1590 h 40 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on Colorado State.
Hopes are high at Colorado State, where the Rams have plenty of talent back from last year’s half-decent (7-6) team and should get a boost from playing their first game in their new stadium. With Alabama and powerful Colorado among the first four opponents, this is almost a must-win situation for CSU. While Oregon State no doubt will try to control the tempo of this one, the Rams hope to make it a shootout behind QB Nick Stevens, who passed for 19 TDs in less than a season in 2016. A strong effort by Stevens in the opener on national TV could result in some Heisman talk and help put CSU on the college football map. Look for Colorado State’s strong defensive front to take a toll on Oregon State’s O-line, which has been re-worked since last season. The Beavers have talent, but most of it is on the offensive side of the ball – not unusual in today’s high-scoring college game. This one has the look and feel of a field-goal game, with CSU having a slight edge at home in its new digs, which has the awkward name Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado State University in a nod to the school’s former longtime coach.
|01-09-17||Clemson v. Alabama -6.5||Top||35-31||Loss||-107||197 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on Alabama (8:00 EST).
In all the hoopla over Alabama winning the national championship a year ago, it was not lost on the gambling community that the Crimson Tide did not cover the spread. The son of Nick Saban went in to the title game as 6-point favorites, but their 45-40 victory did nothing but cause anguish among their backers at the betting window.
Twelve month later, and here we are again. Alabama vs. Clemson II, and the betting line is just about the same. Just about every betting outlet in the world has the Tide favored by 6, 6.5 or 7 points.
Will the outcome be any different this time around?
Yes and no.
Alabama will win again, but this time will cover the spread.
Clemson appears to be the chic pick in the media. The Tigers earned lots of street cred after their 31-0 drawing and quartering of Ohio State in the semifinals. Clemson intercepted two passes in that game, which immediately caused everyone to start wondering what the Tigers could do to Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Hurts, who came out of nowhere and was the Southern Conference Offensive Player of the Year when he threw 34 touchdown passes, was not exactly Peyton Manning 2.0 in the Tide’s 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington – 7 of 14, no TDs, only 57 yards passing.
But not much bothers Hurts ("I rarely get frustrated," he said after the Washington game. "I just take it as it comes and play ball."), so even the absence of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (who will miss the game as he gets a head start on his new job as head coach at Florida Atlantic) shouldn’t be much of an impediment.
Alabama scored plenty of points this season (the Tide averaged nearly 40 a game in going 14-0 SU), but they figure to win their 5th national title in eight seasons by riding their lightning-fast defense past Clemson.
Alabama’s athletic defense led the nation in defensive touchdowns, it led the nation in rushing defense and it led the nation in total defense. Consider this: In the best football conference in the country, the Tide scored more points than any other team and gave up fewer points than any other team – both by wide margins.
If any team can beat No. 1 Alabama, it’s No. 2 Clemson. But the Crimson Tide are not just any team. And they figure to both win this game, and cover the spread.
|01-02-17||Auburn v. Oklahoma -4||Top||19-35||Win||100||606 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* January Bowl LEGEND is on Oklahoma (8:30 EST).
Two losses in their first three games basically ended the Sooners’ chances at a return berth in the playoffs, but to their credit they never stopped playing hard, and their reward was nine straight victories, the school’s 10th Big 12 Conference championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. And Oklahoma comes roaring into the final game of the season, with a powerful offense that scored 34 or more points in every conference game. There is no reason to believe that the Sooners, who ended the season ranked 7th nationally, will pull up lame against Auburn. Oddsmakers made the Sooners 3.5-point favorites, and bettors feasted on that number, driving it up a full two points to the 5.5 where it now sits. The Sooners like to establish the run behind battering backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, opening things up for more-than-capable QB Baker Mayfield. The defense has had some issues, but the O should once again be more than strong enough to compensate for whatever Auburn is able to put up on the scoreboard. The Tigers – who also started 1-2 and had trouble moving the ball against quality opponents – might not be able to hang in this one.
|01-02-17||Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -7||Top||16-24||Win||100||602 h 15 m||Show|
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Wisconsin (1:00 EST).
What a season it could have been for the Badgers, who will take a 10-3 record into the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2 but could have easily gone undefeated. There were 7-point losses to Michigan and Penn State, and a 3-point overtime loss to Ohio State. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Still, a date vs. Western Michigan in Arlington, Texas is not all that bad. The Badgers are making post-season play a regular thing, and they hope to make it three bowl wins in succession. Defense is Wisconsin’s calling card as the Badgers gave up only 15 points per game this season. Good thing, too, because the offense has had its share of problems behind redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook (8 TD passes, 7 interceptions). Wisconsin gets it done with a solid offensive line blocking for workhorse back Corey Clement (1,304 yards and 14 TDs). Western Michigan was 13-0 during the regular season and had early victories over Big Ten entries Northwestern and Illinois, but is punching up in class. Bettors know this, and an opening line of 6.5 was quickly bet up to 7.5. If the Badgers pay attention they should be able to fly back to Madison with another bowl win.
|12-31-16||Ohio State -3 v. Clemson||Top||0-31||Loss||-120||561 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Ohio State (7:00 EST).
Thirty-six years after Woody Hayes famously laid out a Clemson player before calling it quits as Buckeye coach, the teams are at it again in the post-season, and the winner of what is shaping up as possibly the most exciting game of the season will get a chance to play for the national title. Video of the Hayes’s sucker punch will no doubt be shown during the Fiesta Bowl broadcast, but the real fun will be on the field. Both teams have great offense and great defenses, both teams have good coaches, and both teams have excellent football pedigrees. The difference in this one could very well be OSU QB J.T. Barrett. Barrett was the best quarterback in the Big Ten this past season, and Clemson will have to figure out a way to limit his running ability. In fact, Barrett may wind up with 25 or more carries. That should open up the passing game, where the Buckeyes are looking for wideout Noah Brown to have a big game. The line on this one opened with Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, but has moved up a tick to 3.5. Look for a tight game, with in-game adjustments by OSU coach Urban Meyer giving the Buckeyes an edge.
|12-30-16||Florida State +7 v. Michigan||Top||33-32||Win||100||534 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* December Bowl LEGEND is Florida State (8:00 EST).
The Seminoles had their sights set on a spot in the four-team championship playoffs this season, but that that went down the toilet in late October when FSU faded in the late going and lost to Clemson at home, 37-34. But the Orange Bowl is not a bad consolation prize, especially when you get to spend a week on South Beach getting ready for it. It’s hard to say what momentum means when a game is played more than a month after the conclusion of the regular season, but Florida State does come in with four wins in a row, and the Seminoles did win their final three by an average score of 40-11. So there’s that. More importantly, FSU is stacked with quality players, including four unanimous All-ACC studs – running back Dalvin Cook, offensive tackle Rod Johnson, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Tavarus McFaddden. Florida State is also catching Michigan at a good time – after a difficult season in which an emotional overtime loss to Ohio State cost the Wolverines their own shot at a berth in the Final Four. FSU is in prime position to win outright, even though they go in as 7-point underdogs.
|12-30-16||North Carolina +3 v. Stanford||Top||23-25||Win||100||29 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* Sun Bowl PERFECT STORM is on UNC (2:00 EST).
The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal get ready to battle the 8-4 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sun Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC.
Stanford closed the season with five straight wins, riding the strong play of RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey though won’t be playing in this bowl game, instead deciding to take his talents to the NFL. UNC is weak against the run, but now clearly catches a massive break in not having to face the dynamic Cardinal RB.
Tar Heels’ QB Mitch Trubisky has thrown for over 3,500 yards this year and is considered by many to be a Top ten pick. And he has plenty of weapons to throw to, including senior WR Ryan Switzer, who leads the team with 91 receptions and over 1,000 yards to go along with five major scores. Note that Trubisky has thrown 28 TD’s against just four INT’s this season.
I’ll point out that UNC is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is 0-2 ATS in its last two against teams with winning records.
If McCaffrey were playing, I’d probably be leaning towards Stanford in this one, but his absence is huge and will prove to be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome in my opinion. UNC can score with the best of them and I look for it to find a way to get the job done. Play on the Tar Heels.
|12-29-16||Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado||Top||38-8||Win||100||30 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Oklahoma State (9:00 EST).
The 10-3 Colorado Buffaloes get ready to battle the 9-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cowboys.
The Buffs lost 41-10 to Washington in the PAC 12 Championship game, while Oklahoma State fell 38-20 to Oklahoma in BIG 12 Championship game.
Colorado QB Sefo Liufau had a solid overall season, finishing with 2,171 yards and an 11:6 TD to INT ratio, while also rushing for seven major scores as well. Liufau looked poor in the loss to the Huskies though with zero TD’s and three INT’s.
The Buffaloes average 32.8 PPG and concede 20.5.
Oklahoma State is led by QB Mason Rudolph, who finished with 3,777 yards and a 25:4 TD to INT ratio. Keep your eyes on Cowboys’ WR James Washington as well, he finished with 1,209 receiving yards.
Overall Oklahoma State concedes 28.1 PPG, while averaging 38.7, ranked 19th overall in the country.
It’s interesting to note that Colorado is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while OK State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss.
Ultimately I feel that the Cowboys’ ninth ranked passing game will be just too much for Colorado to keep up with. The Buffs struggled against a similar high-powered offense in the Huskies and things aren’t going to get any easier for the secondary in facing Rudolph and company.
Grab the points.
|12-27-16||Baylor +8.5 v. Boise State||Top||31-12||Win||100||38 h 38 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Baylor (10:15 EST).
The 10-2 Boise State Broncos get ready to battle the 6-6 Baylor Bears in the Cactus Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.
Boise State lost to Wyoming and Air Force and was just nine points away from playing in the Cotton Bowl. Suffice it to say, I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Broncos, who I think will come in a bit disinterested in this “lesser” Bowl game.
Baylor won its first six games, but then would drop its final six of the season. Says interim coach Jim Grobe: “I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game,” he said. “This is going to be it for me, so I’d like to win it for sure.”
Shock Linwood isn’t playing for the Bears, but note that Baylor has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 3-1 ATS in its last four games played in the month of December, while Boise State has stumbled in this position, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest and note that it’s just 3-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite this season.
I think the Bears keep this one close for Grobe until the final moments. Grab as many points as you can, play on Baylor.
|12-26-16||Miami (OH) +14.5 v. Mississippi State||Top||16-17||Win||100||49 h 0 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Ohio (11:00 AM EST).
The 6-6 Miami Ohio RedHawks are battling the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Monday morning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the RedHawks.
Miami Ohio started the year 0-6, but then won its final six games, beating Ball State 21-20 at home on November 22nd to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I think the RedHawks incredible momentum gets carried over into this one.
Mississippi State would snap a two-game slide by hammering Ole Miss 55-20 in the Egg Bowl on November 26th.
The RedHawks would finish 73rd in the nation in passing offense with 227.9 YPG and 1`1th in scoring offense with 23.4 PPG. Miami Ohio is stout defensively though in conceding just 24.3 PPG, ranked 41st in the country. QB Gus Ragland played half the season and finishd 93 of 149 for 1,274 yards, with 15 TD’s and no INT’s.
The Bulldogs would finish 52nd in scoring offense with an average of 31.5 PPG, but 97th in scoring defense, allowing 33.1 PPG. QB Nick Fitzgerald finished 172 of 334 for 2,281 yards, 21 TD’s and ten INT’s.
I’ll point out though that the RedHawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight after posing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bulldogs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory.
While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that coach Chuck Martin and his staff can keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on Miami Ohio.
|12-23-16||Louisiana Tech -6.5 v. Navy||Top||48-45||Loss||-120||30 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* Armed Forces Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Louisiana Tech (4:30 EST).
The 8-5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are playing against the 9-4 Navy Midshipmen in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
Louisiana Tech will be especially motivated in this one I think after dropping its last two, most recently falling 58-44 to WKU in the Conference USA title game.
The Midshipmen can empathize, they also come in having lost two straight, most recently to Temple in the AAC Championship game. Navy lost its starting QB in the final regular season game and then its starting RB suffered an injury in the Championship game.
Suffice it to say, I think the Bulldogs take advantage.
The Midshipmen are ranked 22nd in the country in scoring with 37.5 PPG, but as just mentioned, that offense has recently taken a major hit.
Louisiana Tech puts up 44 points and concedes 32.7. QB Ryan Higgins has 4,208 passing yards and a 37:8 TD/INT ratio.
And that doesn’t bode well for a medicore Navy defense which allows 30.4 PPG.
I’ll also point out that Louisiana Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 40 points in its previous contest, while Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records.
If Navy had its starting QB under center, I’d likely think differently about this one. However, that’s not the case. The Bulldogs’ high-flying offense is going to prove to be too much for the Midshipmen to keep up to down the stretch in my opinion. Lay the points.
|12-23-16||Eastern Michigan +4 v. Old Dominion||Top||20-24||Push||0||27 h 42 m||Show|
My 10* Bahamas Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Eastern Michigan (1:00 EST).
The 7-5 Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing the 9-3 Old Dominion Monarchs on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Eagles.
EMU finished fourth in the MAC West, while ODU finished 7-1 in conference play.
The Eagles are playing in their first bowl game since 1987. QB Brogan Roback had 2,394 passing yards and a 16:6 TD/INT ratio after missing the first three games of the year.
EMU posted an average of 30.4 PPG, ranked 58th overall, while conceding 30.3 PPG, ranked 80th.
The Monarchs are playing their first-ever bowl game. QB David Washington had 2,648 yards and a 28:4 TD/INT ratio. ODU would go on to finish 27th in the nation in scoring with an average of 36 PPG, while conceding 27.8 PPG, ranked 64th.
I’ll point out though that EMU is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 3-1 ATS in non-conference games, while ODU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests.
With the extra time off to prepare, I think that Roback and company can take this one down to the wire. Play on Eastern Michigan.
|12-22-16||Colorado State -15 v. Idaho||Top||50-61||Loss||-105||25 h 56 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado State.
The 7-5 Colorado State Rams battle the 8-4 Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Rams.
Colorado State won four of its last five games, while Idaho won its final four in the regular season.
The Rams looked impressive in their final game, smashing SDSU 63-31. QB Nick Stevens posted a season-high four TD’s in the victory. CSU also features a strong run game, led by Izzy Matthews and Dalyn Dawkins. The Rams would finish the season averaging 34.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the country. The defense was not the strength of the team, but it was decent, conceding just 27.8 PPG in the end.
The Vandals will likely be playing their final bowl game in quite some time as the team will drop from FBS to FCS next year. QB Matt Linehan had over 2,800 yards passing, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s. Like the Rams, Idaho features a strong running tandem in Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders.
The Vandals though posted just 28.2 PPG, which placed them 68th overall.
Their defense was a strong point, allowing 29.8 PPG, ranked 77th.
I’ll point out though that Colorado State is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games, while Idaho is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 against teams with winning records.
I think the Rams are going to be able to contain this rather vanilla Vandals’ offense, while at the same time, I expect Colorado State’s superior offensive unit to prove to be too much for Idaho to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.
|12-21-16||BYU v. Wyoming +10.5||Top||24-21||Win||100||36 h 45 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Wyoming (9:00 EST).
The 8-5 Wyoming Cowboys get ready to battle the 8-4 BYU Cougars in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Wyoming.
BYU won its final four games, while Wyoming lost to SDSU in the Mountain West Championship game.
It was “oh so close” for the Cowboys against the Aztecs, but in the end they’d fall 27-24. QB Josh Allen threw an uncharacteristic two INT’s in the setback. He also had three TD’s. RB Brian Hill had 1,213 yards on the season, ranking him fourth in the country.
Note that Wyoming averages 37.1 PPG, which ranks 24th overall. The defense has been the weak point, conceding 34.8 PPG.
But that defense catches a break in facing a BYU team which will be without the services of starting QB Taysom Hill, who suffered a season-ending injury in the final game of the campaign. That means that Tanner Mangum will get the call. Mangum is a competent replacement, finishing with 3,377 yards, 23 TD’s and ten INT’s last year.
That said though, clearly he’s been thrust into the spotlight tonight and I think he’s going to stumble on the national stage. And note, BYU wasn’t fantastic offensively anyways, averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 62nd. The defense was the strong point, ranked 15th in conceding an average of 19.4 PPG.
I’ll point out though that Wyoming is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while BYU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests.
The Cowboys feature a dynamic offense, one which I think the Cougars will have a hard time matching pace against. Losing Hill is significant and a factor which I think the books haven’t properly taken into account. Grab as many points as you can, play on Wyoming.
|12-20-16||Memphis v. Western Kentucky -6.5||Top||31-51||Win||100||32 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* Boca Raton Bowl Blowout Special is on Western Kentucky (7:00 EST).
The 8-4 Memphis Tigers are battling the 10-3 WKU Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Western Kentucky.
WKU is coming off its second straight Conference USA championship after topping Louisiana Tech 58-44 in the title game.
Memphis won three of its final four, including a 48-44 upset over Houston in its regular season finale.
Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson threw for 3,326 yards this year and leads an offense which averaged 39.5 PPG. Memphis would also go on to allow just 27 PPG.
The Hilltopers defense ranks No. 29 nationally in opponent yards per play (5.12). They also rank 39th nationally in total points per game at just 24.1. QB Mike White is the focal point of an offense that averages 517.4 yards per game and 45.1 points per contest (that’s second overall in the country).
WKU has held three of its last five opponents to under ten points and recorded five sacks against Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship game.
I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while WKU is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU victory.
Ultimately I think that WKU is more tested, it’s non-conference schedule was tough, featuring games against the likes of Alabama and Vanderbilt. I have a hard time seeing Memphis keeping pace and look for the Hilltoppers to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.
|12-19-16||Central Michigan v. Tulsa -12.5||Top||10-55||Win||100||29 h 47 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (2:30 EST).
Central Michigan and Tulsa get ready to battle in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Hurricane.
The Chippewas are going to struggle to keep pace with Tulsa in my opinion, CMU enters this one averaging 27 PPG. The Golden Hurricane on the other hand average 41 PPG.
It’s interesting to note that Tulsa has scored more than 31 points in every game this year, except a three-point performance in a blowout loss to Ohio State.
Central Michigan has a decent defense, but I think it will have a hell of a time trying to slow down Tulsa RB’s D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders, both who rushed for over 1,300 yards this year while combining for 24 TD’s.
As Cooper Rush goes, so go the Chips. Central Michigan would back its way into the bowl season, going 5-2 to open the year, but then losing four of its final five. Over those last five games the Chips managed 17, 24, 17, 27 and 21 points.
In his final regular seaosn game, Rush had just 256 yards with no TD’s and an INT. Rush would close the season with 13 INT’s total.
Tulsa was 9-3 and ended the season with two straight wins. QB Dane Evans had over 3,000 yards and 27 TD’s. But as mentioned above, the run game is even better, with Flanders leading the way with 1,529 yards and 17 TD’s.
Note that the Golden Hurricane rank sixth in the country in yards per game at 523.2 YPG.
I’ll also point out that CMU is 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Tulsa is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS loss.
This is a big mismatch and I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.
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