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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-09-18||Purdue v. Texas +1.5||Top||68-72||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* Game Of The Week is on Texas (6:00 EST).
Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.
Texas comes in as the “hungrier” team here after three straight losses. After a 5-0 start, the Longhorns come in desperate and focused. Purdue comes in off an upset win over Maryland on Thursday, breaking a two-game slide.
The Boilermakers are averaging only 64 PPG over their last three games. Carsen Edwards had 20 points in the most recent victory.
Texas has quality wins this year (92-89 victory over UNC on Nov. 22nd), but it’s since fallen on hard times. The talent is there though to turn things around, as Jericho Sims is a force to be reckoned with on most nights, scoring 14 in the most recent setback to VCU.
Purdue though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.
Conversely, the Longhorns have responded well in this spot by going 6-1 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Texas.
|12-09-18||Arizona +1.5 v. Alabama||73-76||Loss||-115||6 h 48 m||Show|
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on Arizona (1:00 EST).
Arizona enters off an 80-69 win over Utah Valley, while Alabama enters off a deflating 83-80 loss to Georgia State.
If recent history is any precedence then the visitors have to be liking their chances today, as they’d post the 88-82 home win in this matchup last year.
The Wildcats have won three straight. Overall they’re averaging 78.8 PPG and conceding just 67.6. Brandon Randolph is averaging 17.1 PPG.
Alabama is averaging 75.8 PPG and it’s allowing 71.9. Dazon Ingram was a bright spot in the most recent upset loss with 17 points on five of six shooting.
I’ll point out though that the Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home and only 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while Arizona is interestingly 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona.
|12-08-18||Notre Dame v. UCLA -6||Top||62-65||Loss||-115||15 h 17 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on UCLA (10:30 EST).
The Irish’s four game win streak was snapped in an 85-80 loss to Oklahoma last time out and I think ND will suffer a predictable letdown here as well in this difficult road venue.
UCLA on the other hand avoided any “traps” heading into this one with back-to-back convincing victories over Hawaii and Loyola Marymount.
The Irish were completely dominated by the Sooners on both ends of the court in their latest setback. They’d go on to shoot just 28.0 percent from range. TJ Gibbs was a bright spot in defeat with 18 points, three assists and three boards.
UCLA was led by 17 points from both Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands in the Bruins most recent win.
UCLA has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference home games following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Notre Dame has struggled, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.
|12-08-18||Michigan State -3 v. Florida||63-59||Win||100||6 h 56 m||Show|
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Michigan State (12:00 EST).
MSU posted a 90-68 home win over Iowa in its latest action, while Florida beat WVU 66-56.
Michigan State is averaging 87.2 PPG and it’s conceding 68.7. After a loss to Louisville the Spartans have won two straight. In the latest victory Nick Ward had 26 points and went 10 from 10 from the floor.
Florida is averaging only 71 PPG and it’s allowing 61.6. KeVaughn Allen had 19 points in the win over the Mountaineers.
Note though that the Gators are only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while Michigan State is 4-0 ATS In its last four vs. teams with a win percentage above .600 and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.
I have a hard time seeing the Gators’ offense matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points.
|12-05-18||Utah State v. BYU -1.5||80-95||Win||100||13 h 43 m||Show|
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on BYU (9:00 EST).
BYU comes in as the “hungrier” team after a three-game losing streak. Utah State on the other hand is primed for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after back-to-back victories.
The Aggies currently rank among the nation’s best in scoring and rebounding, but strength of schedule has to be taken into account in my opinion. In their 89-65 blowout win over UC Irvine last Saturday, Quinn Taylor had 21 points, six boards and one assist.
The Cougars have lost three straight after winning five straight. Most recently BYU lost 113-103 to Weber State. Yoeli Childs had 31 points, seven boards and three assists.
I’ll point out as well that Utah State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while BYU is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
For all the reasons listed above, play on BYU.
|12-05-18||Nebraska v. Minnesota +3||78-85||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
My 8* Showdown is on Minnesota (9:00 EST).
Minnesota comes in as the “hungrier” team after losing two of its last three. The competition has been stiff though, most recently to Ohio State and Boston College.
The Cornhuskers come in complacent here in my opinion after three straight wins over Illinois, Clemson and Western Illinois.
Nebraska comes in off a satisfying 75-60 win over Illinois. Guard James Palmer Jr. had 23 points.
Minnesota had a difficult time moving the ball vs. the No. 17 ranked scoring defense in Ohio State. But the Golden Gophers come in hungry and focused and I think they make the most of the home court advantage.
I’ll point out as well that Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 after covering two of its last thee vs. the spread. while Minnesota is already a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|12-05-18||Ohio State v. Illinois +5.5||Top||77-67||Loss||-105||10 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* Underdog Shocker is on Illinois (7:00 EST).
Ohio State enters off a satisfying 79-59 home win over Minnesota and I think it’ll get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Illinois is hungry here, off a 75-60 loss to Nebraska in its Big Ten opener. The Illini play with revenge here as well (not surprisingly), after Ohio State posted the 75-67 home win last season.
The Buckeyes are 7-1 and averaging 78.4 PPG, while conceding 60.1. Kaleb Wesson was a standout in the latest victory with 15 points.
The Illini are averaging 77.4 PPG and they’re allow 77.1. Illinoishas faced a stiff opening schedule though and I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered. Trent Frazier leads the nightly charge and he’ll be eager to return to form after posting a combined 15 points over the last two games.
I’ll printout though that Ohio State has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 off a home win of ten points or more. Illinois on the other hand is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a loss by ten points or more.
I’m grabbing the points.
|12-04-18||West Virginia v. Florida -1.5||56-66||Win||100||14 h 46 m||Show|
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on Florida (9:30 EST).
WVU comes in contented after four straight wins.
The Gators lost 61-54 to Butler, but then bounced back to beat North Florida 98-66. This is Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden and i think the defensive minded Gators have the upper hand.
Overall Florida averages 71.7 PPG and it concedes 62.4.
West Virginia has indeed won four in a row, but against pretty middling competition (St. Joes, Valparasio, Rider and Youngstown State.) Overall the Mountainteers are averaging 86.4 PPG and conceding 75.9.
I’ll point out though that WVU just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 following an ATS win, while Florida is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral site games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing.
For all the reasons listed above, play on the Gators.
|12-04-18||Georgia State v. Alabama -7.5||Top||83-80||Loss||-105||12 h 16 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Alabama (8:00 EST).
Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.
Alabama comes in off an upset loss to UCF and I believe it’ll take its frustrations out on Georgia State.
The Panthers enter off a blowout loss to Liberty. But a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track, as their only two losses have come on the road this year.
D’Marcus Simonds had 22 points, five assists and three boards in Georgia State’s loss to the Flames. Leading scorer Damon Wilson though was held to just four points.
The Tide have had a week off since their upset loss to the Golden Knights. It was a bad shooting night for the Tide, going 37.9 percent from the floor and 20.8 percent from range. Kira Lewis Jr. was a stand out in the defeat with 14 points, two boards and two assists.
I’ll point out though that Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Georgia State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points and just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. teams with winning home records.
The Panthers lack the size and depth to compete with this rested and focused Alabama side. But outside of Simonds, the visitors lack scoring punch and I have a hard time seeing the under-manned visitors keeping pace down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|12-01-18||Wake Forest +1 v. Richmond||74-84||Loss||-105||8 h 56 m||Show|
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on Wake Forest (7:30 EST).
Wake Forest enters off a 71-64 home win over Western Carolina and I think the Demon Deacons carry that momentum over here.
Richmond comes in off a 90-82 road loss to Georgetown and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well.
Wake Forest averages 76 PPG and it concedes 74.3. Brandon Childress leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points and 4.7 assists per night, while Jaylen Hoard adds 16.8 points and 8.7 boards.
Richmond averages 72 PPG and it allows 75. Grant Golden leads the way with 20.3 points and 6.9 boards per game.
I’ll point out though that Richmond has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors, going just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, while Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less.
The Spiders are dealing with significant injuries and I believe this continues to hurt them here as well. Play on Wake Forest.
|12-01-18||Nevada v. USC +5.5||Top||73-61||Loss||-105||10 h 37 m||Show|
My 10* Unranked Shocker is on USC (4:30 EST).
While an outright upset is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.
Nevada comes in unbeaten after getting the better of Loyola-Chicago 79-65, while USC enters off a 75-65 home win over LBSU on Wednesday.
Nevada is averaging 90.1 PPG and it’s conceding 69. Caleb Martin leads the nightly charge with 21 points and 4.7 boards per game, while Jordan Carolina adds 17.7 points and 9.9 boards.
The Trojans won’t be going down without a fight today. They come in on top form having won three straight. USC averages 83.3 PPG and it concedes 71.6. Bennie Boatwright leads the team with 16.8 points and 6.4 boards per game.
I’ll point out as well that Nevada is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after covering five of six of its last seven ATS, while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four at home and 18-8 ATS in its last 26 after having won three of its last four games SU.
For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.
|11-28-18||San Diego +6 v. Ole Miss||86-93||Loss||-109||13 h 6 m||Show|
The second pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on San Diego (8*) 7:30 EST.
San Diego enters off a 76-58 home win over Jackson State, while Ole Miss was smashed 71-57 to Cincinnati in the title game of the Emerald Coast Classic.
The Toreros come in under the radar here in my opinion after three straight wins. San Diego averages 77.2 PPG and it concedes only 59.7. Isaiah Piniero leads the way with 22 points and 8.7 boards per game.
Ole iss is averaging 75.2 PPG and it’s conceding 68.6. Breein Tyree leads the nightly charge with 16.6 PPG.
I’ll point out though that the Rebels are a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last ten following an ATS loss, while the Toreros are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference contests.
I think San Diego has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.
|11-28-18||Syracuse v. Ohio State -5.5||Top||72-62||Loss||-105||13 h 51 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (10*) 7:15 EST.
Syracuse enters off a 77-56 win at home over Colgate, while Ohio State demolished Cleveland State 89-62 at home in its latest action.
The Orange have plenty of talent, but I have a hard time seeing the visitors matching pace down the stretch.
Syracuse averages 73.6 PPG and it concedes 64.6. Tyus Battle leads the nightly charge with 17.6 PPG.
Ohio Sate averages 81.3 PPG and it concedes only 58.3. That’s tied for 15th in the country. Kaleb Wesson leads the way with 14.7 points and 5.8 boards per game.
I’ll point out that Syracuse has struggled mightily in this spot as well for bettors for quite some time, going 0-9 ATS in its last nine following a SU win of more than 20 points.
The Buckeyes depth on both ends of the floor is the difference maker here.
Lay the points.
|11-28-18||Bradley -4 v. IUPU-Indianapolis||73-85||Loss||-102||13 h 37 m||Show|
The pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Bradley (8*) 7:00 EST.
Bradley beat IUPUI last year and I think it’ll get the job done this season as well.
The Braves are 6-1, including wins over SMU and Penn State in Mexico to win the Cancun Classic. After that they won two straight, including an 86-70 victory over Chicago State on Saturday. Darrell Brown had 16 points in the one, while Elijah Childs added 12 points and 11 boards.
Bradley has been sharp defensively as well, holding opponents to just 62.7 PPG on 38.5 percent shooting.
IUPUI is 4-2 and its off to its best start in nine years. The Jaguars have won two straight, most recently an 80-69 victory over Grambling on Saturday. Ahmed Ismail had 16 points and ten boards.
I’ll point out though that IUPUI is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Bradley is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as s road fav between 0.5 and 6.5 points.
This is a bad matchup for IUPUI. Look for Bradley to pull away down the stretch.
|11-27-18||Temple v. Missouri -3||Top||79-77||Loss||-105||13 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Missouri (9:00 EST).
Temple comes in off a 76-59 win over Cal and I think it stumbles in this difficult non-conference road venue.
The Tigers on the other hand come in as the “hungrier” team after they fell 82-67 to K-State.
Temple averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 65.7. Quinton Rose had 32 points in the win over the Golden Bears.
Missouri is averaging 63.6 PPG, but it’s allowing just 65.6. The Tigers numbers are skewed though in my opinion to open the season, due to the level of the competition.
I’ll point out as well that Temple is a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 60 points or less, while Missouri is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 80 points or more.
I think the hungrier team prevails and I believe the Owls finally have a letdown here. Lay the points.
|11-27-18||NC State +8 v. Wisconsin||75-79||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
My 8* Underdog Shocker is on NC State (9:00 EST).
NC State enters off a 78-74 home win over Mercer, while the Badgers enter off a poor 53-46 loss to Virginia. These teams haven’t played each other since 2010 and in my opinion, I believe their a little more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers would like us to think.
NC State can score, and it’s the reason why I like the Wolfpack here. NC State averages 90.8 PPG, and it allows only 57.8. Torin Dorn had 19 points and nine boards in the latest win.
Off their first loss of the year, I think the Badgers are susceptible for another letdown here as well, Wisconsin averages 74 PPG and it concedes 57.8.
Additionally note that NC State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.
NC State has nothing to lose here except its perfect record (6-0.) The Wolfpack may not win this one outright, but they have the defense and offense to keep it competitive. I’m grabbing the points.
|11-25-18||Miami-FL v. Seton Hall +6||81-83||Win||100||11 h 16 m||Show|
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on Seton Hall (10:30 EST).
Miami is 5-0 to open the year, while Seton Hall is 3-2. Both teams have won two games in the Wooden Legacy tournament to advance to the championship match-up tonight and I’m expecting an all out war until the final buzzer from these two hungry sides.
Miami held on for a tight 78-76 win over Fresno State to advance, while Seton Hall got the better of Hawaii 64-54.
The Hurricanes come into this one averaging 84 PPG and conceding 63. Chris Lykes leads the nightly charge with 19.6 points and 3.6 assists per game.
The Pirates average 71.2 PPG and they allowing 64.8. Myles Powell less the way with 25.8 PPG and I think he’ll prove a tough matchup for Miami.
Miami has a great and experienced starting five, but the Hurricanes are very thin after that. The team has been playing at such a high level for a long time now and it comes in off a last second victory. In my opinion, there’s no question this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for these tired Hurricanes.
Seton Hall has more depth and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab the points!
|11-25-18||Oklahoma State v. LSU -4||Top||90-77||Loss||-105||5 h 54 m||Show|
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on LSU (4:00 EST).
These teams are playing for third place in the AdvoCare Invitationals. Oklahoma State enters off a humbling 77-58 loss to Villanova and I believe the Cowboys will stumble again here as well.
LSU enters off a tight 79-76 loss in OT to No. 14 Florida State on Friday and I believe the Tigers come in hungry and focused off that near epic upset.
The Cowboys enter averaging 71.4 points and conceding 65. Cameron McGriff leads the nightly charge with 15 points and eight boards per game.
LSU is averaging 82.2 PPG and it’s allowing 71.8. Naz Reid is averaging 13.2 points and 4.2 boars per game.
I’ll point out though that LSU is 5-1 ATSin its last six following a SU loss, while Oklahoma State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after failing to score 60 points in its previous outing.
Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-23-18||Tennessee +3.5 v. Kansas||Top||81-87||Loss||-109||15 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* Showdown is on Tennessee (9:30 EST).
No. 5 Tennessee is led by Grant Williams, who is averaging 22.5 PPG. He most recently had 24 points against Louisville in Wednesday’s semi final victory of the NIT Season Tip-Off.
Five players went on to score double figures for the Vols in the 92-81 win. Overall Tennessee is averaging 82.8 PPG and conceding just 60.
Kansas is allowing teams to hit 40.5 percent from behind the arc. The Jayhawks are terrible at defending the three-ball, but they make up for it on the offensive end by hitting 47.2 percent from range. The Jayhawks most recently rallied for a bit win over Marquette, getting 26 points from Dedric Lawson in the eventual 77-68 victory.
I’ll point out though that Kansas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU win, while Tennessee is a strong 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or more in its previous contest.
While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’ll recommend to grab the points.
|11-22-18||Hawaii v. Utah -9.5||Top||90-79||Loss||-105||16 h 26 m||Show|
This is a 10* Tourney Takedown on Utah (11:30 EST).
Hawaii enters off an 85-68 victory over Northern Arizona at home, while Utah comes in off a 98-63 win over Mississippi Valley State on Thursday.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Utes have to be loving their chances tonight to extend their win stark, as they’d cruise to an easy 80-60 home victory in this matchup last year in early December.
Hawaii is averaging 72.7 PPG and it’s averaging 66.7. Zigmars Raimo leads the nightly charge with 16 points and 6.3 boards. The Warriors are horrible at the free-throw line, averaging only 59.5 percent.
Utah is averaging 80.7 PPG and it’s allowing 67.3. Sedrick Barefield leads the way with 12 points per game. The Utes aren’t great at the line, but much better at 68 percent.
Additionally note that Utah is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU win, while Hawaii is a poor 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with a winning SU record.
Utah has six different players that score in double figures and I think that the Warriors will struggle to keep pace down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|11-22-18||Oklahoma State v. Memphis +2.5||84-64||Loss||-106||9 h 57 m||Show|
This is a 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis (4:00 EST).
This is the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational.
Oklahoma State enters off a 70-58 win over Charleston, while Memphis enters off a big 109-102 double OT win at home over Yale.
So far the Cowboys are averaging 72 PPG, while conceding 61.3. Cameron McGriff leads the nightly charge with 17.7 points and 7.7 boards per game. Oklahoma State’s numbers are skewed a little because of early vanilla competition though in my opinion and note that it’s been terrible at the free-throw line this year, hitting only 63.2 percent.
Memphis bounced back from a loss to LSU with a big victory over the experienced Bulldogs. Overall the Tigers are averaging 87 PPG and conceding 82.3. Jeremiah Martin leads the way with 17.7 points per game in the early going.
I’ll point out as well that Memphis 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more SU victories.
The Cowboys have struggled with consistency this year (blew a 24 points second half lead to lose to Charlotte and struggled to put away lowly UTSA.)
Memphis on the other hand has gone toe to toe with both LSU and Yale and I look for its depth and grit to prove to be the difference here.
Grab the points.
|11-21-18||Harvard v. San Francisco -6||57-61||Loss||-103||15 h 4 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on San Francisco (10:00 EST).
Harvard has to make the long trek across country for this late night West coast trip and I think the Crimson will stumble.
Harvard most recently fell 76-74 in Rhode Island on Friday, while San Francisco remained unbeaten after an 84-52 win over LIU Brooklyn.
The Crimson average 74.3 PPG and they allow 73.5. Chris Lewis leads the nightly charge with 15.8 points and 2.3 blocks per night.
The Dons average 85.3 PPG and they concede just 49.5. Granted those numbers are somewhat skewed due to the level of some of the competition, but overall San Francisco has been excellent thus far. Charles Minlend leads the way with 15 PPG.
Note as well that San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU win of more than 20 points.
The Dons experience proves to be the difference maker in the end in this one. Lay the points.
|11-21-18||Loyola-Chicago -4.5 v. Boston College||Top||66-78||Loss||-105||14 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Loyola Chicago (7:30 EST).
The Ramblers are 4-1 and the BC Eagles are 3-1.
This is the championship game for the Fort Myers Tip-Off from the Suncoast Credit Union Arena on Wednesday night. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers most recently posted an 82-66 win over Richmond to advance.
Lucas Williamson led the charge in that one with 23 points, while Marques Townes added 15 points. Overall the Ramblers are averaging 74.2 PPG.
BC enters the championship game off an 88-76 win over Wyoming, led by 38 points from Ky Bowman. Overall BC is averaging 76 PPG in the early going.
I’ll point out though that Loyola-Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs, while BC is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records.
BC may have the best player on the floor in Bowman, but he can’t do it by himself. The depth the Ramblers bring to the table is the difference. Lay the points.
|11-21-18||Utah Valley -3 v. Long Beach State||87-72||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Utah Valley (5:00 EST).
The 2-3 Utah Valley Wolverines get ready to battle the 2-3 LBSU 49ers at 5:00 EST in the MGM Resorts CBB tourney.
The Wolverines got back into the winners circle with a 72-65 win over Hartford on Monday. Conner Toolson led the way in that one with 12 points, four boards and three assists, while TJ Washington added 11 points, four assists and three steals.
LBSU enters off a tough 86-85 upset win over Ioan on Monday. It wasn’t pretty, as the 49ers would commit 24 turnovers. Temidayo Yussuf had 18 points, three boards and three steals.
Utah Valley sports plenty of veteran experience and note that it’s done well in this spot for bettors, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight none conference games and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite, while LBSU has struggled in this spot, going only 15-21 ATS in its last 36 as an underdog and only 12-17 ATS in is last 29 non-conference games.
Lay the points, play on Utah Valley.
|11-20-18||Colorado v. San Diego -5||Top||64-70||Win||100||12 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Diego (10:00 EST).
The Buffs enter off a tougher than expected 79-75 win over Nebraska-Omaha, while San Diego comes in off a 95-47 destruction of San Diego Christian.
If recent history is any precedence though, then the Toreros have to be loving their chances today as they’d win this match-up last year on the road 69-59.
So far the Buffs are averaging 89.5 PPG and they’re conceding 73. Namon Wright had 11 pints and four boards in the most recent victory.
San Diego is averaging 79.2 PPG, but the Toreros are allowing only 59. Isaiah Pineiro already has 53 points combined over the first two games.
I’ll point out as well that San Diego is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Colorado is a poor 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 following a SU win.
Lay the points.
|11-20-18||Pacific v. UNLV -3.5||70-96||Win||100||12 h 6 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on UNLV (10:00 EST).
These teams are matched evenly on the offensive side of the court, but the Runnin Rebels have a distinct advantage defensively and I believe that’ll be the difference in the end in this particular matchup.
Pacific most recently won 83-76 vs. Idaho State, while UNLV posted a 74-61 home win over Oakland. Last year the Rebels won 81-76 in this game.
The Tigers are averaging 77.2 PPG and they’re conceding 72.5. Anthony Townes had 14 points and seven boards in the win over Idaho State.
The Rebels are averaging 65.3 PPG, but they’re conceding only 57.7. Shakur Juiston had 18 points and ten boards in the win over Oakland.
Note that the Rebels are 4-2 ATS in their last six following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Pacific is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the MWC.
I think the Tigers’ struggle against UNLV’s suffocating defensive play. Lay the points.
|11-19-18||VCU v. Temple -2.5||Top||57-51||Loss||-105||12 h 24 m||Show|
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Temple (9:30 EST).
This is the second game of the Legends Classic from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and in my opinion this spread could easily be a lot larger.
This s Fran Dunphy’s last year as head coach of the Temple Owls and he has 561 career wins under his belt. The team is gunning for 580 to send him off and so far Temple is out to a 4-0 start, most recently downing Maryland 81-67 on Friday. Shizz Alston Jr. leads the nightly charge with 21.5 points and he’s made 14 from range over his last three games alone. Overall the Owls are averaging 80 PPG and conceding 69.5.
VCU is averaging only 70 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by conceding only 58.3. Those numbers are skewed of ours because of some of the recent competition, most recently a 72-61 home win over Bowling Green.
I’ll point out though that VCU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven neutral site affairs, while Temple is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 in the same position.
The Owls have faced the tougher schedule to this point and they have the better numbers across the board. Lay the points and expect a rout.
|11-19-18||Old Dominion -4 v. Northern Iowa||53-54||Loss||-106||9 h 34 m||Show|
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Old Dominion (3:00 EST).
This is part of the 2018 Paradise Jam tournament in the Virgin Islands.
Both teams come in at 2-2.
ODU enters off a 65-47 win over Kennesaw State, led by 14 points from Ahmad Caver. BJ Stith would go on to add 13 points and ten boards. Overall the Monarchs have been getting strong defensive play and are averaging 63 PPG.
Northern Iowa comes in off a 90-85 win over Eastern Kentucky. AJ Green led the way with 23 points, while Spencer Haldeman added 16. In the early going the Panthers are averaging 80.8 PPG.
But now UNI faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. Note as well that the Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games, while ODU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 50 points or less.
I’m banking on ODU’s experience and superior defensive play to prove to be the difference here. Lay the points.
|11-18-18||UCF -1 v. Western Kentucky||Top||78-62||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
My 10* Takedown is on UCF (6:30 EST).
I play against the UCF Knights on the College Gridiron last night and lost badly with Cincinnati. But I think the Knights are the correct call on the hardwood vs. the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky in the championship game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational.
UCF beat St. Joe’s 77-57 on Friday, while the Hilltoppers bested WVU 63-57 Friday
The Knights shot 55 percent from the floor in their win Friday, led by 22 points from Terrell Allen. Overall UCF is averaging 77 PPG and allowing just 64.8.
WVU is riding a three-game win streak as well, but after Friday’s upset win over the Mountaineers, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here.
WKU is averaging 71.8 PPG and it’s conceding 68.
I’ll point out though that the Mountaineers are just 1-4 ATS in their last three after a three games or more non-conference unbeaten streak, while UCF is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs.
I think UCF wears down WVU and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
|11-17-18||St. Louis +6 v. Seton Hall||Top||66-64||Win||100||12 h 7 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on St. Louis (8:00 EST).
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last.
Saint Louis is 3-0, most recently taking care of North Alabama 69-58. Javon Bess had 16 points and ten boards, leading four players in double figures in scoring. Note that the Billikens have five players with at least six assists and it also has a 1.64 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Seton Hall lost four starters from last year and it showed in a humbling 80-57 loss to Nebraska on Wednesday. Myles Powell was a bright spot with 24 points.
I’ll point out as well that Seton Hall is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while St. Louis is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as a road underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss.
This one has outright upset written all over it my opinion, but as stated off the top, I’m going to grab the points.
|11-16-18||Connecticut v. Iowa -4||Top||72-91||Win||100||7 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* Champ Game Crusher is on Iowa (6:30 EST).
Both teams are 3-0 to open the year. This is the championship game of the 2K classic from New York.
UConn got here by upsetting Syracuse 83-76 last night. Jalen Adams and Alterique Gilbert each had 16 points. Overall the Huskies are averaging 85.7 PPG.
I played on the Hawkeyes in their 77-69 upset victory over Oregon. Jordan Bohannon was a standout with 16 points, while Luke Garza added 12. Overall Iowa is averaging 85 PPG.
I’ll point out though that the UConn is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games, while Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference contests.
I think the Hawkeyes find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Play on Iowa.
|11-15-18||Oregon v. Iowa +4||Top||69-77||Win||100||14 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* Takedown is on Iowa (9:30 EST).
The No. 13 Oregon Ducks take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the semi finals of the 2K Classic at MSG tonight.
Oregon enters off an 81-47 victory over Eastern Washington, while Iowa comes in off a 93-82 win at home over Green Bay.
The Ducks are aerating 82.5 PPG and allowing 52. Bol Bol leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points, 12.5 boards and 3.5 blocks per game.
Iowa would love to pull of the upset obviously to reach the championship game. The Hawkeyes come in averaging 85 PPG and conceding 72.5. Tyler Cook averages 14.5 points and seven boards per game.
I’ll point out as well that Oregon is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 neutral site affairs, while Iowa is a solid 6-4 in all neutral court contests.
This one has the feel that whichever team has its hands on the ball last will find a way to get the job done in the end. Grab the points.
|11-15-18||UCF v. CS-Fullerton +4||68-52||Loss||-104||8 h 37 m||Show|
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on CS Fullerton (2:00 EST).
UCF enters off an 89-79 home loss to FAU, while CS Fullerton posted a 106-53 win over non-division 1 West Coast Baptist.
UCF is now 1-1, averaging 81.5 PPG and conceding 75. BJ Taylor had 29 points in a losing cause to FAU.
CS Fullerton is 1-1, getting 35 points from Kyle Allman Jr. in the opening win. Over two games the Titans have averaged 100 points per game and conceded 77.5.
I’ll point out that UCF is just 2-4 ATS in its last six neutral court contests, while CS Fullerton is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 as an underdog and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 60 points or less.
Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
|11-14-18||Seton Hall +8.5 v. Nebraska||Top||57-80||Loss||-110||13 h 48 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Seton Hall (7:30 EST).
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I think the Pirates have what it takes to keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Seton Hall lost most of its starting line-up from last year, but it returns one and the Pirates opened with a convincing 89-49 win over Wagner to open the year. Myles Powell had 30 points, going 5 of 7 from range, while Michael Nzei had 11 points and seven boards.
The Pirates were on a five game win streak against the Big Ten before falling 71-65 to Rutgers last December.
Nebraska missed out on the Tournament last year, but it’s opened the season with back to back blowout wins. Can anyone say letdown spot?!
The Huskers have held both opponents to under 40 points, but I think the step up in competition today will catch Nebraska off guard.
I’ll point out as well that Seton Hall is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the +7.5 to +10.5 points range.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Seton Hall.
|11-13-18||Rhode Island v. College of Charleston -1.5||55-66||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider on the College Of Charleston (7:00 EST).
I think Rhode Island comes up short in this tough non-conference mach up.
The Rams lost several key figures over the offseason that contributed to their back-to-back NCAA Tournament teams (which includes head coach Dan Hurley, who went to UConn.)
The Charleston Cougars though went to the tournament for the first time since 1999 last year and they return several key members, including Grant Riler, who averaged 18.6 PPG and Jarell Brantley, who added 17.3.
Charleston most recently beat Western Carolina 73-70 with Riler leading the way with 28 points.
The Cougars are averaging 104.9 PPG per 100 possessions and they’re allowing 99.9 points per 100 possessions.
Rhode Island did open the year with a win over lowly Bryant on Tuesday, taking down the Bears 97-63. Fatts Russell had 21 points. So far the Rams have averaged 103.4 points per 100 possessions, while giving up 97.4 points per 100 possessions.
I’ll point out though that Charleston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning SU records, while Rhode Island is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the same position.
The Cougars depth and experience wins the game. Lay the points.
|11-13-18||Western Michigan +4 v. Oakland||Top||85-77||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST).
WMU comes in off a 90-64 road loss to Ole Miss, while the Golden Grizzlies fell flat in an 87-86 setback at home Toledo.
Note that this is a revenge game for the Broncos after Oakland posted a 78-73 road win over WMU last year.
Over two games this year the Broncos have so far averaged 76.5 PPG, while holding their opposition to 73.4. Josh Davis has so far posted 26 points over the two contests.
Oakland is averaging 78.2 PPG and it’s allowing 76.2. Jaevin Cumberland scored 14 points in the loss to the Rockets.
I’ll point out though that that Golden Grizzlies are just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 at home and 0-5 ATS following an ATS victory, while WMU is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Western Michigan.
|11-12-18||Utah v. Minnesota -7.5||Top||69-78||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Minnesota (9:00 EST).
Utah opened with a 75-61 win over Maine on Thursday, but it’s clearly going to have its hands full here against a Golden Gophers team which comes in off a convincing victory itself on Opening night.
In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.
The Utes were led by Sedrick Barefield, who had 18 points. Donnie Tillman added 15. Utah held Maine to 40 percent shooting and held a 42-26 rebounding advantage.
Note though that the Utes are just 4-13 in non-conference road games since 2011/12.
The Golden Gophers smashed Omaha 104-76, as Amir Coffey shined with 18 points, four assists and two steals. Dupre McBreyer was another standout with 17 points.
Note that the Gophers are 46-4 at home in non-conference games once 2013, winning 20 of the last 21.
I’ll point out as well that Utah is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 as an underdog, while Minnesota is 23-17 ATS In its last 40 as a favorite.
Lay the points.
|11-11-18||Vanderbilt +2.5 v. USC||Top||82-78||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Vanderbilt (9:00 EST).
Both teams come into this one at 1-0, as USC routed Robert Morris and Vandy smashed Winthrop.
Vanderbilt is led by Darius Garland, who had 24 points, four assists and two steals in the season opening victory. Simi Shittu was a stand out as well with 18 points, ten boards, two blocks and two steals.
USC is led by Kevin Porter Jr, who had 15 points and five boards in the win over Robert Morris. But note that the Trojans were sloppy, committing 15 turnovers, a result of point guard Jordan McLaughlin being absent. Last year he was the Pac 12 assists leader.
These are two evenly matched teams, but Vanderbilt plays with revenge after a 93-89 OT loss last year in Nashville. USC’s top player Bennie Boatwright did not play in the opener and if he does get the call tonight, his overall health is still a concern.
I like Garland to lead his team to a victory, but that said, I’m going to grab the points in the end.
|11-10-18||Loyola Marymount v. UNLV -4||Top||61-50||Loss||-110||15 h 45 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on UNLV (10:00 EST).
UNLV improved to 20-13 last season and I think it’ll “bring the heat” on Opening night.
Loyola Marymount was 11-20 last year and the Lions haven’t had a winning season since 2012.
The Rebels have three capable seniors in Noah Robtham, Kris Clyburn and Shakur Julston. Last year Julston averaged 14.6 points and ten boards per game.
The Lions are already 1-0, coming into this one contented off a 75-43 win over lowly Westcliff. Previous to last year’s disastrous overall start, Loyola Marymount actually went 15-15. But last season was a major step back, especially against the conference, finishing 5-13 in league play.
The Rebels have the more experienced senior group of players and on opening night, I think that’s going to be more than enough to take care of the “thin” Lions. Loyola Marymount shot only 35.7 percent from behind the arc in their opening victory, which isn’t going to get the job done tonight.
I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points.
|11-09-18||Yale -3 v. California||76-59||Win||100||16 h 13 m||Show|
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Yale (9*) (11:00 EST).
This is the 2018/19 Pac-12 China Game in Shanghai. This is the season opener for both teams.
Yale comes in with plenty of veteran leadership this year and I ultimately believe that that factor will prove to be the difference maker on Opening night “across the pond.” Miye Oni averaged 15.1 points and six boards last year, while Alex Copeland averaged 11.2 PPG. Overall 95 percent of their offensive production from last year returns for the Bulldogs.
Yale has a 42-14 Ivy League record over the last four years and it’s won two league titles in that time.
Cal posted only eight wins last year and it’s once again in re-building mode this season for the most part as well.
The Bears were one of the worst shooting teams in the country and also one of the worst at turning it over. Paris Austin, a Boise State transfer, is expected to bring some stability to the back-court.
Note though that Cal is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 neutral site affairs, while Yale is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games.
This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.
|11-09-18||Arkansas v. Texas -6.5||Top||71-73||Loss||-108||13 h 34 m||Show|
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Texas at 7;00 ET.
Arkansas and Texas will renew their old Southwest Conference rivalry Friday in the Armed Forces Classic at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas returns FOUR of five starters from last year and has a game under its belt, a 71-59 victory against Eastern Illinois. As for Arkansas (playing its season-opener), the Razorbacks lost 79.6 percent of their scoring and 64.7 percent of their rebounding from last year.
The Razorbacks lost eight players, including five of their top six scorers, from last season's 23-win NCAA Tournament team. All-SEC first team selection Daniel Gafford ( sophomore forward) averaged 11.8 & 6.2 last season is one of just three scholarship players returning. Meanwhile, PG Jalen Harris, who redshirted last season after transferring from New Mexico, is the only Arkansas guard with any Division I experience. The good news for the Razorbacks is that there are some impressive recruits coming in, including 4-star players Isaiah Joe, Ethan Henderson and Keyshawn Embery. We'll see.
The Longhorns finished just 19-15 last season, after blowing a 14-point second-half lead against Nevada in the team's first NCAA contest. Texas does return four of five starters but the loss was a big one, as the 7-0 Bamba (12.9-10.5-3.7 BPG) was the sixth pick of the NBA Draft. However, Texas not only returns four starters but the Longhorns have six freshman. Its crop of freshman was ranked EIGHTH nationally by 247Sports.
Both schools own quality head coaches. Arkansas' Mike Anderson has led UAB, Missouri and now Arkansas, to NCAA berths plus is one of just four current Division I coaches with 15-plus years of experience and no losing seasons. Roy Williams, Tom Izzo and Mark Few are the others. That's pretty sweet company! Texas' Shaka Smart was an impressive 163-56 (.744) at VCU, leading the Rams to the CBI championship in 2010 (his first year as a head coach) and then to the NCAA Final 4 in 2011, as an 11-seed. He's taken the Longhorns to the "Big Dance" in two of his three years at Austin but his overall record was just 50-50 entering the current season.
Nobody is saying Smart needs to win in 2018-19 to keep his job but I bet plenty of Texas people are "thinking it!' Texas has much more experience plus the Longhorns have a game under their belt. The El Paso site is pretty much a home game and as noted above, the Razorbacks have a ton of rebuilding to do. Maybe James Street (or for that matter, Randy Peschel) will be in the stands? If you don't know those names, you are too damn young! Lay the points with Texas.
|11-09-18||Missouri v. Iowa State -8||59-76||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Iowa State (8*) (7:00 EST).
Missouri lost Michael Porter Jr. to the NBA, but the Tigers return several key players, including Jeremiah Tillmon and Kevin Puryear. Missouri got 19 points and ten boards from Mark Smith in the opener vs. Central Arkansas. Overall it was a poor shooting game though, as the team would combine to go just 3 of 18 from beyond the arc.
Iowa State was just 4-14 in Big 12 play last season, but anything short of a tournament spot this year would be considered a disappointment. Iowa State opened with a 79-53 win over Alabama State, as four players would go on to score in double figures, led by Michael Jacobson with 17. So far Iowa State is averaging 111 points per 100 possessions so far this season, while allowing 93 per 100 possessions.
The Tigers lost Jontay Porter to injury and I think he’ll be missed here against a Cyclones team looking to send a message. Lay the points.
|11-09-18||Stanford v. NC-Wilmington +2.5||72-59||Loss||-110||12 h 13 m||Show|
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on NC Wilmington (8*) (7:00 EST).
The Cardinal were 19-16 last year and they opened this season with a 96-74 home win over Seattle on Tuesday.
NC Wilmington was just 11-21 last season and it enters hungry after a 97-93 OT road loss to Campbell in its opener.
Last year Stanford averaged 75.9 PPG and it conceded 74.9. KZ Okpala had 29 points in the season opening victory.
Last year UNC Wilmington averaged 79.4 PPG and it conceded 83.4. Ty Taylor II had 29 points in the season opening loss including six three-pointers.
I’ll point out though that Stanford is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games after scoring 95 points or more in a victory in its previous outing.
I think the “hungrier” team is NC Wilmington. The Seahawks return plenty of talent and in a contest which i see coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
|11-06-18||Duke +2 v. Kentucky||118-84||Win||100||14 h 2 m||Show|
My 9* Champs Classic play is on Duke (9:30 EST).
Duke posted a 29-8 record last year and a 13-5 record in ACC action, while the Wildcats went 26-11 with a 10-8 record in SEC action.
Both teams feature plenty of new faces, but I think the depth and skill that Duke brings to the table will be just too much for the Wildcats to hang with on Opening Night.
Duke lost its top five scorers from last year, but it recruited Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, who are considered two of the best talents in the country. It also features 6 foot 8 forward Cam Reddish and leading scorer Marquez Bolden also returns. Last year the Blue Devils averaged 84.4 PPG and allowed 69.6.
Kentucky comes into the new season ranked No. 2. The Wildcats lost many big names to the NBA over the offseason, but they still feature plenty of talent as well in Quade Gren and PJ Washington. Last year the Wildcats averaged 76.8 PPG and allowed 70.2. That was ranked 116th overall.
I’ll point out as well that the Blue Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site affairs.
Kentucky returns just 31.5 percent of its scoring from last year and on Opening Night, I think the Blue Devils will take advantage.
|11-06-18||Florida +4 v. Florida State||Top||60-81||Loss||-108||15 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* CBB TIP OFF OPENER is on Florida (9:00 EST).
Florida has won 27 straight season openers but it’ll have its hands full here. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for the Gators after the Seminoles embarrassed them 83-66 in Gainesville last year.
Three starters return for the Gators though, a team which averaged 75.8 PPG. KeVaughn Allen averaged 11.0 points last year.
FSU is predicted to finish seventh in the difficult 15-team ACC this year. The Seminoles also return three starters. One of those starters though, Phil Cofer, won’t be playing tonight because of a foot injury. Cofer averaged 12.8 points and 5.1 boards last year.
This one is very evenly matched, but I think the absence of Cofer is a significant one for the Seminoles. The Gators play with revenge and I think they’ll keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Grab the points.
|04-02-18||Michigan +7 v. Villanova||Top||62-79||Loss||-110||36 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Michigan (9:20 EST).
I had a play on Villanova in the Final Four in its 95-79 win over Kansas, but I think the Wildcats are going to stumble here against the depth and defensive pressure that the Wolverines bring to the table.
The Wolverines were down by ten with 14:10 left to go in the second half before rallying for their victory over Loyola-Chicago.
Michigan went down early, but its confidence never waivered and its relentless defensive pressure proved to be just too much for the Ramblers to handle in the end, holding Loyola-Chicago to just one made 3-pointer.
Mortiz Wagner finished with 24 points and 15 boards for the Wolverines in the victory as Michigan would go on to score 47 points in the second half while shooting 57 percent.
Villanova was red hot in the first half of its Final Four win over the Jayhawks, connecting on 17 of 33 shots, including going 13 of 26 from range. The Wildcats enter the National Championship Game as the No. 1 offense with an average of 87 PPG.
Michigan though presents difficult matchup problems on the wings and its defense is playing at an elite level right now. Outright win? It’s not out of the question obviously.
But in a game which I think is more even than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, one which could very well be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
Play on Michigan.
|03-31-18||Kansas v. Villanova -5||Top||79-95||Win||100||131 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on Villanova (8:45 EST).
I had a play on Kansas last weekend, but I’m going against the Jayhawks in the Final Four. The Jayhawks advanced with an 85-81 OT win over Duke, while Villanova advanced with a 71-59 victory over Texas Tech.
Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. Malik Newman had 32 points in the Elite Eight victory. Overall the Jayhawks won the rebounding battle as well 47-32, helping to overcome 18 turnovers.
And sloppy play like that won’t get the job done against the Wildcats, who enter as the nation’s No. 1 offense with 87 PPG. The defense has been decent as well, conceding 70.5. Jalen Bruson led the way in the most recent victory with 15 points.
(Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly)
These teams are very evenly matched, with plenty of veteran experience. But the Wildcats’ depth (six players averring double figures) will prove to ultimately be too much for Kansas to overcome in my opinion. The Jayhawks battled tooth and nail against the Blue Devils, but I have a hard time seeing Kansas matching pace down the stretch.
Villanova’s top ranked offense wins out in the end. Lay the points.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan||57-69||Loss||-116||128 h 15 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Loyola Chicago (6:05 EST).
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio.
So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State.
Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting.
Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards.
(Additional supporting ATS trends to be added shortly)
The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago’s defense has also looked very stout as well.
The Wolverines struggled offensively last time out and it’s not going to get any easier here. The Ramblers appear to be a team of destiny right now and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last.
Grab the points.
|03-28-18||Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty||67-51||Win||100||57 h 13 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UIC (7:00 EST).
The winner of this game will advance to the CIT Championship Game. Illinois Chicago comes in red hot, putting up at least 81 points in each of its first two tournament wins.
Liberty averages only 71.4 PPG, but it put up 84 in its latest victory.
The Flames most recently beat Austin Peay 83-81, putting up 52 points in the second half, while shooting 43.5 percent from range. Marcus Ottey led the way in the victory with 17 points, but in all four of five starters would post double figures in scoring.
Liberty comes in off the 84-71 home win over Central Michigan, also using a big second half to pull away for good, outscoring the Chips by 13 points after the break. Liberty would go on to shoot 56.1 percent from the floor, including 44 percent from range. Four players would reach double figures in scoring, led by Ryan Kemrite with 21.
Note though that Liberty is 0-2 ATS in its last two after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Illinois Chicago is 5-1 ATS this season when playing with five or six days of rest.
The Flames come in playing at an extremely high level offensively right now and I believe that chemistry will keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Everything point to a “nail biter,” so grab the points.
|03-27-18||Mississippi State +2.5 v. Penn State||Top||60-75||Loss||-100||36 h 8 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Mississippi State (9:30 EST).
It’s No. 4 Mississippi State against No. 4 Penn State in the semifinal of the NIT from Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the SEC.
The Bulldogs average 74 PPG, while shooting 47 percent from the floor collectively. Quinndary Weatherspoon leads the nightly charge with 15 PPG. Note that Mississippi State is stout defensively, conceding just 64 PPG.
The Nittany Lions average 75 PPG on 46 percent shooting, led by 20 points and five assists a night from guard Tony Carr. Penn State’s offense might be slightly better, but its defense has been its weak point this season.
Additionally I’ll point out that Mississippi State is 27-20 ATS in its last 47 when playing the role of underdog, while Penn State is just 3-6 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest.
I think the Bulldogs’ fough defense slows down the Nittany Lions here and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to be a “nail biter.”
Play on Mississippi State.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky v. Utah +1||64-69||Win||102||34 h 42 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Utah (7:00 EST).
It’s the 27-10 WKU Hilltoppers against the 21-11 Utah Utes in the semi finals of the NIT at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the Pac 12.
WKU enters off a 92-84 win over Oklahoma State, led by 30 points and eight boards from Taveion Hollingsworth. Dwight Coleby was another bright spot with 16 points, 13 boards and three blocks.
The Hilltoppers come into this one averaging 78.8 PPG. Utah comes into this one averaging only 73.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end. Utah looked particularly stingy last time out in its 67-58 victory over St. Mary’s.
Sedrick Barefield was a bright spot offensively with 19 points and four assists in that one, while Ryler Rawson would add 17 points.
Saint Mary’s is one of the toughest offenses in the nation, so the Hilltoppers are going to have their hands full here.
Defense doesn’t always win championships and the Utes may not ultimately go on to win the entire NIT, but I do think their smothering play will ultimately prove to be too much for WKU to overcome this time.
Play on Utah.
|03-26-18||North Texas +3.5 v. San Francisco||Top||62-72||Loss||-105||36 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Texas (10:00 EST).
This is Game 1 of the best of three championship series for the CBI Tournament crown, with North Texas facing off against San Francisco.
The Mean Green advanced by taking down Jacksonville State 90-68 at home on Wednesday, while the Dons held on for a 65-62 win over Campbell in their semi-final matchup.
North Texas averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 71.4. Roosevelt Smart had 20 points in the most recent victory as the Mean Green would go on to hit a smoking 61.5 percent from the floor in the win, including going a lights out 14 of 20 from range (also won the rebound battle decisively, 38-23.)
San Francisco comes into this one averaging 68.9 PPG, while conceding 68.4. The Dons have won three straight close ones to advance, with the victories coming by a total of 12 combined points. Frankie Ferrari was a bright spot in the most recent with 18 points and six assists.
I’ll point out though that home court has been anything but an advantage for the Dons this year, as they come in at just 6-11 ATS at home this season (and only 7-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite).
And that’s bade news facing a Mean Green team which has excelled away from friendly confines this season, as UNT is 12-4 ATS on the road thus far (also note that it’s 14-6 ATS as an underdog this year as well.)
I think UNT is playing the best overall ball in this tournament right now and while the Dons do have a great defense, I can’t see San Francisco keeping pace offensively.
Grab the points, play on the Mean Green.
|03-25-18||Duke v. Kansas +3.5||Top||81-85||Win||100||33 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (5:05 EST).
Duke enters the Elite Eight off a much tougher than expected 69-65 win over Syracuse, while Kansas advanced with a tougher than expected 80-76 victory over Clemson.
Duke averages 84.4 PPG and it concedes 69.2. The Blue Devils allowed the Orange to hit 49 percent of their shots, but they’d give up just four three-pointers. Duke also forced 15 turnovers, while committing only seven of its own.
The Blue Devils though shot just 39.3 percent from the floor in the victory, including only 19.4 percent from range. Marvin Bagley III led the way with 22 points, while Grayson Allen added 15.
Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. The Jayhawks needed to hit free throws down the stretch to hold off Clemson in the Round of 16. Overall though Kansas looked pretty good, hitting 46.7 percent from the floor, including 45.5 percent from range.
The Jayhawks have struggled defensively in the tournament, but they looked better against the Tigers by holding them to 43.1 percent shooting, including only 30 percent from range.
(Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly)
Both teams struggled more than they should have in the Sweet 16, but each managed to dig down and gut out the victory. Kansas though has gotten progressively better as the tournament has worn on, while it appears Duke is heading in the opposite direction.
I’m banking on these trends continuing as I believe the Jayhawks will be just too much for the Blue Devils to handle down the stretch.
That said, grab the points!
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan -4.5||Top||54-58||Loss||-105||36 h 6 m||Show|
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan (8:40 EST).
It’s the 23-11 Florida State Seminoles against 31-7 Michigan in the Elite Eight on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines.
FSU upset Gonzaga 75-60 on Thursday, holding the Bulldogs to just 33.9 percent shooting. Terance Mann led the way with 18 points, five boards, two assist and one block in the victory.
The Seminoles enter the Elite Eight averaging 81.1 PPG, while conceding 73.7.
The Wolverines average 73.8 PPG and they concede just 63.1. Michigan’s offense though was firing on all cylinders in its 99-72 destruction of Texas A&M on Thursday (I had the Wolverines in that one), another school which predicates itself on its tough defensive play.
Michigan shot an unreal 61.9 percent from the floor in the victory, including a blistering 58.3 percent from range and I’m fully expecting the team to carry that confidence and momentum over here. Mhaummad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman led the way in the win with 24 points, five boards, seven assists and a steal.
(Additional supporting ATS trends added shortly.)
FSU has looked good on both ends of the court, but it runs into a “buzz saw” in Michigan right now. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the nation, and now their offense is firing on all cylinders as well.
All signs point to a blowout, lay the points.
|03-24-18||Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State +1||Top||78-62||Loss||-100||33 h 27 m||Show|
My 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Kansas State (6:05 EST).
It’s the 31-5 Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. the 25-11 K-State Wildcats on Saturday night in the Elite Eight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Kansas State.
The Ramblers are on one of those “Cinderalla” runs right now after getting the better of Nevada 69-68 in the regional semifinal on Thursday. Marques Townes led the way in that one with 18 points, including the last second three-pointer to seal the deal.
Loyola Illinois averages just 71.8 PPG, making up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 62.4.
Kansas State averages 71.6 PPG and it concedes just 63.4. The Wildcats looked particularly impressive in their 61-58 win over Kentucky, led by 22 points and nine boards from Xavier Sneed, while Barry Brown added 13 points.
Loyola Illinois has been the biggest surprise of The Tournament so far, but I think it’s set up for a big letdown here. Beating Nevada is no small feat, but K-State is playing at an entirely different level right now in my opinion, as its dominating win over Kentucky has me convinced.
(Additional supporting ATS stats to be posted shortly.)
I think Kansas State is the better overall team and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
|03-23-18||Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue||Top||78-65||Win||100||34 h 35 m||Show|
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Texas Tech (9:55 EST).
It’s No. 2 Purdue against No. 3 Texas Tech in the final game of the Sweet 16 on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defensive minded Aggies.
Purdue advanced to this point off wins against CS Fullerton and Butler, while Texas Tech beat Stephen F. Austin and Florida.
The Red Raiders’ dynamic defense was on full display in their 69-66 win over the Gators on Saturday. Texas Tech would go on to shoot 44 percent from the floor, while holding Florida to just 39 percent.
Keenan Evans led the way in the victory with 22 points, while Zhaire Smith added 18 points and nine boards.
For the season Texas Tech averages 74.9 points and it concedes 64.6.
The Boilermakers average 80.8 PPG and they concede 65.4. Purdue would hold on for a 76-73 win over Butler, but I think it’s going to come up short here against the Red Raiders’ relentless defense.
Purdue lost the services of 7-foot center Isaac Haas in Round 2 to injury and its depth carried it in the win over the Bulldogs, but I have a hard time seeing the the Boilermakers maintaining that same drive against a Texas Tech team that’s simply firing on all cylinders right now.
Vincent Edwards was a bright sot in the win over Butler with 20 points, while Carsen Edwards, the team’s leading scorer, was held to just 13.
I’ll point out as well that Texas Tech has done well in this spot for bettors of late by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a SU victory, while Purdue has struggled in this position by going just 1-7-1 ATS in its last eight against a team with a wining percent above .600.
The table is set for another outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Red Raiders.
|03-23-18||West Virginia v. Villanova -5.5||Top||78-90||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Villanova (7:35 EST).
The 26-10 WVU Mountaineers get ready to battle the 32-4 Villanova Wildcats on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.
WVU got to this point after taking down Marshall 94-71, led by 28 points from Jevon Carter. Lamont West was a standout as well with 18 points and ten boards.
The Mountaineers enter the Sweet 16 averaging 80.2 PPG.
The Wildcats average 86.9 PPG (No. 1 in the country.) Villanova smashed Alabama 81-58 in its last outing, led by 23 points from Mikal Bridges and 18 points from Donte DiVencenzo.
(I plan to update my analysis closer to game time with a few more stats, but the bulk of analysis is here)
The Mountaineers did a great job in slowing down Murray State and Marshall, two schools which are also “offense oriented,” but clearly Villanova is on an entirely different level. WVU’s calling card is its tough defensive play, but I think it will struggle to contain the Wildcats’ dynamic offense, which gets the job done both on the inside and out.
I’m expecting a solid cover from Villanova here. Lay the points.
|03-23-18||Clemson v. Kansas -4||76-80||Push||0||102 h 12 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (7:05 EST).
It’s the ACC vs. the Big 12 in the Sweet 16 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Jayhawks.
Clemson got to this point off an 84-53 win over Auburn in the second round, while Kansas advanced with a tight 83-79 win over Seton Hall.
The Tigers average only 73.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end of the floor by conceding just 65.5 PPG. Clemson smashed Auburn on both ends of the floor and it was led by Gabe DeVoe with 22 points.
Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 70.9. The Jayhawks shot 50.0 percent from the floor in their latest victory, including 42.9 percent from range. Malik Newman had 28 points in the victory, while Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk had 16.
Clemson put on a show last time out, but it faces a much stiffer test this time around. I think the Tigers are poised for a letdown here.
The Jayhawks hold the significant advantage on both ends of the floor and I look for their superior offense to be the difference at the end of the night.
Lay the points with confidence, play on Kansas.
|03-22-18||Florida State v. Gonzaga -5.5||Top||75-60||Loss||-107||81 h 53 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Gonzaga (10:05 EST).
It’s No. 9 FSU taking on No. 4 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.
Florida State upset No. 1 Xavier 75-70 on Sunday and suffice it to say, I think it’s set up for a letdown here.
Gonzaga would go on to take down Ohio State 90-84 in its second round matchup on Saturday.
Florida State averages 81.1 and it concedes 73.7. Braian Angola had 15 points in the upset victory over Xavier as the Seminoles would go on to hit 8 of 23 from range and shoot 43.6 percent overall.
The Bulldogs average 84.2 PPG and they concede just 67.5. Zach Norvell Jr. had 28 points in the victory over Ohio State.
Gonzaga led at the half in that one by 11 points, but it actually trailed 67-62 with 6:02 left to play in the game, before then going on a 16-2 run.
I’ll point out that Florida State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning SU records.
The Bulldogs let their foot off the gas against the Ducks, but Gonzaga won’t make the same mistake twice. While these teams are pretty evenly matched on the offensive end, it’s the Bulldogs’ defensive prowess which tips the scales in their favor in this matchup.
Lay the points, play on Gonzaga.
|03-22-18||Texas A&M v. Michigan -3||72-99||Win||100||78 h 23 m||Show|
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Michigan (7:35 EST).
It’s the SEC vs. the Big Ten in this Sweet 16 matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines.
Texas A&M advanced with a stunning 86-65 win over No. 2 UNC on Sunday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here after one of the program’s biggest ever victories.
Michigan got to this point by ousting No. 6 Houston 64-63 on Saturday night by the help of a last second buzzer beater.
Texas A&M averages 75.3 PPG and it concedes 69.6. The Aggies shot 51.7 percent from the floor in the win over the Tar Heels and they won the rebound battle 50-36. TJ Starks would lead the charge with 21 points.
Michigan averages 73.8 PPG and it concedes 63.1. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman would post 12 points in the Wolverines one-point second round victory.
I’ll point out though that the Aggies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game in which they were the underdog, while the Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 65 points or less in their previous outing.
Michigan found a way to get the job done last time out despite not being close to its best. I don’t expect that to happen twice and while A&M found a way to slow down the high-flying Tar Heels, the Wolverines would love nothing more than to slow this one down and exert their will slowly.
All signs point to a rout, lay the points.
|03-21-18||Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||92-84||Win||100||27 h 50 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Western Kentucky (8:00 EST).
WKU is off an upset 79-75 road win over USC and I believe the Hilltoppers come in “under the radar” here as well. OKS enters off a 71-65 home win over Stanford.
Western Kentucky averages 78.4 PPG and it concedes 70.0. The Hilltoppers shot 53.6 percent from the floor in their win over the Trojans, while also hitting 16 of 17 free throw attempts. Justin Johnson led the way with 23 points, while Dwight Coleby added 13. Note that WKU is 8-5 on the road this season, averring 79.5 points and conceding 76.5 in those contests.
OKS averages 76.4 PPG and it concedes 72.7 (is better at home with 79.2 and 69.6 respectively.) The Cowboys looked decent defensively against the Cardinal, but overall that’s been their weak point this year. Oklahoma Stats is known for its offense, but note though that it shot just 35.7 percent from the floor in the win over Stanford. Jeffrey Carroll led the way in the victory with 26 points.
I’ll point out as well that WKU is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this year, while OKS is just 2-4 ATS in the same position.
OKS is 15-5 at home this season, but the Hilltoppers won’t be going down without a fight. These teams are very evenly matched and I believe this one is going to be decided by whichever one has its hands on the ball last.
And because of that, I’m grabbing the points.
|03-20-18||Penn State v. Marquette||Top||85-80||Win||100||27 h 9 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Penn State (7:00 EST).
Penn State got 24 points from Tony Carr to beat Notre Dame on the road on Saturday and I think that the Nittany Lions are going to carry that momentum over here.
Penn State was led by 18 points and nine boards from Josh Reaves, while Shep Garner added 15 points in the win over the Irish. The Nittany Lions got the job done on the defensive end of the floor though, holding ND to just 38.3 percent shooting and only 4 of 22 from range.
For the season Penn State averages 74.2 PPG and it concedes just 66.5.
Marquette averages 81.4 PPG, but it needs to push the pace as it concedes an average of 78.3. The Golden Eagles shot 12 of 26 from range in the win over the Ducks and they hit 57.6 percent of their shots from the floor overall. Andrew Rowsey led the way with 29 points and nine assists.
I’ll point out though that Penn State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Marquette is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.
The Nittany Lions’ defense is firing on all cylinders and they’re playing better offensively as well. The Golden Eagles can’t stop anybody and I have a hard time seeing them keeping pace down the stretch.
Grab the points, play on Penn State.
|03-19-18||Washington v. St. Mary's -10.5||Top||81-85||Loss||-102||36 h 49 m||Show|
The third 10* PEFECT STORM pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Saint Mary’s (11:00 ET).
Washington enters the second round of the NIT off a 77-74 win over Boise State, while Saint Mary’s crushed Southeastern Louisiana 89-45 at home.
Washington averages 74.4 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies shot 47.4 percent against Boise State and they were led by 25 points from Jaylen Nowell.
The Huskies have been better at home that on the road, as they’ve averages just 69.4 points and concede 73.2 away from friendly confines this season.
Saint Mary’s averages 77.3 PPG and it concedes just 63.9. Note that it’s been even better at home though by averaging 78.3 points and conceding just 59.8. The Gaels shot a blistering 59.3 percent in their opening round win and I simply can’t see the Huskies keeping pace down the stretch.
I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five in the same position.
The Huskies had a decent season, but the Gaels present a very difficult matchup here. I think Saint Mary’s continues to play with a chip on its shoulder as it looks to run up this score once again.
Lay the points.
|03-19-18||LSU +4.5 v. Utah||71-95||Loss||-115||34 h 49 m||Show|
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on LSU (9:00 EST).
It’s No. 2 seed Utah hosting No. 3 seed LSU in the second round of the NIT on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the dog.
LSU was dropped early in the SEC Tournament, but it answered with an 84-76 victory over Louisiana Lafayette to open the NIT at home.
The Tigers looked sharp offensively by hitting 52.7 percent of their shots and I believe they carry that momentum over here. Duop Reath was a standout in the victory with 26 points and 11 boards.
Utah beat UC Davis 69-59 in the opening round, needing to outscore UCD 22-11 in the final quarter to secure the 10-point win. Justin Bibbins hit all eight free throws and finished with 21 points and six boards.
I’ll point out though that LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while Utah is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and only 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss.
LSU is a big team and it won’t be intimidated here. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.
Play on LSU.
|03-19-18||Stanford +7.5 v. Oklahoma State||65-71||Win||100||32 h 49 m||Show|
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (7:00 EST).
It’s the No. 3 Stanford Cardinal against the No. 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second round of the NIT on Monday and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the dog.
Stanford got by BYU 86-83 in its first round win, while OKS got the better of FGCU 80-68.
The Cardinal average 76.2 PPG and they concede 75. Stanford shot 44 percent from the floor against BYU, but also held it to just 44 percent shooting. They also won the rebound battle 47-37. Reid Travis led the way with 25 points and 14 rebounds.
Stanford comes in having won three of its last four.
OKS averages 76.5 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Cowboys have won four of their last five, but they looked pretty sloppy in the win over FGCU, converting only 35 percent of their shots. Jeffrey Carroll would go just 3 of 11 from the field, but he’d finish with a team-high 18 points.
I’ll point out though that Stanford has done well in this spot for bettors this season by going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU victory and 4-1 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records, while OKS has struggled in this position by going just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 following a SU win.
I think Stanford and the points is the way to go here. The Cardinal are averaging over 80 points over their last eight games, which doesn’t bode well for this mediocre Cowboys’ defense (note that OKS’s three point defense ranks 296th in the country!)
Everything points to a “nail biter,” so grab the points.
|03-18-18||Nevada v. Cincinnati -7||75-73||Loss||-102||32 h 55 m||Show|
My 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT is on Cincinnati (6:10 EST).
Cincinnati got by Georgia State 68-53 in its opening round and I think the defensive minded Bearcats will wear down Nevada here as well.
The Wolfpack come in off an exhausting 87-83 OT win over Texas on Friday and I think they suffer a letdown here.
Nevada had to rally from a four-point deficit as well in the extra period, which doesn’t bode well facing this swarming Bearcats’ defense.
Jarron Cumberland had 27 points and 11 boards in Cincinnati’s win over Georgia State. The Bearcats were relentless on the boards, winning the battle 46-26.
I’ll point out as well that Nevada is just 1-3 ATS this year as the underdog, while Cincinnati is a solid 17-13 ATS as the favorite.
I think the Bearcats’ are the much more confident team and as I mentioned above, I believe their elite level defensive play will ultimately prove to be too much for the Wolfpack to handle down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|03-18-18||Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6||Top||86-65||Loss||-103||31 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (5:15 EST).
Texas A&M advanced to this point with a 73-69 victory over Providence, while UNC advanced with an 84-66 win over Lipscomb. While the Aggies’ have looked sharp defensively, they face their stiffest test to date in facing the Tar Heels’ high octane offense.
Texas A&M averages 74.9 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies held the Friars to 43.5 percent shooting and they were led by Admon Gilder with 18 points.
UNC averages 82 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Tar Heels shot 51.7 percent in their opening round victory, while holding the Bison to just 35.9 percent. Kenny Williams led the charge with 18 points, while Theo Pinson added 15 points and ten boards.
I’ll point out that Texas A&M is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 72 points or more in its previous contest, while UNC is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 tournament games.
Beating the Friars is one thing, but the Tar Heels present an entirely different and much more difficult problem. UNC is playing at an elite level across the board right now and I can’t see Texas A&M keeping pace down the stretch.
Lay the points with confidence, play on North Carolina.
|03-18-18||Oregon v. Marquette -5||92-101||Win||100||30 h 8 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Marquette (4:30 EST).
No. 2 Marquette gets ready to battle No. 3 Oregon on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Eagles.
Oregon advanced by knocking off Rider 99-86 in the opening round. The Ducks would go on to hit 58.9 percent from the floor and got 23 points from Victor Bailey Jr. While Oregon managed to cover the 11-point spread in that one, sloppy defensive play like that simply won’t get it done against Marquette today.
Marquette opened its Tournament journey with a solid 67-60 win over a solid Harvard Crimson team. The Golden Eagles hit 43.8 percent from the floor, but they’d go 7 of 16 from range. Keep your eyes on Markus Howard today, as he led the way in the first round victory with 22 points, while also going on to make all nine of his free throw attempts.
I’ll point out that Oregon is just 5-7 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing, while Marquette is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.
I don’t think Oregon is going to be able to slow down Howard. Lay the points.
|03-18-18||Syracuse v. Michigan State -8||55-53||Loss||-105||29 h 53 m||Show|
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Michigan State (2:40 EST).
It’s No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Syracuse in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Spartans.
Syracuse upset TCU 57-52 on Friday, while MSU held on for the 82-78 win over Bucknell.
The Orange come into this one averaging just 67 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 63.9. Tyus Battle was just 3 of 12 for seven points in the win over TCU. Oshae Brissett led the way with 23 points, after posing 23 in the First Four win over Arizona State on Wednesday.
Syracuse comes in tired, while Michigan State likely comes in a bit concerned here after its closer than expected battle against Bucknell.
MSU averages 81 PPG and it concedes 65.2. Note that Michigan State posted a 53 percent shooting percentage in the win over Bucknell, while holding it to just 41.8 percent. Miles Bridges would go on to posting 29 points and he’s now scored at least 17 in three straight games.
I’ll point out as well that Syracuse is just 5-6 ATS as the underdog this year, while Michigan State is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to nine points.
I think the Spartans’ offense finally solves the Orange’s tough defensive zone. Lay the points.
|03-18-18||Butler v. Purdue -3.5||73-76||Loss||-101||26 h 1 m||Show|
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Purdue (12:10 EST).
No. 2 seed Purdue gets ready to battle No. 10 Seed Butler in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Boilermakers.
Butler comes in off a 79-62 win over Arkansas, while Purdue smashed CS Fullerton 74-48. Note that when these teams played in December, it was the Boilermakers that scored the relatively simple 82-67 road win and suffice it to say, I believe everything points to a repeat performance here.
The Bulldogs average 79.1 PPG and they concede 72.5. Butler held Arkansas to 35 percent shooting and leading scorer Kelan Martin was a standout with 27 points.
The Boilermakers average 80.9 PPG and they concede just 65.1. In the win over CS Fullerton, Purdue would hold it to only 36 percent shooting. Isaac Haas was injured and he’ll miss the rest of the tournament, but I look for Carsen Edwards to step up here and take command (Edwards leads the nightly charge with 18.4 PPG.)
I’ll point out as well that Butler is just 4-9 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77plus points per contest, while Purdue is 7-2 ATS this season in the same position.
The loss of Haas is significant in the long run I believe, but in the short-term I fully expect the high-powered Boilermakers to rally and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.
Lay the points, play on Purdue.
|03-17-18||Ohio State v. Gonzaga -3||Top||84-90||Win||100||32 h 52 m||Show|
My 10* NCAA 2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (7:45 EST).
No. 5 Ohio State gets ready to battle No. 4 Gonzaga with a ticket to the Sweet 16 on the line and for a number of different reasons, I think this on favors the Bulldogs.
The Buckeyes managed an 81-73 win over South Dakota State in its first round matchup on Thursday, while Gonzaga also had a much closer than expected battle against UNC Greensboro, eventually pulling way for the 68-64 win. These teams played in the PK-80 Invitational on November 23rd 2017 and Gonzaga would smash Ohio State 86-59.
Ohio State averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 66.7. Keita Bates-Diop had 24 points and 12 boards in the victory over South Dakota State.
Gonzaga averages 84.5 PPG and it concedes just 67.1. Jonathan Wiliams led the charge with 19 points and 13 boards in the win over UNC Greensboro. Note that Williams leads the team with an averages of 13.5 points and 8.3 boards per game.
I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick.
The Bulldogs still have several key players from last year’s team which contributed to the title run. The Buckeyes seem thin when Bates-Diop is not on the floor or if he’s in foul trouble. This one has all the makings of a lop-sided blowout.
Lay the points.
|03-17-18||Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5||75-95||Win||100||29 h 22 m||Show|
My 8* TOP TV PLAY FOR THE WEEKEND is on Kentucky (5:15 EST).
The No. 13 Buffalo Bulls get ready to battle the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.
The Bulls shocked No. 4 seed Arizona 89-68 on Thursday, while Kentucky would hold on for a 78-73 victory over Davidson on the same night.
Buffalo comes into this one averaging 84.8 PPG and conceding 75.9. Wes Clark led the Bulls with 25 points and seven assists in the win over Arizona. CJ Massinburg leads the nightly charge though with an average of 16.9 points and 7.4 boards.
Kentucky enters this one averaging 76.7 PPG and it concedes 70.2. Kevin Knox had 25 points in the victory over Davidson and leads the team overall with 15.6 points and 5.4 boards per game.
Buffalo can’t be taken lightly here, but I don’t think it has an answer for Knox. Also note that the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off an upset win as a five points or larger underdog, while Kentucky is a superb 11-6 ATS in its last 17 when playing on one or less days rest.
I think the Bulls have a letdown here after their big upset victory and I look for tournament experienced Kentucky to step up and take advantage.
Lay the points.
|03-17-18||Rhode Island v. Duke -9.5||62-87||Win||100||27 h 55 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Duke (2:40 EST).
It’s No. 7 Rhode Island against No. 2 Duke in the second round of The Big Dance and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Blue Devils.
Rhode Island comes in off an 83-78 upset win over No. 10 Oklahoma and suffice it to say, I think the Rams are set up for a letdown here. Rhode Island only shot 39 percent, while holding the Sooners to 42 percent. EC Matthews would lead the way with 13 points.
Note that the Rams average 76.4 PPG and they concede 68.2.
The Blue Devils average 85.1 PPG and they concede just 69.6. Duke smashed Iona 89-67 in the first round led by 22 points and seven boards from Marvin Bagley III.
I’ll point out as well that Rhode Island is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and only 1-4 ATS following a SU victory, while Duke is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs.
Duke is playing at an elite level defensively right now, holding teams to just 32 percent from range. The Rams are coming off a horrible shooting game last time out and I can’t see this team keeping pace with the high-flying Blue Devils down the stretch.
Lay the points.
|03-16-18||Florida State v. Missouri||67-54||Loss||-106||110 h 46 m||Show|
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Missouri (9:50 EST).
Florida State lost to Louisville in the ACC Tournament 82-74, while Missouri fell to Georgia 62-60 in the SEC tourney.
The Seminoles play at a quick rate, ranked 26th-fastest in the nation, while averaging 82 PPG. However, FSU is pretty ordinary on the defensive end by allowing 74.5 per contest. FSU was just 9-10 in the ACC and it lost three of its final four. In the loss to Louisville the ‘Noles would allow the Cardinals to hit 50.8 percent from the floor and 10 of 16 from range.
Missouri averages just 73.5 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 68.3. Jontay Porter would lead the Tigers with 20 points and eight boards in the loss to Georgia in the conference tournament game.
I’ll point out though that Missouri is 9-5 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while FSU is already 0-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests.
I think the Tigers’ tough defensive play ultimately proves to be too much for the Seminoles to overcome. Play on Missouri.
|03-16-18||New Mexico State +5.5 v. Clemson||Top||68-79||Loss||-110||109 h 21 m||Show|
My 10* LEGEND is on New Mexico State (9:55 EST).
The 28-5 New Mexico State Aggies get ready to battle the 23-9 Clemson Tigers on Friday night and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I like the underdog to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
Clemson was 11-7 in ACC action, while the Aggies were No. 1 in the WAC in the regular season and then also secured the conference tournament and the automatic bid to The Big Dance.
The Aggies have in fact won the West Coast Conference for five straight years and they enter The Tournament having won six straight. Two players to keep your eyes on today are senior forward Jemerrio Jones, who averages 12.3 points and 18.3 boards per game and guard Zach Lofton, who averages 24.3 points (note that New Mexico State leads the WAC and is ranked fifth in the country in opposing field-goal percentage (39.2 percent) and rebounding margin (9.1.)
The Tigers are back in the big dance for the first time in seven years and advanced to the SEC tourney semi’s before falling to eventual champion Virginia. Clemson is also a top tier defensive school, ranked 34th in the nation opposing field goal percentage (41.) Marcquise Reed leads the nightly charge with 15.9 points.
I’ll point out though that New Mexico State is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Clemson is just 1-3 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing.
The Aggies are filled with experienced seniors and they have the defense to match pace with their ACC opponent tonight. As mentioned off the top, everything points to a closer than expected battle.
Grab the points, play on New Mexico State.
|03-16-18||Kansas State +1.5 v. Creighton||69-59||Win||100||106 h 57 m||Show|
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Kansas State (6:50 EST).
Kansas State comes in off an 83-67 loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Semifinals, while Creighton lost to Providence 72-68 in the Big East Quarterfinals.
K-State was 22-11 overall this year, but it struggled against Kansas in the conference tournament, letting the Wildcats hit 48.3 percent, while hitting a still decent 46.7 percent itself. Kanas State though would get outscored from range 33-6. Makol Mawien was a bright spot in the setback with 29 points.
Note that the Wildcats enter this one averaging 72.4 PPG this season, while conceding 67.9.
The Bluejays average 84.3 PPG and they concede 74.2. Creighton finished 22-11 on the year, but it struggled in its loss to Providence, hitting only 42.4 percent from the floor, including only 26.1 percent from range (also made 13 turnovers.) Leading the way in a losing cause was Marcus Foster with 19, while Davion Mintz added 14.
I’ll point out though that Kansas State has in fact done pretty well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 neutral site affairs and just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing on seven or more days rest.
The Blue Jays’ offense struggled in its last game, which I believe spells doom against this aggressive Wildcats defense.
I’m banking on that being the difference maker tonight. Grab the points.
|03-16-18||Butler -1.5 v. Arkansas||79-62||Win||100||102 h 18 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Butler (3:10 EST).
Butler was 9-9 in Big East action this year and it lost to Villanova in the semi-finals of the big East Tournament, while Arkansas was 10-8 in SEC play and it would bow out to Tennessee in the semi’s of its conference tourney.
The Bulldogs average 79 PPG and they concede 72.8. Kelan Martin was a bright spot in the loss to Villanova as he’d go on to post 30 points over two tournament contests. Butler has struggled down the stretch, with only three wins out of its last nine games.
Arkansas averages 81.1 PPG and it concedes 75.5. Darryl Macon had 19 points in the loss to the Vols in the conference tournament.
The Razorback have won four of their last six and they were 5-2 against ranked foes this year, including victories over Auburn and Tennessee.
Regardless of how these teams finished this year though, I think that Butler has the advantage here. Experience and depth can’t be discounted in this situation.
Arkansas has a tendency to give up points in bunches and combined with their superior defense, I like the Bulldogs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
|03-16-18||Providence v. Texas A&M -3.5||69-73||Win||100||99 h 23 m||Show|
My 8* PEFECT STORM is on Texas A&M (12:15 EST).
It’s the Big East against the SEC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Aggies.
Providence enters off a 76-66 setback to Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Finals, while Texas A&M fell 71-70 to Alabama in the second-round of the SEC tournament.
Providence averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 72.7. The Friars were on the bubble heading into the Big East tournament, but after a run which saw them fall 76-66 in the final to Villanova, they’d go on to finally punch their ticket to The Big Dance. Alpha Diallo was a bright spot in the losing cause with 22 points and ten boards.
Texas A&M averages 75 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies lost their conference tournament game on a last second three-point shot. It was their third straight game which was decided by two points or less. Note though that Texas A&M has averaged 78.4 PPG and conceded just 69 in all neutral court affairs this year.
Additionally I’ll point out that Providence is a poor 3-13 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games, while Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after five or six days of rest.
The Friars are 203rd in the nation in shooting, which doesn’t bode well facing this tough Aggies defense in my opinion (note that they’re 16th in the country in defensive FG percentage).
Lay the points, play on Texas A&M.
|03-15-18||Buffalo v. Arizona -9||Top||89-68||Loss||-106||84 h 25 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Arizona (9:40 EST).
Buffalo finished 26-8, while Arizona was 27-7.
The Bulls snagged the 13th seed in the South Region after winning the MAC Tournament Final over Toledo 76-66 last weekend. Buffalo went on to shoot 45.9 percent from the floor, while holding Toledo to just 36.8 percent. Wes Clark was a standout in the victory with 26 points, five boards, three assists and four steals. Buffalo averages 84.8 PPG and it concedes 75.9.
Arizona averages 80.9 PPG and it concedes 71.2. Deandre Ayton had 32 points, 18 boards, two assists and a block in the Wildcats’ 75-61 Pac-12 Tournament Finals win over USC on Saturday.
Buffalo had a great defensive performance against the Rockets, but Arizona is a clearly a completely different “animal.” Led by Ayton, the Wildcats are firing on all cylinders and I look for their depth and overall talent to be too much for Buffalo to overcome in the end.
Lay the points with confidence, play on Arizona.
|03-15-18||San Diego State v. Houston -4||65-67||Loss||-105||82 h 25 m||Show|
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Houston (7:20 EST).
It’s No. 11 San Diego State against No. 6 Houston in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars.
I had a play on Houston in its loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Conference Tournament final, as it would go on to easily cover the spread in the one point loss.
Brian Dutcher has guided SDSU back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. SDSU enters on a nine-game win streak, including a win over New Mexico in the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid.
Five starters average double digits for SDSU, led by Malik Pope with 12.9 per night. The Aztecs are also stout defensively in conceding just 67.9 PPG.
The Cougars finished 26-7 and they’ll be looking to make some noise in the Tournament, their first time back in eight years. Rob Gray had 17 points in the 56-55 loss to the Bearcats. Gray leads the nightly charge with 18.5 points and 4.5 assists per night.
Houston leads its conference in three-point shooting at 38.7 percent and it’s second in the AAC in scoring at 77.4 per night.
I think it’s worthy to note as well that the Aztecs are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games when playing the role of underdog, while the Cougars are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs.
SDSU has a tough defense, but I think it’ll struggle to keep pace with the high-flying Cougars. Lay the points.
|03-15-18||NC State v. Seton Hall -2||83-94||Win||100||79 h 15 m||Show|
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Seton Hall (4:30 EST).
The No. 9 NC State Wolfpack get ready to battle the No. 8 Seton Hall Pirates in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Pirates.
Coach Kevin Keatts of NC State is back in the Tournament for a third straight year, after taking North Carolina-Wilmington to the Tourney the previous two seasons.
Keatts guided the Wolfpack to wins over Duke, UNC and Wake Forest in his first year at NC State.
Allerik Freeman leads the nightly charge for NC State with 15.4 points, while swingman Torin Dorn averages 13.8 PPG.
The Pirates are back in The Dance for a third straight year and would lose to Butler in the conference tournament quarterfinals. Seton Hall is led by Khadeen Carrington with 17.8 PPG to lead the team.
It’s interesting to note that these teams both played Louisville this year and each would go on to defeat the Cardinals (NC State won 76-69 and Seton Hall held on for the 79-77 victory.)
NC State has some nice wins this year, but Seton Hall’s experience and depth will prove to be too much for the contented Wolfpack to handle down the stretch in my opinion. Experience and depth.
Play on Seton Hall.
|03-14-18||BYU v. Stanford -2.5||83-86||Win||100||31 h 1 m||Show|
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (10:00 EST).
BYU was 24-10 this year and 11-7 in the WCC. The Cougars beat St. Mary’s in the conference tournament before getting smoked 74-54 to Gonzaga in the championship game.
Stanford got out to a slow start and finished 18-15 overall, but it was a decent 11-7 in league action, finishing in third (which wasn’t good enough for an NCAA bid in the Pac 12 this year.)
In the loss to Gonzaga, BYU was led by Yoeli Childs, who had 20 points, after scoring 33 against St. Mary’s in the semis.
The Cardinal fell 88-77 to UCLA in the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 Conference Tournament. As mentioned off the top though Stanford got out to the slow start to the season, but it was better than expected through conference play.
I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 8-17-2 ATS in its last 27 against teams with winning straight up records, while Stanford is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd and a superb 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
I like the Cardinal to maintain their end of season momentum and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
Lay the points.
|03-14-18||Washington +1 v. Boise State||77-74||Win||101||31 h 0 m||Show|
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (10:00 EST).
Boise State lost to Utah State 78-75 in the MWC Tourney, while Washington fell 69-66 in OT to Oregon State in its conference tournament.
Boise State comes into this one averaging 78.3 PPG, while conceding 68.8. The Broncos strength all season has been their tough defensive play, but they’ve now given up 78 and 87 points in their last two games respectively. Lexus Williams had 24 points in Boise State’s latest setback.
Washington averages 74.3 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies struggled in the loss to the Beavers hitting only 38.3 percent. Matisse Thybulle was a bright spot in the setback with 16 points.
Boise State had a decent season, but I have a hard time seeing it hanging with battle tested Pac 12 Huskies, who were 10-8 in league play and 15-4 at home.
The Broncos defense has been exposed and I like Washington to step up and take advantage.
|03-14-18||Arizona State -1.5 v. Syracuse||56-60||Loss||-105||61 h 13 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Arizona State (9:10 EST).
Arizona State was upset 97-85 by Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, while the Orange fell 78-59 to UNC in the second round of the ACC Tourney.
The Sun Devils come into this one averaging 90.2 PPG, while conceding 83.5. The Buffs hit 13 of 21 from range in the Conference tournament to take out Arizona State, which would go on to hit 48 percent itself overall from the floor. Remy Martin was a standout in the losing cause with 20 points, while Shannon Evans II, Kodi Justice and Tra Holder each posted 14.
Note that Arizona State has averaged 90.2 points and conceded 85.4 in all neutral court affairs this season.
Syracuse did just enough to squeak into the First Four, but note that the Orange have averaged only 66 points, while conceding 70.2 in all neutral court games this season. Syracuse struggled offensively against the Tar Heels, shooting only 31.7 percent from the floor. Oshae Brissett had 20 points in the loss, while Tyus Battle added 15.
I’ll point out as well that ASU has done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 10-1 ATS in its last non-conference contests and 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 following an ATS loss, while Syracuse is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs.
Both teams backed their way into the First Four and each has more questions than answers right now. I simply have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged Orange keeping pace with the high-flying Sun Devils down the stretch.
And when taking into account the strong ATS trends listed above as well, the correct call in this matchup is indeed on ASU.
|03-14-18||Temple +10 v. Penn State||57-63||Win||100||29 h 1 m||Show|
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Temple (8:00 EST).
Temple is on the road to visit Penn State in the first round of the NIT and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I think we’re going to see a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
The Nittany Lions were 21-13 overall and 9-9 in league action, while the Owls were 17-15 and 8-10 in conference play. PSU fell to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, while Temple lost to Wichita State in its conference tournament.
The Owls beat the Shockers at home on February 1st, but they’d lose to Wichita State 89-81 in the conference tournament. Quinton Rose was a strong point in that setback with 25 points, while Josh Brown added 15. Temple comes into this one averaging 70.3 PPG and conceding 70.7.
Penn State averages 74.6 PPG and it concedes 66.9. The Nittany Lions got two wins in the conference tournament, but three straight loss to end the year, including a 76-64 defeat to Nebraska in their regular season finale, ultimately sunk their hopes for a NCAA bid. Shep Garner was a bright with 33 points in the loss to the Boilermakers.
I think it’s interesting to note though that Temple is 13-9 ATS this year against schools with winning records, while Penn State is just 10-11 ATS in the same position.
I think Fran Dunphy will have his team prepared for this one. Penn State is the better overall team, but it comes injured (Watkins) and everything points to an upset here. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end.
Play on the Owls.
|03-13-18||Northern Kentucky +7 v. Louisville||58-66||Loss||-105||10 h 12 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Northern Kentucky (7:00 EST).
Northern Kentucky finished the year at 22-9, while Louisville was 20-13.
The Cardinals failed to make The Big Dance and I think they have a bit of a mental letdown here because of it.
Northern Kentucky also aspired to be included in the NCAA Tournament, but its hopes were dashed in the Horizon League Tournament.
The Norse won the regular season title and were upset in the first round by Cleveland State. With some extra time off to recover from that disappointment, I think Northern Kentucky comes in focused and hungry here. One player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is forward Drew McDonald, who had 15 double-doubles over his last 21 games.
Reports have it that many of the Cardinals players voiced objections over even playing in the NIT this season. Louisville comes in completely dejected here after losing to Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
The Rick Pitino scandal still weighs heavily upon the program and the fans and I think the Norse are going to be able to take advantage.
Note the Northern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS this year following an ATS loss, while the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 following a SU setback.
I’m not going to call for the outright upset, but everything points to a “nail-biter.”
Grab the points.
|03-11-18||Houston +4.5 v. Cincinnati||55-56||Win||100||6 h 21 m||Show|
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Houston (4:30 EST).
Note that these teams split a pair of games this year, with each winning on its own floor.
Houston advanced with a 77-74 win over Wichita State as a five-point underdog. I had the Shockers in that one. I don’t normally ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next, but this is a completely different situation in that each contest at this point of the tournament needs to be looked at separately in my opinion.
I was wrong about the Cougars yesterday, but I think they’re going to carry their momentum over here against this shaky Cincinnati Bearcats team, which comes in off a 70-60 win over Memphis to advance.
Houston averages 78.1 PPG and it concedes 65.2. The Cougars are playing with added incentive today as well, as a win today will guarantee them a spot in The Big Dance. Rob Gray was unstoppable against the Shockers with 33 points (26.7 tournament average.)
This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I believe the Bearcats will come in “gassed” here. Cincinnati was down 42-29 at halftime against the Tigers, but they then rallied for a big second half come from behind victory. The defense shone in the end by allowing Memphis to hit just 35.2 percent from the floor, but all of that energy expended to claw back is going to come back to bite the Bearcats in the end in my opinion. Jarron Cumberland was a standout with 18 points in victory.
As I mentioned off the top, I am very aware of being careful not to ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next. As I’ve demonstrated above though, in a tournament scenario like this, being “flexible” with my approach over the years has led to greater and long-term success and that’s my approach with this one.
The Bearcats are the second best defensive team in the nation, but the Cougars are no slouch on that end of the court either. Houston has the clear advantage offensively as well.
Houston’s already beaten Cincinnati this year, so it obviously won’t be intimidated. With nothing to lose, I like the Cougars to at the very least take this one right down to the wire.
Grab the points, play on Houston.
|03-11-18||Kentucky v. Tennessee +1||Top||77-72||Loss||-100||5 h 59 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (2:00 EST).
The 23-10 Kentucky Wildcats get ready to battle the 25-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament Championship and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols.
Kentucky has beaten Georgia and Alabama to advance, while Tennessee has gotten the better of Mississippi State and Arkansas to reach this point.
PJ Washington had 18 points for the Wildcats in their 62-49 victory over Georgia, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 15 points and nine boards. Gilegeous-Alexander had double figures again in the 86-63 win over Alabama.
The Vols barely got by Mississippi State 61-58 on Friday, before five players scored in double figures for the convincing 84-66 win over Arkansas on Saturday. Lamonte Turner was a standout with nine points, four assists and two steals off the bench.
I’ll point out that Kentucky has struggled in this spot of late for bettors by going just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a win by more than 20 points, while Tennessee has excelled in this position by going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater.
Ultimately I think Tennessee’s depth will prove to be too much for Kentucky to keep up to down the stretch. Play on the Volunteers.
|03-10-18||Arkansas v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||66-84||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (3:30 EST).
The 23-10 Arkansas Razorbacks get ready to battle the 24-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC semi-final on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols.
Tennessee received a double-bye to open the tournament and then came out and survived a scare in a 61-58 win over Mississippi State on Friday. Clearly the Vols won’t be taking anything for granted this evening after that closer than expected victory:
“We were fortunate,” Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes admitted afterwards. “This time of year, you just advance. Not a lot of good things, other than the fact that we won the game when you look at it from our perspective.”
The Razorbacks come in off back-to-back Conference Tournament victories, but I think they have a letdown here after their upset win over Florida yesterday.
Note that the Volunteers also play with the added motivation of “revenge” this afternoon after Arkansas upset Tennessee earlier in the season.
I look for the Vols to shake off the rust and to avenge the earlier setback to the now weary Razorbacks. Play on Tennessee.
|03-10-18||Houston v. Wichita State -4||77-74||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wichita State (3:30 EST).
Houston comes in off an 84-56 win over UCF, while Wichita State enters off an 89-81 win over Temple to advance. Note that these teams split a pair of games in the regular season.
The Cougars average 78 PPG and they concede 65.2. The Cougars have won nine of their last ten. Devin Davis was a standout in the win over the Golden Knights with 16 points, while Rob Gray added 15.
The Shockers average 83.3 PPG and they concede 71.2. Landry Shamet had 24 points in the win over the Owls. Previous to only scoring 61 points in its regular season finale setback to Cincinnati, note that Wichita State had averaged 85.9 PPG over its previous seven outings.
Houston got the better of the Shockers the last time the teams played, but I think the Cougars come out flat here against this battle tested Wichita State team.
Lay the points with confidence, play on the Shockers.
|03-09-18||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion||57-49||Loss||-110||6 h 12 m||Show|
This is an 8* LATE BREAKING PERFECT STORM is on Old Dominion (4:00 EST).
No. 3 seed WKU gets ready to take on No. 2 seed ODU on Friday afternoon in the semi-final of the Conference USA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Monarchs.
WKU smashed UAB 98-70 on Thursday, putting up 52 points in the second half to advance to this point. Justin Johnson led the way in the victory with 19 points and ten boards.
ODU had a more difficult time in its 62-58 win over Louisiana Tech and it won’t be taking anything for granted today because of the closer than expected call. The Monarchs hit 40.8 percent from the floor and went 16 of 19 from the charity stripe. BJ Stith was a bright spot in the victory with 22 points and 12 boards.
I’ll point out though that Western Kentucky is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 98 points or more in its previous contest, while ODU is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs.
I think the Hilltoppers have a predictable letdown here after their big win last night and I expect the Monarchs to step up and take full advantage.
Play on Old Dominion.
|03-09-18||Georgia v. Kentucky -4.5||Top||49-62||Win||100||20 h 6 m||Show|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Kentucky (3:30 EST).
Kentucky was 10-8 in conference play and earned a bye to make it to this point of the SEC Tournament. While the Wildcats missed out on a fourth straight SEC regular season title, the team still has a legitimate shot at taking the conference tournament. Note that Kentucky owns a 43-11 mark in quarterfinal action in the SEC tournament.
UK won’t be taking anything for granted here either as it narrowly defeated the Bulldogs at home back in December, a game in which Kevin Knox was held to an uncharacteristically poor 2-of-10 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a bright spot in the near loss with 21 points.
Georgia is a good team, but it comes in “gassed” here, beating Vanderbilt 78-62 on Wednesday, before an exhausting 62-60 win over Missouri yesterday.
Additionally I’ll point out that Georgia is just 2-4 ATS this year in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent, while Kentucky is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 neutral court affairs.
Kentucky is the deeper and much “fresher” team and everything points to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Lay the points with confidence.
|03-09-18||George Mason v. St. Joe's -5.5||49-68||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on St. Joseph’s (2:30 EST).
This is the second quarter final of the A-10 Tournament. George Mason held on for an 80-75 win over UMass yesterday, while St. Joseph’s earned a bye to make it to this point.
The Patriots were only 1.5 point favorites yesterday and while the team did manage both the SU and ATS victory, it was anything but easy. Tied 39-39 at the half, it was a nail-biter until the final moments.
Suffice it to say, I expect the Patriots to come in here a little flat footed after their big win just last night.
George Mason only shot 35.9 percent from the floor and got 21 points from Otis Livingston II in the satisfying victory.
St. Joe’s has only lost once in its last seven games and it just happens to be to these very Patriots. Suffice it to say, I think its payback time! George Mason rallied for the 79-76 road win over the Hawks, who have since recovered their form.
In their most recent 78-70 win over La Salle, the Hawks hit 48.1 percent from the floor and also held a 39-31 advantage on the glass. James Demery was a standout with 18 points off the bench (note that Demery has posted 39 points and 13 boards over his last two games.)
I’ll point out that George Mason is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as the underdog, while St. Joe’s is 5-2 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent (it’s also 3-0 ATS the last two years when playing with five or six days rest.)
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Hawks.
|03-08-18||Baylor v. West Virginia -4.5||65-78||Win||100||27 h 38 m||Show|
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on West Virginia (9:30 EST).
The 18-13 Baylor Bears get ready to battle the 22-9 WVU Mountaineers in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.
If recent history is any precedence, then WVU certainly has to be feeling confident here as it posted the 57-54 victory in the first meeting between the schools and then a more convincing 71-60 win in the second this year.
Baylor averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 69.5. Jo Lual-Acull Jr. was a standout in both losses to the Mountaineers for the Bears, posting double-doubles in each setback, including 16 points and ten boards in the second. Baylor comes in with zero momentum though after losing three of its last four.
WVU averages 80.4 PPG and it concedes 68.9. The Mountaineers will be eager to return to form here after an 87-79 OT road loss to a determined Longhorns team in their regular season finale. Keep your eyes on Daxter Miles Jr, who averaged 13.5 points over his final six games of the season.
I’ll point out as well that Baylor is already just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while WVU is 4-2 ATS this season off a loss against a conference rival.
The Mountaineers have been particularly efficient against the Bears defensively this year, limiting them to 35.8 percent and 32.8 percent shooting over the first two meetings.
Five players average double digits for West Virginia and it’s that depth which I believe will once again prove to be too much for the Baylor to overcome.
Lay the points, play on West Virginia.
|03-08-18||North Carolina -5.5 v. Miami-FL||82-65||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is in North Carolina (9:30 EST).
UNC enters off a 78-59 destruction of Syracuse in the opener of the tournament and it’ll be out for some revenge here after losing at home to the Hurricanes just over a week ago on a 30-foot 3-point shot from Ja’Quan Newton.
The Tar Heels looked sharp in the win over the Orange, limiting Syracuse to just 33.3 percent shooting and suffice it to say, I believe the team carries that momentum over here.
Kenny Williams was a standout in the victory with 17 points, while Theo Pinson would add 16 points, 11 boards and five assists. UNC comes into this one averaging 83 points and conceding 74.
Miami averages 74.5 points and it concedes 67.6. The Hurricanes had to hold on for dear life in their 69-68 home victory over Virginia Tech on March 3rd and the extra time off here won’t help in my opinion.
Ultimately I feel that UNC’s depth and superior offense will prove to be too much for the Hurricanes to handle down the stretch. Play on the Tar Heels.
|03-08-18||Louisville v. Virginia -7.5||Top||58-75||Win||100||18 h 46 m||Show|
My 10* ACC TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR is on Virginia (12:00 EST).
Louisville pulled off the slight upset in yesterday’s 82-74 victory over FSU and it’s reward is a date against the No. 1 team in the Tournament and also the nation.
And Virginia will hardly be taking anything for granted here, as it would need a last second three-point shot from De’Andre Hunter to secure the 67-66 road win in January, after also taking the matchup at home earlier in the season.
I think the Cardinals come in “gassed” here after their big win over the Seminoles, in which they roared out to a 41-22 halftime lead and then never looked back. Louisville averages 76.6 PPG and it concedes 79.3. Deng Adel leads the nightly charge with 15.4 PPG.
The Cavaliers have offensive talent, they simply choose to play at an extremely slow pace. In fact they’re ranked dead last the country in possessions per game at only 62.1.
Virginia gets the job done though with its smothering defensive play, also leading the NCAA by conceding only 52.8 PPG.
I think the Cavaliers come in focused and I believe the Cardinals will come in flat. Ultimately I feel that the quick turnaround will be just too much for Louisville to handle.
This line could easily be a lot larger, play on Virginia.
|03-07-18||Oregon State v. Washington +2||69-66||Loss||-105||30 h 47 m||Show|
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (9:00 EST).
Oregon State is 15-15 overall, but won two of its final three regular season games, including a 92-67 victory over Washington State in its finale.
Tres Tinkle, Ethan Thompson and Stephen Thompson Jr. lead a Beavers team which has shot 54.5 percent from the floor over its last three games.
First year Huskies’ coach Mike Hopkins was named the Pac 12 Coach of the Year, while Matisse Thybulle earned 2018 Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors.
From a trend based stand point, this one favors the Huskies for sure though, as note that Oregon State is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning straight up record and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory, while Washington is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a straight up/against the spread setback.
These teams have split a pair of games this year, with each contest being decided by a single bucket (OSU won 97-94 in double OT in Corvallis, while WU won 79-77 on March 1st.)
Everything once again points to a “nail-biter,” so I’m going to grab the points.
|03-07-18||California +8.5 v. Stanford||58-76||Loss||-110||26 h 17 m||Show|
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on California (5:30 EST).
Cal is a horrible team, it finished 2-16 in conference play. Most recently the Golden Bears fell 66-54 to Arizona on Saturday.
Justice Sueing was a bright spot in that one with 14 points. The Golden Bears average 90.8 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.7 points per 100 possessions. One thing Cal has done well though is forcing turnovers, ranked third in the conference by forcing 20.3 percent on defensive possessions.
Stanford comes in a tad complacent here after winning four of its final five regular season games, including a thrilling 84-83 road effort at Arizona State in its finale. Stanford ranks in the top five in the conference on both ends of the floor per 100 possessions.
I’ll point out though that Cal is 6-2 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Stanford is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten tournament games and a horrible 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest.
Cal got the better of Stanford already this season and it’s not going to simply roll over here either. I expect a competitive battle, so grab the points.
|03-07-18||Arizona State v. Colorado +7||85-97||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Colorado (3:00 EST).
This one is being played from the T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday afternoon.
ASU opened up its season by going 12-0, but once conference action hit it would “tank,” going 8-10. The Sun Devils are now squarely on the bubble as the Pac 12 Conference Tournament gets underway.
The Sun Devils come in off a crushing 84-83 defeat at home to Stanford in their regular season finale as well. Tra Holder was a stand out with 19 points, while Shannon Evans added 17.
ASU averages 107.5 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 105.6 points per 100 possessions.
Colorado comes in under the radar here in my opinion as it also struggled down the stretch by losing four of its last five games, including a 64-54 setback at Utah in its regular season finale.
McKinley Wright had 16 points in the losing cause, while Lucas Siewert added 11. Colorado averages 99.1 points per 100 possessions, but it is able to stay competitive with its No. 1 effective field goal percentage defense in the conference.
I’ll point out as well that Arizona State is just 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning straight up record, while Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss.
The pressure is on the Sun Devils and I think the Buffs relish the role of spoiler here. I believe this one is decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
|03-06-18||Wake Forest +4 v. Syracuse||64-73||Loss||-105||27 h 34 m||Show|
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wake Forest (7:00 EST).
The 11-19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons get set to battle the 19-12 Syracuse Orange in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.
Wake looks to avenge a 78-70 road loss to Syracuse on February 11th. Syracuse shot 46 percent from the floor in that one, including 6 of 12 from range. Tyus Battle led the way for the Orange with 34 points.
The Demon Deacons shot 43.6 percent in the losing cause, including 44 percent from range.
Both teams backed their way into the tournament, with Wake losing three of four and ‘Cuse dropping four of six. Syracuse scored a big win over Clemson in its home finale and I think it looks poised for classic letdown here.
Wake Forest averages 73.6 PPG and it concedes 74.4. Bryant Crawford leads the nightly charge with 16.7 points, 2.9 boards and 4.8 assists per game.
Syracuse averages 67.6 PPG and it concedes 64.1. Battle averages 20 points and three boards per game, while Frank Howard adds 15.2 points, 3.4 boards and five assists per night.
I’m expecting an all out war until the end and in a contest which I do indeed envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
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