Cappers Sports Picks

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs as a three-point favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. I think the value is on the underdog. While the Chiefs have an edge offensively, the Bucs defense is one of the best in the league and going against Tom Brady in big games is rarely a winning proposition. We can also note that Tampa Bay has home field advantage, and even though there will be a limited amount of fans at the game, at least they are very familiar with the stadium. 

Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

In addition to the Bucs to cover the number, I also think they'll keep it relatively low-scoring and see value on the under. 

8* play on UNDER.

OHIO STATE VS ALABAMA CFP CHAMPIONSHIP GAME BEST OF THE BEST

The Alabama Crimson Tide limited Notre Dame to 14 points in their semi-finals matchup, but here they'll face a much more accomplished offense in Ohio State. 

The Buckeyes put up 49 points on Clemson, and QB Juston Fields completed 22-of-28 passes for 385 yards and six TDs against only one INT. Bama is an elite team, but it ranks only 76th in the nation against the pass. The Buckeyes are even worse at 103rd in the country, and they gave up 400 passing yards to Tigers' Trevor Lawrence in the win last week. I think we'll see both QBs air it out and drive up the score. 

This is a massive number, but the bookies just can't make it big enough IMO.

10* MAX BET on OVER. 

BROWNS @ STEELERS 8* NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND BOOKIE BREAKER TOTAL

These two teams clashed only a week ago, a must-win game for Cleveland who also ended up winning 24-22. The Steelers rested several starters, among them Ben Roethlisberger, center Maurkice Pouncey, linebacker T.J. Watt and defensive tackle Cam Heyward. They will be back for this contest. 

Cleveland is 9-7 to the over on the season, but I think this will be a relatively low-scoring affair. The Browns know they'll have to run the football as they're unlikely to have much success against the Steelers No. 3 pass defense, and I think both teams will chew a decent amount of clock during their drives. 

Both teams rank below league average for pace, and three of the last four head-to-head meetings have gone under the total. 

8* play on UNDER. 

BEARS @ SAINTS 8* TOTAL

New Orleans is clearly the superior football team in this matchup, but this is just too many points to give up in a playoff game. 

The Bears might look like they are stumbling into the playoffs after getting humiliated by Green Bay in the regular-season finale, but they had won three straight prior to that. Sure, they were beating up on mostly unmotivated teams (Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville), but so did the Saints as well as they closed out the reg season on a 2-0 run (against Minnesota and Carolina). 

These two teams clashed back in November, a game the Saints won 26-23 in overtime. We can also note that Chicago had Nick Foles at quarterback in that one, and they've looked much better of late with Mitch Trubisky back under center. 

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite, and I see this being a one-score game. 

I also think it will be low-scoring. Under is 7-2 in Bears last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 12-5 in Bears last 17 games as a road underdog. Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

8* play on UNDER.

WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR ~ RAMS @ SEAHAWKS 10* TOTAL

This is a low number, but note that NFL games with a total lower than 45 points went 37-17 (68.5%) to the under this season. 

As for these two teams, the Rams are 12-4 to the under on the season and they rank No. 1 for scoring defense and passing yards allowed while Seattle's defense has quietly been one of the best in the league over the last month. Through their last four games, the Seahawks have allowed, 3, 15, 9 and 23 points.

In the two regular season meetings between these two teams we saw 39 and 29 points scored. I expect this to be another low-scoring affair, especially as Rams' QB Jared Goff won't be 100% if he even suits up at all. 

10* game of the year top play on UNDER. 

*MAJOR WAGER ALERT* NFL TOTAL GAME OF THE YEAR - REG SEASON 

The Cincinnati Bengals offense has come alive here at the end of the season, putting up a combined 64 points in back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Houston. Quarterback Brandon Allen threw for a career-high 371 yards and two touchdown in a 37-31 win at Houston last week. 

Their defense remains a liability though, and here they'll face a Ravens side that has averaged 37 ppg through a four-game winning streak. 

The Ravens need a win to have a shot at a playoff berth, so there's no question whether they will bring it or not while the Bengals would love nothing more than to play spoiler for their division-rival. 

10* play on OVER. 

Big game from the NFC West with division-leading 10-4 Seattle Seahawks hosting 2nd-placed 9-5 Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams were humiliated in a loss to the at that point winless NY Jets last week, quite possibly getting caught looking ahead for this game. Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. They are also  8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC West rivals.

The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC West and have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four overall. Last week they put up just 250 yards of total offense in a 20-15 win over Washington, and here they'll face a Rams defense that ranks #1 in the NFL for total defense.

In addition to the Rams covering the spread, I also like this game to go under the total.

Under is 9-2 in Rams last 11 games overall. Under is 6-2 in Rams last 8 vs. NFC. Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games overall. Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.

8* play on UNDER.

VIKES @ SAINTS CHRISTMAS DAY NFL 10* TOP PLAY

The Saints' QB Drew Brees is less than 100% dealing with rib and lung injuries and he'll be without a major weapon in All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas who is on injured reserve. I think they (much like the Vikes) will run the ball a lot which will eat a lot of time off the clock. 

The Saints defense is elite and ranks fourth against the run, bad news for the Vikes who go as running back Dalvin Cook goes. 

Under is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 road games. Under is 7-2 in Saints last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

10* play on UNDER. 

HAWAII VS HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL 8* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Hawaii is a tough team to beat on the island. On the mainland, not so much, and the Rainbow Warriors can't be too excited about this traveling spot as they head to Frisco, Texas to take on the Houston Cougars in the New Mexico Bowl on Christmas Eve.

Note that Hawaii averaged 26.0 ppg on the season overall, but only 17.0 ppg on the road while allowing 28.0 ppg. Houston put up 38.0 ppg through its road games.

The Cougars have lost their last three bowl games, which I think will make the players all the more excited to claim this one. 

Under is 4-1 in Rainbow Warriors last 5 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.

In addition to Houston covering the spread, I also think we'll see this game go under the total. 

Under is 4-1 in Rainbow Warriors last 5 games as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

SUPER EARLY 8* BUCS @ FALCONS NFL TOTAL

The Atlanta Falcons have been held to 17 points or fewer in three of their last four games, all going under the total. They are 10-2 to the under in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and in this game, they'll face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team with an elite defense. Last time out, the Bucs held Minnesota to 14 points and fewer than 300 total yards. While Tampa Bay is capable of putting up big numbers, keep in mind that Atlanta's defense has improved a lot under interim coach Raheem Morris.

8* play on UNDER. 

PATRIOTS @ RAMS THURSDAY NIGHT NFL TOTAL

The New England Patriots are back in contention for a wild card after winning four of their last five games. Last week they put a 45-0 beating on the Chargers in Inglewood and wisely decided to stay on the West Coast for this Thursday night contest against the LA Rams. 

Still, playing on the road on a short week is never easy, and this will be a much tougher matchup against a Rams side that will be looking to avenge a 13-3 loss to the Pats in Super Bowl LIII. The Pats are not the dominant force they used to be, and I sense a possible letdown game after last week's rout.

Additionally, note that while the Patriots defense has stepped up its game in recent weeks, they're still mediocre at best on offense while the Rams rank top three in the NFL for both total offense and total defense. 

Rams are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

In addition to the Rams winning and covering the spread, I also like the under. 

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as an underdog. Under is 7-2 in Rams last 9 games overall. Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as a home favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

FAU @ SOUTHERN MISS THURSDAY NIGHT 8* NCAAF BOOKIE BU$TER

The Florida Atlantic Owls are 6-1 to the under on the season and they own one of the best defensive units in the nation, allowing only 299.6 yards of total offense per game. 

Tonight they'll face a Southern Miss team that has put up a total of only 27 points through its last two games and each of the Golden Eagles' last four games has gone under the total. 

While the Owls are elite on the defensive side of the ball, they clearly lack an explosive offense and are averaging only 18.4 points per game. While this is a low number for a college football game, it's set this low for a reason and I still like the under in this matchup.

8* play on UNDER. 

WASHINGTON @ PITTSBURGH 8* NFL BOOKIE BU$TER

The undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging 28.8 points per game (6th) on the season, despite ranking only 21st for total offense. They tend to play down to their competition and have scored a total of only 46 points through their last two games, against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars and a shorthanded Baltimore team.

Washington meanwhile is coming off a 41-16 win over Dallas, but such outings have been few and far between for this squad who averages only 21.9 ppg on the season. 

Both defenses rank in the top five of the NFL for total defense, and the Steelers are #1 for points allowed giving up only 17.1 ppg. 

Under is 7-1 in Football Team last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 37-14-1 in Steelers last 52 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

8* play on Washington Football Team. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL) - PATRIOTS @ CHARGERS 10* TOP PLAY

The Los Angeles Chargers have an impressive QB in Justin Herbert, but if we exclude a 34-28 win over the Jets on Nov 22, then the Chargers have put up an average of only 21.3 ppg over their last three games. Perhaps teams are starting to figure out how to stop the rookie, and I think Herbert and the rest of Chargers offense will face a tough test here against New England. 

Sure, the Pats offense is not what it used to be with Brady under center, but you better believe Belichick will make sure their defense is still serviceable. Note that they were outgained 298-179 in total yards by Arizona last week, but still managed to grind out a 20-17 victory. Over their last three games, the Patriots have now allowed an average of 20.3 ppg while their offense is putting up just 20.8 ppg on the season. 

The Chargers are 3-8 SU on the season, 2-3 at home. Under is 11-2 in Patriots last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 14-6 in Patriots last 20 vs. a team with a losing record overall. Under is 13-6 in Chargers last 19 home games. 

10* play on UNDER. 

COLTS @ TEXANS 8* NFL BOOKIE BOMBER TOTAL

The Indianapolis Colts took a 45-26 beating by Tennessee last week. The Titans did most of their damage on the ground though, and I think the Colts' defense will bounce back here against a much less dangerous opponent in the Houston Texans. 

While the Texans put up 41 points in a win over Detroit last week, in this matchup they'll face a Colts defense that ranks sixth for total defense, fifth against the pass, and seventh against the run. 

Houston has virtually no running game, and I expect the Colts to be able to slow down Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson effectively. Additionally, note that Houston wide receiver Will Fuller (53 receptions, 879 yards, and eight touchdowns) has been suspended for six games under NFL's PED policy. 

8* play on UNDER. 

SEAHAWKS @ EAGLES 8* MONDAY NIGHT NFL BOOKIE BU$TER

The Seattle Seahawks rank dead last for total defense over the season, but they've played rather well on the defensive side of the ball in recent weeks. On Nov 15 they held the Rams to 16 points and 277 yards of total offense and last time out they limited Arizona to 21 points and 380 yards of total offense. Here they'll take on a reeling Philadelphia team that has scored just 17 points in its last two games, losses to the Giants and the Browns. 

The Eagles rank 26th for total offense, but their defense is decent and they rank 6th in the NFL against the pass and second in sacks with 34.  

Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall. Under is 20-7 in Eagles last 27 home games. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

8* play on UNDER. 

49ERS @ RAMS 8* NFL BOOKIE BLA$TER TOTAL

The Los Angeles Rams rank #1 for total defense allowing 291.9 yards per game and they are 7-3 to the under on the season. Last time out, the Rams gave up 24 points to Tampa Bay, but they limited the Bucs to an impressive 251 yards of total offense and picked off Tom Brady twice. 

Here they'll take on a reeling San Francisco team that has lost three straight and has put up a total of only 30 points through its last two games. Defensively the Niners can hold their own though, ranking 7th in the NFL for total defense allowing only 315.9 ypg for the season. 

Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games as a home favorite.

In addition to the under, I also like the Rams to win by at least a touchdown. They'll be super motivated entering Sunday tied with Seattle at the top of the NFC West, and they'll be looking to avenge a 24-16 loss to the Niners at Levi's Stadium back in October.

8* play on UNDER. 

CHARGERS @ BILLS 8* NFL BOOKIE BOMBER TOTAL

This looks like a great spot to back a hyper-motivated Buffalo Bills side that is entering the week with a one-game lead over the Miami Dolphins at the top of the AFC East standings. They've had extra time to heal up and prepare as they are coming off their bye week, and they'll be looking to get back on track after taking a heartbreaking loss at Arizona on November 15 last time out. 

The Los Angeles Chargers meanwhile snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the NY Jets last time out, but they still failed to cover the 10-point spread. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up win and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. With virtually no shot at making the playoffs and now traveling across the country, I don't think they can muster up the motivation to keep up with the Bills in this one.

Buffalo has put up 74 points through its last two games and they are 7-2-1 to the over on the season. The Chargers have averaged a healthy 29.7 points per game over their last seven contests with each of those seven games going over the total. 

8* play on OVER. 

EARLY PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN 8* NCAAF TOTAL BOOKIE BOMBER

This season is pretty much a write off for both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines as the teams are heading into the weekend with a combined 2-8 record. 

Penn State is a winless 0-5 SU and ATS and has averaged only 24.6 points per game. Michigan is 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) and averages 30.6 points per game. It won 48-42 at Rutgers last time out, but note that 13 of its points were scored in overtime. 

Sure, neither team is looking very good defensively either allowing 36.0 points per game, but I don't see either side reaching 30 points in this one. 

Michigan has at least shown signs of life and the home team has won each of the last four meetings in this series, which is why I like the Wolverines and the under in this contest. 

8* play on Michigan. 

EAGLES @ BROWNS 8* NFL BOOKIE BOMBER TOTAL

The 3-5-1 (3-6 ATS) Philadelphia Eagles took a 27-17 loss as a 5-point favorite against the New York Giants last week. On paper, it looked like a perfect spot for the Eagles as they were coming off a bye and facing a Giants team off a win against Washington, but this Eagles team has shown time and time again that it can not be trusted to show up when it should. 

The 6-3 (3-6 ATS) Cleveland Browns are coming off an ugly 10-7 win against Houston, but the bad weather was a big factor. Their defense has been solid in recent weeks, while offensively they rely on their running game which should thrive against the Eagles' 26th-ranked run defense. 

Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

In addition to Cleveland winning the game straight up and cover the spread, I think this will be a low-scoring affair. 

Under is 12-2 in Eagles last 14 games in November. Under is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games in November. Under is 11-4-1 in Browns last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

8* play on UNDER. 

VIRGINIA TECH @ PITTSBURGH BOOKIE BLA$TER TOTAL

The Pittsburgh Panthers look like a solid home dog in this matchup with Virginia Tech. The Hokies have lost back-to-back games and three of their last four. The Hokies have decent success running the football, but that might not be the case here against the #2 run defense in the nation. 

Pittsburgh snapped a four-game skid with a dominant 41-17 triumph at FSU two weeks ago, a game where QB Kenny Picket was back under center after missing a couple of games. Last week's scheduled game against Georgia Tech got postponed after an unknown number of Pitt players tested positive for Covid-19. Pitt did however have limited practice this week, and I think they'll come out well-rested and energized for this contest. 

In addition to Pittsburgh covering the spread, I expect this game to be of the low-scoring variety. 

8* play on UNDER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY TOTAL

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a 63-53 loss at Florida. I don't think this contest will see nearly as many points, with the Razorback looking for a better defensive performance and facing an LSU team that put up just 11 points in a loss at Auburn on Halloween in their last game. LSU's offense is likely to be rusty after the extended break, and we can note that the under is 4-0 in Razorbacks last 4 games as a home underdog.

Additionally, I also like Arkansas to win this one. Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

8* play on UNDER. 

SUPER EARLY SUN BELT BOOKIE BLA$TER TOTAL

The #15 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS on the season. 

The Chanticleers come into Week 12 well-rested as last week's scheduled matchup with Troy was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. They'll face an App State team that is 6-1 SU on the season, but only 1-6 ATS. 

Last time out, the Mountaineers won only 17-13 as an 18-point favorite over Georgia State. Senior QB Zac Thomas took a hit on the sideline at the end of a scramble and is considered a game-time decision for this contest. 

I don't see App State being able to keep pace with a Coastal Carolina team that has been dominant on both sides of the ball. 

Coastal Carolina is averaging 37.9 points per game, and I think the home team will run up the score allowing us to cash two tickets at once, both the side and the total. 

8* play on OVER. 

NINERS @ SAINTS BOOKIE BOMBER TOTAL 

This contest features two teams in very different spots, with the San Francisco 49ers off a humiliating home loss to Green Bay on Thursday night while the New Orleans Saints put a 38-3 beating on the Bucs on Sunday night. I think this sets up a perfect buy low, sell high spot here, selling the Saints in a potential letdown spot while buying an angry and disappointed Niners side with extra time to prepare. Additionally, the 49ers are getting healthy after dealing with a ton of injuries over the last couple of weeks. 

49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

In addition to the Niners covering the spread, I also like the under. Note that both teams take 28+ seconds per snap on average which rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL. 

Under is 6-2-1 in 49ers last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.

8* play on UNDER. 

PATRIOTS @ JETS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BOOKIE BU$TER

The New York Jets have scored a total of 29 points over their last four games while the New England Patriots have been held to a total of 49 points over their last four games. I really don't think the bookmakers can set the total low enough here. 

Under is 15-6 in Patriots last 21 games as a road favorite. Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games in November. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog.

8* play on UNDER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Buffalo Bills have failed to cover the spread in four straight games and their offense has cooled off significantly since a hot start to the year, averaging only 18.9 ppg over their last four games. 

While Seattle admittedly has a lot of issues defensively I don't see Buffalo being able to capitalize, and on the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have been cooking all season long and they own the best scoring offense in the NFL. 

Additionally, the Bills are coming off a hard-fought divisional win against the Patriots who pushed them to the limit while the Seahawks had a much easier week, convincingly handling the Niners.  

Seahawks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

In addition to Seattle winning and covering the spread, I also like this game to go over the total as the Seahawks should rack up plenty of points. 

8* play on OVER. 

MARYLAND @ PENN STATE 8* NCAAF TOTAL BOOKIE BA$HER

The Maryland Terrapins are dead last in the Big Ten in total defense and have surrendered 43 points and 44 points in their first two games of the season. Last time out, they rolled up 675 yards of total offense in a 45-44 OT win against Minnesota. I think we'll see another high-scoring contest involving Maryland as they square off with Penn State this Saturday. 

The Nittany Lions should be ready to roll after putting up just 325 yards of offense in a 38-25 loss to Ohio State last time out. They lost their season opener 36-35 in OT at Indiana, so getting back on track here is of utmost importance for the Lions. 

"If you aren't motivated off two losses, with our backs against the wall, if you are just going to fold and say, 'Alright, next year,' I don't want you here," said Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford. "I'm not going to pack it up, blame it on COVID. That's not how I operate. That's not how the people around me operate. We are going to get back on track."

8* play on OVER. 

ARIZONA STATE @ USC 8* NCAAF BOOKIE BOMBER

The USC Trojans host the Arizona State Sun Devils this Saturday which for the start of the 2020 Pac-12 Conference football season. The last three head-to-head meetings have gone over the total, including a 31-26 USC win with the total closing at 54 points last year. I expect a shootout with an even higher final score this time around. 

USC ranked No. 2 for total offense in the PAC in 2019 averaging 454 yards per game, and it returns several starters on offense, including QB Kedon Slovis (30:9 TD to INT ratio last year) and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns. 

As for Arizona State, its offense should be improved from last year and returns dual-threat sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels who averaged 8.7 passing yards per attempt and finished last year with an impressive 17:2 TD to INT ratio. The Sun Devils defense was among the best in the PAC 12 in 2019, but slowing down the Trojans powerhouse air raid offense won't be easy. 

Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 conference games. Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 conference games.

8* play on OVER. 

BALL STATE @ MIAMI-OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT NCAAF BOOKIE BU$TER

This is the season opener for both teams as the MAC kicks off this week, and I think the game has all the signs of a shootout.

The Ball State Cardinals' offense was among the best in the conference in 2019, averaging 34.8 ppg, but they struggled on the defensive side of the ball allowing allowed 31.4 ppg. Quarterback Drew Plitt returns under center as well as running back Caleb Huntley and two of the team's top three receivers. 

As for the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks, they return most of last year’s offense and sophomore QB Brett Gabbert should have a good year with some experience under his belt, and he couldn't ask for a much better start than facing the Cardinal's porous defense.

Ball State was 9-2-1 to the over of this total of 55 points last year won the 2019 head-to-head matchup with Miami (Ohio) 41-27. 

8* play on OVER. 

BUCS @ GIANTS - MONDAY NIGHT BOOKIE BU$TER

The New York Giants are 5-2 to the under on the season and they rank near the bottom of the league for most offensive metrics. They average only 17.4 points per game, and here they'll face one of the best defenses in the league as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are holding opponents to a league-best 291.3 yards per game while allowing only 20.3 points per game. 

The Giants have been decent on the defensive side of the football most of the season and have conceded a total of just 41 points over their last two games. 

I expect the Bucs to take an early lead and then control the clock and bleed time to get out of New York ASAP so they can prepare for next week's matchup with New Orleans. 

8* play on UNDER. 

SAINTS VS BEARS 8* NFL BOOKIE BU$TER

The Chicago Bears are 5-2 to the under on the season and Nick Foles has hardly been any better than Mitch Trubisky since taking over as starting quarterback. 

Still, the Bears are 5-2 SU have managed to rack up wins with a defense that has held opponents to 20 points per game, and I think they'll be able to slow down this otherwise high-scoring Saints side who are 6-0 to the over on the season. 

The Saints secondary is underwhelming, but I doubt the Bears can take advantage and it will be cold and windy at Soldier Field, far from ideal conditions for a shootout. 

8* play on UNDER-. 

STEELERS @ RAVENS 8* NFL BOOKIE BLA$TER

The Baltimore Ravens usually have decent success running the football, but here they'll run into the best defensive line in the NFL. The Steelers are holding opponents a league-best 286.3 yards a game and an average of 68.8 rushing yards per game. Just last week, they held the Titans' Derrick Henry to 75 yards on 20 attempts (3.75 rypa. I am confident this will be an ugly, physical AFC North battle. 

Under is 20-6-1 in Steelers last 27 games as an underdog. Under is 6-2 in Ravens last 8 games as a favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

FALCONS VS PANTHERS THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

The Carolina Panthers (3-4) host the Atlanta Falcons (1-6) in a battle between NFC South teams Thursday night. I think we have several reasons to believe that the final score for this contest will go under the total.

Atlanta is allowing 29.6 points per game on the season, but it has held its opponent to 23 points in three straight games, including a 23-16 loss to Carolina in Week 5. 

The Falcons are a pass-heavy team, but the Panthers rank 10th in the NFL against the pass. 

Carolina has really struggled o move the ball on the ground in recent weeks, and here it'll face an Atlanta defense that ranks 6th in the NFL against the pass. The Panthers will have to rely on QB Teddy Bridgewater to move the sticks, but he can only do so much without a rushing threat to take some of the pressure off of him. 

The Panthers rank 25th in the NFL for points scored per game, averaging only 23.1 ppg, and with this being a Thursday night game, both teams have had less time than usual to come up with creative game-plans on offense. 

Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 Thursday games and 5-1 in their last 6 games in October.

10* play on UNDER 49.5 points. 

BEARS @ RAMS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BOOKIE BU$TER

The total for this Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams Monday night matchup has dropped a fair amount since the opener, but I still think there's value on the under at this number. Note that both teams are 4-2 to the under on the season and the Rams have been held to under 20 points in two of their last three games. As for the Bears, they have both scored and allowed an average of 18 points over their last three games. 

Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games in October and 10-3 in Bears last 13 games as a road underdog. Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games in October and 6-1 in Rams last 7 games as a home favorite.

8* play on UNDER. 

CARDINALS @ COWBOYS 8* MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL

The Dallas Cowboys have dropped from -3 to a pick'em following a season-ending broken ankle for Dak Prescott.

One could argue that the Cowboys have one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league in veteran Andy Dalton though, and I think the home team is severely underrated in this one.

"We all have great confidence in Andy," Dallas coach Mike McCarthy said. "We've all been working together since training camp. ... I expect Andy to keep our offense moving forward and hopefully we can improve some."

The Arizona Cardinals had lost back-to-back games before defeating the Jets last week, but come on, it's hard to give anyone credit for beating the Jets this year. 

All in all, the betting market has overadjusted to Prescott's injury and I think Dallas will rally around its backup QB and come up with a big effort here in primetime on national TV.

In addition to the Cowboys winning the game, I also like the over as they're unlikely to win thanks to their defense.  

8* play on OVER. 

RAMS @ 49ERS SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a disappointing 43-17 home loss to Miami. I think their offense will bounce back here against a Rams team that is getting too much respect for its last two games, allowing a combined 19 points against the Giants and the Washington Football Team. The Rams have a prolific offense that ranks 4th in the league for total yards and QB Jared Goff is on fire.

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings and 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 road games.

8* play on OVER. 

BROWNS @ STEELERS NFL BOOKIE BOMBER TOTAL

The Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing only 301.5 total yards per game (3rd), but this will be the best offense they've seen all season. 

The Cleveland Browns are averaging a solid 31.2 points per game (4th), despite putting up just six at Baltimore in the season opener. 

On the other side of the ball, the Browns are struggling. Their secondary has been particularly poor, bad news as they'll face one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Big Ben. 

Over is 4-1 in the Browns' games on the season and 3-1 in the Steelers'. 

8* play on OVER. 

MIDDLE TENN  @ FLORIDA INT BOOKIE BA$HER TOTAL

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are allowing an average of 36.5 points per game over four games. They're 0-4, but the good news is the offense has looked better in the last two games. The Florida International Golden Panthers gave up 36 points in a loss at Liberty in their only game of the season. With two struggling defenses, I think it's fair to assume a relatively high-scoring encounter flying over the total. 

8* play on OVER. 

SUPER EARLY GATORS @ AGGIES TOTAL (8*)

The No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies took a 52-24 beating by No. 2 Alabama last week. It was not all bad news though as the offense looked decent with QB Kellen Mond throwing for 318 yards and three TD passes vs. one INT. 

The Aggies will face another tough opponent this week in the third-ranked Florida Gators who have scored a total of 89 points through two wins. Potential Heisman candidate Kyle Trask has already thrown for 684 yards and 10 TDs, but the Gators have been vulnerable on the defensive side. Their secondary in particular has been struggling, and I think both teams will have success throwing the ball pushing the score over the posted total. 

Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite. Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog.

8* play on OVER. 

BUCS VS BEARS THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up 31 points to the Chargers last Sunday, but they still own the 4th best total defense in the NFL giving up only 312 yards per game.

The Chicago Bears are coming off a loss to Indianapolis, despite the defense doing its job allowing only 19 points on 289 total yards. Nick Foles replaced Mitch Trubisky under center but was not much of an improvement completing 26-of-42 passes for 249 yards and one TD vs. one INT. 

On the season, Tampa Bay is allowing only 5.1 yards per play (4th) and Chicago 5.2 yards per play (7th). 

Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

10* play on UNDER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Atlanta Falcons have lost each of their three games on the season, but they could've/should've won the last two if not for a couple of fourth-quarter meltdowns. 

Sure, it seems like it's in the Falcons DNA to blow big leads, but I can't help but fading the public in this one and take the points when they face the undefeated 3-0 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field Monday night.  

The Falcons defense is of course a mess, but their offense can hang with the best of them (4th in total yards, 3rd in passing yards). We can also note that the Packers D has looked vulnerable at times as well with 28.3 points allowed, and that despite two of their opponents being Minnesota and Detroit. 

On the season, Atlanta has allowed 38 points to Seattle, 40 points to Dallas and 30 points to Chicago. The Packers have allowed 34 points to Minnesota, 21 points o Detroit and 30 points to New Orleans.  

I would not be surprised to see both teams score 30+ points in this one. 

8* play on OVER. 

DOLPHINS @ PATRTOTS TOTAL

The Miami Dolphins are always up for a game against their AFC East rival and have won three of the last five meetings with the New England Patriots outright. 

No one knows where the Pats stand as they haven't been able to play even a preseason game since losing Tom Brady to Tampa Bay, and even though Bill Belichick is a terrific coach, one must wonder if he'll have the New England offense ready for this. 

Cam Newton will start for the Patriots, but he might need some time to settle in and we can note that the Pats have not only lost Brady, but they've also been hit hard with players opting out because of concerns over the coronavirus. 

Additionally to Miami covering the spread, I also like the under. 

Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games in September. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games in September.

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NFL): MIKE'S CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL *BEST BET*

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a wild 51-31 win over Houston in the divisional round, but I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game when they take on the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game.

Tennessee's two playoff games have seen just 33 and 40 points respectively, and we can note that the under is 5-2 in the Chiefs' last seven games.

The Titans will rely on running back Derrick Henry to move the ball, and while he's likely to have decent success, it will also drain the clock and keep the ball out of KC QB Patrick Mahomes' hands.

While the Chiefs are capable of explosive plays as seen in last week's shootout, note that the Titans have held their last two opponents to 12 and 13 points, despite facing the Pats and the Ravens! 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NCAAF): MIKE'S CLEMSON VS. LSU TOTAL *BEST BET*

The Clemson Tigers top ranked defense limited the powerful Ohio State Buckeyes to 23 points in the Fiesta Bowl. That was the most points they've allowed all season, and I think they'll make life difficult for LSU in the NCAA Championship Game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. 

The Tigers put up 63 points in their win over Oklahoma in the Peach Bowl, but the Sooners defense was extremely underwhelming. LSU QB Joe Burrow shredded Oklahoma with 493 passsing yards and seven(!) touchdown passes while also adding 22 yards and a score on the ground, but with two weeks to prepare you better believe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will have done his homework on the Heisman trophy winner. 

As for the Tigers offense, that's not where the team's strength is. Sure, their 45.3 ppg ranks fourth in the nation, but that's against much worse teams than LSU. They can afford to turn this into a shootout, and I think the value is on the under in this matchup. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED DIVISIONAL ROUND TOTAL

The San Francisco 49ers defense was dominant at the start of the season but got worn down and faded down the stretch. They will be fresh and healthy following a bye week and I expect to see a low-scoring contest in their divisional-round matchup with Minnesota. 

The Vikings held Drew Brees and the Saints to 20 points in their wild-card matchup last week and the team ranks 6th in the NFL for points allowed. The Niners defense ranks second in the NFL for points allowed and no team is better at stopping the pass with the team holding opponents to 169.2 passing yards per game. 

Additionally, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has a tendency to choke in big games and I don't trust Niners' signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo to have a big game in his first postseason outing. 

Under is 8-3-1 in Vikings last 12 playoff games. Under is 17-8-1 in Vikings last 26 games as a road underdog.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED VIKES @ SAINTS TOTAL

This number has moved up several points since the opener, and I disagree completely with the move. 

The Minnesota Vikings have been held to 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games, and QB Kirk Cousins has a tendency to do poorly in prime time games. While this technically isn't a prime time game, he'll no doubt know that all eyes will on this game. 

Additionally, star tailback Dalvin Cook has missed the past two with a shoulder injury and the New Orleans Saints rank fourth in the NFL for rushing yards allowed.  

As for the Saints offense, they've scored 34 points or more in four straight games, but Minnesota owns a stronger D than any of the teams they faced during that stretch.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 17 TOTAL

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and are as a result expected to rest their starters. I don't see their backups moving the ball well against a Pittsburgh defense that is one of the best in the league, particularly with the Steelers highly motivated and still in the race for a wild-card spot.

As for the Steelers offense, it's been lackluster all season long and ranks 30th for total yards and 26th for points scored.

The Steelers have played seven straight unders and only three of their 15 games on the season have gone over the total. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 16 TOTAL

I think points will come at a premium for both sides at Foxboro this Saturday, and even though we're seeing a very low total I don't think the books can make this low enough. Buffalo is averaging only 20.9 ppg while the Pats have held opponents to 12.9 ppg and the Bills have scored 17 points in back-to-back games. As for New England, while it broke out for 34 points last time out, that was against the Bengals ... It had averaged only 17.6 ppg through its last five prior to that and the Bills defense ranks second to the Pats for points allowed at 15.9 ppg. 

Under is 7-0 in Bills last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Patriots last 11 home games. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED NFL TOTAL FOR WEEK 15

I think Sunday afternoon's matchup between the LA Rams and the Dallas Cowboys will be a relatively low-scoring affair. Dallas has averaged just 13 ppg through a three-game slide, and here it'll face a Rams defense that has been one of the best in the league since acquiring star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8 games overall and 12-3 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. 

10* play on UNDER. 

TEXANS @ TITANS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOTAL

The Tennessee Titans have won four on the bounce while averaging 37.5 points per game with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. The Houston Texans took a disappointing 38-24 home loss to the Denver Broncos last week and their defense ranks 25th in total defense and 27th in the league against the pass. On the offensive side of the ball, Houston rarely has any issues to move the ball and I expect a big bounce back game from QB Deshaun Watson who threw for 292 yards with a TD and two INTs last week. 

Over is 7-0 in Titans last 7 games overall.

8* play on OVER. 

THURSDAY NIGHT JETS @ RAVENS *TOP PLAY*

This should be a game the Baltimore Ravens will be looking to win with as little effort as possible. Star QB Lamar Jackson is dinged up, and even though he's expected to play Jackson could be heading to the bench once/if the Ravens build up a comfortable lead. After that, they can lean on their defense to get the job done. 

The NY Jets do not have the players to challenge elite defenses and should find it difficult to move the ball against this vaunted Baltimore defense that has allowed an average of 12 ppg through its last five contests. 

Under is 9-4 in Jets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games as a home favorite.

10* play on UNDER. 

GIANTS @ EAGLES MONDAY NIGHT *TOP PLAY*

The New York Giants have dropped eight straight since their 2-2 start to the season. They've put up a total of just 27 points through their last two games and scored just 13 against Green Bay's porous defense last time out. 

As for the Philadelphia Eagles, they're losers of three straight and had scored just 19 points through the first two prior to a particularly embarrassing 37-31 loss at Miami last time out. I expect the Eagles' defense to bounce back in a big way, and it should not have much to fear from a Giants' team that will have a rusty Eli Manning under center for the first time since Week 2 as rookie Daniel Jones is out with an ankle sprain. 

Moving the ball on the ground won't be easy against the Eagles' elite run defense, and I don't see the Giants putting many points on the board. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NFL): MIKE'S BEST NFL TOTAL FOR 2018/19 REG SEASON!

The LA Chargers are 8-4 to the under this season. Last week's matchup at Denver saw 43 points scored between the two teams with a closing total of 39, but I'm extremely confident the total is set too high when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon. 

Points have been hard to come by for Jacksonville all season, but recent weeks have been particularly poor with an average of just 11.8 ppg through a four-game skid. Gardner Minshew will be back at the helm following a disastrous Nick Foles comeback, but I don't see him moving the ball freely against this competent Chargers defense that tranks 4th in the NFL against the pass with fewer than 200 passing yards allowed per game. 

Additionally, note that the Chargers are one of the slowest teams in the NFL taking almost 29 seconds between plays and the Jags are unlikely to push the tempo as a home dog. 

Under is 20-5-1 in Chargers last 26 games in December. Under is 9-2 in Jaguars last 11 home games.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND TOTAL

The Clemson Tigers will do battle with the Virginia Cavaliers in the 2019 ACC Championship Game Saturday night, but looking at the points spread it's not supposed to be much of a contest. 

The Tigers are favored by four touchdowns, and while scores should come easy for this very talented Clemson team, I like the Cavs to put their fair share of points on the board as well. 

This is the fifth game of the season as a dog for Virginia with three of the previous four going over the total. It's last time out as an underdog it put up 39 points in a straight up win over Virginia Tech as senior quarterback Bryce Perkins had another big game with 475 yards total offense and three scores. 

Clemson has limited its last two opponents to three points each, but Virginia has more offensive firepower than Wake Forest and South Carolina.

10* play on OVER. 

TOP RATED COWBOYS @ BEARS THURSDAY NIGHT TOTAL

The Dallas Cowboys took a 26-15 loss to Buffalo last week and their sputtering offense has scored a total of just 24 points over the last two games. Dallas still owns the top ranked offense at 432.8 yards per game, but moving the ball against a Chicago Bears team that ranks near the top of the league for most defensive categories and has allowed an average of just 17.3 ppg on the season won't be easy. As for the Bears offense, they scare no one with only Washington, the NY Jets and Miami averaging fewer total yards of offense per game. 

The cold Chicago weather won't do either team's offense any favors either, and we can note that under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 games in December and 4-0 in Bears last 4 games in December. Additionally, the under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games as an underdog.

10* play on UNDER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Houston Texans have won three of their last four following a 20-17 win over Indianapolis last week. The lone loss during that four-game stretch was of the blowout variety at Baltimore, and I think they'll find it hard to keep it close here when hosting another of the true elite teams in the NFL Sunday afternoon. 

The New England Patriots have just one loss on the season (to Baltimore) and they're 7-4 ATS, despite often asked to cover inflated numbers. They came up just short of covering the point spread in a 13-9 win over Dallas last week but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in December.

The Texans on the other hand are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. 

The Pats have a chance to wrap up a playoff spot with a win here, and you better believe Bill Belichick would prefer to clinch it ASAP. 

Additionally, I like the trends supporting a relatively low-scoring game:

Under is 10-2 in Patriots last 12 games in December. Under is 25-10 in Patriots last 35 road games. Under is 8-1 in Texans last 9 home games. Under is 8-3 in Texans last 11 games in December.

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOTAL

I expect points to come relatively easy for both teams when the 6-5 Indianapolis Colts host the 6-5 Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon. 

Tennessee has scored a total of 77 points in its last two games and QB Ryan Tannehill has a 10-4 TD/INT ratio since taking over from Marcus Mariota. The Titans churned out 219 rushing yards with four scores on the ground against Jacksonville last time out, and here they'll face a Colts D that has allowed 144.2 rushing yards per game on the season. 

As for the Titans D, it has allowed 52 points in the last two games and the Colts will be desperate for a win after losing three of their last four. 

Over is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games overall.

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED REG SEASON TOTAL

I'm confident we'll see this early Saturday afternoon matchup between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Illinois Fighting Illini stay under the total. 

Illinois has had a solid season by its standards, despite dropping a 19-10 decision at Iowa last week. Limiting Iowa to fewer than 20 points is quite impressive, and the Fighting Illini have played solid defense in recent weeks resulting in four of its last five going under the total. 

As for Northwestern, It has struggled to put points on the board all season and has averaged just 8.8 points scored away from home. That being said, the Wildcats have also allowed only 22.0 ppg on the road and the under is 4-0 in Wildcats four road games on the season. ´

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED NFL TOTAL FOR NOVEMBER

The Atlanta Hawks defense has improved a lot lately and they've held their last two opponents to a combined 12 points. 

The Falcons are still one of the worst teams in the league against the pass and allowed a mediocre QB like Kyle Allen to throw for 325 yards last week (but also picked him off four times). Here they'll face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that very much prefers to move the ball through the air and ranks 4th in the NFL with 285.6 passing yards per game. 

One of the few teams ahead of the Bucs in passing yards per game is Atlanta with its 300.3 pypg, and while Tampa Bay is one of the best teams at stopping the run, it is the second-worst in the league against the pass. 

I expect both teams to have plenty of success with explosive plays and a pass first, run second approach which also will stop the clock from running. 

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 11 TOTAL

The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 28.1 ppg on the season, but their defense has been playing much better in recent weeks. Last time out they held Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints without a touchdown in a 26-9 win, and here today they will face a Carolina team that scored just 16 points at Green Bay last week. On a positive note, the Panthers defense held Aaron Rodgers to just 233 passing yards without a touchdown, and I think they'll be able to slow down the Falcons prolific passing attack.

Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 19-9 in Panthers' last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 10 TOTAL

The Cincinnati Bengals have put up 17, 17 and 10 points in their last three games. Under is 6-2 in their eight games on the season and I think we'll see a relatively low-scoring affair when they host AFC North rivals Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon. I would not be surprised to see Baltimore come out flat here following a massive 37-20 win over New England last week, no facing a winless Cincinnati team and with Houston on deck. 

The Ravens picked up a 23-17 win over the Bengals home in Baltimore on Oct. 13 with a total closing at 47 points. The books have adjusted the total somewhat for this contest, but not enough if you ask me. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 11 TOTAL

The over/under is 1-3 in the Florida Atlantic Owls' four home games on the season, and I think they're in for another low-scoring contest when hosting the Florida International Golden Panthers on Saturday.

The under is 9-5 in Florida Atlantic's last 14 games as a favorite and they'll face a Golden Panthers team that has scored a total of just 41 points over its last two games. The visitors did hold Old Dominion to 17 points last time out, and they can achieve bowl eligibility with a victory in this game but I doubt they like their chances in a shootout.

The Owls defense has conceded only a combined 27 points in their last two games and is unlikely to give up a big number here. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 9 TOTAL

The Carolina Panthers defense will be ready for this one after giving up 50+ points to San Francisco last week. Note that the over/under is 4-11 in the last 15 NFL games where one of the teams conceded 50 points or more its last game. 

Here Carolina will face a Tennessee Titans team that has struggled all season long and will have Ryan Tannehill under center for a second straight week after benching Marcus Mariota. Tennessee's offense is among the worst in the league averaging only 5.0 yards per play and Carolina is only marginally better at 5.2 ypp. 

Both teams are much more accomplished on the defensive side of the ball, and Titans run defense should be able to if not stop, at least contain Panthers' star running back Christian McCaffrey. 

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED WEEK 10 TOTAL

The Boston College have the worst scoring defense in the ACC giving up 32.0 ppg and the over/under is 6-2 in their eight games on the season. Their defense was lit up in a 59-7 loss to Clemson last time out and the Syracuse Orange, despite their limitations, should be able to move the ball quite freely. 

As for when Boston College has the ball, it averages a healthy 31.1 points per game and has the 10th best ground game in the country led by elite running back in AJ Dillon. Syracuse has allowed 160.0 rushing yards per game so expect BC to have decent success moving the ball on the ground. 

10* play on OVER. 

TOP RATED 49ERS @ CARDINALS THURSDAY NIGHT *BEST BET*

Do not let the fact that the San Francisco 49ers put up 51 points against Carolina last week scare you. They had played four straight unders prior to that offensive explosion, and I think they'll let the defense pick up the slack here when playing on a short week at Arizona Cardinals Thursday night. 

Arizona and rookie QB Kyler Murray had put up impressive offensive numbers against weak defenses (Cincinnati, Atlanta, NY Giants) before getting exposed by New Orleans' elite defense in a 31-9 loss last week. The Niners lead the NFL in total defense and points allowed, so points will most likely be equally hard to come by for the home team in this one. 

Under is 9-3 in 49ers last 12 Thursday games. Under is 7-3 in 49ers last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

10* play on UNDER. 

CHARGERS @ BEARS

The Chicago Bears are coming off a couple of relatively high-scoring defeats against Oakland and New Orleans. They're desperate for a win now, and I think their defense will step it up a notch again here when hosting the slumping LA Chargers. 

The visitors have scored just a total of 50 points through three consecutive losses and they had played five straight unders prior to last week's 23-20 loss (42.5-point total) at Tennessee. The Chargers are a slow team that lets the clock run a fair amount of time between snaps and moving the ball won't be easy against this elite Chicago defense. 

That being said, the Chargers defense is actually pretty decent as well and ranks just behind the Bears with 333.3 total yards allowed per game. Chicago's offense is quite limited and has averaged only 18.7 ppg and I expect to see an ugly and slow, low-scoring affair at Soldier Field this Sunday.

8* play on UNDER.  

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED REDSKINS @ VIKINGS TOTAL

I think we'll see a low-scoring affair when the Minnesota Vikings host the Washington Redskins Thursday night. 

The Vikes have been putting up impressive offensive numbers in recent weeks, but QB Kirk Cousins has a tendency to do worse in primetime games and this should be no exception playing on a short week. There will simply be no reason for Minnesota to run up the score against a hapless Redskins team so the main focus (apart from getting the W) should be to come out of this contest as healthy as possible. Expect Minnesota to take a healthy lead and then bleed the clock dry on every possession. 

Under is 9-4 in Vikings last 13 games overall and 5-1 in their 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 4-0 in Redskins last 4 games overall.

10* play on UNDER. 

PATRIOTS @ JETS MONDAY NIGHT AFC EAST SHOWDOWN *TOP PLAY*

NY Jets QB Sam Darnold missed three games from mononucleosis but came back with one of the best games of his career when he led the team to major upset against Dallas last week. 

We can however note that Darnold threw for just 175 yards and was sacked four times when he faced the Bills elite defense in his only other start this season on September 9. The Pats D is right up there with Buffalo's ranking near the top of the league in several defensive categories and the Jets left Gilette Stadium without an offensive touchdown in a 30-14 loss a couple of weeks ago.

Under is 9-0 in Patriots last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and keep in mind that the Jets rank dead last in tempo taking almost 31 seconds per play. 

10* play on UNDER. 

SAINTS @ BEARS LATE AFTERNOON BOOKIE BLASTER

We're seeing a very low total for this matchup between the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon, but for a very good reason. I think points will be extremely hard to come by for both teams. 

The Bears rank sixth in the nation for total defense while allowing just 13.8 ppg. They'll no doubt be ready for New Orleans here, coming off their bye week following a disappointing 24-21 loss to Oakland in London, England. 

The Bears hope to get quarterback Mitch Trubisky back after missing the last game because of a left shoulder injury, but he's still a limited quarterback and the team ranks near the bottom of the league with 266.0 yards of total offense per game. Saints' QB Teddy Bridgewater is quite effective running a dink and dunk offense, but he's not really capable of coming up with big plays which will spell disaster against a Chicago's defense that never gives an inch for free. 

Neither will the Saints who just held the Jags to six points and 226 yards of total offense at Jacksonville, and I'm happy to take the under here no matter the number.  

Additionally, note that both teams rank in the bottom five for pace with each side taking almost 30 seconds/play.

8* play on UNDER. 

EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON NO BRAINER TOTAL

The San Francisco 49ers are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. They've allowed just a total of 10 points against Cleveland Indians and the LA Rams over their last two games, and each of their last three has gone under the total. Under is 4-1 in their five games this season and this should be another low-scoring contest.  

Here they'll face an offensively inept Washington Redskins team that had scored a total of just 10 points over their last two games before putting up 17 to just barely beat the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. I expect the Niners to take an early lead and then control the clock and keep the Skins offense off the field. 

8* play on UNDER. 

NFL 3-PACK

The Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons combined for 67 points and helped me cash my NFL total of the week last week. The over is 3-1 in their last four games and I expect to see another high-scoring affair involving Arizona when it visits the NY Giants here in Week 7. 

The Giants have been held to fewer than 15 points in three of six games this season, but they've faced absolute elite defenses in those games. One can hardly blame a team for struggling to put points on the board against Buffalo, New England, and Minnesota, and they did score 32 at Tampa Bay in Week 3. 

Here they'll take shots on an Arizona defense that is among the worst in the league with 414 yards allowed per game, and the Giants are expected to get Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram, two of their most explosive offensive players, back in the lineup for this game. 

As for Arizona's offense, QB Kyler Murray is getting more and more comfortable and has led the team to back-to-back wins. Last time out Murray passed for 340 yards with three touchdowns and also added 32 yards on 11 carries on the ground.

8* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED CHIEFS @ BRONCOS TOTAL

I think the posted total is set way too high for this Thursday Night Football clash between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs at Mile High. 

The usually so high-scoring Chiefs have averaged only 21.5 ppg during an 0-2 SU and ATS slide. MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed just 55 percent of his passes during that stretch and is visibly bothered by a lingering ankle injury. To be fair, he is not getting much help from a banged up offensive line and the Chiefs ground game is virtually non-existent. 

As for the Broncos they're trending in the opposite direction, and almost solely because of a defense that has been excellent in back-to-back wins. Note that they recorded seven sacks with three interceptions in last week's 16-0 shutout triumph over Tennessee. The Broncos do not bring much to the table offensively though, and when they do move the ball it will mainly be on the ground which will take time off the clock. 

The under is 13-2 over the last three seasons in Denver games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points and 11-3 L14 when facing a division rival. 

10* play on UNDER. 

STEELERS @ CHARGERS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the LA Chargers for a Sunday Night Showdown here in Week 6, and if you like action-packed football you might want to look away. 

Pittsburgh is down to its third-string quarterback after injuries to Big Ben and Mason Rudolph. Undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges will make his first start under center, and I don't expect much offensive production from him. The Steelers might have to try and move the chains on the ground, but this is a team that has averaged a pathetic 67.0 rushing yards per game (29th in the NFL) on the season. The home team will almost certainly stack the line of scrimmage and dare the inexperienced Steelers QB to make plays. 

The Steelers D knows it will have to step up big time to give the team a chance to win here, and the Chargers have issues with their offensive line. LA quarterback Philip Rivers is coming off one of the worst games of his career as he was limited to 32-of-48 passing for 211 yards and a pair of interceptions against the Broncos last week. 

Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games overall and 14-6 in their last 20 games in Week 6. Under is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 games in Week 6 and 37-15 in their last 52 road games. 

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S MAJOR WAGER TOTAL

The Atlanta Falcons have 99 problems, but scoring points ain't one. You would think that putting 32 points on the board would be enough to a W, but that was not the case for the Falcons as they took a 53-32 loss at Houston last week. 

Only KC's Patrick Mahomes has more passing yards than Atlanta QB Matt Ryan, and here Ryan will get to take shots against an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom third against the pass and in the bottom five for total defense. The Falcons D is only marginally better and it allowed Houston QB Deshaun Watson to complete 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards and five touchdown passes in Week 5. 

Arizona will enter this contest feeling pretty good about themselves after accumulating 514 yards of offense in a 26-23 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Rookie QB Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20-of-32 passes for 253 yards without an interception.  

Over is 8-3 in Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 14-6-1 in Falcons last 21 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

It's a big number, but I expect both teams to score fast and easy until the very last possession. 

10* play on OVER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a dominant beatdown of the NY Giants and QB Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season completing 22-of-27 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. 

Here they'll face a Philadelphia team that didn't look particularly good in its 31-6 win over the Jets last week. The scoreline is somewhat deceiving as they had just 265 yards of total offense but managed to take advantage of timely turnovers. Their defense was dominant with 10 sacks and two defensive touchdowns, but again, it was against the Jets, arguably one of the worst teams in the league. Philly's secondary is still banged up and Cousins should be able to take advantage. 

As for Minnesota's defense, it's one of the best in the league and the Eagles are not clicking on the offensive side of the ball. All things considered, I like Minnesota to win and cover in a low-scoring contest. 

8* play on UNDER

GAME OF THE WEEK (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED 10 UNIT TOTAL

The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off a dominant 49-24 win over TCU. They had no trouble to move the ball against an elite Horned Frogs defense, and I think they'll pile up the points against West Virginia.

The Mountaineers meanwhile took a 41-32 loss against Texas last week but it would've been even closer if quarterback Austin Kendall didn't throw four interceptions. Still, Kendall finished with 367 passing yards and also threw three touchdown passes, and their offense helped the Mountaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a seven-point dog on September 14. 

All of the Mountaineers' last four games have gone over the total, and while I'm not confident they'll cover the spread I think they'll put a fair amount of points on the board. 

Over is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 home games. Over is 9-3 in Mountaineers last 12 games following a straight-up loss.

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED TOTAL *MAJOR WAGER ALERT*

The Minnesota Vikings didn't get on the scoreboard until the middle of the fourth quarter in last week's 16-6 loss to the Chicago Bears. 

Over/under is 29-41-4 in games where a team scored seven or fewer points last time out dating back to the start of the 2017 season, and I think this has all the signs of a low-scoring affair. 

The Vikes have struggled to protect QB Kirk Cousins who was sacked six times against the Bears and running back Dalvin Cook was completely shut down, finishing with just 35 yards on 14 carries. The Giants defense is of course not nearly as good as Chicago's, but it has been more vulnerable through the air which is not something Minnesota can exploit effectively. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota has been as solid as ever. It held Chicago to 269 yards of total offense and ranks sixth in the NFL with 312.8 yards allowed per game despite facing what I consider good offenses in three of its four games. The Vikings should be able to shut down Giants team playing without its star running back and a rookie QB (Daniel Jones) who threw two interceptions in a 24-3 win over Washington last week.

Under is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 road games. Under is 15-7 in Giants last 22 home games.

10* play on UNDER. 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON PATRIOTS @ REDSKINS TOTAL

The New England Patriots lead the NFL in most defensive categories and have allowed an average of just 243 yards and 6.8 ppg. Three of their first four games of the season have gone under the total, the exception a 30-14 win over the Jets that went over the total by a single point. 

Here the Patriots will face a Washington Redskins team that was held to a field goal and fewer than 180 yards of total offense in a loss to the New York Giants last week. 

This all boils down to how many points Bill Belichick and Tom Brady feel the need to put on the board, and my assumption is that they'll be happy with a pedestrian win and keep everyone healthy. The Pats might reach 30 points, but I highly doubt Washington will put up more than 10. 

Under is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

8* play on UNDER. 

BILLS @ TITANS NFL NO BRAINER

Two of the better defenses in the league will clash at Nissan Stadium Sunday afternoon with Buffalo ranking fifth allowing 15.8 ppg and Tennessee fourth allowing 15.5 ppg. 

The Bills held the mighty Patriots to just 16 points (still lost the game) last time out while the Titans held the Falcons high-powered offense in check in a 24-10 win in Atlanta last week. Under is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 4-0 in Bills last 4 games overall.

Neither defense has allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points in a game this season, which would have to happen for this game to go over the total. I see absolutely no reason to take a contrarian approach to the total for this contest. 

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON TOTAL

The Penn State Nittany Lions have had no trouble to put points on the board in three of four games on the season, the exception a low-scoring 17-10 win over Pittsburgh. 

They average 50 ppg and scored 59 while racking up 622 yards of total offense in a shut out win at Maryland last time out and I think we'll see Penn State move the ball fast and easy here against a Purdue team that has allowed an average of 32.5 ppg on the season. 

Last time out, the Boilermakers gave up 488 yards of total offense in a 38-31 home loss to Minnesota and over is 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 

Purdue has scored 30+ points in three of its four games and I think it'll contribute enough to push the score over the total. 

10* play on OVER. 

SUPER EARLY TULANE @ ARMY TOTAL

I think points will be hard to come by for both the Army Black Knights and the Tulane Green Wave in this matchup. 

Army leads FBS in rushing attempts per game, and Tulane also prefers to keep the ball on the ground so every possession will take a lot of time off the clock. Army ranks 19th for team total defense giving up 288 yards per game, and Tulane ranks 44th surrendering a respectable 340 ypg.

Additionally, we can note that both teams are coming off their bye week, so they've had plenty of time to get ready for each other. Under is 22-5 in Black Knights last 27 games following a bye week and 17-4 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

8* play on UNDER. 

THURSDAY NIGHT RAMS @ SEAHAWKS TOTAL *TOP PLAY*'

We should see an angry and motivated Los Angeles Rams team heading to Seattle looking to bounce back from a 55-40 home loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reigning NFC champions are as good as anyone on the offensive side of the ball but simply can't trust their defense to win games.

Rams' third-year quarterback Jared Goff threw for 517 yards with two touchdown passes and three picks in that contest and they're averaging a healthy 29.2 ppg on the season. Seattle has an elite rushing defense, but its secondary is mediocre at best. The Seahawks allowed Bengals QB Andy Dalton to pass for 418 yards plus a pair of scores in the opening game of the season. Since then they've faced two teams with backup QBs and one team with a rookie under center. 

Offensively, the Seahawks just put up 20 points in the first half alone against Arizona and I think the two teams will combine for enough points to push the final score over the total. As the clincher, we can note that both matchups last season saw 60+ points scored!

10* play on OVER. 

MONDAY NIGHT BENGALS @ STEELERS TOTAL

I like the Cincinnati Bengals as an underdog in a low-scoring game here at division rival Pittsburgh Monday night. 

While Cincy has struggled to establish its run game, note that running back Joe Mixon showed some life against Buffalo's elite defense last week, and here he'll face a Pittsburgh team that has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game. Bengals QB Andy Dalton is no world-beater, but he has a respectable 979 passing yards to his name this season and I still trust him over Pittsburgh's second-year quarterback Mason Rudolph who has thrown for just 286 yards over his first two starts. 

The Steelers have won eight straight in the series, but the Bengals must like their chances of ending that streak tonight. We can also note that the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and they've kept it close at Seattle and Buffalo. First to 20 points should win this one, and I'm happy to take the points on the visitors. 

Under is 5-1-2 in Bengals last 8 games overall. Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games overall.

8* play on UNDER.

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOTAL

This is a showdown between two teams that have struggled on the defensive end through the first three games of the season. Both sides are allowing an average of 31.3 ppg and 400+ yards of total offense. The Redskins have seen all three contests fly over the total, and I think this will turn into a shootout. 

The Giants are 1-2 on the season following a thrilling come-from-behind 32-31 win over Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones completed 65 percent of his passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns versus zero interceptions in his first career start. Make no mistake, this is a team that can move the ball and it ranks seventh in the NFL for total offense. 

Sure, the injury to Giants' running back Saquon Barkley is not ideal, but I don't think they'll have any trouble to move the chains against a weak Redskins secondary. 

The Giants have the worst pass defense in the league with 332.3 passing yards allowed per game and they allowed Bucs and they let a mediocre QB like Jameis Winston to throw for 380 yards. While Washington QB Case Keenum looked terrible against the Bears Monday night, keep in mind that he was up against one of the best defenses in the league. 

10* play on OVER. 

SUPER EARLY NFL TOTAL NO BRAINER 

After backing the under in every New England Patriots' game this season (and cashing 2/3), it should not come as a surprise to see that I expect a defensive battle when they visit the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. 

Pats QB Tom Brady has maneuvered the team up and down the field pretty much at will through the first three games of the season, but they've played a soft schedule (Pittsburgh, Miami, New York Jets) and has not faced a defense even near the quality of Buffalo's yet. The home town crowd will be loud and make the play calling for the visitors very difficult, and we can also note that Julian Edelman is considered day-to-day with a rib injury. As for the Patriots defense, it's simply elite and has yet to allow an offensive touchdown this season.

Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in September. Under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games in September. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NCAAF): MIKE'S TOP RATED SATURDAY NIGHT TOTAL

The Washington State Cougars gave up 67 points and 657 yards of total offense in a loss to the UCLA Bruins last week. On a more positive note, they did also put up 63 points and QB Anthony Gordon had a huge game with 570 yards passing yards and nine touchdown passes. 

Utah's elite run defense is among the best in the nation, but the Cougars won't even try to run the ball and Utah gave up 351 passing yards against USC Trojans last week.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Utes will have quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Mose likely sidelined due to injuries. They do however have good depth in the backfield and I think they'll have a gameplan in place how to exploit this far from elite Cougars defense. 

Over is 5-1 in Utes last 6 home games. Over is 8-2 in Cougars last 10 road games.

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL

The Chicago Bears have opened the season 1-1 with both games being low-scoring affairs, and that's a trend I like to continue when they visit the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. 

The Skins have looked suspect on the defensive side of the ball in first giving up 32 points to the Eagles in Week 1 and 31 points to the Cowboys last week. We can, however, note that Chicago has averaged just 9.5 points and 263.5 yards of total offense through the first two weeks. 

Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky really struggled in the 10-3 Week 1 loss to Green Bay and was not much better Sunday, throwing for only 120 yards at Denver. Note that Trubisky has completed just over 58 percent of his passes and he has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season ... Washington QB Case Keenum has put up decent numbers, but I doubt he can do it against an elite Bears defense that has held its opponents to 292.5 yards per game. 

Under is 7-0 in Bears last 7 games overall. Under is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

10* play on UNDER. 

JETS @ PATRIOTS AFC EAST BOOKIE BLASTER TOTAL

We cashed with the under in New England Patriots' games in both Week 1 and Week 2, and I'm going back to the well for a third straight time here when they host division-rival NY Jets Sunday afternoon. 

The Pats D blanked Miami last week, and here it'll face an already suspect Jets offense down to its third-stringer QB (Luke Falk) with Sam Darnold (mono) and Siemian (IR, ankle) out. The visitors will have to rely on running back Le'Veon Bell to move the chains, but that will be easier said than done with New England leading the league in total defense while allowing just 2.6 yards/rush attempt.  

Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 games overall. Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (CFB): MIKE'S TOP RATED SATURDAY NIGHT TOTAL

The Illinois Fighting Illini are coming off their first loss after taking a 34-31 loss to Eastern Michigan last Saturday. 

That game flew over the total, but they had opened the season with two straight unders and just 26 points allowed. I think we'll see a relatively low-scoring affair when they host the Nebraska Cornhuskers Saturday night. 

Nebraska's offense has been inconsistent, and I would not make too much of its 44-8 rout of Northern Illinois last week. Both teams are strong against run holding opponents to 2.2 yards/rush attempt. If the passing game is not clicking, moving the chains will become a struggle no matter who has the ball. 

Under is 12-4 in Fighting Illini last 16 games in September and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

10* play on UNDER. 

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies are 2-1 on the season, but they covered the spread in their line loss, a 24-10 setback at the top-ranked Clemson Tigers. The No. 9 Auburn Tigers are a perfect 3-0, but they've played an easy schedule and all home games, and I think they'll come up short here as a road underdog Saturday afternoon. 

There will no doubt be an extremely hostile environment for the visitors at Kyle Field, and this will be Auburn QB Bo Nix's first road game. Nix has completed just 52.4 percent of his passes with four TDs and two INTs, so the team has had to rely on its running game to move the chains. That will be easier said than done to repeat here though, facing a Texas A&M run defense that has allowed only 83.7 yards per game. Even Clemson was held to a modest 120-something rushing yard against it. 

The Aggies meanwhile are well-rounded on offense, entering this contest 29th in the nation through the air and tied for 61st in rushing offense. Additionally, we can note that the Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games while Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Texas A&M will win and cover, but it won't be pretty so I'll like the home team to win and cover in a low-scoring affair. 

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED SUNDAY TOTAL

The New England Patriots limited Big Ben and the Steelers and to three points and 308 yards of offense last week. We won with the under in that Sunday night matchup, and I'm going back to the well as I don't see this turning into a shootout. 

Miami looked awful on both sides of the ball in its 59-10 loss to the Ravens in Week 1 so there's not really a surprise to see the reigning champions favored by almost three touchdowns here. We can, however, note that Miami usually plays them tough, particularly here at Hard Rock Stadium where they won outright as a 9.5-point underdog last year. 

The bookmakers obviously expect a very different result in this contest, and I also expect the Pats to take a comfortable lead and then control the clock and possibly remove their starters to minimizing the risk of injuries. Also, I don't think Bill Belichick wants to embarrass Dolphins coach Brian Flores who was defensive play-caller for the team that won the Super Bowl last year.

Under is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (CFB): MIKE' TOP RATED TOTAL (SUPER EARLY)

The Penn State Nittany Lions explosive offense has had no trouble to run up the score in blowout victories against weak opponents in the first two weeks of the season. Both those games went over the total, and they're a rather sizable favorite again here when they take on rival Pittsburgh Panthers Saturday afternoon.

Pittsburgh is coming off a pair of low-scoring games, but the offense looked better in its 20-10 win over Ohio last time out. Junior QB Kenny Pickett threw for a career-high 321 yards and a TD against as the team racked up 481 yards of total offense, 160 of those yards on the ground. Penn State put a 45-13 come-from-behind beating on Buffalo last week, but it did give up 184 rushing yards and I expect to see Pitt put some points on the board in this contest.  

We can also note that the over is 7-1 in the Lions last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S STEELERS @ PATRIOTS BEST TOTAL BET

The defending Super Bowl champions New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers for one of the best inter-divisional rivalries in the NFL Sunday night. If you expect late-night fireworks I think you'll be disappointed as this looks like a low-scoring contest. 

Note that five of New England's last seven season openers have gone under the total and, four of its last five meetings with the Steelers failed to surpass the closing number. They clashed once last year, a game the Steelers won 17-10. 

Pittsburgh has since lost/got rid of star wide receiver and troublemaker Antonio Brown, and while it's almost certainly the right call in the long run, it'll be hard to replace him in the short term. Instead, we now find Brown with the Pats, which certainly puts an extra interesting spin to this matchup ... 

We'll see two aging quarterbacks in Tom Brady (42) and Ben Roethlisberger (37) under center, and while I'm certainly not saying either is done yet, they might need a couple of games to get the old legs going following the off-season. 

Under is 36-16 in Steelers last 52 road games and 11-3 in their last 14 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games on fieldturf.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (CFB): MIKE'S TOP RATED SATURDAY TOTAL

Both teams opened the season with a shutout win, but I expect points to come fast an easy on both ends of the field in this clash. 

The No. 22 Syracuse Orange are coming off a 24-0 shutout of Liberty, but here they'll face a Maryland offense that amassed 623 yards and hung 79 points in their rout of Howard. Terps QB Josh Jackson threw four touchdowns and the team scrambled for 317 yards on the ground with five scores. 

As for Cuse quarterback Tommy DeVito, he struggled against the Flames completing just 17-of-35 passes for 176 yards with two picks, but he simply has to come up with a better outing here. 

Neither defense was put to the test last week, but that will definitely not be the case here. The contrast for how this game is likely to play out might come as a shock for the defenses, and they might find themselves ill-prepared. 

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED SUPER BOWL LIII BEST BET

The BIG GAME is finally here; New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams for all the marbles in Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. 

The Pats have played high-scoring contests throughout the postseason, and I expect another shootout here against an explosive Rams team that averaged 32.9 ppg through the regular season. 

New England's 41 year old signal caller Tom Brady showed that age is just a number as the GOAT had little trouble to march his team down the field when it really mattered in the AFC Championship Game. 

The Patriots and the Chiefs combined for 38 points in Q4 alone of their AFC Championship clash, with 24 of the points coming in the last 3:32 of the quarter. We could very well see a similar scenario here with two clutch quarterbacks more than capable of marching down the field when it really matters. 

Over is now 7-1 in Patriots last eight playoff games and this Patriots team will have to score plenty of points here to have a shot at winning. 

10* play on OVER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED NFL PLAYOFFS TOTAL

The over/under is 5-11 in the New England Patriot games this season and they've allowed 12 points or fewer in each of their last three at home (16.6 ppg against in Foxboro on the season).

Here Pats coach Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for the LA Chargers, and I think he'll have his defense on point leading to a low-scoring contest. 

The Chargers have stepped it up defensively in recent weeks and have seen four of their last five go under the total. They held Baltimore to 229 yards of offense in a 23-17 win in the opening round of the NFL playoffs last week but mustered also only 243 yards themselves. 

Chargers QB Philip Rivers has a poor career record against NE and he was sacked 32 times during the regular season. We can note that the Pats forced eight turnovers in the final three games of the regular season and there will be a lot of pressure on Rivers to deliver as RB Melvin Gordon is struggling with a knee injury he sustained during last week's wild-card win. Gordon rested at practice on Wednesday and is unlikely to be 100 percent by Sunday.

Under is 8-1 in Patriots last nine games overall. Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE WEEK (NFL): MIKE'S TOP RATED 10* WILD CARD WEEKEND TOTAL

We won with our NFL regular season total of the year on Bears @ Vikings in Week 17, and I'm going with another big bet on the under in a Bears game in Wild Card Weekend. 

The Eagles took full advantage of Chicago's win over Minnesota to sneak into the postseason with a 24-0 win over the Redskins at Washington. Pretty big QB concerns here for Philly though with Carson Wentz definitely out and backup Nick Foles banged up after taking a hit on the ribs last week. 

The Bears own the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, but they have been held to 15 points or fewer in two of their last four games and haven't scored more than 24 in any game during that stretch. They own the No. 11 rushing offense in the NFL but Philly is good at stopping the run allowing 96.9 ypg. 

Under is 6-2 in Bears last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

10* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE YEAR (NFL): REGULAR SEASON TOTAL

There's no secret that two of the NFL's top defensive teams will clash at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis Sunday afternoon, but I still think the books have set the total too high. Note that under is 21-16 (56.8%) in games with a total closing under 42 points in NFL this season. 

Chicago owns the league's fourth-best defense and has the No. 3 seed in the NFC locked in. They must defeat the Vikings and hope for the 49ers to defeat the LA Rams in Los Angeles to jump into the No. 2 seed, not impossible but at the same time not very likely either... They've been held to a total of 53 points through their last three games and under is 8-1 in Bears last nine games in December.

The Vikings rank third in overall defense and will be highly motivated as they can clinch a wild card with a victory (or a tie). "For us, playoffs have already started," Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said. "We know that we have to win this game in order to get into them. There has to be heightened sense of energy and focus and study time. You have to make sure that your bodies are rested and understand it is going to be a physical football game on Sunday."

I expect Minnesota to take an early lead and then controlling the clock. Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and I think the circumstances call for another low-scoring affair.

10* play on UNDER. 

BRONCOS @ RAIDERS MONDAY NIGHT NO-BRAINER

The Denver Broncos have been involved in low-scoring battles lately with each of their last five going under the total. Their last two contests have seen just 34 and 33 points respectively and I don't see this game going over the posted number. 

Oakland has struggled offensively all season, averaging only 18.6 ppg, and QB Derek Carr was sacked five times as the Raiders were held to 16 points at Cincinnati last week.

The Broncos won the first meeting of the season 20-19 at Denver in Week 2 and under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

8* play on UNDER. 

GAME OF THE MONTH (NFL) TOTAL

The Chicago Bears tenacious defense has allowed a total of just 23 points through the last two games. The Bears have already clinched a postseason berth but I think they'll still put up a fight here as they look to improve their seeding in the NFC playoffs. 

The San Francisco 49ers have no shot of making the postseason but have held Denver and Seattle to a combined 37 points in back-to-back wins. They're allowing 23.0 ppg home at Levi's Stadium which is well below their 26.6 ppg season average overall. 

Under is 8-3 in Bears last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 7-1 in their last eight games in December. Under is 11-3 in 49ers last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

10* play on UNDER.