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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-22-18||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 8||3-5||Push||0||12 h 35 m||Show|
CHAD BETTIS (R) vs. BROCK STEWART (R)
Despite of finding ways to win the Colorado Rockies offense, has really struggled, especially on the road, averaging 3.8 rpg on a lowly .218 BA, and ranks 26th in K% against RHP (24%), 25th in RPG on the road (3.8), and 27th in WOBA over the last 2 weeks (.269) . the Rockies team OPS of .703 was 23rd in baseball before todays tilt. I'm betting who ever starts for the Dodgers will find a way to keep their very inconsistent offense from unloading in any big way. Their only saving grace is a pitching staff that has been in top form on the road, and todays starter for the Rockies Bettis is part of this qualifying data as he owns a stingy 1.83 ERA in 6 games a visitor. He will face a Dodgers nine, that owns a equally ugly .222 BA while scoring an average of 3.6 rpg at home in Chez Ravine. Everything points on a low scoring sleeper that fails to eclipse the number.
Under is 4-0-1 in Bettis' last 5 road starts. Under is 20-5-1 in Bettis L/26 starts.
Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Rockies starter CHAD BETTIS is 11-0 UNDER L/11 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%).
|05-22-18||Braves +114 v. Phillies||3-1||Win||114||12 h 34 m||Show|
BRANDON MCCARTHY (R) vs. VINCENT VELASQUEZ (R)
I said it before this season started, that the Atlanta Braves would be a dark horse possibility, and I'm now saying that their recent top tier play is not an anomaly, but their opponents the Phillies, strong performance to this point in the season might be. The Braves have been especially strong on the road where they have recorded 17 wins in 26 games. They lost yesterday to the Phillies, by a 3-0 count, but today I expect the Braves to bounce back.
Note:Braves are 4-0 in their starters McCarthys last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game . Braves are also 5-1 in McCarthys last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Phillies starter Velasquez has seen his team lose 15 of his last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record like the Braves
.Phillies are also just 5-12 in Velasquezs last 17 home starts.VELASQUEZ is 0-8 L/8 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season dating back to last season.Phillies are 1-5 in Velasquezs last 6 starts vs. Braves. ATLANTA is 6-1 against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. ATLANTA is 10-2 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. ATLANTA is 8-2 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.
Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline
|05-21-18||Rockies +162 v. Dodgers||2-1||Win||162||12 h 38 m||Show|
GERMAN MARQUEZ (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
The Dodgers are on a 5 game win streak, after finishing off a east coast road trip by sweeping the Nationals . But now after travelling all the way back out to the West coast last night and now tired and in the precarious situation of having to get acclimated to being home again. I now expect the Dodgers will be prone to a let down situation against a Colorado team that travels well as is evident by their 18-11 away record and are 13-4 record against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season Note: LA DODGERS are 7-13 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season
The Rockies will send right-hander German Marquez to the mound Monday . He has pitched his best ball away from the launching pad known as Coors field posting a 2.25 ERA in his five road starts. He is an under rated hurler who gives the Rockies a great opportunity for a outright underdog victory. Dodgers are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter .
LA DODGERS are 7-15 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. COLORADO is 8-0 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive overs this season.
Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline
|05-20-18||Dodgers v. Nationals -137||7-2||Loss||-137||4 h 17 m||Show|
ALEX WOOD (L) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Strasburg the Nats starter today is in top form of late, going 3-0 along with garnering a stingy 2.61 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill and gets my support here today vs a LA Dodgers team tht has lost 19 of their L/27 games vs a RHP starter. Meanwhile, Alex Wood the Dodgers starter is a off a good effort last time out, but that has not been a recipe for continued success as his team is 0-4 when he is off a quality outing.
STEPHEN STRASBURG is 14-0 against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons. WOOD is 6-18 against the money line in day games in his career.
Someone seems to like Sunday baseball. STRASBURG teams when he starts are 28-4 against the money line when playing on Sunday .Nationals are 58-18 in Strasburgs last 76 starts. Nationals are 14-3 in game 3 of a series.
MLB All favorites with a money line of -150 or more on the opening line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 88-21 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the moneyline
|05-19-18||Orioles v. Red Sox -1.5||3-6||Win||110||10 h 2 m||Show|
DYLAN BUNDY (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
Baltimore enters this game as poster boys for road futility in Major League Baseball having garnered 13 straight losses. Tonight I'm betting on their tourist visas getting cancelled again and for the O's to end up on the wrong side of the lopsided score.
After three rough starts in a row, Bundy the Os starter rebounded to limit the inconsistent Rays to two hits in seven scoreless innings on Sunday. That I'm betting was an anomaly and he will revert back to his previous form in this spot vs a much more explosive BoSox offense. The righty is 3-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 appearances against Boston. Meanwhile, Porecello started his season 5-0 , but has had a couple of down games, but I'm betting he will respond here at Fenway where his is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA this season.
BUNDY the Orioles starter is 3-12 against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons with the average margin deficit clicking in at Opp 6.4 Balt 4
BALTIMORE is 1-12 SU in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average loss coming of 2.7 rpg.BALTIMORE is 4-20 SU vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better with the combined average victory coming by 2.2 rpg.BALTIMORE is 7-34 L/31 against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more with the average combined loss coming by a whopping 3.3 rpg.
The Red Sox are 10-0 SU as a home favorite off a game as a favorite in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and have won these ten games by an average of 4.90 runs, scoring an average of 7.90 runs per game in those tilts.
Play on Boston Red Sox on the -1.5 on the RL
|05-18-18||Indians +160 v. Astros||1-4||Loss||-100||11 h 30 m||Show|
MIKE CLEVINGER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Clevinger the Indians starter is in top form, as is evident by his 3-0 record and stingy 2,70 ERA. He has pitched some of his best ball on the road recording a 10-5 record along with a 3.22 ERA in 24 appearances (19 starts) . The Tribes right hander will now face a Houston team that has been futile at home from a offensive perspective scoring just 3.9 rpg on a nasty looking .223 team BA. Clevinger, is 1-1 along with a minuscule 1.04 ERA in two starts versus the Astros. It must be noted that HOUSTON is 0-6 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season and is is 0-5 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. Clevinger qualifies under both these trends.
Meanwhile, the Astros will return fire with Charlie Morton who is also in top from with a 5-0 record along with a 2.03 ERA. He is looking good , but according to my cross reference pitcher vs Batting order power rankings, does not matchup excessively well vs the Tribes hitters.Edwin Encarnacion and Jason Kipnis have Homered in a combined nine at-bats versus Morton, who is a lowly 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in two starts versus Cleveland.
Cleveland has won 24 of the 34 meetings since the Astros joined the AL in 2013, including five of six during this campaign. Indians are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
HOUSTON is 9-16 L/25 against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games.
MLB Any team (HOUSTON) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season are 43-75 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB Home teams (HOUSTON) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 4.20 or less ) (AL), cold hitting team - batting .190 or worse over their last 3 games are 21-43 L/5 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline
|05-18-18||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9||8-1||Push||0||8 h 24 m||Show|
JON LESTER (L) vs. HOMER BAILEY (R)
Bailey the supposed ace of the Reds is struggling , with a 5.59 ERA and a .285 opponent batting average. He's allowed 12 homers in 48 1/3 innings of sub par work. He got a win last time but gave up 10 hits and is fortunate . Bailey last faced the Cubs in successive starts last season Aug. 16 and 22, allowing six runs in 8 2/3 innings. According to my own cross reference pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well vs the Cubs, and could easily get blasted again. Note: Chicago has drawn 47 walks over the past 10 games after earning only 18 free passes in its previous 11 contests and they should continue to get base runners in scoring positon here vs this type of pitcher and score above their season average of 5 rpg, and help eclipse this total.Over is 8-2 in Baileys last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 13-3-1 in Baileys last 17 starts vs. Cubs.
I also expect the Reds capable hitters to do just enough damage vs Lester a Cubs hurler that must be respected, but that has also shown some inconsistencies over the last couple of seasons especially against sub par teams. Over is 7-0 in Lesters last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 12-5 in Lesters last 17 starts overall. Over is 5-0-1 in Lesters last 6 road starts vs. Reds. Over is 5-0 in Lesters L/5 starts overall vs Reds.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.CINCINNATI is 20-7 OVER (+12.9 Units) as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.
MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CINCINNATI) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA 2.70 or less ) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 36-8 OVER L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.8 rpg scored.
|05-17-18||Rockies +129 v. Giants||5-3||Win||129||14 h 34 m||Show|
CHAD BETTIS (R) vs. JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R)
Right-handers Chad Bettis (4-1, 3.12 ERA) of the Rockies and Jeff Samardzija (1-2, 6.94) of the Giants are the two starting pitchers in this series opener.
Bettis in 5 road starts owns a stingy 1.35 ERA and that is where his 4-1 record has been garnered. Meanwhile, his Giants pitching opponent SAMARDZIJA has not liked pitching at home in AT &T this season as is evident by recording a ugly 8.30 ERA in two starts, and recently has notched a equally nasty 7.36 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill, allowing 12 ERS spanning 14.7 innings of sub par work. Needless to say Bettis is in better form and gets my backing here tonight.
Giants are 1-5 in Samardzijas last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 1-4 in Samardzijas last 5 starts vs. Rockies.
BETTIS is 30-19 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. SAMARDZIJA when he starts has seen his team go 15-32 L/47 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125.
COLORADO is 14-1 against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base dating back to last season, which happened vs SD last time out in a 4-0 loss. COLORADO is 11-4 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. COLORADO is 10-4 against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.SAN FRANCISCO is 18-33 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game over the last couple of seasons.
Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline
|05-17-18||Padres v. Pirates -155||4-5||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
ERIC LAUER (L) vs. CHAD KUHL (R)
To open the series Thursday, the Padres will send out rookie left-hander Eric Lauer (1-2, 8.27 ERA) against Pirates right-hander Chad Kuhl (4-2, 4.17). I don't regularly lay a lot of lumber, but the averages according to my head to head power rankings are on our side in this spot, and worth the extra outlay. The Pirates have clobbered southpaws like Lauer this season, for an average 5.9 rpg via powerful .286 team BA. Yes, I know the Padres have been playing decently of late, but that has not been a recipe for success for this team In the past as is evident by their 8-25 record against the money line after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last couple of seasons.
MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (SAN DIEGO) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, in May games are just 18-59 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline
|05-16-18||Rays -101 v. Royals||5-3||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
JACOB FARIA (R) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
Hammel the KC Royals starting pitcher today is currently struggling as is evident by having allowed 20 ERS in L/3 starts spanning 15 innings on 24 hits and 5 HRS.
I know the Rays are dealing with some nagging injuries, but I'm betting they still have enough offensive weapons to get the job done this afternoon vs a Royals team that are ranked last in the majors with a 5.48 ERA, including 5.64 from the bullpen - the second-highest average in mlb..
KANSAS CITY is 5-20 against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-13 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (KANSAS CITY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 33-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or worse), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 47-17 L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the TB Rays to win on the moneyline
|05-15-18||Reds v. Giants UNDER 8||3-5||Push||0||12 h 25 m||Show|
TYLER MAHLE (R) vs. TY BLACH (L)
|05-15-18||Blue Jays v. Mets OVER 7.5||2-12||Win||108||11 h 50 m||Show|
JAIME GARCIA (L) vs. NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R)
Right-hander Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 3.09 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Blue Jays left-hander Jaime Garcia (2-2, 5.40 ERA). These pitchers are being a little over rated here by the linesmakers here tonight, and despite of both the Mets and Jays struggling a bit with their offenses of late , my own power rankings suggest these batting lineups should under nominal circumstances to do well enough to be breach this total. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.2 rpg vs RHP this season, and the Mets have averaged 4.1 rpg overall, but should up these numbers vs a Jays pitcher in Garcia that has garnered a 8.36 road ERA this season, and a ugly 8.10 ERA in his L/3 starts overall allowing 13 runs in 13 unlucky innings.
Market moved this Totals line from a 7 to 7.5 very quickly after opening. I'm betting the market has it right. I know we are now dealing with having to win by more run , but in the recent past Toronto is 21-3 OVER when the total is 7 or less .
Note: The Blue Jays entered Monday ranked fourth in the majors with 56 homers.
TORONTO is 9-1 OVER in road games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored.
Over is 12-2 in Blue Jays last 14 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 9-2 in Blue Jays last 11 interleague road games.Over is 6-2-2 in Blue Jays last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 17-5 in Mets last 22 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 13-6 in Mets last 19 vs. American League East.
MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (TORONTO) - starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing, ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games are 55-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate on the blind.
Play on the OVER
|05-15-18||Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5||2-4||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
ALEX WOOD (L) vs. WEI-YIN CHEN (L)
It seems everyone in the media and baseball circles continues to keep crapping on the Marlins . I'm not arguing that their not bad, but sometimes there is value attached to their games because of these perceptions presented us by the media propagandists. Today is one of those games, as an equally disappointing team the LA Dodgers are being pegged as big favorites. The LA DODGERS are just 3-16 SU as chalk of -125 to -175 this season and are far from viable favorites against any team in MLB in their current form. Meanwhile, Chen the Marlins starter despite of his struggles is 15-6 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher in his career and seems to wake up just long enough to perform at optimal strength before going back to sleep under these types of circumstances. Chen goes against a Dodgers team that struggles against southpaws like him, as is evident by their 3.3 rpg game output and nasty looking .220 team BA. CHEN is 2-0 in his career when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.105 and gets the nod today on a value +1.5 RUNLINE situation.
|05-14-18||Rockies -101 v. Padres||6-4||Win||100||14 h 38 m||Show|
TYLER ANDERSON (L) vs. JOEY LUCCHESI (L)
Anderson the Rockies starter has a eight-game unbeaten streak come to an end Wednesday, when he allowed four runs over five innings in an 8-0 set back to the Los Angeles Angels. I'm expecting he will bounce back here today.Anderson is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in five career starts versus San Diego, including a 1.50 ERA with no-decisions in two outings this season.Rockies are 4-0 in Andersons last 4 road starts. Anderson goes against Padres team off a win yesterday, but in the recent past this has not necessarily been a good omen for the Fathers as they have lost 7 of their L/9 after notching a victory.
Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Padres are 4-9 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings and 4-1 L/5 here in beautiful San Diego.
COLORADO is 12-3 against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) this season. COLORADO is 13-5 against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. COLORADO is 11-4 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.COLORADO is 5-0 against the money line in road games in May games this season.
Play on the Colorado Rockies to cash on the moneyline
|05-13-18||Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8||6-4||Loss||-100||12 h 52 m||Show|
JEREMY HELLICKSON (R) vs. ZACK GODLEY (R)
Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals starter is currently in top form, and owns a minuscule 1.02 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill, and I once again expect he will provide his team, with a another strong effort vs a struggling Arizona offense, that has only twice in their L/9 games scored more than 3 runs, and have averaged just 3.7 rpg at home this season. Hellickson has seen his L/5 starts vs the DBacks stay under the total. HELLICKSON is 20-7 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last few seasons. Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 overall.
Meanwhile, the DBacks starter Zack Godely has pitched his best ball at home this season where has garnered a stingy 1.96 ERA in 3 starts, allowing just 4 ERs in more than 18 innings of work. He goes against a Nationals offense that has a .246 BA that registers under the Mendoza line . Under is 3-1-1 in Godleys last 5 home starts..Under is 5-0 in Godleys last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
ARIZONA is 15-1 UNDER in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. ARIZONA is 13-0 UNDER in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. .ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
ARIZONA is 15-4 UNDER in home games this season. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER in home games in May games this season . Arizona games have seen a combined average 6.8 rpg scored this season.
WASHINGTON is 32-14 UNDER against NL West opponents over the last couple seasons. WASHINGTON in 14 games against the vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season have seen a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona. Home plate umpire Foster has seen 5 of his L/7 appearances go under the set total.
MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (WASHINGTON) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts are 48-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
|05-13-18||Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 8.5||3-5||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L)
Wainwright comes off the DL for his first start since April 17 when he looked great vs the Cubs. His surgically repaired elbow was sore but his effort was a quality one. Wainwright is 6-3 in his career against the Padres with a 2.07 ERA and a .238 opponents' batting average. . His ERA against the Padres is the second lowest among active starters to Clayton Kershaw's 1.94.He is only 1-3 against the Padres at Petco Park, but he does own a stingy 2.63 ERA in those games.
Under is 4-0 in Wainwrights last 4 starts vs. National League West.
Under is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 8-2-2 in Cardinals last 12 overall.
Meanwhile, the Padres starter. Richards despite of a tepid start to his season, has produced top tier results vs the Cards going 3-0 with a miniscule 0.95 ERA in his three starts against the Cardinals at Petco Park. Richards numbers may not be inspirational overall, but the hurler has pitched well outside of the National League West as was evident vs the Washington Nationals when he allowed three runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts over eight innings Tuesday for his longest outing the of the season and his best performance since Opening Day. Note: RICHARD is 17-4 UNDER in his career at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 . RICHARD in his L/25 games overall when the total is 8 to 8.5 has seen a combined average score of 6.8 rpg scored. Richards L/4 games vs a winning team have gone under.
These teams have gone UNDER in 4 of the L/5 meetings here and I'm betting another low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number.
MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 125-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on UNDER
|05-13-18||Royals v. Indians -1.5||2-11||Win||100||3 h 59 m||Show|
DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)
Kluber the Indians starter had a 4 game winning streak snapped last time out, and will be very ready to bounce back in this spot vs the KC Royals. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Kluber was 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA.
Meanwhile, Duffy KCs starter . In three starts against the Indians last year, he was 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA. His team has also lost his L/6 starts vs the Tribe. DUFFY is 3-12 L/15 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 2.2 rpg.
MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL are 101-20 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 3 rpg.
Play on the Indians on the RUNLINE -1.5
|05-12-18||Rangers +1.5 v. Astros||1-6||Loss||-100||9 h 56 m||Show|
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
The Astros entered their three-game series with the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park averaging just 3.8 runs at home compared with 5.9 runs on the road. Texas has enough offensive fire power to take out a team like the Astros that is struggling with run production at home, making them dangerous underdogs in this spot. Last season, the Astros averaged 4.9 runs at home with an .812 OPS while scoring 6.2 runs per game on the road with an .834 OPS, so their is definitely an issue , and something that must be examined. Tonight I'm betting that Rangers Right-hander Doug Fister (1-3, 4.02) is a capable of giving his team a chance to cash as underdogs in this spot. Fister is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in his four career starts against the Astros.
There is value here on the moneyline but I'm recommedning we take the bonus +1.5 runs for what will still be a plus payday if my betting assumptions on this game are correct .
Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the Runline +1.5
|05-12-18||Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||2-1||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.52 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Troy Scribner (2017: 2-1, 4.18)
Strasburg the Nationals starter has recorded back-to-back quality starts after going 0-2 over his previous three trips to the hill. Strasburg owns a 3.59 ERA in 10 career starts. He goes against , a Arizona team that has scored more than 3 runs only twice in their L/8 games, and that averages just 3.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile, Scribner the DBacks expected starter at Triple A-Reno this season has struck out 24 in 25 1/3 innings of work. "I'm anxious to show everybody what I can do," Scribner told reporters, "and hopefully I can show them why I belong here and can stay here to help the team." He will be primed to perform, and should provide a decent deterrent to a struggling group of hitters that are not accustomed to his stuff. With that said, I'm expecting a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total.
ARIZONA is 14-1 UNDER in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. ARIZONA is 11-0 UNDER in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. ARIZONA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
Under is 5-1-1 in Nationals last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-1 in Strasburgs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 in Strasburgs last 10 road starts. Under is 24-11-3 in Nationals last 38 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 7-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 overall.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona.
|05-12-18||A's v. Yankees OVER 9||6-7||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Athletics RH Andrew Triggs (3-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Domingo German (0-1, 2.66)
These starters today have looked capable this season, but both according to my power rankings are susceptible to being lit up by two explosive offenses. Yesterday, the Athletics smashed out 14 hits - four home runs - to romp to a 10-5 win in the series opener. I'm expecting more fireworks this afternoon. Note: Oakland has averaged 5 rpg on the road this season , while the Yankees have scored an average of 6.4 rpg at home.
The Athletics are 8-0 OVER in franchise history with Triggs on the hill when he had more K's than hits allowed in his last start which happened last time out.
NY YANKEES are 9-1 OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season with a combined average score of 12.4 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 8-0 OVER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 12.8 rpg scored.NY YANKEES are 13-4 OVER in home games against right-handed starters this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored.
|05-11-18||Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5||3-1||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
Nationals RH Max Scherzer (6-1, 1.74 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Matt Koch (2-0, 2.13)
Koch the DBacks starter tonight vs the Washington Nationals made his season debut in relief but has made four starts since, allowing fewer than three earned runs in each while working at least six innings three times. Meanwhile, Three time Cy Young award winner Scherzer is in top form and continues to be a strike out king, as is evident by reaching double digits in strikeouts in five of his eight trips to the hill this year, and should once again give his opposition the DBacks fits here tonight. With that said, I'm expecting a pitcher duel in the desert tonight and for this combined score to stay on the low side of the number.
ARIZONA is 13-1 UNDER in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. ARIZONA is 11-0 UNDER in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.ARIZONA is 8-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
Under is 4-0 in Kochs last 4 home starts.Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-1 in Nationals last 10 during game 2 of a series.Under is 34-16-6 in Nationals last 56 road games.Under is 23-11-3 in Nationals last 37 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings including last nights 2-1 Nationals 11 inning win.
|05-11-18||Royals v. Indians -1.5||10-9||Loss||-110||13 h 47 m||Show|
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Hammel the Royals hurler has been what is regarded as a inning filler for his team of late. The right handers performances are less than respectable and in his L/3 trips to the hill he has garnered a bloated 7.00 ERA. Add to that he's backed by a bullpen that owns a ugly 7.37 road ERA and you have a recipe for Cleveland's offense to feast . Meanwhile, Cleveland's starter Bauer has been a steading presence in his teams rotation and owns a 2.52 ERA , and a stingy 1.91 home ERA. He will be backed by a offensive attack that has done his best work at home this season averaging 5.4 rpg via a solid .272 BA. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with a value -1.5 RL situation here this evening in Ohio with the Indians.
HAMMEL is 0-9 L/9 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game losing by an average of 3.5 rpg and is 1-10 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse dating back to last season with the average loss coming by 2.6 rpg. (Team's Record) HAMMEL is also 1-19 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career with the combined average deficit clicking in at 3.5 rpg (Team's Record)
MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 41-3 L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 3.7 rpg.
Play on the Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline
|05-11-18||Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5||10-9||Win||104||12 h 47 m||Show|
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Jason Hammel the Royals starter is in struggling form and has garnered a 7.00 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. He faces a Indians side that has done its best offensive work at home this season, averaging 5.4 rpg via stable .272 BA .It must be noted that the Indians are 7-0 OVER at home after a game in which Francisco Lindor had multiple hits.( He had two vs the Brewers last time out in a 6-2 road win) The Tribe have gone over the total by an average of 7 runs per game in this situation. I'm betting the Indians will do some damage here tonight and almost single handily eclipse this number.
CLEVELAND is 31-10 OVER vs. a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored.
Over is 7-0 in Indians last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 12-1 in Indians last 13 home games.Over is 5-2 in Royals last 7 road games.
MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) are 50-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
|05-10-18||Red Sox v. Yankees -121||5-4||Loss||-121||12 h 58 m||Show|
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Sabathia the Yankees starter is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19, and that includes a top tier effort in his last trip to the hill as threw six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday. Sabathia, owned the BoSox last season going 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in four starts and is my choice tonight vs another strong pitcher in Rodriguez, who despite a s strong start to his campaign has given up 5 runs in back to back trips to the hill. It must be noted that after a strong start to their season , Boston has lost 9 of their L/17 and not operating at a high level , while the Yankees are red hot winning 7 straight and look to be run away freight train that you want to ride and not stand in front of in their current form.
BOSTON is 3-8 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. NY YANKEES are 20-4 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. NY YANKEES are 12-0 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. NY YANKEES are 9-1 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.
SABATHIA team when he starts is 21-9 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game. SABATHIA when he starts has seen his team go 8-0 L/8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 .
Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
Yankees are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 home games.Yankees are 4-0 in Sabathias last 4 starts.Yankees are 17-4 in Sabathias last 21 home starts.Yankees are 42-17 in Sabathias last 59 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Yankees are 5-0 in Sabathias last 5 starts vs. Red Sox.
Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyliine
|05-09-18||Pirates -108 v. White Sox||6-5||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
Pirates RH Trevor Williams (4-2, 2.63 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (0-2, 2.43)
Pirates starter Williams has held opposition hitters to a .193 batting average, and he also owns a viable 3-1 record and an ERA of 1.69 in interleague play, and must be respected here as a short favorite. The Pirates currently own a 7-2 record in interleague play this season, and have the edge vs a struggling White Sox team has lost 4 straight games and 8 of their L/9 overall. Pittsburgh also owns a 23-9 against the AL Central dating to June 15, 2015. I know the Pale Hose starter Lopez has been very capable this season, but with a offense that is capable of very little run support he is currently fade material. Note: HURDLE is 34-18 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better as the manager of PITTSBURGH.
The White Sox are a team that rarely takes advantage of any teams weaknesses because of a inconsistent offense as is obvious by their 4-16 record against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season and struggle against strong defensive teams like the Pirates as they are 2-13 against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 1-9 against the money line in home games in day games this season.
MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 10-41 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors on the blind.
Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline
|05-08-18||Indians v. Brewers +1.5||2-3||Win||103||12 h 7 m||Show|
COREY KLUBER (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
The Indians have a recent history of not playing well enough to win consistently in interleague play . The reasons are complex but the results are obvious. note: Indians are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games. Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Indians are 1-4 in Klubers last 5 interleague starts.Indians are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
Not only have the Indians struggled in interleague play in the past, but so far this season, they have had issues garnering road wins, losing 9 of their 15 games. Needless to say, even though the Indians have a top tier hurler on the mound a win is not a guaranteed thing. With that said, we have value taking +1.5 runs on the RL with the Brewers , and that's what I'm recommending we do.
MILWAUKEE is 24-14 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start .Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.MILWAUKEE is 9-0 L/9 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite which was the case vs the Pirates last time out on Sunday.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. CLEVELAND is 1-7 L/8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs which happened vs the Yankees in their last game.
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the RL +1.5
|05-08-18||Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8||7-1||Push||0||6 h 9 m||Show|
JAKE ODORIZZI (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R)
Martinez the Cards starter this afternoon vs the visiting Minnesota Twins has allowed just three runs over 40 2/3 innings in his L/6 starts, and currently is in top form. Meanwhile, Ordizzi the Twins starter despite of some inconsistent efforts is a stable pitcher that can produce quality starts.Odorizzi is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts versus the Cardinals. I'm betting both these starting pitchers go long enough and strong enough to help keep this combined score on the low side of the Total.
MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1or less earned runs in his last 2 outings.ST LOUIS is 63-33 UNDER in home games against AL Central opponents
Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 3-0-1 in Martinezs last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Under is 6-1 in Martinezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 interleague road games.
Under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in St. Louis. Under is 11-0 in the last 11 meetings.
|05-07-18||Giants v. Phillies OVER 9||0-11||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. ZACH EFLIN (R)
I'm betting the San Francisco Giants will continue their dominance against the National League East this week in Philadelphia at least from a offensive output perspective. They just beat up on the Braves scoring 24 runs in a 3 game sweep, and have scored , 9,9, 11, 4 respectively in their L/4 games overall. They go against a starter in Eflin that has looked good in 6 innings of work sicne being recalled from the minors, but Eflin in 22 major league starts before this season as been sub par at best. Three of those games were against the Giants. Eflin is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in those trips to the hill, and I'm betting he gets beat up on today. Meanwhile, the giants starter Samardzija who has been injured this season, and still getting 100% healthy has a negative history in this park, as is evident by a 15.43 ERA in four career appearances (one start) at Citizens Bank Park, allowing 12 hits and 12 runs in seven innings. Samardzija also has an 8.18 ERA against the Phillies in 11 career appearances and could also get roughed up in this spot.
Over is 11-4 in Eflins last 15 starts overall.Over is 8-3 in Giants last 11 overall.Over is 8-0 in Eflins last 8 starts vs. National League West.Over is 6-0 in Eflins last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.
|05-06-18||Dodgers v. Padres +150||0-3||Win||150||6 h 8 m||Show|
ROSS STRIPLING (R) vs. ERIC LAUER (L)
Dodgers Manager ROBERTS is 14-23 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs which happened yesterday vs the Padres In a loss. LA DODGERS are 6-12 against the money line after a loss this season. LA DODGERS are 3-11 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
MLB team (LA DODGERS) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -200 or higher, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 15-30 L/5 seasons for a for a go against conversion rate of 68% on the money-line.
Play on the SD Padres to win on the moneyline
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