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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-25-17||Oregon State v. Oregon -25||10-69||Win||100||58 h 26 m||Show|
Last season Oregon State took out Oregon by a 34-24 count in their last game of the season, which resulted on the Ducks not getting a bowl bid. It was ugly, and the boosters were in a nasty mood. Now with redemption at hand, and the no mercy rule, thrown out, I expect the Ducks to come out here looking to annihilate their opponent. When their top tier QB Justin Herbert has been under center this season the Ducks average around 48 points per game in offense, as was the case last week in a beat down of pretty good looking Arizona side by a 48-28 count. I expect at least that many points today for Oregon in a complete game one sided victory vs the beavers 118 ranked D, that is allowing 466 YPG.
OREGON ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game losing SU by an average of 28.6 ppg.
Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-25-17||Georgia Southern +6 v. UL-Lafayette||34-24||Win||100||70 h 4 m||Show|
Georgia Southern after being completely asleep at the proverbial wheel, all season long, finally woke up last week, and decided to go on a rampage by destroying South Alabama by a 52-0 count as underdogs. Now behind a revived running game that averaged 5.4 ypg last week, I expect they use the momentum of that win to come out and take down another opponent. Needless to say , interim HC Chad Lundsford ability to wake these kids from their naps, makes me feel confident they can answer the bell again vs a UL Lafayette football program that has been highly inconsistent this season and just 2-2 in their L/4 overall. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points . Note: UL Lafayette is just 3-13 ATS L/16 as home favorites.
By the way I know the Georgia Southern D, has been porous at times this season, but LA LAFAYETTE is just 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play and 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games when playing against a lower tier team with a win % of .250 or less.
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-11 ATS L/12 in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2.
CFB Road underdogs like Georgia Southern - with a lower tier defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 80-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover
|11-25-17||Michigan State v. Rutgers +13||40-7||Loss||-110||128 h 50 m||Show|
In between some ugly performances Rutgers has actually played some decent ball this season, and from time to time have looked competitive as wins vs Purdue, Illinois, and Maryland would suggest. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents the Spartans are not the type of team that crushes their opponents, against even those sides that have looked inferior , and have no wins of 10 points or more in conference play this season. I'm betting Rutgers elevates their game looking for an upset and DAntonio and company do what they do best, grind out a slow sleepy win. With that said ,I'm recommending we take the points.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). MICHIGAN ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 as a road favorite .MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS L/19 in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.
CFB home team vs. the money line like RUTGERS - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 29-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB home team vs. the money line like Rutgers - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Rutgers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-25-17||Alabama v. Auburn +5||14-26||Win||100||80 h 15 m||Show|
It must be noted that this Alabama group is banged up right now with key defensive deficiencies. Yes, the Tide are deep and another 5 star recruit takes over for the injured player, but theirs a reason why one guy got the start over the other guy. Needless to say, as was the case last week against Mississippi State , the Tide, are currently short handed, and their offense is still not as fluid as it needs to be and must add they are not unbeatable. Despite of my great respect for the Tide, the Auburn football program they play today, are hitting their stride, and looking very much like a contender for the National Championship. Since their early season hard fought loss to Clemson, the offense has jelled , and comes in on a roll, scoring 40 points or more in seven of its last eight games.The Auburn defensive front has also been amazing, and are run stoppers extroidnare – as was the case vs Georgia ( 46 yards) and have not allowed 200 rushing yards on the year – and their secondary is equally brilliant as was evident against stud QB Nick Fitzgerald and the Mississippi State as they held him under a 35% completion rate. In a tilt that could mark a changing in the guard in the SEC , I'm betting Auburn gets us the cover, and are a strong candidate to do the unthinkable , get the outright upset vs Alabama. This game has the feel of a late FG decision, making getting points with Auburn a viable investment option.
AUBURN is 14-1 ATS L/15 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.
Nick Saban in his history as a coach has never beaten a .750 or better Auburn squad going 0-4 SU lifetime.
CFB home underdogs like Auburn that have scored 40 or more points in each of their L/3 tilts, and facing a team off a win by 3 or more points are a bankroll expanding 20-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB home team vs. the money line like AUBURN - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 25-6 for a 81% conversion rate dating back 25 seasons.
Play on the Auburn Tigers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-25-17||Boston College v. Syracuse +3.5||42-14||Loss||-105||52 h 12 m||Show|
Both starting QBs for Boston College and their hosts Syracuse are expected to miss todays game. Boston without QB Anthony Brown have proven over an over again, that without him under center , moving the ball is like moving a 2000lb rock, which I'm betting will be their downfall today. Add to that Boston College already has a Bowl game locked up, and probably looking ahead to greener pastures , and you have a situation where the home dog will be motivated to prove they are better than some of their recent results suggest and finish off their season on a high note in front of their own alumni. Note: With Dungey out a QB for the Orange , they will concentrate on pounding the ball on the ground, and with that said, it must be noted that BC has allowed 5 ypc, this season and are vulnerable via the opposing ground game.
BC has covered on 5 of their L/21 as a road fav vs a team off consecutive losses.
CFB home team vs. the money line like Syracuse - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 30-6 SU L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. ( Louisville clobbered Syracuse 56-10 last time out) .\
Play on Syracuse to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-24-17||Iowa v. Nebraska +3.5||56-14||Loss||-102||56 h 54 m||Show|
HC Mike Riley is most likely on the way out of the door at Nebraska. However, the old ball coach has a little something left in his proverbial tank, and I'm betting he motivates his downtrodden team to a cover here at home, vs a Iowa football program, that looks to be living on their laurels of a recent upset win vs Ohio State. Since that monumental win the Hawkeyes have lost two straight and have been outscored by a combined 62-29 count. I know Nebraska has also lost two straight but in the past have proven resilient from a ATS standpoint cashing 13 of his L/14 after consecutive losses.
NEBRASKA is 29-9 ATS L/38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.NEBRASKA is 15-3 ATS L/18 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.NEBRASKA is 21-8 ATS L/29 after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. ( Last week the Cornhuskers lost 55-44 to Penn State)
Play on Nebraska to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-24-17||South Florida +11 v. Central Florida||42-49||Win||100||78 h 12 m||Show|
South Florida (9-1) and UCF (10-0) according to my own power rankings and cross reference matchup systems are very evenly matched and the point spread should be much closer to a one possession spread . With the pressure of staying undefeated a deterrent for UCF, this situation also offers up an opportunity for a strong dog to pull off what would not be a surprising upset. South Florida has conclusively beaten UCF in their L/2 meetings, and today I'm betting they get us the cover on a bloated line again.
My own projections estimate that S.Florida will score between 22-28 points which is a good omen , considering the Bulls are 16-4 ATS L/20 in road games when they score 22 to 28 points.
CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 87-37 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs like SOUTH FLORIDA - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
South Florida to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-23-17||Giants +7.5 v. Redskins||10-20||Loss||-105||26 h 19 m||Show|
After watching a motivated victory crumble into a crushing overtime defeat Sunday at New Orleans, the Redskins come into this game in an emotional let down situation, and are now at a disadvantage vs a NY Giants team off a rousing OT win vs KC last week. Add to that the redskins are banged up , After placing four players on injured reserve Tuesday, and will not even attempt a full practice before the game. You can smell trouble brewing on the field for them this week. Look for Eli Manning and company who is 17-8 SU as a starter against Washington to be a catalyst this week. He has completed 493 of 841 passes (59 percent) for 5,934 yards with 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions vs. the Redskins. He will go against a Redskins' defense has fallen to 31st in points allowed per game.
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS L/41 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
The Redskins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game. Five of those 18 games were straight up wins , with only two coming by 3 points.
The Giants are 14-0 ATS and 12-2 SU off a home game in which they rushed the ball at least ten more times than their season-to-date average.
NFL Underdogs or pick like the Giants - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 50-23 ATS L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the NY Giants to cover
|11-23-17||Chargers -2 v. Cowboys||28-6||Win||100||22 h 8 m||Show|
Chargers HC Lynn, who played high school football at Texas small-town powerhouse Celina and college football at Texas Tech, said it's one of the two biggest days in the NFL season. So you can imagine how hopped up he is to be here and what a win would mean to him vs the banged up staggering Cowboys. Los Angeles has won four of its last six, and playing at a high level and must be respected here a short road favorites. Meanwhile, Dallas Star running back Ezekiel Elliott (suspension), All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith (back, groin) and the most important part of the defense, linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring), are all out of the lineup making Dallas fade material today.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games losing SU by an average of 10 ppg.
Chargers are 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Dallas.
NFL Home teams like Dallas - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are 16-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on LA Chargers to cover
|11-23-17||Vikings v. Lions +3||30-23||Loss||-105||19 h 36 m||Show|
The Detroit Lions were the last team to beat the red hot Minnesota Vikings, back in in Minnesota on Oct 1 ( 14-7). The Lions matchup well against the Vikings according to my own power rankings, as Detroit is bidding for its third sweep of the season series in four years. I'm recommending we take the points with the home team here today on thanksgiving day.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS L/9 in November games over the last few seasons.MINNESOTA is 26-43 ATS L/69 as a road favorite.
The Lions are 12-0 ATS/SU on turf when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards winning SU by an average of 9.17 ppg and covering by more than 8.79 ppg.
The Vikings are 0-14 ATS / 3-11 SU on the road off a TD-plus win in which they did not score in the first quarter with the 3 SU wins coming by 3, 3 and 4 points.
NFL team LIONS- mistake-free team ( 1.25 TO/G or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 39-15 ATS for a 72% conversion rate for bettors dating back 24 seasons.
Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-19-17||Eagles v. Cowboys +4||37-9||Loss||-115||96 h 13 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys cannot really afford another loss, at this juncture of the season, and will be hell bent on taking out the red hot Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday night deep in the heart of Texas. Add to that the Cowboys have revenge on board for last seasons divisional play off loss, to these same Eagles and you have a hyped up and desperate side to back. It must be noted that the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS L/7 on Sundays playing with revenge with 6 of those games SU victories and are 31-16 ATS L/47 as home dogs.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play.DALLAS is 34-18 ATS L/52 after a loss by 14 or more points which happened last time out.
NFL Road favorites like Philadelphia - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 19-45 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-19-17||Bucs v. Dolphins||30-20||Win||100||90 h 4 m||Show|
TB look like viable bets here as they come off a 15-10 win vs the Jets last week. I expect them to carry that confidence of that victory here this week, into this tilt vs a Miami side that has been outgained in 7 of its L/9 games by an average of 66 ypg. The Fins are worse than their 4-5 record, and must not be over estimated in their ability to cover or win here even at home. The Fish have failed to cover 5 straight in this series, and are 1-8 ATS overall. Look for Buccaneer B Ryan Fitzpatrick to just enough to get team to the promised land in game of two downtrodden sides.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS L/15 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game .TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS L/9 in weeks 10 through 13 over the last few seasons.TAMPA BAY is 17-6 ATS L/23 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games .
NFL team vs the money line like Miami - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 3-29 SU dating back 24 seasons for a go against SU conversion rate of 91% for bettors.
NFL Home teams like Miami - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 18-51 ATS since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on Tampa Bay to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-19-17||Rams +2.5 v. Vikings||7-24||Loss||-110||90 h 51 m||Show|
Its taken me some time to be persuaded that the Rams are for real. Well this week, I've finally come to the conclusion they are. After consistently beating up on opponents winning 4 straight and outscoring their L/3 opponents by a 117- 24 count their cross reference power rankings have skyrocketed. With that said I;m sold on the Rams abilities and will back them today vs a what I still believe is a over rated Minnesota Vikings group that showed some vulnerabilities defensively last week by allowing Washington to put 30 points on the board against them. I'm also betting Case Keenum the upstart QB of the Vikings does not matchup well against this Rams smash mouth defense very well, and could find himself on his back quite a bit this week.
NFL team vs the money line like the LA Rams - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 25-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Rams to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-19-17||Redskins v. Saints OVER 51||31-34||Win||100||89 h 16 m||Show|
This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015 season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins.
WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER L/9 in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total)
The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Nevada v. San Diego State -16||23-42||Win||100||87 h 60 m||Show|
Nevada owns a 2-8 record on the season, thanks in part to what must be considered an atrocious defense, especially on the road where they have allowed an average of 40.4 ppg. The Wolfpacks only saving grace has been a sometimes explosive offense, but today against a very strong San Diego State D, allowing an average of just 18.8 ppg their in big trouble vs a team that is 18-0 SU and 12-1 ATS L/13 when playing against a team with a losing record , with he average score clicking in at SD St 37.4 opposition 8.5. Add to that Rocky Longs, great late season runs of late that have seen him go 9-0 SU 8-0-1 ATS in his L/4 games of the season when coming off a DD ATS win which happened last time out in a 52-7 ATS blasting of San Jose State. No mercy rule in effect here tonight.
CFB road team vs. the money line like Nevada - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games against opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 1-34 SU losing SU by an average of 26.1 ppg.
CFB home team vs. the money line like San Diego State - team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 29-1 SU winning by an average of 24.2 ppg.
Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||NC State +2 v. Wake Forest||24-30||Loss||-110||24 h 3 m||Show|
No. 19 North Carolina State wants this game badly and is on the verge of something special if they can get a 9 win season, stay in the top 25 and garner a big pay day with a top tier Bowl appearance. Needless to say North Carolina State is very motivated entering this tilt against a over rated Wake Forest program that despite of a explosive 64-43 win last week, vs Syracuse still allowed a whopping 621 yards on defense, and in the game before that allowed 710 yards to Notre Dame. I just don't like them today vs a a football program that has owned them of late winning three straight SU/ATS by an average of 22 points per game and are 8-1 L/9 in this series when the Deacons are off a win. I'm also betting on Wake Forest to be in an emotional letdown state , after last week astounding come back win.
WAKE FOREST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Wake Forest - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Demon Deacons - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games are 13-44 ATS for a76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on N.C State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Rice v. Old Dominion -8.5||21-24||Loss||-110||80 h 47 m||Show|
I've kept an eye on Old Dominion , as I have been looking for improvement over the season, and I can see their on a upward trajectory. Last week vs FIU as DD road dogs, they took a 37-30 win in a game they actually dominated despite of the slight 7 point difference. The Monarchs freshman QB Steven Williams, continues to improve as their starting QB was injured earlier in the season. He had a 168 yards rushing, and 3 TDS in last weeks game, and give Old dominion the edge this week, vs a Rice team that can be best described as futile, allowing 40 or more points in 5 of their L/6 games. Note:OLD DOMINION is 7-0 ATS L/7 vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game Last year winning SU by an average of 13.7 ppg. the Owls lost to the Monarchs by a 45-42 count as 7 point favorites, and look like weak dogs this week vs a Old Dominion side that is 16-0 SU L/16 as chalk, and 10--1-1 L/12 against the spread.
CFB Road underdogs like Rice - lower tier team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Old Dominion to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Pittsburgh +15.5 v. Virginia Tech||14-20||Win||100||66 h 12 m||Show|
After back to back losses to Miami Fl and Georgia Tech I'm sure this Virginia Tech Hokies group feels downtrodden. With really nothing left o play for I cannot see them performing at optimal speed here today giving credence to my recommendation on taking a Pittsburgh team that needs a win badly to get a Bowl invite. In the past no matter which team has been better at the time, it seems the Panthers have found a way to be competitive as their 9-1 ATS and 6-3 SU record in this series would indicate. Overall Pittsburghs been a tough out on the road of late cashing 6 of their L/7 away as dogs, and are 6-2 ATS L/8 as conference dogs of 13 points or more,.
CFB road team like Pittsburgh - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 95-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors .
Play on Pittsburgh to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Cincinnati -3 v. East Carolina||20-48||Loss||-120||100 h 44 m||Show|
E.Carolina has struggled for most of this season , thanks to a defense, that has allowed 45 ppg during their 2017 campaign , and also a offense that has generated just 23.8 ppg. I know visiting Cincinnati may not inspire bettors but this is a very winnable game for them. The Bearcats have shown life, and some upward trajectory in games vs Navy, SMU and a recent upset win vs Tulane, and are a viable side to back in this tilt of downtrodden sides. In other words , the lesser of two evils, is the choice here today. ( Lay the FG with the Bearcats)
E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return losing SU by an average of 11.2 ppg.
E CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS L/11 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 and 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.E CAROLINA is 2-12 ATS L/14 against conference opponents and 0-6 ATS L/6 in November games .E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS L/9after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Carolina - after playing a game at home, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Cincinnati Bearcats to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-18-17||Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia||28-14||Win||100||72 h 18 m||Show|
Texas since their ugly opening loss to Maryland have steadily improved under Tom Herman, and I don't think we have seen them at their very best quite yet and could easily see them in top form today as they need one more win to secure a bowl bid. Meanwhile, West Virginia already has a bowl game in their December plans, and may not be as motivated as their opponents. With that said, I'm betting we have an edge vs a W.Virginia side that has not faired well as home chalk of late vs .500 or above conference opposition going 3-11 ATS . Meanwhile, the LongHorns HC Herman is 8-1 ATS L/7 as a underdog lifetime and has covered 11 of his L/13 vs a power 5 football programs and proved their metal in a recent road win vs Iowa State a home win vs KState, and two hard fought close losses to Oklahoma State by 3 points and a 5 point loss to Oklahoma. Note: My own projections tell me Texas will score 22 points or more, which is a good omen, as TEXAS is 6-0 ATS L/6 when they score 22 to 28 points over the last few seasons.
CFB road team like the Longhorns - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Texas to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3||38-41||Win||100||60 h 41 m||Show|
Western Kentucky does not look like the powerhouse it has been over the last few seasons, but Middle Tennessee State according to my own cross reference power ranking suggest that neither are the Blue raiders. Both sides have identical records . I know that Midd Tenn State has won 2 straight games convincingly , but those were against lowly UTEP and Charlotte. Meanwhile, W.Kentucky played Vanderbilt and Marshall very tough in back to back games, and despite of losing were looking better than the pundits might have you expect. Yes, the Hilltoppers as mentioned above may not be as potent some of their past incarnations, but are very viable home underdogs in this spot and have more than 50% chance of pulling off a straight up win.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
W.Kentucky is 6-2 ATS L/8 at home while Midd Tenn State is 1-6 ATS L/7 CUSA road tilts.
W KENTUCKY is 22-8 ATS L/30 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-16-17||Titans v. Steelers -7||17-40||Win||103||37 h 33 m||Show|
Tennessee enters this game with 4 straight wins as does their hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers. but according to my own cross reference power rankings and head to head matchup stats the Steelers are superior side.
Steelers HC Tomlin is 13-3 ATS L/16 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with the average score clicking in at Steelers 27.8 opposition 18 . That number is very close to my own projections which makes the Steelers in my humble opinion a viable wagering option in this spot.
It must also be noted that Thursday night favs are 18-0 SU L/18 and 16-1-1 ATS in a non division tilt with a total of 41 or more attached to it.
Tennessee is 1-6-2 ATS L/9 vs NFC north opposition, and their QB Marcus Mariota is just 1-7 ATS away L/8 off a win.
NFL Underdogs or pick like Tennessee - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-15-17||Eastern Michigan +3.5 v. Miami-OH||27-24||Win||100||35 h 11 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan thanks to a usually staunch D, has been very competitive all season long, and must not be underestimated as dog this Wednesday night despite of a sub par 3-7 record. Meanwhile, Miami O, despite of a 6-4 record has been very inconsistent this season, as recent losses vs downtrodden Kent State and Bowling Green demonstrates.
HC of E. Michigan Creighton is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards or less per return.E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 8-1 ATS L/9 as a road underdog.
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Miami Ohio - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are just 15-43 ATS the L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 46.5||41-16||Loss||-110||99 h 56 m||Show|
After getting crushed for 50 plus points by Philadelphia last time out, I'm betting the Broncos , settle down and go back to basics this week and pound the ball on the ground consistently in an effort to stay competitive and eat clock against the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. The usually staunch Denver D, looked tanked last week, as they were playing their third straight road game. Now back in the high altitudes of the Rockies their D should be ready to get back to what they do best, and that is partake in smash mouth football. Meanwhile, the Patriots, after a slow start on defense, are starting to jell into top form, allowing 14, 17,7, 13 points respectively in their L/4 ( 12.75 ppg) and will give the offensively challenged Broncos all they can handle this week. With that said, I'm expecting a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers do.
Note: AFC dogs, of 10 points or less, who gave up 50 points or more in their L/game on the road, have gone under 9 of the L/10 times dating back 10 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 38.1 ppg going on the board.DENVER is 13-3 UNDER L/16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average of 37 ppg going on the board.
NFL Road teams against the total like New England - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record ARE 24-3UNDER during the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 26-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.
NFL Home teams against the total like Denver - off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER dating 5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for Totals bettors.
NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 22-4 UNDER for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Cowboys +3 v. Falcons||7-27||Loss||-117||118 h 52 m||Show|
The Cowboys enter this game against the Falcons having won three in a row–all by double-digits and by a combined 55 points. I was not a believer in them for much of this season, but mind is changing quickly. Even without star running back Elliott( if he does not get another injunction on his suspension) are still a team to be reckoned with, as QB Dak Prescott has proven immune to a sophomore jinx. The Atlanta team the Cowboys are playing are not the same team that made it to last years Super Bowl and the team as whole is struggling, especially on offense which is a surprise. The Falcons have been held to less than 20 points four times in their L/8 games, which is not a good omen vs a Dallas D, that not allowed more than 19 points in their L/3 games. Take the points.
Atlanta HC Quinn is 4-16 ATS L/20 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. HC Garrett is 6-0 ATS L/6 after outrushing opponent by 50 or more yards in 3 straight games.
Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
NFL Home teams like Atlanta - good rushing team (4.5 YPR or more) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.
Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars||17-20||Win||100||116 h 39 m||Show|
The San Diego Chargers have been extremely competitive all season long, and were within striking distance against the New England Pats last time out losing by 8 points, which ended a three game win streak. Now off a bye week, I'm betting the Chargers will be extremely recharged and competitive this week, and could even spring the out right upset against a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Jacksonville Jags side. I know the Jags are off two impressive DD wins but they have not been good bets in the past after those type of results as is obvious by the following trends. JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS L/12 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 4-14 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.
LA CHARGERS is 11-2 ATS L/13 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games .
Chargers are 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 meetings in this series and 2-0 SU/ATS in the 2 most recent meetings over the L/3 seasons.Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a win.
Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Chargers - off a road loss, a lower tier team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 108-61 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a long term 64% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road teams like the Chargers - off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Vikings v. Redskins +1.5||38-30||Loss||-115||115 h 44 m||Show|
I'm not buying into Minnesota being viable road chalk here this week. I know they have won four straight games, but the wins came against Green Bay after star QB Rodgers was knocked out of the game with a collarbone injury, and against inconsistent Chicago and Baltimore sides, and lowly Cleveland. Now they have been tagged with the fav role, against a Washington side that maybe starting to jell in a big way , after holding Seattle to 14 points on the road in a 17-14 come from behind victory,. Andy yes, I do know the Vikings are off a bye week, but in the past they have not taken advantage of the extra rest as is evident by 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 games following a bye week.
Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.Redskins are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS L/13 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season.MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.
NFL Underdogs or pick like Washington - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after allowing 14 points or less last game are a long term strong proposition 129-77 for a 63% conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.
Play on the Washington Red Skins to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Bengals +4.5 v. Titans||20-24||Win||100||114 h 58 m||Show|
Tennessee has been playing better ball of late winning three straight, but they have not always dealt well with success in the past, even when playing against lower tier teams and have been less than successful from a ATS perspective, as the following data/trends will explain.TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season dating back a few seasons and 1-14 ATS L/15 against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season and 0-6 ATS L/6 vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing 12 or more yards per return . In their history this franchise has continually under achieved for their betting backers going just 14-32 ATS L/46 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Tonight I'm betting on a fast improving Bengals side that has quietly won 3 of their L/5 games to not go down without a fight here and get us the all important cover.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS L/29 against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.Titans are 11-36-4 ATS in their last 51 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bengals - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 70-36 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road teams like Cincinnati- off a road loss, in November games are 69-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-12-17||Browns +13 v. Lions||24-38||Loss||-120||113 h 53 m||Show|
Lions are off a big win on Monday night football vs GB and on short rest, could easily be in a letdown spot vs a side I'm sure their not getting up for. I know Cleveland does not inspire bettors, but they are off a bye week and on fresh legs and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this line. It must be noted that Lions are 0-6 ATs L/6 against rested opposition with a less than .500 record, and have FAILED to cover 16 of their L/23 as 8 or more point chalk. Considering 0-5 or worse NFL teams are 18-3-1 ATS L/22 in games following a bye week, I'm betting we have value with this ugly dog. So folks, please just plug your noses, hold your breath and take the points with the Browns this Sunday.
NFL Road teams like the Browns - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 49-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72%conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road underdogs or pick like Cleveland - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-10 ATS L/34 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||TCU v. Oklahoma -7||20-38||Win||100||111 h 30 m||Show|
Oklahoma now 8-1 on the season showed themselves to be one of the most potent offensive teams in the Big 12 last week and maybe the nation as they went into Stillwater and took a 62-52 shootout affair vs Oklahoma State. While some teams might tank after an emotional slugfest like that I'm betting instead the Sooners will be motivated to get the win here tonight as they look to make up for a shocking loss to a Iowa State side, that they may have under estimated, back on Oct 7. A victory here for Oklahoma vs a 8-1 TCU program ,that also lost to Iowa State 14-7, will also pad their resume, as both the Sooners and Horned Frogs must still be considered outside contenders for the national championship play off. Another loss for either team and their dream is over, so this is a must win situation for both sides. Here in their own building in front of what will be a frenzied home crowd I feel the Sooners have the edge.
By the way folks I respect TCU and their vaunted D a great deal, but theirs an old adage, that goes something like this . Defense wins championships , but offense win games. Whether you agree or feel this statement is irrelevant or not.... I still say- Advantage Sooners via the arm of Baker Mayfield and the nations best offensive line.
OKLAHOMA is 8-1 ATS L/9 when playing against a team with a winning record , with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 16.3 ppg.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. TCU is 2-11 ATS L/13 in games played on a grass field, losing by an average of 9.4 ppg.
CFB Home favorites like Oklahoma - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games are 45-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB home team vs. the money line like the Sooners - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more ) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less), after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 52-17 SU L/25 seasons with the average combined margin of victory coming by 11.5 ppg,( 33.4 to 24.7)
Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover
|11-11-17||Tennessee +11 v. Missouri||17-50||Loss||-105||122 h 44 m||Show|
Missouri has beaten up on three straight teams, two of them came against lower tier opponents UConn and Idaho, and the last time out against a Florida Gators program that looks like they have given up on their season. Previous to that they lost 4 straight against better programs , like Auburn, Georgia, Purdue, and Kentucky. Meanwhile as bad as Tennessee has been they have been competitive for the most part this season, and matchup well vs a defenseless one way Missouri squad that depends on their offense alone to win games. Only Alabama has put more than 29 points on the board in their L/8 vs the Vols ,a D that is capable of slowing down Missouri in this spot. I know old Rocky Top might not inspire bettors this season, but my own numbers and projections suggest this game is settled by a TD or less making this a viable underdog betting situation.
TENNESSEE is 18-7 ATS L/25 vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game.
Tennessee is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 meetings in this series.
Home favorites Missouri - off 1 or more consecutive unders, excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game are 108-166 ATS for a 61% conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.
Play on the Tennessee Vols to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||New Mexico +19 v. Texas A&M||14-55||Loss||-110||61 h 7 m||Show|
Kevin Sumlin the HC of Texas A&M is in trouble. His team since their opener against UCLA , when they blew a huge 34 point lead, and than lost , has been reeling. It was obvious during the season despite of top tier recruiting, this was a team with little chemistry and focus. That was never more evident than their recent back to back home losses vs Mississippi State and Auburn by DD beat downs. Now the mood is dire to say the least, and these young men in the Texas A&M football program looked disinterested , which does not bode well for them coming into this non conference game with little meaning attached to it. I know New Mexico may not inspire many bettors with their recent performances, which includes 11 turnovers in their L/4 games, but they actually matchup well from a ATS perspective vs a side like Texas A&M. I expect the Lobos via a solid ground attack to just be happy eating clock up and here and pounding the rock , which will allow them to stay within the number. Note:TEXAS A&M is 12-29 ATS L/41 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.
In the past its not like Sumlin seems to get his team up for lower tier competition and has a history of seeing his team play down to their opponents on a consistent basis ,as this trend will point out. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return.
TEXAS A&M is 0-8 ATS L/8 in the second half of the season dating back to last season.TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS L/6off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival .NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite
CFB Home favorites like Texas A&M - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 37-75 ATS for a long term go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors.
Play on New Mexico to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||USC v. Colorado +13.5||38-24||Loss||-104||78 h 48 m||Show|
USC is off two impressive wins vs two over rated Arizona teams in their L/2 trips to gridiron and now the media/pundits and linesmakers are in love with them again. I know their opponents today Colorado have not been that impressive this season with a 5-5 record, but must not be underestimated especially here in their last home game of the season. In the past the Buffs have been a good bet in their last tilt as hosts cashing 10 of their L/11 tickets for their backers . It must also be noted that the Trojans are just 0-10 ATS L/10 on the road as DD chalk against .500 or greater opposition.
CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like USC- viable team - outgaining their opponents by 1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 20-57 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||120 h 39 m||Show|
Auburn (7-2) before this season started was high on my list of sleeper teams to fight for a national championship and nothing has changed my mind. The loss at Clemson earlier this season was a heartbreaker, and the loss vs LSU a shocker because of a lack of focus in the end half. But do not be fooled by those results as this is an extremely strong Auburn football program at the moment and they had the opportunity to win both those tilts . I know undefeated 9-0 Georgia continues to get a great deal of accolades, and are an extremely competent team with a big win vs top tier Notre Dame , but I will not be surprised if their undefeated streak comes to an abrupt end here this Saturday. Look for a hard fought tilt, that has the feel of an upset written all over it. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here.It’s a great opportunity for Auburn to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation and expect they will play like their lives depend on it this week. Take the points.
AUBURN is 13-1 ATS L/14 in home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game and is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game.
CFB home team vs. the money line like Auburn - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against an excellent defensive team (16 PPG or less) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 23-6 SU the L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate, thus getting points here based on this trend alone makes for a viable wagering opportunity.
Play on Auburn to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||Iowa +13 v. Wisconsin||14-38||Loss||-115||119 h 4 m||Show|
Iowa is off a resounding 55-24 win vs Ohio State last week, and have been competitive all season long, losing by just 2 points to Penn State at home and one score ( TD losses) to Northwestern and Michigan State on the road in hard fought 17-10 defensive affairs In their only 3 losses on the campaign . With that said, I'm betting on Iowa having the defensive strength allowing just 18.1 ppg to be competitive against Wisconsin this week at just under a two TD dog. Note: IOWA is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 50 points or more last game .Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a huge beat down of Indiana last week, by a 45-17 count, but have been bad bets in the past ATS under those circumstances as they are just 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games after a win by 28 or more points and 1-9 ATS L/10 after a cover as a double digit favorite.
Wisconsin is perfect so far on the season, but I'm betting if their perfect season continues it will not come without difficulties vs a under rated and under appreciated foe.
IOWA is 25-5 ATS L/30 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.
Iowa has covered 6 of the L/9 meetings in this series. Badgers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Play on Iowa to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-11-17||UL-Lafayette v. Ole Miss -18.5||22-50||Win||100||113 h 55 m||Show|
My own projections make this a huge win for Ole Miss. Actually one of my biggest of the season behind an SEC team that is improving as their campaign has progressed. I'm estimating that Ole Miss wins this game by 24 plus points on a value line. LA Lafayette D , has allowed 37.4 ppg on the season against average opponents for the most part , while Ole Miss has averaged more than 42 ppg in offensive production at home. Here today I will not be surprised by a 50 point out put by the Rebs and subsequent cover vs a side that has averaged about 21 ppg in offense on the road.
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||16 h 44 m||Show|
NC State are off two hard fought grueling affairs vs Notre Dame and than Clemson last week. Now deflated and in a let down situation they look vulnerable vs a rested Boston College team that is playing its best football in years.The Eagles destroyed and owned Florida State 35-3 before their bye week, beating the Seminoles for the first time since 2009 and becoming the first team to hold FSU without a touchdown since 2008 and the first to keep the 'Noles under 10 points since '09. Also N.C. State's has had problems in the past vs BC . The Wolfpack offense has also struggled vs Boston College. Considering the Wolfpack are dealing with nagging injuries to running back Nyheim Hines ( ankle injury ) and versatile back Jaylen Samuels missing plays after he was banged up in the game against Clemson, things look dire for them this week, and if they get the win it won't come easy and they won't I'm betting cover the number as road favs
NC STATE is 7-20 ATS L/27 as a road favorite of 7 points or less.
CFB Road favorites NC State - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-31 ATS for a go against conversion rate of 80% for bettors.
Play on Boston College to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-10-17||Washington v. Stanford +6||22-30||Win||100||64 h 44 m||Show|
Stanford despite of a 6-3 record including last weeks 24-21 loss to Washington State is a team that must be respected as home underdogs. I know their opponents Washington are highly rated, but I'm not that impressed by their resume, despite of the pundits being in love with them and feeling they deserve national play off recognition. With that said, I'm betting on a revenge minded Stanford crew that lost to Washington last season by a humiliating 44-6 score to be hell bent on pay back and knocking the Huskies off their perch. It must be noted that Washington is only 11-34 SU L/45 on the road vs above .500 foes, while the Cards are 7-0 ATS L/7 as conference home dogs, and 7-1 ATS overall as 4 or more point dogs, and an amazing 13-0 SU L/13 following a SU favorite loss with HC Shaw at the helm, including 11-0 SU/ATS L/11.Shaw is also 6-0 ATS L/6 after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach and is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
STANFORD is 16-5 ATS L/21 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game which happened against Oregon last time out in a 38-3 win.
CFB Road favorites like Washington - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 13-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.
Play on Stanford to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-09-17||Georgia Southern +17.5 v. Appalachian State||6-27||Loss||-110||48 h 57 m||Show|
App State no longer looks like a top tier program. Yes, their still to respected because of pedigree and the recruiting is still decent, but they have recently lost their last two games as favorites and once against look like they are being over rated as they have been out yarded in 4 of their L/5 games. I know Georgia Southern may not inspire bettors, but under new HC Chad Lundsford, who is 2-0 ATS, they have gradually played better ball , and considering their top tier ability to run the ball, always remain a dangerous underdog, especially vs a DD line like this.
APPALACHIAN ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games vs. lower tier defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game and 2-12 ATS L/14 in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56.APPALACHIAN ST is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after the first month of the season .
CFB Home favorites like App State - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are just 37-75 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-08-17||Toledo v. Ohio +4||10-38||Win||100||23 h 34 m||Show|
The Bobcats enter this game with a explosive offense that has put 40 or more points on the board in 3 straight games, and must not be underestimated at home as dogs. I know Toledo is a top tier MAC team, but they are off a grueling hard fought 27-17 win vs Northern Illinois last week and could easily be in a letdown spot here this Wednesday night and go to 1-5 ATS L/6 after taking on NIU.
OHIO U is 7-1 ATS in games played on turf this season Ohio HC .Solich is 13-4 ATS L/17 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season and is 5-0 SU/ATS in his L/5 home game as dog and have covered 4 straight as conference home dogs.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Ohio U- quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 51-20 ATS L10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Ohio to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys||17-28||Loss||-110||79 h 29 m||Show|
The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs head to Texas this weekend to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-3 on the season, and showing a lot of inconsistencies. Tonight against the Chiefs I'm betting the home teams problems will be amplified as key offensive cog Boyz RB Elliott is expected to miss for the first time this week as he begins his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy. Needless to say the Cowboys offense will be muted and the flip side I'm betting the D will also get slashed, as Dallas has had big problems with explosive offenses so far this season and top tier quarterbacks . The Rams' Jared Goff and the Packers' Aaron Rodgers ripped apart the Cowboys secondary in back-to-back losses a few weeks back. That's not a good omen for Dallas vs Chiefs man under center Smith, who has passed for 2,181 yards and 16 TDs with no interceptions this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. DALLAS has been unable to take advantage of leaky Ds, and are 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.DALLAS is 0-6 ATS L/6 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 Last few seasons.
The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS covering by 8.59 ppg on the road when the line is within three of pick after a home win in which they were outgained.
Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-05-17||Redskins v. Seahawks -7||17-14||Loss||-110||71 h 17 m||Show|
Seattle has owned sub par .600 or less opposition at home, going 29-2 SU L/31 only failing to cover in 8 of those tilts , and are 14-1 ATS against these type of foes looking to reap revenge like Washington. It's never easy travelling from east to west, and I'm betting the Redskins are at a disadvantage from a body clock standpoint. With both teams operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Seattle 4 straight wins - Washington 1-3 L/4/0-4 ATS, it will be an easy decision to take the home favorite at a TD or less.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games off 2 straight losses against division rivals.SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
The Seahawks are 17-1 ATS and 18-0 SU as a favorite on turf after a game in which they had at least 290 passing yards of passing yards with 17 of the 18 games seeing victories by a TD or more.
Play on the Seahawks to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-05-17||Rams v. Giants +4||51-17||Loss||-115||74 h 41 m||Show|
Meet the NFL flavor of the year. LA Rams - asking price is laying 3.5 points on the road. Despite of all the giddiness surround the Rams I'm not buying into what the pundits/linesmakers are offering at this time, and feel like the price is a little steep. I know the Rams are off a bye and previous to that pitched a 33-0 shutout against Arizona, but it must be noted that a team coming off a shut out of an opponent and than are coming off a bye have failed cover 8 of the L/10 times. Meanwhile, the Gmen are also off a bye and in the past have been extremely capable playing with rest winning 6 of 7 times straight up. I know the Giants may not inspire a lot of bettors and could be in the midst of down season, but they are still in league with strong parity. Remember the old saying folks" Any given Sunday ".
Note: Giants -QB Elie Manning is 5-0 SU/ATS in his career vs NFL West oppostion and the Giants are 7-0 SU L/7 in this series.
LA RAMS is 0-7 ATS L/7 vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.
The Giants are 16-0 ATS covering by an average of 7.41 ppg as a dog after a game in which they benefitted from at least 95 penalty yards. The SU record was 11-6 but none of the losses came by more than 3 points.
NFL Road favorites like the Rams - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half are 18-45 ATS for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 34 seasons.LA RAMS is 2-11 ATS L/13 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.
NFL team like the NY Giants - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games are 45-17 ATS L/34 seasons for a long term 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the NY Giants to cover
|11-05-17||Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 43.5||17-20||Win||100||69 h 46 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers D, is currently looking like a top tier unit, on 3 different occasions they have held their opponent to FG in wins, and they have not allowed a offensive Touchdown in their L/8 quarters of football allowing an average of 17.7 ppg on the season. Meanwhile, the offense is sputtering and have averaged just 18.5 ppg on the season, . On the flipside their opponents the Atlanta Falcons do not look as prolific offensively as they did last season, and are averaging just 21.9 ppg. On the brighter side their D, is playing better than last season, and allowing 4 ppg less then the previous campaign and only once have allowed more than 23 points in a game this season.
These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings.
NFL NFC South Division teams have gone under in 15 of their L/16 when the home team is favored by 8 points or less and the Total is less than 56.
ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the board. CAROLINA is 24-7 UNDER L/31 off a road win against a division rival with a combined average of 36.9 ppg going on the board.
NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points like Atlanta - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 37-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||10-30||Loss||-115||68 h 26 m||Show|
The TB Bucs may not inspire bettors , but they are an interesting and under rated under performing group that can move the ball in explosive fashion when in a groove behind QB James Winston and rank second in the NFL in passing yards per game (295.4) to New England (302.1).They averaged 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Bills but then were held out of the end zone in a 17-3 home loss to Carolina last week, the first time they failed to score a touchdown since James Winston's arrival in 2015. However with that said I'm betting this TB group that is 5-2 in the stats battles this season will bounce back in a big way this Sunday in the Bayou vs what I'm starting to feel maybe a over rated Saints side.
TB is 9-3 ATS L/12 as away dog of 7 points or more.
TAMPA BAY is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with games average point margin clicking in at around a FG.
NFL Underdogs or pick like TB - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 96-53 ATS last 34 seasons for a long term automatic 64% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the TB Bucs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-05-17||Broncos +8 v. Eagles||23-51||Loss||-115||51 h 25 m||Show|
Denver has really disappointed a lot of people this season, but when your using a young QB like Trevor Siemian that is still trying to learn a system problems are going to rear their ugly head and they have. That's why the Broncos have said, that they will go with Osweiler a QB that has won 13 of his 21 NFL starts in this Sundays tilt vs the Eagles. I know the Eagles have looked like juggernauts, and are 7-1 on the season. But today their going to face a desperate team, with bad intentions and I'm betting if the Eagles can pull of the victory it won't come easily.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
NFL Road teams like Denver - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, with a losing record on the season are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors thanks to bloated over done lines.
Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Central Florida v. SMU +14.5||31-24||Win||100||82 h 53 m||Show|
The SMU Mustangs have come a long way and are really forming into a very capable football program with an explosive offense, that can be a menace for most teams in this nation including the red hot undefeated UCF Knights who are ranked 15th in the country . With that said, and despite of their record, I myself still have some doubts about, UCF despite of some decent wins against some pretty good teams, even though these said teams are still not of the top tier variety . Now here as 14 plus point road favs the Knights maybe getting just a bit to much love from the lines-makers considering how explosive their opponents the Mustangs can be offensively, making the home dog a viable SU or back door opportunist here in a home game that will see them and their fans sky high with enthusiasm. This place will be rocking and a upset is not out of the question and a cover a higher probability than many might think possible.
UCF is 2-10 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point conference favs.
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the SMU Mustangs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Colorado State -2.5 v. Wyoming||13-16||Loss||-115||121 h 19 m||Show|
Make no mistake despite of losing last week to Air Force , Colorado State are still the most explosive team in the Mountain West Conference this season, and I'm betting we see them at their very best this week in rebound mode. They have won 3 of their L/4 on the road, and actually did not look completely out of place vs Alabama in their lone road loss ( 23-41) Meanwhile, Wyoming off a huge revenger last week where they exerted a great deal of energy in a merciless DD win vs New Mexico, by a 42-3 count, could easily find themselves drained and susceptible to being beaten up on themselves this week. I mean these kids play like their hair was on fire and won't be surprised if their spent.
COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games over the last 2 seasons.
Road favorites like Colorado State - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are a long term good bet going 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Colorado State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV||23-31||Loss||-110||120 h 3 m||Show|
UNLV is off a huge upset win vs Fresno State last week, winning by a 26-16 count, as 21.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs looked completely drained after pulling off an upset of their own vs San Diego State the previous week, and Rebels took advantage of the situation. Now in another emotional letdown scenario I'm betting its UNLV's turn to suffer . Look for a Hawaii team that despite of struggling on offense and losing to pretty good San Diego State program ,actually did not look as bad as I thought they would, and will now be well prepared to make a game of this after a facing last weeks very physical defensive opponent. What I' saying is look for the Warriors very capable offense to tee off in a big way here , vs a D, that allowed Utah State to pound them for 52 points the week before last.
UNLV is 2-13 ATS L/15 off a road win against a conference rival .
CFB road team Hawaii - with an excellent offense - averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game are 23-3 ATS L/25 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
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|11-04-17||Ole Miss +3.5 v. Kentucky||37-34||Win||100||78 h 7 m||Show|
Ole Miss might not get a lot of respect from bettors this week, as they have now lost 5 of their L/6 overall, including a 38-37 loss to Arkansas last time out, but according to my power rankings and cross reference matchup stats, the Rebs actually matchup well against this type of opponent. Meanwhile, Kentucky is off an emotional win vs long time nemesis Tennessee last week, and could easily be in a letdown state coming into this tilt vs a hungry opponent. It must also be noted that despite of their 6 wins the Wildcats have been out yarded by 106 ypg in their L/3 games and are a very over rated team at the moment.
KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games losing SU by just under 20 ppg. OLE MISS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. In KENTUCKY's L/24 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play they have been outscored by a 43 to 22.8 average score. HC Stoops of Kentucky is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse .
CFB Home favorites like Kentucky - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 11-33 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Iowa State +2.5 v. West Virginia||16-20||Loss||-105||117 h 43 m||Show|
Iowa State is the real deal, behind one of the better defenses in the Big 12 as they proved last week in a win vs ranked TCU by a 14-7 count as 7 point home dogs. They also proved a lot to me in that tilt, and I'm betting they still have enough fuel in the tank to slow West Virginia down this week. Meanwhile, W.Virginia despite a explosive offense are a team that lacks a solid defense, and has allowed 34, 31, 35, 36, and 50 points in their L/5 games and according to my own projections Iowa State will have a similar plus offensive out put here, which gives them a great chance for a SU upset considering how staunch their D has been.
IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att dating back to last season.IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS L/15 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .W VIRGINIA is 2-12 ATS L/14 after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.
CFB team like West Virginia - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons or a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.
CFB road team like Iowa State - after going under the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 51-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Iowa State Cyclones to cover
|11-04-17||Charlotte +10 v. Old Dominion||0-6||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
Old Dominions defense is atrocious having allowed 53,38,58,35,35, 35 points respectively which makes them weak DD favorites. I know Charlotte may not inspire bettors, but CFB home team vs. the money line Old Dominion - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 13-40 SU, for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.( lost a heart breaker N.Texas by a 45-38 count and are now in a letdown scenario)
OLD DOMINION is 4-14 ATS L/18 after allowing 37 points or more last game .
|11-04-17||Penn State v. Michigan State +9||24-27||Win||100||72 h 58 m||Show|
Penn States undefeated season came crashing down last week in the worst possible way, as they fell apart late and lost to Ohio State 39-38. I know a lot of pundits expect them now to come out very upset and ready to fire on all cylinders, but its never easy to get up off the proverbial matt after being body slammed and having the wind taking out you. Now in an emotional letdown scenario I expect a strong Michigan State defense to make life hard on the Lions in this spot. It must also be noted that the Spartans will also be in a big time revenge mode for being destroyed by Penn State last season by a 45-12 count. (Mich State is 9-1 SU L/10 and 11-1 ATS L/12 in Big 10 revenge tilts)
PENN ST is 2-12 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game .PENN ST is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses and is 0-6 ATS L/6 off a road loss.MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games in the second half of the season during the last few seasons.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Penn State - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 12-38 ATS on the rebound for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors dating back 25 seasons.
Play on the Michigan State Spartans to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Kansas State +4 v. Texas Tech||42-35||Win||100||121 h 51 m||Show|
Texas Tech enters this game against a very competitive Kansas St football program having lost 4 of their L/5 and 3 straight games by double digit deficits , and in my opinion from the out set of this season have been over rated by the prognosticators. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder's well coached group must be respected, and after resting a lot of starters last week in a win vs instate Rivals Kansas, will now be primed to play a top tier brand of physical football. Take the points.
KC HC Snyder is 31-19 ATS L/50 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game.
CFB road team like KState - after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 92-42 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||UMass +32 v. Mississippi State||23-34||Win||100||41 h 17 m||Show|
Mississippi State is off one of their biggest wins of the campaign last week on the road, against Texas A&M and will now be in a letdown situation and in a double jeopardy look ahead scenario as they prepare to play Alabama next week. The goal of Miss State , is to stay healthy for their big game, and I'm betting they play down to their competition this week, while subbing in a lot of backups. Also UMass has suddenly come to life, winning two straight while compiling 1619 yards of offense in their L/3 games overall while averaging 38.3 ppg, and are a viable cover group in this spot considering the circumstances. I'm betting on Umass moving to 7-0 ATS L/7 vs SEC sides.
Play on UMass to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -13 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
Indiana coach Tom Allen knows know exactly what's coming his way this Saturday when his Indiana Hoosiers go against the fourth-ranked Wisconsin . QUOTE:
That's exactly the recipe for success Wisconsin will use once again this week vs Indiana.
I know Illinois look disinterested last week in a sleepy win vs Illinois, but now after that short snooze and the season winding down and the possibility of play off spot ,you can bet they will be awake and ready to make a statement vs a Indiana side that not built to withstand the physical pounding they are going to take today behind a D, that has allowed only 12.9 ppg game.
Wisconsin has owned this Indiana football program in the recent past winning 7 straight times by an average score of 58-14 and I am betting on a repeat performance is on today's agenda.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS L/6 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 winning by an average of 18.2 ppg.
CFB Road favorites Wisconsin - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 51-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Wisconsin to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-03-17||Marshall +8 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||59 h 31 m||Show|
Marshall after a nice run that saw them winning 5 straight games behind a nasty D that allowed a total of 37 points ( 7.4 ppg) , looked asleep at the proverbial wheel last week at home in a loss to Florida International. Now wide awake after that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to respond in a big way vs Lane Kiffins high flying Florida Atlantic football program a side in a letdown situation after taking a big win against Western Kentucky last week by scoring 22 points in the 4th quarter for a 42-28 win.
Marshall is 4-0 SU L/4 meetings in this series, and I'm betting they cover and possibly pull off a su upset here.
MARSHALL is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return .FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs. FLA ATLANTIC is 9-22 ATS L/31 as a home favorite and 1-12 ATS L/13.
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 47-17 ATS L/25 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Marshall to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-02-17||Bills v. Jets UNDER 43||21-34||Loss||-118||8 h 45 m||Show|
Buffalo has played an extreme brand of disciplined/conservative ball on the road this season and have scored an average of just 14 ppg on offense, while allowing just 15.3 ppg. They have given up some yard but have proven resilient and bend but don't break mind set. Meanwhile, the Jets have scored just 20 ppg on average and given up just 18.7 ppg. My own projections estimate both team to put between 14-20 points on the board , which gives credence to an under bet based on my estimates.
note: BUFFALO in their L/50 in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of 35.9 ppg get scored. NY JETS are in their L/103 games when they allow 15 to 21 points have seen average of 36.8 ppg go on the board.
The Bills have gone UNDER 14 straight times when the line is within four of pick and on turf vs a team that had fewer regular season wins the previous season, as long as they are not hosting the Dolphins the total highest combined score clicked in at 39 points with the average combined score coming in at 28.3 ppg.
NFL team against the total like the Jets - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 32-8 UNDER the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for under bettors.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 15 m||Show|
Tonight Navy enters this game against Temple in a nasty mood after two straight hard fought losses derailed their undefeated season. Add to that revenge for a loss to Temple last year in the ACC title game and you have a Navy side that will be dangerous and merciless. It must be noted that this is not the same smash mouth Temple football program of the last few seasons, under new HC Cosby and despite of being feisty and well rested off a bye I'm betting they won't have big enough gonads to stop their fire breathing opponent in this spot.
Temple when off a bye is 1-9 ATS L/10 SU/ATS vs a conference team looking for revenge. Navy is 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
CFB Road favorites like Navy - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference games are 66-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Temple - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are just 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|11-02-17||Northern Illinois +8.5 v. Toledo||17-27||Loss||-110||35 h 44 m||Show|
Northern Illinois and Toledo arguably the two best teams in the MAC will go head to head this Thursday night in the Glass Bowl. Toledo has been on a roll of late winning and covering three straight, but their biggest weakness remains their defense, which was evident when they allowed Tulsa and Miami Fl 52 and 51 points respectively and I'm betting the Huskies do some damage here this week via a balanced attack, while their own staunch D that allows just 18 ppg, will slow the Rockets explosive offense enough to keep them within striking distance of outright upset here this evening. It must also be noted that NIU is 27-3 SU and 25-5 ATS L/30 on the road in MAC battles and the series visitor has not failed to cover in the L/6 confrontations. It must also be noted NIU is 15-1 SU and 16-0 ATS on the road vs a side off a win like the Rockets are and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 away facing a team on a 3-0 SU/ATS run.
N ILLINOIS is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry.
CFB Home favorites like Toledo - in conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning are a long term bad bet going just 61-141 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Northern Illinois Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-30-17||Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5||19-29||Loss||-110||145 h 57 m||Show|
Denver enters this game off getting shut out last week, as their offense continues to look horrendous on a regular basis and has not score more than 17 points since their week 1 opener. One thing they have going for them is a solid D, ranked No.2 in the NFL and more than capable of slowing down the KC Chiefs this Monday night.DENVER is 13-4 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game , with the combined average score of 38.1 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, KC comes off a higher scoring Thursday night game losing a heartbreaker to Oakland 31-30 on a last minute play.. It must be noted however, that teams off a Thursday game than playing on a Monday have seen their games stay under the total 9 of the L/10 times dating back 6 seasons and the Chiefs have gone under 9 straight times after playing the Raiders, and are 1-5 under off a Thursday game. I',m expecting this to be a defensive snooze fest that remains on the low side of the number
DENVER is 6-0 UNDER L/6 off a road loss with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board.KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points with a combined average of 39.1 ppg getting scored.Reid is 10-1 UNDER L/10 after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the board.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-29-17||Steelers v. Lions +3||20-15||Loss||-110||124 h 50 m||Show|
The Detroit Lions are very well rested and coming off their bye week as they prepare to face the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field on Sunday night. The Lions really showed me something before their bye , never giving up and almost coming back from huge DD deficit against the Saints in New Orleans. They looked tanked in that game early on , like I expected them to be, but somehow they found the energy to make a game of it, in never say die fashion which was impressive to say the least. That tells me something about this team and I'm going to back them here tonight getting points. I know the Steelers are a fine team, but no team is infallible in the new NFL, as was the case when their stud veteran QB Roethlisberger’s threw five-interceptions in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, three weeks ago. Yes, I also know Matt Stafford the Lions QB , has not performed all that well of late, but with some rest I expect the gifted QB to be at his best in this spot and get us the cover even though he will only have one key downfield target in Marvin Jones as WR Golden Tate is dealing with a shoulder injury . Take the points.
Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
NFL Home teams like the Lions - off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 33-11 ATS L/10 L/10 years, for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lions - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-6 L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-29-17||Chargers +9 v. Patriots||13-21||Win||100||116 h 56 m||Show|
The New England Pats enter this game off a hugely emotional win vs the Atlanta falcons last week, and will be in a letdown situation this week, vs a Chargers team that I feel is starting to peak and show a lot of promise as was evident last week in a 21-0 victory over Denver, which was their third straight victory. The Chargers in their 7 games this season, have been very competitive and have lost only one game by more than 7 points and that was to KC. Today I expect they will once again stay within striking distance of the Pats and get us the cover.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game LA CHARGERS is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better and 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.
Road teams like the LA Chargers - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/game committed or less ) against a team with 1.25 TO/game forced or less, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 38-16 during the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Chargers to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2.5||14-34||Win||100||116 h 45 m||Show|
Last week the Oakland Raiders pulled off an miraculous upset vs the KC Chiefs with under a minute left on the clock and will now be in a huge emotional letdown situation. What was surprising was how badly the raiders had been playing previous to this as was evident by losing 4 straight games, and how average they looked all night before the big play got them a victory. I'm betting they fall back into a state of mediocrity here, vs a Buffalo side that has won 3 of their L/4 games, what has been a solid overall defense, that before last week had not allowed more than 20 points allowing an average of 14.8 ppg in 5 games. I'm betting on the Bills D once again to be the catalyst behind a win and cover in this spot.
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS L/8 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog .
Favorites like Buffalo - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-13 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-29-17||49ers v. Eagles OVER 47.5||10-33||Loss||-110||114 h 44 m||Show|
The 49ers enter this game ranked 30th in the league in scoring D, after last weeks debacle when they allowed 501 yards of offense and 40 points in a ugly home loss. SAN FRANCISCO is 16-4 OVER L/20 in road games after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 51.6 ppg going on the scoreboard and 11-2 OVER L/13 after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 52.6 ppg going on the board.
Meanwhile, Philly enters this tilt as one of the leagues most potent teams, averaging 28.4 ppg and 31.7 ppg at home, and are currently around -14 point favs here, which indicates a high scoring affair. It must be noted that non division conference chalk of -12 points or more have gone over 14 of the L/16 times. The Niners looked tired last week and now travelling from West to East their body clocks will see them even more tired, which I'm betting as the linesmakers do that they will get beat up on. However, I'm also betting that SF, will do just enough damage in response to the Eagles attack to push this game over the Total.
Philadelphia has gone over in 3 straight and SF have gone over in 4 of their L/5.
My own numbers suggest both teams will put 20 or more points on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 11-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points with a combined score with a combined average of 50.5 ppg going on the board. Projected score :Philadelphia 34 SF 21
NBA team against the total like the 49ers - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 39-13 OVER the L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for Totals bettors.
Play OVER 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||San Diego State -9 v. Hawaii||28-7||Win||100||86 h 38 m||Show|
San Diego State after staring 6-0 this season, have fell on hard times thanks to becoming easy to read as they just consistently pass the ball to RB Rashaad Penny. Now they go against a Hawaii side that owns the No#.128 ranked pass efficiency D in the nation , and I expect the Aztecs will finally open up the play book and start looking downfield for bigger gains and a much larger point production output. I also expect their own D, to stand tall here and give the one way passing game of the Hawaii Warriors some huge problems in what I'm betting will be a conclusive win.
San Diego State has owned Hawaii in the past going `18-3 ATS L/21 meetings and smashed them last season 55-0. I know the Warriors are off a bye week, but they are just 1-6 ATS with rest L/7 and are over matched by a superior team that needs a win badly and that's not a good omen for them getting any kind of revenge here tonight in paradise island.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a losing record with the average margin of victory ringing in at 28.1 ppg and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better winning by an average of 27.7 ppg. HAWAII is 1-12 ATS L/13 after playing 3 straight conference games.
Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||26-29||Win||100||107 h 28 m||Show|
Kentucky enters this game against downtrodden Tennessee off a demoralizing loss vs Mississippi St last week by a 45-7 count. These young men are not like pros and don't easily get up off the matt when slapped around in that type of fashion, and a hangover performance by the Wildcats will I'm betting be the theme here this Saturday. Meanwhile, on the flipside, I really don't think that Tennessee is as bad as the pundits think they are. Yes, they got beaten up on by Alabama last week and Georgia 3 weeks again in ugly fashion, but a lot of other teams who get respect were also stepped all over by these top tier SEC teams. Prior to the Alabama game Tennessee stood tall vs South Carolina losing a 15-9 heart breaker that they had chances to win, and must not be underestimated vs a slightly over rated Kentucky football program that the Volunteers have virtually owned over the years. This is actually a game that Tennessee can with SU, and I think the team as a whole knows it and needing a win badly , will play with fire this week in what I expect will be a cover.
In the last 20 games in this series, Tennessee has won 19 of 20 meetings SU with the lone loss coming by a 10-7 score back in 2011 at Kentucky.
TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS L/46 in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better like KU.KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS L/6 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.
Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.Wildcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kentucky.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - lower tier team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are actually good long term bets going 34-12 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tennessee to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||New Mexico -1.5 v. Wyoming||3-42||Loss||-110||106 h 21 m||Show|
This is a tilt, where my own power ranking systems suggest and outright win by the visitor (New Mexico) vs an over rated side ( WYOMING). ( Linesmakers agree with my assessments, as does early sharp money) The Lobos run heavy style of play very much matches up well against a Cowboys team struggling to score. Ball control and clock consumption, are the keys here for New Mexico who took a played a very good Colorado State football program close last week losing 27-24 covering as 10 point home dogs. Last season, Wyoming was clobbered by the Lobos (56-35), and despite of a revenge scenario being in play are just not built to be successfully against this type of team. I'll ring the bell here and expect the visitors to win and cover.
NEW MEXICO is 26-11 ATS L/37 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry .
CFB Home underdogs like Wyoming - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 11-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB road team like New Mexico- excellent rushing team ( 4.8 YPR or more) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 41-14 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New Mexico Lobos to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||105 h 20 m||Show|
I am finally a believer in Miss State , after last weeks non empathetic DD beat down at home of Kentucky. The Bulldogs only two losses have come to Auburn and Georgia who I consider as two of the top three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M is no where near the level of those teams according to my power rankings despite of recent wins/covers. Meanwhile, Miss State now in a upward trajectory and currently playing with a great deal of confidence and now forming into top gear look very capable of taking out a Texas A&M squad that has a history of not performing well off a bye week as HC Sumlins 2-9 ATS record with rest would indicate.
CFB road team like Miss State - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 23-2 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.
Mississippi State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Minnesota +8 v. Iowa||10-17||Win||100||83 h 15 m||Show|
These teams are dead even in the Big 10 with 1-3 records and 4-3 records overall. The difference maker is that PJ Flecks Gophers are the superior defensive side. That's not a good omen for a Iowa side with the 126 ranked red zone offense in the nation. It must also be noted that Minnesota has not failed to cover in their L/15 attempts as Big 10 road dogs of 4 points or more and that HC Fleck is 13-3-1 ATS in his L/15 roadies vs.500 or better opposition. With revenge on board for their only home defeat last season to the Hawkeyes, I'm betting their motivation and energy will also be a deciding factor vs a side that many not have to ability to challenge them effectively after losing a heart breaker in OT last week to Northwestern.
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after playing 2 straight conference games .
CFB favorites playing as hosts like Iowa off one loss- exact in OT are 3-15 ATS L/18 when facing a winning avenging opponent like Minnesota.
CFB Home favorites like Iowa - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season are 36-74 ATS for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.
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|10-28-17||Utah v. Oregon +3.5||20-41||Win||100||80 h 6 m||Show|
Oregon and Utah are both teams trying to come out of slumps . Both have lost 3 straight. Both are desperate for a win, and I'm betting we are in for a close one here, with the points In my betting opinion ending up being golden . Look for Ducks super star RB Royce Clayton and the Ducks home field crowd energy to lead them to cover and be the difference maker . It must be noted that in the past the Ducks when on a 0-3 SU/ATS run have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS vs a side off consecutive losses and repeat and rinse of this historical precedent is on Saturdays agenda. Also HC Whittingham of Utah is just 1-6 ATS L/7 off consecutive losses. Also for a league wide CFB historical data base: CFB home team vs. the money line like Oregon - off 2 consecutive road losses, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 26-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Oregon Ducks to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||NC State +7.5 v. Notre Dame||14-35||Loss||-105||104 h 35 m||Show|
Highly ranked Notre Dame is off a huge win vs USC last week and will now be in a letdown situation this week vs a well rested NC State football program off a bye week and on a 6 game win streak . I expect the Wolfpack will be sky high for this game, while the Irish will have a hard time rising to the same energy levels they exhibited last week, which gives credence to my recommendation that we take the points here in this spot.
Note: When these teams played last season the Wolfpack to a 10-3 decision at home as 2.5 point chalk.
From a historical program ATS standpoint: NC STATE is 31-14 ATS L/45 vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game.
NC STATE is 24-11 ATS L/35 in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.NOTRE DAME is 6-23 ATS L/29 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is 19-34 ATS L/53 after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
CFB Road underdogs like NC State - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 44-16 ATS L/50 dating back 10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on North Carolina State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Appalachian State -3 v. UMass||27-30||Loss||-115||103 h 43 m||Show|
UMass has been playing some decent ball of late, and been putting a boatload of points (50x2) on the board, as was the case in recent back to back games against Ohio and in their first win of the season last week vs a weaker than expected Georgia Southern program. Despite of that, I just don't believe that these young men are quite ready to take down, a Appalachian State football program that knows how to win , and I will be fading UMass in this spot as +3 point home dogs. Remember this is a Minutemen side that has lost to Coastal Carolina, struggling Old Dominion and inconsistent Hawaii this season. Also thanks to the Minutemen recent surprising offensive explosiveness will have the full attention of a Mountaineers side that has only two losses this season vs Georgia and Wake Forest by 1 point, which diminishes Umass chances at catching their opponent napping, and for a upset under dog win/cover.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game.
Mountaineers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games.Minutemen are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
CFB Underdogs of 3-3.5 to 10 points like Mass- after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Appalachian St to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Air Force +10.5 v. Colorado State||45-28||Win||100||100 h 34 m||Show|
Air Force for the most part has been a very competitive team with a explosive offense all season long, and must not be underestimated here in this spot vs a strong looking Colorado State football program . The Falcons took San Diego State and Navy down to the wire, teams that my own power rankings suggest are similar to Colorado States and are off conclusive back to back wins vs UNLV and Nevada. The Falcons did not even look out of place vs power 5 side Michigan losing 29-13 and staying close almost till the end. So as far as today is concerned I'm betting we have good value taking the points here with a team, that can run and gun with the best of teams, and capable of beating you SU or via the back door cover.
Air Force HC Calhoun is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better) Air Force 25.1 Opponent 29.3.
CFB Road underdogs like Air Force - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPR or more), after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 81-34 ATS the L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Air Force to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||San Jose State +13.5 v. BYU||20-41||Loss||-105||99 h 19 m||Show|
Both these sides could easily be college football poster boys for futility , with 1-7 records. But according to my own cross reference rankings, San Jose State has recently shown more of an upward trajectory than BYU , and more all overall improvement, giving a decent Fresno State program a run for their money covering in a 27-10 loss, and playing decently in Hawaii losing 37-26 as 17 point dogs. Today I'm betting this young group will once again stay close enough for a cover or pull off the SU upset vs a BYU side that should not be a -13.5 point favorite vs anyone in the FBS. Take the points.
SAN JOSE ST is 28-12 ATS L/40 when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).BYU is 2-10 ATS L/12 in home games versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing 230 or more rushing yards/game.BYU is 0-8 ATS L/8 in all lined games this season.BYU is 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games.
CFB Road underdogs like SJ State- poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 44-12 ATS dating back 25 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on San Jose State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||99 h 54 m||Show|
Last week Virginia fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and got crushed by Boston College ending an impressive 4 game winning run. Actually BC has been surprisingly offensively explosive, behind an already staunch D, so I'm not being to hard on Virginia. Actually I expect the Cavaliers will bounce back this week, and cover and possibly spring the upset vs a Panthers side they matchup very well against, especially from a coaching perspective behind Bronco Mendenhall who I have a great deal of respect for. Meanwhile, HC Narduzzi is 4-12 ATS L/16 in home games, has in my opinion mishandled a pretty good looking ( at least on paper) Panthers side. with that said, I'm fading Pittsburgh here at home as favorites.
Cavaliers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road gamesPanthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
CFB home team like Pittsburgh - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 21-54 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.
Play on Virginia to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-27-17||Tulsa +10 v. SMU||34-38||Win||100||110 h 53 m||Show|
Tulsa is one very inconsistent team. There is a load of offensive talent, a lack of concentration , and a coaching staff that seems to be at the mercy of a group of young men who can come out and rock a stadium with explosive play or put you to sleep with a less than motivated performance. A few examples of this were, on display in Toledo earlier this season in the Glass Bowl against one of the MACs best teams the Rockets, taking part in a 54-51 blockbuster , almost pulling off the upset, and than in Houston taking out a decent Cougars side by a 45-17 count as DD dogs. Note:( SMU loss to Houston 35-22 in their meeting with them.) Two other tilts saw the young men from Tulsa play New Mexico and Navy very tough, losing close hard fought affairs, and than unexpected down games like their 20-14 loss at UConn last week as 6 point favorites. Now today, I expect this under rated Tulsa side, to make a game of their confrontation with SMU this week. It must be noted that Tulsa is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/games like SMU, while the Mustangs are just 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 450 or more yards/game.
TULSA is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games in the second half of the season over the last few seasons.
Meanwhile, SMU is off hard fought 31-28 victory vs the Cincinnati bearcats last week, and now starting to show some chinks and their armour and maybe some fatigue as the season drags on, which is not a good omen against what can be a very high octane Canes side when their attention span is focused, as I'm betting it will be here. SMU is 2-12 ATS after a win by 3 or less points .
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Tulsa - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are a long term good bet going 70-36 ATS for a 66% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons.
Play on Tulsa to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-27-17||Florida State -3 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-120||62 h 20 m||Show|
Jimbo Fisher better get his Seminoles rolling , and knows he needs a win here if he plans on keeping his job. I know Boston College has looked good of late in surprisingly explosive wins vs Louisville and Virginia , but , Fisher's Seminoles have owned this series in the past winning 7-0 straight SU , with this being lowest asking price the lines-makers have laid on the board during that run. I like Boston College feistiness and their D, and have been outstanding for a long time, but their offensive explosions of late, I'm betting are an anomaly that will end tonight .
Florida State has won its only 2 road games this season vs Wake Forest and Duke, teams with similar defenses as BCs , and I'm betting on similar results here tonight. Both those wins came by a TD.
FSU is 5-0 ATS L/5 weekday games and BC is 0-5 ATS L/5 weekday games.
FLORIDA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games against conference opponents.FLORIDA ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games .
Play on Florida State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-26-17||Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens||0-40||Loss||-120||37 h 31 m||Show|
Let me start off by saying I was never a big fan of Jay Cutler, and was not impressed by the Fins off season signing of him. While you never like to see a player injured, I must say that this injury to Cutler is a blessing in disguise for Miami, as I believe they will do much better with Matt Moore under center. Last week Moore engineered a 17 point 4th quarter comeback, and navigated his team to a win vs the NY Jets. You know, Moore is no bum, when it comes to delivering cash to his bakers he's s stud QB as his 20-9 ATS overall record would indicate including a 10-4 ATS record in away tilts. Tonight the Dolphins go up against a less than reliable favorite with a ton of issues that continues to surrender yards and points in large chunks. This version of the Ravens thanks to injuries, QB Flacccos inconsistencies (or both) and just bad coaching, is not up to par with past incarnations of the franchise and should not be mistaken as such. This is not the Ray Lewis era, its far different and as of right now does not deserve our respect on this suspect line.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS L/9 off 1 or more straight overs.
Harbaugh is 12-22 ATS L/33 in October games, with the them and their opponents virtually tied in point production.
Ravens have lost 4 of their L/5 overall!
Dolphins QB Moore is 6-0 ATS against opposition with a .400 or better records off consecutive SU/ATS losses.
NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Baltimore - with a poor offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game are 16-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.
Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-26-17||Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7||27-30||Loss||-110||36 h 56 m||Show|
Eastern Michigan has played some great defensive ball all season long, and have remained competitive on a consistent basis despite of their current 5 game losing streak. Their games have been grueling and exhausting, but the one that might have broke the camels back was last weeks hard fought 20-17 loss to Western Michigan in OT. That was truly heart breaking and you could feel the energy just completely sucked out of this young group as they stood on the sidelines after the game. Now in a huge letdown situation they go up against a torrid D, that might even be better than theirs , and a balanced Northern Illinois Huskies offense, that is very much better their own. Lay the lumber with the Huskies.
N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS L/11 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game and 6-0 ATS L/6 after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and beginning to roll after a 48-17 beat-down of Bowling Green last week.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like E.Mich - after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 5-28 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-22-17||Falcons v. Patriots -3||7-23||Win||100||83 h 39 m||Show|
The New England Patriots looked like they had lost last years Super Bowl before they pulled off the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL and left the Atlanta Falcons and their fans in shock with a unlikely 34-28 victory. At one point in the 3rd quarter Atlanta was up 28-3 before the Pats woke up and decided to thrash their opponents. Now the word REVENGE is making the rounds , as Atlanta fans and their betting backers bet on this scenario playing out. However, with said, it must be noted in life that you don't always get what you want. You have to remember, that New England has won 5 championships, and are probably the best coached team in football with Belichick at the helm, and arguably the best money QB in the game Tom Brady. These guys are as big as life, and whether they show it or not are ego driven, and will not take kindly to the Falcons wanting to come here and show the world that they are the better team, and last years loss was an anomaly. Instead I expect the Pats will primed to hand out another spanking, this time taking no chances and playing a complete focused game, which is not a good omen for a Falcons side that has shown big gaps in concentration over the last few seasons, despite of their top tier talent levels.
Atlanta 's HC Quinn is 4-13 ATS L/17 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better.Belichick is 38-16 ATS L/54 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play winning on average by over a TD.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/17 after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games.
The Patriots are 15-0 ATS /SU covering by over 14.8 ppg on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game, including last season's super bowl vs the Atlanta Falcons.
Play on the New England Patriots to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-22-17||Bengals +5.5 v. Steelers||14-29||Loss||-110||74 h 59 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers are off a hard fought win vs the KC Chiefs last week, as they derailed the Chiefs undefeated season. Now in a letdown spot, vs the Cincinnati Bengals I'm betting they won't easily get by a well rested Bengals side off a bye week. It must be noted that the Bengals are 8-0 ATS L/8 after a bye week when facing a division foe with an above .500 record like the Steelers . Meanwhile, the Steelers are an ugly 1-5 ATS as chalk against a rested side with a below .500 record and 1-5 ATS as a home favorite after a victory as a dog and Big Ben Roethlisberger is also 1-5 ATS L/6 after a SU underdog win in his career. It must also be noted that in my most recent power ranking projections that I consider the Bengals to be the most under rated team in the NFL at the moment and other than their opening loss have been extremely competitive.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games.HC Tomlin of the Steelers is 2-10 ATS L/12 off 4 or more consecutive unders
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Steelers - in a game involving two average teams (plus/minus 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are just 18-45 ATS over the L/24 seasons.
Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears OVER 40.5||3-17||Loss||-110||72 h 51 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers well rested after playing and losing last Thursday enter this game having gone over in 4 straight games with the combined average of 57.2 ppg gong on the board. This Sunday after their sleepy looking effort last time out will come out with all guns blazing looking for redemption and drag the Bears into a wider open affair than the lines-makers expect as is evident by the total. This I'm betting helps us easily eclipse this Total.
|10-21-17||Fresno State +7.5 v. San Diego State||27-3||Win||100||75 h 27 m||Show|
A lot of pundits believe that San Diego State will easily bounce back from last weeks surprising loss to Boise State ( 31-14) as their perfect season crashed and burned. But , hold your horses, I'm betting getting out of here vs a fast improving Fresno State football program will not come easily. Former California HC Tedford has really got the Bulldogs rocking winning 4 of 6 games with the losses coming to highly rated Alabama and Washington. Considering Fresno State has a top tier history of doing well with conference revenge failing to cover only once in their L/11 tries, it won't be a hard decision to back them here on the road in a key game getting TD plus. ( Last year SDSt beat Fresno State 17-3).
SAN DIEGO ST is 11-24 ATS L/35 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season .FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS L/9 after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers .FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS L/16 in all lined games.
Play on Fresno State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Wyoming +14 v. Boise State||14-24||Win||100||76 h 52 m||Show|
Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense, and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.
WYOMING is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Wyoming to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Arizona v. California +3||45-44||Win||100||61 h 33 m||Show|
Both these football programs have been playing good ball of late, as Arizona is off back to back upsets of Colorado and defensively deficient UCLA, while California is off a 37-3 beat down of formerly undefeated Washington State. It's been California's D, that has them turned around this season, and Arizona's explosive offense that made them so dangerous. So in a game I have tabbed for D vs Offense, I'm betting on the D coming out on top and helping us get the cover. It must also be noted that California is 13-1 ATS L/14 in this series as dogs, and once again look like loveable pups in this spot at home in Berkeley.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs and 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Arizona's HC Rodriguez is 2-16 ATS L/18 after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is 1-8 L/9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
California opened as the favorite here before the line was pushed back the other way favoring Arizona. The guys who work the other side of the counters in Vegas have some sharp minds, and despite of some early smart money coming in on Arizona I'm siding with the boys who make a living helping build Vegas in this spot. The line ORIGINALLY OPENED this way most probably because of some interesting long term trends that show , a CFB home team vs. the money line like California - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in October games are 43-14 in the follow up for a 75% conversion rate for SU bettors and also that a home team vs. the money line like the Bears- off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9 are 46-14 for a 77% conversion rate for bettors dating back 25 seasons.
Play on the California Golden Bears to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Michigan +9.5 v. Penn State||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 53 m||Show|
Michigan enters this game ranked No.1 in the nation in defense, and are giving up just 14.7 ppg. Granted they have a horrendous time moving the ball downfield, but if they get can Karan Higdon, going downhill today I'm betting we have an extroidnary chance at covering . Last week he had 200 plus yards and looks like he is shifting into top gear just when Harbaugh and company will need it most. I know Penn State looks like the team to beat in the Big 10, but despite of Michigan inconsistencies this season, must be respected as HC Harbaugh is 7-1 in his career vs undefeated opposition with the only loss coming by 4 points. Penn State has a bye week , but being well rested may become a secondary concern, as the offense may find themselves rusty against a nasty D, that will be out to hand out some big time pain this week.
PENN ST is 2-14 ATS L/16 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game with a negative margin of 6.1 ppg. PENN ST is 6-25 ATS L/31 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play.
Penn State HC Franklin is just 9-19-1 ATS vs .750 or better foes like Michigan.
Penn State is 1-13 as a favorite when undefeated following a DD win vs a ,750 or better winning record like Michigan.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Mich - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 72-35 ATS L/25 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Michigan to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Wake Forest +7 v. Georgia Tech||24-38||Loss||-130||74 h 29 m||Show|
The Rambling Wreck are more one dimensional team then ever, and are not only a run team, but a run only team as they rank 128 th in the nation in pass efficiency. Their fairly easy to read for good Ds, which Wake owns. With Clemson on board next week, for GTech I'm betting their concentration will also be off, which is not a good omen against a very good Wake Forest team, that are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 road games. Also WAKE FOREST is 28-8 ATS L/36 vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. I'm betting on a well rested Wake Forest team off a bye to have the edge today vs a GTECH side off a emotional loss a Miami Fl, last week.
WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS L/10 as an underdog and 16-4 ATS L/20 in road games after a bye week.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like GTech - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS L/32 dating back 25 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors.
Play on Wake Forest to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||UAB v. Charlotte +7.5||24-25||Win||100||59 h 39 m||Show|
Charlotte is a lower tier team, no mistake about it, but UAB is as inconsistent as they come, and despite of back to back underdog wins, in no shape or form should be TD+ road favs here as they have failed in this role 12 of the L/17 times. UAB is 7-19 ATS L/26 in road games off a win against a conference rival. (They beat over rated Middle Tenn St last week 25-23)
It must also be noted that CFB teams off back to back upset victories are not a good bet when going against below .500 opposition going just 14-30 ATS L/44 times dating back 27 seasons. Also CFB home team vs. the money line like Charlotte- off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent are 27-6 for a over powering 82% conversion rate over the L/10 seasons. ( Charlotte lost last week to W.Kentucky 45-14)
In Charlottes lone home game against a viable FBS side they lost 14-3 to up trending Marshall) It was a good effort that can be replicated today against a side in a letdown/trap spot.
Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Oregon +7 v. UCLA||14-31||Loss||-130||56 h 55 m||Show|
Oregon has been getting beaten up on of late, losing two straight lopsided events , but I expect they will be in this game vs their hosts UCLA , as a more reliable QB Taylor Alle will be back under center after backup Braxton Burmeister proved he can't handle the role . Also the return of WR Royce Freeman will also aid the Ducks here in their ability to cover. Note: Taggart is 5-0 ATS L/5 after back to back ATS losses.
Jim Mora's UCLA is a defensive and TO deficient train wreck this season. Ranking 126th in TO margin while allowing 40 ppg on average . Considering Oregon has a recent history of gauging the Bruins D in the past averaging 48.3 ppg in this series, it will be an easy decision for me to take the Ducks in this spot.UCLA is 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
CFB road team like the Ducks - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-26 ATS over the L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.
Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Kentucky +11.5 v. Mississippi State||7-45||Loss||-110||71 h 33 m||Show|
Everyone seems to love Miss State here, and on paper maybe their right. But some other personal observations have come to light for me after watching more and more the Rebels QB Nick Fitzgerald of late. What I have noticed is that he's being allowed to let loose, in dangerous situations, as was the case last week when he threw to unnecessary interceptions in the red zone. This kid seems not to concerned with risk management, and does not measure up some passing situations well leaving his side vulnerable for pick 6s. This kid just does not get it, despite of being ultra talented. Instead I like Kentucky's mobile QB Stephen Johnson behind a explosive offense to be the better of the two today and to keep his Wildcats team in this game and get us the cover.
|10-21-17||Central Florida v. Navy +7.5||31-21||Loss||-110||55 h 57 m||Show|
This is a big time ACC battle , featuring Navy hosting undefeated UCF.
The Knights have bashed opponents with reckless abandon this season. Personally I feel their using up to much precious energy, and not pacing themselves, which will be a problem as this season progresses and here today, against a punishing team. With that said, I expect a very feisty Navy squad that leads the FBS in time of possession to pound away at UCF relentlessly today, with ground attack and keep themselves in a position to pull of the SU upset. Last week Navy;s Zach Abey usually sure handed turnover problems ended the Middies undefeated season vs Memphis ( 6 TOs) , but this week I'm betting things return to the norm, and he remains responsible.
NAVY is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.NAVY is 10-2 ATS L/12 when the total is greater than or equal to 63
Navy's is 17-4 SU and 3-1 ATS as dog in conference play since joining the AAC , and I'm betting they add to those positive numbers here today. Navy HC Niamatalolo is 6-2 SU off a loss and a perfect 8-0 ATS.
Play on Navy to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Arizona State +10 v. Utah||30-10||Win||100||54 h 6 m||Show|
Arizona St is off a big win vs Washington last time out, and have been competitive all season long, and have not lost by more than 10 points this season. I know The Sun Devils might be in a letdown mode, and that Utah has owned this series of late, but they are off two grueling physical losses in their L/2 games against Stanford and USC and should show those effects here today, and also be in a letdown state. With that said I'm taking the points here.
Utah HC Whittingham is 12-27 ATS L/39 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
CFB team like Arizona State - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent are 23-4 ATS L/27 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arizona State to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-21-17||Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +3||20-17||Push||0||68 h 57 m||Show|
E.Michigan has lost 4 straight games, but make no mistake about it, their a much better team than that and have been very competitive in those losses losing by an average of 4.25 ppg , losing by 7, 4.5.1 points respectively with 3 of those coming on the road. In the 7 point loss to Ohio at home , they had chances to win that game, against what is turning out to be one of the top teams in the MAC this season. Its the E.Michigan D, that been impressive, as was the case against an explosive SEC team in Kentucky on the road( 24-20 L). So slowing down a Western Michigans offense should not be a problem, as well as doing enough damage offensively to get us a cover. Remember this Broncos team is not a PJ Fleck coached side, and no longer deserves the respect they have over the last few seasons as was the case last week in a ugly 14-13 loss to Akron.
E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.E MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19 in all lined games and is 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
|10-21-17||Tulsa v. Connecticut +6||14-20||Win||100||68 h 59 m||Show|
Tulsa is off a huge surprise 45-17 win vs Houston last week, and will now be in a letdown scenario here this week vs a UConn team that is off a upset win vs Temple last week. The difference is that UConn had a good chance to win their previous game from the outset , while the Canes behind their 129th ranked D, were not. Now this extremely inconsistent Tulsa team is being asked to lay essentially a TD on the road, something I'm having a hard time swallowing. Especially considering how pathetic the Tulsa D has been this season.
TULSA is 8-21 ATS L/29 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS L/15 in home games off an upset win as an underdog.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like UConn - off 1 or more consecutive unders, with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game are 69-36 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UConn Huskies to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-20-17||Marshall -2.5 v. Middle Tennessee State||38-10||Win||100||51 h 17 m||Show|
Marshall is a team the pundits are not paying a lot of attention to this season , thanks to last seasons miserable results . However, this season, they are in big time upswing, behind a solid defense that is ranked No.2 in the nation, in red zone defense and allowed 3 of their L/4 opponents to a FG or less and the defense overall has held 4 sides to 20 points or less this season. Tonight against a Middle Tennessee State football program that has failed to cover 9 of their L/15 as home dogs, the Blue Raiders are fade material in my betting opinion
. note: the Raiders are off a upset loss last time out to UAB, 25-23 as 4 point chalk, , HC Stockstill is 2-9 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite and also 0-5 ATS /SU L/5 as a dog following a loss as a favorite.
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47||30-31||Loss||-110||36 h 28 m||Show|
Oakland's offense enters this home game against the KC Chiefs struggling to put points up on the board, and have put 10, 10, 17 and 16 points up on the score board in their L/4 tilts respectively for an average of 13.25 ppg. Everything from the offensive line to the WRs, and even franchise QB Carr is struggling and don't believe any immediate answers will come vs the Chiefs smash mouth D ,tonight in Oakland. What is also surprising for me at least is how well, overall the Raiders D, has played allowing an average of just 21 ppg, and have held 4 of their 6 opponents to 20 points or less this season. With that said, I can see the Raiders offense continuing to struggle against a D that is now ramped up after a tough battle with Pittsburgh last week, and for the Raiders D, to continue their upward momentum towards respectability which will lead to a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.
KCs HC Reid, is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game with a combined average of 39.9 ppg going on the board and is 15-4 UNDER L/19 in weeks 5 through 9 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg getting scored and is also 8-1 UNDER L/9 after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the score board.
Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games in Week 7.Under is 24-6 in Chiefs last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Raiders last 5 vs. AFC West.Under is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored. Raiders have gone under in 4 straight in back to back division games.
NFL Road teams against the total like KC- after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record are 24-2 UNDER for a 92% conversion rate for bettors during the L/5 seasons.
Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection
|10-19-17||Memphis v. Houston -2.5||42-38||Loss||-120||38 h 44 m||Show|
Houston enters this game off a surprising and embarrassing loss to Tulsa last time out as DD road favorites. They looked truly asleep at the wheel in that tilt after a big revenge win vs a up trending SMU side the week before by a 35-22 count. The good news for Cougars fans is that they will take on a Memphis team that has not won here in 11 years, and play this game on home turf where the Cougars have not lost since 2014. Houston also has revenge on board for a 48-44 loss in Memphis last season, even though they put 624 yards of offense up. Considering the Tigers are off a grueling and hard fought win vs Navy last week, 30-27, I'm betting they won't have as much left in the tank in this spot vs a Houston side that is superior defensive side with 73 yard per game better stopping margin than their visiting opponents.
MEMPHIS is 0-8 ATS L/8 off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less and 8-19 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Houston has won 18 of their L/23 revengers.
Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-16-17||Colts +7.5 v. Titans||22-36||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
The Titans behind a not 100% healthy QB Marcus Mariota are in my humble opinion at a disadvantage in this tilt vs disrespected Indianapolis Colts side, that maybe better than expected with QB Jacoby Brisset under center, especially with T.Y. Hilton waiting to grab passes and a trio of backs that can do damage. Remember, the 43-point loss the Titans experienced vs the Texans two weeks ago, as Mariota recorded a 56 QB rating while throwing two interceptions? Mariota and his offense looked out of sync. So completely blaming his back up Matt Cassel for the Titans 16-10 loss to Miami last week, maybe misplaced, as the Ttians offensive line looked weak in allowing 6 sacks. Indy in my opinion is not as bad as the public and pundits might think, and maybe we vastly over rated how good the Titans were going to be this season. After all actions speak louder than words, and thus far everything written and talked about by the media about the Titans has turned out to be wrong. It's still fairly early in the season, so I won't get to down on the Titans. As far as tonight goes, I'm expecting this to be closer than the lines-makers are expecting , and getting points to be a viable wagering investment opportunity backing a visiting Colts team that has been a curse on this Titans franchise winning 11 straight meetings.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS L/9 vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season .TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a team with a losing record .TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS L/27 against conference opponents .
NFL Favorites like Tennessee - off 2 consecutive road losses, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 8-28 ATS during the L/24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors.
NFL Home teams like Tennessee - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 17-50 ATS dating back 24 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors.
NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Tennessee - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 8-29 ATS dating back 10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.
Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 1 unit reg selection
|10-15-17||49ers +10 v. Redskins||24-26||Win||100||125 h 9 m||Show|
The NFL is an interesting league , with changes in a teams momentum from week to week , and there is also enough parity to justify taking a underdog like the 49ers that look futile at best in the eyes of the public.
Because of the Niners inconsistencies, there are some exaggerated weak lines attached to their tilts. This week, I have isolated such a line, and recommend we take the underdog getting DD points. The old saying of "Any given Sunday" should be given relevance here, and we should not rush to judgement about how bad a team San Francisco is as compared to the Redskins, who are far from a consistent side themselves. I know the Skins are off a bye week but from a recent historical stand point have not faired well with rest as is evident by a 2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games following a bye week.
49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Redskins are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6.Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
WASHINGTON is 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return or less and 22-45 ATS L/67 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS L/83 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
The Redskins are 0-17 ATS and 3-14 SU as a FG-plus favorite when they are off a road game and facing a team that has forced 4.5 or fewer punts per game.The Redskins are 0-10 ATS /SU at home after a loss in which they were up by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.
Play on the SF 49ers to cover 1 unit reg selection
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