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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-20-19||Eagles +3 v. Cowboys||10-37||Loss||-125||35 h 35 m||Show|
Things are not good in Dallas right now as Americas team has lost three straight games, but are still being made favs here at home vs a Eagles side that has won 2 of their L3 games overall. This game is important to both sides, and Im betting it will be a hard fought battle that makes getting points a solid investment opportunity. It must be noted that HC Garrett has covered just 5 of 19 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of DALLAS.The Dallas Cowboys, are also just 1-18-1 ATS as home favorites when coming off a SU and ATS loss.
The Cowboys when made home favorites have allowed road underdogs to cash at a 34-19-1 ATS clip during the L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate .
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October.Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover
|10-20-19||Rams v. Falcons +3||37-10||Loss||-110||72 h 8 m||Show|
Things are not going the Atlanta Falcons way so far this season, as was evident last week when they out yarded and out played Arizona and still found a way to lose a one point 34-33 road tilt. Now the Falcons are extremely desperate to get a win here at home this week vs a struggling Rams side on a 3 game losing streak and Im betting take advantage of downtrodden team that is reeling out of control. Note:Super Bowl loser like the Rams as a non-division road chalk are just (28-51-5 ATS) . The Falcons are 4-0/SU/ATS L/4 in this series and get the nod again to get us the cover.
ATLANTA is 21-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games.LA RAMS is 14-28 ATS L/42 in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a good offensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 39-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Atlanta to cover
|10-20-19||Dolphins +17.5 v. Bills||21-31||Win||100||72 h 54 m||Show|
Bills QB Josh Allen(Concussion protocol) has found ways to win despite throwing seven interceptions and losing several fumbles. He is truly a over rated QB at this point in his career. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are changing quarterbacks and last week, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick almost pulled off a miraculous comeback. Look for Fitzmagic to be the difference maker here today vs a solid but vulnerable D, that Its use will be over looking this current opponent.
BUFFALO is 14-28 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
The Bills have lost the last two times they've been favored by 15 1/2 or more points. Buffalo lost 24-17 to the New York Jets on Dec. 6, 1992, and 16-13 at Indianapolis the previous week.
NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 25-6 ATS L/36 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover
|10-20-19||49ers v. Redskins +10||9-0||Win||100||72 h 38 m||Show|
Lets not fool ourselves here , Washington is a horrendous team. However, travelling from west to east like the 49ers are here today and playing out of your time zone can also cause some havoc with a players body, and mind set and even preparedness. After being emotionally charged up for their last game , a win vs division rival the LA Rams Im expecting an emotional let down situation to concur with their east coast travel plans. With that said , Im betting on the 5-0 Niners to come out flat here and for the Skins to find a ugly way to cover.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-23 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less).
NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 5-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Washington Redskins to cover
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers OVER 46.5||24-42||Win||100||67 h 3 m||Show|
The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall. Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board.
Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.
This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7 and the average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg.
|10-20-19||Dolphins v. Bills OVER 41||21-31||Win||100||4 h 58 m||Show|
Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season!
BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER vs. terrible ball control teams, 28 or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored.
Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie.
Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times after a non conference home game.
NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-19-19||Tulane +4 v. Memphis||17-47||Loss||-104||61 h 53 m||Show|
Tulane beat up on Memphis, by a 40-24 count, last year as a 14-point home dog .Now Im betting they can turn the trick and more importantly cover here vs a Tigers team that had their undefeated season come to end last week and that will now be in an emotional let down state and very vulnerable.
Memphis has failed to cover 6 of their L/7 as home chalk of 9 points or less.MEMPHIS is 8-22 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MEMPHIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tulane to cover
|10-19-19||Army v. Georgia State +5.5||21-28||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
Army enters this game against Georgia State having lost two games in a row including their last game against Western Kentucky where they only scored eight points. This is an Army team I respect but there are obviously issues moving the ball right now. Meanwhile, Georgia State is an explosive offensive side, that always has a punchers chance against heavy weights because of their explosiveness.This is Georgia States 6th game but they have been favoured in only one of the tilts but still have four wins on the campaign and get my support getting points here as a under rated home dog.
Panthers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.Panthers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Play on Georgia State to cover
|10-19-19||Kentucky +25.5 v. Georgia||0-21||Win||100||72 h 8 m||Show|
Georgia lost an ugly OT game by a 20-17 count at home last time out to South Carolina and now getting to the College Football Playoff looks like a broken dream which will have the Dogs in a letdown situation here vs a under rated opponent. Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm,just didn't have it last time out, and in the process showed me he's not ready for prime time games just yet . Meanwhile, the Wildcats are tough blue collar team that is 5-2 ATS as dogs of 10 or more points, and despite of playing with a back up QB Lynn Bowden Jr. who is also their best WR the Cats won a 24-20 battle vs. Arkansas. Bowden who is a complete athlete rushed for 196 yards, and completed 7 of 11 passes, including a TD pass and must be respected here even against Georgia.
GEORGIA is 18-34 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a home win are 18-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs (KENTUCKY) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival are 34-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kentucky to cover
|10-19-19||Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma State||45-27||Win||100||80 h 30 m||Show|
Mark Rhules undefeated Baylor Bears come to Oklahoma State to take on the Pokes in a Saturday afternoon tilt. We all know how explosive the Cowboys offence is but the the defense they are going against is holding opponents to just 17ppg and only one opponent the Red Raiders put more than 21 points on the board. Meanwhile, Baylors QB Charlie Brewer is a extremely smart athlete that does not make a lot of mistakes and until his last game did not throw an interception. That kind of discipline and mind set really makes the Bears a hard team to beat, thus getting points here in my betting opinion golden.
Rhule is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry in all games.Rhule is 23-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached .
Rhule is 38-18 ATS in conference games in his career and , 21-7 ATS away, and 13-1 ATS on the road against opponents coming off a loss like Oklahoma State. ( The Cowboys lost to Texas Tech last time out a team Baylor beat)
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs (BAYLOR) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 44-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Baylor to cover
|10-19-19||Charlotte v. Western Kentucky -9||14-30||Win||100||48 h 21 m||Show|
Charlotte continues to get to much respect from the linesmakers as they enter this tilt off three straight losses with their only two wins this season coming against FCS school Gardner Webb and one FBS program that is in a shambles UMass. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky despite of losing their starting QB a few weeks ago continue to show upward momentum having won three 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 behind a very strong D, that is allowing just 18.5 ppg.
Bottom line here is that Western Kentucky according to my power rankings is set the superior side playing at home with revenge for a ugly 40-14 loss last season, now will be primed for payback.
CFB A home team (W KENTUCKY) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 23-2 SU L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.2 ppg.
Western Kentucky to cover
|10-19-19||Old Dominion v. UAB -16.5||14-38||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
Old Dominion enters this game in complete disarray and has dropped five straight games SU and have been out yarded by almost 100 ypg while UAB has won 5 of their L/6 and gaining momentum. UAB has held 3 of your last four opponents to season-low yards, and are currently on a 15 game home winning streak and more than capable of exploding here today and cashing as DD home chalk .
UAB is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21.3 ppg.
CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the UAB Blazers to cover
|10-18-19||Ohio State v. Northwestern UNDER 50||52-3||Loss||-100||13 h 21 m||Show|
Northwestern is a team that bases its strength on defense as their offence is anemic and atrocious and tonight against an explosive Ohio State offence Im betting they limit big plays and eat up clock in methodical fashion. As I just mentioned the Cats offense is one of the worst in the nation., Northwestern ranks No. 5 overall on defense and 124th on offense and rank last in the nation in yards-per-play, points-per-play, and explosive play percentage conversion rate.Tonight Northwestern's excruciatingly slow paced offense will be taking on a over powering Ohio State defense that’s only allowing 8.8 ypg via just 3.7 yards per play and which ranks second in the nation in defensive havoc.If the Wildcats a side that is averaging just 14.4 ppg (3rd worst int he country) get shutout tonight I wont be surprised . Also Im expecting the Buckeyes to not open their playbook to much this week with Wisconsin on deck for next week, and instead use their run game quite a bit today, something that they have used more often this season than in recent years ranking 15th in the country in run play percentage plays. You don't have to be a mathematician to see the writing on the wall that this game has value for under bettors.
OHIO ST is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 10-1 UNDER after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with the combined average of 40.8 ppg scored.
NORTHWESTERN L/22 games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average of 45 ppg scored.
|10-18-19||Pittsburgh -3 v. Syracuse||27-20||Win||100||81 h 14 m||Show|
Well rested Pittsburgh goes against a struggling Syracuse side this week . Pittsburgh has just one loss and contending for the ACC Coastal. Pitts key to success is their blue collar old school defense, which is ranked No. 2 in the nation with sacks (27) . Meanwhile, Syracuse is downtrodden and just cannot move the ball consistently especially on the ground and in their 3 losses have been held to an average of 1.16 yards a carry. and have been out yarded to a tune of (-116 YPG) vs FBS opposition.Tonight Im betting Pittsburgh D controls the line of scrimmage and their offence does more than enough damage against a porous Orange D, and subsequently takes care of business here on the road.
Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Panthers are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover
|10-18-19||Marshall +6 v. Florida Atlantic||36-31||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
I think alot of bettors feel FAU is the better team, and that the way the media has portrayed them here for this Friday night matchup and now the linesmakers are taking the lead by making the Owls favorites in a game that should be closer to a FG (-3). But according to my power ranking numbers Marshall is under rated and deserves my support getting points. It must be noted that FAU ranks 96th in the country in yard per play on offense and defense while Marshall is ranked 44th in YPP and 68th on defence. I also like Marshalls offensive line, better than Florida Atantic's group and they way they protect their run game, which makes for long grinding drives, which will take FAU out of their flow when they finally get the ball. To this point in the season Marshall has struggled with Red Zone efficiency thanks to some very unlucky circumstances , bad calls, and just about everything under the sun, but Im expecting that to change.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-9 ATS l/10 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
Lane Kiffin’s is just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in back-to-back tilts at FAU Stadium.
CFB Road underdogs (MARSHALL) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Marshall to cover
|10-17-19||UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 50.5||34-16||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
Stanford has held two of its last three opponents to season low yardage, as the defence continues to improve. Im betting on more of the same action here today vs a UCLA side that has huge problems moving the ball consistently. Today Im betting on a lot of clock time getting eaten away as Stanford a run first team will pound away on a Bruins team with a smaller Defensive front, and for a lower scoring game to ensue.
CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - off a upset win as a double digit underdog, in weeks 5 through are 37-11 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UCLA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5||30-6||Loss||-120||37 h 38 m||Show|
Kansas City is struggling after losing 2 straight games thanks in part to Patrick Mahomes’ limited mobility because of an ankle injury. Tonight against a bruising run orientated Denver team Im betting those struggles continue.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
KANSAS CITY is 2-14 L/16 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
The Broncos are 11-0 ATS/SU on natural surface vs a divisional opponent after a win by more than a TD as a home favorite in which they were up by more than a FG at the half.
NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Denver Broncos to cover
|10-16-19||South Alabama v. Troy OVER 56||13-37||Loss||-110||8 h 37 m||Show|
Troys defence especially their secondary is a mess, and Im betting on South Alabama quarterback Cephus Johnson clicking on some big plays against a susceptible Troy pass D and doing alot more damage here than the linesmakers expect. Also it must be noted that Troy is ranked last in the nation in opponent pass yards per attempt abd 91st in opponent third-down conversions and last in opponent explosive passing.Meanwhile,Troys offense has proven explosive this season ranking 49th in points per game, 52nd in explosiveness, and 54th in efficiency while averaging a 42.7 ppg at home and very fresh off a bye week. Needless to say Im betting on a tilt that exceeds this number based on my projections.
Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 home games.Over is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 games on turf. Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games following a ATS win.
|10-14-19||Lions v. Packers OVER 45.5||22-23||Loss||-101||11 h 59 m||Show|
Here we go as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. Im betting on Lions QB Mathew Stafford who has owned the Packers D in the recent past to have a big night here. Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns in nine consecutive battles in this series, and nothing will change tonight. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and in his usual way will return fire, despite of being without WR Davante Adams and will also use explosive RB Jones who leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns to rip apart of the D line as has been his MO . Jones has over powered his way into the end zone in six straight games at Lambeau Field.
These teams have gone over 6 of the L/7 meetings with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 49.1 ppg. Detroit in their L/5 MNF games have seen a combined average score of 54.2 ppg going on the scoreboard.
The Lions as a dog off a loss when they failed to score in the red zone at least 3 times, have gone over in the following game 7 straight times with at least 50 combined points scored. Im looking for the Lions to be very much more aggressive here tonight especially in the red zone, and to do a fair amount of offensive damage which will buoy this combined score over the number.
|10-13-19||Steelers v. Chargers -6.5||24-17||Loss||-109||83 h 11 m||Show|
The Steelers suffered a bitter 26-23 overtime loss to the Ravens last week and will now be in an emotional letdown spot here this week. Also With Mason Rudolph injured(knocked out cold last week in frightening fashion) and playing at less than 100% or not at all , the Steelers are now down to third string Quarterback Devlin Hodges and are very much fade material here in this spot play. I know the Chargers came out flat last week vs the Broncos, and lost a 20-14 sleeper but now wide awake after that metaphorical nap Im expecting the Chargers to wake up in a big way and to add more pain to the Steeler nation. I know theSteelers are known as a chalk killer, and have consistently cashed in the underdog role overthe last few seasons, but todays situation does not bode well for this trend to continue.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons and is 29-14 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite.
NFL team (LA CHARGERS) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 79-40 L/37 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the LA Chargers to cover
|10-13-19||Cowboys v. Jets +7.5||22-24||Win||100||79 h 53 m||Show|
Dallas has lost their last two games, and are looking less and less viable as contenders as this season progresses. Meanwhile, with the Jets QB Sam Darnold now expected to be back in the lineup the Jets look like viable home dogs in this spot. Im not saying the Jets will win, but getting 7 points at home with your starting QB back in the lineup will provide both a logistics edge as well an emotional one of the home dog.
Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Cowboys are 1-16 ATS as a favorite on turf when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that has a third down conversion percentage of less than 40%.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|10-13-19||Falcons -1 v. Cardinals||33-34||Loss||-125||81 h 34 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons are now in desperation mode, vs a team Im betting they can handle in the Arizona Cardinals. I know the Flacons have lost three straight and in their last game got blasted 53-32 at Houston, but this has been a motivating factor for the Falcons in the past as they are 9-0 ATS L/9 times in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.
Arizona got their first win of the season vs a banged up Bengals team last time out but are just 2-11- SU and 3-10- ATS in games when coming off a win, including 0-4-1 SUATS at home. The Cardinals are also 0-14 SU/ATS as a dog off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that is off two seven-plus point losses like the Falcons.
Today Im betting on QB Matt Ryan delivering what the Falcons need and thats a win and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover.
NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Road favorites (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team - averaging 255 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 36-12 ATS L/36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover
|10-13-19||Redskins v. Dolphins +3.5||17-16||Win||100||77 h 41 m||Show|
The Dolphins are a despicable team , and so is are their opponents the Washington Redskins. But the lesser of the two evils according to my projections resides with the Dolphins getting points at home. This is strictly about performance charts and the mathematics associated with betting pro football. No way in hell do the Redksins deserve to be 3 plus point chalk on the road , not even against the Fins and this game according to my estimates should be a pickem and thus in my betting opinion getting points here will be golden.
Note: The Dolphins are well rested and have had time to get ready for this tilt. Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Washington has historically been a bad bet as favorites- WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover
|10-13-19||Seahawks v. Browns +2||32-28||Loss||-105||76 h 27 m||Show|
The Seattle Seahawks enter this game vs the Cleveland Browns after beating the Los Angeles Rams 30-29 on Thursday Night Football in what was a hard fought emotional affair and now Im betting they will be hung over. Meanwhile, Cleveland is off being embarrassed 31-3 in a Monday night tilt, and will be primed to bounce back. I know Browns QB Baker Mayfield has struggled a bit of late, but today against a Seahawks 26th ranked pass D secondary that is allowing 270.6 passing yards per game, Im betting he comes to life and buoys his team to a cover.
Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The Seahawks are 0-12 SU/ATS as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win and their rushing yards increased over each of their last two games.
Home team is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover
|10-13-19||Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5||31-24||Win||100||69 h 47 m||Show|
Patrik Mahomes only has one TD in his last two games, and Andy Reids D, is play ing lazy ball. Now that its become obvious that Mahomes is not a football god just yet, and possibly experiencing a sophomore jinx, this chiefs D is going to have up their game. Meanwhile, Texas is off an explosive 52 output last week, and in a all out offensive battle vsTB in a win and now Im expecting a regression to the mean. This combination will Im betting make for a lower scoring game than public and pundits might expect.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 39.9 ppg. Reid is 18-4 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.
Reid is 21-7 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored.
The Chiefs are 3-15 UNDER as +5 or more non division home chalk.
HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored and have gone under 4 straight times after a win by 14 or more points.
HOUSTON has gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games.
|10-13-19||Panthers -1 v. Bucs||37-26||Win||100||89 h 22 m||Show|
. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, England
Tampa off two consecutive road games and now travelling across the pond look vulnerable in a place (England) that has not been kind to them going 0-2 SUATS while being outscored by 59-25 count , and Im betting they end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard here this week against the Carolina Panthers. Look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to improve to 5-0 SUATS as a NFL starter .
When these teams met back on Sept 12 TB upset Carolina at home and now revenge is on board for the Panthers . Note: Rivera is 13-4 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent as the coach of CAROLINA. also since that loss the Panthers have won 3 straight and have the confidence and momentum to get what they want.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover
|10-12-19||Washington v. Arizona +6.5||51-27||Loss||-110||55 h 7 m||Show|
With the previously injured QB Khalil Tate back with the Arizona Wildcats they now look explosive as was the case when they lit up Colorado for 400 yards, in an upset win. Meanwhile, Washington remains an enigma of a team as was the case last week against Stanford as they were outgunned and outgained 482-294, and scored just one TD in a loss. So one team Arizona has momentum and the other the Huskies are downtrodden and looking vulnerable, making getting points with a Wildcats side that has only failed to cash once in their L/6 times as PAC12 tilts.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 8-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arizona to cover
|10-12-19||Wyoming +4 v. San Diego State||22-26||Push||0||111 h 11 m||Show|
Wyoming enters this contest pounding the ball down opposition D, piling up an average of just under 250 yards per contest via the rush. Meanwhile, San Diego States offence has been less than consistent, recording just 20.6 points per game and Im betting they struggle to score in this tilt vs a stout Wyoming D.
Wyoming Cowboys have picked up wins in three of the last four contests in San Diego. San Diego State has not played all that well at home of late losing 3 of their L/4 SU at home and Im betting the Boyz getting us the cover here in this spot.
Aztecs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-11 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game .SAN DIEGO ST is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.WYOMING is 12-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more.
Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in October.
Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WYOMING) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 32-9 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Wyoming Cowboys to cover
|10-12-19||Penn State v. Iowa +3.5||17-12||Loss||-115||130 h 28 m||Show|
It never easy playing the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium as was evident when Michigan in 2017 and Ohio State in 2018 visited and were subsequently upset. It must be noted that Penn State barely survived its last trip to Iowa City in 2017. It took a Trace McSorley to Juwan Johnson touchdown pass on the final play of the game to squeak out a 21-19 victory. Im betting on another close game here and for the Hawkeyes to get us the cover.
Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Hawkeyes are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Play on Iowa to cover
|10-12-19||Cincinnati -7 v. Houston||38-23||Win||100||91 h 26 m||Show|
Cincinnati is getting alot of respect here as they are being favored on the road vs the Houston Cougars and rightly so.
Defensively, the Cougars are still a work in progress after a horrendous stat line last season, and offensively they now have to work with a new QB as starter D'Eriq King is out for season ( Redshirt ). Against this type of over powering Bearcats D, this will be a huge problem for them today. Im betting on Cincinnati putting a load of points on the board vs a swiss cheese defence, while the Cougars struggle to score against the Bearcats top tier stop units.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are 9-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 7-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover
|10-12-19||Washington State +1 v. Arizona State||34-38||Loss||-110||80 h 49 m||Show|
Washington State enters this game off two straight losses, but don't be fooled by their current status, as this well coached team behind their air raid offence can do a lot of damage when its wide awake and primed to perform. I know that Arizona State is now ranked (18th) in the nation, with a 4-1 record, but Im betting their over rated. It must also be noted Herm Edwards is just 5-12 ATS as a favourite while Mike Leach is 7-2 ATS on the road off two losses and a perfect 4-0 ATS off two losses period and more than capable of bouncing back.
WASHINGTON ST is 13-3 ATS in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season.Leach is 22-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.
CFB road team (WASHINGTON ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 63-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington State to cover
|10-12-19||Michigan State +11 v. Wisconsin||0-38||Loss||-112||79 h 21 m||Show|
Im betting on a hard nosed defensive battle here today as Michigan State’s No. 6 overall ranked defense goes against undefeated Wisconsin’s No. 1 overall ranked defense in a game that Im betting will be closely contested and brutal. It must be noted that when the linesmakers expect a low scoring away game when Mich state plays - Dantonio is 9-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.
MSU is 9-2 ATS as Big Ten dogs versus an undefeated opposition, and 8-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 13 points or less.
WISCONSIN is 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
CFB team (WISCONSIN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 14-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Michigan State to cover
|10-12-19||BYU v. South Florida +6.5||23-27||Win||100||79 h 48 m||Show|
Charlie Strong and USF really need this game here and Im betting they come up with a big effort vs a banged up BYU side, with their starting QB Zach Wilson on the sidelines with a thumb injury and their top RB Tyson Wiliqms gone for the season with a ACL . Even without these top tier guys on offence the Mormons have really struggled to move the ball consistently as they are the 3rd worst team in the nation in Time Of Possession this season. Combination of Charlie Strong desperation and the Cougars diminished key roster positions, make the home dogs a viable wagering opportunity here.
Note: BYU is off a bye week but in the past that has not been a favourable situation for their betting backers as they are 2-11 ATS L/13 with rest.
Play on South Florida to cover
|10-12-19||Georgia Tech v. Duke UNDER 48||23-41||Loss||-110||1 h 8 m||Show|
Duke (16th) has the second best defensive efficiency in the ACC, , behind Clemson (2nd). Today against a struggling GTEch offence averaging just 15.2 ppg and 8 points per game on the road, should once again have a stellar day. Im betting on Duke establishing the run early and to pound away all day in clock burning fashion, in a tilt I hav pegged to stay on the low side of the total.
My projections power rankings suggest Duke will hold GTech to less than 4.5 ypp. GEORGIA TECH is 20-3 UNDER when they gain 4 to 4.5 total yards per play with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.
|10-12-19||Rutgers v. Indiana -27.5||0-35||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are hands down the worst team in the Big 10, a team that have scored just 23 points in its last four games combined. Meanwhile, Indiana did not look out of place vs Ohio State and looked good vs Michigan States top tier D, and has blown out UConn and Eastern Illinois and played well against a under rated Ball State side, winning by a a 34-24 and according to my projections are strong smash down chalk in this spot vs a team they very much match up well against. Indiana (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has lost four straight conference games, and now needs three more wins to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and will be fully focused here to get the victory and make it convincing.
Note:Rutgers has lost 10 straight true road games, since Oct. 14, 2017. This season has been equally unkind with two losses by the combined score of 82-0.
RUTGERS is 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under -32 ppg.
Play on the Indiana Hoosiers to cover
|10-12-19||Miami-OH +13 v. Western Michigan||16-38||Loss||-110||3 h 32 m||Show|
Western Michigan is an experienced side, but their undisciplined penalty taking is a red flag for me. Their one of the worst team in the nation in penalties, and shooting themselves in the proverbial foot is not out of the question. Note:MIAMI OHIO is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.
Meanwhile, Miami O has is a well coached team that has been very competitive in MAC action of late cashing 8 of their L/9 opportunities vs conference opposition. and off a upset win vs the Buffalo Bulls two weeks ago. Now well rested of their bye week,Im betting on them hanging tough here again vs an explosive side.Note: Martin is 6-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO .
Lester is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of W MICHIGAN.
Miami O to cover
|10-11-19||Virginia v. Miami-FL -1||9-17||Win||100||82 h 20 m||Show|
No. 20 Virginia prepare to go Helmut to helmut in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens as the Cavaliers visit the Miami Hurricanes in Friday night ACC action. Last week the Canes came out flat against VTech and were down 28 -0 at the half, before mounting a furious comeback, but still lost 42-35. I know the recency bias of that loss and the inconsistencies of the Canes this season may not make this a popular pick, but from a matchup perspective my projections tell a different story. I know the Cavs are a well coached team, and they don;t make a lot of mistakes, but they have to this point in the season, been way over rated for my liking and after today I expect the pundits will have a less enthusiastic respect for them.
CFB Home favorites (MIAMI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games . are 23-3 ATS L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Miami Fl to cover
|10-11-19||Colorado State v. New Mexico +3.5||35-21||Loss||-109||74 h 24 m||Show|
[QB] 09/18/2019 - Collin Hill is out for season ( ACL )
New Mexico enters this tilt with a 2-3 record , while Colorado State is 1-5 with the win coming over a FCS opponent in Western Illinois that is 0-5 on the season. Both teams still have meetings with No. 14 Boise State still to come, so for each team, the path to six wins and bowl eligibility means this contest is extremely important and will be a hard fought event which makes getting points golden in my betting opinion.
COLORADO ST is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO ST is 2-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 season.
CFB team (NEW MEXICO) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 79-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on New Mexico to cover
|10-11-19||Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 44||9-17||Loss||-109||52 h 11 m||Show|
Miami was upset last week by Vtech by a 42-35 count, which showed off some of the Canes defensive inefficiencies and of course their ability to click on offense. It must be noted that this MIAMI football program in their L/18 tilts when off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more points have seen a combined average of 49.3 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Virginia continues to be efficient but not flashy and are capable of putting points on the board, as their 32.2 ppg offensive average would indicate. Note: MIAMI in their L/12 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons has seen a combined average of 47.5 ppg scored. This season Miami has also averaged 38.3 ppg off offence in 3 homes games, and Im betting they do some damage here again in a game I have pegged to go over the total based on my mathematical projections.
Virginia's HC Mendenhall is 30-15 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 58.7 ppg going on the board.
|10-10-19||UL-Monroe -3 v. Texas State||24-14||Win||100||77 h 40 m||Show|
ULMonroe is battle tested after taking on Iowa State, Memphis , and Florida State this season. They did not look out of place in those tilts, behind a high powered offence, and tonight against Texas State Im betting we see just how explosive they can be vs a good , but not quite ready for prime time Texas State D. Yes, Texas State has won two in a row and their last one coming against FCS Nicholls state 24-3 and the win previous to that was a ugly 37-34 win vs Georgia State. which was less than impressive Note: Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Warhawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Bobcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Play on UL Monroe to cover
|10-09-19||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -1||17-7||Loss||-110||51 h 25 m||Show|
Look for LA Lafayette to control time of possession and bleed the clock via a top tier rush attack and to subsequently shock an explosive App State team.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. LA LAFAYETTE is 17-3 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
CFB road team (APPALACHIAN ST) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 39-80 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.
UL Lafayette to cover
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||3-31||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
The undefeated Forty Niners take on the public darling Browns tonight on Monday night Football .Teams like SF that are undefeated NFL home teams in Monday night prime time affairs are , 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS in non-division games. Overall this Niners franchise has a long history of MNF success going 40-16 SU and 41-14-1 ATS . Meanwhile, the Browns enter with a 2-0 record in their first two away games for the first time in the L/25 years, and it came against strong opposition (Ravens and Rams) and they must be respected for those efforts . However, from a historical standpoint this is not a good situation for the Browns as they have been futile in back to back road affairs as they have never won back to back away games dating back 16 season which includes 38 back-to-back road tilts. Its actually never easy for any NFL team to win back to back road games, and with the Browns playing their 3rd prime time game of the season, Im betting some emotional fatigue could rare its ugly head tonight giving the home side and extra advantage.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival NFL .CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS L/20 after a win by 14 or more points.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS when playing on Monday night since 1992.
Road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 10-33 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the SF 49ers to cover
|10-06-19||Patriots v. Redskins +16||33-7||Loss||-110||99 h 53 m||Show|
New England had a hard fought win vs Buffalo last week by a 16-10 count as they failed to cover as TD road chalk. In that game, super star and future HOF QB Tom Brady’s 45.9 Passer Rating registered as his worst in 13 campaigns. Is the veteran starting to show his age or was this an anomaly? While I never want to count out one of the leagues all time great QBs ....it still must be noted that " Father Time is Undefeated" and King Toms inevitable departure from the game more imminent than many might realize. Meanwhile, Washington despite of their miserable efforts in back to back games, are not as bad as some of the pundits might think. Yes, the Skins have looked in-cohesive behind their current QBs Keenum and rookie Haskins but the Skins D has still shown some life and no team is ever as bad as they looked in their last game in this league . With that said, Im betting we have some value here with the ugly home dog from a mathematical perspective. Note: With veteran QB Colt McCoy now healthy and practicing after breaking his leg last season he could possibly be getting the start this week making the Skins are a very viable underdog. The former Texas Longhorns star appeared in three games last season, completing 34 of 54 passes for 372 yards with three touchdowns while also rushing for 63 yards on 10 carries.
Skins 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs against .600 or better opposition.
WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game .The Redskins are 12-1 ATS (L/13 as a dog vs a team like the Pats that is forcing more than 5.9 punts per game.
NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (NEW ENGLAND) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 5-23 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Washington Redskins to cover
|10-06-19||Vikings -4.5 v. Giants||28-10||Win||100||53 h 30 m||Show|
Despite of losing to the Bears last week 16-6 the Minnesota Vikings are still a top tier team that has held two of their opponents to season low yards. Now this week against a young QB Daniel Jones, Im betting the Vikings defence comes out and completely dominates the line of scrimmage. Hey I know the Giants QB Jones is media darling, but he still has lessons to be learned before he can ascend to his current premature god like status, and today Im betting those lessons will be brutal. Key today will be Minnesota running game that is averaging 155.3 yards rushing against a banged up Gmen rush D, that is currently ranked at 19th in the league.
Giants are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Giants are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.Giants are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Zimmer is 33-16 ATS as a favorite as the coach of MINNESOTA.
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is 17-2-1 ATS against non- division opponents when coming off a loss, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite.
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover
|10-06-19||Falcons v. Texans OVER 50||32-53||Win||100||29 h 55 m||Show|
Houston offensive line has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks so far this season, but hat wont be an issue today vs a Atlanta side that just cannot generate much of a pass rush. With said, Im expecting the sometimes explosive and talented Jamies Winston to have a big day today. Meanwhile, the Falcons stud QB Matt Ryan ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards as is evident by having thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season and should once again have a huge day vs a wobbly Texans secondary that has been torched on a regular basis this season .
Over is 17-4 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf.
Over is 15-5 in Texans last 20 games in October.
Road teams against the total (ATLANTA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 63-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the OVER
|10-06-19||Bills v. Titans OVER 38.5||14-7||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
All these early season low scoring games by two of the leagues top defences so far has this Totals number vulnerable for over bettors to cash. My own projections estimate a combined score in the low 40s, thus from a mathematical perspective based on those estimates Im recommending we take an over stance.
NFL TENNESSEE is 31-13 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game with a combined average of 42.7 ppg. TENNESSEE is 23-10 OVER in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 44.1 ppg scored and in their L/21 games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game have seen a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored.
NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-11 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-06-19||Ravens -3 v. Steelers||26-23||Push||0||4 h 39 m||Show|
Last week the Steelers implemented a wild cat offence, and had some success, thats not going to work against Baltimore. It also obvious to me now that without their veteran QB Roethlisberger at the helm of the offence, scoring is going to be difficult prospect for the Steelers going forward . On the flip side Im betting the ravens behind QB Lamar Jackson’s run heavy offence that has produced 200 yard plus efforts in 7 of 12 of his career starts awhile averaging 5.6 rpg carry will be the key to them getting the win and cover in this spot.
The Ravens are 13-4 ATS L/17 on the road.
Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of BALTIMORE.
NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (370 or more YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-4 L/10 seasons for 92% conversion rate.
NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 37-3 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Baltimore to cover
|10-05-19||Washington v. Stanford +16.5||13-23||Win||100||82 h 23 m||Show|
The Washington Huskies were sky-high after taking out the USC Trojans last time out in a game they had circled on their calendars for a while, and now Im betting they are in a letdown spot vs a Stanford side that is slowly getting better as the season progresses and that held an explosive Oregon team to a season low 320 yards of offence in late September. It must be noted that the sled dogs have lost five straight times as visitors in this series, and are bankroll depleting 0-11 ATS after playing USC, as well as 1-5 ATS as Pac-12 road favs.
Take the points with Stanford to cover
|10-05-19||Pittsburgh +4 v. Duke||33-30||Win||100||83 h 12 m||Show|
Pittsburgh upset a very good UCF team a couple of weeks ago, and were in a letdown spot last week, and barely got by Delaware by a 17-14 count. Now refreshed and ready to go, Pittsburgh behind a top tier D, that has limited 3 of their L/4 opponents under their season offensive average look like viable bets here as underdogs vs a team that they have beaten 3 straight times a visitors .
Duke is a very good team but the football program has not thrived in this role going 1-11 ATS as a home favorite under 7 points and they have failed to cover five in a row as ACC chalk off a SU underdog winner ( Duke took out VTech last week by DDs as road dogs)
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
CFB Road underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 100-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-22 ATS L/27 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Pittsburgh Panthers to cover
|10-05-19||Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State||10-34||Loss||-115||84 h 50 m||Show|
Last week Ohio State obliterated Nebraska on their own home field by a score of 48-7. It was an absolutely dominating performance. Now because of that tilt, and how powerful the Buckeyes have looked so far this season, we are getting a recency bias line to bet into with the visiting underdog Michigan State. I myself am of the opinion that this is one of the better Michigan State teams coach Dantonio has put on the field in a while and with a top 10 scoring defense and a No. 4 overall defense taking points here is a golden opportunity for positive cash flow into our bankrolls.
Note: The visitor has cashed 8 of the L/10 times these teams have played.
OHIO ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. OHIO ST is 0-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
HC Dantonio is 17-3-2 ATS away with conference revenge, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated sides like Ohio State.
CFB team (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 12-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home favorites (OHIO ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, undefeated on the season are 14-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Michigan State to cover
|10-05-19||Western Kentucky -3 v. Old Dominion||20-3||Win||100||81 h 31 m||Show|
Old Dominion has lost 3 straight since defeating FCS Norfolk State in their opener and things don't look to get much better, here this week vs a revenge minded Western Kentucky team that lost 37-34 at home last season. to the Monarchs ODU is just 2-8 ATS L/10 in Sun Belt tilts and is fade material . The key here to what Im betting will be a cover for the road team is the Toppers No. 19 ranked overall defense, that is limiting opposition offences to to just 3 yards per rush. Im betting on a shutdown performance for the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has won their L/2 visits here and get the nod again.
OLD DOMINION is 1-9 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference game.
CFB Home underdogs (OLD DOMINION) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 7-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover
|10-05-19||Northwestern +7.5 v. Nebraska||10-13||Win||100||76 h 43 m||Show|
Nebraska a proverbial middle weight got flattened last week by a heavy weight in Ohio State in embarrassing fashion, at home in front of their own illumjini and will now have a hard time getting up of the matt without being a little wobbly. I know the Huskers are now in desperation mode , but with bruised egos and mediocre talent they will have their hands full again this week vs the Cats. . Northwestern has covered 4 straight in this series on the road and previous to last weeks hard fought loss at Wisconsin were riding a 8-game Big Ten road win streak and must not be underestimated in the visitors role. Note: Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.
Northwestern is also a perfect 12-0 ATSL/12 as conference road dogs winning 9 of those game SU.
Northwestern to cover
|10-05-19||Ohio v. Buffalo +2.5||21-20||Win||100||127 h 19 m||Show|
Last week the Buffalo Bulls looked like they were in a hang over spot when they faced Miami O on the road. Previous to that loss they beat up on a pretty good Temple team. Meanwhile Miami came out on fire, after being humiliated the week before 76-5 by Ohio State and were also getting some good breaks and calls from the officials. Now with that game behind them the Bulls come home to take on the Ohio Bobcats, a team Im betting they matchup very well against.
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.Bulls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings and Ohio is 0-4 ATS L/4 visits to Buffalo.
BUFFALO is also 6-0 ATS in home games vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.OHIO U is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).
CFB road team vs. the money line (OHIO U) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a su bar performing team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 1-26 SU l/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Buffalo to cover
|10-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL -13||42-35||Loss||-114||127 h 19 m||Show|
Virginia Tech comes off a Friday night home game last week where they were dominated by the Duke Blue Devils and now this week Im betting they get their proverbial butts handed to them again. HC Fuentes Hokies just don't have a viable recruiting program any more and the talent levels are beginning to suffer, and that will become evident as this season progresses. Here on the road vs Miami look for the Canes top tier D that is holding opposing teams to just 16 PPG on defense and an efficient offence that is producing 31 PPG to dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage . The wild card here belongs to the Canes behind QB Jarren Williams (1,027 yards, 7 TD) who is fast improving game changer with a high potential outlook.
Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Hokies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
CFB Favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 44-1 SU L/27 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at 21+ ppg.
Miami Fl to cover
|10-05-19||Air Force v. Navy UNDER 44.5||25-34||Loss||-109||92 h 38 m||Show|
When Military academies go head to head its almost guaranteed your going to see a low scoring hard hitting battle. Run baby run, and lots of clock time getting eaten way. Is the mantra of the day.
When Military academies have played against each other of late the UNDER has been predominant sinnce the 2006 campaign cashing 34 of the 42 times for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-05-19||Ball State v. Northern Illinois -4||27-20||Loss||-105||19 h 23 m||Show|
The Bronze Stalk Trophy is up for grabs when these two MAC rivals go head to head here this Saturday. The Huskies are 17-3 L/20 in this series SU including 10 straight SU and get my support here again. I know NIU has suffered three straight road losses against P5 opponents, but now Im betting being home and facing a team more on their own level that they have an edge behind a top tier D.
BALL ST is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.N ILLINOIS is 30-15 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Play on Northern Illinois to cover
|10-05-19||Air Force v. Navy +3.5||25-34||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
Im betting on these two grounds attacks pounding away on each other today in a hard fought battle until the very end.
AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Calhoun is 11-21 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE.
Road favorites (AIR FORCE) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games are 8-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Navy to cover
|10-05-19||TCU +3.5 v. Iowa State||24-49||Loss||-110||66 h 56 m||Show|
The Frogs are 6-2 L/8 in this series SU and are 40-15 on the road since 2009. That’s the third-most road wins in the country. Note: TCU freshman quarterback Max Duggan is going home. He was Iowa’s Gatorade Player of the Year in 2018 and he will be motivated to shine here today. Yes, this will be a hard fought game, but the difference maker will be TCUS ferocious ground attack which will make taking points golden.
CFB home team (IOWA ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 4-30 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on TCU to cover
|10-05-19||Iowa +4 v. Michigan||3-10||Loss||-110||25 h 52 m||Show|
Im a big fan of Iowas HC Kirk Ferentz’. He has assembled a hard nosed blue collar D that is allowing just 8.5 PPG and must be respected vs a Michigan team that continues down trending.
Harbaugh versus undefeated opponents, is 0-8 ATS in the last eight games overall.
Michigan is just 4-10 ATS L/10 at home as 9 point or less favs.
CFB Road underdogs (IOWA) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-04-19||New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State||21-32||Loss||-125||11 h 53 m||Show|
San Jose State has not been favored in a few years stretching back 27 games, and despite of being an improved football program of late, they just don't deserve such a lofty chalk status. The Spartans average 71 plays per game and just 5.79 yards per play and after watching alot of their highlights just do not look like they have the guns to do a great deal of damage against a ugly New Mexico D. Yes, I know the San Jose State beat Arkansas but that was because of some huge offensive plays and not consistent vertical ball movement. Meanwhile, the Lobos can move the ball, but so far their red zone efficiency has been lacking, something I also bet will come to end here tonight against the Sparties.
NEW MEXICO is 45-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Play on New Mexico to cover
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks -1.5||29-30||Loss||-110||33 h 48 m||Show|
Im betting Pete Carrolls Seahawks who are off a easy dd win last week vs Arizona will be primed for a big time effort here vs a reeling St.Louis team that was pounded 55-40 last week by TB at home. It must be noted this is the Seahawks first time playing here at CenturyLink Field after losing their first game ever game in September in front of their home town fans so their is definitely a motivation factor here at work today.
Defending Super Bowl losers like the Rams against opposition like Seattle coming off a double-digit victory, are 2-15 SU when the defending finals group are off an ATS loss in their last game. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, is 12-1-1 ATS in his NFL career in tilts against opposition coming off a SU favorite loss including 9-0 ATS when they are chalk of 5 points or less in those games.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 7-0 ATS when playing on a Thursday as the coach of SEATTLE.
LA RAMS is 8-20 ATS L/28 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or kore yards/game. LA RAMS is 7-24 ATS L/31 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5||29-30||Loss||-108||13 h 37 m||Show|
After giving up 55 points last time out to Tampa Bay in a loss the Rams will be ready to slow things down and get back to playing hardcore defence. Meanwhile, Seattle almost always fields a tough D, as was the case when they allowed just 265 yards to New Orleans in their last home game which some how ended in a loss. Im betting they will be even more diligent and conservative here in their return home as they look to protect the ball from turnovers. This above projected combination of projected game plan scenarios, makes for a viable under wager.
Carroll is 11-3 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the score board.
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 51-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (SEATTLE) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 35-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-03-19||Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48||27-17||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
Temple's 19th ranked overall D showed how elite their defence can be last week when they stopped Georgia Tech cold in a 24-3 win and Im betting they slow East Carolinas improving but not quite ready for prime time attack here tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. Note: TEMPLE is 16-4 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 45 ppg scored.
All of East Carolinas 5 games have stayed on the low side of the total this season and in their 2 home games have allowed an average of 8 ppg.
CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (E CAROLINA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in conference games are 41-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers -3||3-27||Win||100||34 h 8 m||Show|
The Bengals enter this Monday night game looking very inconsistent this season which is not a good omen for them as they go against a Pittsburgh Steelers franchise that has dominated them. The Bengals have lost eight straight and 11 of 12 against their AFC North rival Steelers and are just 6-15 in prime-time games since 2011, including 2-5 on Monday night. Im betting more of the same misery awaits them is in this spot. I know the Steelers will be playing without their veteran QB Roethisberger but in my own betting opinion his back up Mason Rudolph is more than capable of getting the job done here tonight.
NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - excellent offensive team (5.8 or more YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|09-29-19||Cowboys v. Saints +3||10-12||Win||100||104 h 0 m||Show|
Teddy Bridgewater looks just fine replacing super star QB Drew Bree's in last weeks road win vs Seattle. The Saints QB is now 24-7 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 17-2 ATS in non-division tilts and Im betting he responds well here at home in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Note: . HC Sean Payton has seen his teams thrive against non-division opposition like the Cowboys coming off a double-digit win, going 21-5-1 ATS in his NFL career, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in games when coming off a SU underdog victory.
The Saints are 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS L/13 at home during the regular season against .800 or greater opponents.
NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - with an excellent offense - averaging 5.7 or more yards/play, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 9-31 ATS L/36 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.
Take the points with the New Orleans Saints to cover
|09-29-19||Seahawks -4.5 v. Cardinals||27-10||Win||100||81 h 31 m||Show|
Last week Seattle's QB Russell Wilson. threw for 406 yards and four touchdowns and the Seahawks out yarded Saints 515-265) and still lost in a ugly looking contest at home, a place Pete Carrolls troops usually flourish. Now in a focused bounce back situation Im betting the Seahawks come out and take care of business vs a over matched Arizona side that is depending way to much on a rookie QB Kyler Murray’(0-2-1) to get things done.
The lines makers believe the Seahawks are the superior side and I agree they have a very high probability of winning here and covering . Note: In the Cardinals last 39 home losses they are a astonishing 1-36-2 ATS.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7.
Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover
|09-29-19||Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50||55-40||Loss||-110||79 h 22 m||Show|
The Rams held the Saints to only nine points in their first home game this season and they were all over Drew Bree's and he finally got injured and left the game. This Rams pass rush is vicious and against a TB front 7 that allowed James Winston to be sacked 4 times last week, things won't get much better here and as a result of my prognosis Im betting the Bucanners point production will also take a hit. Note:The Buccaneers a have gone under 9 straight times off a home defeat that saw their QB sacked four or more times with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored with the highest output coming in at 45 points. I also expect the Rams to be methodical in their approach as they look to keep Jeff Goff healthy and protected from an improving TB pass rush that has 5 sacks last week vs the Giants and for RB Todd Gurley to participate more than he did in last weeks game vs the Browns where he was targeted just once. This combination Im betting will lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total.
NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 68-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.
|09-29-19||Redskins +3 v. Giants||3-24||Loss||-115||77 h 7 m||Show|
I know that if you watched the Redskins last Monday night, you might feel squeamish about pulling the trigger on them here. That was truly a horrendous effort in prime time as they were down 28-0 at the half before finally losing 31-15 . However, Im now betting this Skins team wants to make amends for being embarrassed in front the of the nation and will come out here with their proverbial hair on fire. Hey guys I know their is a love fest going on around NYG new QB Daniel Jones,but operating without star all purpose RB Saquon Barkley who is out for 6 to 8 weeks will hinder him going forward as will a Giants secondary that is getting torched on a regular basis. With that said Ill recommend you Plug your nose and take the points.
It must be noted that Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road after a SU and ATS home loss winning 7 of those game SU with the only loss coming in OT by a FG.
NY GIANTS are 1-11 ATS in home games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game which was the case agains the TB Bucs last week.NY GIANTS are 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Washington Redskins to cover
|09-28-19||UCLA v. Arizona -7||17-20||Loss||-114||86 h 54 m||Show|
Ive seen some crazy occurrences over the years, but witnessing the Bruins come from behind win against No. 19 Washington State last week was one of the all time gridiron freak shows that I can recollect . The Bruins came back from a 49-17 deficit by scoring 50 points in the second half to pull off a miraculous 67-63 victory despite of allowing 720 yards in offence. A 6-1 turnover ratio was the difference maker. It was the 3rd largest comeback win ever in NCAA history, and now Im betting on Chip Kelleys Bruins team being in a major let down situation and now going against a side that will be fired up with revenge on board for last seasons 31-30 loss to the Bruins . The Wildcats when playing off a by bye week against an opponent coming off a SUATS victory are 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home last 9 opportunities.
I know alot of pundits think that UCLA might be turning a corner , after that last effort but if you look at the stats and slash lines for the Bruins, its obvious despite of last weeks crazy performance that this is highly not a probable hypothesis.
UCLA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game .
UCLA is 7-19 ATS in road games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season.
Sumlin is 12-3 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or less) in all games . Sumlin is 21-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - in conference games, off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog are 27-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arizona to cover
|09-28-19||Colorado State v. Utah State -23.5||24-34||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
Utah State has been merciless against opponents at home of late as is evident by the following trend. This team does not take their foot off the pedal in start to finish wipeout wins. Note: UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 40.6 ppg.
Utah State after playing against a staunch San Diego State D, will be ready to explode offensively against a Colorado State side allowing more than 40 ppg on the season. As far a s aback door cover , I doubt the banged up Rams who are expected to play without their top RB Marvin Kinsey (shoulder) and QB Colin Hill (ACL) this week to be much of a threat.
Utah State is 17-0-1 ATS L/18 as a favorite of at least three points facing a team averaging at least 30 points per game with the L/5 wins coming by margins of 55,39,39,42,31 points.
Play on Utah State to cover
|09-28-19||Ohio State -17 v. Nebraska||48-7||Win||100||130 h 58 m||Show|
An explosive looking Ohio State heads to Lincoln to go against up trending but not quite ready for prime time Nebraska. The Buckeyes are coming off a merciless clobbering ,over Miami (Ohio) at home by a 76-5 count . Ohio State has looked like a championship calibre team behind Quarterback Justin Fields who is already making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy and here today vs a Nebraska team that has been in close affairs vs much lesser sides, Im expecting a beatdown by the away side, as this tilt progresses. My own projections estimate a 20+ point win by the Buckeyes, making this a viable side option backing Ohio State.
NEBRASKA is 1-9 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NEBRASKA is 0-7 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
CFB road team (OHIO ST) - allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road favorites of -425 or higher vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 44-1 SU with the average ppg diff of +23.1 ppg going on the board.
CFB Road favorites (OHIO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 52-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Ohio State to cover
|09-28-19||Kentucky v. South Carolina -2.5||7-24||Win||100||37 h 25 m||Show|
The Kentucky Wildcats are suffering with QB injuries as both their starters QB Terry Wilson and Sawyer Smith are injured or less than 100%. Bob Stoops troops can still play top tier D, but having their offence limited thanks to their QB issues makes them fade material here vs South Carolina this week.
The Cats are 0-10 ATS versus conference foes when coming off a double- digit loss . KENTUCKY is 20-36 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play since 1992.
South Carolina to cover
|09-28-19||Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State||13-26||Loss||-110||79 h 29 m||Show|
Oklahoma State is off an emotional hard fought affair that they lost to Texas last week and could now easily be in an emotional letdown spot . It must be noted that Cowboys HC Mike Gundy is 1-3 ATS as a favorite versus undefeated Big 12 opposition and 1-5 ATS as conference home favorite of 9.5 points or less. Oklahoma State is built to run and gun through with their efficiency leaning on their air attack which is not a good omen here vs a Kansas State side, with a top tier defensive secondary that is ranked 2nd in the nation, allowing just 118.7 YPG. HC Chris Kleiman is on a 24-0 SU road run dating back to his days with NDSU and knows how to get his troops prepared to play on the road.
OKLAHOMA ST is 8-21 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32 or more minutes TOP, 21 or more FD's per game.
CFB Home favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 26-60 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Kansas State to cover
|09-28-19||Kansas State v. Oklahoma State OVER 59.5||13-26||Loss||-109||58 h 60 m||Show|
Last week vs Texas Oklahoma State showed me two things. One their offence remains very viable and No.2 their defence is horrendous. This week against a under rated Kansas State offence Im betting they get torched and that they have no choice but to open up with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game i have projected to go over the total. This line is actually as low as it is because of the lines-makers respect the Kansas State D esecially the secondary, and their propensity to eat cock time via a top tier run game, but the Cowboys can score against the best of defences. My projections estimate both sides will score more than 28 points. Note: KANSAS ST is 57-0 OVER when both teams score 28 or more points since 1992 with the combined average score of 75.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 11-1 OVER in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 season with a combined average of 79.5 ppg scored.
OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or kore rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 89 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 70 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 85.4 ppg scored.
Oklahoma State is 15-0 OVER L/4 seasons at home when they allowed at least 28 points last game with the average combined score of 81.8 ppg going on the board. Every game surpassed todays total, with the smallest out put clicking in at 69 combined points.
|09-28-19||Louisiana Tech -8.5 v. Rice||23-20||Loss||-110||82 h 10 m||Show|
LA Techs Skip Holtz despite of not getting alot of respect as a favourite in the recent past is now 2-0 ATS as chalk this season so far and Im betting he makes it 3 in a row here this Saturday vs Rice a football program with no recent tradition of winning as is evident by 6 victories in the last 3 seasons combined. The Owls had alot of players back from last season, but that does not mean much considering their previous performances. So far this season Rice is just 0-4 SU losing the stats battle all 4 times. Louisiana Tech’s has owned this series of late going a perfect 5-0 SU with the average margin of victory coming by 48 PPG and Im betting on another big time win here this Saturday.
Rice is 0-7 ATS as dogs of less than 17 points versus team with a record of .600 or better.
LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.LOUISIANA TECH is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
CFB road team (LOUISIANA TECH) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-1 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.1 .
Play on LA Tech to cover
|09-28-19||Cincinnati -3.5 v. Marshall||52-14||Win||100||82 h 30 m||Show|
I have alot of respect for both these football programs, but I feel Cincinnati is the superior side, yes even here in Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Add to that the motivation of the Bearcats wanting revenge for a embarrassing 38-21 loss to the Herd at home during the 2017 season, and we have a favourable situation laying lumber here with Luke Fickells Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are also off a bye week and well rested, and will have a freshness edge vs a Marshall side that is just 0-5 ATS in their L/5 in back to back homes games which is the situation this Saturday.
The key this week will be the ability of the Bearcats top tier front 7 to limit the Thundering Herds key mode of moving the ball ....which is their ground game.
CFB home team (MARSHALL) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), in non-conference games are 21-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover
|09-28-19||SMU v. South Florida +8||48-21||Loss||-110||79 h 54 m||Show|
Sonny dykes really has the SMU Mustangs playing good football, but after upsetting TCU 41-38 last week I can see his up-trending team being in a letdown situation vs a under rated opponent playing at home. I know Charlie Strong may not inspire bettors but according to my projections we have value with the rested home dog.
Mustangs are just 3-12-1 SU and 3-13 ATS away when coming off a SU underdog win, including 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in conference tilts.
SMU is 2-15 ATS after a win by 3 or less points.
Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Mustangs are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Play on the USF Bulls to cover
|09-28-19||Florida Atlantic +1 v. Charlotte||45-27||Win||100||80 h 31 m||Show|
Florida Atlantics Lane, Kiffin is 2-2 this season,. but Im betting they come out on top here today at Jerry Richardson Stadium as they have revenge on board for a 27-24 defeat vs Charlotte as a 16-point home favorite in the final game of the 2018 season, costing the Owls to become Bowl eligible . Kiffin owns an 8-3 ATS record when he has revenge on the road and with the fan base getting restless you can bet he will have his team revved up to perform this week.
vOwls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
49ers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games in September.
CFB road team (FLA ATLANTIC) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (34 or more PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-6 SU L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Florida Atlantic to cover
|09-28-19||Iowa State v. Baylor +3||21-23||Win||100||78 h 44 m||Show|
Matt Rhule's Baylor a side that has out yarded their opponents by 235 jpg is going to be really primed to pull of the underdog upset here at home vs visiting Iowa State where they are 5-0 ATS L/5 at home. Last season the Bears lost 28-14 on the road at Ames, and now with revenge on board should really be fired up to get some payback. Note: Teams in this series with revenge have cashed 10 of the L/12 opportunities.
HC Rhule is 15-3 ATS L/18 against conference opposition like the Cyclones coming off a double-digit win.Rhule is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992.Rhule is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
IOWA ST is 6-17 ATS in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BAYLOR) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 32-9 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Baylor to cover
|09-28-19||Buffalo +2.5 v. Miami-OH||20-34||Loss||-112||122 h 38 m||Show|
After being bruised and battered and humiliated by Ohio State last week Im betting Miami O, wont be in the best of spirits, as they face a Buffalo team entering this game with momentum and confidence after they themselves pummelled a very good Temple squad last week.
CFB home team vs. the money line (MIAMI OHIO) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games is 3-33 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home favorites (MIAMI OHIO) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 4-23 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover
|09-28-19||Middle Tennessee State +24 v. Iowa||3-48||Loss||-110||72 h 59 m||Show|
Middle Tennessee State started their season covering vs Michigan but last time out were blasted by DDs by a under rated Duke team. Now this week I look for the Blue Raiders to be capable underdogs vs a Iowa side that has a tendency of playing down to opponents, and is also looking ahead to playing the Michigan Wolverines next week.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 27-13 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points and are 4-1 ATS L/5 non conference road dogs of 14 points or more.
This selection is based on the mathematics of my projections vs this line.
Play on the Middle Tenn State to cover
|09-27-19||Arizona State v. California OVER 41||24-17||Push||0||27 h 20 m||Show|
California Bears quarterback Chase Garbers, threw for four touchdowns and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in a big time performance. QUOTE: “Chase was awesome. That’s the best game he has played; it’s not even close,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox told reporters. END QUOTE: I know California has a reputation for playing top tier D with Wilcox at the helm the last few seasons, but now with momentum on his side I look for Garbers to be cut loose and for the offence to begin to be more potent. Meanwhile, Arizona State , a fast improving offensive line that has two freshmen on board. This group is giving alot of protection Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels who threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and allowed the Sun Devils to be dangerous with play option modules, senior wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who had nine receptions for 122 yards and a TD and Eno Benjamin who had 83 yards and two TDs via the ground attack. Both sides are recognized as defensive teams, but both offences are improving and Im betting on more points here than the lines makers are anticipating. Note:The Sun Devils have scored in double figures in 123 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the nation.
Over is 8-2 in Sun Devils last 10 Friday games.Over is 13-5 in Golden Bears last 18 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
|09-27-19||Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech||45-10||Win||100||56 h 30 m||Show|
Coming off a 41-18 road victory over Middle Tennessee and a bye week, Duke enters ACC play as a possible dark horse in the Coastal Division and viable underdog vs a chaotic style defence that Virginia Tech utilizes. Tonight Im betting on the Blue Devils under rated QB Quentin Harris to handle the aggressive Virginia Tech defense. Harris owns a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio of four to one so far in the season and is the wild card here.
Note: Well rested Duke off a bye week has revenge on board for a 31-17 loss to VTech as 7-point home fav last year and will be primed for pay back.
The Dog is 5-1 ATSL/6 in this series.
DUKE is 9-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. DUKE is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA TECH) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season are 30-68 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Duke Blue Devils to cover
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers -3.5||34-27||Loss||-115||34 h 16 m||Show|
I said it earlier this season, and Im still on board with my thinking that this is a special version of the Green Bay Packers and that if they can avert injuries may surprise alot of pundits this season with a Super Bowl run. As far as this game goes, I really feel strongly that the Packers are the superior side, especially at home vs a Eagles team that is banged up with alot of injuries. Note: QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 ATS in his career in prime time Thursdays and a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in his career vs the Eagles.
NFL teams like the Packers that enter game 4 of the season at 3-0 ATS are 10-0 ATS against 0-3 ATS teams lhe Eagles since 1980.
GREEN BAY is 20-5 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.
NFL Underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, when playing on a Thursday are 21-52 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover
|09-23-19||Bears v. Redskins +4||31-15||Loss||-105||132 h 3 m||Show|
Chicago just can't move the ball, and QB Trubisky looks lost 90% of the time. The Bears were fortunate to get a win last week vs Denver, but now in a letdown situation after that lucky and emotional win,Im betting on a rocky performance especially with this being the Bears 2nd straight road game. Bottom line is the Redksins have an edge getting points at home.
WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Washington to cover
|09-22-19||Saints +4.5 v. Seahawks||33-27||Win||100||93 h 16 m||Show|
While confirming that starting quarterback Drew Brees would have surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, New Orleans Saints Coach Sean Payton said the offensive plan for Sunday’s game against Seattle will include both the No.2 and No3 quarterbacks, Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill. Seattle HC Carroll will have his hands full facing and strategizing against a two QB system . Do not count out the talented Saints ability compete here.
Payton is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 27-13 ATS off a road loss as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate.
Play on the Saints to cover
|09-22-19||Steelers +7 v. 49ers||20-24||Win||100||55 h 6 m||Show|
The Steelers begin life without injured future HOF QB Ben Roethisberger, and instead will be forced to start Mason Rudolph . Don't feel to sorry for the Steelers however, as there some talent still left, as well as a top tier coach in Tomlin who has proven he can guide his team to victory even when Big Ben is on the sidelines as is evident by winning 10 of 17 games su without their star QB. I know the Niners are getting alot of accolades and playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum than the Steelers, but in the past the 49ers are bad bets vs the following perimeters going just 1-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back ATS wins, and an unperfected 0-7 ATS off non-division tilts when facing opposition coming off consecutive losses like the Steelers.
NFL teams like the Niners in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are jus 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons.
PITTSBURGH in their L/103 games as a road underdog since 1992 have seen an average ppg diff of -1.8 ppg.
NFL Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-34 ATS L/36 seasons for go go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover
|09-22-19||Raiders v. Vikings OVER 42||14-34||Win||100||124 h 18 m||Show|
Both Minnesota and Oakland are off losses last week after notching victories in week 1.
This week I expect the Vikings to come out with all guns blazing after suffering a loss to the Packers last week by a 21-15 count. Cousins the Vikings QB did not have a great performance last week, but here at home vs a Raiders’ defense that has allowed a 120.5 passer rating and that will be without safety Jonathan Abram, Im betting Cousins flourishes and puts a load of points and production on the board via play action based on RB Dalvin Cooks ability to open up the field with the run. He leads the NFL with 265 rushing yards . Im also expecting Raiders QB Derek Carr to do just enough damage to see this combined score eclipse the total.
Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings.
NFL team against the total (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 61-24 OVER L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
NFL teams like Oakland are 28-0 OVER L/28 as a 5 or more point underdog on artificial turf when they are off a home loss and facing a non-divisional opponent that is allowing fewer than 22.8 ppg season-to-date, but had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last contest.
|09-22-19||Dolphins +22 v. Cowboys||6-31||Loss||-110||93 h 50 m||Show|
Wow.Im not going to blame the public here for being brave enough to lay 3+ TDS with Dak Prescott and Co. as last week they watched squares and sharps cash on the New England Pats. in a 43-0 whitewash that saw bettors laying -19 . In two games the Dolphins have shown no pride or fight what so ever while getting out scored 102-10. Now the pundits and even their dogs are laughing at the Fins, and this week Im expecting this group to come out in a nasty mood after being embarrassed. Remember these are not College kids and they dont like to be made to look like fools. it must also be noted that Dak Prescott is no Tom Brady modus operandi usually very precise and conservative that does not pile up points via a fast all out attack. The Cowboys are more of a grinding side, which gives me credence in my choice to take 22 points here in what Im betting is a mathematical edge according to my projections.
NFL Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Dallas head coach Jason Garrett has covered just 7 of his L/22 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or greater.
NFL Home favorites (DALLAS) - good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 11-34 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 11-34 ATS record L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate fir bettors.
Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover
|09-22-19||Jets +24 v. Patriots||14-30||Win||100||90 h 15 m||Show|
New England clobbered hapless Miami last week, and now with a 3rd string QB expected to start this week for the Jets another beatdown is expected. However im betting QB Luke Falk via star RB Levon Bell and some other trickery will be utilized this Sunday and that the Jets a team that has a history of hanging tough at Gillette Stadium will get us the cover.
Over the last 26 seasons seven NFL games have closed with a point spread of 20 points or higher and those teams are 7-0 straight up, but are just 1-6 against the spread. Since the 2007 season, favorites of 20 or more points are 0-5 ATS , failing to, cover the spread by 11.4 points per game.
NFL team (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-39 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
|09-22-19||Bengals +6 v. Bills||17-21||Win||100||51 h 9 m||Show|
Buffalo comes into this game off two straight road wins to start their season, and the city of Buffalo is now sky high. So as in their usual fashion, I won't be surprised of the Bills crap the bed here this week vs the Bengals, a team that has played Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde football to begin their campaign, playing well on the road vs Seattle in week 1 and than falling asleep at the proverbial wheel in game two and clobbered by DDs by non other than the 49ers. Now in a rebound mode I expect the Bengals to come out here, and really give the Bills a battle. Note: Buffalo is recently just 3-13 SU and 3-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.
NFL teams like the Bills in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games are just 11-27-2 ATS L/40 opportunities for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Also home teams off back to back road games to start their season in their home opener have covered under 50% of their games dating back 16 seasons.
NFLUnderdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - pathetic defense from last season - allowed 385 or more total yards/game are 31-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover
|09-22-19||Ravens +6 v. Chiefs||28-33||Win||100||51 h 58 m||Show|
Public darlings KC enter this game as favourites vs the upstart Baltimore Ravens who have clobbered opponent after opponent all the way back into the preseason and are Im betting capable of hanging with the explosive KC Chiefs.The Ravens are outgunning their opposition by +267 net YPG while averaging a league-best 41 PPG. Both teams can score , but the difference maker will come on D, where the. Ravens despite of some short comings are still better than the Swiss cheese D of the Chiefs that plays with very little emotion thanks to QB Patrick Mahomes ability to give them huge leads.
I do believe the Ravens are putting alot miles on their bodies out of the gate this season with all out performances which could effect them later on in the campaign, but for this week Im expecting a full pedal to the metal performance.
KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
Baltimore has won and covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Arrowhead. KC won last year 27-24 here at home, but it must be noted that HC Haraugh is 7-0-1 ATS the last eight when seeking revenge for a loss.
NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 10-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover
|09-21-19||Utah State v. San Diego State +4.5||23-17||Loss||-115||86 h 2 m||Show|
Rocky Longs San Diego State Aztecs have won two straight to begin their season, and look very much to be under rated here at home today vs a good but also over rated Utah State football program. This is a classic setup of offence vs defence. The Aggies are explosive, but the Aztecs D, is of the top tier variety as is evident by allowing just 248 yards and 8 points per game so far.
SD St is a perfect 4-0 ATS L/4 as a home underdog.
Aztecs coach Rocky Long is 12-1 ATS in his career as a conference dog when coming off back to back SU/ATS wins.
UTAH ST is 10-22 ATS in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Long is 11-2 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.
CFB Road favorites (UTAH ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 10-33 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the San Diego State Aztecs to cover
|09-21-19||Notre Dame +14.5 v. Georgia||17-23||Win||100||83 h 20 m||Show|
Georgia won 20-19 in 2017 at South Bend the last time these two football programs met. Now the rematch switches to Athens. The Dawgs are just 4-10 ATS L/14 at home with non conference revenge.
This game is of ultra importance to the Fighting Irish as they have no conference championship game to play in, thus this becomes a must-win for Notre Dame and Im betting they come out here like a rabid dogs and metaphorically ready to fight to the death. Meanwhile Georgia can afford to suffer a loss and still be a front runner come selection Sundayand may not play with the same tenacity they would in a SEC tilt. Note: Underdogs of more than 12 points who won 12 or more games the previous season are 11-0 ATS over the L/4 seasons ( Notre Dame fits the bill and gets my support)
Kelly is 7-0 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached
CFB road team (NOTRE DAME) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a81% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road underdogs (NOTRE DAME) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100 or more YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 46-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Notre Dame to cover
|09-21-19||Notre Dame v. Georgia OVER 58||17-23||Loss||-109||76 h 24 m||Show|
Needless to say that these teams Notre Dame and Georgia are explosive offensively with Notre Dame averaging 50.5 ppg so far this season and Georgia producing 49.3 ppg overall. The last time these teams played Notre Dame came away with a 20-19 victory, but both these teams dynamics have changed since then and Im projecting an all out head to head slugfest in the rematch. First team to 40 wins.
GEORGIA is 9-1 OVER after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored.
Over is 3-1-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 8-3-2 in Bulldogs last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Fighting Irish last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 16-7 in Fighting Irish last 23 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 15-5 in Fighting Irish last 20 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Play on the OVER
|09-21-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas -5||30-36||Win||100||81 h 42 m||Show|
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have beat up on 3 inferior programs to start their campaign, and Texas in their only real battle, vs LSU (45-38) showed they are still up-trending despite of regression worries from the pundits . I know Oklahoma State has won 4 straight close battles in this series, but Texas according to my power rankings is the superior side, in a tilt vs a Cowboys team has failed to cover its L/7 Big12 openers. At anything lower than -7 Im laying here.
OKLAHOMA ST is 0-7 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992.
TEXAS is 13-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
CFB Home favorites (TEXAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 25-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Texas to cover
|09-21-19||Oregon v. Stanford +10.5||21-6||Loss||-105||57 h 28 m||Show|
Stanford was annihilated last week by UCF in a DD beatdown. The Cardinal were in an unfortunate letdown spot last week after a loss to USC the previous week. However, after their last embarrassing effort I expect a bounce back effort here at home where the Cardinal are 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog dating back 12 seasons, including 4-0 SUATS with head coach David Shaw. It must also be noted that Oregon has only cashed 4 of their L/21 away from Eugene .
OREGON is 1-8 ATS after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-6 ATS L/24 versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 4.25 or less yards/play STANFORD is 28-13 ATS L/41 vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att.
CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 19-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Stanford to cover
|09-21-19||New Mexico State +5 v. New Mexico||52-55||Win||100||76 h 47 m||Show|
New Mexico does not have a culture of winning in place and have now lost 17 of their L/21 SU overall. Davies HC Lobos played their hearts out against Notre Dame last week despite of being pounded by a 66-14 count and won't have enough left in the tank to be near enough dominant to cover the number this week in this instate rivalry game.
Davie is 2-9 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference game as the coach of NEW MEXICO.Davie is 6-18 ATS (as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on New Mexico State to cover
|09-21-19||South Carolina v. Missouri -9||14-34||Win||100||77 h 27 m||Show|
Missouri has not beaten South Carolina since the 2016 season, but Im betting that comes to end here this week at home vs a side that was battered and beaten physically last week by Alabama . it must be noted that Carolina maybe getting too much respect out of the gate this season, as they have been outgunned and out-gained by their 2 FBS opponents this season. Last season the Tigers lost 37-35 to the Gamecocks but were the superior side in the stats battle outgaining the Birds by a 490-377 count . Im expecting those numbers to be replicated and or bettered this week, and for Missouri to get the cover in convincing fashion.
Missouri have dominated their last two opponents outscoring them by a 88-7 count.MISSOURI is 16-5 ATS in home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.
CFB home team (MISSOURI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 SU with the average point per game diff registering at +20.2 ppg.
Play on Missouri to cover
|09-21-19||Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12.5||34-35||Win||100||81 h 22 m||Show|
UCF is off a convincing full throttle beat down of Stanford last week, and could easily find themselves in a natural letdown spot here vs Pittsburgh this week. Meanwhile, the Panthers thanks to a hard nosed D, and athletic top tier secondary gave Penn State all they could handle last week in a 17-10 loss and Im betting will be a handful for the Knights here in this spot.
UCF is 0-13 SU in its school history in games against current FBS teams when the Knights are coming off a current FBS affiliated foe.
PITTSBURGH is 10-0 ATS L/10 after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers since 1992.
CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77%conversion rate.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
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