Cappers Sports Picks

The Packers are a injury riddled group right now and Aaron Rodgers looks less than 100%  healthy ,but their defence is holding up well and have held their last two opponents to season low outputs.I expect they will continue to stand tall vs a Niners team with a  uncertain QB situation thanks to Jimmy G being out with an injury and top RB (Jerick McKinnon) out, and it must also be noted that eight offensive players were on the sideline during Thursday's practice due to injuries.

 Also an interesting trends run here indicates GB could be in a letdown situation  as they  have gone under 8 straight times after playing long time rivals Detroit who they faced last week. Meanwhile, SF despite of losing to Arizona thanks to 5 turnovers last week held the Arizona Cards to 220 yards of Total offence. The 49ers D, has not always looked cohesive this season, but considering how banged up the Packers are they  have a viable opportunity to make them selves look like respectable stoppers this Monday night. 

Look for two banged up offences to play fairly conservatively here this evening, and for this combined total to stay on the low side of the number.

NFL team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 26-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. The average posted total was 46 and the average combined score clicked in at 38.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The KC Chiefs and their young gunslinger QB Patrick Mahomes goes head to head with future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady this Sunday night in a prime time affair with a justifiably high total attached to it. Both teams can put points up in bunches and both have shown a reluctance or inability to play consistent defence. Last year KC came into New England and won a 42-27 battle, and if the Pats get up here you know they won't take the pedal of the metal , knowing how explosive the Chiefs can be, and also wanting to inflict some pain on their opponent in revenge mode. KC will respond in kind . Let the fireworks begin. OVER. 

New England has averaged 34,3 ppg at home this season. KC's offence  has averaged 35.7 ppg on the road and the D has give up 29.3 ppg.

NFL games with an exceptionally high Totals line of 58 or more points have gone 7-0-1 O/U since since the 2000 campaign . The highest total ever registered was 60 points back in 2004 where  KC and Oakland put 61 points on the board eclipsing the 60 point totals line. 

Play on the OVER 

The Titans style of play is a old school approach to the game and methodical in nature. They like to smash and crash their way to the promised land , while the Ravens like to run and gun and utilize their array of offensive weapons. Here today, Im betting the Titans will have no choice to open up against a team that can pile points upon a hurry. Both teams took part in low scoring affairs last week and will be itching to see their offences flow this week. Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9 and are 8-1 OVER after they score 10 points or less.TENNESSEE is 21-6 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992 which happened against Buffalo in a 13-12 loss last week and 7-1 OVER L/8 after the scored 13 or less points 

The L/3 games in this series have gone over with a combined average of 45 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 26-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 30-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Redskins enter this game on short rest after their defence was exposed on Monday night vs the New Orleans Saints as they lost 43-19.  Meanwhile, the Panthers D, did not look much better in a 33-31 win vs the NY Giants last week and more importantly were out gained 432 to 350 yards. It must be noted that Washington is 12-0 OVER  on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed more points and more than 345 yards of offense in their last game. The Panthers are 19-0 OVER since 1998 as a dog when the total is over 34 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points.  

The Panthers feature the league's top-ranked ground game, averaging 154.0 yards per game which is a good omen for us cashing a OVER ticket as  the Redskins are 15-0 OVER vs a team that is averaging at least 28.5 rushes per game.

CAROLINA is 17-3 OVER L/20 in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 61.5 ppg. 

WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 56 ppg. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 13-4 OVER  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 49 ppg scored.

NFL games are 18-0 OVER since the start of last season in non-divisional games that are lined within three of pickem between teams with the same winning percentage, as long as the host team is not on a five-plus game winning or losing streak.

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 51-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

The Jets despite of notching a win last week, vs a sleepy looking Denver team were not particularly efficient and still had two turnovers, which is not a good omen for them this week vs top tier QB  Andrew Luck  and Colts. It must be noted that NFL teams that had fewer than six wins the previous season are 0-18 ATS at home when they are off a home win in which they committed two-plus turnovers and have lost 15 of the 18 games SU. Meanwhile, the Colts are off having their butts kicked in a Thursday night clash last week in prime time, and have shown a propensity to bounce back well with Luck at the helm of the offence, as is evident by  Indys record when coming off a SUATS loss, recording a  22-4 SU  mark along with a bankroll expanding  21-5 ATS  record in his NFL career – including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against below .500 opposition and a perfect  7-0 ATS when coming off a non-division double- digit loss as was the case vs the Indianapolis and  is also 12-1 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss by more than a TD in which their opponent had more third down conversions than punts. With that said, expect Luck and company to cash this week vs a Jets side that is 0-4 ATS L/4 off a SU/ATS win. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Arizona has not played aggressively this season, and have actually  been quite methodical in their approach and now tonight against a superior side in  an away game I expect for the Cards to very conservative again . I know some might think that Arizona will be suddenly aggressive aftertaste weeks win, but they  had only 220 total yards in the game and picked up  just  10 first downs in the victory, and will once again be in that frame of mind here. The Cardinals are 0-8 UNDER on the road coming off a win where they gained no more than 18 first downs  Minnesota after big revenge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last week 23-21 and will be a in letdown scenario this week and could be just going through the motions vs a side that Im sure their not the inspired to play against. Minnesota is 1-9 UNDER  as a home favourite of 8 points or more and have gone UNDER 9 straight times as a home favorite of more than a TD coming off a tilt where they covered. MINNESOTA is 6-0 UNDER L/ 6 in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Atlanta enters this game banged up and displaying a atrocious D that is allowing just under 400  yards a game. Should they really be a FG favorite even here at home in their current state, Im saying maybe based on perceptions and respect from the recent past successes. However, based on tangible evidence and their current form, I definitely say their fade material vs a Tampa Bay team that must not be underestimated in their ability to upset them. I know TB  is coming off two straight losses, including an embarrassing 48-10 loss at Chicago Sept. 30. But pros don't like to be embarrassed and with a week of rest will be hell bent on getting redemption. TB has also  shown a propensity to bounce back, on the road after a bye and are 5-1 ATS with rest. 

ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS L/28 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 10-27 SU for a go against SU conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Wembley Stadium - London, England

The Seahawks are showing some signs of life after many began to write them off earlier this season as they have won 2 of their L/3 games and played a top tier LA Rams team tough last week losing a 33-31 battle but covering as 7 point dogs. Meanwhile, Oakland is showing very little  life and have lost 4 of their first 5 games  thanks mostly to a defense that is allowing 29.8 ppg and an offense that has scored more than 20 points once this season. Look for Seattle a team that averages 23.2 ppg to do some damage this week and to get us a cover.

OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.  

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 38-3 L/10 seasons for a SU 93% conversion rate for bettors. with the average victory coming by 9.6 ppg. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Im sure Wyoming does not inspire a lot of betting backers, because of their sub par record and crappy offence. But one thing this team can do is eat up clock and slow their games down to a crawl via a slow progressive run game, and a defence that is highly under rated.  Note: WYOMING is 13-4 ATS L/17  as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points . I know Fresno State looked powerful this season with their only loss coming against Minnesota, but it must be noted that Wyoming owns a 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs of 23 or less points  vs opp coming off consecutive victories and are viable investment options in this spot.  With that said, Im betting Fresno State is getting to much respect here for beating a struggling UCLA side and  a defensively deficient Toledo team travelling from east to west , and that Wyoming actually maybe more of headache for them then what the home side might expect. 

CFB team (WYOMING) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FRESNO ST) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 14-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Ole Miss are weak 7 point favs here according to my calculations. Overall this Ole Miss football program have been poor road favs failing to cover 24 of their L/30 in that role. I know they put 70 points up on UL Monroe last week, but their will be a reversion backwards in their output here, and with their defence as atrocious as it is, I expect a Arkansas offence that put 31 point on the board vs Alabama last week do a lot of damage here today in what could easily be a straight up win. t

Arkansas is  10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in this series with Ol Miss of late , and are 6-1 ATS l at home and 6-1 ATS under dogs. the two most recent meetings in this series were decided by 4 and 1 point respectively. 

ARKANSAS is 21-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. ARKANSAS is 25-12 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992

OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 2 seasonsOLE MISS is 0-6 ATS  after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Middle Tennessee State have just won 2 straight as underdogs  vs Marshall and Florida Atlantic and being under rated again, and a good bet to cover and even win outright here today vs a Florida International  side they matchup well against.Meanwhile,  Florida International is being over rated because of big offensive explosions against nasty D, Ark Pine Bluff and Umass and despite of looking offensively cohesive do not matchup well vs a physical  Middle Tenn State side that has shown dominance in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

A so called third string QB Purdy,  marched into Stillwater to face a pretty good  Okahoma State  football program last week and helped his team pull off a SU win as DD underdogs. This is just not any 3rd string QB, but one that threw for 7700 yards in his last couple of campaigns playing Texas High school ball and who was pursed by a lot of big name teams. After that big win I doubt very much Iowa State will be a in a letdown situation vs what is now one of favorites to win the Big 12 championship, especially here at home. This place will be rocking this week and so will Iowa States offence.

It must  also be noted that HC Matt Campbell playing as an underdog against opp like the Mountaineers coming off a SUATS victory is  11-1 ATS in conference games including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home.

IOWA ST is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of IOWA ST.

W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Washington (no7) is highly ranked, but Im not a true believer in them because of their lack offence as was evident last week in. lazy 7 point win vs a bad UCLA side. This week here on the road against the Ducks I won't be surprised if they are exposed by a under rated Oregon team that is well rested and off a bye and  will be primed to pull off a upset. Note: Oregon is 6-0 ATS L/6 with rest)

The Ducks are 113-23 SU L/21 seasons at home.

OREGON is 29-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OREGON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Oregon to cover 

This game features an explosive offensive team Ohio against a staunch physical defensive team with Northern Illinois. HC Solich is 9-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5  or less yards/play as the coach of OHIO U. Both these teams are undefeated in MAC play so expect this to be hard fought and closely contested with getting  points Im betting being golden.

Ohio has covered their L/4 trips to N.Illinois and won 3 of those game SU. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 47-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio to cover 

This version of Army is for real and a dangerous opponent as top tier teams like Buffalo U and Oklahoma  and Navy have already learned this season. A lot of old negative numbers showing Army as bad bets as road favs are now out dated as compared to the group HC Monk has assembled here at West Point this season.  I know San Jose State has played decently of late, at least from a competitive stand point, but Im betting their not built to handle Armys triple option attack and that they will get literally run over here today in a big way. San Jose State has given up a whopping 165 ypg on the ground this season. Im not a a long term proponent of constantly laying DD on the road, but some situations warrant such a wager and this is one of them. 

CFB Road favorites (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 23-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 28 ppg.

CFBA home team vs. the money line (SAN JOSE ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 3-28 SU L/10 seasons with the average point differential coming in at just under 3 TDS/PA a game (20.9).

Play on Army to cover 

 Zips HC Terry Bowden has already seen his under rated team upset Northwestern this season  and then played Iowa State tough in as visitors losing 26-13 but covering as 19.5 point dogs and despite of some down efforts almost always seem on the edge of being better then advertised. I know they lost last week to Miami O in ugly fashion, but in the past they have shown an ability to bounce back  going 6-1 ATS as dogs when coming off a SUATS loss.Bowden is 15-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of AKRON.

Meanwhile, Buffalo  at 5-1 behind future NFL draft pick 6’7” QB Tyree Jackson (ranked 8th in the nation in TD passes) have looked strong this season in MAC play, but has some alarming numbers attached to their  stats tags when it comes to Red Zone Offense efficiency rankings –    Bulls are  ranked second to last which is interesting considering their offensive output. Meanwhile, the Zips are the leaders in red zone efficiency. With that said, from a matchup perspective, the Zips are viable underdogs in this matchup on this DD line. 

AKRON is 6-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.Bowden is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of AKRON.

Play on Akron to cover 

Iowa enters this game as being fairly highly rated in my power rankings within the Big 10 and gets the nod here as short road favorites vs a very inconsistent Indiana side  that is  just 2-10 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile,  IOWA is 19-6 ATS L/25 opportunities as a road favorite of 7 points or less . Iowa has owned this series of late with a record of 6-1 SU, and add to that  are also 7-0 ATS as conference road favorites of 15 or less points. Everything points to Iowa coming out of this with a win and cover. 

Iowa is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 as a road favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards covering by more than 2 TDs a game on average. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are just 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover 

My projections estimate 55 or more points will go on the board this week, thus giving us value on this Totals number. This may not seem a lot of room for the average bettor but it is important to understand that from a long term perspective advantage betting is your best way to consistently beat the books over the long haul. 

INDIANA is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992 with a combined average 56.2 ppg going on the score board.INDIANA in its L/11 tilts against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.2 ppg get scored. 

Indiana is 11-0-1 OU off a game as a road dog that went over the total by more than seven points with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored which was the case vs Ohio State last week. 

 Iowa in their L/25 road games as favorite of 7 points or less have seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored.INDIANA is 41-17 OVER L/57 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 point with a combined average of 58.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

The Utes played a heck game vs Stanford last week and pulled off the upset as underdogs, but will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a Arizona team with a clutch QB at the helm Khalil Tate. With USC on board for Utah they may not have their heads completely into this game giving us room for a under appreciated Arizona team that has won 3 of their L/4 to get the cover  vs a side that has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 as 7 point chalk or more.

CFB Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are 119-64 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Eagles are experiencing a Super Bowl hangover and are just 2-3 on the season, despite of being competitive in all 5 games. They have also failed to cover 4 straight for their backers, but must be respected here tonight as they will be very primed to perform at an optimal  level after 2 straight losses. Meanwhile, the GMen have played well above their heads, so far , but are still just 1-4 SU and after their heartbreaking 33-31 loss last week in Carolina thanks to a nearly impossible 62 yard walk off FG. Im now betting the Giants will now be in an enormous letdown situation on short rest, which favours a hungry superior side. 

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 35-11 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 31-4 SU for a 89% conversion rate over the 10 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

Georgia Southern new HC Chad Lunsford,  has successfully returned this football program to a power run game that generates a lot of yards and points behind a ground game averaging 275 RYPG (No. 6 in the nation) averaging more than 30 points per game. They had one low output of 7 points against Clemson on the road, which can be excused. Last time out they scored 48 points as they are looking more cohesive with their attack as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Texas State has allowed 2 of their L/3 opponents to to light them up for 40+ points, and showed extreme weakness stopping their opponents ground attack allowing 327 rush yards last week vs UL  Lafayette. Im betting Georgia Southern attacks this perceived weakness with what they do best and for Texas State to have more problems vs this visiting colossal ground game, and I project the Eagles scoring in the mid to high 30s at least, with Texas State slightly improved offence projected to score 14-19 point range which coincides with the ats line. If my projected calculations are correct , which I'm betting they are, we have a viable opportunity here to cash an OVER ticket. 

GA SOUTHERN in their L/29 games when they score 28 or more points since 1992 have seen a combined average score of 67 ppg go on the scoreboard .Texas  st  L/30 off a loss against a conference rival have seen a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

Appalachian States offence is rolling with their lowest output (35 pts) coming against Penn State . Right now the Mountaineers look to be the class of the Sunbelt and have proven they can hang with teams like the Nittany Lions, and laying less than DDs with them looks like a steal . It's  never easy laying lumber with a road team in any sport and you have to do your due diligence which I have. This group of Mountaineers looks special indeed and as long as they stay motivated  Im betting Arkansas State does not have the needed fire power to cover this number vs a behemoth opponent. Appalachian State is also well rested which is a good omen here for us cashing a ticket, as they are 6-0 ATS after a bye week over the last 3 seasons. App State 39.5 Opponent 12.7

From a College Football wagering perspective we also have value according to current trends as listed below. 

CFB home team (ARKANSAS ST) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Appalachian State to cover 

The Vikings visit the  City of Brotherly Love primed and pumped up to avenge a embarrassing playoff loss  by a ugly 38-7  deficit in last years play offs.Minnesota is FG pup in this tilt after looking like a viable opponent  after  a  hard fought 38-31 loss on the road in LA last Thursday night. In the past the Vikings have been good bets in this situation, as they are  12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog of less than a TD coming off a road loss. Also. HC Zimmer in non-division games when coming off a loss, is 13-1-1 ATS in his last 15 chances and has cashed in 4 of his l/5 coming off a Thursday nighter. Meanwhile the Eagles are  just  0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of more than two points and did not look all that good in a loss last week to Tennessee in OT by a 26-23 count.

REVENGE . REVENGE. 

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

San Francisco has been  made more than a 3 point  favorite here because of their perceived superiority vs a 0-4 Arizona  team that is currently on the shit list for public bettors. However, laying points with SF is not a good bet when they are at home as is evident by a  0-11-2 ATS  as a home favorite since the 2012 season. Neither team inspires bettors, but getting points with a Arizona team that is getting better with former UCLA gunslinger Josh Rosen at the helm is a viable wagering opportunity. Plus watching SF blow a 14 point last week, vs the Chargers and eventually losing 29-27 is disheartening , and a bd omen for their chances today to cover, as  the 49'ers are 0-10 ATS playing on a natural surface after a loss in which they scored at least the first fourteen points of the game. It must also be noted that Arizona has lost 2 straight at home but the good news here is that the franchise is  7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog of 3 or more points when coming off consecutive home losses. Meanwhile, the  Niners are just 2-13 ATS at home following consecutive away losses. Im going against. the weak favorite this week and taking the ugly dog to cover. 

Arizona to cover 

The Seahawks  are being made big home dogs, here to an explosive Rams football team. With that said, I expect the Seahawks to take a conservative approach to this game, and try to eat up as much clock as possible via a slow methodical approach to their dangerous opponents which should result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. It must be noted that over the  last 5 years: All NFL road favorites of 7 or more points  when the Total is  43 points or more are 4-30-2 UNDER.I know the Rams own a big time offence, that has been putting points up in bunches this season but, NFL same-DIVISION chalk of 15 or less points who scored 33 or more points in each of their last four games  have gone  under 12 straight times. Also TD-plus home pups like Seattle with normal rest are 0-29 UNDER when they are off a road game in where they scored fewer than 23 points and had at least 21:20 of possession time, as long as their opponent is averaging less than 480 yards of offense per game like the Rams are. 

SEATTLE is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.1 ppg scored. 

NFL  team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 78-35 UNDER 35 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

I'm betting this game has inflated Total attached to it. I know there was a lot of scoring last weeks games, but this is definitely an over reaction by the lines makers according to my head to head stats .

The Chargers are 0-12-1 OU since  2012 at home coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw at least three touchdown passes. Which happened in a 29-27 win vs the 49ers last week.

The Raiders have gone  UNDER 9 straight  L9 division road games with a combined average of  (34.67) scored. 

 OAKLAND is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

Divisional underdogs up to +7 points like the raiders on normal rest when they are coming off an OT victory in a tilt where they were favored. are 4-19-1 UNDER. 

NFL team against the total (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 27-2 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Giants are one of these teams that continue to surprise many when they look down and out. This is not a good Giants team, but QB  Eli Manning is   32-17-3 ATS career mark in games during October – including 16-6-2 ATS away and seems to play his best football at this time of the season. I know expected future star RB Barkley only had 44  yards pastime out, but the NY GIANTS are long term good bet off a bad rushing performance cashing  26 of their L/38  ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards.The Giants' offense has plenty of playmakers to challenge the Panthers' defense.

Veteran quarterback Eli Manning has passed for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has 31 catches for 331 yards already, and rookie running back Saquon Barkley has rushed for 260 yards on 56 carries and three touchdowns.

Barkley has accumulated the most yards from scrimmage by a rookie so far this season with 453. The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft is the fifth player in NFL history with 100 or more yards from scrimmage in his first four career games.

NFL home favorites like Carolina  are 0-22 ATS on natural surface off a victory as a home favorite of 13 points or less when they are going against  a team that has averaged less than five rushing first downs per game and more than 3.5 yards per rush season-to-date.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

I like this game to go over the total despite of the perceived ineptness of both these offences. This over call in based on some key projections I have made . One of my projections estimates that Denver will average 100-125 yards rushing, which is a good omen , as the Broncos in their L/6 when they get to these numbers have seen a combined average of 45.3 ppg scored. 

Raiders are 11-3 OVER vs AFC East. These teams have gone over in the 5 of the L/6 meetings here in with  a combined average of (46.2) ppg going on the board. 

HC Joseph L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of DENVER has seen a combined score of 50.3 ppg scored

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 37-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Last week Buffalo looked horrendous in a 22-0 shutout loss to the Packers. But it must be noted that the Bills are 6-1 SU in games after having being shutout. From a league wide data base NFL teams coming off being blanked  who were in the playoffs the previous season are good bets as home dogs in their followup  going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 points or more. Truth is Buffalo is not that bad, and Tennessee is not that good despite of what the pundits might think after upsetting the Super Bowl Champs last week 26-23. Note:Away teams are just 13-41 SU and 15-39 ATS since 1992 after upsetting the defending Super bowl Champion. Im betting on an emotional letdown situation effecting the Titans this weak, and for redemption and embarrassment to be the catalyst for a Buffalo cover.

TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Wyoming is not as bad as their record would indicate and have the type of D, that can slow down the potent offensive attack of the Warriors. The Cowboys have held two opponents to season low offensive outputs and are under rated here on this trip to Hawaii to play a team that defensively challenged and  is looking tired after putting up some serious flyer reward points this season. 

HAWAII is 0-10 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons which was the case vs San Jose State last week.

HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Wyoming is 7-1 L/8 trips to paradise island.

WYOMING is 6-0 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. 

The Hawaii  Rainbow Warrriors football program have been lousy favs in the past as is evident by their 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games as chalk, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven overall. 

CFBome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HAWAII) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 21-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

 Notre Dame is not a true 7 point favorite here on the road vs a well coached VTech team. Hey I respect how good the Irish have looked so far this season, but you have to respect  the Hokies as dogs here on their own home field.  Yes, Tech lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago in perplexing fashion  but they did bounce back last week against a good Duke team in a 31-14 victory as underdogs. Backup QB Ryan Willis,  who was inserted after starting QB Jackson went down, was 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions and must also be respected to keep his team moving forward this week.  Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14  as a home dog.  Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home tilts against non-conference opposition with only one defeat coming  by more than a touchdown. Lane Stadium will be rocking, so if I were Notre Dame I wouldn't come a knocking.

 VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 14-44 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

After playing Alabama lat week this game  for UL Lafayette vs a struggling Texas State team will seem like a walk in the park. Another loss they suffered was to Miss State and a underrated Coastal Carolina and they must not be underestimated in their ability vs a much less talented group at like the Bobcats that are suppose to start a  freshman QB this week behind a inconsistent offensive line. The home team has not played anywhere near  the competition UL Lafayette has played and Im betting that will become evident here this Saturday. 

UL Lafayette is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series, with the last two showing 24-7 and 27-3 wins home and away.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference game are 43-16 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

A lot of pundits keep on betting on Kentucky not being the real deal. But after watching them a lot closer of late Im betting they are and won't go out here today without a fight vs Jimbo Fisher and company. The key to their ability to cover here will hinge on a defense that is  ranked 11th in the nation, allowing just 13 points and 288 yards per game. Thats not good news for Texas A&M QB Mond who struggled in a 24-17 win over Arkansas last week, going 17 of 26 for 201 yards. He threw two interceptions for the second straight game and is downgraded on my QB power rankings list.

KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover 

HC Mullen’s took out the Miss State Bulldogs last week and are now an impressive improved 3-0 SUATS and have won the stats battle in those 3 games since losing to a strong undefeated Kentucky football program in Week Two. I know that LSU is perfect on the season, and playing really good football, but Mullens is a coach that knows how to deal with teams like the Tigers as he was 4-0 ATS vs LSU when he coached Miss State. Last season these teams took part in a 17-16 sleepers the SWAMP and Im betting on another close game today. Oregon has not done well in his career vs.750 SEC opposition like the Gators , garnering a ugly 2-13 SU in that role.

Play on Florida to cover

Wow what a crazy situation Clemson finds itself in. QB Kelly Bryant announced he was leaving the team after HC Dabo Swinney decided to start Trevor Lawrence against Syracuse. However, Lawrence I'm sure much to the delight of Bryant and family. was forced out of the Orange game with an injury and backup Chase Brice,  took over. Thats never good for team morale, but their overall talent got them through that game vs Syracuse , but just barely barely 27-23. That game was at home, but here on the road where the Tigers are 0-9 ATS L/10 as 18 point or more favs Clemson is in trouble. Wake is seeking some payback vs Clemson losing 28-14 last season. Wake is a money making 9-0 ATS  L/9with ACC revenge and are 6-0 ATS skein as double-digit home dogs.

CLEMSON is 13-26 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. 

Clemson is 0-12 ATS  as a road favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Wake Forest to cover 

Iowa State has not done a lot of scoring this season, but against this kind of team they will have to open, up as Im expecting the Cowboys to really do some damage today against a decent defence. Oklahoma State has already proven they can score against the best of defences, putting 44 points up against Boise State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's D, is not of the grade 1 variety,  and I look for Iowa State to do enough damage to get this game into over territory in a score similar to the 37-27 (64 pts) loss they suffered to Oklahoma back on Sept 15.

OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.8 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 76.9 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA ST is 33-8 OVER  in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 2ith a combined average of 72.6 ppg scored.

Oklahoma State is 13-0-1 OVER at home coming off a game where they gained at least 24 first downs.

Play OVER 

These teams took part in a 17-16 snoozefest last season with the Tigers winning , and Im expecting another low scoring sleeper this time round in the swamp. The year before that the Florida won 16-10. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE.

LSU is 12-1 UNDER after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg scored. FLORIDA is 9-1 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.1 ppg scored.


LSU is 0-10 UNDER off a win as a home favorite of more than a TD where they allowed less than 21 points.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (FLORIDA) - after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

 Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds an all-time series lead against the Sooners (61-46-5). The last four meetings  in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less,  with the  Horns taking the advantage via a  a 5-0 ATS series make in the  last five meetings. Im betting on more of the same tough close action here again and for the home team to get us the cover behind a solid D, and capable offense. 

TEXAS is 7-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 6-0 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-2 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Texas head coach Tom Herman is  11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a above .500 record.

Play on Texas to cover 

Alabama has accumulated much of its big numbers vs patsies this season, with the one decent team they played being Texas A&M and that game was alot closer than the lines makers expected. I know Arkansas in their current form may not inspire bettors but this is still a proud program that despite of going through growing pains is capable of covering here at home in front of their own alumni. The promise their showing comes via a Defence, that has allowed their last 3 opponents seasons low offensive outputs including last weeks 24-17 loss vs TexasA&M covering as 19 point dogs.  It must also be noted that only 3 times since 1977 spanning 274 games have the Hogs lost by more than 36  points. Don't get me wrong the Tide are a behemoth opponent and more than capable of blasting a team like Arkansas, but Im betting the Razorbacks come out here and play this game like a national championship. 

ARKANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

CFB Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS) - with 17 or more total starters returning are 52-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Eastern Michigans football program is one of the most under rated college football programs in the nation. They can't seem to get over the hump when its comes to notching big wins, and are off a triple OT loss last time out vsN.Illinois,  but what they have consistently done is be very competitive opponents thanks to a gruelling hardcore brand of physical football. Today against Western Michigan Im betting on a very closely contested battle that favours the visitors to cover or pull off the SU upset. 

E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons and are 11-1 ATS L/12 as road underdogs in tis series vs Western Michigan.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

I waited on this Total to make a move downward and it did, and now Im suggesting we take an over stance, as both teams boast to strong QBs who can air it out in a big way. I know these two teams find themselves in the bottom 15 of the FBS in first downs gained on offense but this trend Im betting irons itself out in a hurry, most probably starting tonight. Both sides have had problems running the ball, and I expect both to look downfield quite a bit tonight and a game I have pegged to go over the total .

Both are off big wins , with Middle Tennessee State taking out Flordia Atlantic25-24 and Marshall defeating Western Kentucky 20-17 . Both will now be primed to keep their engines revving and a lot of energy should be on tonights agenda.

Note: Middle Tennesses offensive road numbers and overall offensive averages have been tainted by playing super power Georgia and a decent SEC side Vanderbilt. In their game against lower tier Tenn Martin they put 61 points on the board. 

Holliday is 6-0 OVER  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of MARSHALL with a combined average of 84 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Talk about a revenge scenario. Well thats what we have tonight as the New England Pats host the Indianapolis Pats. The Colts were the team that essentially were the ones who reported Pats super star QB Tom Brady to the league for deflated balls, which supposedly gave him an advantage. Known as Deflategate it has been a sore spot for the Pats and their fans for a while, and Im betting some pay back will be at hand tonight no matter what Brady and Belichick say to the media. The Pats started slowly this season, but after watching them destroy of the undefeated Dolphins last week 38-7 Im betting on them to continue to explode, even if the often injured TE Gronkowski does not play because of a pulled hamstring.  Yes, the Pats might have seemed susceptible early on this season, thanks to a ugly rush stopping acumen, but a Colts teams ranked  29th in rushing won be a team that can take advantage of any perceived weaknesses.

The Colts' best receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is unlikely to play which also puts the Colts at a disadvantage. Indianapolis has very few other  offensive weapons and their  defense is shoddy to say the least and Im betting Brady can look at and go up and down the field all day long and make them pay big time with properly inflated balls.

Brady is 5-0 against Luck.

Patriots have won 9 of their L/12 on Thursday night    and are a profitable 20-8-2 ATS L30  as Home favorites and get the nod again tonight.

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10  off 2 or more consecutive unders. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 17-45 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. for bettors on the blind.

Play on New England to cover 

Georgia State pulled off the upset last week vs UL Monroe as 8 point home dogs, but nothing before that game suggested that this side has the cannolis to hang with an explosive Troy State team this week, as is indicated by having gone  0-3 SUATS while  their defence was gutted for  34, 59 and 41 points respectively.  With that said, I now expect a reversion to the norm for Georgia State against a behemoth opponent that will be wide awake coming into this tilt. 

TROY is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons winning by more than 19.7 ppg. 

Play on Troy to cover 

Former Texas Tech gun slinger Mohomes has KC playing all out Wild West run and shoot football. But what is a little concerning is KCs defence, which is allowing an average of 30.7 ppg.on 474 mpg for the leagues worst D. Im betting on Denvers 10th ranked offence doing some damage here today, and possibly puling off the upset. 

Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against opposition coming off  three straight wins like KC. Night Football teams who are 3-0   as favorites of -7 points or less are 1-5 ATS  L/6 overall. 

NFL- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Denver Broncos to cover 

The Ravens and the Steelers are two teams with explosive offences, as is evident by Baltimores 32.3  ppg and Pittsburghs 29.3 ppg. Both also play a quick pace and are ranked number 1 and 2  in  pace. Both teams showcase top tier QBs Flacco and Rothlisberger and both are averaging over 290 passing yards per game, and we should get a big time aerial display here this Sunday night, as both secondaries look weaker than expected. This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair.

Note:The two most recent meetings in this series in Pittsburgh has seen 58 and 77 points go on the board. 

Week 4 games since 2012 when the Total is 49 points or more have gone over 7 straight times.

BALTIMORE is 8-0 OVER  after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 54.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - a very good team ( 7 PPG ormolu differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 35-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play OVER 

Play OVER 

Despite of the Steelers notching their first win of the season last time out  this past Monday, their were still some issues that stood out. The Steelers took a big lead vs TB in that Monday night game but did not score in the 2nd half, and still allowed 27 points as they now rank 29thin in the league in defence. With the Ravens averaging  32.3 points per game the Steelers will once again be tested and probably trampled on by a revenge minded Ravens group that lost 39-38 in last years blockbuster battle covering as 5 point dogs. I know the Ravens choked against Cincinnati last time out, but they will be wide awake for this tilt and ready to rock'n'roll. 

Another key difference maker in what will be a physical game  will come with discipline something,  Pittsburgh has struggled with this season as they have been penalized for an average of 120 yards per game,  which is easily the worst in the league.

The Ravens are  5-0 ATS as division dogs of more than 3 points. and  the Steelers are 1-7 ATS home after a Monday-nighter when taking on .500 or greater opponents. Also NFL Sunday night home chalk in division games against opposition coming off a victory, are just  8-18-2 SU and 5-22-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition .Home faves up to +7 are in a 1-14 ATS L/15 in Week 4 coming off their first victory of the season.

Play on the Ravens to cover 

When I saw that the Cardinals were being made underdogs at home , I understood why, but to a down trending team like Seattle, this underdog line favouring the home team becomes a value based option. I know Arizona has struggled to score, and has been shutout once this season, and only scored 14 ppg in their other two, but their offence despite of being conservative in nature shows some promise going forward. behind a true gun slinger in for UCLA star QB Josh Rosen who is expected to start this week. The pieces are being built for him to take off, despite of the cement shackles the coordinators are putting on him. With that said, I expect the Cards to make life tough on the Seahawks like they did on the Bears last week, and get us a cover. Note:1-2 chalk in Game Three off a victory are just 12-32 ATS and sides like Arizona  that have scored no more than 16 combined points in their past two games  are 76-31-1 ATS in the follow up. Yes, I know the Seahawks D, looked good last week in a win, but it also must be noted that the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS  L/7  after a home game where they allowed less than 14 points.

ARIZONA is 23-9 ATS in home games off a home loss.Carroll is 2-12 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

The Dolphins enter this game at 3-0 and are being made underdogs to the 1-2 New England Patriots. The lines makers are obviously not buying into their current record , and still feel the the Pats are most probably ready to take out their frustrations this week vs a team that is very over rated and also a little lucky to be undefeated so far. Considering the Bill Belichick and company are also in a revenge mode for a 27-20 loss at Miami in December of last year this line looks cheaper by the minute. It must be noted that the Pats are  11-1 ATSat home when playing with single-revenge. New England future hall of fame QB Tom Brady is also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming of consecutive losses in division games.

New England is 11-0 ATS L/11 when hosting a team that is off three consecutive wins.NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the New England Pats to cover 

After being sky high for their game against New England which they won, the Jags followed that up with a emotional letdown performance last week vs the Titans and lost 9-6 in the ugliest way.  But now after that down effort I expect the Jags will be ready toilet it all hang out this week offensively. Note. Jaguars are 7-0 OU  L/7 at home coming off a home game where they scored less than 14 points. Meanwhile, the Jets , were corralled by Cleveland staunch defence last week, scoring just 17 points, and top tier secondary and were half to just 161 passing yards. The Jets in the recent past have however gone over   8 strong times   when going on the road off a game as a road dog where they threw for less than 200 yards.  I look for Jacksonville to do some damage here and for the Jets to have to open up in order to keep up which will result in what I'm betting will be a high scoring affair. 

JACKSONVILLE in their L/12 in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992 have seen a  average combined score coming in at 49.1 ppg.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. are 39-15 OVER L/35 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 114-66 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Injury update that should help this score jump over the number.RB] 09/26/2018 - Leonard Fournette is upgraded to probable Sunday vs NY Jets ( Hamstring )

Play on the OVER  

Oregon is in a huge letdown situation after blowing a big lead vs Stanford last week and losing 38-31. This program despite of the accolades it is getting this season, by the pundits still is a long way off from a national contender, and might even be over rated here in the PAC12. Now still feeling the effects of last weeks horrifying loss will now play with these kids heads and Im betting they won't perform optimally against a tough and physical California D. Note: The Duckies are  0-13-1 ATS  away in Conference action when not taking more than 4 points, which is the case here tonight  vs a revenge minded Bears team that got beaten up in Eugene last season.Cal is   5-0-1 ATS at home under head coach Justin Wilcox.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 1-8 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.HC Cristobal is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached.

Play on California to cover 

USC are 0-12-1 UNDER  on the road when they scored at least 28 points last game. Which happened in a shootout with Washington State 39-36. This is not the kind of football, HC Helton wants this team to play, and Im betting a more conservative type of game will be implemented here on the road. It must be note USC have scored an average of 8.5 ppg in their two road games. 

Arizonas HC Sumlin is 8-0 UNDER L/8 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992 which happened in a 35-14 win vs Oregon State last time out. The average combined score of these tilts rings in at 41.4 ppg. 

These teams have gone under in 8 of their L/11 meetings. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (USC) - off a home win against a conference rival, in the first half of the season 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Rockets in their previous two games  vs Fresno State scored 52 and 54 points on the Bulldogs and are currently showing more explosive firepower by already putting 60+ points on the board on two occasions this season. Fresno State has a fine team, but if they want to take out Toledo here this week they are going to have to score in bunches to get the job done. With that said, Im betting on this tilt going over the Total. 

Play OVER 

 Washington has looked good this season, in wins against Auburn, Utah and Arizona State, but their doing it by averaging just  21 points per game. Here against a very physical and gruelling BYU defence allowing just 17 ppg, the sled dogs are not going to just cruise to an easy victory in my humble opinion. BYU proved their metal already this season when they went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers as DDdogs, and almost did the same to a solid looking California Bears team losing 21-18 and also beating Arizona as 11.5  point away pups. Look for the Mormons  QB Tanner Mangum to do just enough to put up enough points to get us a cover in what should be a very hard fought tilt. 

WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS ( after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS  as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.BYU is 24-10 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 47-17 L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on BYU to cover 

Play on BYU to cover 

The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are averaging 55.5 points per game. The Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) are also showing offensive explosiveness as is evident by scoring an average  54.5 per game  . However, I like the defensive physicality of the Nittany lions a lot more and in a game like this  and feel  their stopping abilities Gove them   the edge here on their own field. 

HC James Franklin  when coming off consecutive wins, is 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS with Penn State behind QB Trace McSorley – with the only non cover coming against  Ohio State in a 39-38 heart breaker last season. the game they played before that was decided by a FG, which could easily be the difference maker here tonight. With that said lets take the points.

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season.PENN ST is 15-1 ATS  off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Franklin is 9-0 ATS  off a road win as the coach of PENN ST. 

 ST is 1-9 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games since 1992

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Wyoming has a huge problem moving the chains, as was evident by barely getting by lower tier Wofford last week with a 17-14 victory and the won't do much damage here this week vs Boise State defence with a chip on their shoulders after getting smacked around by Oklahoma State last time out. Now with an extra week of rest this talented and redemption minded Broncos team should be ready to put the proverbial pedal to the metal and control the line of scrimmage from start to a finish in what Im betting will be one sided action. While I don't adhere to laying this much lumber with a road side on a consistent basis, there are certain situations such as this one that warrant me doing so. Lay the points with this under appreciated group of 5 favourite.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Play on Boise State to cover 

Washington State and air orientated attack is going to have their hands full with a strong Utes,  defence anchored by Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson in the secondary  . Utah’s linebackers and safeties, are a also  top tier group should make life miserable for a young group that just got out scored 39-35 by USC last week and could easily be in an emotional letdown scenario . Utes will also be well rested and very ready thanks to their Week Four bye.  Add to that payback for loss suffered last season at home , and I expect this very physical group of Utes to lay down some hurt this week on their way to a victory.

UTAH is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.

CFB road team vs. the money line (UTAH) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 41-9. SU L27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Utes to cover 

 Wakes offence has looked explosive this season, but their defence remains and issue and Rice should be able to do some damage here today in what could be an easy over situation. Wake Forest has gone over in 10 straight by an average of 18 ppg coming off a home game that went over the total by double digits.

OVER 

My projections make this a low scoring game. 

CONNECTICUT is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season with an average combined score of 44.1 ppg scored. Cincinnati HC Fickell in his L/12 off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992 has seen a combined average score of 41.8 ppg scored. ( Cincinnati went over and allowed 30 points last time out, in a hard-fought come from behind victory.  This dedicated defensive minded Bearcats team will be ready to make amends here this week, in a more muted conservative effort)

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CONNECTICUT) - poor team - outgained by their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 38-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

The Cincinnati Bearcats used up a lot of energy last week in a come from behind win vs Ohio. The Bearcats were down 21-0 before mounting that ferocious  comeback and will now be in a little tired after putting out that much effort in a 34-30 win as 7 point chalk. It must  noted that Cincinnati is 0-13-1 ATS  last 16 seasons  off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 28 points. I know UConn looks bad this season, but anything is possible in College football as has been evident in some massive upsets the last few weeks. With that said, take the points with the home side that actually sets up well in most of my projections.

Play on UConn to cover 

The Warhawks are coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Texas A&M and Troy and now many pundits  probably  are looking at this as easy win and an opportunity to get back on track vs a struggling Georgia State program.  But not so fast UL Monroe, fans. Georgia State despite of losing 3 straight are a side that matches up well agains the Warhawks on my head to head matchup charts  and in power rankings analysis . These kids on UL Monroe were jacked up to play two strong schools last couple of weeks and despite of wanting a win here to get back on track could find themselves bruised and battered and in a bit of a letdown situation. 

GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia State to cover 

 Texas Techs offence is hitting on all cylinders scoring 181 points in their L/3  three games. all wins. West Virginia can score in bunches at well, but after beating Texas Tech last season, I expect the revenge minded Red Raiders have the edge here at home.

W VIRGINIA is 7-20 ATS L/27  in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.TEXAS TECH is 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Nick Saban has a tendency to use games like this  to get his banged up players healthy and to have a look at some of his younger top tier recruits. This is like a bye week for this powerful Alabama team, and Im betting they just coast to victory this week in merciful fashion. 

Saban L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA have seen Alabama score an average of 34.7 ppg, while the opposition has averaged 9.3 ppg, the average margin of victory coming by 25.4 ppg.Saban  L/24  in home games in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ALABAMA have been his team offences put an average of just 34.6 ppg on the board and win by an average of 25.7 ppg. 

UL Lafayette to cover 

 Buffalo only ranks 61st in rushing defense despite of going against some lousy running teams this season. Army controlled their last game against a potent Oklahoma team losing in OT. I know some might think they will be a letdown situation, but this is a tough West Point minded group that won't lie down no matter what. Im betting they deal well with another tough test this week vs another explosive offense. Look for Army to do what it does best behind the option as they control the tempo of this game. This will be frustrating for Buffalo and their NFL bound QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson. Each of the 3 most meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less and another one is a high probability out come. The last two were decided by 4 and 3 points.

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.

Play on Army to cover

Colorado is 3-0 on the season, while UCLA is 0-3 , and the stats and numbers also favour  Colorado. However, my power rankings and head to head  defensive vs offensive matchup algorithms suggest we have value with the underdog that has had two weeks to prepare for their opponents . Chip Kelley and company are desperate to salvage this season, and will leave everything on the filed this Friday night in what Im betting will be a Bruins cover.

Note: Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 at home.

 UCLA is 12-2 ATS  L/14 after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games .

Play on UCLA Bruins to cover 

Willie Fritz has assembled a tough bunch here in Tulane and its one of this programs betters group of  talent, behind what is a never say die defence that actually stood tall against Ohio State vaunted offence last week. Ya they were smashed , but man did they look determined. Their no pushovers, and Im so impressed by them that Im willing to recommend we take the points here vs visits Memphis. Note: HC Fritz has won 17 of 25 home games and is 6-1 ATS as home pup of 5 points or more. 

TULANE is 6-0 ATS  in home games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons

MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS L/20 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened last week in a 52- 35 victory vs South Alabama.

CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MEMPHIS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 14-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The North Carolina Tar Heels will meet the Miami Hurricanes in nationally-televised college football action on Thursday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Canes are almost a 3 TD fav, which is out of whack compared to where true line value sits at about 17 points. Thus taking points here tonight is an easy decision. 

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 13-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover 

Pittsburgh at 0-2 does not currently look like a power house team thanks in part to a defence that  looks highly inconsistent.What Im trying to say is that the Steelers look to be a weaker pick than many might anticipate here this Monday night. I'm betting on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (back to back 400 yard games) and a talented collection of playmakers that include DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to do some damage here tonight on their way to a cover. QUOTE:"I respect what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm surprised," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Tampa Bay's emergence with wins against the New Orleans Saints and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. END QUOTE:

Tomlin is 6-16 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS as Monday Night home dogs when coming off non-divisional tilt. 

It  must also be noted that TB should not be underestimated here no matter how desperate the Steelers are as NFL teams like Tampa Bay  coming off consecutive straight up underdog wins, are 12-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS as dogs.

Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Thanks  the Cards being shutout last week, and scoring only 6 points in their opener this game has been listed at the ridiculously low asking price of 38 on the total. I know the Cards offence has looked anemic, but they desperately need to get things going and Im betting they take some more chances and open things up a bit, which Im betting will get them a few more points the lineskaers might expect. Meanwhile, Chicago behind an improved offence should be ready to jell behind QB Trubinsky in do some damage of their own. Note:  hey allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. NFL Game 3 teams who scored 14 points or less in each of their first two games have gone OVER 10 straight times, over the last 3 seasons.  Everything points to a higher scoring game than many might expect.

The Cards have gone over 13 straight times on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. Last season using their perimeters it must be noted that  the Cards scored 38 and 27 points on the two occasions this was in play. Meanwhile,Chicago is 18-0 OVER  as a favorite on a natural surface  off a victory when they are going against  a team that is averaging less than 5.3 yards per play and has allowed at least 1.5 sacks per game. 

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first month of the season are78-42 OVER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings with a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER  

Seattle has been down graded on my power rankings to lows not seen in years. Wow how the mighty have fallen. From a charts perspective Im betting the Cowboys have the edge , yes even here on the road , and most sharps I know agree with my assessments and you will see this via  line movement as well. 

DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, in the first month of the season are 18-44 SU L/35 seasons. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 63-105 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 

The Rams were dominant last week in a 34-0 win vs Arizona, and have won their first two games convincingly and enter this game against cross town rivals the San Diego Chargers with a full head of steam that will be hard to stop. Note: Teams like the Rams that allowed no more than six first downs last game like the Rams did are 45-16-2  ATS including 9-1 ATS L/10.Since moving to LA, the Rams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points under head coach Sean McVay and get the nod to add positive numbers into those columns here today.

Chargers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 27-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

KC has put up some big offensive numbers so far this season, well above what their season average will be going forward in my humble opinion. Their anomaly output on offence and horrendous defensive performance have now tainted this Total. In two games they have scored 80 points and allowed 65. They scored against perceived good teams, and took a lot of blows, but everything eventually reverts back to the mean, and todays opponent does not set up to end looking for shootout especially on the road. SF despite of having a quality QB at the helm of their offence just does not inspire me to be an explosive offensive team and their defence is capable as well. With that said, his total is beatable on the under. 

The Chiefs were listed as 4.5  dogs last week vs Pittsburgh  but have gone under 11 straight times  when the line is at least five points lower than in their last game, and  have not eclipsed the Total in 14 tries at home coming off a game where they covered.The Chiefs are 0-12-1 OU   since 1996  as a favorite coming off a road win that went over the total by at least 14 points .

KANSAS CITY is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. HC Reid is 11-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached in his career with a total combined average 30 ppg going on the board.

NFL Any team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 6 or less points against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were score are 22-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL games with a Total of  56 or more pts have gone under 5 of the L/6 times in Week 15 or less.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars put 31 points up against a solid New England defence last week, and are now running into this tilt vs Tennessee with a boatload full of confidence and feeling ready to dominate opponents with some swagger. Both teams have some injuries on offence with RB Fourette less than 100% and  Titans QB Mariota also nursing a nagging injury. But both should play and even if they do not I'm expecting their replacements to help facilitate a fairly high scoring affair as compared to what the lines makers expect as per my power rankings output estimates suggest. The L/5 meetings in this series have all been listed with fairly low opening totals attached to them, but those meetings combined for an average combined scoring output of 54.4 ppg . It must be noted that Week Three undefeated  home chalk of  3 pts or more are 17-4 OVER L/21 and 6-0 L/6 overall. : All game 2 NFL games with a Total of less than 41 points 32-9-1 OVER L/12 seasons.

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 32-9 OVER L/10seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Miami has started  2-0 but I can't say its been very impressive. Meanwhile the Raiders despite of being 0-2 have played better in my opinion. They did not look put of place vs a powerful looking Rams team in week 1 and  than lost a heart breaker last week to Denver after blowing a 19-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. This is a good spot for the Raiders to cover and be competitive vs a Fins team that are 2-9-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite.

Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.Raiders are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raiders are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3.

OAKLAND is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.MIAMI is 6-20 ATS  off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Road teams (OAKLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses are 39-15 ATS L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 

Let me start by saying that NFL away teams, coming off a tie in their previous game, are 0-13 SU  L/13 times. dating back to 1988. So history does not favour the Green Bay Packers here this week in Washington. With  Green Bays super star Aaron Rodgers knee banged up and less than 100% the Packers look like weak favs in this spot.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times last week, and Im not sold on his ability to play favouring his knee which will inhibit his mobility. Also the Packers a a whole, are in a emotional  letdown situation after controlling their last game for 3 quarters before falling apart and settling for a lucky OT tie. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to be ready to pressure Rodgers this Sunday . Note: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes the key to controlling Rodgers is to bring pressure.QUOTE"

"The most important thing is that you've got to make him uncomfortable in the pocket," Gruden said. "If you give him time to move around and buy time, and find a second, third option, or fifth or sixth option because he's scrambling around, he's going to dice you up.

"The team's that have had success, which aren't very many, they pressure him, and that's the key." END QUOTE:

NFL Favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-39 ATS in the followup dating back 35 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Washington to cover 

Army controlled time of possession last week , in their usual methodical way, via their ground attack and delivered Hawaii their first defeat of the season,(27-21) dropping them to 3-1 . The bad news is Hawaii is 0-16-1 ATS L/17 at home coming off a game where they had less than 26 minutes time of possession. Im betting all the early season travelling and the intensity and physicality of that last tilt will have the Rainbow Warriors a little tired this week,  and less than motivated as they face a lower tier team.With that said, look for the margin of victory by the Warriors to be less than expected by the lines makers.

Note: Prior to this season, the Duquesnes last game against an FBS team was in 2014, when they were very competitive facing the  Buffalo  Bulls of the MAC losing 38-28.  Duquesne has converted 53.2% of its third-down opportunities, this season ranking fifth in the FCS in that category. Hawaii has allowed 50% conversion on  third downs , with only six other teams  in the nation more futile defensively stopping this key down.  

Play on Duquesne  to cover 

The Dukes behind  transfer quarterback from Florida Atlantic  Daniel Parr enter this game against Hawaii having scored an average of 33 points in their last three games , all of which were victories. Last season they averaged 32.3 ppg , so this is not an anomaly. Meanwhile, Hawaii plays a one way game, that features an explosive offence and a defence that is pourous to say the least. I expect Hawaii to pile up points here vs a lower tier team, but for Duquesne to fire right back in a tilt that promises to be high scoring and very entertaining. 

Play OVER 

The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies  have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit  home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week.

The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies.

 WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games .

CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs  pulled off  the upset behind a backup  QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by  a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that  Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and  are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents.  

E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

A lot of top tier defensive numbers might sway a weekend warrior to bet this tilt under. But Im betting these two capable attacks will knock down each others top tier stopping numbers this week and leave them temporarily shattered. I know both teams have quality defences or so it seems thus far, but they will be tested by the likes of RB Bryce Love of Stanford and  QB Justin Herbert for Oregon . Stanford hung 49 points on the Ducks last season and are capable of a big output again, and the Ducks now with added fire power should be up to the task of doing some scoring of their own.

STANFORD in their L/6 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 65.5 ppg scored.

OREGON in their L/10 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 68.1 ppg scored. 

Oregon is 11-0 OVER at home coming off a game that went under the total by at least 10 points.

Play on the OVER 

Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS  L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. 

Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago.

Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points.

 OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC  Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is  ranked 107th on d in the nation and  from a betting perspective just  12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

The 2-0 Wolfpack  had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions.  Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially  for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark.  Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. 

MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs  like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win.

Play on Marshall to cover 

North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just  3-22 SU  off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect  5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory  and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect  12-0 ATS  in non-conference games since 1992.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS  L/16  in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19  as favs.  

BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech   behind  a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season.

Play on GTech to cover 

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team.  TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. 

After consecutive  blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas A&M to cover 

Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama,   and Indiana 3 in a row.  But those wins by both teams have come  vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing  head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. 

Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game.

CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Louisville to cover 

After getting beaten up on by Alabama in their first game the Cards have tightened up their D, and have allowed a total of 24 points in their last two games both wins ( 14 ppg) .That formula for success looks to remain in place this week vs a Virginia team that scored 45 points in a win vs Ohio last week. HC  Mendenhall was not completely happy with the Cavs efforts because of sloppy play and turnovers, and will have his side primed to play a more staunch brand of defensive ball in this tilt. Im betting on both these scenarios to help keep this tilt on the low side of the Total. 

VIRGINIA is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia has gone under 12 straight times  coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points which happened vs Ohio U last time out. 

Play UNDER 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game.

 The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. 

RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS  off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and  is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking,

Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are  listed  below...

Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS),  owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3  games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came  at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. 

From a matchup persepctive  ( difference maker)  Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting  will gouge  Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. 

***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. 

NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wake Forest to cover 

 Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry.  I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated.  Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover.

Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Washington State plays a one way aerial attack offensive game and nothing will change today. Washington State is ranked 3rd in the country with 421 yards passing per game. Meanwhile, USC will be prepared to air out as well , as it seems that they can't get they're running game going. Since putting 41 points on the board in game 1 of the season USC has struggled to score , and need desperately to get their offence rolling and will be primed to put points on the board here. Washington State will answer back. Im  recommending an over bet. 

WASHINGTON ST is 20-6 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992 with a combined average score of 59.3 ppg scored. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (WASHINGTON ST) - with a  defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are  43-16 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the OVER 

I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk ,  and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed  OVER each time. 

NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have  gone OVER  11 of the L/12 times  when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points.

NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the  Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. 

NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons  for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  OVER 

Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors.

TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.

TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Temple to cover 

The Jags enter this game jacked up and ready to get revenge vs the Pats for last seasons play off elimination loss. But it must be noted that the Pats are not easily intimidated as is evident by a long standing trend that has shown them to be good bets in this situation. Note:the Patriots are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3.5points of pick and their opponent is seeking revenge for a  post season defeat . You have also remember that the Pats are the healthiest they have been in a long time and Gronkowski is said to be 100% which is a dangerous situation for all comers in the NFL. QB Tom Brady also looks like he's on a mission and off a stellar performance in week 1 vs the Texans. Not a good omen for a  Jacksonville side that is 0-14 ATS when hosting a non-divisional op-ponent that is getting more than 65% of their first downs through the air.

NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  England is 11-1 SU L/12 meetings in this series.

Play on New England to cover 

The Rams did not look completely cohesive last week in their win vs the Oakland Raiders. I  know they won by DDs, but their was still some issues especially early on in that tilt. This week against another side that is not considered very good, Im betting the Rams struggle again, to cover this big number even though they are at home. Arizona in their game vs Washington last week looked asleep at the wheel, mostly in the first half and allowed 30 first downs losing by a 24-6 count.That was the bad news, but the good news from a historical standpoint shows us that the  Cardinals are 13-0 ATS  L/13 as a underdog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs . Also the Cards D looked to get their footing in that loss last week, allowing just 3 points in the 2nd half which will give them stopping momentum coming into this tilt. Arizona has covered 6 straight as road opening underdogs. 

NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover 

The Cards have its of new key offensive weapons that need to time to get acclimated and gain chemistry, and I expect they will play this game conservatively behind a strong D, that despite of giving up 26 totals points in a loss last week allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half. I expect their D to once again stand tall vs the explosive Rams here today, while their own offense does a lot of field goal damage but very limited TD production. This Im betting will see this contest stay on the low side of the number. This series has gone under 6 straight times . More of the same here.

NFL Division chalk  of 11 points or more like the Rams  have gone  UNDER 8 straight times when the Total is  48 or less points. All Week Two underdogs who scored 10 pts roles  as hosts In their first game are 9-1 UNDER dating back 5 seasons. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Alex Smith is type of QB that plays a short conservative style of football, and is well complemented by a quality consistent running game. The Skins coaching staff have implemented this type of game plan into their schemes as was evident in the Arizona win last week by a 24-6 count. Nothing changes this week vs Indianapolis.Smiths teams are  have not gone above the Total in 10 straight tilts when coming off a victory where the QB threw for at least two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, the skins also shined, allowing just 145 passing yards and  213 total yards.The Redskins have gone under 11 straight times  as a favorite after a game where they allowed less than 200 yards through the air.  Im betting the Redksins succeed in slowing this game down to a crawl vs Colts side that has seen their L/7 as dogs stay under the total. 

Play UNDER

Tennessee was smashed  in a 57-14 blowout loss to DeSaun Watson and the Texans last season.Im betting the Titans will have had this game circled for a long time now and be out looking for revenge and very primed for payback. Titans QB Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins last week but appeared on track to start against Houston after practicing fully on Wednesday , and will be ready to lead his team. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and Im betting on the avenging home team getting what they want here and that is redemption. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 2-30 L/25 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with the Tennessee Titans to cover 

I think their has been an over reaction to New Orleans ugly outing in game 1 , when they lost in a 48-40 shootout vs Tampa Bay. Now after that PTSD type experience, I expect the Saints to be concentrated on taking care of the ball, vs a tough physical looking Cleveland defense that is very under rated. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of having some new offensive weapons in their tool box will take time to get those key pieces hitting on all cylinders, and for now will a lot quieter than some the pundits expect. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the Total.All Week Two NFL  home favorites of  8 points  or more  Totals line of 38 pts or more have gone under in 12 of the L/14 tilts dating back 8 seasons. Note: New Orleans has gone under in 9 straight games as  chalk  off a loss when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down conversion percentage less than 35.3%. 

Play UNDER