Cappers Sports Picks

Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.

Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up  squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout  losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9  I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has  completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and  has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains  running back Phillip Lindsay,

Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Play on the 49ers to cover 

Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and  are now .500 on the  season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture.  This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise,  are being out gained  -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense .  note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA. 

CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong  12-0  ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.  Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of  10-2 this season,  5 wins have come vs dregs like  Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers. 

Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured  a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The  Browns are  also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.

Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference  home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted  the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has  completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also  a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having  thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.

GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined  (67.3 ppg ) go on the board. 

Play OVER 

 The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time  out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips. 

HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.

Take the points with the TB Bucs 

Eastern Washington hosts UC Davis on Saturday with a spot in the FCS Playoffs semifinals.These two teams met less than a month ago in a game that saw Eastern emerge with a 59-20 victory. So now theirs an inclination for public bettors to look at the over here as viable wager. In my usual contrarian fashion, I think this total is bloated and that we have value wth an under wager here according to my projections even though both these teams have prolific  offensive attacks. I do expect to see a lot more from the ground game from UC Davis in this rematch as they try to slow E.Washington down. On paper it looks like a shootout, but from a strategy perspective a more muted methodical and targeted effort from both sides won't come as a surprise. 

Play UNDER 

 When Military Football Academies get together to play (Air Force, Navy, Army), points and offence are always lacking in what almost always results in a low scoring game . Its usually a war in the trenches, in what  is a take no prisoners physical confrontation. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE Im betting is on todays agenda. The UNDER is 32-8-1 for a 80% conversion rate since 2006. 

Play UNDER 

KSU has the third-longest active home winning streak in FCS at 15 games and is one of five programs with a winning streak of 10 or more games. QB Chandler Burks has started 36 consecutive games at QB and has led the Owls to a 31-5 (.861) record. He is also 17-1 as the starting QB inside Fifth Third Bank Stadium. If South Dakota State wins here today Im betting it won't come easily.

Take the points with Kennesaw State to cover 

Maine Black Bears visit Weber State on Friday night in a key FCS play off tilt. These are two tough defensive teams. Maine allows 21.6 points per game (Weber State allows 21.0). Weber's rushing attack of Josh Davis and Treshawn Garrett  are a key mode of moving the chains  but will have tough sledding; Maine allows just 74.5 ground yards per contest, second-best in the country, and 295.3 per game overall. Im expecting a very physical affair played in cold temps today, and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

Play UNDER 

Jacksonville is off a 6-0 win vs Indianapolis last time out at home. But whats obvious is that just can't move the chains regularly or put TDs on the board, averaging just 16.9 ppg on the season and with Cody Kessler under centre I doubt if things get much better vs the Titans. Also despite of the Jaguars exhibiting great D, at home this season, on the road they have  proven to have a gridiron split personality allowing 27+ ppg.  Meanwhile, the Titans are also off a win taking out the Jets 26-22 in come from behind fashion, which will have them exuding confidence here this Thursday night.  

The Jags are 1-4 ATS L/5 Thursdays when taking points.Thursday night NFL home teams have won 12 straight times. Titans are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

Note:The Jags are 0-12 SU/ATS as underdogs during the regular season when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a opposition coming off a victory.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

  Redskins enter this game have lost the stats battles in 4 straight games and enter this game with  backup  QB Colt McCoy   .  McCoy is  just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in division games in his NFL career.. 

Last week the Eagles showed their metal with a come from behind win vs the Giants , and will now use the momentum of that win to get the job done here again this Monday. 

QUOTE: "This was a big game for us," Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz said. "Obviously in terms of the division standings and all that fun stuff, but really mentally to show the resilience that we did. To get down early like we did, then to battle back, just really builds a lot of confidence -- to come from behind and get it done I think will speak volumes about our confidence going forward." END QUOTE: 

Meanwhile, Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a very dependable  7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points and gets my support here as his team plays with sense of urgency. 

Washington has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 Monday nighters. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Chargers are hot , as is evident by their 6-1 winning run and their QB Phillip Rivers is off a record setting game last time out. But now Im betting on regression to rear its ugly head, for Rivers, and the Chargers to finally meet their match. It must be noted that all but one of their wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record. The one exception was the victory over Seattle, which is barely over .500 at 6-5. 

The Steelers, own a 14-1 record against the Chargers at home and that run will continue here tonight. 


The Steelers 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS as home favs off a loss against non-division opposition coming off a home contest. Roethlisberger is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS versus .500 or greater AFC West opponents coming off a win.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

  The Minnesota Vikings enter this game ranked No. 10 in defence  and up trending as they have allowed 255 YPG and an average of  just 17 ppg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Meanwhile,  New England’s ranks No. 11 ranked defence has allowed only 17.5 PPG in their last four games overall. 

Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games in December.Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on fieldturf.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen average of 39.5 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in December games are 41-16 UNDERL/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a 2 game road trip, in December games are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Mahomes and the Chiefs have not played since taking part in a  back and forth , 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 19. Mahomes now with a week off might have take some time to get this high octane offence back working at optimal levels. Also strictly from an eye test, Oakland looks to be gaining some confidence, and QB Carr has suddenly learned to take care of the ball much better and has not given up an interception in 6 games to go along with a a high percentage completion rate on mostly short passes. The kind of football the Raiders are playing  gives them high probability to  survive  what coming their wayand Im betting thats what they find a way to do here at home this week in what I project as cover performance. 

The explosive Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games against AFC West opponents with their only loss coming last year at Oakland. Could a repeat upset happen, probably not, but taking the 15 points here is a viable investment option. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games. 

Raiders HC Gruden is 19-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover 

The Titans are off a ugly loss on Monday night football, to the Texans and now demoralized as their play off hopes start to fade. Now in an emotional letdown situation on short rest, the Titans are far from being solid  TD + favs against any team in this league including the lowly NY Jets. Note: The Titans are 1-6 ATS L/7 off a Monday nighter, and just 2-8 ATS L/10 in this series. 

TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS  in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.

NFL Home teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Miami  losers of 4 of their L/5 have looked in-cohesive and inconsistent this season, taking part in some ugly affairs and choking in others at key junctures, and  have also come out  completely flat on other occasions. Meanwhile, Buffalo is up trending after two straight wins and must be respected here as underdogs vs a Fins team that just does not look confident right now.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 4.75 or less  yards/play in the second half of the season.The Dolphins are 0-17 ATS ( L/17 as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Which happened last week at Indianapolis in a loss.

The Buffalo Bills are 15-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points against opp coming off consecutive losses, including 7-0 ATS in division tilts. 

NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are just 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Chicago's QB Mitchell Trubisky is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs NY Giants ( Shoulder )which in my opinion gives the Giants enough edge on their own field to get us the cover. as Daniels starts instead This is the Bears 2nd straight road game and its never easy winning two straight games on the road in this league, even for a teams deemed hot like the Bears. Previous to last week the Giants had won two straight and than had the Eagles on the ropes  as they took a 19-3 lead. Then instead of using emerging super star RB Saquon Barkely to slow the game down, the Gemn did the opposite . hmmm and blew the game .  Anyway,  now Im betting the Gmen bounce back, behind the arm of a QB that in Eli Manning that has a history of top tier efforts at home late in the season, as is evident by a  12-3-1 ATS record in December at home when coming off a loss and 7-0 ATS against opponent like Chicago coming off consecutive wins. Look for his side kick Sqauon Barkley to help keep the option wide open for Manning in what could be a SU upset for the home dog, but more importantly a cover . 

CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

Jacksonville despite of their 7 game losing streak, are still a team that must be respected, behind what must be considered a solid defence allowing an average of just 16.2 ppg on the season as hosts. They have lost their L/3 games by 4 points or less, and getting points is a viable option , vs a Indianapolis team that despite of a current 5 game win streak has lost 3 of their 5 road games this season. Look for Jags QB Kody Kessler who is starting in place of Bortles, to give his team a spark and a cover. 

Marrone is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of JACKSONVILLE and s 6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Thanks to Ohio State absolute obliteration of Michigan last week, 62-39, we have a nice value line to bet into backing Northwestern. When a team like Ohio State exerts that much emotional and irrational exuberance in one game, an emotional letdown scenario usually follows them into the next game. We all know that Ohio State has consistently played down to opponents this season, and that despite of their defence playing well last week, have showed themselves over and over again to be porous to say the least. Urban Meyers has failed to cover 5 straight as a DD conference favorite, while the Wildcats HC Pat Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS L/9 as a DD dog and overall 7-1 ATS in conference action this season. 

NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 21-8 ATS  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog this season. 

HIO ST is 2-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 season.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-17 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team ( 80%or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80% are 26-61 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

The dog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven Big Ten title games and Im betting the pup or cat if you wish grabs the cash again.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

These teams have played some low scoring games of late with the last meeting in early November seeing Boise State win a 24-17 squeaker . But now in contrarian fashion Im betting we see a significant uptick in point production this time around behind  teams  that boasted top-25 scoring offenses this season. In the last game scoring chances  effected the total score as the  Bulldogs' last two drives ended with a blocked field goals and a fourth-down incompletion after they reached the Boise State 23-yard line with 1:18 remaining.

Fresno State senior Marcus McMaryion has completed 258-of-366 passes for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he is ranked No. 7 in passing efficiency. Boise Senior Rypien has completed 286-of-416 passes for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he is ranked No. 11 in the FBS in passing efficiency. He set Mountain West career records for passing yards completions in the earlier victory over Fresno State, and he had his league-record 21st 300-yard passing with 310 against Utah State. Look for these two guys to shine here today, and for a  much different type of game than the public are anticipating. 

Boise State in their L/63 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992 have seen a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored and in their L/59  tilts  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game have seen a combined average of 64.3 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Boise State won the last time these teams met  24-17 right here on the Blue Carpet back in mid November, thanks to  dominating that game in the final quarter . Im betting they use the momentum of their last meeting to keep on trucking here, and once again come out of this for their 11th straight victory at home in this series. With the said,Im betting  on Boise State capturing the MWC title  and more importantly getting the all important cover as short chalk .

HC Harsin is 7-0 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached . 

Play on Boise State to cover 

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 

This  is a rematch of last year’s National Championship game and its being  played on the same field . I felt Alabama was fortunate to get the win last season, and just got by the skin of their teeth in OT by 3 points thanks the heroics of Tide QB Tua Tagovailola. Now the Dawgs who are 6-1 ATS L/7 with SEC revenge and have cashed 6 straight times as underdogs in this series are the team I recommend backing as Georgia according to my rankings actually matchup well vs a side, that has yet to be tested this season. REVENGE , REVENGE. Georgia covers.

GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Georgia to cover 

California  has been outgunned in 4 straight games  and was pounded by Colorado last week, and somehow still found a way to win. The Golden Bears  biggest problem is that just can't score, and   have  failed to gain 300 yards overall in four straight games.  Today however, Im betting their luck  will run out against a team that is much better than their record might indicate. Bottom line here is you have to score to beat Stanford,  and Cals  passing game is  less than viable, and the running game is putrid in trouble against strong Cardinal defensive front .The Bad News Bears are not going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Stanford has won 9 straight meetings in this series and the L/4 here at Cal dating back to the 2010.

Last week, Stanford beat UCLA 49-42 , but that a good omen as STANFORD is 20-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored and HC Shaw is 7-0 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

Play on Stanford to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahomas body of work this season  despite of star QB  QB Kyler Murrays heroics have  not impressed me, with their only really top tier outing coming vs West Virginia. The Sooners are erratic to say the least as their defence has allowed 46, 47, 40 and 56  points in the last four games and the word champion if they win today must be used loosely. I know Texas may not inspire bettors either as they have been extremely inconsistent. but they did win this seasons Red River clash 48-45 handing the Sooners they're only loss, and have now covered 6 straight in this series. 

Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a underdog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game this season and is 2-10 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

 CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 12-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 14-41  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Marshalls D, has been stingy this season allowing an average of 20.3 ppg, while VTech has had problems consistently putting points on the board as is evident by scoring 23 or less points in 5 of their L/7 games overall. This game has some significance for the Hokies as they need it to have change for a Bowl invite, while Marshall has a Bowl invite all ready in their back pocket, and are just playing spoilers here today. Look for these two Virginia/West Virginia rivals. to g head to head in a hard fought lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 26-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored.

Virginia Tech has gone under11 straight times when com-ing off a win where they threw for less than 200 yards with no score in the subset going over the 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

The  Washington Huskies upset Washington State last week in a 28-15 emotional filled event that will have them in a letdown scenario this week. It will be hard for them to get up to the same energy levels as last week, vs a tough physical Utah team that can make life miserable for them in the trenches   I know Washington beat the Utes back in September but since than Utah is 7-1 SU and  are 4-1 ATS as underdogs with conference revenge and 5-1 ATS when getting 6 points or less. Washington before last weeks  Apple Cup victory were on a 6 game ATS losing streak and looked far from being championship calibre team. Note    Utah is 15-0 SU in games not played on the weekend  and 5-0 SUATS the last five overall .

UTAH is 19-6 ATS L/25 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more). WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, M

The Bulls (10-2, 7-1 MAC) won the MAC East Division title Friday with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green, and face Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-2) for the MAC championship. My own projections make this opening total just to low.We all know N.Illinois is a defence first team, but to beat Buffalo they are going to have to score. With that said, Im on the over here out of the gate.

I have Buffalo scoring 27+ points and N.Illinois scoring 24+ points. BUFFALO in 12  road games when they score 22 to 28 have seen a combined average of 56.7 ppg go on the board. 

N.Illinois in their L/33 November games have seen a combined average score of 59.5 ppg go on the board. 

 Play on the OVER 

 Texas enters this tilt vs Tennessee  having won 7 straight games following a 0-3 start.   The wins were not that impressive overall and most were against average to sub par average teams with a total combined record of 22-20 record  and they  won 4  of those games by 3 points or less .

Tonight Im betting Tennessee’s 9th ranked defense to go  Helmut to helmet  with Houston’s strong  D and make this a hard fought tilt. With  Tennessee's QB Marcus Mariota  expected to play the Titans are a solid side option , as he  is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in division games when his team is coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. Note: NFL Road teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, in November games are good long term bets against the spread going 179-117 ATS L/35 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

 HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons. 

The Titans are also 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on Monday nights.

Take the point with Tennessee to cover 

Minnesota must go to the pass game alot as their run game ranks 31st in the league in rushing, averaging 84.7 yards per game. It must noted that GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with an average of 51.3 ppg scored. on the flip side the Vikings secondary has been struggling, which is a sign of a high scoring tilt as GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Finally GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons., with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board.


GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.7 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 44-17 OVER L/35 years. for a 72% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on OVER

 The Steelers and an emotional let down situation coming off a revengeful win vs Jacksonville last out .  With that in mind and the fact that he Steelers have  not been good bets vs AFC teams like Denver as is evident by  struggling in these confrontations  recording a  3-11 SU record  and a equally ugly  2-12 ATS mark as road favs L/39 seasons, including 0-9 ATS when favoured by more than 3 points.Meanwhile, the Broncos are up-trending  as they have taken the stats battles  in 4 of their L/5 and cashed in four of those tilts. Denver has also been cash in the bank at home as   home dog  cashing 9 of their L/10 vs above.500 sides.

Long term DENVER is 29-15 ATS L/44  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season . Denver  is 6-2 SU L/8 at home this series. 

The Steelers are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a road favorite on natural surface  off a win.

Play on Denver to cover 

These long time rivals the New England Patriots and NY Jets  go head to head this Thanks giving weekend. The early public money is as expected all over the Pats.While sharp money goes down on the Jets. I know this is contrarian action, as many expect the Pats to be primed for redemption after suffering a DD loss last time , but  Im betting if the Pats get by a desperate Jets team that has lost 4 straight, it wont come by more than this offered line. The last two meetings here in NY have both been won by the Pats, but both were decided by TD or less. Both times the Pats were 9 to 10 point chalk, and both times the public smashed their money down on them and both times they lost, and now the three and out rule is in effect. Be brave, take the Jets as they make it their mission to get back their long lost respect.  

The Jets have historically been a good bet off a home defeat and than following up as the host team. NY JETS are 21-6 ATS  in home games off a home loss since 1992.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Both these teams have trouble scoring, and both have top tier defences ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league. To back a road favorite in my opinion, that team must have the ability to get the ball into the end zone consistently , something the Jags are not doing. I know Buffalo does not inspire bettors, but after scoring 41 points last time out before their bye and now on fresh legs the Bills are a better bet than most might care to believe. Especially taking on an emotionally drained side, that was off a must win situation  last week vs the Steelers and then blew it, by not showing up in the 2nd half after a 16-0 lead . Its interesting to note that the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a favorite off a game as a dog are 0-6 ATS  off a game as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which was the case last week in a hurtful 20-16 loss to the Steelers after taking a a DD lead. 

Play on Buffalo Bills to cover 

The 49ers are fresh and off a bye week, and before the break they loss a close one to the Giants 27-23 on Monday Night even though they out gained them by 374 to 277 yards. The Niners according to my power rankings also despite of a negative record are up trending, and are viable underdogs here vs a Tampa Bay team, that despite of moving the chains with regularity , are just 1-7 in their L/8 games with a 2-27 negative turnover ratio . The Bucs own an atrocious D, and can't hold onto the ball, and are fade material this Sunday.

TAMPA BAY is 1-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.


NFL road dogs playing on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent are 10-0 ATS off their bye week, covering by an average of 10.15 ppg and SF fits the bill this Sunday. 
he Fortyniners are 7-0 ATS L/7 after a home game in which a player had at least 6 receptions.
The Fortyniners are 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road dog facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS L/ 7 at home of a loss. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

Giants rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big day vs  the Eagles with 130 yards on the ground and 99 yards receiving in the first meeting this season, and I now expect the GMen to go back to what worked in the first time these teams met and go to the ground attack constantly here today which will eat time on the clock. Yes, last week Eli Manning had a big day, but he is one of footballs most inconsistent QBs, and don't be surprised if struggles this week, and leans on Barkley to get take the workload as the game progresses.  I know the Eagles secondary is banged up, but many think some of the young gun CBs waiting on the sidelines must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia , has had enormous problems scoring this season, averaging just 20.5 ppg, and after last weeks defensive catastrophe vs the Saints will also be primed to play better D. The above combinations Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

The Giants  have gone under 24 straight times with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a field goal or more with the combined average score clicking in at 29.8 ppg with no combined score eclipsing the 45 point plateau. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 14 or more points are 25-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

BYU (6-5) knocked off a ranked opponent on the road earlier this season and is more than capable of turning the trick again as they have the added incentive of needing to  notch back-to-back wins to get bowl eligible. I know Utah is a top tier team, but when these programs have met in the past records  and stats go out the window, as 17 out of the last 20 games in the Holy War have been decided by seven points or less.BYU is  also 21-3-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, including 14-1 ATS against opposition with at least one loss on the season like Utah. With No. 17 ranked Utah looking ahead to next weeks PAC 12 championship game, expect the unexpected. Take the points. 

BYU is 6-0 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

BYU to cover 

Notre Dame deserves to be in the top 6 teams in the country, and despite of USC having an off year, they are still extremely talented with a deep recruiting class. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of this season this Saturday for the Irish to may not be so lucky. It must also be noted that the Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home pups  with a below .500 record and the visitor in this series i 0-5 ATS L/5 meetings and USC is 8-3 ATS when hosting this series.

NOTRE DAME is 0-9 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-25 ATS since 1992 for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on USC to cover 

 The Governor's Cup matchup at Louisville's Cardinal Stadium between the Cardinal and Wildcats is best summef up by the following quotes: 

"In a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window," Stoops said. "We're worried about ourselves and playing the best football we can and just finishing.

"I think anytime you play a rival, the guys on the other side are going to play harder," said Louisville interim coach Lorenzo Ward, whose Cardinals (2-9) haven't won since a 20-17 decision over Western Kentucky back on Sept. 15. "It's about pride, so you can throw the records out. Regardless of how a season's gone, it's still the same as if we were undefeated."

Key Trend:KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons

Take the points with Louisville to cover 

New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-41 in their first meeting this season and matchup well against them. Meanwhile, Liberty D, is currently a shambles, has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg on the season.

Liberty HC Gill is 1-9 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 54-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Rice at 1-11 might not inspire bettors but Old Dominion despite of some upsets this season have for majority of the time played down to their opponents, and are never a safe bets as a favorite especially on the road. 

RICE is 22-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. RICE is 25-10 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

RICE is 44-25 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.RICE is 31-16 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.Wilder is 7-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of OLD DOMINION.

CFB team (RICE) - after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 59-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Rice to cover 

Michigan is a team on a mission this season, but their going into a place that will be extremely unwelcoming, against a side that has won 6 straight and 13 of their L/14 games playing with a chip on their shoulders as they have been shredded for being pretenders because of  what many are saying is a weak defence.  Today in contrarian fashion I expect the Buckeyes D, will stand tall, and for super star QB Dwayn Haskins and company to make Michigan amazing D, to look human.

Ohio State are  7-1 ATS L/8 as home dogs versus .900 or better opposition , and a perfect 8-0 100%  ATS as home dogs of +2.5 or more points. Ohio State under HC Urban Meyer is  is 102-10 SU at home on his career, with only four losses by more than 4 points.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ohio State Buckeyes to cover 

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Baylor's offense has   failed to score 20 points in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, HC Kingsbury  of Texas Tech said he wasn't sure if McLane Carter (high-ankle sprain), Jett Duffey (knee) or Bowman (partially collapsed lung) would be available, and with the QB situation the way it is I wont be surprised if the TT offence is sluggish. 

For both teams, this is their last chance to keep their season alive and earn bowl eligibility.Thus Im expecting a hard fought physical affair, that ends up on the low side of the number.

BAYLOR is 6-0 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppg. Rhule is 20-7 UNDER after playing 3 straight conference games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined 46.8 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG), after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games  are 38-15 UNDER for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Herd comes in playing its best ball of the season, winning four of their last five games while holding their three last opponents to season low in yards.  With some important  play off implications on the line here today, I expect Marshall will be primed to bump Florida International off here because if FIU wins they advance to the championship game. Add to that they have revenge on board for a 41-30 loss at home the last time these teams met, and you have a motivated Marshall team in top form to back. 

CFB Road favorites (MARSHALL) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 58-21 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

 Marshall to cover 

When this season started the pundits expected Washington to be  one of the best teams in the nation. They are still a fine team, but have subsequently lost their lustre with losses to Utah, California, and Oregon. ( The 3 losses came by 4, 3, 2 points respectively and the games could have gone either way)  But now with redemption at hand this senior group of Huskies can upset the Apple cart with a win vs a Washington State (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12)  football program playing for its first conference title in 16 years and its first trip to the College Football Playoff. A win in this tilt will also propel Washington into the PAC 12 championship game where they will have a revenge scenario vs Utah to take care of. 

  WSU HC Mike Leach has a fine team, and are a top tier group who deserve respect  .  But Washington State has not faired well in this series and are  0-4 SUATS the last four, 1-7 ATS as a favorite and 0-5 ATS at home and Im betting wont get the cheese for their betting backers.

Play on Washington Huskies  to cover 

Oklahoma  football program owns a 19-1 SU record  in their last twenty overall away games, and 17-0 SU in their last seventeen conference away games and Im betting that streak continues  when the the dust settles here tonight in this tilt vs the West Virginia Mountaineers. I know the Mounties must be respected with  future NFL draft pick Grier under centre, but Dana Holgorsons  football crew just cant seem to get over the hump and have failed miserably against to tier football programs in the recent past going just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS against .900 or better conference opp. The status quo remains in effect again, as West Virginia finds a way to lose this tilt vs a side that needs a win and to guaranteed a shot at the Big 12 Championship crown.

Holgorsen is 0-10 ATS  after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of W VIRGINIA , which has just happened. 

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

On a current 23 game win streak, UCF is feeling pressure to stay undefeated. After their huge win last week vs Cincinnati on National TV , this talented athletic group might find the attention their getting detrimental to their ability to  focus. Meanwhile,  USF their opponents a  team that despite of struggling of late is capable of making life difficult for their opponents behind a strong offence that has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. UCF won last season in a 47-42 shoot out vs Charlie Strong's group, but South Florida won the previous 3 meetings and are 7-2 SU L/9 in this series, and get the nod tonight. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCF) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%) or better  playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 18-48 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the South Florida Bulls to cover 

Virginia and Virginia Tech prepare to do battle in a game I have pegged to be closely contested. I know VTech has lost 4 straight, but Virginia is struggling a little bit as well, as the Cavs have lost 2 of their L/3  . Virginia is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in November and 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games and are not as strong a side as some pundits might think. Vtech has won 10 of the L/14 meetings in this series when hosting  and Im betting if the Hokies lose today it wont be by more than the point spread. 

VTech has won 14 straight meetings in this series.

 CFB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on VTech to cover 

The Bulls took their first conference road loss of the season last time out in Ohio in. a surprising 52-17 loss. Now at 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Buffalo will play at Bowling Green this week with a chance to clinch to MAC East Division title. With redemption on their plate for their ugly loss to Ohio and with the MAC East title on the line Im betting on a huge effort from the Bulls versus a  out gunned Bowling Green side.

BOWLING GREEN is 1-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 15 ppg. 

CFBhome team (BOWLING GREEN) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CFBRoad favorites (BUFFALO) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, in conference games.  are 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover 

No one in this league can stop the Saints offence, and the only way your going to beat them is by keeping up offensively. Look for. less than conservative effort from the Flacons as they go all out in an attempt to keep pace here tonight.  It must be noted that NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 12-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 9-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight .  NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 OVER  after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored.Payton is 7-0 OVER after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored. Payton is 6-0 OVER in home games vs. struggling  defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average score of 66.4 ppg scored.

New Orleans is red hot averaging 39.4 ppg at home, and will put at least that on the board today in a game that might resemble the one these teams played earlier this season when the  Saints beat Atlanta 43-37 in overtime in Week 3.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (New Orleans/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams 1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games are 44-16 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Two long instate SEC rivals the Mississippi State  Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels  go head to head this Thursday night in a game  that I have pegged to be alot closer than the lines makers are estimating. This tilt is referred to as the  Egg bowl , and in Ole Miss finale this Thursday I expect they will play this like a Bowl game and leave everything on the field. Remember Ole Miss cannot play in a real Bowl game because of NCAA sanctions and penalties. Look for Rebels  super star WRS, A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf, who all could be first-round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft to go all out here in what will their final college football games of their careers. Last years game was physical and closely contested with the Rebs coming away with a 31-28 win, after blowing a big lead. With that said, I look for another war here and for the points to end up being golden. 

The Rebs are 7-3 SU  and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 home Egg Bowls

Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Underdog has cashed 5 of the L/6 meetings. MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons Miss State has failed to cover 3 of their 4 road games this season.

CFB team (OLE MISS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover 

Mississippi State erupted for 52 points against Arkansas  , marking its fourth game of 45 or more points of the year. We all know what Mississippi Rebs defence is like, while the Rebels offence is equally explosive. I know Ole Miss defence is solid and must be respected, but  Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, ranks second in the FBS with 3,831 passing yards and put points on the board against the best of teams . Tonight Im expecting a back and forth slugfest that will see the total eclipsed.

OLE MISS is 6-0 OVER against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 69.5 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 72.2 ppg scored.OLE MISS is 7-0 OVER  after game with 50 or more pass attempts since 1992 with a combined average of 69.1 ppg scoredOLE MISS is 6-0 OVER n home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

N.Illinois plays a methodical brand of football, that results in slow grinding low scoring games. 
N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. More of the same sleepy action is on board tonight vs Western Michigan. 

N ILLINOIS is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 ppg scored  . W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons and  is 10-1 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs,

CFB team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The NFL has decided to move Monday night's showdown between the 9-1 Chiefs and Rams from Mexico City to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions at Estadio Azteca, it was announced Tuesday. 

 This line moved off the opening 63 number. Since the 2000 campaign season,  NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57  or more points have gone 11-1-1 to the  OVER ... and a 8-0 100% OVER  when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . Both these teams can score in bunches and both have shown inability to be inconsistent defensively which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

The Chiefs' star  quarterback Patrick Mahomes,  leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and passing yards per game and is second in passer rating, behind only New Orleans' Drew Brees. Meanwhile, the Rams are right behind the Chiefs in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game, and third-year quarterback Jared Goff is third in the league in touchdown passes with 22 and fifth in both passing yards per game and passer rating.

The Chiefs rank 29th in total defense allowing  24.0 points per game.The Rams are 20th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per contest. Tonight Im expecting both to allow a TD or more above their offensive averages which will create a score that eclipses to this number. 

Play OVER 

According to my power rankings and head to head systems analysis, the Rams matchup very well against the KC Chiefs and in a game that Im betting will see a lot of TDs, laying a FG is not asking to much and is actually a viable wagering option. Especially with this game moved to LA. It must be noted that when this tilt was scheduled to be played in Mexico City the Rams were 2.5 point chalk , so this line considering the new venue very much favors the Rams and their betting backers.

 
KANSAS CITY is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive game.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%) or more playing a team with a winning record are 4-22 L/10 seasons and 1-10 L/5 seasons and have lost 4 straight last 3 seasons, with the combined average loss coming by 9.3 ppg.

NFL Favorites (LA RAMS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

The Bears are leading in the division, just ahead of the Vikings , which means this game is for first place. This  tilt  should feature play off intensity which will favour the more experienced big game team, which is the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have had a fine season thus far, but this matchup is a step up in class. When the chips are down , Ill back the smash mouth Vikings getting points. Yes, da Bears  looked good last week, against the downtrodden Lions but in the past CHICAGO has been a bad bet in the followup going  0-8 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game. I personally believe everyone is getting a little bit ahead of themselves with backing Chicago as possible top tier team going forward ,and tonight I expect that when the final whistle blows that some pundits time to pause and rethink their positions. Hey folks Im not knocking the Bears, and  in the not so distant future, might actually ending up being as good as the headlines might indicate , However,  Im just saying there is value taking the under rated Vikings in this spot as dogs.  Note: Vikes HC Mike Zimmer is  13-1-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

 .

New Orleans is  nightmare for defensive co-orridnators to deal with, but Philadelphia coaching staff, are extremely capable as they have proven in the recent past .    The Saints despite of all the accolades they are getting are weak favs here and have been in the past when irrational exuberance has been prevalent as is evident by their  0-8 ATS L/8 record as a favorite of at least eight points . New Orleans recent top tier performances including last weeks domination against Cincinnati, 51-14 has everyone and his dog, singing the praises of Drew Bree's and company.  Last week the Saints accumulated a ungodly 509 of offense in their victory but in the past the Saints have been a bad bet in the followup going just  0-7 ATS L/7 coming off a game as a road favorite where they had at least 400 yards of total offense  . The Saints also dominated time of possession  (39:46) but once again have failed in their followup going 0-7 ATS  L/7 coming off a game as a road chalk when they had at least 32 minutes time of possession. Also it must be noted that Defending Super Bowl Champions like the Eagles  are 13-1 ATS as road dogs versus .825 + opposition  including 7-0 SUATS since 2000.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 roles rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons

 NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 25-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Denver will be fresh as they come off a bye week, and cannot be conservative in their approach against a Chargers team that can be offensively explosive. The Broncos Im betting will push the action and San Diego will respond in kind and push back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that eclipses this very beatable number. Note: NFL teams like Denver coming off their Bye Week have gone over in 10 of 12 qualifying games so far in the 2018 campaign  in Conference play.

Last time out Denver took part in a heart breaking 19-17 loss to the Texans a game where they missed two FGs, but in that game the Broncos threw  for 273 yards in the loss and are capable of moving the ball through the air which is important for us looking for an OVER ticket to cash.  The Broncos  have now gone OVER 7 straight times as a dog coming off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards. Denver is 8-1 OVER  in road games vs .700  or better  opposition .

Play on the OVER 

 Carolina got embarrassed last Thursday in a 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh and will be primed for bounce back win here vs slumping Lions  team that is on a current 3-game SUATS losing streak. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed, especially the Panthers..With that said, Im betting on Carolina a side that is 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS in road games when coming off a double-digit loss and taking on a sub .500 opponent to be ready to deliver themselves redemption in. a big way here today. The Panthers are also bankroll fattening 8-1 ATS in tilts after giving up 40 or more points .

HC Rivera is 22-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of CAROLINA.

Detroit is an nasty 0-12 ATS as a underdog on artificial turf when they are off a road loss by more than a TD and they are facing a team that has committed an average of less than 1.5 turnovers per game season-to-date. DETROIT is 2-15 ATS L/17 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

Last week, the Tennessee Titans ended their seven-game losing streak against Tom Brady with a surprising and  convincing 34-10 victory over the New England Patriots. On Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the Titans will not be so lucky this week ( pardon the pun) vs another top tier  quarterback when they face the Colts. The Titans are 0-9 all time against Andrew Luck who was key in a win vs the Jags last week. 

TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 and is  1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

The Jaguars in a must win situation today have really struggled of late, but they actually matchup well vs the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Steelers have won five consecutive games while the Jaguars have lost five in a row.I know both teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but the Jags desperation and the type of football Im confident the Jags can play when cornered will challenge the Steelers this Sunday. I expect the Jaguars  No. 2 overall defense and No. 1 ranked  pass D  to be the difference maker in what will be a hard fought game. 

 Steelers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NFL team (JACKSONVILLE) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

The Falcons 4-5 on the season have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL after getting mauled by the Steelers last week for 51 points. After that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to play some hard core physical defence this week vs the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas 4-5 a team that has has allowed 19 ppg overall on D, and has  averaged just 16.4 ppg on the road this season, will play a methodical game, which Im betting results in a score that stays on the low side of the Total. 

DALLAS in their L/6 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.

DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992

Quinn is 9-1 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.Garrett is 8-1 UNDER  in road games off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival as the coach of DALLAS.

Under is 8-0 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in Week 11.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 vs. NFC.Under is 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 road games.Under is 13-5 in Cowboys last 18 games overall.Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 22-9 in Falcons last 31 games in November.Under is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 13-6-1 in Falcons last 20 games in Week 11.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.) are 36-12 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Rebels  pulled off  huge upset last time out  when they beat the San Diego State Aztecs as 24-point dogs, 27-24. Im betting they use the momentum of that game to buoy them here in Paradise Island tonight vs a tired looking Rainbow Warriors side that has put alot of air miles  on their bodies this season. 

HAWAII is 0-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.UNLV is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons

CFB  road team (UNLV) - off a win against a conference rival, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 44-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB  home team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 5-29 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover 

Last season  the Washington State Cougars were upset  in Tucson  against the Arizona Wildcats  as road chalk  by a 58-37count and now revenge is at hand for the Cougars at home here in Pullman this week.   I know Khalil Tate is a star QB, and gives Arizona a chance when he is healthy , but this is not a good situation for the Wildcats as they will have problems on the defensive side of the ball dealing with the Cougars deadly aerial attack and a overall 10-0 mark in the ITS battles. 

 ***Cougars quarterback Gardner Minshew II, the nation's leader in passing yards per game (385.2), and a Washington State attack that leads the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). The Wildcats rank 10th in the conference in total defense (417 yards per game) and ninth in pass defense (248.7 yards per game).

 WASHINGTON ST is 10-0 ATS  after gaining 325 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. ST is 6-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of 14.2 . ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Washington State Cougars to cover 

This PAC12 matchup has the making of a big time take no prisoners  shootout. Arizona State offence has been very steady of late scoring 38,38,31 points respectively in their L/3 and here against a inconsistent Oregon D I'm betting they have a similar output in this spot. Meanwhile, Oregon despite of their inconsistencies their offence has been very explosive at home averaging more than 43 ppg, and Im betting they fire back with some fireworks of their own , in a tilt that I project will eclipse this total.

The two most recent meetings in this series over the L/2 seasons have seen 72, and 89 total points go on the board. 

OREGON in their L/8 against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 69.8 ppg scored.OREGON is 18-7 OVER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 62% or worse with a combined average of 67.7 ppg scored. OREGON is 21-7 OVER  in a home game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 with the combined average score clicking in a 70.8 ppg. 

Oregon has gone OVER 14 straight times at home coming off a loss where they failed to cover with the average combined score clicking in at  73.3 ppg. ( The Ducks lost at Utah last week 32-25)

Play OVER 

The last 2 weeks have seen the Longhorns  put  40+ point explosions on the board which Im betting is an anomaly and I'm also betting they fall back down to earth here this Saturday at least from a offensive perspective vs a Iowa State side that has allowed an average of  just 18.7 ppg on the road this season, I expect the Cyclones  a team that has scored just 23 ppg on the road behind  a  methodical approach, to slow this game down to a crawl, which will result in a score that stays under the Total. 

IOWA ST is 11-1 UNDER after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons

TEXAS is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 season.TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB team against the total (TEXAS) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Georgia Southern is in the precarious position of coming into this road game in an emotional letdown situation after facing Troy last week at home and losing, which puts an end to their Sun Belt East conquest. It must be noted that Coastal Carolina Chanticleers do not make alot of mistakes , which is not a good omen for a Georgia Southern side, that has a 21 turnover margin this season. Georgia S. has failed to cover 6 straight vs teams like Coastal that have one or less turnovers a game on average. The Chanticleers have two games left and they need to grab a win to be bowl eligible, which makes them motivated home dogs. 

CFB Favorites of -175 to -400 vs. the money line (GA SOUTHERN) - opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced after 8+ games, in conference games are 9-22 SU L/26 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

Senior citizen Hall of Fame coach of the year HC Bill Snyder in his final campaign  before retiring has had a down year, but still must not be discounted at home as the   Red Raiders come knocking. With Texas Techs Freshman  star QB Alan Bowman out with a collapsed lung injury Texas Tech will go with backup QB Jett Duffey who despite of looking good against Texas last time out, is still not ready for whats coming here in this nasty road  environment where the home team needs wins desperately to go Bowling this season and help their long time coach go out with hands raised. It must be noted that Snyder is 32-3 SU at home against opponents off consecutive losses like the Techsters are, including 11-0 ATS vs.400 or better opposition.

CFB ( TEXAS TECH) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more against opponent off a home win are 3-33 L/10 seasons for a 91%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KState to cover 

Im a big supporter of Tennessee and really like the way the seniors and veterans of this football program have stood up for Rocky top. The defence has been terrific of late, against sub par offences, but will be tested in a big way this week when free wheeling run and shoot Missouri a team  that has averaged 35.5 ppg of offence this season and allowed 32.5 ppg in road games . Missouri has scored 63 and 50 points respectively in the last two meetings in this series and are viable bet to come close to those outputs again. Im betting the Vols will do their best to answer back in no quit fashion, which will result in a higher scoring game than many of the pundits expect. 

MISSOURI is 16-4 OVER after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers with a combined average of 65.8 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by junior quarterback J’Mar Smith has 13 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions and 2300+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns and can light up the board in conservative duel threat fashion against the best of defences, which Southern Miss owns . Meanwhile, LA Tech is also solid defensively, but Im betting  Southern Miss should do fine here today no matter which one of their QBs starts ( Jack Abraham or Tate Whately). Im expecting more points than the low total estimations which are based on defensive stats alone. 

Play OVER 

 Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown last week by  taking out the Iowa Hawkeyes and Im betting they won't be as motivated here this week in what should be a natural letdown situation. . Meanwhile, Minnesota  upset and pounded the Purdue Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point home dog.   The  Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling and will  go all out here to beat Northwestern  , because the following week sees them go to Wisconsin.  I know Northwestern somehow clinched the West this season, but they are far from being a top tier side, as is evident by an offence that is  ranked No. 112 in the nation and that has been out yarded by an average of 23 YPG. Add to that Minnesota has also had this game circled  and have revenge on board for a nasty 39-0 loss in Evanston last season and you have a viable wagering opportunity backing the home dog Gophers\. 

MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS off a upset win as a double digit underdog. 

CFB  road team vs. the money line (NORTHWESTERN) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival are 3-33 L/26 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Gophers to cover 

A come-from-behind upset win over No. 22 North Carolina State and controlled fashion, now has Wake actually talking Bowl invitation. The 27-23 win was methodical in nature, which is different than how the Demon Deacons have played their games this season. Meanwhile, the  Panthers have alot to play for  as well, with a clear path ahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on the horizon. With that said, look for both teams to be conservative in their approaches today with neither wanting to make mistakes, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER in road lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.3 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored  and  is 7-0 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game. 

Clawson is 23-9 UNDER in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams need wins to be Bowl eligible which will make for a hard fought game. TCU rushing attack was down right bad last week vs West Virginia, but  should do much better here vs a Baylor side  that  is a league worst against the rush allowing 183.8 yards a game on the ground. TCU has  the best third-down defense in the league, limiting opponents to a 33.1 percent conversion rate in those situations (47-for-142).Baylor, strength offesnively has been meanwhile,   third downs by converting 45.5 percent (66-for-145) , but in a close game TCU D, looks set to be the difference maker. 

 CFB Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 33-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU 

Boise  State is coming off a huge win vs Fresno State at home last week by a 24-17 count, and should now be in an emotional letdown spot coming into this game against New Mexico. I know the Lobos don't inspire bettors, after a disappointing season and 5 straight losses, but according to my own projections this point spread and taking points with the home dog has value attached to it. Look for the backfield of Tyrone Owens, Zahneer Shuler, and Ahmari Davis, and Daevon Vigilant  to churn out yards and get us the cover. 

Note :the last time the Lobos played a team at home of Boise States calibre they hung with San Diego State losing by just one TD, so its not like they cannot be competitive, because they have proven they can.  Head coach Bob Davie’s tenure  is due to end. but Im betting he will have his troops primed to pull off an upset here in what will be their version of a bowl game. 

HC Harsin is 2-10 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of BOISE ST  NEW MEXICO is 11-2 ATS in home games off 3 straight losses against conference rivals and the football program is 40-20 ATS L/60 vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.Davie is 18-8 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of NEW MEXICO.

Play on New Mexico to cover 

Florida Atlantic and North Texas do battle in a contest that Im betting eclipses the Total.

N.Texas has averaged 40.4 ppg at home in offence this season. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic despite of being inconsistent on offence has the guns to light any team in the Sun Belt . They nailed 52 points on Old dominion and scored 36 on UCF on the road and have had back to back outputs of 49 and 34 points. Their Achilles heel remains a defence that has allowed an average of 37.8 ppg on the road. Everything points to offensive fireworks here tonight. FAU scored 41 last year and 59 points the year before vs North Texas, and now N.Texas looks to do damage to in retaliation mode. 

Play OVER 

Houston gets to many accolades from the media , and are just not living up to expectations as this season progresses, something that has been a common theme with them over the last few seasons. They have a load of talent but game preparation and inconsistency remains a problem, as does a defence that has allowed an 500+ypg  and has also given up  2,049 yards in its last four games including 44 ppg. Meanwhile, Tulane has quietly  gotten better as this season, has progressed behind a hard nosed defence and an offence that has steadily improved over their L/4 trips to the gridiron. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons and has failed to cover 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. 

Tulane is 6-1 ATS L/7 as a 10 point or less underdog. 

CFB  team (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 12-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Ball States defence has been atrocious over the L/3 weeks allowing 42,52,45 points respectively. W.Michigan despite of being without their starting QB Jon Wassink are  still capable slicing and dicing this putrid  downtrending Ball State D, by using key cog  junior RB Levante Bellamy ranks No. 10 in college football with 907 yards rushing to set up the option. Meanwhile,  Ball State despite of also  being without starting QB  Riley Neal should also do damage vs a Broncos D, that has allowed 51, 49 points in back to back games.

BALL ST is 8-1 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 64.1 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in November games are 43-18 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and  take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season.  This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team  in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. 

Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights .

Philly is 0-3 UNDER  L/3 vs Dallas.

The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER  in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more  yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

The Raiders looked horrendous last week in their loss,  34-3 vs the 49ers last week and  have lost four in a row and are tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL at 1-7. Meanwhile, the Chargers won last week, but looked a little pooched, and won 25-17 vs Seattle last week. Their numbers however, were not overwhelming. It must be noted that the chargers are just  0-10 ATS  as a favorite of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs  , and 0-7 ATS L/7 as a favorite off a game as a underdog when they had less than 28 minutes time of possession, which was the case last week.  The Raiders lost on the road to the Chargers earlier this season 26-10 but will be a much tougher out this time around at home. NFL team (OAKLAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 42-17 ATS L/35 seasons for a long erm 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Note: NFL  home Teams which are more than 7 point  dogs are actually long term good bets going   192-162-4 ATS . I know its hard to take the Raiders considering their form, but if you can just plug your nose and pull the trigger on this stinker, you can feel confident that we have an edge on the books. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders 

The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits  entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined  19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6   on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. 

Im  betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. 

Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars are desperate for wins  and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots.  They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck  and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same.

The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts  have gone under 8 straight times  at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts  have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent.

NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Falcons are playing better ball of late , but are just  0-8 ATS in its last eight games against AFC opposition. Also you can not escape the fact that the Browns have a game changing QB at the helm of their offence and looks to be getting more comfortable each time out.   Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 draft pick has started three games and has thrown for 1,768 yards and 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He's been sacked 22 times but rushed for 91 yards when scrambling. In last week's loss to Kansas City, Mayfield threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield helps his team get us the cover here. ATLANTA is 11-32 ATS  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games .

Cleveland Browns to cover 

The Bengals are one of the most under rated teams in the NFL, and despite of the Saints getting all the accolades could easily be in a letdown spot after gruelling  back to back games  and wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the LA Rams and in a look ahead situation to the Eagles who are next on the agenda. Bengals are 8-1-1 SU and 10-0 ATS as home underdogs against NFC opponents and look like a viable bet here today. 

NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS L/28 against AFC North division opponents.Cincinnati has covered 3 straight at home in this series and get the nod again taking points. 

The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 at home off a win in which they were outgained by their opponent. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS L/6 when they are off three consecutive games with a positive DPA.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - mistake-free team (1.25 roles TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25  or less TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 58-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Titans are a methodical team, that is capable of keeping this score close enough to cover the number here vs Tom Brady and company. No, really , you might be laughing right about now, but the Titans have the better D, by 49 ypg, and must not be underestimated as TD underdog at home. The Titans have only been non competitive in one of their games this season, a 21-0 shutout vs Baltimore, but the wins and even the losses have all been 3 points or less including a impressive win vs the defending Super Champs the Philadelphia Eagles. It hard to bet against the Pats, but this is actually a good spot for the Titans. Note: The Titans are 7-0 ATS L/7 when they are at home between two road games. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

Both California and USC have been inconsistent this season, but the Trojans from a head to head matchup perspective are the superior side according to my power ranking numbers and matchup well vs the Bears. I know Cal has covered 3 straight but they have also been outgunned in 3 of their L/4 overall. With both teams needing a win to get a Bowl invite, Im betting both will be primed to play but home field advantage will be the difference maker. 

The USC  Trojans  have owned this series vs California in the past and are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home and are 16-1 against. the Bears in their last 17 meetings overall . USC has won 14 straight  vs the Bears, and covered the this weak number in each of those tilts. 

CFB team (USC) - good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) against an average defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on USC to cover 

Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg  at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility  Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

California has a conservative  formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away  on the ground  , and grab points any way they can. They have  scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER  in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. 

Play UNDER 

The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. 

CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging  425  or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. 

CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

LSU was manhandled by Alabama  last week 29-0 , and are now beat up and downtrodden after that very physical affair and I'm betting they will be in a huge letdown situation here this week on the road vs feisty Arkansas gridiron group. Energy levels will be low for the Tigers  , after their  SEC title hopes and most likely its CFP aspirations were  crushed and Arkansas will be ready to take advantage of the situation. Take the points

Arkansas has covered 4 of the L/5 here as DD home dogs vs LSU and are 8-3 ATS L/11 in this series overall. LSU has failed to cover 4 straight vs .400 or less SEC opposition. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

Florida International was smashed last week by instate rivals Florida Atlantic by a 49-14 count, and  will be in a letdown situation , and may have some problems dusting off the brutality of that beating as they go on the road vs a team that played them tough last season (14-7).

UTSA might have a negative record but  are more than capable enough of covering and have had a propensity to keep their home games close as is evident by a -8 point differential this season .UTSA  L/9  home lined games over the last 2 seasons have seen a average 1.1 line differntial UTSA 22.9 OPP 21.8 .Overall UTSA L/20 line games have seen a -3.4 ppg line differntial UTSA 20.1 OPP 23.5.

UTSA to cover 

Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg  at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. 

LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER  as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. 

Play OVER 

Auburn (6-3, 3-3)  enters this rivalry game with  Georgia with  a huge chip on their shoulders , and are also  motivated to get revenge for last year's loss to the Bulldogs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium . Head coachGus Malzahn. prior to his recent two game win streak has taken alot of heat from alumni and boosters, but has been golden for  his betting backers  going 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 13-0 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in conference games. Georgia after their huge win vs Kentucky last week, may have problems rising up with as much intensity this week, which gives credence to me backing the road dog here. 

GEORGIA is 8-24 ATS L/32 in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team (GEORGIA) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 2 or less rushing yards/attempt last game 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Auburn to cover 

Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season  the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit   or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. 

W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. 

CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

We have value here with South Alabama as injured QB Evan Orth is expected to play. I expect the Warhawks despite of leading the West, wanting revenge for a loss in this series last season, could easily still be caught looking ahead to bigger fish with Louisiana and Arkansas State up next. The Warhawks weakness has been their pass defence, and could easily get torched by Orth this week who has a 65% passer conversion rate. 

Play on South Alabama to cover 

East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. 

TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Kentucky was demolished last week by Georgia 34-17 and enter this road game against up trending Tennessee in a emotional letdown scenario. Believe it or not its not a good bounce back opportunity for the Wildcats as they are just 4-34 all time in this series and have lost their L/13 trips here. In Kentuckys last 4 trips to the gridiron they have averaged just 15 ppg and could easily find themselves up ended by a Volunteers side that upset Auburn as a road dog and lost by just a FG to South Carolina as road pups. Im betting that if Snell and company can  muster up enough energy to get the win here it won't come easily making Tennessee a viable home dog. 

Note: Kentucky has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 as favorites.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Gophers’ have played their best football at home this season as evident by their 4-1  home record  as opposed to 0-4 on the road this campaign.The Gophers biggest problems have come on defence but HC  P.J. Fleck fired his defensive coordinator and Im expecting things to turnaround in that department. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers after 3 hard fought battles against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa may come into this game pooched and over looking their lower trending opponent. Considering the Gophers are 8-1 ATS as  double-digit home dog Im expecting that taking the points proves golden.  Note: Purdues last 12 games played on turf has seen a 0.6 ppg average differential. 

Take the points with Minnesota to cover