Cappers Sports Picks

SF HC Shanahan,  has gone 21-5 . SU with  Jimmy Garoppolo at QB , and overall the 49ers have  the edge in rush offense, rush defense and pass defense. I know the best player on the field is considered to be young QB super star Patrick Mahomes, but the complete package is on the side he is facing today. Considering the Chiefs were down by two TDs to the Pats , and were down 24-0 to the Texans, and 10-0 to the Titans, the feeling here for me here is, that as explosive as the Chiefs are there karmic regression is coming and their consistent flirting with disaster is essentially going to bite them on the proverbial butts vs a side that if in the lead will grind them into the ground via a concerted ground attack. All in all Im all in here on the 49ers being this years super bowl champs. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily  tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in  less first downs and offensive flow and that  will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

After being embarrassed by a 37-8 count by the SF 49ers back in November, Im betting the Packers learned a great deal from thier humiliation and will be prepared to bounce back here and make a game of this behind a defence that prior to win vs Seattle last week had held their L/5 regular season opponents to an average of 14.2 ppg. 

The Packers  head coach Matt LaFleur, has been a bankroll expanding  11-6 ATS (24.9% ROI), as an  underdog this season while the 49ers  have seen underdogs cash at a 11-5-1 ATS clip against them this season.  LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Shannahan on three separate teams in his career and knows him as well or better than anyone in football. 

Green Bay to cover 

We all know how explosive the Chiefs offence is , but Im sure the Titans plan is to try to keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible by pounding the rock on the ground via    Derrick Henry . It must be noted that the Titans offense has averaged 198 rushing yards per game with him hugging the ball  over his last 8 games (5.9 yards per carry) . Odds are highly likely that more success is on board this Sunday vs a Chiefs D, that has   allowed 4.9 yards per carry and were ranked  29th in defensive rushing DVOA.   

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

Reid is 4-13 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1999.

Teams like the Titans  off breaking the 100-yard plateau on the ground,   29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS in the followup and  are a bankroll expanding  20-5 ATS  for their backers against opposition  coming off a  big double-digit win like the Chiefs achieved . Also, underdogs +7  or more have gone 37-26-1 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs, including 9-2 ATS in conference championships or later. Add to that NFL teams who are off  scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game like KC are  1-14-1 ATS L/15 as chalk dating back 24 seasons. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

I look at this game, and see an experienced tested  championship team like Clemson, going against an upstart LSU team that has had a tremendous success in the short term behind a very talented group of players, but lacks experience in big games. That experience and Clemsons superior defence Im betting wins out here today. Advantage Clemson. 

CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game this season. CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS  in road games after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons (Clemson 40.9 opp 11.1)

Swinney is 15-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return as the coach of CLEMSON. 

Play on Clemson to cover  

I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. 

SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t  have  gone under at a  36-22-1 clip  including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL  play off games  games have  been going under more often than not  notching a  75-56-4  UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and  public perceptions.  

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored.  

KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

All season long the Ravens have had the pedal to the metal.All season long  I could not  get the feeling out of my head, that they would eventually run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. So here they are in their first play off game of the season , as  a huge public favorite , going up against a upstart group Tennessee group  fresh off a upset of the New England Pats.

Bottom line :The Titans  with momentum and confidence on their sides. and a physical defense and  strong running game are a team built to compete with a side like the Ravens. It must also be noted that since QB  Ryan Tannehill became the starter, the Titans are 7-3-1 ATS for an impressive 35.4% ROI.

But about football god, QB Lamar Jackson, he surely can make this a cake walk. I say hold your horses, on that concept, as road underdogs are 8-3 ATS for a 41% Return on Investment  against the Ravens in Jackson’s starts under center. 

Play on the Titans to cover 

 I have said all season long, that the Vikings were going to be a dark horse favorite of mine entering the play offs, because of their hardcore work ethic, and bruising defense, and ability to play up to opponents and hand out a smash mouth type of performance. I know the public just loves SFs super star QB Jimmy G, but like the old saying goes defense travels well, and here today against a 49ers side, that not seen play off football for a while, the wheels may come off at the worst possible time. Look for QB Cousins of the Vikings to do just enough to help us get the cover today. 

Dating back 16 seasons  Divisional Round road underdogs are 36-24-1 ATS  for a 16.3% Return on investment . 

Minnesota s HC  Mike Zimmer dating back 5 seasons has been a ATM for  Vikings betting backers  when going up against  non-divisional  foes recording a massive bankroll expanding  44-19-1 ATS  record for a 35.4% ROI. 

NFL  Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Two top tier football programs with hardcore discipline go head to head in the FCS championship game. This game sees North Dakota States 33-1 SU play off record on the line . ( interestingly enough the only loss came against James Madison).  Bottom line is Im betting the total is a better investment option than what my projections estimate is a coin flip game. 

I cannot see either quarterback carving up the others secondary, and I also expect for both running games to falter against staunch front 7s. Im betting both sides have moderate grinding success moving the ball between the 30s but when it comes to finishing drives  we will see what hardcore defence is all about. Both these sides are tough as nails and rarely make mistakes, which bolsters my under wager . 

Play UNDER 

LendingTree Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Miami O offence just cannot generrate consistent flow and the Redhawks rank outside the top 100 in quarterback passer rating, line yards and finishing drives. The RedHawks offence or lack ther off will go against a   UL Lafayette group that ranks top 20 in defensive finishing drives, which is not a good omen for ouptut conversion rate when entering the red zone. Something Im betting the Redhawks dont do much of today aqnyway. On the other side, of the ball, Miami Os defence is very capable and physical for a MAC team and have the ability to slow down the Cajuns explosive attack. Note: Miami 0 is ranked 26th in the nation defensive havoc. 

Both punt units rank to 20 in the nation, so field postion will also hinder offences if expected averages continue --which the odds say are highly likey. 

What Im betting on here is a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

In Miami Os last L/12 non conference games a combined average of 51.1 have been scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI OHIO) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 38-10 UNDER L/27 seasomns for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER  in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total)

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

Play UNDER

NFC Wild Card Playoffs

I firmly believe that the Vikings are dark horse playoff contenders, and Im will to put my money where my mouth his here today vs the mighty Saints. The big concern with New Orleans is their D, and despite of their good over lying numbers, the metrics tell a different story, as they have been torched for 28 or more more points in 3 of their L/6 games. 

Vikings HC Mike Zimmer, responds owns a  43-18-2 ATS career record  in non-division tilts, including 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss which they did in their last game of the regular season. The Vikings are also  13-0 ATS L/13 covering my more than 12 ppg as a dog when their opponent is off two double-digit win and they are not off a double-digit win.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS  in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 13-35 ATS L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Pats may not be a real Super Bowl contender this season, and Tom Brady may have lost a few steps as Father Time catches up to him . However, this experienced New England team is more than capable of knocking off a Tennessee team that did not play against the Pats this season, and have no real gauge as to handle their attack or perceived weaknesses, other than film and scouting reports. The same can be said for Beliichik and company, but it must noted that the Pats are 17-1 SU in playoff games behind Bill Belichick in games against opponents they did not face during the regular season. It must also be noted that QB Ryan Tannehill has no experience in the play offs while, Tom Brady is the god of play off football, and is always one patented series of plays away from a key TD,making the Pats the side to back today. Hey guys I know recency bias comes into play here as NE looks horrendous last week vs Miami. However, as outlandish as it might sound I would not  be surprised if Bellichick and company really wanted to win last week as badly as many might have thought and instead were playing possum. I know , this sounds like a whacky conspiracy theory , but this HC is a football and mad genius like no other  , and who. knows where his degenerate thoughts go. He's proven he is not beyond doing anything to win games and this might be his physiological peace   de resistance . Time will tell, but Im betting on the Pats to advance and more importantly cover in a short line.  

The Titans are 2-22 ATS L/24 when they are off a win and they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game.

NEW ENGLAND is 31-10 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS  in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Play on the NE Pats 

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

Armed Forces Bowl - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

After a very strong start to their season Tulane fell apart down the stretch losing 5 of their L/6 and are on a 3 game losing streak. Their demise has a lot to do with the disintegration of their  offensive line coupled with the struggles of  LSU transfer QB Justin McMillan, who was sacked 18 times  during that ugly  6-game run. Here against a Southern Miss D,  ranked No. 36 in the country in total defense (350.3 ypg). Im betting the Wave scoring output will once again be curtailed . Meanwhile,The Golden Eagles have relied heavily on their passing  game this season as . Southern Miss ranked among the top 25 nationally and led Conference USA in passing offense (288.6 ypg) during the regular season,  and today Im betting on them hitting enough explosive plays to get us the promised land and get us the cover.

Play on Southern Miss to cover

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

The Wolf Pack played in the 2006 and 2008 bowls, losing to Miami and Maryland, respectively. The Bobcats played in the 2011 bowl, beating Utah State. 

This Ohio football  program has  a viable strong history and culture under Solich that has an explosive offense and that Im betting will be the difference maker here today.

Add to that Nevada will be without key starters on the defensive side of the ball  for a brawl they had with UNLV in their last game of the season and have a new defensive coordinator for this game, which is not a good omen for a  Wolfpack side that   ranks 116th in defensive rushing success rate and 115th in line yards.  With that said, Im betting on Solich pounding the rock on the ground today for big gains and score behind Rourke and for Nevadas inconsistent offence to have issues repsonding.

  Solich is 9-2 ATS  after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of OHIO U.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - excellent offensive team ( 440  or more YPG) against a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio . to cover 

Indiana must not be underestimated here behind an  offense that ranked No. 14 in offensive SP+.  This Hoosiers side , looked very viable against a top tier opponent in Penn State in mid-November and just missed on a victory at Michigan State when the Spartans were ranked No. 25 in late September. This is a good team, and despite of Tennessee turning a corner and up-trending Im betting they hit a disrespected buzz saw here today and end up on the wrong side of the ATS sheet. Note:  Vols Wide receiver Jauan Jennings a future NFLer in the  will sit the first half with a  suspension from a sideline altercation against Vanderbilt, that Im betting will have Tennessee starting slow offensively. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - off a home win against a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

All-American LT Andrew Thomas not suiting up for Georgia and  starting RT Isaiah Wilson also out out as they prepare for the NFL draft as well as  starting guard Ben Cleveland  who was ruled academically ineligible.It does end there as the Dawgs will also be  without its top two receivers a Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock  as they deal with injuries. Georgias key RBs could also be out as leading rusher DeAndre Swift,  is banged up and hobbled and could easily just try to get healthy before the  NFL Draft and skip here or see very limited action. Add to that  James Cook,  is in trouble with the law for a having a gun in his car, and you have an array of Georgia Bulldogs  out or missing and team with very little motivation taking the field today against a hard working Baylor team, that has a coach on the sidelines in Matt Rhule who has thrived in the underdog role for bettors, going 33-15 ATS getting points and 30-14-1 ATS in neutral site tilts . Some times Bowl games are all about motivation that off sets some talent issues. Kirby Smarts group is a team that could easily just be going through the motions here today, while Baylor will be sky high and ready to make a mark and get this program back on the College football map again.Per Rhule, he will have his entire team at his disposal, including starting quarterback Charlie Brewer, who left the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 7 with a concussion.

"Our guys value the opportunity to compete. I think they value the opportunity to compete against one of the best teams in the country," Rhule said. "What a great measuring stick for us as a program, our players. And we have a lot of guys that -- everyone is going to play."

Rhule is 10-1 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Rhule is 11-1 ATS  after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992

BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game this season. BAYLOR is 11-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Advantage Baylor plus the points 

Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA

 I was surprised to see this line float into the FG range with  Wisconsin, as according to my projections the underdog Oregon Ducks were the slightly superior side and matchup well against a team like Wisconsin that uses their running attack as a key to controlling time of possession . I know many pundits have not given the Ducks D, the kudos they deserve this season, because of perception . The Ducks are perceived as just an explosive offensive team, but the real truth is that they are balanced and have shown themselves resilient defensively holding 6 teams to season low offensive yards output.Key here today will be pressure on Whiskeys QB- look for  Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Kayvon Thibodeaux (team-high 14.0 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks) to pace an Oregon defense  ranked No. 11 in the country with 41 sacks.

QUOTE: "Between Oregon and Ohio State, they both have amazing athletes on the field that get after the quarterback and make big plays," Badgers quarterback Jack Coan told reporters. "They're an amazing defense." END QUOTE:

OREGON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. OREGON is 45-14 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game and is 32-9 ATS  after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. 

It must also be noted that Mario Cristobal’s Ducks  are a bankroll expanding  8-0  ATS as underdogs  versus the Big 10 opposition, and 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS as dogs with rest. 

CFB Bowl pups with 17 or more returning starters from last year returning if they  won 8 or less games,  and are coming off an ATS win of 3-plus points, are 15-1 ATS since 1990.  (Oregon fits this description)

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

Mac Jones,  Alabamas new  No. 1 quarterback , has completed 69.8 percent of his 166 pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns, after taking over from the injured Tua Tagovailoa .Jones has dynamic receivers to target, including DeVonta Smith (65 catches, 1,200 yards, 13 TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (71 catches, 959 yards, 9 TDs) and is more than capable of helping his team pile up points vs a Michigan team that showed themselves defensively porous at times against top tier teams like Ohio State this season.( Ohio State smashed the Wolverines by a 57-29 count). Meanwhile, Michigan can also fire back with some offensive firepower of their own,  with Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson who has thrown 22 touchdown passes and scored five more on the ground this season. I expect some big plays and scores by the Wolf man and crew vs one of Alabamas most mediocre defences in years. LSU pounded Alabama for 46 points in 46-41 win towards the end of this season.  Truth is I smell fire works about to be lit here today and a game that features alot of points . MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 63.9 ppg scored. ALABAMA is 11-2 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 66.7 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ALABAMA/MICHIGAN) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Alamo Bowl - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX

HC Herman of Texas may not have a great overall record with this program of late, but what he does well is to get his teams to play tough competition at a top tier level as is evident by cashing 15 of his L/20 as an underdog. Im betting on Texas here today vs a Utah team that was humbled in their last game of the season vs Oregon .Because of that mentioned debacle the Utes missed the play offs and may not be as motivated as need be here vs a Texas side that has won their L/3 Bowl appearances.

Utah will be at a disadvantage with All-Pac-12 safety Julian Blackmon (knee) and cornerback Jaylon Johnson (NFL draft) both ruled out. So Sam Ehlinger should have success behind what is a healthy Longhorn offence, that will have senior wideout Collin Johnson (hamstring) and junior tight end Cade Brewer (ankle)in the lineup and ready to play.

TEXAS is 17-4 ATS L/21 after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game  which happened in their last game of the regular season in a 49-24 victory vs Texas Tech. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Arizona Bowl - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

Georgia state according to my power rankings matches up very well vs this punchless Wyoming football program that will have problems taking advantage of a sometimes porous GState D.  On the flip side,  Georgia State averages 32.5 PPG and is ranked  No. 14 in the nation with their ground attack and  27th in total offense and should do more than enough damage to secure a cover here . Note:Sun Belt   conference teams have been cash cows  in bowl games since 2013  going 26-9  straight up and SBC bowl pups  of  3  or more points are a bankroll expanding  11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS and get the nod again this New Years eve.

Georgia State to cover 

 Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

The Kansas State Wildcats and  Navy Midshipman are not quite identical but   they do both like to dominate time of possession. The Wildcats rank fourth in the country in that stat, holding the ball for an average of 34:16 per game while  Navy owns a  33:14 time of possession . That means the Mids can count on getting fewer snaps then usual , as is the case when Army goes against Navy. With that said, Im betting on a grinding game that has both sides ground attack eating up precious clock time and keeping this combined score on the low side of the total. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 47.1 ppg going on the board. 

NAVY is 33-15 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (NAVY) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-15 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 59-25 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

Navy triple option offence ranks no1. in the nation in rushing  and  they also own the   No. 2 Red Zone Offense. Your always going to get a great effort from a military teams, as is evident by Navys 5-0 ATS run  as a bowl favorite . Navy is not only hard working but very disciplined ranking No. 3 in nation with the least penalties. It must be noted that Military teams are 10-1 L/11 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points in Bowl games.

Kansas their opponent a team that lost 5 of 6 stats battles against Bowl teams might seem like a good matchup for the Middies, but despite of similar mind sets about running the ball and time of possession control , their actually not as cohesive or consistent as they seem as it must be noted that  the Wildcats rank No. 130 in Red Zone Defense. I know the  reputation of their current HC Chris Klieman (former North Dakota State super coach) but he lacks Bowl experience and that is going to be a detriment to him here today when this is all said and done. 

Tuesday’s Bowl tilt is about finishing their season with gusto for Navy. The Middies have a chance to tie the program record of 11 wins set in 2015 and end the year in the Associated Press rankings for just the third time in the past 56 years and Im betting on a humungous effort from them here today. 

. NAVY is 7-1 ATS  as a favorite this season. 

NAVY is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse this season.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NAVY) - excellent passing team (8.3  or better PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PY/Att.), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Navy to cover 

Sun Bowl - Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX

Mike Norvell has left Memphis and is now the new HC at Florida State. He won't be on the sidelines today, butIm sure he is having an influence already which is a positive going into this Bowl game Meanwhile, this Sun Devils  program is missing some key players here today on offence which will hinder their ability to be offensively aggressive ie 1000 yard rusher  Running back Eno Benjamin, and a 1000 yard receiver in Brandon Aiyuk  who are out getting ready for the NFL draft. Add to that to tha the Devils t have a lousy ATS record as bowlers as is evident by a   0-7 ATS mark all tine in Bowl games   versus the ACC. Add to that  PAC 12 teams are  just. 2-20 ATS L/3 seasons in Bowl games  .  ARIZONA ST iw also s 0-6 ATS  as a favorite this season and are fade material here vs a FSU side feeling good about themselves at the moment behind a new mentor. 

Play on FSU 

"I think our guys know I plan on being here for a long time. I know what I have here. I love being here. I think we're building a championship program here." – UF head coach Dan Mullen on NFL rumors. 
( The core of this team looks towards the future with Mullens on the sidelines which is both a key mitigating and momentum based factor that has me supporting the Gators here today on a two TD line)

This team has come a long way over the last two seasons and are only getting better. Virginia is a fine football program, but their over matched here by an over powering SEC team , and as this game moves forward the Gators Im betting will run away with this. 

Play on Florida to cover 

Redbox Bowl - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Illinois when they faced a team similar to California in the regular season, saw a game that saw  them beat  Michigan State  37-34  on Nov. 9. Im betting the Illini  very capable offense to once again do some damage here today, while their sometimes porous D to part like Moses parting the Red Sea. It must be noted that Californias last 4 games, all saw a combined point total that eclipsed this number. My projections make this line Total closer to 47 thus giving us one possession value on the over. Note: HC Wilcox in in 36 lined games as the coach of CALIFORNIA has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky's offense is efficient and were uptrending towards the end of the season averaging more than 37.4 ppg in their L/3 tilts. The Hilltoppers are  led by running back Gaej Walker, who collected 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per carry. Quarterback Ty Storey who started nine games at Arkansas last season before transferring , has completed 70.7 percent of his 294 passes for 2,209 yards, 12 touchdowns and matches up well vs W.Michigans inconsistent secondary and a D that has allowed an average of 36.5 ppg on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Western Michigan is also very capable offensively behind Running back LeVante Bellamy who has accumulated  1,412 rushing yards and is tied for the national lead with 23 rushing touchdowns, and  Quarterback Jon Wassink who was a third-team All-MAC selection, throwing for 2,904 yards, with 19 touchdowns. Western Michigan in games played on turf have scored an average of 36 ppg. Everything points to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

W KENTUCKY is 17-6 OVER L/23 after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored. 

W MICHIGAN in their L/6  road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s  tilts involving 2 above .500  sides  are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. 

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0  L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board.

NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Everyone just loves the Saints. After all they are exciting to watch, but it must be noted that they are  just 2-5 ITS the last seven games since their bye week and have some flaws. The Saints are also just 1-7 ATS K/8  as a favorite of 13 points  or more vs sub .500 opposition, and just 4-15 ATS as double-digit favourite  in division tilts . I know Carolina looked terrible last week in. a loss , but are a solid 7-0 ATS at home after scoring less than 7 points last time out. Im betting they give the Saints a fight this week and get us the cover. 

CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS L/5 37 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Carolina to cover 

New England will grab the No. 2 AFC seed with a victory today vs  the  visiting Miami Dolphins.The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43-0 on Sept. 15,  proving how well they matchup against the Fins.  Im expecting the Pats to be ready to hammer the Fins here again today as they need a win here and a tune up for the play offs at the same time. 

NFL team (MIAMI) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are just 2-23 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New England to cover 

This game means nothing for both sides, with the Chargers going golfing soon, and the Chiefs grabbing the No.2 seed in the AFC for the play offs. Expect a lot of wind here today in Arrowhead, and lower scoring game that impacts what will be a closer than anticipated matchup and cover by the road dog. Hey I know how ugly the Chargers looked las time out but they are 10-1 ATS  off SU favourite  loss 7  pts or more  vs .500  or better opposition. Note:Things have been less rosy at Arrowhead Stadium, which is typically considered one of the toughest environments in the NFL. The Chief  lost three consecutive games  to the Colts, Texans and Packers.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

Projected score: Clemson 31 Ohio State  27

CFB Playoff - Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Plenty off offence here, but what stands out about both Clemson and Ohio State is what amounts to be some of the physical defences in the nation.The Tigers are ranked  first in scoring defense (10.6) and first in total defense (244.7). haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game this season and Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (12.5) and second in total defense in the nation. With that said, Im betting we have a rockem sockem nasty in the trenches defensive slugfest today and what could easily be the national championship game. 

CLEMSON is 50-21 UNDER L/71 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.9 ppg scored. 

OHIO ST is 30-16 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 42.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CLEMSON) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 48-15 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 CFB Playoff - Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - ATLANTA, GA

 LSU  is third in the country in scoring (47.8) and first in yards (554.3)..The Sooners rank just behind the Tigers with averages of 43.2 points and 554.2 yards.The  Sooners  have scored 28 or more points in each of their last 51 games. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (out-gaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 36-10 OVERv L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Neutral field teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU/OKLAHOMA) - when playing on a Saturday are 30-10 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Camping World Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

Notre Dame owns a top tier offence butI Iowa State  behind quarterback Brock Purdy, who completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,760 yards, 27 touchdowns are no pushovers and deserve respect as underdogs in a neutral field environment. HC Kelly of Notre Dame  said could not afford to take Iowa State for granted. "This is a really good football team that could easily be 11-1," Kelly said. "We know what we're getting."Explosive offenses in the Big 12, really solid defensively, physical football team, well coached -- Matt Campbell is an outstanding football coach. It's going to be a good football team we're playing." I agree with Kellys assessments, and wont be surprised by a SU upset victory by the Cylcones here today. 

IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more ) over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 12-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. NOTRE DAME is 0-7 ATS L/7 in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games .

Iowa State is 31-13 ATS L/44 as a dog. 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Cotton Bowl - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Memphis seems to be a popular pick here by some pundits, but with HC Norvell  no longer on th sidelines for Memphis after taking the HC job at Florida State Im betting his former team may not have the needed guidance to deal with a top tier Penn State team that has tangled with some of the best teams in the country.You have to remember  Penn State  made Ohio State work hard for a 28-17 win in 2nd last game of the season. The way I lookout this is, if Memphis had some problems dealing with Cincinnatis D, they are really going to have issues taking on what Im betting is the most physical group they have faced all season long here vs the Nitanny Lions. Like the old saying goes, offence gets you to a championship but defensewins those big games. The good thing for Penn State is that they both have a  upper shelf D, to go a long with a under rated offence and Im betting they get the job done here today vs the underdog that is loved by the public because of their prolific scoring abilities. 

Penn Statest wo losses have come on the road by a combined 16 points to then-No. 17 Minnesota and No. 2 Ohio State.

Play on Penn State to cover 

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Oklahoma State's offense features the nation's leading rusher in sophomore back Chuba Hubbard. He ran for 1,936 yards on 309 carries (6.8 yards per carry) in the regular season. So Im betting they pound away on the ground today, and eat up clock time. Meanwhile, the Texas A&M D, allowed 12 rushing touchdowns all year, so output projections are low according to my estimates. The Aggies have played one of the more difficult schedules in the country. And have  battled Auburn, Alabama and LSU  and Georgia, so slowing down Oklahoma State offence will not be an extremely difficult task, while their own offence has been less than cohesive this season. This combination of projected scenarios makes for a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Pinstripe Bowl - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

MSU has gone against some of the best teams in the country this season and are more than prepared to take on Wake Forest in this Bowl tilt. Dantonio already owns school records for most bowl wins (five) and bowl appearances (12), including a school-record four-game bowl winning streak with victories in the 2011 Outback Bowl vs. No. 18 Georgia, 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl over TCU, 2014 Rose Bowl against No. 5 Stanford, and 2015 Cotton Bowl vs. No. 4 Baylor. The Spartans defeated No. 18 Washington State, 42-17, in the 2017 Holiday Bowl.

MSU has won five of its last seven bowl games.

Michigan State D, will out perform Wakes viable offence. After facing the likes of Penn State , Michigan, and Wisconsin the Spartans are more than ready for what comes their way here at Yankee Stadium.

CFB team (MICHIGAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 44-17 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

 Military Bowl - Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD

Mack Brown  has moved North Carolina forward since taking over as a coach and alosmot pulley's doff an upset vs Clemson earlier this season and  now gets a Bowl Game to preview their ascension..  Despite of this Im still not 100% sold on the Tar Heels and recently the  ACC in Bowl games have failed to cash 4 straight as chalk against  the AAC. Also  Brown himself is just   1-7 ATS as a  a HC as a bowl favorite of 4 or more points. Meanwhile, Temple  is a team that must not be underestimated in their tenacity and are 5-1 ATS as an underdog while  winning four times SU. The Temple offense was serviceable at 27.4 PPG (though 4-points below what their foes allowed on the season). The Owls defense is their strength and  allowed just  23.4 PPG and were No. 4 in Red Zone Defense this season and will be the difference maker today.  TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Temple to cover 

Motivation might be a issue here for Pittsburgh, but their defence is head and shoulders the superior side here today vs an atrocious E. Michigan D. I know the Panthers offence has taken some time to jell cohesively behind a new pass happy system, but today they should be able to get things going vs a below average secondary and a Eagles D, that rank 129th in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Note:MAC bowlers are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 8 or more points.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA

The LA Tech  Bulldogs enter this game with a lot to prove after losing the CUSA championship game UAB. It must also be mentioned that their starting QB was suspended for that tilt, but will play today behind what will be a crowd that is on their sides here in Shreveport . Note: LOUISIANA TECH is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons Tech are a talented bunch that is not getting enough respect here vs a inconsistent Miami Florida football program, that is ranked  No. 130 in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage  and No. 120 in Red Zone Offense and will be missing three  future NFL starters including their top wide receiver Jeff Thomas. The Bulldogs averaged  34 PPG and 445 YPG,  on offence and had a D that was ranked  No. 3 in Red Zone Defense. Im not a big Manny Diaz fan, and just don't like his mojo so betting against him is not a difficult proposition for me. Miami is just 2-9 SU L/11 Bowl games including a ugly 0-6 ATS as chalk Skip Holtz's  5-1 ATS in bowl game record shines through and gets my support. 

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Halawa, HI

 Hawaii had a good season overall  as they made it all the way to the Mountain West Championship game. Now the  Warriors get to host a BYU team that is bringing cheerleaders, their families, and even key donors to this game. Its going to be far from a (its all business type of experience for BYU ) and more like a vacation to paradise island which is a negative for game preparation. 

Both teams  pound the ball efficiently but the difference maker comes down to the arm of .Hawaii’s Cole McDonald who has thrown for  29 touchdown passes. 

BYU is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season. 

The dog has cashed 9 of the L/12 Hawaii Bowls. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Gasparilla Bowl - Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL

 This will the Herds  second straight Bowl game here in Raymond James Stadium, and they have a comfort edge going for them in this matchup vs UCF.  It is the fourth time that Marshall has played in the Tampa/St. Petersburg-based bowl game. The Herd is currently 3-0 in its trips to the contest. Add to that Marshall recruits a large number of its players from Florida, and many of them are excited to go home, and show case their abilities, so this Thundering Herd team will be motivated and Im betting they are viable underdogs in this spot play. 

UCF is 1-7 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games this season.

MARSHALL is 12-2 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. Holliday is 6-0 ATS/SU  in a bowl game as the coach of MARSHALL and is 11-2 ATS  in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

Take the points with Marshall to cover 

 Chicago is a physical team that matches up well vs the explosive Chiefs. Note: Chicago is 19-3 ATS with a .500 or less record when listed  as a home dog against the AFC opposition. 

Note: QB Patrick Mahomes should feel rushed today which will make for a nightmare for the Chiefs offensive flow. This will be the  first time the Kansas City Chiefs will go against super star  Khalil Mack since he was traded.  Mack used to be an Oakland Raider and totaled five and a half sacks against the Chiefs during his four year run in the AFC West. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

The Cards won last week vs the Browns, but this week Im betting they have their butts handed to them vs a explosive Seattle team that can very much take advantage of the Cards very porous defence, that allows, an average of 28.4 ppg on the road this season. Note: Carroll is 23-7 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.6 ppg.

The Cardinals are 0-17 SU/ATS L/17 on the road off a game as a home dog in which their scoring output increased by more than ten points over the game before.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 6-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. ( Seattle beat Arizona back in Sept on the road by a lopsided 27-10 count- Rinse and repeat here today)

Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover 

Dak Prescott is banged up with a sore shoulder, a finger injury on his throwing hand, and took limited snaps in practice.Even with nagging - or worse - injuries, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expects Prescott to be in "top form" against Philadelphia and I agree with the Boyz owner on this one, as its not hard to look good vs a consistently under performing Philadelphia D.There are jobs and reputations on the line, as well: Dallas coach Jason Garrett could save his job with a division title and a strong playoff run. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER  L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Jaguars have been completely stagnant of late, and are not getting much respect at all and they really don't deserve it , but neither does Atlanta and in no way according to my power rankings deserve to be a 7 point or more favourite vs anyone in this league including the lowly Jags. From a long term trends perspective it must be noted that  NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are a long term good bet going 120-64 ATS L/36 seasons for a solid 65% conversion rate for their betting backers. 

ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons and  is 0-7 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Atlanta Falcons are 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS in their last fourteen games against AFC opponents.

Advantage Jacksonville getting points 

 New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Blazers have shown themselves to be talented but highly inconsistent this season, and undisciplined, after a  6-1 start  went  just 3-3 at the finish line , and were smashed in their conference championship game by DDs vs an explosive FAU side.  However, UAB coach Clark’s has proven before that he can engineer a quick bounce back off defeat as is evident by a  12-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS record in his career. Clark is 8-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival as the coach of UAB. 

 Blazers really need a good showing here after that above mentioned debacle in the CUSA championship game. This is a chance to do it by hanging tough against a ranked Appalachian State side, that despite of a great season,  are getting a very average Bowl show case that might not have them very excited to play in. Note: This also an easy trip for UAB fans so Im betting the majority of the crowd will be backing the Blazers, which will buoy their chances here two fold. 

CFB  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a good team (60% to 80%). are 31-63 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UAB to cover 

Boise State has averaged 39.7 ppg on offence when travelling this season, and Im betting they do a fair amount of damage here today vs a downtrodden Huskies side, that had expected better results this season. Meanwhile, Washington in 9 games played on turf this season have averaged 34 ppg and have enough offensive weapons to answer back against the Broncos.  BOISE ST is 10-0 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with a combined average of 76.3 ppg scored. Harsin is 12-4 OVER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of BOISE ST with the combined average score of 70.1 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

  Lane Kiffin has left the Florida Atlantic sidelines   but things are looking up as    Willie Taggart is about to take over. Add to that a new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer stepping in for this game and  the Owls look like a football program with upside, and the ability to upend SMU here today. You have to remember, that FAU owns a big play attack with  and with SMU secondary  giving up 285 yards per game their vulnerable to be nipped here for big yards , gains and subsequent scores. on the flip side, Im betting the Mustangs will have problems running the ball vs a Owls team that have allowed fewer than 100 yards in five of their last ten games. If SMU cant run the ball, their passing game will be easier to read, and problems will arise as this tilt goes on. 

SMU is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-9 ATS  in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.

FLA ATLANTIC is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Florida Atlantic to cover 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

 C.Michigan have scored 45 or more points in 3 of their L/5 games, and despite of playing a very strong D here today, Im betting they will do enough damage to get this combined score over the total. Meanwhile, San Diego State despite of not being a strong offensive team, will also have to open up here a bit today , because as I mentioned above their going to get pierced for points more than usual. If Central Michigan has a weakness its this D, which is allowing 34. 8 ppg on the road. 

C MICHIGAN in their L/6  vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season with a  combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning are 38-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

Central Michigan comes into the New Mexico Bowl featuring a multi dimensional  offense. Chippewas running back Jonathan Ward has rushed for 1,082 yards along with hefty 6.2 yards per carry. His 15 touchdown runs rank third in the MAC. Meanwhile, Quarterback Quinten Dormady, a transfer from Tennessee, finished the regular season looked like a gunslinger. He completed 71 % or more of his pass attempts in the final three games leading into the MAC championship game, effectively spreading the ball among a number of pass-catchers. Im betting this group will test San Diego State sturdy D, alot more than recent opponents and make life difficult for a team that will be in an uncomfortable situation of having to open up . 

HC Rocky Long is just 4-9 ATS in his career in Bowl Games. 

C MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

 Two red hot  offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th.  The Buccaneers  have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of  61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored.

The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight  away  tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are  6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. 

Play OVER 

The Celebration Bowl is one of the most competitive bowl games on the schedule each year. Each Celebration Bowl has been decided by a touchdown or less. Last year the North Carolina A&T Aggies snuck past  Alcorn State Braves by the slimmest of margins  24-22. Looking at both teams numbers, from this season suggest both possesses balanced defences and offences and matchup well against each other in a game that should be a pickem, thus getting points makes for a solid wager according to my projections. 

Play on Alcorn State to cover 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Im betting on  a ok corral type blastem up offensive gunfight here in Texas this Friday between two teams with alot of offensive fire power capabilities. 

Utah State junior quarterback Jordan Love after passing for 8,283 yards and 57 touchdowns in three seasons with the Aggies, will be ready to showcase his talents for the upcoming NFL draft. QUOTE:"Knowing that it's my last game here as an Aggie, wearing that uniform, it's really important for me to just go out there and ball out," Love said, "and have fun with my brothers this last time." END QUOTE. Love has completed 263-of-434 passes for 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns this season and more of the same is on tap today vs a Kent State team allowing more than 34.6 ppg away from home this season. Meanwhile, duel threat Kent State QB Junior quarterback Dustin Crum led the Golden Flashes in passing and rushing, throwing for 2,336 yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for 560 yards and five more scores and will once again Im betting take advantage of a Aggies D, that is less than strong allowing 31 + ppg on the road this season. With that said,  I expect both sides to surpass their offensive and defensive averages this season in an entertaining free for all offensive slugfest.  

Lewis in 9 games when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of KENT ST has seen a combined average of 66.9 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (UTAH ST/KENT ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 44-16 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

CUSA’s record of 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS versus MAC opponents in Bowl games has me looking directly at a up trending Charlotte football program as viable underdogs here today in this Bowl game. Don't get me wrong Buffalo is a fine team and were 7-5 on the season, but they were far from perfect and periodically fell asleep at the proverbial wheel. Meanwhile, their opponents today the niners, finished their season in over powering fashion, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 5-0 ITS and deserve respect here getting points. It must also be noted that Buffalo Bulls , HC  Leipold  is bankroll depleting  0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS away vs a above .500 team like Charlotte. 

BUFFALO is 2-14 ATS L/16 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHARLOTTE) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 38-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

New Orleans took part in a run and gun dog fight last week vs San Francisco that they lost and now Im betting they will be in a bit of emotional let down state and due for regression. Actually the Saints have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 since Drew Bree's returned from injury, and definitely have some defensive issues at the worst possible time. Tonight they go against a motivated and desperate Indy side looking for a play off spot , that has the ability to score in bunches  which makes getting points a viable investment option with he visiting underdog.  Note: New Orleans is just 0-7 ATS L/7 when coming off a home loss and laying more than 7 points. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Indianapolis is 9-0 ATS  L/9 against .500 or better  NFC opposition. Saints are 0-6 ATS L/6  as non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points and 1-10 ATS at home taking on  AFC  foes. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 24-5 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indy Colts to cover 

The Bills are bruised and battered after a very physical game against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and Im betting they won't have enough left in the tank to significantly compete here against a another smash mouth type of team in Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh has won 6 of the L/7 meetings here at home in this series and get the nod again. 

The Bills are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 20.7 ppg. 

NFL Road teams (BUFFALO) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 265-375 ATS dating back 37 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg  going on the scoreboard in their  L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a   Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg .

The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona  team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said,    I expect both teams to do  fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting  goes over the total. 

The Cards will playing their  2nd game straight game  vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd  of back-to-back  non conference games are 13-0 OVER. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on OVER 

The Chargers are starting to wake up from a season long slumber and are  off a dominating 45-10 win last week vs the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile,  visiting Minnesota despite of being consistent on the in the W/L column have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 overall and are not living up to the linesmakers expectations and vulnerable here to a desperate team with a chip on their shoulders. 

The Chargers are 15-0 ATS /12-3 SU L/15 as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

MINNESOTA is 5-18 ATS L/23 in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite.

Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs. The home team has won the past five in the series.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 40-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover 

The Browns were  recently starting to turn a corner towards respectability . But that ended last week when despite of winning  they lost the stats battle to Cincinnati by more than 188 yards. That is truly unacceptable, and now the inconsistent Browns  travel out west to play a under rated Arizona team with a good looking young QB in Murray under centre. The kicker is that the Browns are 3 point road favs, which is not an optimal line to cover for this type of undisciplined  unorganized  team that takes a boatload full of penalties on a weekly basis . Note: The Browns are 0-4 ATS/SU  L/4 on the road.

  The Cardinals are 21-0 ATS /19-2 SU at home when their line is between a three-point favorite and a five-point dog inclusive when they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games and they did not have more than 31 minutes of possession time in their last game.

The Cardinals are 17-4 SU and 20-0-1 ATS as hosts  off a non-division tilt when facing an opponent coming off a win of 8 or more points.

The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU on grass off a loss by more than a field goal when the line is within three of pick and they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games.

Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover

Green Bay Packers are very over rated in their current form even though they hold down the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC.  Believe it or not the Packers have  lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games and now go against a Chicago side that has won 4 of their L/5 and coming into their own now as they season winds down.

 Earlier this season the Bears lost to the Packers by a 10-3 count,(despite of winning the stats battle) but now in revenge mode in their best form this season, Im betting on the Bears to bring home the cash as underdogs.   The Bears are 5-0 SUATS with a winning record in division games with  QB Mitchell Trubisky under center.

NFLvUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a  71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Seahawks lost RB Rashaad Penny for the season with a knee injury suffered in last week’s defeat, and will not have the same offensive flow without him in the lineup. Considering the Seahawks D, is ranked No. 26 in the league in overall  there could easily be issues fr them covering today. 

CAROLINA is 21-9 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game. 

The Panthers are 12-0 ATS L/12  as a dog off a road SU and ATS loss.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The mighty Ravens played a pretty good defence last week vs the Buffalo Bills and still were able to notch 24 points. I know that was a hard fought game and LeMar Jackson is experiencing some quad problems, but he is still set to to go , and extremely dangerous from a offensive standpoint. I know the Ravens have a couple big games to finish off this season, and some might think they are over looking the Jets. However , Harbaughs team has been full tilt since the preseason, and Im betting they bring it here tonight again and really light up the scoreboard for a national audience. They just don't lighten up, and that has me on the over. 

Note: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robby Anderson are establishing a solid connection late in the season for a second straight year and Im betting they do more damage offensively than many might expect , which also help us cash an over wager here this evening. 

Ravens are 6-1 OVER L/7 vs AFC East and have gone over 5 of 6 times in Thursday nighter  vs non-division opposition. 

Play OVER 

The Philadelphia Eagles  are now desperate to stop a three-game losing streak  vs a  quarterback in Eli Manning that  hasn't played in three months and hasn't defeated them in three years.Manning is 10-20 SU against Philadelphia in his career and the Eagles have now won 9 of the  L/10 meetings overall, and are 8-1 ATS L/9 on Mondays at home vs division opposition. The Eagles are not only in need of  a win here but they are in redemption mode for a embarrassing  37-31 loss to Miami last time out, despite of previously  holding opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games and allowing fewer than 225 yards passing in five consecutive games. Falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a side that they should have handily beaten was almost unforgivable and the entire Eagles team should be motivated in this national spot light affair. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Seahawks  are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias   Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who  threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense.  I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they  have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season.  When these lines opened over the summer   the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. 

 LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a  away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias,  as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles  and have  given  up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road.  Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side.

Tennessee  as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are  0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents  coming off a loss.

NFL  team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates.

Play on Oakland to cover 

The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and  the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent  QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents  coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. 

The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite.

NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover 

Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but  the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. 

NFL Home teams  (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. 

NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover 

These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging  20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19  ppg in their L/6 overall tilts.  In their most  recent  five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. 

CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately.  Note:  The Colts are 14-0 ATS  L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. 
  
 The  Bucaneers  are 0-16 ATS when they are not a FG-plus dog and they are off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and converted four-plus third downs.  

INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons

TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18  ATS against AFC South division opponents .

The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. 

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - LUCAS OIL STADIUM - INDIANAPOLIS, IN

Ohio State (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) leads the nation in points per game (49.9) and there maybe only one other team in the nation that can slow down this incredible offensive juggernaut and Wisconsin is not that team. With that said, I look for Wisconsin to try to reply with as much fire power through the air as they can muster, because running against one of the nations nastiest front 7 is a night mare, as was the case for star Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor in two previous encounters vs the Buckeyes including one this season when they lost 38-7. No way I can see them repeating that mistake as their only chance at victory is moving the ball downfield via their aerial attack, which in turn will open this game up and easily help it eclipse this total. 

 OHIO ST is 11-2 OVER  in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 67.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC

Clemson Im betting will do their part here today, behind an explosive offence that averages 45.2 ppg.On the flip side,  I know Clemson has allowed only six touchdown passes all season but what is  important here in factoring in Virginias offensive production is that the Tigers have  not faced a dual threat quite like UVA senior quarterback Bryce Perkins, who leads the ACC and ranks 13th nationally in total offense (3,636 yards). He was responsible for 475 of the Cavaliers' 492 yards against the Hokies when he played them, and has the ability to make Clemsons D work harder than usual. 

Note: CLEMSON in their L/14 tilts vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons have scored average of 44.6 ppg. Meanwhile   CLEMSON L/140 games when they score 28 or more points have seen a combined average of 60 ppg go on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CLEMSON) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 25-7 OVER  L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

The Tigers closed -14   against Cincinnati in their meeting last week, and despite of not covering looked like the far superior side. Now on a single digit line their is value with the favorite in the rematch. I know quarterback Desmond Ridder is back for the Bearcats but he was highly erratic in recent starts and is still dealing with a shoulder injury that is less than 100% healed. I must also be noted that Cincinnati has lost the stats battles in 8 of their 12 games this season , including 1-7 ITS the last eight overall tilts and over rated in my humble opinion at this juncture of the season. Note: MEMPHIS is 10-2 ATS L/12 in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX

No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12 play) and No. 7 Baylor (11-1, 8-1) will square off for all the marbles on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas in a game I have pegged to be all out offensive rodeo affair.  I know Baylor is a top tier defensive side, but the Sooners can score on any team with a rapid fire run and gun offence that features the  Big 12's top scoring offense (44.3 points per game; No. 5 nationally)   The Sooners also rank first in the country in total offense (564.3 yards per game). To beat the Sooners Baylor is thus going to have to open up and respond with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the field. The Bears can do that vs a Sooner D, that ha shown some weaknesses this season, as was the case vs Iowa State allowing 41 points and Kstate allowing 48 points in their game against Baylor 31 points in a game that saw 65 totals points scored.

OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 85.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

 When these teams met earlier this season in Waco the Bears built a  28-3 lead against the Sooners, but blew that lead as the Sooners woke up and won 34-31. Now in this championship game Oklahoma will be fully focused and be ready for this tilt and will be prepared for a fast start and keep the pedal to the proverbial metal from start to finish. The Sooners football program owns a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS mark in big 12 championship games.The  favorite is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine tilts  in this event. Also recently the Sooners are 11-2 ATS  as single-digit chalk.  The Sooners also have the motivation of getting the final and 4th spot in the college football play off, but their victory has to be convincing to beat out a impressive Utah side and will be merciless here if up.

CFB team (BAYLOR) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 37-78 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

 Billy Napier, UL Lafayette is a highly under rated team and from a bettors perspective an ATN machine cashing   18 of 25 times for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. I know App State is nationally ranked side, but when these teams played earlier this season the Cajuns stayed with them almost every step of the way and the 17-7 ,  10 point margin of victory for the Mountaineers was a little misleading. Since that above mentioned loss to App State , the Cajuns have reeled off 6 straight wins and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash a ticket for us today on what is now a bloated line according to my projections. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 ATS  after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games which was the case last time out vs UL Monroe. 

APPALACHIAN ST is 4-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight conference games.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

Dallas is. strange team, as they are only 6-6 on the season, but rank high in both offence and defensive numbers, and have out-gained all their opponents but one this season. This team just does not know how to win consistently and can't be trusted to come out here and perform at a high level as road chalk vs a Bears team finally starting to up trend with 3 wins in their L/4 games. Value resides with the home dog. 

Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.Cowboys are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 14.

Garrett is 8-18 ATS  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Scoring has been a big an issue for New England of late, and I personally believe Tom Brady is starting to show regression with age as his 79.3 passer rating over the last 3 games gives testament to. Yes, the D, remains solid and the future HOF has as usual given the Pats just enough omph to get them Ws, However, tonight against young gun QB Deshaun Watson who is  10-4-1 ATS overall as a dog, including 8-2 ATS as a dog of more then 2 points  in his career , the Pats are in trouble.  

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texans to cover

Two struggling teams go head to head here this week in the Mile High City.  With Father Time taking its toll on  QB Philip Rivers  the Chargers are no longer an optimal force and are getting to much respect here.Note: Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games, the worst slump of his 16-year career.

I know the Chargers are off a bye week but this has not been a recipe for success for them in a while as they are  1-8 ATS  L/9 with rest.   This is a bet against the Chargers and not really a bet for the Broncos. However, from a mathematical standpoint this is value line for a desperate home dog. Advantage Denver.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Rams were blasted by the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night and will come into this game against the Cardinals feeling downtrodden. Im sure the natural inclination of most bettors would be to back the Rams after that ugly effort but the Cardinals are no pushovers and just wont lie down and die . Take the points. 

LA RAMS are 5-17 ATS L/22  after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

The Titans  lost a  19-17 home game to the Colts during the 2nd week of the season.  This return matchup  has big time play off implications attached to it for both clubs as they currently rank No. 8 (Indianapolis) and No.9 (Tennessee) in  playoff seeding. This will of course be a hard fought game, but Indianapolis has better overall numbers and are playing at home . The Colts have also owned this series covering 6 of the L/7 overall meetings.

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

TENNESSEE is 12-31 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 26-2 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at  +10.2 ppg.

Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover

 Cincinnati  QB Andy Dalton  is expected to start for the Bengals this Sunday which will boost their chances at a cover and possible outright win vs a over rated NY Jets team that is getting to much respect  thanks to a recency bias based on a 3 game win streak .  It must be noted that NFL winless sides like Cincinnati  have covered 14 of 19 ATS during the second half of the season dating back 37 seasons when facing opposition coming off consecutive SUATS wins. Also Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton   as a non-division underdog is  7-1 ATS against AFC East opposition  coming off a victory, including 5-0 SUATS at home. Daltons is also  20-10-1 ATS in December in his NFL career, including 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS versus non-AFC North opponents. 

NY JETS are 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

NY JETS are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

 NFL team (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 18-42 ATS L/37 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

Green Bays D looked bad last week when they allowed 37 points to the 49ers in a loss. It must be noted that Game 15 or  less conference chalk who allowed 35+ points on the road last week like Green Bay did are  1-16 UNDER L/4 seasons when the Total is listed at  49 points or less. Im betting last weeks ugly defensive effort was an anomaly and that the Packers concentrate on shoring up their defence vs a rookie signal caller and a team averaging just 19.7 ppg on offence this season. 

Meanwhile, the Packers offence also struggled, as Rodgers was sacked five times on Sunday night. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his right knee and left the game. Alex Light replaced him but struggled. so offensive line issues could once again make things tough on Rodgers here in NY vs the Gmen this Sunday. This limiting GBs offensive output. 

Both these teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in offence and today Im betting we see why. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - with a terrible passing D - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Last weeks loss by  Philly to Seattle was nasty and the entire Eagles nation felt embarrassed as they lost 17-9 at home in inclement weather .  Quarterback Carson Wentz continued his upside down circus act by  being intercepted twice  and  tripping all over the place while giving up  two fumbles . It hard to want to back the Eagles after that disgraceful effort, but this team still has pride, and need redemption quickly if Pederson hopes to retain his  HC.job. Im betting on the Eagles coming out here and beating up on a Dolphins team that is still in tank mode. 

The Fins defense  is ranked 31st against the run (148.2 yards per game), 31st overall (400.9) and last in points allowed per game (31.5).

The  Eagles are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS away after scoring 10 or fewer points in its last game.  

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Jaguars got blasted last week by a 42-20 count at Tennessee. However is must be noted Jacksonville is 0-5 UNDER aft division road tilt and 1-7 L/8  UNDER after allowing  35 or more. pts . I know that this week they go against an explosive TB offence, but it must also be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  just 30 ppg going on the board. 

The Jaguars have been crushed on the ground the last three games, allowing more than 200 yards rushing against Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. It was the fourth time in the last seven games an opponent topped 200 yards rushing against Jacksonville, a franchise record. Knowing this Im betting the Bucs will be pounding the ball on the ground alot today, in attempt to exploit the Jags major weakness, which in turn will eat alot of clock time which will effect the overall output of this tilt to the under.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, in December games are 30-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 28-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

UCLA was up-trending until a recent two game road trip settled their season, and bowl chances as they were hammered by USC and Utah in back to back tilts. It must be noted UCLA is 8-19 ATS  after a 2 game road trip since 1992. Now downtrodden and emotionally let down Im betting they dont have much left in the tank to take on a tough California Bears team, that now has their strong signal caller Chase Gerber  back under center. With California needing a win for a Bowl appearance and revenge on their minds for a loss last season to the Bruins as 7 points favs, Im betting a strong motivated  California performance. UCLA is 0-5-1 ATS L/6 final home games. 

Play on California to cover 

Nevada is off a big upset win vs Fresno State on the road last week and have won 3 straight, and now have momentum coming home on senior day vs instate rivals UNLV. The Pack will be primed and motivated to also take the Fremont Cannon. The Wolf Pack have won four of its five games in Mackay Stadium this season,   including a win vs Big 10 opponent  Purdue by a  34-31, count, and a very viable team to back here this Saturday. 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (NEVADA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 33-1 L/27 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +25 ppg. 

Nevada to cover 

Rice has won 2 straight games entering this tilt, and have momentum and confidence on their sides. I know Rice struggled for most of the season, but during their campaign they have shown flashes of brilliance and were up-trending in my power rankings and deserve their road favrote status here today. UTEP is 2-9 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.6 ppg. 

CFB Road favorites  (RICE) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-1  L/5 seasons and 15-0 SU this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg, 

Play on Rice to cover 

New Mexico State is a team that has not won on the road yet this season, and have been outscored by a 123-48 count in their L/3 away tilts. Today  Im betting they get clobbered again vs an explosive up-trending Liberty football program putting more than 35 ppg on the board this season. Note: NM St has allowed more than 40 ppg on average. 

NEW MEXICO ST is 4-15 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is 2-10 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. with the average ppg diff clicking in at -29.5 ppg.

CFB Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-10 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover 

Since losing  QB Sean Chambers for the season, the Cowboys justdont have much offensive flow they need to be competitive .  Their D, remains stout, but against a team like Air Force that can put points on the board against the best of Ds. their in trouble. 

Calhoun is 7-0 ATS  in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry as the coach of AIR FORCE. 

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AIR FORCE) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Air Force to cover  

Michigan finally looks prepared to move forward and get a win vs unbeaten Ohio State  this week as underdogs behind the arm of Shea Patterson and a defence that is playing its best football of the season. I know the Buckeyes have won 7 straight meetings in this series, but after watching Michigan play some amazing football of late, including last weeks DD blowout of Indiana  Michigan looks  very capable. Last year Ohio State humiliated , the Wolverines in a 62-39 smash down and now revenge is also in play.  Note: The under dog  is 5-1 ATS  last 6 meetings, and HC  Jim Harbaugh is 5-0-1 ATS as a Big Ten circuit getting points at home  of more than 5 points, and has cashed  in 5 of his L/6 with conference revenge.It must also noted that  undefeated road chalk in their final game of the campaign has won just 5 of 16 tilts  SU and are just  3-13 ATS when facing .700 or greater opposition. 

MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB  Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 38-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Michigan to cover

Lovie Smith has done a fine job with Illinois , but with his top QB Brandon Peters injured or less than 100% which put the team at a disadvantage. Peters started 10 of the 11 games. Look for Northwestern dominating front 7 to the work needed to slow Illinois and for us to get the cover .

NORTHWESTERN is 22-10 ATS L/32 in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.

ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Northwestern has won 4 straight meetings, and have owned the Land of Lincoln trophy and wont relinquish it without a fight.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 57-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover

The battle of I-4 goes this Friday between instate rivals UCF and USF. Charlie Strongs Bulls wont be going Bowling this season,so this esentially is their big game of the campaign, and Im betting they will muster a way to stay competetive and get the cover against a a good but defensively challenged Knights side that allows more than 28 ppg. 

S FLORIDA is 18-6 ATS L/24  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.S FLORIDA is 16-4 ATS L/20  after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half.Strong is 22-5 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (S FLORIDA) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 102 -57 L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on South Florida to cover

Troy looked horrendous last week, in a 53-3 loss vs UL Lafayette on the road and was most probably in a look ahead situation knowing App State was up next and also regressing after some record setting offensive performances. This Friday however, Im looking on a giant bounce back effort, behind the arm of .QB Kaleb Barker  who was held without a touchdown pass for the first time this season in the Louisiana game.