Cappers Sports Picks

Yes, QB Tom Brady maybe the greatest NFL QB of our generation, and maybe of all time and his HC Bellichck one of the top coaching minds in all of football. But Im still going to pull the trigger on the unthinkable, and go with the Rams here this week at a +FG. Yes, even  despite of  watching Tom Terrific put on another dramatic show stopper a couple of weeks ago in the championship game to get the Pats to yet another Super Bowl. I also know how fortunate the Rams are to be here thanks in part to a blown call.  However, I still feel that Brady and his side kick Gronkowski have slowed down enough to not be as intimidating as they once were, and that the Pats D, is very beatable, as was the case in last seasons Super Bowl vs Philadelphia. Plus the Rams greater body of work this season, was actually superior to that of the Pats, and many at the start of this season including myself saw this LA team as a big time Super Bowl contender and deserving champs behind a deep talented team on both sides of the ball. So here we are and Im not going to waver here in my opinion, and will take a direct stance taking points with the underdog this Super Bowl Sunday in a neutral field environment. Hey its never easy going against the tide of early money, but it must be noted that the underdog has covered 9 of the L/11 Super Bowls and won 8 of those straight up. Im looking for recent history to repeat itself here as I go against the early money. 

The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The Patriots have  averaged just 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only ranking behind  the Oakland Raiders .

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs. 

In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week.

Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS  in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season! 

Play on New England to cover 

 Future HOF QB Tom Brady,  , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game  and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. 

 Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25  or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.

Play on the OVER 

 NFC Championship Game

The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going  14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay,  dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints.  The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg,  while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points.  With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly  pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number. 

This  championship  round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the  2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better  PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rams to cover 

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final  regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall  again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting. 

Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch. 

NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia  are 0-27-1 UNDER  by an average  9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

NE super star future HOF QB Brady is 19-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 11-1 SU and Divisional Round tilts, and Im betting he gets another win here vs the Chargers here this Sunday afternoon in Fox-borough. He has also won all 7 meetings SU vs Rivers, and must not be underestimated  despite of the aging process in his ability to lead his team to a convincing victory here again at home and get us the cover. Note: Brady is 10-0-1 ATS in playoff victories when not favored by more than 6 points. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-26 L/35 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

New England to cover 

The Colts enter this game extremely underrated according to my matchup stats and power rankings, and this is evident by winning the stats battles 13 of their L/14 games overall. However, the books are playing to public sentiment knowing how much the public loves the Chiefs and their style of play, and have posted a over valued line on the board that favours the Colts in my humble opinion. It must be noted that the Chiefs did not play all that well down the stretch  covering only once in their L/5 overall and have a history of ugly play off performances losing 8 straight ATS at home including 6 straight SU here at Arrowhead. With the Colts Andrew Luck 2-0 SU at Arrowhead in his career is every bit as good as Chiefs QB  Patrick Mahomes and more experienced ,I expect a  Colts team that is 7-1 SU/ATS here in this venue  to have an  edge getting points . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama and Clemson can score against the best of defences, behind two of college football best QBs, Trevor Lawrence of the Tigers and the Crimson Tides Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, both these football teams  have top tier defences, but unlike last season Alabama's 24-6 victory vs the Tigers in the play offs last season, this time around Im betting the points will come fast and furious between these two behemoth opponents. ***( Field conditions are expected to be  good here in Santa Clara with all new turf in place)

Clemson has averaged 44.3 ppg on offence this season while Alabama has averaged 47.7 ppg.

ALABAMA is 7-0 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 this season with a. combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

HC Swinney  in his L/19 road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of CLEMSON has seen a combined average of 64.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama has gone 14-0 SU against the nation's No. 23 schedule while Clemson' is 14-0 record has come against the nation's No. 32-ranked schedule  Alabama has won 16 straight tilts  while Clemson has won 14 in-a-row. According to my data, and power rankings these teams are evenly matched from an overall perspective and Im betting the points will be golden here in the National Championship game. 

ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 rushing or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.Swinney is 11-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of CLEMSON. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 38-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Philadelphia Eagles had to over come alot of struggles this season, to have a chance to defend their super bowl title and make it to the play offs. But now a new season begins here in the play offs vs a public sweet heart that has a lineup filled with players that generally has very little post season NFL experience. I know the Bears had a tremendous season, but under pressure vs a side that knows how to win big games  Im betting they are in trouble. Public money poured in on the Bears from the out set of the opening line, but sharp money has stormed back behind the Eagles and with that  I recommend we take the points here. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Ravens league leading defence matches up well vs the Chargers offence as was evident only two weeks when they beat the Chargers in LA by a 22-10 count. After some early public  money came in on the Chargers the line sits at around 2.5 and is a viable option if we are backing Baltimore at home where they are 6-2 this season. 

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road this season.

Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or more  TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 54-5 SU L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-8 ATSL/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

 Seattles HC Pete Carroll always gets my respect, and in a key game like this Im betting his football knowledge and coaching abilities will help his hard nosed blue collar group come out on top and more importantly get us the cover vs a inconsistent Dallas crew. 

Dallas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 37-23 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. HC Garrett is 28-40 ATS in home games as the coach of DALLAS.Garrett is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. 

SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season and is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - mistake-free team (1.25  or lessTO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Houstons strength is stopping the run, but teams that can pass like the Colts are a more difficult type of opponent for the Texans. In the last meeting between these teams, Houston couldn't slow down Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton had nine receptions for 199 yards, and Luck passed for 399 yards and two TDs in Indy's 24-21 win in Houston. A repeat type performance is not out of the question here and actually a high probability outcome according to my projections. 

HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

O'Brien is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of HOUSTON.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 42-6 SU L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 this season! 

Play on the Indianapolis to cover 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

Washington is a defence first team that will try to grind this clock down n methodical fashion vs an explosive Ohio State football team. Im betting they have enough success eating clock time to help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

Washington's HC Petersen is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games

WASHINGTON is 7-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 38.3 ppg. 

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games 35-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (WASHINGTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 39-12 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

FIESTA BOWL - State Farm Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

UCF has won 25 straight games, and what Im betting  to happen here is that despite of them going against a very strong SEC team, without their starting QB McKenzie Milton, they wont go down without a fight . Look for highly talented backup Darriel Mack who led his team to a 56-41 come from behind victory vs Memphis in the season finale to lead this team again, and for this very athletic and deep UCF group to get us the cover . With almost a month to prepare for the Bayou Tigers, Im very sure the Knights  will be very ready to compete. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are just 13-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCF to cover 

Kentucky plays a less conservative style of football in non non conference games, and have gone over 4 straight times vs non conference opponents and Im betting they open up here a bit this Tuesday and a game that Im betting will go over the total. 

Penn States HC Franklin is 9-1 OVER in games played on a neutral field in all games he has coached with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Nittany Lions last 5 non-conference games.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 neutral site games.Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 10-3 in Nittany Lions last 13 games following a straight up win.Over is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 20-7 in Nittany Lions last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games following a ATS win.Over is 13-6 in Nittany Lions last 19 games overall.

PENN ST is 9-1 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 66.6 ppg. PENN ST is 10-0 OVER  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.2 ppg. PENN ST is 6-0 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 58.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KENTUCKY/PENN ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 29-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

TAXSLAYER BOWL - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Aggies are a physical team that can both run the ball well, and stop opposing run games. Im betting they make NC State one dimensional via the pass, which will make them easier to read. Meanwhile,  they themselves will pound the ball relentlessly on the ground, which will make for fast game that eats clock and keeps the total combined score on the low side of the number. 

NC STATE is 11-2 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NC STATE) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 77-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TEXAS A&M) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 42-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

HOLIDAY BOWL - SDCCU Stadium - San Diego, CA

The Northwestern offense, has struggled at times this season, but they are still capable doing some damage here vs a top tier D.  Northwestern Im betting will have a lot more 3 and outs then first downs and will spend alot of time on the field defending a underrated Utah offence that has proved explosive at times this season, scoring more than 40 points 4 straight times, at one juncture of the season while averaging 37.7 ppg over a 8 game stretch. With that said, my projections estimate that the Utes put upwards of 30 points on the board, while Northwestern hits in the low 20s , in a game I have pegged to exceed the total. 

HC Whittingham in 18 games  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 61.1 ppg were scored and I his L/29 games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread has seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored

.Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

This total has been bet up since its opening with sharp money but still holds value even at this number to the over according to my own projections. 

Missouri is an explosive offensive side having averaged 36.9 ppg this season, while Oklahoma State has averaged 38.4 ppg.  Both defences have been less than spectacular with OK St allowing 34.6 ppg on the road, while Missouri has allowed 29.4 ppg. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.2 ppg scored and is 8-1 OVER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 77.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

We all know the Big 12 is all about offence, but when it counts there are teams like Oklahoma State that can be counted upon to make key stops. What Im betting here today is for the Cowboys to go toe toe and punch for punch with Missouri offensively, but in key junctures of the game to show their ability to stand tall. You have to remember Oklahoma State took on some extremely explosive offenses in Big 12 action  (ie Oklahoma ) and stood tall, losing by just one point 48-47 count, and have the capabilities to not only cover here but pull off the upset as more than TD dog. 

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game 

MISSOURI is 3-12 ATS  in December games since 1992.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

REDBOX BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Michigan State has shown a propensity to not to be able to the move the chains consistently against any team  for most of this season. Their games are ugly in the trenches affairs, and the Spartans are like vultures just waiting around for fumbles and turnovers in an effort to try to find the end zone. Im betting the trend continues and Oregon musters out a win vs my nomination for  the Ugly Betty football team of the year. 

MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and  10-28 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 

OREGON is 30-9 ATS  L/39 after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half and  20-8 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

Pitt found its identity in a bruising rushing attack that leaned on the explosiveness of senior running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall and nothing will change today as they will move the chains via their ground attack and eat up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, Stanford is a one dimensional team that throws the majority of the time, and among all 129 FBS teams, only Washington State had fewer rushing attempts this season than Stanford. With no Bryce Love in the lineup today, as he sits out preparing for a NFL career, the Cardinal will be easy to read and their ability to go vertical will be a challenge, as well as getting points on the board.With that said, Im betting on this combined score not to eclipse this total. 


PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 14-4 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.2 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

STANFORD is 19-8 UNDER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a . combined average of 47 ppg scored.



CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 40-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 46.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER ( Late Steam)

This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  and their hosts the  Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides.

 Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his  Week 16 win vs Washington with a  nagging  neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and  if  his  below average backup Blaine Gabbert  gets the call.Either way   Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow.  

 The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a  team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50,   they have gone under 14-straight straight times .

INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles need to win and they need the Bears to beat the Vikings to get into the playoffs. Needless to say, the Eagles need only worry about taking care of their business, here. However, Im betting Washington will not be so willing a participant in letting the Eagles get a free pass in  their home finale and will cherish the opportunity to play spoilers vs the defending Super Bowl champs. . The Eagles have struggled as visitors   this season overall  as they are just 3-4 on the road, with the average point differential clicking in at -3.2. Eagles 23.1 Opp 26.3. Im recommending we go on the take .

Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.

WASHINGTON is 17-3 ATS L/20 versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6 or less yards/play in the second half of the season.

WASHINGTON is 22-6 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. 

 PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Oklahoma has a record-setting quarterback too, in Kyler Murray. The Sooners led the FBS in scoring offense with 49.5 points per game and are capable of lighting up anyone including this tough Alabama D. Oklahoma, however, ranked No. 96 in scoring defense (32.4). With the Tie equally explosive in my humble opinion, the only way the  Sooners  have any chance of winning or being competitive in  this tilt is for this to be a shootout. Which Im betting it will be.  Both Alabama and Oklahomas QBs do a lot of damage right out of the gate. Tagovailoa, has a 207.3 passer rating with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in the first half and Murray,   has also been  explosive in the first half, this season with a 215.2 passer rating, 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, ranked No. 13 in red zone offense and scored 42 touchdowns in 63 visits. Alabama scored 48 touchdowns in 68 red zone visits. This has the making of an epic high scoring battle, and the total is not high enough. 

OKLAHOMA is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 95.5 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 105.6 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA is 21-9 OVER L/30 when the total is greater than or equal to 70   with a combined average of 83.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Red Wolves completed the 2018 regular season with an 8-4 overall record and as the Sun Belt Conference West Division co-champions.Nevada completed its regular season with a 7-5 overall record and finished tied for second in the Mountain West Conference’s West Division. My cross reference power rankings suggest that Arkansas State has the edge. 

 ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas State to cover 

CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

West Virginia quarterback Will Grier will not participate in the Camping World Bowl against Syracuse as he begins preparing for the 2019 NFL draft. Thus we have a situation where Im betting this total is just to high. 

SYRACUSE is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons, which happened in their last game of the reg season.SYRACUSE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games in games. 

Play UNDER 

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

Purdue got some very good news when Jeff Brohm turned down Louisville and stayed at Purdue , and he now gets a huge amount of respect from the kids he coaches, and Im now betting they will play hard for him in this tilt against the Tigers. The Purdue offense finished 14th in the country in yards per play at 6.53 and Im betting Auburns pedestrian attack will not be able to keep up. Look for QB David Blough  who  completed 66.6% of his passes, and he threw for 25 touchdowns to shine in this Bowl tilt and lead his team to a cover. 

PURDUE is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Purdue to cover 

This is essentially a home game for Baylor here  in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. With key WR Jalen Hurd out for the Bears, some might think their now not a viable choice here, but they would be mistaken, as the Bears have a couple of options at their disposal and ready to reset their look vs a Vanderbilt D, that has looked atrocious at times this season. 

Baylor HC Rhule is 10-2 ATS in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he ha coached and  29-15 ATS  as an underdog in all games he has coached. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BAYLOR) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 73-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Baylor

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.A year ago, Miami went through the regular season at 10–2 before losing to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl and now revenge is on board. Miami after a mid season swoon,  went on to win its final two regular- season tilts against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in dominating fashion, largely because of its defense that ranks No.2 in the nation in Total D.  With that said, Look for the Badgers passing game to stall vs an impressive Canes secondary and for their key mode of moving the chains RB Johnathon Taylor to find the sledding tough vs a staunch physical D. Meanwhile, Miami will find a way to score enough points here vs a inconsistent Wisconsin D and get us the win and cover. 

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Richt is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Miami fl to cover 

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Both these teams have solid defences, but when they played last year in this Bowl game the Badgers won 34 to 24 vs Miami Fl, and Im expecting a similar scoring output this time around by both sides.

Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a ATS loss.Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 18-7-1 in Badgers last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games in December.

Over is 10-2-1 in Badgers last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MIAMI) - off a win against a conference rival, in December games are 43-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

INDEPENDENCE BOWl - Independence Stadium - Shrevport, LA

Temple has put alot point son the board this season, but Duke's a team that has shown some strong  D ,  and is capable of slowing them. Meanwhile, Duke 's offence has really struggled coming into this game, scoring 6 and 7 points in back to back games and now vs a staunch Temple D, their output Im betting will once again be muted.

DUKE is 7-0 UNDER  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 40 ppg scored and 7-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored and is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 season with a combined average score of 43.3 ppg scored.DUKE is 7-0 UNDER L/7 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

TEMPLE is 16-3 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 44.2 ppg going on the board. 

Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEMPLE) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 39-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

CHEEZ-IT BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Following a seven-win regular season that saw the Golden Bears rank among the best defensive teams in the country, the young men from Berkeley look like the matchup well vs TCU. The Golden Bears won four of their next five games with victories at Oregon State and against Pac-12 champion Washington starting the run and more than capable of upending a  inconsistent  and over rated TCU side. 

Cal has played twice in the game now known as the Cheez-It Bowl with victories in both contests and get the nod again.

TCU  is 12-26 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 3-11 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.TCU is 0-6 ATS with rest or after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

CALIFORNIA is 9-2 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on California to cover 

 QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Georgia Techs option offense that leads the nation in rushing will pound the ball continuously today against.ground today. Meanwhile, Minnesota, via a more traditional run game will also pound the ball on the ground all day . With that said, Im betting this is going to be a very fast Bowl game that eats alot of clock time . This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Johnson is 14-3 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games in December.Under is 6-2 in Golden Gophers last 8 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 6-2 in Yellow Jackets last 8 bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (GEORGIA TECH) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 41-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Its become obvious that KC is a one dimensional team, with an explosive offence and a atrocious porous defence, that is worse than horrible vs opposing ground games allowing 5 ypc. on average. Thats not a good omen against the Seattle team that can run the ball well. The Chiefs are currently down trending after three straight losses including a heart breaking 27-26  defeat to the LA Chargers last Monday night in the final play of the game and don't look like viable favs here in an emotional letdown own spot .  But hey the public money loves Patrick Mahomes, and in some ways I can't blame them, as he is entertaining as heck to watch. But from an imperial standpoint , KC is like a big heavy weight puncher looking for the KO, always leaving them selves open for counter punches and in turn getting knocked out themselves.  Thats why Carroll the ultimate tactician Im betting will take the Chiefs apart little by little here this Sunday evening and then deliver big blows .

Bottom line here Win or lose taking the points here is just the right thing to do , especially since standing in the line with square bettors is not an appetizing prospect. 

Meanwhile, Seattle is a side. that looks much more balanced and a side that plays their best football at home and better prepared ready to bounce back off a hard fought 26-23 loss to a SF team that was hell bent on taking them down in revenge mode. Note: Underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are good long term bets going 38-13 ATS L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion for bettors on the blind. Pete Carroll is also  11-0 SU  when coming off a SU favorite loss and the Seahawks are powerful 11-1 SU  after batting with the Forty Niners, including 5-0 SUATS at home,  and 5-1  ATS as a home dog behind QB Russell Wilson.

SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. Carroll is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Carroll is 22-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Seattle to cover 

Cleveland is up trending but now they're  suddenly a favourite of more than TD against a long time division rival. In my humble opinion, Im betting we have a over reaction to their recent 4-1 SU/ATS run. It is definitely  some tasty bait for a willing public to bite and bet into. At the time of this analysis,   a great deal of square dollars and tickets were backing them this week according to data. Im not saying the sharp money is always right, but more often than not, that's the case , and in this situation I  have no problem fading the public. It must be noted that the last time the Browns were more than 7 point fav was back in the 2010 and that game  they barely got by the Panthers by 1 point. Hey , I know the Browns  are looking good behind emerging star QB Baker Mayfield, and I also know the Bengals have struggled for most of this season, however, this is a  rivalry  game and Im  betting the Bengals with momentum off a  lopsided win last week, won't be giving the Browns a free pass here, and will primed to compete in a revenge scenario for a loss they suffered to them earlier this season, which snapped a 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series.

CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 4-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

The current No. 2 seeds form the AFC, the Houston Texans take on a Eagles team off a big time win vs the LA Rams on the road last week. Nick Foles came off the bench for the defending champs and replaced Wentz, and looked good in the process. But Im betting he will have a hard time replicating that kind of effort here vs a very tough Texans D. It must be noted that Defending Super Bowl champions  as home favorites when coming off a SU underdog win, are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS from Game Fifteen out.

The  Texans if they can secure wins here in the last two weeks of the season, can get a bye, so they will be primed to play, and will not give the Eagles a free ride .

NFL Road teams (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less  TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Texans to cover 

The Dallas Cowboys, were smashed last week by a 23-0 count vs Indianapolis which is not a good omen here as they  are just 1-17 ATS L/18 as home favorites when coming off a SUATS loss. I know the Boyz are loved by the public, but because of that this line is slightly bloated giving us value with a young group that has in the recent past played very well against team like Dallas that can run the ball.  Note: TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. I know the Bucs do not inspire bettors, but they have been competitive of late and  have only failed to cover 1 of their L/5 games. With that said, lets take the points here this Sunday with the visitors. 

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 45-15 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Dolphins are a team that are extremely inconsistent and own a -79 scoring diff margin on the season and were smashed last week in a start to finish demolishing by the Vikings losing by more than 3 TDs. Note:The Dolphins are 0-18 ATS L/18 as a home favorite after a loss in which they never led and  are 0-18 ATS L/18  as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Meanwhile, I know Jacksonville does not inspire bettors, because of their ugly 4-10 record, but their every bit as good as Miami and have a better D and overall have a 64 point positive diff over the Fins and can't be underestimated here as many of the players on the Jags sending a shakeup in the upcoming off season need to sharpen their numbers and stats in preparation for their proverbial  judgement day. Only once in their L/6 games have the Jags lost by more than 4 points and Im betting they stay in the range here today and get the cover.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS  after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games and is 9-25 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games.MIAMI is 47-69 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The Vikings looked good last week in a big win , but I just dont believe you can trust QB Cousins-of the Vikings to be consistent  or to even have good back to back games. . Minnesota is also 0-12 ATS as a favorite in Last Road Games against below .500 competition. Meanwhile, Motown despite of a ugly 5-9 record, have only lost  by more than 7 points just once in their 6 games, and are more than capable of being competitive again here this Sunday.

The Lions are 6-0 ATS L/6, off a loss as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which happened last week. 

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL - Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Buffalo lost the MAC championship in heart breaking fashion vs N.Illinois (30-29) , and Im betting will still be feeling the effects of that  today vs Troy, which will make for a less than spirited effort from the Bulls. I know Buffalo's Tyree Jackson is extremely talented , but the quarterbacks pocket coverage from his line has been shoddy at times this season. In the Bulls’defeat vs Army, Jackson was 10 of 24 for just 152 yards.    Troy is another hard nosed team , that owns the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring defense allowing just  (21.2 points per game) and not allowed any of their last opponents more than 21 points and  Im betting Buffalo struggles to score consistently in this one. Meanwhile, I also expect Buffalos much abused secondary to stand tall here, with a month to prepare for this game and for Troy to end up running the ball alot more than expected as this tilt progresses, helping this score stay on the low side of the Total. 

BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TROY is 10-2 UNDER after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game.

Play UNDER 

Troy plays a strong brand of hard nosed  defensive old school football that Im betting will give Buffalo's some times prolific offence problems.  That was the case when Buffalo lost the MAC Championship to N.Illinois another team that plays a similar type of football to Troy. 

Note: Troy has not allowed more than 21 points in its L/5 games. 

BUFFALO is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

TROY is 8-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

TROY is 7-0 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasonsTROY is 6-0 ATS  in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB team (BUFFALO) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 14-39 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Troy to cover 

ARMED FORCES BOWL - Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

 Army via their triple option can grind away at the clock and will take their time doing it vs an explosive Houston team. This will be an attempt to take the Cougars out of their  offensive flow.  Much in the way the Cadets did vs Oklahoma ( 28-21 loss in OT) .With that said look for and expect a combined score that stays on the low side of the number. ARMY is 12-2 UNDER in road games against American Athletic conference opponents with a combined average of  43.7 ppg going on the board.ARMY is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

BIRMINGHAM BOWL - Legion Field - Birmingham, AL

We all know how many points Memphis can put on the board behind an explosive offence, and how many they can allow behind an atrocious defense. Wake Forest also knows about the freight train coming their way, because their on the proverbial train track as the Tigers come chugging right for them. So what do you do when something like that heads your way. You of course naturally get out of their way and avert them. Thus what Im betting happens here this week, is that the Demon Deacons will implement a run attack that eats this clock up as much as possible as to circumvent the Tigers flow, and throw them out of whack. Being off for almost a month will also see these offenses get out of the gate slowly and for fewer points than expected to go on the board. 

WAKE FOREST is 31-16 UNDER L/47 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER  after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.

key injury updates:[WR] 12/15/2018 - Greg Dortch is "?" Saturday vs Memphis ( Finger )QB] 11/05/2018 - Sam Hartman is out for season ( Leg )

[RB] 12/12/2018 - Darrell Henderson is OUT Saturday vs Wake Forest ( None ) He is Memphis best player and sets up the option well. 

Play on the UNDER 

GASPARILLA BOWL - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

USF struggled in the 2nd half of the season trying to stop the run and Im betting Marshall comes at them with their ground game. Meanwhile,USF  don't run the ball well, which is not a good omen for moving the chains as their  offensive line  should really find the going  tough day against an over powering Herd pass rush. When the MU defensive front is rested and fresh, the sacks come in bunches as was evident this season as they recorded three or more seven times. The Bulls have also allowed 34 sacks on the year. With Marshall expected the run the ball a great deal today and USF struggling to throw or run, points Im betting will be limited in this slower then expected game that eats up clock time in a hurry. 

Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 Bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Thundering Herd last 7 bowl game.

Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games on grass. Under is 9-3 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 home games.Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 Thursday games.Under is 17-7-1 in Bulls last 25 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 21-9-1 in Bulls last 31 games following a straight up loss.

S FLORIDA is 15-4 UNDER  after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored.. 

Play UNDER 

FRISCO BOWL - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Ohio's Frank Solich has an explosive offensive team, but San Diego State despite of 3 consecutive losses to finish out their season are a side that must not be underestimated , especially with HC Rocky Long on the side lines. With that said, in a battle, that will feature the Aztecs’ No. 4 ranked rush defense (95 YPG and 2.7 YPR) and Ohio’s big time rushing offense (262 YPG and 6.1 YPR) I feel a stalemate type of game will be played with the points eventually proving to be golden. 

Long is 9-2 ATS  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450  or more yards/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO ST.SAN DIEGO ST is 11-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points which happened in Hawaii In their last game of the season.

OHIO U is 1-10 ATS   L/11 in road games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Play on SD State to cover 

The Saints came from behind for a win last week vs TB, to clinch their division title, and will now be in a letdown spot. With all the hard fought games that the Saints have won lately, and their overall output not looking as consistent as did earlier in the season, as scouting staffs start to figure out their offence, they don't look like viable favs here on the road in Carolina .  I know the Panthers may not inspire bettors but Ron Rivera's team that has out yarded 4 of their L/5 foes despite of  finding way to lose all 5 tilts. The Panthers are also 11-0 ATS L/11 covering by more than 15 ppg, as a dog off a road loss where they failed to cover. The Panthers are  also 8-0 ATS   as a dog after they made at least 5 third downs last game.  HC Ron Rivera is  8-1 ATS  during December in games when going against opponents coming off a SUATS win, going 8-1 SUATS in his career.

CAROLINA is 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season. HC Payton is 3-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover 

The Saints clinched a division title last week, and  Im betting will now be in a letdown situation that will see their attack muted. Meanwhile, I expect Carolina to play a more grinding clock consuming style of football in an attempt to slow and take the flow away from what has been a dynamic offence this season. This combination of projected occurrences  Im also betting will be responsible for a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

CAROLINA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on he board. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.1 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 road games.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games in Week 15.Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.

  NFL  team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - after a 2 game road trip, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 61-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

This must be very humiliating for a NFL championship team  like the Philadelphia Eagles to be DD underdogs to a LA Rams team that despite of being explosive and respected by the public and pundits a like has still not won anything. Im betting the Eagles are pumped to prove their detractors wrong and to finally show us what made them champs last season, vs a team that already has a play off spot marked on the calendars and have little left to play for and just want to stay healthy .  With that said, it must be noted that defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0 ATS since 1980 as underdogs of more than 9 points and Im betting they will be 4-0 ATS when this final whistle blows here tonight.

Injury update: Wentz is a not a 100% go here this week and if he  does not play, the Eagles will go with Nick Foles, who led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory last season. So either way this game remains a play on situation for the Eagles. 

NFLRoad teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December game are 43-16 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

New England  enters this tilt against struggling Pittsburgh behind future HOF QB Tom Brady  off a loss vs the Dolphins last time out (34-33), as their bad luck vs them was extended thanks to a freak play that saw the Dolphins win on the last play of the game . The Pats are now  just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS  when Brady plays the Fins in Miami .There is a silver lining however, here, as Brady is 25-2 SU overall away during the final month of the season,  and when going against a  below .600 team that does not include the Dolphins he  is a  perfect 17-0 SU.New England is also 23-5 SU off a loss since 2010, including 15-3 SUATS away. With Pittsburghs Big Ben Rothlisberger not completely 100% healthy and showing signs of his advanced age, and the beatings he has taken in his career the Steelers don't look like solid options here. 

Belichick is 7-0 ATS L/7 off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25  or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25  or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-7 ATS L/35 seasons for a 81% conversion  rate for bettors. 

Play on the New England Patriots to cover 

San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but have been competitive at home lately , beating Denver last week, and prior to that pounding Oakland 34-3 and then losing a heart breaker to the up trending NY Giants 27-23. Two weeks ago they were annihilated  on the scoreboard 43-16 by the team their hosting today the Seahawks back in Seattle . Note: Seahawks were however outgunned by 127 yards in that above mentioned tilt so the score was not indicative of the play, and as a matter of fact the Seahawks have managed Ws of late despite of being out yarded in 3 straight tilts. So Pete Carrolls  Seabirds are performing optimally behind a Las Vegas style smoke and mirrors magic show and are not solid road favs here despite of the all the accolades their getting. With revenge on board I now expect the 49ers to make a game of this and get us the cover, vs a side that in my humble opinion is a  over rated public favorite. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 ATS L/35 seasons for a 69% long term conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

 The Cowboys are red hot right now and have won and covered 5 straight, but they are in an emotional letdown spot after a hard fought OT victory vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last time out. and susceptible to being flat in an unfriendly environment.  Thats not a good omen for the Boyz chances this week as  NFL teams coming off a SUATS OT victory are just  13-31-1 ATS the last four seasons, including 6-23 SUATS when  they're not the favorite. Furthermore, Indy QB Andrew Luck is a money QB and owns a  13-4 ATS career mark at home in games against foes with a better record,   The Colts are no pushovers and have won 6 of their L/7 and  deserve to be favoured in this tilt against Americas team , as they are   one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both total offence and total defence. 

DALLAS is 14-30 ATS  L/44 in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 game.

NFL Home favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover 

The Tennessee Titans must win their final three games to have a chance at the AFC's final wild-card spot, starting Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Needless to say the Titans will be aggressive and hell bent on staying alive here vs the Giants today. I know the Omen have been playing well and have won 2 straight, but against a desperate opponent  with the backs up against the wall Im betting they 're  in trouble today. 

NY GIANTS are 7-20 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 

Injury update: NYG Odell Beckham Jr is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Tennessee ( Quad ). 

NFLHome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover 

 CAMELLIA BOWL - Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL

I was little surprised at how this line opened, so I looked as deep  into this bowl game, and found no key injuries or news that would effect it. Georgia Southern is a very good team and own a 9-3 record compared to Eastern Michigan’s 7-5 recored. Yes, Eastern Michigan is a tough under rated team, but despite of being competitive don't have a killer instinct and consistently find ways to lose close games. Meanwhile,  Georgia Southern should have more of their fans here than  E.Michigan, because of the proximity of the location of this football game, and thus have more support in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium. Bottom line:

Georgia Southern is pound the ground type of offence , ranked 9th in the nation ( rush offence ) 260.8 ypg and  have an advantage vs E.Michigans, 93rd ranked rush D that allows an average   4.43 ypc, and 192.9 ypg. The Southern Eagles get my support here on a short line. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

The Texans were on a 9 game win streak heading into last week, and then lost . NFL teams that have won 9 in row in the past and  had their win streak abruptly end have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 followups.  I know  the Jets do not inspire bettors, but with QB Sam Darnold healthy again, and off a win last week, I expect a confident top tier effort from home team today. 

Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

exans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 15.Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in December.

HOUSTON is 9-21 ATS L/30in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 350or more yards/game in the second half of the season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. 

The underdog has covered the L/4 meetings. NYJ are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Game time temp is expected be a frigid 39 degrees this Thursday night in KC with moderate wind that will go across the field and could easily effect the fluidity of this game. The visiting  Chargers Im betting will very vigilant and conservative in their approach vs an explosive KC team here this Thursday night. QUOTE: "I think our guys have to be in tune for (big plays)," Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "Because every play you have to be ready because it could be the one." END QUOTE:  The Chargers learned alot about KCs offence in a. 38-28 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season, and will be better prepared this time around Mahomes and company down. Note: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is well aware of Mahomes' ability. Both of them went to Texas Tech, and Lynn said he had many conversations with former Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury about the 23-year-old. With that said, Im betting we get a much more muted total score than the public might anticipate. 

LA CHARGERS is 10-1 UNDER  vs. sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.2 ppg going on the board.The Chargers  have gone under 8 straight times as a dog off a home game in which they had zero turnovers.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.9 ppg going on the board. 

The Chiefs are 0-12 UNDER since 2016 at home off a win in which they outgained their opponent.KANSAS CITY is 9-0 UNDER  in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored and is 9-1 UNDER  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg. 

The Chiefs  have gone UNDER 16 straight times as a home favorite after they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average last game with the combined average score of 35.2 ppg scored, the highest combined score clicked in at 53, and the lowest at 16 points. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA CHARGERS) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorites are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.

Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The Broncos at press time of this recommended investment option are 6-point favorites on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The line was bet up  squarely from 3.5 on the opener, by public money, but after the rapid upswing in that movement ,sharp bettors came in with their money on the home underdog and rightly so based on line value alone. Despite of the Broncos current 3-0 run and the Niners dismal back to back blowout  losses at the hands of Seattle 43-16 last week and TB the week before 27-9  I still believe that the Niners can bounce back here at home or at least be very competitive. In the 49ers L/2 home efforts before the above mentioned road fiascos they beat up an up-trending Oakland side 34-3 and stayed very close vs a better than advertised NY Giants group 27-23. With that said , Im betting on the disrespected home dog, to stand tall here and get us the cover behind the arm of a improving QB Mullens who has  completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns, and  has also posted a 91.5 passer rating so far this season and must not be underestimated. I am also betting on a SF side that was ranked 10th vs the run before last Sundays tilt vs the Seahawks to rebound this week, and slow the Broncos key mode of moving the chains  running back Phillip Lindsay,

Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 14.Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Play on the 49ers to cover 

Carolina has lost 4 straight games despite of winning the stats battles in the L/3 tilts and  are now .500 on the  season and desperately need a win here this week to have hopes of being in the NFL playoff picture.  This week I expect the Panthers get what they so desperately want, vs a Cleveland team that despite showing promise,  are being out gained  -63 YPG during the 2nd half of the season behind a 30th ranked defense .  note: HC Ron Rivera is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS career mark during the final four games of the season when coming off a loss . Rivera is also 8-0 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of CAROLINA. 

CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - good rushing team (4.5 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 5-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Carolina to cover 

The KC Chiefs are explosive offensively but they have really struggled on D ranking 2nd to last last in the league . Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens own the best defense in the league and a viable enough offence to put a boat load full of points on the board vs this type of porous side. It must also be noted that the Ravens are strong  12-0  ATS L/12 as a underdog on a natural surface when they are playing a team with a better record than them and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs here. Baltimore is also 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.  Chiefs are fun to watch but they have some short comings, and as public favs look week in this spot. Remember despite of  10-2 this season,  5 wins have come vs dregs like  Browns,, Bengals, , Raiders ,Cardinals and 49ers. 

Baltimore has won their L/3 visits to KC and get the nod here again.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured  a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The  Browns are  also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.

Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference  home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted  the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has  completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also  a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having  thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.

GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined  (67.3 ppg ) go on the board. 

Play OVER 

 The public is all over the Saints here this week against the lowly Bucs. But it must be noted from a long term historical trends perspective this type of fav bet is not a very good one as NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less last game , which happened last time  out, are just 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that the Saints are just 3-4 in the stats battles in their L/7 and off a ugly loss to Dallas last week, Im betting we a have a public favourite that Im betting won't live up to expectations here on the road this week in TB a place where Drew Brees and company have lost their last two trips. 

HC Payton is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Bucks are 6-1 ATS L/7 as home dogs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3.

Take the points with the TB Bucs 

Eastern Washington hosts UC Davis on Saturday with a spot in the FCS Playoffs semifinals.These two teams met less than a month ago in a game that saw Eastern emerge with a 59-20 victory. So now theirs an inclination for public bettors to look at the over here as viable wager. In my usual contrarian fashion, I think this total is bloated and that we have value wth an under wager here according to my projections even though both these teams have prolific  offensive attacks. I do expect to see a lot more from the ground game from UC Davis in this rematch as they try to slow E.Washington down. On paper it looks like a shootout, but from a strategy perspective a more muted methodical and targeted effort from both sides won't come as a surprise. 

Play UNDER 

 When Military Football Academies get together to play (Air Force, Navy, Army), points and offence are always lacking in what almost always results in a low scoring game . Its usually a war in the trenches, in what  is a take no prisoners physical confrontation. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE Im betting is on todays agenda. The UNDER is 32-8-1 for a 80% conversion rate since 2006. 

Play UNDER 

KSU has the third-longest active home winning streak in FCS at 15 games and is one of five programs with a winning streak of 10 or more games. QB Chandler Burks has started 36 consecutive games at QB and has led the Owls to a 31-5 (.861) record. He is also 17-1 as the starting QB inside Fifth Third Bank Stadium. If South Dakota State wins here today Im betting it won't come easily.

Take the points with Kennesaw State to cover 

Maine Black Bears visit Weber State on Friday night in a key FCS play off tilt. These are two tough defensive teams. Maine allows 21.6 points per game (Weber State allows 21.0). Weber's rushing attack of Josh Davis and Treshawn Garrett  are a key mode of moving the chains  but will have tough sledding; Maine allows just 74.5 ground yards per contest, second-best in the country, and 295.3 per game overall. Im expecting a very physical affair played in cold temps today, and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

Play UNDER 

Jacksonville is off a 6-0 win vs Indianapolis last time out at home. But whats obvious is that just can't move the chains regularly or put TDs on the board, averaging just 16.9 ppg on the season and with Cody Kessler under centre I doubt if things get much better vs the Titans. Also despite of the Jaguars exhibiting great D, at home this season, on the road they have  proven to have a gridiron split personality allowing 27+ ppg.  Meanwhile, the Titans are also off a win taking out the Jets 26-22 in come from behind fashion, which will have them exuding confidence here this Thursday night.  

The Jags are 1-4 ATS L/5 Thursdays when taking points.Thursday night NFL home teams have won 12 straight times. Titans are 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

Note:The Jags are 0-12 SU/ATS as underdogs during the regular season when coming off a SU underdog win and facing a opposition coming off a victory.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

  Redskins enter this game have lost the stats battles in 4 straight games and enter this game with  backup  QB Colt McCoy   .  McCoy is  just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in division games in his NFL career.. 

Last week the Eagles showed their metal with a come from behind win vs the Giants , and will now use the momentum of that win to get the job done here again this Monday. 

QUOTE: "This was a big game for us," Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz said. "Obviously in terms of the division standings and all that fun stuff, but really mentally to show the resilience that we did. To get down early like we did, then to battle back, just really builds a lot of confidence -- to come from behind and get it done I think will speak volumes about our confidence going forward." END QUOTE: 

Meanwhile, Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a very dependable  7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points and gets my support here as his team plays with sense of urgency. 

Washington has failed to cover 9 of their L/10 Monday nighters. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

The Chargers are hot , as is evident by their 6-1 winning run and their QB Phillip Rivers is off a record setting game last time out. But now Im betting on regression to rear its ugly head, for Rivers, and the Chargers to finally meet their match. It must be noted that all but one of their wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record. The one exception was the victory over Seattle, which is barely over .500 at 6-5. 

The Steelers, own a 14-1 record against the Chargers at home and that run will continue here tonight. 


The Steelers 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS as home favs off a loss against non-division opposition coming off a home contest. Roethlisberger is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS versus .500 or greater AFC West opponents coming off a win.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

  The Minnesota Vikings enter this game ranked No. 10 in defence  and up trending as they have allowed 255 YPG and an average of  just 17 ppg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Meanwhile,  New England’s ranks No. 11 ranked defence has allowed only 17.5 PPG in their last four games overall. 

Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games in December.Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on fieldturf.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen average of 39.5 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in December games are 41-16 UNDERL/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a 2 game road trip, in December games are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Mahomes and the Chiefs have not played since taking part in a  back and forth , 54-51 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Nov. 19. Mahomes now with a week off might have take some time to get this high octane offence back working at optimal levels. Also strictly from an eye test, Oakland looks to be gaining some confidence, and QB Carr has suddenly learned to take care of the ball much better and has not given up an interception in 6 games to go along with a a high percentage completion rate on mostly short passes. The kind of football the Raiders are playing  gives them high probability to  survive  what coming their wayand Im betting thats what they find a way to do here at home this week in what I project as cover performance. 

The explosive Chiefs have won 19 of their last 20 games against AFC West opponents with their only loss coming last year at Oakland. Could a repeat upset happen, probably not, but taking the 15 points here is a viable investment option. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS L/7 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games.KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS L/12  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games. 

Raiders HC Gruden is 19-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover 

The Titans are off a ugly loss on Monday night football, to the Texans and now demoralized as their play off hopes start to fade. Now in an emotional letdown situation on short rest, the Titans are far from being solid  TD + favs against any team in this league including the lowly NY Jets. Note: The Titans are 1-6 ATS L/7 off a Monday nighter, and just 2-8 ATS L/10 in this series. 

TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS  in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.

NFL Home teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Miami  losers of 4 of their L/5 have looked in-cohesive and inconsistent this season, taking part in some ugly affairs and choking in others at key junctures, and  have also come out  completely flat on other occasions. Meanwhile, Buffalo is up trending after two straight wins and must be respected here as underdogs vs a Fins team that just does not look confident right now.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 4.75 or less  yards/play in the second half of the season.The Dolphins are 0-17 ATS ( L/17 as a favorite coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs. Which happened last week at Indianapolis in a loss.

The Buffalo Bills are 15-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 or more points against opp coming off consecutive losses, including 7-0 ATS in division tilts. 

NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are just 19-54 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Chicago's QB Mitchell Trubisky is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs NY Giants ( Shoulder )which in my opinion gives the Giants enough edge on their own field to get us the cover. as Daniels starts instead This is the Bears 2nd straight road game and its never easy winning two straight games on the road in this league, even for a teams deemed hot like the Bears. Previous to last week the Giants had won two straight and than had the Eagles on the ropes  as they took a 19-3 lead. Then instead of using emerging super star RB Saquon Barkely to slow the game down, the Gemn did the opposite . hmmm and blew the game .  Anyway,  now Im betting the Gmen bounce back, behind the arm of a QB that in Eli Manning that has a history of top tier efforts at home late in the season, as is evident by a  12-3-1 ATS record in December at home when coming off a loss and 7-0 ATS against opponent like Chicago coming off consecutive wins. Look for his side kick Sqauon Barkley to help keep the option wide open for Manning in what could be a SU upset for the home dog, but more importantly a cover . 

CHICAGO is 2-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the NY Giants to cover 

Jacksonville despite of their 7 game losing streak, are still a team that must be respected, behind what must be considered a solid defence allowing an average of just 16.2 ppg on the season as hosts. They have lost their L/3 games by 4 points or less, and getting points is a viable option , vs a Indianapolis team that despite of a current 5 game win streak has lost 3 of their 5 road games this season. Look for Jags QB Kody Kessler who is starting in place of Bortles, to give his team a spark and a cover. 

Marrone is 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of JACKSONVILLE and s 6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

Thanks to Ohio State absolute obliteration of Michigan last week, 62-39, we have a nice value line to bet into backing Northwestern. When a team like Ohio State exerts that much emotional and irrational exuberance in one game, an emotional letdown scenario usually follows them into the next game. We all know that Ohio State has consistently played down to opponents this season, and that despite of their defence playing well last week, have showed themselves over and over again to be porous to say the least. Urban Meyers has failed to cover 5 straight as a DD conference favorite, while the Wildcats HC Pat Fitzgerald is 8-1 ATS L/9 as a DD dog and overall 7-1 ATS in conference action this season. 

NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 21-8 ATS  in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game.NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog this season. 

HIO ST is 2-11 ATS after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 season.

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-17 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team ( 80%or more ) playing a good team (60% to 80% are 26-61 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

The dog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven Big Ten title games and Im betting the pup or cat if you wish grabs the cash again.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

These teams have played some low scoring games of late with the last meeting in early November seeing Boise State win a 24-17 squeaker . But now in contrarian fashion Im betting we see a significant uptick in point production this time around behind  teams  that boasted top-25 scoring offenses this season. In the last game scoring chances  effected the total score as the  Bulldogs' last two drives ended with a blocked field goals and a fourth-down incompletion after they reached the Boise State 23-yard line with 1:18 remaining.

Fresno State senior Marcus McMaryion has completed 258-of-366 passes for 24 touchdowns and three interceptions, and he is ranked No. 7 in passing efficiency. Boise Senior Rypien has completed 286-of-416 passes for 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he is ranked No. 11 in the FBS in passing efficiency. He set Mountain West career records for passing yards completions in the earlier victory over Fresno State, and he had his league-record 21st 300-yard passing with 310 against Utah State. Look for these two guys to shine here today, and for a  much different type of game than the public are anticipating. 

Boise State in their L/63 games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game since 1992 have seen a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored and in their L/59  tilts  vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game have seen a combined average of 64.3 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Boise State won the last time these teams met  24-17 right here on the Blue Carpet back in mid November, thanks to  dominating that game in the final quarter . Im betting they use the momentum of their last meeting to keep on trucking here, and once again come out of this for their 11th straight victory at home in this series. With the said,Im betting  on Boise State capturing the MWC title  and more importantly getting the all important cover as short chalk .

HC Harsin is 7-0 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play in all games he has coached . 

Play on Boise State to cover 

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 

This  is a rematch of last year’s National Championship game and its being  played on the same field . I felt Alabama was fortunate to get the win last season, and just got by the skin of their teeth in OT by 3 points thanks the heroics of Tide QB Tua Tagovailola. Now the Dawgs who are 6-1 ATS L/7 with SEC revenge and have cashed 6 straight times as underdogs in this series are the team I recommend backing as Georgia according to my rankings actually matchup well vs a side, that has yet to be tested this season. REVENGE , REVENGE. Georgia covers.

GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

CFB Neutral field underdogs (GEORGIA) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Georgia to cover 

California  has been outgunned in 4 straight games  and was pounded by Colorado last week, and somehow still found a way to win. The Golden Bears  biggest problem is that just can't score, and   have  failed to gain 300 yards overall in four straight games.  Today however, Im betting their luck  will run out against a team that is much better than their record might indicate. Bottom line here is you have to score to beat Stanford,  and Cals  passing game is  less than viable, and the running game is putrid in trouble against strong Cardinal defensive front .The Bad News Bears are not going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Stanford has won 9 straight meetings in this series and the L/4 here at Cal dating back to the 2010.

Last week, Stanford beat UCLA 49-42 , but that a good omen as STANFORD is 20-4 ATS  in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored and HC Shaw is 7-0 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

Play on Stanford to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Floyd Stadium - Murfreesboro, TN

The Blue Raiders have won five of its last six games overall and five in a row over C-USA opponents, and their home winning streak is at seven games going back to last season.  UAB has a great D, but HC Rick Stockstill  also has a tough hard nosed D, and that was evident on Nov 24 of this season UAB was soundly beaten by Middle Tennessee State 27-3 and repeat performance is not out of the question according to my own projections in the rematch for the CUSA Championship.  

Note: [RB] 11/25/2018 - Spencer Brown is "?" Saturday vs Middle Tenn St ( Undisclosed )

UAB is 3-12 ATS L/15  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games  .MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-6 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (UAB) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 1-33 SU L/26 seasons for a 97% go against  conversion rate for bettors witht he average point differential clicking in at 21.6 ppg. 

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover 

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahomas body of work this season  despite of star QB  QB Kyler Murrays heroics have  not impressed me, with their only really top tier outing coming vs West Virginia. The Sooners are erratic to say the least as their defence has allowed 46, 47, 40 and 56  points in the last four games and the word champion if they win today must be used loosely. I know Texas may not inspire bettors either as they have been extremely inconsistent. but they did win this seasons Red River clash 48-45 handing the Sooners they're only loss, and have now covered 6 straight in this series. 

Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a underdog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points.

TEXAS is 6-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game this season and is 2-10 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. 

 CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 12-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 14-41  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Marshalls D, has been stingy this season allowing an average of 20.3 ppg, while VTech has had problems consistently putting points on the board as is evident by scoring 23 or less points in 5 of their L/7 games overall. This game has some significance for the Hokies as they need it to have change for a Bowl invite, while Marshall has a Bowl invite all ready in their back pocket, and are just playing spoilers here today. Look for these two Virginia/West Virginia rivals. to g head to head in a hard fought lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the number. 

CFB team against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 26-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.5 ppg scored.

Virginia Tech has gone under11 straight times when com-ing off a win where they threw for less than 200 yards with no score in the subset going over the 51 point plateau. 

Play UNDER 

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levis Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

The  Washington Huskies upset Washington State last week in a 28-15 emotional filled event that will have them in a letdown scenario this week. It will be hard for them to get up to the same energy levels as last week, vs a tough physical Utah team that can make life miserable for them in the trenches   I know Washington beat the Utes back in September but since than Utah is 7-1 SU and  are 4-1 ATS as underdogs with conference revenge and 5-1 ATS when getting 6 points or less. Washington before last weeks  Apple Cup victory were on a 6 game ATS losing streak and looked far from being championship calibre team. Note    Utah is 15-0 SU in games not played on the weekend  and 5-0 SUATS the last five overall .

UTAH is 19-6 ATS L/25 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or more). WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season are 33-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Utah to cover 

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Ford Field - Detroit, M

The Bulls (10-2, 7-1 MAC) won the MAC East Division title Friday with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green, and face Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-2) for the MAC championship. My own projections make this opening total just to low.We all know N.Illinois is a defence first team, but to beat Buffalo they are going to have to score. With that said, Im on the over here out of the gate.

I have Buffalo scoring 27+ points and N.Illinois scoring 24+ points. BUFFALO in 12  road games when they score 22 to 28 have seen a combined average of 56.7 ppg go on the board. 

N.Illinois in their L/33 November games have seen a combined average score of 59.5 ppg go on the board. 

 Play on the OVER 

 Texas enters this tilt vs Tennessee  having won 7 straight games following a 0-3 start.   The wins were not that impressive overall and most were against average to sub par average teams with a total combined record of 22-20 record  and they  won 4  of those games by 3 points or less .

Tonight Im betting Tennessee’s 9th ranked defense to go  Helmut to helmet  with Houston’s strong  D and make this a hard fought tilt. With  Tennessee's QB Marcus Mariota  expected to play the Titans are a solid side option , as he  is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in division games when his team is coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. Note: NFL Road teams (TENNESSEE) - off a road loss, in November games are good long term bets against the spread going 179-117 ATS L/35 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

 HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons. 

The Titans are also 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS on Monday nights.

Take the point with Tennessee to cover 

Minnesota must go to the pass game alot as their run game ranks 31st in the league in rushing, averaging 84.7 yards per game. It must noted that GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with an average of 51.3 ppg scored. on the flip side the Vikings secondary has been struggling, which is a sign of a high scoring tilt as GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Finally GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons., with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board.


GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.7 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 44-17 OVER L/35 years. for a 72% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on OVER

 The Steelers and an emotional let down situation coming off a revengeful win vs Jacksonville last out .  With that in mind and the fact that he Steelers have  not been good bets vs AFC teams like Denver as is evident by  struggling in these confrontations  recording a  3-11 SU record  and a equally ugly  2-12 ATS mark as road favs L/39 seasons, including 0-9 ATS when favoured by more than 3 points.Meanwhile, the Broncos are up-trending  as they have taken the stats battles  in 4 of their L/5 and cashed in four of those tilts. Denver has also been cash in the bank at home as   home dog  cashing 9 of their L/10 vs above.500 sides.

Long term DENVER is 29-15 ATS L/44  in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season . Denver  is 6-2 SU L/8 at home this series. 

The Steelers are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a road favorite on natural surface  off a win.

Play on Denver to cover 

These long time rivals the New England Patriots and NY Jets  go head to head this Thanks giving weekend. The early public money is as expected all over the Pats.While sharp money goes down on the Jets. I know this is contrarian action, as many expect the Pats to be primed for redemption after suffering a DD loss last time , but  Im betting if the Pats get by a desperate Jets team that has lost 4 straight, it wont come by more than this offered line. The last two meetings here in NY have both been won by the Pats, but both were decided by TD or less. Both times the Pats were 9 to 10 point chalk, and both times the public smashed their money down on them and both times they lost, and now the three and out rule is in effect. Be brave, take the Jets as they make it their mission to get back their long lost respect.  

The Jets have historically been a good bet off a home defeat and than following up as the host team. NY JETS are 21-6 ATS  in home games off a home loss since 1992.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Both these teams have trouble scoring, and both have top tier defences ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league. To back a road favorite in my opinion, that team must have the ability to get the ball into the end zone consistently , something the Jags are not doing. I know Buffalo does not inspire bettors, but after scoring 41 points last time out before their bye and now on fresh legs the Bills are a better bet than most might care to believe. Especially taking on an emotionally drained side, that was off a must win situation  last week vs the Steelers and then blew it, by not showing up in the 2nd half after a 16-0 lead . Its interesting to note that the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS  L/6 as a favorite off a game as a dog are 0-6 ATS  off a game as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions which was the case last week in a hurtful 20-16 loss to the Steelers after taking a a DD lead. 

Play on Buffalo Bills to cover 

The 49ers are fresh and off a bye week, and before the break they loss a close one to the Giants 27-23 on Monday Night even though they out gained them by 374 to 277 yards. The Niners according to my power rankings also despite of a negative record are up trending, and are viable underdogs here vs a Tampa Bay team, that despite of moving the chains with regularity , are just 1-7 in their L/8 games with a 2-27 negative turnover ratio . The Bucs own an atrocious D, and can't hold onto the ball, and are fade material this Sunday.

TAMPA BAY is 1-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.


NFL road dogs playing on natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent are 10-0 ATS off their bye week, covering by an average of 10.15 ppg and SF fits the bill this Sunday. 
he Fortyniners are 7-0 ATS L/7 after a home game in which a player had at least 6 receptions.
The Fortyniners are 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road dog facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS L/ 7 at home of a loss. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

Giants rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big day vs  the Eagles with 130 yards on the ground and 99 yards receiving in the first meeting this season, and I now expect the GMen to go back to what worked in the first time these teams met and go to the ground attack constantly here today which will eat time on the clock. Yes, last week Eli Manning had a big day, but he is one of footballs most inconsistent QBs, and don't be surprised if struggles this week, and leans on Barkley to get take the workload as the game progresses.  I know the Eagles secondary is banged up, but many think some of the young gun CBs waiting on the sidelines must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia , has had enormous problems scoring this season, averaging just 20.5 ppg, and after last weeks defensive catastrophe vs the Saints will also be primed to play better D. The above combinations Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

The Giants  have gone under 24 straight times with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a field goal or more with the combined average score clicking in at 29.8 ppg with no combined score eclipsing the 45 point plateau. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 14 or more points are 25-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

BYU (6-5) knocked off a ranked opponent on the road earlier this season and is more than capable of turning the trick again as they have the added incentive of needing to  notch back-to-back wins to get bowl eligible. I know Utah is a top tier team, but when these programs have met in the past records  and stats go out the window, as 17 out of the last 20 games in the Holy War have been decided by seven points or less.BYU is  also 21-3-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, including 14-1 ATS against opposition with at least one loss on the season like Utah. With No. 17 ranked Utah looking ahead to next weeks PAC 12 championship game, expect the unexpected. Take the points. 

BYU is 6-0 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

BYU to cover 

Notre Dame deserves to be in the top 6 teams in the country, and despite of USC having an off year, they are still extremely talented with a deep recruiting class. With that said, I wont be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of this season this Saturday for the Irish to may not be so lucky. It must also be noted that the Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home pups  with a below .500 record and the visitor in this series i 0-5 ATS L/5 meetings and USC is 8-3 ATS when hosting this series.

NOTRE DAME is 0-9 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992.

CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-25 ATS since 1992 for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on USC to cover 

 The Governor's Cup matchup at Louisville's Cardinal Stadium between the Cardinal and Wildcats is best summef up by the following quotes: 

"In a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window," Stoops said. "We're worried about ourselves and playing the best football we can and just finishing.

"I think anytime you play a rival, the guys on the other side are going to play harder," said Louisville interim coach Lorenzo Ward, whose Cardinals (2-9) haven't won since a 20-17 decision over Western Kentucky back on Sept. 15. "It's about pride, so you can throw the records out. Regardless of how a season's gone, it's still the same as if we were undefeated."

Key Trend:KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons

Take the points with Louisville to cover 

New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-41 in their first meeting this season and matchup well against them. Meanwhile, Liberty D, is currently a shambles, has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg on the season.

Liberty HC Gill is 1-9 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 54-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Mexico State to cover

Rice at 1-11 might not inspire bettors but Old Dominion despite of some upsets this season have for majority of the time played down to their opponents, and are never a safe bets as a favorite especially on the road. 

RICE is 22-10 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. RICE is 25-10 ATS  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

RICE is 44-25 ATS as a home underdog since 1992.RICE is 31-16 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.Wilder is 7-16 ATS  after playing a non-conference game as the coach of OLD DOMINION.

CFB team (RICE) - after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 59-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Rice to cover