Cappers Sports Picks

The public was all over the Cleveland in game 1 of the season, and they lost big time when the Browns crapped the bed in their opener for their 19th loss in 21 seasons in their opening game(includes a tie). Im still not a believer in a team with no winning culture in place, and despite of the upgrades and fantasy like dreams of a Super Bowl by the pundits and their supporters, I believe we should all temper our expectations at least for now on how good the Browns will be this season. I also don't think they deserve to road favs in this spot vs a hard nosed NY Jets team that matches up fairly well against them. With that said, Im recommending we take the points here tonight. 

Cleveland 0-3 ATS L/3 Monday night tilts. NY Jets are 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series. Cleveland is 2-12 ATS L/14 coming off a loss.

Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 35 points in their previous game, in conference games are 4-24 SU L/36 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-40 ATS since 1983 for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

Philadelphia's Darren Sproles, Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders combined for 116 yards rushing on 26 carries in Week 1 against Washington, helping the Eagles rally from a 17-point deficit for a 32-27 win. This Philadelphia team looked rejuvenated and like they were on a mission, and have momentum and chip on their shoulders coming into this game against the Atlanta Hawks a team that coming off a ugly looking 28-12 defeat  at Minnesota in the season opener. Note: The Falcons were gashed by the  Vikings   for 172 yards on the ground and the three headed monster of Sproles, Howard and Sanders should be ready for a field day here on Sunday night Football. 

Quinn  the Falcons HC has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs and is fade material according to my power rankings. 

Philadelphia is 5-0 SU/ATS away vs a side of a  away SU loss.Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.

Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.

NFL Underdogs  (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-32 SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to  cover 

The Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos are both off opening week losses, and will be primed to bounce back.

The Bears offense managed just 254 yards in their opening loss last Thursday, but the defense held the Packers to 213 yards, including allowing Aaron Rodgers to throw for just 166 yards and Im betting they will be key to slowing down QB Joe Flacco and  the Broncos here in this tilt. The Bears have had extra rest , while Denver is on short rest. Note: Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Green By is 3-0 ATS vs teams coming off aMonday night game.

Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CHICAGO is 20-6 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1992.Since 2014, a team like the Bears that did not cover at home in Week 1, and is on the road in Week 2, is 22-7 ATS (75%) in that Week 2 away tilt.

DENVER is 0-6 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons and is is 0-8 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons.

 NFL Home teams (DENVER) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in non-conference games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Andy Reids explosive KC Cheifs jumped out of the shoot last week, with a 40-27 win at Jacksonville . But it must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 7 of their L/10 after putting 40 or more points on the board, thanks in part to the lines makers over adjusting because of recency bias.  Meanwhile, Oakland also won their first game 24-16 with good offensive management and a strong looking D. With the departure of Antonio Brown and a limited experienced WR group, Im expecting alot of short passes and clock burning running plays, to limit their output production vs what Im betting will be a more viable KC D this season.  Note: The Raiders  have gone under in back to back  division games and have gone under in 6 of their L/8 as 7 point or more home dogs. Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games following a straight up win.

OAKLAND is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 11-2 UNDER  versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (OAKLAND) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 89-42 L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

This is a battle of NFC North competitors here this Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings and Green put  their early season undefeated records on the line. Both are off wins , but the Packers looked better in their win than the Vikings who were out gained 345-269 but still managed to win vs Atlanta.  Here today Im betting home field advantage will hold.  Hey, I know the Packers have not beaten the Vikings since the 2016 season, but that means this crowd and the Packers are going to be up for this tilt and play with a lot of energy. Note: Rodgers  is 23-6-1 SU in  his career in home division games, and 11-0-1 SU in the first 6 games of the season at home vs division rivals. We all know how proud Aaron Rodgers is and how much pride this franchise has as a whole. Its early and I could change my mind, based as the season progresses, but there seems to be something special abut this group of Cheese Heads, and for now Im betting on that to be on full display here today. 

Minnesota has only won 2 of their L/11 road openers vs division opponents.Vikings are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover 

These long time rivals Washington and Dallas saw alot of yards get accumulated in their week 1 games. The Redskins combined for 834 combined yards, and the Cowboys combined for a whopping 964 combined yards. Im betting on more of the same non stop action this week when these teams go Helmut to Helmut. Note:These teams in their L/7 meetings  have seen a combined average of   51.4 ppg go on the board with 6 of the 7 games eclipsing the total. 

Gruden is 7-0 OVER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard.

All game 2  NFL road favorites who scored 35 or more pts in Game One like Dallas have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER dating back 10 seasons! 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (WASHINGTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in conference games are 45-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 68-34 OVER L/36 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Steelers were embarrassed last week vs the New England Pats by a score of 33-3 in their road opener and now they will be out looking for redemption in front of their home town fans this Sunday. No pro likes to be embarrassed and Ben Rothlisberger is a prime example of this , winning and covering 8 straight SU/ATS after losing by 18 or more points. Im betting the Steelers bounce back here vs a Seattle team that is just 2-12 ATS and 1-12-1 SU L/13 road openers dating back to the 2005 campaign. 

The last  two times these 2 teams met here in Pittsburgh the Steelers won 24-0 and 21-0 and another strong effort is on todays agenda. 

PITTSBURGH is 108-79 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.  

NFL Favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 59-27 . ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

The Orange were annihilated last week as favs by a  63-20 count at Maryland. Im betting that this team was more focused on their upcoming game against the Tigers than the Terps.  Despite of public recency bias, based on results Dino Babers knows how to slow Clemson as Syracuse only lost by 4 at Clemson a year ago, and was undefeated at  6-0 at home in 2018 and must be respected getting this many points in the Carrier Dome. Note: Clemson is 0-8 ATS L/8  on the road as 20 or more favs. 

Take the points with Syracuse to cover 

Hawaii despite of being porous on D, have enough offensive weapons to stay within the number here vs a over rated Washington side. The public and pundits are expecting the Huskies to bounce back this week after being upset by California 20-19. But Im betting this weeks expected  victory will not come so easily . Note: In the L/14 seasons, ranked teams after a loss like Washington have gone 244-300-14 (44%) against the spread (ATS) .  From a head to head historical reference Washington leads the series 3-2 SU with the last two meetings featuring wins for the Huskies by 1point at Hawaii in 2014, and by 8 points  at home in 2011. 

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Florida has owned Kentucky at home winning 15 straight here vs the Wildcats, and Im betting nothing changes today as the home team goes into battle without their starting QB Terry Wilson who is expected to be out for the season with a knee injury. Because of the injury the line is a plus TD for the favs Florida . Im big on value lines, but Im betting this is not one of them. Note:Kentucky is 3-23 ATS in its last twenty-six straight-up losses at home.

Mullen is 10-0 ATS after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. ( Mullens team 29.2 vs  opp 15 ppg)

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, after allowing 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (FLORIDA) - good rushing team from last season - averaged 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 44-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Florida Gators to cover 

 Last week, Georgia State trailed 20-3 to  Furman of the FCS in the second quarter, but quarterback Dan Ellington and the Panther offense exploded with a 48-42 victory. Im expecting Ellington and company to keep trucking here today. Meanwhile,  the Western Michigan Broncos defense was completely destroyed by a usually impotent Mich State Spartan offense last week allowing just under 200 yards receiving and rushing to two individual players. Since last season  new DC Lou Esposito has allowed   opponent to  score six touchdowns in 4 of 6 games. Everything points to his being a block buster affair with crap defence as the feature. 

Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 7-0-1 in Broncos last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games on fieldturf.Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. S-Belt.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.Over is 15-5 in Broncos last 20 home games.Over is 34-12-1 in Broncos last 47 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 road games.Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games on fieldturf.

Play OVER

 After being blasted by KState 52-0 last week it might be hard for some to see some light when its comes to BGSU. However , I do expect the Green Falcons to bounce back this week in their home coming tilt and make a game of this vs visiting Louisiana  Tech.  Im betting on the Falcons  to establish a run game with Clair, Frye, and a big OL, and keep themselves within the number. 

Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Falcons are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

 Bowling Green to cover 

Im betting on two long time instate non conference rivals to go to head in a real battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week, despite of recency bias favoring Iowa. The Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS as conference road favs and the home team in this series has covered 3 straight times . I know Iowa State did not look great in their opener, but   Iowa State is coming off a  bye week and has spent that time getting energized and preparing for their big rivalry matchup.

Campbell is 9-2 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of IOWA ST.

Play on Iowa State to cover 

Im betting  Georgia Southern option attack will grind this clock down quickly, while Minnesota behind their running game and big Oline will do the same. 

Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.Under is 13-6 in Eagles last 19 games following a straight up win. Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in September.

Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games overall.Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 home games

Play UNDER 

Memphis has started their season winning their first two home games including a week 1 15-10  victory vs Ole Miss and an easy 55-24 victory vs a FCS opponent Southern last week. Now in a let down spot vs a tough Sun belt opponent South Alabama Im betting covering this number will not come easily. MEMPHIS is 1-9 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992.MEMPHIS is 4-15 ATS  after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and is 13-33 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.

Memphis is just 3-16 SU in their L/19 road openers.

Play on South Alabama to cover 

The Mounties are coming off a 38-7 beat down  at Missouri  and now are being given a home dog classification by the lines-makers vs a over rated NC State football program that just got finished beating up on two sub par Carolina programs(East and Coastal). I know that West Virginia might be down a few notches this season with just 10 returning starters, and have a new head coach, but this line is over blown thanks to recency bias thus giving us value according to my projections. Note: West Virginia 20-1 L/21 at home vs non conference opposition.

NC STATE is 8-22 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 32-9 ATS L/27seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W VIRGINIA) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Temple and Maryland have  alot of  similarities this season. New head coaches and offensive systems. Inexperienced top tier  talent everywhere. According to my power ranking projections both all match up very well, and Im not going to be swayed by Maryland 2 lopsided wins in the first couple of weeks of this season.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games are 33-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Temple Owls to cover 

Tonight Im betting a talented blue collar group in Kansas State under new HC Chris Klieman, will give a over rated Mississippi State program a much closer battle than many might anticipate. Kansas State annihilated their first two opponents, and  while the Bulldogs also won their first two games they were far from spectacular, and with starting QB Tommy Stevens enduring a shoulder injury last week and backup QB Garrett Shrader expected  to start  further credence is added to my call .( Even if Sharder starts Im still expect KState to play a jack in the box role today metaphorically speaking-suprise suprise )

 Mississippi State is in a look ahead revenge mode for their  SEC season opener against Kentucky next week and may not be fully focused here, giving us value with the dog.

New Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman, has won 23 away games in a row and knows how to get his troops prepared in the visitors role. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 43-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB road team (KANSAS ST) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 93-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kansas State Wildcats to cover 

Lovie Smiths Illinois is up-trending, with two straight wins to start their campaign but Im betting they will have their hands full with a Eastern Michigan side that is 21-7-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois is  just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus an opponent from the MAC and still don't have a winning culture in place as is evident by going 13-57 Su  in regular season games over the last 12 seasons. Yes, Eastern Michigan lost to Kentucky last week 38-17 and failed to cover as 16 point dogs,  but this hard nosed never say die group deserves our respect as does the football program that has gone 12-1 ATS L/13 vs .500 or better opposition and that is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Kansas State comes into Starkville with a top 10 defense and wont be easily intimidated . On offence the Wildcats are a run first type of team, and because of this alot of clock time will be eaten up and quickly. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring game than many might think on what has become a bloated total since being released. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER  after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 UNDER   after playing a game at home over the last 2 season with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - excellent rushing team (230 or more  RY/G) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 39-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Tonights tilt at NRG Stadium, the home of the Texans will see the vast majority of the crowd rooting for Houston. which Im betting will give them a edge.

It must be noted that Washington States HC   Leach is  just 2-7 ATS in weekday games and 5-14-2 ATS going against  .500 or better non-conference opposition . Leach is also 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992.

With a top tier coach Dana Holgorsen, who stands 17-1 SU in non-conference games. and a Houston Cougars football program that are 13-1-1 ATS as 2 or more points underdogs we have  a viable side to back here tonight on ESPN. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 64-27 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - porous defense from last season - allowed 425 or more total yards/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 52-21 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Cougars to cover 

The Cougars  used to be a fast paced team  (No. 1 in seconds per play last season) but  now under new coach Dana Holgorsen  the pace has slowed alot .Houston ranks 100th of 130 FBS teams in plays per second at 28.4 and bleeding the clock Im betting will be on full display for Houston tonight.  I know Washington State can score in bunches behind a strong passing game, but Houston has shown flashes of brilliance in their secondary already thiss season and are capable of slowing down the visitors attack tonight in a game I pegged to stay on the low side of what is a bloated total based on past assumptions . 

HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (WASH ST/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) are 46-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams lost their opening games, but it must be noted that  during the L/6 seasons the UNDER is 9-1 in all Game 2s with  home  favorites of 3  or more points when both sides  are coming  off a SU loss . Note: Both teams we blasted for 31 and 30 points respectively which makes for a recency bias on this total.  Note:  During the 2018 campaign, the UNDER was dominant  cashing 12 of 13 times when both teams gave up m 30 or more  pts   in their previous game, when the Total is within the parameters of 42 to 53 points. Carolina is also 3-21 under L/24 as division home chalk and have gone under 3 straight times after allowing 30 or more points. 

TB has gone under in 9 of their L/11 as 6 or more point dogs. 

t must be noted that Bruce AriansTB QB guru is getting set to help out his talented QB Winston cut down on turnovers and realize his potential as the No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft  by running the ball more effectively.With second-year pro Ronald Jones II leading the way, Tampa Bay rushed for 121 yards in last week's loss and will once again be utilized to make this into a grinding type affair vs a Carolina team that has proven itself less than explosive over the last few seasons. 

These two teams have gone under 5 of the L/6 times they have met . Average  Totals line: 49. The Average combined points  per game clicked in at 39.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER

 The betting public are starting to be sold on the  Broncos, who   with QB Joe Flacco  now in the fold and Vic Fangio back as the defensive ordinator are considered possible play off contenders . However, the Raiders despite of being expected to be without suspended star Antonio Brown for this game are being looked upon as bad bets here this week after starting as 3 point favs . However in my usual contrarian fashion I now see some value in a situation this is being over blown. Quite honestly Brown has been a distraction to this team since being acquired and his absence may not be a bad thing. 

Broncos are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.Broncos are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC West.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

DENVER is 7-18 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oakland to cover 

This might seem like a public leaning total , but according to my projections this combined score  here this Monday night between the Texans and their hosts the explosive Saints should breach this number. Note: Brees has thrown 37 scoring passes in 17 career Kickoff Weekend games, the most of any quarterback. I expect the Saints to light the scoreboard up here tonight and for the Texans to have no choice but to open things up behind  quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first player to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and five scores in a season and  respond with some fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.

The Saints are 4-0-1 OVER L/5 games on turf on Monday night dating back 5 seasons with a combined average score eclipsing the total by more than 10 ppg. 

Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in Week 1.

Play OVER 

The Texans had a good record in 2018 but it was all smoke and mirrors and they lost in the play offs in humiliating fashion by a 21-7 count vs the Colts as chalk, barely mustering a fight and now this season Im betting things will not get much better, starting tonight against explosive New Orleans Saints. The bottom line here is that the Texans  just don't have the firepower to hang with the Saints in their home Opener on prime time TV where the Saints will want to start to with a bang after last seasons horrific officiating  call that was partially responsible for eliminating them from the play offs.  Note: Week one underdogs like the Texans of at least two or more points are 0-16 ATS/SU L/16 when they were beaten by 12 or more points  ATS  in their first playoff game last season with the average margin loss coming by 13.4 ppg. I know the Saints have lost their L/5 openers but all good and bad things must eventually come to an end.

Texans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.

Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover 

New England willed their way to a Super Bowl championship last season , but in no way shape or form were they as over powering during the reg season as many might have thought, and now the departure of Gronk , Bradys main downfield target will see the team Im betting slowly adjust to his absence. Tonight Im also betting on Roethlisberger and company to make a game of this here at Gillette Stadium. Note: Big Ben  is 35-18-2 ATS career as a underdog in the NFL  and has won 30 of those games SU.  Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 at home under the Sunday night lights.

Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as an underdog as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

The Steelers are 7-1 ATS  since Dec 13, 2015 as a road dog.

The Steelers are 4-0 ATS L/4 as a dog.

NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins are 23-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

Bucs defense allowed 29 ppg last season and Im not expecting a miraculous bounce back season even though Bruce Arians is now  on board. The lousy pass rush wont be able to challenge ,Jimmy Garoppolo and Im betting the now healthy QB will smash a still susceptible secondary. Meanwhile, James Winston despite of being highly inconsistent is a very capable passer, and he will be up the challenge here on the road this week, behind a speedy group of wide receivers. 

Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in September.Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September.  TB 8-2 OVER as fav/dog 3 or less. 

Play OVER 

No Andrew Luck at QB for the Indianapolis Colts, no problem. With a revamped offence engineered by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, and a offensive line that is uptrending, the interim QBs should do just fine and points production should not be the problem many pundits might anticipate. Players like RB  Marlon Mack  who rushed for 900  yards and nine touchdowns last season and , T.Y. Hilton  who produced 1,200 receiving yards in 14 games, and tight end Eric Ebron led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns is an explosive group who can do lots of damage and quickly. The Colts D, is still a work in progress, so they may also allow a fair amount of points and will need to be a pedal to the metal type offensive side to be competitive. Meanwhile, Chargers star QB Phillip Rivers will continue to put points on the board, especially with targets like receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the fold. Today against a susceptible Colts secondary this Im betting will become obvious, and will overall help us see a combined score that goes over the total. 

Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in Week 1Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in September.Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in Week 1.

Play OVER

The Seahawks were the NFL’s top rushing team last season, averaging 160 yards a contest and Im betting they will just explosive this season which will set up their passing  game behind the arm of Russell Wilson  and an over all increase in ppg production. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati  Bengals were smashed  for 137.8 rushing yards a game last season, and I expect there will be no immediate fixes for their defensive issues be a broken damn. The Bengals only saving grace will be the big red machine QB  Andy Dalton who can be dangerous when in a groove. Im expecting Dalton to be very impactful here in new HC Taylor new offensive schemes. 

Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1-1 in Bengals last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 1.

Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Carroll is 27-11 OVER in non-conference games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The high octane offence of the KC Chiefs behind phenom Patrick Mahomes comes into the heat and humidity of Jacksonville this Sunday in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of a public leaning total. Im betting Jacksonville has had sufficient time to study this explosive group, and behind a top tier D, will slow the Chiefs here ( at least enough to keep their Chiefs output to reasonable levels). Meanwhile, Im also betting it will take time for the Jags,   to  jell offensively, thanks to their new parts, (QB Nick Foles)  and for the Chiefs D, to be much improved over last seasons hands off version. ( Changed form a 3-4 to 4-3 scheme) Add to that a muggy Sunday environment we have a more methodical game than many might expect and a lower combined score than the public is counting on. 

The Jags  L/13   home  games since the 2017 season,  have seen them allow  an average of just 12.7 points per game and their offence has average just 19.9 points per game. 

Reid is 12-4 UNDER against AFC South division opponents as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 43 ppg going on the board.Reid in 74 games  as a favorite as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average score of 45.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall.Under is 16-7 in Jaguars last 23 vs. AFC.

Play on the UNDER 

Super Bowl teams like the Rams that lost have been bad bets in their followup campaign are just 17-31-1 ATS in non division road games as chalk dating back 19 seasons.It must also be noted that Defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season if they are away and facing a non-conference opponent are 1-15 ATS L/16 seasons. The Rams qualify here under those perimeters. Meanwhile, Carolina is according to my preseason power rankings a very under rated team that deserves respect as home dogs against any team in this league.Carolina is 5-0 ATS L/5 at home in this series vs the Rams and gets my support here today.

Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.Rams are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games in Week 1.

Take the points with Carolina to cover

The Panthers have gone  UNDER in their in their last 7 opening games of a NFL season going under the number by 14 ppg and we all know how conservative this team is out of the gate and overall general terms. I know they will face an explosive offence here today, but last season the Rams played much more conservatively on the road then at home, going under in their L/5 road games, and Im betting that trend continues here today as they make the long arduous trip from the west coast to the east coast. It must be noted that week one none division road chalk of -2 or more  are 4-24-1 UNDER  dating back 20 seasons .

These teams have gone under in 5 of their L/6 meetings with a combined average of 30.2 ppg going on the board and another lower scoring game will be on todays agenda according to my projections .

The Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 away with a 50 or more point total. The rams have the Saints up next week ( 0-7 UNDER L/7before the Saints). Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 as road favs -2 or more. 

Panthers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 with a total of 48 or more.

Play UNDER

Mac Brown return as  coach of North Carolina was impressive as he took out rival South Carolina.  Now coming home his young men are feeling confident, which the same cannot be said, about a Miami Fl side that was run over by a speedy Florida D in game one losing by a 24-20 count. Last week the Gamecocks had just 270 total yards and went 3 for 13 on third down and Im betting they can slow the Canes in this spot.  Meanwhile, N.Carolina;s new Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, previously of Ole Miss knows how to fire up a offence with different looks and Im betting he has this Canes D on their heels here today. Possible upset in the making , which makes getting points here a viable investment opportunity.  HC Mac  Brown’s career numbers  are 14-0 last fourteen home openers) and 4-0 ATS as a conference home dog against opposition coming off a loss like the Miami Canes. 

Play on N.Carolina Tarheels to cover 

Western Michigan has one the most talented experienced returning groups in the nation ( production wise) and won't be intimidated by the Michigan State Spartans. Considering look ahead tilts to Arizona State and Northwestern on deck over the next couple of weeks, Dantonio and company may not be fully focused on this up trending opponent which gives us value taking the underdog here. 

The Spartans are just 3-14 ATS L/17 at home in non conference action and 0-5 ATS L5 as 14 or more favourites.

MLB Road underdogs (W MICHIGAN) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and  48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Western Michigan to cover 

Wyoming according to my projections is being over rated here vs Texas State. Giving us value taking the points . 

Texas State had the No. 5 defense in the Sun Belt Conference in 2018, allowing 383.9 yards per game. Almost everyone returns this year and should continue to uptrend. With new  HC Jake Spavital’s at the helm of the team the offence should also see improvement. The old ball coach has proven himself over and over again with seven previous coaching stops, his last three as an offensive coordinator for Power 5 schools.Texas State trails 2-1 in the all-time series, but the hosting team has won each game. Home field advantage will be the difference maker here again this week vs Wyoming. 

Bohl is 6-15 ATS  in September games as the coach of WYOMING

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS ST) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas State to cover 

Florida International-was crushed last week vs Tulane 42-14, while Western Kentucky came out flat and was upset loss vs  FCS Central Arkansas 35-28 as 10 point favs. 

There is a new HC in Western Kentucky as Helton takes over and gets 10 returning starters to build with. It might not seem like it after getting upset by a FCS side, last week but  returning production and S&P+ projections for telling  the Hilltoppers to improve to 101st overall,  with a 6-6 record brings hope . With all 5 starters back on the O-line Im expecting bigger and better things from this Hilltoppers offence as the season progresses, starting today vs Florida International team that allowed 42 points to Tulane side that struggled mightily on offence last season.

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 9-21 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 48-16 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on W.Kentucky to cover 

The Vols 38-30 loss to a Georgia State team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference was as shocking to say the least, and had the added bonus of showing me how bad their defence was going to be this season.Defensively, the Vols  struggled against Georgia States option attack as quarterback Dan Ellington made the Vols look less than mortal. Im betting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson who is  also mobile will do the same , which  will inflict more damage on a  injury plagued and struggling Vols defensive line. Needless to say Im betting BYU lights up the board here, while Tennessee will fire back with wreck-less abandon as they look for some kind spark from their offence. This Im also betting will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 13-3 in Cougars last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. .

Play OVER 

Georgia State pulled of an enormous upset last week beating Tennessee in what will probably be the biggest upset of the year. Now in an equally enormous let down situation Georgia State is being over rated in this spot on what my own projections make a bloated line giving us value backing Furman getting points. It must be noted that Furman runs a triple option attack, and last year Georgia State rush D was atrocious and allowed huge chunks of ground yardage on individual plays from scrimmage and today their inadequacies will be exposed.

Play on Furman to cover

Maine  is as tough as nails defensively behind their now infamous “Black Hole” defense that returns almost all their starters.  The Black Bears  rush D, was of the top tier variety last season on the FCS and they will once again be hard to run against and more than prepared to slow down Georgia Southern’s triple option attack. Meanwhile, with Georgia Southerns junior quarterback Shai Werts is  banged up after last weeks run in with LSU and less than 100% the Eagles are being over rated.  Bottom line here this is a nasty FCS group that Georgia Southern will face here today and a win wont come easily for them, thus Im recommending we take the points.

Play on the Maine Black Bears to cover 

UCLA still looks like its going to be while before they morph into a better team as last week they  managed just 218 yards and 14 points against  Cincinnati. Now this week off a tough as nails San Diego State D, that shut out their opening week opponent , the Bruins will once again having issues putting points on the board. The Bruins Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked like a deer lost in headlights at times in week one, and his PTSD experience of fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions should spark more atrophy here.On the flip side   I know San Diego State Quarterback Ryan Agnew did not look good last week and his top tier running back Juwan Washington on a tender ankle had just 55 yards  last week in their 6-o win but, I don't think they wanted to open their play book and give the Bruins anything to look at. This week will be different. 

Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Aztecs are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 43-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego State to cover 

Jimbo Fisher has been competitive in previous tilts vs Dabo Swinney. Last season, Texas A&M gave Clemson fits in a a 28-26 victory by the Tigers in which the Aggies had more total yards.   Texas A&M head coach has beaten Clemson or stayed within 10 points in a loss in previous recent meetings. This Texas A&M team is built to stand tall against teams like Clemson and Im betting we have value taking points here this week.

TEXAS A&M is 12-1 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. ( Texas A&M beat Texas St in week 1 at home)Fisher is 21-7 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. 

CFB road team (TEXAS A&M) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 40-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - good offense from last season - averaged 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 48-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas A&M Aggies to cover 

Colorado won last year's meeting 33-28 in Lincoln and despite of Nebraska wanting revenge and  their stock in an up-trending mode Im betting the Buffaloes will be a hand full for them. The Huskers despite of always getting alot of public support have lost 7 straight road games and if they end their current negative run  Im betting it won't come easily. 

The Buffaloes smashed Colorado State last week 52-31. Note:Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Buffaloes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Colorado Buffs to cover 

Pitts young  OL  vs UVA last week was struggling, as 4 new starters gave up 4 sacks and Panthers gained only 263 total yards, but somehow still found a way to put 14 points on the board vs a very tough Virginia squad . This week Im betting the Panthers find ways to do some offensive damage this week, vs a Ohio  HC Solich side that does not have a reputation for staunch defences. Yes the secondary is experienced but, its not like they have shown much in the recent past. Meanwhile, Ohio is an explosive offensive group, behind the lethal  Nathan Rourke who remains one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Im betting the power run game of the Bobcats  vs the weakness of the rush D of Pitt opens up this game for the pass game and mucho points go on the board in a tilt that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Note: Ohios FCS  opponent Rhode Island put 21 points on the board last week and Pitt is more than capable of eclipsing that number. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (PITTSBURGH) - in non-conference games, in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Boise State after travelling out to the east coast and erasing a DD deficit for a win vs Florida State last week will now be in a letdown spot. Yes, it is the Broncos home opener, but according to my power rankings Marshall is the type of team that is built to stay competitive against this type of opponent via a already solid defence and offence that has enough returning starters to make some noise. 

Harsin is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of BOISE ST. Harsin is 1-9 ATS  after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of BOISE ST. 

CFB Home favorites (BOISE ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 16-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Marshall to cover 

The public seems to love this game to go over , but the public has a tendency to not delve to deeply into statistical data and trends. 

In preseason the Packers did not play their star QB Rodgers as well as two other key offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams so Im betting  it will take some time for the Packers to become cohesive offensively here tonight , especially considering they will be facing a Chicago Bears team that was first in weighted D last season, ranking first in pass efficiency and 2nd and run efficiency. Meanwhile, the Packers Defence, was upgraded in the off season, using their first two round picks to pick up  linebacker Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage, and then also acquiring free-agent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to bolster a tough hard nosed group. Im expecting barring injuries for the Packers D to be stringent this season and tonight.

Considering Bears QB Trubisky is getting a reputation for being sloppy with the ball , his play calling maybe limited by the coaches, and a more conservative game 1 plan could be in the cards. Note: The Bears offence ranked 30th in the league in pace last season, so "slow as she goes" could once be the mantra here tonight. 

Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games on a natural surface.Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC.

The L/10 times these teams have met the average combined score has in clicked in at 44.9 ppg. Bears home games have gone under 58% of the time since the 2016 campaign. Nagy in 6 games versus division opponents as the coach of CHICAGO has seen a combined average score of 43.7 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 53-22  UNDER since 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Scott Satterfield new era at Louisville will be tested when he  steps onto the field against Notre Dame with the most talented team overall he’s had in his coaching career. Admittedly Louisville . is a broken football program, that self disintegrated over the last few seasons and now has to be cautious moving forward. That Im betting is the game plan today vs a explosive Notre Dame fighting Irish team. The Cardinal have been a mistake prone team lacking discipline , but that is something the new head coach wont tolerate. Quote:“I can’t stand sloppy play. I can’t stand it,” Satterfield said during Monday’s press conference with the media. Im also betting that Louisville wont turn over the ball as much here , after ranking 126th in the nation last season. All and all Im backing the idea that Satterfilelds group keeps it simple , which Im betting makes for more of snail pace than many might believe is possible, which gives credence to my under wager recommendation here tonight. 

Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 non-conference gamesUnder is 7-3 in Fighting Irish last 10 games on fieldturf.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams met in the 2016 opener, and No. 15 Houston pulled a 33-23 stunner over the third-ranked Sooners. Oklahoma eventually won the Big 12 and beat Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, but the Sooners missed out on the playoff for the only time in the past four seasons.

Tonight in a game the public has pegged as a super shoot out, Im betting we have value with the under. Both offenses will once again be explosive. However, I am expecting the Sooners off season hiring of Alex Grinch from Ohio State to help the Sooners D immensely  .It must be noted that when he was with the Washington State Cougars of the PAC12 he knew very well how to handle that pass heavy conference. Meanwhile, Houston despite of still having a a capable attack, will still see a head coach Dana Holgorsen who in the past used pocket passers to move the ball efficiently. None of his previous QBS however were like  D’Eriq King  behind the 2nd adjusted pace. At W.Virginia they had a adjusted pace of 48th so there is a difference here that the Sooners new D could take advantage of, and subsequently slow down as this game progresses behind what will be a more aggressive pressure defence. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (OKLAHOMA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (HOUSTON) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 40-13 UNDER UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Im betting Fresno States D, remains their strong point, and that their 25 game streak of holding opponents to 30 points or less remains intact. Meanwhile, look for USCs core of 4 and 5 star recruits on D, to stand tall and limit Fresno States offence to a minimal output . Early on in the season Defences have an edge on offences and that gives me credence in my under projection here in game 1 for both teams in this non conference battle. 

FRESNO ST is 7-0 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg going on the board. FRESNO ST is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

USC is 18-6 L/24 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 with a combined average of 47.9 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

 Texas  upset Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, 28-21 and since than Longhorns nation has been standing proud. .  However, with  starting QB Ehlinger  now having to deal with three of his starting offensive linemen gone  and  current group RBs banged up in camp as per reports Im betting the sledding could be a lot tougher than many might expect.    On defence the Longhorns have to replace three starting defensive linemen, two LBs and both starting CBs.  I know that Texas will be motivated to honour former RB Cedric Benson who passed a couple of weeks ago in a motorcycle accident, but covering the number here could still prove difficult considering the alliterations  this  football program will have to endure here early in the season. Meanwhile, HC Skip  Holtz remains a very good coach and  operates and  recruits a never say die group of kids that have endured  five  1-point losses over the last three seasons. Im betting he once again makes life difficult for an opponent, and gets us the cover.  It must be noted that Texas has failed to cover 19 of their L/27 as non conference favs while Holtz on the other hand  thrives in the underdog role cashing  (49 of the L/63 times for a 77% conversion rate for bettors).Holtz is  also 34-16 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Bulldogs are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

LSU's Orgeron is a well liked coach,  but from a bettors perspective his backers may not be all that fond of   him considering his 0-4 ATS record in his last four non-conference home games, and his  1-4 ATS record as a favorite of 21 or more points. It must also be noted last season, against SE Louisiana a lower tier football team, the Bayou Bengals  looked very average and unmotivated. Today a under rated Georgia Southern team off a 10 win campaign must  not be underestimated in their abilities to find a way to cover here today vs a behemoth SEC foe.HC Chad Lunsfords reinstatement of the power running game, made GSouthern dangerous and nothing changes today. The Eagles are 3-0 ATS all time vs SEC and have covered 5 of their L/6 as 20 point or more underdogs. With Texas on board for Oregeron and company, the Tigers full attention, might be lacking making them unreliable favs here despite of public perceptions. 

LSU is 0-6 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on  Georgia Southern to cover 

Pittsburgh's QB Kenny Pickett is a veteran quarterback and under rated and , his receiving corps is of the top tier variety and wont be intimidated by Virginia's experienced D. Meanwhile, on my over rated charts,Cav QB Bryce Perkins is key here, as he and his team are expected by most pundits to win their conference this season. But today things wont come easily vs a well coached Panthers team that has won 4 straight in this series grabs the cash.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

UTSA has bigger and better athletes, and despite of what Incarnate Word was able to do in a lower tier division their out of their league ( co champions and undefated in San Antonio) and should be pounded by the Roadrunners as this tilt progresses. No one is going to take UIW for granted , thus Im expecting an all out effort by UTSA, which makes this an easy lay.

Play on UTSA to cover 

Lobos are in a transition season with new dynamics and schemes and are expected to possibly highlight four QBs today. Needless to say their cohesiveness could be tested. Meanwhile, the Sam Houston BearKats come in nationally ranked, 22nd in the preseason poll by Stats FCS, and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover here vs a team like New Mexico. 

Lobos are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.   Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in August. Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Lobos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.v  Lobos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Play on Sam Houston to cover 

The public is all over Alabama but it must be noted that  HC Saban has been inconsistent as a large favorite  covering just 11 of 33 games when favored by 30 or more points. Meanwhile, Duke HC Cutcliffe is 15-3 SU lifetime in season openers with the three losses coming by an average of 5.56 ppg. 

 The Blue Devils return the top two rushers and the most experienced part  of their defense. abd look fairly solid and more than capable of being competitive. Meanwhile, Alabama loses Damien Harris and most of the offensive line and it must also be noted that this game is being played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where  QB Tagovailoa had a bad game while looking uncomfortable playing on that surface ,converting just t 10-of-25 passes  for just  165 yards and 2 interceptions against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Could this environment trigger a PTSD event? Im betting it does . 

DUKE is 6-0 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.DUKE is 24-8 ATS in games played on turf.

ALABAMA is 8-19 ATS  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.DUKE is 28-13 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.

Take the points with Duke to cover 

 Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Mississippi State Bulldogs delivered  8 wins   last season and  ranked No. 1 in the nation in defence and this season Im betting their offence chips in and makes this side very under rated. Meanwhile, the Ragin Cajuns despite of a top tier recruiting class and success last season in a 7 win campaign, are over matched here today. The Cajuns might be out looking for revenge for a  56-10  smash down last season to the Bulldogs, but Im betting they will fail as they make it 36 straight losses to a SEC school. Note: UL-Lafayette are  an ugly 0-28 ATS in their last 28 SU home losses versus lined opponents.

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% covnersion rate for bettors.

Play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to cover 

Toledo continues to recruit top tier offensive players as was  evident by  scoring at least 50 points in six games during their  2018 campaign, and something that will aid them covering here today . Meanwhile, Kentucky is a depleted team  with players going to the NFL and other departures that no longer make them a contender in the SEC.    Mark Stoops has his work cut out for him this season, and some serious regression is not out of the question. It must be noted as far as this matchup is involved the Wildcats are being over rated in my humble betting opinion. Note Kentucky is  1-7 ATS as home favourite the past two seasons, while the Rockets are 7-2 ATS  in road openers . The MAC owns a 9-0 ATS L/9 record  vs SEC  opposition. 

KENTUCKY is 0-6 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (TOLEDO) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 61-27 L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toledo Rockets to cover 

This bet is not so much about Lovie Smiths Illinois even though Im betting they will be significantly better this season, but this bet is rather about  the matchup discrepancies here today , that favor Illinois. The Zips have a completely new coaching staff, and only have a couple returning starters on the defensive side of the ball back,  and a new offensive scheme that will take time to be cohesive.I know the MAC has a reputation for doing well against the Big10 in the past, but today the Big 1o will dominate .

Illinois in their 4 wins last season averaged 39.5 ppg so they can score when in a groove and should prove even better this season. Overall from a historical standpoint it must also be noted  that Illini have won 21 straight home openers by an average of 24 points per game. 

CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ILLINOIS) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry are 81-36 ATS  L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Illinois to cover 

Last season the Michigan State Spartans ranked 127th in scoring nationally  and put up an average of 8 ppg in their final 4 tilts. It was a frikin embarrassment. However, Im betting they will be improved this season , but tonight they might not show off their improved attack and playbook options  as the Spartys have a  reputation for staring slowly  failing to cover 4 of their L/5 openers and are also 0-6 ATS as home chalk of more than 17 points.  Meanwhile, Tulsa behind  head man Phil Montgomery have really been bitten the by the injury bug the last couple of seasons, but have remained fairly competitive  behind a under rated D as they have eight one-possession losses,  Note:The Golden Hurricane were ranked eighth in the country in pass defense last season. With alot of experience returning this season and Montgomerys need to post some wins to save his job Im betting on him pulling out all the stops this season. Considering  Tulsa  has covered 6 of their L/7 ATS as a under dog of 20 or more points they get my support here vs what we can usually count on to be a disinterested  Mark Dantonio group.

Play on the Tulsa Canes to cover 

Army had a tremendous season in 2018, and some regression must be expected this around especially with their two top Full Backs gone, and a new defensive coordinator in the fold . But hey Art Monkin has done a great job with the Black Knights and they should be fine this season. However today they go against a very under rated Rice squad with a huge amount of returning experience in the lineup, and with some luck the Owls won't be as injury prone as last season ie ( 4 QBS played last year). Army because of their recent success is now a public team but because of this we are getting a decent line to bet into here with the underdog, especially considering that I highly doubt that Army will open up their  playbook this week with Jim Harbaughs Michigan up next. I also expect the Knights may not play their starters late into this tilt, which gives credence to back door cover opportunities if need be. Note: Rice HC Bloomgren has said he has been preparing for Army's Triple option since last February. 

Rice has cashed 10 of their L/15 as 20 point or more dogs. Army has failed to cover 15 of their L/24 as DD favorites( 38%). Army is 4-11 ATS L/15 season openers. 

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (ARMY) - good defense from last season - allowed 315 or less total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 16-44 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rice Owls to cover 

Texas State Im betting is a under rated commodity here in game 1 vs respected   Texas A&M football program However, this Bobcats team is loaded with experienced  players  with 19 returning starters and the O-Line completely intact.  Meanwhile,  the Aggies, despite of a decent season last year, have to now endure a new batch of players on defence, having to replace 6 of 7 players in the front 7, which will effect them here today. With Clemson up next for Texas A&M concentrating on this matchup, could be difficult. Texas State has also been solid as an underdog of 20 or more points cashing 5 of their L/6 opportunities, and Im betting they don't roll over so easily here, and find the way to get us a cover on a almost 5 TD spread.

Bobcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in August.Aggies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.

Play on Texas State to cover 

Coach Chip Kelly has 19 returning starters in the lineup and come into this season with experience and momentum after outgunning 3 of their L/4 opponents last season. Meanwhile, the Bearcats despite of being fairly solid team  , are 0-4 ATS L/4 in non conference home games and according to my projections could get lit up by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB  Joshua Kelley who could have a big day vs a D, that has lost their 3 top players from last season.  With instate rivals Ohio State on deck, we may not see the Bearcats fully focused and unreliable favs. 

Play on the UCLA Bruins to cover 

The weather forecast in Hawaii is calling for hefty winds that are being estimated at   14 mph  for the entire course  of the game with nasty Gusts   30 mph expected. It must also be noted that despite of having star QB at the helm of the Hawaii offence, in Junior QB Cole McDonald , the coordinators do not run a speed formation, and it is methodical in nature. Meanwhile, Arizona with Khalil Tate  back at QB, and J.J. Taylor returning at RB after a 1,434-yard season that ranked 6th nationally will once again focus on their ground attack to move the chains which will eat up precious clock time. Im liking the under here in this Paradise Island game between a PAC 12 opponent and MWC foe.

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARIZONA) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 31 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning are 35-11 L/seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams were of the top tier variety on the defensive side of the ball last season, with both ranking in the top-25 nationally for total defense. Im betting on more of the same this season, and for this particular battle to be won on the defensive side of the ball in the trenches. Look for Redshirt freshman QB Jarren Williams to do more than enough to get the Canes to the promised land and get us the cover. 

This is a huge instate non conference  rivalry game that Im betting will be hard fought, thus making getting points a value investment option. 

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.

Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

CFB road team vs. the money line (FLORIDA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 3-23 SU L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate ( Average ppg differential clicks in at +12.5 ppg which makes this a strong ATS selection based on these above perimeters.)

Miami Fl to cover 

Yes, QB Tom Brady maybe the greatest NFL QB of our generation, and maybe of all time and his HC Bellichck one of the top coaching minds in all of football. But Im still going to pull the trigger on the unthinkable, and go with the Rams here this week at a +FG. Yes, even  despite of  watching Tom Terrific put on another dramatic show stopper a couple of weeks ago in the championship game to get the Pats to yet another Super Bowl. I also know how fortunate the Rams are to be here thanks in part to a blown call.  However, I still feel that Brady and his side kick Gronkowski have slowed down enough to not be as intimidating as they once were, and that the Pats D, is very beatable, as was the case in last seasons Super Bowl vs Philadelphia. Plus the Rams greater body of work this season, was actually superior to that of the Pats, and many at the start of this season including myself saw this LA team as a big time Super Bowl contender and deserving champs behind a deep talented team on both sides of the ball. So here we are and Im not going to waver here in my opinion, and will take a direct stance taking points with the underdog this Super Bowl Sunday in a neutral field environment. Hey its never easy going against the tide of early money, but it must be noted that the underdog has covered 9 of the L/11 Super Bowls and won 8 of those straight up. Im looking for recent history to repeat itself here as I go against the early money. 

The Rams are 8-0 against AFC opponents since head coach Sean McVay took over the team in 2017. The Patriots have  averaged just 23.3 points per game on the road this season, which was more than 10 points lower (33.8 PPG) than what they averaged at Foxboro. They had the second worst home/away scoring difference this season, only ranking behind  the Oakland Raiders .

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Everyone loves how explosive the KC Chiefs are offensively, but the Pats behind a future HOF QB and coach are a solid wager here as underdogs. 

In each of the last three games Tom Brady has started in which the Patriots were a dog by a field goal or less... the Pats have won by DDs. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last week.

Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS  in playoff games since 1992 and s 1-9 ATS  after gaining 400 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

NFL team vs the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 44-7 SU L/5 seasons and 11-1 SU this season! 

Play on New England to cover 

 Future HOF QB Tom Brady,  , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game  and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. 

 Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25  or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.

Play on the OVER 

 NFC Championship Game

The Rams. have played some of their best ball on the road going  14-3 SU away from the Coliseum under HC McVay,  dating back to last season and deserve our respect here as underdogs vs the New Orleans Saints.  The Rams D has been solid on the road this season, allowing an average of 19.9 ppg,  while it must be noted that the Saints offence has looked inconsistent down the stretch and have scored 14 or less points in 3 of their L/6 games, and only twice scored more than 20 points.  With that said, Im betting on the Rams keeping Drew Bree's and company to a minimum output while they themselves do enough damage to possibly  pull off the upset and more importantly cover the number. 

This  championship  round of the play offs has seen 13 lucky upset underdog winners since the  2000 campaign and I wont be surprised if the Rams add their names to that list after today.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team (265 or better  PY/game) against a poor passing defence (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rams to cover 

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final  regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall  again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting. 

Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch. 

NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia  are 0-27-1 UNDER  by an average  9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

NE super star future HOF QB Brady is 19-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 11-1 SU and Divisional Round tilts, and Im betting he gets another win here vs the Chargers here this Sunday afternoon in Fox-borough. He has also won all 7 meetings SU vs Rivers, and must not be underestimated  despite of the aging process in his ability to lead his team to a convincing victory here again at home and get us the cover. Note: Brady is 10-0-1 ATS in playoff victories when not favored by more than 6 points. 

NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - off 2 consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 5-26 L/35 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

New England to cover 

The Colts enter this game extremely underrated according to my matchup stats and power rankings, and this is evident by winning the stats battles 13 of their L/14 games overall. However, the books are playing to public sentiment knowing how much the public loves the Chiefs and their style of play, and have posted a over valued line on the board that favours the Colts in my humble opinion. It must be noted that the Chiefs did not play all that well down the stretch  covering only once in their L/5 overall and have a history of ugly play off performances losing 8 straight ATS at home including 6 straight SU here at Arrowhead. With the Colts Andrew Luck 2-0 SU at Arrowhead in his career is every bit as good as Chiefs QB  Patrick Mahomes and more experienced ,I expect a  Colts team that is 7-1 SU/ATS here in this venue  to have an  edge getting points . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS in playoff games since 1992.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 43-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama and Clemson can score against the best of defences, behind two of college football best QBs, Trevor Lawrence of the Tigers and the Crimson Tides Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, both these football teams  have top tier defences, but unlike last season Alabama's 24-6 victory vs the Tigers in the play offs last season, this time around Im betting the points will come fast and furious between these two behemoth opponents. ***( Field conditions are expected to be  good here in Santa Clara with all new turf in place)

Clemson has averaged 44.3 ppg on offence this season while Alabama has averaged 47.7 ppg.

ALABAMA is 7-0 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 this season with a. combined average of 70.7 ppg scored.

HC Swinney  in his L/19 road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better as the coach of CLEMSON has seen a combined average of 64.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Alabama has gone 14-0 SU against the nation's No. 23 schedule while Clemson' is 14-0 record has come against the nation's No. 32-ranked schedule  Alabama has won 16 straight tilts  while Clemson has won 14 in-a-row. According to my data, and power rankings these teams are evenly matched from an overall perspective and Im betting the points will be golden here in the National Championship game. 

ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS  in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 rushing or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.Swinney is 11-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of CLEMSON. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 38-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Clemson to cover 

The Philadelphia Eagles had to over come alot of struggles this season, to have a chance to defend their super bowl title and make it to the play offs. But now a new season begins here in the play offs vs a public sweet heart that has a lineup filled with players that generally has very little post season NFL experience. I know the Bears had a tremendous season, but under pressure vs a side that knows how to win big games  Im betting they are in trouble. Public money poured in on the Bears from the out set of the opening line, but sharp money has stormed back behind the Eagles and with that  I recommend we take the points here. 

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good passing team - with a completion pct of 60% or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Ravens league leading defence matches up well vs the Chargers offence as was evident only two weeks when they beat the Chargers in LA by a 22-10 count. After some early public  money came in on the Chargers the line sits at around 2.5 and is a viable option if we are backing Baltimore at home where they are 6-2 this season. 

LA CHARGERS is 0-6 ATS after playing their last game on the road this season.

Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.

NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or more  TO/game forced, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 54-5 SU L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate and a perfect 9-0 this season for a 100% conversion rate. 

NFL Favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 30-8 ATSL/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover 

 Seattles HC Pete Carroll always gets my respect, and in a key game like this Im betting his football knowledge and coaching abilities will help his hard nosed blue collar group come out on top and more importantly get us the cover vs a inconsistent Dallas crew. 

Dallas is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 37-23 ATS as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE. HC Garrett is 28-40 ATS in home games as the coach of DALLAS.Garrett is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. 

SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season and is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - mistake-free team (1.25  or lessTO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 29-9 L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover 

Houstons strength is stopping the run, but teams that can pass like the Colts are a more difficult type of opponent for the Texans. In the last meeting between these teams, Houston couldn't slow down Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Hilton had nine receptions for 199 yards, and Luck passed for 399 yards and two TDs in Indy's 24-21 win in Houston. A repeat type performance is not out of the question here and actually a high probability outcome according to my projections. 

HOUSTON is 1-9 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

O'Brien is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of HOUSTON.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - good team (outgain opp. by 40-100 YPG) against an average team (+/- 40 YPG) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 42-6 SU L/5 seasons and a perfect 9-0 this season! 

Play on the Indianapolis to cover 

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

Washington is a defence first team that will try to grind this clock down n methodical fashion vs an explosive Ohio State football team. Im betting they have enough success eating clock time to help keep this game on the low side of the total. 

Washington's HC Petersen is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games

WASHINGTON is 7-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 38.3 ppg. 

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team (440 YPG or more) against a team with a good defense (280 to 330 YPG), in non-conference games 35-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 57 (WASHINGTON) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 39-12 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

FIESTA BOWL - State Farm Stadium - Phoenix, AZ

UCF has won 25 straight games, and what Im betting  to happen here is that despite of them going against a very strong SEC team, without their starting QB McKenzie Milton, they wont go down without a fight . Look for highly talented backup Darriel Mack who led his team to a 56-41 come from behind victory vs Memphis in the season finale to lead this team again, and for this very athletic and deep UCF group to get us the cover . With almost a month to prepare for the Bayou Tigers, Im very sure the Knights  will be very ready to compete. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are just 13-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UCF to cover 

Kentucky plays a less conservative style of football in non non conference games, and have gone over 4 straight times vs non conference opponents and Im betting they open up here a bit this Tuesday and a game that Im betting will go over the total. 

Penn States HC Franklin is 9-1 OVER in games played on a neutral field in all games he has coached with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored.

Over is 5-0 in Nittany Lions last 5 non-conference games.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 neutral site games.Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 10-3 in Nittany Lions last 13 games following a straight up win.Over is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Nittany Lions last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 20-7 in Nittany Lions last 27 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Over is 7-3 in Nittany Lions last 10 games following a ATS win.Over is 13-6 in Nittany Lions last 19 games overall.

PENN ST is 9-1 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 66.6 ppg. PENN ST is 10-0 OVER  in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 74.2 ppg. PENN ST is 6-0 OVER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 58.9 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (KENTUCKY/PENN ST) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, in January games are 29-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

TAXSLAYER BOWL - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL

The Aggies are a physical team that can both run the ball well, and stop opposing run games. Im betting they make NC State one dimensional via the pass, which will make them easier to read. Meanwhile,  they themselves will pound the ball relentlessly on the ground, which will make for fast game that eats clock and keeps the total combined score on the low side of the number. 

NC STATE is 11-2 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NC STATE) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 77-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (TEXAS A&M) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 42-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

HOLIDAY BOWL - SDCCU Stadium - San Diego, CA

The Northwestern offense, has struggled at times this season, but they are still capable doing some damage here vs a top tier D.  Northwestern Im betting will have a lot more 3 and outs then first downs and will spend alot of time on the field defending a underrated Utah offence that has proved explosive at times this season, scoring more than 40 points 4 straight times, at one juncture of the season while averaging 37.7 ppg over a 8 game stretch. With that said, my projections estimate that the Utes put upwards of 30 points on the board, while Northwestern hits in the low 20s , in a game I have pegged to exceed the total. 

HC Whittingham in 18 games  versus poor rushing teams - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 61.1 ppg were scored and I his L/29 games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread has seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored

.Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

This total has been bet up since its opening with sharp money but still holds value even at this number to the over according to my own projections. 

Missouri is an explosive offensive side having averaged 36.9 ppg this season, while Oklahoma State has averaged 38.4 ppg.  Both defences have been less than spectacular with OK St allowing 34.6 ppg on the road, while Missouri has allowed 29.4 ppg. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.2 ppg scored and is 8-1 OVER after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 77.8 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

LIBERTY BOWL - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

We all know the Big 12 is all about offence, but when it counts there are teams like Oklahoma State that can be counted upon to make key stops. What Im betting here today is for the Cowboys to go toe toe and punch for punch with Missouri offensively, but in key junctures of the game to show their ability to stand tall. You have to remember Oklahoma State took on some extremely explosive offenses in Big 12 action  (ie Oklahoma ) and stood tall, losing by just one point 48-47 count, and have the capabilities to not only cover here but pull off the upset as more than TD dog. 

Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.Cowboys are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game 

MISSOURI is 3-12 ATS  in December games since 1992.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

REDBOX BOWL - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Michigan State has shown a propensity to not to be able to the move the chains consistently against any team  for most of this season. Their games are ugly in the trenches affairs, and the Spartans are like vultures just waiting around for fumbles and turnovers in an effort to try to find the end zone. Im betting the trend continues and Oregon musters out a win vs my nomination for  the Ugly Betty football team of the year. 

MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and  10-28 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 

OREGON is 30-9 ATS  L/39 after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half and  20-8 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

Pitt found its identity in a bruising rushing attack that leaned on the explosiveness of senior running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall and nothing will change today as they will move the chains via their ground attack and eat up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, Stanford is a one dimensional team that throws the majority of the time, and among all 129 FBS teams, only Washington State had fewer rushing attempts this season than Stanford. With no Bryce Love in the lineup today, as he sits out preparing for a NFL career, the Cardinal will be easy to read and their ability to go vertical will be a challenge, as well as getting points on the board.With that said, Im betting on this combined score not to eclipse this total. 


PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 14-4 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.2 ppg scored.PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.

STANFORD is 19-8 UNDER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a . combined average of 47 ppg scored.



CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (STANFORD) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) are 40-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 46.4 ppg scored.

Play UNDER ( Late Steam)

This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  and their hosts the  Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides.

 Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his  Week 16 win vs Washington with a  nagging  neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and  if  his  below average backup Blaine Gabbert  gets the call.Either way   Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow.  

 The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a  team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50,   they have gone under 14-straight straight times .

INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles need to win and they need the Bears to beat the Vikings to get into the playoffs. Needless to say, the Eagles need only worry about taking care of their business, here. However, Im betting Washington will not be so willing a participant in letting the Eagles get a free pass in  their home finale and will cherish the opportunity to play spoilers vs the defending Super Bowl champs. . The Eagles have struggled as visitors   this season overall  as they are just 3-4 on the road, with the average point differential clicking in at -3.2. Eagles 23.1 Opp 26.3. Im recommending we go on the take .

Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Eagles are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC East.Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Redskins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.

WASHINGTON is 17-3 ATS L/20 versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6 or less yards/play in the second half of the season.

WASHINGTON is 22-6 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. 

 PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Washington Redskins to cover 

Oklahoma has a record-setting quarterback too, in Kyler Murray. The Sooners led the FBS in scoring offense with 49.5 points per game and are capable of lighting up anyone including this tough Alabama D. Oklahoma, however, ranked No. 96 in scoring defense (32.4). With the Tie equally explosive in my humble opinion, the only way the  Sooners  have any chance of winning or being competitive in  this tilt is for this to be a shootout. Which Im betting it will be.  Both Alabama and Oklahomas QBs do a lot of damage right out of the gate. Tagovailoa, has a 207.3 passer rating with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in the first half and Murray,   has also been  explosive in the first half, this season with a 215.2 passer rating, 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, ranked No. 13 in red zone offense and scored 42 touchdowns in 63 visits. Alabama scored 48 touchdowns in 68 red zone visits. This has the making of an epic high scoring battle, and the total is not high enough. 

OKLAHOMA is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 95.5 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 105.6 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA is 21-9 OVER L/30 when the total is greater than or equal to 70   with a combined average of 83.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

ARIZONA BOWL - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ

The Red Wolves completed the 2018 regular season with an 8-4 overall record and as the Sun Belt Conference West Division co-champions.Nevada completed its regular season with a 7-5 overall record and finished tied for second in the Mountain West Conference’s West Division. My cross reference power rankings suggest that Arkansas State has the edge. 

 ARKANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1992.

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas State to cover 

CAMPING WORLD BOWL - Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL

West Virginia quarterback Will Grier will not participate in the Camping World Bowl against Syracuse as he begins preparing for the 2019 NFL draft. Thus we have a situation where Im betting this total is just to high. 

SYRACUSE is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons, which happened in their last game of the reg season.SYRACUSE is 31-16 UNDER L/47 in road games in games. 

Play UNDER 

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN

Purdue got some very good news when Jeff Brohm turned down Louisville and stayed at Purdue , and he now gets a huge amount of respect from the kids he coaches, and Im now betting they will play hard for him in this tilt against the Tigers. The Purdue offense finished 14th in the country in yards per play at 6.53 and Im betting Auburns pedestrian attack will not be able to keep up. Look for QB David Blough  who  completed 66.6% of his passes, and he threw for 25 touchdowns to shine in this Bowl tilt and lead his team to a cover. 

PURDUE is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Purdue to cover 

This is essentially a home game for Baylor here  in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. With key WR Jalen Hurd out for the Bears, some might think their now not a viable choice here, but they would be mistaken, as the Bears have a couple of options at their disposal and ready to reset their look vs a Vanderbilt D, that has looked atrocious at times this season. 

Baylor HC Rhule is 10-2 ATS in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he ha coached and  29-15 ATS  as an underdog in all games he has coached. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BAYLOR) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 73-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Baylor

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the 2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.A year ago, Miami went through the regular season at 10–2 before losing to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl and now revenge is on board. Miami after a mid season swoon,  went on to win its final two regular- season tilts against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh in dominating fashion, largely because of its defense that ranks No.2 in the nation in Total D.  With that said, Look for the Badgers passing game to stall vs an impressive Canes secondary and for their key mode of moving the chains RB Johnathon Taylor to find the sledding tough vs a staunch physical D. Meanwhile, Miami will find a way to score enough points here vs a inconsistent Wisconsin D and get us the win and cover. 

MIAMI is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Richt is 8-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Miami fl to cover 

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

Both these teams have solid defences, but when they played last year in this Bowl game the Badgers won 34 to 24 vs Miami Fl, and Im expecting a similar scoring output this time around by both sides.

Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 vs. Big Ten.

Over is 10-3 in Badgers last 13 games following a ATS loss.Over is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.Over is 18-7-1 in Badgers last 26 games following a straight up loss.Over is 5-2 in Badgers last 7 games in December.

Over is 10-2-1 in Badgers last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB  teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MIAMI) - off a win against a conference rival, in December games are 43-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

INDEPENDENCE BOWl - Independence Stadium - Shrevport, LA

Temple has put alot point son the board this season, but Duke's a team that has shown some strong  D ,  and is capable of slowing them. Meanwhile, Duke 's offence has really struggled coming into this game, scoring 6 and 7 points in back to back games and now vs a staunch Temple D, their output Im betting will once again be muted.

DUKE is 7-0 UNDER  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 40 ppg scored and 7-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored and is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 season with a combined average score of 43.3 ppg scored.DUKE is 7-0 UNDER L/7 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

TEMPLE is 16-3 UNDER after allowing 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 44.2 ppg going on the board. 

Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEMPLE) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 39-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

CHEEZ-IT BOWL - Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Following a seven-win regular season that saw the Golden Bears rank among the best defensive teams in the country, the young men from Berkeley look like the matchup well vs TCU. The Golden Bears won four of their next five games with victories at Oregon State and against Pac-12 champion Washington starting the run and more than capable of upending a  inconsistent  and over rated TCU side. 

Cal has played twice in the game now known as the Cheez-It Bowl with victories in both contests and get the nod again.

TCU  is 12-26 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.TCU is 3-11 ATS  in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.TCU is 0-6 ATS with rest or after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

CALIFORNIA is 9-2 ATS  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on California to cover 

 QUICK LANE BOWL - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Georgia Techs option offense that leads the nation in rushing will pound the ball continuously today against.ground today. Meanwhile, Minnesota, via a more traditional run game will also pound the ball on the ground all day . With that said, Im betting this is going to be a very fast Bowl game that eats alot of clock time . This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

Johnson is 14-3 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 games in December.Under is 6-2 in Golden Gophers last 8 non-conference games.Under is 5-2 in Golden Gophers last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 6-2 in Yellow Jackets last 8 bowl games.Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (GEORGIA TECH) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 41-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Its become obvious that KC is a one dimensional team, with an explosive offence and a atrocious porous defence, that is worse than horrible vs opposing ground games allowing 5 ypc. on average. Thats not a good omen against the Seattle team that can run the ball well. The Chiefs are currently down trending after three straight losses including a heart breaking 27-26  defeat to the LA Chargers last Monday night in the final play of the game and don't look like viable favs here in an emotional letdown own spot .  But hey the public money loves Patrick Mahomes, and in some ways I can't blame them, as he is entertaining as heck to watch. But from an imperial standpoint , KC is like a big heavy weight puncher looking for the KO, always leaving them selves open for counter punches and in turn getting knocked out themselves.  Thats why Carroll the ultimate tactician Im betting will take the Chiefs apart little by little here this Sunday evening and then deliver big blows .

Bottom line here Win or lose taking the points here is just the right thing to do , especially since standing in the line with square bettors is not an appetizing prospect. 

Meanwhile, Seattle is a side. that looks much more balanced and a side that plays their best football at home and better prepared ready to bounce back off a hard fought 26-23 loss to a SF team that was hell bent on taking them down in revenge mode. Note: Underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are good long term bets going 38-13 ATS L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion for bettors on the blind. Pete Carroll is also  11-0 SU  when coming off a SU favorite loss and the Seahawks are powerful 11-1 SU  after batting with the Forty Niners, including 5-0 SUATS at home,  and 5-1  ATS as a home dog behind QB Russell Wilson.

SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games. Carroll is 12-2 ATS in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992. Carroll is 22-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. 

Seattle to cover 

Cleveland is up trending but now they're  suddenly a favourite of more than TD against a long time division rival. In my humble opinion, Im betting we have a over reaction to their recent 4-1 SU/ATS run. It is definitely  some tasty bait for a willing public to bite and bet into. At the time of this analysis,   a great deal of square dollars and tickets were backing them this week according to data. Im not saying the sharp money is always right, but more often than not, that's the case , and in this situation I  have no problem fading the public. It must be noted that the last time the Browns were more than 7 point fav was back in the 2010 and that game  they barely got by the Panthers by 1 point. Hey , I know the Browns  are looking good behind emerging star QB Baker Mayfield, and I also know the Bengals have struggled for most of this season, however, this is a  rivalry  game and Im  betting the Bengals with momentum off a  lopsided win last week, won't be giving the Browns a free pass here, and will primed to compete in a revenge scenario for a loss they suffered to them earlier this season, which snapped a 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series.

CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Home teams (CLEVELAND) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 4-23 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover