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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-16-19||Browns -6.5 v. Jets||Top||23-3||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns -6.5)
I maybe could have got to taking New York as a small home dog with Darnold, but no way am I putting my money on Trevor Siemian. Going back to 2016, out of all the quarterbacks with a 1,000 plays, he’s got the worst QBR out of all of them at 42.1. Just slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler at 46.1, Eli Manning at 47 and Blake Bortles at 48.6.
I think the Browns defense is going to make it really difficult on this Jets offense with Siemen under center. I have to think they are going to load the box to keep Bell in check and dare him to make plays down the field.
I also think Cleveland’s defense is a lot better than people might be thinking after they gave up 43 points to the Titans. That was a 15-13 game in the 3rd quarter before Tennessee’s Derrick Henry caught a 75-yard TD pass. Browns started pressing and gave up 21 points in the 4th.
As for Cleveland’s offense, the biggest thing people need to realize with that poor showing is they were going up against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were also 6th in the league vs the pass. I think the Browns thought it was going to be a lot easier than it turned out to be.
I think this is a good spot for the Browns offense to get back on track. I wouldn’t read anything into the Jets strong defensive game against the Bills. Buffalo’s offense looks to be every bit as anemic as it was in 2018. Jets defense should be improved, but you have to wonder how they can hold up with an offense that figures to struggle to score. Give me the Browns -6.5.
|09-15-19||Bears -2.5 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-110||90 h 60 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago bouncing back from that ugly showing in Week 1. Bears offense looked really bad in a 10-3 loss to the Packers, but I think people are really underestimating how good Green Bay is defensively this year. The game plan wasn't up to par and I don't see Matt Nagy and his staff laying another egg here.
More than anything, this is no where close to the Broncos teams of years past. Denver still has Von Miller, but are not nearly as good in the secondary Derek Carr only had 4 incompletions and wasn't sacked once.
I also did not like what I saw from Joe Flacco and that Denver offense. He made some really poor throws on what should have been easy completions. The offensive line is not great and they lack some serious playmakers at the skill positions. Chicago's defense will eat this offense up. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-15-19||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||9-27||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago.
I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here.
Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5!
|09-15-19||Jaguars +9 v. Texans||12-13||Win||100||99 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL EASY MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Jaguars +9)
I'll take my chances here with the Jags getting a big number against the Texans. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Jaguars ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and the fact they lost their starting quarterback in Foles. No way is the public going to want to back Jacksonville on the road and I feel the books are taking full advantage of that by posting an inflated number.
The biggest thing for me and the Jaguars lopsided loss to Kansas City, is I wasn’t the least bit surprised. The Chiefs were one of my favorite plays in Week 1. There’s not many teams in the NFL that can score with Kansas City. I’m not about to write off Jacksonville’s defense because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and all those weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, I still think it’s one of the more talented defensive units in the league.
I think that defense is going to have a big bounce back performance against the Texans. Clearly there’s still a lot of problems with the Houston offensive line if Watson is getting hit 11 times and sacked 6 times. While the Jags didn’t record a sack in Week 1, they put a ton of pressure on Mahomes. I think they can control the line of scrimmage and force some big turnovers with that pressure.
As for as the Foles injury is concerned, that’s a tough blow for this team. However, I watched that entire game and I was really impressed with what I saw from Gardner Minshew in relief. If wasn’t against a Chiefs defense that no one thinks highly of, I think people would be raving about how well this kid played in his first NFL action. I don’t care who it’s against, you are doing something right if you complete 22 of 25 for 275 against a defense that knows you have to throw playing from behind.
I get the Saints are great offensive team, but at the same time, this not as talented a defense without Clowney in the front seven. Not only did Brees carve them up for 370 yards and 2 scores, New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards/carry on the ground.
Best part about all of this is we don’t need the Jaguars to win. All they have to do is lose by single-digits and I think they do that without any problem.
|09-15-19||49ers +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||41-17||Win||100||86 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.
I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.
When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.
While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.
As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!
|09-15-19||Bills v. Giants +2||28-14||Loss||-110||86 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +2)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a home dog against the Bills. Buffalo has no business being a road favorite here. The Bills pulled out a 17-16 win against the Jets in Week 1, but trailed 16-0 in the 3rd quarter before the Jets imploded.
No way do I trust that Buffalo offense on the road. Josh Allen threw 2 picks and I'm not really sold on the Jets defense. Giants didn't look great in a 35-17 loss to the Cowboys, but Dallas looks like it has the goods this year. New York was also a lot more competitive than the final score, as they were only outgained by 24 yards and actually had 2 more first downs.
Eli Manning played really well with 306 yards on 30 of 44 passing. If he keeps playing like that this offense is going to be just fine with how much teams have to respect the run game with Saquan Barkley. I think NY wins and wins big. Give me the Giants +2!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||45 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)
I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.
I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.
I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.
While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.
Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||3-33||Loss||-120||22 h 14 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/PAT SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Steelers +6)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers to cover the 6 at New England. Note that I like this before the Pats added Antonio Brown. I like it even more after the news. The fact that Belichick and Brady got Brown has to absolutely piss off the Steelers. Keep in mind they blocked a trade with NE because they didn't want him to go a rival. I think it's a bit of a distraction for NE and more than anything, I like the talent the Steelers have on both sides of the ball. Give me Pittsburgh +6!
|09-08-19||49ers +1.5 v. Bucs||31-17||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers at basically a pick'em at Tampa Bay. I really like Bruce Arians, but I'm not convinced he's going to have Tampa into a serious NFC contender in his first season. I don't trust Jameis Winston in the slightest with his decision making. As for the 49ers, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people realize. Jimmy G is a franchise QB and they got all kinds of first round talent on that defensive front. I think SF will be living in the Bucs backfield and could turn this into a blowout. Give me the 49ers +1.5!
|09-08-19||Lions v. Cardinals +3||Top||27-27||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3!
|09-08-19||Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars||Top||40-26||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3!
|09-08-19||Titans v. Browns -5.5||43-13||Loss||-105||15 h 56 m||Show|
40* TITANS/BROWNS ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Browns -5.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland winning by at least 6 at home against the Titans. I don't think this is going to be close at all. I get the Browns are getting a ton of hype, but for good reason. Tennessee just doesn't impress me that much and that offense looked horrific in the preseason. I don't see them coming out and lighting up this Browns defense, which I think is better than people realize. Give me the Browns -5.5!
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears -3||Top||10-3||Loss||-110||261 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.
I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.
I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.
I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.
On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||24-10||Loss||-110||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL VEGAS ATS MASSACRE (Vikings -4.5)
I think the perception a lot of people are going to have when they look at this line, is there’s value with the Bears getting more than field goal, as they see Chicago still has something to play for with the No. 2 seed up for grabs and most consider the Bears to be the better team at this point.
I’m not buying Chicago being all-in for this game. I think head coach Matt Nagy is saying all the right things here, with how they aren’t going to assume the Rams are going to win and will play their starters, but I’m confident the players know just how unlikely a scenario it is that LA loses at home to the 49ers.
Not to mention, even if they do show up 100% invested in this game, it’s not out of the question they see the Rams are in complete control early and decide to rest some guys in the second half. I also think they are going to be extra cautious with any injuries that some of their players are dealing with. For example, I would be shocked if safety Eddie Jackson plays even though he’s listed as questionable.
I really think the most important thing for the Bears was to lock up the No. 3 seed, which they did last week. That ensures that they won’t have to travel to New Orleans until at least the NFC Championship Game, if they were to advance that far.
Minnesota on the other hand is basically in a do-or-die scenario and you can count on a playoff-like atmosphere at US Bank Stadium on Sunday. I just don’t think people realize how big a home field edge they have. Since head coach Mike Zimmer came to Minneapolis, the Vikings have gone 29-11 ATS at home, including a 23-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. This also a series that has been dominated by the home team, as the home side is an impressive 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these two teams. Give me the Vikings -4.5!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-23-18||Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers||24-10||Win||100||24 h 59 m||Show|
40* NFL ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Falcons -2.5)
I had Atlanta circled as a play this week after Carolina's loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football. I only like it that much more, given that the Panthers are all but throwing in the towel on the season by sitting Cam Newton to rest his injured shoulder. That tells me this team knew that their only hope of making the playoffs was to win that game at home against New Orleans. You could see it on the players faces at the end of that game.
I just think it’s a really difficult thing to go from playing in what feels like a do-or-die situation, not getting the job done and then have to come out and just play for fun the very next week. The life was sucked out of this team when they lost to the Saints.
Keep in mind the Panthers are going to Taylor Heinicke, who has attempted 5 career passes in his 3 seasons in the NFL. I just think he’s going to struggle to play well in this offense. Carolina doesn’t have a go-to receiver and you can bet that Atlanta is going to put all of their attention on Christian McCaffrey.
As for the Atlanta offense, they finally got back some of their mojo. The Falcons put up 435 yards and 40 points last week against the Cardinals. Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 231 yards and 2 scores and I look for them to have no problem exposing this Carolina defense.
I also want to point out that a big reason the Falcons have underachieved this year is the injuries they were dealt early on the defensive side of the ball. They are in a lot better shape on that side of the ball going into the final weeks. They racked up 7 sacks last week against the Cardinals and in just his 3rd game back after missing the previous 10 games, Deion Jones returned a pick for a touchdown. It really seems like that Atlanta defense feeds off of his energy.
Given everything I have covered, I actually think this line should be closer to touchdown than a field goal, as I think the Falcons are going to have this thing in the bag by the half. Give me Atlanta -2.5!
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -1.5||30-32||Win||100||24 h 55 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Eagles -1.5)
I know Philadelphia has been a major disappointment this year, but for the first time in a long time, we saw this team resemble the team that won it all. The Eagles played inspired last week against the Rams and there’s clearly something about having their backs against the wall and Nick Foles at quarterback that brings out the best in this team.
I see no reason not to expect more of the same against the Texans, who I’m starting to think might be the biggest fraud of them all. The more you look back over Houston’s schedule, the harder it becomes to trust this team. Their only win against a team that’s currently in line to make the playoffs is a 19-16 overtime win at home against the Cowboys back in Week 5 before Dallas landed Amari Cooper.
Sure the defense is good, but I’m not so sure it’s as good as people think. They certainly haven’t played many top notch quarterbacks and when they have they have struggled. I know Foles isn’t an elite signal caller, but I think this Eagles offense will be able to move the ball on their home field.
My biggest concern with the Texans is they are struggling to consistently run the ball and are having an absolute miserable time trying to protect Deshaun Watson. The Jets sacks Watson 6 times last week and he’s been sacked 52 times on the year. If he’s sacked 8 more times over the next two games, he’ll become the seven NFL quarterback to be sacked at least 60 times in a single season.
This Eagles defensive front is not one you want to face if protecting the quarterback is a problem. Philadelphia only had 2 sacks on Jared Goff, but harassed him all night long. I think Watson is in for a long day and the more desperate team wins here. Give me the Eagles -1.5!
|12-22-18||Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers||22-10||Win||100||27 h 35 m||Show|
40* NFL SATURDAY ATS MASSACRE (Ravens +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and grab the points with Baltimore. I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction with this line on the Chargers. I’m not saying Los Angeles shouldn’t be favored, but 4.5 is a lot in a game that doesn’t figure to be decided until the 4th quarter.
I actually like the Ravens to win this game. Baltimore has been a different team since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. They are 4-1 under Jackson with the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City, where the Chiefs had to convert multiple 4th downs just to force extra time.
I’m skeptical of Jackson being able to do what he’s doing long-term, as mobile quarterbacks have a pretty short shelf-life, especially ones that aren’t built like Cam Newton.
However, that’s not a problem right now and he’s transformed this team with his ability to torment defenses with his legs. Since he took over at quarterback the Ravens aren’t just a good rushing team, they are elite. In his 5 starts, Baltimore is averaging a ridiculous 230.8 ypg.
It’s a deadly combination with a top notch defense, as the Ravens are able to eat up the clock and keep the opposing offenses off the field. No better recipe to win on the road against Philip Rivers and the Chargers then to keep No. 17 on the sidelines.
I know that there’s a ton at stake for Los Angeles in this game, but I’m also a bit concerned they could suffer a bit of a letdown after that big win over the Chiefs. Win or lose, they are going to the playoffs.
The same can’t be said for Baltimore. The Ravens simply can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs. I think they get the job done and worst case keep it close enough to cover. Give me Baltimore +4.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||92 h 26 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying the short number with Indianapolis at home. I just think this is the right spot to play against the Cowboys, as I not only think they are getting way too much respect here on the road against a red-hot Colts team, but I also feel like this is a big time letdown spot for Dallas.
With that win over the Eagles the Cowboys all but locked up the NFC East. They not only have a 2-game lead over both the Eagles and Redskins, but they will also hold the tie breaker against both teams, meaning the only way Dallas doesn’t win the division is if they lose out and either Washington or Philadelphia win their final 3 games. I think it’s pretty safe to say the Redskins won’t be going 3-0 over the final 3 weeks with all the injuries they have been dealt and the Eagles are likely to lose at the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I actually think there’s a really good chance that the Cowboys lose this game and still end up waking up Monday as the NFC East winners.
There’s zero doubt in my mind that Dallas hasn’t played these scenarios out in their head, which is why I think it will be so difficult for them to show up here with the kind of mindset it will take to beat a team that’s playing as well as the Colts.
It’s also worth pointing out that Ezekiel Elliott is banged up and while he’s expected to play, I got a good feeling the Cowboys are going to limit his touches after he had 40 last week against the Eagles. Not to mention the Dallas offensive line could be without stud right guard Zack Martin, who is dealing with a knee injury.
The Colts don’t have the luxury of taking this game or any of their final 3 off. It’s unlikely Indianapolis will be able to catch the Texans in the AFC South and one of the Wild Card spots is going to either the Chiefs or Chargers, which means there’s only one spot up for grabs.
This has also historically been a great time to back the Colts, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games off an upset win as a road dog. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas is just 2-4 on the road compared to 6-1 at home. Cowboys are also a mere 3-11 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Give me the Colts -2.5!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||17 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Packers +6)
I just can’t pass up getting almost a touchdown with Aaron Rodgers, especially with the Packers’ backs against the wall. As sweet as it would be for the Bears to clinch the NFC North on their home field against Green Bay after 4 straight seasons of finishing last in the division, I got a sneaky feeling that Rodgers is going to find some way to spoil Chicago’s celebration.
I was actually on the Packers last week in their blowout win against the Falcons, as I expected this team to respond in a real positive way to the firing of McCarthy. I think Rodgers was sick and tired of his play calling and just the overall effort was way better. There’s also just something about this team, when it’s a do-or-die situation, they always seem to find a way to win.
I get the Bears haven’t forgot about that Week 1 loss to the Packers, but this far from a must-win for Chicago and there’s a chance they come out flat off that emotional win at home last week against the Rams.
While the Bears were able to upset Los Angeles, the offense didn’t have the same look to it in Mitch Trubisky’s return to the lineup. I think there’s still some rust he has to shake off and this Green Bay defense is certainly capable of slowing him down.
I also want to point out how not so far fetched it is for Green Bay to make the playoffs. There’s 4 teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card. Three of those are the Eagles Panthers and Redskins. Carolina has to play the Saints and the Eagles visit the Rams this week, while Washington is a complete mess with Josh Johnson starting at quarterback. That leaves the Vikings, who are only 1-game ahead of them and Minnesota has not exactly been playing great football of late.
It’s also worth noting that Rodgers has absolutely owned the Bears in his career. Green Bay is 17-4 (15-6 ATS) in games that Rodgers starts against the Bears and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts at Soldier Field. Give me the Packers +6!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Vikings +3)
No disrespect to Seattle, but I just don’t think this team is the real deal. They have been very fortunate in a number of games and outside of their two games against the Rams, they really haven’t played anyone. The only team they have beat that currently has a winning record is the Cowboys and that was way back in Week 3 when Dallas was lost offensively.
Their 43-16 win over the 49ers looks great if you just focus on the final score, but they let Nick Mullens complete 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores. In their previous win at Carolina, they were outgained by the Panthers 476-397 and that was more of the Panthers beating themselves than anything. Even the game before that, where they beat the Packers 27-24 at home, they trailed 14-3 early and were down 4 late in the 4th quarter.
As for Minnesota, I think now is the time to jump on the Vikings after that ugly loss at New England. I think people are overreacting to that game. A lot of teams go to Foxboro in December and don’t play well. The Vikings only other two losses since Week 4 are a loss at home to the Saints and a loss at Chicago.
I also like the matchup here. I think Seattle’s defense can be exposed and they come in ranked just 17th against the run (116.8 ypg) and 18th vs the pass (266.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Seahawks offense is all about their running game, which leads the league at 148.8 ypg. The Vikings aren’t a team you want to line up against and try to pound the rock. Minnesota is 7th at stopping the run, giving up only 99.2 ypg and 3.7 yards/carry. Vikings are also 10th vs the pass, so don’t expect Russell Wilson to save the day.
History is also on our side, as you don’t want to be betting on the Seahawks off a big win. Seattle is a mere 4-17 ATS in their last 21 off a win over a division rival by 21 or more and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games when off a win by 21 or more against any opponent.
Minnesota is 20-8 ATS under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss and 14-4 ATS when that previous loss was on the road. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||23-29||Loss||-115||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SLAUGHTER (Eagles +3.5)
Even though the Eagles have burned me on multiple occasions this season, I'm grabbing the points with Philadelphia. This is just one of those games that I don’t see being decided until the 4th quarter and that makes the 3.5-points that much more valuable. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if this thing came down to a field goal in the final minutes. Keep in mind it was 20-20 with less than 4 minutes to play in the first meeting between these two teams.
I know there’s a lot of excitement right now with the Cowboys and their 4-game winning streak, but I’ve still got major concerns with the offense. It just relies so much on the running game that they are going to constantly find themselves in close games. All 4 wins during this streak have come by 8-points or less.
As for the Eagles, I think there’s some legit signs that this team could be getting ready to peak offensively. The run game has been greatly improved since they started giving rookie Josh Adams the bulk of the carries. They also just recently got back Darren Sproles, who I think is going to be huge coming out of the backfield to negate all that pressure Dallas likes to bring. Wide out Golden Tate, who they acquired in a trade is also coming off his best game, catching 7 passes for 85 yards and a score.
I know it hasn’t been up to the ridiculous level that he was playing at prior to getting hurt last year, but I like Carson Wentz to deliver in the big game and there’s not been a bigger game to date for Philadelphia than this one. That’s another thing. Dallas is coming off a massive upset win at home and those are the type of games that are tough to bounce back from.
Unlike the Eagles, their backs aren’t up against the wall and it’s not easy beating a team from your same division twice in one year (Dallas won 27-20 in WK 10). In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the same team in this series won both games during the regular-season.
It’s also worth pointing out just how dominant the road team has been at covering the spread. In the last 14 meetings the road team is 11-3 ATS. Philadelphia is also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games when revenging a same season loss. Give me the Eagles +3.5!
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -6||24-27||Loss||-115||21 h 28 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Chiefs -6)
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, where they have outscored opponents by 16.2 points/game. That’s not just the result of a couple blowouts either. All 5 of the Chiefs wins at home have come by at least a touchdown.
I don’t think it’s going to be any different against the Ravens, who I think are a bit overvalued right now. Not to take anything away from Lamar Jackson and his 3-0 record as a starter, but it’s come against teams who are out of the playoff race in the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons.
I also think we are getting a good price on the Chiefs here due to the fact that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. There’s also going to be those that think the Ravens have a shot here because of their defense. They were saying the same thing when the Jaguars came to Kansas City back in Week 5 and the Chiefs did whatever they wanted in a 30-14 victory.
I also think there’s some doubters out there with KC now that they no longer have Kareem Hunt. I’m not going to say they are better without him, but I also don’t think his absence is that big a deal with this team. As long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes and all those weapons on the outside, defenses will have no choice but to respect the pass and that’s going to allow for whoever runs to pick up big yards.
The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards in their first game without Hunt, which was their best mark since Week 7 and second highest total of the season. The offense has also played the last few games without wideout Sammy Watkins, but he’s back practicing and expected to suit up.
As for the defense, I think the Chiefs are more than capable of slowing down the Ravens offense. While Kansas City is giving up 27.2 ppg, they are only allowing 17.6 ppg at home. That stop unit really feeds off the home crowd, which I think is the best in the league when this team is playing well.
I actually think it works in Kansas City’s favor that Jackson is getting the start, because I don’t think you can beat this team without being able to throw the football effectively. Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any start and has just 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions. If Baltimore’s defense struggles at all against that KC offense early, things could spiral out of control if the Chiefs get a double-digit lead and the Ravens are forced to throw more than they would like.
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs a team from the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a wining record. Ravens on the other hand have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. Give me Kansas City -6!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -4||20-34||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Packers -4)
I'll take my chances with Green Bay covering the short number here at home against the Falcons. A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed.
It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.
I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.
Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta's offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).
I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.
I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.
Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -4!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* TITANS/JAGUARS TNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Titans -5)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -5!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDSKINS/EAGLES MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Redskins +6)
I get the Eagles were able to rally to beat the Giants and all the talk is about how that win might have saved their season. I’m more focused on the fact that they let New York come into their house and take a 19-3 lead in a game they absolutely had to have.
I just think because the Eagles won it all last year and everyone thought they were going to be this juggernaut and defend their title, we are quick to look for any positive we can and ride with it. I mean they are almost a touchdown favorite at home with a record of 5-6 and having just failed to cover almost the exact same number at home last week against a worst team than the one they are playing.
The public has continued to back the Eagles to this point, so chances are they won’t stop now, especially with Washington playing now without Alex Smith. I like Smith and think he can help a team win a lot of regular-season games, but I don’t think he’s light years better than Colt McCoy.
McCoy did struggle some against Dallas, but that’s a really good Cowboys defense. The Eagles simply aren’t that good of a defensive team. They come in ranked 28th against the pass (294.4 ypg) and are giving up a ridiculous 134.6 rushing yards/game over their last 6 contests. I think Adrian Peterson will be ready to rock on Monday Night Football and Washington will be able to put up some points.
On the flip side of this, I think the Redskins defense is more than capable of slowing down this Eagles offensive attack. Philadelphia’s two highest scoring games this season have both come against the Giants. They haven’t scored more than 24 in any other game and 7 times have failed to score more than 21 points.
I think there’s a really good shot Washington can at worst keep this within 6-points. In fact, I think they are going to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me the Redskins +6.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-125||91 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers -3)
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* TITANS/TEXANS MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Texans -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston to win by 4 or more at home against the Titans. I know the Texans keep finding themselves in close games, which might have some thinking to take the points, but I just can't stomach betting an offense like Tennessee on the road in a prime time game against a defense as talented as the Texans.
What this line suggest is that these two would be a pick'em if the game was played on a neutral field. I have Houston rated way ahead of the Titans, as I think the days of consistently winning games with your defense are numbered. Tennessee has two games this year where they failed to reach 85 yards passing. They had just 176 last week at Indy and that's not a top-tier secondary.
Houston comes in 13th against the pass and are 6th against the run. While they scored 20 in the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 2, they scored on a 66-yard pass on a fake punt and had just 283 total yards for the game (Houston had 437). Titans only averaging 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg on the road.
Houston is averaging 25.7 ppg and 383 ypg at home. I just think they will have the much easier time scoring and there's a much higher chance they win by a touchdown than lose or win by 3 or less. Give me the Texans!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-25-18||Raiders v. Ravens -10.5||17-34||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -10.5)
I know laying big numbers in the NFL isn't a good recipe for success, but the more I look into this game the more I like Baltimore to win here in a blowout. I just don't think it's asking the Ravens that much to win here by two touchdowns.
Oakland maybe it pretty clear that they weren't interested in winning games this year, when they traded Mack right before the season started. That was just the start, as they later traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Sure they won at Arizona last week, but needed a last-second field goal to do so. The two previous games they were outscored 54-9.
This team had to pull Derek Carr a few weeks ago on MNF against the 49ers because the o-line couldn't block. Baltimore's defensive front is every bit as nasty and strong as SF, so I have a really hard time seeing the Raiders putting together too many scoring drives.
On the flip side of this, the Ravens have Lamar Jackson at quarterback, who made his debut last week against the Bengals. Jackson rushed for 119 yards and threw for 150 on 13 of 19 passing. He wasn't just a force on the ground, but Baltimore as a team put up 267 yards rushing, averaging 5 yards/rush.
I got my concerns with Jackson, as you can only run for so long at the QB position. Good defenses are going to make you pay for running it and also not let you out of the pocket. Lucky for Jackson, Oakland is not a good defense and are 31st in the league vs the run, allowing 142.3 ypg. I think Ravens break a bunch of big TD runs and blow this thing wide-open. Give me Baltimore -10.5!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-19-18||Chiefs +3 v. Rams||51-54||Push||0||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/RAMS MNF ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs +3)
I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.
They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 45 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.
While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.
I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-120||29 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon.
I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC.
Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot.
New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9!
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||26 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.
I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.
I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.
I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.
There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.
Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles -7||27-20||Loss||-120||27 h 5 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.
I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.
I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.
I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.
Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.
I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.
I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-11-18||Falcons v. Browns +6.5||16-28||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.
I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.
I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).
I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.
More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys -4.5||28-14||Loss||-114||10 h 44 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game.
With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points.
In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards.
I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg).
Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs.
I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-04-18||Texans +1 v. Broncos||19-17||Win||100||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1)
I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.
Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.
The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.
All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.
Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.
I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.
Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-29-18||Patriots -13.5 v. Bills||25-6||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
40* PATRIOTS/BILLS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -13.5)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number with New England on the road. History is going to suggest that you take the big division home dog here, but history hasn’t seen an offense as bad as what Buffalo will put on display for Monday Night Football. The Bills are on pace to finish this season with the worst offensive efficiency we have ever seen.
It’s not easy beating a team in the NFL by two touchdowns on the road, but I just don’t know how you can trust this Bills team to keep this within 13 points. If this were an early Sunday kickoff, I might consider rolling the dice with Buffalo, but no way is Tom Brady and the Patriots not showing up for the bright lights of Monday Night Football. On top of that, New England has consistently been the team that has overcome these key situational trends under Brady and Belichick. They have also won 3 straight in the series by at least 16 points.
I just don’t know how the Bills can keep this one competitive. New England’s offense is clicking right now. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in 3 straight games. If they hit that mark here, Buffalo would need to score 25 to cover. The Bills have scored 25 or more just once this season. Chances are they will struggle to just score 20, as they have failed to simply reach 14 points in 5 of their 7 games.
With Josh Allen sidelined, Buffalo is likely to go with Derek Anderson again, but I’m not so sure he’s a much better option than Nathan Peterman, which says a lot given how atrocious Peterman has been.
I know the Bills are going to get up for this game and the home fans will be pumped up for prime time, but there’s simply a massive edge in both talent on the field and in coaching that I would have to roll the dice with the Patriots. Give me New England -13.5!
|10-28-18||Colts -3 v. Raiders||42-28||Win||100||28 h 17 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Colts -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a field goal at Oakland. I think a lot of people will hesitate to back Indy here as a road favorite, as they are just 2-5 on the season. The key thing here for me, is I don't trust this Raiders team to show up.
Oakland has been in the media for all the wrong reasons of late. There's rumors out there that not everyone is a fan of starting quarterback Derek Carr and management keeps trading away their best players. First it was Khalil Mack, now it's wide out Amari Cooper.
On top of all that, this team wasn't that good to start with and that's evident by their 1-5 record, which includes losses by 15 or more to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks. As for the Colts, injuries have really kept this team from reaching it's full potential, but I think we saw just how good they can be in last week's 37-5 win over Buffalo.
Andrew Luck is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in the game and they got a lot of good young talent on the defensive side of the ball. I just think Luck is going to be able to have his way with the Raiders defense and Oakland will struggle to keep pace. Give me the Colts -3!
|10-28-18||Bucs v. Bengals -3.5||34-37||Loss||-102||25 h 25 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati as a small home favorite. I believe this is an ideal get right spot for the Bengals, who have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field after how bad they played in last week's loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
I was all over Kansas City in that game, as I just thought it was really tough spot for the Bengals coming off that devastating loss at home to the Steelers and having to face one of the best teams in the league in prime time on the road. They aren't going to be the last team to get whooped by Kansas City in Arrowhead this season.
As much as I loved going against Cincinnati in that game, I love the Bengals in this spot. Not only are we going to get a max effort, but we are getting a very favorable price to back them.
The biggest problem for the Bengals in their last two games has been the play of their offense. I don't see that trend continuing against this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are giving up a ridiculous 40.7 ppg and 458 yards/game on the road this season.
Their defense ranks dead last against the pass, giving up 327.5 ypg. While they are 6th against the run, they just lost one of their best linebackers, Kwon Alexander to a season-ending ACL injury and both starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Vinny Curry are listed as questionable. As for the Bucs offense, it's got some nice weapons in the passing game, but they have zero threat of a running game and Jameis Winston continues to take horrible care of the football. Winston has played in just 3 games and has already thrown 6 interceptions. The Bucs as a whole have turned it over 13 times in their last 4 games and forced just two turnovers during that stretch.
Simply put this is not a team you want to back on the road. Tampa Bay is just 3-8-1 ATS in there last 12 road games and are also a mere 3-9-1 in their last 14 off a non-cover. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 at home, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of their last two games. Give me the Bengals -3.5!
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers +3||Top||21-36||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3)
I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road.
For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away.
Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball.
I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-22-18||Giants +4.5 v. Falcons||Top||20-23||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5)
For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.
Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.
Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.
I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5!
|10-21-18||Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5||Top||10-45||Win||100||33 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.
As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.
With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.
The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.
Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.
As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -5||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||24 h 19 m||Show|
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5)
I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.
I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.
I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.
More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.
|10-21-18||Patriots -2.5 v. Bears||38-31||Win||100||24 h 12 m||Show|
40* NFL EARLY BIRD VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Patriots -2.5)
I'll take my chances with the Patriots laying less than a field goal on the road against the Bears. I just don't know how you don't take New England at this price, no matter the circumstances. I know that the Pats will likely be without Gronkowski, but with Josh Gordon becoming more and more of a factor in the offense and how Brady can pick teams apart with Julian Edelman and his backs coming out of the backfield, I think New England's offense will be able to do enough to get the win.
The key here is I think Bill Belichick and that Patriots defense is going to make life miserable for Mitch Trubisky. If you take away the 6 TD performance against an awful Bucs defense, Trubisky has just 5 TD passes in his other 4 games combined. I just think he's a very limited quarterback at this point in his career and with the way NE can disguise their defense, I think he's going to cost this team a chance to win.
I love this Bears defense, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. Chicago's defense is really good, but they also have played a really easy schedule. Their 5 games have been against the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs and Dolphins. Green Bay is maybe the only potential playoff team out of that bunch. This is a big step up in class and I'm taking the team laying less than a field goal that has the far superior quarterback and coach. Give me the Patriots -2.5!
|10-21-18||Bills v. Colts -7||5-37||Win||100||24 h 8 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Colts -7)
I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a touchdown at home against the Bills. I think the only thing that is keeping this line from being more is the fact that Indianapolis comes into this game at just 1-5. The thing is, if you have watched the Colts, you know they are better than their record.
They have a couple of losses where they blew leads and others where they just missed out on a chance to win late. Not to mention they have had a difficult schedule to start the year with 4 of their first 6 on the road.
The good thing about the Colts being 1-5, is we can bank on them laying it all on the line at home in this game, as they have to feel like their season is on the line with this game. A loss here and it's time to start thinking about next year. I expect them to step up to the challenge and deliver in a big way.
I think due to the Colts struggles defensively, people are just assuming the Bills are going to be able to put up points. I'm not buying it. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson at quarterback, who they just signed a couple weeks ago and hasn't started in the NFL since 2016. There's going to be zero chemistry with that offense and it's already one of the least talented units in the league. Buffalo has scored fewer than 14 points in 4 of their 6 games. Give me the Colts -7!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers -9||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||Top||21-0||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|10-14-18||Steelers v. Bengals -119||28-21||Loss||-119||22 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY LINE SLAUGHTER (Bengals -119)
I'll take my chances here with the Bengals on the money line. I just feel there’s a ton of value with a home team.
The reason we are getting such great value is the Steelers are a big time public play and the public will quick to back them off that 24-point win against the Falcons. Plus, the Bengals just aren’t a team that public is drawn to, no matter what their record is.
I want to point out that I absolutely loved the Steelers at home last week against Atlanta (was my strongest play). I just loved the spot for Pittsburgh, playing at home off that ugly home loss to the Ravens. Not to mention they were catching an Atlanta team that has been decimated with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and were coming off that devastating loss at home to the Bengals.
It’s also worth pointing out that while the final score was lopsided, the Steelers only had a 381 to 324 edge in total yards and both teams ended the game with 22 first downs. I just don’t trust this team on the road. It’s no secret that Big Ben isn’t the same quarterback on the road as he is at home. The Steelers are still without one of the best backs in the league in LeVeon Bell and there just seems to be a ton of drama both inside and outside the locke room. This week it’s Antonio Brown making headlines for two lawsuits filed against him.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Bengals defense, but I like the young talent they got on that side of the ball and let’s not overlook they played the first 4 without one of the top linebackers in the league in Vontaze Burfict. They also seem to keep making the big play when it matters the most. Not to mention the energy they will get in front of what should be an electric home crowd.
This also isn’t just another game for these two teams. There’s quite the rivalry between the two and I have to think this is one contest the Bengals have been itching to play. Cincinnati has lost each of the last 6 meetings. They know that in order to win the AFC North, they have to take care of business against this team and I just think for the first time in a few years, they are the more talented team on the field. Give me the Bengals!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5||34-13||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.
As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.
I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.
Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|10-07-18||Jaguars v. Chiefs -3||14-30||Win||100||19 h 50 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -3)
I'll take my chances here with KC as a slim 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville. All the talk this week is going to be around can Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense continue to put up big numbers against what everyone believes is the best defense in the league. I believe he can. After what we saw last week against the Broncos, who have a pretty good defense of their own and the game being played in Denver in front of an electric crowd, there’s no way I’m betting against this kid and this team right now.
One of the things that can really frustrate a good defense is a mobile quarterback, who can make plays on the run. Time after time against the Broncos, Mahomes scrambled and made big plays on the run. He did so with a very poor game from his offensive line, though I think their struggles were in large part because of all the noise from an electric Denver home crowd. I also think watching this Jaguars defense that you can exploit them deep and Mahomes certainly has the ability to stretch a defense.
I know the numbers for the Jaguars defense are off the charts and it’s clearly a talented bunch, but they have faced two immobile quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Tom Brady, a hobbled Marcus Mariota and a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Not to mention, none of those teams have the kind of playmakers that the Chiefs have at their disposal. Throw in the creativity that comes with a Andy Reid offense and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahomes and the Chiefs just kept rolling.
The biggest thing that is going to hinder people from taking Kansas City is their defense, which has not been very good to this point. However, I think the defense isn’t as atrocious as a lot of people think. They have played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. A Kyle Shanahan offense led by a really good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and a greatly improved Broncos offense under Case Keenum.
Not to mention, only one of those games came at home and the one game that was at home the defense played great early and the Chiefs had a 35-10 lead at the half. It’s no secret that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and that noise can really help the defense out.
Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Jaguars have played 3 of their first 4 games on the road. The only game away from home was in Week 1 at New York and the offense for Jacksonville wasn’t all that great, scoring just 13 points (defense had a pick six) and managed 305 yards. Adding to this, the Jaguars are a mere 13-33 on the road with Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback and just 5-22 as a road dog. With a spread of just 3-points, we are basically picking the winner here. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|10-07-18||Falcons v. Steelers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons.
Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh.
I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts.
You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation.
Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh.
As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3!
|10-07-18||Packers +106 v. Lions||23-31||Loss||-100||19 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Packers +106)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Green Bay winning this game outright. It’s not been an ideal start to the season for Green Bay, but they are coming off their best showing of the season in their win over Buffalo at home last week. Even though the public is going to be all over the Packers, I just get the feeling this team is a bit undervalued right now.
The biggest thing that people will focus on that like Detroit in this spot, is the fact that the Packers lost 31-17 in their only road game of the season at Washington and last time we saw the Lions play at home they laid it on Brady and the Patriots.
The one thing you have to keep in mind with Green Bay’s poor showing against the Redskins, is they were coming off that crazy tie against the Vikings at home, where they felt cheated after an interception that would have sealed the win was negated because of a questionable roughing the passer penalty. I feel they simply came out flat against Washington and let’s not forget that tie had a similar effect on the Vikings, who got routed at home by the Bills in their next game.
As for the Lions win over New England. That was an ideal situation for Detroit to pull off the upset. The players played their hearts out for their new head coach against his former team and the home crowd was electric with the game being played on Sunday Night Football. Matt Patricia, who spent all those years going up against Brady and that New England offense put together a masterful gameplan in that win.
That’s their only win on the season. While they lost by just 3-points at San Francisco, they trailed by 17 in the 4th quarter. Sure they could have won at Dallas, but there’s nothing to be excited about playing the Cowboys tough with how they have looked early. Plus, they gave up 414 yards to a Cowboys team that hadn’t gained more than 303 yards in any of their first 3 games. Not to mention that loss to the Jets gets uglier with each passing week, as New York is now 1-3 and have scored 41 points in their 3 losses and had 48 against the Lions.
I just don’t think the Detroit defense is going to be able to do enough here to stop Rodgers and that Packers offense. The Lions are giving up almost a touchdown more to their opponent than what they average and are allowing a staggering 6 yards/play.
It’s also worth noting that Detroit is just 5-10 SU against the Packers with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and two of those were last year without Rodgers playing on the other side. Green Bay on the other hand has won 13 of 16 meetings with Detroit with Rodgers under center. Give me the Packers!
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10)
I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation.
We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri.
Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston.
New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start.
Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10!
|10-01-18||Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos||Top||27-23||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.
The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.
Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.
The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.
They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants +3.5||33-18||Loss||-115||7 h 40 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Giants +3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants getting more than a field goal at home. I just feel the Saints are way overvalued here. New Orleans is lucky to not be 0-3 right now. They lost as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1 to the Bucs, were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home in Week 2 and had to score in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime at Atlanta.
The thing is, New Orleans was super-hyped coming into the season and while they are lucky to be sitting at 2-1, the public won’t be able to help themselves with the Saints laying such a short number against a Giants team that hasn’t looked great.
I just don’t know how you trust this Saints team on the road in this spot. This feels like a must-win game for the Giants and the fact that they are a home dog will only add more fuel to the fire. As for New Orleans, I think that game against the Falcons took a lot out of this team. We just saw Minnesota and Green Bay struggle to play well after their overtime affair and I think it will be a similar struggle for the Saints.
A lackluster offensive showing in Weeks 1-2 really hurt the Giants, but they got on track this past Sunday against the Texans. Eli Manning played his best game of the year, completing 25 of 29 for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie running back Saquan Barkley also had a big impact, rushing for 82 yards and a score, plus had 5 catches for 35 yards.
I think they build on that performance against a struggling Saints defense. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 336.7 ypg. The only reason they aren’t last, is because they got to play the Browns while Tyrod Taylor was still their quarterback. Taylor couldn’t complete a 5-yard pass agains the Jets, yet he went 22 of 30 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Saints.
The Giants defense is unlikely to keep Brees and the Saints offense from scoring, but New Orleans typically isn’t as efficient offensively on the road, especially when the game is played outdoors. I think the Giants will be able to get off the field enough to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but to win it outright. Take New York +3.5!
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -2.5||42-45||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Raiders -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying less than a field goal with the Raiders at home. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Oakland in this spot. The Raiders have no one but themselves to blame for their 0-3 start, but they certainly aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record. This team could easily be 2-1 and I think there’s no way they aren’t more than a field goal favorite in that scenario. Either way, Oakland has to feel like this is a must-win game to keep their season alive.
I also think the hype around the Browns, especially with how good Mayfield looked in his debut, has Cleveland overvalued right now. Yes, the Browns have a good defense and there’s no denying that Mayfield looked like a massive upgrade of Taylor, but that win was against the Jets. I like the direction Cleveland is going, but they are at least a year away from being a team you can count on to deliver away from home.
That’s the biggest thing here for me. As good as Mayfield looked, he was fortunate to not have a couple passes intercepted. Unlike Taylor, who really values the football (arguably too much), Mayfield is going to take chances. I think it’s going to lead to a lot of turnovers and it’s really hard to win in this league when you lose the turnover battle, especially on the road. Let’s also not forget the Jets went into that game with a game-plan for Taylor at quarterback not Mayfield.
The biggest concern here is without a doubt the Raiders offense up against the Browns defense. Cleveland’s stop unit is greatly improved, but they could be down potentially 3 starters in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Christian Kirksey (LB) and Damarious Randall (FS). All of which are listed as questionable on the injury report.
I also think this Raiders offense is poised for a breakout performance. Oakland comes in 28th in the NFL in scoring at 17.3 ppg, but are 6th in the NFL at 400.7 ypg. Derek Carr has Oakland 6th in the league in passing at 302 ypg and they are right in the middle of the pack on the ground (98.7 ypg). Look for this unit to get on track Sunday and don’t be surprised if they aren’t aided by some short fields, which should lead to quick scores and ultimately them covering the spread. Give me the Raiders -2.5!
|09-30-18||Bucs v. Bears -2.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way.
The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8).
As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston.
The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt.
I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover.
Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5||30-27||Win||100||56 h 60 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.
Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.
Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.
What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||Top||14-27||Win||100||25 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5)
|09-23-18||Bengals v. Panthers -3||21-31||Win||102||25 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3)
|09-23-18||49ers v. Chiefs -6||27-38||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6)
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-107||21 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.
While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.
The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.
You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.
We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5!
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears -4||Top||17-24||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed.
I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin.
The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19.
You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4.
|09-16-18||Raiders +7 v. Broncos||19-20||Win||100||30 h 15 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7)
I think the Broncos are getting a little too much respect for a win over what I believe is a Seahawks team that isn’t all that great outside of Russell Wilson. I would be shocked if Seattle ended up in the playoffs this year. On the flip side of this, I think people are writing off Oakland after a 20-point home loss to the Rams. I actually thought the Raiders played well in that game. The Rams are just loaded with talent and are going to do that to a lot of teams this year.
I was impressed with the 395 total yards that Oakland racked up against LA, as they actually outgained the Rams by 30 yards on the game. I know the Broncos defense looked great, but they had such a big advantage in the trenches with all the talent they have up front and Seattle having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr was only sacked once by a Rams front that features arguably the two best defensive tackles in the game. They are going to be primed for Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush.
Another factor here that has me thinking the spread is a little high here, is the fact that only once in the last 3 seasons (6 meetings) have the Broncos beat Oakland by more than 6-points. That one doesn’t really count in my book, as that was back in Week 17 of the 2016 season where the Raiders were without Carr after he broke his leg the previous week.
I know it’s a new team with Gruden, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a double-digit loss at home (I think a lot of teams perform well in this spot, as they are highly motivated and a little undervalued on the line).
A lot of people think Denver has a big home field edge, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. I’ll gladly take my chances with the Raiders, who I believe are a live dog in this one. Give me Oakland +7.
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