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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-16-18||Patriots v. Jaguars||Top||20-31||Loss||-103||63 h 51 m||Show|
New England Patriots -103
The Patriots and Jags battle on Sunday in a rematch of an epic playoff matchup last season.
Any time you can get the Pats at this kind of price, it's certainly worth the move.
New England QB Tom Brady has made quite the legacy for himself and he added to that legacy last year against Jacksonville. Brady threw a pair of touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to advance the Patriots, while Jacksonville was left wondering what could have been.
Coming into this one, New England's offense has plenty of momentum. The Pats had 3 first quarter touchdowns from Brady in their 27-20 win over the Texans in Week 1. New England had plenty to take away from the win as this offense looks like they're in midseason form.
Some trends to note. Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 2. Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Tom Brady is 8-0 in his career against Jacksonville. This is certainly worth a nice move.
Back New England.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ML TOP PLAY
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons OVER 51||Top||17-20||Loss||-110||20 h 58 m||Show|
New Orleans vs. Atlanta Over 51
Two QBs who love to play in domes meet as the Saints and Falcons go at it.
Here, it's simply two explosive offenses that have QBs who can heave the ball deep down field.
Looking into the Saints first, Drew Brees leads an offense that is putting up 29.4 points per game. Brees himself has tossed for 3298 yards and added 17 touchdowns to his credit. This New Orleans offense can strike at any time with Brees' arm and he'll have the chance to feel almost right at home with the dome above him.
Matt Ryan isn't too far behind him. Ryan and the Flacons have put up less points, but with his weapons around him, there is always a chance for a big play. It starts with Julio Jones, who is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Ryan and Jones have built a connection where they can hit anywhere, which adds a lot of value to this over in terms of scoring quickly.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 vs. NFC South.
Expect a ton of action here.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 10* NFL O/U TOP PLAY
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys||Top||17-28||Win||100||55 h 14 m||Show|
The Cowboys are in a nice spot here on Sunday and this is a valuable line.
Dallas was just given word that running back Ezekiel Elliot will be granted stay for Sunday here in this one. That adds a huge impact to this already impressive Dallas offense.
Elliot has been on a different level over the past two games, rushing for 297 yards and four touchdowns. His abilities open a whole new gameplan for this Dallas offense.
It allows Prescott to open the pass game up, which is a very dangerous one considering the weapons he has to work with. WR Dez Bryant has 4 touchdowns on the season, as he is one of the biggest threats throughout the entire NFL. If Elliot gets going early, expect Prescott and Bryant to have a field day as gaps should open up in this secondary.
Some trends to note. Cowboys are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Dallas is at a nice line here, especially given the status of Zeke.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY Play
|10-22-17||Bengals v. Steelers -5||Top||14-29||Win||100||79 h 37 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Steelers -5
AFC North rivals clash as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals go at it on Sunday.
Pittsburgh may finally be 100% back on track after last weeks performance. The Steelers went into KC and had some very timely offensive plays, as well as just solid defense all around in an outright win over the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh has leaned on that defense all season long, as they are giving up just 17 points per game. Total yards wise, they rank 3rd in the NFL, conceding only 272 yards. The Steelers defense has the ability to get off the field on 3rd downs and they continue to get the ball back into the offenses hands and allow them to control the tempo of games.
Le'Veon Bell is starting to find it as well, rushing for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns so far.
The Bengals offense is putting up just 16.8 points per game themselves. Dalton and company just haven't found it yet and that doesn't bode well for them heading into Pittsburgh Sunday.
Some trends to note. Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.Bengals are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
The Steelers have dominated this series. Given that, they have a lot of value at this number.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY
|12-06-15||Seahawks -1.5 v. Vikings||Top||38-7||Win||100||26 h 30 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks ATS
Seattle heads into Minnesota for a Sunday showdown with major playoff implications for both teams on the line. For Seattle, they've snuck into a Wild Card spot, but need to string together some wins here in order to hold on.
The Seahawks looked impressive last week as they dropped 39 on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Hawks offense is rolling right now behind Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls. Wilson comes in very high after throwing for 345 yards and 5 touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Rawls has been just as good as Marshawn Lynch, maybe even better, as he's ran for 290 yards and 2 TDs over the last 2 games.
Don't look into the loss of Jimmy Graham too much here. He wasn't nothing but a mere blocker in this offense and the offense won't have any problems without him here.
The Seahawks defense will certainly have the game plan in this one. Stack the box and stop the run. Seattle has struggled against the pass, but with Minnesota being a run first team, this is the perfect scenario to really stop Minnesota.
Don't expect Minnesota to keep up with the scoring in this one. Seattle is just too strong and too fast for the Vikings here.
It's December and that means time for the Seahawks to hit their stride. Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, plus they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 13.
Back Seattle ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL TOP PLAY
|10-22-15||Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||20-3||Win||100||14 h 19 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks ATS
Seattle travels to San Francisco for Thursday Night Football and with the Seahawks laying just 6.5 here, this has TREMENDOUS value.
Situationally, the Seahawks come in here needing a win. They coughed up a late lead last week against the Panthers, which followed a collapse against the Bengals. While both losses should have been wins, they came against a pair of undefeated teams in the NFL.
Offensively, TE Jimmy Graham is coming off his best performance in a Seahawks uniform and if he contributes the way he did last game, this Hawks offense is so much better. Graham caught 8 receptions for 140 yards.
RB Marshawn Lynch was also able to get his legs back underneath him as he missed two games with a hamstring injury. He can be expected to have a much quicker step in this one as he's shaken the rust off after last game.
Seattle has also had the 49ers number. Seattle has won 5 of 6 head-to-head meetings and held San Francisco to just 10 points combined in the 2 meetings last year. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is just 1-5 in his career against Seattle.
Expect Seattle to come out with fire in their eyes on both sides of the ball as they send a message with a giant win on Thursday.
Back Seattle ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY
|10-23-14||San Diego Chargers +8 v. Denver Broncos||Top||21-35||Loss||-110||35 h 3 m||Show|
San Diego Chargers +8
The Denver Broncos host the San Diego Chargers on Thursday evening. Denver is coming off a 42-17 win over the 49ers, while San Diego dropped its last game to the Chiefs.
Chargers head coach Mike McCoy knows the Broncos offense nearly as well as Peyton Manning does, and while his squad has been able to give Manning and the Broncos trouble in recent meetings, the team just hasn't had the horses in the secondary to really make the most of a solid game plan. With one or both of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett in the lineup, the Chargers will go a long way in disrupting the Broncos' offensive attack.
With the oddsmakers giving the Broncos far too much credit in this one, we'll gladly bump this play up to our top rating, and run, not walk, to the ticket window to get in on this inflated line.
The Chargers are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver.
Take San Diego.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
|10-12-14||Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5||Top||37-37||Loss||-107||73 h 50 m||Show|
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in Week 6.
Cincinnati is coming off a 43-17 loss to New England, while Carolina beat Chicago in their last outing, 31-24. The Panthers get the Bengals at the worst possible time in this one. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. That will have them eager to get back into the win column, and they’ll want to do so in decisive fashion as a reminder that they are in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.Much like what we see in this matchup, last week’s loss to New England was more a case of bad circumstance for Cincinnati, which ran into a Patriots team that was embarrassed the previous week and came out with something to prove. Now that shoe is on the other foot as the Bengals will have something to prove, and they’ll get to do so on their home field where they enjoy one of the best home field advantages in all of football.
As for the Panthers, they’re a bit of a mess right now. Quarterback Cam Newton is still being limited by an injured ankle and ribs, and head coach Ron Rivera has admitted that the playbook hasn’t been fully opened because of Newton’s limitations. A backfield of retreads and afterthoughts may have been enough against a lousy Bears defense last week, but that’s not going to cut it against one of the top defenses in football, and one that will be extra-motivated to dominate this matchup.
With this game presenting a uniquely favorable set of circumstances, we’ll gladly bump this play up to our top rating.
The Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY
|12-15-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3||Top||20-30||Win||100||93 h 35 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night in Week 15 of the NFL season. Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-28 loss to Miami, while Cincinnati beat Indianapolis in their last game, 42-28.
Wins for the Bengals in Pittsburgh have historically been few and far between, yet it's Cincinnati giving away points in this one.
The Bengals are coming off a dominant home win over the Colts, but the team has been a completely different animal on the road this season, where they are 3-4 on the season, including losses in each of their other two road divisional matchups.
The Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Now they go to Pittsburgh to take on an improved Steelers team that has been much better since their break, largely due to the emergence of offensive weapons LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC North opponents, and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers' backs are against the wall as another loss would surely sink their postseason hopes.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
With the oddsmakers having gotten this line wrong and favoring the wrong side, we'll bump this play up to our top rating.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY on Pittsburgh Steelers +3
|01-20-13||San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||28-24||Win||100||167 h 39 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
|12-23-12||NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||14-33||Loss||-125||125 h 41 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens host the New York Giants on Sunday. Baltimore is coming off a 34-17 loss to Denver, while New York was embarrassed by Atlanta their last time out, 34-0.
The Giants have alternated dominant performances with lousy ones since their bye in Week 11 and if that pattern holds true, they
|12-10-12||Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -3||Top||14-42||Win||100||79 h 30 m||Show|
The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans on Monday night. New England beat Miami 23-16 last week, while Houston is coming off a 24-10 win over Tennessee.
New England certainly ranks as an elite passing team, and that
|11-18-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4||Top||13-10||Win||100||50 h 57 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Baltimore swept the season series between these teams a year ago.
Pittsburgh was able to hold off Kansas City, but lost Ben Roethlisberger in the process. Byron Leftwich was passable in relief, but the team
|11-04-12||Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns||Top||25-15||Win||100||92 h 14 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is coming off their bye week, while Cleveland beat San Diego last week, 7-6.
The Ravens were blown out by the Houston Texans heading into their bye week, and that presents a situation that has been profitable for us in the past, as teams that get blown out heading into their bye week play with a ton of passion in their next game. We
|10-21-12||NY Jets v. New England Patriots -10||Top||26-29||Loss||-109||76 h 18 m||Show|
New England -10
The New England Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday. New England lost to Seattle last week, while New York is coming off a convincing win over Indianapolis.
New England doesn
|02-05-12||NY Giants v. New England Patriots UNDER 55||Top||21-17||Win||100||118 h 45 m||Show|
The New York Giants and New England Patriots played to a 17-14 scoreline the first time they met in the Super Bowl. While there's likely to be more points this time, the under still looks good.
The Patriots haven't allowed more than 27 points in any one game this season and while they played a very easy schedule, they haven't scored more than 23 against any team with a winning record.
Both teams know how to stifle each other defensively, especially the Giants, who know how to rush Tom Brady and get him out of rhythm.
Both teams will play ball control and keep away (only two possessions in the first quarter of Super Bowl XLII and only 10 first half points). Bet the under in this one. 10* play.
|01-22-12||Baltimore Ravens +9 v. New England Patriots||Top||20-23||Win||100||163 h 55 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens are a huge underdog in New England on Saturday but they'll be on even footing with the Patriots when the game starts.
Overall, the Patriots have an elite passing game but their defense is brutal, their running game is suspect and they don't have the type of balance that Baltimore offense.
The Patriots have played just two teams with a winning record this season and they lost both games. As for Baltimore, they played seven teams with a winning record this year and won each time. They've faced New England three times in the last three years (each time on the road) and they won once (in the playoffs 33-14) and lost twice by a margin of 4.5 points.
They'll be confident on Sunday and nine points is too much to lay with a team that is suspect. Baltimore is more than capable to win this game outright and that's actually what we'll be expecting. Bet the Ravens. 10* play.
|01-15-12||Houston Texans v. Baltimore Ravens -7.5||Top||13-20||Loss||-110||90 h 15 m||Show|
Writeup coming shortly. 10* play.
|01-08-12||Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -3||Top||2-24||Win||100||73 h 7 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants are two similar teams, but there are some key edges that point us to the Giants in this contest.
For starters, the Falcons didn't play well against winning teams all season. They lost four of six games against teams above .500 and covered the spread just once in those games. As for the Giants, they were 5-2 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
It's hard to trust the Falcons, who are an indoor dome team, going on the road outside in the cold. The Falcons run defense ranked sixth in the NFL but collapsed down the stretch of the season, giving up 398 yards on 65 carries (6.15 yards per carries) in their final four games. They'll be without starting linebacker Stephen Nicholas on Sunday.
The Giants tend to play to the level of their competition, and with a quality team visiting in the playoffs, look for them to take care of business. Bet the Giants. 10* play.
|01-07-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -3||Top||10-31||Win||100||53 h 40 m||Show|
The Houston Texans beat the Cincinnati Begnals in Cincy earlier this year and they get another crack on Saturday.
One reason why this contest might be easier is this time they are at home and Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been dealing with the flu this week. They'll have problems running the ball against the Texans stout run defense, so the Bengals backfield could be very ineffective. Also, we don't know the extent of the flu as it could have been passed around to more players than just Dalton.
The Texans were 5-1 against the spread against teams with a winning record while the Bengals were just 2-5 overall against teams above .500.
Playing at home, take the Texans in this spot. 10* play.
|12-24-11||Oakland Raiders +122 v. Kansas City Chiefs||Top||16-13||Win||122||59 h 27 m||Show|
The Oakland Raiders are out for revenge and they should be able to get some against a Kansas City Chiefs team that played their Super Bowl last week.
The Chiefs are coming off a stunning upset of the then-perfect Green Bay Packers and it will be tough for them to match the intensity they put forth in that game. On top of that, the Raiders should be fired up to get some revenge against the Chiefs, who shut them out 28-0 at home earlier this season.
The Raiders main weakness on defense is their pass defense but the Chiefs are more of a dink and dunk team. They need to run the ball to have success and Oakland is more than capable of slowing that down.
Oakland has covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 divisional games and they still control their playoff destiny. Bet them to win on Saturday. 10* play.
|12-18-11||New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos +7.5||Top||41-23||Loss||-105||50 h 58 m||Show|
The Denver Broncos simply aren't getting any respect. Even after winning seven of their last eight games, the media, fans and other NFL players continue to doubt them as some kind of a gimmick.
The bottom line in this spot here is that the New England Patriots might not actually be the better football team - believe it or not.
Sure, Tom Brady is outstanding and he's got better offensive weapons with Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, but defense and home-field advantage tend to win out in the long run in the NFL and both will be on the Broncos side.
The Broncos are giving up just 27% third down conversions over the last eight games and they've picked up 12 turnover and 25 sacks in that span. There's no question that Brady will move the ball but Denver might be able to slow him down, whereas there is less faith that the Patriots defense can slow anyone down at all.
The Patriots barely escaped with a 34-27 win in Washington last week after the Redskins racked up 463 yards of offense. The week before, the hapless and winless Indianapolis Colts scored 24 points on New England.
Denver has the running game and ball control-type of offense to pull off this win - let alone cover seven points.
Tim Tebow has continually improved as a passer each week and this week might be his easiest game. The Pats have the NFL's worst defense, allowing 416 yards per game and the league's worst pass defense (giving up 8.1 yards per passing play). They have just 29 sacks on the year.
This game will be far closer than most expect. Bet the Broncos. 10* play.
|12-11-11||Oakland Raiders v. Green Bay Packers OVER 51.5||Top||16-46||Win||100||88 h 15 m||Show|
The Green Bay Packers are the highest scoring team in the NFL and they shouldn't have too many problems getting to at least 30 versus the Oakland Raiders. After all, the Miami Dolphins scored 34 points
Green Bay hasn't scored less than 27 points in any of their last six games while Oakland has played well offensively too. The other two times when they fell flat on their face, coughing up the big lead to Buffalo and getting shutout by Kansas City, the Raiders bounced back with 34 and 24 points.
Aside from last week's debacle, the Raiders have scored at least 24 in every game since their bye. Bet the over. 10* play.
|12-11-11||Chicago Bears v. Denver Broncos -187||Top||10-13||Win||100||88 h 6 m||Show|
There's little faith in the Chicago Bears this week after they couldn't even beat the Kansas City Chiefs at home. Without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the Bears mustered just three points against a so-so Chiefs defense, and the task will get much harder on the road in Denver.
The Bears are not getting any consistent passing from quarterback Caleb Hanie, they can't block for him and now there's no ground game for support. Denver isn't great on offense but at least Tim Tebow can move the football. Overall, they are playing with far more confidence than the Bears. Bet the Broncos. 10* play.
|11-27-11||Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -9||Top||24-28||Loss||-110||40 h 22 m||Show|
The Buffalo Bills are a sinking ship these days as they have lost three straight and four of five. The scary part is that they have been outscored 106-26 in the last three games and have not been competitive at all.
One of those losses came at home to the very same New York Jets as the Bills couldn't get anything going on offense. Believe it or not, life could be much easier for the Jets this time around.
For starters, the NFL's third-leading rusher, Fred Jackson, is now out for the year. Top receiver Stevie Johnson will play, but he isn't 100%. No. 2 receiver Donald Jones is out for the year as his Naaman Roosevelt. The Bills will also be without kicker Rian Lindell, safety George Wilson and cornerback Terrence McGee.
The Jets are relatively healthy and have had 10 days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. This season, they have been far more effective at home (4-1) than on the road (1-4). Bet the Jets. 10* play.
|11-20-11||Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41||Top||7-23||Win||100||95 h 20 m||Show|
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled this season but their defense has been strong of late. They stifled the Philadelphia Eagles offense last week and we're going to look for them to keep their team in the game once again this week.
The 49ers obviously have a strong defense of their own and they'll be handed the challenge of slowing down John Skelton this week. He was somewhat lucky against Philadelphia last week as he missed a number of throws and two of his biggest plays came on tipped passes. Without much of a running game, don't expect the Cardinals to be scoring very much on the road this week.
For the 49ers, they'll continue to pound away on the ground, make smart decisions and do what the defense gives them. That should translate to a low-scoring affair in the Bay today. 10* play.
|11-06-11||NY Giants v. New England Patriots -8.5||Top||24-20||Loss||-110||71 h 47 m||Show|
The New England Patriots are 26-2 after a loss in their last 28 times and we'll expect a serious bounce back on Sunday.
They actually need a win as the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are nipping at their heels and another loss might put their playoff position in a bit of peril.
That's not likely to happen given how the undisciplined New York Giants have played in recent weeks. Last week, the Giants made Matt Moore look like Peyton Manning as he picked them apart in the first half. The Giants couldn't regain their footing until the fourth quarter, when they finally eked out a win.
This week, they are shorthanded as running back Ahmad Bradshaw has a fractured foot, backup Brandon Jacobs has a fractured ego and has been ineffective anyways, and wide receiver Hakeem Nicks isn't healthy.
This is a game for the Patriots to get right and get back over the 30-point mark. Look for plenty of points from them as they win and cover. 10* play.
|11-06-11||Green Bay Packers v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 51.5||Top||45-38||Loss||-110||71 h 47 m||Show|
While the public has been pounding this over all week long, we've got a different view of the game.
The San Diego Chargers are overmatched in this game from just about every perspective. They're not healthy, they're not rested and they're not very good overall. For them to win, their best path to achieve that will be to run the ball and play keep away.
Green Bay is rested and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They watched the blue print of how to beat the Chargers and that was simply by running the ball and keeping Philip Rivers on the sidelines.
Since the Packers are on the road, they won't be looking to blow anyone out. They'll be happy with a simple win. That might lead to more field goals than touchdowns and we already know that the Chargers do exactly that when they get into the red zone.
It's a tall total but this doesn't look like a shootout. Bet the under. 10* play.
|10-30-11||Cleveland Browns v. San Francisco 49ers -8.5||Top||10-20||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
The San Francisco 49ers have been tough and rugged throughout the season, and we'll expect more of it as they come off of their bye week.
The Cleveland Browns are beaten up and worn down, and they don't tend to have a lot of success when they can't run the ball. That's going to be a problem against the 49ers defense, who is going to suffocate them.
Meanwhile, the 49ers will line up and pound the ball with Frank Gore, who is just 110 rushing yards short from becoming the franchise rushing leader. The Browns have the 19th-ranked rushing defense.
Cleveland hasn't looked so hot on the road this year, barely beating the Colts in Indianapolis and getting roughed up by the Raiders in Oakland. They just don't have the offense to really keep up on the road, so look for the 49ers to take advantage. Bet the 49ers. 10* play.
|10-23-11||Denver Broncos +111 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||18-15||Win||111||110 h 51 m||Show|
The Miami Dolphins are a veteran team that has yet to register a win this season, and they know exactly what's going to happen to their head coach in a short period of time.
Their mood is bad, their moral is low and they are on a short week after another flat effort.
The Denver Broncos are a much better team but at least there is a spark. Tim Tebow will get the start and the entire team seems to rally around him every time he's in the lineup. That's going to be the difference as good things seem to happen when he's in the game while the Dolphins experience the opposite with Matt Moore. 10* play.
|10-16-11||Jacksonville Jaguars v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40.5||Top||13-17||Win||100||37 h 16 m||Show|
It's hard to see this game going over when only one team is really going to be able to move the football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has been absolutely awful this year as their 20-point total last week was their highest of the week. That actually was somewhat fluky as the Cincinnati Bengals blew a coverage and let the Jags score an easy touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Even with those 20 points, the Jags have still averaged just 11.8 points per game. Going on the road to Heinz Field is not the place to find solutions to a sluggish offense.
The good news is that the Jags defense should be able to play physical early and keep this game close in the first half. They also match the Steelers physicality and that will work for a while until their offense hangs them out to dry.
Unless the Jags start turning the ball over like crazy, this game should be low scoring. Bet the under. 10* play.
|10-09-11||New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +7||Top||30-27||Win||100||51 h 1 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers have been a backdoor sweetheart all season long and we expect that to continue. They continue to be overlooked by the public mostly because they aren't winning games, but they simply don't have any quit to them now that they are being led by Cam Newton.
They'll be challenged this week as their awful defense goes up against the New Orleans Saints and their explosive offense, but really, that's nothing new for Carolina. They faced the Green Bay Packers at home a couple of weeks ago and they did just fine getting the back door cover.
The Saints defense is going to blitz the heck out of Newton but we've already heard that story before. The Packers did it, the Bears did and the Jaguars did it. Each time Newton did fine.
Look for Carolina to get their ground game going, which has been somewhat dormant to start the year and with Newton throwing the ball all over the place, expect them to keep this within a touchdown at home against a division rival. 10* play.
|10-09-11||Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars||Top||30-20||Win||100||51 h 0 m||Show|
Two rookie quarterbacks will be leading the offenses on Sunday but the Jacksonville Jaguars may have a sense of remorse when they see who the Cincinnati Bengals drafted in the second round.
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in the 2011 Draft and have watched him complete 47.8% of his passes with two touchdowns and two picks while averaging 5.9 yards per pass.
The Bengals took Andy Dalton in the second round and he's completed 58.1% of his passes with four touchdowns and four picks, while leading his team to two wins. They could easily be 3-1 right now.
Both teams have good defenses but the question is which offense will be able to move the ball. The Jags have no receiving weapons and little help from their quarterback. That makes it a tough chore to cover three points at home. Bet the Bengals. 10* play.
|09-25-11||Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. St. Louis Rams||Top||37-7||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens have dominated the NFC under John Harbaugh and the same will be the case this week against a beat up St. Louis Rams squad on a short week.
The Rams offense is likely to be without Steven Jackson, who is the questionable to doubtful range. Even if he plays, he won't be at 100% and running at the Ravens in between the teams rarely works anyways. Backup Cadillac Williams is also questionable and hasn't practiced most of the week and there's a good chance he's also out. That puts more pressure on the Rams passing game, which has struggled to find it's rhythm under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Rams are struggling in the red zone, where they've converted once in five trips.
The Ravens are pissed after their letdown on the road in Tennessee last week. After smoking the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week One, they came out flat and were rolled by a medium-grade Titans team. Expect the Ravens offense to get back on track as they've averaged 27.7 points per game against NFC teams under Harbaugh and 26.3 last year. They'll get back on track with a win this week. 10* play.
|09-18-11||Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3||Top||21-22||Loss||-120||45 h 14 m||Show|
People keep laughing when I tell them that the Washington Redskins are a decent team but I guess they'll have to keep winning to fend off the critics.
Nobody wants to say it out loud, but Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman looked good in their season-opening 28-14 win over the New York Giants, completing 21-of-34 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Beyond that, the Redskins ran the ball effectively enough to keep the dogs off of Grossman's back.
The Cardinals defense coughed up 477 yards of total offense at home to the Carolina Panthers, who were 2-14 last year. Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton did whatever he wanted and there's little reason to believe the Redskins won't do the same as well.
The Cards overall effort was questionable as they used a blown coverage by the Panthers and then awful coverage on a punt return for a touchdown by the Panthers two come from behind in a 28-21 win. They also nearly let the Panthers tie it as they fell short on the one-yard-line as time wore down at the end of the fourth quarter.
Now the Cards have to go on the road on a long East coast trip. They're rarely a good road team in the East time zone and after last week's effort, there's not a whole lot of reason to have faith in them.
We'll stick with the Redskins, laying just a field goal at home. 10* play.
|02-06-11||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers OVER 44.5||Top||25-31||Win||100||65 h 39 m||Show|
While the biggest storylines of the last two weeks has really been about the two 3-4 defenses and how they rank No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring, they won't be the story on Super Bowl Sunday.
There are a number of key factors coming into play as to why the over is the play. For starters, both defensive coordinators, Dom Capers and Dick Lebeau, are very familiar with each other - and their schemes - after having worked together in Pittsburgh in the mid-1990's.
With two weeks to prepare, both offenses couldn't have had better preparation than going up against the very units they are going to see on Sunday. Both quarterbacks will have a good idea about the blitzing schemes, characteristics and patterns.
But more importantly than that, the key to this contest going over will be the Green Bay Packers passing the ball. The Steelers do have an elite defense and while their run defense is top-flight (No. 1 overall), their pass defense is mediocre.
The Steelers lack depth at cornerback and the Packers have tons of depth at wide receiver. That's a horrible matchup for Pittsburgh.
Much has been made about the Steelers ability to run versus the Packers No. 18 rush defense but at a closer look, that run defense has been far better of late. The Packers have given up just 209 rushing yards on 59 carries in three playoff games (3.5 yards per carry). Contrary to popular opinion, Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall won't get going - especially with the Steelers offensive line woes.
So this sets up to be a passing games and considering how well the Packers have passed the football indoors, this could be a very high-scoring affair. The Packers have scored more than 40 points in each of their last two indoor playoff games and have averaged over 31 points per game in their last 12 dome games. In that span, Rodgers has 26 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.
The Steelers would have loved this game to be outdoors, in the rain or snow, so that they can muck it up and dictate the pace. Instead, the Packers speed and finesse will dictate the pace of this game, which will lead to plenty of points. Bet the over. 10* play.
|01-23-11||NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39||Top||19-24||Loss||-110||128 h 1 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets combined for 39 points in the first meeting and were a hair away from adding another touchdown to the total, but there is still plenty of reason to go under in this matchup.
For starters, just the fact that they have squared off once already will allow the defenses to be more prepared for what they have already seen from their opponent's offense.
Any way you cut it, this is a matchup of two excellent defensive teams that are going to takeaway what their opponent does best. On offense, the Jets will continue to do what they've done, which is milk the clock, get first downs and take advantage of any mistakes their opponents give them. Since they are on the road, their goal is to hang around and try to steal the game late.
On defense, the Jets have allowed just 36 points in the last two contests to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's teams. They are dialed in and playing as good as they have all season long.
The weather may factor with snow expected early in the day and possibly turning to rain. The weather is expected to be 18 Fahrenheit at its warmest.
As long as the Steelers don't give up big kick returns, safeties and field position like they did in the first matchup, this game will be a hard-fought defensive battle and will stay under. 10* play.
|01-23-11||Green Bay Packers -190 v. Chicago Bears||Top||21-14||Win||100||123 h 4 m||Show|
It just feels like destiny, doesn't it? The Green Bay Packers have been the media sweetheart all this week and everyone is just writing them in for a Super Bowl berth.
Unfortunately, this isn't a Disney movie and the games are not played on paper.
When it comes to Sunday's matchup with the Chicago Bears, the Packers have virtually every advantage except for the home field.
While most people wouldn't even argue that the Packers have the better offense, the better offensive line, the better quarterback and the better crop of wide receivers, the Packers are also better on the other side of the ball as well.
Green Bay has the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFC. Their total defense ranks fifth while the Bears are ninth, they've generated the second-most sacks in the NFL with 47 while the Bears have just 34 (17th in NFL) and the Packers have 24 interceptions while the Bears have 21.
The Bears defense excels at stopping the run (2nd overall), which means that the Packers won't have the balance that they have had the last couple of weeks with rookie James Starks taking some pressure off of the passing game, but the Bears pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, which is going to be a problem.
The Packers are a pass-oriented team and their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is red-hot right now with seven touchdowns and no interceptions through his first two playoff games.
On the other side, the Bears offense - specifically Jay Cutler - is just too mistake-prone to trust. They don't run the ball very well and while we know that the Packers can win the game if the burden is put on Rodgers, there is far less confidence in Cutler winning this game on his own. Every week, Bears fans are holding their breath that Cutler won't give the game away.
With home-field advantage helping the Bears, this game might be nip-tuck. If you're uncomfortable betting the moneyline, buy it down to a field goal or 2.5. Either way, the Packers are moving on to the Super Bowl and the Bears are going home. 10* play.
|01-15-11||Green Bay Packers +115 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||48-21||Win||115||125 h 10 m||Show|
The Green Bay Packers will visit the Georgia Dome for the second time this season in just one of four regular season rematches this weekend in the NFL.
The Packers fell short by a field goal in the late-November meeting but this time, the result will be different.
Much has been made about the Atlanta Falcons and their home-field advantage but the New Orleans Saints went into the Georgia Dome in Week 16 and proved to everyone that the Falcons are still very much human at home. Green Bay will do the same.
It's hard not to factor momentum into this contest as the Packers, who had to win out the final two weeks of the regular season, have essentially been playing playoff football since December. Even with Aaron Rodgers shelved in a trip to Gillette Stadium, the Packers gave the Patriots all they could handle, then they stomped the New York Giants at home and topped the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Last week, they were in control the entire way in Philadelphia en route to a 21-16 win.
Most impressive was the fact that they muted Michael Vick, who was expected to be a defensive nightmare. Defense wins championships and the Packers, who held the explosive Eagles to just 16 points, have the NFC's No. 1 scoring defense.
Atlanta may have lost momentum with a Week 16 lost to New Orleans and then a bye week last week. Rust may be in effect.
The Falcons are just 3-3 against the spread versus teams with a winning record, which indicates that they've done a lot of their damage against weak foes this season. The Packers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog and they'll make it 4-1 as they exact some revenge and get another hard-fought road win. 10* play.
|01-08-11||New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks +10.5||Top||36-41||Win||100||122 h 26 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints have a cupcake matchup this weekend as they face the first team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record.
But the Saints have only won one road playoff game in their franchise history and that came in the Super Bowl last season.
On top of that, the Saints have issues in their backfield right now as running backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas will miss this game. The Saints have struggled this season when they have been one-dimensional on offense.
The Saints are an indoors team that has to travel to the west to play a game outdoors. Not only that, they are being asked to cover 11 points.
The Saints are just 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have played better at home than away this season as they have covered five of eight spreads.
New Orleans should win but this game will be closer than the odds makers expect. 10* play.
|01-02-11||St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 41.5||Top||6-16||Win||100||31 h 28 m||Show|
The Seattle Seahawks will host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday night in a winner-takes-the-NFC-West showdown.
Offense should be hard to come by in this one as the Seahawks unit is regularly pathetic but may be without starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Even if he plays, the passing game has been lifeless in recent weeks and the running game has been dormant all season long. The Seahawks rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with just 85.5.
The Seahawks have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while scoring just 15.3 points per game in those seven losses. Even so, they are a team that plays better at home - especially their defense.
The Rams are an indoors team that is traveling west to play outdoors in frigid temperatures. They aren't running the ball particularly well, which is never a good sign when heading out on the road.
Running back Steven Jackson is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season and has never had a 100-yard rushing game against Seattle. In the second half of the season, his yards per carry average is even lower at 3.5.
This has the makings of an ugly defensive struggle. The under is 3-1 in the four games that the Rams have been favored this season and it's 11-5 in their last 16 divisional games.
With Charlie Whitehurst likely starting for a toothless Seahawks team and the Rams taking a young offense on the road outdoors, look for a low-scoring contest in this one. 10* play.
|01-02-11||Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -3||Top||17-34||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
The Jacksonville Jaguars are still playing for a playoff spot in Week 17 but they aren't going to get it. For starters, they need the Indianapolis Colts to lose at home. Secondly, they need to defeat the Houston Texans, which they have already done once this season, but they'll need to do it without their starting backfield.
Both quarterback David Garrard and running back Maurice Jones-Drew will not suit up for this game, which puts the burden on Trent Edwards and Rashad Jennings. The Houston Texans defense is pathetic but it should be able to look a bit better against Edwards, who was cut by the Buffalo Bills earlier this season.
The Texans won't have Andre Johnson at their disposal on Sunday but they still have an explosive offense. They'll have a big edge in their backfield as both Matt Schaub and Arian Foster are Pro Bowl-caliber players (Foster was selected to the 2011 Pro Bowl).
This is also a revenge game where the Texans lost a heartbreaker in Jacksonville on a last-second Hail Mary pass.
With the recent rumors that head coach Gary Kubiak will be back in 2011 with Wade Phillips manning the defense, the Texans can use this game as a springboard for next season. They'll be charged up for this one while the Jags won't be able to match points with them on offense. 10* play.
|12-26-10||Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs -5||Top||14-34||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
The Kansas City Chiefs need to keep winning to keep the San Diego Chargers off their heels, and the good news is that they finish up the season with their final two contests at home.
The Chiefs host the Titans this week, who are in complete disarray. The Titans ended their six-game losing streak at home last week but that was against the Houston Texans, and on top of that, they needed to pull out all of the stops. Quarterback Kerry Collins should have been intercepted a couple of times in the first quarter (dropped picks) and the Titans needed to complete a couple of gambles on fourth down.
This week, they face a much tougher opponent and they have to head on the road. The Titans have lost their last three road games by an average margin of 13.3 points per game.
The biggest issue for the Titans will be their 17th-ranked rush defense. The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL and they are going to pound the Titans on the ground. If the game is forced on Collins arm, he won't be as lucky as he was last week.
The Chiefs need this game whereas the Titans are playing for their coach, who some of them may not have as much faith in after his rift with quarterback Vince Young. Bet the Chiefs. 10* play.
|12-25-10||Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Arizona Cardinals||Top||26-27||Loss||-100||18 h 17 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Arizona on Saturday to face the hapless Cardinals, in what should very well be a blowout.
The Cowboys have been very competitive since firing Wade Phillips as they have four wins in six games with two 30-27 losses to the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles - two teams that could be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have been completely listless down the stretch of a season and aside from a six-turnover effort from the Denver Broncos, the Cardinals have eight losses in their last nine games.
The Cowboys haven't scored less than 27 points in a game after Jason Garrett took over and they have averaged 32.2 points per game. The Cardinals are hapless on offense with rookie quarterback John Skelton running the show as he has completed less than 50% of his passes and has yet to throw a touchdown through two starts.
Take the Cowboys to roll the Cardinals on Christmas Day. 10* pick.
|12-23-10||Carolina Panthers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -14||Top||3-27||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football tonight and it should be a walk in the park for Pittsburgh.
Even if Carolina was at full strength, this would be a tough matchup for them as they are a run-oriented team going on the road to face the No. 1 run defense in the NFL.
Now that they are shorthanded, this will be an insurmountable task.
Rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen has been awful as a starter. On the season, the Panthers have just two wins and both came at home to San Francisco and Arizona.
The bottom line here is that the Steelers will be able to stack the box, stuff the Panthers running game and force the game on Clausen, who leads the NFL's 32nd-ranked pass offense.
The Steelers offense should be able to move the ball regularly in this game and part of that will be based on their defense forcing three-and-outs and putting their offense in good field position.
It's just hard to fathom the Panthers being able to pass the ball well enough to make this close. They run a very complex 3-4 defense and Clausen hasn't seen anything like it.
The Steelers will dominate on both sides of the ball and earn the win and cover. 10* play.
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