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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-16-18||Patriots v. Jaguars||Top||20-31||Loss||-103||63 h 51 m||Show|
New England Patriots -103
The Patriots and Jags battle on Sunday in a rematch of an epic playoff matchup last season.
Any time you can get the Pats at this kind of price, it's certainly worth the move.
New England QB Tom Brady has made quite the legacy for himself and he added to that legacy last year against Jacksonville. Brady threw a pair of touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to advance the Patriots, while Jacksonville was left wondering what could have been.
Coming into this one, New England's offense has plenty of momentum. The Pats had 3 first quarter touchdowns from Brady in their 27-20 win over the Texans in Week 1. New England had plenty to take away from the win as this offense looks like they're in midseason form.
Some trends to note. Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 2. Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Tom Brady is 8-0 in his career against Jacksonville. This is certainly worth a nice move.
Back New England.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ML TOP PLAY
|09-15-18||Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -3||Top||28-35||Win||100||15 h 53 m||Show|
I see this as a great situational spot for the Bulls. Eastern Michigan is coming off an upset win over Purdue in West Lafayette last week. That has to have made Eastern Michigan feel pretty good about themselves. The Eagles now go to take on a Buffalo team that has the best quarterback in the MAC in Tyree Jackson.
Jackson and the Bulls passing attack are likely to be too much for the Eagles secondary. Eastern Michigan has only a mediocre pass rush, and their corners aren't very good. Jackson can sling it around and he has a lot of weapons on the outside.
Eastern Michigan isn't very explosive on offense. I don't think they have the balance on offense to keep up with Buffalo.
This game is going to be packed, and Buffalo is hyping this game in a big way for their home crowd. Expect a great atmosphere that helps the home team a lot. Buffalo is playing with something to prove, while I see Eastern Michigan as being in a terrible spot after a win over a Big Ten team.
A couple interesting trends. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Eastern Michigan is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 following a win.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* Rare CFB ATS Top Play
|01-08-18||Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia||Top||26-23||Loss||-107||21 h 49 m||Show|
The Crimson Tide proved quite the point last week. Alabama was questioned if they deserved a spot in the BCS Playoff compared to the Buckeyes.
However, they removed all doubt with an absolute dominate performance over Clemson and now will face rival Georgia here in the Championship Game.
While Georgia has played very well this year, they just aren't on the same level as Alabama. The Crimson Tide allow just 11 points per game and it stems from plenty of things. They simply dominate on the offensive end, wearing teams down and controlling the clock and tempo of the game. That in turn, allows the defense to not only get their rest, but gives them the momentum whenever taking the field.
Look for Alabama to control things from the outset here, frustrating this Georgia team in various ways.
Some trends to note. Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Lay the points here. Nick Saban has dominated his former coaches and this is a clear mismatch spot.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Monday 10* CFB ATS TOP PLAY
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons OVER 51||Top||17-20||Loss||-110||20 h 58 m||Show|
New Orleans vs. Atlanta Over 51
Two QBs who love to play in domes meet as the Saints and Falcons go at it.
Here, it's simply two explosive offenses that have QBs who can heave the ball deep down field.
Looking into the Saints first, Drew Brees leads an offense that is putting up 29.4 points per game. Brees himself has tossed for 3298 yards and added 17 touchdowns to his credit. This New Orleans offense can strike at any time with Brees' arm and he'll have the chance to feel almost right at home with the dome above him.
Matt Ryan isn't too far behind him. Ryan and the Flacons have put up less points, but with his weapons around him, there is always a chance for a big play. It starts with Julio Jones, who is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Ryan and Jones have built a connection where they can hit anywhere, which adds a lot of value to this over in terms of scoring quickly.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-2 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 vs. NFC South.
Expect a ton of action here.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 10* NFL O/U TOP PLAY
|11-10-17||Washington -6.5 v. Stanford||Top||22-30||Loss||-110||103 h 17 m||Show|
Getting the Huskies under a touchdown here is a nice move for us.
Washington is in the drivers seat for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship and still continue their quest for an outside shot at the BCS Playoffs. We backed the Huskies last week against the Ducks and we're going to do it again here this week.
Washington is just incredibly dominant on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they give up just 11.1 points per game, which is 2nd in the NCAA. They'll get a heavy dosage of the run game against Stanford, which won't be a problem here. The Huskies rank first overall in total defense and 6th against the run, allowing just 92 yards on the ground per game.
Given that, Stanford simply won't be able to keep up scoring wise. Washington is averaging over 38 points a game and has one of the best QBs in the nation in Jake Browning.
Some trends to note. Huskies are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
This number is too nice to pass up on. Washington has a huge edge here.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Friday 10* CFB ATS TOP PLAY
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys||Top||17-28||Win||100||55 h 14 m||Show|
The Cowboys are in a nice spot here on Sunday and this is a valuable line.
Dallas was just given word that running back Ezekiel Elliot will be granted stay for Sunday here in this one. That adds a huge impact to this already impressive Dallas offense.
Elliot has been on a different level over the past two games, rushing for 297 yards and four touchdowns. His abilities open a whole new gameplan for this Dallas offense.
It allows Prescott to open the pass game up, which is a very dangerous one considering the weapons he has to work with. WR Dez Bryant has 4 touchdowns on the season, as he is one of the biggest threats throughout the entire NFL. If Elliot gets going early, expect Prescott and Bryant to have a field day as gaps should open up in this secondary.
Some trends to note. Cowboys are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Dallas is at a nice line here, especially given the status of Zeke.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY Play
|10-28-17||Washington State -2.5 v. Arizona||Top||37-58||Loss||-110||124 h 15 m||Show|
Washington State -2.5
The Cougars lay under a field goal on the road in Arizona and this offense is just too much for the Wildcats to keep up with on Saturday.
Washington State got their groove back last week as they absolutely dominated Colorado in all aspects. The Cougars pass game controlled everything, sustaining drives and keeping the offense on the field as they built momentum with every play.
The Cougars have tossed for 359.8 yards per game, while racking up an impressive 33.6 points per contest. They face a Wildcats defense that is conceding 257.6 yards per game through the air, which ranks 99th in the NCAA.
Defensively, the Cougars have been top notch. They rank 7th overall in total yards and 21st in points against.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Washington State has dominated this head to head recently. Along with that, they're just the too much to overcome given their pass game against this pass defense.
Back Washington State.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB ATS TOP PLAY
|10-22-17||Bengals v. Steelers -5||Top||14-29||Win||100||79 h 37 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Steelers -5
AFC North rivals clash as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals go at it on Sunday.
Pittsburgh may finally be 100% back on track after last weeks performance. The Steelers went into KC and had some very timely offensive plays, as well as just solid defense all around in an outright win over the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh has leaned on that defense all season long, as they are giving up just 17 points per game. Total yards wise, they rank 3rd in the NFL, conceding only 272 yards. The Steelers defense has the ability to get off the field on 3rd downs and they continue to get the ball back into the offenses hands and allow them to control the tempo of games.
Le'Veon Bell is starting to find it as well, rushing for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns so far.
The Bengals offense is putting up just 16.8 points per game themselves. Dalton and company just haven't found it yet and that doesn't bode well for them heading into Pittsburgh Sunday.
Some trends to note. Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.Bengals are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
The Steelers have dominated this series. Given that, they have a lot of value at this number.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY
|09-30-17||Washington v. Oregon State OVER 63||Top||42-7||Loss||-110||101 h 47 m||Show|
Washington vs. Oregon State Over 63
Pac-12 foes clash on Saturday and we should see a lot of fireworks here in this one.
Starting with Washington, this team has the ability to create points very quickly. The Huskies put up a 27 point 2nd half last week in Colorado and they now average 44.5 points per game on the season, top tier in the NCAA. Behind Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin, this offense is about as explosive as anyone and tend to score in bunches.
They take on a Beavers defense that has given up 47.5 points per game, one of the worst marks in the nation. This matchup bodes extremely well for the Over.
Oregon State is no pushover offensively either. The Beavers are 4-0 to the Over this season and they rattled off 23 points against a Washington State defense that has been pretty good this year.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings in Oregon State.
This has been an Over head to head matchup in the past. Given that, on top of how the abilities of both offenses, this makes a lot of sense.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB O/U TOP PLAY
|09-23-17||Florida -2 v. Kentucky||Top||28-27||Loss||-110||92 h 14 m||Show|
Florida Gators -2
This line is far too low in this spot.
The Florida Gators come in on an extreme high and that momentum is exactly what they needed here. It was a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation that send The Swamp into a frenzy.
The Gators will be the first real test here for the Wildcats for the most part. Kentucky enters 3-0, but their win over South Carolina last week is their strongest and even that wasn't the most pleasant of a performance. Kentucky has just 347.7 yards per game this season and seeing this physical defense that just absolutely swarms is not a good match.
Head to head wise, Florida owns this series as of late. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kentucky and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Some other trends to note. Favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
The Gators are much more physical and will really wear this Wildcats team down.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB ATS TOP PLAY
|09-16-17||Cincinnati +5.5 v. Miami-OH||Top||21-17||Win||100||69 h 13 m||Show|
Cincinnati Bearcats +5.5
This is a precarious line here on Saturday.
The Bearcats travel to Miami OH to take on the Redhawks and they catch points here.
Cincinnati maybe isn't getting the most respect in this spot. The Bearcats actually gave the Wolverines a game last weekend as they were down just 1 possession in the 2nd half. Cincinnati has owned the Redhawks head to head as well.
In this series, the Bearcats have won 11 straight.
While Miami has played well through their first two games, a loss to Marshall and win over lowly Austin Peay is not much to write home about. On top of that, the Redhawks offense put up just 362 yards on average, one of the lowest marks in the nation through the first couple weeks of the season.
Some trends to note. Bearcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bearcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Catching points here with the Bearcats is a rare sight and a nice move here.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB ATS TOP PLAY
|09-09-17||Stanford v. USC OVER 54.5||Top||24-42||Win||100||71 h 11 m||Show|
Stanford vs. USC Over 54.5
The Pac-12 features a huge early season game with the Cardinal and Trojans battling on Saturday night.
After seeing how well both offenses can move the ball, this Over makes sense.
The Cardinal took it to the Rice Owls and before you could even blink, they had 4 touchdowns on the board. Stanford showed they are much different offense than past years, as they racked up a ridiculous 656 yards in total offense. Stanford showed a very aggressive attack, as the pass game put up 369 yards. That bodes well here against a USC defense that struggled mightily against the Western Michigan Broncos in Week 1.
From the USC side of things offensively, this team is going to be one of the best in conference. QB Sam Darnold did struggle in Week 1, but his abilities and arm strength are top notch. Don't forget, he threw for 3086 yards last year and had 31 touchdowns. This is certainly a chance to bounce back for him this week.
Some trends to note. Over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Southern California.
This has been a head to head Over series in the past. Given how talented both offenses are, this trend should continue.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB O/U TOP PLAY
|11-12-16||USC v. Washington UNDER 62||Top||26-13||Win||100||26 h 38 m||Show|
USC vs. Washington Under 62
With rain expected in the forecast, along with how good both of these defenses are, the Under here is extremely valuable.
First off, crappy conditions will plague Washington here on Saturday. Winds, and rain will be around starting Friday night and continue throughout the entire weekend.
Pace is also a huge deal here. USC is a slow team that will chew clock. Especially here in this case against one of the best offenses in the nation, the Trojans will do whatever it takes to keep the Huskies offense off the field.
On the season, the Trojans are conceding just 23 points per game. The Huskies defense is one of the best in the nation as they are giving up just 17 points per contest. That number even finds a way to improve at home as they average just 10.0 points against.
Some trends to note. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Under is 39-17 in Trojans last 56 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
These two teams typically play to the Under head to head wise. With the weather expected, this is going to be a sloppy offensive game, which gives the Under tremendous value.
Back the Under.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB O/U TOP PLAY
|12-26-15||Indiana v. Duke OVER 70||Top||41-44||Win||100||48 h 26 m||Show|
Indiana vs. Duke Over
Indiana and Duke battle it out inside Yankee Stadium and if you're looking for defense, don't look here. Both teams struggle to stop anybody and this gives us a solid bet here on the over.
This starts with Indiana. On defense, they're allowing 37.1 points per game this season. Yards wise, they are giving up 507.2 yards. Indiana had performances where they let up 47, 35, 34, 55, 52, 35 48, and 36.
Offensively, this steam is just as explosive. They had performances of 48,36,35,31,52,41,47, and 54. Those are some ridiculous numbers as this team can turn every play into a big play.
The Blue Devils defense started the season off well, but completely fell off late. They allowed 43 points to a poor Va Tech offense, 30 to Miami, 66 to UNC, 31 to Pittsburgh, and 42 to Virginia. These aren't overpowering offenses, which means this matchup won't bode well for Duke.
This has the feeling of a game that will have plenty of trick plays, along with deep passes built in with the play action pass. Both secondaries are extremely weak, giving this game the ability to be a shootout.
Back the over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB TOP PLAY
|12-06-15||Seahawks -1.5 v. Vikings||Top||38-7||Win||100||26 h 30 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks ATS
Seattle heads into Minnesota for a Sunday showdown with major playoff implications for both teams on the line. For Seattle, they've snuck into a Wild Card spot, but need to string together some wins here in order to hold on.
The Seahawks looked impressive last week as they dropped 39 on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Hawks offense is rolling right now behind Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls. Wilson comes in very high after throwing for 345 yards and 5 touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Rawls has been just as good as Marshawn Lynch, maybe even better, as he's ran for 290 yards and 2 TDs over the last 2 games.
Don't look into the loss of Jimmy Graham too much here. He wasn't nothing but a mere blocker in this offense and the offense won't have any problems without him here.
The Seahawks defense will certainly have the game plan in this one. Stack the box and stop the run. Seattle has struggled against the pass, but with Minnesota being a run first team, this is the perfect scenario to really stop Minnesota.
Don't expect Minnesota to keep up with the scoring in this one. Seattle is just too strong and too fast for the Vikings here.
It's December and that means time for the Seahawks to hit their stride. Seahawks are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December & 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, plus they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 13.
Back Seattle ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Sunday 10* NFL TOP PLAY
|12-05-15||Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 50||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||34 h 54 m||Show|
Air Force vs. San Diego State Under
The Air Force Falcons run the ball nearly every down and so do the San Diego State Aztecs. Clearly, that's a very good thing for the under. Anytime the clock is rolling consistently it is a good thing for under bettors.
More importantly, both of these teams have done a nice job stopping the run inside Mountain West Conference play. San Diego State has the single best run defense in the MWC. Air Force has the third best run defense in the conference.
San Diego State has a lot of experience going against triple option attacks, and that should give them the advantage against Air Force's offense here. Christian Chapman is a new starter at quarterback for the Aztecs and that should mean the game plan is very conservative. Donnell Pumphrey will get the ball a lot of times in this game.
Even the scoring drives here should take a bunch of time. The defenses have the upper hand.
Take the under.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
RARE Saturday 10* CFB TOP PLAY
|11-11-15||Bowling Green v. Western Michigan OVER 75.5||Top||41-27||Loss||-106||34 h 37 m||Show|
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan Over
What a treat we get here. Two of the best offenses not just in the MAC, but in the Nation, get set to battle it out Wednesday night. This gives us a solid opportunity to pound the Over here.
Western Michigan's offense ranks 22nd in the country with 485.5 yards per game while Bowling Green's ranks 3rd with 593.7. Both offenses offer pass games that are far more superior than most power conference schools. WMU throws for 277.6 pass yards per game, while Bowling Green throws for 430.2 per game.
Scoring wise, things get even better here. Bowling Green is averaging 45.9 points per game, while Western Michigan doesn't sit too far behind with 38.0. Defensively these teams aren't anything to write home about either. They both concede nearly 4 touchdowns per game, which means both offenses should have no problem whatsoever moving the ball here on Wednesday.
The QB situations are even prettier. Combined, both Matt Johnson of BG and Zach Terrell of WMU have thrown for 56 touchdowns this season. That is quite the number.
This is going to be one of those games you will not want to miss. Touchdown after touchdown will be scored here as both teams have the ability to seriously grab the Over themselves or at least get close to it.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Wednesday CFB 10* TOP PLAY
|10-31-15||Vanderbilt v. Houston -11||Top||0-34||Win||100||90 h 6 m||Show|
Houston Cougars ATS
The Cougars welcome in a bottom tier SEC team in Vanderbilt on Saturday night, under the lights. Getting the #19 Cougars at this price is extremely valuable.
Houston has been rolling this year. Currently 7-0, the Cougars have a legit chance at a BCS spot if they can win out and do it in style. Their offense is just abusing opposing defenses as they're scoring 47.6 points per game. That number hits 53.5 at home, where they'll be on Saturday. QB Greg Ward Jr. is one of the most versatile QBs n the nation too.
Ward Jr. is completing 71% of his passes and has thrown for 1733 yards with 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. On the ground, Ward Jr. has rushed for 683 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Don't sleep on Houston's defense either. The Cougars defense is allowing only 19.7 points per game. They'll be going up against an offense that scores just 14.3 points on the road.
Houston is just simply on another level here. Vanderbilt doesn't offer much offensively and they will have zero chance at keeping up with Houston's high flying, high attack offense.
Back Houston ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 10* CFB TOP PLAY
|10-22-15||Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||20-3||Win||100||14 h 19 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks ATS
Seattle travels to San Francisco for Thursday Night Football and with the Seahawks laying just 6.5 here, this has TREMENDOUS value.
Situationally, the Seahawks come in here needing a win. They coughed up a late lead last week against the Panthers, which followed a collapse against the Bengals. While both losses should have been wins, they came against a pair of undefeated teams in the NFL.
Offensively, TE Jimmy Graham is coming off his best performance in a Seahawks uniform and if he contributes the way he did last game, this Hawks offense is so much better. Graham caught 8 receptions for 140 yards.
RB Marshawn Lynch was also able to get his legs back underneath him as he missed two games with a hamstring injury. He can be expected to have a much quicker step in this one as he's shaken the rust off after last game.
Seattle has also had the 49ers number. Seattle has won 5 of 6 head-to-head meetings and held San Francisco to just 10 points combined in the 2 meetings last year. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is just 1-5 in his career against Seattle.
Expect Seattle to come out with fire in their eyes on both sides of the ball as they send a message with a giant win on Thursday.
Back Seattle ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 10* NFL ATS TOP PLAY
|09-26-15||TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 80.5||Top||55-52||Win||100||29 h 1 m||Show|
TCU vs. Texas Tech Over
The #2 Horned Frogs get set to take on Texas Tech and the listed total is one of the highest in quite some time. However, we get 2 very good offenses and 2 very bad defenses which means this game could become ridiculously high scoring.
Head-to-head wise the Horned Frogs racked up 82 points themselves last year when they defeated the Red Raiders. Thus far, TCU has averaged 63 points over their last two games and Texas Tech has averaged 54.3 points through their first 3.
TCU QB Trevone Boykin took about a game and a half, but he has certainly found his 2014 form. Boykin is coming of a 454 yard performance that saw him throw for 5 touchdowns. Last year against Texas Tech, Boykin tossed 433 yards and 7 touchdowns in the 82-27 route.
As for Texas Tech, their problem has always been their defense. They allowed over 500 yards of offense and 45 points to Sam Houston State in Week 1. The offense has been killing it to cancel out the poor defense. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 1029 yards and 9 touchdowns thus far.
Over is 5-2 in Horned Frogs last 7 road games.Over is 19-7 in Red Raiders last 26 games following a S.U. win
With that, TCU and Texas Tech are going to light up the scoreboard in this one. While the public will see this high total and immediately think Under, both of these teams have such good offenses and such bad defense that they'll be exchanging touchdowns left and right.
Back the Over.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
NCAAF 10* Saturday TOP PLAY
|12-23-14||Navy v. San Diego State UNDER 54||Top||17-16||Win||100||126 h 15 m||Show|
Navy vs. San Diego State Under 54
|10-25-14||Ohio State -13.5 v. Penn State||Top||31-24||Loss||-106||39 h 57 m||Show|
Ohio State -13.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes aren’t the same team they were several weeks ago. It truly is amazing what Urban Meyer is doing with this young talented team. J.T. Barrett looked bad against Virginia Tech several weeks ago, but he looks amazing of late.
The Buckeyes have scored 50 points in four straight contests. Ohio State’s uptempo offense is loaded with talented players at the skill positions and the offensive line is coming together very well. The Buckeyes can beat you by running it or throwing it.
Penn State’s defense has some pretty decent numbers, but I think it’s been because of the lack of quality offenses they have faced. The Nittany Lions defensive statistics are going to look a whole lot worse on Sunday morning than they do right now. Look for the Buckeyes balanced attack to do a lot of damage here.
What about the Penn State offense? Christian Hackenburg isn’t going to have time to throw in this game. The Nittany Lions primary weakness is their offensive line. Ohio State’s strength is their defensive line. Guys like Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett are going to be all over Hackenburg in this one.
Penn State wants a big win here, but they are badly outclassed. The Buckeyes need style points. They’ll run it up.
Take Ohio State.
|10-23-14||San Diego Chargers +8 v. Denver Broncos||Top||21-35||Loss||-110||35 h 3 m||Show|
San Diego Chargers +8
The Denver Broncos host the San Diego Chargers on Thursday evening. Denver is coming off a 42-17 win over the 49ers, while San Diego dropped its last game to the Chiefs.
Chargers head coach Mike McCoy knows the Broncos offense nearly as well as Peyton Manning does, and while his squad has been able to give Manning and the Broncos trouble in recent meetings, the team just hasn't had the horses in the secondary to really make the most of a solid game plan. With one or both of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett in the lineup, the Chargers will go a long way in disrupting the Broncos' offensive attack.
With the oddsmakers giving the Broncos far too much credit in this one, we'll gladly bump this play up to our top rating, and run, not walk, to the ticket window to get in on this inflated line.
The Chargers are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver.
Take San Diego.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
|10-12-14||Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5||Top||37-37||Loss||-107||73 h 50 m||Show|
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in Week 6.
Cincinnati is coming off a 43-17 loss to New England, while Carolina beat Chicago in their last outing, 31-24. The Panthers get the Bengals at the worst possible time in this one. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Patriots on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. That will have them eager to get back into the win column, and they’ll want to do so in decisive fashion as a reminder that they are in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.Much like what we see in this matchup, last week’s loss to New England was more a case of bad circumstance for Cincinnati, which ran into a Patriots team that was embarrassed the previous week and came out with something to prove. Now that shoe is on the other foot as the Bengals will have something to prove, and they’ll get to do so on their home field where they enjoy one of the best home field advantages in all of football.
As for the Panthers, they’re a bit of a mess right now. Quarterback Cam Newton is still being limited by an injured ankle and ribs, and head coach Ron Rivera has admitted that the playbook hasn’t been fully opened because of Newton’s limitations. A backfield of retreads and afterthoughts may have been enough against a lousy Bears defense last week, but that’s not going to cut it against one of the top defenses in football, and one that will be extra-motivated to dominate this matchup.
With this game presenting a uniquely favorable set of circumstances, we’ll gladly bump this play up to our top rating.
The Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY
|10-04-14||Pittsburgh v. Virginia -5||Top||19-24||Push||0||24 h 5 m||Show|
The Virginia Cavaliers are a much better team in 2014 than almost anyone expected them to be. Pittsburgh looked good early in the season, but they have been exposed in their last couple games. While many believe the Panthers will bounce back here, I don’t see it that way.
Pittsburgh has a good running back in James Conner, and a terrific wide receiver in Tyler Boyd. The problem for the Panthers is those guys are their only playmakers. Quarterback Chad Voytik just isn’t good enough to win games for this team if they can’t run the ball effectively.
Pitt’s inability to win without running the ball down the opposition’s throat is precisely the problem with their chances against Virginia here. The Cavaliers have an excellent front seven that has stuffed the run well all season long. It’s highly unlikely that Pittsburgh will just be able to line up and run the ball at will.
Virginia’s defense was solid last year, but their offense was terrible. This year the Cavs offense is much better than it was last season. The Cavs have gotten solid quarterback play, and they run the football well. Virginia is a much more balanced offense than Pittsburgh.
Virginia has the better balanced offense as well as the stronger defense. The Cavaliers win this one comfortably.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
RARE 10* Top Play ATS Selection
|10-04-14||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -1.5||Top||31-48||Win||100||74 h 2 m||Show|
Mississippi State -1.5
With so many college football games per week, oddsmakers are bound to make a mistake every once a while, and we think they've hung a terrible number here.
Texas A&M took down Arkansas 35-28 in overtime last week, but we were not too impressed with that performance. The Aggies barely outgained an inferior squad at home, and probably would have lost that game if it weren't for a big fourth quarter collapse by the Razorbacks. A&M dominated South Carolina on the road back in Week 1, but that win looks less and less impressive with each passing week, as the Gamecocks lost outright to Missouri this week, a week after putting in a poor performance against Vanderbilt. All in all, we feel as though this Aggies squad is extremely overvalued.
Texas A&M's two victories over other SEC foes have seen them run the ball fairly well, but that will be nearly impossible against a stout Bulldogs defense. South Carolina has limited opponents to just 2.4 yards per carry this season, and shut down LSU's ground game in their last contest.
The spot also strongly favors Mississippi State, as they've had two weeks to prepare for this game. We would ordinarily fear a Bulldogs letdown after their win over LSU, but with two weeks in between, that should be a non-issue. The Aggies, meanwhile, are playing their third consecutive road game, and this one comes at an early start time. That is simply not a good spot for even the best of teams.
The Aggies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 overall, and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning road record.
Take Mississippi State.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY
|01-01-14||Iowa +8 v. LSU||Top||14-21||Win||100||90 h 4 m||Show|
The LSU Tigers battle the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Outback Bowl.
Oddsmakers have failed to make enough of a correction in light of the injury to LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Backup quarterback Anthony Jennings led the Tigers to a game-winning drive against Arkansas, but that was the Razorbacks, and this is the Hawkeyes. Jennings only has 10 career pass attempts, and won't be aided by the strong LSU defense from years past.
The Tigers surrendered 23 points per game and over 350 yards per game this season, their worst numbers on defense since 2001.
The Hawkeyes are a very underrated squad. Their four losses this season came against teams with a combined 45-6 record. Iowa has the better defense in this one, surrendering just 19 points per game and 303 yards per game this year. The Hawkeyes boast one of the best linebacking corps in the entire country and should wreak havoc in the LSU backfield.
The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY on Iowa Hawkeyes +8
|12-26-13||Utah State +2.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||21-14||Win||100||173 h 28 m||Show|
Utah State +2.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies will do battle with the Utah State Aggies on Thursday, Dec. 26 in the S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.
The Aggies put on a show in their bowl game last season and we expect them to do it again this time around.
|12-15-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3||Top||20-30||Win||100||93 h 35 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night in Week 15 of the NFL season. Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-28 loss to Miami, while Cincinnati beat Indianapolis in their last game, 42-28.
Wins for the Bengals in Pittsburgh have historically been few and far between, yet it's Cincinnati giving away points in this one.
The Bengals are coming off a dominant home win over the Colts, but the team has been a completely different animal on the road this season, where they are 3-4 on the season, including losses in each of their other two road divisional matchups.
The Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Now they go to Pittsburgh to take on an improved Steelers team that has been much better since their break, largely due to the emergence of offensive weapons LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC North opponents, and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these teams.
The Steelers' backs are against the wall as another loss would surely sink their postseason hopes.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
With the oddsmakers having gotten this line wrong and favoring the wrong side, we'll bump this play up to our top rating.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* TOP PLAY on Pittsburgh Steelers +3
|11-16-13||Houston +16 v. Louisville||Top||13-20||Win||100||50 h 35 m||Show|
The Houston Cougars battle the 19th-ranked Louisville Cardinals in an AAC bout at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
Houston may have lost to UCF last week but that's not deterring us from taking them this week. The Cougars are a vastly improved squad and oddsmakers have been slow to catch on.
Rookie quarterback John O'Korn has been stellar this season, completing 63.1 percent of his passes with an outstanding 23:6 touchdown to interception ratio. Louisville's offense can score points but Houston will be able to keep up here.
Houston's offense has scored an average of 38.1 points per game this season, ranking 21st in the NCAA. The Cougars' scoring ability is the reason that they continuosly cash in week in and week out, putting together an 8-1 ATS record this year.
On the other side of things, Louisville hasn't been able to run up margins this season. The Cardinals last three contests have resulted in a 24-10 win over 5-3 Rutgers, a 34-3 victory over 2-6 South Florida, and a 31-10 win over 0-8 Connecticut.
The Cardinals lost a spring in their step when they fell to UCF a month ago. Subsequently, Louisville is just 1-4 ATS over their last five games overall.
Louisville is 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a win over more than 20 points.
Take Houston at our top rating.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
10* Play on Houston Cougars +16
|10-05-13||West Virginia v. Baylor -27.5||Top||42-73||Win||100||50 h 11 m||Show|
|01-20-13||San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||28-24||Win||100||167 h 39 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
|01-02-13||Louisville +14 v. Florida||Top||33-23||Win||100||103 h 53 m||Show|
The Florida Gators will battle the Louisville Cardinals in the Sugar Bowl on Wednesday.
Louisville needed a late field goal against Rutgers to win the Big East title game. Beating Rutgers shows that Louisville can hang with a tough defense. Teddy Bridgewater makes the Cardinal offense go. He ranks seventh in the nation in passer rating, throwing for 3,452 yards and 25 touchdowns.
The Cardinals will be in tough against a Gator defense that ranks fifth in the nation, but they won
|12-29-12||Air Force v. Rice OVER 61||Top||14-33||Loss||-110||192 h 15 m||Show|
Rice & Air Force over 61
The Rice Owls will battle the Air Force Falcons in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday.
Rice is riding a hot streak into this bowl game. The team scored an average of 39.3 points per game over their final three contests. A very productive year saw them score the second-most points and rack up the second-most yards in school history.
Quarterback Taylor McHargue is a threat to beat you with both his arm, and his legs, rushing for 11 touchdowns on the year. First team All-Conference wide receiver Vance McDonald caught 16 balls for 184 yards and a score in the final two weeks of the season after returning from a toe injury.
Air Force doesn
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State UNDER 59.5||Top||43-10||Win||100||291 h 21 m||Show|
SMU & Fresno State under 59.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs battle the SMU Mustangs in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Monday. Fresno State won their first conference championship since 1999, while SMU upset Tulsa in their season finale.
The Fresno State offense has been impressive this season, but they wouldn't be the first unit to stumble in Hawaii.
Their defense is led by Philip Thomas, who himself has already made two trips to Hawaii. The senior defensive back was named the Mountain West
|12-23-12||NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||14-33||Loss||-125||125 h 41 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens host the New York Giants on Sunday. Baltimore is coming off a 34-17 loss to Denver, while New York was embarrassed by Atlanta their last time out, 34-0.
The Giants have alternated dominant performances with lousy ones since their bye in Week 11 and if that pattern holds true, they
|12-10-12||Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -3||Top||14-42||Win||100||79 h 30 m||Show|
The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans on Monday night. New England beat Miami 23-16 last week, while Houston is coming off a 24-10 win over Tennessee.
New England certainly ranks as an elite passing team, and that
|11-18-12||Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4||Top||13-10||Win||100||50 h 57 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Baltimore swept the season series between these teams a year ago.
Pittsburgh was able to hold off Kansas City, but lost Ben Roethlisberger in the process. Byron Leftwich was passable in relief, but the team
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||50 h 20 m||Show|
The Indiana Hoosiers host the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. This game will be the final home contest of the season for the Hoosiers.
Indiana has won its last two games, going on the road to beat Illinois, and beating Iowa last weekend at Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten in passing offense, racking up an average of 299.9 yards per game through the air, and are third in scoring offense with 33.1 points per game. The club has set a school record by scoring at least 24 points in each of their last 10 games.
Joel Stave suffered a broken collarbone in last week
|11-04-12||Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns||Top||25-15||Win||100||92 h 14 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is coming off their bye week, while Cleveland beat San Diego last week, 7-6.
The Ravens were blown out by the Houston Texans heading into their bye week, and that presents a situation that has been profitable for us in the past, as teams that get blown out heading into their bye week play with a ton of passion in their next game. We
|10-27-12||Navy v. East Carolina OVER 49||Top||56-28||Win||100||54 h 34 m||Show|
Navy & East Carolina OVER 49
Once in a while the oddsmakers post a number that is completely wrong. When they do, we like to take the opportunity to step up to our highest rating.
The East Carolina Pirates host the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday. The teams have faced off in each of the last two seasons, scoring a combined 184 points in those two meetings.
East Carolina is scoring 34.7 points per game at home, but there
|10-21-12||NY Jets v. New England Patriots -10||Top||26-29||Loss||-109||76 h 18 m||Show|
New England -10
The New England Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday. New England lost to Seattle last week, while New York is coming off a convincing win over Indianapolis.
New England doesn
|10-13-12||Akron v. Ohio OVER 66||Top||28-34||Loss||-105||21 h 6 m||Show|
Akron/Ohio over 66
The Akron Zips have a new look with Terry Bowden as their head coach this year. Akron likes to get as many plays in as possible, so they go with a fast-paced offense. The Zips have been able to put up points so far this year, even against high quality competition. Akron put up 38 points in a loss to FIU. They also scored 26 points in Knoxville against the Tennessee Volunteers. Akron
|02-05-12||NY Giants v. New England Patriots UNDER 55||Top||21-17||Win||100||118 h 45 m||Show|
The New York Giants and New England Patriots played to a 17-14 scoreline the first time they met in the Super Bowl. While there's likely to be more points this time, the under still looks good.
The Patriots haven't allowed more than 27 points in any one game this season and while they played a very easy schedule, they haven't scored more than 23 against any team with a winning record.
Both teams know how to stifle each other defensively, especially the Giants, who know how to rush Tom Brady and get him out of rhythm.
Both teams will play ball control and keep away (only two possessions in the first quarter of Super Bowl XLII and only 10 first half points). Bet the under in this one. 10* play.
|01-22-12||Baltimore Ravens +9 v. New England Patriots||Top||20-23||Win||100||163 h 55 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens are a huge underdog in New England on Saturday but they'll be on even footing with the Patriots when the game starts.
Overall, the Patriots have an elite passing game but their defense is brutal, their running game is suspect and they don't have the type of balance that Baltimore offense.
The Patriots have played just two teams with a winning record this season and they lost both games. As for Baltimore, they played seven teams with a winning record this year and won each time. They've faced New England three times in the last three years (each time on the road) and they won once (in the playoffs 33-14) and lost twice by a margin of 4.5 points.
They'll be confident on Sunday and nine points is too much to lay with a team that is suspect. Baltimore is more than capable to win this game outright and that's actually what we'll be expecting. Bet the Ravens. 10* play.
|01-15-12||Houston Texans v. Baltimore Ravens -7.5||Top||13-20||Loss||-110||90 h 15 m||Show|
Writeup coming shortly. 10* play.
|01-08-12||Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -3||Top||2-24||Win||100||73 h 7 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants are two similar teams, but there are some key edges that point us to the Giants in this contest.
For starters, the Falcons didn't play well against winning teams all season. They lost four of six games against teams above .500 and covered the spread just once in those games. As for the Giants, they were 5-2 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
It's hard to trust the Falcons, who are an indoor dome team, going on the road outside in the cold. The Falcons run defense ranked sixth in the NFL but collapsed down the stretch of the season, giving up 398 yards on 65 carries (6.15 yards per carries) in their final four games. They'll be without starting linebacker Stephen Nicholas on Sunday.
The Giants tend to play to the level of their competition, and with a quality team visiting in the playoffs, look for them to take care of business. Bet the Giants. 10* play.
|01-07-12||Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -3||Top||10-31||Win||100||53 h 40 m||Show|
The Houston Texans beat the Cincinnati Begnals in Cincy earlier this year and they get another crack on Saturday.
One reason why this contest might be easier is this time they are at home and Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been dealing with the flu this week. They'll have problems running the ball against the Texans stout run defense, so the Bengals backfield could be very ineffective. Also, we don't know the extent of the flu as it could have been passed around to more players than just Dalton.
The Texans were 5-1 against the spread against teams with a winning record while the Bengals were just 2-5 overall against teams above .500.
Playing at home, take the Texans in this spot. 10* play.
|01-03-12||Michigan -2.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||23-20||Win||100||42 h 56 m||Show|
Virginia Tech has just two losses on the year, both coming to Clemson, but the interesting note is that Michigan is a very similar team to the Tigers.
The Tigers did whatever they wanted to the Hokies and they were really one of the few capable offenses that the Hokies faced. Georgia Tech also had a good output. The Wolverines are humming heading into this contest as they racked up 339 rushing yards and four touchdowns against Purdue, and they topped 223 rushing yards in seven of 10 games. The Hokies gave up 200 rushing yards or more in four of their last five games, and they could be vulnerable.
The Wolverines defense has a good front lines and if they can slow down running back David Wilson, they'll have a great chance to win. They have the 12th run defense in the nation, so they should be more than capable. Bet the Wolverines. 10* play.
|01-02-12||Stanford v. Oklahoma State -4||Top||38-41||Loss||-110||18 h 20 m||Show|
Writeup coming shortly. 10* play.
|12-29-11||Washington +10 v. Baylor||Top||56-67||Loss||-105||81 h 31 m||Show|
Two good offenses will be on the field on Thursday but both teams have brutal defenses. While most people are comfortable laying 10 with the Baylor Bears because they are ranked and are led by the Heisman Trophy winner, the truth is that Washington's offense is nearly as good and their defense might be a tad better.
Look for Washington to pound the football with Chris Polk to keep the Baylor offense off the field. Polk has been great on the ground all season long and we've seen Baylor gashed multiple times on the ground this season (Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, etc.).
10 points is too much to lay in this spot. Bet the Huskies. 10* play.
|12-24-11||Oakland Raiders +122 v. Kansas City Chiefs||Top||16-13||Win||122||59 h 27 m||Show|
The Oakland Raiders are out for revenge and they should be able to get some against a Kansas City Chiefs team that played their Super Bowl last week.
The Chiefs are coming off a stunning upset of the then-perfect Green Bay Packers and it will be tough for them to match the intensity they put forth in that game. On top of that, the Raiders should be fired up to get some revenge against the Chiefs, who shut them out 28-0 at home earlier this season.
The Raiders main weakness on defense is their pass defense but the Chiefs are more of a dink and dunk team. They need to run the ball to have success and Oakland is more than capable of slowing that down.
Oakland has covered the spread in 12 of their last 16 divisional games and they still control their playoff destiny. Bet them to win on Saturday. 10* play.
|12-22-11||Arizona State v. Boise State -14||Top||24-56||Win||100||173 h 36 m||Show|
The Boise State Broncos are one of the best teams in the country when it comes to big-game preparation and they'll do the same in this one.
This will be quarterback Kellen Moore's final game with the Broncos and he's eyeing his 50th career win, which would make him the winningest quarterback in college football history. He's playing along with 21 other seniors that will be fired up to finish strong.
Meanwhile, the Arizona State Sun Devils choked away their BCS chances by blowing a 6-2 start with four losses to finish the year. They mailed in those efforts as Arizona and Washington State both passed for nearly 500 yards while California ran for 247 yards. The Sun Devils didn't allow less than 29 in any of those four games.
They've also fired head coach Dennis Erickson already and this will be his last game. They'll be deflated to be here after having a shot at the BCS and going up against a Top 10 team in the country, they'll get smoked one more time. 8* play.
|12-18-11||New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos +7.5||Top||41-23||Loss||-105||50 h 58 m||Show|
The Denver Broncos simply aren't getting any respect. Even after winning seven of their last eight games, the media, fans and other NFL players continue to doubt them as some kind of a gimmick.
The bottom line in this spot here is that the New England Patriots might not actually be the better football team - believe it or not.
Sure, Tom Brady is outstanding and he's got better offensive weapons with Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez, but defense and home-field advantage tend to win out in the long run in the NFL and both will be on the Broncos side.
The Broncos are giving up just 27% third down conversions over the last eight games and they've picked up 12 turnover and 25 sacks in that span. There's no question that Brady will move the ball but Denver might be able to slow him down, whereas there is less faith that the Patriots defense can slow anyone down at all.
The Patriots barely escaped with a 34-27 win in Washington last week after the Redskins racked up 463 yards of offense. The week before, the hapless and winless Indianapolis Colts scored 24 points on New England.
Denver has the running game and ball control-type of offense to pull off this win - let alone cover seven points.
Tim Tebow has continually improved as a passer each week and this week might be his easiest game. The Pats have the NFL's worst defense, allowing 416 yards per game and the league's worst pass defense (giving up 8.1 yards per passing play). They have just 29 sacks on the year.
This game will be far closer than most expect. Bet the Broncos. 10* play.
|12-11-11||Oakland Raiders v. Green Bay Packers OVER 51.5||Top||16-46||Win||100||88 h 15 m||Show|
The Green Bay Packers are the highest scoring team in the NFL and they shouldn't have too many problems getting to at least 30 versus the Oakland Raiders. After all, the Miami Dolphins scored 34 points
Green Bay hasn't scored less than 27 points in any of their last six games while Oakland has played well offensively too. The other two times when they fell flat on their face, coughing up the big lead to Buffalo and getting shutout by Kansas City, the Raiders bounced back with 34 and 24 points.
Aside from last week's debacle, the Raiders have scored at least 24 in every game since their bye. Bet the over. 10* play.
|12-11-11||Chicago Bears v. Denver Broncos -187||Top||10-13||Win||100||88 h 6 m||Show|
There's little faith in the Chicago Bears this week after they couldn't even beat the Kansas City Chiefs at home. Without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the Bears mustered just three points against a so-so Chiefs defense, and the task will get much harder on the road in Denver.
The Bears are not getting any consistent passing from quarterback Caleb Hanie, they can't block for him and now there's no ground game for support. Denver isn't great on offense but at least Tim Tebow can move the football. Overall, they are playing with far more confidence than the Bears. Bet the Broncos. 10* play.
|12-03-11||Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -3||Top||10-44||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
Oklahoma State has been building towards this game for years and after flopping in a similar position last season, they are going to be more than ready for this one.
Bedlam will have plenty of high stakes and for the first time in a long time, this game means more to the Cowboys than it does the Sooners. The Cowboys, though, have had two weeks to prepare for this contest and are going to bring one of their best efforts of the season.
The Sooners just aren't quite right this year. They have suffered injuries to their top wideout and rusher, but even aside from that, they aren't running the ball crisply and they are having problems in the red zone.
Oklahoma State has one of the most explosive offenses in the country and they are going to get their yards and points. One can expect the Sooners to counter, but they have been a different team on the road this season - as they usually are.
With home field advantage, two weeks off, less injuries and more motivation, bet the Cowboys to get the job done in this spot. 10* play.
|11-27-11||Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -9||Top||24-28||Loss||-110||40 h 22 m||Show|
The Buffalo Bills are a sinking ship these days as they have lost three straight and four of five. The scary part is that they have been outscored 106-26 in the last three games and have not been competitive at all.
One of those losses came at home to the very same New York Jets as the Bills couldn't get anything going on offense. Believe it or not, life could be much easier for the Jets this time around.
For starters, the NFL's third-leading rusher, Fred Jackson, is now out for the year. Top receiver Stevie Johnson will play, but he isn't 100%. No. 2 receiver Donald Jones is out for the year as his Naaman Roosevelt. The Bills will also be without kicker Rian Lindell, safety George Wilson and cornerback Terrence McGee.
The Jets are relatively healthy and have had 10 days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. This season, they have been far more effective at home (4-1) than on the road (1-4). Bet the Jets. 10* play.
|11-26-11||Penn State v. Wisconsin -14.5||Top||7-45||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
The Penn State Nittany Lions stunned the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend at The Horseshoe and now have a shot to play for in the Big Ten title game if they can win at Camp Randall.
Unfortunately for them, winning at Camp Randall is quite challenging.
The Wisconsin Badgers have been vulnerable at times over the last few seasons but they are nearly untouchable at home.
This is really a matchup of one team who has an explosive, multi-faceted offense (Wisconsin) against a team that has a listless offense that needs smoke and mirrors to get the job done (Penn State). The Nittany Lions whipped out the Wildcat last week and unfortunately for them, it may have come a week too early. It would have been a nice surprise for Wisconsin but the Badgers will now be prepared for it.
The Lions defense will keep them in it for a half but the Badgers will continue to throw body blows and after halftime, Penn State won't be able to respond. Bet the Badgers. 10* play.
|11-20-11||Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41||Top||7-23||Win||100||95 h 20 m||Show|
The Arizona Cardinals have struggled this season but their defense has been strong of late. They stifled the Philadelphia Eagles offense last week and we're going to look for them to keep their team in the game once again this week.
The 49ers obviously have a strong defense of their own and they'll be handed the challenge of slowing down John Skelton this week. He was somewhat lucky against Philadelphia last week as he missed a number of throws and two of his biggest plays came on tipped passes. Without much of a running game, don't expect the Cardinals to be scoring very much on the road this week.
For the 49ers, they'll continue to pound away on the ground, make smart decisions and do what the defense gives them. That should translate to a low-scoring affair in the Bay today. 10* play.
|11-19-11||Oklahoma -15 v. Baylor||Top||38-45||Loss||-110||30 h 27 m||Show|
The fact that Baylor is even ranked is somewhat comical. We're talking about a team is just 3-3 in their last six and lucky to even be .500.
Last week, against hapless Kansas, the Bears were trailing the Jayhawks 24-3 in the fourth quarter - and that was at home. Granted they made their way back in a stunning comeback but Kansas has been brutal this season and no ranked team should be trailing them by that much at home.
In this contest, Oklahoma will have three advantages. For starters, they are coming off a bye week, so they have had two weeks to prepare. Secondly, they have a huge edge on the lines of scrimmage, so they should be able to impose their will all game long. And thirdly, they have the significantly better of the two defenses. While they will expect to get some stops, Baylor might not get any and will likely cough up points in and around the half-century mark.
Seven Baylor opponents have topped 30 this year - and that includes the likes of Rice. Oklahoma will score at will and win easily. 10* play.
|11-06-11||NY Giants v. New England Patriots -8.5||Top||24-20||Loss||-110||71 h 47 m||Show|
The New England Patriots are 26-2 after a loss in their last 28 times and we'll expect a serious bounce back on Sunday.
They actually need a win as the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are nipping at their heels and another loss might put their playoff position in a bit of peril.
That's not likely to happen given how the undisciplined New York Giants have played in recent weeks. Last week, the Giants made Matt Moore look like Peyton Manning as he picked them apart in the first half. The Giants couldn't regain their footing until the fourth quarter, when they finally eked out a win.
This week, they are shorthanded as running back Ahmad Bradshaw has a fractured foot, backup Brandon Jacobs has a fractured ego and has been ineffective anyways, and wide receiver Hakeem Nicks isn't healthy.
This is a game for the Patriots to get right and get back over the 30-point mark. Look for plenty of points from them as they win and cover. 10* play.
|11-06-11||Green Bay Packers v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 51.5||Top||45-38||Loss||-110||71 h 47 m||Show|
While the public has been pounding this over all week long, we've got a different view of the game.
The San Diego Chargers are overmatched in this game from just about every perspective. They're not healthy, they're not rested and they're not very good overall. For them to win, their best path to achieve that will be to run the ball and play keep away.
Green Bay is rested and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They watched the blue print of how to beat the Chargers and that was simply by running the ball and keeping Philip Rivers on the sidelines.
Since the Packers are on the road, they won't be looking to blow anyone out. They'll be happy with a simple win. That might lead to more field goals than touchdowns and we already know that the Chargers do exactly that when they get into the red zone.
It's a tall total but this doesn't look like a shootout. Bet the under. 10* play.
|11-05-11||LSU +5 v. Alabama||Top||9-6||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
With two evenly matched teams on Saturday night in the game of the year, we're going to side with the road team and take the points. It's simply too good to pass up.
The LSU Tigers have proven a whole heck of a lot more this season than the Alabama Crimson Tide in terms of stomping quality opponents. LSU's wins over Oregon, West Virginia have been far more credible than Alabama's wins over Arkansas and Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a weak Big Ten team at best.
This will be a close game no doubt and we're probably going to see an under, so that makes it even more enticing to take the points.
But our keys here are that LSU's defense just has a little more swagger, their quarterbacks offer more experience and more dimensions and they've posted a better turnover margin on the season. Factoring that and the points means we have a good play on LSU. 10* play.
|11-05-11||Vanderbilt v. Florida -13.5||Top||21-26||Loss||-102||20 h 17 m||Show|
Vanderbilt has had a nice season, but they just aren't primetime. Their defense is decent, but their offense has been absolutely pathetic. Now they have to go on the road to The Swamp for homecoming and this one could get ugly.
The Commodores do their dirt on the ground and the Gators defense simply won't allow that this week. While the offense has been much maligned at times, the Gators defense has been prime time and they've hung on for as long as they've could in most games. In this contest, they'll finally have the edge on talent and they'll go to town.
If Vandy is forced to throw, they'll have to rely on the arm of Jordan Rodgers, who was four-of-19 for 47 yards against Georgia and 49-of-105 on the season with five interceptions.
The Gators will win the turnover battle and get back over .500 with an easy win in this spot. 10* play.
|10-30-11||Cleveland Browns v. San Francisco 49ers -8.5||Top||10-20||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
The San Francisco 49ers have been tough and rugged throughout the season, and we'll expect more of it as they come off of their bye week.
The Cleveland Browns are beaten up and worn down, and they don't tend to have a lot of success when they can't run the ball. That's going to be a problem against the 49ers defense, who is going to suffocate them.
Meanwhile, the 49ers will line up and pound the ball with Frank Gore, who is just 110 rushing yards short from becoming the franchise rushing leader. The Browns have the 19th-ranked rushing defense.
Cleveland hasn't looked so hot on the road this year, barely beating the Colts in Indianapolis and getting roughed up by the Raiders in Oakland. They just don't have the offense to really keep up on the road, so look for the 49ers to take advantage. Bet the 49ers. 10* play.
|10-29-11||Navy v. Notre Dame -21||Top||14-56||Win||100||22 h 59 m||Show|
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have already spanked a similar team that they'll be facing on Saturday, so we'll look for more of the same.
Notre Dame crushed Air Force by a count of 59-33 and while the Falcons scored 33 points, they really labored to move the ball against the Irish's improved defense. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish moved the ball at will and found themselves in scoring position on almost every possession.
There's no reason to think the same won't be the case against a Navy squad that is in fact worse. They are 2-5 and lost at home to Air Force earlier this year. They've also got losses to East Carolina, Rutgers and Southern Miss, who scored 63 points.
There is also the revenge factor as Notre Dame has lost two straight to Navy. They won't be losing a third and the two previous losses will ensure that they won't let up. Again, the key here is turnovers but facing a weak defense, we'll expect that not to be much of a problem. Bet Notre Dame. 10* play.
|10-23-11||Denver Broncos +111 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||18-15||Win||111||110 h 51 m||Show|
The Miami Dolphins are a veteran team that has yet to register a win this season, and they know exactly what's going to happen to their head coach in a short period of time.
Their mood is bad, their moral is low and they are on a short week after another flat effort.
The Denver Broncos are a much better team but at least there is a spark. Tim Tebow will get the start and the entire team seems to rally around him every time he's in the lineup. That's going to be the difference as good things seem to happen when he's in the game while the Dolphins experience the opposite with Matt Moore. 10* play.
|10-22-11||Georgia Tech +3 v. Miami (Florida)||Top||7-24||Loss||-115||97 h 26 m||Show|
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have cooled off in recent weeks and are coming off their first loss of the season, which was a setback at Virginia.
But Miami will offer them a chance to get back on track and we get to bet them in a place where they are finally offering value.
Georgia Tech pummeled N.C. State and handled Maryland but in each of those games, the Yellow Jackets allowed their opponent back into the game late in the fourth quarter. That caught up with them in Virginia as they're sloppy play started early opposed to late.
But overall, the Yellow Jackets are still an explosive running team and if they can hit a few throws to keep the Hurricanes defense off balance, there's no reason to believe they can't win this game.
Miami has had problems stopping the run all season long. They rank 11th in the ACC in run defense and considering who they are facing this week, that's a big problem. Miami will get their share of points too but they have been up and down all season long. At the end of the day, don't be surprised if the Yellow Jackets have the win. Bet Georgia Tech. 10* play.
|10-22-11||Arkansas -15 v. Ole Miss||Top||29-24||Loss||-110||46 h 50 m||Show|
Ole Miss has lost four times this season and scored a total of 40 points in those contests. Without question, they are one of the worst teams in the SEC and among the worst in the nation. Normally, when you mention a team be 'worst in the country' and you're referring to the SEC, you're talking about Vanderbilt but surprisingly enough, Vandy stomped Ole Miss 30-7.
The bigger concern here is two-fold: first off, Ole Miss knows that Houston Nutt is gone at the end of the season. Secondly, they know that they really don't have the talent to compete with quality SEC teams.
The Rebels defense gave up 226 rushing yards to Trent Richardson last week and the scary part is that the pass defense has been just as weak recently.
Arkansas is a team that's going to score points against the best of defenses, so you know they'll put up plenty this week. Unfortunately Ole Miss, who is ranked 103rd in points scored, is not built to hang around.
The Rebels are without their top pass rusher Wayne Dorsey and their top corner Marcus Temple. Ole Miss needs turnovers - and lots of them - just to hang around. Bet the Razordbacks. 10* play.
|10-16-11||Jacksonville Jaguars v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40.5||Top||13-17||Win||100||37 h 16 m||Show|
It's hard to see this game going over when only one team is really going to be able to move the football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has been absolutely awful this year as their 20-point total last week was their highest of the week. That actually was somewhat fluky as the Cincinnati Bengals blew a coverage and let the Jags score an easy touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
Even with those 20 points, the Jags have still averaged just 11.8 points per game. Going on the road to Heinz Field is not the place to find solutions to a sluggish offense.
The good news is that the Jags defense should be able to play physical early and keep this game close in the first half. They also match the Steelers physicality and that will work for a while until their offense hangs them out to dry.
Unless the Jags start turning the ball over like crazy, this game should be low scoring. Bet the under. 10* play.
|10-15-11||Florida State -13.5 v. Duke||Top||41-16||Win||100||101 h 3 m||Show|
The Florida State Seminoles have had problems aplenty, but losing to Duke would take that to a whole other level.
The reality about Florida State is that they aren't a top-five team as they were in the preseason. We know that. We also know that if injuries happen, they can't compete with elite teams. But they can still definitely beat Duke.
This is a get-right game for Florida State and they'll face a Duke team that has high spirits, but hasn't faced a defense like Florida State's.
Duke is not a good defensive team and they are going to get exposed. With E.J. Manuel back in the lineup, the Seminoles will do what they weren't able to do in previous weeks: pass the ball at will. The Blue Devils also don't have much of a running game, so that will allow the Seminoles defense to tee-off on Sean Renfree.
Any other year, Florida State might have a tough time getting up for this game but after facing Oklahoma and Clemson in back-to-back weeks followed by a sloppy effort at Wake Forest, not only will they be fired up they'll be plenty focused. Bet the Seminoles. 10* play.
|10-09-11||New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +7||Top||30-27||Win||100||51 h 1 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers have been a backdoor sweetheart all season long and we expect that to continue. They continue to be overlooked by the public mostly because they aren't winning games, but they simply don't have any quit to them now that they are being led by Cam Newton.
They'll be challenged this week as their awful defense goes up against the New Orleans Saints and their explosive offense, but really, that's nothing new for Carolina. They faced the Green Bay Packers at home a couple of weeks ago and they did just fine getting the back door cover.
The Saints defense is going to blitz the heck out of Newton but we've already heard that story before. The Packers did it, the Bears did and the Jaguars did it. Each time Newton did fine.
Look for Carolina to get their ground game going, which has been somewhat dormant to start the year and with Newton throwing the ball all over the place, expect them to keep this within a touchdown at home against a division rival. 10* play.
|10-09-11||Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars||Top||30-20||Win||100||51 h 0 m||Show|
Two rookie quarterbacks will be leading the offenses on Sunday but the Jacksonville Jaguars may have a sense of remorse when they see who the Cincinnati Bengals drafted in the second round.
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in the 2011 Draft and have watched him complete 47.8% of his passes with two touchdowns and two picks while averaging 5.9 yards per pass.
The Bengals took Andy Dalton in the second round and he's completed 58.1% of his passes with four touchdowns and four picks, while leading his team to two wins. They could easily be 3-1 right now.
Both teams have good defenses but the question is which offense will be able to move the ball. The Jags have no receiving weapons and little help from their quarterback. That makes it a tough chore to cover three points at home. Bet the Bengals. 10* play.
|10-08-11||Iowa +4 v. Penn State||Top||3-13||Loss||-105||23 h 56 m||Show|
Iowa has owned Penn State, winning eight straight meetings, and they'll be facing one of the easier editions of this team.
The Nittany Lions are a disaster on offense right now as both quarterbacks Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden have been terrible. The inconsistency at the position is not just affecting the offense as the entire team seems to get deflated when they struggle - or turn it over.
Different than previous years, Penn State doesn't have the running game to mask the quarterbacking problems. This is direct play against Penn State who's offense is dragging this team down in a major way. Bet Iowa. 10* play.
|10-01-11||Ole Miss v. Fresno State -3||Top||38-28||Loss||-120||57 h 35 m||Show|
Fresno State has defeated a BCS AQ team in each of the last four seasons and they've got one visiting on Saturday. The good news for them is that they're not very good.
Ole Miss is an absolute wreck these days but Fresno State won't care. It's the first time they have ever hosted an SEC school and they are going to play like this is their BCS Championship Game.
The Bulldogs have actually looked quite good to start the year. They were on the road twice to star the year and were a handful for both California and Nebraska. They've won two straight and quarterback Derek Carr has proven to be an emerging star. With Robbie Rouse balancing the offense with a good effort on the ground, the Bulldogs can actually move the ball and score - something that Ole Miss can't say for themselves.
The Rebels are averaging 235 passing yards per game (118th in the country). Throw in the fact that the Rebels have to travel across the country for this one and Fresno State should be able to get their signature win of 2011. 10* play.
|10-01-11||Alabama v. Florida +4||Top||38-10||Loss||-100||57 h 47 m||Show|
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the toast of the town so far this season but they haven't proved their mettle on the road. They'll be in for a dogfight on Saturday night and don't expect things to come as easy for them as they did against Arkansas.
We still don't know a lot about this team other than they have a great defense. They've run the ball on a number of feeble defenses but if they can do it this week, then we'll be believers.
The Gators have a stifling defensive front filled with plenty of athleticism. They aren't going to be pushed around by anyone in the SEC and the Crimson Tide - for the first time this season - will have a tough time running the ball. If that's the case, the workload falls on the shoulders of quarterback AJ McCarron and again, we don't know how he'll respond when the game is on the line.
Florida has improved coaching this year with the help of Charlie Weis manning the offense. He's a Super Bowl winning coordinator and he'll find ways to attack the Tide defense, as good as it is. Arkansas proved that there are some places to exploit and Florida has plenty of speed to do that.
This is a respect game for Florida as they have been run off the field by Alabama the last couple of seasons. At home, in front of a raucous crowd on Saturday night, they'll be game to play and pull the upset. There's less between these teams than most people think so with points and the home-field advantage, we're chomping Florida. 10* play.
|10-01-11||Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 66||Top||45-34||Win||100||1 h 12 m||Show|
This has all the makings of a shootout and we're not going to be scared away by a high total.
Both teams have excellent offenses and feeble defenses, so it's not hard to envision points aplenty.
For Texas Tech, their front seven is as weak as it gets. That means Kansas will be able to find success on the ground and if that's the case, Jordan Webb will be able to spread the ball around. The Red Raiders coughed up 256 rushing yards to Texas State and New Mexico found room. Kansas will as well.
Meanwhile, as bad as the Red Raiders run defense is, the Jayhawks secondary is even worse. They gave up 325 passing yards to McNeese State and struggled against Northern Illinois. They also gave up 604 total yards to Georgia Tech along with seven touchdowns.
Defense is optional in this contest and both teams will feel like they are in practice. Bet the over. 10* play.
|09-25-11||Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. St. Louis Rams||Top||37-7||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens have dominated the NFC under John Harbaugh and the same will be the case this week against a beat up St. Louis Rams squad on a short week.
The Rams offense is likely to be without Steven Jackson, who is the questionable to doubtful range. Even if he plays, he won't be at 100% and running at the Ravens in between the teams rarely works anyways. Backup Cadillac Williams is also questionable and hasn't practiced most of the week and there's a good chance he's also out. That puts more pressure on the Rams passing game, which has struggled to find it's rhythm under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Rams are struggling in the red zone, where they've converted once in five trips.
The Ravens are pissed after their letdown on the road in Tennessee last week. After smoking the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week One, they came out flat and were rolled by a medium-grade Titans team. Expect the Ravens offense to get back on track as they've averaged 27.7 points per game against NFC teams under Harbaugh and 26.3 last year. They'll get back on track with a win this week. 10* play.
|09-24-11||Oregon -15 v. Arizona||Top||56-31||Win||100||129 h 35 m||Show|
The Arizona Wildcats are a team in flux right now and a matchup against another elite team isn't going to help matters.
The Wildcats were spanked by the Stanford Cardinal 37-10 last week and now they host the 10th-ranked Oregon Ducks, who have an even more explosive offense.
While the Wildcats do have a possible NFL-type quarterback in Nick Foles and arguably the deepest receiving corps in school history, they lack virtually everywhere else and it's killing them right now. Their offensive line has five new starters and gave up five sacks to Stanford last week. They are getting no push for the running game has just 240 yards this season - and that's including their game against Northern Arizona. This past week alone, they gave up 242 rushing yards to Stanford.
The Wildcats defense is also very green on their line of scrimmage and they are getting pushed around real easy right now. They allowed Stanford to go for scoring drives of 91, 81, 80, 72, 65, 64, and 57 yards.
The other thing to note here is that home-field advantage might not be such a great thing for Arizona as fans start to turn on the team and head coach Mike Stoops. About 2000 less people attended last week to see a Top 10 team and the potential No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, Andrew Luck than came for the home opener against Northern Arizona. Attendance could continue to drop as the team struggles.
Lastly, a big, back-breaking issue for the Wildcats - especially from a momentum perspective - is their place kicking. Jaime Salazar missed kicks from 36 and 45 last week and the coaching staff could go back to Alex Sendejas, who crippled the team with awful misses last year.
Any way you cut it, the Wildcats are in bad shape right now and Oregon isn't the cure. They've already lost 37-14 to Oklahoma State and 37-10 to Stanford. We'll lay the points with Oregon in this contest. 10* play.
|09-24-11||Georgia v. Ole Miss UNDER 54.5||Top||27-13||Win||100||50 h 18 m||Show|
Houston Nutt's time as head coach if the Ole Miss Running Rebels is running out. The biggest issue these days is that his smoke and mirrors offenses are producing no points.
JUCO quarterback transfer Zack Stoudt is under center - and he could be replaced shortly - and he's done absolutely nothing. He's passed for 397 yards and two touchdowns in three games. The Rebels scored seven points against Vandy and 13 against BYU. Georgia's defense should be on par or better than Vandy, which means we're not going to see a ton of points.
In any case, it's hard to see Ole Miss scoring a lot any way you cut it. Their strategy has to be to pound the ball, play conservative and keep this game close so they have a shot in the end.
As for Georgia, they are likely going to lean on running back Isaih Crowell to keep things steady on the road. This is an important game for Georgia, so they may be a bit conservative to start out until they have a lead.
Even so, if Georgia reaches the the 30-34 point range, that gives us - and Ole Miss - 17 points to work with to keep this game under. That's more than reasonable given how they've performed, so we're playing the under. 10* play.
|09-18-11||Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3||Top||21-22||Loss||-120||45 h 14 m||Show|
People keep laughing when I tell them that the Washington Redskins are a decent team but I guess they'll have to keep winning to fend off the critics.
Nobody wants to say it out loud, but Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman looked good in their season-opening 28-14 win over the New York Giants, completing 21-of-34 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Beyond that, the Redskins ran the ball effectively enough to keep the dogs off of Grossman's back.
The Cardinals defense coughed up 477 yards of total offense at home to the Carolina Panthers, who were 2-14 last year. Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton did whatever he wanted and there's little reason to believe the Redskins won't do the same as well.
The Cards overall effort was questionable as they used a blown coverage by the Panthers and then awful coverage on a punt return for a touchdown by the Panthers two come from behind in a 28-21 win. They also nearly let the Panthers tie it as they fell short on the one-yard-line as time wore down at the end of the fourth quarter.
Now the Cards have to go on the road on a long East coast trip. They're rarely a good road team in the East time zone and after last week's effort, there's not a whole lot of reason to have faith in them.
We'll stick with the Redskins, laying just a field goal at home. 10* play.
|09-17-11||Wisconsin v. Northern Illinois +18||Top||49-7||Loss||-105||51 h 8 m||Show|
At face value, it would be pretty easy to lay the points with Wisconsin and think nothing of it. They've arguably been the most impressive team in the nation through two weeks but there's a little more to this matchup when you scratch below the surface.
For starters, first-year head coach Dave Doeren was the Badgers defensive coordinator up until this year. The Badgers have a relatively conservative defense and Doeren will know where the holes are.
Secondly, as good as Wisconsin is at Camp Randall, they have a little bit of that Sooner syndrome - as I like to call it - that when you get them off their home field on the road or a neutral site, they are far more vulnerable.
Keep in mind that when you look back at what Wisconsin's done so far, they could be perceived as overrated. The UNLV they smoked in Week 1, Washington State crushed by a wide margin in Week 2. The Oregon State team they beat last week lost to Sacramento State at home in Week 1.
Northern Illinois has an excellent quarterback in Chandler Harnish, who could be playing as good as anyone right now. He's the type of quarterback that's accurate enough to keep the NIU defense on the sidelines and keep moving the chains. The fact that the Badgers top cornerback Devin Smith was lost for the season should only help matters.
The Badgers will likely eventually pound out a win but look for NIU to hang around in this neutral-site affair. 10* play.
|02-06-11||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers OVER 44.5||Top||25-31||Win||100||65 h 39 m||Show|
While the biggest storylines of the last two weeks has really been about the two 3-4 defenses and how they rank No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring, they won't be the story on Super Bowl Sunday.
There are a number of key factors coming into play as to why the over is the play. For starters, both defensive coordinators, Dom Capers and Dick Lebeau, are very familiar with each other - and their schemes - after having worked together in Pittsburgh in the mid-1990's.
With two weeks to prepare, both offenses couldn't have had better preparation than going up against the very units they are going to see on Sunday. Both quarterbacks will have a good idea about the blitzing schemes, characteristics and patterns.
But more importantly than that, the key to this contest going over will be the Green Bay Packers passing the ball. The Steelers do have an elite defense and while their run defense is top-flight (No. 1 overall), their pass defense is mediocre.
The Steelers lack depth at cornerback and the Packers have tons of depth at wide receiver. That's a horrible matchup for Pittsburgh.
Much has been made about the Steelers ability to run versus the Packers No. 18 rush defense but at a closer look, that run defense has been far better of late. The Packers have given up just 209 rushing yards on 59 carries in three playoff games (3.5 yards per carry). Contrary to popular opinion, Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall won't get going - especially with the Steelers offensive line woes.
So this sets up to be a passing games and considering how well the Packers have passed the football indoors, this could be a very high-scoring affair. The Packers have scored more than 40 points in each of their last two indoor playoff games and have averaged over 31 points per game in their last 12 dome games. In that span, Rodgers has 26 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.
The Steelers would have loved this game to be outdoors, in the rain or snow, so that they can muck it up and dictate the pace. Instead, the Packers speed and finesse will dictate the pace of this game, which will lead to plenty of points. Bet the over. 10* play.
|01-23-11||NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 39||Top||19-24||Loss||-110||128 h 1 m||Show|
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets combined for 39 points in the first meeting and were a hair away from adding another touchdown to the total, but there is still plenty of reason to go under in this matchup.
For starters, just the fact that they have squared off once already will allow the defenses to be more prepared for what they have already seen from their opponent's offense.
Any way you cut it, this is a matchup of two excellent defensive teams that are going to takeaway what their opponent does best. On offense, the Jets will continue to do what they've done, which is milk the clock, get first downs and take advantage of any mistakes their opponents give them. Since they are on the road, their goal is to hang around and try to steal the game late.
On defense, the Jets have allowed just 36 points in the last two contests to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady's teams. They are dialed in and playing as good as they have all season long.
The weather may factor with snow expected early in the day and possibly turning to rain. The weather is expected to be 18 Fahrenheit at its warmest.
As long as the Steelers don't give up big kick returns, safeties and field position like they did in the first matchup, this game will be a hard-fought defensive battle and will stay under. 10* play.
|01-23-11||Green Bay Packers -190 v. Chicago Bears||Top||21-14||Win||100||123 h 4 m||Show|
It just feels like destiny, doesn't it? The Green Bay Packers have been the media sweetheart all this week and everyone is just writing them in for a Super Bowl berth.
Unfortunately, this isn't a Disney movie and the games are not played on paper.
When it comes to Sunday's matchup with the Chicago Bears, the Packers have virtually every advantage except for the home field.
While most people wouldn't even argue that the Packers have the better offense, the better offensive line, the better quarterback and the better crop of wide receivers, the Packers are also better on the other side of the ball as well.
Green Bay has the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFC. Their total defense ranks fifth while the Bears are ninth, they've generated the second-most sacks in the NFL with 47 while the Bears have just 34 (17th in NFL) and the Packers have 24 interceptions while the Bears have 21.
The Bears defense excels at stopping the run (2nd overall), which means that the Packers won't have the balance that they have had the last couple of weeks with rookie James Starks taking some pressure off of the passing game, but the Bears pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, which is going to be a problem.
The Packers are a pass-oriented team and their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is red-hot right now with seven touchdowns and no interceptions through his first two playoff games.
On the other side, the Bears offense - specifically Jay Cutler - is just too mistake-prone to trust. They don't run the ball very well and while we know that the Packers can win the game if the burden is put on Rodgers, there is far less confidence in Cutler winning this game on his own. Every week, Bears fans are holding their breath that Cutler won't give the game away.
With home-field advantage helping the Bears, this game might be nip-tuck. If you're uncomfortable betting the moneyline, buy it down to a field goal or 2.5. Either way, the Packers are moving on to the Super Bowl and the Bears are going home. 10* play.
|01-15-11||Green Bay Packers +115 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||48-21||Win||115||125 h 10 m||Show|
The Green Bay Packers will visit the Georgia Dome for the second time this season in just one of four regular season rematches this weekend in the NFL.
The Packers fell short by a field goal in the late-November meeting but this time, the result will be different.
Much has been made about the Atlanta Falcons and their home-field advantage but the New Orleans Saints went into the Georgia Dome in Week 16 and proved to everyone that the Falcons are still very much human at home. Green Bay will do the same.
It's hard not to factor momentum into this contest as the Packers, who had to win out the final two weeks of the regular season, have essentially been playing playoff football since December. Even with Aaron Rodgers shelved in a trip to Gillette Stadium, the Packers gave the Patriots all they could handle, then they stomped the New York Giants at home and topped the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Last week, they were in control the entire way in Philadelphia en route to a 21-16 win.
Most impressive was the fact that they muted Michael Vick, who was expected to be a defensive nightmare. Defense wins championships and the Packers, who held the explosive Eagles to just 16 points, have the NFC's No. 1 scoring defense.
Atlanta may have lost momentum with a Week 16 lost to New Orleans and then a bye week last week. Rust may be in effect.
The Falcons are just 3-3 against the spread versus teams with a winning record, which indicates that they've done a lot of their damage against weak foes this season. The Packers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog and they'll make it 4-1 as they exact some revenge and get another hard-fought road win. 10* play.
|01-10-11||Oregon +110 v. Auburn||Top||19-22||Loss||-100||28 h 25 m||Show|
The Auburn Tigers may have the sexy attractions for the bettors in this game - the No. 1 ranking overall, Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Cam Newton, the SEC pedigree - but the Oregon Ducks are the better football team.
Auburn had a cupcake schedule this season as they only played four true road games this season. To contrast, Oregon had to play at Tennessee, at Arizona State, at USC, at Cal and at Oregon State.
The Ducks have the better defense as well - especially since it had to go through the rigors of the Pac 10, which is the better offensive conference. They have the Pac 10's top-ranked rushing defense and are ranked 15th in the nation against the run. Their scoring defense ranks 12th (18.4 points per game) while Auburn's is 54th (24.7 points per game). The Ducks defense is also among the leaders in the nation in sacks per game with 2.58.
Auburn has displayed a bad tendency to fall behind in some games this season and they've had to ride Newton in a number of big comebacks. But Auburn also hasn't fallen behind to a team like Oregon, which will simply run away with the game if they get any sort of lead.
The Ducks also have an experience edge as they played in the Rose Bowl just last season. For Auburn, this is their first taste of a major bowl game, which is different than anything they've faced.
Oregon is the better team and they'll win this game outright. 10* play.
|01-08-11||New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks +10.5||Top||36-41||Win||100||122 h 26 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints have a cupcake matchup this weekend as they face the first team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record.
But the Saints have only won one road playoff game in their franchise history and that came in the Super Bowl last season.
On top of that, the Saints have issues in their backfield right now as running backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas will miss this game. The Saints have struggled this season when they have been one-dimensional on offense.
The Saints are an indoors team that has to travel to the west to play a game outdoors. Not only that, they are being asked to cover 11 points.
The Saints are just 1-4 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have played better at home than away this season as they have covered five of eight spreads.
New Orleans should win but this game will be closer than the odds makers expect. 10* play.
|01-04-11||Arkansas v. Ohio State -3||Top||26-31||Win||100||18 h 53 m||Show|
The Ohio State Buckeyes have struggled against SEC teams in bowl season (0-9) but this matchup should be a bit different.
For starters, unlikely their last two SEC BCS embarrassments (against Florida and LSU), they are not facing the best team in the conference. Arkansas is still good but clearly, with losses to Alabama and Auburn, they are below the cusp.
Ohio State matches up really well against the Razorbacks. Most SEC teams have stifling run defense but not the Razorbacks. Ohio State lives and dies by the run, which means it's a great news for them that Arkansas gives up just under 160 rushing yards per game.
Secondly, Arkansas is a passing oriented team and they'll be going up against the No. 4 passing defense in the country. Ohio State has only given up seven passing touchdowns this season while picking off 18 passes.
The Buckeyes do struggle against SEC teams but this is one that they should beat. They'll have the better defense on the field and if they'll be able to run, this will be an easy one for them. 10* play.
|01-02-11||St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 41.5||Top||6-16||Win||100||31 h 28 m||Show|
The Seattle Seahawks will host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday night in a winner-takes-the-NFC-West showdown.
Offense should be hard to come by in this one as the Seahawks unit is regularly pathetic but may be without starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Even if he plays, the passing game has been lifeless in recent weeks and the running game has been dormant all season long. The Seahawks rank 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game with just 85.5.
The Seahawks have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while scoring just 15.3 points per game in those seven losses. Even so, they are a team that plays better at home - especially their defense.
The Rams are an indoors team that is traveling west to play outdoors in frigid temperatures. They aren't running the ball particularly well, which is never a good sign when heading out on the road.
Running back Steven Jackson is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season and has never had a 100-yard rushing game against Seattle. In the second half of the season, his yards per carry average is even lower at 3.5.
This has the makings of an ugly defensive struggle. The under is 3-1 in the four games that the Rams have been favored this season and it's 11-5 in their last 16 divisional games.
With Charlie Whitehurst likely starting for a toothless Seahawks team and the Rams taking a young offense on the road outdoors, look for a low-scoring contest in this one. 10* play.
|01-02-11||Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -3||Top||17-34||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
The Jacksonville Jaguars are still playing for a playoff spot in Week 17 but they aren't going to get it. For starters, they need the Indianapolis Colts to lose at home. Secondly, they need to defeat the Houston Texans, which they have already done once this season, but they'll need to do it without their starting backfield.
Both quarterback David Garrard and running back Maurice Jones-Drew will not suit up for this game, which puts the burden on Trent Edwards and Rashad Jennings. The Houston Texans defense is pathetic but it should be able to look a bit better against Edwards, who was cut by the Buffalo Bills earlier this season.
The Texans won't have Andre Johnson at their disposal on Sunday but they still have an explosive offense. They'll have a big edge in their backfield as both Matt Schaub and Arian Foster are Pro Bowl-caliber players (Foster was selected to the 2011 Pro Bowl).
This is also a revenge game where the Texans lost a heartbreaker in Jacksonville on a last-second Hail Mary pass.
With the recent rumors that head coach Gary Kubiak will be back in 2011 with Wade Phillips manning the defense, the Texans can use this game as a springboard for next season. They'll be charged up for this one while the Jags won't be able to match points with them on offense. 10* play.
|01-01-11||Michigan v. Mississippi State -4||Top||14-52||Win||100||25 h 33 m||Show|
The Michigan Wolverines have had a brutal defense all season and it's not going to magically get better for their New Year's Day bowl against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Overall, this is just a matchup of two teams heading in different directions.
Since taking over for Mississippi State, Dan Mullen has guided the Bulldogs in the right direction and they are thrilled to be playing in a big bowl on New Year's Day. The offense has become dangerous and the defense is still rugged, which means the Bulldogs are no longer in the basement of the SEC.
Meanwhile, Michigan looked like they were trending upwards to start the season but that balloon quickly deflated. They finished up the year losing their last two games by a combined score of 85-35. On top of that, head coach Rich Rodriguez had to plead publicly just to keep his job.
It's a matchup of two good offenses but only one team has a defense to speak of: Mississippi State. They have a tough SEC defensive line that will be able to get a few stops while Michigan won't. 10* play.
|01-01-11||Penn State v. Florida -7||Top||24-37||Win||100||24 h 51 m||Show|
Penn State was beaten up a few times by teams that could run the ball, which is bad news considering who they are facing on New Year's Day.
The Nittany Lions have failed several times this season against teams that can run the ball well. Alabama worked them over on the ground in the first half of their meeting, Iowa ran all over them, as did Ohio State and Illinois. In their five losses this season, Penn State gave up an average of 212.2 rushing yards per game.
That's bad news considering the Gators are known as a rushing team.
On top of that, there will be a huge emotional edge for Florida as this will be the final game for head coach Urban Meyer. The players are going to go full boar to send him off well.
Penn State's offense hasn't faced SEC-type speed readily this season and that could lead to a few mistakes from their quarterbacks. This one won't be a close contest. Bet Florida. 10* play.
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