Cappers Sports Picks

308 Green Bay at Seattle

Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight.

PLAY SEATTLE

258 Washington at Tampa Bay

This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. 

Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans

In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense.

New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total.

PLAY OVER

467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle

The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate.

The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. 

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. 

Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

261 Seattle at Detroit

The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late.

Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite.

PLAY SEATTLE

252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London

Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here.

Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team.

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

470 New Orleans at Baltimore

The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host.

PLAY BALTIMORE

276 Kansas City at New England

The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. 

New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season.

I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series.

While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers.

This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number.

PLAY ATLANTA

467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers

While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays.

The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points.

PLAY OAKLAND

466 Miami at Cincinnati

The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range.

Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. 

PLAY CINCINNATI

261 NY Jets at Jacksonville

Extra time to prepare for the Jets who let one slip away Thursday against the Browns. While New York lost that game 21-17 keep in mind it had a -3 turnover disadvantage. So the Jets failed to cover by a single point while turning the ball over three times more than the Browns. New York has outscored the opposition 77-58 despite being -1 in turnover differential and -5 in sacks differential. When looking at successful play percent New York is averaging 47.3% while allowing just 39.7%. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team in this price range. 

Jacksonville is 2-1 on the season with wins over the Giants and Patriots. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league. The defense has been stout as always but the offense has been a disappointment. 

The Jets have won 20 games combined the last three seasons, but are a perfect 2-0 against the Jags. Winning last year as a 3 1/2 point underdog in overtime, and in 2015 28-23. Jacksonville has played three disappointing teams this season, the Jets have a better future than any of them.

PLAY NY JETS

264 Tampa Bay at Chicago

The Bucs continue to put points on the board, but is this team a bit overrated because of that offensive success? Keep in mind Tampa Bay is traveling on a short week after the supposed statement game Monday night against the Steelers. The defense has allowed 91 points to three teams that have not met preseason expectations. The Bucs have permitted an average of 54.3% successful plays, so what the offense produces the defense more than surrenders.

The Bears are 2-1 on the season with the lone loss being the opening week fold job against the Packers. The Chicago defense has been nothing but outstanding thus far. Allowing just 18.3 points per game and holding the opposition to just 39% successful plays. Mitch Trubisky is catching a lot of flak, but the teams offense isn’t bad at all. Much better defense gets the cover here.

PLAY CHICAGO

255 Cincinnati at Atlanta

Really like the way these Bengals have started the season. Cincinnati has won the early down success rate in all three games, 79-54%, 79-68% and 84-74% last week. When looking at play success rate this team has produced 52.7% offensively, while allowing 50.3%. 

The Falcons are just 12-20 ATS as a home favorite going back to the 2012 season. This home field edge isn’t nearly as big as you were led to believe. Despite playing 2 of 3 games at home this year, the Falcons are permitting 50.7% of opponent plays to be successful, while producing just 47.7%. This is the third straight home game for the Falcons, which usually results in a higher scoring game. That said we prefer the visitor in this matchup better.

PLAY CINCINNATI  

102 Minnesota at LA Rams

Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason.

The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. 

This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback.

PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS

484 Chicago at Arizona

The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. 

Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap.

PLAY ARIZONA

473 Oakland at Miami

Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008.

PLAY OAKLAND

302 NY Jets at Cleveland

The Jets took advantage of a tell from Matt Stafford in the opener and won big on Monday Night Football. Then on a short week had to host a division rival and didn’t have the same success against the Dolphins. Now on another short week the team travels to Cleveland. 

The Browns remain winless but managed to cover both games, against far tougher opponents than the Jets have faced. To hold the Steelers and Saints to 21 points each in a total of nine quarters is impressive. The short week will expose the Jets rookie QB, as no additional plays will be able to be added to the playbook. This gives the Cleveland defense plenty of chances to force turnovers, which it has in abundance the first two games.

PLAY CLEVELAND

281 Detroit at San Francisco

Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. 

San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. 

PLAY DETROIT

263 Carolina at Atlanta

The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years.

Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high.

PLAY CAROLINA

273 Miami at NY Jets

Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.

The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. 

PLAY MIAMI

265 Minnesota at Green Bay

We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. 

Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears.

PLAY MINNESOTA

460 Buffalo at Baltimore

Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season.

The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one.

PLAY BALTIMORE

456 San Francisco at Minnesota

No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back.

Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early.

PLAY MINNESOTA

101 Philadelphia & New England in Minnesota

The Patriots haven’t had great success winning Super Bowl’s by margins. That looks to be something that holds true here. A lot of the reason for the Patriot’s success over the last two decades is playing in the worst division in football. If New England takes care of business against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it can very easily get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. When having to go on the road and win in the postseason the Pats are simply not the same team.

Philadelphia has the best unit on the field, its defense. And the offense can move the ball on a Pats defense that is rather weak considering the level of competition it played this season. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Here are five props we played in the offshore market at the same well known sports book. We could give you a ton of worthy plays in Las Vegas, but since most don’t live here it would be a waste of our time.

1st Score TD -158

Total FG Under 3.5 -135

Total FG Under 4.5 -325

No Safety -1058

Winning margin exactly 3 No -437

As I mentioned, you can get these and others at much better prices if you are in Vegas. If so, shop around. 

313 Minnesota at Philadelphia

Better get this one up now before any more money comes in on the host. Simply put we want no part of a dome team playing on the road outside in the playoffs. It’s been a terrible situation historically and we saw it again last week with Atlanta. Home field means so much in this matchup, and to catch the host as an underdog is a no brainer. Foles has a history of being a productive quarterback over the years and his short sample size this season has given us strong line value.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. 

Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

302 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Too much is being made about the quarterback advantage for the Falcons here. It’s just one position on the field and it’s getting too much play in this line. The best unit on the field is the Philadelphia defense. The Eagles are also playing at home off a bye week. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside in cold weather on a strong home field for the host. While Ryan wins the QB battle, the Eagles win the game.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

102 Tennessee at Kansas City

We want no part of the Titans today playing on the road. There were two teams in the playoffs that were outscored in the regular season, Buffalo and Tennessee. Mariota has been a turnover machine, especially on the road.

Kansas City doesn’t turn the ball over and wins with defense and running the ball. Smith has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season by quarterback rating. He’s been able to extend the field by throwing longer passes this season. This line is being held down somewhat by the Chiefs prior playoff failures. While that may be the case in following weeks it’s not going to prevent KC in this matchup.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

128 Seattle at Dallas

The Seahawks have scored a combined 17 first half points over the last four games. They continually play from behind because the defense is battered and bruised. It’s just not the same healthy defense that has been so dominant the past few seasons. The loss to the Rams last week was totally embarrassment, which you would expect a rebound from. But keep in mind that this is a team that entered the season expecting to go deep into the playoffs. Now it’s virtually shutout of the postseason. What type of effort will the players give knowing it has nothing to play for.

Dallas gets Zeke back today and other than a quarterback he’s the most valuable skill position player in the league. In his last six games before the suspension the Boys scored 28, 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points. With him out of the lineup Dallas averaged 18.3 ppg. The defense has held the opposition to 17, 10 and 14 points the past three weeks. This is a cheap number for the Cowboys.

PLAY DALLAS

306 LA Chargers at Kansas City

The Chargers have dropped seven straight games to Kansas City, yet are now a slight favorite on the road. While this team has won 7 of 9 games, those wins came against questionable opposition. Victories against the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Browns and Redskins. Very likely all teams that will not make the playoffs. 

Kansas City on the other hand has beaten the likes of the Patriots, Eagles and these very same Chargers by a score of 24-10 on the road. The better team at home in a basically pick ‘em game? Sign us up.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

114 Oakland at Kansas City

Despite winning 3 of its last 4 games we aren’t buying into the Raiders who enter this contest having played the easiest schedule in the league. Wins over the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins aren’t much to write home about. The last time these two met was a Thursday Night Football win for the Raiders at home 31-30. The host on these early week games has a sizable advantage so once again we found the Raiders in a favorable position.

Now with Kansas City entering this game having lost 6 of 7, we get to back the better team with the far better coach at a discount. With three straight home games for the Chiefs Kansas City can take advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

130 Dallas at NY Giants

Dallas beat the Giants 19-3 in the season opener, but the Cowboys have faded badly since. The offense has really been affected with the suspension on Elliott, and his absence has hurt the overall productivity of Prescott. Keep in mind heading into last week this team had scored 6, 9 and 7 points, and is now a road favorite.

Make no mistake the Giants are not a good football team, but the coaching change can’t do anything but help. The players didn’t respect McAdoo and really were against the Manning benching a week ago. With Philadelphia on deck we really expect the players to exceed expectations in this game. 

PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS

102 New Orleans at Atlanta

The last four years the team that won the first game of this series also won the second game. This should be easy. Until you realize there are only four weeks left in the season and these two have yet to meet this year. A strange scheduling situation indeed. 

The Saints have been terrific this year and just knocked off Carolina for the season sweep. New Orleans has won 9 of 10 games heading into this matchup. But the short week does bring some problems even though the trip is short to Atlanta. The Saints now have a virtual two game lead on second place Carolina after winning the tie breaker. New Orleans still has the Jets and Bucs on the schedule, so beating Atlanta here isn’t a priority.

The Falcons on the other hand trail the Saints by two full games, and a loss here would be devastating if a division title is the goal. Even for a wild card this is a game Atlanta has to have. Off a home loss to Minnesota we are catching the host with more on the line here. This is also the third straight home game for the Falcons. With Seattle at 8-4 and Carolina also 8-4, this team simply cannot fall to 7-6 and make the postseason. It’s all in for the host and we will join them.

PLAY ATLANTA

359 Denver at Miami

Now that the quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Trevor Siemian, we will look to back a Broncos team which has hit rock bottom. It’s now clear that the Broncos have the best chance to win behind this quarterback. He performed well this year when his surrounding players were healthy. That’s the case again here as Denver has finally gotten key pieces back in the lineup. 

Miami continues to struggle offensively while making mediocre offenses look good. Carolina with 45, Oakland with 27, the Jets with 28, Tampa Bay with 30 and Baltimore with 40 just in the past few weeks. Miami has virtually no home field advantage. We will back the Broncos here who still have the best unit on the field, the Denver defense.

PLAY DENVER

368 Kansas City at NY Jets

The Chiefs are in a freewill losing 5 of 6 with offensive outputs of 10, 9 and 17 the past three games. Opponents are stuffing the run and making Smith throw the ball long, a terrific strategy. KC has dropped three straight on the road to the struggling Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. 

Todd Bowles has gotten more out of his team this year than anyone in the league. This team gives full effort every time out, losing just once all season by double digits way back in week two. New York outplayed Carolina last week and couldn’t get the victory. We expect a better result out of the Jets here, who haven’t left the city since November 12th.

PLAY NY JETS

257 Buffalo at Kansas City

The Bills players and organization embarrassed themselves last week by putting in a rookie quarterback to start the game. The past three games the Bills refused to give themselves any chance by turning the ball over. Now with the rightful QB back behind center Buffalo has a chance to get back to its drive to make the playoffs. Keep in mind last week Buffalo was +7 with a rookie QB, now the line is higher with Taylor behind center. The Chargers are playing better ball than the Chiefs, yet the line is higher.

Kansas City has lost 4 of its last 5 games with the only victory coming against a Denver team riding what is now a 6 game losing streak. The last four games KC has played the NY Giants, the Cowboys, the Broncos and the Raiders. Every one of those teams have been playing terrible ball. Can’t trust the Chiefs in this price range.

PLAY BUFFALO

261 Carolina at NY Jets

Both teams enter off a bye week but we would much rather back the more talented Panthers squad here. Carolina has three losses on the season, losing to New Orleans and Philadelphia along the way. Carolina has beaten New England and Atlanta. 

The Jets were a major surprise out of the gate winning 3 of 5, but has since dropped 4 of 5. The only good team the Jets beat all season was Jacksonville in overtime. Only once all season has this team surpassed 28 points in a game. The Jets have an extremely tough schedule from here on out. We may have seen the last Jets win this season.

PLAY CAROLINA

273 New England at Denver

Pats defense has held the opposition to 13, 7, 17 and 14 points the past four games. That’s a stark contrast to what the Pats did to begin the season. The bye week should only improve the situation. 

Denver on the other hand have been outscored by 28, 10, 21 and 13 points the last four games. The defense which was so good early is starting to collapse of the weight of carrying this offense. The last three games Denver has produced 3.9, 3.5 and 3.5 first half yards per play. The scoring unit isn’t giving the defense a chance.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

251 Minnesota at Washington

Vikings off a bye after returning from London with a 33-17 win over the Browns. This is actually just the third true road game for Minnesota this year after splitting at Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Vikings have held all but one opponent this season to under 20 points, and this Washington offensive line is banged up. 

The Skins were outgained by 200 yards in last weeks stunner in Seattle. We don’t trust the Skins to be that fortunate this week against the Likes. 

PLAY MINNESOTA

255 Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

Over the last three years the Steelers have beaten the Colts by an average of 24 points per game. Coming in off a bye we see this Steelers offense exploding against the worst defense in football. While many are disappointed with this Pittsburgh offense, keep in mind this team has yet to have a first half drive starting in opponent territory. 

Indy coming off shocker at Houston that had more to do with Tom Savage than anything the Colts accomplished. 

PLAY PITTSBURGH

265 Cleveland at Detroit

Not only are the Browns winless on the season which provides value. But the team is off a bye week while Detroit beat divisional rival Green Bay on Monday Night Football. There likely won’t be a better spot to back the Browns all season. Cleveland has been competitive in 3 of the last 4 games, and actually had a halftime lead against Minnesota.

Detroit has this game sandwiched around divisional rivals, in fact, after playing Green Bay last week they face Chicago and Minnesota the next two weeks. The Lions biggest favorite role this season was -2 hosting Carolina. We look for Detroit to try to  get off the field without injuries and move on to more important games.

PLAY CLEVELAND

469 Kansas City at Dallas

The Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in all but one game this season. This is a team that can attack in various ways and should find success against this Dallas defense. 

Dallas has scored 28 points or more now in five straight games. Elliott and company should have a field day running on this Chiefs defense which has struggled against the run all season. 

PLAY OVER

273 Denver at Kansas City

Broncos have dropped three straight in this series and like the Chiefs enter this contest off back to back losses. The last six visits to Arrowhead saw Denver either a favorite or a 4 or less point underdog. Being a dog of this magnitude here is rare. On the season Denver has a +8 explosive play mark, while the Chiefs are at a -8.

This game is more important for the Broncos who are 3-3 on the year with Philadelphia and New England on deck.

KC sits at 5-2 with Dallas and a bye on deck. Much has been made about the Kansas City home field advantage, but the Chiefs are only 18-29-1 ATS here as a home favorite the past decade. 

PLAY DENVER

268 Houston at Seattle

The Texans have feasted on poor defensive teams as of late. Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee and New England. In those games the Texans put up 33 points or better against every opponent. Now the team really takes a step up to play an improving Seahawk stop unit.

This Seattle defense has held all but one opponent this year to 18 points or less. Seattle enters this game having won 4 of 5 and the offense is starting to show some signs.

This is a very tough place to play, especially with a rookie quarterback. After facing easy defenses we expect Watson and company to really struggle here on Sunday.

PLAY SEATTLE

466 New Orleans at Green Bay

The Saints haven’t played a true road game in a month. Traditionally this dome team is far better at home than on the road playing outside. New Orleans is on a 3-8 spread run as road favorites. Coming off a 52 point scoring game the Saints enter this contest fat and sassy.

Green Bay is the home dog here because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers. But the drop-off isn’t as big as many would expect. The backup has been in the system for a couple years and has looked terrific when getting time in the preseason. Coming off the bench rusty last week is not the same as having a full week of practice with the starters. The Packers are on a 22-5 run straight up in Lambeau Field. It continues on Sunday.

PLAY GREEN BAY

454 Buffalo at Cincinnati

While the Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season, this isn’t what we would consider a playoff team. It’s losing the explosive play battle, and has gone three straight games losing the first half yards per play numbers. 

Cincinnati has been much more explosive offensively since the offensive coordinator change. It has a positive explosive play edge on the season, to go along with three straight games of winning the first half yards per play. One team has been fortunate while the other is on the rise.

PLAY CINCINNATI

303 New England at Tampa Bay

The Patriots have been involved in 41 explosive plays in only four games. Offensively 21 produced and defensively 19 allowed. Against good defensive teams such as Kansas City, Houston and Carolina, Patriots games produced 69, 69 and 63 points. 

Tampa Bay is coming off three games against good defensive squads in Chicago, Minnesota and the NY Giants. The Bucs should have a field day against this Pats defense, just like the struggling Panthers did on Sunday.

With the short week and this being a non-conference game it will be tough for the defenses to game plan.  

PLAY OVER

272 Philadelphia at LA Chargers

The Eagles sit at 2-1 on the season after using a 61 yard field goal to beat divisional rival New York. With four straight NFC opponents on deck including Thursday Night and Monday Night matchups, we can see the Eagles looking past the winless Chargers here.

This is the third straight home game for the Chargers, and a must win game after an 0-3 start. LA is a much better team than what it has shown thus far, and it should match up well here with an Eagle defense missing key players.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

255 LA Rams at Dallas

The Rams offense has produced 46, 20 and 41 points this season. The offense is balanced and Goff looks to be much better than a year ago. We have concerns about the Dallas defense and its best player Lee is a game time decision. 

The Cowboys are at its best when running the football. and Elliott and company should have a field day against this weak LA rush defense.

PLAY OVER

263 Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Bengals changed its OC before last week and had its best offensive game this season. With Cleveland missing at least three keys on defense this week we look for the Bengals to score at will.

The Browns on the other hand are third in the league in offensive explosive plays, and this Cincinnati defense isn’t anything special.

PLAY OVER

490 Dallas at Arizona

The sharp money is showing on the home dog here and for good reason. In looking back after the first part of the season, we can start to make judgements on each team. 

Dallas started the year with an impressive 19-3 win at home over the Giants, but we have now seen NY go winless thus far. Dallas was crushed 42-17 at Denver. The same Broncos team that lost at Buffalo yesterday. In those two games the Cowboys have an explosive play edge of just 5 to 4.

Arizona played two road games at Detroit and Indianapolis. The Lions were one yard short of starting the season 3-0. And the Colts look like a much better team after that crushing loss to the Rams. On the season Arizona has an 11 to 3 explosive play advantage. Under Bruce Arians the Cards are 4-2 as a home underdog but haven’t been in that role since 2014. With the fired up MNF crowd we will back the Cardinals.

PLAY ARIZONA

474 New Orleans at Carolina

The Saints have combined to score 29 points against the Vikings and Patriots. It’s become clear that in order to keep the poor New Orleans defense off the field Sean Payton will need to run the football. 

Cam Newton is clearly not back healthy from his offseason surgery. The last thing Ron Rivera wants to do is put his franchise QB at risk by throwing the football. The Panthers have scored just 32 combined points against Buffalo and San Francisco. The Carolina defense on the other hand has permitted just 6 total points on the season. 

PLAY UNDER

477 Atlanta at Detroit 

Easy call here for the over. Atlanta averaged 33.8 points per game a year ago and have put up 57 combined points in its first two games. 

Detroit put up 35 and 24 against two pretty good stop units in the Cards and Giants. This will actually be the first decent offense the Lions have faced as both Arizona and New York have major offensive problems right now. 

PLAY OVER

479 NY Giants at Philadelphia

This is a must win game for the Giants. No doubt about it. An 11 win team a year ago will be 0-3 to start the season and almost assuredly out of the playoffs with a loss here. The injured are slowly coming back and the motivation is clearly with the visitor. Before last week the Giants would have been a 3 point dog here, but after losing on national tv Monday night the line has taken off. You will not go broke betting on MNF losers the following week.

Philadelphia is a good team but not this good. After back to back road games it faces the Giants here in its lone home game in the first four weeks. Strictly a value play here. Hold your nose and bet the inflated priced dod in a do or die game.

PLAY NY GIANTS

301 LA Rams at San Francisco

Not many teams find themselves in the position the Rams will this week. That would be playing with triple revenge against the 49ers. That’s right the Rams have lost to San Francisco by scores of 22-21, 28-0 and 19-16 in OT the past three meetings. What that does is make the Rams fired up to play the Niners, something most teams lack. Coming off a home loss to the Redskins we can see the Rams playing its best game of the season here. Despite a 1-1 record the Rams have a +5 explosive play advantage after two games. The offense has put up 66 points so far, and the Niners just don’t have that type of offense to keep up. 

Now before you start talking about the improvement of the 49ers defense, take a look at who the team played. Carolina with Cam Newton coming back from a serious injury and the Seahawks who have no offensive line. While those are both high quality defenses the Niners scored 12 total points and created just two total explosive plays offensively. 

The line is currently exactly what it was last year when these two met in Levi’s Stadium. The Rams are the more improved team since that meeting.

PLAY LA RAMS

274 Minnesota at Pittsburgh

Solid scheduling edge here for the host. Minnesota is on a short week after looking very good against the Saints Monday night at home. After this contest Minnesota has two more home games against possible NFC playoff squads Tampa Bay and Detroit. In fact, this road game at an AFC opponent is followed by four NFC battles including division rivals Detroit, Chicago on MNF and Green Bay. So this is by far the least important game for the Vikings in quite a while. We also get to fade a team that looked impressive in front of a MNF audience. 

Pittsburgh on the other hand is home for the only time in the first month of the season. The next two weeks the Steelers travel to Chicago and Baltimore. With only NFC entrant the Bears on deck, there is no lookahead for the host. The last three years have seen the Steelers going 7-1-1 ATS its first three home games of the season. This is a club who hasn’t had a single losing season overall in over a decade. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a Minnesota team with less preparation time.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

481 LA Chargers at Denver

The Chargers have been an afterthought in the minds of the public and the betting markets. After 5 and 4 win seasons the team was moved to a new city. To make matters worse the clubs home games are going to be played in a soccer field for the time being. If there is anyone who should be profitable on the road this season it will be these Chargers. This has been the role the Chargers have excelled in for years. 28-17-2 the past nine years in the road dog role, including a combined 9-5 ATS in the last two seasons. 

Denver has an excellent home field advantage when the team wins 9 or more games. In those years over the last decade the Broncos are 23-15-1 ATS. When winning 8 or less Denver is 12-26-2 ATS. This Bronco team is expected to be an 8 win team, so we can expect more of a poor home spread mark. 

The offense is putting the QB in more of a shotgun formation, which originally was designed for the former Memphis QB. Not for Trevor Siemian, who was expected to be the backup. But the injury to Lynch has put Siemian in a spot in which he has never performed well, in the shotgun. We take advantage of that opening night. 

PLAY LA CHARGERS

474 Seattle at Green Bay

With the total expected to be a shootout we will side with the under in this battle of elite NFC squads. When looking at key positional matchups the defenses have a solid advantage in this contest. And with the current line we are able to grab that key number of 51. The week one NFL lines have been out for some time, so most have been pounded into place. This is one that still provides solid betting value.

PLAY UNDER

312 Green Bay at Atlanta

The Packers have been red hot riding the smoking gun of Aaron Rodgers, and he will have success against this middling Atlanta defense. That said, this Falcons offense is one of the best we have seen in the NFL for many years. Not only can Atlanta run the football successfully, Matt Ryan is having an MVP season as well. 

The Packers have been in a must win situation for weeks now, while the Falcons had the division won for a while. Atlanta is the fresher team having had a bye week and really didn’t have to extend itself the last couple weeks of the season.

PLAY ATLANTA

311 Green Bay at Atlanta

Not impressed with either defense here, and with Atlanta having the fourth best first half offense in the history of the NFL, we expect the Packers to throw the ball a lot. Atlanta gets off to great starts and we expect the same here today at home. The Packers don’t have much of a running game and Rodgers has taken control of the offense with great success as of late. The line is high for a reason and the game is being played in a dome. Look for a shootout as these two easily surpass this high total.

PLAY OVER

305 Pittsburgh at Kansas City

While the Pittsburgh defense has gotten better as the season has gone on, keep in mind the weak offensive teams the Steelers faced on its schedule. Just in division Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore struggled putting points on the board. 

Kansas City doesn’t throw the ball long but the receivers are able to turn short passes into large gains. The Chiefs have been among the leaders in explosive plays out of the passing game. With the total dropping on this contest we feel it’s time to jump on the over as we see both teams having success. Pittsburgh in the running game and the Chiefs through the air.

PLAY OVER

308 Green Bay at Dallas

The first time these two played all the talk was about the Cowboys running game against the Packers run defense. Dallas won that battle and we expect more of the same here. Dallas has multiple offensive weapons while the Packers will be playing shorthanded at receiver without Jordy Nelson. We trust the Dallas defense over the Packers, and the extra week of rest should be a big advantage for the host.

PLAY DALLAS

320 Cleveland at Pittsburgh

The Browns celebrated as if it won the Super Bowl last week when it upset the Chargers at home. That marked the first win of the season for Cleveland and got the huge monkey of its back. Because of that relieved pressure we can’t see this team looking forward to taking on the physical Steelers with vacation time on deck.

Pittsburgh is resting many key starters but the winning philosophy will not change for the host. Pittsburgh is a winning organization from ownership on down, while the Browns are the complete opposite. 

This line moved 12 points from the lookahead because of the Steelers clinching playoff position. That’s simply too much of a move with the Pittsburgh backups being just as good as these Browns starters. Cheap line for the Steelers here who enter the playoffs with a double digit victory.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

117 San Diego at Cleveland

Once again the wise guys have shown up to back the Browns. How’s that worked out for them this season? I admit that I had backed Cleveland on occasion and I still have the betting tickets to prove it. But now that the line has dropped this week we can come in on the Chargers.

We are well aware that its a poor spot for San Diego, traveling across the country to play an early game. But the Browns have not shown up against teams in bad spots all season. Nobody wants to be known as the team that lost to the Browns, so we feel the Chargers will be well prepared.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

305 Tampa Bay at Dallas

Can’t buck the red hot Bucs here catching a full touchdown. Five straight wins allowing a total of 64 total points., that includes likely playoff foes Kansas City and Seattle. Tampa Bay was won the turnover battle in 8 of 9 games and has held its own in the trenches.

Dallas continues to play excellent defense but the offensive side of the ball has struggled as of late. Just 24 total points the last two weeks when facing improving defenses. In a low scoring contest the points are at a premium.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

320 Jacksonville at Houston

Money continues to flow in on the Jaguars who have covered just twice in the last eight games. In the last nine contests the Jags haven’t produced more than 22 points in any game. While the opposition has been quality the lack of offense really puts this team behind the eight ball. Jacksonville has only won the turnover battle twice all season and are a negative 17 in turnover differential on the season. 

Houston has won the last five meetings between these two, with four of those games decided by 6 points or more. In a low scoring matchup we prefer the Texans who are still in the drivers seat for the divisional crown.

PLAY HOUSTON

107 San Diego at Carolina

Chargers are +13 explosive plays on the season and +5 over the last month compared to Carolina. The Chargers have played with heart all season with a respectable 2-4 spread mark when losing the turnover battle, Carolina is 1-6 ATS. 

Carolina went to the Super Bowl last year winning 15 of 16 during the regular season. Now out of the playoffs off an embarrassing 40-7 loss on National Television against Seattle last Sunday. The Panthers laid down in that game and we expect more of the same here. Carolina has played four straight games decided by a field goal before last week. The dam has finally broke.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

112 Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Bengals have won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games the last four seasons. Right now Cincinnati sits at 4-7-1 on the season. Coming off its best all-around game of the year and with hated rival Pittsburgh on deck, do you really think this team is worried about the winless Browns? Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland by margins of 14, 34 and 21 points the past two seasons. 

Cleveland is 0-12 and coming off its bye week. You will never find a team more motivated than a winless team off a bye. RGIII is expected to start for the Browns on Sunday, but regardless of the quarterback the team needs to do a better job of keeping the QB upright. The good news is that Cincinnati isn’t overly strong in the trenches and Cleveland has a chance to keep this competitive. The Browns have two covers on the year against Miami and Tennessee, two teams very similar to the Bengals. We expect Cleveland to take this one to the wire!

PLAY CLEVELAND

120 Minnesota at Jacksonville

The Vikings have lost four straight road games by margins of 3, 6, 10 and 11 points. The team has scored over 20 points just once in the last two months. 

Jacksonville owns a season long explosive play advantage over Minnesota by 10 and by 4 over the last month. This game features the biggest turnover discrepancy in the entire league. Minnesota is +13 on the year and the Jags are -18. That’s a whopping 31 turnover differential between these two clubs. While interceptions are not a random occurrence, fumbles are. So we should see some regression in those turnover stats. The Jags have played some similar offensive squads this season and held them in check defensively. Denver 20, Houston 24, Kansas City 19, Chicago 16 and Baltimore 19. We look for a low scoring affair with the Jags surprising the Vikings.

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

375 Carolina at Seattle

So much of what we have read and heard about this game is playoff revenge for Seattle. The Seahawks are getting healthier and now the players can’t wait to avenge the loss to the Panthers. But keep in mind Carolina was played Seattle better than anyone the past few seasons. Not only did Carolina win at home 31-24 in the playoffs, it won 27-23 in Seattle in the regular season. The teams played each of the three previous seasons with final margins of 4, 5 and 4 points. So just because Seattle has revenge does not mean this team can cover a spread in this range. 

On the season these two are equal in explosive plays breaking exactly even on the season. Over the last month Carolina has a +3 explosive play advantage. Since its bye week on October 9th Seattle has played seven games. In those games Seattle has scored 145 points and surrendered 133. The Seahawks were + 6 in turnovers in those games and favored in all but two. This team just isn’t as good as previous editions and Seattle continues to be an overrated squad. We went against Seattle last week vs the Bucs, we do the same here.

PLAY CAROLINA

371 Washington at Arizona

It’s not often that you get the clearly better team catching points. But that’s the case here as the betting public has been very slow to react to how poorly this Arizona team has played this year. On the season when looking at explosive plays Washington is +10 while Arizona is +2. Over the last month these teams are exactly equal. Washington is playing its second of three straight road games, and this is a divisional sandwich. The Redskins will also be without key receiver Reed on Sunday. Those are two big negatives, but not enough to keep us off the Skins here. In the last ten games Washington has lost just three games in regulation, twice to first place Dallas by margins of 4 and 5 points, and at first place Detroit by 3. This team is in every game it plays, and is a solid 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. Simply put this team gives it all every week.

The same cannot be said about the Cardinals who had much higher expectations coming into the season. Arizona is 0-5 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also 0-4 on the year as an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less. Those stats are a clear indication of a lack of heart. In a game where the likely outcome is the team that wins gets the cover, who do you trust?

PLAY WASHINGTON

In the afternoon starts we have isolated a game in which we feel we have a sizable advantage that hasn't been counted on in the betting line. In fact, we feel we have two teams going in opposite directions. Join us on Sunday as we extend our 23-11 and 93-57 overall winning runs. 

355 Houston at Green Bay

We haven’t been a fan of the Texans at all this season, but you can’t help but like Houston here. Sure the offense has struggled all season but this defense continues to play outstanding football. Only once all season has this club permitted more than 27 points and it that game the yards per played allowed was just 5.1. Houston has been very unlucky in turnovers this year with a -9 margin right now. Osweiller has been a terrible signing, just like we said before the season started. But this defense is why we like the Texans here.

Green Bay just played three straight games on the road and 4 of its last 5 contests. That can take a lot out of a team, especially one playing on a short week. The Packers have one less game to prepare coming off the MNF win over Philadelphia. The lookahead like coming into that game was Green Bay by 4, now because of the win the Packers are laying a much higher number. We weren’t overly impressed by the Packers Monday night, more disappointed in the Eagles who have now lost 4 of 5. Plenty of value here on the Texans as this line is simply too inflated.

PLAY HOUSTON

268 Seattle at Tampa Bay

Really tough scheduling spot here for the Seahawks. Off Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo on Monday Night Football. With Carolina on Sunday Night Football, Green Bay, Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and Arizona on Christmas Eve ahead. This is by far the least important game for Seattle until the final week of the season at San Francisco.

The Seahawks are really beat up defensively this week and we can easily see the team using bench players on Sunday. Tampa Bay on the other hand are as healthy as the team has been all season. Tampa Bay is on a 4-2 straight up run with one of the losses coming in overtime to Oakland. Tampa struggled early but this is is underrated right now. Plenty of value on the home dog.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

108 Minnesota at Detroit

The Vikings are 6-4 ATS on the season which is good, but this team has yet to lose a turnover battle in any game. With that type of turnover luck you would assume a much better spread mark than what the Vikings have achieved. The Minnesota offense has been the problem, especially in the first half of games. The Vikings have lost the first half yards per play battle in five straight games by margins of 0.7, 0.4, 1.5, 5.2 and 0.4. The offensive line problems have also come into play lately with a -11 margin in those five games since the bye week.

Detroit counters with a 5-4-1 spread record with a +2 turnover advantage on the season. The Lions defense is peaking allowing 19, 16, 20 and 17 points the past four games. Detroit owns a +8 explosive play advantage in this matchup as well. 

The home teams in these early week games have an advantage, and Detroit by the numbers is the slightly better team. Therefore laying less than a touchdown here to a team that needs turnovers to compete is the way to go.

PLAY DETROIT

475 Houston & Oakland in Mexico City

While Oakland is coming off a bye we’re not sure thats a positive for the Raiders. The team is riding a three game winning streak and feeling good about itself. The local fans are patting the team on the back and the playoffs are in range for the first time in years. Upon closer inspection we find that the Raiders are 1-8 on the season in yards per play. The team has been very fortunate in turnovers, which is a major reason for its success. This is also the largest spread of the season in Raiders games, as every other contest Oakland was either favored by 4 or less or an underdog. 

Houston had a bye just two weeks ago before beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville, so the rest factor is nonexistent. The Texans have already played the likes of New England, Minnesota and Denver away from home, so its battle tested. While Oakland has been fortunate with turnovers the Texas have not, at -5 on the season. The Texans are 3-4-2 on the year when breaking down yards per play. With the 14 turnover advantage for the Raiders here we expect that number to normalize. Houston does have a +6 explosive play advantage over Oakland which helps if the Texans fall behind. We feel this line is 2 1/2 to 3 points too high, and the location would hinder the team coming off a bye and feeling fat and sassy.

PLAY HOUSTON

451 Tennessee at Indianapolis

The Colts have beaten the Titans ten straight times heading into this contest including a 34-26 win in Tennessee back in October. But we expect that dominance to come to an end on Sunday. Indy should come out of the bye fat and happy after pounding the Packers on the road. But this team has only won twice all season in yards per play as the 4-5 record is a bit misleading. The major problem for the Colts is poor line play. When looking at team sacks Indy is -16 on the season, including -11 the past six games. If you can’t control the lines you better have the ability to create explosive plays. But that’s another sore spot for the Colts as Indy is -16 in explosive plays on the season.

Tennessee on the other hand is +15 on the year, a whopping 31 explosive play advantage over Indy. While Tennessee is 5-5 on the year, it is 6-3-1 in yards per play. So while the Colts are not as good as its record the Titans are actually better. Getting the points with the better team here is just too good to pass up as we expect Tennessee to win going away.

PLAY TENNESSEE

457 Chicago at New York Giants

In a battle of two mistake prone quarterbacks we will gladly take the inflated number with the Bears. Chicago has a -5 deficit in turnovers on the season but the Giants at -8 are even worse. The Bears are 4-4-1 in yards per play, it’s been the turnovers which have killed this team all year. Now facing another turnover machine in Eli Manning the Bears have a real shot at the outright win here.

New York is 5-3-1 in yards per play but are at a -10 disadvantage in explosive plays vs Chicago. Playing on a short week after a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati, we can see the Giants coming into this contest overconfident. After facing Los Angeles in London and beating divisional rival Philadelphia, followed by the MNF contest, it’s easy to see NY struggling for motivation here.

PLAY CHICAGO

309 New Orleans at Carolina

Major concerns here for a Panthers team who is off a devastating loss to the Chiefs. After blowing a 17-0 lead its hard to imagine that there is much left in the tank for this team who went 15-1 last season and played in the Super Bowl. The Panthers have been turnover prone and Cam Newton has really struggled under pressure all season. The team lately has really struggled with penalties having 18 more than the opposition the past four games. That stat is a sign the concentration level has faded for this club with higher expectations.

The Saints found its own way to lose a game in the final seconds last week against the Broncos. But the main reason was a -2 turnover differential. The Saints had five sacks more than the Broncos which doesn’t fare well for the Panthers squad having troubles protecting the quarterback. While the defense is always a concern the Saints offense has been extremely potent this season. Even in the Carolina 15-1 season from a year ago the Saints were very competitive losing by only 3 and 5 points. We look for New Orleans to get over that hump here.

PLAY NEW ORLEANS

271 Dallas at Pittsburgh

This is a classic case of perception winning out over reality. Just lay out the season long statistics of these two teams and take away the team names, then tell me who should be favored here. 

One team has won 7 straight games, winning 6 of those in yards per play. That club has only lost the turnover battle once all year and is +6 in sacks on the season. That team has produced a league high +21 explosive play margin.

Team two sits at 4-4 on the year and enters on a three game losing streak. That team is 2-4-1 in yards per play this season and is -2 in turnover margin. The team is also a balanced 0 in explosive plays, allowing the same amount as it obtained itself. 

By now you recognize that the team with the far better production is the road underdog Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers simply are not playing well enough to trust here against what could be the NFC Super Bowl representative. Losses to Miami and Baltimore as of late cannot be excused.

PLAY DALLAS

262 Minnesota at Washington

The Vikings are not a team that is built to come back from deficits. The last three weeks Minnesota has scored 3 points by the half in each game. That was against Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit. The offense produced a season high of 5.3 yards per play earlier this year against the Giants, which tells you how much this team struggles. If it wasn’t for a +12 turnover margin we would be talking about this team as one of the dregs of the league. 

In explosive plays Washington owns a +15 advantage over these Vikings. The offense has produced 16 points or more in every game, along with a season low of 5.0 yards per play. That would tie the second best game the Vikings have had offensively. Washington is the better all-around team and the line play for the Redskins is far superior overall to Minnesota, who are -11 sacks the past three games.

PLAY WASHINGTON

460 NY Jets at Miami

Fourth road game in five weeks for the Jets who have scored 17 points or less in 4 of 8 games this season. In first half play NY is 2-6 in yards per play which means most of any offense success has been with the team behind late. The last six games the Jets have trailed by the half. 

Miami has improved with the football as of late producing 6.8 and 7.0 yards per play the past two games. That was against the Pittsburgh and Buffalo defenses. Coming off a bye we like rookie coaches to put in new plays to stump the opposition. That’s the case here as Miami has extra time to prepare. We look for the Dolphins to take care of business here as this team has a huge scheduling advantage. The Dolphins haven’t left home since way back on September 29th at Cincinnati. Much easier than 4 of 5 weeks traveling for the Jets.

PLAY MIAMI

260 New England at Buffalo

If you follow public betting patterns it’s clear that the Patriots will be a major play for most people on Sunday. Currently 92% of the money and 85% of the bets are on the Patriots. Yet the line has barely moved. That means the books are confident that Buffalo is a team it wants to back here, and we always like to be on the side of the bookmakers. In fact the sharpest books are sitting with the best line for Patriot backers, while you can get 6 and 6 1/2 at the so called square books in Vegas.

It’s tough going against the Pats especially in a revenge situation, but this line is simply too high. It’s basically stating that on a neutral field New England is 9 points better than the Bills. Buffalo has outscored the opposition the past five games 149-81. This team is also 9-2 in the home dog role. We expect this one to come down to the last possession. 

PLAY BUFFALO

464 Oakland at Jacksonville

Raiders enter this game at 4-2 on the season but have lost the cards per play battle in every single contest. The reason for the Oakland success has been a plus 5 turnover margin. While this team is a perfect 3-0 on the road, all victories came by a single point. This has been a very fortunate team in which we can take advantage.

The Jags are 2-3 on the season but have won the yards per play battle in four of those five games. While the Raiders are +5 in TO’s the Jaguars are -5. That pretty much is the differential in records between these two. Jacksonville was right in there against Green Bay and Baltimore, with a very little amount of luck this team could be 4-1. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

466 Indianapolis at Tennessee

Second of back to back road games for the Colts, coming off a no rest week against Chicago after playing in London. It’s the first time a team elected to play the game after traveling overseas and it could play a major factor here. Indy simply isn’t nearly as good as it has been since Andrew Luck took over. While it sits at 3-3 on the season, none of the wins came by more than six points. In fact, using yards per play Indianapolis has only won that battle once all season. Both meetings with the Titans last year were close, with Indy winning by margins of 2 and 3 points. The Titans get over the hump here.

At 3-3 on the season this team has a real chance at reaching the playoffs for the first time in a long while. in yards per play Tennessee is 4-1-1 on the season. While the Colts have been traveling extensively, the Titans are home for the second of three straight games. Great spot for the host as Tennessee keeps the momentum going.

PLAY TENNESSEE

264 Los Angeles at Detroit

The Rams and Giants travel to London next week. Teams that have that trip on deck have been a terrible pointspread proposition. In fact, Los Angeles in taking off from Detroit instead of returning back home. Football teams are a regimented group. Doing things exactly the same every day of the week during the season. A travel situation like this is sure to mess up your weekly flow of energy.

The Rams haven’t spent two weeks at home the entire season up to this point and won’t until back to back home games hosting San Francisco and Arizona to end the regular season. The Rams have lost the yards per play stat in every game played this season. 

Unlike the visitor the Lions are home for the second of three straight weeks. Detroit is 8–3-2 ATS under Jim Caldwell as a home favorite. The Rams will get the full attention on the Lions here in a great scheduling spot for the host.

PLAY DETROIT

456 New England at Cleveland

The day has finally arrived when Tom Brady returns to the field and leads the Patriots to the Super Bowl. While that does have a nice ring to it, chances are he will be a bit rusty coming out of the gate. He hasn’t been able to attend team functions during this suspension, so no doubt he will be a bit behind where he normally would be. And that will be especially true in the first half on Sunday. 

Cleveland has played much better than its record especially in the first half where the Browns have actually outscored the opposition. Cleveland has the ground game to shorten this contest which makes the QB edge for New England slightly less than normal. This is just the second home game of the season for Cleveland and we expect the Browns to be a feisty bunch on Sunday.

PLAY CLEVELAND

462 Philadelphia at Detroit

The Eagles had the legitimizer game right before the week off as they crushed the Steelers 34-3. You know this team is living high on the hog the past two weeks savoring its success. But turnovers have been a big part of that 3-0 record with a +6 turnover margin. Now the team takes to the road to play a Detroit team coming off three straight losses. 

The Lions are 11-6 straight up at home as of late with just three of those losses coming by more than a field goal. While Philly is fat and happy this is a must win situation for the host. We expect the Lions to get it done as the Eagles come in overrated.

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276 Kansas City at Pittsburgh

We like to not only power rate teams based on total game performances, but also first half play which is a truer indication of team strength. In the first half Kansas City is being outscored 37-23 with a +1 turnover advantage. The Chiefs have been outgunned by 2.4, 0.9 and 0.8 yards per play in the first half. This is a squad that overall has lost the sack battle by two in each game, despite the fact that the Chiefs don’t throw the ball downfield. 

Pittsburgh is off an embarrassing lost to instate rival Philadelphia. The weakness in the Steeler defense is throws of 15 or more yards in the air. Kansas City simply doesn’t throw the ball long as its a dink and dunk passing game. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a strong home field and win this by double digits.

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268 Denver at Tampa Bay

Now that the line has risen above a field goal its time to step in with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a home underdog. This team is in a must win situation and this contest is much more important to the host. At 1-2 on the season and a trip to Carolina on deck Tampa cannot afford to lose this contest. Turnovers have hurt the Bucs thus far and are a concern here against this aggressive Denver defense, but they have outgunned 2 of 3 opponents in yards per play.

Denver is a perfect 3-0 on the season and go on the road for the second straight week. With a nice lead in the division we can see Denver underperforming here. Keep in mind the Broncos are playing a non-conference affair which is the lowest priority games on the NFL schedule. 

This line is saying that the Broncos are a 6 point better team on a neutral field. That’s a bit much, especially considering the situation for the host.

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253 Cleveland at Washington

Nothing wrong with this Browns offense regardless of who is behind center. Against pretty good defenses in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Miami the Browns have produced 5.8, 6.6 and 5.8 yards per play. The problem has been a Browns defense which has yielded 29, 25 and 30 points the first three weeks.

Like Cleveland the Washington offense remains fine with 7.0, 6.6 and 5.9 ypp in the first three games. The problems are a sieve of a defense permitting 38, 27 and 27 points. 

Right now this Cleveland offense is under the radar based on past history and the turnover at quarterback. We use that to our advantage in this likely high scoring affair.

PLAY OVER

264 Tennessee at Houston

We’ve waited all week as the public has gotten involved in this one pushing the line way below where it should have been. This game should have been lined around a touchdown but with the news of JJ Watt possibly being lost for the season the line has dropped roughly 3 points. In his prime Watt was worth about 1 1/2 points to the spread. He has been injured all year with a back problem and the analytics show he has been a below average NFL player this season. So we get a 3 point line movement on a team that should be even better just by not having the injured player on the field. 

Houston is off an embarrassing 27-0 shutout loss on national television last Thursday. The Texans have two full days to prepare and it has owned the Titans as of late. Winning by margins of 28, 14, 24 and 14 points the last two seasons. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS as a divisional road dog under Mike Mularkey.

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487 Chicago at Dallas

The injury to Jay Cutler is a positive as Brian Hoyer is equal or better than the troubled Bears starter. In fact, his teammates have never been a fan of Cutler so we should see an added focus for Hoyer. 

Dallas has been a very poor team at home posting a 1-8 straight up mark at the Jerry Dome. Underdogs in Cowboys games have been golden the past few seasons as points seem to be at a premium. Dallas is a public team, and after the terrible Monday Night Football performances from the Bears, value is on Chicago.

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469 Cleveland at Miami

Nobody wants any part of the Browns right now and there is even talk of Cleveland going winless. But keep in mind the Browns had a better yards per play average in both games against Philadelphia and Baltimore. The drop-off at quarterback from RGIII and McCown to Kessler is out eyes is very minimal. We’ve already seen rookie QBs have success the past couple years, and we see no reason why Kessler can’t keep the Browns competitive.

Miami has one of the weakest home field advantages in the NFL, and how many times do you see an 0-2 team laying this type of number? This goes down to the wire.

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476 Minnesota at Carolina

Carolina struggled offensively the last two games against Denver, and we rate this Minnesota team just as strongly defensively. Minnesota has been on quite the pointspread run as the winning has continued into the 2016 season. 

Despite the loss of their top running back who is out a few games at the minimum, we are fine with the other Minnesota runners. Bradford has been solid as a replacement at quarterback and we just don’t see a lot of difference in our power ratings between these two teams. A touchdown is just too much to lay into this Minnesota defense.

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290 Philadelphia at ChicagoFirst road start for rookie Carson Wentz who was fortunate to play the weak Cleveland defense opening week. We have the Eagles as one of the four worst teams in the NFL and it will be proven out on Monday Night.The Bears were right in that game last week until late, and we feel this team is being underrated. Already off a loss and with this being a very winnable game we will back the host here. Chicago is a much better team and the current line is very short.PLAY CHICAGO