Cappers Sports Picks

102 New England & Los Angeles Rams

We were waiting for the +3 on the Rams, but it may not show. That’s fine as this will be graded on the LA Rams money line, as we feel the Rams win this one outright. If you are able to get +3 -110 yourself, we would recommend that as well. 

First off let’s take a look at the advantages the Patriots have over the Rams. Head Coach and Quarterback. There has been no better combination in the history of the NFL than Brady & Belichick. The Patriots have the vast experience in the Super Bowl, which should be a slight edge for the veterans. Other than those edges the Rams are more talented and faster in virtually every position on the field. 

In the big game last year the Eagles ran the ball all over the Pats, mostly from 11 personnel. It just so happens that the Rams run 11 personnel more than any other team in the league. That’s one running back and one tight end. And as with last year the Pats really struggle defending that alignment. Other than running straight up the middle New England allows a very high success rate on the ground.

When the Patriots have the ball they are excellent at hitting running backs out of the backfield, and taking advantage of short slot plays across the middle. But those two spots are exactly where the Rams excel. Brady has real problems facing pressure up the middle, which is where the Rams pass rush attacks. Therefore the way for New England to succeed in the passing game is longer throws down the sidelines. And quite frankly New England doesn’t have the personnel to win in that regard. Brady is worse than league average throwing outside the hash marks, and the Pats don’t have enough wide receiver speed to get open. 

Every pro we have talked to had made this line roughly Los Angeles -1 before the line was released. In fact, the majority of bookmakers opened that exact line. The reason this line moved is that if you wanted to bet the Patriots you wanted to make sure you got it before it hit the key number of three. If you want to bet the Rams there is no reason to place a bet when the line continued to rise. That is why 80% of the bets and money have come in on the Patriots. All the Rams money is still out there waiting for the key number of three, and if it doesn’t show, those bettors will be happy to play what they rated as the favorite getting plus money.

PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS MONEY LINE

Other ways we attacked this game:

2 Team 6 Point Teaser

Los Angeles +8 1/2

Over 50 1/2

All props will be from the current lines at The Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas in rotation order

You should be able to do better shopping these numbers

Props

10060 No safety -900

10084 No defensive or special teams touchdown -240

Neither team had a punt blocked this season

Teams combined to allow just one return of any kind all season 

10164 James White receiving yards Under 53 1/2 -110

10168 James White receptions Under 6 -130

10184 Julian Edelman receiving yards Under 82 1/2 -110

10305 Jared Goff pass completions Over 24 -110

10351 Todd Gurley receptions Over 3 1/2 +120

10354 CJ Anderson rushing yards Under 43.5 -110

10360 CJ Anderson score a touchdown No -180

10382 Brandin Cooks receiving yards Under 72 1/2 -110

10397 Josh Reynolds receptions Over 3 1/2 +110

10504 Jared Goff more completions +2 1/2-110

10536 Rams more first downs +1 1/2 -110

66016 No missed extra point -340

These two kickers combined for 84 of 86 extra points and 40 of 40 on field goals of 39 or less yards. Over/Under is 6.25 touchdowns 

66020 Total quarterback sacks Under 3 1/2 +110

314 New England at Kansas City

This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. 

Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. 

The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

312 LA Rams at New Orleans

Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. 

PLAY NEW ORLEANS

307 Philadelphia at New Orleans

The Eagles are a completely different offense under Foles, and the team has responded to his leadership for the second year in a row. The Saints can be beaten deep and Foles has the talent around him to exploit the Saints weakness.

New Orleans on the other hand should have a field day against this banged up Philadelphia secondary. The way the Eagles play defense sets up great for this offense, just like it did in the earlier meeting. With this game being played indoors we look for a shootout.

PLAY New Orleans

302 Indianapolis at Kansas City

Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. 

Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback.

Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

301 Indianapolis at Kansas City

With the snow having an effect on the game casual bettors are playing the under. But that plays right into the hands of the offense as the receivers have a bigger advantage knowing where they are going. Wind not snow is a reason to play an under, and we already expected to see plenty of scoring in this game. 

Indy plays zone defense and the Chiefs are excellent in picking apart the zone. Kansas City is terrible against the run, which will open up the Colts passing game. We look for a shootout here and the number is even better with the weather.

PLAY OVER

104 Seattle at Dallas

The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. 

Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. 

Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. 

PLAY DALLAS

277 Texas & Georgia in New Orleans

The Longhorns lost just two of its last 11 regular season games. The defeats coming to Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia by a single point. Texas also split against Oklahoma losing the conference championship. Tom Herman has been an excellent underdog regardless of where he has coached. Off his worst loss of the season we expect the best out of this Texas squad. 

Georgia is an elite team that deserved to be in the final four. It was even more pronounced after Notre Dame was pounded by Clemson. But the question to be asked is how is this team going to get up to play Texas here, after being so close to playing for the national title. This is the least important bowl game in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has the superior talent, but winning by this margin is very questionable. We know what we are going to get out of the Longhorns, not so much out of the Bulldogs.

PLAY TEXAS

275 LSU & UCF in Glendale

The Tigers were a bit overrated all season but still ended up cashing half its games. When breaking down how it did against elite opponents LSU went 1-3 SU with the only victory coming against Georgia in a game with a +4 turnover advantage. Losses to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M were understandable. 

Central Florida obviously played a much easier schedule, which is the main reason the winning streak is still intact. Last year the Knights beat fellow SEV squad Auburn in the Peach Bowl 34-27. But the Tigers chain they were disinterested in playing. The key to this game in Central’s ability to run the football against this very talented LSU front seven. We believe UCF can score enough in this game to take it to the wire. The loss of QB Milton hurts, but the backup has had plenty of reps in the last month. Too many points here for the Tigers to lay.

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

265 Northwestern & Utah in San Diego

The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS the last decade in bowl games, winning 3 of the last 4 in straight up fashion. Pat Fitzgerald is an excellent coach who gets the best out of his players when not at a major talent disadvantage. Wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa, should prepare his team today.

Kyle Whittingham is also a coach that deserves accolades. His only losses this year were to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, three teams that went bowling. But when looking at quality wins the best we can come up with are Stanford and BYU. We have these two clubs rated much closer than the current number, which is why we feel the victor gets the win by a field goal or less. Plenty of value on the Big 10 here.

PLAY NORTHWESTERN

261 Michigan State & Oregon in Santa Clara

Mark Dantonio is a coach we are looking to back this time of year. His teams are 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl season as of late, with the only loss coming at the hands of Nick Saban and Alabama. 

We have no problem fading a PAC12 team in this price range, as the conference as a whole has been a major disappointment. There is some excitement in Eugene with Justin Herbert returning behind center for another season, but he wasn’t overly impressive this year. 

Michigan State is the better coached team and gets the victory here.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

315 Cleveland at Baltimore

Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play.

While the Ravens need a victory to make the playoffs, the Browns have their own motivation. With a win Cleveland can end the season with a winning record, something that didn’t look possible under the previous coach. When looking at stats for the past six weeks it’s the Browns, not the Ravens who have been the slightly better team. This game should be decided by a field goal either way.

PLAY CLEVELAND

Miami at Buffalo

Money continues to pour in on the Bills, as many feel the warm blooded Dolphins will simply throw in the towel and not mentally show up in Buffalo. But keep in mind these are professionals and more importantly divisional rivals. This line has risen at least two points based on something that is based on hearsay. 

Let’s take a look at home the Dolphins have done going north the last two games of the season. Over the last decade Miami is 8-2 ATS traveling to a cold weather climate, 7-2 ATS when playing that game outside a dome. 

Buffalo has been better than many thought, but not to the extent of this number. The Bills may in fact win, but the cover is seriously in doubt.

PLAY MIAMI 

313 Jacksonville at Houston

Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play.

Jacksonville’s defense has been outstanding for most of the season. And now Bortles the much more mobile quarterback is back behind center. It’s clear that the Jags have had offensive line problems all season, with a mobile QB behind center Jacksonville should find yards earlier to come by. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

256 Notre Dame & Clemson at Arlington

Just about everyone we respect in the gambling community rates Notre Dame outside of the top four by power ratings. Georgia would have been a ten point favorite over the Irish on a neutral field. So while Notre Dame went undefeated, keep in mind the only real team it beat was Michigan in the season opener. 

Clemson has the postseason pedigree that the Irish lack.  The Tigers have played in the national semi-final each of the last three seasons. The defense could be the best in the nation even with the drug suspensions. In our eyes the starting quarterback is the most pro ready signal caller in the country, even without starting the season behind center. Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama are elite, Notre Dame is on another lower level.

PLAY CLEMSON

245 Arkansas State & Nevada in Arizona

Wrong team is favored in our eyes as the Red Wolves take much better care of the ball that the Wolf Pack. Arkansas State lost the turnover battle just twice all season. Arkansas State has posted eight straight winning seasons, with this being the eighth straight bowl game for the Red Wolves. The final four games of the season saw this squad allow just 54 combined points.

Nevada lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 FBS games. Keep in mind this club won just three games last year and haven’t been to a bowl since 2015. Wrong team favored.

PLAY ARKANSAS STATE

238 Miami Florida & Wisconsin at New York

Warm weather squad Miami has to travel to the Bronx in order to avenge the Orange Bowl loss of a year ago. While Miami enters this game at 7-5, none of the wins came against a team having a quality year. Toledo, FIU, North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech all had down years. The victory over Pittsburgh was the week before the Panthers had to play Clemson in the ACC Final. 

Wisconsin had a disappointing season as well with the best quality wins coming against Purdue and Iowa, both on the road. The weather is obviously a benefit for the Badgers here, as well as the strong run game of Wisconsin. Teams that run the football have a solid advantage in timing over a passing team that hasn’t played in 34 days. And Coach Rich has decided to bring back Rosier under center, who has gotten little play as of late.

PLAY WISCONSIN

232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan

From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football.

Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits.

PLAY GEORGIA TECH

111 NY Giants at Indianapolis

The Giants have been one of the best road underdogs for years. Now with Indy fighting for the playoffs the line is inflated. Playing against teams that need to win is a great way to increase your bankroll near the end of the season. Nobody wants the Giants here, which is why the value is on the dog.

PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS

118 Green Bay at New York Jets

Rodgers is expected to play but it’s clear he’s not himself. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and yet the markets haven’t caught up to the 2018 Packers.

The Jets have played much better as of late and are a dangerous home dog. We expect this line to go down towards game time. We expect the outright home dog winner.

PLAY NEW YORK JETS

119 Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. 

Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack.

PLAY CINCINNATI

124 Baltimore at LA Chargers

Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career.

We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here.

PLAY SAN DIEGO

224 Houston at Army

The Cougars are without its excellent quarterback and one of the top picks in the upcoming draft in Ed Oliver. The word we are getting out of Texas is that this team is not overly excited to be playing in its own state. The Cougars also played in this bowl just four years ago.

Army had an outstanding season when compared to preseason expectations. Military schools have been big money makers in bowl season historically. The line contunues to go up on this game and we want to get it before it hits the key numbers of 6 and 7. Even though we have Army winning by double digits, it's a better value now as opposed to what we will see at game time.

PLAY ARMY

222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham

Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. 

Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis.

PLAY MEMPHIS

215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa

The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. 

Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host.

The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher.

PLAY MARSHALL

213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas

The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game.

San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. 

PLAY OHIO U

332 New Orleans at Carolina

Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense.

New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season.

PLAY CAROLINA

312 Tampa Bay at Baltimore

The Buccaneers have moved the ball well all season but have turned the ball over more than anyone in the league. The positive news is that since the crab man has been reinserted into the lineup, the team has been more conservative. 

Baltimore doesn’t have a passing game with Jackson, and until the Ravens lose we won’t see Flacco in the starting role. 

This total is being based on how these teams played the majority of the season, not how they are playing now. We look for a more conservative game, with the defenses controlling play.

PLAY UNDER

304 Houston at NY Jets

The Texans have been overrated for most of the season as the advanced stats don’t agree with the game outcomes. We took advantage of that knowledge last week as we backed the Colts, and we will do so once again here. This team has big named players, but as a whole rates as an average NFL squad. 

The Jets aren’t world beaters but they are a team that knows it needs to, play its best ball to compete. With a touchdown home underdog that’s exactly what we are looking for. We will take the generous points in what we expect to be a low scoring affair.

PLAY NEW YORK JETS

206 Arizona State & Fresno State in Las Vegas

The Sun Devils have a long history off high scoring bowl games. In the last seven years we have seen 83, 85, 67, 60, 90 and 80  withpoints scored in the six times Arizona State has gone bowling. But this isn’t your typical Sun Devil team, and Fresno State is not your typical defensive opponent. The last three seasons this club permitted 32.8, 39.8 and 33.5 points per game. But this season the opposition has scored 35 or more just twice all year. 

Fresno State has held every opponent this season to 27 points or less. Last year the Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 points per game. This has been an elite defense under Jeff Tedford. Fresno held PAC 12 representative UCLA to just 14 points earlier this season, with a 34% offensive success rate. We look for a defensive battle here.

PLAY UNDER

203 Tulane & Louisiana at Orlando

Louisiana lost its conference championship to Appalachian State, and failed to make its preferred bowl in New Orleans. Louisiana had made that bowl game its own with it becoming a goal before the season. Now it must travel to Orlando, which isn’t a bad second choice. That said, the team wasn’t overly excited about it early on, which may give us a nice edge here. Keep in mind the Rain’ Cajuns have been bowling five of the last seven years. 

Tulane is a 6-6 team that hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013. This is a team that wants to end the season with a win and finish with a winning record. Teams entering bowls at 6-6 have been a very nice point spread play. In that last bowl game the Green Wave lost to this Louisiana team 24-21, so there is some revenge in mind. 

PLAY TULANE

301 Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City

Finally, finally get a quality game on the Thursday card. We’ve talked all season about home non-divisional teams having a huge advantage, but the media just looks at the overall numbers. The vast majority of home success comes from the two opponents not knowing each other well. That’s not the case with divisional rivals who play each other twice a year. While Andy Reid is clearly the better coach, having this game on Thursday actually hurts the Chiefs, as it cuts down on his ability to put in a full game plan. There is also the situation of Kansas City going to overtime Sunday, and playing on a short week. Without getting into specifics, it’s a really poor point spread proposition. 

We saw last week how a team without a passing game can beat these Chiefs, the Chargers have the ability to beat you through the air and on the ground. And we all know Los Angeles has the clearly better defense. Let’s get this one out now as we expect this line to move come game day.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

107 Indianapolis at Houston

While you rarely find point spread value on a team in a must win situation, the Colts have plenty of value here. While Houston stands at 9-3 on the season with a comfortable three game divisional lead, the Colts are 6-6 and sit right out of the wildcard playoff spot. The last time these two met the Colts had this game sandwiched between the champion Eagles and the former champion Patriots. That matchup with Houston was won by the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. But the Colts are playing much better ball since, and while the Texans have run off eight straight victories, the wins have not been impressive. 

The Texans so far this season have played just two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. The Patriots opening week and the Cowboys in game five. In fact, as of right now the Texans don’t play another team that is currently in the playoffs the rest of the year. 

The Colts are just as good as this Houston team but Indy hasn’t had the same type of luck. We prefer Frank Reich to Bill O’Brien anytime, and the Texans come into this game fat and happy. Great time to grab the Colts.

PLAY INDIANAPOLIS

109 Carolina at Cleveland

Ron Rivera has taken over the defense and he’s always been very aggressive in his play calling. Therefore we expect a lot of blitzing from the Panthers, which should really give Baker Mayfield problems. 

The Browns rookie has been very comfortable when in a clean pocket, but his numbers have really gone down under pressure. The Panthers are in a must win situation here while the Browns continue to try to turn this franchise around. Cheap number on the visitor. 

PLAY CAROLINA 

379 Washington at Philadelphia

Redskins are getting healthier by the week while the Eagles continue to play short handed, especially in the defensive backfield. When looking at the year to date numbers it’s clear that this line is too high. If you would just look at these stats from a Team A and Team B standpoint, and disregarded the team names, the dog would be a clear play. With the Skins being overlooked we will gladly take the points with the nearly equal team.

PLAY WASHINGTON

376 Minnesota at New England

The Vikings are coming off its two most important games of the season against Chicago and Green Bay, with a Monday Night Football contest at Seattle on deck. This non-conference affair is the least important game on the remaining schedule. Rhodes was injured last time out and he’s the glue of this defense, he says he is going to play but the doctors aren’t in agreement. Even if he goes he will not be the same player as we have come to expect.

New England is by far the best December team in the league. Year in and year out this team gets better as the season goes along. There is also a major positive trend of New England laying less than a touchdown at home. The Pats came off a bye last week to face the Jets, and have lowly Miami on deck. This is a great spot for the host.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

359 Cleveland at Houston

Obviously the Browns have been a much better team after making the coaching changes. So you can dismiss most of the year to date stats. This is a team that has stockpiled high draft picks and is an up and coming team.

Houston on the other hand is playing on a short week after a statement win over Tennessee on Monday Night Football. Not to mention the winning streak the Texans are on. With Indianapolis, the Jets on Sunday Night Football, and visiting the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on deck, this is a major flat spot in the schedule for the host.

PLAY CLEVELAND

361 Buffalo at Miami

The Bills have been considered the worst team in the league for much of this season. But now with a dual threat quarterback behind center this team is on the rise. After back to back victories over the Jets and Jags, this is a confident bunch. The defense is one of the best units in the league, and now doesn’t have to carry the weight of the offense.

Miami won three straight games to start the season, but have dropped 6 of 8 since. One of those victories went to overtime and the other was a seven point home win over the Jets. Miami has a nice home advantage early in the season when the weather in southern Florida is hot and muggy, that’s not the case this time of year. Over the last five years Miami is just 4-10-1 ATS its last three home games of the season.

PLAY BUFFALO

365 Denver at Cincinnati

The Broncos should move the ball well against one of the worst defenses in the league. This is a team playing with confidence after facing the Steelers and Chargers coming out of the bye. With Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland on deck, this is a team that isn’t out of the playoff hunt. 

Very short total here considering the Bengals are finally healthy at the receiver spot. Word out of Cincinnati is that the players are excited to get a good look at Driscoll behind center. The talk in camp is that the team doesn’t expect and offensive drop-off. This line expects the Bengals to really struggle offensively, we disagree.

PLAY OVER

320 Pittsburgh at Clemson

The Panthers are a team that prefers to run the ball and play defense. It will be very difficult for this team to have success on the ground against this stout Clemson stop unit. But this Pitt defense could be good enough to keep this game close. The last four games this stop unit has been outstanding with 20.0, 35.3, 39.0 and 38.0% success rates. Sure this Clemson scoring unit is superior to Miami, Wake, VT and Virginia, but without the Panthers putting points on the board this total is way too high. 

PLAY UNDER

332 Akron at South Carolina

A disappointing season for the Zips comes to a close with an added game at South Carolina. Because of the opening game at Nebraska being cancelled the Zips needed to take this game to fill out the schedule. With a four win season Akron has no way of going to the postseason, so its hard to understand the emotion here with a four game losing streak on the line. 

South Carolina is off a loss to rival Clemson, but the Gamecocks actually played pretty well in covering that number. In fact, South Carolina has cashed three straight FBS games as of late. With the future looking brighter for the host we can really see this team motivated to end the season with a blowout victory. The offense has been rolling and the defense steps way down in class. 

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

182 Utah State at Boise State

The Aggies have gotten a lot of well deserved publicity this season by blowing out lesser opponents. But in looking back at the schedule this club has only played two decent opponents, Michigan State and BYU. Each of those games were played while fully rested. The Spartans in the opening game and BYU off a bye. Coming off games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, this team isn’t prepared to step up to this level. Boise State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series.

Boise State faced Troy, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Nevada, BYU and Fresno State this season. This club has been tested much more than the Aggies. We back the home favorite here.

PLAY BOISE STATE

139 Virginia at Virginia Tech

Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. 

The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back.

PLAY VIRGINIA

111 Colorado State at Air Force

This is truly a rivalry game as neither team has enough wins to go bowling this year. The Rams defense was horrendous in the early part of the schedule, but since getting into conference play has been better. Last year the Rams were a 10 point favorite in this contest, that’s a 24 1/2 point change in line from two teams that aren’t good enough to go bowling. This is also a big drop in opponent strength after facing Utah State and Nevada the past two weeks. Air Force just doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this size.

PLAY COLORADO STATE

101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan

We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. 

Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

457 Minnesota at Chicago

Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer.

After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. 

Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in.

PLAY MINNESOTA

459 Philadelphia at New Orleans

Now that Carson Wentz is getting healthier by the week, we look for this Eagles offense to get on a roll. The past five games Philadelphia has produced 55, 50, 52, 50 and 60% offensive success rates. The Eagles defense has suffered injuries especially in the defensive backfield, so this game should be a shootout. 

New Orleans has scored at least 40 points in all but one game this season. The last three games the offense has produced 69, 54 and 55% offensive play success rates. Also in that same time frame the Saints have permitted 23 combined explosive plays.

PLAY OVER

470 Oakland at Arizona

Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. 

Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise.

PLAY ARIZONA

461 Tennessee at Indianapolis

Now that Marcus Mariota is finally healthy this Titans offense is starting to find success. Offensive success rates of 51, 52 and 54% the past three games. In that time period the Titans have produced 28 total explosive plays.

Indy has consistently been one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Over the past four games the Colts have averaged 35.5 points per game. Other than the game where it allowed just 5 points to the lowly Bills, this defense has permitted 26, 28, 42, 38 and 37 points. This one should fly over the posted total.

PLAY OVER

385 UAB at Texas A&M

Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. 

A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. 

PLAY UAB

327 Virginia at Georgia Tech

Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the option offense, facing it the last two seasons against these Yellow Jackets, and for many years against Air Force when he was at BYU. This defense has held the opposition to only 38.3% successful plays this season. Only twice has a team put up more than 24 points against this defense. 

Georgia Tech has won three straight and comes into this game on a nice roll. But a closer look at the opposition shows all three opponents it beat have been disappointing this season. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami Florida have all failed to meet preseason expectations. We back the much better defense to easily cover this number.

PLAY VIRGINIA

308 Green Bay at Seattle

Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight.

PLAY SEATTLE

312 Tulane at Houston

The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close.

PLAY HOUSTON

305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois

Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois.

We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number.

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

258 Washington at Tampa Bay

This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. 

Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

139 Miami Florida at Georgia Tech

The Hurricanes have lost three straight games heading into this contest, all as point spread favorites. So we are buying this Miami team at a season low, and this is the first time all season Miami has been installed as an underdog. 

Georgia Tech has been held below its season average each of the past five years against Miami. This is a team that dominates teams that don’t see the option on a regular basis. But Miami has the athletes to slow down this running game. Georgia Tech is on a high right now off back to back double digit victories. Buy low, sell high.

PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA

151 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The Cowboys have dropped 3 of 4 games as of late, losing as a favorite three times. But a win over Oklahoma would make the season for this team. Oklahoma State has dropped this in-state rivalry by double digits each of the past three seasons. But this line is simply too high. 

For Oklahoma the season comes down to the trip to West Virginia on the 23rd. There is no lookahead with Kansas on deck. That said, the Sooners haven’t played too many quality offenses until last week at Texas Tech. Despite the win Oklahoma permitted 46 points. We expect the Sooners to easily stay under this number.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

125 Kentucky at Tennessee

Despite the loss last week the Wildcats still have a lot to play for. This should be its toughest test the remainder of the season with Middle Tennessee and Louisville to finish off the year. The Wildcats have played very well on the road with wins over Florida, Missouri and went to overtime at Texas A&M. 

Tennessee peaked a month ago with a 30-24 win at Auburn. But when looking at successful offensive plays Tennessee was at 32% while Auburn came in at 45%. The Volunteers have only outplayed one team all season in successful play percentage, and that was the pathetic UTEP Miners. Oh yeah, the Volunteers failed to cover that game by 9 1/2 points. 

PLAY KENTUCKY

179 Wisconsin at Penn State

Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. 

Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite.

PLAY WISCONSIN

111 Louisville at Syracuse

Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. 

The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

106 Toledo at Northern Illinois

The Rockets offense has shown itself the past two weeks with success rates of 54.1% against Ball State and 53.0% vs Western Michigan. But the previous week this offense was held to 24.0% against a good defense in Buffalo, and this Huskies stop unit resembles the Buffalo stop unit much better than the last two opponents. 

Northern Illinois was our pick for the conference title preseason, and now that conference action is in full swing we like the Huskies chances. This is a team that is undefeated in MAC play with the only losses coming at Iowa and Florida State, and hosting Utah. We get the much better stop unit at home laying a small number. Let the general public back the inconsistent high scoring team, we like MAC defense.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans

In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense.

New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total.

PLAY OVER

467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle

The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate.

The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. 

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

330 Georgia at Kentucky

There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best.

Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. 

We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown.

PLAY KENTUCKY

400 Kansas State at TCU

It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t

been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. 

The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here.

PLAY TCU

387 Iowa State at Kansas

Willing to back one of the best young coaches in college football against the weakest team in the conference. The Cyclones have won three straight games and looked really good off its bye week with a 58-40 victory over Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has struggled a bit against excellent passing offenses but have dominated against pedestrian offensive squads. Allowing 13 to Iowa, 13 to Akron, 17 to TCU. The Cyclones also surprisingly held a very good West Virginia offense to just 14 points. Iowa State shut out the Jayhawks 45-0 a year ago.

Kansas has played a very weak schedule thus far. The best three teams it played was Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 68 points. On the season this team is only producing 34.1% successful offensive plays. Iowa State is allowing just 38.2% successful offensive plays, and that is against a seven point tougher schedule than the Jayhawks.

PLAY IOWA STATE

311 Northern Illinois at Akron

Huskies have played a four point tougher schedule and still post better advantaged numbers than the Zips. Northern is also fresher playing its second game after a bye while Akron plays its fifth. Northern has a clear advantage defensively allowing just 34.1% success rate on the season. The Huskies are also better in the trenches when looking at the sack rate.

Akron does have a pretty good defense allowing just 37.0% successful plays, but that offense is putrid at a 32.1% success rate. The Zips have really struggled to put points on the board against much worse stop units, can’t count on them here against the best defense it has played.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. 

Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

261 Seattle at Detroit

The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late.

Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite.

PLAY SEATTLE

252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London

Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here.

Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team.

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

135 Illinois at Maryland

The last two weeks the Illini was a 10 1/2 point home underdog to Purdue, and a 24 point underdog at Wisconsin. If you switch the home field ratings for the Purdue game Illinois would have been at most 15 1/2. Now we find a Maryland team that is far worse laying an inflated number. By our stats Illinois has played a two point tougher schedule than the Terrapins, yet the successful play data only shows Maryland to be about eight points better on a neutral field. This is just too high of a line to not get involved. Maryland gave Rutgers just five points more on this field just two weeks ago. Say what you will about Lovie Smith’s team, it’s not comparable to Rutgers.

PLAY ILLINOIS

191 Cincinnati at SMU

The Bearcats had its undefeated season end a week ago with an overtime loss to Temple. We were on the Owls in that game and felt we were lucky to get that victory. Even in a loss the Bearcats held a very good Temple team to only 26% successful offensive plays. In fact, on the season Cincinnati is allowing just 30.7% of offensive plays to be successful. While not playing a who’s who of explosive offenses, I don’t care who you played those defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the Bearcats take on another weak offensive team in SMU. The Mustangs have played a 13 point tougher schedule, but the offense still remains subpar. A 28.4% successful play rate on offense just doesn’t inspire much confidence no matter the opposition. We have no problem laying a small number on the road with the much superior stop unit of the Bearcats.

PLAY CINCINNATI

194 Vanderbilt at Arkansas

Third road game is four weeks for the Commodores who have a bye week on deck. This team just played the three physical defenses of Kentucky, Florida and Georgia. Now it’s installed as a road favorite at Arkansas. Keep in mind Vandy is 2-16 straight up on the SEC road. 

Arkansas has played a one point tougher schedule and the success rates are exactly the same. Arkansas has struggled against very good offenses like Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. That hasn’t been the case when stepping down in class. The wrong team is favored here as our number shows Arkansas by a field goal.

PLAY ARKANSAS

109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern

Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points.

Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest.

PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE

106 Toledo at Western Michigan

This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan.

The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

470 New Orleans at Baltimore

The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host.

PLAY BALTIMORE

405 USC at Utah

Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad.

Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor.

PLAY USC

389 NC State at Clemson

Yes this is a big step up in class for the Wolfpack, but the results the last two years show us NC State can make this a game. Back to back seven point losses including one in overtime have the Wolfpack entering this contest with great confidence. This club is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS vs FBS competition, and has an NFL ready quarterback. 

Clemson has what many feel is the best defensive line in college football. But State has only been sacked once all season. It has an 11-1 sack advantage while Clemson’s is 17-8. Two great lines do battle and NC State holds their own in the trenches. Both defenses are outstanding and we expect this to be a lower scoring contest. With points at a premium this line is way too high.

PLAY NC STATE

321 Virginia at Duke

Only road game in a six week span for the Cavaliers. Virginia has won the past three meetings in this series, with the spreads being 3 1/2 or less. Which is one of the reasons we are looking to take the higher number here with the visitor. The victory over Miami Florida last week wasn’t a fluke. Virginia was even in turnovers in that game, had the higher early down success rate, and the better offensive play success rate. 

Duke is a quality team but doesn’t deserve to be this high a favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Two of its wins this year came against option based teams. In the other two FBS wins the team took advantage of a combined +4 turnover margin. 

PLAY VIRGINIA

314 Cincinnati at Temple

Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. 

Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now.

PLAY TEMPLE

339 Buffalo at Toledo

We missed the best number on this one, but we still have plenty of value to fade what could be the most disappointing team in college football. Buffalo has a huge advantage at the point of attack. The Bulls have a 16-4 sack advantage, while Toledo is down 17-4. You likely won’t see a bigger discrepancy in any game this year. While the offenses are similarly productive, the Bulls only allow a 36.6% success rate on defense. The Bulls are 3-0 straight up on the road including a 36-29 win at Temple. These two programs are heading in opposite directions.

PLAY BUFFALO

309 Air Force at UNLV

Now that this line has dropped it’s time to step in with the Falcons. In last years meeting Air Force wore down the Rebels as the game progressed, outscoring UNLV 27-3 in the second half. We expect more of the same here. While the Flyboys offense isn’t quite as good as a season ago, we like what this defense has been doing. The last two games Air Force has held the opposition to 20 and 32% successful offensive plays. Overall 28 combined points allowed against Navy and San Diego State.

The Rebels have now played two games without its starting quarterback. The Teams been outscored in that time 109-42. During that period the defense permitted 55 and 57% successful offensive plays. Just can’t trust this home club who hasn’t posted a winning season record at Sam Boys Stadium since 2013. 

PLAY AIR FORCE

276 Kansas City at New England

The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. 

New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season.

I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series.

While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers.

This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number.

PLAY ATLANTA

124 Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina

Terrible spot for the Warhawks who are playing its third straight road game, and fifth in the last six weeks. The last two games have been losses by 49 and 32 points, as ULM continues to have major defensive problems. On the season this team is allowing 56.6% of opponent offensive plays to be successful. 

Coastal Carolina is 2-2 SU & ATS on the season against FBS opposition. This is only the second FBS home game for the Chanticleers who beat UAB 47-24 earlier. Coastal is also off a bye week, so this team should be much fresher than its opposition. Let’s lay the short number here with the Chanticleers.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

121 Texas A&M at South Carolina

This Aggies team is much better than its 3-2 SU record in FBS games suggest. Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS despite losing the turnover battle by a combined six through five games. While this team is known for its offense the defense is allowing just 35.9% of plays to be successful. More impressive when you consider it has faced Clemson and Alabama, the two best teams in the country.

South Carolina was expected to be very good this year, and are doing pretty well themselves. But our numbers show that defensively this team is virtually average, as opposed to the stout defense that many expected. Coming off a hard fought back and forth game against Missouri, will the Gamecocks have the defense to take down the Aggies? We think not.

PLAY TEXAS A&M

162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois

Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses.

Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

183 Central Florida at Memphis

We really expected the Knights to take a step back this season after losing Scott Frost to Nebraska. But that hasn’t been the case with UCF going 4-0 SU & ATS vs FBS opposition. The Knights have permitted just two sacks all season, and have allowed just 36.7% successful offensive plays. The Knights are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the past 2+ seasons. 

This is a huge revenge game for the Tigers who lost to the Knights 62-55 in double overtime last season. But if you’ve watched Memphis this year it’s clear this isn’t the same quality team. The Tigers have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the country. Navy, Georgia State, South Alabama, Tulane and Connecticut. None of those teams are any good, including the Midshipmen who are way down from previous editions. 

The revenge situation will bring money to the Tigers, but UCF is clearly the much better team. Despite the extremely weak schedule Memphis has allowed 11 sacks which producing just 9. 

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

185 Tennessee at Auburn

The Volunteers have played three of the best teams in the country, West Virginia, Florida and Georgia. They enter this game with a -9 turnover margin in FBS contests. But this team is off a bye and now catch over two touchdowns against one of the worst offenses in the power five conferences.

Defensively the Tigers are really good, but this offense has done nothing all season. How about a 36.4% successful offensive play percentage. This from a team that has only played one true road game all season. Only once all season in FBS competition this team has scored more than 24 points. This line is way too high in what is expected to be a low scoring game.

PLAY TENNESSEE

111 Arizona at Utah

This Arizona offense isn’t nearly as explosive as a year ago. Mainly because QB Khalil Tate isn’t able to run like in the past. But with the offense being more conservative the defense has improved by leaps and bounds. 

Utah is coming off back to back conference road games before facing the Wildcats here on a short week. Next week the Utes host traditional league power USC. In looking at successful offensive plays Utah has been below FBS average in all but one game this season, last week at Stanford. So right now the Utes enter this game priced higher than at any time this season. On a short week after its biggest victory of the season. Utah is only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, tough to lay this number without offensive explosion ability.

ARIZONA

105 Texas Tech at TCU

Both teams are coming into this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position. As injuries have affected both starters. But the backups have seen significant time, so we are not worried about who is or isn’t behind center. 

TCU has had a major problem taking care of the football this season. In four FBS games the Horned Frogs have a -10 turnover margin. This is also a team that has struggled in early down success rate, producing just 59.5% on first downs on first or second down. 

Texas Tech on the other hand has been much more efficient at 72.8% early down success rate. The Red Raiders have gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma State 41-17 as a 14 1/2 point underdog, the only true road game TT has played this season. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Kliff Kingsbury the past 3+ seasons. We have this game lined more in the field goal range, which gives us plenty of value on the road underdog.

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467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers

While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays.

The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points.

PLAY OAKLAND

466 Miami at Cincinnati

The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range.

Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. 

PLAY CINCINNATI

409 Nebraska at Wyoming

Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. 

Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. 

Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game.

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379 UAB at Louisiana Tech

The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage.

Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire.

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313 South Alabama at Georgia Southern

Third straight road game for the Jaguars. But this is a major drop down in talent after trips to Oklahoma State, Memphis and Appalachian State. It’s also shutout revenge time for South Alabama who lost at Georgia Southern 52-0 last year in the final game of the regular season. While the Jaguars offense has struggled, the defense has played very well considering the strength of the opposition. Allowing 43.8% of opposing plays to be successful, which is right about league average. In fact, despite the 1-4 record the Jaguars are holding their own in line play as they own 11 sacks while allowing just 10.

Georgia Southern has cashed all three FBS games this season, but much of that has to do with a +4 turnover advantage. On the season this team is averaging just 38.9% successful offensive plays. In the trenches it’s a 7 to 7 sack rate. With a 52-0 victory against this club fresh in their minds, and a Thursday night showdown on deck vs Texas State, we can see the Eagles looking past the opposition here. Too many points considering the advanced stats and the situation.

PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA

398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas

The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. 

Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role.

PLAY TEXAS

335 Missouri at South Carolina

Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. 

While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad.

PLAY MISSOURI