Cappers Sports Picks

308 Green Bay at Seattle

Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight.

PLAY SEATTLE

312 Tulane at Houston

The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close.

PLAY HOUSTON

305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois

Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois.

We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number.

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

258 Washington at Tampa Bay

This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. 

Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring.

PLAY TAMPA BAY

139 Miami Florida at Georgia Tech

The Hurricanes have lost three straight games heading into this contest, all as point spread favorites. So we are buying this Miami team at a season low, and this is the first time all season Miami has been installed as an underdog. 

Georgia Tech has been held below its season average each of the past five years against Miami. This is a team that dominates teams that don’t see the option on a regular basis. But Miami has the athletes to slow down this running game. Georgia Tech is on a high right now off back to back double digit victories. Buy low, sell high.

PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA

151 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The Cowboys have dropped 3 of 4 games as of late, losing as a favorite three times. But a win over Oklahoma would make the season for this team. Oklahoma State has dropped this in-state rivalry by double digits each of the past three seasons. But this line is simply too high. 

For Oklahoma the season comes down to the trip to West Virginia on the 23rd. There is no lookahead with Kansas on deck. That said, the Sooners haven’t played too many quality offenses until last week at Texas Tech. Despite the win Oklahoma permitted 46 points. We expect the Sooners to easily stay under this number.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

125 Kentucky at Tennessee

Despite the loss last week the Wildcats still have a lot to play for. This should be its toughest test the remainder of the season with Middle Tennessee and Louisville to finish off the year. The Wildcats have played very well on the road with wins over Florida, Missouri and went to overtime at Texas A&M. 

Tennessee peaked a month ago with a 30-24 win at Auburn. But when looking at successful offensive plays Tennessee was at 32% while Auburn came in at 45%. The Volunteers have only outplayed one team all season in successful play percentage, and that was the pathetic UTEP Miners. Oh yeah, the Volunteers failed to cover that game by 9 1/2 points. 

PLAY KENTUCKY

179 Wisconsin at Penn State

Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. 

Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite.

PLAY WISCONSIN

111 Louisville at Syracuse

Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. 

The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

106 Toledo at Northern Illinois

The Rockets offense has shown itself the past two weeks with success rates of 54.1% against Ball State and 53.0% vs Western Michigan. But the previous week this offense was held to 24.0% against a good defense in Buffalo, and this Huskies stop unit resembles the Buffalo stop unit much better than the last two opponents. 

Northern Illinois was our pick for the conference title preseason, and now that conference action is in full swing we like the Huskies chances. This is a team that is undefeated in MAC play with the only losses coming at Iowa and Florida State, and hosting Utah. We get the much better stop unit at home laying a small number. Let the general public back the inconsistent high scoring team, we like MAC defense.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

469 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans

In scoring just 29 points last week against Green Bay the Rams produced just 44% successful offensive plays. The next lowest output on the season was the opener at Oakland at 52%. The Rams are averaging 55.8% successful offensive plays on the season, roughly 10% higher than league average. Last week Minnesota did,’y take advantage of this weal Saints defensive backfield, that won’t happen with this offense.

New Orleans is averaging 55.4% offensive play success, but allowing 48.7% themselves. New Orleans has an offense that can match the Rams, and this game is being played in a dome. We expect both offenses to score at will and easily surpass this high total.

PLAY OVER

467 Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle

The Chargers have lost just 5 of its last 19 games. Those five losses came to the Chiefs twice, the Patriots, the Jaguars and the Rams. This is a team that beats the opponents it is better than. And the Chargers are much better than the Seahawks, which is why the visitor has taken money all week. Coming off a bye week we expect this team to dominate.

The Seahawks have four wins on the season, but every victory came against a team not likely to make the playoffs this season. A major reason for the Seattle success is a +10 turnover margin. But the Chargers don’t turn the ball over either, which makes it tough for this Seattle team to score. The Hawks are only averaging 44.6% successful offensive plays, below league average. 

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

330 Georgia at Kentucky

There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best.

Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. 

We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown.

PLAY KENTUCKY

400 Kansas State at TCU

It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t

been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. 

The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here.

PLAY TCU

387 Iowa State at Kansas

Willing to back one of the best young coaches in college football against the weakest team in the conference. The Cyclones have won three straight games and looked really good off its bye week with a 58-40 victory over Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has struggled a bit against excellent passing offenses but have dominated against pedestrian offensive squads. Allowing 13 to Iowa, 13 to Akron, 17 to TCU. The Cyclones also surprisingly held a very good West Virginia offense to just 14 points. Iowa State shut out the Jayhawks 45-0 a year ago.

Kansas has played a very weak schedule thus far. The best three teams it played was Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 68 points. On the season this team is only producing 34.1% successful offensive plays. Iowa State is allowing just 38.2% successful offensive plays, and that is against a seven point tougher schedule than the Jayhawks.

PLAY IOWA STATE

311 Northern Illinois at Akron

Huskies have played a four point tougher schedule and still post better advantaged numbers than the Zips. Northern is also fresher playing its second game after a bye while Akron plays its fifth. Northern has a clear advantage defensively allowing just 34.1% success rate on the season. The Huskies are also better in the trenches when looking at the sack rate.

Akron does have a pretty good defense allowing just 37.0% successful plays, but that offense is putrid at a 32.1% success rate. The Zips have really struggled to put points on the board against much worse stop units, can’t count on them here against the best defense it has played.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

254 Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Only once all season have the Browns scored more than 23 points in regulation, and that was against the defensive inept Raiders. That is especially hard to comprehend with a season turnover margin of +10. In the earlier meeting, a 21-21 tie, the Browns were +5 in turnovers. To not win a game with a plus five turnover margin is historic. 

Pittsburgh has produced an offensive success percentage of 42% or higher in every game this season, the Browns did it once all year. The Steelers have a +13 sack margin on the season. The Browns have permitted 15 sacks in the past three games. Look for the Steelers to control the trenches and win this one going away.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

261 Seattle at Detroit

The Seahawks stand at 3-3 on the season, despite playing only twice at home all year. Off last week after pounding the Raiders in London. This team has had solid success on the road with a 2-1 mark, with the losses coming by 3 at Denver and 7 at Chicago. Those two games opened the season and the Seahawks have been much better as of late.

Detroit is also 3-3 on the year and have won 3 of the last 4 games. But this is a team that is just 2-4 in the successful play percentage stat. On the season 50.2% of opponent plays have been successful. Not the number we want to back from a favorite.

PLAY SEATTLE

252 Philadelphia & Jacksonville in London

Too much of a line move based on recent final scores. The Eagles are 3-4 on the season with wins over Atlanta, Indianapolis and the NY Giants, three teams currently out of the playoff race. Philadelphia has lost the successful play percentage in every game this season! This is not a team that deserves to be favored here.

Jacksonville has traveled to England three times already while this will be the first trip for Philadelphia. While the Eagles will be sightseeing, Jacksonville will be hard at work to turn around a recent three game losing streak. The Jaguars are -6 on the season in turnover margin, which plays a big part in its poor performance. This defense remains the best unit on the field Sunday. We will gladly take the points with what we still consider the better team.

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

135 Illinois at Maryland

The last two weeks the Illini was a 10 1/2 point home underdog to Purdue, and a 24 point underdog at Wisconsin. If you switch the home field ratings for the Purdue game Illinois would have been at most 15 1/2. Now we find a Maryland team that is far worse laying an inflated number. By our stats Illinois has played a two point tougher schedule than the Terrapins, yet the successful play data only shows Maryland to be about eight points better on a neutral field. This is just too high of a line to not get involved. Maryland gave Rutgers just five points more on this field just two weeks ago. Say what you will about Lovie Smith’s team, it’s not comparable to Rutgers.

PLAY ILLINOIS

191 Cincinnati at SMU

The Bearcats had its undefeated season end a week ago with an overtime loss to Temple. We were on the Owls in that game and felt we were lucky to get that victory. Even in a loss the Bearcats held a very good Temple team to only 26% successful offensive plays. In fact, on the season Cincinnati is allowing just 30.7% of offensive plays to be successful. While not playing a who’s who of explosive offenses, I don’t care who you played those defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the Bearcats take on another weak offensive team in SMU. The Mustangs have played a 13 point tougher schedule, but the offense still remains subpar. A 28.4% successful play rate on offense just doesn’t inspire much confidence no matter the opposition. We have no problem laying a small number on the road with the much superior stop unit of the Bearcats.

PLAY CINCINNATI

194 Vanderbilt at Arkansas

Third road game is four weeks for the Commodores who have a bye week on deck. This team just played the three physical defenses of Kentucky, Florida and Georgia. Now it’s installed as a road favorite at Arkansas. Keep in mind Vandy is 2-16 straight up on the SEC road. 

Arkansas has played a one point tougher schedule and the success rates are exactly the same. Arkansas has struggled against very good offenses like Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. That hasn’t been the case when stepping down in class. The wrong team is favored here as our number shows Arkansas by a field goal.

PLAY ARKANSAS

109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern

Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points.

Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest.

PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE

106 Toledo at Western Michigan

This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan.

The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

470 New Orleans at Baltimore

The Saints have faced a very weak schedule of passing defenses this season. The Ravens excel in stopping passing offenses. On the other hand Baltimore is much more pass oriented this season and the Saints are very weak against the pass. Overall no opponent has had a better than 48% success rate offensively against this Baltimore defense. With the Ravens playing its only home game is a five week span, we will lay the small number with the host.

PLAY BALTIMORE

405 USC at Utah

Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad.

Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor.

PLAY USC

389 NC State at Clemson

Yes this is a big step up in class for the Wolfpack, but the results the last two years show us NC State can make this a game. Back to back seven point losses including one in overtime have the Wolfpack entering this contest with great confidence. This club is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS vs FBS competition, and has an NFL ready quarterback. 

Clemson has what many feel is the best defensive line in college football. But State has only been sacked once all season. It has an 11-1 sack advantage while Clemson’s is 17-8. Two great lines do battle and NC State holds their own in the trenches. Both defenses are outstanding and we expect this to be a lower scoring contest. With points at a premium this line is way too high.

PLAY NC STATE

321 Virginia at Duke

Only road game in a six week span for the Cavaliers. Virginia has won the past three meetings in this series, with the spreads being 3 1/2 or less. Which is one of the reasons we are looking to take the higher number here with the visitor. The victory over Miami Florida last week wasn’t a fluke. Virginia was even in turnovers in that game, had the higher early down success rate, and the better offensive play success rate. 

Duke is a quality team but doesn’t deserve to be this high a favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Two of its wins this year came against option based teams. In the other two FBS wins the team took advantage of a combined +4 turnover margin. 

PLAY VIRGINIA

314 Cincinnati at Temple

Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. 

Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now.

PLAY TEMPLE

339 Buffalo at Toledo

We missed the best number on this one, but we still have plenty of value to fade what could be the most disappointing team in college football. Buffalo has a huge advantage at the point of attack. The Bulls have a 16-4 sack advantage, while Toledo is down 17-4. You likely won’t see a bigger discrepancy in any game this year. While the offenses are similarly productive, the Bulls only allow a 36.6% success rate on defense. The Bulls are 3-0 straight up on the road including a 36-29 win at Temple. These two programs are heading in opposite directions.

PLAY BUFFALO

309 Air Force at UNLV

Now that this line has dropped it’s time to step in with the Falcons. In last years meeting Air Force wore down the Rebels as the game progressed, outscoring UNLV 27-3 in the second half. We expect more of the same here. While the Flyboys offense isn’t quite as good as a season ago, we like what this defense has been doing. The last two games Air Force has held the opposition to 20 and 32% successful offensive plays. Overall 28 combined points allowed against Navy and San Diego State.

The Rebels have now played two games without its starting quarterback. The Teams been outscored in that time 109-42. During that period the defense permitted 55 and 57% successful offensive plays. Just can’t trust this home club who hasn’t posted a winning season record at Sam Boys Stadium since 2013. 

PLAY AIR FORCE

276 Kansas City at New England

The Chiefs are the toast of the town as the young quarterback is being talked about already as a Hall of Fame QB. This despite playing only five games thus far. When handicapping sports it’s very much like the stock market. Buy low and sell high. Obviously the Chiefs are a sell high candidate. As good as this offense has been with a 51.6% successful play rate, the defense is permitting 50.8% successful plays. 

New England has a comparable offense now that more players are healthy. The Pats are successful on 50.2% of offensive plays, while the defense has been a respectable 43.0%. This is also the third straight home game for the Pats, while KC has played in a different city every single week this season.

I have a few handicapping friends who are huge Patriots fans. None of them think the Pats should be a play this week, but they too a man said every time they bet against the Patriots they lose. If die hard fans of the Pats don’t want them, it’s a team we want to be on.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

261 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Biggest game of the season for the Steelers here, as a 2-2-1 start has put Pittsburgh in peril of losing the division. It’s also important to state that one of the tie breakers is record in conference games. With a loss here the Steelers will fall to 0-3-1 vs the AFC while the Bengals will be a perfect 5-0. By strict advanced stats alone Pittsburgh should be a slight favorite in this game, but with the importance of this contest for the visitor, the Steelers are the play. The last four seasons the Steelers have won 13, 11, 10 and 11 games. Many have talked about the changing of the guard in the division, but the Steelers are king until the Ravens or Bengals knock them from its perch. Keep in mind Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 9 games in this series.

While the Bengals offense has been very good with a 51.2% successful play rate, the defense has equally been as bad with a 51.0% number. The Bengals at 4-1 on the season are not in a desperate situation here. While the Steelers have a bye week on deck. This is an all in game for the visitor.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

264 Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Bucs are off a bye, while the Falcons are trying to break a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle the past two games by a combined 6. Which means that we expect this offense to be somewhat conservative coming off the bye week. While the Bucs offense has been good, the defense has permitted 40 points or more in half its games. Overall 55.8% of opponent plays have been graded successful against the Buccaneers.

This is a huge game for the Falcons who cannot afford another divisional loss. Basically if Atlanta loses here at home it has to start thinking about next year. Atlanta takes care of the ball much better than the Bucs. Despite the poor record this team has yet to lose a turnover battle. The Falcons are the better team even with the defensive injuries. We will back them here at a very fair number.

PLAY ATLANTA

124 Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina

Terrible spot for the Warhawks who are playing its third straight road game, and fifth in the last six weeks. The last two games have been losses by 49 and 32 points, as ULM continues to have major defensive problems. On the season this team is allowing 56.6% of opponent offensive plays to be successful. 

Coastal Carolina is 2-2 SU & ATS on the season against FBS opposition. This is only the second FBS home game for the Chanticleers who beat UAB 47-24 earlier. Coastal is also off a bye week, so this team should be much fresher than its opposition. Let’s lay the short number here with the Chanticleers.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

121 Texas A&M at South Carolina

This Aggies team is much better than its 3-2 SU record in FBS games suggest. Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS despite losing the turnover battle by a combined six through five games. While this team is known for its offense the defense is allowing just 35.9% of plays to be successful. More impressive when you consider it has faced Clemson and Alabama, the two best teams in the country.

South Carolina was expected to be very good this year, and are doing pretty well themselves. But our numbers show that defensively this team is virtually average, as opposed to the stout defense that many expected. Coming off a hard fought back and forth game against Missouri, will the Gamecocks have the defense to take down the Aggies? We think not.

PLAY TEXAS A&M

162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois

Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses.

Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

183 Central Florida at Memphis

We really expected the Knights to take a step back this season after losing Scott Frost to Nebraska. But that hasn’t been the case with UCF going 4-0 SU & ATS vs FBS opposition. The Knights have permitted just two sacks all season, and have allowed just 36.7% successful offensive plays. The Knights are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the past 2+ seasons. 

This is a huge revenge game for the Tigers who lost to the Knights 62-55 in double overtime last season. But if you’ve watched Memphis this year it’s clear this isn’t the same quality team. The Tigers have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the country. Navy, Georgia State, South Alabama, Tulane and Connecticut. None of those teams are any good, including the Midshipmen who are way down from previous editions. 

The revenge situation will bring money to the Tigers, but UCF is clearly the much better team. Despite the extremely weak schedule Memphis has allowed 11 sacks which producing just 9. 

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

185 Tennessee at Auburn

The Volunteers have played three of the best teams in the country, West Virginia, Florida and Georgia. They enter this game with a -9 turnover margin in FBS contests. But this team is off a bye and now catch over two touchdowns against one of the worst offenses in the power five conferences.

Defensively the Tigers are really good, but this offense has done nothing all season. How about a 36.4% successful offensive play percentage. This from a team that has only played one true road game all season. Only once all season in FBS competition this team has scored more than 24 points. This line is way too high in what is expected to be a low scoring game.

PLAY TENNESSEE

111 Arizona at Utah

This Arizona offense isn’t nearly as explosive as a year ago. Mainly because QB Khalil Tate isn’t able to run like in the past. But with the offense being more conservative the defense has improved by leaps and bounds. 

Utah is coming off back to back conference road games before facing the Wildcats here on a short week. Next week the Utes host traditional league power USC. In looking at successful offensive plays Utah has been below FBS average in all but one game this season, last week at Stanford. So right now the Utes enter this game priced higher than at any time this season. On a short week after its biggest victory of the season. Utah is only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, tough to lay this number without offensive explosion ability.

ARIZONA

105 Texas Tech at TCU

Both teams are coming into this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position. As injuries have affected both starters. But the backups have seen significant time, so we are not worried about who is or isn’t behind center. 

TCU has had a major problem taking care of the football this season. In four FBS games the Horned Frogs have a -10 turnover margin. This is also a team that has struggled in early down success rate, producing just 59.5% on first downs on first or second down. 

Texas Tech on the other hand has been much more efficient at 72.8% early down success rate. The Red Raiders have gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma State 41-17 as a 14 1/2 point underdog, the only true road game TT has played this season. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Kliff Kingsbury the past 3+ seasons. We have this game lined more in the field goal range, which gives us plenty of value on the road underdog.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

467 Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers

While many will feel the Raiders were lucky last week when the refs did not award the Browns the football on a clear fumble recovery. Keep in mind Oakland had a bad break happen to them when Marshawn Lynch broke a tackle and looked like a possible touchdown run, only to see the refs blew the whistle for progress being impeded. The Raiders receivers dropped many passes that should have been caught. In fact, Oakland had a 47% successful plays offense, compared to 41% for the Browns. On the season the Raiders are successful on a whopping 53.8% of offensive plays.

The Chargers survived against a 49ers team playing without it’s clearly best quarterback. Still San Francisco had a slightly better early down success rate, as well as a 47% to 46% offensive play success rate. That’s not the type of numbers you would expect from a ten point favorite playing at home. The Chargers defense is allowing 53.3% successful plays defensively on the season, that’s close to Tampa Bay territory. In a high scoring game we will back the better defense catching points.

PLAY OAKLAND

466 Miami at Cincinnati

The Dolphins were exposed by the Patriots on Sunday, and we expect more hard times for the team down south. Despite a 3-1 record Miami has been outscored on the season. The Dolphins have yet to lose the turnover battle. But the telling stat comes from success rates. Miami’s offense produces just 38.5% success, while allowing 47.8%. Last week Miami had just two explosive plays while permitting ten. We want no part of the Dolphins in this price range.

Cincinnati has played 3 of 4 games on the road, and have still outscored the opposition by 13 points. The Bengals have yet to lose the sack battle, and have produced a 53.0% offensive success rate. 

PLAY CINCINNATI

409 Nebraska at Wyoming

Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. 

Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. 

Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game.

PLAY NEBRASKA

379 UAB at Louisiana Tech

The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage.

Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire.

PLAY UAB

313 South Alabama at Georgia Southern

Third straight road game for the Jaguars. But this is a major drop down in talent after trips to Oklahoma State, Memphis and Appalachian State. It’s also shutout revenge time for South Alabama who lost at Georgia Southern 52-0 last year in the final game of the regular season. While the Jaguars offense has struggled, the defense has played very well considering the strength of the opposition. Allowing 43.8% of opposing plays to be successful, which is right about league average. In fact, despite the 1-4 record the Jaguars are holding their own in line play as they own 11 sacks while allowing just 10.

Georgia Southern has cashed all three FBS games this season, but much of that has to do with a +4 turnover advantage. On the season this team is averaging just 38.9% successful offensive plays. In the trenches it’s a 7 to 7 sack rate. With a 52-0 victory against this club fresh in their minds, and a Thursday night showdown on deck vs Texas State, we can see the Eagles looking past the opposition here. Too many points considering the advanced stats and the situation.

PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA

398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas

The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. 

Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role.

PLAY TEXAS

335 Missouri at South Carolina

Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. 

While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad.

PLAY MISSOURI

373 Northwestern at Michigan State

This is too many points to lay in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Last years contest went to triple overtime before the Wildcats prevailed 39-31. Pat Fitzgerald has been simply amazing in Evanston when installed as a road underdog. With the outright win at Purdue earlier the Wildcats are 24-9 ATS catching points on the road the last 10+ seasons. 

Michigan State was highly thought of coming into the season, but we never really bought into it. And it’s proven out on the field as Michigan State simply hasn’t dominated against weaker opposition. Despite playing Utah State, Arizona State, Indiana and Central Michigan, the Spartans are only up 117-88. That’s as a combined 62 1/2 combined point favorite. The only somewhat dominant performance was last week against a lower division MAC team, and the Spartans failed to cover by 17 points. With a major trip to Penn State on deck we can’t see the Spartans running away with this one.

PLAY NORTHWESTERN

261 NY Jets at Jacksonville

Extra time to prepare for the Jets who let one slip away Thursday against the Browns. While New York lost that game 21-17 keep in mind it had a -3 turnover disadvantage. So the Jets failed to cover by a single point while turning the ball over three times more than the Browns. New York has outscored the opposition 77-58 despite being -1 in turnover differential and -5 in sacks differential. When looking at successful play percent New York is averaging 47.3% while allowing just 39.7%. Those are some pretty good numbers for a team in this price range. 

Jacksonville is 2-1 on the season with wins over the Giants and Patriots. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league. The defense has been stout as always but the offense has been a disappointment. 

The Jets have won 20 games combined the last three seasons, but are a perfect 2-0 against the Jags. Winning last year as a 3 1/2 point underdog in overtime, and in 2015 28-23. Jacksonville has played three disappointing teams this season, the Jets have a better future than any of them.

PLAY NY JETS

264 Tampa Bay at Chicago

The Bucs continue to put points on the board, but is this team a bit overrated because of that offensive success? Keep in mind Tampa Bay is traveling on a short week after the supposed statement game Monday night against the Steelers. The defense has allowed 91 points to three teams that have not met preseason expectations. The Bucs have permitted an average of 54.3% successful plays, so what the offense produces the defense more than surrenders.

The Bears are 2-1 on the season with the lone loss being the opening week fold job against the Packers. The Chicago defense has been nothing but outstanding thus far. Allowing just 18.3 points per game and holding the opposition to just 39% successful plays. Mitch Trubisky is catching a lot of flak, but the teams offense isn’t bad at all. Much better defense gets the cover here.

PLAY CHICAGO

255 Cincinnati at Atlanta

Really like the way these Bengals have started the season. Cincinnati has won the early down success rate in all three games, 79-54%, 79-68% and 84-74% last week. When looking at play success rate this team has produced 52.7% offensively, while allowing 50.3%. 

The Falcons are just 12-20 ATS as a home favorite going back to the 2012 season. This home field edge isn’t nearly as big as you were led to believe. Despite playing 2 of 3 games at home this year, the Falcons are permitting 50.7% of opponent plays to be successful, while producing just 47.7%. This is the third straight home game for the Falcons, which usually results in a higher scoring game. That said we prefer the visitor in this matchup better.

PLAY CINCINNATI  

164 Arkansas State at Georgia Southern

The Red Wolves are 2-1 in FBS action this year with the only loss coming at Alabama. Pretty impressive. Or is it? The 29-20 win at Tulsa showed a 44.9-41.5% successful play advantage for the Golden Hurricane. The reason Ark State won was a +2 turnover margin. Even last week in a non-covering 27-20 win over UNLV the Red Wolves needed a +3 turnover margin. Since turnovers are worth roughly 5 points, both of those victories could have and probably should have been loses. This is also the third road game in four weeks for this squad.

Georgia Southern had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, coming after a 31 point loss at Clemson. But the Golden Eagles have cashed both games against FBS competition this year, by a combined 20 points. After a disappointing 2-10 season under first year coach Chad Lunsford, this team is primed to get back to its past success. The Eagles had won 5 or more games in each of the previous nine seasons. With an extra week to prepare and having double revenge this game has been circled in Statesboro.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

197 Coastal Carolina at Troy

The Chanticleers have been pretty impressive in the early going with a 2-1 FBS mark. The only loss was at South Carolina, which is a very good team this year. Even in that defeat Coastal Carolina managed a strong 90% early down success rate against that stout defense. 

Troy’s is a bit overrated right now after back to back road wins at Nebraska and Louisiana Monroe. Despite a 2-1 SU & ATS mark the Trojans have permitted a 48.1% success rate while only producing a 39.9% mark themselves. The team won the turnover margin in both victories. With a short week on deck at it hosts Georgia State on Thursday, we see this as a great spot to fade the Trojans.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

117 Kent State at Ball State

Yes it’s the third straight road game for Kent State, but it’s also the first conference game of the season. The Golden Flashes have been at its best as a road dog with a 13-8 spread mark. Which is pretty impressive considering Kent has a 25-51 straight up record in that time frame. Kent State is already 2-0 ATS when losing the turnover battle, which tells us this team is vastly underrated. 

Ball State remains winless against FBS competition. A good amount of this line is based on the Cardinals good showing at Notre Dame. But keep in mind that was a major flat spot for the Irish after knocking off Michigan with an SEC opponent on deck. Getting this line in this price range is a bargain.

PLAY KENT STATE

211 Arkansas at Texas A&M

We’ve been anti Arkansas and pro Texas A&M all season, and yet we can’t get anywhere near this high a number for this contest. Sports betting is a pendulum where there is a right number for every game. And this one tells us it’s time to back the ugly dog. There was no excuse to lose to a bad Colorado State team, but the Razorbacks had the higher early down success rate in that game 83-71%, as well as the better successful play rate 46.7-41.1%. While losing to North Texas and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed about as those two teams have been bet on squads. A combined -7 turnover margin kept the Razorbacks from cashing in those contests.

These teams have met in each of the last nine seasons with the highest spread being 14 points. A&M enters this contest in a tough scheduling spot. Off Alabama and with Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn to come. All very good teams that A&M will have problems with. This is the only game Texas A&M will play all season on artificial turf, as it’s a neutral site game in Arlington. Just too many points to lay here for the Aggies.

PLAY ARKANSAS

127 Temple at Boston College

Extra time to prepare for the Owls after beating Tulsa last Thursday. Temple is a nice 13-6 ATS as a road underdog the past 5+ seasons. In three FBS games this team owns a +11 sack ratio, allowing only two sacks during those games. This defense has been outstanding holding the opposition to just 33.1% successful offensive plays. 

Boston College came into the season with a lot of hype, and started the year 3-0. But last week at Purdue was a wake up call, especially for this offense that only produced 29.3% successful plays. Wins over Massachusetts, Holy Cross and Wake Forest don’t look as impressive now as it did at the time. In a projected to be low scoring game, catching double digits is even more of a bargain.

PLAY TEMPLE

107 UCLA at Colorado

Both teams enter this Friday contest off byes last week. UCLA still has not tasted victory with losses to Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State. There is a very real possibility that all three of those teams will be bowling this December. While the UCLA offense is a concern the defense has impressed us. Looking beyond the final scores we see that the Bruins are holding the opposition to just 60% on early down success rate. Just 6 out of ten first downs have been attained on first and second down. That indicates that the defense is much better than what the scoreboard has shown. Despite playing three good football teams, the opposition has only been successful on 45.2% of offensive plays. While that’s higher than league average, it’s much more in line with the early down success rate than the scoreboard.

As opposed to the Bruins, Colorado has had an easy schedule of FBS competition. Playing just Colorado State and Nebraska, two teams really struggling out of the gate. Colorado is +2 in turnover advantage, and have lost the sack battle 7 to 5. This is a team that has looked good against inferior competition. The last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 10, 4 and 3 points in double overtime. We look for this to be another tight contest.

PLAY UCLA

102 Minnesota at LA Rams

Did the Vikings just sleepwalk through that Buffalo game last week or is there really a problem? Did they look past the Bills in order to prepare for this game? The answer is very likely to both. Through three games the Vikings are a slightly better than average team by play success rates. The team has also allowed a higher early down success rate than their own. The Vikings have allowed six more explosive plays than it produced itself. Those are pretty pedestrian numbers, especially considering that there is a good chance none of the three teams it played will make the postseason.

The Rams have been otherworldly which is why we like them so much in this Thursday night affair. Not only do the Rams not have to travel, this is the third straight home game. Minnesota on the other hand has to travel two time zones on a short week. Los Angeles has been dominant no matter how you slice it. While the offense is getting all the credit, the defense has been outstanding. How about allowing 36 total points and an average of just 40.7% successful plays. 

This is the same system that provided us with the Browns winner last Thursday. Hopefully it won’t need such a comeback.

PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS

484 Chicago at Arizona

The betting markets are now showing Chicago getting a whopping 74% of the bets despite this line being bet down. A team off the rare opportunity to win on Monday Night Football, traveling cross country to be a sizable road favorite. Needless to say this team right now is fat and happy. Keep in mind the Bears have been a road favorite just once in the past 4+ seasons. 

Just three weeks ago the Cardinals were a 2 point home favorite over Washington. That would mean Chicago is laying more than a touchdown more than the Redskins, a team I have equal power rating wise. Teams that have shut down offensively for two straight weeks have been terrific the following game. While Arizona has struggled thus far, this is a great spot for an offensive turnaround. Keep in mind the Bears are just 2-15 straight up on the road the past 2+ seasons. Don’t get caught in this trap.

PLAY ARIZONA

473 Oakland at Miami

Because of the early season scheduling we are getting the better team here catching the key number of 3. The Raiders are 0-2 but faced the Rams and Broncos, while the 2-0 Dolphins faced the Titans and Jets. Oakland has a -2 turnover disadvantage, while Miami is +2. The Raiders had 50 and 60% successful offensive plays the first two weeks, while allowing just 52 and 45%. Tennessee on the other hand had 57% and 35% successful offensively, but allowed 40 and 52% defensively. So Oakland had the better success numbers despite playing the tougher slate. The Raiders also are in more of a need situation as it likely can’t fall to 0-3 and make the playoffs. The 2-0 Dolphins on the other hand travel to face New England next week in what could be its most important game of the season. Keep in mind under Adam Tase the Dolphins are only 1-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, as Miami consistently underperforms in the home favorite role, just 12-29-2 since 2008.

PLAY OAKLAND

412 Eastern Michigan at San Diego State

Long travel scenario for the Eagles who haven’t played in the Pacific Time Zone in at least 20 years. The Eagles have 10 time revenge against Northern Illinois on deck, so we don’t know how much preparation this Chris Creighton team has put into this game. Since it’s the third straight road game this club may use this week as a mini vacation in beautiful California. 

The Aztecs defense has performed well against Stanford and Arizona State out of the PAC 12. Hosting the Cardinal to only 30.6% successful plays and the Sun Devils to just 41.4%. The offense is right around league average despite being underdogs in both those games. With a bye on deck before a big showdown with Boise State, this is a great spot play on the host.

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

383 Louisiana Tech at LSU

Rare chance for the Bulldogs to play big brother in the state of Louisiana. The last time these two met was in 2009, a 14 1/2 point cover for La Tech. The Bulldogs are off a bye while the Tigers pulled the road upset over rival Auburn. Skip Holtz is a solid 6-2 ATS as a 20 point or more underdog at Louisiana Tech. He’s also 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of any number the past 4+ seasons. His team is also 6-4 ATS vs Power Five Conferences since taking over the Bulldogs in 2013. 

LSU beat both Miami Florida and Auburn, but had a +4 turnover advantage in those two games. This is obviously a sandwich game for LSU with Mississippi on deck after playing Auburn. The Tigers are now 0-4 ATS as a 20+ favorite in the last year plus under Ed Orgeron. Great spot here to fade the public favorite.

PLAY LOUISIANA TECH

377 UNLV at Arkansas State

Is this the year UNLV finally returns a winning record? It’s first since 2013 and only winning mark in the last decade. We believe it’s a strong possibility as the defense looks much improved. Offensively the offense produced 71.8% successful plays against UTEP, the worst program in the FBS. But it’s still impressive against anyone. Under Tony Sanchez the one positive role has been as road dog with a 12-4 spread mark including the cover earlier at USC.

Arkansas State returns home after playing at Alabama and Tulsa. Even with a +2 turnover margin in those games the Red Wolves were outscored 77-36. When measuring successful play percentages this team has produced 32.3% while allowing 56.8%. Obviously Arkansas State wasn’t expected to compete with Alabama, but it took a +2 turnover margin to win at Tulsa. Not sure this Sun Belt squad is good enough to beat what we consider to be at least an average Mountain West Conference team by a margin.

PLAY UNLV

315 Charlotte at Massachusetts

After a 1-11 season a year ago we like what Brad Lambert and his squad have done this season in Charlotte. In its short history in the FBS this program has won just one less game on the road than at Jerry Richardson Stadium. So we get the team in the preferred road underdog role against a team without much of a home field advantage.

Massachusetts hasn’t won more than two home games in any season since 2010. Under Mark Whipple the Minutemen have been favorites just 11 times in four plus seasons. UMass returns home off a very rare three game road trip, losing at Boston College, Georgia Southern and FIU. Defensively this is one of if not the worst defense in the nation. The opposition has produced 63.6, 55.4 and 69.1% successful plays against the Minutemen. While Charlotte doesn’t have an explosive offense, they can move the ball at will against this squad. Tough to lay over a touchdown when you can’t stop anyone.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

344 Notre Dame at Wake Forest

What has happened to this Irish offense? Last year it averaged 34.2 points per game. This season it has scored 24, 24 and 22 points. More telling is the lack of success in offensive plays. Just 33.3, 41.7 and 44.6% of plays have been successful. Tough to lay points in the road favorite role with an offense that is struggling. 

Wake Forest has faced two FBS squads and put up better success percentage numbers than both Tulane and Boston College. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are at a -3 turnover disadvantage in those games. Under Dave Clawson Wake has been a very good home underdog and this is the third straight home game for the Deacs. No way the Irish remain in the Top 10 after this week.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

302 NY Jets at Cleveland

The Jets took advantage of a tell from Matt Stafford in the opener and won big on Monday Night Football. Then on a short week had to host a division rival and didn’t have the same success against the Dolphins. Now on another short week the team travels to Cleveland. 

The Browns remain winless but managed to cover both games, against far tougher opponents than the Jets have faced. To hold the Steelers and Saints to 21 points each in a total of nine quarters is impressive. The short week will expose the Jets rookie QB, as no additional plays will be able to be added to the playbook. This gives the Cleveland defense plenty of chances to force turnovers, which it has in abundance the first two games.

PLAY CLEVELAND

281 Detroit at San Francisco

Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. 

San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. 

PLAY DETROIT

263 Carolina at Atlanta

The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years.

Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high.

PLAY CAROLINA

273 Miami at NY Jets

Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.

The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. 

PLAY MIAMI

265 Minnesota at Green Bay

We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. 

Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears.

PLAY MINNESOTA

158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois

We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7.

Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame

The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. 

Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here.

PLAY UNDER

119 Kent State at Penn State

We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football.

Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close.

PLAY KENT STATE

129 Troy at Nebraska

Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class.

Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. 

PLAY TROY

460 Buffalo at Baltimore

Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season.

The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one.

PLAY BALTIMORE

456 San Francisco at Minnesota

No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back.

Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early.

PLAY MINNESOTA

362 Maryland at Bowling Green

The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. 

Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

341 North Carolina at East Carolina

Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. 

East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

346 Buffalo at Temple

This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. 

But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. 

PLAT TEMPLE

309 Western Michigan at Michigan

The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons.

Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

219 Virginia Tech at Florida State

Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. 

We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago.

But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further.

PLAY OVER

215 Navy at Hawaii

The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely.

Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low.

PLAY NAVY

144 Syracuse at Western Michigan

The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. 

Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. 

Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. 

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

139 Wake Forest at Tulane

The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. 

Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. 

Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

101 Philadelphia & New England in Minnesota

The Patriots haven’t had great success winning Super Bowl’s by margins. That looks to be something that holds true here. A lot of the reason for the Patriot’s success over the last two decades is playing in the worst division in football. If New England takes care of business against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it can very easily get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. When having to go on the road and win in the postseason the Pats are simply not the same team.

Philadelphia has the best unit on the field, its defense. And the offense can move the ball on a Pats defense that is rather weak considering the level of competition it played this season. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Here are five props we played in the offshore market at the same well known sports book. We could give you a ton of worthy plays in Las Vegas, but since most don’t live here it would be a waste of our time.

1st Score TD -158

Total FG Under 3.5 -135

Total FG Under 4.5 -325

No Safety -1058

Winning margin exactly 3 No -437

As I mentioned, you can get these and others at much better prices if you are in Vegas. If so, shop around. 

313 Minnesota at Philadelphia

Better get this one up now before any more money comes in on the host. Simply put we want no part of a dome team playing on the road outside in the playoffs. It’s been a terrible situation historically and we saw it again last week with Atlanta. Home field means so much in this matchup, and to catch the host as an underdog is a no brainer. Foles has a history of being a productive quarterback over the years and his short sample size this season has given us strong line value.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. 

Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

302 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Too much is being made about the quarterback advantage for the Falcons here. It’s just one position on the field and it’s getting too much play in this line. The best unit on the field is the Philadelphia defense. The Eagles are also playing at home off a bye week. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside in cold weather on a strong home field for the host. While Ryan wins the QB battle, the Eagles win the game.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

102 Tennessee at Kansas City

We want no part of the Titans today playing on the road. There were two teams in the playoffs that were outscored in the regular season, Buffalo and Tennessee. Mariota has been a turnover machine, especially on the road.

Kansas City doesn’t turn the ball over and wins with defense and running the ball. Smith has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season by quarterback rating. He’s been able to extend the field by throwing longer passes this season. This line is being held down somewhat by the Chiefs prior playoff failures. While that may be the case in following weeks it’s not going to prevent KC in this matchup.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

128 Seattle at Dallas

The Seahawks have scored a combined 17 first half points over the last four games. They continually play from behind because the defense is battered and bruised. It’s just not the same healthy defense that has been so dominant the past few seasons. The loss to the Rams last week was totally embarrassment, which you would expect a rebound from. But keep in mind that this is a team that entered the season expecting to go deep into the playoffs. Now it’s virtually shutout of the postseason. What type of effort will the players give knowing it has nothing to play for.

Dallas gets Zeke back today and other than a quarterback he’s the most valuable skill position player in the league. In his last six games before the suspension the Boys scored 28, 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points. With him out of the lineup Dallas averaged 18.3 ppg. The defense has held the opposition to 17, 10 and 14 points the past three weeks. This is a cheap number for the Cowboys.

PLAY DALLAS

306 LA Chargers at Kansas City

The Chargers have dropped seven straight games to Kansas City, yet are now a slight favorite on the road. While this team has won 7 of 9 games, those wins came against questionable opposition. Victories against the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Browns and Redskins. Very likely all teams that will not make the playoffs. 

Kansas City on the other hand has beaten the likes of the Patriots, Eagles and these very same Chargers by a score of 24-10 on the road. The better team at home in a basically pick ‘em game? Sign us up.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama

Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. 

Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. 

The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination.

PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

201 North Texas & Troy in New Orleans

Some money is coming in on the Mean Green here and we fully agree. We get the team from the better conference as an underdog, and if the Mean Green take care of the football the stats show this game to be a coin flip. North Texas has an explosive offense which can trade points with anyone. 

Troy just won the Sun Belt with a 32-25 victory over Arkansas State. Many will remember the shocker it pulled off at LSU beating the Tigers 24-21. But despite a solid overall record this team played a very easy schedule. 

We will take the points here in a game that should be an exciting bank and forth showdown.

PLAY NORTH TEXAS

114 Oakland at Kansas City

Despite winning 3 of its last 4 games we aren’t buying into the Raiders who enter this contest having played the easiest schedule in the league. Wins over the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins aren’t much to write home about. The last time these two met was a Thursday Night Football win for the Raiders at home 31-30. The host on these early week games has a sizable advantage so once again we found the Raiders in a favorable position.

Now with Kansas City entering this game having lost 6 of 7, we get to back the better team with the far better coach at a discount. With three straight home games for the Chiefs Kansas City can take advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

130 Dallas at NY Giants

Dallas beat the Giants 19-3 in the season opener, but the Cowboys have faded badly since. The offense has really been affected with the suspension on Elliott, and his absence has hurt the overall productivity of Prescott. Keep in mind heading into last week this team had scored 6, 9 and 7 points, and is now a road favorite.

Make no mistake the Giants are not a good football team, but the coaching change can’t do anything but help. The players didn’t respect McAdoo and really were against the Manning benching a week ago. With Philadelphia on deck we really expect the players to exceed expectations in this game. 

PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS

102 New Orleans at Atlanta

The last four years the team that won the first game of this series also won the second game. This should be easy. Until you realize there are only four weeks left in the season and these two have yet to meet this year. A strange scheduling situation indeed. 

The Saints have been terrific this year and just knocked off Carolina for the season sweep. New Orleans has won 9 of 10 games heading into this matchup. But the short week does bring some problems even though the trip is short to Atlanta. The Saints now have a virtual two game lead on second place Carolina after winning the tie breaker. New Orleans still has the Jets and Bucs on the schedule, so beating Atlanta here isn’t a priority.

The Falcons on the other hand trail the Saints by two full games, and a loss here would be devastating if a division title is the goal. Even for a wild card this is a game Atlanta has to have. Off a home loss to Minnesota we are catching the host with more on the line here. This is also the third straight home game for the Falcons. With Seattle at 8-4 and Carolina also 8-4, this team simply cannot fall to 7-6 and make the postseason. It’s all in for the host and we will join them.

PLAY ATLANTA

359 Denver at Miami

Now that the quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Trevor Siemian, we will look to back a Broncos team which has hit rock bottom. It’s now clear that the Broncos have the best chance to win behind this quarterback. He performed well this year when his surrounding players were healthy. That’s the case again here as Denver has finally gotten key pieces back in the lineup. 

Miami continues to struggle offensively while making mediocre offenses look good. Carolina with 45, Oakland with 27, the Jets with 28, Tampa Bay with 30 and Baltimore with 40 just in the past few weeks. Miami has virtually no home field advantage. We will back the Broncos here who still have the best unit on the field, the Denver defense.

PLAY DENVER

368 Kansas City at NY Jets

The Chiefs are in a freewill losing 5 of 6 with offensive outputs of 10, 9 and 17 the past three games. Opponents are stuffing the run and making Smith throw the ball long, a terrific strategy. KC has dropped three straight on the road to the struggling Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. 

Todd Bowles has gotten more out of his team this year than anyone in the league. This team gives full effort every time out, losing just once all season by double digits way back in week two. New York outplayed Carolina last week and couldn’t get the victory. We expect a better result out of the Jets here, who haven’t left the city since November 12th.

PLAY NY JETS