Cappers Sports Picks

281 Detroit at San Francisco

Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. 

San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. 

PLAY DETROIT

263 Carolina at Atlanta

The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years.

Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high.

PLAY CAROLINA

273 Miami at NY Jets

Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.

The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. 

PLAY MIAMI

265 Minnesota at Green Bay

We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. 

Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears.

PLAY MINNESOTA

158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois

We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7.

Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame

The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. 

Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here.

PLAY UNDER

119 Kent State at Penn State

We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football.

Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close.

PLAY KENT STATE

129 Troy at Nebraska

Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class.

Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. 

PLAY TROY

460 Buffalo at Baltimore

Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season.

The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one.

PLAY BALTIMORE

456 San Francisco at Minnesota

No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back.

Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early.

PLAY MINNESOTA

362 Maryland at Bowling Green

The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. 

Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

341 North Carolina at East Carolina

Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. 

East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

346 Buffalo at Temple

This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. 

But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. 

PLAT TEMPLE

309 Western Michigan at Michigan

The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons.

Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

219 Virginia Tech at Florida State

Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. 

We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago.

But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further.

PLAY OVER

215 Navy at Hawaii

The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely.

Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low.

PLAY NAVY

144 Syracuse at Western Michigan

The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. 

Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. 

Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. 

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

139 Wake Forest at Tulane

The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. 

Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. 

Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

101 Philadelphia & New England in Minnesota

The Patriots haven’t had great success winning Super Bowl’s by margins. That looks to be something that holds true here. A lot of the reason for the Patriot’s success over the last two decades is playing in the worst division in football. If New England takes care of business against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it can very easily get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. When having to go on the road and win in the postseason the Pats are simply not the same team.

Philadelphia has the best unit on the field, its defense. And the offense can move the ball on a Pats defense that is rather weak considering the level of competition it played this season. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Here are five props we played in the offshore market at the same well known sports book. We could give you a ton of worthy plays in Las Vegas, but since most don’t live here it would be a waste of our time.

1st Score TD -158

Total FG Under 3.5 -135

Total FG Under 4.5 -325

No Safety -1058

Winning margin exactly 3 No -437

As I mentioned, you can get these and others at much better prices if you are in Vegas. If so, shop around. 

313 Minnesota at Philadelphia

Better get this one up now before any more money comes in on the host. Simply put we want no part of a dome team playing on the road outside in the playoffs. It’s been a terrible situation historically and we saw it again last week with Atlanta. Home field means so much in this matchup, and to catch the host as an underdog is a no brainer. Foles has a history of being a productive quarterback over the years and his short sample size this season has given us strong line value.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. 

Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

302 Atlanta at Philadelphia

Too much is being made about the quarterback advantage for the Falcons here. It’s just one position on the field and it’s getting too much play in this line. The best unit on the field is the Philadelphia defense. The Eagles are also playing at home off a bye week. Atlanta is a dome team playing outside in cold weather on a strong home field for the host. While Ryan wins the QB battle, the Eagles win the game.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

102 Tennessee at Kansas City

We want no part of the Titans today playing on the road. There were two teams in the playoffs that were outscored in the regular season, Buffalo and Tennessee. Mariota has been a turnover machine, especially on the road.

Kansas City doesn’t turn the ball over and wins with defense and running the ball. Smith has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league this season by quarterback rating. He’s been able to extend the field by throwing longer passes this season. This line is being held down somewhat by the Chiefs prior playoff failures. While that may be the case in following weeks it’s not going to prevent KC in this matchup.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

128 Seattle at Dallas

The Seahawks have scored a combined 17 first half points over the last four games. They continually play from behind because the defense is battered and bruised. It’s just not the same healthy defense that has been so dominant the past few seasons. The loss to the Rams last week was totally embarrassment, which you would expect a rebound from. But keep in mind that this is a team that entered the season expecting to go deep into the playoffs. Now it’s virtually shutout of the postseason. What type of effort will the players give knowing it has nothing to play for.

Dallas gets Zeke back today and other than a quarterback he’s the most valuable skill position player in the league. In his last six games before the suspension the Boys scored 28, 33, 40, 31, 30 and 28 points. With him out of the lineup Dallas averaged 18.3 ppg. The defense has held the opposition to 17, 10 and 14 points the past three weeks. This is a cheap number for the Cowboys.

PLAY DALLAS

306 LA Chargers at Kansas City

The Chargers have dropped seven straight games to Kansas City, yet are now a slight favorite on the road. While this team has won 7 of 9 games, those wins came against questionable opposition. Victories against the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Browns and Redskins. Very likely all teams that will not make the playoffs. 

Kansas City on the other hand has beaten the likes of the Patriots, Eagles and these very same Chargers by a score of 24-10 on the road. The better team at home in a basically pick ‘em game? Sign us up.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama

Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. 

Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. 

The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination.

PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

201 North Texas & Troy in New Orleans

Some money is coming in on the Mean Green here and we fully agree. We get the team from the better conference as an underdog, and if the Mean Green take care of the football the stats show this game to be a coin flip. North Texas has an explosive offense which can trade points with anyone. 

Troy just won the Sun Belt with a 32-25 victory over Arkansas State. Many will remember the shocker it pulled off at LSU beating the Tigers 24-21. But despite a solid overall record this team played a very easy schedule. 

We will take the points here in a game that should be an exciting bank and forth showdown.

PLAY NORTH TEXAS

114 Oakland at Kansas City

Despite winning 3 of its last 4 games we aren’t buying into the Raiders who enter this contest having played the easiest schedule in the league. Wins over the Giants, Broncos and Dolphins aren’t much to write home about. The last time these two met was a Thursday Night Football win for the Raiders at home 31-30. The host on these early week games has a sizable advantage so once again we found the Raiders in a favorable position.

Now with Kansas City entering this game having lost 6 of 7, we get to back the better team with the far better coach at a discount. With three straight home games for the Chiefs Kansas City can take advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

130 Dallas at NY Giants

Dallas beat the Giants 19-3 in the season opener, but the Cowboys have faded badly since. The offense has really been affected with the suspension on Elliott, and his absence has hurt the overall productivity of Prescott. Keep in mind heading into last week this team had scored 6, 9 and 7 points, and is now a road favorite.

Make no mistake the Giants are not a good football team, but the coaching change can’t do anything but help. The players didn’t respect McAdoo and really were against the Manning benching a week ago. With Philadelphia on deck we really expect the players to exceed expectations in this game. 

PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS

102 New Orleans at Atlanta

The last four years the team that won the first game of this series also won the second game. This should be easy. Until you realize there are only four weeks left in the season and these two have yet to meet this year. A strange scheduling situation indeed. 

The Saints have been terrific this year and just knocked off Carolina for the season sweep. New Orleans has won 9 of 10 games heading into this matchup. But the short week does bring some problems even though the trip is short to Atlanta. The Saints now have a virtual two game lead on second place Carolina after winning the tie breaker. New Orleans still has the Jets and Bucs on the schedule, so beating Atlanta here isn’t a priority.

The Falcons on the other hand trail the Saints by two full games, and a loss here would be devastating if a division title is the goal. Even for a wild card this is a game Atlanta has to have. Off a home loss to Minnesota we are catching the host with more on the line here. This is also the third straight home game for the Falcons. With Seattle at 8-4 and Carolina also 8-4, this team simply cannot fall to 7-6 and make the postseason. It’s all in for the host and we will join them.

PLAY ATLANTA

359 Denver at Miami

Now that the quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Trevor Siemian, we will look to back a Broncos team which has hit rock bottom. It’s now clear that the Broncos have the best chance to win behind this quarterback. He performed well this year when his surrounding players were healthy. That’s the case again here as Denver has finally gotten key pieces back in the lineup. 

Miami continues to struggle offensively while making mediocre offenses look good. Carolina with 45, Oakland with 27, the Jets with 28, Tampa Bay with 30 and Baltimore with 40 just in the past few weeks. Miami has virtually no home field advantage. We will back the Broncos here who still have the best unit on the field, the Denver defense.

PLAY DENVER

368 Kansas City at NY Jets

The Chiefs are in a freewill losing 5 of 6 with offensive outputs of 10, 9 and 17 the past three games. Opponents are stuffing the run and making Smith throw the ball long, a terrific strategy. KC has dropped three straight on the road to the struggling Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. 

Todd Bowles has gotten more out of his team this year than anyone in the league. This team gives full effort every time out, losing just once all season by double digits way back in week two. New York outplayed Carolina last week and couldn’t get the victory. We expect a better result out of the Jets here, who haven’t left the city since November 12th.

PLAY NY JETS

310 Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina

The Eagles look like a different team since the coaching change, winning two straight and covering 4 of 5. But despite the improvements in Statesboro we are surprised by this current line. We actually have Coastal favored here based on a great situational spot for the host.

Georgia Southern is now playing its ninth straight week as its last bye happened on September 30th. The Chanticleers on the other hand had last week off after a 13-7 win in Idaho. Now the first year FBS squad can end the season on a two game winning streak by taking care of business at home. On the season Coastal is exactly even in explosive plays, at 44 each way. Georgia Southern on the other hand is -25 on the year, allowing a whopping 58 plays of 20 yards or more. Even in this covering string the Eagles have permitted 25 while accumulating just 16 explosive plays. Last weeks win at Louisiana was the first road win of the season for Georgia Southern, just can’t trust them as a road favorite here.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

257 Buffalo at Kansas City

The Bills players and organization embarrassed themselves last week by putting in a rookie quarterback to start the game. The past three games the Bills refused to give themselves any chance by turning the ball over. Now with the rightful QB back behind center Buffalo has a chance to get back to its drive to make the playoffs. Keep in mind last week Buffalo was +7 with a rookie QB, now the line is higher with Taylor behind center. The Chargers are playing better ball than the Chiefs, yet the line is higher.

Kansas City has lost 4 of its last 5 games with the only victory coming against a Denver team riding what is now a 6 game losing streak. The last four games KC has played the NY Giants, the Cowboys, the Broncos and the Raiders. Every one of those teams have been playing terrible ball. Can’t trust the Chiefs in this price range.

PLAY BUFFALO

261 Carolina at NY Jets

Both teams enter off a bye week but we would much rather back the more talented Panthers squad here. Carolina has three losses on the season, losing to New Orleans and Philadelphia along the way. Carolina has beaten New England and Atlanta. 

The Jets were a major surprise out of the gate winning 3 of 5, but has since dropped 4 of 5. The only good team the Jets beat all season was Jacksonville in overtime. Only once all season has this team surpassed 28 points in a game. The Jets have an extremely tough schedule from here on out. We may have seen the last Jets win this season.

PLAY CAROLINA

198 Clemson at South Carolina

We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four.

South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise.

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

163 Iowa State at Kansas State

Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards.

Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored.

PLAY IOWA STATE

138 South Florida at Central Florida

Likely the most overrated team in the country is the South Florida Bulls. This team has had a cakewalk schedule and lost to the only decent team it played, Houston as a 10 point favorite. The Knights will be much better than any squad this team has faced all year.

This is a double revenge game for UCF after losing to the Bulls each of the last two seasons. While UCF hasn’t played a high quality schedule either, it did beat Memphis, Navy and SMU. UCF has a +39 explosive play advantage on the season, while the Bulls are at +19. A win here and the Knights finish the regular season undefeated. The double revenge angle doesn’t hurt. This team has had this game circled all year. Now its time to show your strengths.

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

130 Navy at Houston

We’ve been disappointed in this Navy team all season. Sure a 6-4 straight up mark is fine, but it pails in comparison to previous editions. A major problem is turnovers. This year in first half the Midshipmen are down 7 turnovers, something hard to imagine for a club that doesn’t throw the ball. In the last nine seasons Navy only had one year it didn’t have a turnover advantage. That was in 2014 when it was -4 on the year. Navy is also at a -7 margin in explosive plays. This team is also off a hard fought rivalry game with Notre Dame with Army on deck.

Houston is the fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before coming up short at Tulane. That should provide all the motivation the Cougars need to end the regular season. Houston is +1 in explosive plays and does a nice job against the run. That’s the key in this matchup as Navy is one-dimensional. Houston lost to Navy last year as a 17 point favorite, so you know this team has had this game circled.

PLAY HOUSTON

113 Mississippi at Mississippi State

These two teams are heading in opposite directions heading into the Egg Bowl. Mississippi is playing much better ball down the stretch of the season, after struggling out of the gate. The Rebels are 2-2 SU with the losses coming by 7 points to Texas A&M and a single point against Arkansas. The offense has improved steadily, while the defense played its best two games of the season the past two weeks. 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs were riding high on a four game winning streak before hosting Alabama. The game was tied at the half and the Crimson Tide dominated late in a 7 point Bulldog loss. Last week this team really struggled against an Arkansas team that had fired its coach and athletic director. The offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as earlier in the year.

Mississippi needs this game to be bowl eligible and looks for revenge after a 55-20 loss at this location last year. Keep in mind the Rebels had won 3 of the four previous meetings with the only defeat coming in overtime. This line is simply too high.

PLAY MISSISSIPPI

101 Kent State at Akron

This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. 

Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. 

Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. 

PLAY KENT STATE

343 Oklahoma at Kansas

Is is possible that the Sooners will have a letdown after facing TCU and Oklahoma State? Most likely. But is Kansas good enough to stop a possibly disinterested foe? Highly unlikely. With just Kansas and West Virginia to end the regular season the Sooners can only help themselves in the committee minds by winning in blowout fashion. 

Here is the season long explosive play numbers for these two teams. Oklahoma 88 to 48. Kansas 32 to 63. That’s a combined 71 explosive play difference for the Sooners. Sure the line is high but keep in mind Kansas has allowed 35 first half points three times this season.Oklahoma has produced 35 or better first half points three times this season. In the last two weeks the Sooners put up 38 first half points against TCU and Oklahoma State. This one should be decided very quickly.

PLAY OKLAHOMA

375 Virginia at Miami Florida

The Cavaliers have really improved from the 2-10 season Bronco Mendenhall had in his first season in Charlottesville. Virginia has won 5 of 8 including beating Boise State and Georgia Tech. 

Miami should be in for a letdown here after facing Notre Dame and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. Keep in mind Miami has a short week ahead as it travels to Pittsburgh next Friday. After beating the Cavaliers the past two seasons we can see the Hurricane being let than focused here. While others vying for the national title have terrific explosive play numbers, Miami is only up 15 on the season. 

PLAY VIRGINIA

385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn

The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers.

This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number.

PLAY ULM

308 Eastern Michigan at Miami Ohio

The Eagles enter play out of the bowl picture after losing to Central Michigan a week ago. This is a team much better than its record, but have not had many breaks go its way this season. Six losses were either by 5 points or less. or in overtime which happened three games this season. In the last month alone Eastern lost two overtime games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Now that the postseason is out of reach we can’t see how this team can right itself for the remaining two games.

While Eastern Michigan is just playing out the string, Miami can still go bowling with wins over Eastern and Ball State. With the starting QB back and healthy we look for the Redhawks to do what it did last year, win late in the season to go bowling. 

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

302 Ohio U at Akron

Huge game in the MAC tonight as a win for Ohio virtually clinches the division, but Akron will have a lot to say about it. History shows low scoring affairs. In fact, the same setup happened a year ago and these teams combined for only 12 points. The prior three seasons saw point totals of 26, 43 and 46 points. With the Zips offense struggling right now Akron will rely on a defense that has been solid all season when not outclassed as it was against Penn State, Iowa State and Toledo. We look for a tight low scoring game with this contest going under the posted total.

PLAY UNDER

273 New England at Denver

Pats defense has held the opposition to 13, 7, 17 and 14 points the past four games. That’s a stark contrast to what the Pats did to begin the season. The bye week should only improve the situation. 

Denver on the other hand have been outscored by 28, 10, 21 and 13 points the last four games. The defense which was so good early is starting to collapse of the weight of carrying this offense. The last three games Denver has produced 3.9, 3.5 and 3.5 first half yards per play. The scoring unit isn’t giving the defense a chance.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

251 Minnesota at Washington

Vikings off a bye after returning from London with a 33-17 win over the Browns. This is actually just the third true road game for Minnesota this year after splitting at Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Vikings have held all but one opponent this season to under 20 points, and this Washington offensive line is banged up. 

The Skins were outgained by 200 yards in last weeks stunner in Seattle. We don’t trust the Skins to be that fortunate this week against the Likes. 

PLAY MINNESOTA

255 Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

Over the last three years the Steelers have beaten the Colts by an average of 24 points per game. Coming in off a bye we see this Steelers offense exploding against the worst defense in football. While many are disappointed with this Pittsburgh offense, keep in mind this team has yet to have a first half drive starting in opponent territory. 

Indy coming off shocker at Houston that had more to do with Tom Savage than anything the Colts accomplished. 

PLAY PITTSBURGH

265 Cleveland at Detroit

Not only are the Browns winless on the season which provides value. But the team is off a bye week while Detroit beat divisional rival Green Bay on Monday Night Football. There likely won’t be a better spot to back the Browns all season. Cleveland has been competitive in 3 of the last 4 games, and actually had a halftime lead against Minnesota.

Detroit has this game sandwiched around divisional rivals, in fact, after playing Green Bay last week they face Chicago and Minnesota the next two weeks. The Lions biggest favorite role this season was -2 hosting Carolina. We look for Detroit to try to  get off the field without injuries and move on to more important games.

PLAY CLEVELAND

151 Wyoming at Air Force

The Cowboys have cashed 9 straight games in this series and are playing the far better ball at the moment. Wyoming has won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming at league leading Boise State. The Cowboy defense has been outstanding holding all but one opponent this year to 24 points or less. The last three games Wyoming has only permitted 6 combined explosive plays of 20 yards or better.

Air Force just had its record broken for the longest streak of games without getting shutout. That was in a 21-0 loss to rival Army. The Falcons are only 2-5 ATS after facing the Cadets. On the season Air Force has permitted 19 more explosive plays than earned, as opposed to the Cowboys who are only -3 on the season.

PLAY WYOMING

209 UAB at UTSA

The amazing season on UAB football continues on Saturday. Things were so bad in Birmingham that the university didn’t even field a team the last two seasons. Now back, UAB enters play at 5-3 vs FBS opponents, including winning 4 of its last 5 games. The Blazers haven’t permitted more than 23 points in regulation the past five games. 

The Roadrunners are -1 on the season in explosive plays in conference, UAB is also at -1. UTSA isn’t exactly a powerhouse offensively with a high of 31 points coming against UTEP over the past five games. UTEP by most power ratings is last in college football. In what looks like a low scoring battle getting a number of this size is a gift. An outright upset would not surprise.

PLAY UAB

148 Troy at Coastal Carolina

Can’t see the Trojans getting excited to play a team with one lone victory right before its bye week. Off its third straight victory on Thursday beating Idaho 24-21 the Trojans may be a bit overrated here. 

Coastal Carolina is stepping up to FBS level this year after winning 43 games at the FCS level the past four seasons. While the wins haven’t been there the energy has. Last week the Chanticleers almost knocked off Arkansas on the road as a 24 point underdog. On the season Coastal is +1 in explosive plays, right behind the +6 of Troy. This line is simply too high for the road favorite Trojans in a letdown situation.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

117 North Carolina at Pittsburgh

The Tar Heels were very competitive early in the season before major injuries took a toll on this team. Single digit losses to Virginia and Miami Florida continue to show the fight in this squad. Now off a bye week we look for North Carolina to come out fighting hard with winnable games at Pittsburgh and hosting Western Carolina on deck. 

Pitt has fared better in the win column, but isn’t really any better than its counterpart on Thursday. Both teams are at -8 in explosive plays on the season against similar schedules. Pittsburgh has only surpassed 31 points once all year, against Rice, one of the bottom feeders in FBS football. The last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, which is where we see this one landing.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

103  Bowling Green at Buffalo

The Falcons have won the last six meetings in this series, and Buffalo hasn’t won any game against BG by this margin since 2005. Both teams have a +2 explosive play margin in Mid-American Conference action. Bowling Green played the tougher non-conference slate with Michigan and Northwestern. Buffalo faced Minnesota and Army. 

The Bulls haven’t surpassed 31 regulation points in any MAC game this year. The last three games saw them scoring 20, 14 and 13 points. Tough to lay this type of number against an offense which has averaged 36.5 points per game the last four outings. We like this Bulls team but this line is simply too high.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

469 Kansas City at Dallas

The Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in all but one game this season. This is a team that can attack in various ways and should find success against this Dallas defense. 

Dallas has scored 28 points or more now in five straight games. Elliott and company should have a field day running on this Chiefs defense which has struggled against the run all season. 

PLAY OVER

327 Illinois at Purdue

In Big 10 play Illinois is 0-5 being outscored an average of 31.2-14.6. That’s 16.6 points per game with an explosive play advantage of 20 to 16. 

In conference play Purdue is 1-4 being outscored by an average of 20.2- 17.2. An average of just 3 points per game. The Boilermakers are at a deficit of 6 in explosive plays. 

The lone victory for Purdue over Minnesota 31-17 is what this line is based on, a game in which the team was behind 14-6 at the half. So while the league average shows Purdue to be a double digit favorite here, the eye test says something different. It’s very tough to lay this type of number when the club is averaging just 17.2 points per league contest. An outright upset here would not surprise.

PLAY ILLINOIS

373 Massachusetts at Mississippi State

UMass has won two straight games beating Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. But this team has been very competitive all season long. In fact, its largest loss on the season was by 10 points twice. The Minutemen play to the finish, which is exactly what you are looking for with a sizable underdog.

This is a sandwich spot for Miss State. Coming off Texas A&M and having its biggest game of the year on deck vs Alabama. The Bulldogs have lost nine straight games to the Crimson Tide. Who do you think this team is preparing for this week?

PLAY MASSACHUSETTS

317 Marshall at Florida Atlantic

We expect a big bounce back week from the Thundering Herd after a 41-30 home loss to FIU. Marshall had run off five straight victories before that contest, holding 4 of 5 opponents to 10 points or less. The Thundering Herd have won all four meetings in this series with Florida Atlantic.

The Owls have won four straight games after looking terrible out of the gate with Navy. But keep in mind all the weaknesses the teams the Owls faced have. Middle Tennessee State  and Old Dominion are without starting quarterbacks. North Texas and Western Kentucky have regressed, especially the Hilltoppers after losing its head coach. So while we think the Owls are much improved, we aren’t buying into the huge power rating adjustment. 

Marshall has the better explosive play numbers and we can’t pass up this club getting a touchdown or more.

PLAY MARSHALL

310 Northern Illinois at Toledo

Simply can’t trust the Huskies here who have faced a full schedule of weak offensive opponents. Only once all season have Northern Illinois surpassed 14 first half points, and that won’t get it done against this dynamic Rockets offense. On the season the Huskies have produced just 21 total explosive plays of 20 yards or better. This isn’t an offense built on coming from behind.

Toledo on the other hand have 41 explosive plays on the year. Defensively the Rockets have allowed just 3, 2 and 2 twenty yard gains the past three games. With the defense getting better and the offense in high gear we will lay the points with the host.

PLAY TOLEDO

301 Bowling Green at Kent State

The Falcons have owned this series as of late winning by margins of 35, 48, 10 and 19 points the past four seasons. While BG is just 2-5 SU vs FBS competition, this team has been very competitive when not stepping up in class. 

Kent State has the worst scoring offense in college football. Only twice did the Flashes reach double digits this year. Scoring 13 hosting Buffalo and 17 hosting Miami Ohio. Strictly looking at first half scoring Kent State has amassed 28 total points in 7 games. That’s an average of 4 points in the first half this season. What is even more astounding in that Kent has had 7 first half drives starting in opponent territory. 

Bowling Green can score and Kent has no answer, road favorite takes the cash here.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

273 Denver at Kansas City

Broncos have dropped three straight in this series and like the Chiefs enter this contest off back to back losses. The last six visits to Arrowhead saw Denver either a favorite or a 4 or less point underdog. Being a dog of this magnitude here is rare. On the season Denver has a +8 explosive play mark, while the Chiefs are at a -8.

This game is more important for the Broncos who are 3-3 on the year with Philadelphia and New England on deck.

KC sits at 5-2 with Dallas and a bye on deck. Much has been made about the Kansas City home field advantage, but the Chiefs are only 18-29-1 ATS here as a home favorite the past decade. 

PLAY DENVER

268 Houston at Seattle

The Texans have feasted on poor defensive teams as of late. Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee and New England. In those games the Texans put up 33 points or better against every opponent. Now the team really takes a step up to play an improving Seahawk stop unit.

This Seattle defense has held all but one opponent this year to 18 points or less. Seattle enters this game having won 4 of 5 and the offense is starting to show some signs.

This is a very tough place to play, especially with a rookie quarterback. After facing easy defenses we expect Watson and company to really struggle here on Sunday.

PLAY SEATTLE

183 Georgia Southern at Troy

The Eagles just fired head coach Tyson Summers after being blown out at UMass last Saturday. The team is promoting Chad Lunsford who has been with the squad since 2003. This program has had a proud tradition in the FCS ranks and won 9 games each of its first two seasons in the FBS. Last year under Summers the team won only 5 games and this year is winless vs FBS competition. The move had to be made and we expect the best effort of the season for Georgia Southern.

Troy is coming in off a blowout win at Georgia State, and has a Thursday contest with Idaho on deck. Keep in mind that Troy has really struggled against Georgia Southern, losing by margins of 4, 35 and 32 the past three years. Last year Troy was favored by a touchdown and lost outright.

The Georgia Southern players know the success they have had in this matchup and should come into this game with a whole new positive outlook. This line is way too high in our opinion.

PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN

133 Florida International at Marshall

First year Panthers coach Butch Davis has his team coming off a bye, which enables his staff to put in more of the playbook. Like Florida Atlantic last week coming off a bye with a new coach, the Owls crushed North Texas. Both these teams recently played at Middle Tennessee State. The Panthers were an 8 point underdog while the Thundering Herd were a 1 1/2 point favorite. That would mean that on a neutral field Marshall is 9 1/2 points better. That would make the Herd 13 points better this week. But that’s not what we are finding. Marshall is now upwards of 17 in most places. Keep in mind the Herd has a Friday game against FAU on deck, while FIU is off a bye. Nice spot here for the dog along with a very generous line.

PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

106 South Alabama at Georgia State

Not buying into the Jaguars as a road favorite here. Sure the team looked great two weeks ago on national tv in a 19-8 win over Troy. But that hasn’t been the way this team has played this season. Coming in at 2-4 SU vs FBS opponents, with losses to Idaho and Louisiana Tech. 

Georgia State comes into action on Thursday at 3-2 SU vs FBS opposition. But it just lost to Troy 34-10. So we are catching the Panthers off a bad performance, while the Jaguars are fat and sassy. The last three years this game has been decided by 3, 4 and 3 points. We will gladly take the home dog as we have Georgia State as a three point favorite here.

PLAY GEORGIA STATE

466 New Orleans at Green Bay

The Saints haven’t played a true road game in a month. Traditionally this dome team is far better at home than on the road playing outside. New Orleans is on a 3-8 spread run as road favorites. Coming off a 52 point scoring game the Saints enter this contest fat and sassy.

Green Bay is the home dog here because of the injury to Aaron Rodgers. But the drop-off isn’t as big as many would expect. The backup has been in the system for a couple years and has looked terrific when getting time in the preseason. Coming off the bench rusty last week is not the same as having a full week of practice with the starters. The Packers are on a 22-5 run straight up in Lambeau Field. It continues on Sunday.

PLAY GREEN BAY

351 Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

The Demon Deacons are off a bye to help prepare for the Yellow Jackets option. Wake has had a very strong defense this year, allowing a season high 28 to Clemson the last time this team took the field. Wake has played a 32 spot tougher schedule thus far, and has a +7 explosive play advantage. That includes games against Florida State and Clemson. The Demon Deacons are on an 8-2 ATS run as a road underdog.

Georgia Tech hasn’t been nearly as explosive offensively as in previous years. The Yellow Jackets are producing only 4 explosive plays per game, even overall on the season in explosives. Coming off a heartbreaking tough loss to Miami, we can see this team having trouble bouncing back here. Coming off a 9-4 season a year ago, the Jackets are just 2-2 SU this season vs FBS competition.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

325 Buffalo at Miami Ohio

Despite losing to Northern Illinois 14-13 last week, the Bulls showed great heart being competitive after a 7 overtime game the week prior against Western Michigan. To be able to play a better team coming off that letdown spot says a lot about the kids under Lance Leipold. Buffalo has cashed all three road games this season and won outright the past two visits to Oxford. Buffalo has a +6 explosive play mark despite playing a schedule 26 spots tougher than that of the Redhawks. 

Miami is +4 in explosive plays on the season, and haven’t covered at home vs an FBS opponent this year.

PLAY BUFFALO

332 Northern Illinois at Bowling Green

The Huskies have played a tougher schedule by 16 spots over the Falcons, but it’s not nearly enough to justify this high line. Northern Illinois hasn’t surpassed 28 points in any FBS game this season. Tough to lay double digits on the road when you can put points on the board. In five FBS games the Huskies have just 14 explosive plays, one of the worst marks in college football. These clubs have split the past four meetings, even though NI won a total of 36 games in those four years. 

BG started slow last year under Mike Jinks, managing just a 4-8 record. While this year the Falcons are 2-4 in FBS games, the team is off back to back outright underdog wins over Ohio U and Miami Ohio. We said before the season that we would make money on this club in the later part of the year. It’s time to back the rising Falcons over an overrated Husky squad.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

345 Pittsburgh at Duke

The Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings including crushing the Blue Devils 56-14 a year ago. Pitt has played an almost identical schedule with just 3 spots separating the two. The explosive play advantage is just one for the underdog Panthers. Since allowing 14 explosive plays to Oklahoma State, Pitt has permitted just 17 combined to last four contests. This team is 7-4 ATS as a road dog under Pat Narduzzi, and we take advantage of a line that is at least 3 points too high here.

Duke started the year winning against Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina. But none of those teams are as good as you would have expected. Losses to Miami, Virginia and Florida State have followed. So Duke is looking more like we expected coming off a 4-8 season. We take the generous number here with the Panthers.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

310 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State

The Thundering Herd looks impressive coming into this game at 5-1 on the season. But a closer look shows this team to be way overrated. Keep in mind Marshall owns wins over Miami Ohio, Kent State, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. There is no team in the country that has faced such a weak schedule of FBS opponents. The Thundering Herd rank 109th in the country, and that’s only because others have faced FCS opponents. Despite such a weak schedule this team is only +6 on the season in explosive plays.

Middle Tennessee is +15 in explosive plays this season, despite playing a much tougher schedule. Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Minnesota are better than all but one team, NC State, that the Herd has faced. 

With the visitor 3-0 in conference and the Blue Raiders sitting at 1-2 this is a must win for the host. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee has won 6 or more games the last five years in CUSA. The Blue Raiders are also looking to avenge a 42-17 loss from last year, as an 8 1/2 point favorite.

PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

145 Tulane at Florida International

In games when Tulane is not facing fellow option teams the points have been plenty. 70 points vs Oklahoma and 90 last week against Tulsa. This total is much too low for an offense that is starting to hit its stride.

Florida International looked good against Rice, holding the Owls to just 9 points. But other than that it has yielded 61 to UCF, 29 to Charlotte and 37 to Middle Tennessee State. This is the first option team these Panthers seniors have faced. Lots a points scored here.

PLAY OVER

163 Charlotte at Western Kentucky

This is strictly a play against Western Kentucky, a team averaging just 19.3 points per game, laying almost that here. The only decent defense this team played was Illinois. Scoring only 70 combined points against Louisiana Tech, Ball State and UTEP simply won’t get it done in a favorites role. 

Other than the 55 the 49ers allowed to a physical Kansas State team, this defense has been fine. Allowing 24 to Eastern Michigan, 28 to Georgia State, 30 to FIU and 14 to Marshall. When Charlotte drops down in class it’s a team we want to look at, especially against a Hilltoppers squad that hasn’t won by this margin all season.
PLAY CHARLOTTE

193 Navy at Memphis

The Midshipmen have beaten Memphis each of the last two seasons and are 27-14 ats as an underdog the past decade. 

The Tigers are 0-3 the past three seasons against option squads. The Tigers also have a trip to Houston on Thursday. So its likely the preparation for the option won’t be all the Tigers are looking at this week in practice.

PLAY NAVY

454 Buffalo at Cincinnati

While the Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season, this isn’t what we would consider a playoff team. It’s losing the explosive play battle, and has gone three straight games losing the first half yards per play numbers. 

Cincinnati has been much more explosive offensively since the offensive coordinator change. It has a positive explosive play edge on the season, to go along with three straight games of winning the first half yards per play. One team has been fortunate while the other is on the rise.

PLAY CINCINNATI

375 California at Washington

The last time the Bears traveled to Seattle it came away with a 30-24 victory. While we aren’t calling for the outright win, a cover is easily in its site. We’ve been very impressed with this Golden Bears defense which has allowed just 9 explosive plays in four BFS contests. That includes Oregon, USC and an SEC squad in Mississippi. Justin Wilcox has this team pointed in the right direction off a 5-7 season a year ago under Sonny Dykes.

Washington has feasted on bad or rebuilding teams so far. Rutgers, Fresno State, Colorado and Oregon State won’t scare many. Now fat and happen these Huskies will be severely tested for the first time this season.

PLAY CALIFORNIA

404 Wisconsin at Nebraska

The Badgers have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. Utah State, Florida Atlantic, BYU and Northwestern. This team was tied at the half vs the Aggies, failed to cover by 18 1/2 against the the Owls. BYU has yet to win a game and the Wildcats gave Wisky all it could handle last week as a double digit dog.

Nebraska has had a terrific defense since halftime adjustments in the Oregon game. Shutting out the Ducks in the second half, Allowing 21 to Northern Illinois, 17 to Rutgers and 3 to Illinois. While none of those three can be considered strong offensively, Nebraska permitted just one combined explosive play the last three games! In fact, Oregon is the only team that has gotten more than two 20 yard gains against this defense all season. The Cornhuskers held Wisconsin to 23 points each of the last two years. Tough to lay double digits when you don’t reach the end zone on a regular basis.

PLAY NEBRASKA

330 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina

Panthers have only played two FBS squads this season, losing at Penn State 56-0 and winning at Charlotte 28-0. This is an unknown role for Shawn Elliott and company as Georgia State hasn’t been installed as a road favorite since joining the FBS in 2013. The Panthers have played the 126th strongest schedule and are minus 8 in explosive plays.

Coastal Carolina on the other hand has played virtually the same schedule strength at 128th, and are plus 2 in explosive plays. Games against Massachusetts, UAB and ULM resulted in a 1-2 record SU & ATS. 

While this is the first year for the Chanticleers in FBS, we like the job Joe Moglia has done in Conway. Wrong team favored.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

319 Central Michigan at Ohio U

The Chippewas have beaten the Bobcats the past three meetings. The team is 6-3 ATS lately as a road underdog. Despite playing three FBS teams outside the MAC the Chippewas have held their own with a 20 to 17 explosive play advantage. In 3 of 4 games Central Michigan had a better yards per play advantage in the first half. 

Ohio U is off three straight lesser opponents, Massachusetts, Eastern Michigan and Kansas. We aren’t giving them too much credit for that, especially because the Eastern Michigan win came in overtime. Too many points here as we graded this line out at 7 1/2.

PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN

361 Tulsa at Tulane

The last three years have seen point totals of 77, 79 and 79 points including overtime. While this isn’t the same Tulsa offense of the last two years, the Golden Hurricane can move the ball on the Green Wave. This is the third straight option attack Tulsa has faced. Which is normally a good thing. But when you haven’t proven the ability to stop it, it only gets worse for this defense. Playing the option and cut blocks is a physical way to play. Now this team has to go through it for the third straight week. 

Tulane is fresh and off a buy after facing the option of Army. While the offense has only scored 21, 14 and 21 the past three games, keep in mind the opposition. One game was against heavyweight Oklahoma, the other two against Army and Navy. When two option teams go head to the head the scoring is stifled. This total is just too low for clubs that should have distinct offensive advantages.

PLAY OVER

303 New England at Tampa Bay

The Patriots have been involved in 41 explosive plays in only four games. Offensively 21 produced and defensively 19 allowed. Against good defensive teams such as Kansas City, Houston and Carolina, Patriots games produced 69, 69 and 63 points. 

Tampa Bay is coming off three games against good defensive squads in Chicago, Minnesota and the NY Giants. The Bucs should have a field day against this Pats defense, just like the struggling Panthers did on Sunday.

With the short week and this being a non-conference game it will be tough for the defenses to game plan.  

PLAY OVER

272 Philadelphia at LA Chargers

The Eagles sit at 2-1 on the season after using a 61 yard field goal to beat divisional rival New York. With four straight NFC opponents on deck including Thursday Night and Monday Night matchups, we can see the Eagles looking past the winless Chargers here.

This is the third straight home game for the Chargers, and a must win game after an 0-3 start. LA is a much better team than what it has shown thus far, and it should match up well here with an Eagle defense missing key players.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

255 LA Rams at Dallas

The Rams offense has produced 46, 20 and 41 points this season. The offense is balanced and Goff looks to be much better than a year ago. We have concerns about the Dallas defense and its best player Lee is a game time decision. 

The Cowboys are at its best when running the football. and Elliott and company should have a field day against this weak LA rush defense.

PLAY OVER

263 Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Bengals changed its OC before last week and had its best offensive game this season. With Cleveland missing at least three keys on defense this week we look for the Bengals to score at will.

The Browns on the other hand are third in the league in offensive explosive plays, and this Cincinnati defense isn’t anything special.

PLAY OVER

130 Akron at Bowling Green

What the hell have the Zips done to be installed as a road favorite against a team it hasn’t beaten since 2006? BG has won this series by margins of 10, 49, 17, 17, 14, 16, 4 and 24 points covering the last decade. In its first three FBS games this season Akron has been outscored 35-0, 41-14 and 22-17. The Zips are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Terry Bowden.

Bowling Green has played three games vs FBS competition, all on the road. And as expected were beaten soundly in all three matchups as double digit dogs. But now this team returns home for the first time all year against an FBS opponent. This is the second year in the program for Mike Jinks. In his first season in BG, in conference action the Falcons averaged 29.6 ppg while permitting 29.9 ppg. Bowling Green brings a three game MAC winning streak into this contest. We expect that to be extended.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

180 Georgia at Tennessee

The way the pros win consistently in sports betting is to buy low and sell high. That’s exactly what we have here in this contest. 

Georgia is off a 31-3 blowout over Mississippi State. And are now being praised as the up and coming national contender. Don’t get us wrong, we really like this Georgia team, but keep in mind the Bulldogs have lost to the Volunteers each of the last two seasons. In fact, the last six meetings have all been decided by eight points or less.

While Georgia is being praised, the Volunteers are being jeered. That will happen when you can’t distance yourselves from Massachusetts at home. But keep in mind the sandwich situation Tennessee was in. Off a last second hail mary loss to Florida, with rival Georgia on deck. 

Tennessee has a bye next week while Georgia plays its third straight SEC contest when it travels to Vanderbilt. This line is three points too high based on what happened a week ago.

PLAY TENNESSEE

171 New Mexico State at Arkansas

The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season and none of it has been a fluke. NMSt has equalled or beaten every opponent in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This is a team that has 25 explosive plays in its first four games. What we want out of a live underdog.

Arkansas had an extra week to prepare for A&M last week and lost in overtime 50-43. Now it takes on a non-conference opponent before facing South Carolina and Alabama. Can’t trust the Razorbacks at all in this situation.

PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE

490 Dallas at Arizona

The sharp money is showing on the home dog here and for good reason. In looking back after the first part of the season, we can start to make judgements on each team. 

Dallas started the year with an impressive 19-3 win at home over the Giants, but we have now seen NY go winless thus far. Dallas was crushed 42-17 at Denver. The same Broncos team that lost at Buffalo yesterday. In those two games the Cowboys have an explosive play edge of just 5 to 4.

Arizona played two road games at Detroit and Indianapolis. The Lions were one yard short of starting the season 3-0. And the Colts look like a much better team after that crushing loss to the Rams. On the season Arizona has an 11 to 3 explosive play advantage. Under Bruce Arians the Cards are 4-2 as a home underdog but haven’t been in that role since 2014. With the fired up MNF crowd we will back the Cardinals.

PLAY ARIZONA

474 New Orleans at Carolina

The Saints have combined to score 29 points against the Vikings and Patriots. It’s become clear that in order to keep the poor New Orleans defense off the field Sean Payton will need to run the football. 

Cam Newton is clearly not back healthy from his offseason surgery. The last thing Ron Rivera wants to do is put his franchise QB at risk by throwing the football. The Panthers have scored just 32 combined points against Buffalo and San Francisco. The Carolina defense on the other hand has permitted just 6 total points on the season. 

PLAY UNDER

477 Atlanta at Detroit 

Easy call here for the over. Atlanta averaged 33.8 points per game a year ago and have put up 57 combined points in its first two games. 

Detroit put up 35 and 24 against two pretty good stop units in the Cards and Giants. This will actually be the first decent offense the Lions have faced as both Arizona and New York have major offensive problems right now. 

PLAY OVER

479 NY Giants at Philadelphia

This is a must win game for the Giants. No doubt about it. An 11 win team a year ago will be 0-3 to start the season and almost assuredly out of the playoffs with a loss here. The injured are slowly coming back and the motivation is clearly with the visitor. Before last week the Giants would have been a 3 point dog here, but after losing on national tv Monday night the line has taken off. You will not go broke betting on MNF losers the following week.

Philadelphia is a good team but not this good. After back to back road games it faces the Giants here in its lone home game in the first four weeks. Strictly a value play here. Hold your nose and bet the inflated priced dod in a do or die game.

PLAY NY GIANTS

390 UTSA at Texas State

The last three plus seasons the Roadrunners are 6-14 straight up on the road. They are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS as a double digit favorite regardless of location. Too much is being made of the 17-10 win earlier at Baylor, a team completely changing systems. 

We’ve been very impressed by Texas State despite losses to Colorado and Appalachian State. The Bobcats have only lost the explosive play battle 9 to 8. In first half action they have been outscored just 21-10. When looking at first half yards per play it lost to Colorado on the road 4.7 to 4.1, while outgaining App State 5.2 to 3.6. While this team entered the season as a bottom feeder in a lot of power ratings, the Bobcats have looked like a team on the rise. Keep in mind this team won as a 20 1/2 point underdog at Ohio U in the opener last year before injuries took a major toll. Nice value here with the home dog.

PLAY TEXAS STATE

391 San Diego State at Air Force

How many points is it worth in the line after winning back to back games against two PAC12 opponents? Certainly not as much as the current betting numbers would have you believe. 

Under Rocky Long the Aztecs have held Air Force to point totals of 24, 14, 20, 9, 27 and  25 points in his seven seasons at San Diego State. That’s 19.8 ppg under one of our favorite coaches. During those seven seasons Air Force averaged 30.5 points per game on the season, more than 10 points per game more than what it averaged against San Diego State. With both teams off physical Big Five teams, we will side with the simply better squad in a low priced contest. The Aztecs have won outright the past six meetings.

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

405 Nevada at Washington State

The Cougars enter this game undefeated, but we have not been impressed. This is the fourth straight home game for Washington State and it hosts USC next Friday Night. This is surely a lookahead situation for the Cougars. 

In lined games against Boise State and Oregon State the Cougs outscored them at the half by a combined margin of 38-19. But a closer look shows that Wazzou had four first half drives start in opponent territory. The opposition on the other hand had none, with starting field position of the Boise State 20 and the Oregon State 22. 

Nevada faced two clubs likely going bowling this year in Northwestern and Toledo. It is also off an embarrassing loss to FCS entrant Idaho State last week. The Wolf Pack are 7-4 ATS as a road dog the past 2+ seasons. Keep in mind the halftime scores against the two Big 5 opponents, 27-27. That’s despite allowing a combined five drives starting in its own territory, with none starting in opposition territory for the offense. So they permitted just 27 first half points even thought five opponent drives started in its territory. This is a team that is below the national radar and we take full advantage.

PLAY NEVADA

341 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech

The Monarchs were highly thought of coming into the season off a 10-3 mark a season ago. But now after losing at home to North Carolina by 30 points last week, people are falling over themselves to bet against them. But coach Bobby Wilder pulled Blake LaRussa after falling behind, for a left-handed freshman quarterback. And after the change Old Dominion played much better ball. Now the freshman gets the start against a Bud Foster defense, not an easy task. But this line move gives us plenty of wiggle room for the Monarchs to bounce back. Old Dominion has a bye next week so after an embarrassing home loss we know this team will have full attention this week in practice. 

Virginia Tech is 2-0 against FBS competition but in both games the team really struggled out of the gate. In the first half against West Virginia the Hokies were outgained 5.0 to 4.7 yards per play and held a 10-7 halftime lead. At East Carolina last week VT had to score a late TD to claim a 23-17 halftime advantage. Keep in mind the Hokies at that point were outgained 6.9 to 5.4 ypp as a 27 point favorite! 

We are going to take the big dog here as Virginia Tech has a huge lookahead game with National Champion Clemson on deck. After a 47 point blowout victory it’s going to be hard to motivate this club for the Monarchs.

PLAY OLD DOMINION

301 LA Rams at San Francisco

Not many teams find themselves in the position the Rams will this week. That would be playing with triple revenge against the 49ers. That’s right the Rams have lost to San Francisco by scores of 22-21, 28-0 and 19-16 in OT the past three meetings. What that does is make the Rams fired up to play the Niners, something most teams lack. Coming off a home loss to the Redskins we can see the Rams playing its best game of the season here. Despite a 1-1 record the Rams have a +5 explosive play advantage after two games. The offense has put up 66 points so far, and the Niners just don’t have that type of offense to keep up. 

Now before you start talking about the improvement of the 49ers defense, take a look at who the team played. Carolina with Cam Newton coming back from a serious injury and the Seahawks who have no offensive line. While those are both high quality defenses the Niners scored 12 total points and created just two total explosive plays offensively. 

The line is currently exactly what it was last year when these two met in Levi’s Stadium. The Rams are the more improved team since that meeting.

PLAY LA RAMS

274 Minnesota at Pittsburgh

Solid scheduling edge here for the host. Minnesota is on a short week after looking very good against the Saints Monday night at home. After this contest Minnesota has two more home games against possible NFC playoff squads Tampa Bay and Detroit. In fact, this road game at an AFC opponent is followed by four NFC battles including division rivals Detroit, Chicago on MNF and Green Bay. So this is by far the least important game for the Vikings in quite a while. We also get to fade a team that looked impressive in front of a MNF audience. 

Pittsburgh on the other hand is home for the only time in the first month of the season. The next two weeks the Steelers travel to Chicago and Baltimore. With only NFC entrant the Bears on deck, there is no lookahead for the host. The last three years have seen the Steelers going 7-1-1 ATS its first three home games of the season. This is a club who hasn’t had a single losing season overall in over a decade. We look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of a Minnesota team with less preparation time.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

123 Cincinnati at Miami Ohio

This is a major rivalry game that most people don’t know about. Xavier, Miami and Cincinnati are all close to each other and take special pride in knocking off its neighbors. 

Here we find a Cincinnati team catching points for the first time in over a decade in this rivalry. Not only are they an underdog for the first time since 2005, the Bearcats have been significant favorites. Starting last year and going backward Cincinnati has been favored by 16, 20, 28.5, 24, 20.5, 15.5, 17, 28.5, 12, 7 and 11 points. That’s an average of over 18 points per game the past 11 seasons. 

Cincinnati played pretty well at Michigan last week with the spread never in doubt. The Bearcats are down by prior standards but this overlay is way too large. Based on the current line we are looking at a 21 or more point adjustment in one season, way too high. Keep in mind that Miami at the half against Marshall had a turnover advantage and still was outscored 21-13. The Redhawks were outgained 5.1 to 4.0 ypp at the half in a game it lost 31-26. We like this Miami team but this is rare territory for Chuck Martin’s club.

PLAY CINCINNATI

125 Georgia State at Penn State

The Panthers haven’t played a game since taking on Tennessee State on August 31st. That gives them plenty of time to try to keep this Penn State team under control. Since joining the FBS the Panthers are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, 21-10 ATS catching double digits. Last year against a fellow Big 10 team the Panthers caught 34 1/2 at Wisconsin and only lost by 6. 

Penn State had last weeks contest against Pittsburgh circled, as the team felt losing to the Panthers last year cost them a chance to play in the final four. With that game having so much emotion in a rivalry contest along with the Big 10 season starting next week at Iowa, we can see the Nittany Lions going through the motions here. 

PLAY GEORGIA STATE