Cappers Sports Picks

209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama

Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. 

Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. 

The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination.

PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

198 Clemson at South Carolina

We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four.

South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise.

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

163 Iowa State at Kansas State

Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards.

Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored.

PLAY IOWA STATE

101 Kent State at Akron

This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. 

Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. 

Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. 

PLAY KENT STATE

385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn

The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers.

This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number.

PLAY ULM

308 Eastern Michigan at Miami Ohio

The Eagles enter play out of the bowl picture after losing to Central Michigan a week ago. This is a team much better than its record, but have not had many breaks go its way this season. Six losses were either by 5 points or less. or in overtime which happened three games this season. In the last month alone Eastern lost two overtime games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Now that the postseason is out of reach we can’t see how this team can right itself for the remaining two games.

While Eastern Michigan is just playing out the string, Miami can still go bowling with wins over Eastern and Ball State. With the starting QB back and healthy we look for the Redhawks to do what it did last year, win late in the season to go bowling. 

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

151 Wyoming at Air Force

The Cowboys have cashed 9 straight games in this series and are playing the far better ball at the moment. Wyoming has won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming at league leading Boise State. The Cowboy defense has been outstanding holding all but one opponent this year to 24 points or less. The last three games Wyoming has only permitted 6 combined explosive plays of 20 yards or better.

Air Force just had its record broken for the longest streak of games without getting shutout. That was in a 21-0 loss to rival Army. The Falcons are only 2-5 ATS after facing the Cadets. On the season Air Force has permitted 19 more explosive plays than earned, as opposed to the Cowboys who are only -3 on the season.

PLAY WYOMING

148 Troy at Coastal Carolina

Can’t see the Trojans getting excited to play a team with one lone victory right before its bye week. Off its third straight victory on Thursday beating Idaho 24-21 the Trojans may be a bit overrated here. 

Coastal Carolina is stepping up to FBS level this year after winning 43 games at the FCS level the past four seasons. While the wins haven’t been there the energy has. Last week the Chanticleers almost knocked off Arkansas on the road as a 24 point underdog. On the season Coastal is +1 in explosive plays, right behind the +6 of Troy. This line is simply too high for the road favorite Trojans in a letdown situation.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

103  Bowling Green at Buffalo

The Falcons have won the last six meetings in this series, and Buffalo hasn’t won any game against BG by this margin since 2005. Both teams have a +2 explosive play margin in Mid-American Conference action. Bowling Green played the tougher non-conference slate with Michigan and Northwestern. Buffalo faced Minnesota and Army. 

The Bulls haven’t surpassed 31 regulation points in any MAC game this year. The last three games saw them scoring 20, 14 and 13 points. Tough to lay this type of number against an offense which has averaged 36.5 points per game the last four outings. We like this Bulls team but this line is simply too high.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

373 Massachusetts at Mississippi State

UMass has won two straight games beating Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. But this team has been very competitive all season long. In fact, its largest loss on the season was by 10 points twice. The Minutemen play to the finish, which is exactly what you are looking for with a sizable underdog.

This is a sandwich spot for Miss State. Coming off Texas A&M and having its biggest game of the year on deck vs Alabama. The Bulldogs have lost nine straight games to the Crimson Tide. Who do you think this team is preparing for this week?

PLAY MASSACHUSETTS

310 Northern Illinois at Toledo

Simply can’t trust the Huskies here who have faced a full schedule of weak offensive opponents. Only once all season have Northern Illinois surpassed 14 first half points, and that won’t get it done against this dynamic Rockets offense. On the season the Huskies have produced just 21 total explosive plays of 20 yards or better. This isn’t an offense built on coming from behind.

Toledo on the other hand have 41 explosive plays on the year. Defensively the Rockets have allowed just 3, 2 and 2 twenty yard gains the past three games. With the defense getting better and the offense in high gear we will lay the points with the host.

PLAY TOLEDO

301 Bowling Green at Kent State

The Falcons have owned this series as of late winning by margins of 35, 48, 10 and 19 points the past four seasons. While BG is just 2-5 SU vs FBS competition, this team has been very competitive when not stepping up in class. 

Kent State has the worst scoring offense in college football. Only twice did the Flashes reach double digits this year. Scoring 13 hosting Buffalo and 17 hosting Miami Ohio. Strictly looking at first half scoring Kent State has amassed 28 total points in 7 games. That’s an average of 4 points in the first half this season. What is even more astounding in that Kent has had 7 first half drives starting in opponent territory. 

Bowling Green can score and Kent has no answer, road favorite takes the cash here.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

375 California at Washington

The last time the Bears traveled to Seattle it came away with a 30-24 victory. While we aren’t calling for the outright win, a cover is easily in its site. We’ve been very impressed with this Golden Bears defense which has allowed just 9 explosive plays in four BFS contests. That includes Oregon, USC and an SEC squad in Mississippi. Justin Wilcox has this team pointed in the right direction off a 5-7 season a year ago under Sonny Dykes.

Washington has feasted on bad or rebuilding teams so far. Rutgers, Fresno State, Colorado and Oregon State won’t scare many. Now fat and happen these Huskies will be severely tested for the first time this season.

PLAY CALIFORNIA

130 Akron at Bowling Green

What the hell have the Zips done to be installed as a road favorite against a team it hasn’t beaten since 2006? BG has won this series by margins of 10, 49, 17, 17, 14, 16, 4 and 24 points covering the last decade. In its first three FBS games this season Akron has been outscored 35-0, 41-14 and 22-17. The Zips are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Terry Bowden.

Bowling Green has played three games vs FBS competition, all on the road. And as expected were beaten soundly in all three matchups as double digit dogs. But now this team returns home for the first time all year against an FBS opponent. This is the second year in the program for Mike Jinks. In his first season in BG, in conference action the Falcons averaged 29.6 ppg while permitting 29.9 ppg. Bowling Green brings a three game MAC winning streak into this contest. We expect that to be extended.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

171 New Mexico State at Arkansas

The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season and none of it has been a fluke. NMSt has equalled or beaten every opponent in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This is a team that has 25 explosive plays in its first four games. What we want out of a live underdog.

Arkansas had an extra week to prepare for A&M last week and lost in overtime 50-43. Now it takes on a non-conference opponent before facing South Carolina and Alabama. Can’t trust the Razorbacks at all in this situation.

PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE

390 UTSA at Texas State

The last three plus seasons the Roadrunners are 6-14 straight up on the road. They are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS as a double digit favorite regardless of location. Too much is being made of the 17-10 win earlier at Baylor, a team completely changing systems. 

We’ve been very impressed by Texas State despite losses to Colorado and Appalachian State. The Bobcats have only lost the explosive play battle 9 to 8. In first half action they have been outscored just 21-10. When looking at first half yards per play it lost to Colorado on the road 4.7 to 4.1, while outgaining App State 5.2 to 3.6. While this team entered the season as a bottom feeder in a lot of power ratings, the Bobcats have looked like a team on the rise. Keep in mind this team won as a 20 1/2 point underdog at Ohio U in the opener last year before injuries took a major toll. Nice value here with the home dog.

PLAY TEXAS STATE

391 San Diego State at Air Force

How many points is it worth in the line after winning back to back games against two PAC12 opponents? Certainly not as much as the current betting numbers would have you believe. 

Under Rocky Long the Aztecs have held Air Force to point totals of 24, 14, 20, 9, 27 and  25 points in his seven seasons at San Diego State. That’s 19.8 ppg under one of our favorite coaches. During those seven seasons Air Force averaged 30.5 points per game on the season, more than 10 points per game more than what it averaged against San Diego State. With both teams off physical Big Five teams, we will side with the simply better squad in a low priced contest. The Aztecs have won outright the past six meetings.

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

123 Cincinnati at Miami Ohio

This is a major rivalry game that most people don’t know about. Xavier, Miami and Cincinnati are all close to each other and take special pride in knocking off its neighbors. 

Here we find a Cincinnati team catching points for the first time in over a decade in this rivalry. Not only are they an underdog for the first time since 2005, the Bearcats have been significant favorites. Starting last year and going backward Cincinnati has been favored by 16, 20, 28.5, 24, 20.5, 15.5, 17, 28.5, 12, 7 and 11 points. That’s an average of over 18 points per game the past 11 seasons. 

Cincinnati played pretty well at Michigan last week with the spread never in doubt. The Bearcats are down by prior standards but this overlay is way too large. Based on the current line we are looking at a 21 or more point adjustment in one season, way too high. Keep in mind that Miami at the half against Marshall had a turnover advantage and still was outscored 21-13. The Redhawks were outgained 5.1 to 4.0 ypp at the half in a game it lost 31-26. We like this Miami team but this is rare territory for Chuck Martin’s club.

PLAY CINCINNATI

125 Georgia State at Penn State

The Panthers haven’t played a game since taking on Tennessee State on August 31st. That gives them plenty of time to try to keep this Penn State team under control. Since joining the FBS the Panthers are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, 21-10 ATS catching double digits. Last year against a fellow Big 10 team the Panthers caught 34 1/2 at Wisconsin and only lost by 6. 

Penn State had last weeks contest against Pittsburgh circled, as the team felt losing to the Panthers last year cost them a chance to play in the final four. With that game having so much emotion in a rivalry contest along with the Big 10 season starting next week at Iowa, we can see the Nittany Lions going through the motions here. 

PLAY GEORGIA STATE

309 Western Michigan at Michigan State

The Spartans were very good to us last week against Bowling Green. Running our three year MAC record to 12-2 with the cover. But this week we go against a Michigan State team that is overpriced in this matchup. 

Being a directional school in Michigan means the Broncos take special pride when playing instate competition. Thus they are 4-1 ATS the past three plus years when facing fellow Michiganders. Western Michigan is also in its best role of road underdog. Under PJ Fleck this team was 12-4 ATS in that role, and a perfect 1-0 under Tim Lester after the Broncos gave the Trojans of USC all it could handle last week.

We talked about Michigan State last week being a team with something to prove off a terrible 3-9 season. They would not overlook Bowling Green and they certainly didn’t. This game is a different story. The next contest on the agenda is taking on rival Notre Dame, followed by Iowa and then instate rival Michigan. The Spartans are just 13-21 ATS as home favorites the past 5+ seasons. We look for the Broncos to take this one to the wire.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

152 Clemson & Alabama in Tampa

We played Clemson in this game last year and walked away with the cash. But we’ve watched every Tigers game this year and this team isn’t as strong as a year ago. The defense remains solid but the offense has been very inconsistent. The line advantage that the Tigers had over Ohio State will not be repeated here as Clemson and Alabama have the two best combined offensive and defensive lines in college football.

On the season Clemson is 1-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while Alabama is 4-1 ATS. That’s a sizable edge for the Tide in a game where turnovers will determine the winner. Going in to last week the consensus line on this game was anywhere from 9 to 11. Based on Clemson playing its best game of the season this line has dropped about three points. The line value is on the favorite and we will lay the points with the Tide.

PLAY ALABAMA

280 USC & Penn State

Both teams finished the regular season as two of the hottest teams in the nation. Both as we often see that hot streak no longer exists this far between games. It happens all the time in the NFL with a bye week, so you can imagine what happens in a January Bowl Game.

USC played Stanford, Utah, Colorado and Washington this year. None of those teams in the PAC12 covered the number in its bowl game. We have these two clubs rated about as close as two bowl teams could be, with Southern Cal gaining a small home edge because of the location.

In the key numbers we use we have the following: In season long explosive plays Penn State has the edge 3.0 per game to 1.6. In the last four regular season games Penn State is also ahead 17-5. When comparing the teams spread records when losing the turnover battle USC is 3-2 and Penn State is 2-2. When losing the sack battle Penn State is 0-1 ATS and USC comes in at 1-2. So as you can see these two clubs are almost identical in our power ratings. With the Nittany Lions knowing it can finish the season ranked #3 with the losses of Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. We will take the generous points with Penn State.

PLAY PENN STATE

265 Florida State & Michigan at Miami

We had Florida State ranked second in the country in our preseason power ratings. We were asking too much from this team with a freshman starter. After being blown out by upstart Louisville the Seminoles were put on the back burner by many. But as the season transpired the Seminoles started to get noticed again in the betting markets, finishing the regular season cashing 4 of 5. 

Michigan has a solid defense but played one of the weakest offense opponent slates in the country. This will be the best offensive unit the Wolverines have faced all year. And we worry about this Michigan offense who put up big numbers against weak opposition. The best defenses it faced were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. In those three games the Wolverines tallied 54 points and that included two overtimes against Ohio State. This one comes down to the wire and we will side with the better skill players of Florida State.

PLAY FLORIDA STATE

257 TCU & Georgia in Memphis

Much prefer the Horned Frogs here who are 30-21-2 ATS when Gary Patterson has extra time to prepare. This is a team that took a great deal of money in the Game of the Year lines down at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook. It was the most bet on team by the wise guys with a maximum bet of $1,000. Unfortunately this team underperformed all season with a 3-8 ATS mark against FBS opposition. The other two teams with three or less covers were Baylor and Southern Miss, both spread covering teams in the bowl season.  With time to reflect on this disappointing season we expect the Horned Frogs to come to play on Friday.

Georgia can’t be too excited for this bowl draw after back to back ten win seasons. Kirby Smart has a quality defense in his first season in Athens, but the offense is lacking. There than Alabama the rest of the SEC was really down this year. We’ve already seen Mississippi State struggle with a middling MAC team, and Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and South Carolina lose outright. The line moved towards the Horned Frogs late, and we agree with the move.

PLAY TCU

252 South Florida & South Carolina at Birmingham

Willie Taggart is off to Oregon with his top assistants, Charlie Strong will not be involved in this game. Therefore you have a sizable favorite here with an inexperienced coaching staff. 

South Carolina is a sizable SEC underdog, something rarely seen. It also owns the far better defensive unit. We like the job Will Muschamp has done here and this bowl game is a nice reward for a team expected to finish in last place in its division. Take the generous points with the Gamecocks.

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

240 Washington State & Minnesota

This line has risen based on the suspension of 10 Golden Gophers, two of them starters. Our line with the full lineups would have been Washington State -4. Therefore we are getting six extra points for a team playing with purpose. We always like to play on teams with suspensions as it galvanizes the squad. We will take the generous points here with a quality defensive unit.

PLAY MINNESOTA

222 Eastern Michigan & Old Dominion at Nassau

Not surprised by Old Dominion money coming in as of late as we made this line 5 points higher than the opener. Eastern Michigan won 7 total games the past four seasons, and have really improved this year under Chris Creighton. While web really like this team and have made quality money on them this season, Old Dominion has major edges. The Monarchs take care of the ball much better, only losing the turnover battle once all season. Old Dominion also only lost the sack battle once, all the way back on September 17th against NC State. We prefer the favorite here in what should be a double digit straight up victory.

PLAY OLD DOMINION

New Orleans Bowl

212 Southern Miss & UL Lafayette in New Orleans

The Golden Eagles won 4 total games from 2012-2014, but bounced back with a solid 9-5 record last year. So the team entered the 2016 season with high hopes. After beating Kentucky on the road in the season opener things looked great for first year coach Jay Hopson. But the only FBS victories since then came against UTEP, Rice, Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Three very bad teams an a Bulldogs team that was looking past Southern Miss to the CUSA Championship the following week against Western Kentucky. QB Nick Mullens is reportedly healthy, which is a positive. But that’s the only thing going in the Golden Eagles favor here. The team has struggled along the lines the latter part of the year, and is a negative 15 turnovers on the season. 

The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in the New Orleans Bowl in 4 of the last 5 seasons. ULL is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. While this isn’t a true home game for Lafayette it’s a game the team shoots for every season. One major reason we like the Ragin’ Cajuns chances here are how these two teams perform when losing the turnover battle. When you are able to cover a game despite losing the turnover battle it tells us the true heart of a team. ULL was a perfect 4-0 ATS in that department this season, the best in the FBS, just ahead of Alabama at 4-1. Southern Miss on the other hand was 0-7 ATS when losing the turnover battle.

PLAY UL LAFAYETTE

Las Vegas Bowl

204 Houston & San Diego State in Las Vegas

Houston will be without coach Tom Herman as he has moved on to Texas. The offensive coordinator has been named new head coach, so the team does know who it will be playing for next season. While the move is a positive for the players, we can’t help but see this bowl as a disappointment for the team. This was a club expecting to play in a much more prestigious bowl, and we expect the players to treat this as more of a vacation spot than a proving ground. Houston has been very inconsistent all season in turnovers and along the lines. The +10 sack margin against Louisville was unbelievable, but other than that game the Cougars were -6 on the season in sacks. In 4 of the last 5 games of the season this team averaged less than 4.7 yards per play. 

San Diego State is very familiar with this location playing in Vegas every other year. The game will take precedence over the festivities for the Aztecs. San Diego State rarely turns the ball over and is formidable along the lines. Donnel Pumphrey is going for the all-time rushing record so the offensive line will be extra motivated. 

PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

New Mexico Bowl

202 UTSA at New Mexico 

Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. 

New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest.

PLAY NEW MEXICO

333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis

Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. 

Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship.

PLAY PENN STATE

317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. 

Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

325 Temple at Navy

Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. 

So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen.

PLAY TEMPLE

303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit

The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. 

Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected.

PLAY OHIO U

160 Michigan State at Penn State

Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years.

PLAY PENN STATE

214 Mississippi State at Mississippi

This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game.

Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits.

PLAY MISSISSIPPI

139 Texas Tech at Baylor

The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35.

Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. 

PLAY TEXAS TECH

118 Toledo at Western Michigan

Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. 

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

128 TCU at Texas

The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points.

This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success.

PLAY TEXAS

104 Ball State at Miami Ohio

Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. 

Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks.

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

414 Air Force at San Jose State

Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here.

San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye.

PLAY SAN JOSE STATE

342 Oklahoma at West Virginia

As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. 

The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here.

PLAY WEST VIRGINIA

307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan

With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight.

Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. 

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

159 Appalachian State at Troy

The Mountaineers have won both meetings with the Trojans by margins of 3 and 39 points the last two years. The 44-41 triple overtime game from a year ago was with the Mountaineers as a 24 point favorite. That game was sandwiched between two Thursday games with contenders Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. You can bet coach Satterfield will remind his team of that situation from a year ago. With only ULM and New Mexico State remaining on the schedule Appalachian State can focus fully on Troy here.

Troy has put together a really good season, but this team hasn’t played a good team since the September 10th meeting at Clemson. The Trojans have been a 9 point or larger favorite in each of the last five games. 

App State has the much more explosive team despite playing a slightly tougher schedule. This team knows how to win on the road and we expect a solid victory over the Trojans.

PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE

165 Kentucky at Tennessee

Not buying into the line movement here as Kentucky has been every bit as good as Tennessee the last month. The Wildcats have a sizable explosive play advantage on the season of 1.4 per game over the Volunteers. In matching up similar opponents and using 3.5 as home field advantage we see Kentucky fares very closely to Tennessee. The Wildcats were -34.5 against Florida while Tennessee was +6.5. That was the clear outlier when looking at these games. Against South Carolina it was +3.5 for the Wildcats and +0.5 for Tennessee. Against Alabama it was -24.5 for KY and -42.5 for TN. Versus Georgia it was -6.5 for the Wildcats and +6.5 for the Volunteers. 

With Tennessee expected to be the SEC East Champions coming into the season, we can fade this team down the stretch. Off three straight losses there is no way Tennessee deserves this much credit in the betting marketplace.

PLAY KENTUCKY

101 Eastern Michigan at Ball State

The Eagles have dropped five straight in this series, but keep in mind this team posted a 13-47 overall record during that time. This Chris Creighton squad is far superior to any of those teams. In fact, a win here and the Eagles will become bowl eligible. After back to back losses to Western Michigan and an improving Miami Ohio, a victory here is paramount before heading into the bye week. 

Ball State has dropped 4 of 5 overall with the lone victory coming at Buffalo in a non-covering affair. The running game for the Cardinals is quality but this Eastern Michigan run defense is much tougher than in past years. We can see the Eagles putting a lot of pressure on the Ball State signal caller, making the offense one dimensional. Eastern has the much more explosive team averaging +1.1 explosive plays per game while Ball State sits at a -1.6. 

PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN

415 Nebraska at Ohio State

Only one team all season has scored more than 22 points in regulation against the Huskers. That was Oregon way back in week three who tallied 32. The last five games Nebraska has permitted 17, 14, 22, 16 and 13 points in regulation. Tough not to like a sizable underdog with a defense like that.

Ohio State is really struggling offensively. Without JT Barrett being 100% it takes away the ability for the QB to run from the pocket. The last four games Ohio State has produced 5.9, 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. These two clubs faced two good conference opponents this year, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In regulation Ohio State outscored those two by 4 total points, Nebraska outscored the same two teams in regulation by 11 points. So why are the Buckeyes such a prohibitive favorite? Public perception.

PLAY NEBRASKA

357 Charlotte at Southern Miss

Charlotte was a team getting a lot of press in the offseason with 16 returning starters. After facing Louisville, Eastern Michigan and Temple that hype dissipated. But looking back we see that all three of those teams are much improved, which gives us value on the 49ers now. The last three games Charlotte has outscored the opposition 81 to 74 despite playing two of those games on the road. The 49ers also have a slightly better explosive plays per game average than does the Golden Eagles, despite playing a little tougher schedule. Charlotte is off a bye after winning at Marshall by 3, while Southern Miss just beat the Thundering Herd at home by 10. There is no way the Golden Eagles deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. The Golden Eagles own just one FBS victory by more than this spread, and that was over UTEP, in a game it only had a 0.9 yards per play advantage. 

PLAY CHARLOTTE

371 Fresno State at Colorado State

Don’t look now but the Bulldogs have become major money makers after the firing of head coach Tim DeRuyter. Four straight covers by a combined total of 16 1/2 points. After blowing a huge lead and losing in overtime to Tulsa, followed by a 25 point loss at UNLV, this team was left for dead. Not anymore as this club is playing with new enthusiasm.

Colorado State has three FBS wins on the season, against UTSA, Utah State and UNLV. In two of those three games the Rams lost the yards per play category. In all three of those games Colorado State won the turnover battle. This is the first time all season this club has been a double digit favorite. The last time in that role was against these very same Bulldogs last year, and the Rams only won that game 34-31. We look for more of the same here.

PLAY FRESNO STATE

315 UCLA at Colorado

The Bruins have beaten the Buffaloes all five times since Colorado joined the PAC12. In every meeting UCLS has been a double digit favorite. Just last year Colorado was getting 23 points in Los Angeles. Now the Buffalos have been installed as a double digit favorite Thursday at home. 

While there is a drop-off at quarterback without Rosen, this line is saying its an eight point line adjustment. With last week off for the Bruins, the team can make the needed adjustments at quarterback. 

Just three weeks ago the Buffaloes gave Arizona State 11 1/2 points here. We have UCLA a full 10 points better with a healthy Rosen. Once again the line here has been overblown. Too many points to not back the Bruins here off its worst defensive effort of the year. 

PLAY UCLA

301 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois

What a difference a year makes with these two schools. The last three seasons these programs played for the MAC Championship. Now neither will be making the big game. 

Mike Jinks took over for Dino Babers this season and the club was overwhelmed from the start, much like what happened to Northern Illinois this season. But both clubs have settled down now that conference action is underway.

Just three weeks ago Bowling Green traveled to Ohio U and were installed as a 12 point underdog, in a 30-24 Bobcats win. Now the line is 5 points higher against a Huskies team that we have power rated as equal to Ohio U. That gives us plenty of value with the Falcons on Tuesday. 

Bowling Green still turns the ball over way too often, but the offense is starting to click. Bowling Green has produced 24 points or more in its last four games, against some of the better defenses in the MAC no less. 

Last time out Northern Illinois crushed Buffalo 44-7. But the offensively challenged Bulls lost the turnover battle by 4 in the first half in that game. The Bulls never had a chance to compete. Northern is the better team but this line is outrageous.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

162 Tulsa at Memphis

The Golden Hurricane has lost to Memphis by 24 and 20 points the past two seasons. The only FBS victories this season for Tulsa have come against San Jose State, Fresno State, SMU and Tulane. The middle two games coming in overtime. 

Memphis has suffered just two losses on the year, at Mississippi and at Navy. Two teams much better than Tulsa. The Tigers have a +1.5 explosive plays per game more than the Golden Hurricane while playing almost identical strength of schedules. Look for another double digit victory for Memphis.

PLAY MEMPHIS

202 Arizona State at Oregon

The Sun Devils have dropped 3 of 4 as of late with the offense averaging just 22.8 points per game. The quarterback position has been hampered with injuries and the starting center is out for this game. In three road games this season Arizona State is 0-3 ATS with spread losses of 12 1/2, 12 and 17 1/2 points. Oregon looked good coming out of the bye giving California all it could handle in a double overtime loss. On the season the Ducks have played a 5 point tougher schedule and still owns a 2.4 explosive play per game average over the Sun Devils. With the Ducks being winless on the season ATS there is tons of value on this Oregon squad.

PLAY OREGON

132 Army at Wake Forest

The Black Knights gained a lot of attention in knocking off Temple 28-13 as a 13 1/2 point underdog to start the season. But since then Army is 2-3 vs FBS competition with the only wins coming against Rice & UTEP. In fact, This team has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire FBS. How about facing North Texas, Duke, Buffalo, UTEP and Rice the past five FBS games. This team has dropped three straight ATS by a combined margin of 53 points. Army is an overrated squad right now in the betting markets.

Wake Forest has beaten Army each of the last four seasons and has already faced an option team in Tulane in the season opener. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and have cashed 4 of 5 games heading into this clash. The last two games Wake held Florida State and Syracuse to a combined 26 points. This line is cheap based on the perceived improvement from Army. Keep in mind there is a huge strength of schedule edge here for the host as Wake Forest has played a 14 point tougher schedule than the Black Knights. 

PLAY WAKE FOREST

396 Georgia Southern at New Mexico State

The Eagles are 2-3 SU vs FBS competition on the season and 1-4 ATS. It has been out gained in yards per play in 4 of 5 games. Yet for some reason Georgia Southern has been installed as a double digit road favorite. It’s also the fourth straight road game for the Eagles and third straight since its bye week. The Eagles also have to play on Thursday hosting Appalachian State in a revenge matchup. Needless to say this is a terrible spot for the visitor. 

New Mexico State is just 2-4 SU vs FBS competition but did beat another ground oriented attack in in-state rival New Mexico. Coming off an embarrassing 55-23 loss at Idaho after a bye, you can be assured Doug Martin and his crew will be fired up for this home battle. The Aggies are undefeated in Aggie Memorial Stadium this year and have double revenge against this opponent. When looking at explosive plays the Aggies are +0.5 per game while the Eagles are -2.0 on the season. Georgia Southern just doesn’t have the breakout backs it has had in prior seasons. 

PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE

385 Old Dominion at Western Kentucky

We’ve been very impressed by the job Bobby Wilder has done with the Monarchs. Three straight victories with the only FBS losses coming at Appalachian State at North Carolina State. With an extra week to prepare we look for Old Dominion to avenge two straight losses to the Hilltoppers. 

Western Kentucky has failed to cover the number in five straight games but it’s gone unnoticed because of a 3-3 straight up record. But this team could come in here a bit suggest after going to the wire against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt and Miami Ohio. All games decided by seven points or less including two contests involving a total of three overtimes. Now it’s homecoming week with the team knowing it has dispatched the Monarchs by 17 and 15 points the previous two years. When looking at explosive plays the visitor has the edge at +1.2 per game as opposed to a -0.5 for the host. This one is decided very late.

PLAY OLD DOMINION

362 Ohio at Kent State

The Bobcats are 3-3 SU on the season against FBS competition with a turnover margin advantage of plus 9. As we know turnovers for the most part are random and therefore the Bobcats have been very fortunate. In fact, last week was the first time Ohio U lost the turnover battle and in turn lost the game outright to Eastern Michigan. This team is rated higher by the gambling community than anyone who has watched this team play. 

Kent State is 1-4 SU on the season but has covered 3 of 5 games against the FBS. The offense obviously struggled against Penn State and Alabama but has averaged over 28 ppg against league opponents. That’s far better than the 9.1 ppg the Golden Flashes averaged a year ago. Speaking of a year ago, Kent State is looking to avenge a 27-0 shutout at the hands of this Bobcat team in Athens. With this being just the second home game against FBS opposition we can see the team fired up to exact some revenge.

PLAY KENT STATE

123 Connecticut at South Florida

The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. 

USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. 

PLAY CONNECTICUT

123 Connecticut at South Florida

The last nine games in this series have been decided by 8, 3 , 3, 7, 6, 3, 2, 4 and 7 points. So why is this line so much higher? Connecticut won outright in four of those nine games. This is a very tight series and this line is highly unusual. UConn isn’t going to dazzle you with a potent offense but this team knows how to play against superior competition. Just last year this club beat Houston outright as a double digit underdog and only lost 9-6 at Missouri catching 21 1/2 points. 

USF has a short week ahead as it takes on Temple on Friday. The Bulls only loss this season came against Florida State, as this is a very good football team. But we haven’t seen enough out of this squad to lay this type of number. 

PLAY CONNECTICUT

122 Ball State at Buffalo

The Cardinals are 2-3 straight up against FBS competition and haven’t been favored by double digits in ten games. The last time the Cardinals were such a big favorite it lost outright to Georgia State, failing to cover the spread by 25 points. When we break down explosive plays we find the host having the better numbers than this high priced road favorite.

Buffalo is 1-3 vs FBS competition and are off back to back blowouts to Kent State and Boston College. But this line movement is too extreme as Kent State was favored by just 3 points last week. We only rate Ball State three points better than the Golden Flashes. So we are getting an additional four points here with a fired up home dog looking to make amends. An outright upset wouldn’t surprise.

PLAY BUFFALO

117 Eastern Michigan at Ohio U

Been very impressed with the job Craig Creighton has done at Eastern Michigan this season. Since 2009 this team had been 15-69 and the laughingstock of the MAC. But this year his Eagles have been very competitive with a 3-2 SU record against FBS competition. What’s been especially good is that transpired despite a -4 turnover disadvantage. The last four games when looking at yards per play the Eagles have held their own.  +1.9 ypp against Charlotte, +1.5 vs Wyoming, +1.2 against Bowling Green and were only outgunned by 20 point favorite Toledo by 0.2 yards per play. 

Ohio U is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS vs FBS opposition. But keep in mind that this team has a turnover advantage of +10 and a sack advantage of +17 on the year. Teams that dominate those two stats should be much more successful. Coming off unimpressive victories over Miami Ohio and Bowling Green, we can clearly see the sell sign on the Bobcats.

PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN

179 Vanderbilt at Georgia

Second straight road game for the Commodores who are off a 20-13 loss at Kentucky. But teams who fail to cover in the first game of a back to back are an excellent play the following week. We saw this earlier in the season as the Commodores won outright at Western Kentucky after failing at Georgia Tech. That makes Vandy 5-0 ATS in that situation the last five years. Despite dropping game at Kentucky and Florida the past two weeks the Commodores beat both teams in yards per play. 

Georgia enters this game 3-2 SU against FBS members. Beating North Carolina by 9, Missouri by a single point and South Carolina by 14 when running back the onside kick at games end last week. We just haven’t seen enough out of this Georgia team to lay this type of number. Our explosive play chart rates Vandy much higher than the Bulldogs. Tough to lay this big of number without long touchdowns.

PLAY VANDERBILT

386 Washington at Oregon

Coming into this season we were already aware of how good this Washington team would be, along with the expected drop-off of the Ducks. Yet all three of our power ratings made Oregon a 1 1/2 point favorite in this game. So what has happened this season to make this game 11 points higher? Virtually nothing other than a nationally televised blowout win over Stanford. A Cardinal team that had just beaten USC and UCLA the previous two weeks before taking on the Huskies on a short week. We take nothing away from this Washington team but keep in mind it had to go to overtime to beat Arizona the prior week. 

Oregon enters this game on a three game losing streak, dropping contests to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, three bowl worthy opponents. Over the last 10+ years the Ducks are 61-10 straight up in Autzen Stadium. Oregon enters this contest knowing it has beaten the Huskies 12 straight games, yet is installed as a sizable home underdog. This team has been a home dog just twice in this last decade plus. Winning both games outright and covering the spread by a whopping combined margin of 74 1/2 points!

PLAY OREGON

321 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan

It’s a huge matchup of series history against current form. Northern Illinois has beaten Western Michigan seven straight times with the closest outcome being by 7 points. Western Michigan on the other hand have beaten the likes of Northwestern, Illinois and Central Michigan. PJ Fleck is a highly sought after coach who will likely be offered the Purdue job at years end. 

But this is not a very good spot for the Broncos. Last weeks blowout of Central Michigan was the legitimizer win for this program. After winning eight games each of the last two years the Broncos are now on the edge of the Top 25, and are talked about being a possible undefeated squad. 

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves Western Michigan fans, keep in mind you are +9 in turnover margin against FBS competition. In fact, the Broncos haven’t turned the ball over all season. That type of luck isn’t likely to continue as this team, coming into this season, were -4 in turnovers in the first three years of the PJ Fleck era.

Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season but a perfect 1-0 in MAC action. Losses at Wyoming in altitude, along with defeats at South Florida and San Diego State are excusable. Both those teams are Top 30 worthy. This is a veteran team with 58 lettermen returning along with a starting quarterback who transferred in from Western Michigan. That knowledge of the system can only help the Huskies. 

While Western is the clearly better team in the public eye, Northern Illinois knows how to beat this team.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

316 Boise State at New Mexico

Many will look towards the revenge angle in this one as Boise State was shocked 31-24 last year, losing as a 31 point favorite. But a quick look at history shows that the Broncos have a terrible time against the option. When going against Air Force and New Mexico the past five years Boise State is 6-3 straight up but 0-9 ATS. In fact those spread losses have been by margins of 18, 38, 8, 27, 9, 1.5, 22.5, 3.5 and 18. That’s over 16 points per game against the spread. The Broncos played Utah State last week so it has no extra time to practice for the option. 

Bob Davie has done a tremendous job here in Albuquerque since taking over the program in 2012. After consecutive single win seasons from 2009 thru 2011 this club has posted win totals of 4, 3, 4 and 7 the past four seasons. That may not sound overly impressive to most, but people in the know are well aware of his coaching ability. An outright upset here would really not be out of the realm of possibility.

PLAY NEW MEXICO

216 Oregon at Washington State

This Oregon program is on the decline under Mark Helfrich. His teams performed well in 2013 and 2014 with the Chip Kelly recruits. But last year the Ducks broke a streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit victories with a 9-4 record including losing its bowl game. The last two weeks the Ducks lost to both Nebraska and Colorado despite winning the turnover battle in each game, which is hard to do. 

Washington State and Mike Leach has played Oregon tough over the years. The last five games the Cougars have covered by margins of 23 1/2, 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2 and 20 points. Last year Washington State won in straight up fashion in Eugene. The wrong team is favored here.

PLAY WASHINGTON STATE

116 Memphis at Mississippi

The Tigers have been impressive thus far with dominate wins over SE M and Bowling Green. But the first win came against an FCS team and the Jayhawks and Falcons are two of the weaker teams in the FBS this season. That said, Mike Norvell has inherited a team that won 9 and 10 games the previous two years with Justin Fuente at the helm and Paxton Lynch behind center. 

Mississippi has had this game circled after losing at Memphis last year 37-24 as a 10 1/2 point road favorite. While Memphis has played a very weak schedule Ole Miss has taken on the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Florida State. Under Hugh Freeze the Rebels are 14-7-1 when installed as home favorites and the team has a bye week on deck.

We look for an inspired effort from the host as the step up in defenses faced for Memphis will be too much to overcome.

PLAY MISSISSIPPI

154 Akron at Kent State

Tough to lay points on the road in a rivalry game when your defense is allowing 577.7 yards per game the last three contests. Akron hasn’t beaten the Golden Flashes in regulation the past five times here. The only victory was a double overtime 30-27 win here in 2008. In three games against FBS competition the Zips have permitted 45, 38 and 54 points. No way this team should be a touchdown favorite.

Due to injuries the Golden Flashes are down to its third string quarterback, but like the Cleveland Browns last week the drop-off is virtually nonexistent. Kent is coming off a physical Alabama game last week but the two previous contests were vs FCS squads. Kent is also playing with shutout revenge for a 20-0 defeat last year at Akron. In two FBS games Kent has played at Penn State and Alabama, the drop-off in defensive faced is huge. 

PLAY KENT STATE

375 Miami Ohio at Cincinnati

Terrible scheduling situation for the host who played Houston on National Television last week and have major revenge against South Florida on deck. USF led Cincy 51-3 at halftime in what would become an embarrassing 65-27 loss. The Bearcats have dominated this one way rivalry series winning ten straight. We can’t see them getting up to play this lesser MAC team.

Miami on the other hand is much improved this year and has already faced the likes of Iowa and Western Kentucky, two spread covering contests. While conference action starts next week as the Redhawks host Ohio, this game has more meaning to the players. A win over their close rival would build major confidence heading into MAC action. Under Chuck Martin Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog and they have enough talent to take this one to the wire.

PLAY MIAMI OHIO

165 Akron at Marshall

Classic overreaction here as the Zips were heavily bet last week only to be blown out at Wisconsin. The line went from +25 to +21 1/2 at close and the Zips were never in the game. But Terry Bowden and the Zips are always a dangerous road dog and because of last week this line is highly inflated. Akron has won 6 of its last 7 games dating back to last year. Bowden always brings in high quality transfers, so despite bringing back only 7 starters this year the team has talent. 

As opposed to the Zips, Marshall has played just one game this year, a blowout of Morgan State. The team has back to back huge recruiting rivalry games on deck against Louisville and Pittsburgh. Because of last week’s results this line is at least 4 points higher than it should be, the lookahead for the Thundering Herd adds to our advantage.

PLAY AKRON

104 Houston at Cincinnati

The Cougars shocked Oklahoma in the opener 33-23 and made a major jump up in the standings. Last week without injured QB Greg Ward the team beat Lamar in a non-covering victory. While we agree this is talented team, there is no way this team should be a touchdown favorite here. First off in the win vs Oklahoma the Sooners won the yards per play battle 6.0 to 5.0. This is a team traveling on a short week to play on ESPN against a divisional rival. The last three years Houston won at home by 3, lost at Cincinnati by 7 and lost at home to Cincinnati by 7. The Cougars were a combined 29-11 the last three years but just 1-2 vs the Bearcats. 

Cincinnati dominated a Big 10 team on the road last week winning by 18 over Purdue. In the last decade this team is 8-2 ATS as a home dog, winning outright the past two occurrences. This is the biggest game of the season for the host. The fans will be primed and we expect this game to come down to the wire.

PLAY CINCINNATI

329 Akron at Wisconsin

You couldn’t ask for a better spot for Akron to take on the Badgers. Not only was Wisconsin looking to avenge a season opening loss to LSU from two years ago. But the game was a historic contest played in Lambeau Field. Even before the game was actual played you could see the excitement in the faces of the Wisconsin players who would step on this historic field to play a football game. After pulling the upset the players celebrated as if winning the national championship. Now with Akron and Georgia State on deck before the Big 10 season gets underway, do we really expect the Badgers to show the same type of emotion?

Akron was the top MAC school last year against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the season. Even when stepping up in class against Oklahoma the team managed just 3.0 ypc, Pittsburgh was more of the same at 2.8 ypc. Terry Bowden always brings in a lot of transfers which is why this team is always so goo on the lines. We expect the Zips to give the Badgers all it cab handle on Saturday.

PLAY AKRON

327 Central Michigan at Oklahoma State

The Chippewas are going to make us money this year and our first chance to cash is on Saturday. The John Bonamego era started last year with a 7-6 mark and he brings back 16 returning starters after just 9 a season ago. While this isn’t the best team in the MAC it’s the most balanced as the Chips are solid on both sides of the ball and has a possible NFL QB in Cooper Rush behind center. This team is 6-1 as a road dog the last two years and covered by 12 1/2 points last year hosting these Cowboys in the opener. 

The 24 points Oklahoma scored in last years meeting was just a point more than the 23 it scored against Oklahoma last year, a season low for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State crushed SE Louisiana last week but turnovers were the key. The Cowboys average starting field position was its 46 yard line. Oklahoma State has lost 3 of its last 4 games played including the Sugar Bowl loss to Mississippi. This team doesn’t deserve to be a 3 touchdown favorite here against a solid Central Michigan squad. 

PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN  

141 South Carolina at Vanderbilt

Because of off field concerns Steve Spurrier lost interest in the game the last few years on his tenure. In comes a hungry Will Muschamp to pick up the pieces and bring this program back to previous levels. After seven straight winning seasons the Gamecocks managed a 3-9 record a year ago. We expect a rebound season from South Carolina despite only 9 returning starters.To go from beating Vanderbilt 7 straight games by double figures to now being a dog is just a huge overreaction in our eyes. 

Vanderbilt has won just 7 total games in the last two years under Derek Mason. The team is 4-7 straight up at home vs FBS programs, with two of those victories coming against Old Dominion and Massachusetts. Under Mason the Commodores have averaged 15.2 and 17.2 points. Hard to lay over a field goal with teams that can’t score.

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

Belk Bowl

252 NC State & Mississippi State in Charlotte, NCThe Wolfpack have one of the absolute worst resumes of all the bowl teams this season. NC State was 0-5 against fellow bowlers being out gained by 124 yards per contest. The Wolfpack wins on the season were against Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Boston College, Wake Forest & Syracuse. Only one of its five losses was by single digits.Mississippi State faced the much tougher schedule and managed four victories in the eight games against bowl opposition. The four losses for the Rebels came against LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. All teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at some point on the season. While both teams enter bowl play off a loss to its in-state rival, we expect the Bulldogs to be more fired up here. This is the final game for QB Dak Prescott and this team laid an egg last year in the Orange Bowl loss to Georgia Tech.PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Southern Miss & Washington at Dallas
It’s offense vs defense here in the Cotton Bowl as the Golden Eagles put its explosive offense against the PAC 12’s best defense in the Huskies. Southern Miss offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey will leave the Golden Eagles after two years for the same title at Arizona State. As of this writing its unclear if he will be on the sidelines for this game. While it likely won’t be a factor here it could make a difference to this team going forward. This is the toughest opponent for Southern Miss since the opening game loss hosting Mississippi State. They lost that game by 18 while being out gained by 29 yards. That’s the only Power 5 Conference opponent the Golden Eagles played with six or more wins. Playing the likes of Austin Peay, Texas State, North Texas, Charlotte and UTEP won’t prepare this club for the Huskies. Southern hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2011 after winning just four games total the next three seasons. 
It’s really amazing how good of a job Chris Peterson did for Washington this year. Bringing back just nine starters after losing what could be the most talent in the nation to the NFL. Sure your powerhouses like Ohio State and Alabama can afford to lose those blue chip players, but a program like Washington was supposed to take a major step back. But that hasn’t been the case coming off an 8-6 season a year ago. A win here would equal the losses from that solid squad a season ago. Washington is bowling for the sixth straight year and wants to atone for a 30-22 defeat to Oklahoma State in last years Cactus Bowl. 
Chris Peterson was very familiar with Southern Miss when he coached at Boise State, winning four straight in the series. A major theme in bowl game handicapping is matching up Sagarin’s strength of schedule. This game represents by far the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. Washington played a whopping 114 places tougher schedule than the Golden Eagles. While Southern Miss played just one Big 5 team with at least six victories, Washington played eight and outscored them by an average of 4.5 ppg. That huge discrepancy goes a big way in us backing the much better defense here.PLAY WASHINGTON

St Petersburg Bowl
Connecticut & Marshall at St Petersburg, Florida
Marshall is an impressive 9-1 SU & ATS in bowl games as of late. But keep in mind that Marshall is an offensive team that scored 14 points less per game than a year ago. This Thundering Herd squad is 1-3 SU against fellow bowl teams, as this has been a down year for Marshall after the past two seasons. Devon Johnson the Herd’s leading rusher is out for this game. Although 28 Marshall players were recruited from Florida we can’t see them being overly excited for this matchup. 
The Huskies are bowling for the first time since 2010. This is a program that was left for dead and fought their way into a bowl. UConn wants this game badly while Marshall was looking for a stronger opponent. Connecticut played a much tougher schedule with a 69 spot advantage in the Sagarin Ratings. In what looks to be a lower scoring game we will take the Huskies here to continue its ability to play above expectations.PLAY CONNECTICUT

Boca Raton Bowl

216 Toledo & Temple in Boca Raton, FL
Both teams had higher aspirations half way through this season but have had quality years nonetheless. Toledo may not be fully prepared for this contest as the head coach has taken the job at Iowa State. While that’s one concern the biggest is that five assistants are following him to that job and won’t be here to coach the Rockets. Toledo has a power running game that is playing into the strength of the Temple defense.
The Owls should have a huge edge here in special teams, especially with the new head man at Toledo coaching his very first game at that position. Less experienced coaches mean more chances to be unprepared. While Toledo has shown the better offense it has been against the weak defenses in the MAC. Temple has played the better quality schedule and are superior on defense. This is the first game on grass for Toledo while Temple plays on grass all season.PLAY TEMPLE

132 Missouri at Arkansas

Revenge game for the Razorbacks who dropped the final game of the regular season last year to the Tigers. QB Brandon Allen has been on fire as of late throwing a school record 7 touchdowns last week in a one point overtime loss. Missou has failed to reach the end zone in its last two road contests, and has only 15 offensive touchdowns in 11 games. The Tigers are averaging just 14.5 points per game. The Tigers need a win to become bowl eligible, and it’s the last regular season game under Pinkle. But this team went all out the last two weeks at home against BYU and Tennessee and we feel the tank is getting mighty low for Missouri.PLAY ARKANSAS

400 Texas A&M at Vanderbilt
When we are wrong we admit it, as we once had Texas A&M ranked in the Top 10 in the country in our ratings. Boy did we blow that. But here is our chance to take advantage of a team that has been a major disappointment. While the Aggies sit at 7-3 on the season it’s just 3-3 in SEC action, one game ahead of the Commodores. When looking at SEC stats Texas A&M owns a 0.2 ppg edge while Vandy has a 7 yards advantage. The Aggies are being out gained by 0.8 ypp compared to 1.3 ypp for the Commodores. If you consider that the home team has a 3 1/2 point edge this line is saying the Aggies are 10 points better on a neutral field. That’s simply absurd! A&M allows 5.5 yards per rush which gives the Commodores plenty of chances to move the chains and take time off the clock. A big advantage for a home underdog. We will take the points here with a peaking team that has a great chance to win this one outright.
PLAY VANDERBILT

378 Old Dominion at Southern Miss
The Monarchs have played much better ball as of late but that’s about to end on Saturday. Southern Miss is on a mission this year after being truly horrendous the past few seasons. Both teams have overachieved this year, especially Southern Miss who is in line to go bowling with a 7-3 start. In conference play the Golden Eagles have a 33.6 ppg edge and a whopping 260 yard advantage over Old Dominion. While much of that occurred early in the conference schedule the host still has a big edge in this matchup. Southern does have a showdown at Louisiana Tech next week but after posting a combined 4-32 record the past three seasons we can’t see the Golden Eagles taking anyone for granted.
PLAY SOUTHERN MISS

411 Louisiana Tech at UTEP
Last year the Bulldogs beat the Miners 55-3 while winning yardage by 219. This looks like a repeat situation as we find the much more talented team coming off a well earned bye. UTEP is playing for the fifth straight week and can’t wait for this season to end. In CUSA play Louisiana Tech owns a 30.6 ppg edge along with a 224 yardage advantage with UTEP. In looking at yards per play the Bulldogs are up 1.9 ypp while the Miners are down 1.9 ypp. That’s a very rare 3.8 yardage edge per play to go along with a rested opponent. This one should get ugly in a hurry and get worse from there.
PLAY LOUISIANA TECH

307 Central Michigan at Kent State
Despite playing a slightly harder conference schedule, the Chippewas are outscoring the opposition as compared to Kent by over 24 points per game while having a 200 yard per game advantage over the Golden Flashes. Central has a yards per play advantage of 0.6 as opposed to Kent State which is being out gained by 1.4 yards per play. Kent State was outstanding against the run early in the year but because of lack of depth that advantage is no longer there. Which is why this team has faded down the stretch. In MAC action the Golden Flashes are allowing 4.3 yards per carry after being one of the nations leaders at one point. 
Kent just doesn’t have the offense to match opposing clubs and now the defense is feeling the pressure to carry the team. Not a good sign tonight against an overachieving Chippewas club.
PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN

216 Wyoming at San Diego State
The Cowboys are playing for the 11th straight week and are coming off it’s big rivalry game with Colorado State, a game it lost badly at home. QB Coffman is scheduled to return this week which is a positive, but this team has done virtually nothing offensively on the road.
San Diego State is coming in off a very important late season bye. The Aztecs have dominated the conference as of late and are in top form heading into this matchup. A clear rushing advantage here for the host who is dynamite on the ground while Wyoming is a sieve against the run. QB Smith has gotten better as the season has unfolded completing 125 passes without an interception. Look for the tired and banged up Cowboys to weaken as the game progresses.
PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

188 Oklahoma at Baylor
The Sooners have dominated as of late but did so against a group of also rans. We really like this Oklahoma team but this line movement has gone past the reality point. The Sooners are a great bully but are they ready to win on the road against what we feel is one of the top teams in the nation? The Sooners toughest opponents this year were Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia. They needed a major comeback to edge Tennessee and lost badly against a mediocre Texas team. The Sooners have not proven to us that they are deserving of all this respect. Especially considering Oklahoma lost to Baylor by 34 and 29 points the past two years.
Baylor is being criticized because of a soft schedule, but you can only beat the teams placed in front of you. The last five years the Bears are 29-1 straight up at McLane Stadium. In a battle of head coaches we will take Art Briles over Big Game Bob Stoops any day. 
PLAY BAYLOR

105 Bowling Green at Western Michigan

Big MAC showdown on ESPN2 on Wednesday as Bowling Green & Western Michigan get ready for a shootout. BG has won the yardage battle in all but one game this season, the opener against Tennessee which had a 47 yard difference. Going into the last game for each BG had a 54-33 explosive yard edge over the opposition while WM sat at 35-38, allowing three more plays of 20+ yards than it achieved. Both teams had permitted 5 drives of 80 yards or more, but while the Broncos had just 9 themselves the Falcons produced 17. This game means more to the visitor as Western still has division opponents Northern Illinois and Toledo remaining on the schedule. The winner of that three team race plays in the MAC Championship game. Bowling Green on the other hand finishes the regular season with a non-divisional Toledo team and Ball State. Those two contests as well as this one are the only MAC regular season revenge games for Dino Babers and his crew. We expect him to emphasize that fact to his team as a motivating factor. The Broncos just played the dregs of the conference Ohio, Miami, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. This is a huge step up game for the host.PLAY BOWLING GREEN

307 Baylor at Kansas State
Now that the Baylor starting QB is out for the season with a neck injury the Bears have turned into an afterthought in the national landscape. Even the rankings that came out yesterday have Baylor sitting on the sidelines for the Final Four Playoff. But as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. The new QB Jarrett Stidham may be better than any that have played the position over the past decade. The players have talked highly of him and his stats have been outstanding in mop up duty. Both teams are off a bye but with a new signal caller the extra time to prepare edge goes to the Bears.
Bill Snyder is one of the all-time great college coaches. He has been especially good in the underdog role. But this Wildcats team is just a shell of its earlier self as injuries have devastated this team, especially in the defensive backfield where Baylor can really take advantage. Kansas State is being out gained by 222 yards per contest in Big 12 action, not a good sign when facing the nation’s elite offense. 
PLAY BAYLOR

206 Air Force at Hawaii
The Falcons haven’t visited the Big Island since 2001. Air Force has Army on deck which is a much more important contest. 
Hawaii returns home after 4 of 5 games on the mainland. This is a team that has already faced Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State. The Warriors defended the option against New Mexico just two weeks ago. With 4 of the final 5 games at home we look for Hawaii to end the season strong. Starting with a victory on Saturday against Air Force.
PLAY HAWAII

321 Bowling Green at Kent State
The Falcons have moved the ball effectively against everyone. Producing yardage numbers of 532, 725, 536, 539, 579, 692 and 557 yards. That includes teams from the SEC and two from the Big 10, all on the road. Bowling Green has produced 49 explosive plays while allowing just 30. This team has had an amazing 16 drives of 80 yards or more while allowing only 5. The Falcons haven’t been stopped by anyone and we can’t see Kent State being an exception. 
Kent State defends the run well but that’s about the only positive for the Golden Flashes. Two weeks ago this team allowed 38 points and 518 yards to Toledo, a comparable team to the Falcons. Offensively the Flashes have been held to 3 against Illinois, 7 vs Minnesota, 7 to Toledo, 15 to Umass and just 20 against bottom feeder Miami Ohio. Kent has produced just 16 explosive plays on the season, less than a third of what BG has accomplished. Quite simply the Flashes don’t have the offensive ability to match points with the Falcons and the defense can’t control them.
PLAY BOWLING GREEN

102 Arkansas State at South Alabama

Have not been impressed with the Red Wolves who have failed by 21 points or more to the spread in 3 of 4 FBS contests. This is a team that went 1-3 ATS in the road favorite role in the first season of Blake Anderson’s tenure and was pounded at both USC and Toledo this year. Stepping down in class didn’t help them against Idaho last time out.South Alabama was beaten at Arkansas State last season 45-10, it’s worst defeat of the year. The last time the Jaguars played in Ladd-Peebles Stadium it was crushed by NC State 63-13. This will be a team on a mission here tonight and despite just 5 returning starters from a year ago we find value in the home dog. Despite being a substantial underdog in every game, this is a club that has been able to be competitive in explosive plays, something the Red Wolves have lacked. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA

359 Washington State at Oregon
We all know how dominant the Oregon Ducks have been the past few seasons. But there is one team that has had its number when it comes to covering the spread, the Washington State Cougars. The last five seasons the Cougs have cashed by margins of 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2, 20 and 15 1/2 points. In what looks to be a down year for Oregon we can see the Cougars taking this one to the wire. When it comes to explosive plays of 20 yards or better against FBS competition Washington State has produced 15 while allowing 14. The Oregon Ducks are at 20 for and 21 against. This team which has lived in the national spotlight has allowed more explosive plays than they themselves earned. Considering that the Ducks were a combined 56 1/2 point favorites in those games tells us that this is a highly overrated squad. We were on Oregon last week against Colorado and while it was a double digit cover we left feeling we may have been a bit lucky. Luck won’t be a factor here as this game will be much closer than the current line suggests.
PLAY WASHINGTON STATE

348 Massachusetts at Bowling Green
We were higher on UMass than just about anybody coming into the season but we have lessened our enthusiasm. We really think Frohnapfel is a quality signal caller but this team hasn’t put it all together to be the money maker we expected. The team crushed FIU last week while stepping down in class but this defense hasn’t shown any improvement. What’s more troubling is that the Minutemen have only produced one 80 yard or longer drive this season, giving up six in the meantime. This offense should have been explosive but hasn’t lived up to expectations.
Bowling Green has simply moved the ball against every opponent on the schedule. Putting up 536 yards or better against everyone. That includes a team from the SEC and two from the Big 10, conferences known for playing quality defense. As opposed to the Minutemen the Falcons already have 12 drives of 80 yards or longer while allowing only three. In a game where big plays will set the tone we will ride the hot handed Falcons as they continue to put up big numbers.
PLAY BOWLING GREEN

216 UNLV at Nevada
Wow, what an overreaction from one week ago. The Rebels pounded an FCS squad 80-8, and now money is pouring in on the Rebels and their first year coach hired straight from high school. We have to admit that the effort from the players this season is night and day from previous editions, but it’s not like the recruiting has made great strides in one summer. This is still a program with 2 win seasons in four of the last five years. UNLV had a magical year in 2013 when the team went 7-6 and went bowling. In that year the Rebels beat the Wolf Pack. In the last four years this program didn’t go bowling Nevada won by margins of 22, 5, 37 and 18 points. 
We were really impressed with the Wolf Pack last week. Going to Buffalo after playing at Texas A&M and having hated in-state rival UNLV on deck. Many thought it was a throwaway game for the Wolf Pack, but that wasn’t the case. Nevada not only played tough but won outright in what could have been a meaningless game. This is a program that has gone bowling in 5 of the last 6 years and has only one losing campaign in the last decade, the 2013 team who lost to the Rebels. Nevada is the better team and this line has overcompensated off one FCS win for UNLV.
PLAY NEVADA

170 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Third straight road game here for the Huskies after traveling to Ohio state and Boston College. In those two games Northern produced 190 and 153 yards against two elite defenses. While they will step down in class here this isn’t your traditional offensive powerhouse. The Huskies are 32-1 against the rest of the MAC but just 1-2 against Central Michigan. 
Central hasn’t won an FBS game this season but faced Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State. The combined yardage in those three games was 1203 to 1069 with the underdog Chippewas coming out ahead. Central lost the turnover battle in all three of those games. The Chippewas had three more explosive plays in those games than it allowed, pretty impressive for what was considered a middle of the road MAC school. While Northern has been excellent on the road and does have revenge here we will back the under the radar home dog.
PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN

316 Central Michigan at Michigan State

Very surprised by the shortness in this line as we have two sets of power ratings supporting numbers of 35 and 38. Central Michigan has faced Oklahoma State who had struggled offensively until last week, Monmouth and Syracuse which has been very injury prone at quarterback. While it’s an in-state game the Chippewas do have Northern Illinois on deck and the Huskies have major revenge for a home field loss a year ago. The last time Central played a Top 20 team on the road it lost at Michigan by 50 points in 2013. That team is very similar to the squad John Bonamego took over this year.Michigan State is 8-3 ATS installed as a double digit favorite, and 8-2 ATS when facing opposition from the state of Michigan. The Western Michigan Broncos stayed under the number opening week here but that was the game prior to Oregon for the Spartans. With only Purdue on deck there is no lookahead for Michigan State. Last week in a post Oregon situation the Spartans were favored by 24 1/2 vs Air Force. Now the line is only slightly higher against a team we rate 8 points worse than the fly boys. Big edge here for the host.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

156 UTSA at Oklahoma State
The Roadrunners went from being the most veteran team in college football to the youngest this year. Just five returning starters for UTSA. We went against this team a week ago because we weren’t buying into the competitive game against Arizona in the opener. Just as we predicted, the Kansas State Wildcats wore down this lack of quality depth squad, and won and covered for our backers. Now we have a team who has only been in the FBS for five years playing three straight games against power five conferences. 
Oklahoma State has underperformed to start the season, failing to cover by double digits against Central Michigan and Central Arkansas. So we have a motivated favorite with clear skill position edges, taking on a team that they beat by 30 and 21 points each of the last two years. With upcoming opponents Texas and Kansas State looking down from previous years the Roadrunners get the full attention of the Cowboys here. Under Mike Gundy the Cowboys are 28-15 ATS as home favorites.
PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

368 Pittsburgh at Akron
A year ago the Zips shocked Pitt on the road. A huge win for the Akron program and an embarrassment for the Pitt faithful. So the first thing many will say about this contest is Pittsburgh revenge. While that’s certainly true we look at it another way. Akron gained a great amount of confidence with that victory and knows they can play with the Panthers. Especially considering Pitt is without it’s best offensive player at running back. Pitt struggled with Youngstown State last week and we really like that Penguins squad.
Akron despite the score at Oklahoma really shut down the Sooners running game. The Zips brought in Power Five Conference transfers along the defensive line and the team is much better against the run. With strength on strength in the trenches we will gladly take the double digits at home with an Akron squad playing a huge out of conference opponent.
PLAY AKRON

357 San Diego State at California
Rocky Long is one of our favorite college football coaches. While others will avoid uncomfortable questions Long seems to relish them. At the Mountain West Conference media day he told us the only way a team from his conference would ever get into the National Championship Playoff would be if its expanded to eight teams. He rolled his eyes when he talked of the Power Five Conferences letting a team from outside in the four team playoff. After last weeks game against San Diego he said his team didn’t show anything, playing vanilla the whole game. 
Cal is just 3-10 SU & ATS at home under Sonny Dykes in his two years in Berkeley. He has another outstanding offense but his defense the last two years permitted 39.8 and 45.9 points per game. Not enamored laying double digits with a defense that can’t tackle.
PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE

369 Bowling Green at Maryland
The Falcons got better as the season went on a year ago and we feel the peak has yet to be reached. Looking to play as fast as possible the Falcons tired a bit as the game went along last week at Tennessee. Keep in mind the Bowling Green depth is nowhere near that of an SEC squad. 
While Maryland looked good last week we’re not buying the Terrapins laying this type of price. Maryland is a team that can’t be trusted as the squad still doesn’t have enough quality depth. Playing a team like Bowling Green can easily exploit that weakness. Don’t look for the Falcons to fade in this one as it goes down to the wire.
PLAY BOWLING GREEN