Cappers Sports Picks

796 Louisville at Syracuse

Tough spot here for the Cardinals who are off three tight games before hosting Virginia. Louisville had to go to overtime against Florida State, lost by two against Duke and followed that up with a one point win hosting Clemson. We all know it’s easier to shoot well from behind the arc at home, but on the road could be a different story here. Louisville attempts 43% of its shots from long range, and Syracuse allows opponents to take 48.1% of its shots from distance. So the Cardinals should get plenty of three point attempts, but the Orange are very good inside defensively. On the season Syracuse has held the opposition to just 30.1% shooting behind the arc at home.

PLAY SYRACUSE

743 Pacific at Santa Clara

Home loss revenge for the Tigers who dropped a double digit decision earlier. This should be a nice matchup for the visitor as Santa Clara permits 44.4% of shots attempted at the rim. The Pacific weakness is allowing 43.6% of opponents shots from beyond the arc, but this team doesn’t attempt a great deal of threes. 

The Broncos have had a very poor home court advantage all season, and have dropped 3 of 4 outright here lately.

PLAY PACIFIC

681 Ohio at Central Michigan

Simply can’t trust the Chippewas here to lay this type of number. Central has dropped 5 of 7 with one of the victories being by just four points. Host has also lost 2 of 4 SU lately at home. 

Ohio has lost four in a row themselves, but the talent level is much closer than the betting number represents.

PLAY OHIO 

859 South Alabama at Georgia State 

Home loss revenge for the Jaguars who dropped the earlier meeting 69-66 in mid-January. After losing five straight South Alabama has now won 3 of 5. 

The Panthers of Georgia State started conference action hot but have cooled off as of late. Dropping 4 of the last 7 games. Georgia State permits 45.2% of opponents shots to be taken from distance, which keeps the visitor in the game throughout. 

PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA

687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State

Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH

848 USC at Stanford

Trojans knocked off Stanford at home 77-66 where USC has played much better ball. But on the road this team is just 1-5 straight up on the season with the lone win coming at Washington State. A concern for USC here is mid-range shooting. The Trojans take 31.9% of its shots from that area, while Stanford forces opponents to take 30.7% of its shots from the least efficient area of the court. Stanford on the other hand attacks the rim with 44.9% of its shots close to the hoop, as opposed to the Trojans who only take 34.2% of its attempts from close range.Revenge for the Cardinal tonight.

PLAY STANFORD

503 Milwaukee at Indiana

In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

637 Duke at Louisville

With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. 

PLAY DUKE

563 Milwaukee at Chicago

Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

830 Cincinnati at Houston

Huge matchup in the American Conference on Sunday. 20-3 Cincinnati, the first place team, heads to Texas to take on the Houston Cougars. Interesting matchup as the Bearcats are more than willing to let opponents shoot from behind the arc. Cincinnati is allowing opponents to take 44.3% of its shots from long range. Houston on the other hand takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. That should mean many chances for three pointers from the host. The Bearcats shoot way to many midrange shots, 35.6% from that low percentage area. Houston’s defense forces opponents to take 29.5% from that part of the court, allowing just 30.4% accuracy. In this perimeter game we favor the host who is attempting to break the conference first place tie with the Bearcats.

PLAY HOUSTON

758 Long Beach State at Cal Poly

A down year for the 49ers is looking worse by the day as Long Beach brings a six game losing streak into this contest. This is a team that is 1-10 straight up on the road this season, and yet is favored here.

Cal Poly forces opponents to attempt 29.1% of attempts from midrange, while for some reason Long Beach State takes a whopping 41.1% of its shots from that low efficiency area. That in itself tells us all about the wrong team being favored here.

PLAY CAL POLY

685 Utah at UCLA

The Utes have won four of five on the road as of late, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Arizona. UCLA has dropped five of seven overall, and four of seven here at home. 

Utah takes 45.4% of its shots from downtown, and UCLA allows 41.3% of opponent shots from that area. So the Utes should get plenty of good looks from its favorite spot on the floor. 

UCLA prefers taking shots at the rim, attempting 44.5% of its shots in that range. But Utah forces opponents out of that area, permitting just 31.9% attempts close to the basket. 

PLAY UTAH

679 Dayton at Rhode Island

Flyers have only lost three road games this entire season, but the third came last time out at St Louis. In that game Dayton was held to a conference low in scoring in a 73-60 defeat. Rhode Island has dropped three of four as of late with the lone win coming against that same St Louis team. 

Dayton allows the opposition to shoot 42.9% of its shots behind the arc, but the Rams shoot a terrible 26.3% from that distance. The Flyers also force the opposition into attempting 29.5% of opponents shots from the least efficient area of midrange. Dayton itself shoots an excellent 73.9% at the rim while Rhode Island allows opponents to attempt 40.2% of its shots from that area. Very good matchup for the Flyers.

PLAY DAYTON

658 Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State

Two teams with disappointing seasons playing out the conference string. This is the fifth straight road game for the Panthers, who have dropped five straight away from home. Milwaukee permits a whopping 45.5% of opponents shots to be taken from beyond the arc, while that plays right into the Vikings hands at home. Cleveland State takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. Milwaukee also takes 29.2% of its shots from midrange, while only forcing the opposition to take 20.5% from that poor shooting area. 

PLAY CLEVELAND STATE

607 Virginia Tech at Clemson

Tech off a rare home loss as Louisville beat them 72-64 on Monday. That’s the only home defeat for the Hokies this year. This is a very good matchup for the visitor as Virginia Tech forces the opposition to beat them from deep, something the Tigers haven’t fared well in doing. Opponents take 49.3% of all shots against the Hokies from 3 point range, but Clemson shoots just 32.2% from behind the arc. Clemson does shoot well from the paint at 64.7% but the Hokies only permit 28.2% of opponent shots to come from that range. 

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

603 Michigan State at Illinois

Short and sweet the Spartans have been excellent coming off of a loss. Now 61% ats after a defeat and the same 61% off back to back losses. This team has much more talent than the Illini, and the host's home court value is weak.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

534 Atlanta at Washington

Third game in four days for the Hawks who are off five straight games on the west coast. This is a one game stopover before returning to Atlanta for a seven game home stand. This should be a throwaway game for a team just playing out the schedule with no postseason expectations.

Washington is rested and at home for the third straight game. This game is sandwiched in between games against the Milwaukee Bucks, so this is the contest the Wizards will be focused on. Great situational play for the host.

PLAY WASHINGTON

507 Milwaukee at Washington

The Bucks have been outstanding in seeking revenge for an in season loss. Last game out they kept the winners coming with a 105-92 upset of the Raptors. Milwaukee lost to Washington 113-106 on January 11th. WE will back the best team in the east against a disappointing Wizards squad.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

857 Yale at Harvard

Yale has won 11 of 12 as of late with the only loss coming on the road at Duke. The visitor should dominate at the rim shooting 67.7% on 40.2% of the teams shots. Harvard permits 95% shooting on dunks, and Yale averages 10.7% of their shots taken at that spot. 

Yale defends the 3 very well allowing only 31% shooting from long range, while Harvard takes a whopping 42.6% of its shots from downtown.

PLAY YALE

638 Connecticut at Central Florida

This is not a good matchup for the Huskies. It lost at home to the Golden Knights 65-53 earlier in January. The problem for the visitor here is It has major problems stopping the opposition down low. UConn permits 8.9% of opponents shots on dunks, and 42.2% of opponents shots at the rim. UCF on the other hand feasts down low with 13.3% of shots being dunks, and limiting opponents to shooting just 51.5% at the rim. Unless the Huskies dominate from behind the arc, in which UCF allows only 32.1%, the host should run right buy this line with plenty of time to spare.

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

822 Illinois at Minnesota

The Fighting Illini spanked the Gophers at home 95-68 two weeks ago. That’s one of two wins for Illinois in the past nine games. 

Minnesota is 11-1 straight up at home on the season. The host has a huge edge at the rim, attempting 42.8% of its shots there, while Illinois allows 66.3% from the field in that area. The Gophers force the opposition to shoot 29.8% of its shots in a low efficiency area of the court, and the Illini only shoot 30.5% from the area in front of the arc and outside the paint.Minnesota gains its revenge in a big way here.

PLAY MINNESOTA

639 Nevada at UNLV

The Rebels just aren’t a good basketball team. The only reason it has gotten off to a decent start is because UNLV played the worst teams early in the schedule. This is a team that allows opponents to take 40.3% of its shots at the rim. 

Nevada shoots 67% at the rim on the season, so the Wolfpack should get any shot near the basket it wants. Nevada permits 41.7% of opponent shots behind the arc, but UNLV isn’t that accurate from long distance. We would much rather have a team that can dominate inside, as opposed to a team that would need a hot game from distance to be competitive. This is also a major revenge game for the Wolfpack who lost to the Rebels in a college football upset this year.

PLAY NEVADA

851 Duke at Notre Dame

Irish have dropped four straight and 6 of 7 as it hosts the most talented team in the country. This is a terrible matchup for Notre Dame who attempts 44.4% of its shots behind the arc. Duke holds the opposition to just 28.9% accuracy from downtown. 

Duke on the other hand takes 16.6% of its attempts on dunks and 44.3% overall at the rim. Once again, bad matchup for the Irish.

PLAY DUKE

842 Iona at Fairfield

Terrible spot for the Gaels who were good to us last time out against Rider. Iona is only 1-7 straight up on the road this season and now has been installed as a slight favorite.

Fairfield has lost four straight games, and are on the road for three more games after this one. This should be an all in game for the host. Fairfield is a terrible shooting team from the dead range at just 24.3% away from the rim and inside the arc. But the Gaels don’t force the opposition to shoot from that range. In fact, Fairfield is a better shooting team everywhere else. Because of the importance of getting this win we will back the host Stags.

PLAY FAIRFIELD

753 Cal Santa Barbara at Long Beach State

The Gauchos are 14-4 overall on the season, and have won by 56, 10, and 19 points after its first three losses. UCSB dropped an embarrassing 81-60 contest at Fullerton State last time out. 

Long Beach State has dropped two straight and has really struggled defensively as of late. In the past four games the 49ers have permitted 86, 92, 70 and 77 points. This team allows 37.5% of its shots at the rim. Opponents are making a whopping 62.4% from that short range. UCSB has feasted in that area with 63.2% field goals from around the rim.

PLAY CAL SANTA BARBARA

751 Charlotte at UTEP

Simply don’t trust this Miners squad laying points. This team has a severe lack of depth as seven players average at least 52% of the playing time minutes. This is also a team that take too many bad shots, as 37.2% of its offense comes from the dead zone. This team has also lost 6 of 7 straight up heading into this contest. The lone victory came by a single point. 

Charlotte is nothing to write home about, losing 12 of 15 overall. But this club has played better as of late with two wins in its last fiver games. Only one of those losses was by more than six points. Off a 45 point blowout loss to Texas San Antonio, no body wants these 49ers. That gives us great point spread value.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

716 Florida Atlantic at Florida International

Quick rematch for the Owls who just lost to FIU 78-74 on Wednesday. That’s four straight losses for Florida Atlantic, a team that just doesn’t have the talent to take easy shots. Just 25.4% of its shots is in the paint, while 29.5% are from the dead, zone, long two pointers. 

FIU on the other hand leads the country with just 8.2% of its shots coming from outside the paint, and inside the arc. 

We much prefer the FIU game than that of its in-state opponent. And the line is very favorable.

PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

687 Marshall at Southern Miss

The Thundering Herd takes much better percentage shots than its opponent today. 10.9% ducks, 38.9% at the rim and 42.3% from downtown. The Golden Eagles by comparison shoot 36.5% from what I consider the dead zone, long two point tries. That provides a huge efficiency edge for Marshall who is off back to back road losses to Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. 

Southern Miss only has two wins over the Top 160 rated squads, and its most impressive win came in game two against SMU. 

PLAY MARSHALL

684 Oakland at Illinois Chicago

The Golden Grizzlies attempt 45.8% of shots from downtown, but the team just doesn’t take the ball to the basket. That’s a tough combination when playing on the road. Oakland is 4-7 SU on the road but just two of those victories came by more than two points.

Illinois Chicago was good to us Thursday against Detroit, and we have no problem riding the Flames once again. This team is 8-2 SU at home this year, and has excellent offensive efficiency. Shooting just 14.5% of its shots from outside the rim and inside the three point line.

PLAY ILLINOIS CHICAGO

629 Hofstra at Towson

Want no part of Towson here who can’t get to the rim and doesn’t shoot enough from long range. Just 1.5% of its shots are dunks, while attempting just 29.1% of shots from three point range. 

The Tigers are coming off back to back wins, but dropped six straight before that. This team is just 3-4 at home this season, dropping 3 of the last 4. 

Hofstra has won 15 straight games, including six straight away from home. 

PLAY HOFSTRA

768 VMI at The Citadel

The Keydets allow 37.5% success behind the arc. That’s a tough way to make a living, especially on the road. With The Citadel taking a whopping 54.1% of its shot from downtown, this could really be problematic for the road team. 

The Citadel is very efficient offensively shooting just 12.9% of its shots between the rim and the three point line. It’s the worst efficient shot on the basketball court. 

VMI is 1-9 straight up on the road this season, mainly because its so hard to win away from home when the opposition kills you from behind the arc.

PLAY THE CITADEL

853 Buffalo at Kent State

Bulls coming in off a loss to Northern Illinois 77-75. Both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come on the road. While this team hasn’t looked quite as good since conference season started, there is now value on this clear MAC favorite. This team is fourth in the country in attempted shots from outside the paint and inside the arc, the lowest efficiency area on the court. 

Kent State is having a terrific season as well, but this is a step up game for the Golden Flashes. Kent’s adjusted defensive efficiency is the key here with a 106.0 as opposed to the Bulls defense of 95.2. Should be a good game to watch, but the Bulls have the much better talent.

PLAY BUFFALO

623 Tulsa at Cincinnati

The Golden Hurricane led the Bearcats by 6 points with just 1:16 left in the earlier meeting. Cincinnati stormed back and beat Tulsa 70-65 in overtime. 

Tulsa averages 40.7% of its shots in the paint vs the Bearcats 31.6%. What we really don’t like is that Cincinnati shoots way too many mid-range shots with 36.8% of its attempts coming outside the rim and inside the arc. Those shots are the lowest efficiency shots. Much prefer the visitor in a revenge setting.

PLAY TULSA

531 Portland at Oklahoma City

Third game in four nights for the host off a successful road trip. Portland has owned this series the last couple years and will enter this game confident. Short and sweet we expect this one to come down to the last shot.

PLAY PORTLAND

855 Virginia Tech at North Carolina 

Huge pace dichotomy here as the Hokies are slow as possible and the Tar Heels want to run. Virginia Tech is excellent in the half court while North Carolina prefers easy baskets. The host doesn’t shoot a lot of threes and the visitor is very good at preventing points in the paint. The matchup favors the road dog here and the price is favorable. 

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH 

314 New England at Kansas City

This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. 

Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. 

The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

312 LA Rams at New Orleans

Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. 

PLAY NEW ORLEANS

578 Boston at Atlanta

Third game in four games for the Celtics who played last night hosting Memphis. Atlanta on the other hand has been resting the past three days. Boston won both the earlier meetings by 18 and 21 points, so no urgency for the Celtics to run up the score here. 

The Hawks have played pretty good ball at home as of late with a 5-2 straight up record with wins over Oklahoma City and Denver. Nice spot and price for the home dog here.

PLAY ATLANTA

 527 Milwaukee at Memphis

Third game in four days for the Bucks, while Memphis is rested. This is a revenge game for Milwaukee after losing at home to the Grizzlies 116-113 in mid-November. But before you dismiss this as a nothing game for the Bucks, take a look at what Milwaukee has done after losing the previous meeting this year to an opponent. Lost to Boston on the first of November, beat the Celtics by 13 on the road. Lost to Portland November 6th, beat the Blazers by 43 at home two weeks later. Lost to New York the first of December, beat the Knicks by 14 and 16 in a home and home during Christmas time. Lost to Miami December 22nd, beat the Heat by 38 points last night. None of the Bucks starters played more than 27 minutes last night, as 13 players swat least 7 minutes of action. 

When Memphis beat the Bucks earlier, it was in the midst of a 7-1 Grizzlies winning streak. The current Memphis run is losses in 13 of 16 games. It’s payback time for the visitor.

868 Syracuse at Duke

The Orangemen have faltered when stepping up in class, playing a very weak overall schedule coming into league play. This is just the third true road game for Syracuse.

We rate Duke three points better than any other team as of right now, and we catch them off a tooth and nail last minute come from behind victory over Florida State. That was the wakeup call the Blue Devils needed. The last time this team was in a battle was an 89-87 loss to Gonzaga, which was followed by a 21 point win over Indiana. We look for a big bounce back from the Blue Devils tonight.

PLAY DUKE

302 Indianapolis at Kansas City

Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. 

Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback.

Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

614 Green Bay at Detroit

Wrong team favored here as we find a Detroit team that’s in the top 10 in three point attempts, taking on an opponent ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Green Bay has a winning record but have played poorly on the road with just two wins against the 273rd and 295th ranked teams. Detroit should be favored here and the Titans will played the preferred slow tempo.

PLAY DETROIT

532 Orlando at Utah

Third game in four days and fourth in six for the Magic who must play in altitude tonight. Tough spot for any team, especially an east coast squad playing all these games away from home. 

Utah returns home from a four game road trip themselves, losing to the two best teams in the east in the process. The Jazz have played by far the toughest schedule in the league so far, which will lighten up quickly with the Magic, Lakers, Bulls and Pistons on the radar. We look for the Jazz to catch fire the next week and finally blow out lesser competition.

PLAY UTAH

607 Akron at Central Michigan

The Zips have been a consistent frontrunner in MAC basketball for years now, making the postseason tournaments on a regular basis. This is the type of team we are looking to back in a near pick ‘em road contest.

Central Michigan has an impressive record, but that has come against the 348th toughest schedule in the country. The Chips haven’t shown up very often when stepping up in class, and this will be a very tough spot for the host. With Central having what seems to be an impressive record, we are getting a great deal on the number here.

PLAY AKRON

589 New York at Portland

Rested Knicks are about to play its opening game of a back to back situation, as the team travels to Oakland to face the Warriors tomorrow. Portland on the other hand is playing its third game in four nights, off a solid win over the red hot Rockets. Great scheduling spot here for the underdog who will go all out tonight, with less of a chance to win tomorrow against Golden State.

PLAY NEW YORK

824 Memphis at Houston

The Tigers are one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball, which is great when playing at home in front of its home crowd. Pace doesn’t work so well on the road, especially when the more talented team is the host. Memphis has only played one true road game this season. Houston has the defense to dictate the pace and make the Tigers fight for points.

PLAY HOUSTON

104 Seattle at Dallas

The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. 

Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. 

Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. 

PLAY DALLAS

277 Texas & Georgia in New Orleans

The Longhorns lost just two of its last 11 regular season games. The defeats coming to Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia by a single point. Texas also split against Oklahoma losing the conference championship. Tom Herman has been an excellent underdog regardless of where he has coached. Off his worst loss of the season we expect the best out of this Texas squad. 

Georgia is an elite team that deserved to be in the final four. It was even more pronounced after Notre Dame was pounded by Clemson. But the question to be asked is how is this team going to get up to play Texas here, after being so close to playing for the national title. This is the least important bowl game in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has the superior talent, but winning by this margin is very questionable. We know what we are going to get out of the Longhorns, not so much out of the Bulldogs.

PLAY TEXAS

275 LSU & UCF in Glendale

The Tigers were a bit overrated all season but still ended up cashing half its games. When breaking down how it did against elite opponents LSU went 1-3 SU with the only victory coming against Georgia in a game with a +4 turnover advantage. Losses to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M were understandable. 

Central Florida obviously played a much easier schedule, which is the main reason the winning streak is still intact. Last year the Knights beat fellow SEV squad Auburn in the Peach Bowl 34-27. But the Tigers chain they were disinterested in playing. The key to this game in Central’s ability to run the football against this very talented LSU front seven. We believe UCF can score enough in this game to take it to the wire. The loss of QB Milton hurts, but the backup has had plenty of reps in the last month. Too many points here for the Tigers to lay.

PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA

265 Northwestern & Utah in San Diego

The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS the last decade in bowl games, winning 3 of the last 4 in straight up fashion. Pat Fitzgerald is an excellent coach who gets the best out of his players when not at a major talent disadvantage. Wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa, should prepare his team today.

Kyle Whittingham is also a coach that deserves accolades. His only losses this year were to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, three teams that went bowling. But when looking at quality wins the best we can come up with are Stanford and BYU. We have these two clubs rated much closer than the current number, which is why we feel the victor gets the win by a field goal or less. Plenty of value on the Big 10 here.

PLAY NORTHWESTERN

261 Michigan State & Oregon in Santa Clara

Mark Dantonio is a coach we are looking to back this time of year. His teams are 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl season as of late, with the only loss coming at the hands of Nick Saban and Alabama. 

We have no problem fading a PAC12 team in this price range, as the conference as a whole has been a major disappointment. There is some excitement in Eugene with Justin Herbert returning behind center for another season, but he wasn’t overly impressive this year. 

Michigan State is the better coached team and gets the victory here.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

315 Cleveland at Baltimore

Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play.

While the Ravens need a victory to make the playoffs, the Browns have their own motivation. With a win Cleveland can end the season with a winning record, something that didn’t look possible under the previous coach. When looking at stats for the past six weeks it’s the Browns, not the Ravens who have been the slightly better team. This game should be decided by a field goal either way.

PLAY CLEVELAND

Miami at Buffalo

Money continues to pour in on the Bills, as many feel the warm blooded Dolphins will simply throw in the towel and not mentally show up in Buffalo. But keep in mind these are professionals and more importantly divisional rivals. This line has risen at least two points based on something that is based on hearsay. 

Let’s take a look at home the Dolphins have done going north the last two games of the season. Over the last decade Miami is 8-2 ATS traveling to a cold weather climate, 7-2 ATS when playing that game outside a dome. 

Buffalo has been better than many thought, but not to the extent of this number. The Bills may in fact win, but the cover is seriously in doubt.

PLAY MIAMI 

313 Jacksonville at Houston

Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play.

Jacksonville’s defense has been outstanding for most of the season. And now Bortles the much more mobile quarterback is back behind center. It’s clear that the Jags have had offensive line problems all season, with a mobile QB behind center Jacksonville should find yards earlier to come by. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE

256 Notre Dame & Clemson at Arlington

Just about everyone we respect in the gambling community rates Notre Dame outside of the top four by power ratings. Georgia would have been a ten point favorite over the Irish on a neutral field. So while Notre Dame went undefeated, keep in mind the only real team it beat was Michigan in the season opener. 

Clemson has the postseason pedigree that the Irish lack.  The Tigers have played in the national semi-final each of the last three seasons. The defense could be the best in the nation even with the drug suspensions. In our eyes the starting quarterback is the most pro ready signal caller in the country, even without starting the season behind center. Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama are elite, Notre Dame is on another lower level.

PLAY CLEMSON

245 Arkansas State & Nevada in Arizona

Wrong team is favored in our eyes as the Red Wolves take much better care of the ball that the Wolf Pack. Arkansas State lost the turnover battle just twice all season. Arkansas State has posted eight straight winning seasons, with this being the eighth straight bowl game for the Red Wolves. The final four games of the season saw this squad allow just 54 combined points.

Nevada lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 FBS games. Keep in mind this club won just three games last year and haven’t been to a bowl since 2015. Wrong team favored.

PLAY ARKANSAS STATE

232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan

From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football.

Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits.

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565 Portland at Utah

Quick turnaround revenge for the Blazers here who just lost recently to the Jazz 120-90. That’s its only loss in the last five games. 

Utah is off its best week of the season sharing the ball with 65 combined assists the past two games, which may be the reason this line is inflated. 

We expect a lower scoring game with the Blazers taking this to the wire.

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111 NY Giants at Indianapolis

The Giants have been one of the best road underdogs for years. Now with Indy fighting for the playoffs the line is inflated. Playing against teams that need to win is a great way to increase your bankroll near the end of the season. Nobody wants the Giants here, which is why the value is on the dog.

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118 Green Bay at New York Jets

Rodgers is expected to play but it’s clear he’s not himself. The offensive line continues to be banged up, and yet the markets haven’t caught up to the 2018 Packers.

The Jets have played much better as of late and are a dangerous home dog. We expect this line to go down towards game time. We expect the outright home dog winner.

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119 Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Browns love has gotten completely out of hand. Yes they are playing better, but this line is ridiculous. Cleveland has gone from the hunted to the hunter, and it’s a role this team hasn’t had in years. 

Cincinnati has dominated this series, and you know the line has been a main source of motivation. Cleveland is better, but this line is completely out of whack.

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124 Baltimore at LA Chargers

Third road game in four weeks for the Ravens, and its fifth game in a different city in five weeks. Baltimore has just come off the poor defenses of the Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals. Five of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now it must travel three time zones to face a Chargers defense with a healthy Joey Bosa. Since the quarterback move the Ravens have had success running the football and playing quality defense, but it will not be able to have that same ground game against Los Angeles. Because of its success on the ground the passing game has been overlooked. That likely won’t be the case here as Baltimore will have to put the ball in the air, and Jackson hasn’t shown that ability at this stage in his young career.

We all know the Chargers have very little in home field value, but even if this team is awarded just one point at home, the line would say these teams are equal. And if you’ve watched these two you would know that’s just not right. The Chargers have been home four of the last six weeks and have extra time to prepare off that Kansas City victory. The Ravens offense hasn’t been tested, it will be here.

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224 Houston at Army

The Cougars are without its excellent quarterback and one of the top picks in the upcoming draft in Ed Oliver. The word we are getting out of Texas is that this team is not overly excited to be playing in its own state. The Cougars also played in this bowl just four years ago.

Army had an outstanding season when compared to preseason expectations. Military schools have been big money makers in bowl season historically. The line contunues to go up on this game and we want to get it before it hits the key numbers of 6 and 7. Even though we have Army winning by double digits, it's a better value now as opposed to what we will see at game time.

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222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham

Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. 

Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis.

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215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa

The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. 

Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host.

The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher.

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213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas

The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game.

San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. 

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777 Rider at Washington State

We feel the opener of Rider being the slight favorite was the correct line, as Washington State has played the easiest schedule in the country. This Cougar team ranks 256th in defensive efficiency, which is really bad when playing such poor opposition. 

Rider is by far the best team in its conference, and is thrilled to be taking on a PAC 12 team on the road. Both teams prefer the fast pace but Rider has the better overall talent. This team has already played at Central Florida and West Virginia, so it won’t be intimidated here.

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332 New Orleans at Carolina

Just as you would expect, NFL defenses are starting to have success against the high powered offenses of the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. It’s only a matter of time until sharp minds make enough adjustments to give their own teams a chance at success. Look at how well the Ravens are doing as of late with the old school method of running the football and playing great defense.

New Orleans is a terrific team, but this line is simply too high. Not only is it on the road against a divisional opponent, but it’s in front of a Monday Night Football crowd. Added to this situation is that this is the Panthers Super Bowl. A loss here and Carolina is done for the season. Live home dog on Monday night as we expect Carolina to play its best game of the season.

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304 Houston at NY Jets

The Texans have been overrated for most of the season as the advanced stats don’t agree with the game outcomes. We took advantage of that knowledge last week as we backed the Colts, and we will do so once again here. This team has big named players, but as a whole rates as an average NFL squad. 

The Jets aren’t world beaters but they are a team that knows it needs to, play its best ball to compete. With a touchdown home underdog that’s exactly what we are looking for. We will take the generous points in what we expect to be a low scoring affair.

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203 Tulane & Louisiana at Orlando

Louisiana lost its conference championship to Appalachian State, and failed to make its preferred bowl in New Orleans. Louisiana had made that bowl game its own with it becoming a goal before the season. Now it must travel to Orlando, which isn’t a bad second choice. That said, the team wasn’t overly excited about it early on, which may give us a nice edge here. Keep in mind the Rain’ Cajuns have been bowling five of the last seven years. 

Tulane is a 6-6 team that hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013. This is a team that wants to end the season with a win and finish with a winning record. Teams entering bowls at 6-6 have been a very nice point spread play. In that last bowl game the Green Wave lost to this Louisiana team 24-21, so there is some revenge in mind. 

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301 Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City

Finally, finally get a quality game on the Thursday card. We’ve talked all season about home non-divisional teams having a huge advantage, but the media just looks at the overall numbers. The vast majority of home success comes from the two opponents not knowing each other well. That’s not the case with divisional rivals who play each other twice a year. While Andy Reid is clearly the better coach, having this game on Thursday actually hurts the Chiefs, as it cuts down on his ability to put in a full game plan. There is also the situation of Kansas City going to overtime Sunday, and playing on a short week. Without getting into specifics, it’s a really poor point spread proposition. 

We saw last week how a team without a passing game can beat these Chiefs, the Chargers have the ability to beat you through the air and on the ground. And we all know Los Angeles has the clearly better defense. Let’s get this one out now as we expect this line to move come game day.

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606 Colorado at New Mexico

Great spot to take the Lobos is one of the strongest home courts in college basketball. It also helps that this team was beaten by a combined 60 points in its last two games. It’s also a huge game for the host as power five teams rarely travel to The Pit. If Manigault plays this line is an exceptional bargain, regardless we like the host.

Colorado is 7-1 on the season, but six of those games came at home. 

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107 Indianapolis at Houston

While you rarely find point spread value on a team in a must win situation, the Colts have plenty of value here. While Houston stands at 9-3 on the season with a comfortable three game divisional lead, the Colts are 6-6 and sit right out of the wildcard playoff spot. The last time these two met the Colts had this game sandwiched between the champion Eagles and the former champion Patriots. That matchup with Houston was won by the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis. But the Colts are playing much better ball since, and while the Texans have run off eight straight victories, the wins have not been impressive. 

The Texans so far this season have played just two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now. The Patriots opening week and the Cowboys in game five. In fact, as of right now the Texans don’t play another team that is currently in the playoffs the rest of the year. 

The Colts are just as good as this Houston team but Indy hasn’t had the same type of luck. We prefer Frank Reich to Bill O’Brien anytime, and the Texans come into this game fat and happy. Great time to grab the Colts.

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109 Carolina at Cleveland

Ron Rivera has taken over the defense and he’s always been very aggressive in his play calling. Therefore we expect a lot of blitzing from the Panthers, which should really give Baker Mayfield problems. 

The Browns rookie has been very comfortable when in a clean pocket, but his numbers have really gone down under pressure. The Panthers are in a must win situation here while the Browns continue to try to turn this franchise around. Cheap number on the visitor. 

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707 Washington at Cleveland

With or without John Wall, we like the Wizards here. Washington is playing excellent team ball right now which hasn’t been the case most of this year. The team is running and getting easy baskets, which should continue tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are short handed with the trade yesterday, and the team has a few key players who may not play tonight. It’s tough to keep up with a more talented team in the second of a back to back situation, it’s even worse playing short handed. Cleveland just doesn’t have the playmakers to get into a track meet here.

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502 Golden State at Cleveland

Playoff revenge for the Cavaliers. Not really, as this just isn’t the same team as a year ago. But it would be a nice feather in the young Cavs hats if they could make this a game. And we believe they have that ability. Cleveland has gotten up to play certain teams this year, and the Warriors fit that scenario. Golden State continues to try to round into form as Curry has returned to the lineup. But this team continues to struggle with consistency. This line is based on past Warriors editions, and not the team on the court now. Even in better years Golden State has been poor in the role of large favorites against weak opposition. The Cavaliers are playing much better ball since the coaching change and veteran players have or will be traded. The young nucleus is gaining confidence and the wins are starting to show. Let’s take the young home squad to keep this one close.

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379 Washington at Philadelphia

Redskins are getting healthier by the week while the Eagles continue to play short handed, especially in the defensive backfield. When looking at the year to date numbers it’s clear that this line is too high. If you would just look at these stats from a Team A and Team B standpoint, and disregarded the team names, the dog would be a clear play. With the Skins being overlooked we will gladly take the points with the nearly equal team.

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502 Oklahoma City at Detroit

Big step up in quality opponent here for the Thunder who are off Cleveland and Atlanta, easy wins by 17 and 24 points. While Oklahoma City is the better rested team, it’s hard to practice well off blowout wins.

Detroit is playing well and staying well below the national radar. That gives us a nice value with the home dog against a former MVP and the household name of the Thunder.

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376 Minnesota at New England

The Vikings are coming off its two most important games of the season against Chicago and Green Bay, with a Monday Night Football contest at Seattle on deck. This non-conference affair is the least important game on the remaining schedule. Rhodes was injured last time out and he’s the glue of this defense, he says he is going to play but the doctors aren’t in agreement. Even if he goes he will not be the same player as we have come to expect.

New England is by far the best December team in the league. Year in and year out this team gets better as the season goes along. There is also a major positive trend of New England laying less than a touchdown at home. The Pats came off a bye last week to face the Jets, and have lowly Miami on deck. This is a great spot for the host.

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359 Cleveland at Houston

Obviously the Browns have been a much better team after making the coaching changes. So you can dismiss most of the year to date stats. This is a team that has stockpiled high draft picks and is an up and coming team.

Houston on the other hand is playing on a short week after a statement win over Tennessee on Monday Night Football. Not to mention the winning streak the Texans are on. With Indianapolis, the Jets on Sunday Night Football, and visiting the Super Bowl Champion Eagles on deck, this is a major flat spot in the schedule for the host.

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361 Buffalo at Miami

The Bills have been considered the worst team in the league for much of this season. But now with a dual threat quarterback behind center this team is on the rise. After back to back victories over the Jets and Jags, this is a confident bunch. The defense is one of the best units in the league, and now doesn’t have to carry the weight of the offense.

Miami won three straight games to start the season, but have dropped 6 of 8 since. One of those victories went to overtime and the other was a seven point home win over the Jets. Miami has a nice home advantage early in the season when the weather in southern Florida is hot and muggy, that’s not the case this time of year. Over the last five years Miami is just 4-10-1 ATS its last three home games of the season.

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332 Akron at South Carolina

A disappointing season for the Zips comes to a close with an added game at South Carolina. Because of the opening game at Nebraska being cancelled the Zips needed to take this game to fill out the schedule. With a four win season Akron has no way of going to the postseason, so its hard to understand the emotion here with a four game losing streak on the line. 

South Carolina is off a loss to rival Clemson, but the Gamecocks actually played pretty well in covering that number. In fact, South Carolina has cashed three straight FBS games as of late. With the future looking brighter for the host we can really see this team motivated to end the season with a blowout victory. The offense has been rolling and the defense steps way down in class. 

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702 Minnesota at Cleveland

Third game in four days for the Timberwolves who are off back to back wins over Chicago and Brooklyn. After this contest the schedule toughens up with San Antonio, Boston and Houston, three really talented teams who have underperformed thus far. Minnesota is riding high after getting rid of its malcontent player, but we feel its a short success streak.

Cleveland’s young players are starting to believe in themselves. Collin Sexton has been terrific since being inserted in the starting lineup, and looks like a value bet to win rookie of the year. Ever since LeBron James came to town this team has renewed confidence. Wins over two good teams in Philadelphia and Houston has this team playing much better than early in the year. We look for the outright upset here.

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510 New York at Memphis

Knicks coach David Fizdale returns to his old stomping grounds tonight as the Knicks visit the Grizzlies. He was unceremoniously fired a year ago as he and Marc Gasol simply couldn’t get along. New York just beat the Celtics and the Pelicans which keeps this line low. But this is a 6-14 team on the season and the schedule has been rough for the visitors as of late. This is the fourth game in six days for the visitor, all in different cities. In fact this is the 14th game in which New York has had to fly, playing its last back to back home games in October.

Memphis had a nice winning streak snapped Friday in Las Angeles losing in overtime to the Clippers. We look for the Grizz to extend its seven game home winning streak in this series.

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182 Utah State at Boise State

The Aggies have gotten a lot of well deserved publicity this season by blowing out lesser opponents. But in looking back at the schedule this club has only played two decent opponents, Michigan State and BYU. Each of those games were played while fully rested. The Spartans in the opening game and BYU off a bye. Coming off games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, this team isn’t prepared to step up to this level. Boise State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series.

Boise State faced Troy, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Nevada, BYU and Fresno State this season. This club has been tested much more than the Aggies. We back the home favorite here.

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714 Boston at Dallas

Second game of a back to back for the Celtics who won in Atlanta last night. Boston has lost outright by 8 and 12 points in the other two back to back second games this month. If fact, Boston has played six games in five different cities including tonight over the last nine days. 

Dallas is well rested with the last two days off after knocking off Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Mavs have been home since Tuesday and don’t play again on the road until next Wednesday. Major scheduling advantage here for the host as the Celtics continue to be overrated in the early going.

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139 Virginia at Virginia Tech

Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. 

The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back.

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111 Colorado State at Air Force

This is truly a rivalry game as neither team has enough wins to go bowling this year. The Rams defense was horrendous in the early part of the schedule, but since getting into conference play has been better. Last year the Rams were a 10 point favorite in this contest, that’s a 24 1/2 point change in line from two teams that aren’t good enough to go bowling. This is also a big drop in opponent strength after facing Utah State and Nevada the past two weeks. Air Force just doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this size.

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519 Memphis at San Antonio

The Grizzlies have become a great defensive team, and in a league that has forgotten about that part of the game, playing Memphis is becoming a chore. Much like in college football, where you can ride a team that plays defense in an offensive conference. Teams are so used to playing a certain pace that if that pace changes the team is lost. And the best part is that those type of teams don’t get the national attention. Which leads us to a better line and more value. Let’s back that defensive team tonight as Memphis cashes easily.

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101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan

We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. 

Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory.

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457 Minnesota at Chicago

Must win game for the Vikings who trail the Bears in the standings. Minnesota has won the last three meetings in this series by 44 total points. Coming off a bye week with Chicago, Green Bay and New England on deck, this is a do or die game for the visitor. Minnesota is 13-7 ATS as a road dog under Zimmer.

After facing the Lions, Bills and Jets, this is a major step up game for the host. The Bears also have a short week on deck as it travels to Detroit to face Lions revenge on Thanksgiving. 

Better team off a bye catching points. Count us in.

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470 Oakland at Arizona

Wanted to wait on late information for this one, so we missed out on the better numbers. Nonetheless we feel like there is still plenty of value. We’ve all heard of the tension in Oakland with the players infighting and disagreeing with management. Well in addition the Raiders took two days off of practice because of the air conditions in the Oakland area. Instead of taking the team to a place with better air conditions, they did not practice. That tells be all I need to know about this organization. 

Arizona has faced the toughest slate of pass rushers this season, now take on a team that simply cannot sack the quarterback. Let’s get this one in now because we expect this line to continue to rise.

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385 UAB at Texas A&M

Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. 

A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. 

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327 Virginia at Georgia Tech

Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the option offense, facing it the last two seasons against these Yellow Jackets, and for many years against Air Force when he was at BYU. This defense has held the opposition to only 38.3% successful plays this season. Only twice has a team put up more than 24 points against this defense. 

Georgia Tech has won three straight and comes into this game on a nice roll. But a closer look at the opposition shows all three opponents it beat have been disappointing this season. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami Florida have all failed to meet preseason expectations. We back the much better defense to easily cover this number.

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308 Green Bay at Seattle

Short and sweet on this one because it fits one of our strongest situational angles. If you’ve been following us all season, you know how much we like to back home teams when playing a non-divisional opponent. With the short week the home team has a sizable advantage against a team that loses a day of practice because of travel. The spot is even better if the road team has to travel two times zones to play. That trend is now 1-12-1 ATS against the road team, the Green Bay Packers. Seattle has had a great record in prime time affairs under Pete Carroll. Expect this crowd to really get the home team pumped up tonight.

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312 Tulane at Houston

The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close.

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305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois

Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois.

We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number.

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706 New Orleans at Toronto

The Pelicans stand at 1-5 straight up on the road this year. New Orleans has been swept by the Raptors each of the last three seasons, only winning twice in 14 meetings overall. 

Toronto rested the starting five for the entire fourth quarter against the Knicks last time out. Let’s back the best team in the east to keep this early start to the season red hot.

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258 Washington at Tampa Bay

This line has already moved three points and for good reason. At least three of the Redskins best offensive linemen are out for this game, with a possible fourth seeing very little action. This is a team that has played the easiest pass defenses in the league, and yet has still had problems moving the football. Now with a one-dimensional offense we don’t expect this Redskins offenses to have much success. 

Tampa Bay has one of the most productive offenses in the league. They will put up at least 27 points here when breaking down the side and total projections. We see no way this Redskins team can match them in scoring.

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720 Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento

Wrong team favored in our estimation. The Lakers are a poor 3 point shooting team that doesn’t play defense. We haven’t liked the personnel on this team from the get go. Too many personalities to work well with LeBron. The Kings are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing teams with a losing record. After years of futility Sacramento is building a pretty good basketball team. This club remains under the radar.

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