Cappers Sports Picks

281 Detroit at San Francisco

Short week for the Lions after being embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets picked up on signals from Matthew Stafford and knew what plays were being called. Now with time to correct that the Lions are priced as a bargain. 

San Francisco suffered many injuries last week at Minnesota. That is much more worrisome than what happened for the Lions. With two teams rated virtually equal coming in to the season, this line should be closer to the home field value of 2 1/2. 

PLAY DETROIT

263 Carolina at Atlanta

The Panther defense was superb in shutting down the Cowboys last week. Holding Dallas to a mere 33% successful offensive plays, and winning the sack battle 6-3. The Panthers have been a terrific road underdog with a 20-8 spread mark the past 6+ years.

Atlanta took a great deal of money before the season opener, but neither team had much offensive success, especially in the red zone which has been a constant problem for the Falcons. Atlanta produced just 35% successful plays offensively, and lost despite a turnover advantage. Under Dan Quinn the Falcons are 8-13 ATS as a home favorite, and this line is simply too high.

PLAY CAROLINA

273 Miami at NY Jets

Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.

The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland. 

PLAY MIAMI

265 Minnesota at Green Bay

We mentioned last week that we expected the Vikings to be the best team in the league this year, and it got off to a great start hosting the 49ers. The Vikings have won 4 of 5 as of late against the Packers, holding them to 0, 10, 14 and 13 points in those victories. This line is set as if a healthy Aaron Rodgers would line up behind center. But that’s not guaranteed, so this line has no where to go but up for the Vikings. 

Even if he plays the Packers didn’t show much Monday Night when the Bears weren’t trying to run out the clock. The Pack only has 39% successful offensive plays while allowing 45% to the Bears.

PLAY MINNESOTA

158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois

We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7.

Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled.

PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS

119 Kent State at Penn State

We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football.

Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close.

PLAY KENT STATE

129 Troy at Nebraska

Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class.

Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. 

PLAY TROY

915 Houston at Detroit

Cole & Norris

Run Line Play

Huge advantages across the board here for the Astros. Starting pitching is a 35% advantage, a 31% bullpen edge and an 18% hitting advantage. 

The Astros hit left-handed starters on the road 18% better than league average. Daniel Norris continues his trek to return from injury. It hasn’t been a productive return as the last two years have seen his ERA in the 5.40 range. Just too many good hitters in this Astros lineup.

PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2 RUNS

460 Buffalo at Baltimore

Let’s get this one out early as we see this number rising by game time. Baltimore has traditionally looked good in preseason as John Harbaugh is 26-13-1 ATS with the Ravens. Word is that Flacco has really been focused now with Baltimore taking Jackson in the first round. He was really good before his big contract, and seemed to rest on his laurels after getting the big money. The threat of losing his job has brought out the best in him. The Ravens brought in some talented receivers to open up the offense, something that has been a real sore spot on this team as of late. With a strong defensive team we look for the Ravens to be in contention all season.

The Bills have brought in a new offensive coordinator after a nine win season a year ago. But while this team really sold out to make the playoffs last season, the advanced numbers say this club didn’t deserve the winning record. Last year Buffalo faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and still struggled offensively. This team was fortunate with a +9 turnover margin. Now the Bills have a new quarterback. Taylor had been one of the best signal callers in the league when it comes to taking care of the football. Now the team will have someone behind center who has never been considered an NFL starter. The offensive line which was fifth in the league in positional spending a year ago, is now 29th this season. The win totals have steadily gone down on this team as money has poured in on the under. We expect this line to continue to go up by game day. Let’s get ahead of this one.

PLAY BALTIMORE

456 San Francisco at Minnesota

No team enters the season with more hype than the San Francisco 49ers. After winning just two games in 2017 this team jumped up to six wins a year ago. After starting the season poorly the brass traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is history. The offense ranked 30th in salary a year ago and now ranks 2nd, with most of that money going to Jimmy G. While it’s nice to know your team is willing to spend money, the Niners gave sizable raises to questionable players. The defense will remain a concern as our numbers show this team to be quite weak when not having the ball. The club had a sack margin of -13 last season and we don’t see how that has been addressed. The offense is solid but the defense will hold this team back.

Minnesota in our opinion is the most complete team in the NFC, including the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. In back to back years the Vikings lost its starting quarterback before the regular season and still won 21 total games. Kirk Cousins took a great deal of flack in Washington, but keep in mind his offensive lines there were terrible. Injuries kept Cousins from having the success he can have here in Minnesota. Throw in the fact that no NFL QB faced a tougher schedule of pass defenses the past two years, and you see how enamored we are able this signing. Even with an early major injury in camp this Vikings offensive line is much better than what he played with in Washington. We expect this line rise so let’s get this one up early.

PLAY MINNESOTA

362 Maryland at Bowling Green

The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. 

Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor.

PLAY BOWLING GREEN

341 North Carolina at East Carolina

Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. 

East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

346 Buffalo at Temple

This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. 

But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. 

PLAT TEMPLE

309 Western Michigan at Michigan

The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons.

Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school.

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

215 Navy at Hawaii

The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely.

Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low.

PLAY NAVY

144 Syracuse at Western Michigan

The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. 

Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. 

Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. 

PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN

966 Los Angeles at Houston

Heaney & Verlander

Major starter edge for Verlander as we rate him 31% higher than Heaney. The Angels starter has hit a wall as of late as his innings count is much higher than the two previous injury prone years. The Astros bullpen also dominates with the same 31% advantage. And the host has a 12% hitting edge. Instead of laying the high price on the money line we feel very confident the Astros win this one going away.

PLAY HOUSTON -1 1/2

139 Wake Forest at Tulane

The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. 

Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. 

Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

972 Kansas City at Minnesota

Smith & Berrios

Burch Smith is one of the worst starting pitchers in our database. He rates as 35% worse than an average Major League pitcher. The Kansas City bullpen traded away its two most reliable arms at the trade deadline. Yesterday the Royals bullpen threw 101 total pitches. That likely means the Smith will be taking one for the team today. He has a 6.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his career. 

Berrios has been lights out at home the past two years. This season he is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Last year he was 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He is coming off a poor start in which he went 4.2 innings allowing 3 earned runs and nine hits. 

Even though the line in this game is high, it’s still a bargain. But we are going to lay the 1 1/2 runs here as we really expect these Twin bats to pound Burch Smith. 

PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE

507 Golden State at Houston

Rare opportunity to get the clearly best team in the league without laying points. The Warriors were a short handed bunch last time out and the physical nature of the game seemed to wear on them down the stretch. Keep in mind the mental focus of this team after blowing away the Rockets in the previous game. Golden State was fat and happy and began to read its press clippings. While the Rockets played all out with its back to the wall. Now that Golden State is focused we see the Warriors coming out of Texas with the series lead.

PLAY GOLDEN STATE

705 Boston at Cleveland

So Cleveland is favored by 6 1/2 at home in game three after losing by double digits twice in Boston. Now the line is higher after the Cavs blow out the Celtics by 30 in the previous game? That’s not how sports betting works, especially this far into the playoffs where all four teams are among the leagues elite. Boston has the best coach remaining in the playoffs, which really says something with the Rockets and Warriors included, two elite coaches indeed. The Celtics have been terrific all season off a loss, off a double digit loss and off a blowout loss. History says the same thing when it comes to playoff basketball. Simply, the team that gets embarrassed comes out and covers the spread the next game. It happed last night in Oakland and it will do the same tonight in Cleveland.

PLAY BOSTON

504 Toronto at Cleveland

Give the Raptors all the credit in the world for that comeback last time out. But that last basket by LeBron has to have taken out all the will from this team. Keep in mind LeBron James is on a 27-1 SU run against the Raptors at home. That’s been against some very good Toronto teams the last few years. Now the Raptors need to win four straight including two wins in Cleveland. It’s just not going to happen and the visiting knows it. 

Cleveland on the other hand wants to finish as soon as possible in order to get a bit of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. James led the league in minutes this season, so you know the Cavs will do everything in its power to close this one out tonight.

PLAY CLEVELAND

511 Cleveland at Toronto

In game one Toronto was well rested and Cleveland was coming off a grueling seven game series with Indiana. The Raptors were favored by 7 in that contest and Cleveland won it in overtime. Now the line is virtually the same despite both teams having equal rest. Toronto has really struggled against the Cavs in the postseason and we unable to distance themselves in game one. Why would anyone think something different is going to happen here? The Cavs match up well with Toronto and when Thompson is in the game the inside edge the Raptors have is negated. 

PLAY CLEVELAND

709 New Orleans at Golden State

The rich get richer as Steph Curry returns to the Warriors lineup tonight. But does that make them a better team? Of course it does if he is in prime shape and gets his full allotment of minutes. But keep in mind it has been a long time since he has competed on the highest level, and the Warrior coaching staff will be looking to gradually increase his minutes. If would be devastating to this team to lose him again right before the likely occurrence of a Houston/Golden State showdown. Therefore we expect his minutes to be lessoned and his success being down from what we normally would witness.

The line in the previous game was roughly 2 1/2 points lower than we find here. The Warriors pounded the Pelicans rather easily. But we expect a major effort out of the dog tonight, and the Curry return gives us extra points to play with. In successful sports betting you buy low and sell high, that’s exactly the situation we take advantage of tonight.

PLAY NEW ORLEANS                                

706 Indiana at Cleveland

Originally from Cleveland we have watched virtually every Cavaliers game since LeBron was a rookie. We know his tendencies, his body language and when he’s coming to play or likely not to play well. This here is a LeBron game. Elite players off an embarrassing performance rebound well the next game. Teams losing by 30 or more points are 5-0 ATS the following game as a favorite. 

PLAY CLEVELAND

503 Golden State at San Antonio

What was once a very promising season for the Spurs has really turned into a complete waste of a year. The team and its best player are at a standstill, as Leonard continues to sit when the team needs him most. Now San Antonio sits at 0-3 in this series and has to beat the defending champs four straight in order to advance. Because of the yearly high expectations for the Spurs we can’t see San Antonio getting overly excited to have to travel back to Oakland after a victory here. Fading 0-3 teams has been very profitable, doing so against a veteran team with higher expectations is a given. 

PLAY GOLDEN STATE

517 Indiana at Cleveland

The Pacers have played the Cavaliers as well as anyone this year, and have a good chance to win this series outright. Being from Cleveland we watch every Cavaliers game and Cleveland has severe problems in this series. There was no doubt Indiana was the better team in the opener, and Cleveland still has a major weakness inside. The Pacers are the quicker team and the Cavs have struggled against youth all season. This line is built on reputation and not on the actual skills of the players.

PLAY INDIANA

924 Miami at NY Yankees

Smith & Severino

While Caleb Smith is ranked better than many think he has his hands full on the road today in New York. He’s 24% worse than Severino and the Miami bullpen is 26% worse. Offensively the Marlins are 22% worse and Miami can’t compare in power with the Yankees. We expect this to be a non-competitive game so we have no problems laying the 1 1/2 runs here with the host.

PLAY NY YANKEES RUN LINE

507 Miami at Atlanta

Hawks are in full tank mode while the Heat are looking to keep up in the playoff race. A majority of tickets have come in on the host, yet the line hasn’t moved. As we right this some of the sharper books are leaning toward a higher number. Let’s back the Heat here as the Hawks play dead once again.

PLAY MIAMI

812 Loyola Chicago & Michigan

Heard some quotes from other coaches who made the final four as surprise teams. They all said that the situation is totally different from anything these teams have seen in the past. Because of all the hoopla all the timing of a regular season game goes out the window. Not enough time for a normal shoot around, in and out of the locker room in less time than normal, stadium views as opposed to regular 20,000 seat or less dimensions. Loyola will be going through that for the first time today, while the other three teams have been through it before. 

On the court Michigan has the athletes to really give the Ramblers trouble. This will be the first time in the tournament in which Loyola will be at a defensive disadvantage.

PLAY MICHIGAN

517 LA Clippers at Portland

The road team has won outright all three meetings this season. The Clippers enter this game with double home loss revenge, but the defense is playing much better than the last time these two met two weeks ago. LA isn’t the most talented team in the league but you always seem to get a quality contest from this club.

Portland has been all the rage for those looking to play on the hot team. The Blazers have won 17 of 21 games entering tonight. But we went against this team last time out with Memphis and Portland was beaten outright. We look to go against the overrated Blazers again tonight.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

704 Chicago at Miami

The Bulls are in full tank zone after losing its sixth straight game, a 32 point defeat at Houston. Our clients took advantage of Chicago in that contest and we go right back to the well here. This is the first of a back to back for the Bulls, as it plays in Orlando tomorrow. A far easier team to beat than this Heat squad who is fighting for the playoffs. 

Miami is on a 10-6 straight up run including victories over Philadelphia twice, Washington and Cleveland. The Heat are well rested having not played a back to back game since March sixth. Miami is also off tomorrow before facing Brooklyn, Atlanta twice and New York. This is the time for the Heat to pad its resume.

PLAY MIAMI

510 Portland at Memphis

This one should be simple right? The Blazers enter this game having won 15 of 17, while the Grizzlies have lost 23 of 25. Unfortunately NBA handicapping is not that easy. This is the first of two meetings with Memphis in the next three games. The Blazers are playing back to back on the road after a 107-103 win in New Orleans yesterday. It’s also the third game in four days for Portland, all on the road. 

In the last 12 days the Grizzlies have been very competitive except the 140-79 embarrassment at Charlotte. Only two losses by double digits and two victories as well. Memphis has split the first two meetings in this series, and has had a very relaxing schedule of 8 of 9 games playing with rest. We expect this game to come down to the wire.

PLAY MEMPHIS

768 Chicago at Houston

Rockets had yesterday off after back to back blowouts of Atlanta and New Orleans. Houston plays again on Friday against Phoenix but has the next two days off. The Beard is out tonight which has driven the line down. But the numbers show that with Paul on the floor without him the team is only one point worse this season. Therefore the 3 1/2 point move is simply too much. Granted, against a good team it would make much more of a difference, but tonight the Rockets play the tanking Bulls.

Chicago has lost four straight games by double digits, but three of those teams aren’t going to the playoffs. Houston has the best record in the league. We expect the Rockets to run up the score going deep on the bench for late game production.

PLAY HOUSTON

721 Duke & Kansas

The Blue Devils have been the best team in the country since going to a zone defense midway through the season. Duke has now held 12 straight teams to under 75 points. Duke allows just 46.2% effective field goals on the season. This team always recruits deadly shooters, and now with the team buying into the defensive end this team is extremely tough to beat.

Kansas has won 11 of 12 heading into this contest, with the lone loss coming against Oklahoma State. But Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson has been one of the easiest roads in the tourney. We expect this line to climb, therefore lets lock in this number now on what we consider the clearly better team.

PLAY DUKE

719 Texas Tech & Villanova

Sharp books are trending toward the underdog here and we fully agree. Tech has one of the best effective field goal defenses in the country at 46.7%, and Villanova has been shooting unworldly in the tournament as of late. Since the Big 12 Tournament nobody has surpassed 69 points on this team. 

Villanova was able to shoot over the West Virginia press, but we can’t expect those type of numbers again here. This line is just too high.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

515 Florida State & Michigan

Smart money is on the Seminoles as the sharper books are lowering the number. We fully agree with that assessment. We only have these teams ranked 16 places apart in our power ratings, not nearly the difference to have a line this high. Florida State has played the better defense and faced a tougher schedule of Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga.

Michigan is coming off a blowout win over Texas A&M where the team just couldn’t miss from the field. That result has pushed this line up at least two points from where it deserves to be. Another reason for the inflated line is that the Wolverines are on a 12 game winning streak. Handicapping 101 tells you that you lose value on a streaking team as others blindly play on a hot squad. Right now 71% of the bets have come in on the favorite, yet the line is dropping. 

PLAY FLORIDA STATE

813 Kansas State & Kentucky

Many will overlook K State here based on facing Creighton and Maryland Baltimore County in the first two rounds. But this defense has been very good as of late with only Kansas and Oklahoma surpassing 67 points over the past five weeks. 

Kentucky enters this game having won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming at Florida. These Wildcats are peaking at tourney time which is a staple of this program. But wins over Davidson and Buffalo haven’t changed our minds on this squad. Kentucky has underperformed all year as opposed to prior editions, and we can’t see this team being a contender. With what is considered an easy slate to the final four we can see these young players buying into all the hype, taking these fellows Wildcats for granted.

PLAY KANSAS STATE

720 Florida State & Xavier

The Seminoles have staggered into the tournament having lost 6 of 11 games including the opening round win over Missouri. Three of those losses were to teams who didn’t make the Big Dance.

Xavier only lost five games on the season, all to teams making the Big Dance. That includes two losses to Villanova and Providence. Better team with a cheap line.

PLAY XAVIER

538 Buffalo and Kentucky

As much as we like the Bulls, and we had them in the opening round, the price is too cheap not to take the Wildcats here. The MAC has been terrible in the postseason whether it’s football or basketball. The teams just don’t match up to higher athletic teams. While Arizona struggled down the stretch of the season, the Wildcats are peaking at the right time.

PLAY KENTUCKY

881 Georgia State and Cincinnati

The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Bearcats with their excellent zone defense. Georgia State allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Cincinnati struggles offensively when facing a zone. 

The Bearcats just played three games in three days with every contest being decided by 10 points or less. In 3 of the last 4 contests Cincinnati scored 62 points or less. Tough to lay this type of number in what is expected to be a low scoring contest.

PLAY GEORGIA STATE

874 CS Fullerton and Purdue

The Titans major problem here is that it can’t defend from behind the arc, which is what Purdue does best offensively. This team posted a solid 20-11 record but only outscored the opposition by a single point a game.

Because of the Big 10 playing its tournament early at Madison Square Garden, Purdue will have 11 days off before this contest. Will the team be rusty or refreshed? We feel the extra rest will be a benefit after playing in the physical Big 10 conference. Purdue had a 15.5 scoring advantage on the season and had no problem running up scores in non-conference action. 

PLAY PURDUE

615 UL Lafayette at LSU

Rare opportunity for an in-state school to face the big boys in a tournament contest. With LSU having a disappointing season, we can see a good amount of this crowd cheering for the Rain Cajuns. Lafayette is 27-6 on the season and have a 4.2% effective field goal edge on the year. The Tigers lost to five teams who didn’t make the tournament. We can see this coming down to the final possession with he visitor cashing the ticket.

PLAY UL LAFAYETTE

543 LIU Brooklyn and Radford

The Blackbirds of Brooklyn enter the dance with just an 18-16 record. But it ended the season and the conference tourney by winning 12 of 17. Only one of the losses was by double digits, so even in defeat this team was competitive. 

The Radford Highlanders have the better 22-12 record but the team actually allows a higher effective field percentage than it generates itself, 49.5% to 49.4%. Brooklyn on the other hand has a 52.3% to 50% advantage. Radford doesn’t deserve to be this type of favorite tonight.

PLAY LIU BROOKLYN

538 Toledo and Buffalo

The Bulls are on a terrific run right now establishing themselves as the clear best team in this conference. Can’t see any way to go against this club right now, especially knowing Toledo’s best player will likely miss this contest. Even if Fletcher goes for the Rockets, he will be severely hampered. Something the run and gun Bulls can exploit.

PLAY BUFFALO

655 Boston at Minnesota

Now that the Celtics offense is coming around we have no problem backing this terrific defense in a likely win and cover situation. The Celts have been a money making machine with this young head coach in road games. Not only this year but in prior seasons. You always get a full effort from Boston on the road. 

While Minnesota is an up and coming team, we are not convinced this team can step up in class and beat a quality opponent. The number is well within our strike zone on the Celtics tonight.

PLAY BOSTON

579 Notre Dame and Virginia Tech

The Irish seemed to have sleepwalked through its game against the lowly Pitt Panthers yesterday. While it could be forgiven, this team just doesn’t have the justification to take anyone for granted. Because of lackluster play and injuries to key players, this team needs at least one more win to make the big dance. The Irish are the better team here and will look to avenge an earlier home loss to the Hokies. VT is already set for the tournament while Notre Dame needs this one.

PLAY NOTRE DAME

591 Air Force at UNLV

The Falcons have played much better ball as of late and this is always a tough team to beat this time of season. UNLV has been a major disappointment and despite playing at home we can’t see this team winning by a margin. Throw in the fact that this is an early start on a weekday, coupled with apathy from the home fans, and there will be little to no home court advantage.

AIR FORCE

537 South Dakota and South Dakota State

The Coyotes of South Dakota split the season series, winning 87-68 at home and losing 76-72 away. That road loss is the only game in the last nine games in which the Coyotes failed to win. That defeat came two weeks ago so the loss is fresh in the players minds. 

Our stats say this team is three points better on the road, and has the much better defensive efficiency numbers. With the line stating the winner covers we will back the Coyotes here.

PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA

710 Memphis at San Antonio

The Spurs are 4-13 SU against top 10 teams, They are 11-20 against top 16 opponents. But San Antonio has been at its best against the lesser teams in the league. Now 26-7 against the bottom half of the league. Coming into this contest having won just once over the past seven games, you know Pop will have his team prepared.

Memphis is in full tank mode right now having lost 13 straight. Pau Gasol is expected to miss tonights contest. 

PLAY SAN ANTONIO

837 Michigan and Purdue

Like last year the Wolverines are peaking at the right time of year. Winners of eight straight games and off an impressive win over instate rival Michigan State. Michigan has double revenge against the Boilermakers after losses by one and four points. 

Purdue has won five straight but it did so against the weaker teams in the conference. Penn State twice, Illinois, Minnesota and Rutgers. Before that Purdue had lost three straight. This team peaked early in the season while Michigan is peaking now. Wrong team favored.

PLAY MICHIGAN

806 Golden State at Atlanta

The Warriors are likely to go through the motions tonight against Atlanta and Tuesday at home against Brooklyn. After the All-Star break where the Warriors key players didn’t get any rest, the team went to Los Angeles, Oklahoma City, New York and Washington. Now it takes on two of the weakest teams in the league before facing San Antonio, Portland and Minnesota. 

Atlanta hasn’t been good this year to say the least, but Golden State has been a poor road favorite against this type of opponent. The Hawks are 4-12 SU against the top ten teams, so it has proven itself in the past when stepping up in class.

PLAY ATLANTA

713 New Orleans at San Antonio

The Pelicans enter this game having won six straight as Anthony Davis has played out of his mind as of late. What a difference a healthy Brow has made to this team. New Orleans beat San Antonio earlier in the season 107-90 at home. This is a confident bunch playing against a struggling Spurs squad.

Despite the upset win in Cleveland the last time out, the Spurs have dropped 6 of 8 as of late. The only other victory came against the tanking Suns. 

PLAY NEW ORLEANS

773 Fairleigh Dickinson at St Francis PA

The Knights have played much better as of late winning 7 of 11. Two of those losses came to this St Francis squad. The Knights own a better effective field goal defense in this matchup along with recent double revenge as both losses came in the last four weeks.

The Red Flash enter this game fat and happy winning five straight games entering this tournament. This is a major flat spot for St Francis having to win by double digits to cash. 

PLAY FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

524 Tennessee at Mississippi State

Must win game for the host who has been very good this season but needs a quality win to likely go dancing. The negative advantage of senior night isn’t a concern as this team simply has no seniors. This is a team that is 18-1 SU at home this season, and is favored over a ranked Tennessee team. 

Tennessee has lost 2 of 3 away with the only win coming at Mississippi, a team in total disarray right now. 

PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE

658 Portland at Pepperdine

This is the last game for coach Wilson at Pepperdine, as he will be forced out at the end of the season. The Waves have cashed three straight after the announcement, all against the leagues elite. Now dropping down in class we will lay the points against a Portland team that has dropped five straight games, including three straight at home coming into this contest. It’s payback time for the host after a nine point loss up in Portland.

PLAY PEPPERDINE

716 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

The Red Raiders just had a seven game winning streak broken at Baylor 59-57 in a tightly contested contest. Tech already beat Oklahoma State at home 75-70 and have Kansas on deck at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have revenge on its mind from a 85-73 home loss earlier this year. So this is a tough spot here for the visitor.

Oklahoma State has lost two straight and six of eight overall. It is coming off a 20 point loss at TCU, tied for its largest margin of defeat on the season. We back the home dog here.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

874 Canisius at Rider

The Golden Griffins are 13-2 in conference and have won six straight heading into this contest. But this is the third game in seven days and have Niagara home loss revenge on deck. 

Rider also sits at 13-2 in the league and enter this affair on a nine game winning streak. This is only the second game for the Broncs in eight days. The last time these two met Canisius survived 77-76 back in December. We like the situation here and the line is a bit short with the host. 

PLAY RIDER

540 Auburn at South Carolina

At 23-3 the Tigers are now in line to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. This team is 11-2 in conference and just beat a team in Kentucky that has owned them over the years. On deck we have a home game against Alabama, not only the biggest rival of this team, but the Tigers are in revenge from a 76-71 loss on the road.

South Carolina was fantastic last year but sits at 13-13 this season. The Gamecocks have lost six straight heading into this contest. Nobody wants anything to do with this team right now which is exactly why we find value on the host. 

PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA

504 LA Lakers at Minnesota

Really tough spot here for the Lakers who are playing the second game of a back to back right before the All-Star break. Throw in the fact that this team is also trying to get newcomer Isiah Thomas into the flow and it gets worse. Especially after Thomas and Rondo were thrown out of the game earlier in the week in the opening quarter. This is a young team that may be more interested in the break than this road contest in Minnesota.

The T-Wolves are a legit playoff team that has added veteran leadership this season. Minnesota will be less likely to take this game off with a bright second half future.

PLAY MINNESOTA

530 Ohio State at Penn State

Buckeyes cruising along in the Big 10 with a 13-1 record with the only home loss coming to these Nittany Lions. But before we jump on the visitor here keep in mind it plays hated rival Michigan on deck. 

Penn State is 8-6 in conference but has won 5 of 6 as of late with the only loss coming at Michigan State. The last time the Nittany Lions faced Ohio State was off back to back losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. Now this team is in much better form.

PLAY PENN STATE

715 LA Clippers at Boston

Just three weeks ago the Clippers lost at home to Boston 113-102. Since that time LA has won 6 of 8 games, including 4 of 5 on the road. 

Boston is struggling right now losing 3 of 4, including back to back losses at home. The Celtics don’t have a lot of offensive talent, and the Clippers are playing excellent defense as of late. This line is simply too high based on recent play along with the Clips revenge angle.

PLAY LA CLIPPERS

508 Cleveland at Oklahoma City

Don’t look now but all of a sudden all is right in Cleveland. Before the trade deadline Cleveland was +140 to win the Eastern Conference, now after exactly one game with the new players the Cavs are -110. All the talking heads are convinced Cleveland is now the clear team to beat in the East. Based on one game. 

We have to admit that surely was an impressive contest, but isn’t that a major stretch based on one game? Keep in mind Boston had lost two of three before that game, including an outright loss to Indiana at home. This is the third straight road game for the Cavs, and they are 5-18 ATS the last two years on the road vs the Western Conference. The last time Cleveland played Oklahoma City the Thunder scored 148 points. Look for Cleveland to struggle a bit tonight.

PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY

836 Duke at Georgia Tech

Off back to back road losses to St Johns and North Carolina, many will expect a bounce back game for the Blue Devils. But we don’t feel that way. Duke has dropped 3 of its last 4 games outright and haven’t impressed us on the road all year. This is a team that has dropped 4 of 8 true road games this season. 

Georgia Tech is having a poor season at 11-13 and just 4-7 in league play. It has dropped 6 of 7 heading into this contest. Other than a road game at Virginia, this is the only contest in which the Yellow Jackets can make a name for itself before the regular season ends. And you know it has a huge chip on its shoulder after losing to Duke last year by a whopping 53 points! You know this team has had this game circled, and the Blue Devils have proven themselves to be a beatable team on the road.

PLAY GEORGIA TECH

551 North Carolina at NC State

Coming off the statement win over Duke many will look for a letdown here vs the Wolfpack. But keep in mind that NC State just beat the Tar Heels 95-91 just two weeks ago in North Carolina. It’s one of two home losses on the season and the only chance this team has for home loss revenge. 

NC has dominated this series winning 16 of 20 outright and cashing 14 of those meetings. The line is short and the revenge is there. 

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

818 Portland at Sacramento

The Blazers are playing its 11th straight game in a different city tonight when it travels to Sacramento. It doesn’t help that Portland had to go to overtime last night to beat Charlotte. This is also the fifth game in eight days for the visitor. 

Sacramento on the other hand finishes off a four game home stand. The Kings haven’t left Sacramento for a game since January 30th. The Kings enter play having won four of its last seven games. This is a terrific spot for Sacramento to keep that streak alive.

PLAY SACRAMENTO

544 Old Dominion at Southern Miss

OD is a solid 8-2 in conference action and just knocked off a pretty good UAB squad. The Monarchs haven’t fared especially well against Southern Miss, splitting four games straight up and dropping three of those games ATS. 

The Golden Eagles are a full seven points better playing at home than on the road. In fact, Southern Miss is undefeated on this court this season. Off a confidence building win at Florida Atlantic we will take our chances on a solid home dog tonight.

PLAY SOUTHERN MISS

757 Texas A&M at Auburn

Now that the best defensive team in the league is finally healthy, we expect the Aggies to be a bet on team. A&M has taken the last two meetings in this series and matches up very well with the Tigers. Auburn is a fan favorite squad as its been a cash machine thus far, which gives us plenty of value in this current line. The sharp books are leaning with the dog here and we agree. 

PLAY TEXAS A&M

554 Nebraska at Minnesota

Huskers have been a major money makers this year posting a 17-6 spread mark. Nebraska has won three straight and enters tonight at 8-4 in Big 10 play. It beat Minnesota 78-68 at home in its earlier meeting. 

Minnesota is just 14-11 overall and 3-9 in conference. It enters this game having lost 8 of its last 9 games. Yet the line has moved from Minnesota -1 to -3.5, despite the fact that 68% of the bets and money have been on the underdog. Big money is on the host and we agree as fading early season money makers at this point of the season is the way to go.

PLAY MINNESOTA

720 West Virginia at Oklahoma

The Mountaineers have lost 5 of its last 7 games, with the only two victories coming at home. Our numbers say that this team plays a full 9 points better at home than away. West Virginia had success trapping and slowing down Trey Young in Morgantown, but we don’t expect the same type of success when playing on the road. 

Oklahoma plays 5 points better at home than on the road, and enter this contest having dropped 4 of 6 overall. But this is an unedited home court and the Sooners are looking for in-season revenge. 

PLAY OKLAHOMA

101 Philadelphia & New England in Minnesota

The Patriots haven’t had great success winning Super Bowl’s by margins. That looks to be something that holds true here. A lot of the reason for the Patriot’s success over the last two decades is playing in the worst division in football. If New England takes care of business against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins, it can very easily get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. When having to go on the road and win in the postseason the Pats are simply not the same team.

Philadelphia has the best unit on the field, its defense. And the offense can move the ball on a Pats defense that is rather weak considering the level of competition it played this season. 

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Here are five props we played in the offshore market at the same well known sports book. We could give you a ton of worthy plays in Las Vegas, but since most don’t live here it would be a waste of our time.

1st Score TD -158

Total FG Under 3.5 -135

Total FG Under 4.5 -325

No Safety -1058

Winning margin exactly 3 No -437

As I mentioned, you can get these and others at much better prices if you are in Vegas. If so, shop around. 

694 San Francisco at Santa Clara

Home revenge game for the Dons, but with a 12-12 mark including 4-7 in conference, how much extra effort will San Francisco bring? After all it has dropped 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. 

Despite an 8-15 record the Broncos have been better in conference with a 5-6 mark. Coming in off four straight double digit home losses you know this club will be fired up for this contest. The number is favorable and we will back the Broncos here.

PLAY SANTA CLARA

814 Utah at Phoenix

Sorry for the delay on this one. Wanted to send this out at what I thought would be the peak number. Utah just crushed the Warriors and Phoenix just let go of a well known player. Expectations are lower now on the Suns than at any other time this year. That’s when we step in and go against the Jazz in a letdown spot.

PLAY PHOENIX

566 Arizona State at Washington

The Sun Devils came out of the gate winning 12 straight games to become highly ranked. It was a major surprise for a team expected to be a low finishing team in the PAC 12. But since that time Arizona State has compiled a 4-5 mark, all in league action. 

Washington has put up a 15-6 seasonal mark mostly as an afterthought. But at 5-3 in the league the Huskies are in better shape right now than the visitor. At home the Huskies are 14-5 SU vs the Sun Devils, overall holding a 27-14 SU mark in this series. We will back the home dog here against a fading Arizona State squad.

PLAY WASHINGTON

760 Texas at Texas Tech

While the Longhorns have dominated this series having won 15 of the last 20 meetings. We will side with the home favorite here. 

By our records the Longhorns have been over 5 points better at home than on the road. In fact, Texas has lost three straight on the road to West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Off back to back wins, and hosting the talk of college basketball Trey Young next game, we can see this team lacking focus here.

Texas Tech is 17-4 overall with one of those losses coming to this Texas team 67-58. It’s the first revenge game of the season for the Red Raiders. As with Texas the Red Raiders are more than 5 points better at home. This will be a home dominated series and Texas Tech gets its revenge.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

745 Northern Iowa at Evansville

Northern Iowa has beaten Evansville four out of the last five meetings. The Panthers were just blown out at Loyola Chicago 70-47 for its worst loss of the season. 

Evansville at 14-9 just beat Drake and Valparaiso, but is still 4-6 in conference. Nice spot here for a Northern Iowa squad we feel should be favored.

PLAY NORTHERN IOWA

533 Ball State at Toledo

The Cardinal are 3-7 SU on the road this year and the Rockets enter play here having won seven straight games. Yet the early money has been on the road dog, and we agree. Despite the 15-6 overall mark and 7-1 record in the MAC, we view this Rockets team as overrated. Toledo just blew out Bowling Green by 26 last time out, so we can see this team fat and happy here. But keep in mind most of the success for the Rockets has been on the road. We will follow the line move and back the Cardinals.

PLAY BALL STATE

713 Northwestern at Michigan

The Wolverines have struggled somewhat as of late, dropping 3 of 6 entering this contest. It just played a barnburner at Purdue on Thursday, the second game against the Boilermakers this season. Michigan has beaten up on the weak teams in the conference, but we really like this Northwestern squad. The record is only 13-9 but the Wildcats faced the likes of Creighton, Texas Tech and Oklahoma out of conference. These two teams are closer in our ratings than this line suggests.

PLAY NORTHWESTERN

837 Northern Iowa at Loyola Chicago

At 11-10 and 3-6 in conference this has been a down season for the Panthers. But the team has won 3 of 4 entering this contest.

The Ramblers are in a bad scheduling spot here. It plays lowly Northern Iowa and has big games on deck against Bradley and Missouri State, two 15 win teams. Currently on a six game winning streak, and having already beat Northern Iowa on the road, this is the spot to go against the better team.

PLAY NORTHERN IOWA

625 Oakland at Wright State

The Grizzlies are starting to make a run in the Horizon League. Now 6-3 in conference after winning its fifth straight game on Friday. That was good news for our clients and we expect a repeat here. Oakland has two home losses on the season, Northern Kentucky and Wright State. The Grizzlies revenged the Norse and now the Raiders are in their sights.

Wright State sits at 8-1 in conference and is coming in off a 32 point blowout of Detroit. This line tells us the betting markets say Oakland is the better team, we agree.

PLAY OAKLAND

637 Wake Forest at Louisville

A down season for the Demon Deacons has gotten worse as of late as it enters play tonight on a six game losing streak. But keep in mind it just played Duke twice, Virginia, NC State and Virginia Tech the last five games. Wake has been more competitive on the road this season.

Louisville is 15-5 and just lost at Miami Florida. Most will assume a big bounce back from the Cardinals here, especially playing on a one loss home court. But Louisville has a date with Virginia on deck, and this team needs a signature win. Nice spot for the dog to take this one deep.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

641 Georgetown at Creighton

The Hoyas played one of the easiest schedules in the country before league play started, and came into Big East play totally overrated. As expected Georgetown is now 3-6 in league play, having just dropped 2 of 3 at home. Now back on the road this team finally shows some betting value.

Creighton is 16-5 on the season and undefeated on this home court. It already beat the Hoyas by 24 in Georgetown. Up on deck? The #1 Villanova Wildcats. Massive lookahead spot here for the host. 

PLAY GEORGETOWN

647 Cal Poly at UC Davis

This handicap is quite simple. The Mustangs of Cal Poly have dropped 10 of 12 and sit 1-5 in the Big West Conference. They are an afterthought in the betting markets as well as for opponents. Off back to back double digit losses nobody will want any part of this team, which is where we step in.

UC Davis is 13-7 on the season and 4-2 in league play. It’s right in the midst of playing Cal Poly here and a home and home against Cal Northridge, who they just beat 63-56 at home on Thursday. This is an undefeated home team that is all fat and happy heading into tonight. 

PLAY CAL POLY

547 Texas State at Georgia State

Big battle in the Sun Belt Conference Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats at 7-2 in conference have played better ball away from home this season, an impressive 6-6 straight up mark. Only one of the losses was by more than todays spread. 

Georgia State is the hotter team having won six straight heading into this contest. But our numbers show the line to be inflated. We will take the points with the talented dog.

PLAY TEXAS STATE

539 Elon at Towson

The Phoenix were once 3-1 in conference but have dropped three straight games.  Now it heads on the road to play Towson, a team it beat at home 75-72. 

Towson enters play at 15-7 overall but loaded up on weaklings in non-conference play. The Tigers are just 5-4 in the CAA and are off an impressive win over William & Mary. Early start home games don’t have the sam home court edge as games played at night. Plenty of margin here for the road dog.

PLAY ELON

831 Oakland at Northern Kentucky

The Grizzlies have had a great deal of success in the Horizon League over the years, and enter play at 5-3 in conference. It is looking to avenge an 87-83 home loss earlier this season. Oakland has only lost two home games all year, and enter here after winning four straight contests overall.

The Norse have a 7-1 mark in conference with the only loss coming to Wright State. Northern returns home off back to back road wins against the two Milwaukee schools. 

With Oakland being two games behind in the conference standings and having already lost to the Norse, this becomes a must win game for the Grizzlies. We like this team and expect this contest to go to the wire.

PLAY OAKLAND

603 Indiana at Cleveland

Why go away from something that has been so successful? The Cavaliers stink right now and the betting public has been slow to react. This line is simply too high right now for a team playing without any heart. The only consistent player over the last month is Wade, and he’s not with the team today because of a personal problem. 

Indiana has won all three meetings this season and have a 7-3 record as of late against the entire league. The Pacers are 19-5 this season when hitting at least 10 3 pointers a game. Against the Cavs they have made 16, 15 and 10 in the previous meetings. Cleveland has been terrible defending the perimeter all season.

PLAY INDIANA

559 Cal Northridge at UC Davis

Northridge lost 11 straight to start the season after winning against Life Pacific in its opener. Since that time the Matadors are 4-3 including winning its last two contests. In fact, all four of those wins were by 9 points or more.

The Aggies return to the mainland after a 77-72 loss at Hawaii. After winning the last four meetings in this series the line is a bit inflated. We will back the improving Matadors to stay under this generous number.

PLAY CAL NORTHRIDGE

775 Mercer at East Tennessee State

Despite a 10-10 record Mercer has been a money during 4-9 ATS on the season. But the Bears have won 3 of 4 heading into this contest with the only loss coming by 4 to 14-5 NC Greensboro. On the season Mercer has a 3.9 average scoring margin per game. 

East Tennessee State comes into this contest on fire, winning 14 of 15, but has 14-5 Wofford on deck. Despite the records these two teams are closer in talent than this line suggests.

PLAY MERCER

519 Vanderbilt at Tennessee

It has been a bad season for the Commodores entering here with a 7-12 mark on the year. It’s looked especially ugly on the road which is why this line is where it is. But this team has played well in this series winning straight up the last two times in this building. In fact, this has been a road dominated series the past three seasons.

Tennessee just beat Vandy on the road by 9 just two weeks ago. No special reason for this team to get up here. It just beat South Carolina by 7, and has a road game at Iowa State on deck. We will take the generous points with a road dog everyone else has written off.

PLAY VANDERBILT

511 Providence at Villanova

Friars playing much better ball as of late, winning four straight heading into this contest. The last two victories coming by double digits. Providence has cashed 4 of the last 5 in this series, including both meetings here the last two years.

The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS on the season but just 3-3 ATS playing at home. Coming off back to back 20+ victories we can’t see the better team being up for this contest. 

PLAY PROVIDENCE

702 Sacramento at Charlotte

Since the Kings management made the decision to start the youngsters the team hasn’t won a game. Now rookie Giles is out for the season to shorten an already lineup with a lack of talent. The closest Kings loss as of late by by 6 points at home against the Clippers. A more reasonable chance for victory comes tomorrow at Orlando.

The Hornets let a game slip away on Saturday as it blew a late lead against the Heat. This is the third of a five game homestead for Charlotte. We look for the host to make a statement here after watching victory slip through its hands late.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

313 Minnesota at Philadelphia

Better get this one up now before any more money comes in on the host. Simply put we want no part of a dome team playing on the road outside in the playoffs. It’s been a terrible situation historically and we saw it again last week with Atlanta. Home field means so much in this matchup, and to catch the host as an underdog is a no brainer. Foles has a history of being a productive quarterback over the years and his short sample size this season has given us strong line value.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

628 Tennessee at South Carolina

Line here is a bit high in our opinion based on the lack of success by the Volunteers on the road. Just 3-2 SU away from home as this team has feasted on home cooking all season. Just once in five road games did Tennessee win by more than seven points. 

South Carolina had a huge comeback win against Kentucky last time out. That should be a positive momentum situation for a program that went deep into the tourney a year ago. Just one home loss for the Gamecocks on the season gives us even more confidence.

PLAY SOUITH CAROLINA

815 St Bonaventure at Davidson

Very important game for the Bonnies who have lost all three road games in conference and enter here 2-3 overall. St Bonaventure is an excellent 3 point defending team which is what Davidson does best. This series is tied 4-4 and we actually rate St Bonaventure as the slightly better team. After facing Dayton, St Josephs and Rhode Island on the road the Bonnies have been tested. It’s also a veteran team that should bounce back here before a home revenge game against St Josephs.

The Wildcats are a solid 4-1 in conference play, but none of its opponents currently have a winning mark on the season. Coming off blowout wins by margins of 30, 27 and 27 points, the Wildcats step up in class tonight.

PLAY ST BONAVENTURE

563 Pepperdine at Pacific

The Waves have been bad this season with an 0-6 conference record and just 3-15 overall. It’s riding a nine game losing streak entering this contest, having lost by double digits in four straight. But as Lee Corso would say “Not so Fast”. 

Over the last five games the Wave have played teams with a combined 71-23 record. Tonights opponent is just 9-10 on the year. 

The Tigers are off three straight victories and face three heavyweights after this contest. St Mary, San Francisco and BYU. Terrible spot for the host while the visitor drops down in class.

PLAY PEPPERDINE

709 Miami at Milwaukee

Quick revenge for the Bucks here after losing to Miami 97-79 on the road just three days ago. But in looking over the Milwaukee schedule we see 11 of the last 12 games being played against current playoff squads, with another on deck. Having to get up every single game to play the best teams in the league is a chore. 

Miami is now 12-5 SU off a SU loss this season. They lost at Chicago Monday after winning seven straight games. Coincidently we had Miami in that contest, our only loss in any sport this week. But we have the Heat being the slightly better team here and we prefer the Miami coaching staff which has done a terrific job the last full year here in Miami. The Heat are on a 6-2 SU run on the road and we really like the way this team is playing.

PLAY MIAMI

536 Drake at Northern Iowa

Many will look at this game and see the 5-1 in conference Bulldogs catching points at the 1-5 Panthers as a lock. But there is much more than wins and losses in handicapping sports. Drake is just 11-8 on the season, while Northern Iowa is 9-9. But the Panthers faced the likes of North Carolina, NC State, Villanova, UNLV, Texas Arlington, Iowa State and Xavier. 

The coaching staff made a surprising move last time out putting a talented freshman in the starting lineup at center, and dropping its leading scorer to the bench. For a coach to do such a thing tells us that its the right move to spark this squad. Northern Iowa in turn beat Valparaiso 81-76, breaking a seven game losing streak. Now with its back against the wall we expect these Panthers to be on the prowl. Our numbers show the Panthers to be 48 places better than the Bulldogs, and because of the way these two started the conference season the line is cheap.

PLAY NORTHERN IOWA

711 Miami at Chicago

The Heat have been excellent in the second of back to back games and enter this affair on a seven game winning streak. Miami has already beaten the Bulls twice this year by 6 and 7 points. Chicago has dropped 5 of 8 after that surprising winning streak in December. We will back the veteran Heat here.

PLAY MIAMI

305 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

The last time these two met the Jaguars dominated as Big Ben had a career worst game. So what has changed since that meeting? Not enough to make us want to back the Steelers here. In fact, because of the Brown injury Jacksonville should be better able to take advantage of the Steelers here. 

Jacksonville has a terrific pass defense and yet the Steelers brain trust tried to pass all over it in the first meeting. The correct game plan for Pittsburgh would be to run the ball as much as possible. But are they perceptive enough to stick with it through the entire game? We don’t believe so, as this team is too accustomed to having its way through the air. And that plays right into the hands of the touchdown underdog. 

PLAY JACKSONVILLE