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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5||114-110||Loss||-110||21 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two.
Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.
Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.
These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.
The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade.
Look for a hard fought game here.
Take the under.
|05-30-19||Warriors -1 v. Raptors||109-118||Loss||-108||114 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Finals Game One CASH* The Golden State Warriors benefit from having plenty of time to rest up and prepare for this series. Golden State sweeping Portland gave them a lot of extra time to heal up minor injuries to Curry and Thompson.
Steve Kerr's teams have been dominant in Game One since he took over. Kerr is 18-1 in Game One in the playoffs. The Warriors will likely be without Kevin Durant, but I believe this team is still easily the most talented team in the NBA without Durant.
Golden State's defense picked it up without Durant, and Curry and Thompson have been much more aggressive on offense. The Warriors have been here many times before, while Toronto is here for the first time.
Toronto is a very good team, but I think the Warriors are on a different level. Golden State played relatively poorly in the Portland series and still swept the Blazers.
The Raptors put everything into the Eastern Conference Finals. They celebrated in a big way after that win. While there is some time between games for them, I do worry some that it still is far from an ideal spot for the Raptors.
Golden State is the better team here, and this is a short price.
Take Golden State.
|05-25-19||Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213.5||94-100||Win||100||43 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.
Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.
The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down.
This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.
I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points.
This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.
Take the under.
|05-21-19||Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors||102-120||Loss||-109||17 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Milwaukee Bucks lost in double overtime in Toronto in game three. Kawhi Leonard had 36 points and carried Toronto to a win in a must win game.
I think it will be hard for Toronto to do it again in Game 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 5/16 from the floor and 2/7 from the free throw line in Game 3, and the Bucks still nearly won that game. Khris Middleton, another great scoring option for the Bucks, was 3/16 in that game as well.
Milwaukee ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season. The Bucks work very hard on the defensive end. They are the best shot blocking team in the league. Toronto has a lot of guys who are unreliable from long range.
Milwaukee is a really deep team as well, meaning it could be just about anyone who steps up as a great third or fourth option.
The Bucks are a whopping 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. I like the Bucks to bounce back here.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||100-108||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Bucks ATS* The Toronto Raptors are coming off a very hard fought seven game series against the Philadelphia 76ers. They were fortunate to get out of that one with a win. They must turn around pretty quickly and refocus on the Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee blew right through Detroit and Boston, and the Bucks are most rested team left in the NBA playoffs.
Backing rested home teams in game one of a playoff series has been a good way to look long term and this makes a lot of sense to me. The home team in round one is the team with home court advantage in the series and the stronger team most of the time. They have had longer to prepare for the series.
The Bucks and Raptors each have a superstar, but the Bucks are the much deeper team. Milwaukee doesn't have any clear cut weaknesses, while Toronto's 3 point shooting is inconsistent. The Bucks should have the advantage from the line as well. Milwaukee excels at defending without fouling and is better at getting to the line than Toronto.
The Bucks are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games against the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage.
Milwaukee isn't likely to overlook this game after stumbling in game one against Boston.
Take the Bucks.
|05-12-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5||100-96||Win||100||49 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams.
In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here.
The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121.
These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season.
If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total.
There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game.
There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22.
Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7.
There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose.
Take the under.
|05-09-19||Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215||108-119||Loss||-110||44 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six.
Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy.
The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average.
The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games.
I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game.
Take the under.
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics -2||123-116||Loss||-106||17 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Bucks were covering machines in the regular season this year. Milwaukee covered 61% of their games on the season. Boston covered only 50% of their games on the whole.
I ran a query to test my theory that high ATS cover teams haven't been very successful ATS in the playoffs, especially against teams with a lower ATS cover rate. It turns out that theory was true.
Teams with a cover rate of 52% ATS or higher against a team with a cover rate of 51% or lower in the NBA playoffs are 89-111 ATS in the last 200 games. On the road, they are 41-62 ATS in the last 103 contests.
The Celtics didn't play up to expectations during the year, but they have loads of talent. The Bucks played great this year, but they are without one of their best players in Malcolm Brogdon.
Brad Stevens is an elite coach. Stevens has been a big money maker in the playoffs for bettors, and this is a specific spot where he has excelled. The Celtics are 16-1 ATS under Stevens when favored against a team with a straight up win percentage of 51% or higher in the playoffs. That number is 13-0 ATS in the first or second round of the playoffs.
|04-30-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||109-115||Loss||-100||20 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Rockets/Warriors MONEY* The Houston Rockets lost a close one in Golden State in game one. There has been all kinds of talk about the officiating in the first game. The Rockets didn't get the benefit of the whistles in that one, and they weren't a bit happy with how things unfolded.
Based on their anger and the fact that it has been such a big story the last couple days, I would tend to think that they get a more favorable whistle in this game. Additionally, Houston should be highly motivated to put forth its best effort in this one.
Golden State isn't 100 percent right now. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both dealing with injuries. Curry clearly hasn't been himself of late.
James Harden didn't shoot the ball well in game one, and the Rockets still covered the spread and had a chance to win outright.
Golden State is a great team, but I do think the Rockets are their toughest matchup in the NBA. Look for this game to go down to the wire.
Grab the points.
|04-27-19||Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 211||86-90||Win||100||46 h 28 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play.
First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point.
Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here.
-The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season.
-The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season.
-The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%.
-The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season.
-The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6.
Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total.
With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value.
Take the under.
|04-26-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233.5||129-110||Loss||-110||32 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here.
There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest.
How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession.
The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest.
If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points.
These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs.
Take the under.
|04-25-19||Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208.5||103-120||Loss||-102||17 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one.
These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here.
The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points.
As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well.
Here's a system to consider:
First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209
-Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower
-Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5
-The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower
In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system.
Take the under.
|04-24-19||Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232.5||129-121||Loss||-103||8 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series.
Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games.
Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186.
The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions.
If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.
Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.
Take the under.
|04-21-19||Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207||107-85||Win||100||17 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit.
These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other.
Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense.
Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities.
The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well.
The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end.
There's a big system that this game fits.
-A 1st round NBA playoff game
-The total of 191 to 209
-Home team win percentage of 60% or lower
-Road team win percentage of 50% to 73%
-Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog
In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%).
Take the under.
|04-19-19||Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 204||104-96||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen.
Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense.
The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here.
Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much.
The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
Take the under.
|04-19-19||Raptors v. Magic UNDER 210||98-93||Win||100||17 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Orlando Magic were beaten badly in game two. I like to play unders in game 3 when the home team was beaten soundly in game two.
This is a chance for the home team to attempt to rally the troops and put forth a better effort, and more times than not it comes from improved play on the defensive end. Orlando wants to slow this game down, and I expect them to work to slow the tempo a lot on their home floor.
These teams have met six times this year. Four of the six games have stayed under this total. The average final total has been 204.33 points. This is a playoff game that means much more than the regular season meetings did, and playoff games have historically been quite a bit lower scoring.
Orlando ranks last in the league at getting to the free throw line. Toronto ranks 21st. Unless there is a ref show, you wouldn't expect a bunch of free throws when these two teams meet.
Here's a totals playoff system I have followed in recent seasons with success.
-Total of 195.5 or higher
-Home team is between -2.5 and +5.5 in the game
-The home team is coming off a loss of 6 points or more
-The home team has won 63% or less of their games in the regular season
-The under is getting 45% or less of the bets
The under is a whopping 37-8 (82.2% wins) in the last 45 contests that fit this criteria. This game fits the system.
Take the under.
|04-18-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237||132-105||Push||0||21 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers made a massive comeback to win over Golden State in stunning fashion in Game 2 at Oracle Arena.
Golden State is clearly the best team in the NBA, and the Warriors aren't likely to shut it down in the 3rd quarter as they did last game. Steve Kerr made it clear he wasn't happy with the Warriors defense in the second half of Game 2.
While Golden State is obviously a great offensive team, most don't realize how good this Warriors defense can be when they are highly motivated. The under is 24-8-1 in the Warriors last 33 games following a loss. I don't think that's an accident. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 125 points or more in their last game.
There were a whopping 65 made free throws in Game 2. An average made free throws number for these two teams would be in the upper 30's. Last game was an outlier. Could there be a bunch of made FT's here again? Yes, but we shouldn't expect that number to be repeated.
Both teams shot the ball very well from the floor last game. This game has a little extra on the line now with the series at 1-1.
The line has been adjusted upward by the oddsmakers. This is an extremely high playoff total. An average of 59 points per quarter puts this one just under the total.
Take the under.
|04-16-19||Magic v. Raptors UNDER 212||82-111||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are down 1-0 after Orlando stunned them in game one. In game one, Orlando was able to slow the pace down quite a bit. The game played to 98.5 possessions. The shooting was a bit below average, but it wasn't terrible. Orlando averaged 1.051 points per possession and Toronto averaged 1.031 points per possession.
Late in the regular season, Orlando was very good defensively. Toronto was also strong defensively to finish out the year. Orlando ranked 7th in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games. Toronto ranked 4th in defensive efficiency.
Orlando ranked 25th in pace of play and Toronto ranked 15th. Neither team pushes the pace to any kind of extreme level.
Two of the three best under referees in the NBA are on this game in Marc Davis and John Goble.
Neither of these teams have been particularly strong at offensive rebounding, and that helps with avoiding second chance points.
There hasn't been an adjustment down in this total like there was in most of the other contests.
Take the under.
|04-14-19||Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213||90-122||Loss||-110||19 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* There has been a lot of money come in on the under in this game. The total opened at 219 and has been bet down six points. I think this move has been overdone.
Utah is a much better offensive team than they were a year ago. Utah got significantly better on offense late in the season this year. The Jazz were third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the season. Who was first? The Houston Rockets.
Houston's coaching staff has been quoted as saying they have to get the tempo going even quicker than normal here to prevent Utah's big men from setting up on the defensive end. Look for the Rockets to move the ball around quickly and try to get up some shots early in the shot clock here.
Utah can sometimes shoot a poor percentage from the floor and still score quite a few points. The Jazz have been pretty good on the offensive boards, and Houston ranks second worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage.
Houston has scored 111 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. Utah has scored 109 points or more in 16 straight games. The big move on the under has created some value on the over in this one.
Take the over.
|04-13-19||Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 211.5||101-96||Win||100||20 h 48 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle Crusher* The Spurs and Nuggets have met four times this year. All four games went under the total. The stakes are clearly higher now with this being a playoff contest. The tempo generally slows down in the playoffs and the defenses work a little harder.
Both San Antonio and Denver slowed their pace down late in the regular season, and I don't see any reason to expect them to speed things up now that the games mean even more. Denver ranked second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last 15 games of the year. The Spurs were fourth slowest.
Denver hasn't been all that efficient on offense overall this year. It has been their second chance points that can really do damage. The Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs are 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, so I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities for them.
The under is 9-0 in the Spurs last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on two days of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in Denver's last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 31-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-05-19||Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216||110-119||Loss||-106||23 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic right now due to injury. The Blazers have still been good, but their upside is certainly limited without those guys.
Portland has slowed their pace down a bit without two of their best players. Portland ranked 16th in the NBA in tempo up until the McCollum injury. In their last ten games, they rank 24th in the NBA in tempo.
Denver ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Nuggets have slowed the pace down drastically in recent weeks.
Denver has been better defensively of late as well. Denver ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Portland has been solid defensively also of late. Portland ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.
I like to look for unders late in the season in the NBA in games that mean a lot to both teams. Denver sits in second in the Western Conference standings. Portland sits 4th in the standings and they are only two games behind Denver.
The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are off a win of 10 points or more. A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-03-19||Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5||85-113||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets offense has been a mess of late. In their last 8 games, Denver ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. It's hard to imagine, but yes they are actually behind the Bulls and the Knicks during their last eight games.
Denver's defense has been solid during this time. The Nuggets rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games.
San Antonio is playing at the 28th fastest pace out of 30 teams in the league in their last eight games. Denver ranks 29th in tempo during that time. Both of these teams have been slowing the game down.
Late in the season, unders between good teams have been very good in recent seasons. The angle is stronger when they are teams from the same conference. This one definitely fits.
The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|04-02-19||Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222||102-116||Win||100||21 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are back to playing better defense of late. For the season, Golden State ranks only 14th in defensive efficiency. Golden State hasn't played like a team that is terribly motivated during much of the regular season. The Warriors rank sixth in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games.
Denver ranks as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Nuggets have decided to try to slow things down quite a bit. Golden State is no longer one of the fastest teams in the league. In fact, Golden State ranks 21st in the NBA in pace in their last ten games.
Denver ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. The Nuggets rank 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 10 games.
Both teams should be motivated here as the two teams fight for playoff seeding in the Western Conference.
Late in the season, taking two good teams playing against each other to go under the total has been a very strong angle in the past few seasons.
Take the under.
|03-29-19||Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 221||115-105||Win||100||17 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Western Conference playoff standings are really tight. The team in first place is only 8 games ahead of the team in eighth place. Just 1.5 games separate 5th from 8th place. Denver is in second place right now in the standings, but they could still fall to 3rd or 4th or even regain the top spot. Oklahoma City sits in 7th, but they are just one game out of 5th.
This game means a lot to both teams. The more these games mean late in the season, the more I lean toward the under to begin with. There are more reasons to like the under in this one too.
Denver has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this number. The Nuggets have slowed their pace drastically. The Nuggets are playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games.
Oklahoma City has a history of playing top opponents to lower scoring games. The under is 37-16-1 in the Thunder's last 54 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.
Paul George is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. He'll likely try to play, but he is less than 100 percent.
The under is 13-3 in the Nuggets last 16 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|03-27-19||Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5||99-107||Win||100||29 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* It has been a strong angle in the past decade to take the under in a game between two good teams late in the year. Both of these have plenty to play for. Oklahoma City's recent slump has dropped them to 8th in the playoff standings, but they are just one game behind fifth place.
Indiana sits in the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They certainly want to fight hard to stay there so they have home court advantage in the first round.
I like to look at recent performance this time of the year. In their last 8 games, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks 27th during this time. What about on defense? Indiana ranks 4th best in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 6th best in the NBA during this period when it comes to defensive efficiency.
Both of these teams can go through offensive droughts, but both play tough defense. This game projects as a defensive battle.
The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two.
Take the under.
|03-24-19||Spurs v. Celtics UNDER 220||115-96||Win||100||15 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. San Antonio ranks 23rd in tempo in that period as well, so they are slowing things down.
Brad Stevens was very upset with Boston's defensive effort in their last game, and you have to think they work harder on that end in this game. The Celtics have key players banged up that could slow the offense too. Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will either play at less than 100% or miss this game.
Sunday has been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run, and it isn't even close. This is a high total with two teams who have plenty to play for here.
Take the under.
|03-24-19||Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 211.5||88-124||Loss||-109||13 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers rank second worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. Indiana also ranks 23rd in tempo.
The Nuggets rank 28th in tempo, and Denver's defense is clearly better than it was a year ago. The under is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 road games.
A game between two good teams at this time of the season is a good under system in the past 15 years. This game means plenty to both teams.
Sunday has been the single best day to bet unders in the NBA by a wide margin. This is a Sunday afternoon contest.
The under is 7-0 in the Nuggets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. A 25-0 angle.
Take the under.
|03-20-19||Wizards -2 v. Bulls||120-126||Loss||-113||17 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls are expected to be without Otto Porter Jr. for this one. Porter Jr. has been a very good player for the Bulls since being traded over. They lose a key scoring option and a solid defender without him.
Zach LaVine has been the Bulls best player of late, and Porter is likely the second most important player to this team right now.
Washington isn't a good team, but they are healthier than Chicago, and they still seem to be trying to win. The Wizards just won in Chicago recently, and I think they can do it again here.
Chicago is in a difficult spot coming off a road trip on the West Coast.
Washington isn't likely to make the playoffs, but they are at least still alive in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards have bounced back from losses well of late. Washington is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up loss. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Chicago is 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
|03-18-19||Pacers v. Blazers UNDER 213.5||98-106||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum here. McCollum has a knee injury. Without McCollum, the Blazers lose a major offensive weapon. Portland doesn't have the great second scoring option in the backcourt now. On other hand, McCollum's defensive stats have never been very good, and they might be a bit better on defense with him on the bench.
Indiana is without their best scorer in Oladipo as well. The Pacers have scored 108 points or less in six straight games. They have scored 105 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers slow the game down, and they'll try to avoid a high scoring contest here.
Portland's tempo is slightly below league average, and without McCollum it should be tough for them to be as efficient on offense.
This is a game between two good teams late in the year. That's a solid under angle in the NBA in the past decade.
The under is 23-8 in the Pacers last 31 games vs a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage.
Take the under.
|03-14-19||Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222||106-108||Win||100||18 h 47 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet on Thursday night.
Oklahoma City played last night and picked up a win against Brooklyn. Their defense was very good in that game, but the offense wasn't very good outside of Russell Westbrook who had a great game.
The Oklahoma City offense has struggled in the past ten games. The Thunder rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten. They have still been solid on defense though up in 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time.
Indiana ranks 26th in tempo, and they aren't going to want to get out and run with Oklahoma City here.
Two good teams squaring off late in the season is a solid under angle in the long run, and I see several reasons to like this one to stay under this fairly high number.
The under is 42-19 in OKC's last 61 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 21-8 in the Pacers last 29 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 35-16 in Indiana's last 51 home games.
Take the under.
|03-12-19||Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 233||125-104||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The LA Clippers host the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. The Clippers are coming off an offensive outburst last night over the Boston Celtics. Portland has had several days off to prepare for this game.
In their last ten games, the Clippers rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Blazers rank 14th in that time in defensive efficiency.
Portland likely tries to slow the game down a bit here. The Blazers rank only 19th in the NBA in pace in their last ten games.
There is a strong totals system regarding conference games in play here:
-A total of 227 or higher
-Game 5 of the season or later
-Public bet percentage on the under of 48% or less
-Total has either stayed flat from the open or gone up.
The under is a whopping 82-36 (69.5%) since 2005 in this system. This game fits the system.
Take the under.
|03-10-19||Bulls v. Pistons UNDER 217||108-131||Loss||-109||12 h 52 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons play a very rare noon eastern start time contest on Sunday. These games have leaned pretty strongly to the under in the past to begin with, and in this one I like the angle even more with the clocks moving forward. This is essentially an 11 am start time on the body clock.
Detroit has easily played at the slowest pace in the NBA in their last ten games. The Bulls rank in the bottom ten in the league in tempo as well. I don't think they'll be pushing the pace in this early game. These two just played each other as well, and that should help the under.
I would expect a bit of a sloppy game here with some scoring droughts. The last game between these two stayed under the total despite some good shooting numbers.
Take the under here.
|03-06-19||Jazz -4 v. Pelicans||114-104||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Utah Jazz get a chance at some quick revenge here. Utah blew a big lead at home in the fourth quarter and let New Orleans beat them on Monday night. Rarely do teams get a chance at revenge on the road just two days later, but here the Jazz get that opportunity.
Utah is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss. Utah is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 following a straight up loss. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in New Orleans.
While the Pelicans have played pretty well of late, the Jazz have a lot more reasons to be motivated right now than do the Pelicans.
The Utah Jazz team is balanced, and they should be supremely motivated considering the situation. I think this is a reasonable price to lay on the road team.
|03-03-19||Blazers v. Hornets UNDER 228||118-108||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Charlotte Hornets host the Portland Blazers. The Blazers are in the middle of a long road trip, and they are coming off a hard fought loss to the Toronto Raptors on Friday night.
This is a very early start time on a Sunday afternoon. Sunday has been the single best under day in the NBA in the long-term, and it isn't even close. These early Sunday games tilt slightly more toward the under than the rest of the contests.
Charlotte has had several high scoring games in a row, but that was against Brooklyn twice, Golden State, and Houston. Those teams have a lot of very high scoring contests.
Portland ranks 23rd in tempo in their last 8 games. Charlotte ranks 21st in the NBA in tempo during that time. For two teams in the bottom ten of the NBA in tempo, this is a very high total.
The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. A 14-0 angle.
Take the under.
|03-01-19||Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226.5||117-119||Loss||-109||18 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Portland Blazers and Toronto Raptors meet on Friday night in Toronto. Both of these teams have been playing good defense of late. Both teams rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last six games. Portland ranks only 22nd in tempo during that time as well.
This is a game between two quality teams late in the season. Simply playing the under from game 60 to game 80 of the regular season in the NBA when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher has seen the under cash 57.5% of the time since 2005. This one fits this system.
I think both of these teams are clearly good on offense, but many don't realize how good they are on defense. This total is a few points high, and in the late season in a matchup between two quality teams I'll go with the under.
Take the under here.
|02-27-19||Blazers v. Celtics UNDER 227||97-92||Win||100||17 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics were called out by Brad Stevens after their loss in Toronto on Tuesday night. Stevens is very disappointed in the team's defensive effort. While this Celtics team has been disappointing on defense of late, they are still 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. Boston is fully capable of playing much better defense than they have of late.
Portland is a good offensive team, but they aren't nearly as efficient on the road. The Blazers are averaging 1.157 points per possession at home and only 1.094 points per possession on the road.
Boston ranks 17th in the NBA in tempo. Portland ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo. Both teams have played slightly slower than that in their last few games.
With the tempo this game should be expected to play out to, if either team struggles from the floor it will be hard to get to this total.
Take the under.
|02-25-19||76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans||111-110||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a bad loss at home to the Blazers. Portland beat them 130-115. New Orelans is coming off a stunning win over the Lakers. Anthony Davis didn't play in that game.
Joel Embiid is out here, but the 76ers still have plenty of talent to win this one. Philadelphia is fighting hard, while the Pelicans are best suited to tank at this point. Their team chemistry isn't very good with Davis clearly out the door after this season ends.
New Orleans is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight up win. Philadelphis is 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a loss by 10 points or more.
I don't think we'll see a big effort from New Orleans two games in a row. The oddsmakers are too low on the 76ers here.
|02-22-19||Bulls v. Magic OVER 217||110-109||Win||100||5 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls both trended toward much higher scoring games right before the break. Both teams sped up their pace and were much more efficient.
In the past six games, Orlando and Chicago rank second and third in the NBA in points per possession at 1.18 per possession each. Both rank in the top 20 in tempo as well after being bottom of the league tempo teams for much of the season.
Orlando has scored 117 points or more in six of their last eight games. They have allowed 122 points or more in four of those eight contests. The Bulls have scored 118 points or more in five of their last six contests.
Both teams have talked about speeding up play in the second half.
Eric Lewis is one of the refs calling this game, and he is one of the best over refs in the NBA. Marat Kogut also has been a pretty good over referee and he's calling this game as well.
Take the over.
|02-13-19||Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers||106-97||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers have played well of late, but they are getting too much respect here. The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most consistent team in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 42-14 on the year, and they have proven they are more than just a one superstar team at this point.
Indiana is without their star in Victor Oladipo. While they have played well of late, their upside isn't even close to as high as Milwaukee's right now.
Give Indiana credit for its winning streak of late, but they haven't been a really good team during this streak. Milwaukee is laying a shorter number than they should be thanks to Indiana's recent success.
Milwaukee is second in the league in field goal percentage on the season. The Bucks move the ball well and get good looks on a consistent basis.
I like the Bucks to go into the break with a solid win here.
|02-12-19||Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies||108-107||Loss||-115||17 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs have been blown out several games in a row, but they have been blown out by quality teams. The Spurs are on their annual rodeo trip, and they are winless on the trip thus far. This is easily their best chance at a win, and with this being their final game before the All Star break, we should see a very focused team in Memphis on Tuesday night.
The Spurs are cashing at a 55.7% ATS clip coming off a straight up loss since 2005. The Spurs are a whopping 64-36 ATS when they are -6 ATS or worse on average in their last 3 games.
That isn't the only angle backing the Spurs here. San Antonio is playing with revenge here after Memphis beat them in their last meeting. A road team playing with revenge in the NBA has been a strong angle long term. The Spurs are also a quality team coming off a beatdown, and that is another strong angle.
Memphis is without Marc Gasol now, and they are trying to get accustomed to their new players. The Spurs will want this game badly, and this is a chance to buy low on the Spurs.
Take San Antonio.
|02-11-19||Clippers v. Wolves UNDER 231||120-130||Loss||-109||7 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The LA Clippers have a whole different look than they did a couple weeks ago. The Clippers rank 12th in offensive efficiency in the NBA for the entire season, but they rank only 21st in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. They have lost a lot of key offensive players during the trade deadline period.
Minnesota ranks 24th in pace in the NBA in their last eight games. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent contests. The Timberwolves have a lot of injury issues at the point guard spot, and that has led them to slow the tempo.
The Clippers are 10-2 to the under in their last 12 road games. For a game with a pace that isn't extremely high, this is an awfully high total.
Two of the three referees in this game are big under referees. Eric Dalen has a career under percentage of 56.6% (307 Unders 235 Overs).
Take the under.
|02-08-19||Bucks -8 v. Mavs||122-107||Win||100||19 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Friday Play of Day* The Milwaukee Bucks are playing some amazing basketball. Milwaukee is a complete team. While Milwaukee has been putting up some big numbers offensively, it is important to note that Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
Milwaukee is a really deep team, and they have multiple guys who have varying strengths. No doubt Giannis is their superstar, but he has more help around him now than most people realize.
Dallas has traded away most of their key players. Luka Doncic is tremendous, but the supporting cast around him right now is very weak. I like their move of picking up Porzingis, but that does nothing for them right now.
Dallas has overachieved of late, which has kept this number in check. Milwaukee is a top four team in the NBA, and they have been an ATS machine of late.
Lay the points here.
|02-05-19||Lakers -2.5 v. Pacers||94-136||Loss||-109||8 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Lakers* This is certainly a public side, but the public isn't always wrong. The Lakers are in a good spot here. Los Angeles is much more rested than the Pacers. Indiana is in their first game back from a 4 game road trip. The Pacers played on Saturday in Miami and then last night in New Orleans. They beat a shorthanded New Orleans team by two in a hard fought game last night.
The Lakers last two games were last Thursday against the Clippers and this past Saturday in Golden State. LeBron James rested on Saturday against the Warriors. He is expected to play today.
The Pacers aren't even close to the same team without Victor Oladipo. They aren't particularly deep to start with and I'm taking the Lakers to get a nice win here as much more rested team.
Take the Lakers.
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 227||112-128||Loss||-110||20 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star TGIF NBA Totals Takedown* The Utah Jazz were just humiliated in Portland on Wednesday night. Portland scored 45 points in the first quarter on their way to winning 132-105 over the Jazz. This is a Utah team that prides itself on defense, and their defense was at its very worst in their last game.
Utah now comes home to take on an Atlanta team that averages only 1.039 points per possession on the road this year. The Jazz should be focused on the defensive end here after that terrible performance in Portland.
There is a great angle backing this under. The under is a whopping 117-72 (61.9%) in Utah's home games against a team with a winning percentage of 50% or lower with a total of 194 or higher since 2006.
Utah tends to blow out bad teams and win with defense in these games. I expect a bounce back here and this is a very high total considering the spot.
Take the under.
|01-25-19||Knicks +9.5 v. Nets||99-109||Loss||-110||7 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Friday Fast MONEY* The Brooklyn Nets have been money in the bank as an underdog the last couple seasons. This is not a team I want to be laying a bunch of points with. That is even more the case when they are without Spencer Dinwiddie, who is averaging more than 17 points per game this year. Dinwiddie will be out several weeks due to an injury. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is also questionable for this game, and he's a key guy down low for this Nets team.
Brooklyn is just 50-61 ATS laying 5 points or more since 2008. When they are getting more than 50% of the public bets they are 32-48 ATS laying 5 points or more.
The Knicks have been competitive of late. They lost by only 3 to Philly. They lost by one point at Washington. They lost by four against Houston.
Brooklyn is shorthanded and they shouldn't be laying this many points.
Take the New York Knicks.
|01-23-19||Nuggets v. Jazz -3||108-114||Win||100||20 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Utah Jazz have Ricky Rubio back on the floor, and that's a big plus for the team. Utah is coming off a disappointing performance. The Jazz have been great at bouncing back in this spot though.
Denver has been beating up on bad teams of late. The Nuggets are definitely a good team, but they need to prove they can beat other high quality teams on the road. Denver is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Utah doesn't have a great record this year, but they are a very high quality team. They are healthier now, and they have a great home court advantage.
Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing at home and coming off a straight up loss. The home team is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle.
|01-18-19||Pelicans v. Blazers -3||112-128||Win||100||20 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Friday FAST CASH* The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a big effort on the road against the Golden State Warriors. New Orleans led for much of the game before Golden State made a run late and won that contest.
New Orleans is 6-18 straight up on the road this year. The Pelicans clearly have talent, but they haven't been consistent at all.
Portland has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. Portland is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
The Blazers have been excellent at home in recent weeks, and they have plenty of reason to be up for this game. Remember who swept them out of the playoffs last year? Yes, it was the New Orleans Pelicans.
New Orleans is coming off a discouraging loss where they had a chance to beat Golden State. Portland is coming off an easy win over the Cavs. I'll lay the short number here.
|01-16-19||Nets +5.5 v. Rockets||145-142||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Brooklyn Nets have been sneaky good this year. That is especially true in recent weeks. They are 14-5 in their last 19.
Houston isn't the same team without Clint Capela. They will badly miss his defense. Chris Paul is out. Eric Gordon is questionable. James Harden is amazing, but he doesn't have much help right now.
Brooklyn is a very scrappy team that generally keeps nearly every game close.
The Nets are cashing at a 65% clip ATS on the road since 2015 when they getting less than 50% of the bets. The public bet percentage on them here is only 19%!
A strong system backs this one. Eastern Conference teams getting 3.5 points or more on the road against a Western Conference team are hitting at a 63% ATS rate since 2015 when the Western Conference team has an ATS cover rate of 50% or higher on the year (52% for Houston).
I'll fade the public and back the Nets here.
|01-14-19||Blazers +3 v. Kings||107-115||Loss||-109||7 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Portland Blazers have been playing good basketball of late. Portland has shown they have a high upside. They have had one of the best backcourts in the NBA the last few years in Lillard and McCollum. The team has gotten much better now though since Nurkic has become a very dependable big man in the middle.
Portland put up a good fight last night in Denver. I ran a query to see how teams have done after a game in Denver- they have done surprisingly well.
A team who is on a road trip after playing a road game in Denver who also fits the following-
-Their opponent has an ATS win percentage of higher than 50% on the year (Kings are at 59%)
-The public bet percentage on this team is 51% or less (34% of the bets are on Portland here).
This system is 57-33 ATS (63.3%). Portland didn't have a day off, but this exact same spot on the second game of a back to back is 20-7 ATS.
This line has been pushed up to a full possession. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
|01-13-19||Blazers v. Nuggets -4||113-116||Loss||-109||18 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on the Nuggets* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a disappointing loss to Phoenix on Saturday night. Denver now goes back home though, and the Nuggets are 17-3 straight up at home. Portland is just 8-10 on the road.
Portland and Denver both have two of the best home court advantages in the NBA. Portland has been at home picking up nice wins and feeling good about themselves. Now, they go on the road to play at altitude against a Denver team that should be highly motivated for this contest.
Portland is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 in Denver. The Blazers haven't proven they can win consistently on the road in tough environments.
The Nuggets depth and efficiency on offense are likely to be too much here for the Blazers.
Denver is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Portland is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The price is cheaper than it should be thanks to Portland's hot streak of late.
|01-11-19||Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 231||106-113||Win||100||17 h 39 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards are a better defensive team without John Wall in the lineup. Washington ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season overall. Washington ranks 14th in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games.
Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Bucks are allowing only 1.027 points per possession in their last 10. Milwaukee has played slower on the road this year than at home. The Bucks have slowed down their tempo a bit in general in recent weeks, and the Wizards are a bit slower without Wall pushing it as well.
The under is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 road games. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 vs. the NBA Central. A 17-1 trend.
Take the under.
|12-30-18||Kings v. Lakers +1.5||114-121||Win||100||19 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Sunday Night SMASHER* The Los Angeles Lakers were ahead of the Sacramento Kings nearly the entire game in Sacramento on Thursday night. The Kings won on a buzzer beater three by a single point. They erased a 15 point deficit on their home court.
The Kings have been making a habit out of winning games after being down big of late. That's a sign of a gritty team, but that kind of effort every night takes a toll on you over time. The Kings can't keep doing that every time.
The Lakers want this one badly. The quotes after the game in Sacramento the other night were pretty strong from each side. This is turning into a rivalry. The Lakers have a great young nucleus. While LeBron James isn't expected to play here, they were without him the last time these two met and outplayed Sacramento on the road for most of the game. Kyle Kuzma is playing great basketball, and the return of Brandon Ingram is key for the Lakers.
The Kings are covering 61% of their games so far this year, and I see some regression to the mean in their near future.
Look for a strong effort from the Lakers on their home floor here.
Take the Lakers.
|12-25-18||Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 227.5||109-95||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has been great to under bettors in the NBA since this tradition started. The strongest under angles come in the early games and in games that aren't between divisional opponents. This one meets both of those filters.
Milwaukee has been playing much better defense of late. The Bucks have allowed 105 points or less in 7 of their last 10 games. They have kept 4 of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. The Bucks have slowed their tempo a bit in recent weeks as well.
The Knicks have the same offensive efficiency rate on the road as they have at home. The difference for them is they are better on defense at home than on the road. They get a home game at MSG on Christmas here.
This is such a high total and with there being question marks about whether these teams might pack it in early here or not, I have to take the value with the under.
The under is 27-11 in the last 38 non-divisional games on Christmas Day.
Take the under.
|12-18-18||Lakers -2 v. Nets||110-115||Loss||-109||17 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Los Angeles Lakers played brilliantly two games ago in Charlotte, but things went off track badly in their last game in Washington. LeBron James scored a season low 13 points in that one.
The Lakers overall have definitely played better in recent weeks, and I expect them to come ready to play here.
The Nets have a nice win streak going right now, which allows us to get this at a discounted price. While the Nets are a scrappy team, they don't have the talent the Lakers have. They aren't likely to catch the Lakers sleeping in this one after an embarrassing showing last game for LA.
Taking good teams (50% SU on the year or higher) on the road off a blowout loss is 55% ATS in the last ten years in the NBA. When the opponent is coming off a win of 6 points or more last game, that number goes up to 59% ATS. The Lakers fit this system.
Take the Lakers.
|12-14-18||Hawks +13 v. Celtics||108-129||Loss||-103||16 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star TGIF NBA System Play SMASHER* The Boston Celtics are laying a big number here. Boston hasn't been good at all laying big numbers under Brad Stevens. Stevens is a tremendous coach, but his teams have done well in small favorite roles and as an underdog.
Boston isn't even close to 100 percent. The Celtics are without Al Horford here. Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown are both questionable with illnesses. I don't see why the team would want to rush them back when they are playing against the Hawks. One would think they would either be very limited in playing time or they will sit this one out.
Atlanta has been playing hard of late. The Hawks aren't very good, but they aren't just laying down. They have enough scorers to keep the opposition honest.
Boston is a terrible 5-24 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 8.5 points or more. The Celtics are shorthanded and they have no real reason to be highly motivated for this game. I'll grab the points here.
|12-10-18||Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 217||113-122||Loss||-110||17 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Oklahoma City Thunder were beaten out of the NBA playoffs last year by the Utah Jazz. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year, and I would expect them to work very hard on defense in a game that means so much to them. The Thunder have been at their best defensively of late. Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to score only 0.979 points per possession in their last eight games.
Utah has underachieved defensively so far this year, but the Jazz are improving. On the year, they are 12th in defensive efficiency. In their last six games, they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
These two teams met ten times last year. One game was 224, one was 217.. and the rest were 209 or lower. In fact, 6 of the 10 games finished at 197 points or lower.
This is a very high total for a game involving these two teams. Expect a motivated defensive effort from both teams.
Take the under.
|12-07-18||Thunder v. Bulls +8.5||112-114||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA TGIF CASH* The Chicago Bulls have a new head coach, and for a team that has struggled so badly but does have some young talent, a new coach is likely a positive thing. In professional leagues, we often see a short term improvement in performance from bad teams when they get a new coach.
Oklahoma City is in a tough spot here. The Thunder came back from a 23 point deficit against the Brooklyn Nets in their last game. They used up a lot of energy doing that, and this is a game where that could certainly hurt their chances of winning by a large margin.
This is a fade of the public as well. Oklahoma City has been on a big winning streak, and the public is betting them in a big way here.
Grab the points.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings +3||133-121||Loss||-110||20 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA on TNT CASH* The Sacramento Kings are a much improved team this year. Sacramento has a ton of talented youngsters, and they have gotten better faster than most people expected.
Sacramento rarely gets a chance to be on national television, but this is a great spot for the Kings with extra rest and on on national television. Why wouldn't they be motivated for a game like this?
The Clippers are off to a good start this year, though I do believe they may come back down to earth a bit in the weeks upcoming. It's a back to back spot for the Clippers here after they beat Phoenix on Wednesday, so they aren't nearly as rested as Sacramento.
A good home underdog on national television always interests me at least some, and I think Sacramento has a good chance of winning outright here.
|11-19-18||Celtics -2 v. Hornets||112-117||Loss||-105||16 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics haven't played very well this year. Brad Stevens called his team out in a big way after their home loss to Utah. He wondered if the team is tough enough and said something needs to change quickly in the approach of this team. Stevens is very respected and I think the team as a whole will respond to his comments.
Charlotte is coming off an overtime loss. The Hornets aren't a bad team, but they don't match up well with the Celtics. Charlotte has routinely been beaten badly by this Boston team.
Brad Stevens' teams have been money on the road. Stevens teams are a whopping 94-59 ATS (61.4% wins) when favored by 2 or less or set as an underdog. That's the spot they are in here.
|11-14-18||Bulls +12 v. Celtics||82-111||Loss||-104||17 h 12 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday night. Boston is better than their record would indicate, and I certainly expect them to improve throughout the year. However, this is a team that is still trying to figure things out with totally different players in key spots this year compared to last. Additionally, Brad Stevens coached teams very rarely blow out bad teams.
The Chicago Bulls have been playing very hard of late. Chicago clearly doesn't have the same kind of talent that Boston does, but the Bulls have fought to close losses against very good teams in the past couple weeks.
There is a great system that this game meets. It is fading the Boston Celtics as a big favorite. With Brad Stevens as coach- the Celtics are a ridiculous 1-21 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 8.5 points or more against a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the season.
Just laying 8.5 points or more, the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games. They have let the much weaker teams stay close consistently.
Grab the points here.
|11-07-18||Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4||87-89||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a win over the Boston Celtics in their last game. That was an extremely emotional game that went right down to the wire. While Memphis isn't a team that is elite by any stretch of the imagination, they are still going to be a very tricky matchup as long as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy.
Memphis won't be popular with the betting public here, but that is fine with me. The Grizzlies are a contrarian look here. Denver has been playing a lot of high profile games and this is a potential letdown spot.
Denver has been a much better team at home in recent seasons, and I would expect that to continue this year. The Nuggets are still a young team, and they are going to be inconsistent.
Memphis is coming off two losses, while Denver comes into this one off four straight wins. That has inflated the price here in a game that should go to the wire.
Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NBA Southwest Division. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle.
|11-02-18||Knicks v. Mavs -5.5||118-106||Loss||-110||17 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of the Day* The Dallas Mavericks are an improved team this year. The New York Knicks are going nowhere fast. They both enter with the same record, but a closer look here shows the Mavericks have had some really tough close losses on the road this season. This is a get right spot for Dallas.
DeAndre Jordan makes the Mavericks defense much better this year. Luka Doncic has been tremendous as advertised this year as well, and he gives this team much more firepower. Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews are solid starters also. Dallas is a well-rounded team that should continue to be undervalued for a while against the spread.
New York is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The Knicks have relied on second chance points a lot so far this year, but Dallas is first in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Knicks offense isn't likely to be efficient enough here.
|10-31-18||Pistons +3 v. Nets||119-120||Win||100||7 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pistons* The Detroit Pistons are in a back to back spot here, but long-term the history shows that fading road teams on a back to back in the early season NBA schedule isn't a good move. In fact, blindly backing teams on the second end of a back to back has been great to bettors in the first 12 games of the NBA schedule. Up through game number 12 of the season, road teams on a back to back are 57.6% ATS since 2005 in the NBA. Detroit is in that spot here.
Brooklyn is a team that can struggle on the boards, and that's a big problem against Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. The Pistons beat the Nets earlier this year despite shooting the ball very poorly. Detroit dominated on the glass in that one.
Detroit has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. The matchups favor the Pistons and this situation is better for the Pistons than most realize.
|10-30-18||Pistons +9.5 v. Celtics||105-108||Win||100||16 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Detroit Pistons are 4-1 so far this year. What was their one loss? Detroit lost by 20 points on their home floor to the Boston Celtics in their last game. Boston was 14/34 from 3 point range in that game. Detroit was 7/37 from 3 point range. That's the type of statistic that tends to regress.
Early in the NBA season- big underdogs have done very well in the long run. In the first 6 games of the season (this is game 6 for the Pistons) teams who are dogged by 8 points or more are hitting 57% ATS since 2005. If they are up against a team who made the postseason last year, that number goes to 59% ATS. This game fits that system.
Boston has been terrible as a big favorite as well. The Celtics are an awful 2-21 ATS in their last 23 games when laying 8.5 points or more.
Boston is a very good team, but the Celtics haven't been consistent so far this year. Detroit is likely to play hard here given the spot.
Detroit has rapid revenge on their side and a couple other very strong long-term angles. I have to grab the points here with the underdog.
|10-26-18||Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors||107-116||Win||100||16 h 34 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA TGIF Bookie CRUSHER* I had the Dallas Mavericks as a team I wanted to bet as an underdog early this year. I expect them to be much better than they were a year ago. Dallas' "clutch time" statistics last year suggest their record from a year ago would be nearly impossible for them to replicate. Why so? Dallas went a ridiculously bad 12-38 in clutch time games last year. That's a 24% winning percentage and that is far worse than anyone else in the league went. By default they would be better this year.
Dallas added Luka Doncic, and he has already proven to be ready to make a big contribution right away for the Mavericks. They also added DeAndre Jordan. Jordan makes this team much better on the defensive end.
Harrison Barnes has been out with an injury, but he is expected to make his season debut in this game.
Toronto is unbeaten this year, and the Raptors are a good team, but laying this many points against a much improved Dallas team doesn't make any sense to me.
Double digit dogs in the NBA have done great early in the season for the past decade, and I think this is a big dog with too much value to pass up.
|10-24-18||Jazz +2 v. Rockets||100-89||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Utah Jazz* The Utah Jazz will face a short-handed Houston Rockets team tonight. Houston is without Chris Paul due to his suspension. James Harden is a star, but Chris Paul really makes this team go. We saw that last year, and I expect the same this season. If anything, this Houston team appears a little weaker than a year ago. Carmelo Anthony can do some scoring, but he hurts them on the defensive end.
Utah will be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA again this year. The Jazz don't have any key injuries thus far. I love Mitchell at the point guard spot without Paul to man up on him.
Houston knocked Utah out of the playoffs last year. The Jazz were very competitive in Houston last season, and that was with Paul on the floor. I see Utah as a team on the rise and Houston as a little weaker than last season. They are much weaker without Paul.
The referee crew here helps also. The three referees combined have a combined road/home ATS record of 754-694 ATS. Tony Brothers is the biggest road referee in the NBA (53.3% ATS all time) so that is a bonus here.
While only 48% of the bets are on Utah, 78% of the money is on them. The sharp money likes the Jazz.
|10-23-18||Kings +11 v. Nuggets||112-126||Loss||-105||18 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Sacramento Kings* The Denver Nuggets are coming off a win over the Golden State Warriors. Who do they play after this game? They go to Los Angeles to take on LeBron James and the Lakers. This is a really good letdown spot contest. Denver can't be too terribly excited to play Sacramento at home in this kind of a sandwich spot.
Sacramento has a lot more young talent this season. Marvin Bagley III is a key contributor now, and De'Aaron Fox is a budding star. The Kings have all sorts of length in the frontcourt, and they have the potential to matchup with Denver's forwards better than most can.
Taking underdogs early in the season in the NBA has been a good way to look in the long run. Underdogs of 8 points or more in the first 6 games of the NBA season are at 58% ATS in the last 10 years. That's not something that should be overlooked. This angle makes a lot of sense to me since everyone is fighting hard and has something to prove early in the season. No one is tanking or worn out early in the season.
Denver is in a tough situational spot here, and I'll grab the points.
|10-22-18||Magic +12 v. Celtics||93-90||Win||100||16 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Orlando Magic* The Boston Celtics are going to be a really good team this year. Still, this is a letdown spot for the Celtics. Boston has played the 76ers and Raptors in their first two games. Those might be the the other two teams trying to beat them for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. In their third game, they traveled to Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks. Now, they come home to play an Orlando Magic team that would be easy to overlook.
Orlando isn't a good team, but they are playing very hard for new coach Steve Clifford right now. They do have some good young players on this team, and these guys are healthy for once. Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Terrence Ross are all healthy. Mo Bamba is giving the team some quality minutes in his first few games as well.
The most important reason for this play to me is how Brad Stevens' Celtics have done when laying a big number. The Celtics are a miserable 2-20 ATS in their last 22 games laying 8.5 points or more.
I'll look for Boston to win here, but not cover the big number.
|10-19-18||Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves||123-131||Win||100||17 h 53 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA TGIF ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Minnesota Timberwolves have some serious chemistry problems right now. Jimmy Butler badly wants off this team, and by the sounds of the quotes lately from the locker room- these guys aren't getting along well at all.
Minnesota hasn't been good as a favorite at home against a team with a losing record in recent years either. The Timberwolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games as a 8.5 point favorite or smaller against a team with a losing record. Even when they had good chemistry, the Timberwolves have struggled to put away bad teams in these spots.
Cleveland isn't going to be a good team, but they do still have some talent. They aren't likely to be a cellar dweller. The Cavs seem motivated and they didn't play all that badly against a very good Toronto team in game one. Kevin Love returns back to go against his old team in Minnesota.
Underdogs have done well in the first couple weeks of the season in the NBA the last few years, and that makes sense to me since everyone thinks they have a real chance to contend early in the season.
Grab the points and fade Minnesota's ugly situation.
|10-17-18||Wolves v. Spurs -2||108-112||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Spurs* Yes, the Minnesota Timberwolves have more talent than the Spurs. The Spurs do own a large coaching advantage here though, and the Spurs don't have the massive chemistry issues that the Timberwolves do.
Minnesota has a big issue with Jimmy Butler trying hard to get traded. He has reportedly burned down almost every bridge he has with this team, and there have been some very strong quotes coming from his teammates of late. That isn't a good situation as we start the regular season.
The Spurs aren't as talented as they were years ago, but they do have DeMar Derozan and LeMarcus Aldridge to lead the team. Last year they were without Kawhi Leonard nearly all year. They are at least as talented now as they were for much of last season.
The Timberwolves are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games. The Spurs are 10-3 ATS on at least 3 days of rest. With a top coach and lots of time to get ready for this game, I'll back the Spurs.
Take San Antonio.
|06-08-18||Warriors v. Cavs +5||108-85||Loss||-110||11 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs are in desperation mode. They likely know they are going to lose this series, but I think they have enough pride to play really hard here.
Golden State is well known for not showing up with their "A Game" all the time. The Warriors go through the motions at times and let people hang around. Cleveland led for much of Game 3, and LeBron James had a subpar shooting game by his standards.
The Cavs are dominating on the offensive glass. Cleveland's second chance opportunities should be key in this one.
The NBA would certainly like to see another game here to make some more money. Golden State might not mind going to another game to win in front of their home fans either.
I think we get a strong effort from Cleveland. I'll fade the public and take the points.
|05-27-18||Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 201.5||87-79||Win||100||45 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland.
On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss.
This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals.
Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player.
Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here.
Take the under.
|05-21-18||Celtics +7 v. Cavs||102-111||Loss||-110||21 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Boston Celtics ATS* The Cleveland Cavs embarrassed Boston last game. Cleveland had to win last game to stand any chance in the series, and Boston was feeling a little too good about themselves after their 2-0 start to the series. Guard Terry Rozier said the humbling defeat in Game 3 did Boston some good.
Boston ranked first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Celtics were torched all night long by Cleveland in game three. I don't expect the Celtics defense to perform that poorly again here. Boston has a tremendous coach in Brad Stevens. Stevens is likely to have his team ready to go for this one after such a poor effort last time around.
Cleveland is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games as a favorite of 5.5 points or larger. They haven't been good at covering big spreads in a long time, and this Cavs team still has plenty of flaws.
This is a prime bounce back spot and in the NBA playoffs, teams off a blowout loss have been good ATS in the last 15 years.
The public is all over Cleveland now- because of what they saw last game. I'll grab the points and the Celtics.
|05-15-18||Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5||94-107||Loss||-110||18 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two.
Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season.
In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made.
Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total.
I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here.
Take the over.
|05-14-18||Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets||119-106||Win||100||20 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Golden State* The Golden State Warriors have one of the best teams the NBA has ever seen. Golden State is absolutely loaded with talent and they have a very good coach in Steve Kerr.
Houston deserves a lot of credit for what they have done this year. The Rockets are a very good team. Still, their upside isn't as high as Golden State's. If the Warriors are ready to go and are healthy, they should win this series.
Golden State is the much better defensive team- and I trust Kerr more than D'Antoni as well.
The Warriors should be highly motivated here knowing that they are underdogs in this game and that several in the media think Houston will take them down. Golden State is playing their best basketball right now. The 2-1 regular season advantage for Houston means little to me right now. Golden State only cares about the postseason at this point, and the Warriors should be anxious to prove a point.
Look for a strong performance from Golden State in the first game of the series.
Take Golden State.
|05-09-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 204||112-114||Loss||-105||19 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here.
Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense.
Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year.
There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard.
A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system.
Take the under.
|05-07-18||Raptors +6 v. Cavs||93-128||Loss||-110||19 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Toronto Raptors* The Cleveland Cavaliers have been terrible against the spread as home favorites all year. Cleveland is up 3-0 here, and the Cavs have gotten sensational efforts from LeBron James in this series. Toronto was the better regular season team, and they have been very competitive in 2 of the 3 games in this series despite ugly performances from some of their top players.
James isn't getting much in the way of help from his teammates, and that makes it hard to cover a big number against a quality team. Though Cleveland has played a bit better in recent games- this is still a very flawed team. James is the best player in the league by a wide margin, but the team as a whole isn't what it was in the past.
The Cavs are 10-30-1 ATS as a 2.5 point or larger home favorite this year. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 in this situation.
I think this game stays close. I'll grab the points with the deeper team.
|05-03-18||76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207||103-108||Loss||-103||42 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well.
The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses.
Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One.
Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest.
Look for things to regress toward the mean here.
Take the under.
|04-27-18||Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 204.5||87-121||Loss||-110||42 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs.
Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series.
All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor.
Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling.
Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here.
This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams.
Take the under.
|04-24-18||Spurs v. Warriors -11||91-99||Loss||-105||21 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% System SMASHER* The Golden State Warriors shot the ball terribly in Game 4, and they now have to come home and finish things off against the Spurs here.
The San Antonio Spurs know they have lost this series. They have a lot of pride and were able to fight to win one game, but I don't think this game will be very competitive. I wouldn't expect the Warriors to shoot the ball so poorly again, and the Spurs have been a really bad road team of late.
I have several systems I follow in the NBA during the playoffs- and one of them gives me a nice 14-0 angle here.
The 14-0 ATS angle is as follows: Backing a home favorite with a win percentage of 64% or higher against a team with a win percentage of 64% or lower when the home favorite is off a loss by at least 11 points in the previous game. The home favorite must have an overall ATS record on the season of 50% or lower as well. Golden State meets this angle.
If you get rid of the team ATS must be lower than 50%- the angle is 33-9-1 ATS (78.6%). In all, backing a home favorite off a blowout has been a great play. Golden State should take care of business here.
Take the Warriors.
|04-24-18||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5||87-92||Win||100||16 h 4 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range.
Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under.
The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this.
I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5.
Take the under.
|04-22-18||Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 205.5||104-100||Win||100||17 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow.
The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here.
The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here.
Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key.
None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200.
Take the under.
|04-22-18||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 204.5||102-104||Loss||-108||11 h 13 m||Show|
*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again.
Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end.
The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average).
The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's.
This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve.
Take the under.
|04-20-18||Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5||90-92||Win||100||16 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle.
The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here.
Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted.
Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits:
-A total of 191 or higher
-Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year
-Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year
The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system.
Take the under.
|04-18-18||Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 206.5||102-95||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season.
Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two.
These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me.
Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.
The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well.
Take the under.
|04-16-18||Heat v. 76ers UNDER 215.5||113-103||Loss||-105||17 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one.
Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions.
Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well.
These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue.
Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here.
Take the under.
|04-14-18||Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 217.5||97-95||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series.
Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo.
New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games.
The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters.
Take the under.
|04-14-18||Heat +7 v. 76ers||103-130||Loss||-105||27 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Saturday ATS Best Bet* The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team. They deserve a lot of credit for everything they have done. Still, there is definitely some recency bias in this number.
The 76ers have won 15 games in a row. It would be hard for their price to not be inflated here. It is inflated.
The Heat and 76ers squared off four times this year. The Heat won twice and the 76ers won twice. The Heat won by nine and by a single point. The 76ers wins came by 6 points and 2 points. These teams have played some very close games against each other.
In the NBA playoffs, fading a team with a high ATS cover percentage on the year has been a good strategy, especially when backing a team with a mediocre cover rate. The 76ers covered 58% of their games this year. The Heat covered 52% of their games.
The Heat are very good on the road. Miami is 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
The 76ers are a young team and they will be without Joel Embiid who is one of their two stars (Simmons the other). Though they have been playing great without him of late, they are clearly a better team with Embiid.
The 76ers are new to the playoffs and they have the highest turnover percentage of anyone in the NBA.
Grab the points.
|04-11-18||Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 212||106-112||Loss||-105||18 h 26 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home.
While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues.
There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important.
With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game.
Take the under.
|04-11-18||Nets -1 v. Celtics||97-110||Loss||-105||7 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nets ATS* The Brooklyn Nets have no incentive to tank like other bad teams, and it has shown down the stretch. Brooklyn looks to head into the offseason with four straight wins. The Boston Celtics are resting a bunch of players, and I expect them to just be looking to get out of this game without anymore injuries.
Boston has been torn apart by injuries this year, and this Celtics team is limping to the finish. This game means nothing to Boston. Brooklyn will likely want to win again. Brooklyn has won four of their last five road games.
The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games against teams with a winning record.
The Celtics are resting Horford and Rozier (who has been carrying a lot of the scoring load of late).
|04-07-18||Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 202.5||105-116||Loss||-109||6 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Blazers in a battle of teams who will be fighting hard for the playoff standings. Portland is in the playoffs, but they are working to secure the third seed. San Antonio could still miss the playoffs if they can't things around late in the regular season.
These types of games have proven very good to under bettors in the past, and I see no reason why that would change going forward. As things tighten up and slow down, the under holds value.
I leaned strongly to the under here to start with and I have to play it after I see the referee crew for this contest. All 3 refs are big under guys. Between the 3 refs, if you had played the under in all of their career games as a ref- you would be up 79 units.
The under is 5-0 in Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 9-0 angle.
Take the under here.
|04-06-18||Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 223||Top||130-132||Loss||-105||27 h 41 m||Show|
*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the MONTH* The Cleveland Cavaliers go to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers on Friday night. This has turned into a massive game for both teams. These teams are jockeying for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they are just barely ahead of Indiana who sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference.
Late in the season when two good teams play against each other, I like to look to the under. Here's a great system that tracks something like this.
*Late in the season (between game 70 and 80 in the season) when teams in the same conference who have both won 60% or more of their games meet the under is a whopping 94-58-2 since 2005. That's 62% wins for the under.
Cleveland has slowed down of late. They are playing at the 28th quickest tempo out of 30 teams in the NBA in their last five games. Philly is only allowing 0.922 points per possession in their last five games, and in their last ten games they are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
With this game meaning a lot to both teams, I think they'll both be trying hard on defense. The pace should slow a bit as well.
The under is 11-1 in the Cavs last 12 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 trend.
Take the under. TOP Total of the MONTH
|04-05-18||Nets +8.5 v. Bucks||119-111||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Milwaukee Bucks have been miserable at covering at home as a favorite. They are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 home games as a favorite of 4.5 to 13 points. Milwaukee has played a bunch of close games against subpar teams.
Brooklyn has been very good as an underdog this year. They have been excellent ATS on the road both last year and this year. They are 47-29-3 ATS on the road in the last two seasons.
Carroll will miss this game for the Nets, but they do have a decent young nucleus. The Nets have continued to play hard all year, and they are in a bounce back spot after a blowout loss last game.
The Bucks are in a second game back home after a long road trip. This has been proven to be a bad covering spot over the years.
Milwaukee is 0-12 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorite of 5.5 points or more when playing an opponent with a win percentage of 36% or lower. The Nets have won 32% of their games this year, so this fits the system.
|04-01-18||Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 215.5||Top||111-104||Win||100||13 h 21 m||Show|
*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the WEEK* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Indiana Pacers in an early Sunday afternoon game at Staples Center. The Clippers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and this is a game they absolutely have to win. The Pacers are playing for seeding in a tight Eastern Conference race. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be ready to go for this one.
The Indiana Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo of late. Indiana has made a significant change to their style in the second half of the year. The Pacers are last in the NBA in tempo by more than one full possession per game in their last 10 games.
It's difficult for Indiana games to get this high scoring without some really high shooting numbers because of their ability to slow the game down. The last time these two teams played- there were 213 points scored and the Clippers shot 55% from the floor in that one.
The Pacers have had 18 straight games stay under this total in regulation.
Early Sunday games have been great under plays in the long run especially in West Coast games. This one gets the added benefit of being a game that both teams badly need when it comes to playoff positioning.
Take the under. TOP Total of the WEEK
|03-28-18||Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 195.5||97-94||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Boston Celtics are fifth. Utah is 14th in offensive efficiency in that time. Boston is 25th.
The Celtics continue to defend well, but without Irving and Smart this offense has really struggled. Marcus Morris is very questionable for this game as well.
On the year, Boston is number one in overall defensive efficiency in the NBA. Utah is number two.
Utah's defense is on another level at home. They are giving up 1.054 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing only 0.98 points per possession at home. That is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency at home.
Boston is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road allowing only 1.014 points per possession on the road.
When Kyrie Irving isn't on the floor this year, Boston's tempo has been the slowest of any team in the league.
Signs point to a low scoring game between two very good defenses.
Take the under.
|03-25-18||Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 203||110-91||Win||100||16 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Sunday night. Utah lit up the Golden State defense for 129 points in their last meeting. I don't think Golden State will forget that one.
Golden State's injury issues have gotten severe. Draymond Green is expected to play here, but Curry, Thompson, and Durant are all out. Other key backups are questionable as well. Golden State's potent offense isn't nearly as potent right now. In the last five games with all these injuries, Golden State is 22nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. Defensively, they are playing very well. They are 4th in the NBA in that time on defense. Green coming back helps the defense a bunch.
Utah has been the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the last ten games. Expect that strong defense to continue here. Utah will look to slow the game down as well.
The numbers show Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.
Take the under.
|03-25-18||Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5||108-105||Win||100||15 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star NBA Top Total of the WEEK* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Blazers meet in OKC on Sunday in a game that means a ton in the playoff standings. Right now, the Blazers are third in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is fourth and only one game behind them.
The Thunder have been a great under team against other top teams. The under is 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is also 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record overall.
This is a higher total than any of their first three meetings against each other were. I don't think this one should be the highest total yet this year when this game means so much to both teams and we are near the end of the regular season.
Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.
Take the under.
|03-23-18||Celtics v. Blazers UNDER 203||105-100||Loss||-105||6 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Celtics are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. The Portland Blazers are 7th. Portland and Boston both play slightly slower than the league average as far as tempo.
Kyrie Irving is out for the Celtics here. Also out are Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. In their last five games without those guys- Boston is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on offense. That is 28th in the NBA.
Portland is a good offensive team, but Boston's defense is solid and the Blazers have shown to be a team that slows down the pace if they have the lead late.
Two good teams late in the season is a good under angle. From game 60-80 of the regular season- when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, the under is cashing at a really impressive 61% clip in the last ten years.
Take the under.
|03-23-18||Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219||104-109||Win||100||15 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red HOT Totals CASH* The Indiana Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. Indiana also ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in that 10 game period. The Pacers rate 25th in offensive efficiency during that span.
The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last ten. The Clippers are 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency.
Both of these teams have actually been better defensively in non-conference games. The Pacers have played two possessions per game slower in their home games as they do a better job controlling the tempo. The Clippers have played one possession per game slower on the road as well.
In their last 19 games the Pacers have played one game that has gone over this posted total.
This is a late season game that means quite a bit to both teams- and that is a positive for the under. The Clippers still have a chance to get in the playoffs, and the Pacers are in a big battle for positioning in the Eastern Conference.
Take the under.
|03-21-18||Wizards +5 v. Spurs||90-98||Loss||-107||19 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards have played good basketball even without John Wall. Washington has been at their best away from home when it comes to covering the number.
The San Antonio Spurs have played better in their last few games, but this is still a team with plenty of flaws. They aren't consistent enough on the offensive end to be laying many points against quality teams.
The East vs. West matchups have been interesting the last few years. The Western Conference is certainly better than the Eastern Conference, but Eastern Conference dogs have been great since 2015 when going against Western Conference foes.
Eastern Conference road teams who are dogged by 3.5 points or more and are up against a team with an ATS cover rate of at least 51% on the year thus far are a whopping 110-59 ATS (65.1%). Washington fits this system.
Grab the points in what should be a close game.
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