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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-18-19||Padres v. Brewers -140||2-1||Loss||-140||17 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* The Milwaukee Brewers need to keep winning to keep pace in the NL Wild Card race, and they have been on fire of late. While they don't have Yelich now, guys like Moustakas and Hiera have been great of late.
The San Diego Padres have nothing to play for now, and it has shown in their recent results. The Padres offense ranks second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. San Diego has struggled all year against right handed pitching as well (they are 25th in wOBA against righties, while they are an above average team against lefties).
The Padres face righty Adrian Houser here. Houser has done a nice job for the Brewers this year. He has a great 3.12 ERA and a .280 wOBA allowed at home this year.
Dinelson Lamet starts for the Padres, and he's a quality pitcher- but he is prone to giving up a lot of walks and getting behind in the count. The Brewers are a very patient offense. Lamet hasn't won against good teams either. The Padres are 2-14 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Josh Hader is rested up and should be available to pitch for Milwaukee here.
The Padres are 0-8 in their last 8 road games. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game three of a series. A 25-0 angle.
|09-17-19||Phillies v. Braves -1.5||5-4||Loss||-100||23 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves -1.5* The Atlanta Braves start Dallas Keuchel here. It took him a while to get things going since he started the season so late. Keuchel didn't have his command early on, but it has come back of late. He has been throwing the ball extremely well. Keuchel has a 0.97 ERA in his last six starts. He has allowed just 4 runs in 37 innings pitched and has given up only one home run.
The Philadelphia Phillies start Vincent Velasquez here, and I don't trust him. Velasquez can't pitch deep into the game, and he has been getting torched by the Braves throughout his career. Velasquez has allowed Braves hitters an on base percentage of .445 in 112 at bats. Velasquez is allowing 2.08 home runs per nine innings and the Braves have plenty of power bats.
The Braves clearly have the better lineup, and they have the better starting pitcher here. Atlanta's bullpen has actually been slightly better than the Phillies bullpen in the past month as well.
The Braves are a perfect 6-0 in Velasquez's last 6 starts against them. The Braves are 6-0 in Keuchel's last 6 starts overall. The Phillies are 12-25 in Velasquez's last 37 starts against a team with a winning record. The Braves are 60-29 in their last 89 games overall.
Take Atlanta -1.5.
|09-13-19||Rays -129 v. Angels||11-4||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have so much more to play for here, and they are up against a very banged up Angels team.
Ohtani will now miss the rest of the season with an injury. Upton is unlikely to play here after a recent flare up of an injury. Mike Trout is said to be testing how it feels before the game Friday, but they are likely to be cautious with him. After all, the team is out of the playoff race.
Tampa Bay is in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, and they need this game badly. They have Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton has been great this year. He has a 3.11 ERA and a 2.75 FIP. Morton is generating a ton of swings and misses.
Andrew Heaney is a good starter for the Angels, but he's backed by a poor bullpen. The Rays bullpen is a top five bullpen in the majors, while the Angels bullpen is worse than an average MLB bullpen.
The Angels have scored a grand total of six runs in the last four games with Mike Trout out of the lineup. Ohtani is now injured, and Trout might still be out here.
The Angels are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 74-34 in their last 108 vs. a team with a losing record.
Take Tampa Bay.
|09-12-19||Rays v. Rangers UNDER 10.5||4-6||Win||100||17 h 25 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* Kolby Allard has been very good for the Texas Rangers. Allard is a young lefty who was one of the better pitching prospects in the Rangers organization. After some poor starts earlier this year, Allard has allowed a combined 3 runs in his last three starts. Allard is doing a great job inducing soft contact. Of the 103 batted balls against Allard, only two have been barreled.
Brendon McKay entered this year as a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. McKay has been up and down this year, but he is coming of a good start. He's also against a shorthanded Texas lineup here.
Both of these offenses have been shaky of late, and both of them are much weaker against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Texas ranks 25th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay isn't much better at #20.
This is clearly a hitters ballpark, but we have two good lefties and a high total. The Rangers bullpen has been league average in the past month. The Rays bullpen has been top 10 in the majors all year.
The under is 7-2 in the Rangers last 9 games vs. a lefty.
Take the under.
|09-11-19||Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 9||7-5||Loss||-115||16 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers lost their superstar Christian Yelich to a fractured kneecap on Tuesday night. Yelich was having an amazing season, and as a fan I absolutely hated seeing him go down.
Ben Gamel and Hernan Perez are expected to get a lot of time in the outfield in place of Christian Yelich. I don't have to tell you that it is a big downgrade from Yelich to either of those guys. The Brewers offense only ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days even with Yelich in the lineup. Manny Pina is out of the lineup as well.
The Miami Marlins have had the worst offense in baseball this year. In 8 of their last 11 home games they have scored 3 runs or less. Zach Davies doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he does induce soft contact and he should be able to navigate through this weak offense.
Pablo Lopez is a high upside pitcher who has been tremendous at home this year. Lopez has a 0.93 WHIP at home this season. He is coming off an excellent start in his last outing.
A total this high with a game involving the Marlins is fairly rare, and with the Brewers shorthanded on offense I'll side with the under.
Take the under.
|09-10-19||Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 8||2-3||Win||102||21 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* This game means a lot to both teams as they battle in the crowded NL Wild Card race.
The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in four of their last six games. This isn't a particularly deep lineup, and they have struggled in recent days.
The Mets start Zach Wheeler here, and he has been in great form of late. Wheeler has allowed only one run in each of his last two starts. He also has allowed 0 or 1 run in four of his last seven starts.
Zach Gallen was one of the highest rated pitching prospects in baseball, and he has great stuff. Gallen has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% this year. He has a 1.41 and 1.79 FIP in his last two starts.
Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He'll help both pitchers.
Take the under.
|09-08-19||Tigers v. A's OVER 9||1-3||Loss||-107||14 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's have both been involved in a lot of high scoring games of late. In Detroit's last ten games there has been an average of 10.6 runs scored. In the A's last ten games, there has been an average of 10.6 runs per game scored.
Detroit's bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors in FIP on the year, and Daniel Norris hasn't been pitching deep into thte game of late. Norris has gone only 3 innings in each of his last 5 outings. Oakland is much better against left handed pitching as well. I would expect Oakland to have a lot of scoring opportunities in this game.
While the Tigers offense isn't good, they are much better against lefties than right handed pitching. Sean Manaea hasn't been going deep into games in the minors either, and while the A's late inning bullpen is great their middle relief is questionable.
A good umpire for the over here in David Rackley.
Take the over.
|09-06-19||Cardinals -1.5 v. Pirates||4-9||Loss||-100||6 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are a team that is playing their best baseball at the right time of the year. The Cardinals have a deep bullpen, and they were able to save that bullpen yesterday. Miles Mikolas has thrown the ball very well in his last 3 outings. Mikolas has 0 walks and 18 strikeouts in those games. Mikolas has a very solid .298 weighted on base average allowed against this Pirates lineup.
|09-05-19||Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||0-10||Loss||-101||12 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals played a high scoring tight game on Wednesday night, but I think this one is a lower scoring contest once again. Before last night, the last 3 games between these two teams had finished 1-0, 3-1, and 1-0.
Dakota Hudson has been a streaky pitcher in his career. Hudson has pitched far better at home, and he has a much better WHIP in day games in his career. Hudson's biggest weakness is his lack of control. The Giants aren't a team with good plate discipline though. San Francisco has the second lowest walk percentage in the majors in the past month. Hudson hasn't allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 outings.
Logan Webb is a highly touted prospect for the Giants. Webb had tremendous numbers in the minors, and he has been good in 2 of his 3 big league starts. Webb has good swing and miss stuff, and these Cardinals hitters have never seen him before.
Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the better under umpires in the majors. This is a get away day game as well.
Both of these bullpens are top notch, and the two defensive are good as well.
Take the under here.
|09-04-19||Phillies -124 v. Reds||5-8||Loss||-124||17 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Cincinnati Reds appear to have essentially packed up their tents for the season. Cincinnati played back to back double headers in St. Louis this past weekend, and their bullpen has been overused in a big way. The team had hopes of making the playoffs this year, but they have fallen short and they know that now.
The Philadelphia Phillies are right in the thick of the playoff race, and they have their ace on the mound in this one. Aaron Nola has been fantastic in recent months. Nola has a 2.21 ERA since June 25. Nola is allowing only 0.86 homers per nine innings during that time. He is consistently pitching deep into the game as well.
Trevor Bauer has been really bad of late. Bauer has a 9.17 ERA in his last seven starts. Bauer has a history of being at his worst late in the season. Bauer's worst ERA by month in his career is September. Additionally, Bauer has allowed a wOBA of .299 in the first half of the season in his career. He has allowed a significantly higher .332 wOBA in the second half of the season.
The Phillies are 39-19 in Nola's last 58 starts. They are 21-8 in his last 29 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|09-02-19||Astros v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||3-2||Win||100||14 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Gerrit Cole here. Justin Verlander just threw a no hitter yesterday, so the Astros bullpen is clearly well rested.
Cole's season long numbers are absolutely amazing. He has better advanced metrics than does Verlander. While I'm not saying he actually is better than Verlander, the two of them are far closer than many would believe. Cole has a great 2.85 ERA on the year, but in his last 14 starts he has a 1.94 ERA. Cole has a ridiculous 36 strikeouts and only 2 walks in his last three starts.
Adrian Houser has been getting a lot of soft contact of late, and this is a guy who I was too low on for quite a while. This is a very tough Astros lineup, but Houser has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last four starts. He has a tremendous .276 wOBA allowed at home this year.
The under has been the way to look long term in the interleague contests, and the Astros lose a hitter here for this one. In addition, Correa is injured and Gurriel is questionable with an elbow contusion.
Take the under.
|09-01-19||Marlins v. Nationals -1.5||3-9||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been fantastic at home this year. Corbin has a 1.83 ERA at home on the year. Opponents are hitting just .196 and have a wOBA of .232 against him at Nationals Park this year.
Corbin has faced the Marlins 3 times this year. He has pitched 23 innings and allowed only 2 runs. He has struck out 21 batters and has only walked two. This Marlins lineup is a weak one, and Corbin has dominated them.
The Nationals bullpen is bad, but they are better than the Marlins bullpen. The Nationals rank 20th in xFIP in the last 30 days as a bullpen. The Marlins rank dead last in the majors.
Caleb Smith started the season out strong, but a closer look at what he has done lately shows how much he has been struggling. In his first 9 starts of the season, Smith had a 2.38 ERA and a FIP of 3.05. In his 13 starts since, Smith has a 5.32 ERA and a 6.08 FIP.
The Nationals are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They should be able to take advantage of Smith in his current form, and the Marlins bullpen is a mess.
I like the Nationals on the run line with Corbin on the hill here.
Take Washington -1.5.
|08-31-19||Twins -135 v. Tigers||7-10||Loss||-135||15 h 43 m||Show|
*4 star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins are 44-22 on the road this year. The Detroit Tigers are 17-47 at home this year.
Matt Boyd started the year pitching very well for Detroit, but he has been bad of late. Through his first 14 starts of the year, Boyd had a 3.08 ERA and a 2.98 FIP. In his 13 starts since, Boyd has a 6.05 ERA and a 5.46 FIP. He has given up 2.66 homers per nine innings during those 13 starts as well.
Boyd takes on a Minnesota lineup that is second in the majors in wOBA against lefties and first in wOBA on the road.
Martin Perez is doing a nice job of inducing soft contact this year. The Twins bullpen ranks second in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. The Tigers have a bottom ten bullpen.
The Tigers are 10-42 in their last 52 home games. The Tigers are 0-4 in Boyd's last 4 starts against Minnesota. The Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall.
The price is too cheap here on the much better team.
|08-30-19||Mets v. Phillies -131||11-5||Loss||-131||17 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The New York Mets have lost six straight games. New York has been the streakiest team in baseball so far this year.
The Mets have beaten up on bad teams this year, but they haven't been very good against quality teams. The Mets are 34-49 against teams with a .500 record or better so far this year.
The Phillies have been playing better baseball of late, and they have a very real chance of making the playoffs via the Wild Card spot if they can finish strong. Aaron Nola starts for them here, and he is clearly their ace. Nola started the season slowly, but he has been great of late.
Nola has a 3.53 ERA on the year, but since June 15th he has an ERA of 2.53. His WHIP during that time is 0.99.
Zack Wheeler has been worse on the road this year, and his control has been off in recent outings.
The Mets lineup has a miserable .253 wOBA against Nola in his career.
The Phillies are 30-11 in Nola's last 41 home games.
|08-28-19||Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5||3-0||Loss||-108||9 h 43 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Angels have been much better offensively at home than on the road. The over is 8-1 in the Angels last 9 home games. In this one, they'll be up against a very weak starting pitcher in Ariel Jurado. Jurado's velocity is down significantly of late, and he is giving up all kinds of hard contact. Jurado has allowed 22 runs in his last 13 and 2/3 innings. He isn't missing bats, and the Angels should get to him here. Jurado will be the bulk pitcher in this game after Emmanuel Clase will be the opener here.
Patrick Sandoval has some potential, but Sandoval struggles to throw strikes. The Rangers looked good against him recently. Sandoval also has yet to throw more than 5 innings in a game, and the Angels bullpen is shorthanded and has been in really poor form of late.
Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here- and he is one of the top three or four over umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show an extreme bias toward the hitter.
Take the over.
|08-27-19||Rays v. Astros UNDER 8||1-15||Loss||-100||27 h 55 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill while the Tampa Bay Rays send Charlie Morton to the hill on Tuesday night. These guys have been amazing all year, and they enter this game in great form. Verlander has an amazing 2.25 ERA and a .233 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season. Morton has given up a few runs in recent starts, but that has been largely due to poor batted ball luck.
Verlander has walked 3 batters and struck out 56 in his last five starts. That's remarkable stuff. Morton isn't far behind with 2 walks and 32 strikeouts in his last four starts.
What about the bullpen behind them? The Rays have the single best SIERA as a bullpen in the last 30 days. The Astros are second. These are two deep bullpens who are very strong.
Look for a low scoring game here as both starters get a lot of swings and misses.
The under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 games.
Take the under.
|08-25-19||Rockies v. Cardinals -1.5||4-11||Win||125||11 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* If you have been fading the Colorado Rockies on the road, you have been making a lot of money. In fact, their opponent is now 16-9 on the -1.5 run line in the Rockies last 25 road contests.
Antonio Senzetela has an ERA of 17.18 in his last three big league starts. For the year, he ranks in the bottom 1% of pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings. He also ranks in the bottom 5% of pitchers in hard hit rate on batted balls. He isn't fooling many people. He hasn't had success in Triple A either.
Michael Wacha is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has looked quite a bit better in his last two starts. One thing that caught my eye is Wacha is throwing his changeup a lot more in his last two starts. That's his best pitch, and he has had more success in his last couple starts. Wacha has plenty of potential.
The Rockies have a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Cardinals have a top five bullpen in baseball. The Rockies have the second worst weighted on base average on the road this year.
This game doesn't mean anything to the Rockies, while the Cardinals are in a heated division battle in the NL Central.
Take St. Louis -1.5.
|08-24-19||Rockies v. Cardinals -1.5||0-6||Win||106||16 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* If you fade the Rockies and take their opponent on the road at the -1.5 run line you are 15-9 in their last 24 road games. They have been getting smashed.
Chi Chi Gonzalez isn't good at all. Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. In Gonzalez's last 8 starts in the big leagues, his opposition has covered the -1.5 line in 7 of them. In the other game, Gonzalez's team lost by a single run. He is a pitch to contact guy who gives up a lot of hard contact. It's a really bad combination. He's backed by a Rockies bullpen that is a bottom five bullpen in the majors.
The Cardinals offense has heated up some of late. Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna are both swinging the bat much better of late. Dakota Hudson is an inconsistent pitcher, and there is some risk of him getting hit around here, but his splits at home are good and the Rockies rank second worst in the majors in road weighted on base average. Also, the Cardinals bullpen is a top five bullpen in baseball and that gives them a huge edge.
The Rockies defense has been an issue as well, while the Cardinals defense has been great this season.
Take St. Louis -1.5.
|08-23-19||Rockies v. Cardinals -1.5||3-8||Win||100||18 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Cardinals -1.5* The Colorado Rockies are really bad on the road. Colorado is 7-22 in their last 29 road games. Peter Lambert has been a big disappointment for the Rockies. Lambert has actually skated by a bit in recent starts despite some ugly signs. He has walked 13 batters and only struck out 9 in his last four starts. Lambert's velocity is down significantly in his last few starts as well.
Jack Flaherty is throwing the ball extremely well right now. How good has he been? Flaherty has allowed a grand total of 5 runs in his last eight starts. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of a solid 11.9%, and his swinging strike rate has improved in recent starts. He has much better numbers at home in his career than on the road. He also is backed by a top five bullpen in baseball here.
The Rockies bullpen is one of the three or four worst bullpens in baseball, and they will likely need to be used quite a bit in this one.
The Cardinals defense is one of the five or six best in baseball, and that can often be overlooked. The Rockies are a bottom ten defense in the majors.
The Rockies don't have anything to play for, while the Cardinals have everything to play for and their ace on the mound here.
Take the Cardinals -1.5.
|08-23-19||Phillies v. Marlins OVER 8.5||11-19||Win||100||16 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Anytime I see Hector Noesi starting for one team and the total in the game is set this low, I have to look to the over. It doesn't hurt that Vince Velasquez is on the other side either.
Velasquez has a history of pitching his worst late in the season. He's already had a questionable season against this Marlins lineup. Velasquez is giving up far more hard contact this year than he did a year ago. His ERA is lower than last year, but all of the advanced metrics suggest he has been much worse this year. He is due for some regression. The Marlins offense has actually scored 5.45 runs per game in their last 11 home contests.
Noesi is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He went three years without pitching in the majors, and now he is back and getting crushed again as he did back in 2014 and 2015. Noesi wasn't good in the minors earlier this year (5.33 FIP) and now he has allowed 16 runs in less than 16 innings pitched in the majors this year. He's backed by a Marlins bullpen that has the worst FIP in baseball in the last 30 days.
Both teams have the potential to have some big innings in this one.
Take the over.
|08-23-19||Royals v. Indians UNDER 9||1-4||Win||106||16 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month, and it isn't even close. The Royals struggle to put together rallies because they just don't have enough big league quality hitters on their roster.
Zach Plesac has been good so far this year, and he goes up against a weak offense here. Plesac does give up a lot of home runs, but the Royals don't have much power and the conditions aren't favorable for hitting here.
Jakob Junis is an interesting pitcher in that he has drastically different splits in the first half of the season and second half of the season in his career. Junis has a 5.03 ERA and a .349 wOBA allowed in the first half in his career. He has an impressive 3.44 ERA and a .301 wOBA allowed in the second half in his career. He has gone 6 innings or more and allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts.
The under has done really well at Progressive Field with the wind blowing in. This is a park where the weather plays a larger role than most believe. A cool summer day with the wind blowing in is a big benefit to the under here.
The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Junis' last 5 starts in Cleveland. A combined 10-0 angle.
|08-22-19||Nationals v. Pirates OVER 8.5||7-1||Loss||-103||7 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have scored 74 runs in their last 7 games. Washington is at their best against lefties. The Nationals rank 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this season. In the last 30 days, Washington ranks second to only the Yankees in overall weighted on base average.
Steven Brault is a lefty and he's a mediocre lefty. He's pitched fairly well of late, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Brault walks a lot of batters and there should be plenty of traffic on the bases against him tonight.
Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals, but they won't let him pitch deep into the game as he comes off an injury. What does that mean? It means we see a lot of the Nationals bullpen. Washington's bullpen has been the worst in baseball this year, and they have a couple injuries that have them even more short handed now.
A total set this low with the Nationals bullpen in for quite a while and the Nationals offense as hot as they are, and I have to take the over.
Take the over here.
|08-21-19||Yankees v. A's -108||4-6||Win||100||20 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Oakland ML* Mike Fiers is a good fit for Oakland Coliseum. Fiers has a 2.89 ERA with a .273 wOBA at home. Fiers is certainly up against a very good offense here, but he has pitched well at home against the Red Sox and the Twins this season.
J.A. Happ goes against an Oakland team that can throw a lot of very good right handed batters against you. The A's rank 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Happ has allowed 23 homers against right handed batters this year, and righties have a wOBA of .347 against him.
Teams from the east who aren't accustomed to playing Oakland have historically done very poorly here. The Yankees are 7-15 in their last 22 games in Oakland. That's their worst record in any AL ballpark since 2013.
The A's are 16-4 in Fiers' last 20 home starts.
|08-21-19||Brewers v. Cardinals -105||5-3||Loss||-105||17 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Adam Wainwright has been a different pitcher at home this year. Wainwright has a tremendous 2.19 ERA and a .292 weighted on base average allowed at home this season.
Adrian Houser is coming off a very good outing, but he has been inconsistent this season. Houser has a 4.24 ERA with a .338 wOBA allowed on the road.
The Brewers bullpen isn't nearly as strong as it was last season. St. Louis clearly has the deeper bullpen. Milwaukee hasn't been too bad against weak teams on the road, but they haven't been able to beat good teams away from home. They are 1-8 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record.
The Cardinals are 17-4 in their last 21 vs. the NL Central. They are 47-20 in Wainwright's last 67 home starts. They are also 6-0 in their last 6 games against Milwaukee.
Take St. Louis.
|08-20-19||Phillies -109 v. Red Sox||3-2||Win||100||16 h 2 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* This is a primarily a fade of Brian Johnson. Johnson starts for the Red Sox here, and he isn't a good pitcher at all. He has a career worst swinging strike rate of 6.9% this year. He has allowed 7 runs in his last 8 innings pitched. He continues to have a very high walk rate and a low swinging strike rate. He is also prone to giving up the home run ball.
Aaron Nola started the season off slowly, but he has been very good of late. Nola has a stellar 2.09 ERA since June 23. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 11 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any of those starts.
The Red Sox have been playing better of late, but they have been beating up on bad teams. Boston is 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Phillies are an impressive 38-17 in Nola's last 55 starts.
|08-19-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5||3-5||Win||110||12 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* The Colorado Rockies start Chi Chi Gonzalez in this one. I usually try to find a way to fade Gonzalez, and it has worked more often than not. Gonzalez just isn't a good pitcher at all. Gonzalez has a 6.57 ERA and a 6.91 FIP this year. In Triple A, he has a 6.10 ERA and a 5.75 FIP. He has a very low 7.3% swinging strike rate, and he gives up a bunch of hard contact. According to Baseball Savant, 47.1% of batted balls off Gonzalez classified as hard hit so far this season.
Zac Gallen was a very highly touted prospect and he's been very good so far this year in the big leagues. Gallen has an impressive 12.6% swinging strike rate thus far. He has multiple plus pitches.
The Rockies win some games at home, but their road record of late is horrendous. In their last 19 road games, betting the other team at -1.5 has cashed 13 of those 19 games.
Arizona is only 4.5 games out of the NL Wild Card (I don't think they'll make it), which means they still have plenty to play for this season. The Rockies are out of the playoff chase.
Colorado's bullpen is among the worst in the majors, while the DBacks bullpen is league average or slightly better.
Take Arizona -1.5.
|08-18-19||Padres v. Phillies OVER 10||3-2||Loss||-101||9 h 57 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Citizens Bank Ballpark is one where the weather matters quite a it. Hot days with the wind blowing out have been very good for the over in the past. How good? With a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and wind blowing out at all the over is 55-38 (59%). When that wind is 7 mph or more the over is 37-18-1. A temperature of 90 degrees with winds out at 7 or 8 mph are in the forecast here.
Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi both have splits that show them getting worse in the second half of the season in their careers. Both of these teams are a lot better offensively against lefties than righties as well.
Lucchesi has a 1.16 WHIP in the first half in his career and a 1.40 WHIP in the second half. His starts on day games have been notably worst than night games as well.
Tom Woodring is a great over umpire behind the dish as well. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
Take the over.
|08-17-19||Cardinals -105 v. Reds||1-6||Loss||-105||13 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central race, but they need every win they can get right now. Cincinnati has fallen apart in the last few games. The Reds lost a key contest this past weekend against the Cubs when they were up late in that one and gave up a 3-0 lead in the late innings. They haven't come back from that. It doesn't help that the injury/suspensions problems are piling up.
Joey Votto and Jesse Winker are two very good left handed bats, and both of them have missed the last two days with back injuries. They are questionable for this one. Amir Garrett is serving his suspension now. The Reds bullpen is running on fumes right now, and they have been a complete mess of late.
In the Cardinals, you have what is a top five bullpen in baseball. The Reds rank 3rd worst in bullpen ERA in the past month, and their bullpen FIP is 6.04 during that time. This is a total mismatch in the bullpen.
Miles Mikolas has thrown better late in the year in the past. Anthony Desclafani is against him here, and he has some major home run issues. The heat makes the ball really fly at GABP this time of the year.
The Cardinals are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. the NL Central.
Take St. Louis.
|08-16-19||Brewers v. Nationals -1.5||1-2||Loss||-100||8 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin in this one. Corbin had a break out season last year with increasing the usage of his tremendous slider. He started the season a little slowly this year, but he has been great of late. Corbin has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.54 FIP since June 19. In 8 of his 10 starts since then, he has allowed 2 runs or less.
Corbin has been amazing at home this year. He has a 1.78 ERA at home and opponents have a ridiculously low .222 weighted on base average against him when he is at home.
The Brewers are 9th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They rank 21st in the majors in wOBA against lefties.
The Nationals have been playing good baseball for the last couple months. The Nationals have been particularly strong at home. Adrian Houser is far from a strong starter, and he doesn't pitch deep into the game normally. The Brewers middle relief has been very weak this year.
Since I don't want to lay a big price on the moneyline here, I'm going to back the Nationals on the run line.
Take Washington -1.5.
|08-15-19||White Sox +162 v. Angels||7-8||Loss||-100||20 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Andrew Heaney is working his way back from an injury and it is hard to say what we'll get from him. There is a lot of potential variance here and this is a big plus number price on the White Sox.
The Angels have been losing a bunch of games to poor teams on their home field of late. The Orioles, Tigers, and Pirates have all given them a lot of trouble. The Angels are banged up. Their defense has been really bad of late. The bullpen is a problem. Andrelton Simmons is clearly missed badly at shortstop.
The White Sox have a young team and they are improving right now. Reynaldo Lopez starts here, and he has always been considered a high upside guy, but he was terrible in the first half of the season. Lopez has looked like a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season though. Lopez has a stellar 2.13 ERA in six starts since the break. He has a FIP of 2.87 in those six starts.
The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the White Sox.
|08-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12.5||6-7||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Both lineups will square off against a lefty in this matchup.
Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Rockies rank 9th in wOBA against lefties.
The Rockies are dead last in the majors in wOBA on the road, and they are first in the majors in wOBA at home. Coors Field is still the ultimate hitters ballpark. Arizona has scored 8 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series.
The DBacks bullpen has been middle of the road in the past month, but the Rockies have the second worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the past 30 days.
Robbie Ray has been absolutely torched by this Rockies offense. While his ERA looks decent at Coors, his WHIP is a very high 1.761 here. Ray has allowed an awful .492 wOBA against this Rockies lineup overall in his career. Kyle Freeland has been a mess all year, and the DBacks have given him major trouble in the past. Arizona has an impressive .378 wOBA against him.
With a temperature in the low 90's for a day game at Coors, I expect a lot of runs.
Take the over.
|08-13-19||Mariners v. Tigers OVER 9||11-6||Win||100||18 h 50 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd was tremendous earlier this year. Boyd had a .267 weighted on base average allowed through the first two months of the year. He has gradually fallen off since that time. Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 10 games. He has a 5.08 ERA and a .324 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season thus far. In his last game, he walked 3 batters and only struck out one.
Yusei Kikuchi has been disappointing this year. He has a 5.34 ERA and 5.88 FIP. Kikuchi has a terrible 6.93 ERA and a .416 wOBA in the second half of the season thus far.
The Mariners and Tigers are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching.
These two bullpens rank 28th and 29th in the majors in FIP on the season.
The wind is blowing out at Comerica, and this is a park with very strong angles to the over with the wind blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 degrees or warmer and a wind blowing out at 10 mph or more (11 mph out is the forecast here) the over is a whopping 44-19 in the last 63 situations.
Take the over.
|08-12-19||Rays v. Padres UNDER 8.5||10-4||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi gets the ball here for San Diego. Lucchesi has been tremendous at home this year. He has a 2.71 ERA at home and has allowed a weighted on base average of only .250 at Petco Park.
Diego Castillo serves as the opener for the Rays here. Austin Pruitt should be next in line, but Kevin Cash has made it clear that he may have to use the team's bullpen depth more in this series because of the pitcher batting. The Padres are 21st in wOBA against right handed pitching.
Both of these teams rank in the top six in bullpen SIERA and xFIP in the last 30 days, so they enter in good form.
This is still clearly a very good pitcher's park, and interleague games in NL stadiums have trended toward the under in the past several years.
Take the under.
|08-11-19||Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Over* These two bullpens have been absolutely terrible of late. They took turns getting shelled in Saturday night's game. The Braves ended up blowing a big lead and the Marlins picked up the comeback win.
For the year, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the advanced metrics. In the past 30 days, both of these teams rank in the bottom five. The Marlins are 26th in bullpen FIP in that time and the Braves are 29th.
Mike Foltynewicz has potential, but he hasn't been good so far this year. His last start looks decent on paper giving up 3 runs in 5 and 1/3 in Minnesota, but he stranded tons of runners and had good batted ball luck in that one.
Hector Noesi makes the start for the Marlins here. Noesi has made one start since the end of the 2015 season in the majors. That start didn't go well at all. The Mets scored 5 runs on him in 5 innings pitched. Noesi has never been a good starter, and he has less velocity now and he's up against a great lineup.
The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. The Marlins offense has shown signs of life in the past couple weeks too.
The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5. The over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 24-0 angle.
Take the over.
|08-10-19||Rockies v. Padres -1.5||5-8||Win||105||19 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Padres -1.5* The Colorado Rockies have been terrible in recent weeks. The Rockies have the single worst weighted on base average on the road of any team in the majors. Their bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors in the past 30 days, and it isn't even close (7.16 ERA).
Chi Chi Gonzalez starts for the Rockies here, and he is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez had a 6.10 ERA and a 5.76 FIP in Triple A this year. In the majors, he has a 5.95 ERA and a 7.18 FIP this season. In Gonzalez's last 8 starts in the majors, he has more walks than strikeouts. That gets you into big trouble more often than not.
Chris Paddack is coming off a rare poor start, but he has been very good this year. Paddack has a great track record at home as well. Paddack has a ridiculously good 0.739 WHIP at home.
The Padres bullpen ranks first in the majors in SIERA for the season and first in FIP in the last 30 days. San Diego has a huge bullpen advantage.
In the Rockies last 17 road games- if you took their opponent -1.5 you would have went 12-5. They face a very good young pitcher here and we are getting a plus money price on the run line.
Take San Diego -1.5.
|08-10-19||Pirates v. Cardinals -138||1-3||Win||100||17 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The Cardinals are 13-3 in Adam Wainwright's last 16 home starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wainwright's splits at home are tremendous this year. He has a 2.26 ERA at home and his wOBA allowed is only .292.
Joe Musgrove has had 5 of his last 6 starts with a FIP of 5.50 or higher. He is dealing with a minor back injury and was torched in his last start. The Cardinals have hit him really well this year in general as well.
The Pirates have absolutely nothing to play for. They are 5-21 in their last 26 games. The Cardinals are right in the thick of the playoff race, and this series means a lot to them. This is their chance to make up some ground.
The Pirates are 0-5 in Musgrove's last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals.
Take the Cardinals.
|08-09-19||Nationals v. Mets UNDER 8||6-7||Loss||-110||17 h 38 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Nationals and Mets play a really important series in New York this weekend. The Nationals started the season slowly, but they have been great since those early struggles. The Mets are on a ridiculous run that has them just barely on the outside looking in when it comes to the NL Wild Card race.
Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year as long as he isn't up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Strasburg has been torched by Arizona twice. Before that last poor start, Strasburg had allowed only 4 runs in his last 5 starts combined. For the season, his numbers are the best of his career. Strasburg has been great at Citi Field in his career too. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 0.996 WHIP in 12 starts at Citi Field.
Marcus Stroman didn't really expect to be in a playoff race when he was traded to the Mets, but here he is. Stroman has high quality stuff and he has induced a lot more soft contact this year than in previous seasons.
The fact that both teams had the day off yesterday helps. The bullpens should have their best arms ready to go.
The under is 13-3 in the Nationals last 16 road games. The under is 19-9-1 in Strasburg's last 29 road starts.
Take the under.
|08-07-19||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||1-2||Win||105||12 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. They rank 26th in the last 30 days. The Cardinals lineup hasn't been good most of the year. They have had some short stretches where they look great, but most of the time they have been a disappointment.
On the other hand, the Cardinals pitching staff has been good. They rank 9th in overall team ERA. The bullpen has been a top five bullpen in the majors for much of this season.
The Dodgers rank first in the majors in team ERA. The Dodgers bullpen is a top ten bullpen in the majors, and Clayton Kershaw pitching deep into the game last night was really helpful for this unit.
Jack Flaherty was shaky early on this year, but he has been pitching great of late. Flaherty has a FIP of 2.88 or lower in four straight starts. He has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last five starts.
Dustin May is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. May has excellent stuff and his upside is great.
Doug Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years.
The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in Flaherty's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two in Los Angeles. A combined 26-0 angle.
|08-06-19||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||1-3||Win||100||20 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw has been great at home throughout his career. Kershaw has a great 2.35 ERA so far this year at home. Kershaw has been good at inducing soft contact. Kershaw has been in good form of late as well. He has allowed only 7 runs in his last 5 starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those starts.
Miles Mikolas has allowed only 7 runs in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Mikolas was shaky at the beginning of the season, but he has really improved in the last couple months.
Both the Dodgers and Cardinals have a top 10 bullpen in FIP for the course of the season and in the last 30 days as well.
The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 6-0-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. A combined 16-0 angle.
Bill Miller is a proven strike caller and he's behind the dish here.
Take the under.
|08-06-19||White Sox +105 v. Tigers||5-3||Win||105||12 h 32 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Detroit Tigers are now 9-47 in their last 56 games vs. a right handed starter. Detroit is 1-10 in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record. The Tigers are the worst team in baseball. They traded away Castellanos and Greene at the deadline, and those were two of their better players. This team is in really bad shape.
Derek Norris starts for the Tigers here. The White Sox are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The White Sox are healthier than they were a couple weeks ago. The Tigers are 1-11 in Norris' last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Dylan Cease hasn't been great so far this year, but he has a really high upside. Cease has great stuff and he should turn into a good pitcher. He faces the single worst lineup in baseball here.
I have to fade the Tigers at plus money here.
Take the White Sox.
|08-05-19||White Sox -118 v. Tigers||7-4||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Detroit Tigers are the worst team in baseball. Detroit is 10-43 in their last 53 games. The Tigers are 9-46 in their last 55 games against a right handed pitcher.
In this one, they'll be against a good right handed pitcher. Lucas Giolito has had a really good season. Giolito had a bit of a blip for a while, but he has looked better again of late. Giolito has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his last 16 starts this season. He has a FIP of 2.92 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts. The one poor start was against the Twins. He's not up against anything like the Twins offense today.
The Tigers traded away their best bullpen arm in Shane Greene. While the White Sox bullpen isn't good, it is slightly better than the Tigers.
Spencer Turnbull has potential for the Tigers, but he has had multiple injuries and his most recent setback was a back injury. This is his first game off the injured list.
The White Sox are 7-3 in Giolito's last 10 road starts. A good price here on the road team.
Take the White Sox.
|08-04-19||Angels v. Indians -1.5||2-6||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Indians -1.5* The Cleveland Indians are playing excellent baseball right now. Cleveland ranks 5th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. After a slow start to the year, their offense has had it going of late.
The Indians bullpen ranks first in the majors in FIP. This Tribe bullpen has been far deeper and much better than anyone thought they would be this season.
Shane Bieber starts for Cleveland here. Bieber has a 14.2% swinging strike rate, and he has a 3.40 ERA and a 3.18 FIP on the season. He has been tremendous.
Jaime Barria starts for the Angels. Barria has given up a .349 wOBA in his career on the road. Barria started 9 games in Triple A this year and had a 8.73 ERA. He has a 6.28 ERA in the majors. Barria hasn't proven good enough to get professional hitters out.
The Indians are 79-37 in their last 116 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Angels are 17-41 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Angels are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams.
Take Cleveland -1.5.
|08-03-19||Cardinals v. A's -132||3-8||Win||100||19 h 51 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Oakland* The Oakland Athletics have a good home field advantage. They have been able to really take advantage of teams who don't come to Oakland very often. St. Louis is definitely one of those teams.
How has Oakland at home done against non-divisional opponents since 2005? When they are either an underdog or a favorite of -140 or lower, they are 274-221 with an ROI of 10.0%. That's impressive in a big sample size. It gets a lot more impressive when you take their record against teams with a win percentage of higher than 50% on the year. Oakland is 186-121 in these spots with a whopping ROI of 22.4%.
St. Louis is coming off a big series against the Cubs. This is a difficult spot for them in Oakland. The A's have Mike Fiers on the mound here. Fiers has drastic splits on the year. At home, Fiers has a 2.61 ERA and an impressive .263 wOBA allowed.
Dakota Hudson is pitching for the Cardinals, and Hudson has been in poor form of late. Hudson has a FIP of 5.11 or higher in six straight starts. He has been struggling with his control. The A's are top ten in the majors in walk rate against right handed pitching.
The A's are 11-4 in their last 15 interleague home games. They are 8-2 in Fiers' last 10 starts.
|08-03-19||Nationals -129 v. Diamondbacks||7-18||Loss||-129||7 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals are a whopping 40-11 in Stephen Strasburg's last 51 road starts. After a slow start to the season, the Nationals have played some really good baseball. Washington's bullpen is still questionable, but they haven't been nearly as bad in the past month as they were early in the season. Strasburg has been absolutely dominant.
How good has Strasburg been? He has a 3.26 ERA and a 2.93 FIP suggesting he has been at least somewhat unlucky. Strasburg has been at his absolute best of late. He has a FIP of 1.72 or lower in five straight starts. He has a long history of being much better in the second half of the season.
Robbie Ray has allowed 3 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts and 9 of his last 12. He gives up too many home runs and allows too many baserunners, and that usually makes it hard for him to completely shut down a team.
Strasburg has allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and in that other start he allowed 3 runs.
The Nationals rank as a top five offense in baseball against lefties. The DBacks rank in the bottom ten against righties.
The DBacks are 0-6 in Ray's last 6 starts vs. Washington.
|08-02-19||Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 10||3-0||Loss||-100||3 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Arizona ranks 11th in that statistic. Both teams are hitting the ball well.
|08-02-19||Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10||2-4||Loss||-105||8 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 12 runs or higher, so this total isn't in all that high of a territory for the Yankees. New York is expected to get back DJ Lemahieu tonight and he is a big key for this offense.
The Boston Red Sox are 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games. None of those games have finished with less than 11 runs.
Since the All Star Break, Boston is ranked first in weighted on base average as a team. The Yankees are rated second in wOBA as a team.
Eduardo Rodriguez had an ERA of 6.14 at Yankee Stadium last season. James Paxton has been in terrible form of late. Paxton has a FIP of 6.22 or higher in three straight starts.
The over is 12-1 in the Yankees last 13 games. The over is 12-1 in Rodriguez's last 13 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Red Sox last 7 overall. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 38-2 combined angle.
Take the over.
|08-01-19||Rays +119 v. Red Sox||9-4||Win||119||16 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Tampa Bay Rays start Brendan McKay here. McKay is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He had a 1.30 ERA in AA this year and a superb 0.93 ERA in AAA. McKay has good control and he has several strikeout pitches. His upside is very high. While the Red Sox are elite against right handed pitching, they are only mediocre against lefties.
Andrew Cashner isn't very good. Cashner has a 4.18 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.33. He has been very fortunate so far this year. This is a hitters park with these weather conditions, and Cashner doesn't have swing and miss stuff.
The Rays have the deeper bullpen as well.
I'll take the plus money price on this one.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-30-19||Astros v. Indians UNDER 8.5||2-0||Win||105||17 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber is quite the pitching matchup. These are two of the top five bullpens in the majors as well. While it has been hot in Ohio in recent weeks, the temperature has cooled quite a bit compared to a couple weeks ago. The weather calls for a temperature in the upper 70's here with a very slight breeze blowing in from center field.
Verlander has easily the highest swinging strike rate of his career at 15.6%, so he is fooling a lot of hitters. Verlander has looked sharp since the break. He has only allowed 4 earned runs in three starts since the break. He has a whopping 30 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched since the break.
Bieber clearly isn't on the same level as Verlander overall, but he is having a great season. Bieber has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.18 FIP. He has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 14.4%. How good has Bieber been lately? In his last eight starts, he has a FIP of 1.81 or lower in five of them.
The under is 15-5-1 in Bieber's last 21 starts. The under is 13-6-1 in Verlander's last 20 starts. Expect a lot of swings and misses in Cleveland on Tuesday night.
Take the under.
|07-30-19||Diamondbacks v. Yankees OVER 11.5||4-2||Loss||-110||17 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have played nine straight games that have gone over the total. There hasn't been less than 12 runs in any of those games. The Yankees have gotten healthier on offense, and this is a scary good lineup. The Yankees haven't been getting good starting pitching though, and their bullpen has been a bit shaky in the last week as well.
J.A. Happ is nearly 37 years old. Happ isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. Notably, Happ has been far worse when pitching at Yankee Stadium. At home, Happ has allowed a .369 weighted on base average. On the road, his WOBA allowed is only .304. The DBacks aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they are a top five offense against lefties.
Taylor Clarke pitched pretty well last time out against the Orioles. He won't get to face a weak lineup again here. Clarke has some really ugly numbers so far this season. He has allowed a .393 wOBA overall. Opposing hitters have barreled the ball on 12.9% of batted balls against him, which is one of the highest marks you will ever see. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is giving up 2.26 home runs per nine innings. This is a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium in warm weather against this lineup.
The over is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 5-0 in Clarke's last 5 road starts.
Take the over.
|07-29-19||Dodgers -123 v. Rockies||1-9||Loss||-123||9 h 3 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Kenta Maeda here. Maeda had a really bad start to the season, but since May he has been very solid. Maeda has a 3.34 ERA and a 3.96 FIP since May 10.
Maeda has had far more success at Coors Field than the average pitcher. Maeda owns an impressive 3.12 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP in 40 and 1/3 innings pitched at Coors Field. I don't know that he can keep that rate of success going, but he is above average at Coors.
Jon Gray has had a minor calf injury of late, and his results have shown he isn't 100 percent. Gray has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.23 FIP on the season. In his last four starts only, Gray has a 5.06 ERA and a 5.48 FIP. What about against this Dodgers lineup in his career? The Dodgers have crushed him in the past. The Dodgers have a whopping .440 wOBA against Gray. Cody Bellinger has 9 hits in 14 at bats against Gray.
The Dodgers have a bullpen that is shaky at times, but they are better than the Rockies bullpen.
The Dodgers are 61-30 in their last 91. The Rockies are 7-19 in their last 26.
Take the Dodgers.
|07-28-19||Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 10||11-4||Loss||-107||11 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Cubs and Brewers are rivals and they have a history of playing a lot of low scoring games against one another. The under is 30-8 in their last 38 games against each other.
Zach Davies is good at inducing soft contact. Davies has drastic 1st and 2nd half splits (better in the second half) in his career. He also has a 1.20 WHIP in day games and a 1.394 WHIP in night games.
Jose Quintana has held the Brewers to a .278 OBP in his career.The Brewers have been inconsistent on offense this year.
Gary Cedarstrom is a clear positive for the under here with his strikes called % and strikeout/walk percentages.
The under is 5-0 in the Cubs last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 8-0-1 in Davies' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Davies' last 8 games against the Cubs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Cubs at home. A 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-28-19||Pirates v. Mets -117||7-8||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Mets ML* I didn't necessarily expect to take the Mets here, but this price is too short.
Jason Vargas has been excellent since his first three starts of the year. Vargas also has amazing numbers at home. Vargas induces soft contact, and Citi Field is definitely a pitcher's park. Vargas has a 2.78 ERA and has allowed only a .277 weighted on base average at home this year.
The Pirates rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Pittsburgh's offense has been ice cold in recent games, and there is no reason to expect them to breakout in this one.
Chris Archer has been disappointing all year. Archer has allowed 3 runs or more in 12 of his last 15 starts. He gives up a lot of hard contact and has poor control.
The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The Mets are 7-3 in Vargas' last 10 home starts.
Take New York.
|07-27-19||Rangers v. A's OVER 9.5||4-5||Loss||-100||19 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's have lost three straight games. They haven't hit a home run in three straight contests. Oakland's offense will have a favorable matchup here as they are up against Adrian Sampson.
Sampson has allowed 18 runs in his last 10 innings as a starter. Sampson is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings this season. A guy like Sampson who doesn't miss bats has to induce weak contact to be successful in the long run. He is giving up all sorts of hard contact right now. Sampson's exit velocity allowed is in the bottom five percent in the majors.
Homer Bailey is coming off one of those awful starts that we saw with regularity from him last season and the year before. Bailey has been a bit better this year, but his lack of control lately is concerning. Bailey gives up a lot more hard contact than an average pitcher as well.
The Rangers bullpen has been overworked of late, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the past 30 days. The A's bullpen is mediocre as well.
The over is 7-1 in Sampson's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the over.
|07-26-19||Pirates +162 v. Mets||3-6||Loss||-100||17 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* This is a price grab. The New York Mets aren't a good team. New York enters this game at 47-55 and they are a -170 or higher favorite many places. When you see that kind of number, you would have to assume that Jacob Degrom is pitching. He isn't pitching here.
The Pirates aren't a good team either, but they aren't terrible. This isn't a bottom feeder team like the Detroit Tigers or Baltimore Orioles. The Pirates have lost a lot of close games of late.
Zack Wheeler is good, but he is inconsistent. The Mets bullpen is a major weakness. The Pirates have a big advantage there. We've seen the Mets blow a lot of leads this season.
Pittsburgh starts Dario Agrazal. He isn't a great pitcher, but he induces soft contact and has been able to pitch very well in his first few starts in the majors.
The Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter.
Take the big price on Pittsburgh here.
|07-26-19||Rays -128 v. Blue Jays||3-1||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Toronto Blue Jays start Jacob Waguespack here. While he hasn't been that bad thus far in the majors, his minor league numbers suggest he has little upside. His career WHIP in the minors was an ugly 1.40. Waguespack has questionable control and doesn't have overpowering stuff. Deception is the best tool he has, but the Rays will see him for a second time here.
Diego Castillo is comfortable in the opener role, and Ryan Yarbrough is expected to be the bulk pitcher in this game for Tampa Bay. Yarbrough has a great ability to induce weak contact. He ranks in the top 2% in the majors in exit velocity allowed according to Baseball Savant. Yarbrough has a 3.93 ERA, but his FIP is an impressive 3.35.
Tampa Bay's bullpen got a rest yesterday which is big since they have been used heavily. The Rays have the better bullpen here.
Tampa Bay's offense has been weak against lefties, but they rank 12th in the majors in wOBA against righties.
The Blue Jays are 12-31 in their last 43 against a team with a winning record.
Take Tampa Bay.
|07-24-19||Orioles v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||2-5||Loss||-107||12 h 20 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. John Means has had a great season, but this is a tough test for him. Means has a .258 wOBA allowed at home and a .328 wOBA allowed on the road. This is the highest ranked offense against lefties that he has faced this year so far.
Means is a quality pitcher, but he is clearly due for some regression. Even with soft contact allowed, we can't expect Means to have a 2.95 ERA and a 4.36 FIP and 5.35 xFIP forever. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in baseball.
Taylor Clarke has been terrible this year. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA in Triple A this year. It hasn't gone well in the majors either. Clarke has a 6.50 ERA and a 6.46 FIP in the majors this season. He is giving up a ton of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate of only 8.8%. He doesn't have good enough secondary pitches.
Nick Lentz is the home plate umpire here. He has a strikeout/walk ratio of only 1.97 this year. Lentz is leaning heavily toward the over right now. He has been squeezing pitchers consistently this season.
The over is 5-0 in Means' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the DBacks last 4 games.
Take the over.
|07-23-19||Yankees -115 v. Twins||14-12||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Yankees ML* The New York Yankees are starting to get healthy, and this team is loaded with talent. The Minnesota Twins have come back to the pack some after a nice start to the season.
While I do think the Twins are a solid team, they aren't on the same level as the Yankees.
Domingo German doesn't get enough credit for how good of a job he has done as starting pitcher. German has a swinging strike percentage of 14.2%, so he has some nasty stuff. His SIERA sits at a solid 3.87.
Kyle Gibson is a mediocre pitcher. He is capable of throwing a gem, but he is inconsistent. The Yankees lineup has been crushing the baseball of late, and this is a tough test for him. The Yankees lineup has a great .369 weighted on base average against Gibson in the past.
The Yankees have a big bullpen edge here as well. The Yankees are 18-6 in German's last 24 starts. They are 56-24 in their last 80 games overall.
Take New York.
|07-23-19||Phillies -136 v. Tigers||3-2||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* The Philadelphia Phillies are laying a shorter price than I expected here. Matt Boyd has had a nice season for the Detroit Tigers. He was spectacular earlier this year. He has slowly regressed in recent outings.
Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in six straight starts. The Tigers offense ranks in the bottom 3 of the majors in OBP. They are especially bad against right handed pitching. I wouldn't expect him to get a lot of support here.
Aaron Nola had several great starts before his last outing. He is coming off a poor outing against the Dodgers, but the Tigers are far from the Dodgers. This is a very weak lineup. I think Nola has a good chance to pitch well here.
I won't complicate this handicap. The Tigers are 10-42 in their last 52 games vs. a right handed starter. They are 15-43 in their last 58 home games. They are 1-7 in Boyd's last 8 starts.
|07-23-19||Padres v. Mets UNDER 8.5||2-5||Win||100||17 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Padres take on the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday night. A temperature in the mid 70's and a wind blowing in from center field is a positive for the under here.
Jason Vargas has been good since a really bad first 3 starts of the year. Vargas has been particularly good at home. He has allowed hitters only a .222 average and a .289 weighted on base average at home. Vargas excels at allowing soft contact, and Citi Field is a great pitchers park.
Chris Paddack is a star youngster who is throwing it really well right now. Paddack combines the ability to make hitters swing and miss and an elite ability to induce soft contact. Paddack has allowed a grand total of 6 hits and only 2 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. He is walking only 1.9 batters per nine innings.
The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 10 of their last 14 games.
The under is 12-0-1 in Vargas' last 13 home starts. The under is 7-0 in the Padres last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. A combined 30-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-21-19||A's v. Twins UNDER 10.5||6-7||Loss||-100||2 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has been a big surprise this year. Michael Pineda is pitching as well as anyone for the Twins right now. Pineda has a whopping eight straight games with a FIP of 3.83 or lower. He has a FIP of lower than 3 in seven of those eight starts. He has been consistently very good.
Daniel Mengden doesn't miss many bats, but he does induce soft contact, and he has a very good defense behind him. The Twins offense has cooled off quite a bit of late.
Both bullpens are better than average. In the past 30 days, both of these bullpens rank in the top ten in baseball.
Additon is the umpire here, and he is a clear under umpire with his strikeout percentage and low walk percentage.
The weather here isn't nearly as extreme as it has been in recent days. A gametime temperature of 79 degrees and wind blowing sideways doesn't help the offenses.
The under is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 16-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-21-19||Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 12.5||0-5||Loss||-105||12 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Boston is also first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Red Sox put up 17 runs yesterday in a win over Baltimore.
Boston will go up against Asher Wojciechowski who starts for the Orioles here. Nearly 50% of batted balls off him this year have been classified as hard hit. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings. He has been absolutely crushed in his day game appearances in his career, and I don't like his chances of slowing down Boston here.
Andrew Cashner starts for the Red Sox here against his old team. Cashner is allowing the most hard contact of his career this season. He doesn't get many swings and misses either.
The hot weather over the eastern part of the United States right now is extreme. A temperature of 98 degrees with winds blowing out at about 7 mph are expected for this one.
In 5 of the last 8 Red Sox games, one of the teams in the game has gotten to double digits. You couldn't get more favorable conditions for hitting than this weather.
The Orioles and Red Sox bullpens are both struggling of late, and they have been overused.
The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 between these two teams.
Take the over.
|07-20-19||Mets v. Giants -140||11-4||Loss||-140||3 h 25 m||Show|
*Note- this is the same play as last night. The Sportscapping system deleted this play in error, so I am simply re-posting the play*
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* The New York Mets can find a lot of different ways to lose games. Jacob Degrom was terrific again yesterday, but they lost thanks to an error in the 10th inning. The Mets have some good players, but as a team they just aren't very good. The bullpen is a major problem, and injuries have slowed the team down.
Walker Lockett gets the start here for the Mets, and Lockett isn't good at all. Lockett has a 10.32 ERA in the majors, and all of his minor league numbers suggest he isn't good either. He's a guy who can't miss enough bats, and he gives up a lot of hard contact. His WHIP in the majors is a whopping 1.99.
|07-19-19||Mets v. Giants +160||0-1||Win||160||9 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Giants ML* This isn't a fade of Jacob Degrom in any way. It is a fade of the Mets laying this kind of a price against a team playing really good baseball. The Mets bullpen is a bottom 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors. The Giants bullpen has easily the best advanced metrics in the past month. Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and crew have been great for the Giants all year.
We have all seen the Mets blow lead after lead late in the game. The Giants have kept fighting many times lately when they are down early in the game.
Tyler Beede has improved of late, and the Mets are better against lefties than righties. Beede has been using his slider more of late, and it has worked out well.
The Giants have won 14 of their last 17 games. The Mets are just 2-7 in Degrom's last 9 road starts.
Take San Francisco at this price.
|07-19-19||Rockies v. Yankees -1.5||2-8||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The Yankees have been hitting the ball extremely well lately. This offense is starting to get healthy, and they are scary good.
Kyle Freeland has been having trouble all year. Freeland going up against this Yankees lineup could get very ugly. The Rockies bullpen is bottom five in the majors too.
J.A. Happ has pitched well in 3 of his last 4 four games. The Rockies rank dead last by a wide margin in weighted on base average on the road this year. The Yankees have a top five bullpen.
Take New York -1.5 here.
|07-19-19||Phillies v. Pirates OVER 10.5||6-1||Loss||-105||8 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Pirates are 23-5-2 to the over in their last 30 home games. This offense has been on fire of late, and the pitching staff has been worse than expected.
Jordan Lyles has been the worst of the starting pitchers on this team of late. Lyles appears to still be injured. He is struggling badly with his control. Lyles is also giving up a lot of very hard hit balls in play.
Jake Arrieta is pitching injured. He isn't getting many swinging strikes at all, and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. The Phillies bullpen has the worst FIP in the majors in the last 30 days.
A temperature of 91 degrees and wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph helps too.
Take the over.
|07-18-19||Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5||6-7||Loss||-115||9 h 27 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Phillies game on Wednesday night ended around 1:45 am after a long rain delay turned it into a very long night for both teams. This is a really quick turnaround.
There is no set rule that quick turnaround games are going to be low scoring by any means, but I lean under in these circumstances. Why? Many coaches will sit out key players from their lineups. Dave Roberts regularly does this on get away day games to start with, so I would expect one or two Dodgers regulars to be out of the lineup here. A get away afternoon game on a Thursday is an under lean, and in this case with the short turnaround I believe it makes the situation stronger.
Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in all of baseball. He is a strike caller who always has one of the highest called strike percentages and strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the majors.
Aaron Nola has allowed only in 35 and 2/3 innings pitched in his last five starts. Nola is a really streaky pitcher, and when he is on he can be lights out. The Dodgers lineup is excellent, but Nola has tremendous stuff. Nola has been working deep into the game which is helpful since we'd like to limit how much of the Phillies bullpen we see here.
Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher who threw the ball really well in his last start.
The under is 6-1-1 in Stripling's last 8 starts.
Take the under.
|07-17-19||Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 10.5||7-2||Loss||-115||5 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers have the deepest lineup in the National League. The Dodgers are on fire of late. They have scored 42 runs in their last four games. This team has a lot of power, and they are especially good against right handed pitching.
The Phillies offense has been streaky, but they have a lot of potential. They are up against Kenta Maeda here. Maeda has been amazing at home this year, but he has struggled in a big way on the road. Maeda has a 2.26 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed at home. Maeda has an ugly 5.44 ERA and a .323 wOBA allowed on the road.
Nick Pivetta comes into this one in really bad form. He has had a FIP of 6.92 or higher in four of his last five starts. You don't want to go into a matchup with the Dodgers with those kind of recent statistics.
The Phillies bullpen has the single worst FIP of any bullpen in the majors in the last 30 days. The Dodgers middle relief can sometimes be an issue.
With a hot temperature and winds blowing out, I think there will be a lot of runs scored here.
Take the over.
|07-16-19||Reds v. Cubs OVER 10||3-4||Loss||-114||8 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. He has a major home run problem. DeSclafani is giving up nearly 2 home runs every nine innings. Wrigley Field is a good hitters ballpark with the warm weather we are currently seeing in the midwest. The Cubs have plenty of power, and they are very patient. Chicago is likely to have traffic on the bases here, so if they get a blast or two it could be big for the total in this one.
Alec Mills had a 4.73 ERA and a 5.32 FIP in Triple A this year. Mills also gives up a lot of home runs and hard contact. He doesn't have any pitches that are all that impressive, and I think he is a guy who will struggle to stay in the big leagues.
The Reds offense has been much better in recent weeks. With Scooter Gennett healthy again and Yasiel Puig smashing the baseball, this offense has a much higher upside than they have shown for much of the season.
Manny Gonzalez is a good over umpire with a low strikeout/walk ratio, so that is helpful for the over.
Take the over here.
|07-15-19||Braves -101 v. Brewers||4-2||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* Two teams headed in different directions right now. The Braves are 39-17 in their last 56 games. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5, and they are only a couple games above .500 now.
Atlanta has more depth in the lineup than any other team in the National League outside of the Dodgers. The Braves rank 8th in weighted on base average in the last 30 days.
Milwaukee ranks only 22nd in wOBA in the last 30 days. Several guys in this lineup have been ice cold of late.
The Brewers bullpen depth isn't good enough right now. Injuries have really weakened this unit. Josh Hader is great, but the rest of the bullpen is subpar. Atlanta's bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the last 30 days, and their numbers are significantly better than the Brewers bullpen.
Max Fried has been the victim of bad luck in recent starts. Opponents have had a batting average on balls in play of .500 or higher in his last two starts. Fried has had a FIP of 3.04 or lower in three of his last four starts.
Adrian Houser isn't really a starter and the long relief for Milwaukee is a major weakness.
At this price, I'll take the better team with the better offense and pitcher.
|07-14-19||Nationals +102 v. Phillies||3-4||Loss||-100||12 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals have played some great baseball in the past few weeks after a brutal start to the season. Everyone knows by now that Washington's bullpen has let them down in a ton of games so far this year. They have improved numbers of late, and the Phillies bullpen has actually been worse in the last month than the Nats pen.
Washington is a whopping 25-9 in their last 34 contests. The Nationals offense is good, and their starting rotation is a good one as well. Anibal Sanchez isn't spectacular, but he is very good at inducing soft contact with his offspeed pitches. Sanchez ranked in the top 1% in exit velocity allowed last year. He is in the top 5% in that same category this year.
Jake Arrieta is dealing with bone spurs in his right elbow. Arrieta's statistics are worse across the board this year, and it doesn't come as any surprise that he isn't healthy. He'll pitch through this though, and he is in particularly bad form of late.
The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right handed pitcher. Washington is 16-5 in their last 21 vs. the NL East. Philadelphia is 5-13 in their last 18 vs. a right handed starter.
|07-13-19||Reds v. Rockies OVER 14||17-9||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Cincinnati vs. Colorado Over* The Reds and rockies clash on Saturday night. This Over is a nice play for us.We get two starting pitchers who don't have overpowering stuff, which should lead them to a lot of struggles inside a hitters ballpark. The Rockies send out Kyle Freeland, who has been a mess as of late. Freeland owns an ERA of over 7 and has given up 15 runs over just his last 3 starts. Freeland owns a 9.31 ERA inside Coors Field this season. As for the Reds, Tanner Roark will get the ball. Reds pitching has struggled as a whole against the NL West. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings in such cases.
All signs point to the Over here.
Grab the Over on Saturday. Bet Over.
|07-07-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9||3-5||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies rank last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Colorado is putting up video game numbers on offense at home, but they are struggling a lot away from Coors Field.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been elite against lefties, but they have been average to slightly below average against right handed pitching.
German Marquez has a great track record on the road. Marquez has a 0.876 WHIP on the road this year.
Alex Young has good swing and miss stuff and the Rockies have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.
Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors. He is a definite positive for the under.
Take the under here.
|07-06-19||Rockies -101 v. Diamondbacks||2-4||Loss||-101||19 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on Rockies ML* The Colorado Rockies have Jon Gray starting here. Gray has loads of potential, and he has pitched better so far this year. Gray has a FIP of 2.87 or lower in three straight starts. He has thrown the ball really well against Arizona so far this year. Without David Peralta, the DBacks are missing a key piece in the middle of the order.
Arizona is elite against lefties, but their weighted on base average is only 19th in the majors against right handed pitching.
Colorado excels against lefties, and this lineup has blasted Robbie Ray in the past. Ray struggles at Chase Field, and the Rockies should get scoring chances often again here. The Rockies have a whopping .445 weighted on base average against Ray in a big sample size of 186 at bats.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The DBacks are 0-5 in Ray's last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The Rockies are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts overall.
|07-06-19||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||3-1||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* Kenta Maeda is an underrated starter. Maeda has been lights out at home this year. Maeda has allowed a .167 batting average at home, and opponents have an on base percentage of just .226 against him at Dodger Stadium.
The Padres rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They have done some damage against lefties, but they aren't all that good against right handers.
Maeda's average exit velocity allowed is just 84.8 mph this year, which is superb. Maeda is clearly good at inducing soft contact.
Chris Paddack is a good young pitcher who doesn't walk many batters. Paddack has several plus pitches, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2%.
The Padres rank first in the majors in bullpen SIERA this year, and the Dodgers are 10th. In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 3rd and the Padres rank 6th. These are two solid bullpens.
The under is 17-5 in Maeda's last 22 home starts.
Adam Hamari is behind the plate here, and he is definitely a strike caller.
Take the under.
|07-06-19||Orioles +135 v. Blue Jays||8-1||Win||135||12 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Orioles ML* Of course I know the Orioles are a terrible team. This isn't a play on Baltimore as it is a fade of Toronto. Clayton Richard is pitching and the Blue Jays are -145.
Clayton Richard has allowed an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph this year, when is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors. He has allowed 52.8% of batted balls to be hard hit compared to Baseball Savant. That's a brutal percentage. Richard isn't any good, and the Orioles lineup is better against lefties than righties.
Andrew Cashner has been a bit better this year. Cashner has allowed only a .184 batting average against this Toronto lineup in his career as well. Cashner isn't good, but he is better than Richard.
The Blue Jays are 19-42 in their last 61 games. Richard is one of the worst starters in the majors. In a game I see as a 50/50 type game, I'll take the underdog.
|07-05-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5||4-1||Loss||-104||7 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total. The Baltimore Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total.
Toronto ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Baltimore ranks sixth in the last 14 days.
Dylan Bundy and Aaron Sanchez have been disappointing this year. Bundy is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Sanchez is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. Sanchez is allowing the hardest contact of his career so far.
The Orioles bullpen ranks dead last in FIP for the season. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in that same statistic.
Rogers Centre pretty easily ranks first in park factor for home runs, meaning it has been highly conducive to home runs. With two bad SP's and bad bullpens, I like this to be high scoring.
Take the over.
|07-04-19||Twins -128 v. A's||2-7||Loss||-128||13 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios has been able to improve a lot in his last couple years in the majors. He has a really high upside. Berrios still isn't as good on the road as he is at home, but he has improved a lot on the road compared to a couple years ago.
Berrios has a 2.89 ERA on the year. He is only allowing 31.2% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Baseball Savant. That is even better than his number from last year. His control has improved a lot as well.
Tanner Anderson starts for the A's, and I just don't trust him. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and a terrible 7.39 FIP in Triple A. Anderson has a 7.13 ERA and a 5.31 FIP so far this year in the majors. He is giving up some extremely hard contact, and he allows a lot of fly balls.
The Twins offense easily ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Minnesota should get plenty of scoring chances against Anderson.
Oakland is 0-4 in Anderson's last 4 starts.
|07-03-19||Astros v. Rockies OVER 13.5||4-2||Loss||-105||18 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this total is far higher than I would usually play an over at, but the baseball is clearly juiced this year and Coors Field is a hitters paradise this time of the year.
The forecast calls for 90 degrees and the wind blowing out by about 6 mph here. It has been warm the last few weeks at Coors Field, and how have things gone? Eight of the last nine games played here have finished at 15 runs or more.
Now, we see two very flawed starting pitchers show up. Wade Miley is due for regression. The Rockies have pounded left handed pitching in recent weeks.
Peter Lambert is giving up tons of hard contact, and the Astros are finally healthy on offense once again.
Look for a lot of runs from both teams.
Take the over.
|07-03-19||Brewers v. Reds -130||0-3||Win||100||16 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Jhoulys Chacin is a fade candidate for me. Chacin has struggled all season long. Even in his last start where his numbers look good, he was fortunate to strand 100% of runners on base in that game. Chacin's command isn't there right now.
The Reds have a career .371 weighted on base average against Chacin. This Reds lineup is better than they have shown so far this year, and I expect improvement in the coming months.
Sonny Gray has thrown it pretty well this year. Gray has very good stuff, and he is pitching with more confidence right now.
The Brewers are 0-7 in Chacin's last 7 road starts. The Reds are 7-0 in Gray's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.
|07-03-19||Tigers v. White Sox -128||5-7||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on White Sox ML in Game 1 of the Doubleheader on Wednesday* Dylan Cease has been called up to make his MLB debut here. Cease is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. He throws upper 90's with ease and has nasty secondary pitches as well. Cease will go against a Detroit team that has an awful .287 on base percentage against right handed pitching this year. That is 10 points worse than the second worst team in the majors.
Daniel Norris is battling multiple injuries right now. Norris has a finger injury and has been dealing with a groin injury as well. Norris is 0-6 with a 5.29 ERA in his last nine starts. While the White Sox don't have a great offense, they are much better against left handed pitching than right handers.
The Tigers are 6-21 in Norris' last 27 starts. The White Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
Take the White Sox in game one on Wednesday.
|07-02-19||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5||4-5||Loss||-115||19 h 54 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers -1.5* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a whopping 34-9 at home this year. The Dodgers are the best team in the National League right now, and it isn't close. I'm not saying something couldn't change between now and the playoffs, but the Dodgers are an excellent team.
The Dodgers have so much versatility in the field. The depth they have is amazing. The starting rotation is really deep as well. Ross Stripling would be a number two starter for some teams in the majors, but he doesn't regularly get starts for this team. Stripling has very good control and usually works from ahead in the count.
Taylor Clarke is a guy I'm looking to fade. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA and a 5.91 FIP in Triple A this year. Since coming to the big leagues, Clarke has put up a 6.10 ERA and a 6.04 FIP. Clarke did pick up the win in his last start against the Dodgers, but that was a misleading start. Clarke had a 6.40 FIP and 6.13 xFIP in that contest. How bad has Clarke been of late? He has a FIP over 6 in five of his last six starts.
The DBacks have a mediocre .312 wOBA against right handed pitching. They are elite against lefties, but they will see a solid right hander in this one.
In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen has been a top ten bullpen in the majors, while the Dbacks bullpen has been a bottom ten bullpen.
Take the Dodgers -1.5.
|06-30-19||Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 8||5-3||Push||0||15 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Cardinals offense has been terrible of late. Marcell Ozuna being out certainly hasn't helped, and many guys in this lineup are being too aggressive right now.
The Padres have had some offensive explosions of late, but a lot of those have come against left handed pitching. They are a top 10 offense against lefties and a bottom 10 offense against right handed pitching.
Miles Mikolas has pitched really well of late after a slow start to the season. Mikolas has a 3.18 FIP or lower in six of his last ten starts. Mikolas excels at inducing soft contact.
Joey Lucchesi is getting more swinging strikes this year, and he has managed to get much weaker contact from opposing hitters despite the juiced baseballs this year.
Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire.
Take the under.
|06-30-19||Cubs v. Reds OVER 10||6-8||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester starts here for the Chicago Cubs. Lester's overall numbers look pretty good, but under the surface there are definitely signs of problems. Lester is allowing way more hard hit batted balls than he ever has before. He has really struggled on the road this year as well. The Reds lineup has had a lot of success against him in a large sample size. Cincinnati has a .351 weighted on base average against Lester.
Anthony DeSclafani is a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. He has had major home run issues the last couple years. Where are those issues usually worse? At home, since he plays his home games at Great American Ballpark. Desclafani is giving up as many hard hit balls as anyone in the majors this year.
The forecast calls for 90 degrees and a 7-8 mph breeze toward center field. That's a clear plus here.
The Cubs are great against right handed pitching. The Reds have struggled badly against right handers this year, but they are 15th in wOBA against lefties.
Alan Porter is the umpire behind the plate here. The over is 13-2 in his last 15 games behind the dish.
Take the over.
|06-29-19||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-0||Loss||-105||17 h 33 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have a top ten offense. What are the Cubs really good at doing? This Cubs lineup is great at drawing walks. They are easily first in the majors in walk rate. They can make a starting pitcher work and take advantage of a pitcher who is having control issues.
Luis Castillo is a really talented pitcher, but something is off with him of late. Castillo has walked 21 batters in his last 27 innings. Now, he must face a Cubs lineup which excels at this skill.
Jose Quintana has struggled this year. Quintana's curveball isn't as reliable as it was a couple years ago. Quintana has been struggling with control of late as well.
The Reds lineup has been a disappointment this year, but I think they will improve the rest of the way. Joey Votto has really heated up, and now Scooter Gennett is back from injury finally. Gennett is an important part of his lineup.
Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is tough on pitchers. This is an over umpire who doesn't give the corners as much as the average umpire.
A temperature of 91 degrees with winds blowing out at nearly 10 mph at Great American Ballpark is a big help.
Take the over.
|06-29-19||Braves v. Mets OVER 9.5||5-4||Loss||-105||17 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is tremendous. The depth of their lineup isn't matched by many teams, especially not in the National League. Atlanta is fifth in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. In the last 30 days, the Braves rank number one in wOBA. This lineup is really dangerous.
The Mets are 10th in wOBA in the last 30 days. New York has had a lot of pitching meltdowns and bullpen woes lately, but their hitting has been good.
Steven Matz has the worst advanced metrics of his career. He has been very inconsistent this year. While he is capable of throwing it really well, he can also give up 8 or 9 runs.
Julio Teheran has a 3.99 ERA, but his SIERA of 5.21 suggests he is in line for some major regression. His hard hit batted ball rate is at the highest of his career.
The Braves lineup has a career wOBA of .366 against Matz. Teheran was just blasted by the Mets in his recent start against them.
A temperature of 91 degrees and winds blowing out are a big help.
Take the over.
|06-28-19||Pirates v. Brewers OVER 11||3-2||Loss||-100||8 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but the total is really high for a good reason. Chris Archer and Jhoulys Chacin have been absolutely terrible this year.
Archer has a 5.56 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season. A whopping 12.6% of batted balls against him have been barreled, so saying he has given up a bunch of hard hits is an understatement. Archer has been consistently bad as well. He has a individual game FIP of 4.35 or higher in ten straight starts.
Chacin has a 5.88 ERA and a 5.87 FIP. Chacin has allowed 43.8% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs (has never been above 39% before in his career). He is also walking 4.41 batters per nine innings.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging 7.43 runs per game in their last 7 contests. Pittsburgh ranks second in wOBA in the last 14 days.
The Brewers have a top 10 offense in baseball, and they have lot of depth on offense.
Both bullpens have been disappointing. Josh Hader pitched two innings for the Brewers yesterday. Both bullpens have a bunch of injuries right now.
Take the over.
|06-26-19||Pirates v. Astros -1.5||14-2||Loss||-119||8 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Astros -1.5* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 14th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching with a .320 wOBA. What about against lefties? The Pirates are awful against lefties. They sit in 28th with a wOBA of only .285.
Framber Valdez has very good stuff. His single biggest problem has been walks. The Pirates should be a good team for him to face since they are dead last in the majors in walk rate against lefties. They have a pathetic 4.4% walk rate against lefties. Valdez has great spin on his curveball and I think the Pirates will go after it more than most teams do.
Dario Agrazal is a middle of the road prospect for the Pirates. He has been mediocre in the minors, and there is nothing that suggests he would be all that good in the big leagues.
Houston's lineup has been great even without their stars, and now George Springer is back and healthy. McHugh is healthy and back to help in the bullpen as well.
The Astros have a big lineup advantage and a big bullpen advantage as well.
The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 41-17 in their last 58 home games.
Take Houston -1.5.
|06-25-19||Dodgers -110 v. Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Dodgers ML* The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball. They clearly look like the team to beat in the National League. The Dodgers lineup is excellent from top to bottom. The starting rotation is extremely deep. How deep? Ross Stripling lost his starting spot in the rotation, and he's a very good pitcher.
Stripling has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. Stripling makes the start here. He isn't likely to pitch really deep in the game, but the Dodgers bullpen has been better than the DBacks bullpen as well.
Robbie Ray has the potential to shut down any lineup when he is really on, but he has struggled badly at home. Ray also has poor control, and the Dodgers are very good at drawing walks. They should make him work tonight. Ray's home ERA is 4.15 in the last three years. His WHIP is a high 1.37.
At this price, I have to invest in the Dodgers tonight. The DBacks are much better against left handed pitching than right handers, and the Dodgers lineup has an impressive .335 OBP against Ray in his career.
Take the Dodgers.
|06-23-19||Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5||3-6||Win||100||17 h 56 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* In the last 30 days, the Rockies and Dodgers have been hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average during that time. Who is second? The Los Angeles Dodgers. These are two top offenses. They both are deep offensively, and they have quite a bit of power.
Dodger Stadium is much more friendly to hitters during day games. With a breeze blowing out at about 8 mph for this one the weather will be a positive.
Paul Emmel is one of the better over umpires in the league, and he can really make it tough on the starting pitcher.
Antonio Senzatela's numbers are the worst they've been in his career so far this season. Senzatels is getting less than 7% swinging strikes, and he is giving up more hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster against this strong Dodgers lineup.
Kenta Maeda is inconsistent and the Dodgers middle relief has been a weakness all season.
Take the over.
|06-22-19||Reds -103 v. Brewers||5-6||Loss||-103||14 h 59 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* Luis Castillo has elite stuff. He isn't quite in the superstar category yet, but he is a top 20 starting pitcher in the majors. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo gets a bunch of swings and misses, and he allows only a 85.3 mph batted ball average. Castillo is a rare pitcher who gets a bunch of swings and misses and induces very soft contact.
Jhoulys Chacin isn't good. Chacin has a 5.60 ERA and a 5.75 FIP on the year. He is allowing by far the hardest contact of his career. Chacin often gets behind in the count and that really hurts him.
The Reds are better than they looked earlier this year. With Votto, Puig, and Winker swinging the bat much better of late, this is a team that is capable of making a little noise. The Reds have a top five pitching staff (starters and bullpen combined) in the majors.
The Brewers are 0-5 in Chacin's last 5 starts. They are at a severe starting pitching disadvantage here, and I don't think that is reflected enough in the line here.
|06-22-19||Rays v. A's UNDER 9||2-4||Win||100||4 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have definitely cooled off offensively.
Oakland ranks right in the middle of the pack offensively. The A's aren't as good offensively at home, because their home park is very tough on hitters.
Neither of these teams have been good at drawing walks of late. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire behind the plate for this one, and his numbers point to him being a clear positive for the under. Rehak ranks in the top five of all umpires in least walks per game. He also ranks in the top five for lowest OBP for the offenses. Rehak is a strike caller.
Mike Fiers knows how to pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Fiers had a 2.91 ERA with a 0.882 WHIP at home last year. So far this year, Fiers has a 2.47 ERA and a great 0.87 WHIP at home.
Chirinos is a pretty good pitcher as well. He has had a couple bad outings, but on the whole he has done well based on limiting hard contact.
The under is 31-14-1 in the Rays last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. The under is 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 home starts.
Take the under.
|06-21-19||Rays -109 v. A's||5-3||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Rays ML* Tanner Anderson had a 6.26 ERA and an awful 7.32 FIP in Triple A this year. In his two starts in the big leagues he has been decent, but I definitely don't trust him.
Tampa Bay say Anderson once already, and I think that definitely helps here. Anderson already proved he wasn't good in Triple A, and now he faces a solid Rays lineup for the second time. Tampa Bay should get quite a few scoring chances here.
Kittredge is the opener here for the Rays and he is likely to be followed by Beeks. Kittredge has been excellent in Triple A and he has swing and miss stuff. Beeks has a 2.73 ERA and a 2.94 FIP. Oakland has been good against lefties this year because they have a lot of good right handed bats, but Beeks has actually been better against right handed hitters than lefties so far this year.
Both bullpens imploded last night, but the Rays bullpen definitely has an edge for the season. Tampa Bay is 11th in SIERA as a bullpen unit. The A's rank 21st.
I definitely prefer Kittredge and Beeks compared to Anderson, and this line is pretty low.
Take Tampa Bay.
|06-20-19||Rays v. A's UNDER 8||4-5||Loss||-105||20 h 57 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas have both really impressed me this season. Morton has the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He has proven himself to be an excellent starter.
Frankie Montas has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Montas has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6% last year to 11.0% this year. Montas is also allowing softer contact this year.
The Rays and A's are middle of the pack offenses. Oakland has been great on the road on offense this year, but at home they have struggled. The same was true a year ago.
The Rays have played a lot of low scoring games against quality teams.
Both of these teams have top ten bullpens and I see this one being low scoring throughout.
The under is 36-17-2 in the Rays last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Take the under.
|06-20-19||Reds +135 v. Brewers||7-1||Win||135||19 h 55 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Reds ML* The Milwaukee Brewers have been scuffling of late. The Reds have won four straight contests. The Reds are better than they showed earlier this season. With Joey Votto heating up a bit and Jesse Winker and Yasiel Puig finally swinging the bat well I would expect some improvement on offense for Cincinnati.
The Reds rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP. This is a deep bullpen that has an advantage over a banged up Milwaukee bullpen.
Tanner Roark has proven to be a nice pickup for the Reds. Roark's swinging strike rate is up, and he has done a pretty good job inducing soft contact.
Jimmy Nelson just came back from a long injury. Nelson has looked very bad against two terrible offenses in his first two starts. Nelson's velocity is down about 2 mph from two years ago, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact. He shouldn't be this big of a favorite against a mediocre team. I'll fade Nelson here.
|06-20-19||Mets v. Cubs OVER 9||4-7||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The weather isn't ideal at Wrigley Field for this one, but that is why the total is 9 at not higher.
Walker Lockett was called up from Triple A to make this start. I don't know why he was called up, but here he is. Lockett has been bad in Triple A for 3 straight seasons. How bad? He has a FIP of almost exactly 5 in Triple A. Also, Lockett is striking out only 3.28 batters per nine innings in Triple A. Wow. Lockett's numbers project as a guy who will struggle in a big way in the majors.
Tyler Chatwood gets a spot start for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks injured right now. Chatwood was terrible as a starter last year. While he will occasionally throw a good game, Chatwood is far too wild. His inability to find the strike zone generally gets him in big trouble. Chatwood had more walks than strikeouts last year. He has a better ERA than last year, but his advanced numbers aren't much different than last season.
The Cubs have a top five offense against right handed pitching. The Mets are 10th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.
Take the over.
|06-20-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||6-4||Win||100||13 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field.
Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.
John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.
Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.
The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.
Take the over.
|06-19-19||White Sox +135 v. Cubs||3-7||Loss||-100||18 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* This is too good of a price for me to pass up the White Sox with Giolito on the mound.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a grand total of six runs in his last eight starts. Giolito has been mowing down hitters. He has thrown a lot more of his offspeed pitches this year, and that has led to a lot more success. Hitters were blasting his fastball in past seasons. Giolito has a 2.22 ERA, and his FIP is 2.71.
Jon Lester started the season very well, but he has struggled a lot in recent weeks. Lester is allowing a lot more hard contact this year. Lester faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 13th in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching.
The White Sox have been competitive this year, and they clearly have the better starting pitcher going here.
I'll grab the big price.
Take the White Sox.
|06-19-19||Mets v. Braves OVER 9.5||2-7||Loss||-108||17 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties.
Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.
The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.
The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Take the over.
|06-18-19||Red Sox -114 v. Twins||3-4||Loss||-114||18 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Michael Pineda isn't a guy I trust against a really good Boston Red Sox lineup. Boston can struggle against lefties, but they are elite against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are clearly a top 5 offense in the majors against right handed pitching.
Michael Pineda still struggles with giving up the long ball far too often. He is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Red Sox have plenty of power, and they can spoil good pitches and make a pitcher work. Pineda is allowing more than 43% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs.
The Twins have beaten up on a weak schedule this year. They are now exactly .500 on the season against teams with a record above .500. Minnesota is a good team, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate.
David Price is coming off a really bad start, but he has been very good overall this year. Price had three gems in a row before this last poor start.
The Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 road games against a right handed starter. They are 21-7 in Price's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
|06-18-19||Mets v. Braves +110||10-2||Loss||-100||18 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I don't like to make a habit of betting against Jacob Degrom, but I have to take the Atlanta Braves at plus money here.
The Braves are as hot as anyone in baseball. I underrated this team prior to the season. I knew the offense could be good, but they are far better than I expected. How good have they been of late? Atlanta has a ridiculous .392 weighted on base average (wOBA). Second best in the majors during that time sits at .364 wOBA.
Atlanta's red hot run also comes as their bullpen has pitched much better of late. They have been a top ten bullpen in the last month, and the Mets have been a bottom ten bullpen.
Jacob Degrom has been very good this year, but he hasn't been on the level he was last year. Degrom has a 3.12 FIP this year compared to 1.99 a year ago.
Julio Teheran has been pitching great of late. Teheran has eight straight starts where he has allowed 1 earned run or less.
The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Mets are 0-5 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. A combined 22-1 angle.
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