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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-14-18||Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers||Top||45-42||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars +
I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9.
Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season.
While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|01-07-18||Panthers +7 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||50 h 5 m||Show|
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +
I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown.
Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg.
As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games.
It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina!
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||105 h 30 m||Show|
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +
I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts.
While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals.
Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright.
Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati!
|12-24-17||Chargers v. Jets +7||Top||14-7||Push||0||98 h 29 m||Show|
5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets +
I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins.
At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game.
I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright.
Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York!
|12-24-17||Rams v. Titans +7||Top||27-23||Win||100||98 h 28 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +
I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game.
I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs.
The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee!
|12-10-17||Vikings v. Panthers +3||Top||24-31||Win||100||16 h 3 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers
I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7.
The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons.
Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina!
|12-03-17||Giants v. Raiders -7||Top||17-24||Push||0||103 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders -
I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys.
New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose.
Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland!
|11-26-17||Bears +14 v. Eagles||Top||3-31||Loss||-110||101 h 53 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest.
The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down.
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago!
|11-23-17||Vikings v. Lions +3||Top||30-23||Loss||-105||29 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving.
Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored.
As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg.
Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit!
|11-19-17||Rams v. Vikings -2||Top||7-24||Win||100||110 h 59 m||Show|
5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team.
While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense.
Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota!
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +7.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-105||95 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos +
I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots.
There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright.
The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver!
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2||Top||14-34||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills -
Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders.
The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season.
Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles.
Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo!
|10-22-17||Falcons v. Patriots -3||Top||7-23||Win||100||150 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats -
I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit.
If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen.
Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England!
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears +3||Top||3-17||Win||105||145 h 23 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it.
I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game.
The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago!
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders +3||Top||30-31||Win||100||74 h 4 m||Show|
5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +
I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs.
Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books.
Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team
Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland!
|10-15-17||49ers v. Redskins -9.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-105||134 h 16 m||Show|
5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins -
I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers.
Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one.
As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early.
San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington!
|10-15-17||Packers v. Vikings +3||Top||10-23||Win||100||51 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings +
Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost.
Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable.
Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg.
I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright.
Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota!
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||35 h 58 m||Show|
5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers -
I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts.
Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here.
The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover.
When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina!
|10-08-17||Panthers +3 v. Lions||Top||27-24||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers +
I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions.
Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media.
This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game.
Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina!
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||28-17||Loss||-120||11 h 39 m||Show|
5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals +
I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys. Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football.
We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here.
The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer.
Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona!
|09-24-17||Broncos v. Bills +3.5||Top||16-26||Win||100||33 h 33 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills +
I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys.
The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2.
The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards.
Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo!
|09-21-17||Rams v. 49ers +3||Top||41-39||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* Rams/49ers NFC West 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on 49ers +3
The public is all over the Rams in this one, but I really like the value here with San Francisco a division dog. The 49ers have had a miserable start to the season. They got blowout at home by the Panthers in Week 1 23-3 and then blew a lead late in a 9-12 loss at Seattle. The thing is, those are two of the NFC's best teams and two of the elite defense in the NFL.
The Rams looked great in their opener against the Colts, but so will a lot of teams. They came back the next week and lost at home to the Redskins, getting outgained by more than 50 yards and totaled just 14 first downs to Washington's 21. I look for the 49ers defense to really make things tough on Jared Goff and this Rams offense.
You also have to keep in mind that San Francisco seems to always play well at home in these prime time games. A lot of you will likely remember last year's week 1 opener on MNF, which they won 28-0. Rams have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the NFC and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 49ers have covered 4 straight against division opponents. Take San Francisco!
|09-17-17||Patriots v. Saints +7||Top||36-20||Loss||-115||47 h 15 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Saints +
After a close look into this one, I think this line is just too high to pass up on New Orleans at home against a Patriots team that is dealing with some serious injuries on both sides of the ball. I don't think it's out of the question that New Orleans wins here outright.
New England had the looks of the best team in the NFL coming into the season, but then they lost arguably their most important offensive player not named Tom Brady in wide out Julian Edelman for the season, who was by far Brady's favorite target. To make matters worse, wide out Malcolm Mitchell, who shined as a rookie was put on IR and Danny Amendola is questionable. Even with the extra days to prepare, there's just not going to be that chemistry with the receivers that really make the Pats offense so good.
Defensively New England is expected to be without the one guy they really don't have the ability to replace in linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Just look at what the Chiefs did to this defense once he went out in the 2nd half. Now they got to face a real QB in Drew Brees on his home turf, where he's torched any and every defense that has visited the Superdome.
With how bad a shape the Pats are defensively, I just don't see New England running away with this thing. I see a one possession game that could go either way. Take New Orleans!
|09-11-17||Chargers +3 v. Broncos||Top||21-24||Push||0||10 h 16 m||Show|
5* Chargers/Broncos MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Chargers +
The Chargers are a team that I'm high on coming into the year, while the Broncos are one that I have huge concerns with. I'm going to take the points with Los Angeles in this AFC West clash. The reason Denver was able to win 9 games last year was their defense and while they will still rely on that side of the ball, they don't look as strong defensively in 2017.
Some of that is the guys they let go like safety T.J. Ward. More than anything it's the injuries that have piled up in the offseason. They won't have the lakes of Shane Ray, who was penciled in as the starter for DeMarcus Ware. They have guys like Aqib Talib and Dereck Wolfe that are playing at less than 100%.
Los Angeles is without their prized rookie wide out Mike Williams, but have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and a legit QB in veteran Philip Rivers. Denver's offense is a mess, as they weren't expecting Trevor Siemian to still be their starter (had hoped it would Paxton Lynch, but he's not looked the part). Keep in mind the Broncos were in the bottom 4 last year in drives that went 3 and out. They couldn't run the football (27th) and were horrible in the red-zone (26th).
Even with what will be a hostile environment, I see the Chargers having the easier time putting points on the board, making them the easy play catching a field goal. Take Los Angeles!
|09-10-17||Falcons v. Bears +7||Top||23-17||Win||100||73 h 28 m||Show|
5* NFL Week 1 'GAME OF THE YEAR' on Bears +
I think the value here is with Chicago catching a touchdown on their home field. The public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with the Bears against a Falcons team that they just saw play in the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know that and have inflated this line to force the public to pay a hefty price to back Atlanta here.
If you follow the NFL closely, you know that it’s often a lot harder for the team who loses the Super Bowl to bounce back the next season. We saw this first hand last year with the Panthers. Carolina went 15-1 in the regular season and cruised to the Super Bowl, where they were stunned by the Broncos. The Panthers not only missed the playoffs, they went a mere 6-10.
I’m not saying the Falcons are going to suffer that kind of setback, but it’s not out of the question. I could certainly see them starting off slow. Star wideout Julio Jones has missed a good chunk of the offseason recovering from toe surgery. He’s the one guy that really makes this offense go, as opposing teams have to pay so much attention to him.
The other key here is I don’t think the Bears are as bad as people think. They did a nice job building up the depth on the roster this offseason. Keep in mind they had 6 losses last year by a touchdown or less and all 3 of their wins came on their home field. I don't think an outright win is out of the question.
I think the offense is more than capable of having some success here and I think the defense will be able to do just enough to slow down the Falcons offense. A lot of people overlook the fact that Chicago ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (15th) and the pass (3rd). Take the Bears!
|09-07-17||Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots||Top||42-27||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* Chiefs/Patriots NFL 'VEGAS INSIDER' Top Play on Chiefs +
After a long look at this one, I really like the value here with Kansas City as a near double-digit underdog against the Patriots. New England is getting way to much respect from the books and with the public all over them, they got not choice but to inflate this line.
I have some major concerns with the Pats going into the season. The loss of Julian Edelman is a major blow to everything that NE does offensively. He's the guy that Brady looks to more than anyone and without him I think this offense will struggle to move the ball. At least against a top level defense like the Chiefs, who could really cause the Patriots problems if Justin Houston and Dee Ford are able to put pressure on Brady.
I also think people are overlooking New England's defense and how it could struggle this year. They certainly didn't play much defense in the preseason. The Chiefs aren't considered an offensive juggernaut, but they got two big time weapons in the passing game in Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. I also think people are going to be surprised with how well rookie RB Kareem Hunt fills in for Spencer Ware.
While Belichick is in a class of his own, Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league and his teams rarely under perform when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are a great matchup for NE, as they too don't turn the ball over and excel at special teams. I see this one coming right down to the wire. Take Kansas City!
|02-05-17||Patriots -3 v. Falcons||Top||34-28||Win||100||26 h 7 m||Show|
5* Super Bowl 51 NO LIMIT Top Play on Patriots -
I think the experience New England has of being in this spot, is a much bigger advantage than people think. Two things that I look for when making my Super Bowl pick, is the team with the better defense and head coach. I think New England has the clear edge in both of those departments.
One of the big questions that I keep hearing in the media is how will the Patriots slow down Atlanta’s offense. I understand the question, given what the Falcons have done to Seattle and Green Bay. What is getting overlooked, is neither of those defenses were 100% in the secondary. Seattle was without Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman was playing on a bum knee. As for the Packers, that defense has been decimated for quite a while now.
New England finished 8th in the NFL in total defense (326.4 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.6 ppg). The Patriots don’t have a bunch of superstars on this side of the ball, but are solid across the board. More than anything, Belichick puts them in positions to excel. Each week he puts together a gameplan specific for the opponent they are playing. Trust me, if anyone can slow down the Falcons, it’s Belichick. Especially when you give him two weeks to prepare.
People should be asking how will Atlanta’s defense stop New England from scoring. The Patriots were 4th in the NFL in total offense (386.3 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (27.6 ppg). They put up 34 on the Texans and 36 on the Steelers in their two playoff games. Both of which I feel are better than what Atlanta faced.
The Falcons defense has looked good in their last two games playing with big leads. However, this is a unit that wasn’t anything special this year. Atlanta was 25th in total defense (371.2 ypg) and 27th in points allowed (25.4 ppg).
I almost get the feeling that a lot of the action here on the Falcons is more out of the hate for the Patriots. Most of the public doesn’t like this team and are sick of them winning. The thing is, New England is 4-2 with Brady/Belichick in the Super Bowl. If not for two ridiculous drives by the Eli Manning, they would be 6-0.
|01-22-17||Steelers v. Patriots -6||Top||17-36||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* Steelers/Patriots AFC Champ Game ATS No Brainer on Patriots -
I like the value here with New England laying less than a touchdown at home. I’m not concerned with how the Patriots looked in their win over the Texans. The fact that they won by 18 and didn’t even play well says a lot about just how good this team is. Belichick will be sure to remind them of how poorly they played against Houston and that should have New England 100% locked in for this one.
My biggest concern with the Chiefs last week against the Steelers was their ability to stop Le’Veon Bell. It proved to be the difference, as Bell rushed 30 times for 170 yards (5.7 yards/carry). His big game overshadowed a not so great game for Roethlisberger. As mentioned in the Chiefs/Steelers preview last week, Big Ben is just not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home.
I believe the Patriots will be able to keep Bell in check and ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown. Keep in mind New England was 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing just 88.6 ypg. In that first meeting against the Steelers, they held Bell to just 81 yards on 21 attempts. That’s only 3.9 yards/carry.
You also can’t overlook just how big a homefield edge the Patriots have in the playoffs. Since Roethlisberger took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 1-3 in games played in New England. The only win coming in the 2008 regular season with Matt Cassell at QB for the Patriots. New England is also 7-2 in the last 9 including that game without Brady in 08.
The Patriots have also been covering machines against teams like the Steelers. NE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against teams who give up 5.65 or more yards/play on defense. They are also 15-4 ATS in their last 19 against teams who average 5.65 or more yards/play on offense. Patriots are also 12-3 ATS in home games over the last 2 years and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 17 points or less. On top of that, I don't see how the Antonio Brown distraction helps the Steelers and Pittsburgh has also been hit with the flu bug. Take New England!
|01-15-17||Steelers v. Chiefs -1||Top||18-16||Loss||-115||52 h 12 m||Show|
5* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Div Round Vegas Insider on Chiefs -
I love the value here with Kansas City laying less than a field goal at home. It would be easy to look at that first meeting and just assume the Steelers will dominate the Chiefs again. The thing is, this is no where close to the same Kansas City team that got embarrassed in early October.
Just about everything that could go wrong in that first meeting for the Chiefs did. They fumbled on their second position, leading to a Pittsburgh touchdown. The very next time they had the ball they threw an interception. Setting up another easy score. At that point the Steelers had all the momentum. Keep in mind that was big spot for the Pittsburgh. Playing at home in a prime time game and off an ugly 31-point loss the previous week at Philadelphia.
Revenge is a big time motivator, but it’s not the main factor in why I like the Chiefs. That would be the history of Kansas City head coach Andy Reid off a bye. As a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs, Reid’s teams are 19-2 when playing with a bye. That includes a perfect 3-0 record in the playoffs (all with the Eagles). Note that KC had one of it’s better games off a bye this season. They went into Oakland and dominated the Raiders 26-10. Outgaining Oakland 406 to 285.
The other big thing here is the change in venue. Pittsburgh a lot more vulnerable on the road than they are at home. The offense just doesn't produce at the same level, most notably Big Ben goes from an elite signal caller at home to average on the road. At the same time, the Chiefs have one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. Arrowhead is going to be crazy on Sunday.
A few big differences for the Chiefs compared to the first meeting. One is Tyreek Hill’s emergence as a major weapon both on offense an in the return game. Tight end Travis Kelce has also taken his game to a whole different level. The other is Justin Houston, who when at his best is one of the elite pass rushers in the game. I also think KC’s secondary is playing much better now than they were early in the year. A big part of that is the emergence of corner Terrance Mitchell. He’s made it tough on teams who don’t want to challenge Pro Bowl corner Marcus Peters on the other side. Keep in mind the Chiefs secondary was banged up in that first meeting with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games and we have a big time system in favor of the Chiefs. Home favorites whgo have won 3 of their last 4 against a team that's won 8 or more of their last 10 are 27-5 (84%) ATS over the last 10 seasons with a perfect 11-0 record over the last 3 years. Take Kansas City!
|01-07-17||Raiders v. Texans -3.5||Top||14-27||Win||100||26 h 45 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans -
This all comes down to Oakland playing without Carr. As I stated last week in my preview, you just don’t lose an MVP-caliber player and not suffer a setback. Especially at the quarterback position. Without Carr, this Raiders team would have been lucky to win 4-games. Keep in mind that 10 of their 12 wins came by 10-points or less. Several of which he made the difference with big plays when it mattered most in the 4th quarter. Given that, I think the value here is clearly with the Texans, who were a dominate team at home this season, going 7-1 in their 8 games.
As we saw against the Broncos, the Raiders offense was a shell of itself without Carr. I know Denver has one of the more respected defenses in the league, but they were missing a lot of key players. That same Broncos defense gave up 33 points and 484 yards the previous week the Chiefs. I just don’t see it getting any better on the road against a very talented Texans defense that ranked 12th against the run, 2nd against the pass and allowed just 16.6 ppg at home.
Not only will Oakland not have Carr, but they also won't have backup Matt McGloin. They instead will have to turn to rookie Connor Cook, who is forced with the near impossible task of being asked to win in his first career start on the road in the playoffs. Cook is going to have to throw for the Raiders to move the ball. When these two teams played earlier this season, the Texans held them to just 30 yards on 20 attempts. Carr was the difference maker in the win, going 21 of 31 for 295 yards and 3 scores.
It’s no secret the Texans don’t have a great offense. However, this is a team they can have success against. Even with Osweiler at quarterback. Oakland was 23rd against the run and 24th against the pass. Houston had 124 rushing yards and Osweiler threw for 243 in the earlier matchup. The thing is that there's so much negative talk about Osweiler that it's actually keeping this spread lower than it should be.
I think the Texans offense is more than capable of putting up 20+ points here. They should have great field position the majority of the game. At the same, I don’t know that Oakland can score 14 points and wouldn't be surprised if they failed to reach double-digits, so it's not like the Texans offense has to do a ton here to win and cover. Take Houston!
|01-01-17||Packers -3 v. Lions||Top||31-24||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
5* Packers/Lions SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Packers -
I know it’s a division road game, but I actually think there’s some great value here with Green Bay at this price. The Packers are playing their best football of the season right now. They have been in the playoffs each of the last 7 years and that experience will pay off here.
The Lions were a great story this year, as no one was giving them a chance to even be in this spot. The thing is, Detroit has been about as lucky as you can get in 2016. The Lions have 8 wins by a touchdown or less. Several of which came with them trailing in the 4th quarter. Detroit could just as easily be sitting here with 4 or 5 wins.
The Packers are a team that greatly underachieved early in the year. The offense couldn’t find a rhythm and the defense was decimated with injuries. That’s no longer the case, as Aaron Rodgers has the offense clicking and the defense is getting stops. Rodgers is in one of those zones right now, where it takes a near perfect game to beat him.
I just don’t think the Lions are capable of being that team to take the Packers down. Green Bay had little trouble moving the ball against Detroit back in Week 3. They scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on their first 5 possessions.
Another big key here is I don’t think Stafford is 100% right now. I know he’s played decent with the glove to protect his injured finger, but it’s just not the same. Without him at his best, I just don’t see Detroit being able to keep pace offensively with the Packers.
There’s a great system in play backing Green Bay. Road teams who have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 are 23-5 (82%) against the spread in the final two weeks of the season over the last 5 years. Take Green Bay!
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