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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-106||51 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +
I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread.
Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly.
The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||78 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -
This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards.
The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games.
I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-103||53 h 38 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers.
You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend.
While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field.
Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota!
|12-23-18||Vikings v. Lions +6||Top||27-9||Loss||-102||51 h 37 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy.
I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason.
Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD.
Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +6.5||Top||12-9||Win||100||51 h 35 m||Show|
5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +
This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road.
Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11.
The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game.
It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +
Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure.
A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball.
While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland!
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||Top||24-27||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +
This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games.
With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball.
With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce.
The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore!
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +10||Top||30-16||Loss||-105||122 h 57 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season.
On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.
I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog.
Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +7.5||Top||10-13||Win||100||79 h 54 m||Show|
5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +
We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys.
That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11.
The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas!
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||Top||24-27||Win||100||104 h 31 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +
It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown.
I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright.
The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.
Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami!
|11-22-18||Falcons +12.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-105||82 h 18 m||Show|
5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Falcons +
The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up.
Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that.
I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta!
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-115||44 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +
I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings.
The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota.
Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less.
We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit!
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears -2.5||Top||20-25||Win||100||59 h 2 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -
I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should
The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff.
Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago!
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||82 h 45 m||Show|
5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Packers +
There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals.
While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense.
The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay!
|11-11-18||Patriots v. Titans +7||Top||10-34||Win||100||100 h 19 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +
Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans.
I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg.
While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game.
Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee!
|11-04-18||Bears v. Bills +10||Top||41-9||Loss||-105||86 h 10 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +
The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog.
Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.
I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them.
Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo!
|10-29-18||Patriots v. Bills +14||Top||25-6||Loss||-105||124 h 25 m||Show|
5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +
We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it.
There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago.
The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been.
I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo!
|10-28-18||Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5||Top||24-18||Loss||-115||131 h 53 m||Show|
5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +
I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium.
Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."
Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6.
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville!
|10-21-18||Texans v. Jaguars -4.5||Top||20-7||Loss||-105||125 h 33 m||Show|
5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags -
This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday.
The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston.
I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team.
I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants +3||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +
The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late.
The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined.
The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York!
|10-07-18||Dolphins +6.5 v. Bengals||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||76 h 39 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +
Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England.
I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss.
Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable.
I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami!
|09-23-18||49ers +7 v. Chiefs||Top||27-38||Loss||-105||100 h 7 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers +
The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league.
Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense.
I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright.
There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco!
|09-20-18||Jets +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-21||Loss||-100||36 h 31 m||Show|
5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets +
The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now.
The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup.
No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York!
|09-16-18||Patriots v. Jaguars +2||Top||20-31||Win||100||61 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +
This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home.
This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable.
I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush.
Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|09-09-18||Bengals v. Colts -3||Top||34-23||Loss||-105||482 h 27 m||Show|
5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts -
This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them.
The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense.
Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis!
|09-09-18||Bills +7.5 v. Ravens||Top||3-47||Loss||-110||134 h 50 m||Show|
5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills +
Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus.
All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio.
Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents.
Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo!
|09-06-18||Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles||Top||12-18||Loss||-119||217 h 36 m||Show|
5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons +
It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta.
Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center.
Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won.
I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta!
|01-14-18||Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers||Top||45-42||Win||100||75 h 58 m||Show|
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars +
I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9.
Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season.
While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville!
|01-07-18||Panthers +7 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||50 h 5 m||Show|
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers +
I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown.
Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg.
As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games.
It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina!
|12-31-17||Bengals +10 v. Ravens||Top||31-27||Win||100||105 h 30 m||Show|
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals +
I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts.
While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals.
Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright.
Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati!
|12-24-17||Chargers v. Jets +7||Top||14-7||Push||0||98 h 29 m||Show|
5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets +
I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins.
At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game.
I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright.
Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York!
|12-24-17||Rams v. Titans +7||Top||27-23||Win||100||98 h 28 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +
I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game.
I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs.
The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee!
|12-10-17||Vikings v. Panthers +3||Top||24-31||Win||100||16 h 3 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers
I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7.
The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons.
Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina!
|12-03-17||Giants v. Raiders -7||Top||17-24||Push||0||103 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders -
I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys.
New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose.
Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland!
|11-26-17||Bears +14 v. Eagles||Top||3-31||Loss||-110||101 h 53 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest.
The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down.
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago!
|11-23-17||Vikings v. Lions +3||Top||30-23||Loss||-105||29 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving.
Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored.
As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg.
Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit!
|11-19-17||Rams v. Vikings -2||Top||7-24||Win||100||110 h 59 m||Show|
5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team.
While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense.
Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota!
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +7.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-105||95 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos +
I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots.
There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright.
The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver!
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2||Top||14-34||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills -
Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders.
The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season.
Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles.
Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo!
|10-22-17||Falcons v. Patriots -3||Top||7-23||Win||100||150 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats -
I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit.
If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen.
Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England!
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears +3||Top||3-17||Win||105||145 h 23 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it.
I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game.
The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago!
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders +3||Top||30-31||Win||100||74 h 4 m||Show|
5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +
I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs.
Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books.
Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team
Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland!
|10-15-17||49ers v. Redskins -9.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-105||134 h 16 m||Show|
5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins -
I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers.
Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one.
As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early.
San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington!
|10-15-17||Packers v. Vikings +3||Top||10-23||Win||100||51 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings +
Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost.
Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable.
Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg.
I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright.
Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota!
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||35 h 58 m||Show|
5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers -
I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts.
Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here.
The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover.
When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina!
|10-08-17||Panthers +3 v. Lions||Top||27-24||Win||100||45 h 39 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers +
I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions.
Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media.
This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game.
Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina!
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||28-17||Loss||-120||11 h 39 m||Show|
5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals +
I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys. Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football.
We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here.
The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer.
Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona!
|09-24-17||Broncos v. Bills +3.5||Top||16-26||Win||100||33 h 33 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills +
I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys.
The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2.
The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards.
Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo!
|09-21-17||Rams v. 49ers +3||Top||41-39||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* Rams/49ers NFC West 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on 49ers +3
The public is all over the Rams in this one, but I really like the value here with San Francisco a division dog. The 49ers have had a miserable start to the season. They got blowout at home by the Panthers in Week 1 23-3 and then blew a lead late in a 9-12 loss at Seattle. The thing is, those are two of the NFC's best teams and two of the elite defense in the NFL.
The Rams looked great in their opener against the Colts, but so will a lot of teams. They came back the next week and lost at home to the Redskins, getting outgained by more than 50 yards and totaled just 14 first downs to Washington's 21. I look for the 49ers defense to really make things tough on Jared Goff and this Rams offense.
You also have to keep in mind that San Francisco seems to always play well at home in these prime time games. A lot of you will likely remember last year's week 1 opener on MNF, which they won 28-0. Rams have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the NFC and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 49ers have covered 4 straight against division opponents. Take San Francisco!
|09-17-17||Patriots v. Saints +7||Top||36-20||Loss||-115||47 h 15 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Saints +
After a close look into this one, I think this line is just too high to pass up on New Orleans at home against a Patriots team that is dealing with some serious injuries on both sides of the ball. I don't think it's out of the question that New Orleans wins here outright.
New England had the looks of the best team in the NFL coming into the season, but then they lost arguably their most important offensive player not named Tom Brady in wide out Julian Edelman for the season, who was by far Brady's favorite target. To make matters worse, wide out Malcolm Mitchell, who shined as a rookie was put on IR and Danny Amendola is questionable. Even with the extra days to prepare, there's just not going to be that chemistry with the receivers that really make the Pats offense so good.
Defensively New England is expected to be without the one guy they really don't have the ability to replace in linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Just look at what the Chiefs did to this defense once he went out in the 2nd half. Now they got to face a real QB in Drew Brees on his home turf, where he's torched any and every defense that has visited the Superdome.
With how bad a shape the Pats are defensively, I just don't see New England running away with this thing. I see a one possession game that could go either way. Take New Orleans!
|09-11-17||Chargers +3 v. Broncos||Top||21-24||Push||0||10 h 16 m||Show|
5* Chargers/Broncos MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Chargers +
The Chargers are a team that I'm high on coming into the year, while the Broncos are one that I have huge concerns with. I'm going to take the points with Los Angeles in this AFC West clash. The reason Denver was able to win 9 games last year was their defense and while they will still rely on that side of the ball, they don't look as strong defensively in 2017.
Some of that is the guys they let go like safety T.J. Ward. More than anything it's the injuries that have piled up in the offseason. They won't have the lakes of Shane Ray, who was penciled in as the starter for DeMarcus Ware. They have guys like Aqib Talib and Dereck Wolfe that are playing at less than 100%.
Los Angeles is without their prized rookie wide out Mike Williams, but have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and a legit QB in veteran Philip Rivers. Denver's offense is a mess, as they weren't expecting Trevor Siemian to still be their starter (had hoped it would Paxton Lynch, but he's not looked the part). Keep in mind the Broncos were in the bottom 4 last year in drives that went 3 and out. They couldn't run the football (27th) and were horrible in the red-zone (26th).
Even with what will be a hostile environment, I see the Chargers having the easier time putting points on the board, making them the easy play catching a field goal. Take Los Angeles!
|09-10-17||Falcons v. Bears +7||Top||23-17||Win||100||73 h 28 m||Show|
5* NFL Week 1 'GAME OF THE YEAR' on Bears +
I think the value here is with Chicago catching a touchdown on their home field. The public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with the Bears against a Falcons team that they just saw play in the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know that and have inflated this line to force the public to pay a hefty price to back Atlanta here.
If you follow the NFL closely, you know that it’s often a lot harder for the team who loses the Super Bowl to bounce back the next season. We saw this first hand last year with the Panthers. Carolina went 15-1 in the regular season and cruised to the Super Bowl, where they were stunned by the Broncos. The Panthers not only missed the playoffs, they went a mere 6-10.
I’m not saying the Falcons are going to suffer that kind of setback, but it’s not out of the question. I could certainly see them starting off slow. Star wideout Julio Jones has missed a good chunk of the offseason recovering from toe surgery. He’s the one guy that really makes this offense go, as opposing teams have to pay so much attention to him.
The other key here is I don’t think the Bears are as bad as people think. They did a nice job building up the depth on the roster this offseason. Keep in mind they had 6 losses last year by a touchdown or less and all 3 of their wins came on their home field. I don't think an outright win is out of the question.
I think the offense is more than capable of having some success here and I think the defense will be able to do just enough to slow down the Falcons offense. A lot of people overlook the fact that Chicago ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (15th) and the pass (3rd). Take the Bears!
|09-07-17||Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots||Top||42-27||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* Chiefs/Patriots NFL 'VEGAS INSIDER' Top Play on Chiefs +
After a long look at this one, I really like the value here with Kansas City as a near double-digit underdog against the Patriots. New England is getting way to much respect from the books and with the public all over them, they got not choice but to inflate this line.
I have some major concerns with the Pats going into the season. The loss of Julian Edelman is a major blow to everything that NE does offensively. He's the guy that Brady looks to more than anyone and without him I think this offense will struggle to move the ball. At least against a top level defense like the Chiefs, who could really cause the Patriots problems if Justin Houston and Dee Ford are able to put pressure on Brady.
I also think people are overlooking New England's defense and how it could struggle this year. They certainly didn't play much defense in the preseason. The Chiefs aren't considered an offensive juggernaut, but they got two big time weapons in the passing game in Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. I also think people are going to be surprised with how well rookie RB Kareem Hunt fills in for Spencer Ware.
While Belichick is in a class of his own, Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league and his teams rarely under perform when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are a great matchup for NE, as they too don't turn the ball over and excel at special teams. I see this one coming right down to the wire. Take Kansas City!
|02-05-17||Patriots -3 v. Falcons||Top||34-28||Win||100||26 h 7 m||Show|
5* Super Bowl 51 NO LIMIT Top Play on Patriots -
I think the experience New England has of being in this spot, is a much bigger advantage than people think. Two things that I look for when making my Super Bowl pick, is the team with the better defense and head coach. I think New England has the clear edge in both of those departments.
One of the big questions that I keep hearing in the media is how will the Patriots slow down Atlanta’s offense. I understand the question, given what the Falcons have done to Seattle and Green Bay. What is getting overlooked, is neither of those defenses were 100% in the secondary. Seattle was without Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman was playing on a bum knee. As for the Packers, that defense has been decimated for quite a while now.
New England finished 8th in the NFL in total defense (326.4 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.6 ppg). The Patriots don’t have a bunch of superstars on this side of the ball, but are solid across the board. More than anything, Belichick puts them in positions to excel. Each week he puts together a gameplan specific for the opponent they are playing. Trust me, if anyone can slow down the Falcons, it’s Belichick. Especially when you give him two weeks to prepare.
People should be asking how will Atlanta’s defense stop New England from scoring. The Patriots were 4th in the NFL in total offense (386.3 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (27.6 ppg). They put up 34 on the Texans and 36 on the Steelers in their two playoff games. Both of which I feel are better than what Atlanta faced.
The Falcons defense has looked good in their last two games playing with big leads. However, this is a unit that wasn’t anything special this year. Atlanta was 25th in total defense (371.2 ypg) and 27th in points allowed (25.4 ppg).
I almost get the feeling that a lot of the action here on the Falcons is more out of the hate for the Patriots. Most of the public doesn’t like this team and are sick of them winning. The thing is, New England is 4-2 with Brady/Belichick in the Super Bowl. If not for two ridiculous drives by the Eli Manning, they would be 6-0.
|01-22-17||Steelers v. Patriots -6||Top||17-36||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* Steelers/Patriots AFC Champ Game ATS No Brainer on Patriots -
I like the value here with New England laying less than a touchdown at home. I’m not concerned with how the Patriots looked in their win over the Texans. The fact that they won by 18 and didn’t even play well says a lot about just how good this team is. Belichick will be sure to remind them of how poorly they played against Houston and that should have New England 100% locked in for this one.
My biggest concern with the Chiefs last week against the Steelers was their ability to stop Le’Veon Bell. It proved to be the difference, as Bell rushed 30 times for 170 yards (5.7 yards/carry). His big game overshadowed a not so great game for Roethlisberger. As mentioned in the Chiefs/Steelers preview last week, Big Ben is just not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home.
I believe the Patriots will be able to keep Bell in check and ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown. Keep in mind New England was 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing just 88.6 ypg. In that first meeting against the Steelers, they held Bell to just 81 yards on 21 attempts. That’s only 3.9 yards/carry.
You also can’t overlook just how big a homefield edge the Patriots have in the playoffs. Since Roethlisberger took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 1-3 in games played in New England. The only win coming in the 2008 regular season with Matt Cassell at QB for the Patriots. New England is also 7-2 in the last 9 including that game without Brady in 08.
The Patriots have also been covering machines against teams like the Steelers. NE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against teams who give up 5.65 or more yards/play on defense. They are also 15-4 ATS in their last 19 against teams who average 5.65 or more yards/play on offense. Patriots are also 12-3 ATS in home games over the last 2 years and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 17 points or less. On top of that, I don't see how the Antonio Brown distraction helps the Steelers and Pittsburgh has also been hit with the flu bug. Take New England!
|01-15-17||Steelers v. Chiefs -1||Top||18-16||Loss||-115||52 h 12 m||Show|
5* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Div Round Vegas Insider on Chiefs -
I love the value here with Kansas City laying less than a field goal at home. It would be easy to look at that first meeting and just assume the Steelers will dominate the Chiefs again. The thing is, this is no where close to the same Kansas City team that got embarrassed in early October.
Just about everything that could go wrong in that first meeting for the Chiefs did. They fumbled on their second position, leading to a Pittsburgh touchdown. The very next time they had the ball they threw an interception. Setting up another easy score. At that point the Steelers had all the momentum. Keep in mind that was big spot for the Pittsburgh. Playing at home in a prime time game and off an ugly 31-point loss the previous week at Philadelphia.
Revenge is a big time motivator, but it’s not the main factor in why I like the Chiefs. That would be the history of Kansas City head coach Andy Reid off a bye. As a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs, Reid’s teams are 19-2 when playing with a bye. That includes a perfect 3-0 record in the playoffs (all with the Eagles). Note that KC had one of it’s better games off a bye this season. They went into Oakland and dominated the Raiders 26-10. Outgaining Oakland 406 to 285.
The other big thing here is the change in venue. Pittsburgh a lot more vulnerable on the road than they are at home. The offense just doesn't produce at the same level, most notably Big Ben goes from an elite signal caller at home to average on the road. At the same time, the Chiefs have one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. Arrowhead is going to be crazy on Sunday.
A few big differences for the Chiefs compared to the first meeting. One is Tyreek Hill’s emergence as a major weapon both on offense an in the return game. Tight end Travis Kelce has also taken his game to a whole different level. The other is Justin Houston, who when at his best is one of the elite pass rushers in the game. I also think KC’s secondary is playing much better now than they were early in the year. A big part of that is the emergence of corner Terrance Mitchell. He’s made it tough on teams who don’t want to challenge Pro Bowl corner Marcus Peters on the other side. Keep in mind the Chiefs secondary was banged up in that first meeting with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games and we have a big time system in favor of the Chiefs. Home favorites whgo have won 3 of their last 4 against a team that's won 8 or more of their last 10 are 27-5 (84%) ATS over the last 10 seasons with a perfect 11-0 record over the last 3 years. Take Kansas City!
|01-07-17||Raiders v. Texans -3.5||Top||14-27||Win||100||26 h 45 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans -
This all comes down to Oakland playing without Carr. As I stated last week in my preview, you just don’t lose an MVP-caliber player and not suffer a setback. Especially at the quarterback position. Without Carr, this Raiders team would have been lucky to win 4-games. Keep in mind that 10 of their 12 wins came by 10-points or less. Several of which he made the difference with big plays when it mattered most in the 4th quarter. Given that, I think the value here is clearly with the Texans, who were a dominate team at home this season, going 7-1 in their 8 games.
As we saw against the Broncos, the Raiders offense was a shell of itself without Carr. I know Denver has one of the more respected defenses in the league, but they were missing a lot of key players. That same Broncos defense gave up 33 points and 484 yards the previous week the Chiefs. I just don’t see it getting any better on the road against a very talented Texans defense that ranked 12th against the run, 2nd against the pass and allowed just 16.6 ppg at home.
Not only will Oakland not have Carr, but they also won't have backup Matt McGloin. They instead will have to turn to rookie Connor Cook, who is forced with the near impossible task of being asked to win in his first career start on the road in the playoffs. Cook is going to have to throw for the Raiders to move the ball. When these two teams played earlier this season, the Texans held them to just 30 yards on 20 attempts. Carr was the difference maker in the win, going 21 of 31 for 295 yards and 3 scores.
It’s no secret the Texans don’t have a great offense. However, this is a team they can have success against. Even with Osweiler at quarterback. Oakland was 23rd against the run and 24th against the pass. Houston had 124 rushing yards and Osweiler threw for 243 in the earlier matchup. The thing is that there's so much negative talk about Osweiler that it's actually keeping this spread lower than it should be.
I think the Texans offense is more than capable of putting up 20+ points here. They should have great field position the majority of the game. At the same, I don’t know that Oakland can score 14 points and wouldn't be surprised if they failed to reach double-digits, so it's not like the Texans offense has to do a ton here to win and cover. Take Houston!
|01-01-17||Packers -3 v. Lions||Top||31-24||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
5* Packers/Lions SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Packers -
I know it’s a division road game, but I actually think there’s some great value here with Green Bay at this price. The Packers are playing their best football of the season right now. They have been in the playoffs each of the last 7 years and that experience will pay off here.
The Lions were a great story this year, as no one was giving them a chance to even be in this spot. The thing is, Detroit has been about as lucky as you can get in 2016. The Lions have 8 wins by a touchdown or less. Several of which came with them trailing in the 4th quarter. Detroit could just as easily be sitting here with 4 or 5 wins.
The Packers are a team that greatly underachieved early in the year. The offense couldn’t find a rhythm and the defense was decimated with injuries. That’s no longer the case, as Aaron Rodgers has the offense clicking and the defense is getting stops. Rodgers is in one of those zones right now, where it takes a near perfect game to beat him.
I just don’t think the Lions are capable of being that team to take the Packers down. Green Bay had little trouble moving the ball against Detroit back in Week 3. They scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on their first 5 possessions.
Another big key here is I don’t think Stafford is 100% right now. I know he’s played decent with the glove to protect his injured finger, but it’s just not the same. Without him at his best, I just don’t see Detroit being able to keep pace offensively with the Packers.
There’s a great system in play backing Green Bay. Road teams who have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 are 23-5 (82%) against the spread in the final two weeks of the season over the last 5 years. Take Green Bay!
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