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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-01-17||Astros +155 v. Dodgers||5-1||Win||155||12 h 15 m||Show|
4* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 NO BRAINER on Houston +
Last year we saw the Cubs win Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and I think we see Houston pull off the same feat tonight in Los Angeles. That day off between Game 5 and Game 6 really helped the Dodgers bullpen, but just about all of their top guns out of the pen pitched, including a 6 out save by closer Kenley Jansen.
The big concern here is they have to send out Yu Darvish for the start in Game 7 and many will remember how poorly he threw in Game 3, giving up 4 runs before being pulled with 2 outs in the 2nd inning. I know Kershaw is available out of the pen and will likely pitch, but I'm not so sure that's a good thing after his struggles in Game 5.
I just think this game is going to come down to which offense can produce and I trust the Astros young hitters a lot more, especially after a bad showing like they had in Game 6. Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 road games after scoring 1 run or less, as they have come back with just over 5 runs/game in this spot. Take Houston!
|10-31-17||Astros v. Dodgers -112||1-3||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
3* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 BEST BET on Dodgers -I think we are getting great value here with Los Angeles laying a short number at home, as I'm confident they send this to a Game 7. The Dodgers will send out Rich Hill against Justin Verlander. Hill allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 4 innings of Game 2. I expect another strong outing from Hill, who has a 2.77 ERA in his 3 postseason starts. I also think we see Hill give the Dodgers a few more innings here than normal in this spot. Houston will send out Verlander, who pitched well against Hill in Game 2, but made a couple mistakes that resulted in 3 runs on 2 homers. Note that was his first postseason start on the road this postseason and he had a 4.18 ERA on the road this season (3.19 ERA overall). He’s came out and said he doesn’t like the baseballs they are using for the World Series and I think he struggles enough here for the Dodgers to secure the win at home. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 after a loss and 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take Los Angeles!
|10-28-17||Dodgers +118 v. Astros||6-2||Win||118||17 h 8 m||Show|
4* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers +
I'm firing back with the Dodgers to even up the series in Game 4 after losing Game 3 last night. LA just couldn't recover from a bad start by Darvish, who failed to complete 2 innings. The bullpen did their part allowing just 1 run (unearned) over the final 7 1/3 innings. They should get a much better performance from today's starter Alex Wood, who is going to be fresh having made just one postseason start to this point. Wood was sensational on the road this season, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts.
Houston will counter here with Charlie Morton, who has just a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which have come in the postseason. I think we see the Dodgers offense come to life in this one, much like Houston's offense did in Game 3.
Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 road starts. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games. Take the DODGERS!
|10-27-17||Dodgers +120 v. Astros||3-5||Loss||-100||9 h 14 m||Show|
3* Dodgers/Astros 'Game 3' World Series HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers +
I like the value here with Los Angeles in Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers were 3 outs from having a 2-0 lead, but the usually reliable bullpen had an off night. I still think LA is the better team and will bounce back with a win to take control of the series.
It all comes down to the pitching matchup, which I feel favors the Dodgers quite a bit. LA will send out Yu Darvish, who has been lights out in the postseason, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with only 1 walk and 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings (2 starts). Both outings came on the road, so no concern with him not being able to handle the atmosphere away from home.
Houston counters with Lance McCullers and he too has made 2 starts in the playoffs. He's giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 9 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. While McCullers pitched well in his ALCS start against the Yankees, he was rocked in the ALDS by the Red Sox. The most concerning thing is how the Astros struggle to win when he is on the mound. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of his last 9 starts overall. Take Los Angeles!
|10-25-17||Astros +105 v. Dodgers||7-6||Win||105||17 h 55 m||Show|
3* Astros/Dodgers 'Game 2' World Series ANNIHILATOR on Astros +
I'm taking Houston in Game 2 of the World Series on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't get the offense going in Game 1 against Kershaw, which is to be expected. Now the roles will be reversed, as Houston sends out their ace and postseason star in Justin Verlander.
Since Verlander arrived in Houston he's taken his game to a whole different level and it's carried over into the postseason. He's made 3 starts and 1 appearance out of the pen in the playoffs this year and has posted a 1.46 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The most important stat is that the Astros have won every game he's pitched and I don't see that trend ending tonight.
Keep in mind Verlander got a shot at these Dodgers during the regular season this year and was able to limit them to just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. Hill has been good for LA, but this Houston offense is loaded and should be able to push across a few runs to secure the win. Take Houston!
|10-24-17||Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers||1-3||Loss||-140||22 h 22 m||Show|
3* Astros/Dodgers WS Game 1 BEST BET on Astros +1.5
I like the value here with Houston on the +1.5 run line for Game 1 of the World Series. We got two of the games best starters on the mound in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel and all signs point to a closely contested matchup to get the series started. That puts the value here with Houston, who we need to either win or lose by 1 or less.
I think there's a decent chance the Astros pull out the victory. As good as Kershaw has been, he's got a 3.64 ERA in his 3 postseason starts this year and has allowed 6 home runs in the playoffs so far. With the ball figuring to carry a little better with the heat wave in LA, Houston could blow this open early. Take the Astros +1.5!
|10-20-17||Yankees v. Astros -137||1-7||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
3* Yankees/Astros Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Houston -
It's hard to go against a team that's won 3 straight, but I just see too much value here in the Astros at home with Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been lights out down the stretch and was incredible in Game 2 against these Yankees, giving up just 1 run with 13 K's, while going the distance.
Yankees send out Luis Severino, who I'm not convinced can shoulder the load of this game. All I can recall is that Wild Card start against the Twins, where he gave up 3 runs while recording just 1 out in the Top of the 1st before getting pulled. He also wasn't great in Game 2 opposite of Verlander, lasting just 4 innings without a single strikeout. I think Houston's offense comes to life here and they send this to a Game 7. Take Houston!
|10-18-17||Astros v. Yankees +1.5||0-5||Win||100||18 h 29 m||Show|
4* Astros/Yankees Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees +1.5 -
Much like they did in the ALDS the Yankees have rallied from an 0-2 deficit to tie up the series 2-2 with Houston. The most recent win coming in dramatic fashion, as New York turned a 0-4 deficit into a 6-4 win by scoring 6 runs in the 7th and 8th. I like the Yankees to keep the momentum going, but I'm going to play the +1.5 run line for some added insurance.
All signs point to Game 5 being a low-scoring game, which only increases the likelihood of this one being decided by just 1 run. Houston sends out ace Dallas Keuchel, while the Yankees counter with the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.90 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts, with a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his 2 playoff appearances. Tanaka was also 10-5 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 16 home starts this season.
Houston is just 4-14 against the run line in road games after a contest where the bullpen allowed 5 or more earned runs and 5-18 in Keuchel's last 23 starts after a loss. Take New York +1.5!
|10-17-17||Dodgers v. Cubs -113||6-1||Loss||-113||26 h 4 m||Show|
3* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Cubs -
I like the value here with Chicago to take care business at home and get back into this series after losing each of the first two in LA. The Cubs aren't a team to panic and seem to relish having their backs against the wall. The offense struggled in Los Angeles, but will return home, where they averaged 5.3 runs/game on the season.
Chicago will give the rock to Kyle Hendricks, who I expect to dominate this Dodgers, much like he has in the past. Hendricks has a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against LA. He faced them twice in last year's NLCS and limited the Dodgers to just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 inning of work.
LA's bullpen has been great, but the Dodgers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen didn't allow a run. Dodgers are just 6-13 in their last 19 playoff road games and 1-10 in their last 11 road games in the NLCS. Cubs are 31-12 in their last 43 off a loss and 20-8 in Hendricks last 28 starts after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take Chicago!
|10-17-17||Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5||Top||6-1||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
5* MLB Postseason TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER
I absolutely love the UNDER in tonight's NLCS Game 3 between the Cubs and Dodgers. Two outstanding pitchers will face off, as Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, while Los Angeles gives the rock to Yu Darvish.
Hendricks is your modern day Greg Maddux, who relies on exceptional location and movement to attack hitters. He comes in with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and most importantly has owned the Dodgers. He's got a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Two of those coming in last year's NLCS, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. Darvis had his struggles early with LA, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.519 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
UNDER is 24-6-1 in Hendricks's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 playoff home games and 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|10-17-17||Astros v. Yankees -117||4-6||Win||100||2 h 3 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Yankees -
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|10-16-17||Astros v. Yankees -1.5||1-8||Win||165||22 h 43 m||Show|
3* Astros/Yankees Game 3 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees -1.5
I confident the Yankees will walk away with a win in Game 3 that I'll take the gamble here and play the run line and call for them to win by at least 2 to bring home a bigger profit. New York has been in this spot before, as they were down 0-2 to the Indians before taking the final three to advance to the ALCS. While they have lost the first two in this series, both could have win the other way, as they fell 2-1 in each contest.
A return home should be just what the Yankees need to get back in the series, plus they have the red-hot C.C. Sabathia on the mound in this one. Sabathia doesn't have the stamina to go deep in games, but he can you a solid 5 to 6 innings and let that elite NY bullpen do the rest. Key here is the Yankees offense should provide some help, as Houston sends out Charlie Morton, which is quite a big drop off from the Astros first two starters in the series in Keuchel and Verlander.
Teams that have lost 2 straight by exactly 1 run against an opponent that has scored and allowed 3 or less in their last game are 58-30 against the run line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% long-term system in favor of the Yankees not only winning, but winning by at least 2. Take New York!
|10-13-17||Yankees +163 v. Astros||1-2||Loss||-100||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* Yankees/Astros Game 1 BEST BEST on Yankees +
I think the long layoff for Houston hurts them against a Yankees team that couldn't be playing with more confidence after taking 3 straight to overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS agains the Indians. I know Keuchel has owned the Yankees, but he hasn't been going deep in games. Only went 5 2/3 in his only start against Boston and had allowed just 1 run and 3 hits. His control has also been off, as he walked 3 Red Sox hitters. I think New York can sneak a couple runs against him.
The key here is Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka and can he keep the Astros lineup in check. I think the can. He's been throwing well of late and was sensational in the pivotal Game 3 against Cleveland, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. I also think the longer than normal rest between games is also a disadvantage for the hitters. Add in the value we are getting with these odds and I think it's a no brainer what side you should be playing in Game 1. Take New York!
|10-11-17||Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5||5-2||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
3* Yankees/Indians MLB Total DOMINATOR on Yankees UNDER
I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total for Game 5 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Indians. Not only do we have a great starting pitching matchup with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Corey Kluber, but conditions for this contest will favor both of these starters. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s with winds up to 15 mph blowing straight in from right field.
Sabathia started Game 2 in Cleveland and pitched well enough to win, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's now 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts and owns a strong 2.65 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kluber had a clunker in Game 2 opposing Sabathia, giving up 6 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but that only makes me like his chances of throwing well tonight that much more. Kluber is still 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 17 home starts.
UNDER is 15-5-1 in Sabathia's last 21 starts against a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in Klubers last 7 home starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts on 4 days of rest. Take the UNDER!
|10-06-17||Cubs +148 v. Nationals||3-0||Win||148||8 h 51 m||Show|
3* MLB Division Series 'HEAVY HITTER' on Cubs +
I like the value here with the Cubs in Game 1 as a big road dog against the Nationals. The Cubs really turned it on in the 2nd half to take control of the NL Central. They really turned it on down the stretch, going 15-4 in their last 19 games. I like teams that are riding momentum going into the postseason and this stage won't be too much for the defending champs to handle.
I also think the Nationals aren't the same caliber a team with Bryce Harper still working his way back from injury. He played in the final 6 games after missing more than two months and had just 3 hits in 18 at bats (no extra base hits and 6 strikeouts).
Washington has gone just 1-5 in their last 6 playoff home games, while the Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games and 7-3 in Hendricks last 10 starts when he's throwing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Chicago!
|10-03-17||Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5||4-8||Win||100||2 h 30 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Twins OVER
No Analysis on late releases
|09-27-17||Braves v. Mets +104||1-7||Win||104||9 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Mets +
I like the value here with New York in basically a pick'em at home against division rival Atlanta. The Mets showed they aren't going to just lay down with nothing to play for, as they rallied from a 3 run deficit to knock off the Braves 4-3 on Tuesday and I look for them to build on that momentum with another win here.
New York will send out Robert Gsellman, who was sensational two starts ago in Atlanta, limiting the Braves to 0 earned runs (1 unearned) on just 3 hits over 7 innings of a 5-1 win. That was Gsellman's second straight dominant outing, as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Braves back in early June.
We also find a strong system in playing favoring a fade of Atlanta. Road teams off a division loss by 1-run are just 16-36 over the last 5 seasons in games involving two bad teams that have won between 38% and 46% of their games. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mets. Take New York!
|09-26-17||Cubs v. Cardinals -111||7-8||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
3* Cubs/Cardinals MLB 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cardinals -
I like the value here with St Louis as a short home division favorite against the Cubs on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener yesterday in blowout fashion and that's not going to sit well with the Cardinals. The key here is with that win the Cubs have all but won the NL Central, as they need just 1 more win or Brewers loss to secure the top spot in the division.
I look for the Cubs to have a tough time here against the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez, who has been at his best at home this season and that includes two home starts against the Cubs. Martinez owns a 3.18 ER and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts and allowed just 3 runs over 14 innings in his two home outings against the Cubs.
Even with yesterday's loss the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record and are 16-6 in their last 22 during Game 2 of a series. They are also 11-4 in Martinez's last 15 starts after giving up 5+ runs in their last game. Take St Louis!
|09-25-17||Royals v. Yankees -165||3-11||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
4* MLB Early Bird 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Yankees -
New York needs a win here to clinch home field for the Wild Card game and I expect them to do just that against the struggling Royals who are all but out of the playoff picture. Tough spot here for KC, as this is a make-up game, which has them taking a quick flight from Chicago, where they concluded a series yesterday, to New York for an early game. I just don't see the Royals being on of their game here.
I also like the pitching matchup for the Yankees. New York sends out C.C. Sabathia, who is coming off a strong showing at home last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings of work. Sabathia also has a strong track record against the Royals with a 3.11 ERA in his career. He's faced them once this season and allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings.
KC counters with Jake Junis, who has a not so great 4.70 ERA in 8 road starts. While Junis pitched well in his last outing, he's just 1-4 against the money line following a Quality Start. KC is also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 series openers and 3-9 in their last 12 road games games against a team with a winning record! Take New York!
|09-23-17||Cubs v. Brewers +125||3-4||Win||125||9 h 31 m||Show|
3* MLB Situational 'HEAVY HITTER' on Brewers +
I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. The Brewers have lost the first two in this huge 4-game series in extra innings and simply can't afford to lose here. While it's now a long-shot they catch Chicago for the NL Central title, they are now 2-back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot.
Milwaukee will send out Brent Suter, who is coming off a strong start at Pittsburgh, where he tossed 5 shutout innings. He's now in his 4th start back from the DL and will have that pitch count up today to where he can be even more effective.
Good spot to fade the Cubs, who are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games off 2 straight road wins over a division rival. It's also a good situation to fade Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is a mere 3-8 in his last 11 day starts. Take Milwaukee!
|09-22-17||Red Sox -130 v. Reds||5-4||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'DESTROYER' on Red Sox -
I like the value here with Boston as a short road favorite against the Reds. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot Wednesday, but still have a lot of work to do with a mere 3-game lead against the Yankees for the AL East title. This is a big time series for Boston and I at least expect them to secure a win in the opener.
Red Sox come in playing some of their best baseball, as they are 11-3 over their last and 6-1 in their last 7. They send out Rick Porcello, who has had one of the least memorable seasons for a reigning Cy Young winner. Porcello is a miserable 10-17 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts. However, he's been much better in the 2nd half, as he owns a 3.76 ERA in his last 14 starts, giving up 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 outings.
Cincinnati owns the worst interleague record of any club and are just 5-12 against the AL this season. The Reds are just 4-12 in their last 16 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 10-1 in Porcello's last 11 interleague starts, 6-1 in their last 7 against at team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 series openers. Take Boston!
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