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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-16-19||Browns v. Jets +3||Top||23-3||Loss||-110||122 h 37 m||Show|
5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110
I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground.
That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York!
|09-15-19||Bears v. Broncos +3||16-14||Win||100||52 h 0 m||Show|
3* NFL - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Broncos +3 -125
The public is all over the Bears as a small road favorite, but I really like Denver to knock off Chicago at home in Week 2. I get the Broncos didn't look great in that Week 1 loss at Oakland, but I think they were surprised with how well the Raiders played. I think Denver might have thought that was going to be a lot easier after AB was released.
Denver is also a very difficult place to play and a lot of these Bears players aren't use to the thin air of Mile High. I think that impacts the Bears defense and that Chicago offense looked way out of sync in Week 1 against Green Bay. Hard to win on the road if you can't score. Take Denver!
|09-15-19||Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5||Top||28-10||Loss||-110||93 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110
Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama.
They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them.
Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma v. UCLA +24.5||48-14||Loss||-110||32 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Prime Time PUBLIC SHOCKER on UCLA +24½ -110
No way the public is going to want anything to do with UCLA against Oklahoma. The books know this and I think we are getting exceptional value here because of it. I think the Bruins aren't just going to cover, but give the Sooners a bit of a scare.
It's not easy for midwest teams to go out west and play in a different time zone. I also think it could be hard for Oklahoma to take this UCLA team seriously after watching them start out 0-2 with losses to Cincinnati and San Diego State. More so how bad the offense has looked. With the way they are scoring, it will be hard for them to see the Bruins keeping it close.
The thing is, both Cincinnati and San Diego State are two of the better Group of 5 teams in the country. They are also two teams built around their defense. Oklahoma is trying to get better on defense, but I don't think they are quite there. Chip Kelly is too good an offensive coach to not get that offense producing.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win by 20+ points. Take UCLA!
|09-14-19||Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5||Top||40-21||Loss||-105||103 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105
Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog.
Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan.
Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa!
|09-14-19||USC v. BYU +4||27-30||Win||100||69 h 0 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Big Money HEAVY HITTER on BYU +4 -105
BYU is worth a look here as a home dog against the Trojans. It didn't take long for USC to go from being undervalued to overvalued. While the Trojans are off a 45-20 beating of Stanford, they did just lose their starting QB in JT Daniels to a season-ending injury. Not to mention the Stanford team they beat didn't have K.J. Costello.
Kedon Slovis' big day against the Cardinal is a big reason why people are back on the USC bandwagon. He lit up Stanford's defense for 377 yards and 3 scores. It was a great game, but he was also just 6 of 8 for 57 yards and a pick in a half against Fresno State.
I think Slovis is going to struggle to come anywhere close to those numbers against Stanford in his first true road game. BYU's defense is no pushover and are definitely battle tested having opened up the season against Utah and Tennessee.
Trojans are just 7-15 ATS under head coach Clay Helton as a favorite, 1-8 ATS last 9 non-conference matchups and 3-9-1 ATS last 13 on the road. Take BYU!
|09-14-19||Maryland v. Temple +7.5||17-20||Win||100||99 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Temple +7½ -110
Now is the perfect time to fade Maryland. The public was against the Terps last week at home against a ranked Syracuse team. Maryland went on to win 63-20 and now everyone is on the Terps. Even the polls jumped on board and put this team at No. 21 in the country.
I'm not saying Maryland isn't better than expected, but they should be laying this kind of a number on the road against a good program like Temple. The Owls are in the first year under Rod Carey, who came over after a successful stint at Northern Illinois. Carey took over a team that brought back 14 starters from a team that won 8 games.
I also think people underestimate the value of an early bye. Temple basically got to play an exhibition against Bucknell in Week 1 and then spend two weeks fixing what needed fixed. There's also going to be a little extra fire with Temple being a home dog and hearing all this hype around this Maryland team. Take the Owls!
|09-14-19||Ohio State v. Indiana +17||51-10||Loss||-105||65 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +17 -105
I just can't pass up Indiana at this price at home against the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers have been a thorn in the side of Ohio State for years now. Something that might surprise a lot of people given the talent gap between the two and the fact that Ohio State has won the last 24 meetings.
Indiana has covered 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only game they didn't cover they should have. Hoosiers ended up losing 49-21 as a 20-point dog in 2017, despite having a 21-20 lead in the 2nd half!
Indiana is also always gonna be undervalued as long as they are in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. No one is ever picking this team to win the East. Thing is, Tom Allen has really got them competitive and finally made them respectable on the defensive side of the ball.
I think that defense could give Fields and the Buckeyes offense some problems here, as they are going to feed off the energy of the home fans. I also think Hoosiers QB Michael Penix is on his way to being a star in this league. Take Indiana!
|09-13-19||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5||18-24||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UNC/WF Friday Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Wake Forest -2½ -110
It's been quite a start for the Tar Heels in the first year with Mack Brown back as head coach. UNC knocked off South Carolina 24-20 as a 11.5-point underdog in Week 1 and then upset Miami 28-25 as a 4-point home dog in Week 2. I believe it has the Tar Heels overvalued here as a mere 2.5-point road dog against the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest has started out 2-0 and this looks like one of the better teams they have had under Dave Clawson. I really like junior QB Jamie Newman and he's got some talented wide outs at his disposal. Newman will take on a Tar Heels secondary that will be without starting corner Patrice Rene.
As for the UNC offene, it's been a great start for true freshman QB Sam Howell, but I could see him struggling here. This is the first true road game for the Tar Heels and Howell will have to make do without starting center Nick Polino. Take Wake Forest!
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-109||60 h 40 m||Show|
5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109
I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers.
The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year.
I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play.
No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate.
Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina!
|09-09-19||Texans +7 v. Saints||Top||28-30||Win||100||133 h 33 m||Show|
5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106
I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team.
It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype.
I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006).
The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||Top||3-33||Loss||-110||130 h 8 m||Show|
5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110
I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good.
I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season.
Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh!
|09-08-19||Titans +6 v. Browns||43-13||Win||100||123 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans +6 -110
There's a ton of hype around Cleveland this year and I think it has them a bit overvalued here in Week 1 against the Titans. Tennessee doesn't wow you, but they are modeling themselves after the Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel.
Much like when Belichick first put NE on the map, the strength of the Titans is their defense. Tennessee ranked 8th in total defense (333.4 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (18.9 ppg) last year. They also figure to once again have one of the leagues best run games behind Derrick Henry. Ball control and ball security is what I think of with Tennessee.
I think the Titans can play keep away enough to disrupt the rhythm of the Browns and offense. I think this is going to be a one-score game and wouldn't be shocked if the Titans pulled off the upset. Take Tennessee!
|09-08-19||Chiefs v. Jaguars +4||40-26||Loss||-110||102 h 24 m||Show|
3* NFL - Chiefs/Jaguars ATS DESTROYER on Jaguars +4 -110
There's all kinds of hype around this Kansas City team and the offensive firepower they figure to have behind reigning MVP Pat Mahomes. No question the Chiefs will be one of the top scoring teams in 2019, but this Jacksonville defense is no joke.
I think the Jaguars added another stud on this side of the ball in Josh Allen. This might be the best defense in the league. They were No. 2 in the NFL against the pass last year. While they lost 30-14 at KC last year, they actually held Mahomes without a TD pass and intercepted him twice. Problem for the Jags is Blake Bortles and the offense had 5 turnovers.
No more Bortles to screw things up for the Jags, as they went out and signed Nick Foles to a big deal. While I don't know if Foles will ever be as good as that playoff run a couple years back, there's no question he's an upgrade over Bortles. Chiefs defense may be improved, but it's still middle of the pack at best. I think the Jags win this one. Take Jacksonville!
|09-07-19||Tulsa -6 v. San Jose State||34-16||Win||100||87 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Tulsa -6 -110
I really like this spot for the Golden Hurricane. I look for Tulsa to have zero problem securing a win and cover at San Jose State on Saturday.
Tulsa lost their opener 28-7 at Michigan State, but that was to be expected. Golden Hurricane covered in the loss as a 24-point dog. I'm not worried about the fact that they had just 7 points and 80 total yards. That's not a good Spartans defense, it's elite this year.
At the same time the Tulsa defense more than held their own against Michigan State, limiting them to just 303 yards and 2.7 yards/carry on the ground. Keep in mind Tulsa brought back 8 starters from a defense that went from giving up 37.5 in 2017 to allowing just 29.6 ppg last year.
San Jose State beat Northern Colorado 35-18 and while they won by 17, it was too close for comfort against a FCS opponent. Northern Colorado was just 2-9 last year and didn't play a single FBS team. Spartans are now 1-7 ATS last 8 non-conference.
Golden Hurricane have covered 12 of their last 15 vs a team with a winning record and are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Tulsa!
|09-07-19||Nevada +24.5 v. Oregon||Top||6-77||Loss||-110||106 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Nevada +24½ -110
Even though the Ducks came up short in their Week 1 loss at Auburn, I think a lot of people were impressed with how well Oregon hung around with the Tigers. This is also a team that was getting a ton of hype preseason because of quarterback Justin Herbert.
I believe it has the Ducks way overvalued here at home against Nevada. This far from an easy spot for Oregon, who still has to be licking their wounds from that meltdown against Auburn. The Ducks led 21-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and gave up the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a 26-yard pass by a true freshmen.
Nevada on the other hand comes in off a thrilling 34-31 win at home over Purdue. The Wolf Pack trailed 31-14 in the 2nd half. They tied it at 31-31 with less than a minute to play and won the game on a 56-yard field on the last play of the game.
I don't think Nevada is capable of winning this game on the road, but I do think the Wolf Pack have the offensive fire-power to easily cover the number here. Take Nevada +24.5!
|09-07-19||Arkansas +7 v. Ole Miss||17-31||Loss||-110||85 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Ole Miss/Ark SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas +7 -110
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against the Rebels. I think Arkansas is a team flying under the radar after going just 2-10 in 2019. This is now year two under head coach Chad Morris and I expect big improvement. We saw it as his last job (SMU).
His first year Mustangs were just 2-10 SU. Next year they were 5-7, but most importantly a dominant 8-4 ATS (5-1 ATS on the road). I think this Arkansas team is going to be a similar covering machine.
I know the Razorbacks didn't look great in their win over Portland State in Week 1, but I think a lot of that was simply knowing they were the superior team and having their conference opener on deck. Neither of their transfer QBs played great in Ben Hicks and Nick Starkel, but I'm confident in their ability.
As for Ole Miss, they played Memphis tough on the road, but came up painfully short in a 15-10 loss. That's not an easy kind of loss to bounce back from. They were also lucky for it to be that close. Memphis outgained them 364 to 173. Ole Miss had fewer than 100 yards both passing and rushing. No way should this team be laying more than a field goal at home against another SEC team. Take Arkansas!
|09-07-19||Central Florida -9.5 v. Florida Atlantic||48-14||Win||100||84 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Central Florida -9½ -110
I look for UCF to have no problem here beating FAU by at least two touchdowns. I think the Owls are getting a little too much love here after covering a big number at Ohio State last week. FAU only had 228 total yards in that game and were fortunate to only lose by just 24 after falling behind 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game.
I like Lane Kiffin and that team should be competitive in C-USA, but there's a much bigger gap in talent between FAU and UCF than the number here would suggest. While the Knights are ranked No. 18, it doesn't feel like there's as much hype with this year's team. No one is going to get excited about them beating Florida A&M 62-0.
I just think they got too much offense for the Owls to keep it close. No Mckenzie Milton, no problem. The duo of Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and true freshman Dillon Gabriel threw for 295 yards and 5 scores.
These two teams played last year at Central Florida. The Knights won that contest 56-36. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the final score was something similar.
FAU is now just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference games and 0-5 ATS last 5 games in the month of September. Knights are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 4-1 last 5 vs a team from C-USA. Take UCF!
|09-07-19||Texas A&M v. Clemson -17||10-24||Loss||-105||56 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/Clemson BIG GAME ATS WINNER on Clemson -17 -105
The betting public is all over the Aggies here. The narrative going into this one is how Texas A&M played Clemson better than anyone last year and will want revenge. The Aggies also looked good in their 41-7 win over Texas State last week.
On the Tigers side of things, they made easy work of Georgia Tech with a 52-14 win, but Trevor Lawrence didn't play well. Lawrence had 2 picks and was just 13 of 23 for 168 yards. I'm not reading anything into that. No way was Clemson the least bit threatened by the Yellow Jackets.
I think the Tigers simply went through the motions and were trying to be as conservative as they could offensively to not put too much on tape for the Aggies. I just think this is an elite offense and will have zero problem moving the ball against Texas A&M.
One thing people have to remember with last year's close call, is that was in College Station. Texas A&M was just 1-3 on the road last year and are just 18-38 ATS last 56 as a road dog and 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 35+ ppg the previous year and were up by 17 or more at the half in their last game are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Clemson -17!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State -10.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-106||83 h 58 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - 'Group of 5' Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State -10½ -106
I like this Marshall team and could see them being a force in Conference USA this year, but I think Boise State is on a different level. I not only think the Broncos win at home Friday night over the Thundering Herd, I think they do so with ease.
You never really know what you are going to get from a true freshman quarterback until they play in a game. I don't think there's many concerns lingering for Boise State's Hank Bachmeier. The true freshmen threw for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing in Week 1 and did it on the road against a Power 5 opponent in FSU. Even more impressive is he guided his team back from a 31-13 deficit.
Marshall only gave up 21.8 ppg and 339 ypg, but a lot of that is playing in C-USA. They gave up 37 points and 502 yards to NC State and 41 points and 454 yards to Va Tech. I think Boise will have no problem scoring 35+ here and I like the Broncos defense to keep Marshall to 20 or fewer, giving us plenty of breathing room to cash in a cover.
Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after giving up 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game and are 11-2 ATS last 13 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Boise State!
|09-02-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5||35-17||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Notre Dame/Louisville ATS DESTROYER on Louisville +18½ -110
I think it's worth a shot to back the Cardinals as a three score dog against Notre Dame. While the Irish will have Ian Book back from last year's 12-1 playoff team, the defense loses a lot.
Notre Dame has to replace 3 NFL draft picks on that side of the ball and if not for the defense they would have never sniffed the playoffs. The Irish had 5 wins last year where they failed to score 25 or more points. They were a perfect 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Thats a big arrow pointing for regression in 2019.
The other big thing is I think people are sleeping on Louisville. I absolutely loved the hire of Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State. He brought over his DC,Bryan Brown and I think he does wonders here with the Cardinals defense.
The big thing I think people are overlooking is that the team quit on head coach Bobby Petrino, which is why the numbers were so bad across the board for this team. A lot more talent on the roster than you think and they got 16 returning starters. Take Louisville!
|09-01-19||Houston v. Oklahoma -21.5||Top||31-49||Loss||-115||152 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Houston/Oklahoma ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma -21½ -115
I got no problem laying the points with Oklahoma. I think the betting public is going to be all over Houston given the hype around this team with Dana Holgorsen leaving West Virginia to take over. Holgorsen is known for his ability to get a lot out of the QB position and the Cougars have a good one in D'Eriq King.
However, Houston is out-classed big time in this one. I get Baker Mayfield and Kylar Murray were big time talents, but their success is 100% a result of Lincoln Riley's brilliant offensive mind. No reason not to expect this offense to be potent with Jalen Hurts running the show.
I also think Oklahoma's defense will be greatly improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Houston on the other hand lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. Sooners are going to score at will and I just don't see Houston being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!
|08-31-19||SMU v. Arkansas State -2||37-30||Loss||-109||101 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas State -2 -109
I think this is a great price to back Arkansas State at home against SMU. I think a lot of people see a team from the Sun Belt as a small favorite against a team from a bigger conference and look to take the other side.
This is a really talented Red Wolves team behind a underrated head coach in Blake Anderson. Last year they won 8-games with just 12 starters back, so no concern with only 13 starters returning in 2019. The defense should be really good and that's the difference maker here.
SMU does not have a great defense. They have allowed 35+ ppg each of the last 5 seasons. I just think Arkansas State will be able to get more stops and thus create some separation. SMU is also a team you want to fade away from home. Mustangs are just 2-8 last 10 ATS on the road. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 non-conference and 0-5 ATS last 5 games played in August. Take Arkansas State!
|08-31-19||Ball State +17 v. Indiana||24-34||Win||100||123 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ball State +17 +100
Ball State is coming off a 4-8 campaign and aren't being given much of a shot at improving after starting quarterback Riley Neal and leading rusher Justin Gilbert both transferred to Power 5 programs.
It think it has the Cardinals way undervalued coming into 2019. Even with the losses of Neal and Gilbert, Ball State will be one of the most experienced teams in the country this year. They still bring back 17 starters and 55 lettermen.
This team was really hurt by injuries, which led to a poor finish. Ball State went on the road and only lost by a final score of 24-16 at Notre Dame, who finished the year 12-0 and made the playoffs. You don't do that without some talent. I also think there was a good chance that both Gilbert and Neal were going to lose their jobs.
Indiana has been competitive under Tom Allen, but have also gone just 5-7 in each of his first two years. The Hoosiers did beat Ball State at home by 28 last year, but only outgained the Cardinals by a little more than 100 yards.
This year the game is on a neutral site at Lucas Oil Stadium. I'll take the points with the underrated dog in this in-state rivalry. Cardinals have covered 6 of the last 7 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Ball State!
|08-31-19||Ole Miss +6.5 v. Memphis||Top||10-15||Win||100||123 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +6½ -110
I think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and wonder what the heck were the books thinking making Ole Miss a dog against a non-Power 5 opponent. Especially one as talented as the Rebels.
Ole Miss struggled in SEC play last year, but this team went 4-0 in non-conference. The most impressive non-conference win came in Week 1, as they rolled Texas Tech 47-27 as a 2-point dog.
I know the record doesn't exactly reflect it, but there's a ton of talent on this Ole Miss roster and I love the two new coordinators they brought in to get the most of the talent on hand. Rich Rodriguez is new OC and Mike MacIntyre is the new DC. Two guys maybe didn't have the best run as head coaches, but are coaching what they know best in Oxford.
Not to take anything away from Memphis, who has been one of the better Group of 5 programs the last 5 years, but I think they are outclassed. Keep in mind they got annihilated 65-33 by Missouri out of the SEC last year. I just don't see the Tigers winning here by a touchdown and will certainly have some money line action on the Rebels. Take Ole Miss!
|08-31-19||Boise State +5.5 v. Florida State||36-31||Win||100||93 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Situational ATS SHOCKER on Boise State +5½ -109
Willie Taggart's first season at Florida State was a disaster from the start. The Seminoles who were ranked in the Top 20 to start the year, finished 5-7 and for the first time in forever they didn't make a bowl.
No disrespect to Taggart, but I don't see him being on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. It reminds me a lot of when Texas moved on from Mac Brown and people assumed Charlie Strong would get them back on track.
I just have a lot more trust in Boise State to start the season. The Broncos lose a great quarterback in Brett Rypien, but they also add in their highest recruited QB in school history in Hank Bachmeier. They also have a top tier defense that like FSU has NFL talent on that side of the ball.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Broncos won this game outright. Either way they are 11-2 ATS in the 13 games they have been listed as a dog under head coach Bryan Harsin. Take Boise State!
|08-30-19||Rice +23.5 v. Army||Top||7-14||Win||100||105 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Friday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Rice +23½ -104
Not only is Army being overvalued coming off their 11-win season in 2018, but this also an awful spot for a blowout.
The Black Knights have been a force under Jeff Monkin the last few years. They are 29-10 the last 3 seasons. Rice has 19 wins over the last 5 with a mere 5-31 mark the last 3 seasons. Easy to see how we get an inflated number.
Rice is now in year two under head coach Mike Bloomgren and I look for the former Stanford OC to have the Owls improved across the board in 2019. Getting all this extra time to prepare for the triple-option is huge.
As for the bad spot, no way does Army not look ahead to next week's game at Michigan. They have to be thinking the less they can put on tape for the Wolverines the better and it should also lead to starters getting pulled a little earlier in the 2nd half if things do get out of hand, opening up for a backdoor cover. Either way I like the Owls to keep this within the number. Take Rice!
|08-29-19||Florida International v. Tulane -2||14-42||Win||100||51 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Tulane -2 -103
Love the value here with Tulane as a small home favorite against the Panthers. While I got a lot of respect for Butch Davis and what he's doing at FIU, there's a definite talent gap here.
I also think the Green Wave are in a lot better spot than people realise. Tulane has really come on strong under current head coach Willie Fritz. He took over a team that was simply not competitive and has guided them from 4 to 5 to 7 wins the last 3 years. They made only their second bowl game since 2002 last year.
All signs point to the 2019 Green Wave being the best team yet under Fritz. That triple-option is tough to prepare for and they are adding a little more up-tempo to that this year. The defense is one of the better units in a pretty strong American Athletic Conference.
I look for Tulane to really dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and when you add in home field advantage, this is no-brainer. Take Tulane -2!
|08-29-19||UCLA v. Cincinnati -2.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||34 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - No Limit Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2½ -105
I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati laying less than a field goal at home. These two met in last year's season opener and the Bearcats won outright 26-17 as a 14-point dog.
While UCLA will be improved in year two under Chip Kelly, I still think they are a year or two away recruiting wise before he can really get this program back near the top of the Pac-12. Let's also not forget that Luke Fickell is now in year 3 at Cincinnati and this is the year it typically all comes together for new coaches.
Fickell has 14 returning starters, including a really talented sophomore quarterback in Desmond Ridders. The offense is going to be good and there are still major concerns with UCLA's defense. Fickell, who was the DC at Ohio State will have the defense ready. Bearcats went from allowing 31.8 ppg in his first year to only giving up 17.2 ppg. They also shaved 100+ yards/game off what they allowed.
You also have to factor in how hard it is to play on the road early in the season, especially the opener. Not to mention that when the Bearcats' put out a decent team, Nippert Stadium turns into one of the more tougher places to play. Take Cincinnati!
|08-24-19||Villanova v. Colgate -4||Top||34-14||Loss||-109||2 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Villanova/Colgate (FCS) TOP PLAY on Colgate -4 -109
Most are going to simply focus on the two FBS matchups between Florida/Miami and Arizona/Hawaii, but the real value on this first Saturday of college football is at the FCS level. I absolutely love Colgate as a small home favorite.
This Raiders team is the real deal. They got a lot of talent back on a defense that was outstanding in 2018. They held 5 different teams scoreless last year. They got back their QB in Grant Breneman (Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year) and ranked #13 in the FCS Poll.
Villanova is being picked to finish in the bottom half of the CAA. They got no shot here of keeping this within a touchdown. Take Colgate!
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||49 h 24 m||Show|
5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams +
I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls.
Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald.
Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted.
I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles!
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-106||51 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +
I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread.
Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly.
The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams -7||22-30||Win||100||34 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL Saturday (Cowboys/Rams) HEAVY HITTER on Rams -
It's been quite a run for these Cowboys since they made the trade for Amari Cooper, but I think they are going to have a very tough time keeping it respectable against LA on Saturday. For me it's all about the matchup.
Dallas has a strong pass rush and is good at stopping the run. That's great against a team like Seattle, who to their own demise ran the ball way too much last week. When the Seahawks were forced to pass they did so with relative ease and I think had they gone to it earlier they would have won.
The Rams aren't going to try to pound the rock against this defense, even with an elite back like Todd Gurley. Sean McVay is too smart and will be quick to attack a very vulnerable Cowboys secondary. Gurley will still get his touches, just more in the passing game.
Another thing with the Dallas defense is they weren't nearly as good on the road. Cowboys allowed only 327 ypg on the season, yet gave up 368 ypg on the road, which tells you how different the story was for this defense depending on the venue.
I also think people see that the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and assume the Cowboys will be able to run the ball with ease. A lot of that has to do with LA playing a bunch of games where they had big leads and were playing more a prevent defense, which will give up big yards on the ground. Donald and Suh will be difference makers and I don't buy for a second that Dak Prescott can have the kind of game to go score for score with the Rams. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||13-31||Win||100||30 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL Saturday (Colts/Chiefs) VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -
I really like the value here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home against the Colts. Even though the Chiefs arguably have the best quarterback in the league and the likely MVP, the public is on Andrew Luck and Indy in this one.
While the Chiefs missed out on a couple opportunities to clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in the final few weeks, it may have been for the best. I would have been a lot more concerned with this team if they had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 15 and had the last couple weeks mean nothing and them basically going into this game not having played a meaningful game in almost a month.
The bottom line is they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and while Andy Reid and the Chiefs don't have the best postseason history, none of that matters with No. 15 at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is special and the inability to score has been the biggest downfall in a lot of recent home losses for KC.
Last year they were held to 21 points and shutout in the 2nd half of a 22-21 loss and in 2016 they fell 18-16 to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Scoring won't be a problem. The Chiefs at least 26 points in every game and as bad as the defense has been on paper, there's no debate that they are a completely different defense at home.
I know the Chiefs didn't know exactly who they would face, but Andy Reid with multiple weeks to prepare for a game has been nearly unbeatable. I just think all the factors here heavily favor not just a KC win, but a comfortable victory on Saturday. Take Kansas City!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||16-44||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* Clemson/Alabama ATS Winner on Clemson +
I'm not convinced Alabama is the better team in this matchup. I think Clemson is every bit on the same level as the Crimson Tide. However, I think the public perception all season has been this Alabama team is the best Nick Saban has fielded since he took over and there's no team that can hang with them.
I think that's definitely playing into this inflated number that the Crimson Tide are being asked to lay. This is now the 4th straight time that these two teams have met i the playoffs. While Alabama is 2-1 SU, Clemson is 2-1 ATS.
Not only do I see a ton of value with Clemson getting almost a touchdown, I like how the Tigers matchup with Alabama. I think this game will come down to which defense can impose it's will the most and I think with that defensive line of the Tigers, they will be the ones who control this game. Take Clemson!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||78 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -
This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards.
The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games.
I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore!
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2 v. Cowboys||22-24||Push||0||61 h 58 m||Show|
4* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +
I really like Seattle to go into Dallas and get a win, as I think they are the better team. I just think the Seahawks have been flying way under the radar. This is a team that lost a lot of big names on defense and were expected by many to be the 3rd best team in their own division.
Despite having an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson, Seattle has transformed their style of play back to a more physical ground and pound team. The Seahawks led the league in rushing at 160 ypg and with opposing teams having to focus so much on the run, Wilson has a 35-7 TD-INT ratio and his 65.6% completion rate is his best since 2015.
Sure, Dallas is a great story with how they turned around their season after the trade for Amari Cooper. I'm not saying Cooper doesn't make them a better team, I just think they aren't as good as you think. Dallas took advantage of a bad NFC East (5-1 division record).
More than anything, I don't trust Dak Prescott to make the big plays when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. I also think that ability Dallas' defense has of putting pressure on the quarterback is negated with how mobile Wilson is and their ability to run the ball. Take Seattle!
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||23-28||Win||100||419 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +
I just don't see the Buckeyes being that much better than the Huskies. Ohio State is getting all kinds of love because of how they finished the year, absolutely destroying rival Michigan at home to win the Big Ten East and then crushing Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. All of that is great, but it didn't get the Buckeyes into the playoffs.
Playing on New Year's Day is great, but in Columbus their expectation is to win it all every year and they certainly thought this year's team was capable of a championship. I just think this is a bit of a letdown for the Buckeyes. Plus you got all the distractions with Urban Meyer stepping down as head coach.
Even with all that, no one is picking the Huskies to cover, let along win the game. Washington didn't quite live up to the hype this season, but I think they are going to relish the opportunity to play an elite team like the Buckeyes and use it as a measuring stick going into next year. The Huskies have the defense to keep Haskins and that high-powered Ohio State offense in check and this Buckeyes defense has been vulnerable. This is simply too many points. Take Washington!
|01-01-19||LSU v. Central Florida +7.5||Top||40-32||Loss||-105||433 h 20 m||Show|
5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida +
Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences.
This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve.
UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores.
I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF!
|12-31-18||Michigan State +2 v. Oregon||6-7||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF RedBox Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State +
No one wants anything to do with backing this Spartans team with how they struggle to score against a NFL-caliber quarterback in Oregon's Justin Herbert. I believe it's created big time value here with Michigan State.
I think you could argue that the Spartans are the more talented team, have the better coach and play in the tougher conference. The one thing Oregon has an edge in is quarterback. I just don't think it's enough given the matchup.
Michigan State has faced the likes of Trace McSorely, Dwayne Haskins and Shea Patterson in the Big Ten. They aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Ducks. Those that think it will be easy for Oregon to move the ball are wrong.
The key here is while Oregon's defense has improved over the last couple of years, this is a defense that a limited Michigan State offense can have success against. All the players have been hearing is how bad the offense is. I would expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and surprise some people. The most important thing is they should be able to run the football. It might not be pretty, but I'm confident the Spartans win this one outright. Take Michigan State!
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati||31-35||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Military Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Va Tech +
I really like the value here with the Hokies getting a touchdown against the Bearcats. Virginia Tech showed they wanted to be in a bowl game by winning their final two games after a 4-6 start. Few teams were hit harder with injuries this year and not many were as young and inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball.
The month between off to prepare and get guys healthy will pay off big for Bud Foster's defense and I'm confident they will be able to slow down a pretty average Cincinnati offense. The Bearcats only averaged 25.3 ppg on the road. I also think Cincinnati is no where close to as good as people think. They won 10-games, but the schedule couldn't have been much easier. It's also worth noting the Bearcats are a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 bowl games. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-103||53 h 38 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers.
You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend.
While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field.
Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota!
|12-30-18||49ers v. Rams -9.5||32-48||Win||100||53 h 37 m||Show|
3* NFC West PLAY OF THE DAY on Rams -
Even with star running back Todd Gurley not available for this game, I'm confident the Rams are going to not only beat the 49ers at home in Week 17, I think they are going to cruise to blowout win.
This game just means too much to LA. A win here and they get the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. A loss and they could be playing next weekend in the Wild Card round. I think we saw the sense of urgency show up in last week's game agains the Cardinals, which they rolled to a 31-9 win.
As for Gurley not playing. Sure that's a big blow, but with all the attention the Rams passing game gets, there's going to be holes to run the ball. Gurley didn't play against Arizona and they had 269 yards on 41 attempts (6.6 yards/carry). C.J. Anderson came in and put up 167 yards in his first game with the team.
49ers are going to play hard, but that simply won't be enough on the road. They just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take Los Angeles!
|12-30-18||Jaguars +7 v. Texans||3-20||Loss||-115||49 h 12 m||Show|
4* AFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +
I like the value here with Jacksonville getting a touchdown against the Texans. Houston is way overvalued here because the perception is that because they are the only team with something to play for, they will be the only ones that show up for this game.
I think that is exactly why the Jaguars are going to show up here. They would love nothing more than to play spoiler against a division rival. While they can't keep the Texans from making the playoffs, they can knock them out of the top spot in the AFC South.
I also think it's huge that Jacksonville is going back to Blake Bortles. I get he's not very good and likely won't be with the team after this game, but he gives them the best chance to win. If the Jags were throwing in the towel on the season and didn't want to go out with a victory, they wouldn't go back to Bortles.
I also think the Texans aren't nearly as good as what people think. They are only outgaining opponents by 5.9 yards/game and haven't exactly played the toughest of schedules. Despite Jacksonville's poor record, they are still outgaining teams by 4.9 yards/game.
Jags are 8-1 ATS last 9 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams scoring 24 or more points/game and Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the season over the last 3 years. Take Jacksonville!
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -11||3-30||Win||100||364 h 4 m||Show|
4* CFB Playoffs N Dame/Clemson VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -
I got no problem here laying the double-digits with Clemson against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. I think people are sleeping on this Tigers team. They aren't just elite defensively, but they are elite offensively since they put in Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
The suspension of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is getting a lot of publicity and is a big loss, but I don't think it's going to dramatically effect Clemson's ability to slow down the Notre Dame offense. The Tigers still got 3 future NFL draft picks playing in this game on the defensive line and I expect them to make like miserable for Ian Book.
There's also a big amount of skepticism for me when it comes to Notre Dame. It's not that I don't think the Irish are a good team, I just think the cards fell their way this season with so many typically good programs on their schedule having down years. I also just don't trust Brian Kelly and his ability to get his team ready for a big game.
I just don't see Notre Dame being able to keep pace with this Clemson offense. The Irish haven't seen anything even close to what they will see from the Tigers offense. Take Clemson!
|12-28-18||Iowa State +3.5 v. Washington State||26-28||Win||100||327 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Alamo Bowl NO-BRAINER on Iowa State +
I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one, but Washington State is getting love because they come in ranked No. 13 in the country. I get it, but I just think the Cyclones are without a doubt the better team here.
The Pac-12 has been a joke in bowl games and I really question how motivated the Cougars are to play this game. Washington State was a win at home over rival Washington in the finale away from playing for a Pac-12 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. Cougars are also 1-3 in bowl games under head coach Mike Leach and they have been favored in all 4.
Iowa State was a win over Texas away from a spot in the Big 12 title game and have a chance here to reach 9 wins for the first time in almost 40 years. I really like their head coach Matt Campbell and believe they got one of the best kept secrets in the country in quarterback Brock Purdy. Take Iowa State!
|12-28-18||Syracuse +1.5 v. West Virginia||34-18||Win||100||213 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Camping World Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +
The Orange should have no problem taking down West Virginia. The Mountaineers are going to be playing without their best player in star quarterback Will Grier. They are also going to be without their left tackle. The fact that Grier isn't playing, speaks volumes to how little this game means to these players for West Virginia.
Syracuse was one of the surprise teams in the ACC and were clearly motivated to get to a bowl for the first time under head coach Dino Babers. Orange also haven't been to a bowl since 2013. This game means a lot these players and Syracuse now has a massive edge at quarterback with Eric Dungey. West Virginia won't be able to keep pace.
Mountaineers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 bowl games, so clearly this program doesn't value these games like others. Take Syracuse in what should be a blowout!
|12-27-18||Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Baylor||38-45||Loss||-105||321 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Texas Bowl ATS DESTROYER on Vanderbilt -
I think we are getting some really good value here on the Commodores as a small favorite against the Bears. I don't think there's any question here who the better team is. Baylor is a great story going from winning 1-game last year to making a bowl, but they really didn't beat anyone. Their two best wins were at home against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech late in the year.
The win over the Cowboys came in a perfect spot, as OK State was off a thrilling 38-35 win over then No. 6 Texas and had rival Oklahoma on deck. The win over the Red Raiders came in the finale and Texas Tech closed out the season 5 straight losses and it looked like they threw in the towel after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma and Texas.
Vanderbilt gets overlooked because they are considered one of the worst programs in the SEC, but this team is a lot better than it gets credit for. They won 3 of their final 4 just to make a bowl and haven't won a bowl game since 2013 (only second bowl trip in the last 5 years). They are also the much more physical team and should dominate the line of scrimmage here on both sides of the ball. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4||3-35||Win||100||299 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pinstripe Bowl ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin +
There's a lot to like about the Badgers as a dog here against the Hurricanes. It's amazing that despite how disappointing a season Miami has had, they are still overvalued. If it wasn't for Pitt having already locked up the ACC Coastal and resting guys for the ACC title game, Miami likely would have finished the year 1-5 with their only win against a banged up Virginia Tech team.
I also just think there's a clear lack of motivation here by Miami. You got starting quarterback N'Kosi Perry being benched for Malik Rosier. All-American defensive tackle Gerald Willis is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
I really think the loss of Willis is going overlooked, as his absence is going to have a huge impact on this game. Wisconsin is a running team and have one of the best backs in the country in Jonathan Taylor. Willis wasn't just an elite talent, but he made all the guys around him better because of all the attention he was given. I just don't see the Hurricanes being able to slow this Badgers offense down.
Lastly, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is a perfect 3-0 in bowl games with the Badgers, including a 34-24 win over Miami in last year's Orange Bowl. Take Wisconsin!
|12-24-18||Broncos v. Raiders +3||14-27||Win||100||81 h 50 m||Show|
4* MNF AFC WEST GAME OF THE WEEK on Raiders +
I really like the value here with Oakland getting points. This is going to be a really tough game for the Broncos to get up for. Denver just had their playoff hopes put to rest in a crushing 17-16 home loss to the Browns in Week 15.
I just think it's asking a lot for them to show up and play their best on the road against a team as bad as Oakland. Not to mention they can't exactly be thrilled with being the only team that will be away from home on Christmas Eve.
The here to backing Oakland is we have seen this team to continue to play hard down the stretch. I'm pretty confident Jon Gruden will have the troops fired up for a division rival on Monday Night Football.
Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 vs a team with a losing record, 3-12 ATS last 15 off a game where they didn't cover and 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 on MNF. Home team in the series is 4-1 last 5. Take Oakland!
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints -5.5||28-31||Loss||-110||53 h 1 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Saints -
I think now is the ideal time to jump on New Orleans. While the Saints are 2-1 in their last 3 games, this team hasn't had the same look to it. They had their long winning streak snapped in a 13-10 loss at Dallas. They had to rally from double-digits to beat Tampa Bay on the road and then squeaked out a 12-9 win at Carolina.
That was just a really tough stretch for New Orleans. Their loss against Dallas was their third game in a span of just 12 days. They didn't get a breather after that, as they had to play their next two on the road. I think playing at home is going to bring the best out of this team and few teams have stepped up their game better than the Saints at home.
New Orleans is 25-5 ATS in their last 30 home games vs a team with a winning road record (usually top teams are the only ones who win more than they lose away from home). Steelers are off a win over New England at home, but only managed to score 17 points and will not have James Conner. They could also be without wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Saints are playing lights out defensively and I just don't see Big Ben with how he struggles on the road, keeping pace with Brees and company. Take New Orleans!
|12-23-18||Packers v. Jets +2.5||44-38||Loss||-115||146 h 6 m||Show|
4* NFL Jets/Packers ATS Winner on Jets +
Green Bay shouldn't be a favorite on the road against New York and the books have set the total way too high.
The Packers lost 24-17 at Chicago last week. A game if they had won, would have put them in a position to still have a shot at the playoffs. Now these last two games mean absolutely nothing and that can't be an easy pill to swallow when you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback. It's Super Bowl or bust with that kind of talent behind center.
I know Rodgers is playing and the Packers are saying all the right things, like they are going to give these last two their best shot, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think the only thing on the mind for a lot of these players is getting this game over with so they can get home to their families for Christmas.
The Jets also don't have anything to play for, but that was kind of to be expected with a rookie quarterback. There's plenty of incentive for New York to try and build some momentum for next year in these final few games. They certainly have been playing hard of late. They really should be riding a 3-game winning steak. They had a 13-point 2nd half lead in a 4-point loss to the Titans, beat Buffalo 27-23 a couple weeks back and last week gave the Texans all they could handle.
I just think this is a great spot for the Jets to get a win at home in what is likely going to be an ugly grind it out kind of game. Keep in mind that even with Rodgers the Packers offense has struggled, scoring 17 in 3 of their last 4.
Jets are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 home games after playing their previous game at home and a 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games when coming off a home loss. UNDER is 6-2 in the Packers last 8 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take New York & UNDER!
|12-23-18||Vikings v. Lions +6||Top||27-9||Loss||-102||51 h 37 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy.
I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason.
Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD.
Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit!
|12-23-18||Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins||17-7||Win||100||50 h 36 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +
There's no question the Jags have struggled to come to terms with the disappointment of how this season went, but I think losing at home to a Redskins team that was decimated with injuries and had Josh Johnson at quarter will serve as a wake-up call and we will get a big effort here on the road against a team from their same home state.
Miami shouldn't be laying more than a field goal here. The Dolphins are coming off an ugly 41-17 loss to the Vikings, where they gave up 220 yards rushing. The perception here is that Miami is still fighting, but the reality is they got no chance and they know it. I like Jacksonville to win this one outright.
We also have a great system in play backing a Jaguars cover. Road teams in the month of December are 46-17 (73%)ATS when they come in having failed to cover 3 out of their last 4 games.
Adding to this is a system in play going against the Dolphins. Home teams who have given up 25 or more points in back-to-back games are a mere 19-44 (30%) ATS when facing a team coming off a loss by 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville!
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||31-14||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* Hawaii Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on LA Tech +
I thing the books have completely missed the mark in this one. Hawaii was a great story and got a lot of press early on with their 6-1 start to the season. At the time it looked like they had beat some decent teams, but that turned out to not be the case.
The competition picked up and they went just 2-4 over their final 6 games. Note that all 4 losses came by at least 18 points with a couple that were well over 30. Louisiana Tech is a lot better than their 7-5 record and without a doubt played the tougher schedule and looked better against the better competition they faced.
For me this comes down to defense. Bulldogs are simply going to have the easier time moving the ball. Hawaii gives up on average 35.4 ppg and 439 ypg. They allow on average 10 points/game and 70 yards/game more than what their opponent averages. They give up 5.0 yards/carry vs the run and 8.3 yards/pass attempt.
Louisiana Tech only allowed 23.7 ppg and held their opponents under their season averages for the year. I'm not saying the Bulldogs will shutdown Hawaii and that high-flying passing attack. They will simply be able to get enough stops to win here comfortably. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers -4||22-10||Loss||-109||33 h 57 m||Show|
4* Ravens/Chargers NFL ATS NO-BRAINER on Chargers -
I just think there's a lot of value here with the Chargers only laying 4-points at home against the Ravens. Los Angeles is coming off an impressive 29-28 win at Kansas City and I think most would agree that the Chiefs and Chargers are the class of the AFC right now. Ravens were a 6.5-point dog at KC a couple weeks back and should be at least that here.
Baltimore has won 4 of 5 since turning to Lamar Jackson and are putting up ridiculous rushing numbers during this stretch. What is getting overlooked is the poor defenses (Bengals, Raiders, Falcons, Chiefs & Bucs) they have played during this stretch.
Chargers have held 3 of their previous 4 opponents to 65 or fewer rushing yards. While they likely give up a 100+ here, simply because of how much Baltimore runs and the QB being a big part of the running game, I think they can really create some negative plays early and force Jackson into a lot more 3rd and long situations. As good as Jackson has been running, he's got a long way to go with his arm.
Baltimore has a good defense, but Philip Rivers is playing out of his mind right now and great offense typically beats great defense, especially when the high-powered offense is at home. I just don't see the Ravens being able to keep this within a touchdown. Take Los Angeles!
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +2.5||32-42||Win||100||180 h 20 m||Show|
3* Dollar General Bowl Vegas DESTROYER on Troy +
I think there's a ton of value here with the Trojans at basically a pick'em and this game going UNDER the total set here by the books.
Buffalo suffered a crushing 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, despite having a 29-10 lead at the half. That loss will be a tough one for the Bulls to bounce back from and the even bigger thing is the MAC simply wasn't that good. We already saw Northern Illinois get rolled in their bowl game against UAB.
Troy won at Nebraska and were one of the best bets in the country this year with a 8-3 ATS mark. A big reason for that is their defense, which only gave up 21.2 ppg. I think they have no problem slowing down the high-powered attack of Buffalo.
The Bulls do have a good defense, so I'm expecting Troy to go off, which is why I think there's a big time correlation here with the Trojans and the UNDER
Troy is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 games overall and 42-20-2 ATS last 64 vs a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-18 ATS last 24 off a conference loss by 7 or less and 0-5 ATS last 5 on a neutral site.
UNDER is 10-4 in Buffalo's last 14 off a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a conference loss. UNDER is also 12-4-1 in Trojans last 17 games played on fieldturf. Take Troy & UNDER!
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-100||110 h 37 m||Show|
4* Frisco Bowl Vegas NO-BRAINER on San Diego State +
No way should the Aztecs be getting points against a team from the MAC. I get San Diego State wasn't as good as they have been and closed out the year losing 4 of their last 5, they are still the better team in this fight and I like the fact that they are a dog, as that only adds motivation.
What gets overlooked with San Diego State's poor finish is the injuries this team had to deal with on offense and that 3 of the last 4 losses were by 4-points or less. This wasn't far off from another 10-win team under Rocky Long. They are healthy and matchup extremely well with the Bobcats.
I'm also not convinced Ohio is as good as people think. Sure, they won 5 of their last 6, but the MAC was down this year and we just saw the MAC Champs, Northern Illinois, get annihilated by UAB 37-13 last night. Eastern Michigan also lost to a team from the Sun Belt.
As for the Mountain West, Fresno State won by double-digits over Arizona State and Utah State rolled a good North Texas team 52-13 and the Aggies played the bowl without their head coach. Take San Diego State!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +6.5||Top||12-9||Win||100||51 h 35 m||Show|
5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +
This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road.
Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11.
The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game.
It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina!
|12-16-18||Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5||17-41||Win||110||31 h 32 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings -
This is going to seem like way too many points for the Vikings to be laying coming off of back-to-back losses where they offense was non-existent, especially against a Dolphins team that just upset the Patriots.
As most of you are aware, Miami's win over New England was a complete fluke. Very similar to the Vikings last second win over the Saints in last year's playoffs. If you remember back, Minnesota got annihilated the next week by the Eagles. You are on such an emotional high from that miracle win, it becomes near impossible to play up to your true potential the next week.
I also love the move by the Vikings to fire offensive coordinator Jon DeFilippo. That offense had lost it's confidence and a change of scenery could be exactly what they need to turn this thing around. Head coach Mike Zimmer has made it pretty clear there will be a bigger focus on the run, which they did get a little too pass-happy under DeFilippo.
Minnesota also has a dominant defense that is only giving up 19.3 ppg and 270 ypg on their home field. I think they are going to make life miserable on a Miami offense that could must just 175 total yards a couple weeks ago against the Bills.
Dolphins are 2-10 ATS last 12 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 0-6 last 6 road games off a division game. Vikings are 11-3 ATS last 14 home games after the first month of the season. Take Minnesota!
|12-16-18||Redskins v. Jaguars -7.5||16-13||Loss||-100||31 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jags -
I'm sure a lot of people will have a hard time laying a big number with a Jaguars team that is just 1-8 in their last 9 games. However, this is not so much a play on Jacksonville as it is a play against the Redskins.
Injuries have completely derailed the Redskins chances of winning the NFC East and making the playoffs. Goals that looked very realistic after the team started out 6-3. They are starting their 4th different quarterback. Starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy both suffered season ending injuries. Mark Sanchez was a waste of space and it's now Josh Jackson calling the shots.
It's not just injuries at quarterback, both sides of the ball have been decimated. There's also guys who are playing that aren't happy. It's really a complete mess all-around and I see no why they make a game of it on the road against the Jags. Jacksonville's offense isn't great, but that defense should have a field day here. Take Jacksonville!
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants +1.5||17-0||Loss||-110||19 h 19 m||Show|
3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +
I think we are getting some decent value here with the Giants. New York won't have star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. He didn't play last week and the team put up 40 on the Redskins. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley is going to shoulder the load here and I think he's going to be difference maker.
The Titans come in at 7-6 and are in the AFC Wild Card hunt, but I'm just not a big believer in this team. I just don't like teams that have to play perfectly to win ugly and that's really what Tennessee does.
There's also a great system in play here. Home teams in non-conference games are 33-9 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more against a division rival. Take New York!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||19 h 18 m||Show|
4* Packers/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE WEEK on Packers +
This is too many points for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to be getting. Rodgers is at his best when this team needs it the most and Green Bay's backs are firm against the wall. They need to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs, but there is a path for them to sneak in.
I think the firing of Mike McCarthy was a good move. Few head coaches have underachieved more with a talent like Rodgers at quarterback. It certainly felt like Rodgers and him weren't on the same page.
They looked like a different team in the first game after the McCarthy firing, as they cruised to an easy 34-20 win at home against the Falcons, which they led 34-7 going into the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying they win the game outright, but it's definitely in play. Chicago has a great defense, maybe the best in the league, but I still got my concerns with the offense. Trubisky wasn't sharp in his first game back from injury and this Green Bay defense is been solid over the course of the season.
Let's also not forget Rodgers has owned the Bears and he reminded them of that in Week 1, when he guided Green Bay back from a 20-0 deficit in the second half for a 24-23 win. Packers are also 35-19 ATS last 54 road games after failing to cover their previous 2 games. Take Green Bay!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +
Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure.
A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball.
While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland!
|12-15-18||Texans -7 v. Jets||29-22||Push||0||10 h 4 m||Show|
4* NFL Texans/Jets VEGAS INSIDER on Texans -
The Jets simply don't have the talent to keep this thing competitive, especially after losing their leading rusher and receiver. I know the players and coaches are saying they are trying, but wins only hurt this team in the long run, as they lose out on a higher draft pick at an elite talent.
Sam Darnold was bad at taking care of the football and to no surprise he's making plenty of poor decisions in his rookie season. There's a really good chance Houston wins the turnover battle and that should be more than enough to get the separation we need to cover this spread.
Deshaun Watson has been a covering machine on the road, going 6-3 ATS last 9. Houston as a team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record (Jets are 2-4). New York is also 0-4 last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston!
|12-13-18||Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs||29-28||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
3* NFL Chargers/Chiefs VEGAS SHARP ANGLE on Chargers +
This game features two of the best teams in the NFL and I just can't pass up the value here with the Chargers catching more than a field goal. The Chiefs were extremely fortunate to beat the Ravens at home last week. Kansas City had to convert two 4th down plays on a late touchdown drive to force overtime.
That was the only 2nd half points the Chiefs were able to score before adding on the game-winning field goal in overtime. Prior to that KC hadn't won by fewer than a touchdown on their home field. The week before they were in serious jeopardy of losing at Oakland.
Just so happens those are the first two games without Kareem Hunt. It's just not the same offense without Hunt, who was a master of picking up those extra yards and creating big plays. Now they don't have backup Spencer Ware and are down starting guard Cam Erving.
This Chiefs defense is better at home and is getting back Eric Berry, but it's still one of the worst units in the league. Philip Rivers absolutely torched them in Week 1, throwing for 424 yards and 3 scores. Rivers and his receivers missed multiple deep passes that should have been converted.
I think this is going to be very similar to the Baltimore game last week with the game being on the line in the 4th quarter and the road team having a good shot at winning outright. Take Los Angeles!
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||10 h 17 m||Show|
3* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Vegas INSIDER on Vikings +
The books are begging for you take Seattle here. The Seahawks come in having won 3 straight and are off a 43-16 thrashing of the 49ers. The public has taken notice of this team and given their history of being a dominant home team, we are seeing close to 70% of the action coming in on Seattle.
I just think there's a big overreaction here with the Seahawks. They got a lot of wins against teams who are either at the bottom of the standings or just not playing well. I just think Minnesota is on a different level and with all the negative talk out there about the Vikings and the offense being broken, I think they are going to come out on fire in this game.
Seattle's defense is not great. They have given up 300+ passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games and the one game they didn't, they allowed 220 rushing yards. On the flip side of this the Seahawks' offense is all about the running game and that's just not a good recipe for success against a Mike Zimmer led defense. Take Minnesota!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears +3||6-15||Win||100||80 h 5 m||Show|
3* Rams/Bears SNF Vegas INSIDER on Bears +
LA is going to be a massive public play as a short 3-point favorite, but I'm not taking the bait from the books. I'll go ahead and take the 3-points as insurance, but I like the Bears to win this game outright.
I just think Chicago has the talent defensively to make things extremely difficult on the Rams offense. They got playmakers all over the field and it's going to be tough sledding for Todd Gurley and the running game, as the Bears only give up 66 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry at home.
It's not just the defense that makes Chicago a strong play, their offense has really gotten better under Matt Nagy and they will have Mitch Trubisky back under center after he missed the last two games. I think Nagy has had a very similar effect on his young quarterback to that of Rams head coach Sean McVay and how he transformed Goff a year ago.
It's going to be electric at Soldier Field for a prime time night game and while the conditions could be a lot worse, I think the cold is not something a lot of these Rams players will be excited about playing in. Chicago has covered 15 of their last 21 home games and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago!
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +4.5||14-20||Win||100||76 h 50 m||Show|
4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers +
The Broncos have made some noise the past 3 weeks, stringing together 3 straight wins over the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. However, they also just lose their top wide out in Emmanuel Sanders and top corner in Chris Harris Jr to season-ending injuries. I just think given those two injuries and just how mediocre this team is to start with, they got no business laying more than a field goal on the road.
The 49ers are just 2-10 and come in having lost 3 in a row, but there is reason to be optimistic. After a couple of rough outings following his magical first start on MNF, Nick Mullens completed 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers last week.
It's a performance no one is really taking about because they managed just 16 points, but I think it's a great sign going into this game. He should be able to pick apart that Broncos secondary without Harris. Note that while they snuck out wins, Rivers threw for 384 yards against this Denver defense and Roethlisberger threw for 452.
As for the Broncos, there's plenty of talk about Denver putting up over 200 yards rushing in their 24-10 win at Cincinnati, but that result is reason to be concerned. Broncos are just 5-12-1 ATS last 18 after allowing 18 or fewer points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after rushing for more than 150 yards. Look for the 49ers to at worst keep this close and likely win the game outright. Take San Francisco!
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||Top||24-27||Win||100||73 h 46 m||Show|
5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +
This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games.
With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball.
With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce.
The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore!
|12-08-18||Navy +7 v. Army||10-17||Push||0||29 h 1 m||Show|
3* Army/Navy No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Navy +
This is just too many points to pass up in one of college football's most storied rivalries. No question Army has had the better regular-season, as Navy didn't even qualify for a bowl. With that said, records mean nothing in a game like this. If anything, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule, so it's not as lopsided as you might think.
The biggest thing here with this touchdown spread is this game has been came right down to the wire each of the last two years. A big reason the games are competitive, is there's typically not a lot of scoring with two option teams. Not only does all that running eat up the clock, but these two teams are well-prepared defensively to defend the option.
Army has a bowl game against Houston to look forward to, while this is Navy's bowl game. I just think having lost the last two and being a dog in this fight for the first time in a long time, the Midshipmen aren't just a threat to cover, but win this game outright. Take Navy!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
3* Jags/Titans TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Titans -
Home teams have a huge edge in these Thursday Night games, as they don't have to deal with the travel on top of playing on just 3 days of rest. I get the Jags were able to get a win in their first start after benching Bortles, but they had no business winning that game scoring just 6 points.
Cody Kessler is not the answer at quarterback and the return of Fournette isn't going to a whole lot when the Titans defense doesn't have to respect the pass. Tennessee is only giving up 18.6 ppg at home and are coming into this one riding a huge wave of momentum after their big rally in a 26-22 win over the Jets.
Jacksonville is 1-5 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by nearly 10 points/game and that so called great defense of the Jags is giving up 6.1 yards/play away from home. Take Tennessee!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Eagles MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Redskins +
I really like the value here with Washington in this huge NFC East showdown on Monday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in off a 25-22 win tat home over the Giants, where they had to battle back from a 19-3 deficit in the 1st half. I get the only thing that really matters is they won the game, but to fall behind by 16-points to a team like the Giants in a game you had to have is a big concern for me.
I just think given what we have seen from the Eagles in 2018, there's no way they should be laying almost a touchdown against a team like the Redskins. Washington has the better record at 6-5, but are coming in undervalued due to the loss of starting quarterback Alex Smith. I don't think there's a big drop-off from Smith to Colt McCoy and this Redskins defense is a lot better than they get credit for.
Eagles defense hasn't been great and come in giving up 6.4 yards/play. That's worth noting as the Redskins are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. On the flip side of this, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS last 6 vs teams that allow 6 or more yards/play. Take Washington!
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +10||Top||30-16||Loss||-105||122 h 57 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season.
On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention.
I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog.
Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit!
|12-02-18||Colts v. Jaguars +5||0-6||Win||100||68 h 22 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Jags +
This is one most people aren't going to be able to stomach, but the books know this and have inflated the number, creating big time value with the Jaguars.
Colts were a mere 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville in Week 10. That means had they played on a neutral field that week the line basically would have been a pick'em and if they had played in Jacksonville the Jags would have been favored by 3.
They have adjusted this number by more than a touchdown and it's only been 3 weeks since they played. Colts were fortunate to win that game. Jacksonville's Rashad Green hauled in his first catch of the year and while fighting for extra yards fumbled. Instead of having the ball 1st & 10 on the Colts 25 down 3 with 1:35 to play, Indy kneels 3 straight times to end the game.
I get the idea is that the Jags are done for. They got no shot of the playoffs, won't have star running back Leondard Fournette, benched starting quarterback Blake Bortles and fired Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Cody Kessler will start and he's got experience.
It's not like the offense was good before, so I think worst case it's more of the same. At the same time, it becomes harder for the Colts to game-plan for the Jags offense with a new guy calling the plays. I still think there's some fight in this team and I'm not sold on Indianapolis being a real threat in the AFC. Take Jacksonville!
|12-02-18||Panthers v. Bucs +3.5||17-24||Win||100||68 h 18 m||Show|
4* NFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Bucs +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a home division dog against the Panthers. Carolina is still getting a lot of love from the public, despite the results suggesting you should be betting against them.
It started with that awful showing against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, where they lost 52-21. Most just chalked that up to Carolina playing bad on the road in a short week. Then they lost an inexcusable game at Detroit against a mediocre Lions team. Then last week they lose at home to Seattle in a game they gave away late.
I just don't like how the direction we are headed with the Panthers and Tampa Bay is a team that has the talent to win this game and will be playing with a ton of confidence off their 27-9 win at home against the 49ers. Easily their best showing since their upset win at New Orleans in Week 1.
Jamies Winston got the start and shockingly the Bucs had zero turnovers. With the way this team can score, if they take care of the football they will be tough to beat. I just don't see Carolina pulling away and worse case here the Panthers win by a field goal. Take Tampa Bay!
|12-01-18||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28||42-10||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +
This is just too much value to pass up on with the Panthers as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. Unlike some other teams playing this Saturday, Clemson doesn't need style points to get into the playoffs. All they have to do is win this game and they are in, so there's no incentive to turn this into a blowout.
I think that definitely favors Pitt keeping this close and I'm a bit shocked the Panthers are getting no respect here. They only lost by 5-points on the road against Notre Dame. I know the final score says they lost 51-6 to Penn State, but that was a 14-6 game at the half and not nearly as big a gap in talent as the final score would lead you to believe. I know they lost their last game against Miami, but they zero reason to show up with this game on deck (already had Coastal locked up).
Let's also not ignore the schedule for Clemson. The ACC was way down this year, so they had a lot of blowout wins. I think the 3 best teams they played were Texas A&M, Syracuse and Boston College. They beat the Aggies by just 2, were lucky to beat the Orange by 4 and only defeated the Eagles by 20. Take Pittsburgh!
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||40 h 39 m||Show|
4* Georgia/Alabama SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia +
This is the matchup everyone expected and I can't believe the value we are getting here with the Bulldogs. The media has claimed this Alabama team the winners of the national championship for months, but a two touchdown favorite on a neutral field against an elite team like Georgia is a direct result of the books inflating this number because of how good the Crimson Tide have been against the number and how much the public is going to flock to the No. 1 team in the country.
Georgia has been craving this opportunity since blowing that 2nd half lead to Alabama in last year's national championship game. I just don't see a lot different between the two teams. Much like last year when the Bulldogs laid an egg against Georgia, they had one this year at LSU. They have been 100% locked in since that loss to the Tigers and certainly have the talent to not just keep this close enough to cover, but win the game outright.
Keep in mind that Alabama was a mere 3.5-point favorite in the title game a year ago and only won by 3 in OT. No question Georgia players are going to know the number here and I think that only adds more fuel to the fire. Bulldogs have a defense that can slow down the Crimson Tide and without question the best offense Alabama will have seen so far this year. Take Georgia!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||41-56||Loss||-115||5 h 57 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Memphis
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|12-01-18||Marshall v. Virginia Tech -4||Top||20-41||Win||100||97 h 0 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech -
It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences.
The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home.
Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||30-29||Win||100||27 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Illinois +
Everyone is on Buffalo in this game, yet the line keeps dropping in favor of the Huskies. That's because the sharps know the wrong team is actually favored in this game. The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and most will just assume a 10-win team with an offense that averages 35.2 ppg is going to easily cover a short number like this.
I just think that's a mistake. Northern Illinois is way better than their 7-5 record would lead you to believe. Their 4 non-conference games were against Iowa, Utah, FSU and BYU. The only two games they lost in MAC play were the final two after they had the division title locked up. This team has been eying the Bulls for weeks now and I think they have the talent on the defensive side of the ball to really make life tough on Buffalo.
We did just see an Ohio defense, that I have rated slightly worse than the Huskies, hold the Bulls to just 17 points and 277 total yards in a 52-17 win. I'm not saying it's going to be that lopsided, but I think worst case here this thing is decided by a field goal with the Huskies likely winning outright. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +7.5||Top||10-13||Win||100||79 h 54 m||Show|
5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys +
We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys.
That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11.
The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas!
|11-26-18||Titans +4 v. Texans||17-34||Loss||-105||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* Titans/Texans MNF ATS DESTROYER on Titans +
Love the value here with Tennessee catching over a field goal here against the Texans. This thing should be closer to a Pick'em, but the books are inflating the number big time, knowing the public is going to pound the Texans.
Tennessee's a hard team to back because they don't exactly look pretty when they win and they are fresh off an ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. However, that was a horrible spot for the Titans, who laid it all on the line the previous week in a 34-10 home win over the Patriots.
Houston on the other hand has won 7 straight since starting out 0-3. An impressive run, but it's hard to get really excited about it. The wins have come against the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jags, Dolphins, Broncos and Redskins. They have also been very fortunate in close games, as 5 of the 7 have come by a touchdown or less.
Titans already beat Houston 20-17 earlier this season on their home field and I think Tennessee is playing much better than they were then. All signs point to a defensive battle and this one likely being decided by a field goal or less. Take Tennessee!
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||Top||24-27||Win||100||104 h 31 m||Show|
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins +
It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown.
I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright.
The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down.
Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami!
|11-25-18||Steelers v. Broncos +3||17-24||Win||105||103 h 30 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos +
The books are making it pretty clear who they think will win this game, as they know the public will be all over the Steelers at this price. Pittsburgh has won 6 straight and off an improbable win at Jacksonville. Denver is 4-6 and won just 2 of their last 8 games.
Broncos do come into this one off a big 23-22 upset win at the Chargers as a 7-point dog and will definitely be playing with a ton of confidence. For me, I just think this is a really tough spot for Pittsburgh. The Steelers used everything they had to rally late to steal the game at Jacksonville and are primed for a bit of a letdown here.
Keep in mind we know Ben Roethlisberger and the offense doesn't perform at the same level on the road as they do at home and I think the thin air of Denver will make it that much harder on Pittsburgh to play well here.
Broncos have gone an impressive 29-15 ATS in their last 44 home games vs a top tier team that's outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game. Steelers are also 7-19-1 ATS last 27 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Denver!
|11-25-18||Cardinals v. Chargers -13.5||10-45||Win||100||10 h 55 m||Show|
3* NFL Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Chargers -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Chargers at home against the Cardinals. This is a huge bounce back spot for Los Angeles, as they come in off an upset loss at home to the Broncos and can't afford to lose this one with a tough 4 game stretch to close out the year against the Steelers, Bengals, Ravens and Chiefs.
Shouldn't be much of a problem here for the Chargers to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Arizona couldn't even beat the Raiders on their home field and it's never good when a bad team is dealing with the injury bug. Several key players are not expected to be available for the Cardinals and they already didn't have the talent to compete.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a failed cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 in November. Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games in month of November and 1-10 ATS last 11 with a total of 42.5 to 49. Take Los Angeles!
|11-25-18||Patriots v. Jets +10||27-13||Loss||-110||100 h 6 m||Show|
4* Patriots/Jets AFC East PLAY OF THE WEEK on Jets +
This is too good a price to pass up with the Jets as a double-digit division home dog against the Patriots. No surprise here to see New England overvalued, as the books no the public will be chomping at the bit to take the Patriots off their bye, which followed an ugly loss to the Titans, especially against a bad team like the Jets.
The thing is, New York always seems to find a way to keep it close at home against New England. The last 5 times the Patriots visiting MetLife they have lost outright twice and the 3 wins have all come by a touchdown or less. Last year NE won 24-17 as a 9-point favorite.
Patriots are also not the same team away from home. They are 7-0 at home and just 2-3 on the road. I think it's a plus here that the rookie Sam Darnold isn't start, as Belichick has owned rookie signal callers.
The Jets are also coming off of their bye, but it's worth noting the last time they played they lost 41-10 at home to the Bills. That's because NY is 21-6 ATS in home games off a home loss. Take New York!
|11-25-18||Seahawks +3 v. Panthers||30-27||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +
I like the value here with Seattle catching a field goal on the road against the Panthers. Carolina comes in having lost two straight and can't be trusted against the Seahawks. The Panthers got annihilated at Pittsburgh 52-21 on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and followed it up by giving away the game in a 20-19 loss at Detroit.
Seattle on the other hand rallied from a double-digit deficit to knock off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home on Thursday Night Football. Extra few days to prepare is a huge advantage for the Seahawks in this one.
Seattle has been playing as well as anyone of late. They are 5-3 in their last 8 with 2 of those losses coming to the Rams in games they easily could have won and the other a loss to the red-hot Chargers.
Seahawks get the perception as this bad road team, but they come in having covered 7 of their last 10 and are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take Seattle!
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC +11.5||24-17||Win||100||17 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +
I really like the value here with USC as a double-digit home dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame needs here is a win here and they will secure a spot in the college football playoff. All the pressure is on the Irish and no one is giving the Trojans a chance here, especially off that ugly loss last week to UCLA.
I just think USC has had their eyes set on this game and the chance to spoil Notre Dame's perfect season and keep them out of the playoffs. We have already seen the Trojans beat a top team at home, as they knocked off Washington State earlier this year. They have lost ta home to ASU and Cal, but both could have went either way. I'm not saying USC pulls off the upset, but I think they keep it within single digits at the Coliseum. Take USC +11.5!
|11-24-18||Kentucky v. Louisville +17.5||56-10||Loss||-109||82 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +
I like the value here with Louisville as a big home dog against in-state rival Kentucky. I know it hasn't been pretty for the Cardinals in 2018 and they just lost at home to NC State by 42 last week, but I think some of that poor showing was a result of this team looking ahead to this showdown with the Wildcats.
I think we get a huge effort here from Louisville as they try to not only send their seniors out on a positive note, but also to put some kind of positive note on this disaster of a season. The even bigger key here is I don't think Kentucky is in a really bad spot. I think for them, they felt their season came to and end with that home loss to Georgia, where a win would have put them in the SEC Championship Game.
Just zero incentive here for them in these final few games and it's shown with their play on the field. They lost outright at Tennessee 24-7 and then barely beat Middle Tennessee 34-23 as a 16.5-point favorite. This is a team that couldn't score even when they were playing well, but they aren't playing with the same energy and effort on defense, which is what I believe will keep them from covering this big number. Take Louisville!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||30 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on North Carolina +
I really like the value here with the Tar Heels as a decently priced home dog against in-state rival NC State. North Carolina comes into this game sitting at 2-8 and having lost 6 straight games in ACC play. While the losses have continued to pile up, the Tar Heels have been extremely competitive of late. Their last 5 losses are all by 10-points or less and they could have won all 5 of those games.
I expect this team to come out extremely motivated for this one. Not only are they going to want to play well in their final home game of the season, but they haven't beat NC State on their home field since 2012. Not to mention, the Wolfpack have won the last two in the series.
I just don't think this year's NC State is as good as people think and have no business here laying this big a number on the road. The Wolfpack just recently lost at home to Wake Forest 27-23 as a 18.5-point favorite and their only two wins in their last 5 games are against FSU and Louisville.
The most recent was a blowout win and cover at Louisville, but note that NC State is just 11-28 ATS in their last 39 off a conference road win. Tar Heels are 22-7 ATS last 29 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games. Take North Carolina!
|11-24-18||Florida v. Florida State +7.5||41-14||Loss||-105||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida State +
The Seminoles have won 5 straight in this series and while this season has been a huge disappointment, FSU showed it means something to get to a bowl with their strong showing last week in their upset win at home over Boston College.
While the Seminoles are going to lay it all on the line to get that 6th win an extend their season, there's not a ton here for the Gators to be excited about and this is definitely not a team you can trust laying a number like this. We recently saw them win by just 4 as a 6.5-point home favorite vs S Carolina. The week before that they lost 38-17 as a 4.5-point favorite agains Missouri.
Seminoles have covered 9 of their last 12 outside of conference, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs the SEC. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a ATS cover. Take Florida State!
|11-23-18||Washington +3 v. Washington State||Top||28-15||Win||100||60 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +
The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less.
Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field.
I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmaker ERROR on South Florida +
UCF is getting way too much respect here on the road against the Bulls. The Knights are fresh off a huge 38-13 win over Cincinnati at home, which locked up a spot in the AAC title game. They annihilated the spread in that game, as they went off as a mere 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side the Bulls come in having lost 4 straight. It all adds up to this inflated line we are seeing.
I not only think the Bulls can keep this within two touchdowns, but if a few breaks go there way, I could see them winning this game outright. USF has the speed on both sides of the ball to matchup with the Knights and most importantly have the talent offensively to keep pace with Milton and that UCF offense.
All the pressure is on the Knights in this one, while USF has absolutely nothing to lose, yet will be extremely motivated (has to feel like their Super Bowl) to put an end to this nation-long winning streak of UCF. Bulls did beat the Knights the last time UCF came to South Florida (last regular-season loss for UCF) and we have seen the Knights struggle away from home. They were extremely fortunate to win at Memphis earlier this year, escaping with a 31-30 win. I see a similar game here that's decided in the final minutes. Take South Florida!
|11-22-18||Falcons +12.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-105||82 h 18 m||Show|
5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Falcons +
The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up.
Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that.
I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +13||35-3||Loss||-105||21 h 48 m||Show|
4* Miss St/Ole Miss Egg Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +
This is just too many points for the Rebels to be catching on their home field in a big rivalry game like this. Sure Mississippi State has the better record and are the more talented team, but you can throw out all the stats when referring to the Egg Bowl. Just last year the Rebels won 31-28 at Mississippi State as a 14-point underdog. The year before that the Bulldogs won 55-20 as a 10-point dog.
I'm not saying Ole Miss will win this game outright, but it definitely shouldn't surprise you if they do, especially with what's at stake and this being on their home field. The Rebels need a win here to become bowl eligible, as they sit at 5-6.
Playing on the road has definitely not been the strength of this Mississippi State team, as they are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS away from home. The biggest problem for the Bulldogs has been the inability of the offense to put up points. I know Ole Miss doesn't have the best of defenses, but this one they have to feel like they can at least make some stops against.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rebels have the playmakers on offense to score against this talented Mississippi State defense. Take Ole Miss!
|11-22-18||Bears v. Lions +4.5||Top||23-16||Loss||-115||44 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions +
I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings.
The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota.
Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less.
We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit!
|11-20-18||Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan||21-28||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Illinois -
I think we are getting a solid price here on the Huskies due to the fact that people will assume they want nothing to do with this game having already locked up a spot in next week's MAC title game. I'm not buying that at all.
I think having lost last week at home to Miami will have this team locked in for this contest. Keep in mind that while they lost the RedHawks, their defense was outstanding, as Miami won the game on a pick-six.
If they play any kind of defense in this one, they should win here by double-digits rather easy, as Western Michigan has completely thrown in the towel on the defensive side of the ball. In the Broncos last 3 game they have allowed 42 to Ball State, 59 to Ohio and 51 to Toledo. Take Northern Illinois!
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears -2.5||Top||20-25||Win||100||59 h 2 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears -
I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should
The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff.
Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-105||82 h 56 m||Show|
4* Eagles/Saints NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Eagles +
Simply too much value here with Philadelphia to pass up. The books have been absolutely destroyed by the Saints this season, as New Orleans has covered every spread they have faced since that ugly win against the Browns back in Week 2. That 7-0 ATS run has New Orleans way overvalued here against the Eagles.
On the flip side of this, this is about as low as the perceptions has been on the Eagles. Prior to last week's ugly loss to the Cowboys at home, I think most thought this team would snap out of their early season funk. Either way, with a record of 4-5, this is do or die time for Philadelphia.
There are just some teams that relish the role of the underdog and there's no question all the doubters played a big part in the Eagles Super Bowl run a year ago. I think we see that same nasty fight from this team and while it might not be enough to beat Brees and the Saints on the road, I think they can keep it within a touchdown. Take Philadelphia!
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