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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-13-18||Ole Miss -6 v. Arkansas||37-33||Loss||-104||101 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -
I got no problem laying less than a touchdown with Ole Miss on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have gotten off to an awful start in the first year under Chad Morris. They won their opener against Eastern Illinois and have lost 5 straight since.
That includes a loss 7-point loss at Colorado St as a 14-point favorite, a 27-point loss at home to North Texas as a 5-point favorite and 34-3 defeat to an Auburn team that has struggled. They have covered their last 2 against Texas A&M and Alabama, but were fortunate to do so. They were a 19-point dog to the Aggies and trailed 17-0 before Texas A&M took their foot off the gas. Last week they were a 34.5-point dog to Alabama and lost by 34 thanks to a late touchdown with just 13 seconds on the clock.
It's been bad on both sides of the ball, as the Razorbacks own the 103rd ranked offense (358.1 ypg) and are 91st in rushing and 92nd in passing. They have the 110th ranked pass defense, giving up 271.3 ypg.
Ole Miss is simply too talented. The Rebels only two losses are against two of the best teams in the conference in LSU and Alabama. They have taken care of everyone else, including a 20-point win over what looks to be a good Texas Tech team.
I mentioned how bad Arkansas was against the pass. Ole Miss has the 5th best passing attack in the country at 347.5 ypg. Look for the Rebels to score at will and while their defense is bad, it can make enough stops to pull away. Take Ole Miss!
|10-13-18||Missouri +28.5 v. Alabama||10-39||Loss||-115||32 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Missouri +
After starting out the year a perfect 3-0 ATS, Alabama has failed to cover 3 straight. The thing is they have been so close to covering the last 3, the public isn't backing down and we continue to get unbelievable value fading the Crimson Tide.
There's no question that Alabama will win this game at home, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win by more than 4 touchdowns against this Missouri team. The Tigers have the 9th ranked offense in the country, averaging 530 ypg. The have the 15th ranked passing attack (318.4 ypg) behind future NFL signal caller Drew Lock.
You have to be able to threaten Alabama vertically to have any success against them, as they are just too strong up front to ground and pound. The high-powered passing attack is also what you want for the backdoor cover. Note the Crimson Tide have made a habit of letting teams score late.
The other big key here is we have already seen Missouri hang with Georgia, only losing by 14 points. They also were outgained by just 52 yards and had a 26 to 18 edge in first downs over the Bulldogs.
Tigers are also 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record and have covered 10 of their last 14 overall. Crimson Tide are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last conference games. Take Missouri!
|10-13-18||Michigan State +14 v. Penn State||Top||21-17||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +
Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one.
I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright.
It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College.
I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State.
They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts.
Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State!
|10-13-18||Texas A&M v. South Carolina +2.5||26-23||Loss||-100||28 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on South Carolina +
Coming off a win at home over No. 13 Kentucky, I think we are seeing the Aggies get a little too much love on the road against a good South Carolina team. The Gamecocks rallied to beat Missouri 37-35 at home last week, but are still searching for that signature win.
It's actually a very similar spot to what we saw last week with Texas A&M. Except we get even more motivation here from South Carolina as a home dog.
This is also a good Gamecocks team. There only two losses were at home to Georgia and on the road to Kentucky. Texas A&M has played just one road game all season and that was at Alabama. While they covered the spread, it was no contest, as the Crimson Tide had a 31-13 lead at the half and 45-16 advantage going into the 4th quarter.
I also like the matchup. Aggies defense is outstanding against the run, but are a mere 97th in the country vs the pass (244.8 ypg). Gamecocks have the 48th ranked passing offense (255.8 ypg). As for the defense, Muschamp knows Fisher's schemes well from when both were coordinators under Saban at LSU. They also get the benefit of feeding off the home crowd. I'll take the points but I expect the home team to win outright. Take South Carolina!
|10-13-18||Washington -3 v. Oregon||27-30||Loss||-115||28 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington -
I just don't see Washington losing to the Ducks, making this an easy play for me with the Huskies at such a low price. I think the fact that Oregon should have beat Stanford at home a couple weeks back (blew a 24-7 halftime lead) and are off a bye, is what's keeping this number lower than it should be.
By no means do I think the Ducks aren't any good, I just believe that Washington is a step above the entire Pac-12 conference. While they only beat Arizona St by 7, they were without a question the better team. They kept the Sun Devils in it with short fields and were still up 14 with less than 3 minutes to play. Also, don't be fooled by the mere 7-point win at UCLA. Washington simply took their foot off the gas after building a 24-7 halftime lead, which says a lot about how much they are looking forward to this game.
Justin Herbert might be the best quarterback not everyone knows about, but he's going to be up against an elite Huskies defense that specializes in defending the pass (17th, 174.7 ypg). It's going to be a lot easier on Washington quarterback Jake Browning, as he faces an Oregon secondary that ranks 89th vs the pass (238.2 ypg) and haven't exactly played a lot of great teams. They opened with Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose St, all at home.
With the offense figuring to be able to move the ball and a defense that is built to play well on the road, I just don't see the Ducks having enough in them to keep this within a touchdown. Take Washington!
|10-12-18||South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5||Top||25-24||Win||100||68 h 3 m||Show|
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +
The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston.
They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team.
I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois.
If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward.
Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa!
|10-11-18||Georgia Southern v. Texas State +18||15-13||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas State +
There's no question that Georgia Southern is greatly improved over the team that went just 2-10 last year, but they simply overvalued here on the road against the Bobcats. The inflated line comes from the fact that the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while Texas State has only covered one game in their first 5.
Georgia Southern runs the option offense and while they have put up some big numbers, when you run the football as much as they do, it really limits the number of possessions. That makes the big number we are getting that much more valuable. As is the case with a lot of option teams, they aren't great at defending the pass and I look for Texas State to make enough big plays through the air to keep this one respectable.
Playing at home is also a huge advantage here for the Bobcats, as it's really tough to play on short rest away from home. Georgia Southern has also struggled on the road against bad teams, as they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Texas State!
|10-09-18||Appalachian State -9 v. Arkansas State||35-9||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
3* App St/Ark St Sun Belt PLAY OF THE WEEK on App State -
I got no problem laying the big number here with the Mountaineers on the road. A lot of people will be drawn to Arkansas State as big home dog in this weekday matchup. The Red Wolves were picked to win the Sun Belt West by a lot of experts and senior quarterback Justice Hansen was a big reason why.
The problem here is that Hansen is going to be asked to do too much against a top notch Appalachian State defense, as I just don't see the Red Wolves stop unit being able to slow down this high-powered Mountaineers attack. App State put up 38 points on Penn State in their opener and have scored no fewer than 45 in 3 straight wins. They are scoring almost 10 ppg more than what their opponents are giving up and will be facing a Red Wolves defense that is allowing 29.2 ppg.
Look for the Mountaineers to be able to do whatever they want offensively, as they should be in great down and distances all game. App State has rushed for 780 yards in their last 2 games and are averaging 269 ypg and 6.5 yards/carry. Red Wolves are giving up 245 ypg and allowing 5.7 yards/carry against the run. Take Appalachian State!
|10-07-18||Wyoming +3.5 v. Hawaii||13-17||Loss||-115||59 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS BLOWOUT on Wyoming +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises early on. A Rainbow Warriors team that won just 3 games last year, has started out 5-1 with two outright wins as an underdog. However, both those underdog wins came in their first two games.
They have since gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and I think they are getting way too much respect here against a Wyoming team that is a lot more talented than their 2-3 record would suggest. Two of those three losses have come against Power 5 opponents and the other against a Boise State team that is one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country.
The biggest thing that has held the Cowboys back is their offense, but they will have no problem moving the ball here against this Hawaii defense. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg, almost a touchdown more/game than what their opponents are averaging.
With a talented defense that is better than people realize because of the poor numbers from the tough slate, I think the Cowboys not only cover the spread but win this game outright. Take Wyoming!
|10-06-18||Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +6.5||45-23||Loss||-100||45 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Non-Conf PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +
I think this is an ideal spot to jump on the Hokies as a home dog, especially with this being a nationally televised (ABC) night game. It's hard enough to win at Lane Stadium on normal circumstances, it takes all you got to win here in a night game.
Notre Dame has looked great early on and are off that impressive 38-17 win over Stanford last week. However, that was at home, where the Irish have benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 and I know the Cardinal were ranked No. 7 going into that contest, but I've not been impressed at all with what I've seen from Stanford.
Notre Dame's only true road game was at Wake Forest, who are a good up and coming team, but have zero defense. This is without a doubt the biggest challenge to date for the Irish and outside of their no-show against Old Dominion, this team has looked impressive, especially on defense, where they are giving up just 84 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards/carry.
I think this line would be closer to a pick'em if it wasn't for the injury to Hokies quarterback Justin Jackson, but I don't think there's that big of a drop-off to backup Ryan Willis, who torched a good Duke defense last week for 332 yards and 3 scores. An outright win for the home team wouldn't surprise me at all. Take Virginia Tech!
|10-06-18||Washington -20 v. UCLA||Top||31-24||Loss||-110||58 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -
Washington has won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Auburn and have racked up 3 straight impressive wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona State and BYU. I think we are seeing a shorter line here because this looks like a flat spot off those three and an even bigger game at Oregon on deck.
It's certainly not an ideal spot, but I also don't think UCLA has the talent for it to matter. The biggest thing to keep in mind is Washington can't afford to overlook anyone, as one more loss and they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.
With how good the Huskies are defensively and how bad the Bruins are offensively, it's going to be really tough for UCLA to keep this within 3 touchdowns. Washington sits 10th in the country in total defense, giving up just 290 ypg. The Bruins are 102nd in rushing (135.8 ypg) and 109th in passing (176.3 ypg).
Look for the Huskies to have excellent field position throughout and I'm expecting a couple costly turnovers by UCLA to really open this thing up. Keep in mind the the Bruins defense is not good. They are 95th against the run (183 ypg) and 85th against the pass (238.5 ypg). They gave up 38 at home to Fresno St and I think Washington could score 50+ and you have to think this Huskies offense is itching for a big day offensively after all the good defenses they have played. Take Washington!
|10-06-18||Auburn -3 v. Mississippi State||9-23||Loss||-110||58 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Auburn -
There was a ton of hype around this Mississippi State coming into the season and even after back-to-back ugly losses at Kentucky and at home to Florida, I still think the Bulldogs are getting way too much respect from the books.
Auburn made some noise with their impressive Week 1 win over Washington, but haven't exactly impressed since. They are just 1-3 ATS in the 4 games since beating the Huskies and lost outright at home to LSU as a 10-point favorite. I think it has the Tigers undervalued here against a Mississippi State team that is clearly struggling to adjust to the new offensive scheme under first year head coach Joe Moorehead.
While the Bulldogs defense has played well enough to win, I just don't see the offense being able to figure things out and do enough here against an elite Auburn defense to win this game, which is basically what they need to do for the Tigers not to cover.
Mississippi State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating 275 or fewer total yards and the Tigers are now 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Auburn!
|10-06-18||UTSA +2 v. Rice||20-3||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +
I think the wrong team is favored here. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. The Owls only win this season came against Prairie View at home in the opener and they only won by 3 as a 22-point favorite.
I certainly don't think they deserve to have the line shaded their way because they are playing at home. Rice didn't win a home game last year and have covered just 2 of their last 6 at home and lost outright in the only game they were favored.
Rice's defense is atrocious, as they are giving up 42.4 ppg and 484 ypg. They are also allowing nearly 8 yards/play, which is basically a first down every time the other team snaps the ball. The offense isn't much better. They have zero threat of a passing game and that figures to be a big problem against a UTSA defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. The Roadrunners held Baylor to just 91 yards rushing and Texas State to 26.
I also like the fact that UTSA is coming into this one playing with confidence as they are riding a 2-game winning streak. Look for the Roadrunners defense to make more than enough stops for them to cash in a rare road win. Take UTSA!
|10-06-18||Iowa State +11 v. Oklahoma State||48-42||Win||100||54 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
Oklahoma State is getting way too much respect here as a double-digit home favorite against the Cyclones.
A big reason for that is Iowa State just isn't getting a ton of respect after starting out 1-3, but it's easy to see why they have the record they do when they have played Iowa and TCU on the road and Oklahoma at home. Note that while they lost to both Oklahoma and TCU, they covered against both conference rivals, losing by just 10 as a 18.5-point dog against the Sooners and by just 3 as a 11.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs.
While Oklahoma State is off a 20-point win and cover over Kansas, they were fortunate to cover, scoring a garbage TD in the final minutes. We have already seen this team lose outright as a home favorite to Texas Tech and it wasn't pretty, as they got rolled 41-17.
The Red Raiders really made it tough on Oklahoma State's passing attack and this ISU defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents under 200 yards passing. I've liked what I've seen out of backup QB Zeb Noland and this Cyclones offense.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised here to see ISU win this game outright, as they matchup well on both sides of the ball. Take Iowa State!
|10-06-18||LSU v. Florida +3||19-27||Win||100||40 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida +
If this line doesn't scream take the Gators, I don't know what does. LSU is the No. 5 ranked team in the country and have gained the respect of the public with a 33-17 win over Miami, 22-21 win at Auburn and their recent 45-16 thrashing of Ole Miss.
Florida is ranked No. 22, but there's still a lot of question marks with this team. As good as their upset win at Mississippi State was last week, it's hard to ignore that 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky.
Simply put, the books are begging for you to take LSU here and the public has taken the bait with roughly 70% of the bets coming in on the Tigers.
I agree with the books, as I have Florida winning this game outright (will gladly take the field goal for insurance). I'm still not sold on this LSU offense being able to move the ball when they go up against a good defense. They are just 79th in the country in total offense at 396.6 ypg. The Gators are 19th in the country, giving up just 311 ypg and are holding opponents a full yard less than what their opponents are averaging.
Look for the Gators defense and a rowdy home crowd to the difference in this one. Take Florida!
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville||66-31||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
4* Ga Tech/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -
I love this spot for the Yellow Jackets and fully expect them to go on the road and put it on a Louisville team that looks lost without Lamar Jackson to carry them offensively. The Cardinals come in averaging a whopping 18.4 ppg and 312 ypg. A drastic drop-off from the 38.1 ppg and 545 ypg they averaged a season ago.
Sophomore quarterback Juwan Pass was suppose to step into the big shoes left by Jackson and keep the offense afloat, but it's been a massive struggle for the Cardinals new signal caller. He's thrown 7 interceptions to just 4 touchdowns and is barely completing more than 50% of his attempts.
Georgia Tech's defensive numbers don't look great on paper, but they have really only played bad in 2 games and those were against a couple of high-powered offenses in USF and Clemson. Louisville clearly isn't on the same level as those two teams and I look for the Yellow Jackets to make it very difficult on this Cardinals offense.
The other thing here is the Louisville defense has had just 5 days to regroup from that crushing home loss to FSU and try to prepare for this option offense of Georgia Tech. I just think that's a too tall a task for the Cardinals, who have never faced the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!
|10-04-18||Georgia State +17.5 v. Troy||20-37||Win||100||2 h 58 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Georgia State
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-29-18||BYU v. Washington -16.5||7-35||Win||100||120 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Washington -
I got no problem here laying the big number with the Huskies at home against the Cougars. The betting public is all over BYU at this price, as that upset win at Wisconsin as a 23.5-point dog is still fresh in the minds of a lot of people.
The win over Wisconsin looks great on paper, but I'm not so sure the Badgers are as good as we expected. There's also little to be excited about with their road win at Arizona to open the season, as the Wildcats have looked horrible. The game that stands out to me is the home loss to Cal, who is no where close as talented as this Washington team.
I also don't think people are factoring in just how difficult it is to play well Husky Stadium, especially under the lights in a prime time game.
The even bigger key here is this is a statement game for Washington, who need to dominate the rest of the way to get into the playoffs with that loss they suffered early to Auburn.
I look for the defense of the Huskies to be what allows them to not just win but cover. BYU's offense comes in ranked 119th in the country at just 320.3 ypg. That's just not going to cut against this elite defense. Take Washington!
|09-29-18||Ohio State v. Penn State +4||Top||27-26||Win||100||60 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +
I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.
The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy.
As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back.
The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium.
Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State!
|09-29-18||Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52||17-38||Win||100||48 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Stanford OVER
Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are well known for their defenses and both have impressed early against quality competition. Stanford has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 10 points or less, including limiting USC to just 3-points. Notre Dame has held 3 of their 4 opponents to 17 or fewer, one of those being Shea Patterson and the Wolverines.
However, both defenses gave up a season-high last week. With Stanford allowing 31 to Oregon (should have been a lot more) and the Irish allowing 27 to Wake Forest. I believe that's a telling sign of what's to come on Saturday, as I look for these two teams to fly over this total.
Notre Dame, like a lot of top tier teams around the country, made a move at quarterback, going to sophomore Ian Book. It sure looked like the right move, as Book went 25 of 34 for 325 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 43 yards and 3 touchdowns. I believe he takes a good Irish offense and makes them elite.
As for Stanford, their offense couldn't have looked much worse early on, but they finally looked up to par in last week's game agains the Ducks. K.J. Costello threw for 327 yards and 3 scores and Bryce Love had 89 yards on just 19 attempts.
I think both teams score in the high 20's and potentially into the 30's, which will be more than enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. Take the OVER 52!
|09-29-18||South Carolina +2 v. Kentucky||10-24||Loss||-105||60 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +
It's been quite the start to the season for Kentucky, who is 4-0 with wins over two ranked teams in Florida and Mississippi State. The win over Mississippi State really turned some heads and people are starting to buy into this team. South Carolina has started out 2-1, but had an ugly loss at home to Georgia that quieted the hype around this team.
The books are all but begging the public to take Kentucky here laying less than a field goal at home, but I'm going the other way. I think this Gamecocks team is a lot better than people think. While they might not be as talented as the top teams in the SEC, I certainly feel like they are the more talented team in this matchup.
I also think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Not only are they off an emotional win over Mississippi State, but that victory got the respect they were so desperately wanting, as Kentucky went from unranked to No. 17 in the country. It's a lot easier playing with a chip on your shoulder than dealing with the pressure of being expected to win.
The other big thing for me is the matchup. Kentucky's offense is centered around running back Benny Snell, as they come in averaging 269 ypg on the ground to just 158 ypg through the air. They are running it twice as much as they are throwing it. I think that plays right into the strength of this South Carolina defense, which is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 5.5.
The Gamecocks are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games played on Saturday, while Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, which includes an 0-7 mark as a home favorite. Take South Carolina!
|09-29-18||Old Dominion +7 v. East Carolina||35-37||Win||100||44 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Old Dominion +
This is just too good a price to pass up on with the Monarchs. Old Dominion pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 4, as they knocked Virginia Tech 49-35 as a massive 28-point home dog. I think the perception here is that the Monarchs win was a just a result of the Hokies not showing up to play. While that definitely wasn't the best effort from Va Tech, I think it's a mistake to not give some credit to Old Dominion.
The Monarchs put up 632 yards of total offense and it was a direct result of a quarterback change. Blake La Russa came off the bench and 30 of 49 for 495 yards and 4 scores. He lit a fire under this team they had been desperately missing in their 0-3 start, which saw them lose to the likes of Liberty, FIU and Charlotte. Keep in mind this is a team that brought back 16 starters and was suppose to be greatly improved.
As for East Carolina, they also have an impressive outright win as a big dog against an ACC team. The Pirates defeated UNC 41-19 as a 15-point dog. The thing is, that's not a very good Tar Heels team and it doesn't cover up the fact that they lost outright at home to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. They also had just 13 points against a bad USF defense. I just don't think ECU should be laying this big a number against a team that I feel is every bit as talented as them.
Pirates are also not a team that has had a lot of success covering the number under head coach Philip Montgomery. In fact, they are 8-19 ATS with him at head coach. They are also a miserable 3-13 ATS in the first month of the season. Take Old Dominion!
|09-28-18||Memphis -14 v. Tulane||24-40||Loss||-105||21 h 3 m||Show|
3* Friday Night NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -
I just don't think it's asking much for Memphis to win here by more than two touchdowns. Tulane's only win on the season came at home against FCS foe Nicholls State. While they did lost by just 6 at home to Wake Forest earlier in the season, they only managed 17 points against what has been an awful Demon Deacons defense.
They aren't going to keep this within two touchdowns without a huge offensive effort, as this Memphis offense is no joke. The Tigers come in average 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg. They are also averaging 8.7 yards/play, nearly picking up a first down every time they snap the ball. Memphis is built around their passing attack, but are also averaging 309 ypg on the ground.
The big key here is that Tulane is not a team that is built to play from behind with that option based offense that comes in averaging 41 rush attempts per game. Look for the Tigers to jump out to an early lead and win here by 20+ points.
Adding to this, we see that road teams off back-to-back wins by 14 or more points who are winning at least 60% of their games are 67-29 (70%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Memphis!
|09-27-18||North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 56.5||10-47||Loss||-110||1 h 49 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on under
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-22-18||Arkansas v. Auburn -29||3-34||Win||100||20 h 0 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime-Time ATS DESTROYER on Auburn -
I really like Auburn to bounce back in a big way from last week's gut-wrenching 22-21 home loss to LSU. That's definitely one they would have loved to win, but it doesn't ruin their season. Keep in mind they lost a heartbreaker to LSU last year and went on to win the SEC West. What it does do is put Auburn in playoff mode early in the year, as they essentially have to win out.
A lot of people might think Auburn will come out flat after that loss, but I expect the exact opposite. This a statement game for the Tigers and Arkansas is just the team for them to get back on track against. The Razorbacks have been a huge disappointment in year one under head coach Chad Morris. They blew a big 2nd half lead in a 27-34 defeat at Colorado St and followed that up by getting annihilated at home 44-17 by North Texas.
Look for Auburn's Jarrett Stidham to have a field day here against this Arkansas defense that is giving up 300 ypg through the air and allowing opposing QBs to complete 61% of their attempts. With a defense that is as good as any in the country, the Tigers should take control of this game early and turn this into a blowout by half. Take Auburn!
|09-22-18||Michigan State -4 v. Indiana||35-21||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan State -
This is the perfect spot to buy-low on the Spartans. Michigan State came into the season ranked No. 11 in the country, but did have the start people were expecting. They needed a late score to knock off Utah State 38-31 as a 23.5-point favorite and then lost outright as a 4.5-point favorite at Arizona State.
Coming in those were viewed as two easy wins, but turns out both of those teams are a lot better than people think. You also have to factor in just how hard it is for a midwest team to travel out to the west coast and play well. A lot of Big Tens teams over the years have struggled on the road against the Pac-12 early in the year.
This is still a really good Michigan State team and while Indiana is no push-over, it's asking a lot of the Hoosiers to essentially keep this game within a field goal. I also think Indiana is getting a little too much love for that 28-point win over Ball State. Given how well the Cardinals played against Notre Dame on the road the previous week, that's viewed as a good win, but I think they got Ball State in a massive letdown spot.
Note that Indiana was 5-1 ATS as a favorite last year and just 1-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. This team looks good against inferior teams and hit has them overvalued when they take a step up in competition. I think that's what we are seeing here, as the Spartans should win here by double-digits. Take Michigan State!
|09-22-18||Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU||Top||21-38||Win||100||70 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on LA Tech +
This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team.
Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite.
The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball.
The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games.
The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech!
|09-22-18||UNLV v. Arkansas State -7||20-27||Push||0||20 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State
The Red Wolves come into this one at 2-1 with the only loss coming at No. 1 Alabama. Last time out they won outright 29-20 as a road dog against a much-improved Tulsa team and I look for them to have no problem here covering the number at home against UNLV.
UNLV comes in averaging an impressive 39.7 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with the fact they played two cupcakes (UTEP & Prairie View) at home the last two times out. The fact that they played USC tough and covered the big number in Week 1 has them overvalued here.
The key here is the Rebels just don't play enough defense to be competitive on the road against a quality team like Arkansas State. UNLV is giving up a ridiculous 5.4 yards/carry on the ground, allowing 1.3 more yards/carry than what their opponents are averaging. That plays right into the strength of this Red Wolves' offense, which is averaging 4.8 yards/carry on the ground this season.
Red Wolves Blake Anderson is 13-2 ATS as a head coach vs teams that are giving up 4.75 or more yards/carry. Take Arkansas State!
|09-22-18||Charlotte +10 v. UMass||31-49||Loss||-110||79 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +
UMass has no business being this big of a favorite with the way this team is playing. The Minutemen are absolutely atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. In their last 3 games they have allowed 63 points and 536 yards to FIU, 34 points and 485 yards to Georgia Southern and 55 points and 622 yards to BC (Eagles had 48 pts at the half).
They simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win games with that kind of production from their defense. Charlotte is not a great offensive team by any means, but they just had 373 yards and 28 points against a talented Old Dominion team. They are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board, giving them an excellent shot at keeping this close and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won the game outright.
It's also worth noting that UMass could be down it's top two quarterbacks. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both questionable to play. Michael Curtis would be the starter if they can't go and he was just 8 of 15 with 2 picks against FIU. Take Charlotte!
|09-22-18||Virginia Tech v. Old Dominion +29||35-49||Win||100||66 h 54 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Od Dominion +
It's been a complete disaster of a start for Old Dominion. Coming off a 5-7 campaign, where they won 3 of their last 4, a lot of people thought this team would easily make a bowl with 16 starters back. Instead the Monarchs have started 0-3 with losses at Liberty and Charlotte and a home defeat to FIU.
The thing is, they could easily be 2-1 right now, as they blew a 17-point lead against FIU and missed out on several scoring opportunities in a 3-point loss the 49ers. I think there ugly start combined with how good Virginia Tech has looked, has the Hokies getting way too much respect on the road.
That win over FSU doesn't look all that impressive any more and their other victory was against William & Mary. I'm not so sure this team is as good as people think. With a much bigger game on deck against Duke and the fact they are a 4-toucdhown favorite, I could see them looking past the Monarchs.
Old Dominion knows an outright upset is likely out of reach, but expect this team to play their hearts out at home in this in-state rivalry (schools only separated by 300 miles). That should be more than enough for the Monarchs, who do have some talent, to keep this within the number. Take Old Dominion!
|09-22-18||Boston College v. Purdue +7||13-30||Win||100||75 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Purdue +
I just think there's too much value here with Purdue getting a touchdown at home against Boston College. The Boilermakers come into this game sitting at 0-3, but just as easily could be 3-0. Their 3 losses have come by a combined 8-points.
We just saw Boston College get all they could handle on the road against Wake Forest in their last game and I think there's a good chance Purdue wins this game outright. This is basically a do-or-die point of the season for the Boilermakers. A win here and a bowl game is definitely still within reach. A loss and it doesn't look good.
As for the Eagles, they come in feeling really good about themselves after their 3-0 start and just got rewarded with a Top 25 ranking (No. 23). I think it will be really hard for BC to match the intensity that Purdue is going to be playing with.
The Boilermakers can put up points and while BC is known for their defense under Addazzio, they just gave up 512 yards to a Demon Deacons offense that scored just 23 against Tulane. WF rushed for 298 yards (5.0 yards/carry).
BC has a decent offense of their own, but note that Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm is 15-4 ATS when facing a team that's completing 58% or more of their pass attempts and 11-2 ATS vs teams that run for more than 4.75 yards/carry. Take Purdue!
|09-22-18||Nebraska +18 v. Michigan||10-56||Loss||-105||68 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +
There was a ton of hype around the Cornhuskers this year, as they landed promising head coach Scott Frost, who had just guided UCF to a perfect 13-0 season. All of that buzz has subsided after Nebraska's 0-2 start. Losing at home to Colorado in the opener, a game they could have easily won, was acceptable, but a 19-24 loss to Troy has people completely off this team.
Michigan on the other hand is another team that people were really high on this year, as they landed Ole Miss quarter transfer Shea Patterson and many felt that was the one position holding this team back in previous years. The Wolverines were a 3-point favorite at Notre Dame and lost 17-24 and were completely outplayed. However, Michigan has rebounded with a 49-3 win over Western Michigan and 45-20 win over SMU to get back some respect.
I think it all adds up to a ton of value here with Nebraska as a 3-point dog. They lost to Troy without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez, but he's expected back in the lineup this week. I've also been really impressed with this Nebraska defense, which is only giving up 2.7 yards/rush. I also don't trust the Michigan offense.
The Wolverines edge in talent should have them win this game, but expect it to be a dogfight right until the end. Take Nebraska!
|09-22-18||Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5||56-27||Loss||-105||13 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
Notre Dame is getting way too much respect here on the road against a good Wake Forest team. The Fighting Irish come into this game off to a perfect 3-0 start and are ranked No. 8 in the country. The thing is, Notre Dame has had to grind out wins in each 3 games and arguably should have lost last week at home to Vanderbilt.
I was really impressed with how well Wake Forest played in their last game at home against a very good Boston College team. This Demon Deacons offense is no joke, as they put up over 500 yards of offense against the Eagles.
Wake Forest has had ample amount of time to get ready for this game, as they last played on Sept. 13th. They not only have an edge in rest, but I think the homefield advantage is huge here, especially with this being Notre Dame's first game on the road in 2018.
The Demon Deacons more than held their own last year in South Bend, losing by just 11-points as a 14.5-point dog. I not only think they get the cover at home this time around, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Take Wake Forest!
|09-21-18||Washington State v. USC -3.5||36-39||Loss||-110||44 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC -
This is the perfect buy-low spot on the Trojans. All the hype around USC being a playoff contender is completely out the window after the Trojans suffered back-to-back losses to fall to 1-2. The thing is, it was more of a result of a brutal schedule, as those two losses came at Stanford and at Texas. You have to keep in mind just how hard it is to win on the road against top tier teams and the fact that the Trojans are sending out a true freshman at quarterback.
J.T. Daniels has had his ups and downs, but despite his 1-3 TD-INT ratio, I think he has a really bright future at USC. This could very well be his breakout performance here at home against a Washington State team that is getting way too much respect after their 3-0 start.
The Cougars should be 3-0 right now, as they opened up the season against the likes of Wyoming, San Jose St and Eastern Washington. I look for Washington State to show their true colors in their first real road test of 2018. Keep in mind the Cougars only returned 10 starters from last year and had to replace their all-time leading passer in Luke Falk, as well as their leading rusher and top two receivers.
The other big thing here is the Trojans are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder, not only to avoid to their 3rd straight loss, but to get revenge from last year's upset loss at Washington State, when they were No. 5 in the country. Take USC!
|09-21-18||Penn State v. Illinois +29||63-24||Loss||-110||100 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Illinois +
The Nittany Lions are getting way to much respect from the books in Friday's game at Illinois. The home teams have a huge advantage in these weekday games and I look for the Fighting Illini faithful to show their support in what is easily their biggest home on the schedule for 2018. Not to mention this is a much-improved Illinois team from last year's 2-10 squad.
The Fighting Illini are going to do everything in their power here to pull off the upset. While I don't see that happening, they got an excellent shot here of keeping this within 4 scores. Penn State has won big in each of their last two games, but have not started strong and let's not forget about that near upset at home in Week 1 against Appalachian State.
The even bigger key here is the spot for the Nittany Lions. It's going to be extremely hard for Penn State to give Illinois their full attention with arguably their biggest game of the season on deck next Saturday, as they will host Ohio State. A game that very well could decide the Big Ten East and the Nittany Lions' playoff hopes.
The goal here isn't to embarrass Illinois, but just make sure they get a win and avoid any injuries, so even if this does get out of hand early, the backdoor will be wide open. Take Illinois!
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple||17-31||Loss||-105||28 h 42 m||Show|
3* Tulsa/Temple AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +
Temple is getting way too much respect here against a Tulsa team that is a lot better than most people realize. The Golden Hurricane went just 2-10 last year and are off to a 1-2 start, but one of those losses was on the road to Texas, a game they only lost by 7-points as a 21-point underdog.
They let one get away at home this past Saturday against Arkansas State, while Temple avoided an 0-3 start with a shocking 35-14 win at Maryland. I think that's definitely got the number a lot higher than it should be.
The Owls were a desperate team going into that game against the Terps and I think Maryland came into that contest with a big head and just thought they were going to roll over Temple at home. Look for the Owls to come back down to earth in this one. Keep in mind they lost at home to both Villanova and Buffalo to start the season.
Tulsa has had no problem scoring under head coach Philip Montgomery. Even last year when they lost a ton on the offensive side of the ball they averaged nearly 30 ppg. The big problem has been the defense, but this year's stop unit looks to be much improved over previous versions. After facing a couple of really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State, I look for them to show out a little bit here on defense against a very mediocre Temple offense.
Golden Hurricane are 12-3 ATS as a road dog under Montgomery, including a 10-2 ATS mark against conference opponents. Take Tulsa!
|09-15-18||Washington v. Utah +172||21-7||Loss||-100||2 h 5 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Utah
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|09-15-18||Ohio State v. TCU +14||40-28||Win||100||1 h 22 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on TCU
|09-15-18||USC v. Texas -3||14-37||Win||100||104 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Prime-Time (USC/TEXAS) NO-BRAINER on Texas -
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Longhorns at home. There was so much hype around this Texas team in year two under Tom Herman and that balloon was popped in Week 1 when they lost outright as a double-digit favorite at Maryland. They followed that up with a mere 28-21 win at home over Tulsa as a 21-point favorite.
Clearly there was a little too much hype on this team, but I also don't think it's time to write them off. They lost to Maryland last year and were a few breaks away from being a 10-win team. That's also a better Terrapins team than people realize. As for the 7-point win against Tulsa, they were up 21-0 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Maybe they started looking ahead to this game against USC?
A game you know they have had circled on the calendar. Not just because it's USC, but they want revenge from last year's crushing 24-27 overtime loss, where they really outplayed Sam Darnold and the Trojans. Darnold is gone and this USC team is down a notch or two from last year. We saw Stanford get their revenge against them last week, holding the Trojans to just 3-points and 332 yards. Freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels looked every bit a freshman on the road and I see no reason not to expect the same thing here. Take Texas!
|09-15-18||Colorado State v. Florida UNDER 58.5||10-48||Win||100||31 h 36 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Florida UNDER
I just think the number here is way too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Florida and Colorado State. The Rams defense couldn't have looked much worse in their first two games, as they gave up 43 to Hawaii and 45 to Colorado. I think a lot of that had to do with just how good those two teams are offensively.
Colorado State turned around and held Arkansas to just 27 points in a 34-27 outright win as a 14-point dog. They held the Razorbacks scoreless over the final 20+ minutes of that game. Florida put up 53 in their opener against Charleston Southern, but showed their true colors in a 27-16 loss at home to Kentucky. I like Dan Mullen and expect big things from him in Gainesville, but I'm just not a fan of Felipe Franks at quarterback and the fact that he led the team with 44 yards rushing against Kentucky is a huge concern.
The key here is I think we are going to see a highly motivated Florida team on the defensive side of the ball off that embarrassing home loss. Colorado State has put up 34 twice against a couple of bad defenses in Hawaii and Arkansas, but only managed 13 against in-state rival Colorado. I just don't see how these teams combine for anywhere close to this number. Take the UNDER!
|09-15-18||LSU +10.5 v. Auburn||22-21||Win||100||70 h 10 m||Show|
3* LSU/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU +
There's just not the same hype around this LSU program as there has been in years past. Not many people gave this team much of a shot against Miami in their opener and they came out with a chip on their shoulder and laid it on the Hurricanes in a 33-17 win. Auburn on the other hand is a team people were high on and the hype around this team only got stronger after they knocked off Washington.
I just think we are seeing an inflated number here and too much value with LSU to pass up. I know Auburn has a great defense, but so does LSU, which is no surprise given that Dave Aranda is their defensive coordinator. I know it came against a FCS school, but that same Miami offense LSU held to 17 points put up 77 in their next game, recording the largest margin of victory in school history.
I think this is going to turn out to be an old-school defensive battle that could either way in the 4th quarter. All we need is for LSU to lose by 10 or less and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they beat Auburn again (won 27-23 at home last year). LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record and closed out last year going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take LSU!
|09-15-18||Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -14||17-22||Loss||-110||114 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -
I got no problem laying the two touchdowns with the Fighting Irish here at home against the Commodores. Notre Dame is coming off a less than impressive 24-16 win over Ball State last week, a game in which the Fighting Irish were favored to win by 33.5-points. On the flip side of this, Vanderbilt has been impressive in their 2-0 start, taking on Middle Tenn 35-7 as a 3.5-point favorite and Nevada 41-10 as a 10-point favorite.
What people are overlooking with Notre Dame's sluggish showing agains the Cardinals, is that was a massive letdown spot after that massive Week 1 game at home against Michigan. At the same time, that Ball State team was way undervalued coming into this season. They went just 2-10 last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries and they had 16 starters back.
As for Vanderbilt, we have seen this story before with this team. Last year everyone was talking about how they were going to give Alabama a run for their money at home after a 3-0 start, but they got annihilated 59-0. A lot of people are putting Notre Dame on upset alert and you can bet Brian Kelly will use that to have his team 100% locked in for this one and that should be all it takes for them to win here in a blowout. Take Notre Dame!
|09-15-18||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +18||37-27||Win||100||119 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +
The public is going to be all over Oklahoma in this one and I believe the books have set the line here to where they feel ISU has a great shot at covering. The Sooners have looked good in blowout wins over FAU (63-14) and UCLA (49-21). The even bigger thing to why people are falling in love with this team, is Kyler Murray has played really well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield.
Murray is a good player, but he struggled with his accuracy at Texas A&M. I think after facing a couple of mediocre defenses, both at home, he's going to find things a lot more difficult against a good ISU defense in what will be quite the atmosphere at Jack Trice Stadium. This Cyclones fan base is extremely loyal and this is the one home game they have been looking forward to since the schedule was released.
Keep in mind Oklahoma just lost their top running back in running back Rodney Anderson and this Cyclones defense just held a good Iowa rushing attack to just 105 yards.
Sure there's the revenge angle for Oklahoma after ISU won 38-31 in Norman last year. The Sooners may very well get their revenge, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Cyclones pulled off the upset and won outright. Take Iowa State!
|09-14-18||Georgia State v. Memphis UNDER 59||22-59||Loss||-112||53 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER on Memphis -
I think the books have completely missed the mark here with the total for Friday's non-conference slate that has Memphis hosting Georgia State. A lot of people are just going to assume that Memphis is going to light up the scoreboard against this Panthers team after they allowed 41 to NC State last week.
That was a very misleading score, as the Tigers added a couple of garbage touchdowns late in that game, one right after Georgia State failed to covert on 4th down and the other after a fumble where they had to go just 12 yards. The Wolfpack also got a field goal on the final play of the 2nd half.
I also think people are a little too high on this Memphis offense because they put up 66 in the opener against a bad Mercer team. The offense couldn't make a play when it needed to against a pretty bad Navy defense last week and they simply aren't going to be as potent as they have the last couple of years after losing one of their all-time great quarterbacks in Riley Ferguson.
UNDER has cashed in 24 of Georgia State's last 32 games, including 9 of their last 12 on the road and 9 of their last 12 in non-conference play. Take the UNDER!
|09-13-18||Boston College v. Wake Forest +6.5||41-34||Loss||-110||50 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +
There's just too much value here with the Demon Deacons catching almost a touchdown on their home field against their ACC Atlantic rivals in Boston College. The Eagles were expected to be much improved and have looked the part in blowout wins over UMass (55-21) and Holy Cross (62-14).
Wake Forest is another team people were high on coming into the year, as Dave Clawson has really done a nice job of turning the program around. However, I think a lot of people jumped off the bandwagon when projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton was suspended for the first 3 games. I think the book knew the public would be on BC and inflated the line knowing so.
This line suggest that BC would be a double-digit favorite over Wake on a neutral field and I'm just not buying it. The loss of Hilton has been eased by the emergence of true freshman Sam Hartman, who has completed 61.5% of his attempts for nearly 8 yards a pop. He's also proven a decent threat on the ground, rushing for 128 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and a score in 2 games.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Wake Forest won this game outright. The Demon Deacons are 22-12 ATS as an underdog under Clawson, 17-7 ATS under Clawson at home and 14-3 under Clawson when coming off a win by 21 or more points. Take Wake Forest!
|09-08-18||Rice +18 v. Hawaii||29-43||Win||100||65 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Rice +
Hawaii has been one of the biggest surprises in the early goings of 2018. The Rainbow Warriors went on the road in Week Zero and took out Colorado State 43-34 as a 17-point dog. They then came back and knocked off Navy 59-41 as a 13.5-point dog. Two outright wins as a double-digit dogs will definitely get the attention of the books and now we see Hawaii laying 3 scores against Rice at home.
I think this is a huge overreaction and it's a lot different going into the fight as the heavy favorite compared to the underdog. A lot of people will just expect them to keep it going against a Rice team went 1-11 last year, especially after the Owns barely snuck by Priarie View in their opener 31-28 and lost at home to Houston 27-45.
I was actually really impressed with how well Rice played against a good Houston team. The Owls were in that game late and actually led 27-17 midway through the 3rd quarter. They put up 439 yards against a talented Houston defense. It looks like they have found something in Vandy grad transfer Shawn Stankavage, who was 20 of 31 for 204 yards and 3 scores against the Cougars.
Hawaii is going to put up points with that air-raid offense, but they are also going to give up a lot of points. They allowed 34 to Colorado State and 41 to Navy. Note that Colorado State managed just 13 points and 284 total yards in their next game against Colorado. If the Warriors aren't careful, they could go from winning as a double-digit dog to losing as a double-digit favorite. Take Rice!
|09-08-18||Michigan State v. Arizona State +7||13-16||Win||100||95 h 12 m||Show|
4* Prime-Time (ESPN) GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
A lot of people are going to be quick to make excuses for Michigan State and their sloppy showing in their home opener against Utah State, where they were fortunate to walk away with a 38-31 win as a massive 23.5-point favorite. They will say the Spartans are slow-starters and didn't give the Aggies their full attention with this big game on deck. I'm not buying it.
I expect another sloppy showing from Michigan State. People don't realize how hard it is for these midwest teams to travel out west and the Big Ten has had more than their fair share of troubles when having to play on the road against the Pac-12.
You also can't ignore how good the Sun Devils looked in their opener against UTSA, which was also the debut for new head coach Herm Edwards. Not many people were high on Arizona State going into this season and I think that lack of respect has this team playing hungry and flying way under the radar. They demolished the Roadrunners 49-7, while outgaining UTSA by 283 yards. The defense allowed a mere 2 rushing yards on 34 attempts and forced 3 turnovers.
If they can slow down Michigan State's running game, which struggled to get going against Utah St, they not only will cover this spread, but they will win the game outright. Take Arizona State!
|09-08-18||UTEP +24 v. UNLV||Top||24-52||Loss||-111||103 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +
After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona.
What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been.
We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV!
|09-08-18||Fresno State +3 v. Minnesota||14-21||Loss||-115||60 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +
I expect the public to be all over Minnesota here, as they won't be able to help themselves but take a Big Ten team laying less than a field goal at home against a team from the MWC. Especially after the Gophers annihilated New Mexico State 48-10 as a 22.5-point favorite this past Saturday.
That performance against the Aggies is nothing to be excited about. New Mexico State is way down this year. They were missing a ton of starters on defense and that's the same offense that managed 135 total yards against Wyoming in 'Week Zero.' That same Wyoming defense gave up 41 points to a Washington State that only had 4 starters back on offense.
The other thing that stands out to me is the play of Gophers new true freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad. He threw for 220 yards and 2 scores, but was a mere 16 of 33 passing. Luckily Minnesota had their way on the ground (295 yards on 47 attempts).
The thing is, they aren't going to be able to run all over Fresno State. The Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a defense that only gave up 113 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry last year. Annexstad and the Gophers offense is going to be forced into a lot more passing situations and that's going to be a problem.
The Bulldogs put up 79 points in their opener against Idaho and should have one of their better offenses in recent memory with 8 starters back. I think they do more than enough here to get a win on the road against Minnesota.
Bulldogs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-confernce games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Fresno State!
|09-08-18||Iowa State v. Iowa UNDER 49||3-13||Win||100||95 h 41 m||Show|
4* In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER
I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup on Saturday when the Cyclones travel across the state to take on in-state rival Iowa. The Cyclones didn't even get to play a full quarter before their opener against South Dakota State was canceled because of weather. The Hawkeyes meanwhile overcame a sluggish start to defeat Northern Illinois 33-7.
The Hawkeyes only had 3 points just about midway thru the 3rd quarter before they exploded for 30 in the final 23 minutes of regulation. Despite a talented quarterback in Nathan Stanley, this is still your same old Iowa offense that wants to ground and pound their way down the field.
I think they are going to have a really tough time moving the ball against a Cyclones defense that has 6 starters back from a stop unit that only allowed 20.9 ppg in 2017.
As for Iowa State and their offense, they caught a tough break not being able to work out the kinks against a FCS team in their opener. I think they too will struggle to score. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when it's a late kickoff like this. Last 5 times the Cyclones have visited Iowa City, they have failed to score more than 20 points in any game and were held to single-digits in 4 of 5 meetings.
Iowa held a Northern Illinois team that many think are the favorites to win the MAC, to just 7 points and 211 total yards. That's pretty impressive given the Huskies returned 8 starters from a unit that averaged 28.9 ppg and 378 ypg last year. Take the UNDER!
|09-08-18||Memphis -6.5 v. Navy||21-22||Loss||-110||88 h 58 m||Show|
4* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -
I don't see the Tigers having any problem here winning by at least double-digits on the road against Navy. I think a lot of people are sleeping on this Memphis team due to the fact that they lost a really good quarterback in Riley Ferguson, but look out for junior Brady White, who is a grad transfer from Arizona State (Memphis head coach Mike Norvell was the OC when White first started out with ASU).
I know it came against Mercer, but it's hard to ignore his stat line in the opener. White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and 5 scores. The Tigers also rushed for 324 yards. Keep in mind this is an offense that averaged 45.5 ppg and 532 ypg last year and 7 starters back.
The Midshipmen had no answer for Hawaii's high-flying offense in their opener, as the Rainbow Warriors put up 59 in an 18-point win as a 13.5-point dog. Hawaii's Cole McDonald completed 30 of 41 for 428 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Memphis has 8 starters back on defense in what is their 3rd season under defensive coordinator Chris Ball. They should be greatly improved on that side of the ball and they looked sharp in the opener, holding Mercer to just 174 total yards and 8 first downs. I think they are going to be ready for that triple-option and Navy is not a team that can play from behind. Take Memphis!
|09-07-18||TCU v. SMU +22.5||42-12||Loss||-110||60 h 19 m||Show|
3* TCU/SMU Friday Night ATS DESTROYER on SMU +
Analysis will be posted shortly
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5||24-3||Win||100||297 h 17 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Labor Day Total DESTROYER on Virginia Tech/Florida State UNDER
I think a lot of people are going to look at how little these two teams have coming back defensively and be quick to back the OVER. While both FSU and Virginia Tech will lack experience on defense, these are two top notch programs that recruit extremely well. I expect both teams to be just fine defensively this year.
I also think we have two solid defensive coordinators that will have their units ready to go with all the extra time they have had to prepare for this game. Virginia Tech's Bud Foster has been doing this for ever and I really like new FSU defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett, who spent the last 3 years at Michigan State.
UNDER is 35-17 in Virginia Tech's last 52 conference games and 20-7 in Florida State's last 27 vs ACC opponents. Take the UNDER!
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||36 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Labor Day ATS NO-BRAINER on Va Tech +
Florida State is getting way too much respect here against the Hokies. The Seminoles took a turn for the worse in 2017, as they managed to go just 7-6 and were lucky to finish with a winning record after a dreadful 3-6 start. Most are just assuming that FSU will bounce back and return to elite status, but I don't think that's going to be the case.
Not to take anything away from Willie Taggart, but he's not on the same level as Jimbo Fisher. In fact, Taggart has a losing record at 47-50 over 8 seasons as a head coach. With a new head coach comes scheme changes and the players that are left over don't always fit the new systems.
I just have a lot more trust in Virginia Tech coming out and playing well. The Hokies will be in year 3 under head coach Justin Fuente and he backed up his 10-4 debut season with a 9-4 record in 2017. Va Tech's offense should be explosive with 7 starters back , including talented sophomore quarterback Joshua Jackson.
The Hokies do lose a lot defensively, but I don't think the drop off will be as big as some are expecting. FSU loses just as much defensively and I have a lot more confidence in Virginia Tech's offense being able to stay on the field and finish off drives with touchdowns. Take Virginia Tech!
|09-02-18||Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5||Top||17-33||Win||100||372 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU +
I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away.
LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup.
I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU!
|09-01-18||Louisville v. Alabama OVER 55.5||Top||14-51||Win||100||419 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Alabama OVER
I don't see anyway the final score between Alabama and Louisville stays UNDER 65 points. Other sharps couldn't agree more, as this total has grown quite a bit from the original number.
Over the last 5 years, the Crimson Tide's lowest scoring average for a season is 35.1 ppg, which is pretty impressive given they have been primarily a running team. Last year they averaged 37.1 ppg and averaged 251 ypg on the ground and just 193 ypg through the air.
Alabama is still going to run all over people, especially with the talent they have coming back at running back and how stacked they are on the offensive line. They are also going to exploit teams through the air behind sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. I know it's up in the air whether Tua or Jalen Hurts will start, but I expect Tagovailoa to get most of the reps. Not to mention the Crimson Tide will be going up against a Louisville defense that returns just 4 starters from a unit that wasn't very good in 2017.
Scoring on Alabama is never an easy task, as they routinely have one of the best defenses in the country. They will be strong again on that side of the ball, but they do only have 3 starters back. I also think Louisville's offense isn't getting near the respect they deserve because of the fact that they lost Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals have some legit playmakers at receiver and sophomore Juwan Pass is extremely talented (No. 7 recruit at his position coming out of high school).
I see this being a shootout and that's been the case in recent years for Alabama in these neutral site games. The OVER is 21-8 in the Crimson Tide's last 29 games played on a neutral field. Take the OVER!
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame OVER 47.5||17-24||Loss||-115||418 h 28 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Michigan/Notre Dame OVER
There's been plenty of talk going around about how good this Michigan defense is going to be in 2018, so the public is going to be drawn to playing the UNDER in their games, especially against a top tier team like Notre Dame, who is returning 9 starters from a defense that only gave up 21.5 ppg last year.
While I'm not about to say that these two teams won't be as good as advertised on defense, I think it's got the total way to low given the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball. In Jim Harbaugh's first 3 years at Michigan, the Wolverines have got average to below-average play out of the quarterback position. That's no longer going to be the case with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson now the starter.
As for how the Notre Dame offense will be able to score against this Michigan defense. One of the toughest things for elite defenses is to defend mobile quarterbacks and the Irish have one of the best dual-threats in the country in Brandon Wimbush. They are also a lot more talented on the offensive line than people are giving them credit for after losing two 1st round draft picks.
I think both teams are going to have some explosive plays offensively that lead to quick scores. I also think we could see some turnovers by both teams that lead to quick scores, which will ultimately push this OVER the mark.
Keep in mind, despite the less than stellar QB play, the OVER is 24-14-1 in Michigan games since Harbaugh came to town. OVER is also 7-1-1 in the Wolverine's last 9 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in Notre Dame's last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take the OVER!
|09-01-18||Cincinnati v. UCLA OVER 59||26-17||Loss||-110||418 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on UCLA OVER
If there's one thing we learned with Chip Kelly in his stint with the NFL, he's going to run his up-tempo offensive attack regardless of the talent on hand. Win or lose, UCLA is going to push the pace offensively this year. With a defense that doesn't have near the talent as year's past, it's going to ultimately lead to a lot of high-scoring games.
So while this might seem like a high total for this matchup, I don't think it's anywhere close to what it should be. I look for UCLA and Cincinnati to fly over the mark here.
One of the reasons this total isn't higher, is the fact that Cincinnati has really struggled offensively the past two seasons. The Bearcats averaged just 19.3 ppg in 2016 and barely improved to 20.9 ppg last year. However, I'm expecting big improvements in year two under offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and more than anything the UCLA defense is going to give up a ton of yards and points with how much they are going to be on the field.
As a head coach at Oregon, the OVER went 32-15 when Kelly's Ducks were listed as the favorite and 19-5 at home. I expect more of the same now that he's a Bruin. Take the OVER!
|09-01-18||Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10||Top||7-33||Win||100||414 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -
Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC.
Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little.
This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory.
The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick).
While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10!
|09-01-18||West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5||40-14||Loss||-110||18 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee +
To no surprise, the public is all over West Virginia in this one. There's a ton of hype around the Mountaineers due to the fact that they bring back one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier. Not to mention, nobody wants anything to do with the Volunteers, who are coming off a disastrous 4-8 campaign in 2017 and are undergoing a coaching change. All of this has Tennessee extremely undervalued and I'll gladly take the points with the Vols in this one.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Tennessee is just how much talent they have on their roster. Butch Jones might not have been a great head coach, but the guy could recruit. That's why there's been so much hype around this team the past few seasons.
It was laughable how the coaching search went, but in the end I like who they got. Jeremy Pruitt was the defensive coordinator at Alabama the past two years and he's going to change the culture in Knoxville. He's going to have his team fired up for this game and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright.
A big reason for that is I think they can go score for score with Grier and that West Virginia offense, as the Mountaineers only have 5 starters back from a defense that allowed 31.5 ppg. Not to mention they lose arguably their two best players. Take Tennessee!
|08-31-18||Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 51||3-34||Loss||-107||94 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin/WKU OVER
I'm not sure what the books are thinking by setting the total this low, but I will gladly jump on the OVER. In Wisconsin's last 3 home openers, they have eclipsed the total set here on their own. The Badgers put up 58 on Miami (OH) in 2015, 54 two years ago against Akron and 59 last season against Utah State.
I think there's a really good chance that trend continues. Wisconsin returns 9 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook, running back Jonathan Taylor (Heisman candidate) and all 5 starters on what many believe is the best unit in the country. WKU simply doesn't have the size or talent on defense to keep Wisconsin from doing whatever they want in this one.
I also think we could see the Hilltoppers score a few more points than expected. While WKU only has 3 starters back on offense, they should actually be improved on that side of the ball, as last year's unit was a complete mess. They will also be up against an inexperienced Wisconsin defense, which could struggle early on with only 4 starters back from last year. Note that the Badgers have already lost two projected starters up front in defensive ends Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Take the OVER!
|08-31-18||Syracuse v. Western Michigan UNDER 64||55-42||Loss||-115||393 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Over/Under PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse/Western Michigan UNDER
I just don't see Friday's opener between Syracuse and Western Michigan coming anywhere close to the total set here by the books. There's a perception out there that the OVER is a strong play when it comes to games involving Syracuse. A lot of that has to do with how poor they have been defensively and the fact that they run an up-tempo offense.
It's played a large part in the books routinely inflating the total in the Orange's games and as a result the UNDER has been the wise investment. In fact, the UNDER is 18-6 over the first two seasons with Babers as head coach. That includes an 11-3 UNDER mark in the first half of the season. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is perfect 7-0 going back over the years when Syracuse is listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
There will definitely be some games in which Syracuse puts up a big number, but I don't think it will be against the Broncos. Western Michigan only gave up 29 ppg last year (25.9 ppg if you exclude overtime) despite being in the first year of a new system. I think this defense is going to come out and surprise some people in this matchup, as they should feed off a rowdy home crowd that will excited for the rare opportunity to host a Power 5 team.
I also don't see the Broncos lighting up the scoreboard. Western Michigan has some nice pieces coming back, but lose their All-American left tackle and star running back Javion Franklin, who rushed for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores. The Orange were a lot better than the 32.2 ppg they ended up allowing for the season, as they only allowed 24.8 ppg over the first 9 games and injuries were the big reason for the decline. Take the UNDER!
|08-30-18||Northwestern +3 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||100||96 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Limit PLAY OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +
The only real concern here with Northwestern is the health of starting quarterback Clayton Thorson, who is listed as questionable to play. While I can't guarantee he will play, I would absolutely shocked if Thorson wasn't out their for the Wildcats first series. He's been practicing in full for quite some time and the reports out of fall camp that he looks even better than he did before the injury.
I just don't see anyway that Northwestern loses this game with him on the field. Purdue has just 4 starters back on defense and that stop unit was the main reason they went 7-5 last year. While I don't think they are going to be as bad as some think, they aren't going to be as good as last year's squad and will struggle against talented teams like the Wildcats.
On the flip side of this, Northwestern has 7 staters back from a defense that held Purdue to just 13 points last year. I could see the Boilmakers putting up a few more points, but not near enough to give them a chance to win this game.
It's also worth noting that the Wildcats come into this game having covered 8 of their last 9 conference games, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Big Ten road games and have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with Purdue. Take Northwestern!
|08-25-18||Wyoming v. New Mexico State OVER 45.5||29-7||Loss||-110||253 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Opening Day Total DESTRUCTION on Wyoming/New Mexico St OVER
These two teams should have no problem going over this extremely low total for college football. The public take on Wyoming is that they are going to be way down offensively after losing an NFL-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. The thing is, the Cowboys offense didn't produce anywhere close to their potential last year, as they went from averaging 35.9 ppg in 2016 to only putting up 23.5 ppg.
What gets overlooked with the loss of Allen is the fact that Wyoming has 9 of their other 10 starters back. The new starter will be red-shirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who beat out the senior Nick Smith (has 2 career starts), which I think can only be viewed as a positive on Vander Waal's potential.
New Mexico State wil have 9 starters back on a defense that gave up just 29.7 ppg, but they won't have their dynamic pass rusher, Cedric Wilson (team-high 8.5 sacks last year), as out the first two games. Starting free safety Ron LaForce, who had a 104 tackles last year is also questionable to play with a foot injury.
On top of that, I think the defense is a bit overrated for the Aggies, as last year's numbers were greatly aided by playing in the Sun Belt (Independent in 2018) and they did give up 35+ in half of their games. Take the OVER!
|08-25-18||Hawaii v. Colorado State OVER 55||Top||43-34||Win||100||81 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Mountain West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawaii/Colorado State OVER
These two teams combined for 72 points in Colorado State's 51-21 win at Hawaii last year and have now gone OVER the total in each of their last 4 meetings. I know both teams don't have a lot coming back on the offensive side of the ball, but keep in mind the total last year was 66, so that's been taken into account with this number.
While Colorado State has to replace starting quarterback Nick Stevens, as well as their to p rusher and 4 of their top 5 receivers, the Rams have averaged at least 30 ppg in each of the first 3 years under head coach Mike Bobo. The loss of Stevens was also eased by the addition of Washington grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels.
Hawaii's offense would have been in good shape had Dru Brown not unexpectedly transferred to Oklahoma State, but I don't think it's going to be a massive drop off without him. The unit really can't be much worse than the one that only averaged 22.8 ppg last year.
The other big key here is that while both offenses are working in new faces, neither of these teams have a lot coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Both stop units only have 5 starters back Colorado State is also working in a new defensive coordinator, so I definitely don't expect them to be sharp.
All we need is for these two teams to average 2 touchdowns a quarter to secure a win and I think they have no problem doing that. Take the OVER!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia +5||Top||26-23||Win||100||146 h 31 m||Show|
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia +
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me.
Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good.
I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia OVER 44||26-23||Win||100||69 h 57 m||Show|
4* Alabama/Georgia Total NO BRAINER on Georgia OVER
The public perception here is that this is going to be a very low-scoring national championship game, as we have two teams that want to run the football and are considered to be elite on the defensive side of the ball. What gets overlooked is the talent that both of these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and that 44 points is an extremely low total for today's college game.
Another thing that I think people fall into a trap with is how great these teams look defensively in the semifinals and forget that they have had over a month to prepare for those opponents. People were saying the same thing the last two years with Alabama and Clemson and both of those turned into shootouts. In fact, each of the first 3 title games since the playoffs was introduced has seen at least 62 points. All we need to get a win here is 45. That's less than 2 touchdowns a quarter. Take the OVER!
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||298 h 30 m||Show|
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -
I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game.
A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win.
There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama!
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||290 h 10 m||Show|
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida +
I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team.
A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one.
Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida!
|01-01-18||South Carolina v. Michigan -8||26-19||Loss||-107||10 h 16 m||Show|
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -
I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh.
The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan!
|12-30-17||Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45||34-24||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Orange Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin UNDER
I think we have everything you want for a low-scoring game here in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown between Wisconsin and Miami. Both these teams are limited offensively, but are dominant on the defensive side of the ball.
It's no secret that the Badgers offense is built on their ground game. Wisconsin ranked 21st in rushing (229.2 ypg) compared to just 97th in passing (187 ypg). Miami has a very talented and athletic defensive front 7 and I think it will make it very hard for the Badgers to run the ball effectively. As for the Hurricane's offense, it's had more than their fair share of problems. In the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, they only managed 3 points and 197 total yards. Wisconsin comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense in the country, allowing just 253.3 ypg, ranking 2nd against the run and 4th against the pass.
UNDER is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games, including a 3-1-1 mark in their last 5 bowl games. UNDER is also 16-5 in Miami's last 21 games overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games. Take the UNDER!
|12-29-17||USC v. Ohio State -7||Top||7-24||Win||100||226 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State -
I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention.
Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire.
For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State!
|12-28-17||Virginia v. Navy +1||7-49||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
4* Military Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on Navy +
I like the value here with the Midshipmen at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia in the Military Bowl. Navy is simply not getting enough respect here, especially given that this game is being played on their home field, which is a big advantage in these bowl games.
The perception is that these triple-option teams are at a disadvantage in bowl games, as their opponents have ample amounts of time to prepare for their unique offensive attack. What gets overlooked is just how much the opponents hate preparing and playing these triple-option attacks. It's also worth pointing out that Navy has been a covering machine of late in bowl games, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. That includes a trip to this same bowl in 2015, where they knocked off Pitt 44-28 as a mere 3-point favorite.
Virginia surprised a lot of people by getting to a bowl game this year, as they were coming off a 2-10 season in 2016 and picked by many to finish in the basement of the ACC. While they had some nice wins, including a 42-23 victory over Boise State, for the most part they struggled against the better teams they faced and it's also important to note they went just 1-5 over their final 6 games.
This is also not a great matchup for Virginia. While the Cavaliers finished a respectable 36th in total defense, giving up just 357.9 ypg, they were just 82nd in the country at stopping the run, allowing 178.3 ypg. I just don't see them stopping this Midshipmen rushing attack, that rushed for an average of 343 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. Virginia also had their struggles offensively, as they were 126th in rushing (98.8 ypg). If they don't throw it well, their defense is going to be on the field the entire game and that's just not a recipe for success against the Midshipmen. Take Navy!
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||20-27||Win||100||32 h 10 m||Show|
4* Pinstripe Bowl ATS NO BRAINER on Iowa -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Eagles. Iowa has had a really rough stretch in bowl games, as they have lost 5 straight postseason games after starting out 6-3 under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
I believe a big reason for the Hawkeyes recent struggles is they have consistently been picked for bigger bowl games because of how well their fans travel and it's forced them to play a much tougher opponent than them. Note that all 5 losses have come with Iowa being the underdog, as their last 5 opponents in bowl games have been Florida, Stanford, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
No disrespect to Boston College, but this is finally an opponent that is on the Hawkeyes level and one I believe that Iowa matches up very well against. The Eagles are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensively, but that plays right into the strength of the Iowa defense.
At the same time, the Hawkeyes are a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success offensive and BC finished the year ranked 101st in the country vs the run, giving up 198.4 ypg, while giving up 5.0 yards/carry (first time since 2012 they have allowed more than 4.0 yards/carry). The Hawkeyes should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should be more than enough for them to win here by at least a field goal. Take Iowa!
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State||Top||13-42||Loss||-110||75 h 33 m||Show|
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss +
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion.
All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here.
The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|12-26-17||Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5||14-36||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
3* Quick Lane Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Duke -
I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Devils laying less than a touchdown against Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. Duke got off to a red-hot 4-0 start to the season, which included a 41-17 blowout win over Northwestern. They would then proceed to lose 6 straight and sitting at 4-6 needed to win their final 2 just to become bowl eligible. They did just that. Knocking off Georgia Tech 43-20 at home and closing out the year with a 31-23 win at Wake Forest.
I like the Blue Devil's chances of carrying over that momentum here in their bowl game against the Huskies. While Northern Illinois posted an 8-4 record, I just don't think this is that good of a team. Sure they knocked off Nebraska in non-confernece, but that turned out to be a pretty bad Cornhuskers team. The MAC was also way down this year and it's shown in bowl play so far with conference champ, Toledo, losing 34-0 to Appalachian State. East Division winner Akron lost 50-3 to FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl and Central Michigan, who posted a 6-2 mark in MAC play lost 37-14 to Wyoming in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
On paper these look like to very similar teams with sub-par offenses and really good defenses, but when you factor in the much tougher strength of schedule for Duke it's clear that the Blue Devils are the superior side. Take Duke!
|12-24-17||Houston v. Fresno State UNDER 49||27-33||Loss||-102||106 h 1 m||Show|
4* Hawaii Bowl Total NO BRAINER on Fresno State UNDER
I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, which features the Houston Cougars and Fresno State Bulldogs. There's a lot to like in this matchup when it comes to a low-scoring game.
The Bulldogs are a perfect team to back when it comes to an UNDER. The Bulldogs feature one of the best defenses in the country that not many people know about. Fresno State finished 9th in the country, giving up just 17.2 ppg and were 16th in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg. Keep in mind that's with playing non-conference games against the likes of Washington and Alabama, where they allowed a combined 89 points and 917 yards. Take away those two teams and this team only surrendered around 296 ypg and 12.3 ppg against their other 11 opponents.
Houston averaged 28.4 ppg, but were far from a great offensive team and I think the best supporter of that is they only had 16 points against Arizona and 24 against Texas Tech. A lot of their high-scoring games in the AAC game against teams that like to play at a fast pace, which increase the number of possessions. I think the Cougars have a really hard time scoring here, especially with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson having left the program to join Dan Mullen at Florida.
As good as the Fresno State defense has been, there offense is very limited and really struggled to score against the better teams they played. Houston has a legit defense, led by one of the best defensive players in the country in Ed Oliver and should be able to keep them in check. Take the UNDER!
|12-23-17||Appalachian State v. Toledo UNDER 62||Top||34-0||Win||100||81 h 32 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo UNDER
I think we have an inflated total here in the Dollar General Bowl. The public is going to see two teams that have put up some big numbers offensively behind two talented senior quarterbacks in Toledo's Logan Woodside and Appalachian State's Tyler Lamb. No question these two signal callers are talented, but I don't think the defenses are getting near enough respect here.
The Mountaineers only gave up 21.9 ppg and showed well in non-conference play against two quality opponents. They limited Georgia to just 31 and 368 total yards on the road and Wake Forest to just 20 points and 344 total yards. Toledo allowed 24 or fewer points in 8 of their 13 games and I think they are more than capable of slowing down Appalachian State. While the Mountaineers put up big numbers in Sun Belt play, they only scored 10-points in that game against Georgia and 19 against the Demon Deacons.
Another key factor here is that these two teams are going to be extremely familiar with one another, as they actually played against each other last bowl season. A game that only featured 59 points and that was with a 28-point outburst by the two teams in the 3rd quarter. Note that 7 of those 59 points came on a kickoff return for a TD. I just think given the familiarity here there's a good chance we see an even lower-scoring affair this time around. Take the UNDER!
|12-23-17||Army v. San Diego State -6.5||42-35||Loss||-110||16 h 38 m||Show|
4* Armed Forces Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -
I like the value here with the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown against the Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday. I think this is a perfect matchup for San Diego State, as they are very familiar with how to stop the triple-option attack given they play Air Force in the MWC. The Aztecs have owned these one-dimensional offenses, posting a 13-2 record straight up and a 12-3 mark against the spread.
This year shouldn't be any different, as San Diego State is once again stout on the defensive side of the ball. The Aztecs ranked 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 110.4 ypg and only allowed 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, San Diego State is also a team that really likes to run the football, as they were 11th in rushing (252.3 ypg) compared to just 118th in passing (157.9 ypg). Big key here is they at least offer a threat of throwing, plus they will be facing an Army defense that was just 68th vs the run, allowing 166.1 ypg. Take San Diego State!
|12-23-17||Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 66||34-38||Win||100||74 h 32 m||Show|
3* Birmingham Bowl Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech OVER
I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Saturday's Birmingham Bowl that features Texas Tech and South Florida. These are two high-powered offenses that like to play at a fast pace and aren't exactly stout on the defensive side of the ball.
The Red Raiders put up 34.3 ppg and were 17th in the country at 468.4 ypg. USF was even better at 38.3 ppg and ranked 9th in total offense at 508.7 ypg. We also have two really good passing attacks going up against defenses that are much better at stopping the run than they are the pass, which I believe is going to lead to a lot of big plays and quick scores.
I believe a big reason this total isn't north of 70 is the fact that the Bulls have a good defense, at least on paper. USF only gave up 22.5 ppg and ranked 28th in the nation, allowing just 342.6 ypg. Those are very misleading numbers, as the Bulls played a cupcake schedule, which included a lot of bad teams that struggled to score, including San Jose State, UConn, Illinois, Cincinnati and Tulane. The one legit offense they faced was in their last game of the season against UCF and they allowed 49 points in a game that featured 91 combined points. I think that's a lot closer to what we are going to see here. Take the OVER!
|12-22-17||UAB v. Ohio UNDER 58.5||6-41||Win||100||50 h 2 m||Show|
3* Bahamas Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on UAB UNDER
This might seem like a low total given that Ohio comes in ranked 8th in the country at 40.6 ppg and are facing a UAB team that averages a respectable 29.6 ppg. I just think that given the style of play of these two teams they will struggle to eclipse this total.
Both of these teams are are looking to establish the run and don't offer much of a passing threat. The Bobcats ranked 17th in rushing at 244.2 ypg, compared to just 97th in passing at 186.8 ypg. The Blazers were 37th in rushing at 190.2 ypg and 106th in passing at 174.4 ypg. I just don't think that there will be enough possessions for these two teams to light up the scoreboard. There's typically a lot less explosive plays on the ground than there are for teams that like to air it out and throw it deep.
At the same time, by running so much, the clock is going to be running constantly. Add in the extra time that each team has had to prepare for these fairly one dimensional offenses and I wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a defensive battle. Keep in mind that these two have to average more than two touchdowns a quarter to eclipse this mark.
UNDER was 7-1 in the Blazers last 8 games this season and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 8-3-1 in the Bobcats last 12 games played on a neutral field and 18-7-2 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|12-21-17||Temple -7 v. Florida International||Top||28-3||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple -
I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points.
Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7!
|12-19-17||Akron v. Florida Atlantic OVER 65||3-50||Loss||-110||10 h 52 m||Show|
4* Boca Raton Bowl Total NO-BRAINER on Akron OVER
There's a strong tendency for these bowl games to go OVER the total and I think we are going to see a very high scoring game tonight between Akron and FAU. We are expecting the Owls to do the heavy lifting here, though we also expect the Zips to have a strong showing on the offensive side of the ball.
Florida Atlantic comes in averaging 39.8 ppg and have a big advantage with this bowl game being played on their home field, where they put up 42 ppg and 535 ypg in the regular season. Akron simply doesn't have the defense to slow down this offensive attack. The Zips are 100th in the country against the run, giving up 197.2 ypg and will be facing an Owls offensive attack that ranked 6th in the nation with 283.2 ypg on the ground. FAU is also a fast-striking offense and it wouldn't shock me to see them have close to 40 points in the 3rd quarter.
Akron's offense isn't anything special, but I think they can score close to 30 here, and don't be surprised if a lot of those points come late after this one is out of hand. The Zips have a decent passing attack that likes to throw deep, which should lead to some quick scores, as they face an FAU defense that was much better against the run than the pass. The Owls finished a mere 92nd against the pass, giving up 242.5 ypg. Give me the OVER!
|12-16-17||Oregon -7 v. Boise State||Top||28-38||Loss||-110||56 h 8 m||Show|
5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon -
A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team.
Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach.
As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman.
On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down.
As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon!
|12-02-17||Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 52||27-21||Win||100||58 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Wisconsin UNDER
I like the value here the total in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Wisconsin. I just think the mark here has been set way too high for this matchup. I know the Badgers have had an easy schedule and haven't faced a lot of great offenses, but this defense has been up to the task and I think they are for real on that side of the ball. As good as the Buckeyes have been offensively, I think they struggle here.
While Ohio State put up great offensive numbers on the season, they did a lot of their damage against bad teams. This is also a team that only scored 16 on a Oklahoma defense that allowed 52 in a game and 30 or more 5 times. I just think that if you can take away the Buckeyes ground game, there offense struggles to move the ball. J.T. Barrett is not a great pocket passer and gets a lot of his big plays throwing deep against teams that have to load the box to stop the run. Wisconsin ranked 1st in the country, giving up only 80.5 ypg on the ground and held teams to just 2.6 yards/carry.
The other key here is that even if the Buckeyes are able to move, I don't think they score enough to push this over the mark. That's because I think the Badgers are going to have a miserable time running the ball. Wisconsin relies even more than Ohio State on the running game and the Buckeyes are simply too good up front on the defensive line to get pushed around. Urban Meyer and his defense will take away the running game and I just don't think Hornibrook can make enough plays for the Badgers to put together more than a few scoring drives. Take the UNDER 52!
|12-02-17||Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State||14-17||Win||100||58 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Fresno +
I think the books are taking full advantage of the public's love for Boise State and thus have created some great value here on Fresno State. The Bulldogs beat the Broncos last week 28-17 as 7-point home dog, but most just throw that game away because both teams had nothing to gain, as each had already secured their division titles and knew they would be facing each other again this Saturday.
I also think people are slow to give this Fresno State any love because of how big bad they have been. The Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and weren't expected to be any good. The key for me is I don't think this a fluke at all. Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford went 82-57 in 11 seasons with the Golden Bears and is why this team is where it is. He's going to have a great game plan here and I love that he gets to beat into his players head all week that no one thinks they are any good.
You also have to give props to defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer, who has completely transformed the Bulldogs on that side of the ball. Fresno State finished the year 12th in the country, allowing just 17.3 ppg and 16th in total defense, giving up just 317 ypg. That's with returning just 6 starters from a defense that allowed 30.9 ppg and 415 ypg. They also went from allowing an average of 248 rushing yards/game to giving up just 117.3 ypg. I think they have more than offense here to win this one outright. Take Fresno State!
|12-02-17||Georgia +3 v. Auburn||Top||28-7||Win||100||54 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +
It wasn't pretty for the Bulldogs in the first meeting against the Tigers. Georgia went into Auburn sitting at 9-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, scoring on their first drive, but it was all downhill from there. Auburn led 16-7 at the half and pushed lead up to 40-10 midway through the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a great team, I just think they caught Georgia by surprise in that game earlier this season. I also think that was a Bulldogs team that was starting to get a little too cocky with how they were dominating teams. Georgia simply didn't have the same fire that Auburn did, who at that time was already in win or their season is over mode. I think we get a much different looking Bulldogs team here and I like their chances of winning this game outright.
Another thing here is I just think Auburn could be running on fumes here. They have been in do or die mode since losing to LSU back in the middle of December. The biggest of them all was last week against rival Alabama, which secured their spot in the SEC title game. This will be their 3rd game against a Top 10 team in their last 4 games, while Georgia hasn't been tested since that loss to Auburn. I think the Tigers will be out of gas. Take Georgia!
|12-02-17||TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma||17-41||Loss||-115||51 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on TCU +
I know the Sooners cruised to a 38-20 win over TCU just a few weeks ago (Nov. 11th), but I think the Horned Frogs are going to put up a much better fight and could even win this game outright. In that first meeting the game was at Oklahoma, which has a huge home field edge. This game will be played at the home of the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
It was also a game where the Sooners struck early and had TCU reeling. Oklahoma was up 24-7 in the first 20 minutes of the game and had a 38-14 edge at the half. Some will say the Sooners called off the dogs in the second half, but I don't think that was the case. A 24-point lead against a good team in the Big 12 is not something to fill safe about in the 3rd quarter.
I believe Gary Patterson and his staff made some big adjustments and will be something they can carry over to this second meeting. Patterson is a great coach and brilliant defensive mind. I expect this TCU defense to make life miserable for Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense. At the same time, I think we see a better game plan here from the Horned Frogs offense and this Oklahoma defense isn't all that good. Take TCU!
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -4||28-31||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
3* Pac-12 Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on USC -
I like the value here with USC laying less than a touchdown in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game against rival Stanford. The Trojans whooped up on the Cardinal early on in the regular-season, beating the Cardinal 58-34 and it was every bit a blowout as the final score would suggest. USC put up 623 yards while holding Stanford to just 342, as they outgained the Cardinal by a ridiculous 281 yards.
I think the perception here is that the Cardinal are a much better team, as they have closed out the season winning 8 of their last 9, including wins over No. 9 Washington and No. 8 Notre Dame in their last 3 games. I'm just not buying them being improved enough to be all that competitive with the Trojans. Like they did a year ago, USC has saved their best football for the end of the year and are clearly motivated to win the Pac-12 title. Take USC!
|11-25-17||Idaho v. New Mexico State -8||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||65 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAAF Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State -
I like the value here with the Aggies laying single-digits at home against the Vandals. While Idaho is sitting at 3-7 and out of the bowl picture, New Mexico State is 4-6 and still can reach bowl eligibility with a win here and victory over Georgia State in their finale next week. The key here is the Aggies are a much better team than their 2-4 conference mark would suggest, as they could very easily be 6-0. All 4 losses have come by 6-points or less, including mere 3-point losses against Sun Belt powers Appalachian State and Troy.
Another key here is that Idaho just recently lost starting quarterback Matt Linehan. In the first game without him against Coastal Carolina last week, the Vandals managed just 7-points, 277 total yards and 14 first downs. That's just too big a loss for this team to overcome, as they aren't any good at running the ball. Idaho is 104th in the country, averaging just 130.7 ypg on the ground.
There is a chance New Mexico State could be without starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. I think he plays, but even if he doesn't the Aggies should be able to generate more than enough offense to win here by double-digits. Take New Mexico State!
|11-25-17||North Texas -10 v. Rice||30-14||Win||100||63 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -
This has been a breakout season for the Mean Green, who have already secured the C-USA West title and will play in next week's C-USA championship game. Typically this isn't a spot where I would take a team that really has nothing to play for, but I don't think the Mean Green are going to just lay down with a chance to reach double-digit wins this year. On top of that, North Texas could play their "C" game and still beat Rice by more than two touchdowns.
The Owls are 1-10 and have lost 9 straight since beating UTEP way back in Week 2 of the season. Keep in mind that UTEP is awful, as the Miners are 0-11 on the season. I just don't see Rice has enough talent to keep this close even if they were to treat this like their bowl game. I look for North Texas to try and get as big a lead as possible early on and coast to a comfortable win on Saturday.
Road favorites who have a winning record and have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 are 95-49 (66%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last 10 seasons. Take North Texas!
|11-25-17||Duke v. Wake Forest OVER 58.5||31-23||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Duke OVER
I think we are getting some decent value here with this total, as I see these two teams combining for at least 60 points on Saturday. Wake Forest has scored at least 30 in 4 straight games, including a 64 point outburst at Syracuse a couple weeks ago. Duke's offense snapped out of a major funk with 43 in their last game against Georgia Tech. With not a ton here for the Demon Deacons to play for, I don't see them being at the top of their game defensively here and they have struggled on that side of the ball, giving up 38.3 ppg over their last 3.
We also have a strong system in play. The OVER is 144-81 (64%) in the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 56.5 to 63 in the month of November with a team that's failed to cover 2 of their last 3. Take the OVER!
|11-25-17||East Carolina +28.5 v. Memphis||13-70||Loss||-105||76 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SHOCKER on East Carolina +
I like the value here with the Pirates catching a huge number against the Tigers on Saturday. Memphis has already locked up a spot in the AAC title game, as they will take on the winner of the UCF/USF game on Friday next week. I just don't see the Tigers having any interest in running up the score here on East Carolina. I look for them to be extra cautious with their starters and to keep the game plan as vanilla as possible. The only priority here is to get a win without getting anyone hurt and not exposing any more of the playbook than they need to.
As for East Carolina, I look for them to treat this as their bowl game, as no matter the outcome their season comes to an end when this one is over. The Pirates showed they aren't going to just lay down, as they just defeated Cincinnati 48-20 at home. The big key here is the Pirates have an offense that can put points on the board, so even if things get ugly early, the backdoor will be wide open for them in the 2nd half.
It's also worth noting that last time out the Tigers put up 66 points in their win over SMU. Any time Memphis has come off a big offensive outburst like that, they have been a great fade, as the Tigers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 50 or more points. They are also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards. Take East Carolina!
|11-25-17||Georgia v. Georgia Tech +11||38-7||Loss||-104||3 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Georgia Tech +
I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a big home dog against in-state rival Georgia. There's nothing more that Georgia Tech would rather do than play a part in potentially keeping the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. I think they have what it takes to not only keep it close, but pull off the upset. The Yellow Jackets triple-option will be tough for even this great Georgia defense to stop and most importantly I think Georgia Tech has the talent on defense to slow down that high-powered Bulldogs rushing attack. Don't be worried about the Yellow Jackets ugly loss to Duke, as they were looking ahead to this game and are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a loss by 21 or more points. Take Georgia Tech +11!
|11-24-17||Missouri v. Arkansas +11||Top||48-45||Win||100||55 h 31 m||Show|
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +
I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a double-digit dog at home against the Tigers. Missouri has caught fire here in the 2nd half of the season and have won 5 straight and covered their last 7. I think they are way overvalued here because of it. While the wins have come by large margins they have also come against bad teams.
Arkansas has had a down year, but there's still a lot of fight in this team and they showed it last week in their near upset at home over Mississippi State. They are going to want to go out with a fight on senior day and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won outright. Razorbacks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home when they come in having failed 2 of their last 3, 15-6 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.
It's also worth noting that the home team has dominated in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Arkansas!
|11-24-17||Missouri v. Arkansas UNDER 71.5||48-45||Loss||-110||54 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on MISSOURI UNDER
I just think we are seeing an inflated total here based on Missouri lighting up the scoreboard over their last 5 games, but those all came against either bad teams or teams that have thrown in the towel on this season. I think they have a lot harder time scoring on the road against a motivated Razorback defense that will have a little extra fight on senior day.
Most people focus on all the points Missouri is scoring, but they have been lights out defensively as well of late. The Tigers have held each of their last 4 opponents to 17 points or less. Arkansas is far from a potent offense and aren't exactly clicking right now, having scored just 31 in their last two games combined.
UNDER is 12-3 in Arkansas' last 15 home games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. UNDER is also 10-2 in Missouri's last 12 off a SU win by more than 20 points, 14-5 in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record and 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Take the UNDER!
|11-24-17||Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh +14||14-24||Win||100||52 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pitt +
I like the value here with the Panthers as a two touchdown dog at home against the Hurricanes. Miami came out flat last week at home against Virginia and failed to cover. No question the Hurricanes are the better team, but the pressure is really starting to build on this team and they could have a hard time not looking ahead to the ACC title game next week against Clemson.
Pitt on the other hand has nothing to lose and with no shot at getting to bowl eligibility, they are going to treat this like their bowl game. They would enjoy nothing more than ruining the Canes perfect season. Even though the Panthers have lost their last two, they were right there in both.
Another big key here is I think this is a good matchup for Pitt's defense, as their strength has been stopping the run. The Panthers rank 49th in the country, allowing just 151.3 ypg. On top of that, we should see one of their best efforts defensively here at home against a ranked opponent. I don't think Pitt pulls of the upset, but it's not out of the question. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-23-17||Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 65.5||31-28||Win||105||46 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Thanksgiving Total NO BRAINER on Ole Miss UNDER
We are getting great value here with the UNDER in Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown between these two SEC West and in-state rivals. This total is calling for these two teams to score close to 70 points and I just don't see it happening.
Mississippi State's defense didn't play great last week and still managed to hold Arkansas to just 21 points. It continued a trend of dominance on defense against the lesser teams in the SEC and there's no question that Ole Miss falls into that category. Not to mention we just saw the Rebels struggle against a quality defense at home last week, scoring just 24 against Texas A&M and this Bulldog defense is a class above the Aggies.
Another key factor here is that the defensive intensity is going to be turned up a notch for both sides with this being a rivalry game. I know Mississippi State put up 55 on the Rebels last year, but that should only add fuel to fire for the Rebels and I'm willing to bank they show up and keep the Bulldogs from putting up anywhere close to that many points.
UNDER is 22-8 in the Rebels last 30 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. It's also 20-8 in Mississippi State's last 28 off a came where they won but failed to cover as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. Take the UNDER!
|11-21-17||Miami-OH v. Ball State UNDER 58||28-7||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ball State UNDER
I know the Cardinals defense hasn't been any good and that the OVER has cashed in each of Ball State's last 5 games. I believe it's created some value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's game against Miami (OH). The big key here is I just don't see the RedHawks being motivated at all for this one, as last week's 24-27 home loss to Eastern Michigan eliminated Miami (OH) from becoming bowl eligible.
The RedHawks could also be without their top two running backs, as both Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young are listed as questionable. Without the Miami putting up a big number, it's going to be hard for this one to eclipse the mark set by the books, as this Ball State offense is one of the worst in the country, as they come in averaging just 18.9 ppg and 331 ypg. I look for both teams to just go through the motions here, as the players likely can't wait to get this season over with.
UNDER is also 11-1 in the RedHawks last 12 off a SU loss and 25-9 in their last 34 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points/game. Take the UNDER!
|11-18-17||Utah v. Washington -17||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||64 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington -
I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home.
Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State.
Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington!
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