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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|03-10-20||Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1||81-72||Loss||-108||6 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1 -108
No reason to overthink this one. Pitt finished the regular-season on a 7-game losing streak and 5 of the 7 defeats came by double-digits. Hard to believe this team was once sitting at 4-4 in ACC play (finished 6-14).
I get Wake Forest had the same record in ACC play, but unlike Pitt they played awful at the beginning of the year and got better as the season went on. Demon Deacons started out just 2-8 in league play before a 4-6 finish that included a win over Duke. Not to mention Wake Forest went into Pitt and beat the Panthers in the only meeting between the two.
No a big concern for revenge, as Pitt is just 10-23 ATS last 33 when revenging a loss. Panthers are also 3-14 ATS last 17 when they come in having lost 2 or more games in a row. Demon Deacons are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games on a neutral floor. Take Wake Forest!
|03-09-20||IUPU Ft Wayne +2 v. North Dakota||Top||56-73||Loss||-103||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne +2 -103
Easy play here on the Mastodons at basically a pick'em against North Dakota in the semifinals of the Summit Conference Tournament. IUPU Ft. Wayne followed up their strong showing on the road in the regular-season finale (lost by 6 at Oral Roberts as a 10.5-point dog) with a 77-74 win over South Dakota State on Saturday as a 7-point dog.
The Mastodons are now a strong 4-1 ATS last her last 5 games as a dog. They are also 28-13 ATS last 41 off an outright win as a dog. The Fighting Hawks also won as a dog in their first game of the Summit Tournament, but they are just 1-5 STS last 6 off a SU win.
Big factor here that favors IUPU Ft Wayne is that North Dakota does not force a lot of turnovers. Fighting Hawks rank just 337th in the country in defensive turnover rate. That's huge for a Mastodons offense that doesn't have a traditional true point guard. Take Ft Wayne!
|03-09-20||Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks||138-143||Loss||-110||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Hornets +4½ -110
Easy play here on the Hornets as a decently priced road dog against the Hawks. Charlotte has really been playing some of their best basketball over the last month. Hornets are 6-5 SU over their last 11 games.
Even more important is they are covering the number. Charlotte has cashed a winning ticket in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 overall. Most recently beating the Rockets 108-99 as a 8-point dog.
As for the Hawks, they come in having lost and failed to cover 3 straight. Atlanta will have the home court edge, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have several guys banged up or dealing with a bit of the flu bug. Jeff Teague, De'Andre Hunter and DeAndre Bembry are all questionable to play.
Hornets have gone 15-5 ATS this season vs bad teams like the Hawks who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Charlotte!
|03-09-20||Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5||Top||73-76||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Toledo -8½ -110
The Rockets are definitely worth a look to cover the spread at home against Western Michigan. Toledo finished with a mere 8-10 record in MAC play, but that's a bit misleading in terms of how the Rockets are playing. Toledo has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes a 9-point road win over Western Michigan.
While the Rockets are surging to the finish line, Western Michigan went just 2-6 over their final 8 games. Broncos ended the year with an ugly 68-85 loss to rival Central Michigan, who came into that game on a 9-game losing streak.
Rockets went 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Broncos are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Take Toledo!
|03-08-20||Tampa Bay Vipers v. Los Angeles Wildcats -2.5||34-41||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* XFL - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Los Angeles Wildcats -2½ -110
I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Vipers. This line might seem legit given how both teams are just 1-3 to start the season, but I see LA as the much better team.
Only three teams in the XFL have a positive TD margin. The Roughnecks (+7), BattleHawks (+4) and the Wildcats (+2).
Vipers have played two games so far on the road and have lost by 20 at New York and by 8 at Seattle, both times failing to score double-digits. Take Los Angeles!
|03-08-20||Heat -4.5 v. Wizards||100-89||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -4½ -110
I know Miami has had their struggles on the road this season, but I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Heat. Washington is somehow still in the playoff mix and are fresh off a win and cover at home against Atlanta. I think it has the Wizards getting to much love here against what I expect to be a desperate Heat team off a loss at New Orleans.
Miami has been a good team to back off a loss, going 15-6 ATS after defeat this season. Washington is also a team they have had a lot of success against. Heat are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 trips to DC. Wizards just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a win and 1-7 ATS last 8 times they have had to play on Sunday. Take Miami!
|03-08-20||Tulsa v. Wichita State -6.5||57-79||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Wichita State -6½ -110
Most will be looking to take the points here with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes can clinch the outright AAC regular-season title with a win and already beat Wichita State at home earlier this season. Much like the books, I'm not a believer in Tulsa.
I look for the Shockers to win big here at home, where they are 12-2 on the season. Wichita State is also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against the Golden Hurricane. I just don't see Tulsa being able to score enough to keep it close. Golden Hurricane are only averaging 63.5 ppg on 41% shooting from the field and 25% from deep on the road this season. Take Wichita State!
|03-08-20||East Carolina v. UCF -7.5||Top||62-94||Win||100||5 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF -7½ -110
Easy play here on UCF at home against the Pirates, as the Knights should have no problem winning by double-digits in this one. East Carolina is a mere 3-11 over tehir last 14 games and just got annihilated on their home floor 84-63 by UConn.
UCF won the first meeting between these two by just 4 at ECU, but that game felt a lot more lopsided. Knights shot 48% to the Pirates 41% and were even on the boards, free throws and turnovers. Seeing how ECU is just 2-11 on the road and giving up 75 ppg away from home, this one figures to get ugly in a hurry.
Pirates are 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons in toad games against a marginal winning team that has won between 51% to 60% of their games and are losing in this spot by an 15.5 ppg. Take UCF!
|03-07-20||76ers v. Warriors +2.5||114-118||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors +2½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with Golden State. The Warriors are a team that just got back their best player in Steph Curry and despite a sub-par shooting night, he still managed to score 25 in his first game back from injury. I think Curry makes GS a dangerous team, as I think we are going to see his return spark the entire team into playing well.
It's hard to not like them in this spot. 76ers were able to win at Sacramento last time out, but no way can this team be trusted on the road without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
Philadelphia is 6-20-1 ATS last 27 road games, 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a win by 10 or more points. Take Golden State!
|03-07-20||Oklahoma +2 v. TCU||78-76||Win||100||15 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +2 -115
I like the Sooners to go into Fort Worth and cover as a small dog against the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two by a score of 83-63. It was complete domination, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding TCU to 38%.
One of the big reasons that I don't see the script being flipped with a change in venue is the Sooners ability to take care of the basketball. The Horned Frogs defense really relies on their ability to force turnovers, as they struggle to get stops when they don't take the ball away. TCU is just 5-15 ATS this season vs teams who average 14 or fewer turnovers/game (Sonners average just 11).
Oklahoma has also dominated this series more than just that first meeting this season. Sooners have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams. They have won 6 of their last 8 trips to TCU. Take Oklahoma!
|03-07-20||UCLA v. USC -3||Top||52-54||Loss||-115||12 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 -115
I absolutely love the Trojans laying a slim 3-points at home against rival UCLA. The Bruins have caught fire in the second half of the season and come into this game having won 7 straight, but I think it has them getting way to much respect in this one.
USC enters off back-to-back impressive home wins over Arizona (57-48) and Arizona State (71-61). That's now 4 straight home wins for the Trojans, who are 13-2 on their home floor this season. The defense has been outstanding during their last 4 at home, as they held all 4 teams to 61 or fewer.
Let's also not forget that USC went on the road and beat UCLA by 11 earlier this season. I get the Bruins are playing better now, but they could do next to nothing offensively in that game, shooting just 38% from the field and 3-13 from deep.
UCLA is just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road after 2 or more wins in a row. The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Take USC!
|03-07-20||Baylor +1.5 v. West Virginia||64-76||Loss||-109||10 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor +1½ -109
Easy play here on the Bears getting points at West Virginia. I get the Mountaineers were able to snap a 4-game skid with a win at ISU on Tuesday, but no way should they be favored over the likes of Baylor, especially when you take into account what happened in the first meeting and how these two matchup.
The Bears absolutely dominated West Virginia, defeating the Mountaineers by a final of 70-59. The final score does not do justice to how lopsided that game was. Baylor was up 53-25 in the 2nd half. They shot 52% from the field, while limited the WVU to 35%.
You also have to think the Bears are going to be motivated to win here. With a win and a Kansas loss on the road at Texas Tech, Baylor would earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title. Bears are 6-0 ATS this season on the road vs quality teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog. Take Baylor!
|03-06-20||Santa Clara v. Pepperdine -1||73-84||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pepperdine -1 -110
Hard not to like Pepperdine at basically a pick'em against Santa Clara in the 2nd round of the WCC Tournament. Big rest advantage for the Waves, who got a first round bye, while the Broncos had to play Portland yesterday. Note that Portland (3 wins) is the only team Santa Clara has beat since Jan. 25.
Playing on no rest this time a year is tough on a college team and I just don't feel that it's taken into the line enough. Pepperdine won both meetings between these two in the regular-season. They won in OT at Santa Clara and then won by 14 at home. Both times the Waves reach 90 points.
Pepperdine is 7-1 ATS on the season in road games against solid teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Waves are also 10-2 ATS last 12 after 2 or more losses (lost last two). Take Pepperdine!
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +3 -115
I like this spot with Atlanta as a slim road dog at Washington. I'm just not buying the Wizards as a playoff team and I think some of that talk is playing into this great price with the Hawks here. You also are getting Atlanta on the cheap after they were just annihilated 127-88 at home by Memphis.
Thing about that loss to the Grizzlies is they aren't the first team that Memphis has done that to here of late. Grizzlies have also held the Lakers to 88 and the Nets to 79 over their last 3 games. Prior to that Atlanta was playing well coming off back-to-back wins.
Washington has lost their last two, most recently losing by 21 at Portland. While the Wizards will be at home here, it's not the greatest spot. They only got one day to regroup from their 4-game west coast trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Hawks on the other hand have had the last 3 days off. Take Atlanta!
|03-05-20||Weber State -4 v. Idaho||Top||72-64||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Weber State -4 -110
I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Vandals. The books have really struggled to price Idaho here of late. The Vandals are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. It's gotten worse down the stretch, as they have lost and failed to cover each of their last 5 games, losing all 5 by double-digits.
Not only does the current form favor Weber State, but this is a great matchup for the Wildcats. Idaho struggles to score inside and Weber State defends the 2-point shot well. If the outside shot isn't falling the Vandals are in big trouble, because the Wildcats are going to score. Weber State shoots 51% on 2-point shots, third best in the Big Sky, and that's an area the Vandals struggle to defend.
Weber State has failed to cover their last two games, but that's almost more of a positive than a negative. Wildcats are 23-9-2 ATS last 34 off a failed cover and 8-1 ATS last 9 after 2 straight games where they didn't cover. Take Weber State!
|03-05-20||UMKC +3.5 v. Utah Valley||61-51||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UMKC +3½ -109
Easy play on the Kangaroos getting points against the Wolverines. I get Utah Valley has the home court edge, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 games with those two wins coming at home against bottom feeders Cal St. Bakersfield and Grand Canyon.
UMKC has won 3 straight and their strong play goes back even further than that, as they are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games. You also have to like the fact the Kangaroos won the earlier meeting between the two and did so jumping out to a 30-19 lead at the half. UMKC's defense held the Wolverines to just 34.5% shooting and forced them into 18 turnovers.
Kangaroos are 16-5 ATS last 21 games off a win and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog, including 3-0-1 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Utah Valley is 3-7 ATS last 10 off a loss and a dreadful 3-11 ATS last 14 as a favorite (2-8 ATS last 10 as a home favorite). Take UMKC!
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Clippers +1 -110
I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a slim 1-point dog at Houston. The Rockets have been playing much better since their move to small ball, but did just lose at New York as a double-digit favorite on Monday. They have shot just 42% from the field in each of their last 2 games.
I just feel like the Clippers are playing the basketball of any team since the All-Star break. The additions of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson have been huge. LA is arguably the deepest team in the league and just think they will be able to not only defend Harden and Westbrook, but wear down the Rockets with their onslaught of talent.
LA has covered 21 of their last 33 against high-scoring teams that are averaging 110+ points/game and are 46-29 (61%) last 75 road games vs teams who allow 106+ points/game. Take Los Angeles!
|03-05-20||Illinois State v. Drake -2.5||65-75||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - MVC Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Drake -2½ -110
The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a small favorite against the Redbirds. Drake had a tough finish to the regular-season, losing 3 straight, including a 53-57 loss at Illinois State that started the skid and a ugly 43-70 loss at home to UNI to end it.
I just trust the Bulldogs a lot more in this spot. Drake was the much better team in MVC play at 8-9, as Illinoi State went just 5-13 with two of their 5 wins coming against Evansville, who finished 0-18 in league play.
Drake is 15-5-1 ATS last 21 neutral site games and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 neutral site games when listed as a favorite. They are also 4-0 ATS last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss by more than 20 points.
Adding to this is a solid system in favor of the Bulldogs. Teams playing with revenge from a loss where they scored 60 or fewer and off a conference loss by 10 or more are 129-75 (63%) ATS if playing on a neutral site. Take Drake!
|03-04-20||Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island||84-57||Win||100||23 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dayton -3½ -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a small road favorite against Rhode Island. Dayton has proven to be in a class of their own in the A-10. They are 16-0 in league play (no other team has fewer than 4 losses) and have made it clear they want to go undefeated in league play. A big reason for that is they feel if they run the table and win the A-10 Tournament, they got a legit shot at a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
That's more than enough motivation for me to lay the short number with the Flyers. Especially with how poorly Rhode Island has been playing down the stretch. The Rams were at one points 10-1 in league play, but have lost 3 of their last 5, including a 14-point loss at Dayton and most recently a shocking 10-point loss at home to St Louis (never led). Their two wins were both against bottom feeders in St. Joe's and Fordham (only won by 1-point).
Rams are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home against a team with a winning road record, while the Flyers are 10-3 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take Dayton!
|03-04-20||Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5||73-71||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +2½ -115
The simple fact that Florida State is basically a pick'em in this spot against an unranked Notre Dame team says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Seminoles. Anytime something looks too good to be true, especially this late in the year, it typically is, which is why I like the Irish to win and cover.
We did just see FSU lose at Clemson as a mere 3.5-point favorite on Saturday and you have to wonder if the pressure of winning the school's first ever ACC title in hoops is a bit too much for them.
As for the Irish, their NCAA Tournament hopes took a massive hit with a loss at Wake Forest, but a win here could get them back into the conversation. Notre Dame is still trending in the right direction with 7 wins in their last 10 games.
Their ability to take care of the ball (No. 2 in turnover rate) is huge against Florida State, who relies a lot on forcing their opponents into mistakes. We also saw the Irish go on the road and lose by just one-points (84-85) at FSU earlier this season.
Irish are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home, 3-1-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and the underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Notre Dame!
|03-04-20||Celtics v. Cavs +2.5||112-106||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Cavs +2½ -105
A lot of people are going to look at this line and blindly back the Celtics at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cavs. Those that do will likely regret it. Boston isn't to show up for this game, but it's going to look nothing like the team that has started out 41-19 in their first 60 games.
Both Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker are listed as OUT for this game. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are also both listed as doubtful and there's a chance Marcus Smart ends up missing the game due to a suspension.
On top of that, Boston will be playing on no rest after playing at home last night against the Nets, which they lost 120-129 in OT. Playing extra minutes was the last thing they needed and that game could be one that's hard to get over, as they allowed 51 points in the 4th quarter to let the game get to OT. Take Cleveland!
|03-04-20||St. Louis -2 v. George Mason||Top||69-57||Win||100||21 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -2 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Billikens as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Patriots. St. Louis has saved their best basketball of the season for the stretch run and this is simply too good a price to pass up.
Billikens have won 3 straight and are off a dominating 72-62 win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog. St. Louis never trailed and hit 53% from the field. Marking their 5th straight game where they have shot 50% or better from the field. Hard to see the Billikens slowing down in this one. George Mason is allowing A-10 opposing teams to shoot 47% from the field and just let Duquesne connect on 56% in their last game.
Also the one thing that the Patriots offense does well is offensive rebound, but that will be negated here, as St Louis is No. 2 in the conference in defensive rebounding.
Billikens have covered 10 of their last 13 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. George Mason is 6-20 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a home dog. Take St. Louis!
|03-04-20||Massachusetts +2.5 v. La Salle||75-64||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Massachusetts +2½ -110
The Minutemen are worth a look here as a slim road dog against the Explorers. While UMass is coming in off an ugly 24-point loss at Richmond, they had won 3 straight prior to laying an egg against the Spiders.
One of the big reasons things went south against Richmond is the Spiders are a team that takes great care of the ball (No. 1 in A-10 in turnover pct.) and UMass really needs their pressure to force mistakes for them to have success.
Good news for the Minutemen is the Explores are a team that struggle to take care of the ball. La Salle ranks dead last in the A-10 in turnover rate, coughing it up 21.6% of the time.
These two played back in January and UMass won that matchup 77-69. Their offense had no problem exploiting the Explorers defense, shooting 49% from the field. La Salle on the other hand shot just 40%.
Another huge factor here is La Salle just had a starter, Ed Croswell leave the team. Croswell averaged 10.0 ppg (leading scorer averages 10.4 and only 3 guys in double-figures). They could also be without guard Scott Spencer. Take UMass!
|03-04-20||Xavier +5 v. Providence||74-80||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Xavier +5 -110
I like the Musketeers getting a decent number here on the road against the Friars. These two teams met up about a month ago with Xavier winning a defensive battle 64-58. Some might think Providence is primed for revenge with the Friars having won 4 straight, but the Musketeers have won 4 of their last 5 on the road with the only loss by a mere 5-points at Butler.
This is also a brutal spot for Providence. I know the Friars are fighting for their postseason lives right now, but it's going to be near impossible for them to not suffer some kind of letdown after their 58-54 upset win at Villanova on Saturday.
Friars are also a team that thrives a lot more in the role of the underdog. Providence is just 18-31 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, including a mere 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite. Road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series with the underdog cashing in 5 of the last 6. Take Xavier!
|03-03-20||Wolves v. Pelicans -11||139-134||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans -11 -110
I got no problem laying the big number with the Pelicans at home. I look for New Orleans to make easy work of the Timberwolves. The Pelicans will be eager to take the court after a disappointing 4th quarter in Sunday's 114-122 loss to the Lakers. This is a much improved team with Zion in the mix. They are 9-5 in their last 14 with 4 of those losses coming against the Lakers (twice), Rockets and Bucks.
Minnesota is a bit of a mess. They traded away Wiggins and brought in a ton of new pieces. They are trying to figure things out on the fly without their best player in Towns, who is still out with a wrist injury. They are struggling to win games. They are 1-5 since the break with all 5 losses by double-digits.
Rest is also a huge factor here. Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight at home and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. Minnesota on the other hand will be playing their 5th road game in their last 6 overall and their 6th game in the last 10 days overall. Take New Orleans!
|03-03-20||Ohio +8.5 v. Akron||67-74||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ohio +8½ -109
I absolutely love the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. The Zips come in tied with Bowling Green for the top record in MAC play at 12-4. Akron has already locked up a first round by in the MAC tournament. There's really no incentive here for the Zips to go all out in this matchup.
As for Ohio, they are still fighting for seeding and need to stay in the Top 9 of the conference to make sure they get their first game at home in the MAC Tournament. Bobcats are also a team that is surging down the stretch. Ohio is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (4 straight covers) in their last 7 games. They are 12-4 ATS in conference games this season.
Bobcats only lost by 2 (86-88) at home to the Zips earlier this season, so they know they can compete with Akron. An outright win here is not out of the question. Zips just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take Ohio!
|03-03-20||Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State||Top||70-89||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock +3½ -110
I love the value here with Little Rock getting points on the road against the Panthers. The perception here is that the Trojans won't show up for this game because they just wrapped up the Sun Belt regular-season title and will be looking ahead to the conference tournament.
While it's certainly not a do-or-die scenario for Little Rock, I don't think they are going to just not show up. Last thing they want to do is kill their momentum by losing this game. This is a team that's 100% locked in on making the NCAA Tournament.
The other big thing here is that there's not a ton for Georgia State to play for either. The fact that this game doesn't mean anything to the Trojans takes away some of the motivation for the Panthers to play their best.
This is their finale game at home, which often can be big cause it's senior night. However, Georgia State is a young team. They only got one senior on the team that plays in Damon Wilson. He's a decent contributor (4th scoring option), but I don't think they are going to go all out for his final home game.
Trojans are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Trojans are also 6-0 ATS this season when off a conference win by 10 or more (beat Lafayette 91-69 last time out). Take Arkansas-Little Rock!
|03-03-20||Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Youngstown State||57-63||Push||0||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Wisc-Milwaukee +6 -109
Give me the Panthers and the points in their 1st round matchup of the Horizon League Championship against Youngstown State. These two teams just played each other in the regular-season finale. A game the Penguins won on the road by 4-points. It was a bit of payback, as the Panthers won the first meeting at Youngstown 75-73 in OT.
Getting 6-points in a game that you can expect to be close is just too good to pass up. I would this line closer to the Penguins -3, simply because it's on their home floor. Milwaukee is 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a home loss, while Youngstown is 25-43 (36.7%) last 68 as a home favorite of 6 or less and have failed to cover 6 straight off a win by 6 or less. Take Wisc-Milwaukee!
|03-01-20||DC Defenders +1 v. Tampa Bay Vipers||0-25||Loss||-110||130 h 24 m||Show|
3* XFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on DC Defenders +1 -110
After two dominating wins at home against the Dragons in Week 1 (31-19) and the Guardians in Week 2 (27-0), DC laid an egg on the road against LA, losing 9-39 to the 0-2 Wildcats. I really like the Defenders to bounce back in a big way and actually see a ton of value here with them getting points against the Vipers.
Tampa Bay is winless and are coming off an emotional 27-34 loss at home to the Roughnecks, which was their home opener. Tampa Bay rallied from 8-down to take a 27-26 lead early in the 4th, but couldn't finish. Defenders are definitely the better team and will show up for the prime time matchup Sunday night. Take DC!
|03-01-20||Colorado v. Stanford -1||64-72||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 -109
Stanford is definitely worth a look here as a pick'em at home against the Buffaloes. The line really says it all. Colorado is the ranked team and yet they are the dog in the fight. I couldn't agree more.
For one, the Cardinal are extremely tough to beat at home. Stanford is 13-4 at home this season and are fresh off a 8-point win and cover at home against the Utes. Cardinal have won 3 straight as they are surging after a midseason funk that saw them lose 7 of 8.
As for Colorado, they are off back-to-back losses. Most recently losing by 14 at Cal as a 8.5-point favorite. Buffaloes are not a great road team and are shooting just 40% from the field away from home. Colorado has also been overvalued by the books a ton of late. Buffaloes are a miserable 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
Colorado is 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road underdog, while the Cardinal are 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a conference win. Take Stanford!
|03-01-20||Mavs -6.5 v. Wolves||111-91||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs -6½ -110
I got no problem laying the points with Dallas on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are still without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns and are trying to piece together all the new pieces they acquired at the trade deadline.
Winning is just not a priority for this team and that's pretty evident by the lack of defense they are playing. Minnesota has allowed 4 straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field and have not held an opponent under 46% from the field in a month.
Dallas is not the team you want to be facing without a defense, especially with the Mavs coming off a loss at Miami last time out. Dallas is scoring 117.4 ppg on the road this season and are averaging 119 ppg over their last 5. Mavs are also 11-3-1 ATS this season when listed as a road favorite. Take Dallas!
|03-01-20||South Florida v. Temple -3||Top||64-58||Loss||-109||2 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109
I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday.
Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5.
Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule.
Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|02-29-20||Rockets +2 v. Celtics||111-110||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS KNOCKOUT on Rockets +2 -105
The books are begging you to take the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at home and I'm showing close to 70% of the public taking the bait. That is reason enough on its own to be looking at Houston as a small dog.
I know the Celtics are a talented team, but taking on the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook is a tall task without starting point guard Kemba Walker, even at home. You also have to factor in how well Houston is playing. Rockets have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Houston is a very streaky team and when they are hot they tend to stay hot for long stretches.
Rockets are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-3 ATS last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Houston!
|02-29-20||Delaware -3.5 v. NC-Wilmington||82-65||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware -3½ -109
I got no problem here laying a small number with the Blue Hens at UNC Wilmington. Delaware has lost 3 of their last 4, which is playing into the number, but those 3 losses have come against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league.
All that does is increase the likelihood that the Blue Hens are going to show up here with a big effort and that's really all we need. If Delaware comes to play, they should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Blue Hens beat the Seahawks by 14 at home and the final score doesn't do justice. Delaware had a 27 point lead at one point in the 2nd half.
Blue Hens are 38-19 ATS last 57 road games after losing 3 of their last 4 and are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings of this series. Take Delaware!
|02-29-20||Morehead State +5 v. Eastern Kentucky||76-80||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Morehead State +5 -110
I really like the value here with the Eagles catching points on the road against Eastern Kentucky. This might seem like a favorable price to back the Colonels at home given they are 11-6 in the Ohio Valley and Morehead is just 7-10.
Thing is there's really no motivation here for EKU, who is locked into the No. 4 seed for the OVC Tournament. The Colonels also come into this game in bad form. They have lost their last two and 4 of 6 overall.
Morehead State should be motivated to get a win here to move up in the standings. The Eagles also know they can compete with EKU, as the only lost by 7 at home to the Colonels.
Both teams played on Thursday and that's worth noting as Eastern Kentucky is a dreadful 3-11 ATS at home when playing with one or less days of rest. Colonels are also 1-7 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS last 6 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Take Morehead State!
|02-29-20||Northern Iowa v. Drake +4.5||Top||70-43||Loss||-110||19 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110
I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road.
The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State.
They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run.
UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake!
|02-29-20||NC-Greensboro -2.5 v. Chattanooga||72-74||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110
The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance.
The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits.
Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro!
|02-29-20||Florida State v. Clemson +3.5||69-70||Win||100||5 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Clemson +3½ -105
I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.
I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season.
Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson!
|02-29-20||Pittsburgh v. NC State -8||73-77||Loss||-109||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109
I got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC.
With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in.
During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack.
The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State!
|02-28-20||Kings +4 v. Grizzlies||Top||104-101||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109
I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright.
Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.
I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento!
|02-27-20||Jacksonville State +3 v. Tennessee State||Top||55-65||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110
I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall.
They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%.
Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State!
|02-27-20||Knicks +6.5 v. 76ers||106-115||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110
I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.
He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright.
Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York!
|02-26-20||Clippers -5.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns.
Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.
Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!
|02-26-20||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +3.5||Top||56-53||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109
I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road.
The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points.
This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday.
Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-25-20||TCU +3.5 v. Iowa State||Top||59-65||Loss||-110||18 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on TCU +3½ -110
I love the value here with TCU as a small road dog against the Cyclones. Iowa State followed up a 20-point loss at Kansas last Monday with a 30-point loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones are now 1-3 SU and ATS since losing their best player and potential NBA lottery pick Tyrese Haliburton.
In the 3 games they haven't covered they have failed to do so by an average of 16.0 ppg. There's definitely reason to believe it could get ugly for ISU, even at home. Haliburton had a triple double (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a loss at TCU earlier this season.
TCU may only have a couple more wins in Big 12 play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, most recently knocking off a ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. Horned Frogs will be coming into this one with a lot of confidence.
Cyclones are 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record. Take TCU!
|02-25-20||Akron v. Bowling Green +1.5||60-78||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bowling Green +1½ -109
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Zips. No way should Bowling Green by getting points at home in this one. Akron is simply overvalued having won 5 straight. The Falcons are 12-1 on their home floor and come in playing well with 11 wins in their last 13 games.
It just so happens one of those was a double-digit loss at Akron. Revenge will also be a key factor here in favor of Bowling Green. Last time out the Falcons didn't play their best, but still found a way to beat a good Ohio team 62-61. That win is another positive. Falcons are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a home conference win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||112-123||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Knicks +14 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a massive road dog against Houston. The books have no choice here but to inflate the number on New York with how well the Rockets have looked out of the break, beating the Warriors by 30 on the road and then going to Utah and beating the Jazz by 10.
As good as Houston is playing, this is a big flat spot playing on just 1-day of rest after a pretty big game at Utah. Knicks are definitely not a team to get excited to play. Rockets have to feel like they can just go through the motions and win this game.
Knicks have been all over the place. They won 4 in a row only to lose their next 3. I think they show up in this one, as they are playing only their 2nd game back from the break and are on a full two days of rest.
Knicks are 8-1 ATS this season when playing a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and Houston is just 25-43 (37%) ATS last 68 times they have been a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take New York!
|02-24-20||West Virginia -5 v. Texas||Top||57-67||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -5 -109
I love the value here with West Virginia laying a small number on the road against Texas. The Big 12 has 2 elite teams in Baylor and Kansas, two top tier squads in West Virginia and Texas Tech and then a bunch of mediocre to bad teams. I think the books have struggled to price teams like the Mountaineers high enough in road games.
It's going to take a near perfect game for Texas to win this contest. They haven't beat one of the top 4 teams yet. They are 6-8 in league play with their wins coming against Kansas State, Oklahoma St, TCU and ISU. The Horned Frogs, who are 6-8, are the only one of those 4 with a Big 12 mark better than 4-10.
Texas has lost at home to baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma in Big 12 play. I know they have won two straight, but I don't think playing at home will be enough. West Virginia is just too good. Longhorns are 5-15 ATS last 20 home games off a win and 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been off two or more wins. Take West Virginia!
|02-23-20||Pacers +6 v. Raptors||81-127||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +6 -115
I like the value here with the Pacers catching a decent number on the road against the Raptors. Indiana went into the All-Star break with a 118-111 win at home against the Bucks and then came back with a 106-98 win and cover at New York. I look for the Pacers to stay hot in a game you know they had circled.
These two teams played twice in a 3-day stretch from Feb. 5-7. Toronto won both games. Indiana had their chances in both. They led most of the way in a gut-wrenching 118-119 loss at Toronto on Feb. 5 and two days later lost another close game at home 106-115. Needless to say the Pacers will have revenge on their mind in this one.
Oladipo might not go for Indiana, as he's listed as doubtful. That's a big loss on paper, but he's not played like the All-Star we remember in his limited time back from injury. Pacers were playing better without him. If anything his injury has added value here. Take Indiana!
|02-23-20||DC Defenders -8 v. Los Angeles Wildcats||9-39||Loss||-110||9 h 9 m||Show|
3* XFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on DC Defenders -8 -110
I got no problem laying the points here with the Defenders on the road against the Wildcats. DC has been impressive to say the least to start out the new XFL season. The Defenders opened things up with a 31-19 win at home over the Dragons and then rolled the Guardians 27-0.
Hard to see Los Angeles being the team that knocks them off or even make a game of it. Wildcats lost by 20 in Week 1 at Houston and then fell at home to the Renegades by 7. Both games LA gave up 25 or more points and with the way DC's offense is looking they are giving up 25+ for a 3rd straight game. I just don't see the Wildcats losing by fewer than 10 in this one. Take DC!
|02-23-20||Canisius +3.5 v. Manhattan||57-56||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Canisius +3½ -108
I really like this price with the Canisius as a small road dog against the Jaspers. No one is going to want to back the Golden Griffins right now, as they have lost 4 straight and 7 of 4 overall. Thing is, it's not going much better for Manhattan, who has lost 3 straight and failed to cover 7 of their last 10 overall.
This has been the money spot for the Griffins, who are 9-1 ATS last 10 times they have been on the road with a total in the 130's. Canisius is also 12-3-2 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Road team has gone 20-5-1 ATS last 26 games in this series with the underdog cashing in 4 of the last 5. Take Canisius!
|02-23-20||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||Top||63-67||Loss||-109||3 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Temple -2½ -109
The Owls are definitely worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Temple has been playing much better here of late. The Owls have won 4 of 6 and are fresh off a double-OT win at home against UConn.
I just think we are getting some value with Temple because of their losing mark of 6-7 in the AAC. It's really not asking much for the Owls to win here by a few points. ECU has lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They just played a brutal 3 game stretch in 8 days against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Memphis.
These two already played once this season and the Owls won by 12 at home. Temple has covered 5 straight games vs a losing straight up record. The favorites has also covered 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Temple!
|02-22-20||Northern Colorado v. Idaho State +9.5||85-72||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Idaho State +9½ -110
I really like the value here with the Bengals as a near double-digit home dog against Northern Colorado. The Bears come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They are also sitting T-2nd in the Big Sky at 11-4, while Idaho State is tied for last in the league with a mark of just 3-12.
Key here is the Bengals really matchup well with Northern Colorado. Bears have struggled against teams who are strong offensive rebounding teams. Idaho State is No. 3 in that department in the Big Sky. Bengals also defend the 3-ball at a high rate and that's a big part of the Northern Colorado offensive attack. Idaho State also struggles with turnovers and Bears are 296th in forcing mistakes.
Also a bit of a letdown spot for Northern Colorado, who is a mere 9-22 ATS last 31 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. Take Idaho State!
|02-22-20||Virginia Tech +17 v. Duke||Top||64-88||Loss||-110||20 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +17 -110
I love the value here with Virginia Tech catching a massive number on the road against the Blue Devils. Hokies are coming off a 3OT game against Miami on Wednesday, but they will be able to recover enough in 3 days to give a max effort here against Duke.
I'm sure most will be counting on the Blue Devils to bounce back with a big game after not leading for a single second in a 22-point loss at NC State. While I have little doubt that Duke will win this game outright, I don't see them pulling away.
One thing that the Blue Devils love to do is get out and run off of turnovers. Those chances will be extremely limited in this one. Virginia Tech is 5th best in the country in offensive turnover rate. Duke is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-22-20||Georgia -2.5 v. Vanderbilt||80-78||Loss||-109||17 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Commodores. Georgia snapped their recent skid in style, knocking off Auburn 65-55 Wednesday. I look for the Bulldogs to carry that momentum into this one against a struggling Vanderbilt team.
Commodores suffered their 4th straight loss and fell to 1-12 in SEC play with a heartbreaking 61-65 loss at Tennessee. Vanderbilt just can't score at a high enough rate to be taken seriously. They have shot 40% or worse from the field in 4 straight and 11 of 12 games overall. It doesn't matter if you are home or away. You aren't going to win often if you can't shoot at least 40% from the field.
Commodores are a mere 1-8 ATS at home off a conference road loss, 3-12 ATS last 15 conference home games overall and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take Georgia!
|02-22-20||SMU +1.5 v. Tulsa||57-79||Loss||-108||14 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on SMU +1½ -108
The Mustangs are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Hurricane. This is a prime bounce back spot for SMU, coming off an ugly loss at Tulane, who even with the win is still dead last in the AAC at 3-11.
Note it wasn't a huge surprise to see them come out flat in that game, as they were only a few days removed from a dramatic 73-72 overtime win at home against Houston. The same Cougars team that just annihilated Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday.
I just don't see the Golden Hurricane being able to keep pace with this juggernaut of an offense that SMU sends out. Especially when the Mustangs figure to clean up on the offensive glass when they do miss. Mustangs are 20th in offensive rebounding. Tulsa is 210 in defensive rebounding.
Mustangs are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a dog, while Golden Hurricane are 7-15 ATS last 22 as a home favorite. Road team has also gone a staggering 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take SMU!
|02-21-20||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5||Top||68-75||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Horizon League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Oakland -3½ -109
I really like the value here with the Grizzlies laying a short number at home against Milwaukee. Oakland comes into this game ride a wave of momentum off back-to-back wins. The first time since early November that they strung two together two wins in a row.
There strong play really goes back to late January, which was about the same time that transfer Rashad Williams started to get comfortable with his new team. Williams didn't make his debut until Jan. 16. After averaging just 12 ppg in his first 3 games, Williams has exploded for 25.3 ppg in his last 6. He's only played 9 games and made 39 shots from behind the 3-point line. That's second most on the team, just 6 behind the leader.
I just don't think people realize how different a team Oakland is. They just look at their overall numbers and see a mediocre team that is 7-9 in a small conference like the Horizon. I just think with how they are playing and Milwaukee off a crushing 4-point loss at home to rival Green Bay, this price is way to low on the Grizzlies. Take Oakland!
|02-19-20||Michigan v. Rutgers -1||60-52||Loss||-115||14 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rutgers -1 -115
Rutgers is definitely worth a look at basically a pick'em on their home floor. How do you know back the Scarlet Knights at this price when they are 17-0 at home this season. Rutgers has lost 3 of their last 5 and needed OT to win at home over Northwestern, but are fresh off a big time 72-57 home win over Illinois.
Those that follow the Big Ten know that the Scarlet Knights are the real deal, but I don't think that's a perception shared across the country. Michigan on the other hand is a name brand and are making headlines with their recent play. Wolverines come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Michigan is better with Livers back in the mix, but I'm not sold on them being good enough to win on the road against a team like Rutgers. The Wolverines only true road wins all season have come against bottom feeders Nebraska and Northwestern. You take away those 3 wins in 3 days at Atlantis and they are just 2-5 away from home.
Rutgers also playing with revenge here from a close 6-point loss to Michigan in the first meeting. Scarlet Knights should feed off an electric home crowd. Take Rutgers!
|02-18-20||Arkansas v. Florida -6||Top||59-73||Win||100||22 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st).
While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State.
I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others.
Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida!
|02-17-20||Xavier v. St. John's +2||Top||77-74||Loss||-109||7 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one.
Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play.
St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem.
Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's!
|02-16-20||St. Louis BattleHawks +8 v. Houston Roughnecks||24-28||Win||100||77 h 25 m||Show|
4* XFL - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on St. Louis BattleHawks +8 -110
This is an easy play for me on St Louis. The BattleHawks were the only road team to get a win in Week 1, as they knocked off Dallas 15-9. Far from an impressive final score, but if you watched the game you know St Louis was the far superior team. The BattleHawks piled on 374 total yards, outgaining the Renegades by 107. They averaged 5.3 yards/play.
The Roughnecks put up 37 points in a blowout win at home over the Wildcats, which I think is definitely playing into the number here. Thing is, they only had 315 total yards and outgained LA by just 24 total yards in their 20-point win. Houston's offense was all pass and St Louis held Dallas without a TD pass and racked up 4 sacks.
Either way I think we are getting some big time value with the BattleHawks catching over a touchdown. Take St. Louis!
|02-16-20||Dallas Renegades -4 v. Los Angeles Wildcats||25-18||Win||100||40 h 31 m||Show|
4* XFL - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas Renegades -4 -108
I like the value here with the Renegades laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Last week Dallas lost at home to the BattleHawks 9-15. They were the only home team to lose in Week 1.
However, the Renegades played that game with backup Philip Nelson at quarterback. Nelson completed 33 of 42 attempts, but for just 209 yards. That's not near the production you are looking for on 33 completions. This week starter Landry Jones is back and I think we are going to see Dallas' offense go off.
They will be up against a Wildcats defense that was torched in their opener, giving up 37 points and 315 total yards to the Roughnecks. Houston quarterback, PJ Walker, threw for 272 yards and 4 scores. Look for Jones to have a big day in this one. Take Dallas!
|02-16-20||Memphis v. Connecticut -4||61-64||Loss||-105||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut -4 -105
I like the value here with the Huskies laying a shot number at home against Memphis. UConn is just 4-7 in the AAC, but if you watch this team, especially here of late, you know that they are much better than their record. Huskies have lost 11 games this season, 9 of those by single-digits, including 3 overtime losses.
I think we are getting a steal here with them at this price. This is an absolutely brutal spot for Memphis, who lost a game they shouldn't have in Thursday's 86-92 overtime loss at Cincinnati. Not easy playing extra time on the road and then having just 2 days off before going back on the road against a quality opponent.
Memphis plays good defense and are solid on the boards, but that's not a concern here. UConn is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home vs good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or less at least 15 games into the season and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home vs teams who are outrebounding teams by 4+ boards/game. Huskies are also 21-10 ATS last 31 at home and 9-2 ATS last 11 when they have won 2 of their last 3. Take Connecticut!
|02-16-20||Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5||Top||58-55||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern.
Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road.
The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday.
Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota!
|02-15-20||Utah State -5 v. Fresno State||71-59||Win||100||15 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Utah State -5 -109
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Bulldogs. This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah State given how well they are playing right now. The Aggies come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They got a realistic shot here of finishing No. 2 in the MWC behind San Diego State.
As for Fresno State, they avoided a 3rd straight loss with a 84-78 OT win at San Jose State, but that's not exactly a positive needing OT to beat a team like that. This has just not been a good year for the Bulldogs, who have a losing record at 5-6 at home. Even more important is their awful 2-7-1 ATS record in home lined games.
One thing Fresno State does well is generate offensive rebounds and they have to with how sloppy they are with the ball and their lack of shooting. Problem is the Aggies are a great defensive rebounding team. I just don't see the Bulldogs keeping this close. Take Utah State!
|02-15-20||Tennessee +4.5 v. South Carolina||61-63||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +4½ -115
I think a lot of people will have a hard time backing Tennessee on the road at this price, especially with how well South Carolina has been playing. Frank Martin's Gamecocks just went on the road and destroyed Georgia 75-59, improving to 5-1 over their last 6 games.
One of the big reasons I think we are seeing the number a little low, is this has become a difficult spot for South Carolina. Just as everything was going well for the Gamecocks, news of NCAA allegations was announced Thursday. The slightest of distractions can derail a team and I just think they struggle to play well here.
Tennessee has also been playing well here of late and recently won as a road dog at Alabama. Last time out they absolutely destroyed Arkansas 82-61. Vols are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 off a win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after a win by 20 or more. Take Tennessee!
|02-15-20||Tampa Bay Vipers v. Seattle Dragons +3||9-17||Win||100||52 h 23 m||Show|
3* XFL - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Seattle Dragons +3 -110
I like the value here with the Dragons as 3-point home dog against the Vipers. Seattle lost their opener 31-19 on the road to the defenders. DC might just be the tam to beat. Cardale Jones graded out as the best QB in the league in Week 1, throwing for 235 yards and 2 scores. The Dragons simply had no answer for him and wide out Eli Rogers (6 catches, 73 yards).
The defense should have a much easier time containing Tampa Bay's Aaron Murray, who was able to guide the Vipers to just 3-points in their 20-point loss at New York.
I also think you have to factor in home field advantage. Home team won 3 of the 4 games in Week 1 and Seattle is known across multiple sports for their loyal fan bases. Take Seattle!
|02-15-20||Notre Dame +12.5 v. Duke||60-94||Loss||-108||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +12½ -108
The Fighting Irish are definitely worth a look here as a double-digit underdog against the Blue Devils. I think Notre Dame is built to give Duke a tough contest. The Irish are certainly playing well coming in, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 with the only loss a mere 1-point setback on the road at Virginia (really should have won). They have covered 6 straighta against the number.
Duke is always going to have an inflated number on them because of how big a public play they are, so the value is definitely there. I also think this is a good spot to fade the Blue Devils, who have played two monster games leading up to this. Last Saturday they had that epic OT win over rival UNC and then Monday had to grind out a 5-point home win over FSU.
Another thing to note here is that this is Notre Dame's only regular-season game against Duke and given how big it is to play Duke for these other ACC teams, I think we get their best effort here. Irish are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Notre Dame!
|02-15-20||Louisville v. Clemson +6.5||62-77||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Clemson +6½ -110
I like the value here with Clemson getting a decent number at home in Saturday's matchup with No. 5 Louisville. The Cardinals had their 10-game winning streak snapped in a 58-64 loss at Georgia Tech on Wednesday as a similarly priced 6-point dog.
Louisville really came out sluggish in that contest and I think the perception here is they will bounce back. Easier said than done when playing on the road with just two days off against a hungry Clemson team that is going to lay it all on the line in this one.
Tigers had been struggling, but put an end to their 3-game skid with an emphatic 72-52 road win at Pitt on Wednesday. Not only will they be motivated here at home against a top ranked foe, but they will come in very confident.
Tigers are 15-5 ATS last 20 at home off a cover, 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Clemson!
|02-15-20||Georgia +1 v. Texas A&M||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||16 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +1 -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at Texas A&M. These two teams played a couple weeks ago at Georgia and the Bulldogs won convincingly 63-48.
Aggies had no answer for Georgia small ball up-tempo attack and really struggled to slow down star freshman Anthony Edwards. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect those same struggles in the rematch.
The Bulldogs have lost 3 straight since that win over Texas A&M, but that's almost a positive given they are 9-2 ATS last 2 years when coming off 3 or more straight conference losses. Aggies are also 0-7 ATS as a favorite, 0-6 ATS at home after playing a game as a home dog and 2-9 ATS last 11 at home when revening a loss. Take Georgia!
|02-14-20||World v. USA -4||131-151||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Rising Stars VEGAS INSIDER on USA -4 -110
I'm confident Team USA is going to come away with a win and cover in tonight's Rising Star Challenge. Last year Team USA won going away 161-144 and I think we could see another blowout in this one.
Team USA looks to be even better this year, as they got the two best rookies in the game in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, who both look like guys who will be at or near the top of the game for a long time coming. Team World has Doncic, but much like USA's Trae Young, he doesn't figure to play a lot. Doncic and Young both made the real All-Star game on Sunday and aren't going to log many minutes in this thing.
With that said I think Zion and Morant are going to put on a show at the United Center. Take Team USA!
|02-14-20||Rider +5.5 v. Siena||64-73||Loss||-109||20 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider +5½ -109
Rider is definitely worth a look here at this price. This is a big number for the Broncs to be catching. These two teams already played once this season at Rider and the Broncos won that game 85-77. That was back in a stretch in which Rider was 2-6 over a 8 game run.
This time around the Broncs have won 5 of 6 and just won and covered as a 9-point home favoire against Niagara in their last game. There's no question they are going to be up for this one. That first meeting was heated. Multiple players were ejected.
In that first meeting Riders' guards Vaughn and Jordan combined for 50 points and the Broncs defense forced the Saints into 20 turnovers. No reason not to expect more of the same this time around.
Sienna is 2-6 ATS last 8 games off a win and 3-8 ATS last 11 times they have been listed as the favorite. Take Rider!
|02-14-20||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3||Top||93-64||Loss||-104||20 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure -3 -104
I absolutely love the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number at home against the Wildcats. St Bonaventure comes into this game on a roll. Last time out they avoided the dreaded trap game, making easy work of St. Joes on the road after that big upset win at Duquesne.
You factor in how well the team is playing and the energy and excitement around this game, the atmosphere in the Reilly Center should be a big advantage for them. They don't get many prime time games on ESPN2 in their home gym.
On top of that, Davidson has shown no ability to play up their potential on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have really been underachievers all season. They are 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS when they are tasked with playing a game away from home. They are also a great fade when the books are giving them points. Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as an underdog. Take St. Bonaventure!
|02-13-20||Washington +4 v. USC||Top||56-62||Loss||-114||10 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Washington +4 -114
Easy play here on the Huskies. Most will look to stay clear of Washington, as they come into this game having lost 6 straight. Not me. Huskies are so close to getting this thing on track and I think they might have found something in the 2nd half against Washington State with their two point guard look.
USC is also not playing great right now. Trojans are reeling off 3 straight losses and fresh off a heartbreaking loss at ASU. I just think USC is in a bad place right now and are going to have a hard time putting the Huskies away. Keep in mind Washington absolutely owned the first meeting, beating the Trojans 72-40 back in early January.
USC has covered their last 2 and 7 of 9 overall, but that's a positive here. Trojans are 2-11 ATS last 13 at home after 2 or more straight covers and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after covering 4/5 of their last 6. USC is also a mere 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a favorite. Take Washington!
|02-13-20||Thunder v. Pelicans -2||123-118||Loss||-109||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pelicans -2 -109
The Pelicans are worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. New Orleans is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are different looking team since adding in rookie phenom Zion Williamson. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Most recently destroying a hot Blazers team 138-117 on their home floor.
I expect to see a big effort here from the Pelicans to keep that positive momentum going into the All-Star break. As for the Thunder, they have lost their last two and both were at home, including a 8-point loss to the Spurs last time out as a 8-point favorite. OKC has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and I just don't see them flipping on the switch for one game before the break, especially on the road.
There's also triple-revenge in play, as the Thunder have won the first 3 meetings between these two this season. Thing is all 3 of those came in the first two months of the season (last played 12/1).
Pelicans are 34-18 ATS last 52 at home revenging a loss of 3-points or less. They are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|02-13-20||Northern Colorado -4 v. Northern Arizona||Top||84-54||Win||100||19 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Colorado -4 -103
I love the value here with Northern Colorado laying a short number on the road against Northern Arizona. The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge from a 6-point home loss to the Lumberjacks and are getting them at the right time. Lumberjacks have lost 2 of 3 and the lone win was in OT against Big Sky bottom feeder Idaho State.
One of the biggest strengths of Northern Arizona is their 3-point shooting. The Lumberjacks average 8 made 3-pointers and are shooting 38% on the season. They rank 2nd in Big Sky in 3-point shooting and yet are 7th in 2-point shooting.
Northern Colorado is elite in terms of defending the 3-pointer. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big Sky in 3-point pct. defense and 6th nationally. They are also 6th best in the country in percentage of shots they allow from 3-point range.
Last time these two played the Bears offense just wasn't in sync. Northern Colorado comes in averaging 75.2 ppg in their last 5 and the Lumberjacks are giving up 73.2 ppg in their last 5. Bears did make 9 3-pointers in the loss, but shot 38 for a mere 23.7%. On the season they shoot 37% from 3 and Northern Arizona is giving up 35% in conference play.
Bears are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, 15-5 in their last 20 on the road after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Northern Colorado!
|02-13-20||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -2.5||66-74||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Texas State -2½ -109
The Bobcats are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Trojans. Little Rock has a big target on their back in the Sun Belt, as they are 3-games clear of the next best team in the league with a 12-2 mark.
The fact that they are a dog here speaks a lot to how much the books respect this Texas State team. There's definitely a lot to like with the Bobcats in this matchup. For starters, they will be out for revenge from a mere 4-point loss at Little Rock earlier this season.
This is also a Texas State team that is rolling.After starting out 1-4 in the Sun Belt, Bobcats have won 7 of their last 9 conference games. Really should be 8-1 in this stretch as they gave away a game last time out at App St.
They led 36-18 and lost 57-60, scoring just 6 points in the final 10 minutes of the game. No way they lose that if leading scorer Nijal Pearson plays. He'll be back for this one as he simply missed the game for the birth of his daughter.
Bobcats have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 games. Teams that have pulled off this feat are a dominating 81-40 (67%) ATS last 5 years in games with a line of +3 to -3 and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games. Take Texas State!
|02-13-20||Eastern Kentucky +4 v. Morehead State||78-71||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky +4 -110
I really like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a road dog against Morehead State. The Colonels had been on a tear before a small hiccup on the road against SIU Edwardsville. The fact that they only lost by 8, despite shooting 7 for 37 on 3-pointers and missing one of their better players in Russhard Cruickshank, really says a lot about how good this team is.
Cruickshank should be ready to go as he's had another 4 days to recover after nearly giving it a go in their last game. Either way the Colonels should bounce back with a big effort here against the Eagles.
Morehead State is a misleading 3-1 over their last 4, as they had 3 straight games and wins over the 3 worst teams in the Ohio Valley. Those are their only 3 wins in their last 8 games. EKY is 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a road dog. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|02-13-20||Drexel +6 v. William & Mary||72-77||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money NO-BRAINER on Drexel +6 -109
The price here is too good to pass up with Drexel. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won that contest 84-57. It's really been the undoing for the Tribe, who came in at 6-0 in conference play and are now 8-5.
Drexel dominated every aspect of that game against William & Mary. I get they too have took a turn for the worse with 4 losses in their last 5, but no way should they be this big of a dog in this fight. Especially with how the Tribe's offense is struggling. William & Mary is averaging 58.2 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5 games.
It would be on thing if their defense was playing well, but they are giving up 70 ppg on 50% shooting during this same 5-game stretch. Tribe are 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS last 4 as a favorite. The road team and underdog are both 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. Take Drexel!
|02-12-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5||120-116||Loss||-105||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets +2½ -105
Denver is definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Lakers. With how big a public play LA is right now, for the books to hang the Lakers at basically a pick'em, it's clear they like the Nuggets in this spot.
There's definitely reason to fade LA. Denver is one of the more difficult places to play, especially for teams who have had to do a lot of travel. The Lakers have been all over the place. After a home game last Thursday, they traveled to Golden State for a game on Saturday, they then returned home for a game Monday and now are back on the road for this one.
Add in the distractions of All-Star weekend, which is something they can focus on 100% once this game is over, as they don't play again until next Friday. I don't see Denver caring as much about getting to the break. Every team wants to beat the Lakers and the Nuggets are rolling into this one with a lot of confidence with 4 straight wins and covers.
Lakers are also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a road favorite and 1-6 ATS last 7 on just 1 day of rest. Nuggets are 16-7 ATS last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|02-12-20||Providence v. St. John's +2||69-80||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on St. John's +2 -105
I really like the spot and the value with St. John's as a home dog against the Friars. The Red Storm come in off 3 straight losses and we know they are going to be motivated here, especially playing with revenge from a earlier 5-point loss at Providence.
Friars aren't exactly coming into this one with momentum, as they let one slip away on the road Saturday in a 58-64 loss to Xavier. Providence is a mere 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons after playing their last game on the road, 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite.
While the Friars have struggled in this spot, St. John's has covered 5 of their last 7 off a game where they failed to cover and are a dominant 6-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home underdog. Take St. John's!
|02-12-20||Louisville v. Georgia Tech +6||58-64||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech +6 -105
The Yellow Jackets are worth a look here as a home dog against Louisville. There's no question who the better team is. The Cardinals are 21-3 and ranked No. 5 in the country and Georgia Tech is sitting there with a losing record at 11-13.
I think these are the toughest games for a team like Louisville, who is riding high on a 10-game winning streak, which they just extended to 10 with a grueling 80-73 win at home against Virginia. This is the definition of a letdown spot for the Cardinals.
On the flips side, Georgia Tech is going to relish the opportunity to try and knock off a Top 5 team on their home floor. Especially given how close the Yellow Jackets were to upsetting the Cardinals in Louisville a few weeks back, as they lost 64-68 as a 13-point dog.
Georgia Tech lost their last game 64-73 at Pitt, which only adds more value to this play, as the Yellow Jackets are a dominant 9-3 ATS off a loss this season (23-9 Last 32 off a loss). Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech!
|02-12-20||Hawks v. Cavs +2.5||105-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cavs +2½ -110
This is an easy play here on Cleveland as a home dog against the Hawks. I get the Cavs are a bad team and are off an ugly 41-point loss at home to the Clippers, but no way should the Hawks be laying points on the road to any team in the league.
Atlanta is 6-23 on the road this season and they aren't just losing a bunch of close games. The Hawks are losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. It's easy to see why with how little defense they play. Atlanta allows 122.1 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. It's been even worse than that in their last 5 overall, as they are giving up 125 ppg on 49% shooting.
Hawks are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been asked to lay points on the road. Not to mention they are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|02-11-20||Spurs v. Thunder -7.5||114-106||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Thunder -7½ -109
Easy play here on OKC at home against the Spurs. Big time bounce back spot for the Thunder off a hard fought 1-point loss at home to the Celtics. OKC is still 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games and will have a huge edge here playing on 1-day of rest. Not to mention the Thunder have had to do zero travel of late, playing their 4th straight at home.
As for the Spurs, they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an excruciating 120-127 loss at Denver last night. San Antonio had a 23-point lead over the Nuggets before suffering an absolute meltdown. This will be their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. I don't think there's any recovering from this for the Spurs until after the All-Star break.
Spurs are 2-11 ATS last 13 road games in the month of February, 4-12 ATS last 16 when playing 6 or more games in a 10 day stretch and 2-11 ATS last 13 after losing 4/5 of their last 6. Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 after winning 4 of their last 5. Take OKC!
|02-11-20||Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +13||Top||78-64||Loss||-110||13 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +13 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Commodores as a big double-digit home dog against the Wildcats. Vanderbilt comes in with a 1-9 record in SEC play, which I think has them way undervalued, especially with how well they have been playing.
Commodores have covered 4 straight and all 4 have come against some quality opponents. They lost by just 9 as a 21-point road dog at Kentucky, then lost by just 6 at home to Florida as a 11.5-point dog. They proceeded to then beat LSU 99-90 as a 11.5-point home dog and last time out lost by just 10 at Mississippi State as a 15.5-point dog.
Even though it's a long-shot, I can guarantee you Vanderbilt is approaching this game with the confidence they not only keep it close, but win outright. For a Kentucky team that is sitting at 8-2 and fresh off a big road win at Tennessee, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see them lay an egg here.
Wildcats are just 2-9 ATS this season as a favorite of 10 or more and Commodores are 4-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 last 4 as a dog. Take Vanderbilt!
|02-11-20||Bowling Green +7.5 v. Akron||59-74||Loss||-114||13 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bowling Green +7½ -114
The Falcons are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Zips. Bowling Green suffered a big blow when one of their best players, Dylan Frye, decided to just up and leave the program. Frye was a big part of that team, but if there's a team that can overcome a loss like that it's the Falcons.
I feel the books have inflated the number here on Akron too much. The Zips snapped a two game skid with a win at home over Eastern Michigan, but it was far from a dominant showing. Akron won by the slimmest of margins 59-58, coming no where close to covering as a 12-point favorite. Zips continued to struggle from the field and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Bowling Green won this game outright.
Falcons are 13-5 ATS last 18 times they have been listed as a dog, 13-3 ATS last 16 off a home conference win and 14-5 ATS last 19 on the road off a home win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-10-20||Suns v. Lakers -12.5||100-125||Win||100||15 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Lakers -12½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Lakers at home on Monday. LA avoided a second straight loss with a 125-120 win at Golden State and I think there's some motivation here for them to play well in these last two games before the All-Star break.
As for the Suns, they are really struggling to get going. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 6. While their lone win was a 36-point victory over the Rockets, Houston was resting guys and in a massive flat spot in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back after beating these Lakers the night before.
This also has to be a tired Suns team. Phoenix will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and 6th in the last 9. I just don't see them having the energy needed to keep this game close and let's not forget the Suns are still dealing with a lot of injuries right now.
Phoenix is 7-18 ATS last 25 when playing 6 or more games in a 10-day stretch and are 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Lakers are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a road win. Take Los Angeles!
|02-10-20||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||65-70||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida State +8½ -115
Easy play here on the Seminoles as a near double-digit dog at Duke. I just think there's too much value with FSU in this spot. Blue Devils come into this game off an improbable 98-96 OT win on the road against rival North Carolina. Not only did the game go to OT, but Duke had to rally from double-digits down late in the 2nd half and eventually won the game on a last second shot.
I know the Seminoles are not a team to overlook and I expect Duke to play hard, I just don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to pull away and win this thing by more than the number. In fact, if they struggle at all this is a game the Seminoles can win outright.
FSU can light it up. Seminoles are shooting 46% from the field and 37% from deep on the season. Duke is just 3-15 ATS last 2 seasons when playing a team at least 15 games into the season that is hitting 45% or better from the field. Blue Devils are also 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Florida State!
|02-09-20||Heat +5 v. Blazers||109-115||Loss||-105||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Heat +5 -105
I like the value here with Miami catching a decent number on the road against the Blazers. I just think we are getting a good price on the Heat here due to the fact that they won't have Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. However, they are expected to debut a couple of their new additions in Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala.
The other big there here is I think this is a really tough spot for Portland. Blazers just suffered a crushing 114-117 loss at Utah on Friday in the second leg of a back-to-back. A game they led by 14 at the half and got screwed on a non-goaltending call late. Now they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and this is where their lack of depth really hurts them.
Miami lost 97-105 at Sacramento on Friday, but the Heat are a dominant 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss. Miami has struggled on the road, but Portland is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 4-9 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Take Miami!
|02-09-20||Evansville +12.5 v. Bradley||Top||58-69||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Evansville +12½ -107
I really like the value here with the Purple Aces as a huge road dog against the Braves. Evansville is a team the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with, as they are winless in MVC play at 0-11. That has left the books no choice but to inflate the number in their games and I just feel there's a ton of value here.
While the losses keep mounting, the Purple Aces have been on the verge of that first conference win. They just took Southern Illinois to OT at home in their last game, lost by just 12 at home to UNI in their previous game and only lost by 11 at Illinois St and by 2 at Valpo in their two before that.
Bradley has lost 4 of their last 6 and are off back-to-back double-digit losses at Loyola and Drake. I just think they are going to have a hard time here giving an Evansville team they beat by 20 on the road their full attention. Purple Aces' ability to defend the 3-pointer (29th nationally) is also huge, as the Braves are 313th in 2-point shooting. Take Evansville!
|02-08-20||Pepperdine v. Pacific -3||78-79||Loss||-109||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Pacific -3 -109
Easy play here on the Tigers as a small home favorite against the Waves. Pacific is rolling right now, as they come in having won 3 straight to improve to 6-4 in WCC action. Tigers are tough to beat at home, where they are 12-4 this season and they already beat Pepperdine on the road earlier this year.
Tigers are 32-15 ATS last 47 home games off 2 straight conference wins and should have a field day offensively in this one, as the Waves are giving up 83.2 ppg on 49% shooting in road games this season. While some of that has to do with their non-conf schedule, they are allowing 81.2 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5 games.
Pepperdine is off a 91-77 win at home over Santa Clara, but are just 2-7 ATS last 9 off a SU win. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 after winning 2 of 3 and 1-7 ATS last 8 after scoring 80 or more. Take Pacific!
|02-08-20||Northern Arizona v. Weber State -2||70-76||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Weber State -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Wildcats at basically a pick'em on their home floor against Northern Arizona. Weber State has caught fire here of late with 3 wins in their last 4 to go from 2-6 in Big Sky play to 5-7. I look for them to build on that momentum and get revenge from an earlier 8-point loss at Northern Arizona.
The big thing to note with the Lumberjacks win in the first meeting is they only won by 8 on their home floor, despite shooting 57% from the field and 56% from behind the 3-point line. You shoot like that, you should win by 20+. I just don't see them having near the success on the road, where they are scoring just 68.8 ppg on 43.7% shooting.
With Weber State scoring 80.9 ppg on 50% shooting at home, I just don't see Northern Arizona being able to score enough to win this one. Wildcats are 70-44 (61%) ATS last 114 when revenging a road loss and 32-15 ATS last 47 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take Weber State!
|02-08-20||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -8||Top||73-75||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse -8 -110
Easy play here on the Orange at home against the Demon Deacons. Syracuse should have zero problem beating Wake Forest by double-digits Saturday. Lot to like with the Orange in this one, as they have had a full week off to get their minds right following a tough home loss to Duke last Saturday. Huge motivational spot for Syracuse to put their 2-game losing streak to rest.
As for the Demon Deacons, this is not an ideal spot for them playing on the road for a second straight game after a grueling loss at home to Louisville on Wednesday. I just don't think 2 days is enough for Wake Forest to get their minds right for this game and they have had their troubles keeping games respectable on the road (3 of their last 4 on the road have resulted in losses by 10 or more).
Demon Deacons are also just 2-7 overall, which is worth noting, as they are a mere 14-33 ATS last 47 on the road when they come in having lost 6/7 of their last 8. They are also just 3-13 ATS last 16 road games off a conference loss. Favorite has also covered 5 straight in the series. Take Syracuse!
|02-08-20||Pelicans v. Pacers -2||124-117||Loss||-109||8 h 39 m||Show|
4* BEST BET on Pacers -2 -109
Analysis will be posted shortly
|02-08-20||South Florida +8.5 v. Memphis||75-73||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Situational ATS DESTROYER on South Florida +8½ -109
I like the value here with South Florida as a near double-digit dog on the road against Memphis. While the Tigers come in having won 3 straight, only one of those was by more than 7 points and that was against a bad Temple team last time out.
I just don't think this Memphis team can be trusted to lay a number like this. South Florida has got some momentum going with back-to-back wins and are off one of their best games this season, beating UCF by 16 at home last Saturday. Bulls will also draw plenty of confidence and motivation from a near upset of Memphis at home earlier this season, which they lost by just 4 points.
Having a week to prepare for USF is huge, especially given that Memphis has quick turnaround after playing on Wednesday. Tigers also struggle with turnovers and had 22 against the Bulls in that first meeting. South Florida should have a big edge there again, which will make it really hard on Memphis to pull away.
Bulls are 18-6 ATS last 24 off a home win, 13-3 ATS last 16 after playing 2 straight games as a favorite, 14-4 ATS last 18 off 2 straight wins and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 off two straight covers as a favorite. Take South Florida!
|02-08-20||Furman -4 v. Western Carolina||82-73||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Furman -4 -109
The Paladins are worth a look here as a small road favorite at Western Carolina. Furman is sitting tied on top the Southern Conference at 9-2 with East Tennessee State and are one of the better small conference teams not a lot of people know about. Paladins are 73rd right now in KenPom.
Western Carolina in comparison is sitting at No. 158. Furman comes into this one playing extremely well, as they have won 4 straight, most recently destroying Mercer 79-57 at home. That was the same Mercer team they only beat by 2 on the road earlier this season.
The Catamounts fall into a similar spot, as they gave the Paladins a really good game back in January, losing by just 4 on the road. I don't see Furman playing around with Western Carolina this time around.
Look for turnovers to be the difference maker, as the Paladins are 26th nationally in defensive turnover rate, while Western Carolina is 236th in offensive turnover rate. Paladins are also 13-4 ATS last 17 as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference home win. Take Furman!
|02-08-20||VMI v. The Citadel||75-64||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on VMI PK -110
I like the value here with the Keydets at a pick'em on the road against The Citadel. All you have to do here is look at the recent history between these two teams to see the value with VMI. The Keydets have covered 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series and are covering by almost 7 ppg.
You also have to factor in all the injuries that the Bulldogs are dealing with. Not only do they got several key guys out, but those that are able to play are playing at less than 100%. On top of that, The Citadel is sitting winless in Southern Conference play at 0-11. They aren't just losing, they are getting beat badly, as 6 of their last 7 losses are by 9 or more points.
Playing another bad team hasn't helped them out much either. Bulldogs are 15-34-2 ATS last 51 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. VMI on the other hand is 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have faced a team that's allowing 77 or more points/game. Take VMI!
|02-07-20||Iona +6 v. Quinnipiac||Top||73-52||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iona +6
I love the value here with the Gaels as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Iona, as they try to make it work under interim head coach Tra Arnold, but this is just too good a price to pass up.
Quinnipiac is setting 3rd in the MAAC at 6-4, but they are just 2-4 in league play after starting out 4-0. Most recently losing by 16 on the road at Niagara, who is ranked just slightly higher than the Gaels.
Bobcats have been a good fade at home off a road loss. They are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home off a conference road loss and a mere 1-11 ATS in their last 12 at home off a road loss by 10 or points.
Quinnipiac has also not had much luck against teams that make a living from the 3-point line. Bobcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Iona!
|02-06-20||Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine||77-91||Loss||-115||14 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Santa Clara +3 -115
I really like the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Waves. These two teams just played two weeks ago at Santa Clara and it came down to the wire with Pepperdine winning 90-86 in OT. Since 1997 the Broncos are 60% ATSS when revening a same season loss.
Most might think the Waves are the way with this time the game being played on their home floor. However, Pepperdine is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also 2-10 ATS last 12 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS last 8 as a home favorite. Road team and underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series. Take Santa Clara!
|02-06-20||Pelicans v. Bulls +5||125-119||Loss||-105||10 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +5 -105
The Bulls are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pelicans. The books are absolutely begging you to take New Orleans here, as they are feeding into the Zion Williamson hype. I know Chicago has disappointed and are dealing with some injuries, but they are going to show up with a big effort here.
Zion has looked great, but the Pelicans are just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 7 games since he made his debut. I really think this is a tough spot for them having just recently played at Houston and then at home against the Bucks. Really easy for them to look past a struggling Bulls team on the road.
Pelicans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago in the meantime will be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Chicago!
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