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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-17-18||Michigan State +1.5 v. Nebraska||6-9||Loss||-105||14 h 47 m||Show|
3* Nebraska/Mich St BIG 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
Great price here to back the Spartans on the road against the Cornhuskers. Michigan State has one of these best defenses in the country. The Spartans come in allowing 19.7 ppg and just 327 ypg. They are as good as it gets against the run, as they are giving up 2.5 yards/carry and a mere 76 yards/game.
That's should be the difference here. With winds expected to be blowing at close to 20 mph, it's going to be really hard for either team to establish anything in the passing game. That really negates the big play potential for this Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed at least 28 in every Big Ten game and are giving up 38.9 ppg in conference play. As poor as the Spartans are offensively, they will be able to score enough to get the win. Take Michigan State!
|11-17-18||William & Mary +13 v. Notre Dame||Top||64-73||Win||100||2 h 4 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +
Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford.
Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less.
Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary!
|11-16-18||Boise State v. New Mexico +20||45-14||Loss||-110||32 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout BLOWOUT on New Mexico +
There's too much value here to pass up with the Lobos as a near 3-touchdown dog on their home field. This is just a classic example of the nationally ranked and house hold name being overvalued in a prime time game.
Not the easiest of spots for the Broncos. Boise State is fresh off that huge win at home over Fresno State, where they went off as a dog. Now they got a massive game on deck against Utah State. I get they have to win this one for next week's to matter, but hard for them to not look ahead to that one.
Given that game on deck, you have to think they just want to get a win and get out. Once they get a comfortable lead, they are going to have to think about resting guys and making sure no one gets hurt. So if things do get out of hand, the backdoor should be open for the Lobos.
New Mexico played Boise tough on the road last year, losing by 14 as a 17-point dog. I get they are 3-7 and don't have bowl eligibility to play for, but teams in the MWC get up for Boise and they know what's at stake for the Broncos in this game.
Lobos come in having lost 5 straight and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games off 3 straight conference losses. We saw this exact same trend cash in their last home game in a cover against San Diego State. A team that beat Boise earlier this year. Take New Mexico!
|11-16-18||Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming||Top||72-67||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +
It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago.
I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team.
Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara!
|11-16-18||St. John's -2 v. Rutgers||84-65||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. John’s -
The Red Storm should have no problem securing a win on the road against Rutgers. St. John's is a team to watch out for. This is now year three under head coach Chris Mullin and the team showed some promise late last year. They get back arguably the best player in the Big East in junior guard Shamorie Ponds and got a huge boost when Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron was cleared to play. Both are averaging 20+ ppg early on.
I like the direction Rutgers is going and they won't go down without a fight a home, but I just think the Red Storm are the far superior team in this one. Rutgers just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to compete with the likes of Ponds and Heron. Take St. John's!
|11-16-18||Ball State v. Alabama -3||61-79||Win||100||2 h 54 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Alabama
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||38-41||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* FAU/N Texas NCAAF Weeknight DESTROYER on Florida Atlantic +
This North Texas team can't be trusted and are getting too much respect here against Lane Kiffin's Owls. It's been a bit of a disappointing season for FAU, but it's not as bad as you might think given their 5-5 record. Two of those losses were on the road against Oklahoma and UCF. They also lost by 1 at Middle Tenn and fell to quality teams in Marshall and La Tech.
Most are going to take North Texas here because the perception is that they will be out for revenge from last year's two losses to FAU, including the one most remember in the C-USA title game. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for the Mean Green, who just lost outright as a 15.5-point favorite to the Monarchs.
Owls on the other hand are coming in off arguably their best 2-game stretch of the season, as they went on the road and rolled FIU 49-14 and followed that up with a 34-15 win against WKU. I don't think it will be that lopsided against North Texas, but I do expect them to win this one outright. Take FAU!
|11-15-18||Packers +3 v. Seahawks||Top||24-27||Push||0||82 h 45 m||Show|
5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Packers +
There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals.
While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense.
The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay!
|11-15-18||Ohio State -2 v. Creighton||69-60||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt Vegas ATS BLOWOUT on Ohio State -
The value here is with Ohio State as a short favorite against the Bluejays. The Buckeyes surprised a lot of people last year and I think they are going to do it again, as a lot of people are expecting a step back after they lost their star duo of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae-Sean Tate. Not me.
Last year's surprise run came in the first year under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who is known for getting the most out of the talent he has to work with. He had to work extra hard with the talent he was able to get at Butler. Not so much at Ohio State, where they get big time recruits. This year's freshman class, mixed with some talented veterans will be tough to beat.
We already seen them go on the road and beat Cincinnati by 8 as a 4.5-point dog and then absolutely annihilate Purdue-Ft Wayne by 46 as a 18.5-point favorite. Creighton is in a very similar spot, having lost their top two scorers and only returning 2 starters, but they don't have the talent that the Buckeyes do. Take Ohio State!
|11-14-18||Niagara +14 v. Loyola-Chicago||Top||62-75||Win||100||17 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Niagara +
I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back.
We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year.
The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara!
|11-13-18||Georgetown v. Illinois -6||Top||88-80||Loss||-102||11 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -
I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season.
Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier.
Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier.
I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois!
|11-13-18||Harvard v. Massachusetts -3.5||74-71||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on UMASS -
Really like the value here with the Minutemen laying a short number at home against the Crimson. I like the direction this UMass team is headed under Matt McCall. They got a legit scorer in junior Luwane Pipkins (21.2 ppg last year) and a sharp-shooting sophomore guard in Carl Pierre (47% from 3's) to lead the way. They also got a big who can dominate in Rashaan Holloway and a couple of transfers in Curtis Cobb and Jonathan Laurent who are starting.
Harvard is a team that has high expectations this year of making the the NCAA Tournament, but we just saw them lose 81-71 at home to Northeastern. Until they get back their two studs from injury in Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns, this team will struggle to win games. Take UMass!
|11-13-18||Wisconsin v. Xavier +2||77-68||Loss||-102||9 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational Vegas Insider on Xavier +
I'm not buying the Badgers being a road favorite over the Musketeers. Xavier was a No. 1 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, but lost head coach Chris Mack and a trio of playmakers in Trevon Blueitt, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter. I just think the assumption here is that the Musketeers will take a big step back this year.
I don't think that's the case at all. Mack's assistant Travis Steele is taking over a team that not only returns a lot of talent, but added in some experienced grad transfers and solid freshmen. I get Wisconsin gets everyone back from a team that was decimated by injuries last year, but these are Bo Ryan's Badgers any more. I'm not saying Wisconsin won't be a strong team, I just think they are getting a little too much respect on the road against a Big East power. Take Xavier!
|11-13-18||Western Michigan -8.5 v. Ball State||41-42||Loss||-110||2 h 44 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Western Michigan
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3.5||27-23||Loss||-100||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* Giants/49ers MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on 49ers -
I think the perception here is that these are two bad teams and the value is with New York as a dog. I'm not buying it. Everyone keeps thinking the Giants are better than what they have shown because they got two dynamic players in Odell Beckham and Saquan Barkley. The problem is, the offensive line can't block or pass protect and Eli Manning is simply not very good anymore.
Add in the fact there's nothing for New York to play for with a record of 1-7 and this is not a team I would want anything to do with on the road. As for the 49ers, I think we can confidently say they are still playing hard after the effort they gave on Thursday Night Football last week against the Raiders. You can say what you want about Nick Mullens first start being a fluke because it came against a bad Oakland team, but he looked like the real deal.
There's also something about Monday Night Football that brings out the best in San Francisco. The 49ers are a ridiculous 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games played on MNF. Take San Francisco!
|11-12-18||Troy State +6 v. Pittsburgh||75-84||Loss||-103||8 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Troy +
I look for the Trojans to go into Pittsburgh and give the Panthers all they can handle. Pitt has started out 2-0, but there's nothing to be excited about wins over Youngstown State and VMI. There's still a long way for these Panthers to go before they can be taken seriously.
Pitt won just 8 games all of last year, going winless (0-18) in ACC play. They fired head coach Kevin Stallings and several key players either graduated or transferred out of the program. The future figures to be bright under Jeff Capel, but this figures to be a long rebuilding season.
Troy is one of the top teams out of the Sun Belt and showcased some of their potential in a mere 4-point loss at St Louis as a 12-point dog last time out. Trojans nearly won on the road as a double-digit dog, despite shooting just 38.9% from the field. If they can hit some shots tonight, I definitely could see them winning this outright. Take Troy!
|11-12-18||Bowling Green +8.5 v. VCU||61-72||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +
I like the value here with the Falcons as a near double-digit dog against the Rams. Bowling Green comes in at 1-1, but the lone loss is nothing to be ashamed of. The Falcons lost 84-80 at St. John's as a 18.5-point underdog. Bowling Green shot 50% against the Red Storm and if they are hitting their shots they are a very difficult team to beat.
VCU is a program that still gets respect nationally from their success under Shaka Smart and last year the Rams missed out on the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. While VCU has opened up 2-0, neither win has been all that impressive. They have beat Gardner-Webb and Hampton, each by a final score of 69-57. They failed to cover as a 14-point favorite against Garder Webb and there wasn't even a line against Hampton.
Falcons are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their last game. Take Bowling Green!
|11-11-18||Chargers v. Raiders +10.5||20-6||Loss||-110||81 h 50 m||Show|
3* NFL Week 10 Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Raiders +
Oakland couldn't have looked much worse than they did in a 34-3 loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. A game the Raiders were actually favored to win. The public isn't going to want anything to do with this team and the books know it. They have drastically inflated this line on the Chargers and there's just no way I'm passing up on a double-digit home dog.
It's one thing for the Raiders to not show up against a bad 49ers team that had a guy no one heard of playing quarterback, but I'm confident they will show up here at home against a hated division rival.
Last 15 times Derek Carr has been a dog of 6.5 to 13.5 points the Raiders have gone an impressive 10-5 ATS. Oakland is also 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Chargers are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. Take Oakland!
|11-11-18||Southern Miss +11 v. SMU||74-64||Win||100||5 h 28 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Southern Miss +
I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a double-digit dog against the Mustangs. Southern Miss is a team you want to look out for early on this season. They are now a few years removed from the NCAA sanctions and will have basically their entire roster back from last year's 16-win team. They are a legit sleeper in C-USA and will be out to make a statement here against a quality program like SMU.
The Mustangs won their opener at home against Northwestern State, but it wasn't pretty. SMU only won by 11-points as a massive 25.5-point favorite. They shot just 39% from the field, which is a bit concerning given the level of competition they were playing. SMU did lose their go-to-guy in Shake Milton, who led the team with 18.0 ppg). They will also be without projected starting guard Jarrey Foster. Look for Golden Eagles to hang around and maybe win this game outright. Take Southern Miss!
|11-11-18||Patriots v. Titans +7||Top||10-34||Win||100||100 h 19 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans +
Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans.
I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg.
While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game.
Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee!
|11-11-18||Lions +7 v. Bears||22-34||Loss||-115||100 h 15 m||Show|
4* NFC North Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Lions +
There's simply too much value here with Detroit as a touchdown dog in Sunday's NFC North clash with the Bears. Chicago is sitting on top the division and off back-to-back blowout wins over the Jets and Bills. The Lions on the other hand have lost 2 straight and not exactly looked great in the process, scoring just 14 at home against the Seahawks and 9 last week at Minnesota.
All this has the line here inflated to the point where you have to take a shot with the Lions. I get Chicago has a great defense, but I'm not the least bit sold on that Bears offense and this Detroit defense has been playing better of late. Matthew Stafford has also enjoyed recent trips to Soldier Field, winning 4 of 5.
Bears are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when coming off back-to-back covers as a favorite and the Lions are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after trailing by 10+ points at the half in each of their last 2. Take Detroit!
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +6||51-14||Loss||-110||62 h 6 m||Show|
3* NFL Week 10 Underdog PLAY OF TH DAY on Bengals +
I know Cincinnati is dealing with some injuries and likely won't have star wide A.J. Green on the field, but I think that only adds to the already awful spot for New Orleans. Most are just going to assume the Saints keep rolling after their big win over the Rams, but I just think this a massive flat spot.
The last 4 games have really all been big time spots for New Orleans. The first was a home game against the Redskins on MNF where Brees was going for the passing yards all-time record. Then came back-to-back grinding road games against Baltimore and Minnesota before a showdown with LA for the all-important head-to-head tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. On deck is a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs at home.
Drew Brees has faced the Saints 3 times and gone just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. Andy Dalton on the other hand is an impressive 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last 9 times the Bengals have been listed as a home dog. Take Cincinnati!
|11-10-18||Clemson v. Boston College +20||27-7||Push||0||22 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +
I just think the price is right to take a shot on the Eagles here as a massive home dog. Clemson couldn't have looked much better since that scare against Syracuse at home. They beat Wake Forest 63-3, NC State 41-7, FSU 59-10 and Louisville 77-16. Impressive to say the least, but outside of the NC State game, those other 3 teams aren't very good and NC State just lost at home to the Demon Deacons with WF playing a backup QB.
Simply put, the ACC is way down this year, but Boston College is one of the better teams in this league. I think Chestnut Hill is one of the more difficult places to play in the ACC, especially when you got a good BC team hosting a top tier opponent like the Tigers. One thing is for sure, the Eagles are going to play their hearts out with a chance to potentially move into the drivers seat to the ACC Atlantic title.
I don't think that's going to happen, but with the way BC can run the football, they should be able to keep that Clemson offense off the field and I think the Eagles defense will be aided by mother nature, as temps will be in the high 30's with winds at close to 15 mph.
Wouldn't be the first time the books have undervalued BC. Eagles are 15-6 ATS last 21 games overall, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover and 11-1 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take Boston College!
|11-10-18||Northern Iowa -4 v. Texas-Arlington||65-74||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa -
Really like the value here with UNI as a short favorite against UT Arlington. Both teams come in off wins against teams they were all but guarantee to beat. I just think this is a complete mismatch in terms of talent.
The Mavericks went 21-13 last year, but fired head coach Scott Cross because the AD was upset about not making any NCAA Tournament appears. Cross had won 72 the past 3 seasons. Arlington not only will be adjusting to a new coach (Chris Ogden), but they have to replace all 5 starters, including two of the best players to ever play at the program.
UNI went just 16-16 last year and 7-11 in the Missouri Valley. First time since 2002 that they were under .500 in conference play. They were better than their record (KenPom had them rated 3rd best team in the MWC). I like head coach Ben Jacobson and he's got the Panthers flying under the radar in 2018. Take Northern Iowa!
|11-10-18||Florida State +18 v. Notre Dame||13-42||Loss||-105||59 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF NON-CONF (FSU/ND) GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
As difficult as it might be to take Florida State, I really like the Seminoles to give the Irish a major scare on Saturday. Not only is Notre Dame starting to feel the pressure of each game down the stretch, but now they have to play without starting quarterback Ian Book, who is dealing with a rib injury.
It will be back to Brandon Wimbush for the Notre Dame offense and while he's experienced and fully capable of guiding this team to a victory, the offense won't be as potent with him under center. While the Irish have everything to lose, FSU has nothing to lose at this point and that makes them a dangerous team. Expect them to go for it on 4th down and toss in a few trick plays to try and pull off the upset and keep slim homes of making a bowl game alive.
Irish have historically struggled against the number this time of the year. Notre Dame is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games in the month of November and 7-18-1 in their last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Look for the Seminoles to keep it closer than expected. Take Florida State!
|11-10-18||Temple +4.5 v. Houston||59-49||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +
I like the value here with Temple as a dog against the Cougars. I think people are just assuming that the Owls aren't going to show up for this one off that heartbreaking loss at UCF. At the same time, they are writing off Houston's ugly 45-31 loss at SMU as a bad showing in a game they didn't have to win (still control their own destiny for ACC West title).
I just think the books are begging for you to take Houston in this one, when Temple might be the better team. The Owls have been a different team since their 0-2 start and are 5-2 in their last 7 with their only losses AT BC and UCF. I think the defense for Temple can slow down this Cougars attack and the Owls will be able to move the ball against a Houston defense that has allowed 35+ in each of their last 3 games.
Owls are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 conference games, 13-5 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 41-19 in their last 60 road games and 21-7 ATS last 28 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|11-10-18||Columbia +4 v. Marist||76-82||Loss||-108||10 h 5 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Columbia +
I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. Marist might be one of the better teams in the MAAC, but that's not saying much. The Red Foxes went on the road and lost at Army in their opener, doing so despite shooting 51.9% from the field.
Columbia is a team that could surprise in the Ivy League this year. They have 4 starters back, as well as several of their top reserves. Last year a young team struggled to win away from home (1-14), but now they should start beating these teams on the road where they have the edge. Look for the Lions to pull off the minor upset. Take Columbia!
|11-10-18||Oregon v. Utah -4||25-32||Win||100||43 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Utes as a small home favorite against the Ducks. I know Utah is coming off a loss at ASU and in the defeat lost starting quarterback Tyler Huntley and then later in the week saw leading rusher Zack Moss go down to a season-ending injury. Even with those two big injuries, I like Utah to win this game and cover at home.
Oregon had everything in front of them when they pulled off the big upset win at home over Washington, but the Ducks lost the next week at Washington State and just haven't been the same. They followed up the loss to the Cougars with an awful 44-15 loss at Arizona and while the rebounded with a 42-21 win at home against UCLA, they had 9 fewer first downs than the Bruins and UCLA outgained the Ducks 496-492.
Utah backup quarterback Jason Shelly didn't look great in relief against the Sun Devils, but that was on the road against a good defense and he was pressed into a tough spot playing from behind. Oregon doesn't pose near the threat defensively and he'll be much better prepared. There's also still a lot still at stake for Utah, who is sitting tied on top the Pac-12 South at 4-3 with USC and Arizona.
Ducks are 2-10 ATS last 12 conference road games and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after playing 3 straight conference games (later in the year). Oregon is also a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 off a home win and 0-7 off a win by 21 or more. Take Utah!
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||53 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +
It would be easy to want to jump on Alabama here after watching them go into LSU and beat the No. 3 team in the country 29-0 with a 576 to 196 edge in total yards and 29 first downs to the Tigers 13. I just think people don't understand how difficult it is to play after investing so much in the game the previous week, especially this late in the year.
Alabama head coach Nick Saban has came out and said just how much that game against LSU meant to him and his team and how hard it will be for them to emotionally get up for the Bulldogs. They have traditionally played Mississippi State after facing LSU. That was the case last year and they were fortunate to win. They were down 7 in the 4th quarter and won the game on a TD with 25 seconds to play.
While the Bulldogs are 7-3 and sitting at No. 16 in the country, they haven't been as good as some people expected, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The defense has been out of this world good. Mississippi State has allowed more than 20 points once all season and that was more a result of the offense putting the defense in a bad spot.
With no shot at winning the conference and a bowl game already locked up, this is the Bulldogs Super Bowl of 2018. I don't know if they have enough offense to pull it off, but I love them to keep it within the number. Take Mississippi State!
|11-10-18||TCU +12.5 v. West Virginia||Top||10-47||Loss||-105||75 h 18 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU +
No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it.
Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight.
The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively.
The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU!
|11-10-18||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||26-6||Loss||-105||14 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +
I'm going to grab the points here with the Spartans at home. Everyone just keeps assuming Ohio State is going to morph into this different team when they haven't played well in quite some time. I think they fooled some people with wins over TCU and Penn State, two games they could have easily lost. They didn't play well at home against Minnesota, got annihilated at Purdue and barely held on to beat a 1-win Nebraska team everyone thought they would destroy (17-point favorite).
Now they are laying points on the road against a Michigan State team that really thrives in the underdog role, especially at home. I know they lost as a home dog to Michigan a few weeks back, but I think the Wolverines are way better than the Buckeyes. These two teams have played 3 common opponents in league play. Michigan State is 3-0 and Ohio State is 2-1. Spartans have allowed 17.0 ppg and Buckeyes 33.7 ppg.
Not to mention the extra motivation that the Spartans are going to have after last year's embarrassing 48-3 loss at Ohio State. I'll take the points as insurance, but I like home dog to win outright. Take Michigan State!
|11-09-18||Celtics v. Jazz -3||Top||115-123||Win||100||14 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -
This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one.
We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns.
They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah!
|11-09-18||Cal-Irvine +6 v. Texas A&M||Top||74-73||Win||100||23 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine +
I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp.
It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg.
I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine!
|11-09-18||NC-Greensboro v. LSU -10.5||91-97||Loss||-110||13 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on LSU -
I got a lot of respect for the UNC-Greensboro program. I know they got 3 starters back from a team that gave Gonzaga a scare in the NCAA Tournament, but I just don't see them being able to keep this within 15 points against a very talented LSU team on the Tigers home floor.
LSU cruised to a 94-63 win at home over SE Louisiana, easily covering as a 20.5-point favorite. it could have been even worse if the Tigers wanted. They called off the dogs on defense after taking a 45-18 lead at the half.
As for the Spartans, they had to rally from a 1st half deficit to beat North Carolina A&T. Winning by a final score of 74-66 as a 16-point favorite. They shot 50% from the field and barely won against an inferior team. That's a bad sign, as they aren't going to be shooting anywhere close to 50% on the road vs LSU. Look for the Tigers to have the cover in the bag early. Take LSU!
|11-09-18||Louisville v. Syracuse -20||23-54||Win||100||58 h 17 m||Show|
4* Friday Night ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -
This one is pretty straight forward. Only one of these teams is interested in playing football in the final month of the season. Louisville has hit rock bottom following the departure of Lamar Jackson and it feels like the team has quit on head coach Bobby Petrinio.
The Cardinals haven't won a game since beating WKU by a mere 3-points as a 23.5-point favorite in the middle of September. They are an atrocious 1-8 ATS this season, as the books just can't give them enough points. A true sign of a team not caring is defense and Louisville is allowing a ridiculous 48.7 ppg and 501.2 ypg in ACC play, where they are getting outscored by more than 27 ppg.
I just think with how potent the Orange are offensively and the defense figuring to play well in front of a rowdy home crowd for a prime time game, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. Don't think for a second Dino Babers and his players haven't forgot about how this series has gone the last two years. Louisville whooped them 62-28 on their home field in 2016 and last year beat by 46. Take Syracuse!
|11-08-18||Bucks +6.5 v. Warriors||134-111||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Bucks
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|11-08-18||Celtics v. Suns +10||116-109||Win||100||14 h 51 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Suns +
Most are going to just assume Boston will come out pissed after losing two straight and easily cover this spread against a Suns team that just lost at home to the Nets by 22 points as a 2-point dog. I just don't think it's going to play out like that.
As good as the Celtics are, a lot of teams struggle with these long road trips, especially when they are going clear across the country like Boston has. I just think they could struggle to bring the energy here against a bad Suns team and two much bigger games on deck at Utah and Portland.
This is also an ideal bounce back spot for Phoenix. Anytime a team gets embarrassed like the Suns did in their last game, they typically bring a little extra next time out. That should be enough for them to hang around and keep this within the number. Take Phoenix!
|11-08-18||Rockets -2.5 v. Thunder||80-98||Loss||-115||11 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Rockets -
Houston has now won 3 straight since their shocking 1-5 start to the season, but it's not from them lighting up the scoreboard like we saw last year. It's been outstanding defense that has got the Rockets back on track.
I think because the offense hasn't looked great, they are still flying a bit under the radar. I certainly think they should be favored on the road over OKC. While the Thunder have won 6 straight (covered 5 in a row), they likely won't have Russell Westbrook.
Even if he plays, I still would like Houston at this line, as it's only a matter of time before the Rockets start connecting on their shots. There's too much talent on that roster for them to continue to shoot 42.4% from the field.
Rockets are 30-18 ATS in their last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 28-14 in their last 42 as a road favorite. Take Houston!
|11-08-18||Siena v. George Washington -6.5||69-61||Loss||-110||9 h 43 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on George Washington -
I like the value here with the Colonials. George Washington was upset in their season opener at home by Stoney Brook. That's not as bad a loss as you might think. As for Siena, they went on the road and lost by just 10 as a 19.5-point dog to Providence.
Those results would have most tempted to take the points with the Saints in this one, but I look for the Colonials to bounce back in a big way at home. Georgia Washington really beat themselves in their game against Stoney Brook. They shot 47.3% from the field to Stony Brook's 38.6%. What killed the Colonials is that they went 16 of 34 (47.1%) from the free throw line and turned it over 17 times. Both areas I expect to see major improvement in tonight. Take George Washington!
|11-07-18||Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4||87-89||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +
The betting public is going to see this line and feel great about backing the Nuggets as a short road favorite against a Grizzlies team that is off back-to-back losses. I see this line as a full on trap by the bookmakers. It tells me the books don't expect Denver to perform well in this spot.
I agree with them. The Nuggets are coming off a 115-107 win over a Boston team a lot of people expect to be in the Finals. They are now 9-1 and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Add in all the Kyrie Irving and Jamal Murray BS that's in the media, and I just don't see them coming out ready to play against a Memphis team that wasn't good last year and so far doesn't look like anything special.
Grizzlies didn't have Mike Conley last year and they do now, so this team is going to be better than last year. It will take a few games for them to get the chemistry back. They like the direction they are going. Part of the reason they are 5-4 is they have played 6 of their first 9 games on the road. They are 3-0 at home with all 3 wins coming by double-digits. Big statement game for them and I think they get the victory. Take Memphis!
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3.5||15-38||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Northern Illinois
|11-07-18||Marshall v. Eastern Kentucky +9||105-77||Loss||-110||9 h 53 m||Show|
3* CBB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Kentucky +
I like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a near double-digit dog at home to Marshall. Many will recall the Thundering Herd upsetting No. 4 seed Wichita State in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament. Head coach Dan D'Antoni runs a similar run-and-gun offense to that of the Houston Rockets, where his younger brother coaches. This will be a very public team and I don't think the books will hesitate to inflate the number on them.
The Colonels decided it was time for a change and fired head coach Dan McHale. They replaced him with A. W. Hamilton, who actually played at Marshall. This is one of those special games, where you put a little more into getting a win, especially with it being the season opener. Eastern Kentucky will need to find some new guys to compliment their star in Nick Mayo, who might be the best player in the Ohio Valley. I believe they will and this could be a surprise team in the OVC. I think they keep it closer than expected and got a legit shot at winning the game outright. Take Eastern Kentucky!
|11-06-18||San Francisco +3 v. UC-Davis||Top||76-42||Win||100||10 h 10 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran +
I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March.
This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings.
UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco!
|11-06-18||IUPU Ft Wayne v. UCLA -12.5||71-96||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UCLA -
The Bruins should have no problem here covering this short humber at home against Purdue Fort Wayne. The Mastadons posted a winning record last year and get back 3x All-Summit 1st Team guard John Konchar, while UCLA never reached their full potential and were knocked out in Dayton in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament.
This year there are no distractions and the Bruins are loaded with talent that's ready to make a run at a Pac-12 title. I fully expect them to win here by 20+ and have this line covered by halftime. Take UCLA!
|11-06-18||North Carolina v. Wofford +11||78-67||Push||0||7 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Wofford +
A lot of people are going to think this line is a mistake. The No. 8 ranked Tar Heels are barely a double-digit favorite on the road against Wofford from the Southern Conference. Those that have done their homework will understand this line and the value that comes with the Terriers.
Wofford brings back all 5 starters from last year's team that went 21-13, including a 79-75 win at North Carolina last year. I get the Tar Heels will be out for revenge, but it means every bit as much to the Terriors to win again. UNC has the chance to be good, but must work in a lot of new pieces and replace one of the ACC's best point guard is in Joel Berry, as well as one of their best all-around players in Theo Pinson.
I expect this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Terrior did in fact pull off the upset. Take Wofford!
|11-05-18||Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys||28-14||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Titans
|11-05-18||Rockets +1 v. Pacers||98-94||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Rockets +
It's been a roller-coaster start to the season for Houston, who no one thought would be sitting under. 500 (3-5) in November. However, it's a big shocker when you consider Harden has missed 3 games and Paul has missed 2. The only two guys to start all 8 games are Capella and Tucker.
No way this team was going to keep playing as poorly as they were. They got their two stars back in the lineup and have won 2 straight. I look for them to make it 3 in a row with a win tonight at Indiana. The Pacers are quality team and are tough to beat at home, but I just think they are a bit outclassed here and in a big letdown spot after defeating Boston 102-101 on a last second 3-pointer by Oladipo.
Rockets are a rock solid 58-38 ATS in all road games over the last 3 seasons, 28-14 ATS in their last 42 as a road favorite and 18-7 ATS in their last 25 as road favorite of 6 points or less. Take Houston!
|11-04-18||Packers +6 v. Patriots||17-31||Loss||-110||80 h 26 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS Vegas INSIDER on Packers +
Great spot here to take a shot on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as a near touchdown underdog. Last week Green Bay was a near double-digit dog at the Rams and they nearly won the game outright, losing by just two points. I don't know why this team isn't getting more love than they are, but there's not many times I won't take this may points with Rodgers.
Green Bay has the numbers of a top team, as they are 5th in the NFL in total offense (412.1 ypg) and 12th in total defense (340.9 ypg). Patriots have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch, which is part of the reason we are getting the number we are. I know it's hard to win in New England this time of year, but I think the Packers need this game more and I like their chances of at worst keeping it within the number.
Packers are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and there's a great system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are a strong passing team (completing 60% or better) and have gained 6.75 or more yards/attempt in each of their last 4 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Green Bay!
|11-04-18||Knicks v. Wizards -6.5||Top||95-108||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards -
Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less.
Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington!
|11-04-18||Bears v. Bills +10||Top||41-9||Loss||-105||86 h 10 m||Show|
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills +
The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog.
Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.
I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them.
Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns +9||37-21||Loss||-105||71 h 36 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Browns +
The Chiefs not only were the talk of the NFL early on, they opened the season a perfect 7-0 ATS before finally failing to cover last week as a 10-point home favorite against the Broncos. KC was in a good spot to cover, as they were up 30-14 in the 2nd half. I don't think that will keep the public from backing the Chiefs and I think there's a ton of value here going against them.
The Browns haven't been as good as they had hoped and their most recent blowout loss at Pittsburgh resulted in head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley getting fired. Most will just think Cleveland has no shot of keeping this close, but I like interim head coach Gregg Williams (defensive coordinator) and you almost always see a team play their best after a big coaching change.
The Browns got the talent defensively, to get pressure on Mahomet and force him into some mistakes. This is also a big letdown spot for the Chiefs, who have to think they can just show up here and win. KC's defense has played well of late at home, but that stop unit has really struggled on the road. Look for Baker Mayfield to have a big game here and maybe even lead the Browns to an upset win. Take Cleveland!
|11-04-18||Steelers v. Ravens -2||23-16||Loss||-103||56 h 54 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE WEEK on Ravens -
I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a field goal at home against the Steelers. I think the fact that Pittsburgh has won 3 straight, while the Ravens have lost 3 of 4 has people thinking we will see a different result than the last time these two teams played (Baltimore won 26-14 at Pittsburgh earlier this season)
Not me. I expect a similar outcome with the Ravens defense keeping the Steelers in check and Baltimore winning here by double-digits. The Ravens let one get away at Cleveland off that big win over Pittsburgh, then suffered a crushing loss at home to the Saints and failed to bounce back not eh road against a good Carolina team. I don't think Baltimore has regressed at all and they will take care of business at home.
History suggest Pittsburgh will struggle against the number after their recent success. The Steelers are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5. Pittsburgh is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Ravens come in having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss and 8-3 in their last 11 after losing their previous game by more than 14 points. Take Baltimore!
|11-04-18||Utah State v. Hawaii +18||56-17||Loss||-109||2 h 32 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Hawaii
|11-03-18||Jazz v. Nuggets -4||88-103||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets -
I love the value here with Denver as a short home favorite against the Jazz tonight. The Nuggets have been one of the big surprises early on, as they have opened up 7-1 and are a perfect 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by 12.2 ppg.
Utah is a solid team, but I just don't think they have the good to keep this one close with how well Denver is playing. Especially given that the Jazz are playing on no rest after suiting up last night at home against the Grizzlies. It's also their 3rd game overall in the last 4 days. A situation in which the Jazz have gone a mere 16-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Utah is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Denver!
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -23.5||3-45||Win||100||59 h 55 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Money PLAY OF THE DAY Mississippi State -
I think a lot of people will consider grabbing the points with Louisiana Tech, as they are going to feel like this is a big trap game for the Bulldogs. Technically speaking it is, as Mississippi State is off the big home win over Texas A&M and has a game at Alabama on deck next Saturday. I just don't think a less than 100% Bulldogs team can win here by at least 4 touchdowns.
A lot of people will point to how well La Tech played in their near upset win over LSU earlier this season, but that's the exact reason why I don't think Mississippi State is going to take this team lightly. Keep in mind LSU was up 24-0 midway thru the 3rd quarter before taking their foot completely off the gas.
I also think the fact that the Bulldogs had lost 3 of their previous 4 before beating Texas A&M, is another reason why they will show up here. It's fun beating up on lessor competition, especially when things aren't going your way. I think the offense is desperate to have one of those breakout games where they score 50+ points and that defense front should make life miserable for the visiting Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!
|11-03-18||Utah v. Arizona State +7.5||20-38||Win||100||81 h 7 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +
Utah is simply getting way too much love right now. The Utes have won and covered 4 straight. The books have taken notice and really inflated this line, as there's no way Utah should be laying over a touchdown on the road to Arizona State.
The Sun Devils have been hit or miss, but they come into this one off a 3-point win at USC as a 3-point dog. They are just 2-4 in their last 6 games, but all 4 losses have come by a touchdown or less. It's also been a brutal stretch, as they have hosted Michigan State and Stanford, while playing no the road against the likes of San Diego St, Washington, Colorado and USC.
I like this Utah team, but I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on this team. The win at Stanford was impressive, but they also caught the Cardinal off back-to-back massive road games against Oregon and Notre Dame. The other 3 wins were at home against Arizona and USC and at UCLA. This team lost by 14 at Washington, barely beat Northern Illinois on the road and lost at Washington State.
I think Arizona State has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Sun Devils are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against strong defensive teams like Utah, who allow 4.5 or less yards/play and have won these games outright by an average score of 31-24. Take Arizona State!
|11-03-18||Kansas State +8.5 v. TCU||13-14||Win||115||22 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas State +
I just think there's way too much wrong with this TCU team for them to be laying over a touchdown to anyone in the Big 12. I get Kansas State isn't that good, but the Horned Frogs just lost to Kansas. The only way a Gary Patterson coached team loses to a team like Kansas, is the players have given up on themselves and each other.
It's not easy for these kids to keep fighting when things go so badly, especially when the expectations are so high coming into the year. TCU played in the Big 12 title last year and they were thinking conference title. They go into November not even remotely in the conversation. They haven't covered since Sept. 7th at SMU. Now is not the time to play the due factor with this team. They might win, but I'm confident it will be by 7 or less if they do. Take Kansas State!
|11-03-18||UL-Lafayette +10 v. Troy||16-26||Push||0||22 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas Line MISTAKE on Lafayette +
Great value here with the Ragin' Cajuns as a double-digit dog against the Trojans. Lafayette has been playing well. They have won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming on the road against App State by a final of just 27-17.
They more than showed they could hang with the top tier talent in this league. Keep in mind with their 4-4 overall record. They played Alabama and Mississippi State on the road and happened to lose the game in between those two SEC powers to Costal Carolina (by only 2).
Troy's a good team, but this is too many points for them to be laying in this spot. While this game could have a big impact on the Sun Belt race, it's going to be hard for Troy to not look ahead to next week's showdown at Georgia Southern. A game they have to feel like they have to win to have any real shot at the East Division title.
I think this is going to be a very competitive game that's decided late. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Ragin' Cajuns won here outright. Take Lafayette!
|11-03-18||Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe +7.5||25-44||Win||100||23 h 31 m||Show|
3* Group of 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on UL-Monroe +
Hard to not like the value here with the Warhawks getting over a touchdown at home against the Eagles. The public doesn't follow the Sun Belt closely, but most average fans are aware of the fact that Georgia Southern knocked off then No. 25 Appalachian State last week. The Eagles didn't just win, they dominated 34-14 as a 11-point dog.
I think people have a hard time not betting teams off a big upset win, especially at what to them looks like a favorable price. Not to mention the Eagles have gone 7-1 ATS on the season. The books set a bad line last week on Georgia Southern and have made up for it here.
This is a big sandwich game for Georgia Southern, not only are they off the big win over App State, but they have a massive game on deck against Troy that they have to win. A loss here and a win over Troy they still control their own destiny for the East title and spot in the Sun Belt title game. I think the Warhawks win this one outright. Take ULM +7.5!
|11-03-18||Oklahoma State v. Baylor +7||31-35||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor +
I think this is the prime spot to fade Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are fresh off that upset win at home against Texas. They put everything they had into that game. Now they are a touchdown favorite on the road to a Baylor team that was just annihilated by West Virginia last week 58-14. A game a lot of people watched, with it being a weekday matchup.
I think those two outcomes have created amazing value on the Bears, who I think are going to win this game outright. Baylor is much-improved over last year and just a couple weeks ago they nearly knocked off Texas on the road. As for Oklahoma State, this team has disappointed more than it's flashed what we saw against the Longhorns. The week before they got rolled 31-12 at Kansas State and have lost at home to ISU and Texas Tech.
I like Baylor head coach Matt Rhule and believe it's going to be just another year or two before he's got this team competing at the top of this conference. I'm willing to bet he has his team fired up after that ugly performance and I just don't see the Cowboys being able to match that intensity on the road, especially with a certain in-state rival on deck named Oklahoma. Take Baylor!
|11-03-18||Rutgers v. Wisconsin -28.5||Top||17-31||Loss||-110||48 h 16 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin -
I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it.
Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener.
I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland.
Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-18||Nebraska +18 v. Ohio State||31-36||Win||100||48 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Power 5 Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +
I think the perception here is that Ohio State is going to return from their bye week and take out all their frustration from that ugly loss at Purdue on Nebraska. I would expect Ohio State to win this game, but I don't see them pulling away by more than 3 scores.
I know it was a struggle for Nebraska to win a game, but they have really played well in several games. Prior to getting that elusive first win over Minnesota, they blew a late lead in a 34-31 loss at Northwestern and they covered as 18.5-point dogs in a loss at Wisconsin.
The Cornhuskers are also coming out of their bye and while this is a must-win for Ohio State if they want to have a realistic shot of winning the Big Ten East and making the playoffs, I think it will be hard for them to take this Nebraska team seriously and not look ahead just a little to next week's game at Michigan State.
Keep in mind it wasn't just one bad game at Purdue. Ohio State didn't look all that great in their previous game at home against Minnesota, winning by a final score of 30-14 as a 29-point favorite. They haven't covered a game since beating Tulane 49-6 back in late September.
Over the last 5 seasons, home teams that lost by 28 or more points to the spread in their previous game are a mere 6-28 (18%) ATS in weeks 10 through 13. Take Nebraska!
|11-03-18||South Carolina v. Ole Miss +1||48-44||Loss||-100||20 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss
I like the value here with Ole Miss as a home dog to the Gamecocks. I know it's basically a pick'em but don't think for a second the Rebels don't know who is favored to win. I just think Ole Miss is better than they get credit for and should be at least a field goal favorite here against South Carolina.
The Gamecocks barely won at home last week against Tennessee and really haven't lived up to their expectations. They came into this season thinking SEC East title. That's pretty much out the window and I think for them it's now all about the two big road games to end the season with Florida and Clemson. The Gators are up next week and I think South Carolina has a hard time matching the intensity of the Rebels.
Fading the Gamecocks off a win has been very profitable. South Carolina is 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Look for them to make it 0-6 after Saturday. Take Ole Miss!
|11-03-18||Syracuse -4.5 v. Wake Forest||41-24||Win||100||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS SMASH on Syracuse -
I think we are getting a great price here to back Syracuse. This has already been a special season for the Orange. They have secured their first bowl bid since 2013 and are ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since 2001.
They are 6-2 and have to be thinking double-digit wins right now. I just don't see them laying an egg here against Wake Forest and I feel like that's the only way they don't win by at least a touchdown. Don't be fooled by the Demon Deacons 56-35 win at Louisville last week. The Cardinals are trash and playing like it. This is still the same team that lost 63-3 at home to Clemson, lost by 21 to an awful FSU team and lost by double-digits at home to BC.
The defense has been a major problem for Wake and will be picked apart by Eric Dungey and this Orange offense that has put up 91 in their last 2 games. Demon Deacons won't be able to keep pace. Take Syracuse!
|11-03-18||Michigan State v. Maryland +3||24-3||Loss||-100||2 h 52 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Maryland
|11-02-18||Raptors v. Suns +11||107-98||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Suns
|11-02-18||Grizzlies v. Jazz -7.5||110-100||Loss||-105||3 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Jazz
|11-02-18||Rockets -3 v. Nets||119-111||Win||100||13 h 13 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -
I don't think anyone saw Houston sitting at 1-5 thru their first 6 games. I know they just lost 104-85 at home to the Blazers and aren't expected to have James Harden back until tomorrow's showdown with the Bulls, but I just can't pass up on the Rockets at this price against the Nets.
Brooklyn's not a good team. They are coming off a 1-point win at home against the Pistons, but shot just 42.6% from the field. Their other two victories are against the Knicks and Cavs. Houston simply can't continue to shoot as poorly as they have. They were 31 of 96 (32.3%) from the field against the Blazers.
Big time bounce back spot for the Rockets off that embarrassing performance and the Nets are just the team to get them back on track. Houston is a solid 27-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off a blowout loss by 15 or more. Take Houston!
|11-02-18||Toronto +6.5 v. Ottawa||9-24||Loss||-100||13 h 7 m||Show|
3* CFL Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +
Great spot here to grab Toronto as a near touchdown dog against the Redblacks. This line is based a lot on the records of these two teams. The Argonauts are tied with Montreal for the worst record in the league at 4-13, while Ottawa is sitting on top the East standings at 10-7.
The key here being that the Redblacks have already secured the East division title, so there's really no incentive to win here. A lot of the starters (best players) will be rested and kept out to avoid injury. I just think anytime you go into a game without a real sense of urgency, it's hard to win and I have to think the Argonauts would like to end this forgettable season on a high note. Either way, all we need is for them to keep it close. Take Toronto!
|11-01-18||Blackhawks v. Oilers -1.5||0-4||Win||195||11 h 0 m||Show|
3* NHL Puck Line MASSACRE on Oilers -
I'm going to take the Oilers to not only secure a win at home over the Blackhawks, but I got them on the -1.5 puck line for an even bigger payout.
Chicago is struggling right now. The Blackhawks have lost 3 straight and have been outscored 13-6 during this stretch. Edmonton on the other hand has won 6 of their last 9, which includes a win at Chicago last week. Blackhawks have really struggled defensively and the Oilers have scored 19 goals in their last 5 games. Look for them to get out to an early lead and cost to a win here by at least 2 goals. Take Edmonton -1.5!
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers -3||3-34||Win||105||51 h 53 m||Show|
4* Raiders/49ers NFC West GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers -
San Francisco should have no problem here cashing in a win against the Raiders. This has been a complete disaster of a first season for Oakland under new head coach Jon Gruden. It started with the team trading away not just their best defensive player, but one of the best the NFL has to offer in Khalil Mack. The defense clearly misses him, as Oakland enters tonight's game giving up 31.1 points/game.
Prior to last week's game against the Colts they traded star wide out Amari Cooper to Dallas. While I think a lot of the players already threw in the white towel on this season, I think that was the icing on the cake. Raiders responded just as you would expect and lost 42-28 at home to the Colts.
I know this is the battle of the bay and all that, but that's not really a thing when you have a matchup of two 1-win teams. I'm sure Oakland will show up against some of the top teams later on, but I don't think they care about this game at all. Most players already want nothing to do with playing on the road in these Thursday game on short rest.
With or without C.J. Beathard at quarterback, I think the 49ers win here without much problem, as this team at least still has some fight in them. Note that SF backup quarterback Nick Mullens did flash some nice potential in the preseason and has a great offensive mind calling the plays. Take San Francisco!
|11-01-18||Temple +12 v. Central Florida||40-52||Push||0||5 h 12 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Temple
|10-31-18||Ball State +18 v. Toledo||13-45||Loss||-100||29 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Ball State +
I like the value here with the Cardinals as a 3-score underdog against the Rockets. Ball State is getting zero respect here from the books and a big reason for that is the injury to starting quarterback Riley Neal, who will not play in this one. That's a big loss for Ball State, but they got a capable backup in Drew Plitt, who has played in 4 games and flashed some potential.
I could see why you would hesitate to take the Cardinals if Toledo featured a great defense, but the Rockets have been pretty bad on that side of the ball this year. Toledo is 98th in the country against the run (186.4 ypg) and 112th against the pass (273.4 ypg). Not only should Ball State be able to score early and often, but if they do struggle, the backdoor figures to be wide open for a late cover.
I also think the injury to Neal could make it difficult for Toledo to give this Cardinals team their full attention. They have to feel like all they have to do is show up to get the win and making it even harder to give Ball State their full attention is a massive game on deck against Northern Illinois, which they need to win to have any shot at defending their MAC West title.
Cardinals have had a lot of success against the number at the Glass Bowl, as they have covered 7 of their last 10 visits to Toledo. The Rockets are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a game where they scored 40+ points. Take Ball State!
|10-30-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo||42-51||Loss||-104||19 h 24 m||Show|
4* Miami/Buffalo MAC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami +
Buffalo is getting way to much respect here at home against a good Miami team. Don't be fooled by the RedHawks 3-5 record. They went 0-4 in non-conference play, losing to the likes of Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only loss inside conference play is a mere 1-point defeat at home to Western Michigan.
This team has been extremely undervalued since their 0-3 start and since losing their first 3, they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. The thing is Buffalo has been even better. The Bulls are 7-1 overall and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7. The public is fully on board with this team and to them it's not asking a lot to win by at least a touchdown.
I not only think the Bulls will struggle to cover this number, but I could easily see the RedHawks winning this game outright. These two teams have played two common opponents and Miami has looked better in each. The RedHawks went on the road and beat Akron 41-17, Buffalo only beat them 24-6 at home. Miami lost in overtime at Army 31-30 and the Bulls lost at home to the Black Knights 42-13.
I just think these are two very evenly matched teams, much more so than this spread would suggest. RedHawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Miami!
|10-30-18||Pistons +9.5 v. Celtics||105-108||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons +
Love this price and spot with Detroit in a big time revenge game against the Celtics. These two teams just played in Detroit on Saturday, which Boston won by 20 (109-89) as a slim 3.5-point road favorite. Now the Celtics are a near double-digit favorite at home in a game that is going to mean a lot more to the Pistons than it is Boston.
Detroit simply had an off night shooting against the Celtics on Saturday. They went just 33 of 89 (37.1%) from the field. Easily their worst shooting performance of the season. They are going to have a much better idea of what Boston is trying to do to them defensively and let's not forget the Pistons were 4-0 before that loss.
Detroit is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. Celtics on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Detroit!
|10-30-18||Hawks +5 v. Cavs||114-136||Loss||-101||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Hawks +
Atlanta has already went into Cleveland and had their way with the Cavs 133-111 this season. While the Hawks will be playing on no rest, there's too much value here with Atlanta to pass up. The Cavaliers are a complete mess. They have already fired their head coach and now Kevin Love is out with a foot injury.
Cleveland plays no defense, as opponents are shooting 51.2% from the field and 42.2% from long-distance. Offensively they have been dreadful from behind the 3-point line and it's not going to get any better with Love out. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Hawks won by double-digits in Cleveland again. Take Atlanta!
|10-29-18||Patriots v. Bills +14||Top||25-6||Loss||-105||124 h 25 m||Show|
5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills +
We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it.
There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago.
The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been.
I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo!
|10-29-18||Lakers +1 v. Wolves||120-124||Loss||-109||9 h 21 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Lakers +
I've really liked what I have seen out of this Lakers team and while they come in with a 2-4 record, they could easily be 4-2 and have a much different perception than we see now. With Ingram back from his suspension and the way the LA offense has clicked early, I think they are going to score at will here against the dysfunctional Timberwolves.
The Jimmy Butler drama has been a massive distraction for everyone involved in Minnesota. The sooner they make a move and move past this thing the better, but for now they are a team I will look to fade. The Timberwolves just lost at home to the bucks by a final score of 125-95. That really tells you how out of sync this team is. Not only are they not playing defense, the shots aren't falling on offense. Take Los Angeles!
|10-29-18||Kings v. Heat -8||Top||123-113||Loss||-108||9 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat -
Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog.
I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat.
That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami!
|10-28-18||Redskins v. Giants +1||20-13||Loss||-105||76 h 23 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE WEEK on Giants +
The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Giants right now. I'm showing close to 70% of the tickets are coming in on the Redskins and anytime you have around 70% or more on one side of an NFL game, you almost always want to be on the other side.
While the losses keep piling up, the Giants have shown some flashes of late that they are on the right track. They only lost by 3 points at Atlanta last time out, which was their fourth loss this season by 7 or less. Washington is a decent team, but they got no business being a road favorite against a division rival. The last time the Redskins played on the road they got annihilated by the Saints 43-19.
Giants have gone a solid 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS with Eli Manning as the starter at home against Washington. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of the Redskins. Favorites off an upset win as a division home dog, who have a winning record and are playing a team with a losing record are a mere 5-23 (18%) ATS since 1983. Take New York!
|10-28-18||Seahawks +3 v. Lions||28-14||Win||100||76 h 22 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks
I like the value here with Seattle getting points against the Lions. The Seahawks have quietly won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to the Rams, where they should have won outright. A lot of people just threw this team under the bus after their 0-2 start and it's got them way undervalued here.
Detroit on the other hand is getting way too much respect right now. The Lions have won 3 of 4 and have covered 5 in a row. I'm just not all that impressed with this team and with big division road games on deck against Minnesota and Chicago, I think they have a hard time getting up for this one.
Not only do I think Seattle is the better team, but the Seahawks have a massive edge in rest coming off of their bye week. Seattle has covered 12 of their last 16 vs strong offensive teams like the Lions, who averaged 375 or more yards/game. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after rushing for 150 or more yards in 2 straight games. Lions are just 7-19-2 in their last 28 off a game where they scored 30 or more and 4-13 ATS off a double-digit road win. Take Seattle!
|10-28-18||Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5||Top||24-18||Loss||-115||131 h 53 m||Show|
5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags +
I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium.
Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here."
Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6.
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville!
|10-27-18||Magic v. Bucks -8.5||Top||91-113||Win||100||17 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks -
Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night.
I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest.
Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee!
|10-27-18||Tennessee +8 v. South Carolina||24-27||Win||105||44 h 54 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Tennessee +
I really like this spot with the Volunteers getting more than a touchdown against South Carolina. Last time out Tennessee got annihilated by Alabama 58-21, failing to cover as a massive 29-point dog. The thing is, prior to that we saw this team upset Auburn 30-24 on the road in easily the biggest win for first year head coach Jeremy Pruitt.
I just think that this team really gained a lot of confidence from that win over Auburn and will be eager to get back on the field after getting annihilated by the Crimson Tide. Keep in mind that Tennessee has played a brutal schedule. Five of their first seven opponents have been West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Auburn and Alabama.
South Carolina is a quality team, but I think they are more in the class of like Auburn than they are the elite SEC teams, such as LSU, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. The Vols aren't just capable of keeping it close enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.
They have covered 30 of their last 45 road games in the month of October and are an impressive 32-16 in their last 48 off a SU loss and 16-5 in their last 21 road games off a conference loss by 10 or more. Take Tennessee!
|10-27-18||UNLV v. San Jose State -2.5||37-50||Win||100||56 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on San Jose State -
The simple fact that San Jose State is favored to win this game is really all you need to know to why this is the right side. The Spartans haven't won a game (0-7), yet are laying points to a UNLV team that has a couple of wins under their resume.
I just think this is the ideal spot to jump on San Jose State. This team is going to put everything they have into winning this game, as it's arguably their last realistic shot at win this season. They only have 4 more to play and 3 of those are on the road and the lone home game is against Fresno State.
UNLV is definitely a team they can not just beat, but win going away against. The Rebels only two wins are against UTEP, who might be the worst FBS program in the country and FCS foe Prairie View. San Jose State has also been close in several games, as 3 of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less and they just lost by a mere 3-points at San Diego State as a 25-point dog.
Rebels are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 4-15 in their last 19 on the road when the team they are playing has won fewer than 25% of their games, losing outright by more than 10 points/game. Take San Jose State!
|10-27-18||Kentucky +7.5 v. Missouri||15-14||Win||100||55 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Kentucky has failed to cover their last two games and were a big disappointment to a lot of people in last week's mere 14-7 win over Vanderbilt at home. I think it has them way undervalued here against a Missouri team that I feel lis getting way too much respect.
The Tigers come in off an impressive 65-33 win over Memphis, but it just feels like more of the same, where Missouri rolls the teams it's suppose to beat and struggles against the better opponents they play. We saw this team manage just 10 points the previous week against Alabama and this Kentucky defense is no joke.
The Wildcats are 12th in the country, giving up just 302 ypg. They are 17th against the run, giving up just 112 ypg and are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams that average 4.9. Everyone thinks of Missouri as this pass-happy team, but they are averaging 42 rush attempts and 200 yards/game on the ground. When they struggle to run the football, the offense struggles to score.
Not only do I think Kentucky can slow down the Tigers offense, but this Missouri defense is one that a limited Wildcats offense can have success against. Tigers rank 92nd in the country, giving up 419 ypg. The passing game is the biggest weakness for Kentucky, but they should have success thru the air agains this Missouri secondary, which ranks 122nd, allowing 287.4 ypg.
Wildcats not only have the ability to keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Kentucky!
|10-27-18||Arizona State v. USC -3.5||38-35||Loss||-105||38 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on USC -
I think we are getting a great price here on USC as a small home favorite against the Sun Devils. The Trojans have a disappointing 4-3 record based on their standards, but it's really not a surprise given how young they are on the offensive side of the ball and the schedule they have had to play.
USC's 3 losses have all come on the road against teams who are currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Texas (6), Stanford (24) and Utah (23). They are a perfect 3-0 at home, which includes impressive wins over Colorado and Washington State.
This Arizona State team is better than I think people expected in year one under Herm Edwards, but they have lost 4 of their last 5 and the offense continues to struggle to produce at a high enough level to win games against good teams. They only managed 13-points at home last time out in a loss to Stanford and have scored 21 or fewer in 5 of their last 6.
The big concern here with USC is that starting quarterback J.T. Daniels is now doubtful to play because of a concussion. I think that's definitely helping the number here, but I don't think the injury really makes a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Jack Sears will start if Daniels can't go and while he's not attempted a pass at the college level, he was highly touted out of high school and has been with the program for two years. I think the offense will be able to score more than enough to win this by at least a touchdown. Take USC!
|10-27-18||Iowa v. Penn State -5.5||24-30||Win||100||25 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -
The Nittany Lions should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown at home against Iowa. Penn State's hopes of making the 4-team playoff and winning the Big Ten East are likely shot, but I don't see this team throwing in the towel the rest of the way.
I think their big flat spot was last week at Indiana. They definitely didn't play their best, but still managed to sneak out a 33-28 road win. I think we see a much more focused Nittany Lions team when they host nationally ranked Iowa. Keep in mind they are still looking for their first win at home in Big Ten play, which is definitely a big motivator here.
Iowa has looked impressive in their 6-1 start, but the schedule has definitely been favorable for the Hawkeyes. They have only played 2 road games and those were against Minnesota and Indiana. They lost their big step up game at home against Wisconsin and I just don't think the offense will be able to keep pace with Trace McSorely and the Nittany Lions attack.
Note that two years ago, Iowa was a mere 6-point dog at Penn State and got annihilated 41-14. I don't think it will be that big of a blowout, but all we need is for them to win by 6. Nittany Lions are 16-1 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference win. Take Penn State!
|10-27-18||Clemson v. Florida State +17||59-10||Loss||-110||68 h 12 m||Show|
4* Clemson/Florida St ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +
Clemson comes in off that impressive 41-7 win at home over previously undefeated NC State, easily covering as a 18.5-point favorite. I think that result has the Tigers way overvalued here against their rivals from the Atlantic, especially on the road.
Florida State has been one of the most disappointing teams of 2018, but there's no question that the Seminoles have some of the best talent in the country. We saw them nearly upset Miami on the road a couple weeks back and I think they are going to give Clemson all they can handle, in what to them has to feel like their Super Bowl.
The Tigers have won the last 3, but the largest margin of victory was 17 in last year's matchup. However, that was a much closer game than the final score indicates, as Clemson only led 17-14 in the 4th quarter.
Note that the Tigers are just 14-29 ATS when they go into a game off 3 or more consecutive conference wins, as the books only inflate the numbers more off a victory.
We also find a strong system in play, as road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are outgaining opponents by 125+ yards/game are just 17-48 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off back-to-back games where they had 525 or more total yards. Take Florida State!
|10-26-18||Wyoming v. Colorado State -2||Top||34-21||Loss||-105||86 h 5 m||Show|
5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State -
Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August.
They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense.
Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games.
The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State!
|10-26-18||Indiana v. Minnesota +3||31-38||Win||100||34 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +
Love the value here with the Golden Gophers as a home dog against Indiana. I'lll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect Minnesota to win this game outright.
We are seeing the Hoosiers get way too much respect from their near upset of Penn State this past Saturday. That was the ultimate get up spot for Indiana at home against a ranked opponent, while I think the Nittany Lions were still reeling a bit from back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, which all but knocked them out of the playoff picture. Indiana head coach Tom Allen said it best, "Just a gut-wrenching loss four our team today. I thought our kids played their hearts out."
This is a massive letdown spot for the Hoosiers and they will be going up against a hungry Gophers team that just lost their 4th straight. The thing is, 3 of those came on the road and the other was a home game against a good Iowa team. I like head coach P.J. Fleck and I'm confident he will have Minnesota ready to play at home in prime time.
Hoosiers not a great team to back in this spot, as they have failed to cover 7 of their last 8 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the spread. I wouldn't be shocked at all of the Gophers won this game going away. Take Minnesota!
|10-24-18||Lakers v. Suns +5.5||131-113||Loss||-110||6 h 16 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Suns
|10-24-18||Hornets v. Bulls +4||110-112||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
4* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Bulls +
The public will be all over Charlotte here with the Hornets laying a short number against a Bulls team that is 0-3 and just released that starting point guard Kris Dunn is out 4-6 weeks. While that injury hurts, he didn't play in either of the first two, including a 2-point loss at home to the Pistons.
They still got a decent 1-2 punch with Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker. LaVine has been outstanding early, as he comes in averaging 32.3 ppg. Chicago is desperate for a win here and I think they get it. Charlotte just lost by 21-points at Toronto and I think they are wearing down from a brutal scheduling start to their season. After opening at home against the Bucks, they are getting ready to play their 4th straight on the road, all in a span of just 6 days.
With a home game against these same Bulls on deck, I think it makes it that much harder for the Hornets to get up for this game. It's also worth noting they haven't responded well to blowout losses in the past. They are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 off a loss by more than 10 points. Take Chicago!
|10-23-18||Clippers +7 v. Pelicans||109-116||Push||0||6 h 18 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Clippers
|10-22-18||Suns +13 v. Warriors||103-123||Loss||-105||14 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA Pacific Division PLAY OF THE WEEK on Suns +
Great price and spot to jump on Phoenix as a big double-digit dog against the Warriors. No question we are seeing inflated lines on Golden State to start the year and the Warriors have opened up 0-3 ATS.
Not only is Golden State being asked to lay more than they should, but this is also a team that isn't really all that concerned with he regular-season, especially this early on. The only thing that matters to the Warriors is getting that 3-peat. They lost outright last night at Denver, scoring just 98 points. Most will assume they bounce back here against a bad Suns team, but they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd overall in the last 4 nights. Not to mention Phoenix, along with every other team, is going to give Golden State their very best.
Look for the Suns to keep this closer than expected. Note they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Phoenix!
|10-21-18||Texans v. Jaguars -4.5||Top||20-7||Loss||-105||125 h 33 m||Show|
5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags -
This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday.
The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston.
I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team.
I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville!
|10-21-18||Patriots v. Bears +3.5||38-31||Loss||-110||101 h 2 m||Show|
4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bears +
The books are begging the public to take the Patriots here as a short road favorite, but my money is on the Bears to cover the number at home, as I look for Chicago to win this game outright. New England comes in off that impressive 43-40 shootout win at home over the Chiefs and have won 3 straight overall, but those last 3 have all come against soft defensive teams in Miami, Indy and KC.
Chicago isn't just a good defensive team, they are one of the best in the NFL. The Bears are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.2 ppg and 10th in total defense, allowing a mere 344 yards/game. We saw the Tom Brady and the Patriots offense really struggle against a physical Jaguars defense on the road earlier this season. With Gronk not going to be available, I think it's going to be really hard on New England to move the ball.
While the Bears offense has been limited at times, they are coming off two really strong performances. They had 48 points and nearly 500 total yards of offense at home agains the Bucs and 28 points and 467 yards at Miami last week. Patriots defense has plenty of holes for Trubisky and that Bears offense to exploit, as NE is allowing 28.5 ppg and 447 ypg on the road this season.
Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take Chicago!
|10-20-18||Hornets +5 v. Heat||Top||113-112||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets +
I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance.
Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less.
Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte!
|10-20-18||Oregon v. Washington State -1.5||Top||20-34||Win||100||105 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State -
Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand.
Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game.
Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack.
Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State!
|10-20-18||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -11.5||7-14||Loss||-110||33 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAF SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -
I think we are getting a great price here on the Wildcats laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Commodores. Vandy was able to put up a decent fight last week at home against Florida, but I think that was more of a result of the Gators not being 100% invested from the start.
Definitely a tough spot for Florida off that huge home win over LSU and knowing they had their bye week on deck before the massive showdown with Georgia. The Gators let the Commodores get out to a 21-3 lead and from that point on they were a different team and outscored Vanderbilt 34-6 and wound up outgaining them 576 to 336.
I don't see Kentucky sleep-walking into this one. The Wildcats are coming off a bye and my bet is this team can't wait to get back on the field after suffering their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in overtime. I just think that Kentucky's defense will be able to completely shutdown the Commodores offense and Benny Snell and that Wildcats offense will be able to have their way, as Vanderbilt comes in ranked 94th in the country against the run, giving up 183.3 ypg. This one has blowout written all over it. Take Kentucky!
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