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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-20-19||Mavs +8.5 v. 76ers||117-98||Win||100||14 h 1 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Mavs +8½ -109
I like the value here with the Mavs as a near double-digit dog against the 76ers. Luka Doncic did travel with the team to Philadelphia, but he's unlikely to play. However, Dallas has shown they are more than capable of competing against the top teams without him. In the two games he's missed they have won at Milwaukee and lost by just 6 to the Celtics.
76ers just lost at home to the Heat as a 9-point favorite and have been one of the more overvalued teams over the last month and a half. Going back to Nov. 10 Philadelphia is 6-11-3 ATS. In comparison, Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
Mavs are 12-3-2 ATS last 17 off a straight up loss and are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!
|12-20-19||Knicks +10.5 v. Heat||114-129||Loss||-115||10 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Knicks +10½ -115
New York is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Heat. Knicks have been a money maker since they fired head coach David Fizdale. They are 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS since he was let go. That includes 3 straight covers on the road against the Warriors, Kings and Nuggets.
Winning at Miami won't be easy, but I like their chances of keeping this within 10-points. Heat could definitely struggle to get up for this game, as they are off a huge road win against the 76ers, which concluded a 3-game road trip.
Heat also got off to that great start and as a result the books are starting to overprice them, especially as a favorite. Miami is just 1-4 ATS last 10 when laying points. Take New York!
|12-20-19||Pistons v. Celtics -7||Top||93-114||Win||100||20 h 39 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -7 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Boston at home against the Pistons. Celtics should have no problem winning here by double-digits against a struggling Detroit team that will not only be without Blake Griffin, but also Luke Kennard and Christian Wood.
Boston won't have Gordon Hayward but at this point they are accustomed to not having him. They also don't need him to put away this Pistons team. Celtics are also well rested playing just their 2nd game in the last 7 days and coming off a big momentum building win at Dallas where they rallied in the 2nd half for a 109-103 win.
Pistons have gone 3-14-1 ATS last 18 vs a team with a winning record, 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Celtics are 10-1 at home) and 3-8 ATS last 11 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Boston!
|12-20-19||Kent State v. Utah State -6.5||Top||51-41||Loss||-110||180 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Kent St FRISCO BOWL Top Play on Utah State -6½ -110
Easy play here for me on the Aggies. I don't get the line move at all as I thought the books had it priced right when they opened Utah State at -8.5. There's simply too much value here now with them under the key number of 7.
I just think Jordan Love announcing he was leaving early to go pro and then some key guys getting accused of smoking pot had people leaning Kent State in this game. Thing is, Love is playing and those allegations appear to be false, at least from what head coach Gary Anderson is saying.
Love is going to want to show out here to build up his draft stock. I also think the Utah State players will be motivated that much more after hearing the coach had their back. Love should have a field day in this one, as the Golden Flashes are awful defensively. They give up 471.7 ypg and allow 34.6 ppg away from home. They also are allowing opposing QB's to complete 69% of their attempts for 249 ypg and 8.4 yards/ pass attempt.
Also, Kent State went 6-6 and their only decent win was against Buffalo and they trailed 27-6 in the 4th quarter of a crazy 30-27 win. Golden Flashes are a great story as they had quite the turnaround, but they are outclassed in this one. Take Utah State!
|12-19-19||Portland State +5.5 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||76-66||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Small Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Portland State +5½ -111
Easy play here on the Vikings getting points against the Lions. I actually think Portland State is going to win this game outright, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. Loyola-Marymount has failed to cover their last two, including a mere 3-point win in their last home game against Prairie View A&M as a similarly priced 6-point favorite.
The Lions just aren't a team to be trusted to lay points. They don't play great defense and struggle to take care of the basketball. That could haunt them here against Portland State, which has had some success turning over the opposition. Vikings also are also a great offensive rebounding team and those second chances should pay off in this matchup.
Vikings are 15-6 ATS last 21 non-conference road games, while the Lions are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 1-9 ATS last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Portland State!
|12-19-19||Nets v. Spurs -2.5||Top||105-118||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on Spurs -2½ -106
I absolutely love the value here with the Spurs at basically a pick'em at home against the Nets. This hasn't been anywhere close to the kind of start to the season that most expected for San Antonio and their latest 107-109 loss to Houston, where they blew a 25-point lead, speaks to the season they are having.
With that said, I do feel like there's some positives with building up a 25-point lead on the road against the Rockets. It could be a sign of them turning the corner. Had they won that would have been 4 out of their last 5.
With a full 2 days off before this game I think we get a big effort here from the Spurs. As for the Nets, they continue to play well without Kyrie, but a lot of that success has come against bad teams. This is also not an ideal scheduling spot playing on the road for the 3rd time in the last 6 days.
Spurs are 15-5 ATS last 20 games at home in the month of December and 21-9 ATS last 30 at home with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio!
|12-19-19||Jazz -6 v. Hawks||111-106||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jazz -6 -109
The Jazz are definitely worth a look here at Atlanta tonight. Utah is just 5-8 away from home and I think that poor road record has them a bit undervalued in this one. Jazz have won 3 straight and will be motivated here to get their 3-game road trip started off with a win.
What I love is they don't even need to play their best to cover this number against the Hawks. Atlanta has the second worst record in the league at 6-22 and are just 2-16 over their last 22 games. Last time out the Hawks fell by 23 on the road to an awful Knicks team, marking their 6th double-digit setback in their last 7 losses.
Jazz have faired well against teams like Atlanta away from home, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 on the road against bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. They are also 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road with a total of 220 or more and 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after 2 or more consecutive home wins. Take Utah!
|12-18-19||Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs||Top||109-103||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics -1½ -109
I absolutely love the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at Dallas. The Mavs shocked just about everyone in their last game, as they snapped the Bucks 18-game winning streak in Milwaukee without one of the best players in the league in Luka Doncic. Dallas won the game 120-116 as a 10-point dog.
Not to take anything away from that win, but you have to think some of that was Milwaukee not giving the Mavs the respect they deserved. They had to think they could just coast and beat Dallas without Doncic. On the flip side the Mavs were highly motivated to show they can win without their star.
Boston isn't going to make the same mistake here. In fact, the Celtics should be 100% locked in after losing their last two and being fully rested after having the last 5 days off. Boston is 8-2 ATS last 10 times they have played on 4 or more days of rest and are 11-2 ATS on the season vs a team with a winning record. Take Boston!
|12-18-19||VCU v. College of Charleston +6||Top||76-71||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on College of Charleston +6 -109
I love the value here with the Cougars as a decently priced home dog against the Rams. VCU is the household name in this matchup and I think it has them laying a few to many in this one. Note the books have really been inflating the number on the Rams of late. VCU has failed to cover five straight and are just 2-8 ATS on the season. They are also 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Charleston is off to a very respectable 5-5 start. A .500 record might not seem great, but they have played the likes of Oklahoma State, Marshall, UCF (twice), Wake Forest, Providence and Richmond. Most of those games they were very competitive.
Last year the Cougars went on the road and beat VCU 83-79 as a 5.5-point dog and what I like is they got the guards to handle this Rams pressure with 3 really good ball handlers in Galloway, Jasper and Riller.
Another thing here is the Rams have not shot the ball well in 2019 and are still missing one of their better outside shooters in Malik Crowfield. Not to mention the Cougars are holding opponents to 40% from the field at home. Take Charleston!
|12-18-19||DePaul v. Cleveland State +16||73-65||Win||101||10 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland State +16 +101
I really like the value here with the Vikings as a massive home dog against DePaul. Not many people saw the Blue Demons being this good this early on in 2019. DePaul is off to an impressive 10-1 start, which includes a 7-3 ATS mark. However, we are far enough in that the betting public has caught on and now the books are really starting to inflate their price.
I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Blue Demons, as this is not a team they need their best effort against to get a win. It's their first road game in almost 3 weeks and they got a big matchup with Northwestern at home on Saturday.
Also worth noting that a lot of DePaul's ATS success has come in the role of a dog. Blue Demons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also just 2-9 ATS last 11 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Take Cleveland State!
|12-17-19||San Francisco +6.5 v. Stanford||Top||56-64||Loss||-109||11 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Francisco +6½ -109
Love the value here with the Dons as a decently priced dog against the Cardinal. Stanford has been one of the big surprises early, as they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. However, both the betting public and the books have figured out just how good the Cardinal are and we are seeing them a little overpriced here against a good San Francisco team.
Dons are 9-2 to start the year and one of those losses is by a mere 4-points to Arizona State. That's not their only good showing against a Pac-12 foe, as they beat Cal at home by 12 earlier this month. Dons are 17-6 ATS last 23 on the road after 2 straight covers as a favorite.
Also a great system in play to fade the Cardinal. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 off a road win by 20 or more are just 17-45 (27%) ATS since 1997 in games involving 2 teams that have won 80% or more of their games. Take San Francisco!
|12-17-19||Florida v. Providence +5.5||83-51||Loss||-115||8 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Providence +5½ -115
I really like the value here with the Friars as a decently priced dog against the Gators in Tuesday's matchup in the Hall of Fame Invitational at the Barclays Center. Florida has been one of the most overrated teams in the country by the books. While the Gators are a respectable 6-3 SU, they are just 2-7 ATS. Last time out they lost by 14 at Butler as a mere 3.5-point dog.
Providence hasn't been much better of late, but the Friars continue to play hard and they really get after you defensively. Providence is only allowing opponents to shoot 42% from the field against them and are 11th in the country in defensive turnover rate.
Florida's lackluster offense is a big reason for their disappointing start and they have struggled against good defensive teams. Gators are just 8-17 ATS last 25 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 5-13 ATS last 18 vs teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Providence!
|12-16-19||Bulls v. Thunder -6||106-109||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -6 -110
Really like the value here with Oklahoma City at home tonight against the Bulls. Chicago comes in off an upset win at home over the Clippers, which looks great on paper until you realize LA didn't play Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams or Pat Beverly. Not to mention it was the Clippers 3rd game in 4 days and wrapped up a 6-game road trip.
Prior to taking advantage of that game against a depleted and tired Clippers team, the Bulls managed just 73 points in a home loss to the Hornets. Chicago's offense has been one of the worst in the league early on, as they come in 27th in effective field goal percentage.
Hard to win games on the road or even keep them close for that matter when you struggle to put the ball in the hoop. Thunder might be just 11-14, but do own a 7-5 record at home and are 5-3 over their last 8 with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5. Take Oklahoma City!
|12-16-19||Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2.5||Top||85-47||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Western Illinois +2½ -110
I love the value here with Western Illinois as a small home dog against rival Eastern Illinois. Books have been consistently undervaluing the Leathernecks here of late, as they come in having covered 4 straight.
Eastern Illinois may have the better record, but they have played the much easier schedule. The Panthers also lack size, as they got a 6'5 guy playing center. The offense also doesn't produce at near the same level on the road. Eastern Illinois is averaging 78.3 ppg on the season, but just 68.3 ppg away from home.
That lack of offense on the road figures to really hurt them here, as Western Illinois comes in averaging 80.9 ppg on the season and 90.0 ppg at home, where they are shooting a healthy 48% from the field and 44% from long distance.
Leathernecks are a strong 9-4-1 ATS last 14 as a home dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Panthers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been listed as a road favorite. Take Western Illinois!
|12-15-19||Samford +7.5 v. Hawaii||Top||73-94||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Samford +7½ -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog at Hawaii on Sunday. I know the competition hasn't been the best, but it's worth noting that Samford has scored 97 and 113 points in their last two games. In their last game they beat Houston Baptist by 23 as a mere 4.5-point favorite and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
Hawaii is 6-3, but those 6 wins are against the likes of Pacific, Portland State, Florida A&M, New Orleans, San Francisco and Hawaii Pacific. Even with that soft schedule their largest margin of victory all season is by 13-points.
Rainbow Warriors are not a team to back as a favorite, as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when laying points. They are also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Bulldogs are also a healthy 31-12-1 ATS last 44 non-conference games. Take Samford!
|12-15-19||Vikings v. Chargers +3||Top||39-10||Loss||-120||106 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120
I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it.
Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer.
Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home.
Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles!
|12-15-19||Texans +3 v. Titans||24-21||Win||100||103 h 35 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Texans +3 -115
Most are going to look to lay the short number here with the Titans, as Tennessee comes in having won and covered in each of their last 4 games, while Houston just got embarrassed at home by the Broncos as a 8-point favorite.
I'm not about to say the Titans aren't a good team, but I definitely don't trust them in this spot. I also think the Texans simply laid an egg last week against Denver after that massive home win over the Patriots. I fully expect Deshaun Watson and that Houston team to bounce back in a big way with 1st place in the AFC South on the line.
Watson and the Texans have really thrived in the role of underdog. In games that Watson starts in which Houston is getting points, the Texans have gone 11-4 ATS, including an 8-3 ATS mark in this spot on the road. Houston is also 8-2-1 ATS last 11 off a game where they failed to cover and 6-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home.
Titans are just 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 division games and just 4-11-1 ATS last 16 times they have been matched up against the Texans. Take Houston!
|12-14-19||Gonzaga +3.5 v. Arizona||Top||84-80||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Gonzaga +3½ -110
I love the value here with the Bulldogs getting points at Arizona. While the Wildcats are greatly improved over last year and these two come into this game with identical 10-1 records, I feel Gonzaga is by far the better team.
Arizona comes in off a blowout 99-49 win and cover against Nebraska-Omaha, but prior to that had failed to cover 4 straight. Wildcats are also going to be down one of their better players in Stone Gettings.
Another key thing here is the matchup on the boards. Arizona's head coach Sean Miller flat out said his teams biggest weakness was their defensive rebounding. That's a big time problem against a Gonzaga team that is great at generating second chances by hitting the offensive glass. I just don't think the Wildcats will be able to go score-for-score with the juggernaut that is the Bulldogs offense. Take Gonzaga!
|12-14-19||UC-Davis +8 v. San Diego||54-58||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UC-Davis +8 -110
Easy play here for me on UC-Davis as a near double-digit dog against the Toreros. The Aggies are just 4-7, but the schedule has not been favorable. They also started out the season a dreadful 0-6 ATS. However, they have come to life in the last few weeks and come in having covered 4 straight and are off back-to-back outright wins as a dog.
San Diego has been on cruise control in their last two games, but are just 18-34 ATS last 52 at home after holding 2 straight opponents to 65 or less and are a dreadful 0-7 ATS in their last 7 at home after leading in their previous 2 games by 10+ points at the half. Take UC-Davis!
|12-14-19||Clippers v. Bulls +6||106-109||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS CASH COW on Bulls +6 -109
I think the Bulls are definitely worth a shot here as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers on Saturday. Chicago absolutely laid an egg at home last night against the Hornets, as they managed just 73 points on 30% shooting in a double-digit loss as a 7-point favorite.
That performance will have the betting public wanting nothing to do with the Bulls in this matchup against the Clippers, who come in having won 4 straight and are 13-2 in their last 15 overall. The books know this and have shaded the line here to help Chicago cover.
Note that we should get a max effort here from the Bulls off that clunker, especially against a top tier team like LA. As for the Clippers, they are the ones I would be concerned about not bringing their "A" game. LA is also playing on no rest after a hard fought win at Minnesota last night and will be concluding a lengthy 6-game road trip tonight. Take Chicago!
|12-14-19||Georgia Tech +15.5 v. Kentucky||53-67||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech +15½ -109
I like the value here with Georgia Tech catching a big number against the Wildcats. Most are going to just look to lay the big number with Kentucky after seeing that the Yellow Jackets were trounced at home by Syracuse 97-63 in their last game. I just think we are going to get a big effort here from Georgia Tech off that ugly showing against the Orange.
On top of that, I think we could see Kentucky come out a bit flat. Wildcats haven't played in a week and in just a few days will be heading to Las Vegas to take on Utah. Wildcats are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6, so the books have definitely been inflating the number on them.
Yellow Jackets are 13-3 ATS last 16 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road against strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Take Georgia Tech!
|12-14-19||Army v. Navy -10||Top||7-31||Win||100||80 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Army/Navy NO LIMIT Top Play on Navy -10 -110
I got no problem laying double-digits with the Midshipmen in Saturday's huge rivalry game with Army. Some might think Navy will be looking ahead to their bowl, while Army is going to treat this like it's their bowl game. Sure the Black Knights are going to come to play, but don't think for a second that the Midshipmen aren't 100% focused on this game.
A big reason for that is they come in having lost 3 straight in the series after they had rattled off 14 wins in a row over Army. A big reason for the Black Knights recent success is they for the first time in a long time had the better talent on the field. This year Army has underperformed big time and finished just 5-7, despite a schedule that had many calling for at least 8 wins.
Navy has played the much tougher schedule and are 9-2. Midshipmen are the better team on both side of the ball and I just think they come out with a chip on their shoulder Saturday and win here by at least 14.
Army is just 1-9 ATS last 10 as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points and have lost in this spot by an average score of 35 to 10. Take Navy!
|12-14-19||Alabama v. Penn State -10.5||71-73||Loss||-109||4 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS DESTROYER on Penn State -10½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number at home with Penn State as they get ready to host Alabama. The Nittany Lions come in off an impressive 76-69 win at home over No. 4 Maryland and should have no problem making easy work of the Crimson Tide.
With that win Penn State improved to 6-0 at home. Alabama is just 4-4 overall with their 4 wins against the likes of FAU, Furman, Southern Miss and SF Austin. Crimson Tide are just 1-3 away from home and a big reason for that is they are allowing 85.2 ppg on 48.4% shooting on the road. That's a problem, as Penn State is scoring 80.5 ppg at home.
Nittany Lions should also have a big edge here on the glass with their strong frontcourt and Alabama's guard heavy lineup. Not to mention the Crimson Tide's inability to take care of the ball. They rank 322nd in offensive turnover rate. This thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Take Penn State!
|12-14-19||Oregon +4 v. Michigan||71-70||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +4 -110
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a small road dog against the Wolverines. Few coaches are better than Oregon's Dana Altman at getting his team ready for big games. Ducks have already compiled an impressive 7-1 ATS record this season when matched up against a team with a winning record.
Michigan had that great run in the Battle 4 Atlantics, knocking off Iowa St, UNC and Gonzaga in a 3-day span. They went from unranked to the Top 10 and I'm not so sure it was warranted. Michigan has lost 2 of 3 since returning from that tournament, including a 62-71 loss at Illinois last time out.
I know the Wolverines are a good home team, but Oregon is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in their last 9 when facing a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Oregon!
|12-13-19||Prairie View A&M +7 v. Loyola Marymount||76-79||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Prairie View A&M +7 -110
The Panthers are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against Loyola Marymount. Prairie View A&M is just 3-6 overall, but that was to be expected. Panthers haven't played at home since opening the season at home on Nov. 5 against Jarvis Xian. They have played each of their last 8 games away from home and all but two have been true road games.
While the wins haven't been there, they are an impressive 5-1 ATS and roll in having covered 3 straight. They only lost by 9 last time out at Arizona State and have also lost by just 4 at both UCF and Cal, as well a mere 14-point loss at Texas. If they can go on the road in those venues and keep it that close, they are capable of covering this and even winning outright.
Lions are just 1-8 ATS last 9 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and 6-2 ATS last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Prairie View A&M!
|12-13-19||Bucks v. Grizzlies +10.5||Top||127-114||Loss||-109||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies +10½ -109
I love the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Bucks. Milwaukee has won 16 straight and are fresh off a 15-point win over the Pelicans without Antetokounmpo and he's questionable to play here. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bucks gave him another night off, especially against a sub-par team like Memphis.
The Grizzlies have won two straight since star rookie Ja Morant returned from a 4-game absence and this team is more than capable of keeping this close with him on the floor. I also think this is a tricky spot for Milwaukee. They just played 3 straight at home and will return home for 3 more after this contest. Real easy for them to just kind of take this game off and go through the motions.
Bucks are a mere 7-24 ATS in their last 31 off 3 or more consecutive home wins and just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Grizzlies are returning home after 4-straight on the road. Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Take Memphis!
|12-12-19||Northern Iowa -5.5 v. Grand Canyon||82-58||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Iowa -5½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Panthers. Dan Majerle's Antelope's team is better than their 4-7 record, but I still think they are outclassed in this one. UNI really came on strong at the end of last year and look like a team that's poised to make a serious run for a MVC title.
Panthers are 9-1 with the only loss coming by 5 to West Virginia. They just went on the road and beat Colorado 79-76 as a 9.5-point dog and that's a really impressive win with how good the Buffaloes are at home. UNI improved to 7-1 ATS on the season and a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home. Take Northern Iowa!
|12-12-19||Jets +15 v. Ravens||Top||21-42||Loss||-110||37 h 22 m||Show|
5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110
I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one.
The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one.
It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books.
Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York!
|12-11-19||Knicks v. Warriors -4.5||124-122||Loss||-110||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Warriors laying a short number at home against the Knicks. The fact that the Warriors are just 5-20 overall and just lost at home as a favorite to a bad Memphis team, is a big part of the value we are getting here.
The thing is the Warriors are still playing to win and this Knicks team is one they can have their way with, especially at home. New York is 1-10 on the road this season and are getting outscored on the road by 15.1 ppg. Not to mention the Knicks are in a tough scheduling spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Portland. Take Golden State!
|12-11-19||Hawks v. Bulls -4.5||102-136||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS CASH COW on Bulls -4½ -110
I like the value here with the Bulls laying a short number at home against the Hawks. Chicago has went from a team a lot of people were really high on to start the year to a team no one really wants anything to do with, especially as a favorite.
Those that have taken advantage of the poor perception on the Bulls have been rewarded with some nice profits here of late. Chicago has covered 5 of their last 6 and now are laying a small number against a bad Hawks team that is just 3-10 on the road, where they are getting outscored by 13.3 ppg. Take Chicago!
|12-11-19||Boise State +3 v. Tulsa||Top||56-69||Loss||-110||14 h 44 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State +3 -110
Love the value here with the Broncos as a road dog against the Golden Hurricane, as my numbers say Boise State should be favored here. Tulsa comes in at 7-2, but it's a fraudulent mark, as they have played the 353rd ranked strength of schedule.
We saw some of how overvalued the Golden Hurricane are in their last game, as they lost outright at home as a 13-point favorite to Arkansas State. Boise State on the other hand has been way undervalued of late. Broncos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
I just don't see Tulsa being able to keep pace offensively. Tulsa is only averaging 70.9 ppg and that's against opponents that on average give up 75.7 ppg. Boise State is scoring 81.0 ppg and that's against opponents that are giving up just 71.0 ppg. Take Boise State!
|12-11-19||Rockets -10.5 v. Cavs||116-110||Loss||-115||13 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -10½ -115
I got no problem laying double-digits here with Houston, as we should get a big effort with the Rockets coming off a upset loss at home to the Kings. Not many better teams to get right against than the Cavs right now. After losing by 47 at Philadelphia on Saturday they responded by losing by 22 at Boston. Houston can pretty much name the score in this one.
Rockets have covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and have covered 4 of their last 5 off a loss and failed cover. Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record and have lost 4 straight as a dog. Take Houston!
|12-11-19||Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5||83-80||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Massachusetts +4½ -110
I like the value here with UMass as a small home dog against the Bulldogs. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Minutemen after losing 5 straight and getting drubbed in their last game at Harvard 89-55. It' also the perfect time to sell high on Yale, who has won 5 straight and covered 8 in a row.
It's not like UMass has been losing to a bunch of bad teams. They were a dog in all 5 losses and 4 of those were away from home. We should get a max effort here from the Minutemen in this one. For Yale, I think they are not only overpriced, but also in a tough spot here playing their 3rd straight on the road in a 8 day stretch. Take UMASS!
|12-10-19||Knicks +9 v. Blazers||87-115||Loss||-105||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Knicks +9 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a near double-digit dog against the Blazers. This is just too big a price for Portland to be laying right now. Blazers are down two starters to injury in Zach Collins and Rodney Hood and are still trying to adjust to life with Carmelo Anthony.
Portland has lost 3 of 4 and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Knicks have lost 9 straight, which is why the line is what it is, but several of those have been single-digit defeats. History is also on our side with New York.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games in the month of December are 45-20 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!
|12-10-19||Nevada +8.5 v. BYU||Top||42-75||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nevada +8½ -110
I really like the value here with the Wolf Pack as a near double-digit dog against the Cougars. Steve Alford is doing a tremendous job in his first year with Nevada, despite having to put together a make-shift roster after all 5 starters and 7 of the top 8 rotation players departed.
Wolf Pack come in having won 5 straight. All five wins have come by double-digits as a single-digit favorite, so they are far exceeding the books value on them right now. Nevada definitely has the offensive fire-power to hand with BYU, as the Wolf Pack come in averaging 79.6 ppg. What's crazy is they score even more on the road, as they are scoring 81.2 ppg and shooting 49.1% from the field away from home.
BYU has not been a good bet in games that are expected to be shootouts, as they are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games with a total of 150 to 159.5. Cougars are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Nevada!
|12-10-19||Maryland v. Penn State +1||69-76||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Penn State +1 -110
This line really says it all. You got the No. 4 ranked team and undefeated (10-0) team in the country the slimmest of road favorites against an unranked Penn State team. Books clearly like the Nittany Lions to win this game and so do I.
Maryland is talented, there's no denying that, but they lack chemistry, routinely get off to slow starts and don't take high percentage shots. They were extremely fortunate to win at home against Illinois last time out, as they went on a 11-1 run in the last 5 minutes to win 59-58.
Penn State isn't just good enough to get up on the Terps, but they can bury them if Maryland doesn't bring their 'A' game tonight. Nittany Lions are 5-0 at home and are shooting 47% from the field at home, while allowing just 38%. Atmosphere is going to be electric as well and this is easily the toughest true road game of the season for Maryland. Take Penn State!
|12-09-19||Cavs +14 v. Celtics||88-110||Loss||-105||7 h 13 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Cavs +14 -105
The Cavs are definitely worth a look here as a huge road dog against the Celtics. I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Cleveland. I just think the number here has been inflated due to the fact that Boston is such a big public team and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Cleveland also comes in having lost 6 straight and are just 1-5 ATS in this stretch.
These two played at Cleveland a little over a month ago (Nov. 5) and the Cavs hung around in that one at home, losing by just 6 and that was with Boston shooting 57% from the field. Celtics have also failed to produce in this spot, as they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 at home vs a team with a losing record and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Cleveland!
|12-09-19||Clippers v. Pacers +1.5||110-99||Loss||-109||8 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pacers +1½ -109
The Pacers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Clippers Monday. Most are going to look to take LA as a small road favorite, but this is not an ideal spot for the Clippers, who had to play at Washington on Sunday and will be suiting up for the 3rd time in the last 4 days.
Not to mention the Pacers are playing extremely well right now and are going to be fired up to show off against one of the league's top teams. Indiana is 8-2 in their last 10 games and have gone 9-2 on their home floor this season. Keep in mind the Clippers are just 4-6 on the road compared to 13-1 at home.
Indiana is returning home from a 5-game road trip and are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home off a road trip of 7 or more days. Pacers are also 16-5-1 ATS last 22 at home vs a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take Indiana!
|12-08-19||Wolves +11 v. Lakers||125-142||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Wolves +11 -105
Great value here with the Timberwolves as a double-digit dog against the Lakers on Sunday. LA has been costing the books a lot here of late, as they come in having covered 3 in a row. I think it's got them way overvalued here against Minnesota.
This is not an ideal spot for the Lakers. While they are back home after a 3-game road trip, those 3 road games were at Denver, Utah and Portland and they got just 1 day off for this game. The Timberwolves are also a great road team, as they come in 7-4 SU and 7-4 ATS away from home this season.
TWolves are 8-3 ATS last 11 as a road dog, while the Lakers are just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 0-4 last 4 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Minnesota!
|12-08-19||Seahawks v. Rams +1||12-28||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
4* NFL - RAMS/SEAHAWKS SNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Rams +1 -105
The Rams are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home turf against the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Seattle has quickly went from a team not many people trusted to one of the biggest public plays on the board.
Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which has created a ton of value here with the Rams. Even though LA is off an impressive 34-7 win at Arizona last week, the betting public can't get that ugly 45-6 loss to the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back out of their head.
I just think the key here is Goff and that LA offense should be able to move the ball against what I think is a pretty average Seattle defense. I also don't love the spot for the Seahawks, as they are coming off 3 huge games. They played at San Francisco, at Philadelphia and at home against the Vikings. Rams are out to make a statement in this one and I expect them to do just that. Take Los Angeles!
|12-08-19||Bulls +8 v. Heat||105-110||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +8 -115
I like the value here with the Bulls as a big road against the Heat on Sunday. Chicago has been playing better here of late and come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games, but the books have been making it tough for them to cover with some inflated lines after their great start. Heat are just 3-5 ATS last 8 games.
Bulls are a perfect 9-0 ATS last 3 seasons when playing on the road after covering 3 of their last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 trips to Miami. Take Chicago!
|12-08-19||Texas -8.5 v. Texas A&M||60-50||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Texas -8½ -109
I look for the Longhorns to have no problem winning by double-digits on the road against the Aggies. Texas is off to a strong 7-1 start to their season with the only loss coming on a neutral court to Georgetown.
Texas A&M is just 3-4 and have lost 3 straight. The Aggies have also been one of the most overvalued teams in the country early on, as they are a miserable 0-7 ATS. Texas A&M just can't get their offense going and are up against a really good Texas defense. Aggies come in averaging just 57.1 ppg on 36% shooting. Longhorns are giving up 59.5 ppg on 41% shooting.
Another thing is turnovers, Texas A&M does not take good care of the basketball and Texas knows how to force teams into mistakes. This should lead to a lot of easy points in transition for the Longhorns, which will allow them to win here comfortably. Take Texas!
|12-08-19||South Alabama +7 v. Richmond||57-75||Loss||-109||4 h 1 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on South Alabama +7 -109
I like the value here with the Jaguars as a decently priced road dog against the Spiders. I just think Richmond is a bit overvalued right now. Spiders have started out 7-1 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
For me the biggest thing that sticks out is the one common opponent in Auburn. While both teams lost to the Tigers, South Alabama lost by just 1-point and Richmond lost by 14. Another thing here is the Spiders could be short-handed, as two of Richmonds top scorers, Nathan Cayo and Grant Golden are both questionable to play.
Jaguars are 13-5 ATS last 18 games against a team with a winning record and a dominant 11-3 ATS last 14 vs a team that's averaging 77+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|12-08-19||Panthers v. Falcons -3||Top||20-40||Win||100||5 h 34 m||Show|
5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125
I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start.
Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins.
Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta!
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +6.5||24-17||Loss||-107||5 h 34 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bills +6½ -107
I really like the value here with Buffalo catching close to a touchdown at home against the Ravens. I just think we are seeing Baltimore way overvalued right now, as the betting public just can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and this team. Hard to blame them given the Ravens have covered 5 of their last 6. They did however fail to cover as a 6-point favorite at home last week against the 49ers.
I not only think they could fail to cover at Buffalo this Sunday, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Bills won this game outright. Buffalo is built for an offense like the Ravens and are going to be well-prepared for Jackson with the extra 3 days of prep they got this week after playing on Thanksgiving.
I also don't love the spot at all for Baltimore, as they have been in 3 huge games the last 3 weeks against the Texans, Rams and 49ers. I just think they are going to struggle to match the intensity of the Bills and let's not overlook just how tough it is to win in Buffalo when they are playing well.
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS with Josh Allen at QB as a dog, which includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a home dog. Ravens are just 5-12 ATS last 17 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a failed cover. Take Buffalo!
|12-07-19||Portland v. Seattle University -4.5||71-73||Loss||-109||12 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Seattle University -4½ -109
Don't be fooled by the overall records in this one, as Portland is 6-2 and Seattle comes in at just 5-5. The value is with the RedHawks as a small favorite. Seattle comes in having won and covered 3 straight and their poor start can be attributed to a really tough schedule. Portland on the other hand has had it easy and are coming off a loss at home to CS-Northridge by 7 as a 5-point favorite.
Both of these teams have played Incarnate Word at home. Seattle won by a score of 81-60, where Portland snuck out a 65-56 win. Redhawks won by 21 despite shooting just 42% from the field and turning it over 16 times, so the gap could have been a lot larger.
Portland comes in allowing just 61.9 ppg and are holding opponents to 38% from the field. Seattle seems to play their best against good defensive teams, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team that's holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Seattle!
|12-07-19||Colorado State v. Boise State -5.5||64-75||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -5½ -109
I'm confident the Broncos are going to cover the spread at home against the Rams. Boise State comes in off a mere 2-point loss at New Mexico, but covered for the 4th straight game as a 5-point dog. Clearly the books haven't been giving this team the respect they deserve and I think this line should be closer to double-digits.
Colorado State just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace in this one. Rams are only scoring 67.8 ppg away from home and will be facing a Broncos offense that is averaging 84.5 ppg on 47% shooting at home this season.
Teams off a cover where they lost as a dog are 64-33 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games involving two marginal winning teams. Take Boise State!
|12-07-19||CS Sacramento +1 v. CS-Fullerton||62-59||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS VEGAS INSIDER on CS Sacramento +1 -110
I really like the value here the Hornets at basically a pick'em against the Titans. CS-Sacramento is 5-1 with their only loss coming at Colorado, which they covered in as a 17-point dog. CS-Fullerton is just 3-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. The Titans have lost 3 straight overall.
Playing at home has not benefited Fullerton, as they are a mere 2-7-1 ATS last 10 home games. They are also just 4-15 ATS last 19 vs a team with a winning record. Titans are 4-0 ATS on the season and are riding a 5-0 ATS run on the road. Take CS-Sacramento!
|12-07-19||Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State||21-34||Win||100||60 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big Ten Championship VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin +17 -115
I really like the value here with the Badgers getting three scores against the Buckeyes in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game. The public is going to be on Ohio State in this one. Not only because they are off an impressive 56-27 blowout win at Michigan last week, but because of the fact they beat Wisconsin 38-7 with a 431 to 191 edge in total yards when these two played in the regular-season.
As lopsided as the box score was in that first meeting, Wisconsin held their own for a good chunk of that game. Ohio State was only up 10-0 at the half and 24-7 going into the 4th quarter. I don't think Wisconsin's offense can play any worse than they did in that game and they closed out the season really strong on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 37 or more in each of their last 3.
The other big factor here is the health of Buckeye's star quarterback Justin Fields. He's probable to play with a knee injury, but I don't think he's going to be playing at 100%. I could definitely see him not utilizing his legs like he has and I think taking away his ability to run really makes things easier on the Wisconsin defense. They should also be better off having already faced this offense once.
Badgers are 32-15 ATS last 47 vs excellent offenses that average 450 or more yards/game and a perfect 8-0 ATS last 8 times they have been on the road when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Take Wisconsin!
|12-07-19||Morehead State +7.5 v. Illinois State||50-61||Loss||-109||9 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Morehead State +7½ -109
I like the value here with the Eagles as a decently priced road dog against Illinois State. The Redbirds got no business here being this big of favorite against Morehead State. Illinois State is just 3-5 and while a number of those losses have come against quality teams, they also lost to Grand Canyon and their only two Div 1 wins have come by 7 or less.
I also don't love the mental state of this Redbirds team. Head coach Dan Muller, threw his team under the bus after their most recent loss to TCU, saying "We're just not good enough to win this game, a game like this." Not the first time Muller has been quick to speak poorly of his team. Clearly they aren't responding to his criticism and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if they lost this game outright. Take Morehead State!
|12-07-19||Georgia +7.5 v. LSU||Top||10-37||Loss||-110||56 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Georgia/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7½ -110
I love the value here with Georgia keeping this within a touchdown against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU has been the talk of college football this year and it's only a matter of time before Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow is named this year's Heisman winner. I just think with how the public is pounding LSU right now, it's resulted in too good a price to pass up with Georgia.
The biggest thing that I think people are overlooking in this game is Georgia's defense and part of that is the public just doesn't think this LSU offense can be stopped. The Bulldogs defense was already going to be fired up for this game and I think all the Burrow talk will have them playing with a massive chip on their shoulder. Keep in mind Georgia hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game this season and are excellent against both the run and the pass.
Ed Orgeron has proven he's more than just a motivator, but I still give the coaching edge to Georgia's Kirby Smart. People were saying the same things about Georgia the last two years when they met up with Alabama in the national title game in 2017 and in last year's SEC title game. They lost both of those games, but should have won both meetings.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining teams by 125 or more total yards and off a game where they gained 6.75 or more yards/play are 60-28 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. At the same time, neutral field underdogs that are outrushing opponents by 100 yards/game are 36-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Georgia!
|12-07-19||Hawaii +14 v. Boise State||10-31||Loss||-110||55 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - MWC Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +14 -110
This is too good a price to pass up with the Rainbow Warriors as a two touchdown dog against the Broncos. Boise State is the household name and are nationally ranked, so no surprise the public is on the favorite in this one. I'm not saying Hawaii is going to win this game outright, but I'm confident they will put up a fight and keep this within two touchdowns.
I know Boise State won the regular-season meeting by 22 at home, but there's reason to believe that Hawaii can make up the ground. Broncos only had a 518 to 438 edge in total yards and 29 to 24 advantage in first downs. The difference in that game was the Warriors turned it over 4 times to Boise State's 1 turnover.
I also like the fact that all the pressure is on the Broncos, as they need this win to have any shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. Hawaii on the other hand can play loose, as they really got nothing to lose.
Rainbow Warriors don't have the best defense, but road teams that are coming off a game where they allowed 7.25 or more yards/play, who have an experienced QB are a dominant 72-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if facing a team with an inexperienced QB. Take Hawaii!
|12-07-19||Delaware -1.5 v. George Washington||56-66||Loss||-109||6 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Delaware -1½ -109
I got no problem laying the small number here with the Blue Hens at George Washington. Delaware is off to a perfect 9-0 start to their season and have already won 4 games away from home, including 3 true road games.
As for George Washington, they are just 4-5 to start the season and have lost to the likes of Towson, American, Morgan St and UMKC. The only reason the line is low, is because they have covered 4 straight.
I just don't see GW being able to keep pace offensively. Delaware is averaging 77.1 ppg and shooting 48.9% from the field. The Colonials are only scoring 67.1 ppg and shooting 41% from the field. They will be up against a Blue Hens defense that only allows 63 ppg and 39% shooting. Take Delaware!
|12-07-19||Pelicans +9 v. Mavs||84-130||Loss||-110||3 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pelicans +9 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans in Saturday's early NBA action against the Mavs. Dallas comes in having gone a ridiculous 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. However, I think the books have had enough and have drastically inflated the number in this one.
I know the Pelicans come in having lost 7 straight, but they have been competitive in a lot of those games. I also think the losing streak makes it a lot harder on the Mavs to get up for this one. Last time out New Orleans fell 132-139 at home to the Suns and that's worth noting as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home defeat.
We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have lost 4 or more consecutive games are 44-19 (70%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take New Orleans!
|12-07-19||West Virginia v. St. John's +4.5||68-70||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St. John's +4½ -109
I like the Red Storm as a home dog against the Mountaineers in Saturday's early college hoops action. I just think West Virginia is getting a little too much love here. Mountaineers could be a little rusty having only played 1 game in the last 9 days. They will also be playing their first true road game since visiting Pitt way back on Nov. 15.
St. John's comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 at home with their only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a decent Vermont team. What I like about the Red Storm here is they are locked in defensively to start the year. Opposing teams are shooting just 38% from the field against them on the season. West Virginia is only hitting 43% on the season and a mere 39% away from home. Take St John's!
|12-07-19||Florida v. Butler -3||62-76||Win||100||2 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on Butler -3 -110
The Bulldogs are definitely worth a look here as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Gators on Saturday. Butler is a perfect 8-0 to start the season with quality wins over the likes of Minnesota, Missouri, Stanford and Ole Miss. Each of the last 3 coming away from home.
Florida is 6-2, but have not looked anything close to what we expected to see from this team coming into the year. Gators have been consistently overvalued by the books, as they are just 2-6 ATS. They have just not been able to find a rhythm offensively this year and hard to imagine they figure it out in a hostile environment against a stingy Bulldogs defense that is giving up just 55.5 ppg, while holding teams to just 40.6% shooting.
Gators are a miserable 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons vs top caliber teams that are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game and 0-6 ATS last 6 vs a team that shoots 48% or better from the field. Bulldogs are 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a win and 13-2 ATS last 15 at home in Saturday games. Take Butler!
|12-06-19||North Dakota +7.5 v. Montana||Top||70-77||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on North Dakota +7½ -110
The Fighting Hawks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Grizzlies. While both teams have an identical 3-5 record, North Dakota has played the tougher schedule, especially when you consider they have played just one game on their home floor all season.
While neither team is lighting it up offensively, Montana has really struggled on that side of the ball, scoring just 63.2 ppg, and are scoring 5.7 ppg under what their opponents have allowed. North Dakota is at 69.0 ppg, despite all those road games.
I also like the matchup for the Fighting Hawks, as they run their offense thru big man Filip Rebraca, who is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.2 rpg, while shooting 63% from the field. I just don't think Montana has the guys inside to keep Rebraca from having a big game here.
Fighting Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 8-2 ATS last 10 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take North Dakota!
|12-06-19||Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics||95-108||Loss||-105||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nuggets +3½ -105
I know the Celtics are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, but I think the Nuggets are the play when Denver visits Boston on Friday. These two teams played a couple weeks ago and Denver won 96-92, but it was much more lopsided than that, as the Nuggets held a 70-57 edge going into the 4th quarter.
Boston is also not been a good bet when they are a small favorite. Celtics are just 4-10-1 ATS last 11 home games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, including a 2-6 ATS mark in this spot at home. Denver is playing on 0 days rest, but yesterday's game at NY was a blowout, so they will be ready to go. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS last 7 on no rest. They are also 3-0-1 ATS last 4 trips to Boston. Take Denver!
|12-05-19||Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Mississippi State||74-67||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Louisiana Tech +8½ -109
I really like the value here with Louisiana Tech as a decently priced dog at Mississippi State. Mississippi State is off to a strong 6-1 start and have covered 5 straight, but I think that has them getting a little too much respect here.
This Louisiana Tech team is the real deal. They have 4 starters back from a team that managed to win 20 games last year despite being hit hard with injuries. Louisiana Tech is off to a strong 5-2 start with their only two losses coming by 10 at Creighton and by 13 at Indiana. Two teams I think are better than Mississippi State.
Louisiana Tech can really disrupt teams with their defensive pressure. That combined with the experience they have at the guard position has them winning the turnover battle just about every time out. They have only lost the turnover battle twice all season and both times were a mere -2.
Louisiana Tech is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 as a road dog. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-05-19||Rockets v. Raptors -2||Top||119-109||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -109
The Raptors are worth a look here as I think we are getting some exceptional value with Toronto laying a short number at home against the Rockets. Toronto comes into this off a crushing OT loss at home to Miami and they are 7-1 ATS last 8 times off a loss by more than 10 points.
As for the Rockets, they will have had just 1-day off since their double-overtime loss at San Antonio on Tuesday. Five different players for Houston logged at least 40 minutes with Westbrook, Harden and Tucker all playing 48+. I just don't see the Rockets have a whole lot left in the tank in this one.
That game against the Spurs ended 235-233 and that's worth noting, as Houston is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a contest that had 245 or more combined points.
Also, underdogs that have won 60% to 70% of their games and are off a game that went over the total by 30 or more are just 5-26 (16%) ATS if they are playing a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!
|12-04-19||Kings v. Blazers -3.5||116-127||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night NO LIMIT ATS DESTROYER on Blazers -3½ -110
I really like the value here with Portland as a small home favorite against the Kings. I think we are getting a great price here on the Blazers due to the fact that this is a bad scheduling spot for them playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
With that said, the addition of Carmelo Anthony has given this Portland team a huge spark. Anthony has been way better than anyone could have expected. Last week he averaged 22.3 ppg on 57.4% shooting, including 45.5% from deep. His emergence gives the Blazers a legit 3-man scoring punch with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of which have started to shoot the ball much better since Anthony's arrival.
Portland also doesn't have the luxury of taking nights off right now, as they got some major ground to make up with a 8-13 record. They have won 3 of 4 with the only loss to the Clippers last night. Kings had covered 12 of 13 before losing at home to the Bulls as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday and I think we are going to see them struggle a bit now that the books have clearly adjusted the number on them. Take Portland!
|12-04-19||CS-Northridge v. Portland -4.5||71-64||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Portland -4½ -109
The Matadors suffered a massive blow prior to the season ever starting, as reigning Big West Player of the Year, Newcomer of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Lamine Diane, was ruled academically ineligible. CS-Northridge has started out just 1-7 without Diane and are 0-6 in games away from home, losing by an average of 21.6 ppg.
On the flip side of this, Portland has came out of nowhere to start the year 6-1, with the only loss coming at USC by a mere 11-points. Keep in mind the Pilots only won 7 games all of last year. The schedule hasn't been overly challenging, but the important thing is they are 5-1 ATS. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win here by more than the number. Take Portland!
|12-04-19||San Diego State v. Colorado State +5||79-57||Loss||-110||11 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Colorado State +5 -110
Colorado State is worth a look here as a home dog against the Aztecs. I just think San Diego State is getting a little too much respect from the books after starting out the season 8-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.
One reason to expect the Aztecs to regress is how fortunate they have been in the battle at the 3-point line. San Diego State has shot a ridiculous 40.9% from deep. Considering the national average is 33%, it's only a matter of time before they start regressing and opposing teams are only hitting 32% from deep against the Rams.
Aztecs' opponents have also shot just 26.7% from behind the 3-point line against them. They figure to struggle to improve that number here, as Colorado State is shooting 38% from deep on the season. Take Colorado State!
|12-04-19||UC-Davis v. Northern Arizona -4.5||85-66||Loss||-109||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Northern Arizona -4½ -109
I like the value here with the Lumberjacks as a small home favorite against UC-Davis. Northern Arizona has to be the freshest team in the country, as they have only played 4 games all season and this will be just their 3rd in the last 19 days. That's a lot of valuable practice time, but at the same time the players have to be chomping at the bit to get on the floor against another team.
Hard to not like their chances of winning here rather easily against a struggling Aggies team that comes in having lost 6 straight. Not only that but UC-Davis has to be running on fumes with all the travel they have had to do here of late. They have played 9 games and only 1 of those were on their home court, which was back on Nov. 7th. Each of their last 3 games have been true road contests.
Aggies are just 5-14 ATS last 19 non-conference games and 7-16 ATS last 23 as an underdog. Take Northern Arizona!
|12-04-19||Virginia v. Purdue +1||40-69||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Purdue +1 -110
The Boilermakers are worth a look here as a home dog against No. 5 Virginia. The fact that the No. 5 team is basically a pick'em against an unranked opponent says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Cavaliers, which means they must really like how Purdue matches up here.
One thing is certain. The Boilermakers won't be thrown off by Virginia's grind it out style of play. Purdue ranks 348th in the country in tempo and want to win in the same way. I know the Cavaliers won at Syracuse earlier in the season, but that's a bad Orange team. This is easily their toughest true road game to date and with an offense that can't score it's hard to beat quality teams away from home.
Purdue has lost all 3 of their meetings against top programs, falling to Texas, Marquette and FSU, but were very competitive in all 3 defeats. Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a statement win against one of the nation's best teams. Take Purdue!
|12-04-19||Eastern Illinois +5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne||Top||69-74||Push||0||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Illinois +5 -110
I love the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Mastodons. These two played last year at Eastern Illinois and IUPU-Ft Wayne embarrassed the Panthers 104-60 as a mere 3.5-point favorite. All 5 starters are back for Eastern Illinois and you can bet they have had this one circled since the schedule was released.
The Mastodons only return 2 starters from last year's team and had to replace their dynamic scoring duo of John Konchar (19.5 ppg) and Kason Harrell (15.2 ppg). IUPU comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against some soft competition. I think we got a real taste for the talent level on this team when they lost by 39 at Ohio State.
Eastern Illinois is just 4-3, but two of those losses were on the road against Power 5 opponents in Texas Tech and Wisconsin. The other came on no rest in a tournament. Speaking of rest, the Panthers haven't played since Nov. 24, while the Mastodons just played on Saturday. Take Eastern Illinois!
|12-03-19||Florida State +3 v. Indiana||64-80||Loss||-109||11 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Florida State +3 -109
The books are making a big mistake here with listing the Seminoles as a road dog against the Hoosiers. Florida State is the No. 17 ranked team in the country and have already played true road games at BC and Florida, as well as neutral site games against Tennessee and Purdue. They are 3-1 in those games with the only loss by a mere 2-points.
Indiana is a well-known program and are simply getting a little too much love after their perfect 7-0 start to the season. The thing is, the Hoosiers should be 7-0 with who they scheduled. Indiana's strength of schedule ranks 345th out of the possible 353 Division 1 teams. They also haven't been dominating these bad teams like they should. They only beat Portland State by 11, LA Tech by 13 and S Dakota State by 14.
Indiana's offense has not been tested, so don't be fooled by their 86.4 scoring average. I think they are in for a rude awakening on the offensive side of the ball against a deep, athletic and talented FSU defense that is only giving up 59.9 ppg (holding teams 10.1 ppg under their average) and have allowed opponents to shoot just 35.8% from the field. Take Florida State!
|12-03-19||Buffalo v. Vanderbilt -2.5||Top||76-90||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt -2½ -110
I love the value here with the Commodores as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Vandy made a lot of buzz when they hired former NBA star Jerry Stackhouse to be their new head coach, but no one is expecting much of this team in year one.
I get it, but I think those low expectations have the Commodores undervalued here against a team they should be able to handle. Buffalo was a great story last year winning 32 games and making it to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament, but they lost head coach Nate Oats to Alabama and lost 5 seniors off that team.
Bulls have started out a respectable 5-2, but a big part of that is the schedule. I think a 63-68 home loss to Dartmouth speaks to how much less talented this team is compared to the previous two years. This is also Buffalo's first true road game of the season and that's always a difficult spot. Commodores are going to be motivated off that ugly loss to Tulsa at home last time out and are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MAC. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-03-19||Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5||118-97||Loss||-105||9 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +4½ -105
Most are going to look at this game and just blindly take the Mavs. Hard to blame them given Dallas has won 7 of 8 and are off a 114-100 win against the Lakers, snapping LA's 10-game win streak. The thing is, the books aren't stupid.
They know that as good as the Mavs been playing, they are due to for a letdown off that big win, especially given that they are on the road and facing a struggling Pelicans team that has lost 5 straight. Thing is while the wins aren't there, NO has been playing well with each of their last 3 losses coming by 5-points or less.
The most recent was a 104-107 setback at home to the Thunder as a 1-point favorite. That result is worth noting, as the Pelicans are 18-7 ATS last 25 off a home loss and 9-1 ATS when off a home loss as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|12-03-19||Pistons v. Cavs +3||127-94||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +3 -110
The Cavaliers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pistons. I just think there's no way Detroit should be laying points on the road against any team right now. The Pistons are just 7-13 overall and a miserable 1-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by 7.8 ppg. I know Detroit comes in off 132-98 blowout win over the Spurs at home, but they haven't won back-to-back games once all season.
Cleveland is a work in progress, but they play hard and could be getting back a couple of key guys back. Rookie Dylan Windler could make his season debut and big man John Henson could return from injury. Either way I like the Cavs here, who are well rested having not played since last Friday.
Pistons have also not shown well against bad teams, going just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|12-03-19||Oakland v. Western Michigan +1.5||72-62||Loss||-110||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers ATS Line MISTAKE on Western Michigan +1½ -110
The Broncos are worth a look here as a home dog against the Golden Grizzlies, as my numbers suggest that Western Michigan should be the ones favored in this matchup. Both teams come in at 4-4, but Oakland is just 1-4 away from home getting outscored by almost 9 ppg. Broncos are 3-0 at home winning by 22 ppg.
One of the big reasons the Golden Grizzlies are struggling away from home is they have inexperienced guards that are struggling to make the right plays, especially in the critical points of the game.
Another thing here is rest. This is Oakland's third straight true road games since last Monday. Western Michigan on the other hand has had the luxury of not playing since last Tuesday. Broncos are 48-27 (64%) ATS in their last 75 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have also covered 6 of their last 7 vs a team from the Horizon. Take Western Michigan!
|12-03-19||Jacksonville State v. George Mason -8.5||60-67||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on George Mason -8½ -109
I got no problem backing the Patriots at home against Jacksonville State. George Mason is off to an impressive 8-1 start with their only setback coming in a true road game at Maryland.
That loss to the Terps seemed to light a fire under this team as they went out and won 3 games in 3 days to secure the title at the Cayman Islands Classic last week. The Patriots will certainly looked to carry over that momentum here.
George Mason has one of the best players you probably haven't heard of in junior forward A.J. Wilson. He's nearly averaging a double-double with 12.4 ppg and 9.7 rpg. He's also been a force inside averaging 3.8 blocks. He's anchoring a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 39.2% shooting from the field on the season.
The Gamecocks are just 2-4 and those two wins have come against Brecia, who has no business being on the floor with a D1 school, and Chicago State, who they were favored by 20 against (only won by 9). I just don't see them keeping this within single-digits. Take George Mason!
|12-02-19||Pacers v. Grizzlies +10||117-104||Loss||-110||10 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +10 -110
I really like the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Pacers. I just think Indiana is getting way too much love from the books in this spot. Not a big surprise given the Pacers have gone 12-4 in their last 16.
I just think it's asking a little too much for Indiana to be favored by this much given they will be playing their 2nd straight on the road, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Memphis snapped a 6-game skid with a 115-107 upset win as a 12-point dog at Minnesota yesterday and despite their struggles to win games have gone a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
Pacers are just 8-18 ATS last 26 on the road after playing their previous game on the road and 3-15 ATS last 18 on the road after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS last 17 when revenging a same season loss. Take Memphis!
|12-02-19||Florida Atlantic v. St Bonaventure -1.5||64-71||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St Bonaventure -1½ -109
The Bonnies are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Owls in their final round matchup of the Boca Raton Beach Classic. FAU is lucky to even be in this game, as they barely squeaked by Illinois-Chicago 71-70 on Sunday. The Owls shot just 42% from the field and turned it over 20 times.
FAU has also been overvalued on a consistent basis by the books to start out the season. Owls are just 1-5 ATS and are failing to cover by 3.5 points/game. Also, you can just look at how bad they were in their against their two toughest opponents, losing by 14 at Miami and by 19 at Alabama.
Bonnies have won 3 of 4 since starting out 0-3 and to no surprise the turnaround has come with the recent additions of Osun Osunniyi and Jaren English to the rotation. Both were instrumental in their win yesterday over San Diego. Osunniyi had 15 points and 10 boards, while English had 2 points to go with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.
Owls are just 5-14 ATS last 19 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take St. Bonaventure!
|12-02-19||Suns -4.5 v. Hornets||109-104||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Suns -4½ -110
I really like the value here with the Suns, as I feel like this is the perfect spot to jump on them. Phoenix comes in having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. A big reason for their struggles is they had some key guys out. They have recently got them back and I look for them to get back to their early season form that saw them open the season 7-4.
Charlotte is the perfect team to get right against. The Hornets are one of the last talented teams in the league and are just 4-10 in their last 14. Three of those four wins have come against a bad Pistons team and the other against an awful Knicks team. Each of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits. Look for the Suns to make easy work of the Hornets tonight. Take Phoenix!
|12-02-19||Furman -3.5 v. South Florida||Top||55-65||Loss||-109||9 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Furman -3½ -109
A lot of people will be wondering why Furman, a team out of the Southern Conference is laying points on the road against a Bulls team that won 24-games last year and is expected to compete for a AAC title. I believe it's for good reason.
The Paladins are off to a strong 7-1 start to the season with their only setback being a 8-point loss against a good Alabama team. There's a lot to like with Furman in this matchup. While the Paladins turned it over 17 times last time out against Arlington, that was an outlier for this team. They only had 30 turnovers in their last 3 games combined.
USF is a team that really relies on forcing turnovers, so that's not a good sign for them. Bulls are also awful at taking care of the ball. They have turned it over 15 or more times in 5 of their 7 games. USF has also not been great at defending the rim and this Paladins team ranks 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage.
Paladins are 10-1 ATS last 11 road games as favorite, while USF is a mere 4-14 ATS last 18 at home off a loss. Take Furman!
|12-01-19||San Diego v. St Bonaventure -2||61-70||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on St Bonaventure -2 -109
I really like the value here with the Bonnies laying a short number against the Toreros in Sunday's opening round action at the Boca Raton Beach Classic. St Bonaventure is just 2-4, but have been playing short handed early on.
They just recently added both big man Osun Osunniyi and guard Jaren English to the rotation. Both have made big impacts already and I think this team is going to have no problem here against San Diego. Toreros are just 3-5 and simply should be a much bigger dog in this fight.
Bonnies are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 neutral site games. San Diego is a miserable 7-18-1 last 26 vs a team with a losing record. Take St Bonaventure!
|12-01-19||Mavs +7 v. Lakers||114-100||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Mavs +7 -110
I just think we are getting too good a price here with the Mavs because of the Lakers coming in having won 10 straight. Dallas isn't quite on that level, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. Their only loss coming against the Clippers, who are a really tough matchup for them with all the elite defenders they can throw at Luka Doncic.
Lakers are a good defensive team, but I don't think they got anyone that can shutdown Doncic and there's going to be a game here soon where LA lays an egg and this winning streak comes to an end. I really think the Mavs could pull off the upset here. Either way, they should keep it close. Despite all the wins LA is racking up, they are just 2-4 ATS last 6 games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7.
Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 road games and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Lakers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Dallas!
|12-01-19||Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount +2||51-61||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Loyola Marymount +2 -109
The Lions are worth a look here as a home dog against the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah should not be favored in this matchup. Loyola is just 2-4, but have played a pretty tough schedule as they have been a dog in every game this season with a line posted.
I just don't like the matchup here for the Thunderbirds. You have to be able to shoot the 3-ball well against this zone defense of Loyola-Marymount that just isn't going to let you get easy looks inside. That's a problem for a Southern Utah offense that relies heavily on dribble penetration. Thunderbirds only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 31% from deep. Note it's much worse on the road, where they only average 4 made 3-pointers and are shooting 22%.
Turnovers also figure to play a big factor in this outcome. Lions take really good care of the ball, while Southern Utah is one of the worst in the country at giving up the rock.
Lions are 8-0 ATS last 8 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and the Thunderbirds are 0-7 ATS last 7 on the road after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|12-01-19||Celtics v. Knicks +8||113-104||Loss||-115||5 h 5 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Knicks +8 -115
I really like the value here with New York as a near double-digit home dog against the Celtics. No question Boston is the better team, I just think the Celtics are ready to get this game over with and head back home after a hectic last few days that has seen them host the Nets on Wednesday, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets Friday and then stay in New York Saturday for this one.
Boston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now either, as they have lost 4 of their last 7. Knicks have lost 5 straight, but are a very respectable 4-3-1 ATS last 8 games. While the Celtics could struggle to get up for this one, New York figures to give a big effort as they haven't forgot about the ugly 118-95 home loss they suffered at the hands of Boston earlier this season.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December, who have lost 4 or more games in a row are a dominant 43-15 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York!
|12-01-19||Rhode Island v. West Virginia -9||Top||81-86||Loss||-110||4 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia -9 -110
I love the value here with West Virginia laying single digits at home against the Rams. No surprise that Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers back on track after a disappointing 2018-19 campaign. West Virginia is 6-0 and there's no question this year's team is light years better than last years.
Rhode Island is off to a strong 5-2 start, but have a couple of ugly losses on the resume. They fell by 18 at Maryland and by 13 to LSU on a neutral site. West Virginia is a very difficult place to play and I just don't see the Ram being able to keep this close.
Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS last 11 non-conference games and have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. They are also just 1-8 ATS last 9 on the road after winning 3 of 4. Take West Virginia!
|12-01-19||Bucs -1.5 v. Jaguars||Top||28-11||Win||100||46 h 32 m||Show|
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110
I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42).
The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over.
Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay!
|12-01-19||Titans +1.5 v. Colts||31-17||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
4* NFL - Titans/Colts ATS WINNER on Titans +1½ -110
I got a strong feeling on both the side and the total in Sunday's huge AFC South matchup between the Colts and Titans. I think we are getting an excellent price here on both Tennessee and the UNDER.
The Titans have really come on strong in the second half of the season. Tennessee is 4-1 in their last 5. A big reason for their turnaround is the switch from Mariota to Tannehill at QB, as they now have an offense that can compliment their defense. With T.Y. Hilton not able to go for Indy, I just don't see the Colts being able to win this game.
As for the UNDER, both of these teams want to play ball control with the run game and both defenses are built to stop the run. I just don't think there's going to be enough possessions for this to eclipse the mark. I expect something very similar to the first meeting that ended 19-17 with a combined total of 36.
Titans are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record and the UNDER is 14-3 in the Colts last 17 vs a team with a winning record, 15-5 in their last 20 in the 2nd half of the season and 8-1 in the Titans last 9 on the road off a division game. Take the Titans & UNDER!
|12-01-19||Browns -2 v. Steelers||13-20||Loss||-110||5 h 53 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Browns -2 -110
A lot of people are probably thinking the Steelers are the pissed off team after what went down in the previous meeting with Garrett swinging and hitting Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph with his own helmet. However, the Browns feel like Pittsburgh is the one that started it and now they want to finish it.
The biggest thing here outside of all that is Cleveland is just the better team. They dominated the previous matchup in a 21-7 win. Pittsburgh's offense turned it over 4 times and have really struggled to score of late. It's so bad they are going to Devlin Hodges at quarterback. Hodges threw a 79 yard TD pass in the win over the Bengals last week. Take away that one big play and he was a mere 4 of 10 for 39 yards. Add in no Ju-Ju Smith-Schster and James Conner and NY simply doesn't have the talent offensively to win this game.
Browns have won and covered 3 in a row and this recent surge has come after they played an absolutely brutal schedule early. I think they make a statement here by sweeping the Steelers and moving a step closer to locking in a Wild Card spot.
Teams (Steelers) with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 14 or more with a winning pct. of 51% to 60% are a mere 13-36 (26%) ATS since 1983. Take Cleveland!
|12-01-19||Army v. Hawaii -2||31-52||Win||100||15 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Army/Hawaii BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Hawaii -2 -105
I think the public perception here is that because the Rainbow Warriors have already locked up a spot in the MWC title game next week, they aren't going to show up for this one. I just don't think that's the case. With a win the Rainbow Warriors would improve to 9-4 and that means they would have two shots to get to that elusive 10-win mark.
As for Army, this has been a season to forget, as the Black Knights have come nowhere close to meeting expectations. Army has won their last two, but against two awful teams in UMass and VMI. Their other 3 wins are against Rice, UTSA and Morgan State. They just aren't very good.
This is also a horrible matchup for the Knights, as they are not good at defending the pass, especially teams like Hawaii that can really stretch the field with their air attack. Look for the Warriors to score at will and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take Hawaii!
|11-30-19||Green Bay +6 v. Montana State||98-72||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on Green Bay +6 -115
I like the value here with the Phoenix as a decently priced road dog against the Bobcats. Green Bay is just 2-4, while Montana State is 5-2, but the Phoenix have played the much tougher schedule. Three of their four losses are true road games against the likes of Purdue, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
Green Bay does come in off an ugly 99-81 loss to Colgate, but are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU Loss. The Phoenix are also 6-1 ATS last 7 times they have played a team from the Big Sky Conference. Bobcats are off a 82-46 blowout win over Colorado Christian, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 off a win by more than 20 and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Green Bay!
|11-30-19||Texas A&M v. LSU -16.5||7-50||Win||100||88 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/LSU Prime Time ATS DESTROYER on LSU -16½ -110
I got no problem here laying the points with the Tigers at home against the Aggies. LSU is 100% locked in right now. Even with a spot in next week's SEC title game locked up, I don't think it's going to stop them from winning here by 20+ on senior day, especially with this being a night game.
Texas A&M is better than they get credit for, as they have played a brutal schedule, but they still are now match for the Tigers. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for them coming off that emotional game at Georgia last week.
Aggies are just 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more and 12-28 ATS last 40 on the road vs teams who are outscoring opponents by 17+ ppg.
History is also on our side. Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB back as their starter are 51-19 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if they come in having outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards. Take LSU!
|11-30-19||North Carolina -10 v. NC State||41-10||Win||100||28 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UNC/NC State ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -10 -110
Easy play here for me on the Tar Heels winning by more than 10 at rival NC State. No question the Wolfpack will play hard here against their in-state rivals, but they just don't have enough talent or healthy bodies to make a game of it.
NC State has been on a complete free fall, as they enter having lost 5 straight, including a heartbreaker 26-28 setback at Georgia Tech in their most recent game to put to bed any hopes of getting to a bowl. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mac Brown, but they still need one more win to get bowl eligible.
All 6 of the Tar Heels' losses this season have come by 7-points or less, 3 of those decided by a field goal or less, including a mere 1-point loss at home to Clemson. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents and UNC has outgained those 3 teams by 3 ppg, while NC State has been outscored by 27.0 ppg.
Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost in this spot by a ridiculous 30.6 ppg. Take North Carolina!
|11-30-19||Notre Dame -16 v. Stanford||45-24||Win||100||29 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - ND/Stanford Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -16 -110
The Fighting Irish are worth a look here as a big road favorite against the Cardinal. Notre Dame has really responded well to that ugly loss to Michigan, as they have rattled off 4 straight wins. Each of the last 3 have come in blowout fashion. They crushed Duke 38-7 as a 7-point road favorite, rolled Navy 52-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite and destroyed BC 40-7 as a 20.5-point favorite.
Irish are clearly okay with going to a New Year's Day bowl and they can pretty much lock up a spot with a win here. Stanford on the other hand has lost 3 straight and failed to cover all 3. The most recent being a 20-24 home loss to rival Cal, which marked their 7th loss of the season and put to rest any hopes of getting to a bowl game.
With K.J. Costello expected to miss this game, I just don't know how the Cardinal offense is going to be able to score enough to keep this close. Their defense has given up 31 or more in 3 of their last 5 and this Irish offense is one of the best in the country averaging 36.4 ppg, scoring almost 10 points more than what their opponents allow.
ND is 23-10 ATS last 33 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road games vs a team with a losing record. Cardinal are just 2-8 ATS last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a loss. Take Notre Dame!
|11-30-19||Denver +1 v. SE Missouri State||51-66||Loss||-104||6 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Denver +1 -104
I like the value here with the Pioneers in their matchup against SE Missouri State. My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored in this one. The Redhawks are just 2-4 and their only two wins are against Missouri S&T and IUPU-Ft Wayne. Both wins coming by a mere 1-point.
SE Missouri State comes in off a cover in a 75-87 loss as a 14-point dog to Santa Clara, but are 0-5 ATS last 5 times they enter off a cover. They are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Take Denver!
|11-30-19||East Carolina v. James Madison -1.5||89-99||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on James Madison -1½ -109
The Dukes are worth a look as a small home favorite against the Pirates. I'm just not a fan of this East Carolina team and how they play. The Pirates are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they come in shooting just 23.7% from deep and are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers a game.
ECU is only shooting 41% from the field in all and really need to get to the foul line to score and that's a big problem here. James Madison doesn't foul. Their opponents average just 13 free throw attempts per game. On the flip side, ECU fouls like crazy, so there's going to be a major discrepancy at both the 3-point and foul line, two major obstacles to overcome.
ECU is just 12-23 ATS last 35 vs a team with a winning record, 3-9 ATS last 12 overall and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take James Madison!
|11-30-19||NC-Greensboro +7 v. Georgetown||65-61||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Afternoon ATS MASSACRE on NC-Greensboro +7 -115
UNC Greensboro is worth a look here as dog against the Hoyas on Saturday. This might seem like a small number for Georgetown to be laying against a team from the Southern Conference, but I really like this Spartans team. Their only two setbacks are a 1-point loss to Montana State and a mere 12-point setback at Kansas.
One key area that should give Greensboro a shot at pulling off the upset is turnovers. The Spartans are one of the best in the country at putting pressure on their opponents, as they come in 10th in the nation forcing turnovers on more than 1/4 (26.5%) of their opponents possessions. Georgetown does not take good care of the ball, as rank 278th with a turnover rate of 22.2%.
Hoyas are also just 8-19 ATS last 3 seasons as a home favorite and a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 non-conference home games. Take UNC Greensboro!
|11-30-19||Indiana v. Purdue +7||Top||44-41||Win||100||91 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +7 -115
I love the value here with the Boilermakers catching a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. I think the fact that Purdue is sitting at 4-7 and can't get to a bowl has people thinking they won't show up. I don't think that will be the case at all. If anything it just continues a run here of the Boilermakers being undervalued, as they have covered 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall.
Indiana's already got 7-wins, so they are just playing to get to a slightly better bowl, but I also think they could be out of gas here after playing their last two games against big time opponents in Penn State and Michigan.
Hoosiers defense struggled against both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. Road teams who are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg are just 45-87 (34%) ATS after allowing 31 or more in 2 straight over the last 10 seasons. Boilermakers are also a dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Take Purdue!
|11-29-19||Iowa v. San Diego State -2||73-83||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS HEAVY HITTER on San Diego State -2 -104
I really like the spot and price we are getting with the Aztecs as a short favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in off a huge upset of No. 12 Texas Tech, as they downed the Red Raiders 72-61 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Give the Hawks credit, but I think that was more of Texas Tech beating themselves than anything. Red Raiders shot just 32.8% from the field and were a dreadful 4-24 (17%) from long distance. That's the same Iowa defense that gave up 93 points on 61% shooting at home to DePaul earlier this season.
As for San Diego State, I think the Aztecs are a flying a bit under the radar, as this is a Top 25 team in my eyes. SDST improved to 7-0 with a emphatic 83-52 win over Creighton yesterday. They are giving up 55.4 ppg on just 36% shooting and holding teams almost 15 points under their scoring average. Iowa's offense is going to struggle and the defense is poised to regress. Take San Diego State!
|11-29-19||Raptors -3.5 v. Magic||90-83||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt Oddsmakers ERROR on Raptors -3½ -110
Easy play here with Toronto laying a short number at Orlando on Friday. The Raptors have already had their way with the Magic twice this season. They won by 9 at home on Oct. 28 and then by 16 in the rematch on Nov. 20. While both of those were played in Toronto, I don't think being at home will be enough for Orlando to change the script.
Big reason for that is the Magic are still missing two of their best players as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic both remain sidelined with ankle injuries. Not to mention Orlando has just not showed up against the better team. Raptors are way better than just about anyone anticipated after losing Kawhi Leonard. They have won 5 straight and are 13-4 overall.
Road favorites (TORONTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 69-35 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto!
|11-29-19||SIU-Edwardsville +12.5 v. Cal-Riverside||51-69||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on SIU-Edwardsville +12½ -110
SIU-Edwardsville is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Highlanders. UC-Riverside comes in off 3 straight wins, but it's nothing to get overly excited about. The wins were against the likes of Longwood, Denver and Redlands. I just think it has them way overvalued, as they got no business laying this kind of number.
The Cougars are just 2-5, but have played the much tougher schedule. They failed to cover in their last game at Pacific, but that's almost better for us here, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Riverside is just 6-17 ATS last 23 off a win, 1-5 ATS last 6 off a cover and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a favorite of 10 or more. Take SIU-Edwardsville!
|11-29-19||Boise State -13.5 v. Colorado State||31-24||Loss||-110||41 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Boise State -13½ -110
I think we are getting a bit of a discount here on Boise State, as the perception here is that the Broncos won't be 100% motivated given they have already locked up the MWC Mountain Division and spot in next week's MWC title game against Hawaii.
I'm just not buying it. Boise State is trying to make a New Year's Six Bowl and they can also do something they have never done before in MWC play, that's finish the season with an undefeated record in league play.
If there's any team that's going to be lacking motivation it's Colorado State. I could have seen the Rams getting up for this one if Boise needed to win to make the title game, but that's not the case. There's also no hopes for an upset to get to a bowl, as they suffered their 7th loss of the season last week in a hard fought 17-7 loss at Wyoming.
Broncos have not taken it easy on bad teams. They are 7-1-2 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record, including 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing home record. Take Boise State!
|11-29-19||Iowa -4.5 v. Nebraska||Top||27-24||Loss||-109||101 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -4½ -109
I cashed in on Nebraska last week at Maryland and the Cornhuskers didn't disappoint, as they took out a season worth of frustration in a 54-7 victory over the Terps. However, that win doesn't change the outlook on this Nebraska team and I'll gladly back a much better Iowa team laying less than a touchdown on Friday.
Hawkeyes have owned the Cornhuskers of late with 4 straight wins against their rivals. I'm confident they make it 5 in a row, as I think the conditions for this game will heavily favor Iowa. It's going to be miserable with rain expected throughout. That's going to allow the Hawkeyes to focus that much more on a one-dimensional Nebraska offense.
As for the Cornhuskers defense, don't be fooled by their big effort against Maryland. Prior to holding the Terps to a mere 7-points they had allowed 30+ in 4 straight games and even Maryland was able to run for 149 against them. Iowa should control both sides of the ball and win here easily.
Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS last 27 as a road favorite of 7 or less, while the Cornhuskers are a mere 4-15 ATS last 19 at home and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog.
|11-29-19||Michigan v. Gonzaga -3||82-64||Loss||-109||3 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Gonzaga -3 -109
I just really like this Gonzaga team and feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Bulldogs. Michigan has impressed early on and are off that big upset over No. 6 UNC on Thanksgiving Day.
Not to take anything away from the Wolverines, but they simply couldn't miss. Michigan shot 50% from the field and 42% from deep. It's hard to stack those kinds of games on top of each other, especially against elite competition.
Gonzaga is every bit as good as they have been in the past few years and I think it says a lot about this team being able to beat a really good Oregon team, despite an off night shooting. Bulldogs hit just 39% from the field and 32% from deep.
Wolverines are just 1-8 last 9 times they come into a game having covered 4 of their last 5. Underdogs in November who are shooting 52% or better from the field are also a mere 16-41 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Gonzaga!
|11-28-19||UCF +2.5 v. Pennsylvania||67-68||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on UCF +2½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the Knights in their opening round matchup against Penn in the Wooden Legacy out in Anaheim. UCF has started out 3-1 with their only loss coming to Miami. They responded to that setback with two impressive wins over Illinois State and Charleston.
Penn comes in off a big upset win over Providence, but the Quakers have also lost to the likes of Rice and Lafayette by double-digits as favorites. Big thing for me is I don't think Penn will have much left in the tank for this tournament. Quakers have played 4 of their first 5 on the road.
Knights are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 away from home in the month of November and 11-4 ATS last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Quakers just 1-4 ATS last 5 on a neutral site. Take UCF!
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