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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-17-19||James Madison +4.5 v. Delaware||Top||69-76||Loss||-109||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +
The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog.
As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games.
The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison!
|01-17-19||Towson +4.5 v. Drexel||Top||66-72||Loss||-109||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson +
This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright.
Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson!
|01-17-19||Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's||58-56||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +
We are getting a great price here on the Jaspers in Thursday's road slate at St. Peter's. It's been a rough go for Manhattan, who is just 3-13 on the season and 1-3 in league play, but it's not been a whole lot better for the Peacocks, who have won a mere 5 games.
Road team has had the edge in this series, covering 4 of the last 5 and the Jaspers are a red-hot 6-1 in their last 7 trips to St. Peter's. Last year they won 68-57 as a very similarly priced 5.5-point dog. Take Manhattan!
|01-16-19||Houston v. SMU +1||69-58||Loss||-109||11 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +
Too much value here with the Mustangs to pass up. Houston comes in with a 16-1 record and ranked in the Top 25. They started out the season 10-4 ATS and are simply way overvalued by the books right now. We have seen that inflation cost their backers in each of their 2 games, as they failed to cover in an outright loss at Temple and most recently as a 11-point home favorite against Wichita St (won by 9).
SMU got off to a bit of a slow start, but come in having won 5 of their last 6, including an impressive 20-point win over Tulsa as a 8.5-point favorite last time out. The defense has really picked up for the Mustangs and we know we are getting their best on that side of the ball at home against a big time rival.
Mustangs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 at home after a win and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home off a win by 15 or more points. Take SMU!
|01-16-19||South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -3.5||74-71||Loss||-108||9 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -
This line tells you all you need to know. Vanderbilt is 0-3 in SEC play and is a 3.5-point favorite over South Carolina, who is 3-0 in conference action. Commodores only home game in SEC play was against Ole Miss, who at the time was playing out of their mind and I think they caught Vandy by surprise.
That won't be the case here, as we know we are going to get the best the Commodores have to offer in this one. Even with that loss at home to the Rebels, Vanderbilt is still 8-2 at home, where they are averaging an impressive 86.1 ppg and shooting 50% from the field.
Gamecocks are a mere 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field and they are 1-4 ATS last 5 trips to face the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt!
|01-15-19||Warriors v. Nuggets +1.5||142-111||Loss||-115||9 h 16 m||Show|
4* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +
The betting public will be all over Golden State here, as the Warriors have started to play well and will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Denver. I just don't see that being the case. Like it or not the Nuggets aren't going anywhere this season.
For all the star power that Golden State has, they are still not the same team on the road as they are at home and Denver comes in with a 18-3 record on their home floor and are riding a 12-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center.
Nuggets have covered 17 of their last 22 at home against teams from the Pacific Division and are 12-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a win. Warriors are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs a team from the Western Conference and 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Denver!
|01-15-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron -6.5||49-51||Loss||-109||7 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Akron -
Great spot to jump on the Zips at home. We can bank on a big time effort here from Akron coming off back-to-back upset losses on the road to Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. They should have no problem covering this number against an Eagles side that has been bad on the road.
Eastern Michigan is a mere 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home. The Zips on the other hand are 7-1 at home this season. The defensive numbers really stand out here with the home/away splits. Eagles are giving up 80.7 ppg and 50.6% shooting on the road. Akron is allowing just 55.9 ppg and 34.7% shooting at home.
Big time system in play here as well. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 105-58 (64%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Akron!
|01-14-19||Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6||62-75||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Power 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on Pitt +
This is a great price to get the Panthers at home. This is a much improved Pitt team from a year. The Panthers were 8-24 overall and 0-18 in ACC play last season. They are off to an 11-5 start and while they are just 1-2 in league play, they have home loss to UNC and a close road loss at NC State. The win was a victory at home over Louisville as a dog.
Florida State is a really good team, but I think it's really asking a lot for the Seminoles to go on the road here and blowout the Panthers. This is an absolutely brutal spot for FSU, who just suffered a gut-wrenching 80-78 loss to Duke at home, where the Blue Devils won the game on a last second 3-pointer. Those are the kind of losses that are difficult to bounce back from.
I just don't think the energy will be there for the Seminoles and wouldn't be shocked at all if Pitt won this game outright. Panthers are 11-4 ATS last 15 overall, 12-3-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss. FSU is 0-8 ATS last 8 as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road after a home game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take Pittsburgh!
|01-13-19||Rockets -5.5 v. Magic||109-116||Loss||-107||19 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Rockets -
Houston is playing too well right now to pass up playing them as a short road favorite against the Magic. Orlando comes in off an upset win at home over the Celtics on Saturday. While that win looks great, I'm expecting a big letdown playing on no rest. Magic had lost 4 straight, all by double-digits, leading up to that game. Orlando is also 7-20 ATS last 27 at home off an upset win as a dog.
Adding to this is a great system in play on the Rockets. Road favorites of a blowout win by at least 20 points in a game involving two teams that are scoring 102+ points/game are 70-38 (64.8%) ATS her the last 5 seasons. Take Houston!
|01-13-19||Fairfield +3.5 v. Quinnipiac||78-80||Win||100||15 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Fairfield +
Like the value here with the Stags getting points against the Bobcats. Fairfield comes in off back-to-back home wins and while they are just 3-6 SU in their last 9, they have covered 5 of their last 7.
The Stags are 37-19 ATS last 56 road games after playing 2 straight games at home and 40-23 ATS in their last 63 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Quinnipiac has won 2 of their last 3, but are just 15-30 ATS when they come into a game having done so.
This series has also been dominated by the road team, as the away side has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Stags have covered 4 straight at Quinnipiac. Take Fairfield!
|01-13-19||Iona +3 v. Canisius||88-70||Win||100||15 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Iona +
The books have the wrong team favored in this one, as my numbers show Iona should be a small favorite here. Gaels are just 4-10 overall, but are 2-1 in conference play and will have no problem picking apart a bad Golden Griffins defense that is giving up 80.6 ppg and allowing 48% shooting on their home floor.
Canisius is 4-10 ATS last 14 games, 1-9 ATS last 10 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home.
Adding to this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Golden Griffins. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite have covered just 32.2% (29-61) of the time since 1997. Take Iona!
|01-13-19||Chargers +4 v. Patriots||Top||28-41||Loss||-106||51 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers +
I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread.
Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly.
The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Hornets v. Kings -5||97-104||Win||100||14 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Kings -
Easy play here for me on the Kings as a small home favorite against the Hornets. Sacramento got back on the winning track with a 112-102 win at home against the Pistons on Thursday and have really been playing solid basketball of late. While they are just 2-5 in their last 7, they have covered 3 of 4 and all 5 losses have come by 7 or less.
Sacramento should have no problem here taking down a struggling Charlotte team that is coming off an ugly 127-96 loss at Portland last night and now faced with the difficult task of playing the 2nd leg of a back-to-back on the road. On top of that, this is their 5th straight on the road, so they have to be running on fumes.
Thinking Charlotte is primed for a bounce back after the blowout loss last night? Hornets are 0-8 ATS last 2 seasons off a loss by 20 or more. They are also 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Sacramento!
|01-12-19||Pacific -4 v. Portland||65-57||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific -
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Tigers as a small road favorite against the Pilots. Pacific should have no trouble winning this game, but are being undervalued by the books because they come in off an ugly 67-36 loss at Gonzaga, which was their 3rd straight overall. Note the other two were both against quality teams.
This is also a big game for the Tigers, as they are still searching for that first conference win and while the same can be said about Portland, a lot less is expected of them. Pilots are a mere 4-10-1 ATS last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-6 ATS last 7 after a SU loss by more than 20. Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 after scoring 50 or less and 5-1 ATS last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Pacific!
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams -7||22-30||Win||100||34 h 51 m||Show|
3* NFL Saturday (Cowboys/Rams) HEAVY HITTER on Rams -
It's been quite a run for these Cowboys since they made the trade for Amari Cooper, but I think they are going to have a very tough time keeping it respectable against LA on Saturday. For me it's all about the matchup.
Dallas has a strong pass rush and is good at stopping the run. That's great against a team like Seattle, who to their own demise ran the ball way too much last week. When the Seahawks were forced to pass they did so with relative ease and I think had they gone to it earlier they would have won.
The Rams aren't going to try to pound the rock against this defense, even with an elite back like Todd Gurley. Sean McVay is too smart and will be quick to attack a very vulnerable Cowboys secondary. Gurley will still get his touches, just more in the passing game.
Another thing with the Dallas defense is they weren't nearly as good on the road. Cowboys allowed only 327 ypg on the season, yet gave up 368 ypg on the road, which tells you how different the story was for this defense depending on the venue.
I also think people see that the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and assume the Cowboys will be able to run the ball with ease. A lot of that has to do with LA playing a bunch of games where they had big leads and were playing more a prevent defense, which will give up big yards on the ground. Donald and Suh will be difference makers and I don't buy for a second that Dak Prescott can have the kind of game to go score for score with the Rams. Take Los Angeles!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||13-31||Win||100||30 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL Saturday (Colts/Chiefs) VEGAS INSIDER on Chiefs -
I really like the value here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home against the Colts. Even though the Chiefs arguably have the best quarterback in the league and the likely MVP, the public is on Andrew Luck and Indy in this one.
While the Chiefs missed out on a couple opportunities to clinch the AFC West and No. 1 seed in the final few weeks, it may have been for the best. I would have been a lot more concerned with this team if they had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 15 and had the last couple weeks mean nothing and them basically going into this game not having played a meaningful game in almost a month.
The bottom line is they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and while Andy Reid and the Chiefs don't have the best postseason history, none of that matters with No. 15 at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is special and the inability to score has been the biggest downfall in a lot of recent home losses for KC.
Last year they were held to 21 points and shutout in the 2nd half of a 22-21 loss and in 2016 they fell 18-16 to the Steelers in the Divisional Round. Scoring won't be a problem. The Chiefs at least 26 points in every game and as bad as the defense has been on paper, there's no debate that they are a completely different defense at home.
I know the Chiefs didn't know exactly who they would face, but Andy Reid with multiple weeks to prepare for a game has been nearly unbeatable. I just think all the factors here heavily favor not just a KC win, but a comfortable victory on Saturday. Take Kansas City!
|01-12-19||Towson +5 v. James Madison||Top||65-74||Loss||-108||8 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson +
The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule.
The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson!
|01-12-19||Northeastern -1 v. William & Mary||90-70||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Northeastern -
The Huskies come in off a 81-70 win at Elon last time out and should have no problem securing another road win against William & Mary. The Tribe have a solid 5-3 SU record over their last 8, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
The books have tipped their hand in recent meetings between these two, as the favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 overall. Key here will be defense or the lack of it from William & Mary. The Tribe are allowing 80 ppg, as opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field and 38% from deep against them this season.
It's also worth pointing out that the Huskies are 19-8 ATS last 27 on the road after a conference road game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 on the road with a line of +3 to -3. Take Northeastern!
|01-12-19||TCU v. Oklahoma -4||74-76||Loss||-105||6 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -
Oklahoma should have no problem covering this short number at home against TCU. The Sooners are showing some value here after starting out 1-2 in Big 12 play. They key is both losses came on the road in arguably the two toughest venues in the Big 12 at Kansas and Texas Tech. Both of which the Sooners could have easily won with a couple more breaks going their way at the end of the game.
I look for Oklahoma to come out firing here at home against the Horned Frogs. The Sooners are a perfect 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in their 6 home games, where they are outscoring teams 78 to 62. TCU is a quality team, but that 12-2 record has them overvalued here on the road. They just lost at Kansas last time out 77-68, failing to cover as a mere 6.5-point favorite.
Sooners are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team with a winning record, while TCU is 1-5 ATS last 6 after a failed cover. Take Oklahoma!
|01-10-19||Clippers +6 v. Nuggets||100-121||Loss||-105||10 h 50 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Clippers +
This is too good a price to pass up on the Clippers. Denver comes in with the best record in the West and are 16-3 at home. Both of which have them way overvalued right now. That's evident by the fact that the Nuggets are a mere 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
The Clippers won by 21 at home in a recent meeting between these two teams in late December and enter this one having won 3 straight. LA's offense has been one of the best in the league and are in prime form right now, as they are averaging 115.8 ppg and shooting 47% from the field over their last 5 games.
Denver is only giving up 105.5 ppg on the season, but are allowing 111.0 ppg in their last 5. I just don't see the Nuggets pulling away and wouldn't be shocked if the Clippers won this game outright. Take Los Angeles!
|01-10-19||Eastern Illinois +13 v. Jacksonville State||62-69||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Illinois +
Easy play here on the Panthers as a big road dog against the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State. Eastern Illinois is way undervalued right now. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and and 6 of their last 7 overall. A stretch where they have covered 5 of 7, including outright wins as road dogs of 7.5 and 13 at Western Illinois and Bradley.
Jacksonville State is a quality team and have gone 9-2 in their last 11, but they are simply being asked to lay too many points in this one. The Gamecocks are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a conference win and 0-6 ATS last 6 off back-to-back conference wins. Take Eastern Illinois!
|01-10-19||St. Peter's +5.5 v. Fairfield||57-60||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Small Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on St Peters
The Peacocks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Stags. While St. Peter's comes winless away from home at 0-8, I'm confident they get their first road win of the season and at worst keep it within the number. A big reason for that is Fairfield has little to no home court edge here, as they are 1-4 at home this season.
The Stags like to shoot it from deep, as they average 26 3-pointers a game. They area also a poor rebounding team, as they are getting beat on by an average of 5 boards/game. The Peacocks are 33-14 ATS last 47 road games (at least 15 games into the season) when facing a team that averages 21 or more 3-point attempts. They are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games (at least 15 games into the season) against teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Take St. Peter's!
|01-09-19||Bulls +9.5 v. Blazers||112-124||Loss||-103||11 h 13 m||Show|
4* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bulls +
Love the value here with Chicago as a near double-digit road dog against the Blazers. The Bulls come in having lost 4 straight, the most recent being a non-cover in a 7-point loss at home to the Nets. However, they are a strong 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games and haven't dropped back-to-back games against the spread since the middle of December.
Chicago is also coming in well-rested, as they have had the last 2 days off and will be playing only their 4th game in 10 days. Portland on the other hand is playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and it would be really easy for the Blazers to not take this Bulls team seriously. Chicago's got some nice young pieces and while they likely won't be able to win, I like them to keep it closer than expected.
Blazers are just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a SU win. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Chicago!
|01-09-19||CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside||84-83||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Money Line SMASH on Northridge
I like the Matadors to go into UC Riverside and get a win tonight. CS-Northridge has been a great team to back on the road once conference play rolls around. The Matadors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games in the month of January.
On the flip side of this, UC Riverside is just 1-9 ATS last 10 with a line of +3 to -3 and 0-8 in this spot at home. The Highlanders are also a mere 2-15 on the money line in their last 17 vs a team with a losing record. Take CS Northridge!
|01-08-19||Nuggets v. Heat -1||103-99||Loss||-110||9 h 47 m||Show|
3* NBA Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Heat -
The books are begging the public to play the Nuggets here at basically a pick'em at Miami, which makes this an easy play for me on the Heat. A closer look and you can see why Miami is favored.
While the Heat come in off an ugly 106-82 loss at Atlanta, that was more of them just not showing up to play against an inferior team. It happens. I'm more focused on the fact that Miami is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
The other key here is this is just a really tough spot for the Nuggets. Denver had to play last night in Houston, which they lost 125-113. Simply playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back would be tough, but this is also the Nuggets 5th game since the calendar turned to 2019. It's also worth pointing out Denver hasn't played consecutive games in the same spot since a 4-game homestand back in early December.
Nuggets are also 1-6 ATS last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS last 11 off a SU loss. Miami is 5-1 ATS last 6 off a loss, 8-2 ATS last 10 vs a team from the West and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Miami!
|01-08-19||Manhattan +6.5 v. Marist||63-78||Loss||-109||8 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan +
I like the value here with the Jaspers as a decently priced road dog against the Red Foxes. Manhattan snapped a 8-game losing streak with a 90-80 upset win at home over Niagara last time out and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright.
Marist just lost at home to Canisius as a favorite and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Adding to this is a great system in play that suggest a fade of the Red Foxes. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset loss at home to a conference opponent are a mere 32-65 (33%) ATS since 1997 when it's a match of two bad teams (win percent between 20% and 40%). Take Manhattan!
|01-07-19||Magic v. Kings -5.5||95-111||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Kings -
Big time value here with Sacramento laying a short number at home against the Magic. Kings come in having lost 4 straight, including 3 in a row at home, but those 3 home losses came against the Warriors, Nuggets and Blazers. Sacramento could have easily won all 3, as all 5 defeats were by 4-points or less.
Despite not winning the game, I think the Kings gained a lot of confidence from their strong showing last time out against Golden State. I look for a big effort here to get back in the win column and the Magic come in having lost 7 of their last 10 and are playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set. Take Sacramento!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||16-44||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
3* Clemson/Alabama ATS Winner on Clemson +
I'm not convinced Alabama is the better team in this matchup. I think Clemson is every bit on the same level as the Crimson Tide. However, I think the public perception all season has been this Alabama team is the best Nick Saban has fielded since he took over and there's no team that can hang with them.
I think that's definitely playing into this inflated number that the Crimson Tide are being asked to lay. This is now the 4th straight time that these two teams have met i the playoffs. While Alabama is 2-1 SU, Clemson is 2-1 ATS.
Not only do I see a ton of value with Clemson getting almost a touchdown, I like how the Tigers matchup with Alabama. I think this game will come down to which defense can impose it's will the most and I think with that defensive line of the Tigers, they will be the ones who control this game. Take Clemson!
|01-07-19||Niagara +3 v. Fairfield||Top||59-77||Loss||-109||8 h 54 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara +
Love the value here with the Purple Eagles as a dog against the Stags. Fairfield is getting way too much credit on their home floor. The Stags are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games this season.
Niagara is simply the better team and my numbers say they should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS last 6 after two or more losses.
On top of all that, we find a great long-term system backing the away team. Road teams of +3 to -3 that have allowed 75 or more points in 2 straight games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that just allowed 85 or more. Take Niagara!
|01-06-19||Nebraska v. Iowa +2.5||84-93||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa +
Easy play here for me on the Hawkeyes as a home dog against Nebraska. Iowa comes in off an ugly 16-point loss at Purdue, but this is a team that will likely struggle to win a lot of games on the road in conference play. Keep in mind Iowa lost by 22 at Michigan State earlier this season and 3 days later whooped in-state rival ISU 98-84 at home.
The Hawkeyes are simply a different team at home and it doesn't get much bigger for this for Iowa this early in the season. The Hawkeyes have started 0-3 in Big Ten play. They have to have this game. I like the Cornhuskers, but they have lost each of their first two Big Ten road games and playing their second straight away from home, as they were at Maryland on Wednesday. Take Iowa!
|01-06-19||Temple v. Wichita State||Top||85-81||Loss||-110||7 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Wichita
I love the value here with the Shockers at a pick'em on their home floor. I think we are going to get a huge effort here from Wichita State coming off a couple of road losses to VCU and Memphis. Shockers didn't play up to their potential in either game.
Temple is a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now and this is not an easy spot for the Owls. Temple just played at UCF on Wednesday and have played a mere 1 home game since Nov. 16.
Shockers are 5-1 at home this season and their defense has been outstanding at home. Wichita State is holding teams to 63.8 ppg and 40.1% shooting at home. I like the Shockers to not just win, but win comfortably. Take Wichita State!
|01-06-19||Nets v. Bulls +2.5||117-100||Loss||-110||6 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Bulls +
I think Chicago is one of the more underrated teams in the NBA right now, as they are just now getting healthy and have some nice young talent on the roster. They basically played the first third of the season without 3 of their best players in Markkanen, Dunn and Portis. With Portis listed probable, that's a huge boost to the bench.
Not only do I like this spot for Chicago to play well, but I think this is a bit of a trap game for Brooklyn. The Nets have been playing well and already beat the Bulls in Chicago earlier this season. With a game Boston tomorrow night looming, really easy for Brooklyn to come out flat, especially on the road. Take Chicago!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||78 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens -
This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards.
The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games.
I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore!
|01-05-19||Rockets v. Blazers +1.5||101-110||Win||100||12 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Blazers +
The Rockets have been on quite a run and the public will be inclined to fade Portland in the second game of a back-to-back. However, I think it's Houston that will have the more difficult time showing up for this game.
Last time out the Rockets rallied from 20 down to stun the Warriors 135-134 in overtime during a nationally televised game on TNT. Six different players payed at least 30 minutes for Houston, including 40+ from Harden, Rivers and Capela. Even with a day off Friday, I just don't see the Rockets having the energy needed to win at a difficult place like Portland, especially with the Blazers highly motivated for a win off an upset loss on their home floor. Take Portland!
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2 v. Cowboys||22-24||Push||0||61 h 58 m||Show|
4* NFL Wild Card Saturday VEGAS INSIDER on Seahawks +
I really like Seattle to go into Dallas and get a win, as I think they are the better team. I just think the Seahawks have been flying way under the radar. This is a team that lost a lot of big names on defense and were expected by many to be the 3rd best team in their own division.
Despite having an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson, Seattle has transformed their style of play back to a more physical ground and pound team. The Seahawks led the league in rushing at 160 ypg and with opposing teams having to focus so much on the run, Wilson has a 35-7 TD-INT ratio and his 65.6% completion rate is his best since 2015.
Sure, Dallas is a great story with how they turned around their season after the trade for Amari Cooper. I'm not saying Cooper doesn't make them a better team, I just think they aren't as good as you think. Dallas took advantage of a bad NFC East (5-1 division record).
More than anything, I don't trust Dak Prescott to make the big plays when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. I also think that ability Dallas' defense has of putting pressure on the quarterback is negated with how mobile Wilson is and their ability to run the ball. Take Seattle!
|01-05-19||Kansas v. Iowa State -1.5||60-77||Win||100||7 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -
All you need to know is the No. 5 team in the country is a dog against a team that's not even ranked in the Top 25. The books don't make mistakes and while it's not a full proof system, these types of plays where the line looks way off cash the majority of the time.
A closer look at Kansas' resume definitely suggests the Jayhawks could be overrated right now. They have been very fortunate in close games. Their only loss of the season also came in their only true road game. There's not many places tougher to play on the road than Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum.
Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 at home and their only two losses are to Arizona and Iowa. They just won at Oklahoma St, despite shooting 36.4% from the field. They also had a bunch of guys out early, which is why they are flying under the radar right now. Take Iowa State!
|01-05-19||Kentucky v. Alabama +5||75-77||Win||100||3 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama +
Big time value here with the Crimson Tide as a decently priced home dog against the Wildcats. No surprise here that Kentucky is being way overvalued by the books off a couple of impressive wins over North Carolina and Louisville.
If anything, that has the Wildcats primed for a letdown. Every SEC teams lays it on the line when Kentucky comes to town and the Crimson Tide roll into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Alabama has won 4 straight with impressive wins over both Arizona and Penn State.
Crimson Tide are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record. I see this one coming right down to the wire with a decent chance the home team pulls off the upset. Take Alabama!
|01-05-19||Fairfield +4.5 v. Iona||87-94||Loss||-107||3 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Fairfield +
Easy play here on the Stags as a road dog here against the Gaels. Iona is just 3-9 on the season and have been as bad as it gets with a 1-10 ATS mark. That was with them covering in their last game. Fairfield has covered 4 straight and are a strong 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games so far this season.
Stags have covered 7 of their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record, while the Gaels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-7 ATS last 8 off a SU win. Take Fairfield!
|01-04-19||Clippers -4 v. Suns||121-111||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE WEEK on Clippers -
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Clippers. Los Angeles comes in having lost two straight and are simply undervalued here as a short road favorite to the Suns. I expect a big effort here from the Clippers and while Phoenix has been playing better, they are no match for a motivated LA side.
Suns simply don't have a home court edge. Phoenix is 5-15 at home this season. They have also failed to cover 11 of their last 12 home games on a Friday night and are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 with a total north of 230. Clippers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 division games and 14-4 in their last 18 played on Friday. Take Los Angeles!
|01-03-19||Loyola Marymount -2.5 v. Pepperdine||62-77||Loss||-105||13 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola -
No need to overthink this one. The Lions are the better team and this is simply too good a price to pass up. Loyola-Marymount comes in at 12-2 with upset wins over UNLV, Georgetown and CS-Fullerton.
The Waves had lost 5 of 6 before a cupcake win at home over Alabama A&M. Pepperdine is projected by many to be the worst team in the WCC. The Waves are getting way too much respect because of this game being on their home court. Pepperdine is a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and the Lions are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Waves. Take Loyola-Marymount!
|01-03-19||San Diego -5.5 v. Santa Clara||56-68||Loss||-105||13 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAB West Coast Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego -
The Toreros should have zero problem cashing in a cover here as a short road favorite against the Broncos. San Diego was expected to be one of the top teams in the WCC and so far they look the part. The Toreros have opened up 11-4.
Santa Clara is just 8-6, despite playing a weaker schedule. This is also a big let down spot for the Broncos, who just beat Washington State as a 8-point dog. Santa Clara is just 4-10-1 ATS 15 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Toreros have covered 11 of their last 14 trips to Santa Clara and the road team has gone a remarkable 23-4-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Take San Diego!
|01-03-19||Canisius +3 v. Marist||Top||75-72||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
5* MAAC College Hoops GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius +
The books have completely missed the mark here. My ratings say the Golden Griffens, despite their 3-8 record, should be favored in this matchup against 5-7 Marist.
Canisius has played a brutal schedule to this point and it simply has them way undervalued here. We just saw this team win outright as a dog at Elon and cover as a 7-point dog at Holy Cross a few days later.
These two have a common opponent in Buffalo and while both loss, the Griffens lost by just 15, where the Red Foxes lost by 27 and managed just 49 points. Last year Canisus won both meetings and have won 4 of the last 5.
Golden Griffins are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the MAAC. Take Canisius!
|01-02-19||Seton Hall v. Xavier -3.5||80-70||Loss||-109||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Xavier -
The Musketeers came into this season way overvalued by the books, but I think the public has caught on and the value is now back with Xavier. This is definitely a favorable price to be getting the Musketeers on their home floor, where they have gone 7-1 to start the season and the lone loss was to a really good Wisconsin team early on.
Seton Hall comes in riding a 6-game winning streak, which is definitely keeping this line lower than it should be. What gets overlooked is 4 of the 6 wins came by 6-points or less and while they have won 6 straight they are just 2-4 ATS during this stretch.
Pirates most recently won 76-74 at home over St. John's and that's worth noting, as Seton Hall is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 off a conference win by 3-points or less. Musketeers enter off a 74-65 win at DePaul as a 2-point dog and are a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset win as a conference dog. Take Xavier!
|01-02-19||Nebraska v. Maryland||72-74||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland
I really like what I have seen from this young Terps team. Maryland is led by junior Anthony Cowan, but the rest of the key contributors are sophomores and freshmen. The Terps are 10-3 and will be a tough place for any team in the Big Ten to get a win.
Nebraska comes in at 11-2 and ranked No. 24 in the country, but I don't think they are any better than this Maryland squad. Cornhuskers have some nice wins, but they also lost by 18 to Texas Tech on a neutral site and by 7 as 4-point road favorite at Minnesota.
Terps come into this game having covered 5 of their last 6 and are a dominant 11-2 ATS in home games under Mark Turgeon when they enter the contest having covered 4 of their last 5. Take Maryland!
|01-01-19||Washington +7 v. Ohio State||23-28||Win||100||419 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Rose Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +
I just don't see the Buckeyes being that much better than the Huskies. Ohio State is getting all kinds of love because of how they finished the year, absolutely destroying rival Michigan at home to win the Big Ten East and then crushing Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. All of that is great, but it didn't get the Buckeyes into the playoffs.
Playing on New Year's Day is great, but in Columbus their expectation is to win it all every year and they certainly thought this year's team was capable of a championship. I just think this is a bit of a letdown for the Buckeyes. Plus you got all the distractions with Urban Meyer stepping down as head coach.
Even with all that, no one is picking the Huskies to cover, let along win the game. Washington didn't quite live up to the hype this season, but I think they are going to relish the opportunity to play an elite team like the Buckeyes and use it as a measuring stick going into next year. The Huskies have the defense to keep Haskins and that high-powered Ohio State offense in check and this Buckeyes defense has been vulnerable. This is simply too many points. Take Washington!
|01-01-19||LSU v. Central Florida +7.5||Top||40-32||Loss||-105||433 h 20 m||Show|
5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida +
Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences.
This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve.
UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores.
I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF!
|12-31-18||Michigan State +2 v. Oregon||6-7||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF RedBox Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State +
No one wants anything to do with backing this Spartans team with how they struggle to score against a NFL-caliber quarterback in Oregon's Justin Herbert. I believe it's created big time value here with Michigan State.
I think you could argue that the Spartans are the more talented team, have the better coach and play in the tougher conference. The one thing Oregon has an edge in is quarterback. I just don't think it's enough given the matchup.
Michigan State has faced the likes of Trace McSorely, Dwayne Haskins and Shea Patterson in the Big Ten. They aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Ducks. Those that think it will be easy for Oregon to move the ball are wrong.
The key here is while Oregon's defense has improved over the last couple of years, this is a defense that a limited Michigan State offense can have success against. All the players have been hearing is how bad the offense is. I would expect them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and surprise some people. The most important thing is they should be able to run the football. It might not be pretty, but I'm confident the Spartans win this one outright. Take Michigan State!
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +7 v. Cincinnati||31-35||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Military Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR on Va Tech +
I really like the value here with the Hokies getting a touchdown against the Bearcats. Virginia Tech showed they wanted to be in a bowl game by winning their final two games after a 4-6 start. Few teams were hit harder with injuries this year and not many were as young and inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball.
The month between off to prepare and get guys healthy will pay off big for Bud Foster's defense and I'm confident they will be able to slow down a pretty average Cincinnati offense. The Bearcats only averaged 25.3 ppg on the road. I also think Cincinnati is no where close to as good as people think. They won 10-games, but the schedule couldn't have been much easier. It's also worth noting the Bearcats are a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 bowl games. Take Virginia Tech!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-103||53 h 38 m||Show|
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings -
Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers.
You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend.
While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field.
Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota!
|12-30-18||49ers v. Rams -9.5||32-48||Win||100||53 h 37 m||Show|
3* NFC West PLAY OF THE DAY on Rams -
Even with star running back Todd Gurley not available for this game, I'm confident the Rams are going to not only beat the 49ers at home in Week 17, I think they are going to cruise to blowout win.
This game just means too much to LA. A win here and they get the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. A loss and they could be playing next weekend in the Wild Card round. I think we saw the sense of urgency show up in last week's game agains the Cardinals, which they rolled to a 31-9 win.
As for Gurley not playing. Sure that's a big blow, but with all the attention the Rams passing game gets, there's going to be holes to run the ball. Gurley didn't play against Arizona and they had 269 yards on 41 attempts (6.6 yards/carry). C.J. Anderson came in and put up 167 yards in his first game with the team.
49ers are going to play hard, but that simply won't be enough on the road. They just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take Los Angeles!
|12-30-18||Drexel +14 v. Hofstra||75-89||Push||0||6 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel +
I love the value here with the Dragons as a double-digit dog against the Pride. I just think because Hofstra has the better record at 11-3, are 8-0 at home, and come in riding a 8-game winning streak, we are seeing them way overvalued in this matchup.
Drexel is just 6-8, but they have played the tougher schedule and while they aren't as talented as the Pride, they are more than capable of keeping this close. This has also been a good time to fade Hoftra. They are are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home off a conference win by 10 or more and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in back-to-back games. Take Drexel!
|12-30-18||Jaguars +7 v. Texans||3-20||Loss||-115||49 h 12 m||Show|
4* AFC South GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +
I like the value here with Jacksonville getting a touchdown against the Texans. Houston is way overvalued here because the perception is that because they are the only team with something to play for, they will be the only ones that show up for this game.
I think that is exactly why the Jaguars are going to show up here. They would love nothing more than to play spoiler against a division rival. While they can't keep the Texans from making the playoffs, they can knock them out of the top spot in the AFC South.
I also think it's huge that Jacksonville is going back to Blake Bortles. I get he's not very good and likely won't be with the team after this game, but he gives them the best chance to win. If the Jags were throwing in the towel on the season and didn't want to go out with a victory, they wouldn't go back to Bortles.
I also think the Texans aren't nearly as good as what people think. They are only outgaining opponents by 5.9 yards/game and haven't exactly played the toughest of schedules. Despite Jacksonville's poor record, they are still outgaining teams by 4.9 yards/game.
Jags are 8-1 ATS last 9 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams scoring 24 or more points/game and Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the season over the last 3 years. Take Jacksonville!
|12-29-18||Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -5||56-71||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on La Tech -
This is too good a price to pass up on the Bulldogs at home in their conference opener against the Golden Eagles. Louisiana Tech comes in having won 6 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Bulldogs have absolutely dominated teams at home, as they are averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg, while only giving up 69.9 ppg.
I just see no way Southern Miss can keep pace offensively. The Golden Eagles are a good defensive team, but they are only scoring 64.0 ppg away from home. Last 34 times Southern Miss has been a dog of 3.5 to 6 points they have only covered 10. Eagles are also 0-6 ATS last 6 road games vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -11||3-30||Win||100||364 h 4 m||Show|
4* CFB Playoffs N Dame/Clemson VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -
I got no problem here laying the double-digits with Clemson against Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. I think people are sleeping on this Tigers team. They aren't just elite defensively, but they are elite offensively since they put in Trevor Lawrence at quarterback.
The suspension of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is getting a lot of publicity and is a big loss, but I don't think it's going to dramatically effect Clemson's ability to slow down the Notre Dame offense. The Tigers still got 3 future NFL draft picks playing in this game on the defensive line and I expect them to make like miserable for Ian Book.
There's also a big amount of skepticism for me when it comes to Notre Dame. It's not that I don't think the Irish are a good team, I just think the cards fell their way this season with so many typically good programs on their schedule having down years. I also just don't trust Brian Kelly and his ability to get his team ready for a big game.
I just don't see Notre Dame being able to keep pace with this Clemson offense. The Irish haven't seen anything even close to what they will see from the Tigers offense. Take Clemson!
|12-28-18||Iowa State +3.5 v. Washington State||26-28||Win||100||327 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Alamo Bowl NO-BRAINER on Iowa State +
I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one, but Washington State is getting love because they come in ranked No. 13 in the country. I get it, but I just think the Cyclones are without a doubt the better team here.
The Pac-12 has been a joke in bowl games and I really question how motivated the Cougars are to play this game. Washington State was a win at home over rival Washington in the finale away from playing for a Pac-12 title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. Cougars are also 1-3 in bowl games under head coach Mike Leach and they have been favored in all 4.
Iowa State was a win over Texas away from a spot in the Big 12 title game and have a chance here to reach 9 wins for the first time in almost 40 years. I really like their head coach Matt Campbell and believe they got one of the best kept secrets in the country in quarterback Brock Purdy. Take Iowa State!
|12-28-18||Nets v. Hornets -4.5||87-100||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
4* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Hornets -
This is an easy play for me on Charlotte. These two teams just played against each other on Wednesday at Brooklyn, which the Nets won 134-132. It was Brooklyn's 9th win in their last 10 games.
As tempting as it might be to take the points with the Nets, the team that lost the first meeting in these home-and-home matchups almost always has the edge in the second meeting. Not to mention the Hornets are a completely different team at home, where they are 12-7, compared to 4-10 on the road. Nets are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Take Charlotte!
|12-28-18||Towson -2.5 v. Elon||77-60||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Towson -
The Tigers are showing big time value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Phoenix. Both teams have just 4-wins on the season, but Towson is playing the better basketball and have also played the tougher schedule.
The Tigers won't be looking past Elon this time, as they were upset last year at home as a 9-point favorite by the Phoenix. Towson has covered 5 of their last 7 and are use to playing away from home, as 9 of their first 12 have been on the road.
This one should come down to defense and the Tigers being able to get stops. Elon is giving up 82.3 ppg on their home floor. Phoenix are also just 7-16 ATS last 23 as a dog and 4-12 ATS last 16 with a line of +3 to -3. Take Towson!
|12-28-18||Drexel +11.5 v. Northeastern||83-93||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Drexel +
I absolutely love the value here with the Dragons as a double-digit dog against the Huskies. Northeastern has been way overvalued by the books in 2018 and that's evident by the fact that they are just 4-7 ATS overall, including a 1-3 ATS mark at home. They come in just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9.
Dragons can light up the scoreboard, as they come in averaging 79.5 ppg. That's worth noting, as that should allow them to keep it close and we see that Northeastern is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs teams who average 77 or more points/game.
There's also a big time system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points, who are coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points and facing an opponent that has scored 30 or less in the 1st half of their last two are 65-29 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Drexel!
|12-28-18||James Madison +8 v. William & Mary||Top||74-79||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +
The Dukes should have zero problem here covering on the road against the Tribe. James Madison comes in off an ugly 75-48 loss at Fordham as a mere 3.5-point dog and that's definitely playing into this inflated number on William & Mary.
It's been a wise move to jump on the Dukes in this spot, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 20 points or more.
We are also talking about a William & Mary team that has only won 4 games all season. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents. The Dukes are 1-2 vs those teams and the Tribe are 0-3.
William & Mary is also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning straight up record and the Dukes are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs a team from the CAA. Take James Madison!
|12-28-18||Syracuse +1.5 v. West Virginia||34-18||Win||100||213 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Camping World Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +
The Orange should have no problem taking down West Virginia. The Mountaineers are going to be playing without their best player in star quarterback Will Grier. They are also going to be without their left tackle. The fact that Grier isn't playing, speaks volumes to how little this game means to these players for West Virginia.
Syracuse was one of the surprise teams in the ACC and were clearly motivated to get to a bowl for the first time under head coach Dino Babers. Orange also haven't been to a bowl since 2013. This game means a lot these players and Syracuse now has a massive edge at quarterback with Eric Dungey. West Virginia won't be able to keep pace.
Mountaineers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 bowl games, so clearly this program doesn't value these games like others. Take Syracuse in what should be a blowout!
|12-27-18||Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Baylor||38-45||Loss||-105||321 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Texas Bowl ATS DESTROYER on Vanderbilt -
I think we are getting some really good value here on the Commodores as a small favorite against the Bears. I don't think there's any question here who the better team is. Baylor is a great story going from winning 1-game last year to making a bowl, but they really didn't beat anyone. Their two best wins were at home against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech late in the year.
The win over the Cowboys came in a perfect spot, as OK State was off a thrilling 38-35 win over then No. 6 Texas and had rival Oklahoma on deck. The win over the Red Raiders came in the finale and Texas Tech closed out the season 5 straight losses and it looked like they threw in the towel after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma and Texas.
Vanderbilt gets overlooked because they are considered one of the worst programs in the SEC, but this team is a lot better than it gets credit for. They won 3 of their final 4 just to make a bowl and haven't won a bowl game since 2013 (only second bowl trip in the last 5 years). They are also the much more physical team and should dominate the line of scrimmage here on both sides of the ball. Take Vanderbilt!
|12-27-18||Knicks +14.5 v. Bucks||96-112||Loss||-107||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +
New York is showing exceptional value here in this quick rematch from Christmas Day. The public perception will be that the Bucks just won by 14 at New York two days ago, so why wouldn't they win by more than that at home. It just doesn't work like that in the NBA.
If anything, I think that blowout win by Milwaukee will make it hard for them to get up for this game, as they have to feel like they just need to show up to get a win. Not to mention the value we are getting at this price, simply needing the Knicks to lose by 14 or less.
Road underdogs who are a bad team (25% to 40% win percentage) have hit 58% of the time the last 5 seasons when revenging a loss. Knicks are also 22-11 ATS last 33 when revenging a home loss. Take New York!
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4||3-35||Win||100||299 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Pinstripe Bowl ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin +
There's a lot to like about the Badgers as a dog here against the Hurricanes. It's amazing that despite how disappointing a season Miami has had, they are still overvalued. If it wasn't for Pitt having already locked up the ACC Coastal and resting guys for the ACC title game, Miami likely would have finished the year 1-5 with their only win against a banged up Virginia Tech team.
I also just think there's a clear lack of motivation here by Miami. You got starting quarterback N'Kosi Perry being benched for Malik Rosier. All-American defensive tackle Gerald Willis is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
I really think the loss of Willis is going overlooked, as his absence is going to have a huge impact on this game. Wisconsin is a running team and have one of the best backs in the country in Jonathan Taylor. Willis wasn't just an elite talent, but he made all the guys around him better because of all the attention he was given. I just don't see the Hurricanes being able to slow this Badgers offense down.
Lastly, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is a perfect 3-0 in bowl games with the Badgers, including a 34-24 win over Miami in last year's Orange Bowl. Take Wisconsin!
|12-26-18||Pacers v. Hawks +8||129-121||Push||0||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Hawks +
This is way too many points for the Pacers to be laying on the road against a Hawks team that is playing arguably it's best basketball of the season right now.
Atlanta has won 3 straight, including back-to-back wins on the road over New York and Detroit. Confidence can do wonders for a young team like the Hawks and they have to be itching to get back on the court and take on a good Pacers team.
Indiana has been playing well of late, but I just have to wonder how motivated the Pacers are going to be in their first game back, the day after Christmas, against a bad team like the Hawks.
Note that Indiana was a 11.5-point home favorite against these Hawks back on Nov. 17th. That line suggest that had the two played in Atlanta on that day the line would have been closer to 5.
Hawks are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Pacers are 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Atlanta!
|12-26-18||Raptors v. Heat +4.5||106-104||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat +
The books are begging for you to lay the short number here with Toronto, but the sharp money is on the red-hot Heat. A lot of people probably aren't aware of just how well Miami has been playing. They have won 5 straight and 9 of their last 12 overall.
This team is playing with a ton of confidence and to them this is going to be one of those "measuring stick" games, where they see how they stack up against the perceived best team in the Eastern Conference right now. I just don't think the game means that much to Toronto, who is not only a little upset they weren't playing on Christmas Day, but also got a lot of guys banged up.
Adding to this is a great system in play. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December are an amazing 43-18 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when they come in having played 4 or fewer games in 10 days.
|12-25-18||Bucks v. Knicks +10||109-95||Loss||-105||14 h 28 m||Show|
4* Bucks/Knicks Side Winner on Knicks +
I love the value here with the Knicks as a double-digit dog and this game staying well UNDER the mark on the total.
New York is way undervalued here because of the fact that they have lost 4 straight and are just 1-9 in their last 10. They have been competitive in a lot of these losses and we know we are going to get a max effort here at home against a team like the Bucks.
These two teams have already played twice this year and both times the Knicks have kept it within single-digits. In fact, they won outright earlier this month at home as a 8-point dog.
That last meeting was very high-scoring, which is why we are seeing such a high total here. There's just a different defensive intensity that teams play with on Christmas Day. I also think this early start time will have both offenses struggling to get going. Take New York & UNDER!
|12-24-18||Broncos v. Raiders +3||14-27||Win||100||81 h 50 m||Show|
4* MNF AFC WEST GAME OF THE WEEK on Raiders +
I really like the value here with Oakland getting points. This is going to be a really tough game for the Broncos to get up for. Denver just had their playoff hopes put to rest in a crushing 17-16 home loss to the Browns in Week 15.
I just think it's asking a lot for them to show up and play their best on the road against a team as bad as Oakland. Not to mention they can't exactly be thrilled with being the only team that will be away from home on Christmas Eve.
The here to backing Oakland is we have seen this team to continue to play hard down the stretch. I'm pretty confident Jon Gruden will have the troops fired up for a division rival on Monday Night Football.
Broncos are also just 4-10 ATS last 14 vs a team with a losing record, 3-12 ATS last 15 off a game where they didn't cover and 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 on MNF. Home team in the series is 4-1 last 5. Take Oakland!
|12-23-18||Clippers +10.5 v. Warriors||127-129||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Clippers +
I like the value here with the Clippers as a double-digit dog against the defending champs. This game simply means a lot more to LA than it does Golden State. There's only a few games during the regular-season that will get the juices flowing for the Warriors.
One of those is Christmas Day, when they host LeBron James and the new-look Lakers. Even though they lost 121-116 to the Clippers in LA back on 11/12, I have a hard time believing Golden State is even the slightest bit concerned about the Clippers being the team that dethrones them in the West.
I actually think there's a decent shot LA wins this game outright, but all we need is for them to keep it within single digits. Clippers are 15-5 ATS lats 20 vs a division opponent and 15-4 ATS last 19 road games after covering 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles!
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints -5.5||28-31||Loss||-110||53 h 1 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Saints -
I think now is the ideal time to jump on New Orleans. While the Saints are 2-1 in their last 3 games, this team hasn't had the same look to it. They had their long winning streak snapped in a 13-10 loss at Dallas. They had to rally from double-digits to beat Tampa Bay on the road and then squeaked out a 12-9 win at Carolina.
That was just a really tough stretch for New Orleans. Their loss against Dallas was their third game in a span of just 12 days. They didn't get a breather after that, as they had to play their next two on the road. I think playing at home is going to bring the best out of this team and few teams have stepped up their game better than the Saints at home.
New Orleans is 25-5 ATS in their last 30 home games vs a team with a winning road record (usually top teams are the only ones who win more than they lose away from home). Steelers are off a win over New England at home, but only managed to score 17 points and will not have James Conner. They could also be without wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Saints are playing lights out defensively and I just don't see Big Ben with how he struggles on the road, keeping pace with Brees and company. Take New Orleans!
|12-23-18||Packers v. Jets +2.5||44-38||Loss||-115||146 h 6 m||Show|
4* NFL Jets/Packers ATS Winner on Jets +
Green Bay shouldn't be a favorite on the road against New York and the books have set the total way too high.
The Packers lost 24-17 at Chicago last week. A game if they had won, would have put them in a position to still have a shot at the playoffs. Now these last two games mean absolutely nothing and that can't be an easy pill to swallow when you have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback. It's Super Bowl or bust with that kind of talent behind center.
I know Rodgers is playing and the Packers are saying all the right things, like they are going to give these last two their best shot, but I'm not buying it for a second. I think the only thing on the mind for a lot of these players is getting this game over with so they can get home to their families for Christmas.
The Jets also don't have anything to play for, but that was kind of to be expected with a rookie quarterback. There's plenty of incentive for New York to try and build some momentum for next year in these final few games. They certainly have been playing hard of late. They really should be riding a 3-game winning steak. They had a 13-point 2nd half lead in a 4-point loss to the Titans, beat Buffalo 27-23 a couple weeks back and last week gave the Texans all they could handle.
I just think this is a great spot for the Jets to get a win at home in what is likely going to be an ugly grind it out kind of game. Keep in mind that even with Rodgers the Packers offense has struggled, scoring 17 in 3 of their last 4.
Jets are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 home games after playing their previous game at home and a 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games when coming off a home loss. UNDER is 6-2 in the Packers last 8 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take New York & UNDER!
|12-23-18||Vikings v. Lions +6||Top||27-9||Loss||-102||51 h 37 m||Show|
5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions +
We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy.
I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason.
Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD.
Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit!
|12-23-18||Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins||17-7||Win||100||50 h 36 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Jags +
There's no question the Jags have struggled to come to terms with the disappointment of how this season went, but I think losing at home to a Redskins team that was decimated with injuries and had Josh Johnson at quarter will serve as a wake-up call and we will get a big effort here on the road against a team from their same home state.
Miami shouldn't be laying more than a field goal here. The Dolphins are coming off an ugly 41-17 loss to the Vikings, where they gave up 220 yards rushing. The perception here is that Miami is still fighting, but the reality is they got no chance and they know it. I like Jacksonville to win this one outright.
We also have a great system in play backing a Jaguars cover. Road teams in the month of December are 46-17 (73%)ATS when they come in having failed to cover 3 out of their last 4 games.
Adding to this is a system in play going against the Dolphins. Home teams who have given up 25 or more points in back-to-back games are a mere 19-44 (30%) ATS when facing a team coming off a loss by 6 points or less. Take Jacksonville!
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||31-14||Win||100||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* Hawaii Bowl ATS HEAVY HITTER on LA Tech +
I thing the books have completely missed the mark in this one. Hawaii was a great story and got a lot of press early on with their 6-1 start to the season. At the time it looked like they had beat some decent teams, but that turned out to not be the case.
The competition picked up and they went just 2-4 over their final 6 games. Note that all 4 losses came by at least 18 points with a couple that were well over 30. Louisiana Tech is a lot better than their 7-5 record and without a doubt played the tougher schedule and looked better against the better competition they faced.
For me this comes down to defense. Bulldogs are simply going to have the easier time moving the ball. Hawaii gives up on average 35.4 ppg and 439 ypg. They allow on average 10 points/game and 70 yards/game more than what their opponent averages. They give up 5.0 yards/carry vs the run and 8.3 yards/pass attempt.
Louisiana Tech only allowed 23.7 ppg and held their opponents under their season averages for the year. I'm not saying the Bulldogs will shutdown Hawaii and that high-flying passing attack. They will simply be able to get enough stops to win here comfortably. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers -4||22-10||Loss||-109||33 h 57 m||Show|
4* Ravens/Chargers NFL ATS NO-BRAINER on Chargers -
I just think there's a lot of value here with the Chargers only laying 4-points at home against the Ravens. Los Angeles is coming off an impressive 29-28 win at Kansas City and I think most would agree that the Chiefs and Chargers are the class of the AFC right now. Ravens were a 6.5-point dog at KC a couple weeks back and should be at least that here.
Baltimore has won 4 of 5 since turning to Lamar Jackson and are putting up ridiculous rushing numbers during this stretch. What is getting overlooked is the poor defenses (Bengals, Raiders, Falcons, Chiefs & Bucs) they have played during this stretch.
Chargers have held 3 of their previous 4 opponents to 65 or fewer rushing yards. While they likely give up a 100+ here, simply because of how much Baltimore runs and the QB being a big part of the running game, I think they can really create some negative plays early and force Jackson into a lot more 3rd and long situations. As good as Jackson has been running, he's got a long way to go with his arm.
Baltimore has a good defense, but Philip Rivers is playing out of his mind right now and great offense typically beats great defense, especially when the high-powered offense is at home. I just don't see the Ravens being able to keep this within a touchdown. Take Los Angeles!
|12-22-18||Raptors v. 76ers -4.5||101-126||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
4* NBA Atlantic Div GAME OF THE WEEK on Sixers -
Philadelphia should have no problem covering the number at home in a win over the Raptors. Toronto is playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and instead of sitting Khawi Leonard against the Cavs and having him play here, he played vs Cleveland and will take tonight off.
That has to feel like a slap in the face for the 76ers and given some of Toronto's success without Khawi in the lineup, I don't see Philadelphia taking this one lightly at all. The 76ers really need this win, as they are just 4-4 in their last 8 without a real signature win in the process. P
Philadelphia is also out for revenge from two earlier losses to the Raptors this season. Both of those were in Toronto. Note that the 76ers are 15-3 at home compared to 6-9 on the road. Take Philadelphia!
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +2.5||32-42||Win||100||180 h 20 m||Show|
3* Dollar General Bowl Vegas DESTROYER on Troy +
I think there's a ton of value here with the Trojans at basically a pick'em and this game going UNDER the total set here by the books.
Buffalo suffered a crushing 30-29 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, despite having a 29-10 lead at the half. That loss will be a tough one for the Bulls to bounce back from and the even bigger thing is the MAC simply wasn't that good. We already saw Northern Illinois get rolled in their bowl game against UAB.
Troy won at Nebraska and were one of the best bets in the country this year with a 8-3 ATS mark. A big reason for that is their defense, which only gave up 21.2 ppg. I think they have no problem slowing down the high-powered attack of Buffalo.
The Bulls do have a good defense, so I'm expecting Troy to go off, which is why I think there's a big time correlation here with the Trojans and the UNDER
Troy is 12-3-1 ATS last 16 games overall and 42-20-2 ATS last 64 vs a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-18 ATS last 24 off a conference loss by 7 or less and 0-5 ATS last 5 on a neutral site.
UNDER is 10-4 in Buffalo's last 14 off a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a conference loss. UNDER is also 12-4-1 in Trojans last 17 games played on fieldturf. Take Troy & UNDER!
|12-22-18||St. Mary's -2 v. Western Kentucky||68-71||Loss||-105||7 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. Mary's -
St. Mary's should have no problem here leaving with a win at Western Kentucky on Saturday. The Gaels have won 5 of their last 6 and are fres off a 85-56 thrashing of Bucknell, which is worth noting, as St Mary's has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points.
The Hilltoppers have lost 5 of their last 7. Last time they were at home we saw them lose outright 87-81 to Troy as a 9.5-point favorite. WKU is a bad defensive team. They are allowing 77.3 ppg and 47.7% shooting at home this season.
The Gaels average 78.2 ppg and are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep on the year. I just don't see the Hilltoppers being able to keep pace and with this number all we really need is for the Gaels to win outright. Take St. Mary's!
|12-22-18||Georgia +5.5 v. Georgia Tech||70-59||Win||100||4 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +
The Yellow Jackets are getting way too much respect here at home against their in-state rivals. Georgia Tech comes in off an impressive 69-65 win as a 9-point dog at Arkansas, but are still just 2-3 in their last 5, including a 10-point home loss to Gardner Webb.
Georgia has won 3 of their last 4 and covered all 4 during this stretch. The only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a really strong Arizona State team. I know both teams are down from last year, but keep in mind that Georgia has owned this series the last two years. The Bulldogs won 60-43 in 2016 and 80-59 a year ago. We don't even need them to win, just keep it close.
Bulldogs are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as an underdog, while the Yellow Jackets are a mere 1-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Georgia!
|12-21-18||Grizzlies v. Kings -1.5||99-102||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kings -
This is too good a price to pass up on Sacramento at home against a Grizzlies team that has lost it's mojo. Memphis was one of the big surprise teams early on, but things have quickly took a turn for the worst.
The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight and are just 4-10 after starting the year 12-5. They just have a horrible time scoring the basketball. Memphis hasn't eclipsed 100 points in 7 straight games. While they are likely to hit that mark against the Kings given Sacramento's pace of play, I don't see them scoring near enough to have a shot at winning the game.
Kings didn't play any defense in their 132-113 loss at home to the Thunder on Wednesday, so we should get a better effort on that side of the ball. Sacramento is also 11-3 ATS last 14 off a game where they allowed 125+. They are also 8-3 ATS last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Sacramento!
|12-21-18||NC-Wilmington v. Mercer -6.5||73-77||Loss||-105||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Mercer -
The Bears should have zero problem covering this short number at home against the Seahawks. These two teams have a common opponent, as both have played on the road against Georgia State. Mercer lost by 2, while NC-Wilmington lost by 15. I think the line here is closer to what it should be if these two were playing on a neutral court and even then it's a little low.
The big key here is only one of these teams plays defense. Mercer is only giving up 67.4 ppg and that number drops down to 61.6 ppg at home. The Seahawks are allowing 82.3 ppg on the season, as opposing teams are shooting 47% against them. They are losing on average by 10 ppg away from home and this one should be no different. Take Mercer!
|12-21-18||St Bonaventure +6.5 v. Northeastern||59-64||Win||100||3 h 33 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on St. Bonny +
The Huskies are a mere 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games, as the books continue to give them way too much respect. St Bonaventure comes in with a mere 4-7 record and haven't won a game away from home, but this is a team they can easily come away with a win against.
The Bonnies have covered 4 of their last 5 and are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Both of these teams last played on the road against Vermont. St Bonaventure lost 83-76 and Northeastern fell 75-70. Two very similar scores, which is no surprise, as these are two very evenly matched teams.
Keep in mind these two teams played last year about this same time and the Bonnies won 84-65, easily covering as a 8.5-point favorite. Take St. Bonaventure!
|12-20-18||Pepperdine +5.5 v. Long Beach State||66-67||Win||100||13 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE WEEK on Pepperdine +
My projections have Pepperdine winning the game outright, so this is an easy play for me on the Waves as a decently priced dog. Pepperdine comes in at 6-6, but are undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 5 and failing to cover each of their last 4.
Long Beach State is just 3-9 on the season and have no business being this big of a favorite. The 49ers are just 1-6 in their last 7. The play little to no defense, as Long Beach is allowing 79.2 ppg and that's a problem against a Waves team that is scoring 79.2 ppg. Take Pepperdine!
|12-19-18||Warriors v. Jazz +3.5||Top||103-108||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz +
The books are absolutely begging the public to take the Warriors here as a small road favorite and they are doing exactly that (close to 70% action on Golden State). They did the same thing when these two met back in October and the Jazz covered in a painful 124-123 loss as 2.5-point dog.
There's no doubt that Utah has been itching for this rematch after nearly knocking off the defending champs. We are going to get their best effort here. It's hard for Golden State to get up for regular-season games and I have to think they are a bit annoyed that they have this 1-game road trip to Utah before returning home for Christmas (next road game is 12/29).
Not to mention the Warriors aren't just struggling to cover on the road, they are a mere 8-7 straight up away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Utah!
|12-19-18||UCLA +8 v. Cincinnati||64-93||Loss||-109||12 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UCLA +
I really like the value here with the Bruins here. While Cincinnati comes in off a loss at Mississippi State, they are still 9-2 on the season and 6-2 ATS in their last 8. They are still overvalued, as this is too many points for UCLA to be catching.
The Bearcats were only a 2.5-point dog to Mississippi State and lost by 11, shooting just 37.3% from the field. Their other loss this year is a 8-point home defeat to Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite and they shot a mere 27.4% in that game. I just don't think this team is as good as people think, but they went 31-5 last year, so they are getting some love. Take UCLA!
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-100||110 h 37 m||Show|
4* Frisco Bowl Vegas NO-BRAINER on San Diego State +
No way should the Aztecs be getting points against a team from the MAC. I get San Diego State wasn't as good as they have been and closed out the year losing 4 of their last 5, they are still the better team in this fight and I like the fact that they are a dog, as that only adds motivation.
What gets overlooked with San Diego State's poor finish is the injuries this team had to deal with on offense and that 3 of the last 4 losses were by 4-points or less. This wasn't far off from another 10-win team under Rocky Long. They are healthy and matchup extremely well with the Bobcats.
I'm also not convinced Ohio is as good as people think. Sure, they won 5 of their last 6, but the MAC was down this year and we just saw the MAC Champs, Northern Illinois, get annihilated by UAB 37-13 last night. Eastern Michigan also lost to a team from the Sun Belt.
As for the Mountain West, Fresno State won by double-digits over Arizona State and Utah State rolled a good North Texas team 52-13 and the Aggies played the bowl without their head coach. Take San Diego State!
|12-19-18||UC-Santa Barbara v. Nebraska-Omaha +3.5||74-85||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Omaha +
The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Nebraska-Omaha enters with a mere 4-7 record, but they have only played 3 games on their home floor leading up to this contest. They have also played nearly half (5) of their games against Power 5 opponents.
They were able to snap a 4-game skid with a 89-80 win at Idaho as a mere 1-point favorite in their last game and I expect a big time effort here from the Mavericks in their first home game since they hosted and annihilated Montana State 89-65 as a 8-point favorite back on Nov. 24th.
This is a long way from home for the Gauchos and I just think it's a really tough spot for them to play well. I think given that they have won 7 of 8, they might not give the Mavs their full attention, especially given the books made them the favorite. Take Nebraska-Omaha!
|12-18-18||Wizards v. Hawks +4.5||Top||110-118||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
5* NBA Southeast PLAY OF THE MONTH on Hawks +
This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta as a home dog against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the most overvalued teams this season, especially on the road. The Wizards are 4-12 SU and 4-12 ATS in their 16 road games.
I get the Hawks aren't a great team, but no way should Washington be a road favorite. The Wizards come in off what looks like an impressive 128-110 win over the Lakers, but they got a LA team that didn't show up to play on the second night of a back-to-back road set. Prior to that win they had lost 4 straight, including a 15-point loss on the road to the Cavs.
Wizards are 0-9 ATS last 9 road games after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Take Atlanta!
|12-18-18||Xavier +1.5 v. Missouri||56-71||Loss||-109||10 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Xavier +
I like the value here with the Musketeers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. Xavier was way overvalued to start the year and that was evident by their 0-4-1 ATS start.
While the Musketeers have won 5 of their last 6 and are a respectable 4-2 ATS during this run, they are still flying under the radar from their slow start. It's not as bad as it looks. They are 7-4, but the 4 losses have come against Wisconsin, Auburn, San Diego State and Cincinnati.
I don't think Missouri is on the same level as those teams. WE have already seen the Tigers lose at home to Temple. They also lost by 15 to Kansas State and by 17 to ISU. Missouri is just 4-11-1 ATS last 16 non-conference games and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Xavier!
|12-18-18||Appalachian State v. Georgetown -10||73-83||Push||0||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Georgetown -
I got no problem laying double-digits here with the Hoyas at home against the Mountaineers. We can bank on a big effort here from Georgetown after losing their last two, including an upset loss last time out at home against SMU.
They should have no problem bouncing back with a big win. Appalachian State has played 6 road games and lost all 6. The Mountaineers are giving up 85 ppg on the road and the Hoyas are averaging 82.8 ppg at home. Georgetowns defense will be able to limit App St and that's where they will create the separation needed to cover.
Mountaineers are 7-20-2 ATS last 29 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Georgetown!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +6.5||Top||12-9||Win||100||51 h 35 m||Show|
5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers +
This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road.
Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11.
The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game.
It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina!
|12-17-18||SIU-Edwardsville +13.5 v. Drake||66-79||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville +
The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here from the books. Drake should be able to win this game, but it's asking a lot for them to win by 14 or more.
This line is simply inflated due to the fact that the Bulldogs come in having covered 6 straight and SIU Edwardsville a mere 2-5 overall. The Cougars only lost by 5 at Valpo as an almost identical 14.5-point dog. They are 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
There's also a huge system in play favoring a fade of Drake. Home favorites that have won between 60% to 80% of their games and enter having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 are a mere 19-47 (29%) ATS when facing a bad team that's won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take SIU Edwardsville!
|12-17-18||Bucks -3.5 v. Pistons||107-104||Loss||-105||8 h 7 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bucks -
Milwaukee should have no problem covering this short number on the road against the Pistons. Detroit comes in off a upset win at home over the Celtics, but I'm just not buying it as a sign of things to come. Pistons simply had a good night shooting, as they connected on 49% of their attempts.
I don't see the offense being able to match that hot shooting here against a good Milwaukee defense. Bucks have held 4 of their last 6 opponents under 42% from the field and been outstanding this season on that side of the ball against division opponents. Milwaukee is 6-1 in division games and have held their division rivals to just 102.4 ppg and 41.9% shooting.
Pistons are 0-4 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a mere 4-15 ATS last 19 vs strong rebounding teams, who are outrebounding opponents by 3 or more/game. Take Milwaukee!
|12-16-18||Kings v. Mavs -5||120-113||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational NO-BRAINER on Mavs -
This is a great price to back the Mavs at home. Sacramento is getting a lot of love for their recent game agains the Warriors, which they went toe-to-toe with the defending champs in a 130-125 loss at home.
They blew that game. They were up 10 with a little over 3 minutes to play. That's a loss that can linger for days and I just think we see a flat Kings team in this one. Dallas is also a team you don't want to be betting against right now. The Mavs have covered 11 of their last 16. They are also an amazing 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS on their home floor this season.
There's also going to be a different kind of buzz at American Airlines Center, as Dirk Nowitizki will be taking the court for the first time at home this season. Take Dallas!
|12-16-18||Dolphins v. Vikings -7.5||17-41||Win||110||31 h 32 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Vikings -
This is going to seem like way too many points for the Vikings to be laying coming off of back-to-back losses where they offense was non-existent, especially against a Dolphins team that just upset the Patriots.
As most of you are aware, Miami's win over New England was a complete fluke. Very similar to the Vikings last second win over the Saints in last year's playoffs. If you remember back, Minnesota got annihilated the next week by the Eagles. You are on such an emotional high from that miracle win, it becomes near impossible to play up to your true potential the next week.
I also love the move by the Vikings to fire offensive coordinator Jon DeFilippo. That offense had lost it's confidence and a change of scenery could be exactly what they need to turn this thing around. Head coach Mike Zimmer has made it pretty clear there will be a bigger focus on the run, which they did get a little too pass-happy under DeFilippo.
Minnesota also has a dominant defense that is only giving up 19.3 ppg and 270 ypg on their home field. I think they are going to make life miserable on a Miami offense that could must just 175 total yards a couple weeks ago against the Bills.
Dolphins are 2-10 ATS last 12 road games when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 0-6 last 6 road games off a division game. Vikings are 11-3 ATS last 14 home games after the first month of the season. Take Minnesota!
|12-16-18||Redskins v. Jaguars -7.5||16-13||Loss||-100||31 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Jags -
I'm sure a lot of people will have a hard time laying a big number with a Jaguars team that is just 1-8 in their last 9 games. However, this is not so much a play on Jacksonville as it is a play against the Redskins.
Injuries have completely derailed the Redskins chances of winning the NFC East and making the playoffs. Goals that looked very realistic after the team started out 6-3. They are starting their 4th different quarterback. Starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy both suffered season ending injuries. Mark Sanchez was a waste of space and it's now Josh Jackson calling the shots.
It's not just injuries at quarterback, both sides of the ball have been decimated. There's also guys who are playing that aren't happy. It's really a complete mess all-around and I see no why they make a game of it on the road against the Jags. Jacksonville's offense isn't great, but that defense should have a field day here. Take Jacksonville!
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants +1.5||17-0||Loss||-110||19 h 19 m||Show|
3* NFL Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +
I think we are getting some decent value here with the Giants. New York won't have star wide out Odell Beckham Jr. He didn't play last week and the team put up 40 on the Redskins. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley is going to shoulder the load here and I think he's going to be difference maker.
The Titans come in at 7-6 and are in the AFC Wild Card hunt, but I'm just not a big believer in this team. I just don't like teams that have to play perfectly to win ugly and that's really what Tennessee does.
There's also a great system in play here. Home teams in non-conference games are 33-9 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more against a division rival. Take New York!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||19 h 18 m||Show|
4* Packers/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE WEEK on Packers +
This is too many points for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to be getting. Rodgers is at his best when this team needs it the most and Green Bay's backs are firm against the wall. They need to win out to even have a shot at the playoffs, but there is a path for them to sneak in.
I think the firing of Mike McCarthy was a good move. Few head coaches have underachieved more with a talent like Rodgers at quarterback. It certainly felt like Rodgers and him weren't on the same page.
They looked like a different team in the first game after the McCarthy firing, as they cruised to an easy 34-20 win at home against the Falcons, which they led 34-7 going into the 4th quarter.
I'm not saying they win the game outright, but it's definitely in play. Chicago has a great defense, maybe the best in the league, but I still got my concerns with the offense. Trubisky wasn't sharp in his first game back from injury and this Green Bay defense is been solid over the course of the season.
Let's also not forget Rodgers has owned the Bears and he reminded them of that in Week 1, when he guided Green Bay back from a 20-0 deficit in the second half for a 24-23 win. Packers are also 35-19 ATS last 54 road games after failing to cover their previous 2 games. Take Green Bay!
|12-15-18||Denver v. Cal-Irvine -12||52-86||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cal-Irvine -
The Anteaters should have zero problem beating the Pioneers by the number here. UC-Irvine is sitting at 9-2 on the season with an outright win on the road against Texas A&m. Denver is 4-9 an and are simply outclassed here.
These two team played about this time last year and the Anteaters won by 14 on the road, easily covering as a a 5-point dog. Irvine has covered 8 of their last 10 against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from the Summit. Pioneers are 5-16 ATS last 21 in non-conference play. Take UC-Irvine!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns +
Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure.
A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball.
While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland!
|12-15-18||Washington v. Virginia Tech -6.5||61-73||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Virginia Tech -
The Hokies should have zero problem here covering the spread at home against the Huskies. Virginia Tech's only loss on the season is a mere 1-point defeat at Penn State. No surprise, as this is what many thought to be the 4th best team in the ACC behind Duke, UNC and Virginia.
There was some hype with Washington, but the Huskies have struggled to come away with wins when they take a step up in competition. They have lost at Auburn and Gonzaga, as well as a neutral site game against Minnesota.
Note that these two played on a neutral court last year and it wasn't close. The Hokies won 103-79 as a 7-point favorite. They are simply the much better team and what is normally a strong homeport advantage gets even stronger when you factor in how far the Huskies have had to travel for this one.
Washington is 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-13 ATS last 17 vs top caliber teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. Hokies are 13-5 ATS last 18 non-conference and 9-2 ATS last 11 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech!
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