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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-13-17||Cavs -4.5 v. Knicks||Top||104-101||Loss||-110||11 h 38 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -
I believe all the negative talk early with Cleveland has the Cavs showing great value right now and I really like them here as a short road favorite against the Knicks. While Cleveland is just 3-2 in their last 5, they are painfully close to having a 5-game winning streak, as both losses came by 4-points or less and one of those was at red-hot Houston. New York has been playing well here of late, but most of that has come against bad teams. Everyone knows LeBron loves playing at the Garden and there's extra incentive here for the Cavs after that ugly 95-114 loss at home to these Knicks in the most recent meeting. Look for them to make a statement here. Take Cleveland!
|11-13-17||Kings +11.5 v. Wizards||92-110||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Kings +
I like the value here with Sacramento as a double-digit dog against the Wizards on Monday. While Sacramento got annihilated in their last game at the Knicks, they have been playing better lately, securing wins over both the Thunder and 76ers in their last 3 games. I don't think they have enough here to knock off Washington, but I think the Wizards are going to have a tough time getting up for this one against an inferior team with a big division home-and-home series against the Heat on deck. Wizards are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 at home and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a win. Take Sacramento!
|11-13-17||Brown -1.5 v. Quinnipiac||79-72||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAB ATS HEAVY HITTER on Browns -
I cashed in on Quinnipiac in their opener at home against Dartmouth, but I'm going to go against the Bobcats here at home against Brown. The Bobcats were lucky to escape with a win over the Big Green, escaping with a 78-77 win. This is also a spot in which Quinnipiac has not performed well in the past, as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as a dog of 6 points or less. It's also worth pointing out that Brown has 3 returning starters to the Bobcats 2 and the Bears won the head-to-head meeting a season ago. Take Brown!
|11-12-17||Pacific +18.5 v. Stanford||80-89||Win||100||22 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Pacific +
I like the value here with the Tigers catching a big number against the Cardinal. I believe this Pacific team is flying under the radar this season, as they enter year two under former NBA point guard Damion Stoudamire. The Tigers are going to play an up-tempo small-ball/position less basketball that you are seeing in the NBA. While they lost a lot from last year, they will be debuting 3 transfers who should make a big impact in Oregon's Kendall Small, St. Louis' Miles Reynolds and Dugquesne's Tyson Powell.
I believe they have enough fire-power here to keep this well within the number against a Stanford team that only won by 16 against Cal-Poly in their opener. Note that Cal-Poly is expected to finish in the bottom 3 of the Big West this year, so that's not exactly a great team. It's also worth mentioning that the Tigers have thrived in the role of a big dog, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when listed as a road dog of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Pacific!
|11-12-17||Patriots v. Broncos +7.5||Top||41-16||Loss||-105||95 h 26 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos +
I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots.
There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright.
The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver!
|11-12-17||Eastern Washington +10 v. Washington||69-79||Push||0||20 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAB ATS HEAVY HITTER on Eastern Washington
I like the value here with the Eagles catching double-digits against in-state foe Washington on Sunday. The Huskies are in a bit of a transition year here under first year head coach Mike Hopkins, who was a long-time assistant at Syracuse under Jim Boeheim and will bring that same zone attack to Washington. I just think it's going to take some time before they can play the zone at the level needed for it to be effective.
The defense certainly wasn't sharp in their opener, as they gave up 82 points and allowed Belmont to shoot 49% from the field. Eastern Washington won 22 games last year and have 3 returning starters, including a big time scorer in senior Bogdan Bliznyuk, who averaged 20.6 ppg last season. I think the Eagles can not only score enough to keep this close, but wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take Eastern Washington!
|11-12-17||Arkansas-Pine Bluff +18.5 v. Troy State||57-81||Loss||-110||19 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Arkansas Pine Bluff
I like the value here with the Golden Lions catching a big number against the Trojans. Arkansas-Pine Bluff went just 7-25 last year, but I like the direction of this team in 2017 under long-time head coach George Ivy. While they lost their opener to Hawaii, they lost by just 12 as an 18-point dog and did so despite shooting just 37% from the field, while the Warriors connected on 49%. I look for a much better shooting effort here from the Lions.
Troy is a team that is coming off a 22-15 campaign, but I believe it has them overvalued early and it certainly looked to be the case in their opener, as they lost outright to North Dakota as a 7-point favorite. The Trojans likely bounce back with a win here, but I think it's a lot more competitive than the number would suggest. Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff!
|11-12-17||Cowboys v. Falcons -3||7-27||Win||100||58 h 29 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Falcons -
I like the value here with Atlanta laying only a field goal at home against the Cowboys, who won't have star running back Ezekiel Elliott, as he finally has to start serving his suspension. I just don't think the line has been adjusted enough here to make up for his absence. The perception is that Dallas can just plug anyone in at running back and put up big yards on the ground, but we saw in 2015 when they let DeMarco Murray leave the production wasn't the same and didn't pick back up until Zeke arrived.
I think a drop off in the running game is going to have a negative impact not only on the offense, which will face a lot more 3rd and long situations, but also the defense. One of the reasons Dallas defense has played so well is the offense could eat up the clock and keep them fresh. That's bad news for the Cowboys defense, as they go up against an Atlanta offense that isn't as bad as everyone is saying and due for a breakout performance.
Dallas comes in having covered 3 straight, but are just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4 games. Take Atlanta!
|11-12-17||Texans +12 v. Rams||7-33||Loss||-110||74 h 37 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Texans +
I like the value here with the Texans catching double-digits against the Rams. LA is the talk of the NFL right now after their 6-2 start and have quickly become a big public team. That combined with no one wanting to back Houston with Tom Savage at quarterback, has this line inflated. It's a lot harder to win by 10+ in the NFL than people think.
A big reason I like the points here with the Texans is I believe their defense can make life difficult for the Rams offense. Two things LA has done very well early on is pick up a ton of yards after the catch and convert on 3rd down. Houston is near the top of the league in both of those categories defensively. We saw Seattle's stop unit hold the Rams to just 10 points and I think we could see the Texans keep them at least under 20 and I'll take my chances that Savage and the offense can do enough to keep it within the number.
It's also worth noting that playing at home hasn't exactly been an advantage for the Rams, especially when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. LA is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Take Houston!
|11-12-17||Heat v. Pistons -3||103-112||Win||100||12 h 22 m||Show|
3* NBA Oddsmakers ERROR on Pistons -
I like the value here with Detroit laying a short number at home against the Heat. Miami comes in having won 2 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5, but were fortunate to get a win in their last game at Utah, as the Jazz scored just 7-points in the 3rd quarter and a mere 25 in the entire 2nd half of a 84-74 win (Utah led by double-digits at the half).
More than anything, we are going against the Heat in a really tough spot, as Miami will be playing it's 6th and final game of their lengthy 6-game road trip that started back on Nov. 3. I think they are going to be looking more forward to returning home and getting two days off than actually playing this game. Detroit on the other hand is rolling. The Pistons have won 4 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8, which includes 5 straight wins on their home floor. Take Detroit!
|11-12-17||Saints v. Bills +3||47-10||Loss||-110||70 h 23 m||Show|
3* NFL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Bills +
The public is going to be all over the Saints as a short road favorite, but I like the value here with the Bills catching a field goal at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 on the season. Buffalo laid an egg in their last game, losing badly on the road to the Jets on Thursday Night Football. That loss is magnified because it was a prime time game. The road team is at such a huge disadvantage in those Thursday games that I don't think that we should judge this team on that performance. Keep in mind they had gone 4-1 in their previous 5 games.
Not to take anything away from the Saints and their 6-game winning streak, but they haven't exactly played a lot of great teams, especially on offense, during this stretch. I think the offense struggles here on the road, as they should have a hard time running against a stout Bill's front seven and I think we see that defense everyone is praising have some troubles against the strong rushing attack and mobility of quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Saints are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when they come into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. We also find a strong system going against New Orleans, as favorites that are scoring 27+ ppg are just 7-27 ATS (21%) against the spread after allowing 14 or less points in each of their last 2 games over the last 10 years. Take Buffalo!
|11-12-17||Vikings -1.5 v. Redskins||38-30||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings -
I like the value here with Minnesota laying a short number against the Redskins on Sunday. Washington is coming off an impressive 17-14 win at Seattle, but were very fortunate to get the victory, as they needed a last second touchdown for the win and benefited from the Seahawks missing 3 field goals. I believe it has the Redskins getting a little too much respect here, even as a short home dog, as they are just decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball.
At the same time, this Vikings team is one of the best in the NFL and come in having won 4 straight and are also off a bye, which is a huge advantage this late in the season. Washington has failed to score 20 points in each of their last 2 games and I don't see them breaking that streak here against one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has had two weeks to game plan for them.
Vikings have covered 3 straight and that's a good thing, as they are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when they have covered 2 or more games in a row. Washington is just 3-12-3 ATS in their last 18 after totaling less than 250 total yards in their previous game and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Minnesota!
|11-11-17||Oregon State +22 v. Arizona||28-49||Win||100||56 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +
I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games.
There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game.
Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State!
|11-11-17||Alabama v. Mississippi State +14||31-24||Win||100||37 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State +
This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric.
I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively.
Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State!
|11-11-17||Cleveland State +6.5 v. Akron||57-67||Loss||-110||9 h 22 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on late releases
|11-11-17||San Jose State v. Nevada -18||14-59||Win||100||64 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada -
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is.
San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points.
Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada!
|11-11-17||Michigan v. Maryland +17||35-10||Loss||-110||67 h 46 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland +
I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home.
Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0.
Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland!
|11-11-17||Georgia v. Auburn +3||17-40||Win||100||64 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +
It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU.
This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn!
|11-11-17||Virginia v. Louisville -11||21-38||Win||100||49 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville -
It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores.
I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games.
Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville!
|11-11-17||St. Peter's v. La Salle -8.5||Top||40-61||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAB Opening Weekend GAME OF THE MONTH on La Salle -
I really like the value here with the Explorers laying single digits at home against the Peacocks. La Salle has two of the best players in the A-10 conference in junior Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg) and senior B.J. Johnson (17.6 ppg). They also bring back experience at the point with senior starter Amor Stukes (4.3 apg). If they can get some solid productions from their bigs, I really think this is a sleeper team to watch out for in the A-10 this year. As for St. Peter's they closed out last year by winning the CIT, but the Peacocks lost 3 starters from their 23-win squad, including their top two scorers in Trevis Wyche and Quadir Welton. Take La Salle!
|11-11-17||Dartmouth v. Quinnipiac +1.5||77-78||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac +
I like the value here with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em at home against Dartmouth. I believe that Quinnipiac's program is headed in the right direction under new head coach Baker Dunleavy, who is the son of former NBA player and current Tulane head coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. Bobcats big man Chaise Daniels should be the best player on the floor in this one, as the there's really not a lot to like with the Big Green, who went just 3-10 outside of Ivy League play a year ago and are expected to finish in the bottom half of the league again this year. Also, Dartmouth will be without one of their best players in junior forward Evan Boudreaux, who led the team with 17.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg, as he's not eligible to play. Take Quinnipiac!
|11-11-17||Canisius v. Buffalo -8.5||75-80||Loss||-110||4 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -
I like the value here with the Bulls laying single digits at home against the Golden Griffins. Buffalo is one of the best teams out of the MAC and have a great mix of returning talent, as well as some big time new pieces.
The Bulls return one of their top scorers in C.J. Massinburg, as well as last year's MAC Defensive Player of the Year in Dontay Caruthers. They also added in one of the top juco players in the country in Jeremy Harris. Nate Oats has really done a fine job here and this should be his breakout season with the Bulls.
Canisius has some nice pieces, but are expected to finish in the bottom half of the MEAAC this year. Take Buffalo!
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State -16||3-48||Win||100||45 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State -
The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout.
There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for.
Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around.
Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State!
|11-11-17||Rutgers +31 v. Penn State||Top||6-35||Win||100||63 h 7 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +
I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights.
While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible.
I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers!
|11-11-17||NC State v. Boston College +3||17-14||Push||0||60 h 7 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College +
The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia.
A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games.
Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College!
|11-11-17||Indiana -7.5 v. Illinois||24-14||Win||100||60 h 48 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -
I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits.
Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds.
The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana!
|11-10-17||BYU +3.5 v. UNLV||31-21||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|11-10-17||Southern Utah +24 v. Oregon State||82-99||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Late Night ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Southern Utah +
I think we are getting some great value here with the Thunderbirds as a massive dog in Friday's late night action against Oregon State. While the Beavers should be improved, they still got a ways to go after last year's 5-27 campaign. Simply put, this team should not be laying this big of a number here, even against one of the lower teams in the Big Sky. Take Southern Utah!
|11-10-17||CS Sacramento v. Colorado State -16.5||61-72||Loss||-105||22 h 40 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Colorado State -
Larry Eustachy did a remarkable job with this Colorado State team a year ago, guiding the Rams to a 24-12 record despite being short-handed with just 7 scholarship players. He rightfully received MWC Coach of the Year honors. While Colorado St loses two big pieces in Gian Clavell and Emmanuel Omogbo, there's a nice nucleus coming back and some help in the form of junior college transfers. Sacramento State was expected to be a middle of the pack team in the Big Sky, but now are likely headed towards the basement with the loss of one of their best players in Marcus Graves. Just not enough talent left for the Hornets to keep this one respectable. Take Colorado State!
|11-10-17||Bucks v. Spurs -4.5||94-87||Loss||-110||15 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Spurs -
I'll gladly back the Spurs here as a short home favorite against the Bucks. San Antonio continues to be undervalued by the books with both Leonard and Parker sidelined. It doesn't matter who is on the floor for Popovich, the Spurs are going to play at a high level, especially at home, where they are 5-1 on the season.
Milwaukee is a good young team that is getting a lot of love from the books, but aren't playing up to their potential. The Bucks are just 3-5 ATS, with an 0-3-1 ATS mark over their last 4 games. While Milwaukee is expected to have Eric Bledsoe in action, that's likely going to throw off the chemistry, as it will take a few games for Bledsoe to get accustomed to his role with his new team.
Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that doesn't have a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games overall. Bucks are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs the Western Conference. Take San Antonio!
|11-10-17||Niagara v. St Bonaventure -9||77-75||Loss||-110||20 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St Bonny -
I'll back the Bonnies here to win by at least 10 at home against the Purple Eagles. St. Bonaventure returns their two backcourt stars in seniors Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who are a big reason why the Bonnies are coming off their first back-to-back 20-wins seasons since the late 70's. This team is a legit threat to win A-10. Even though Adams isn't expected to play here because of an ankle injury, I believe there's a big enough gap here in talent for the Bonnies to turn this into a blowout at home. Take St. Bonaventure!
|11-10-17||Hornets v. Celtics -4||87-90||Loss||-105||10 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Celtics -
Even with Boston expected to be without Horford and Tatum, I see a ton of value here with the Celtics laying a short number at home against the Hornets. Kyrie Irving is playing at an MVP level and there's more than enough talent available for Boston to win at home against Charlotte.
The Hornets aren't exactly playing well, as they have lost 3 straight and are also a miserable 1-5 on the road, which includes a loss at NY in their most recent game, where they allowed the Knicks to shoot a ridiculous 60% from the field.
Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and the Hornets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Boston!
|11-10-17||IUPU Ft Wayne +7 v. Oakland||71-85||Loss||-110||21 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on IPFW +
I think we are getting some good value her with the Mastodons. Oakland is the favorite to win the Horizon and rightfully so, but this Fort Wayne squad should be a serious contender in the Summit. The Mastodons went just 8-8 in league play last year but had a lead in the 2nd half of every game. This is a team to watch out for with 3 double-digit scorers coming back and I'll take them and the points Friday night. Take Fort Wayne!
|11-10-17||South Carolina v. Wofford +6.5||73-52||Loss||-110||19 h 2 m||Show|
4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Wofford +
I like the value here the Terriers against a South Carolina team that I'm way down on this year. The Gamecocks reached the Final 4 last year, but lost their heart and soul in Sindarius Thornwell, who averaged 21.4 ppg. They also lost two more key pieces in P.J. Dozier (13.9 ppg) and Duane Notice (10.2 ppg). South Carolina will be lucky to just make the NCAA Tournament. Wofford has some nice talent coming back, including sharpshooter Fletcher Magee, who connected on 112 3-pointers and led the team with 18.6 ppg. An outright upset isn't out of the question for the Terriers. Take Wofford!
|11-10-17||Alabama v. Memphis +4.5||82-70||Loss||-108||3 h 19 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER
No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS
|11-09-17||Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5||22-16||Win||100||12 h 54 m||Show|
3* Seahawks/Cardinals TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals +
I like the value here with Arizona catching almost a touchdown at home against the Seahawks, as I feel the Cardinals have a great shot of winning this game outright. We can certainly expect a big time effort here from the home team, as this feels like a must-win game given how strong the NFC is as a whole and they are looking up at both Seattle and Los Angeles in their own division.
The Seahawks are a big time public team and the oddsmakers have certainly inflated this line with it being a prime time game. While Seattle is 4-1 in their last 5, they just aren't playing all that great of football. The running game has been nonexistent and the offensive line is just as bad when it comes to pass protection. I think this Arizona defense will make life miserable for Russell Wilson and do enough here offensively to secure the cover.
Let's also not overlook the fact that these home teams have a HUGE advantage in these Thursday games, which only adds more value here with this line. Seattle scored just 14 points in their ugly home loss to the Redskins on Sunday and are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to score at least 15 points. Seahawks are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Arizona!
|11-09-17||Pelicans v. Raptors -4.5||118-122||Loss||-110||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Toronto -
I really like the value here with the Raptors at home against the Pelicans on Thursday. Great spot to jump on Toronto and fade the Pelicans. Raptors have failed to cover 3 of their last 4, which is definitely playing into this low number. I expect a max effort here from Toronto, as this is a key game for them to get with 6 of their next 8 on the road.
As for New Orleans, they come in riding a 3-game winning streak, all of which have come on the road, but it's nothing to get excited about as the wins have come against the Mavs, Bulls and Pacers. Pelicans also have road wins over the Lakers and Pelicans. Simply put their 5-2 road record is a bit of a joke given the teams they have played. The only legit team they faced away from home is the Blazers and they lost by double-digits and I expect the same thing to happen here.
Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games, while Pelicans are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!
|11-08-17||Lakers +9 v. Celtics||Top||96-107||Loss||-109||18 h 22 m||Show|
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers +
I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number.
You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles!
|11-08-17||Knicks v. Magic -4.5||99-112||Win||100||15 h 13 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Magic -
I like the value here with Orlando laying a short number here at home against the Knicks. New York comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 in their last 7, but I feel it has them overvalued here in a really top spot. The Knicks had to use up a lot of energy in last night's 118-113 win over the Hornets, where they erased a 15-point deficit. It's going to be tough for them to bring the intensity required to win on the road playing on no rest. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days.
Orlando on the other hand has had the last two days off and aren't going to be taking this game lightly after losing their last two. It's also an important game for them to win, as they have a difficult 5-game West coast trip coming up after this contest.
Even with the Magic coming off back-to-back losses, they are still sitting at 6-4 on the season. The offense really let them down in their last two games and should get back on track here against a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in 5 straight games. Take Orlando!
|11-08-17||Kent State +22 v. Western Michigan||20-48||Loss||-110||17 h 11 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now.
The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread.
It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State!
|11-07-17||Thunder v. Kings +11||86-94||Win||100||26 h 60 m||Show|
4* NBA Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kings +
I like the value here with Sacramento catching double-digits at home in Tuesday's late night NBA action on NBATV. Tough spot for OKC to show up with the kind of intensity needed to turn this into a blowout, as the Thunder have to have some tired legs playing in what will be their 5th road game over their last 6. OKC has also been overvalued by the books here of late, as they are just 3-5 ATS over their last 8.
I know the Kings haven't looked good and come in having lost 7 straight, but I expect a big effort here in a nationally televised home contest against one of the top teams in the league.
Oklahoma City is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Kings on the other hand are a rock solid 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when they come in having failed to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Take Sacramento!
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5||14-24||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami -
I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg.
While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)!
|11-07-17||Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5||28-38||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -
This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team.
The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home.
Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo!
|11-06-17||Celtics -8 v. Hawks||110-107||Loss||-110||11 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Celtics -
Boston heads to Atlanta on Monday having won and covered in each of their last 8 games to improve to 8-2 after their 0-2 start to the year. The Celtics cruised to a 104-88 win at Orlando yesterday to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road this season.
I think we are getting some decent value here with Boston against a bad Hawks team after they pulled off a surprising 117-115 upset win at Cleveland yesterday as an 11-point dog. While the win looks impressive, I think it's more of a result of how bad the Cavs are playing right now than Atlanta turning the corner. The Hawks are still a miserable 2-8 on the season and have yet to win a game at home.
Atlanta is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning road record and just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs fellow teams from the Eastern Conference. Celtics are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Boston!
|11-05-17||Raiders v. Dolphins +3||27-24||Push||0||16 h 8 m||Show|
4* Raiders/Dolphins SNF BEST BET on Dolphins +
I like the value here with Miami catching a field goal at home against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The public is going to be all over Oakland, even with the Raiders off an ugly 14-34 loss at Buffalo last week, as they won't be able to get over the 0-40 loss the Dolphins suffered in their last contest, as it was a prime time game.
That loss for Miami came with backup QB Matt Moore under center and it didn't help matters the Dolphins were playing on the road in a short week, as the home teams have such a huge advantage in those Thursday Night games. I expect a big bounce back effort here from Miami at home and keep in mind they now have the scheduling advantage with 3 extra days to prepare and rest up for this contest.
I also don't think the Raiders are as good as people think. They had that one big game against KC at home a coupe weeks ago, but that was one of those Thursday night home games where they had a big edge and they were lucky to win. Oakland is just 1-3 on the road this season and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall. Take Miami!
|11-05-17||Jazz v. Rockets -6.5||110-137||Win||100||21 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -
The Rockets are finally connecting on their 3-point shots. After pouring in 19 3-pointers in a 119-97 win and cover at New York on Wednesday, they fired back with 16 more made 3-pointers in Friday's 119-104 win at Atlanta. Poor shooting from the outside had really been the only thing keep ing Houston back. I like the hot shooting to continue at home against the Jazz on Sunday and wouldn't be shocked if we saw another lopsided win for the Rockets.
The Jazz have been playing better than some expected after losing Hayward in the offseason, but most of their success has come at home. In fact, they are 0-3 so far on the road, where they are scoring just 89.7 ppg and getting outscored by an average of 10 ppg. Utah simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close and it's worth noting that the home team is a solid 7-3 ATS in there last 10 meetings in the series. Take Houston!
|11-05-17||Chiefs v. Cowboys -1||17-28||Win||100||55 h 48 m||Show|
3* NFL ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cowboys -
I like the value with Dallas at basically a pick'em at home against the Chiefs on Sunday, especially with the recent news that Ezekiel Elliot will be playing. Kansas City has become one of the public's favorite teams to back and they come in off a convincing win over the Broncos in a prime time game on Monday Night Football.
While the Chiefs defense was able to slow down Denver's anemic offense, they have been struggling on that side of the ball. One area that really concerns me with KC and their defense is their ability to stop the Cowboys rushing attack. The Chiefs are 28th in the league against the run, giving up 131.1 ypg. Note they aren't any better against the pass, ranking 29th, allowing 261.1 ypg. I look for Dallas to take full advantage of the Chiefs weakness against the run and dominate the time of possession here and secure the win.
Cowboys are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when they come into a contest of 2 straight road wins. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 30 or more points and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they covered the spread! Take Dallas!
|11-05-17||Redskins +7.5 v. Seahawks||17-14||Win||100||140 h 40 m||Show|
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins +
I know Washington is dealing with some injuries and are off an ugly 19-33 loss at home to the Cowboys, but I think it's created some great value and I'll take my chances with the Redskins at this pice. That game against Dallas was also a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Washington was within a touchdown late in the 4th quarter before Dallas added a garbage TD with less than 30 seconds to play.
The Seahawks have won 4 straight, but needed everything they had to escape with a 41-38 win at home over the Texans last week. They also had a very fortunate 16-10 win over the Rams during this stretch. LA fumbled a TD out of the end zone and had 5 turnovers on the game. I still have concerns with the offensive line and the defense will be without one of their most important pieces in safety Earl Thomas. Keep in mind they weren't the same on that side of the ball last year when he went on IR. I think Cousins and the Redskins offense can do enough here to keep this within the number. Take Washington!
|11-05-17||Hawks +13 v. Cavs||117-115||Win||100||13 h 18 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Hawks +
I really like the value here with Atlanta as a big dog agains the Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon. I know the Hawks are one of the bottom feeders this season, but we can expect a max effort here from Atlanta against Cleveland, as the Cavs get everyone's best shot.
Cleveland comes in off a 130-122 win at Washington, where they somehow found themselves in a dog fight despite James going off for 57 points. That's not a good sign and the defense was once again awful, allowing the Wizards to shoot 53.6% from the field. Cleveland had lost 4 straight overall and 6 straight against the spread prior to that win and cover over Washington. That included outright losses to both the Nets and Knicks, who I would put in a similar class to Atlanta.
Cavs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Atlanta!
|11-05-17||Bengals +5.5 v. Jaguars||7-23||Loss||-110||136 h 28 m||Show|
4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bengals +
I think we are getting some great value here with Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a sluggish game at home against the Colts, where they squeaked out a 24-23 win. A lot of peopler were on Cincinnati as an 11-point favorite and the week before they lost by 15 as a 4-point dog at Pittsburgh. That combined with the Jaguars coming off a win and their bye week has this line a little too inflated in my opinion.
Jaguars have impressed with their 4-3 start, but have also been very inconsistent, as they have not won back-to-back all season. A big reason I think the Bengals can keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright is their defense. Cincinnati is 5th in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 295 ypg and are giving up only 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville's strong start is more to do with their defense than their offense and they have yet to win a game this season when they have failed to score more than 20 points.
Bengals are a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, while the Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after holding their previous opponent to 14 or less points. Take Cincinnati!
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||10-30||Loss||-105||76 h 31 m||Show|
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs +
I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching a touchdown against division rival New Orleans. It's been a miserable start for the Bucs, who had such high expectations coming into the season, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Tampa just yet and expect one of their better efforts of the season in this one.
We are also getting a big number here as the books have no choice but to inflate this number on the Saints with them coming in having won and covered in 5 straight games. It's been a good situation to fade New Orleans in the past, as they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Bucs are also a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 5 or 6 out of their last 7.
We also find a great system in play backing the Bucs, as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 121-73 (62%) against the spread in the month of November dating back to 1983. Take Tampa Bay!
|11-05-17||Ravens v. Titans -3||20-23||Push||0||62 h 34 m||Show|
4* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans -
I like the value here with Tennessee laying a short number at home against the Ravens. Last time Baltimore took the field they laid a 40-0 beating on the Dolphins, but Miami's offense was without starting their starting QB and already one of the worst offensive units in the league. That was also a home game on Thursday, where the home team has a massive advantage on short rest.
Prior to that the Ravens were just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Raiders without Carr. The losses during this stretch weren't good and I just don't see them being able to hang with the Titans, who return from their bye playing with a ton of confidence after winning each of their last two.
Baltimore is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home win by 21+ points and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Titans have also had a great home field edge of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Tennessee!
|11-04-17||Oregon +21 v. Washington||3-38||Loss||-110||85 h 1 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +
I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window.
Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured.
Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon!
|11-04-17||Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves||99-112||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Mavs +
I'm not expecting Dallas to pull off the upset, but I think this line has been inflated to the point where there's too much value on the Mavericks to pass up. Minnesota comes in having won 3 straight, but are still just 5-3 on the season and could find it hard to take Dallas all that serious given how bad the Mavs have been and how well they have been playing of late.
One reason I believe Dallas can keep this closer than the books are calling for is the Timberwolves defense has been sub-par at best for the majority of this season and offense is the biggest weakness for the Mavs. Minnesota comes in allowing 113.1 ppg and opposing teams on the season are hitting 50.8% of their attempts against them.
Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games off a win, while the Mavs are a solid 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Dallas!
|11-04-17||Kings v. Pistons -8.5||99-108||Win||100||20 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pistons -
Detroit should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Kings on Saturday. I know the Pistons are in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back set, but this is a deep team that's getting outstanding production from their bench. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league, who enters this game just 1-7 on the season.
The Kings have been atrocious on the offensive end of the floor, as they come in averaging a futile 93.1 ppg and are shooting just 42.7% from the field on the season. They are getting outscored on average by 12.4 ppg, as the defense is giving up 105.5 ppg. I just don't see them scoring enough here, as Detroit is holding opponents to just 96.0 ppg at home. Kings haven't even eclipsed 90 points in their last 3 and have lost 4 straight by at least 12 points.
Pistons are a solid 40-22 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a home favorite and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing record, as well as 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the Western Conference. Take Detroit!
|11-04-17||Nevada +22 v. Boise State||14-41||Loss||-110||43 h 45 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada +
I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada.
The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball.
Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game.
Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada!
|11-04-17||Oregon State v. California -7||Top||23-37||Win||100||80 h 53 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal -
I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him.
Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog.
Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game.
Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal!
|11-04-17||Costal Carolina v. Arkansas -23||38-39||Loss||-109||79 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -
The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5.
While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU.
Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas!
|11-04-17||Ohio State v. Iowa +17||Top||24-55||Win||100||114 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +
I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race.
This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number.
Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!
|11-04-17||South Florida v. Connecticut +24||37-20||Win||100||96 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn +
South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season.
I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early.
It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games.
Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut!
|11-04-17||Wake Forest +14 v. Notre Dame||37-48||Win||100||91 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +
I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest.
What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami.
Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest!
|11-04-17||Wisconsin -10.5 v. Indiana||45-17||Win||100||95 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -
A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real.
Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB.
Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin!
|11-03-17||Hornets v. Spurs -3||101-108||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Spurs -
It's been a tough go of things for San Antonio here of late. The Spurs have lost 4 straight after starting out the season 0-4. With Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker still sidelined, I think the perception on this team has taken a big hit and thus they are showing big time value here as a slim 3-point home favorite.
One thing that is getting overlooked is that the Spurs have played just 3 home games and 3 of the 4 losses during their skid have came on the road. The other was at home last night against the best team in the league in the Warriors. In their previous two home games they knocked off a quality opponent, beating the Timberwolves 107-99 and the Raptors 101-97. While Charlotte has been playing well, they aren't on the same level as those two teams and are just 1-2 on the road.
Spurs shooting of late hasn't been great, but they are an impressive 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a stretch where they went 3 straight games shooting 42% or worse from the field. Take San Antonio!
|11-03-17||Rockets -8 v. Hawks||Top||119-104||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets -
I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start.
Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg.
Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston!
|11-03-17||Bulls v. Magic -8||105-83||Loss||-110||12 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic -
This might seem like a big number for the Magic to be laying, but few teams are playing as well as Orlando out of the gates and the Bulls are in the running for the honor of being the worst team in the league. I mean Chicago's starting five is a joke. It's expected to be rookie Lauir Markkanen, Brook Lopez, Justin Holliday, Jerian Grant and David Nwaba.
So far the Bulls only win has come at home against the equally pathetic Hawks. Their 6-point loss at Miami on Wednesday is their smallest margin of defeat and the Heat aren't exactly playing well. The Magic's only two losses have come on the road in their impressive 6-2 start and they are getting it done on both sides, averaging 114.9 ppg and have held half their opponents under 100 points. They should be able to do whatever they want here against the Bulls on offense and Chicago just doesn't have the offensive fire-power. Bulls are averaging a mere 88 ppg over their last 5. Take Orlando!
|11-03-17||Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic||25-30||Win||100||19 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +
We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.
On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin.
This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3.
I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall!
|11-02-17||Idaho +18 v. Troy||21-24||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho +
I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season.
Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset.
Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho!
|11-02-17||Bills v. Jets +3.5||21-34||Win||100||55 h 8 m||Show|
4* Bills/Jets TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Jets +
I'll take the points here with New York at home, as I think the Jets win this game outright. NY has been playing better than anyone anticipated and as a result have been a covering machine here of late. Since getting blown out on the road against the Raiders in Week 2, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. They could just as easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as all 3 losses came by 7 points or less.
This game has a little extra meaning for the Jets, who lost at Buffalo 12-21 back in Week 1. While the Bills were able to pull away late for the cover as a 7-point favorite, that game was much closer than the final score and could have easily went the other way. With Buffalo faced with the tough task of playing on the road with a short week of prep. The Bills are also in a bit of a letdown spot here after that big home win over the Raiders and I'm still not convinced they are as good as their 5-2 record. Neither does Vegas, as Buffalo is still at 40 to 1 to win it all (same odds as Packers, Lions, Titans, Jaguars).
Bills have ran over their last 2 opponents on the ground, but are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after rushing for 150+ yards in each of their last 2 games. They Jets are a solid 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 homes games. Take New York!
|11-02-17||Navy -8 v. Temple||Top||26-34||Loss||-110||36 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -
I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest.
Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win.
Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy!
|11-02-17||Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5||Top||14-56||Win||100||69 h 46 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg.
Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29.
Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||31 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan -
I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan.
The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3.
I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan!
|11-01-17||Pacers +10.5 v. Cavs||124-107||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacers +
I like the value here with Indiana catching double-digits against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is simply getting way too much respect for what they have done in the past and not based on how they are playing. The Cavs aren't playing any defense, their head coach has called them out of shape and the offense lacks chemistry without Irving at the point.
Cleveland has lost 3 straight overall and 5 in a row against the spread, with two losses outright as double-digit favorites. Indiana on the other hand is playing better than anyone expected after they traded away Paul George and as a result are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I think this one means a lot more to the Pacers than it does the Cavs and wouldn't be shocked if we saw Indiana pull off the upset.
Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off an upset loss as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS when off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more. Take Indiana!
|10-31-17||Bowling Green v. Kent State +3||44-16||Loss||-115||12 h 45 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State +
I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season.
The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home.
Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State!
|10-30-17||Broncos +7 v. Chiefs||19-29||Loss||-111||21 h 40 m||Show|
3* Broncos/Chiefs MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Broncos +
I like the value here with the Broncos catching a touchdown here against the Chiefs. While KC has been the better team to this point, the Chiefs have dropped two straight and these division games have a way of being closer than expected regardless of how a team is playing.
I think Denver's defense is going to be the difference here, as I think they got the weapons to keep KC's offense in check. They have been one of the best in the league against the run and are loaded with talent in the secondary. On the flip side of this, opposing teams have had their way with this Kansas City defense of late and I think the loss of Eric Berry is really being felt, as they just don't have anyone to matchup with opposing tight ends. Just look at how the Raiders offense picked apart this defense and went right back to struggling against the Bills on Sunday.
Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game, while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 off a SU loss. Take Denver!
|10-30-17||Magic +7.5 v. Pelicans||115-99||Win||100||22 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA Situational UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Magic +
While the Magic just lost and failed to cover in yesterday's 113-120 loss at Charlotte as a 4-point dog, I really like how Orlando is playing to start the year. This is a young team that is out to prove to the rest of the league they must be taken seriously this season and they are shooting lights out, hitting 48.4% from the field and 43.5% from behind the 3-point line.
They already have blowout wins over both the Cavaliers and Spurs and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they don't win this one outright. New Orleans has two studs in Davis and Cousins, but I lack depth and are in a prime letdown spot after that huge comeback win in Boogie's return to Sacrament and blowout win over LeBron James and the Cavs on Saturday.
Pelicans are just 13-29 ATS in their last 42 off a home blowout win by 20 or more points and a miserable 2-13 ATS when they are off an upset win by 15 or more as a home dog. Take Orlando!
|10-29-17||Steelers v. Lions +3||20-15||Loss||-107||116 h 4 m||Show|
4* Steelers/Lions SNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lions +
I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have a huge scheduling advantage here coming off their bye and are going to be extremely motivated to get a win sitting at 3-3 and having lost their last two. Note that Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye.
It's well documented that the Steelers offense doesn't produce at the same level on the road. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. In the Steelers two losses this season they failed to reach 100 yards. The only time they won with less than 100 on the ground was Week 1 at Cleveland and they barely snuck out a 21-18 win. The strength of the Lions defense is their ability to stop the run. They come in 7th in the league, giving up just 94.3 ypg and have held opponents under 90 yards in 4 of their 6 games this season.
While Pittsburgh's offense gets worse on the road, Detroit is a team that seems to alway put up points at home. The Lions are doing just that in 2017, scoring just over 28 ppg at home. As good as the Steelers defense has been playing, I think the Lions are able to do enough here offensively to get the win. Take Detroit!
|10-29-17||Wizards -5 v. Kings||110-83||Win||100||2 h 0 m||Show|
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Wizards -
no analysis on late additions
|10-29-17||Raiders v. Bills -2||Top||14-34||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills -
Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders.
The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season.
Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles.
Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo!
|10-28-17||Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky||Top||26-29||Win||100||117 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee +
The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky
The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats.
Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games.
There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee!
|10-28-17||Mississippi State -1 v. Texas A&M||35-14||Win||100||69 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State -
I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama.
Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg.
Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State!
|10-28-17||Minnesota v. Iowa -7||10-17||Push||0||116 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -
I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss.
I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue.
The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat.
You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa!
|10-28-17||Utah -3 v. Oregon||20-41||Loss||-115||95 h 52 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Utah -
I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season.
Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one.
The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance.
We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah!
|10-28-17||TCU v. Iowa State +7||7-14||Win||100||66 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER on Iowa State +
I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head.
The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home.
Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State!
|10-28-17||Penn State v. Ohio State -6||38-39||Loss||-110||42 h 57 m||Show|
4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -
The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here.
I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye.
The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State!
|10-28-17||Air Force +12 v. Colorado State||Top||45-28||Win||100||113 h 50 m||Show|
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +
I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before.
I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29.
Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9 ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force!
|10-28-17||California +4 v. Colorado||28-44||Loss||-110||64 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal +
I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45.
I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State.
The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California!
|10-28-17||Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh||14-31||Loss||-115||110 h 22 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia +
I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much.
Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that.
As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run.
Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia!
|10-28-17||Rutgers v. Michigan -23.5||14-35||Loss||-110||100 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan -
I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them.
Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game.
Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan!
|10-28-17||Buffalo University +5.5 v. Akron||20-21||Win||100||38 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER on Buffalo +
I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright.
The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program.
Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover.
Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo!
|10-27-17||Florida State -4 v. Boston College||3-35||Loss||-110||23 h 32 m||Show|
3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State -
As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals.
I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one.
BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State!
|10-25-17||Wizards -6 v. Lakers||99-102||Loss||-107||20 h 33 m||Show|
3* NBA Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Wizards -
Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting.
While those two take it upon themselves to make his life miserable, Washington should have no problem building up a big lead here and winning by double-digits. The Wizards have been all business during their 3-0 start and I think the Lakers are way overvalued because of all the publicity this team gets and hype around Ball. They are 1-2 with both losses coming at home by at least 7 points. Take Washington!
|10-24-17||Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers||1-3||Loss||-140||22 h 22 m||Show|
3* Astros/Dodgers WS Game 1 BEST BET on Astros +1.5
I like the value here with Houston on the +1.5 run line for Game 1 of the World Series. We got two of the games best starters on the mound in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel and all signs point to a closely contested matchup to get the series started. That puts the value here with Houston, who we need to either win or lose by 1 or less.
I think there's a decent chance the Astros pull out the victory. As good as Kershaw has been, he's got a 3.64 ERA in his 3 postseason starts this year and has allowed 6 home runs in the playoffs so far. With the ball figuring to carry a little better with the heat wave in LA, Houston could blow this open early. Take the Astros +1.5!
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles -4.5||24-34||Win||100||11 h 11 m||Show|
4* Redskins/Eagles MNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles -
Washington played the Eagles tough at home back in Week 1, but injuries have really taken it's toll on the Redskins defense since that game. They will be without Josh Norman and rookie defensive line Jonathan Allen, who played a big role in the revamped Washington front on that side of the ball.
The Redskins could also be without a few other key defensive players, but those two are going to be tough to replace against a Philadelphia offense that has only gotten better since these two teams played in the season opener. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive front is one of the best in the league and could be getting a big boost in the secondary with the possible return of corner Ronald Darby.
Factor in the home field advantage here for the Eagles, which is going to be at it's highest during the regular season with this being a prime time showdown on Monday Night Football. You also can't discount the scheduling edge Philadelphia has. The Eagles got a few extra days to prepare and recover after playing on Thursday last week. Washington won't go away easy, but the Eagles should be able to win here by at least a touchdown. Take Philadelphia!
|10-23-17||76ers v. Pistons -3.5||97-86||Loss||-110||10 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pistons -
I like the value here with Detroit laying a short number against the 76ers. Philadelphia is a good young team, but are getting a little too much respect on the road. The Pistons only loss so far in 2017 is a 4-point loss at Washington. Their only home game was the opener against Charlotte, which they won by 12 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I look for Detroit to take control of this one early and pull away late for a comfortable win.
Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. Philadelphia is only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to Detroit. Take the Pistons!
|10-22-17||Falcons v. Patriots -3||Top||7-23||Win||100||150 h 49 m||Show|
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats -
I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit.
If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen.
Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England!
|10-22-17||Bengals +6 v. Steelers||14-29||Loss||-110||149 h 48 m||Show|
3* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bengals +
Cincinnati is not getting near enough respect here against the Steelers. The Bengals got off to that miserable 0-3 start, where the offense couldn't get anything going in their first two games. I still think they are getting treated like that team, especially against a team the public loves to back in the Steelers.
Cincinnati could have easily won Week 3 at Green Bay, as they had a 14-poitn lead at the half and were up a touchdown in the 4th quarter of a 24-27 defeat. They bounced back with a 24-point blowout win on the road against the Browns and followed it up with a 20-16 victory over the Bills. The Bengals defense is the real deal and come in 2nd in the league giving up just 16.6 ppg. Keep in mind they are the only defense so far to keep Texans rookie Deshaun Watson in check. They limited him to just 125 passing yards, which is his worst passing yards total by 100 yards. He also didn't throw a TD against them and has thrown at least 2 in every other start (15 total).
I think that defense will make life miserable for the Steelers, as they will be able to keep Bell in check and force a struggling Ben Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. Pittsburgh D will keep them in it, but this should come right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals won outright. Take Cincinnati!
|10-22-17||Seahawks -5 v. Giants||24-7||Win||100||142 h 47 m||Show|
4* NFL Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Seahawks -
I'll gladly back Seattle laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Giants. Prior to New York's surprising win at Denver last week on Monday Night Football they were expected to be more than a touchdown underdog in this game. I just didn't see enough from the Giants offense to think this team is going to be able transform into a better team after losing their top two wide outs in Beckham Jr and Marshall.
It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that won them that game, as Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They had just 266 total yards and 12 first downs.
This is the time of year where Seattle turns it up a notch and that defense should have no problem keeping NY in check, as the Seahawks have only allowed more than 18 points once this season. Russell Wilson and the offense should be able to provide enough fire-power coming off a bye to win this by double-digits. Take Seattle!
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears +3||Top||3-17||Win||105||145 h 23 m||Show|
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears +
The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it.
I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game.
The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago!
|10-22-17||Jets v. Dolphins -3||28-31||Push||0||142 h 21 m||Show|
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins -
I believe now is the time to sell on the Jets after covering a big number at home against the Patriots, which was their 4th straight cover. New York might be 3-3, but they aren't a good team. They have a road win over the winless Browns and home wins over Miami and Jacksonville. They laid it on the Dolphins in Week 3, beating them 20-6. I think they are going to have a tough time getting up for this one. They are in a big letdown spot after facing New England, who is the one team they want to beat more than any other.
Miami finally showed some life offensively in the 2nd half of last week's 20-17 win at Atlanta, scoring all 20 in the final two periods. If the offense gets going, this team is going to be one to watch out of. The Dolphins haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season and that includes their 20-0 loss to the Saints in London. I think that unit will take it personal here against the Jets at home.
If Miami's offense shows up like I think it will, this could be over in a hurry. Either way they should be able to win here by at least a TD. Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 revenging a road loss, while the Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a division opponent. Take Miami!
|10-22-17||Jaguars v. Colts +3||27-0||Loss||-100||110 h 43 m||Show|
4* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts +
This one is begging for you to take the Jaguars laying only a field goal on the road against the Colts. Indy isn't a team the public wants nothing to do with and certainly aren't going to want to back them only catching 3-points. That has me backing Indianapolis in this one.
The Colts are just 2-4 with their only wins coming against the Browns and 49ers, but have been competitive in every game outside of the opening week loss to the Rams. They lost 18-46 to Seattle, but that was a 1-score game with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They also lost by 14 last week at Tennessee in a game they led by double-digits in the 2nd half.
People are getting excited about Jacksonville. While they aren't as bad as they have been, they still are a serious threat in the AFC. The defense has it's moments, but the offense has been really bad. Blake Bortles is doing just enough to not get benched. The rushing attack is great, but you have to be able to throw the ball with success to be taken seriously in this league, especially on the road.
Colts have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are 8-1 in their last 9 after a game where they were outgained by 100+ yards. Take Indianapolis!
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