Cappers Sports Picks

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 1/19:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Tuesday is with LSU plus the points versus Alabama. LSU (10-2) has won four straight games with their 85-80 win against South Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Tigers are unscathed at home with an 8-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games as an underdog. LSU pulls down 34.1% of their missed shots which is 31st in the nation. They should get plenty of second-chance shots against this Crimson Tide team that allows their opponents to rebound 29.8% of their misses, which is 239th. Alabama (11-3) has won seven straight games while enjoying their best start in SEC play since 1987. But the Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after winning at least seven in row. Nate Oats “pace-and-space” philosophy has them launching a 3-point shot in 46.1% of their shots from the field which is the 22nd most in the country. But the Tigers limit their opponents to just 27.6% shooting from downtown which is 17th best. Take LSU plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports EASILY DELIVERED their 25* CBB Big Ten Game of the Month on Saturday with Minnesota’ UPSET WIN against Michigan to help fuel their 15 of 20 (75%) CBB HOT STREAK and continued their 22 of 29 (76%) CBB mark! Now Frank furthers his 16 of 19 (84%) CBB Game of the Month mark along with his 37 of 53 (70%) CBB Game of the Month/Year run with a 25* CBB Conference Underdog of the Month! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-4) looks to rebound from their 78-61 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 9-point underdog. Ball State (6-5) has won their last two games after their 78-58 win against Northern Illinois on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami allowed the Bobcats to make 57.4% of their shots last week which was their worst defensive mark of the season. The RedHawks made only 40.4% of their shots as well which was their lowest shooting percentage in their last three contests. Now having lost three of their last four games, this is a crucial game for head coach Jack Owens who is running out of time in his fourth year coaching the program. He has seen his team cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss to a Mid-American Conference rival. And while Miami has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Returning home will help where the RedHawks are 4-1 this season. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. This team leads the MAC in protecting their defensive glass as opponents only rebound 25.0% of their missed shots. The Redhawks also force turnovers in 21.1% of their conference opponent’s possessions which is also best in the MAC. The Cardinals can struggle in this area as they are turning the ball over in 18.6% of their possessions, 6th conference play. Ball State held the Huskies to just a 34.9% shooting mark on Saturday which was their best defensive performance of the season. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two in a row against conference opponents. And while Ball State has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Now this goes back on the road where they are just 3-4 this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 road games when favored by 3.5 to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this to be a close game with the RedHawks in a position to win. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (610) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (609). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 1/19:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The final play on my cut list for Monday afternoon in All-Sports is with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea and Leicester City. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday. The Blues’ offense has been sluggish as of late as they have scored only four goals in their last four matches. Manager Frank Lampard’s side does get a boost with right back Reese James healthy again after being out with a hamstring injury. He should replace the struggling Cesar Azpilicueta on the pitch. Yet this Chelsea side has seen their offensive productivity slide as of late — their non-penalty kick expected goals mark is just ninth in the league since December 20th. Forward Timo Werner continues to struggle in his adjustment after being transferred from the Bundesliga in the offseason. Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) comes off a 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. The Foxes have two clean sheets in their last three matches. Yet they remain ranking in the bottom-half of the league in non-penalty kick expected goals this season. Expect a lower-scoring match. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

** Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month yesterday with Arsenal to further their 58 of 87 (67%) English Premier League run! Frank is now on a 7 of 10 (70%) Soccer sides run — and his 42 of 53 (79%) mark with his highest-rated 25* plays in All-Sports includes an 8 of 11 (73%) EPL highest-rated 25* run! Now this afternoon’s Chelsea-Leicester City goal-line winner on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET is Frank’s 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month! DON’T MISS OUT! **

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.

FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.