Cappers Sports Picks

Take the Tampa Bay Lightning with the money-line versus the Dallas Stars in Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa Bay (57-26-7) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss on Saturday in the opening game of this series. The Lightning have bounced-back to win 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least three goals. Tampa Bay has also won 41 of their last 49 games after not scoring more than two goals — and they have won 10 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than one goal in their last game. Dallas (51-32-8) has won four games in a row along with six of their last seven games — but they have then lost 27 of their last 43 games after losing six of their last seven games. The Stars will have a challenge trying to take a 2-0 lead against this Lightning team that has won 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than one goal. Take Tampa Bay with the money-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports lost a heartbreaker last night on the Patriots — but they remain on a RED HOT 16 of 25 (64%) NFL run! Frank is also on a 17 of 28 (61%) NFL TOTALS TEAR that has furthered his long-running 64 of 107 (60%) NFL Totals run — and now he furthers his 15 of 23 (65%) NFL Game of the Month/Year Totals run with his 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month for tonight’s New Orleans-Las Vegas O/U winner on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank began the day by CA$HING the Man City-Wolverhampton Over in the English Premier League to continue his SIZZLING 38 of 62 (61%) All-Sports run over the last seventeen days! Frank also has tonight’s Saints-Raiders’ ATS winner on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Monday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites. New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is one of the rare instances in professional sports where the home field advantage will be at it’s most diminished. Not only will there be no crowd support tonight given COVID-19 restrictions but head coach Jon Gruden’s team lacks a familiarity and comfort level edge (which I think is under-appreciated) since will be their very first game played at Allegiant Stadium. I have studied home advantage closely — especially over the summer when handicapping European soccer that began the crowd-free experiences in the globe’s Project Restart. Psychologists do make an argument that there is an edge for home teams given their sense of territoriality. It is a theory — and impossible to quantity since it is difficult to accurately measure this motivation. This Raiders team will certainly want to establish that their new “Death Star” is their “turf.” Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and while the “home” part is not a strong lagging indicator for this game, it is telling that they have performed better when their opponent lacks a home crowd and familiarity advantage. And while the Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week to the Panthers, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football, Las Vegas (as the Oakland Raiders) are 4-1-1 ATS. The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of the preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over an NFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. The Saints were outgained in that contest against the Buccaneers by -41 yards last week. Tampa Bay was 2nd in the league last year with +15 net turnovers — but what happens to this team if they do not win the turnover battle?

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first two weeks of the new season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the season under head coach Sean Payton. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W0-D0-L0) makes their 2020-21 English Premier League debut this afternoon after not playing last week given scheduling requirements ensuring a handful of teams a sufficient break after completing 2019-20 competition last month that was delayed due to COVID-19. Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L0) did play last week as they defeated Sheffield United last Monday by a 2-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City was a scoring machine last year — they averaged 2.67 expected goals (xG) per match. In their last five EPL contests, they scored 21 combined goals. They also scored at least two goals in their last five EPL matches on the road. But the weakness of this team was they would allow too many Big Chances by their opponents usually when becoming vulnerable by counter-attacks to their constant pressing approach. The Cityzens allowed 37 non-penalty kick Big Chances last season representing scoring opportunities with a better than 35% chance of success. To compound matters for this match, they will be without their best backline defender from last season in Aymeric Laporte who is recovering from a positive COVID-19 test. Man City will also be without Sergio Aguero and midfielder Ilkay Gundagon — but I do not expect these absences to impact their potent offensive attack. Gabriel Jesus is more than capable to take Aguero’s striker role as he did all last summer after the restart — and Raheem Sterling usually steps up his attacking ambitions when Aguero is not on the pitch. And Phil Foden is expected to play of Gundagon who is more active as an offensive player but not quite as skilled defensively. Man City saw at last nine combined goals scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Wolverhampton generated a solid 1.87 xG in their win over a defensive-minded Sheffield United last Monday. But despite the clean sheet, they did display vulnerabilities in their defense with the Blades xG being at 1.03. The Wolves then played midweek last Thursday in a 1-0 loss to Stoke City in Carabou Cup action. While manager Nuno Espirito Santo did not play his best forward, Raul Jimenez, in that match, he did use six of his usual starters, which risks them being a bit fatigued for this match. A tired Wolverhampton team may leave them not quite as stout defensively.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton are a fantastic counter-attacking team — and this is the system that tends to give Man City the most trouble since it is designed to take advantage of the high-pressing powerful attacking teams. When these two teams played at Molineaux last season, the Cityzens raced out to a 2-0 lead before the Wolves responded with three straight goals to pull off the home upset. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.