Cappers Sports Picks

My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over Falcons/Patrios (8:30 EST).

It’s a Super Bowl rematch and in my opinion, all signs point to a high-scoring shootout.

The 3-2 Falcons will be desperate here. Not only to avenge last year’s epic loss in the Super Bowl, but also because of the fact that they’re coming off consecutive losses at the hands of Buffalo and Miami.

Matt Ryan and Atlanta have looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others. After having a 17-0 halftime lead last weekend, the Dirty Birds were shutout in the second half to the Dolphins and eventually succumbed 20-17. It definitely felt like the second half of last year’s Super Bowl collapse and with that thought on their very front of their minds this weekend, I think we can expect to see the Falcons at their sharpest today.

New England comes in off a harder than expected 24-17 win over the Jets last weekend. The Pats have so far been less than impressive offensively and they’ll also be looking for a breakout performance. Tom Brady absolutely decimated the Falcons’ suspect secondary in the Super Bowl and the legend does definitely look primed for another big performance this evening. So far Brady has 1,959 yards, 13 TD’s and two INT’s.

I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of its last 11 against teams with winning records, while New England has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 20 in the same position.

All signs point to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.

The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.

Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. 

Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.

The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. 

New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.

The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST).

The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. 

QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. 

The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. 

But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West.

This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38.

Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. 

New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.)

QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. 

Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. 

Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. 

I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET.

The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles.

Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5.

While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier.

Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!'

Good luck...Larry