Cappers Sports Picks

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST).

I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill.

The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. 

New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. 

Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My free play is on the NY Yankees at 4:10 ET. Six pitchers combined on a five-hitter last nigh at Tropicana Field, helping the Tampa Bay Rays to a 2-1 win in Friday's series opener with the NY Yankees. The 35-40 Rays were outscored 31-10 in losing their first five meetings between the teams in 2018, before winning the last two while holding the high-powered Yankees to one run in both games. The Rays' committee approach on the mound paid dividends in both wins and they'll hope for another solid group effort in Saturday's late afternoon contest (more below). The Yankees had won four straight and seven of eight before getting stifled by Tampa Bay last night, with Brett Gardner being the only New York player with more than one hit (nice return after missing five straight games due to a knee injury). New York continues to own MLB's best record at 50-23 but the Yankees lead the Red Sox by just one game in the AL East.

Sonny Gray (5-4, 4.89 ERA) will take the mound for new York and be opposed by Tampa Bay reliever Wilmer Font (0-3, 7.56 ERA). Gray hopes to continue a turnaround that has seen him go 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four June starts (team is 3-1). Gray had a 6.67 ERA in April and then a 5.16 ERA in May but he has allowed only seven ERs in 24 innings in four June starts. He hasn't faced the Rays yet this season but he's 3-4 in his career against Tampa Bay with a 4.26 ERA, including a 4.32 ERA in four starts last year.

Tampa Bay's experimentation with relievers as starters has had mixed results but it did help the Rays beat the best team in baseball on Friday night. Wilmer Font is already with his third team in 2018 but has found surprising success growing into the unusual role. He has managed to last longer in each outing of his six June appearances, -- 2/3 of an inning, then 1 1/3, then 2, then 2 1/3, then 3 1/3, and then 4 2/3 last Sunday against these same Yankees (first three appearances this month were in relief). He has allowed three runs over 10.1 innings spread over three starts with Tampa Bay, lasting a season-high 4 2/3 innings and striking out five in a 3-1 win at Yankee Stadium this past Sunday. The same pitcher who had an 11.68 ERA in April and a 10.80 ERA in May now has a 2.51 ERA in June. 

So both Gray (a traditional starter) and Funt (a makeshift one), come in pitching well in their respective roles this June. However, the Rays are a full 16 games back of the Yankees and it's still not even July 4. Gray has underachieved since coming to the Yankees last summer but I will note that he owns a 2.19 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field. I really don't think much of Tampa Bay's policy of starting relief pitchers and the Rays are averaging a poor 3.97 RPG at home and it's highly unlikely the New York offense, which tops all of MLB in scoring (5.23 RPG), OPS (.793) and HRs (122), will be held check a second straight game. Play the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think this one highly favors the home side. All things considered, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who is being activated from the 10-day disabled list. Stroman threw a simulated game and has been given the green light here to try and improve upon his dismal start to the 2018 campaign. To go along with his ballooned 7.71 ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 total innings of work. 

The Angels counter with Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over four innings on Monday. Barria has been hurt by the long-ball of late, but note that he has a respectable 4-2, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all night games this season, while LA is 30-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position.

Barria is the correct call here in my opinion. Stroman’s shown no consistency whatsoever this season and he’s hard to trust on the road on his first start off the DL. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9*) (7:15 EST).

I don’t normally play favorites of this size, but in my opinion Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-4, 4.47 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one K in a setback to these very Red Sox last Sunday.

Leake has probably been better than the Mariners could have asked for to this point, but he still has only 55 K’s over 92.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games.

Rodriguez (9-1, 3.59) was on the winning side of last Sunday’s result, giving up two earned runs off six hits while striking out nine and walking one in his team’s 9-3 victory. It was his sixth straight winning decision and he now comes in with a sharp 90/24 K/W over 77.2 innings.

Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA in all night games this year and 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Rodriguez has another prime opportunity to pad his already impressive numbers. 

Lay the price, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST).

I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill.

The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. 

New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. 

Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) (4:05 EST).

I think Arizona will find a way to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory. While I don’t ever normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night, and then come back with the other in the following game), MLB is the one sport where each contest must be examined individually, because of the starting pitchers.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-5, 3.90 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits with two walks to go along with five K’s over 6.1 innings in a win over the Angels on Monday. 

Greinke had struggled previous to this decent outing, but he now certainly appears back on track.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Musgrove’s early numbers were impressive, but unsustainable in my opinion. While he still owns a sharp 17/2 K/W over his last three starts, I think that further regression is imminent.

Note as well that Arizona is already 23-15 (+7.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is already just 15-20 (-3.3 units) against clubs with winning records. 

I like the surging D-Backs to find a way to get the job done here behind Greinke.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Mexico (11:00 AM EST).

Many may predict that Mexico will have a letdown here after its historic opening game victory over Germany. However, I am not one of those people.

In fact, I think El Tri can smell the blood in the water, as they’ll look to take firm control of this group with a convincing victory over the impotent Korean attack. 

Mexico got a goal from Hirving Lozano, and then it clamped down on the defensive side, stymying the prolific German attack completely. 

What hope does the Korean Republic have after being held without a single shot on net in its 1-0 loss to Sweden?

Heung Min-Son looked very average overall for Korea and while the Asian side didn’t make it easy on Sweden, it’s impossible for me to see them mustering any sort of semblance of an offensive attack against the Mexican’s stout back line.

And to add insult to injury, Korea will be without the services of key figure, full-back Park Joo-Joo,who sustained a hard hit in the loss to Sweden. 

Mexico on the other hand comes in at full health and it’s expected to field the exact same line-up which took care of business against the defending World Cup champions.

When you add it all up, I absolutely believe that we’re getting fantastic line value in this one. Lay the price, play on Mexico.

Good luck…Larry