Cappers Sports Picks

My free play is on Dayton at 4:00 ET.

The Flyers are second in the nation in scoring, averaging 88.7 PPG and rank first in assists. 6-9 sophomore Toppin (22.1 & 8.6) is the focal point of the Dayton offense and some are saying he'll be a top-5 pick in the next NBA draft. He's joined up front by 6-7 senior Mikesell (11.6) but don't underestimate Dayton's terrific perimeter group. PG Crutcher (11.9 & 6.3 APG) is the only one in double digits but three more players, just miss. Landers (9.9), Chatman (9.6) and Watson (8.9) are quite a trio. Landers transferred from Chattanooga and Watson from Michigan.

Saint Mary's returned the nucleus of a team that lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. St Mary's is led by senior guard Jordan Ford, who averages a team-high 20.2 PPG. PG Kushe (5.0 & 3.3 APG) is a steady backcourt partner for Ford plus a trio of big men give head coach Randy Bennett  a solid frontline. It consists of the 6-8 Fitts (13.8 & 67.9), the 6-6 Krebs (12.9 & 4.6) and the 6-10 Tass (7.6 & 4.2).

St Mary's has had quite a run under Bennett, although it's played in the shadow of Gonzaga. Sunday's game should be a good barometer for both teams but I'm siding with the Flyers, who seem poised for a 'BIG YEAR"  under head coach Anthony Grant. He had coaching success at both VCU and Alabama, before taking Dayton job for the 2017-18 season, where he had a very successful four-year playing career as a Flyer.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi 76ers at 6:05 ET.

The Toronto Raptors saw Kawhi "take his talents to LA" after leading the Raptors to the NBA title last season (starting guard Danny Green also left for the Lakers) but Toronto has done just fine without him. The Raptors also kept 'chugging along' with PG Lowry and PF Ibaka sidelined. Both have returned, Ibaka three games ago and Lowry for the last two. However, the duos return has not gone smoothly. Toronto routed Utah in Ibaka's first game back (Dec 1) but with both Lowry and Ibaka back playing, the Raptors have lost home games to Miami and Houston. The  Raptors have not lost three games in a row in over a year but to avoid that happening here, they'll have win at Philly on Sunday night, something no team has done yet in the current season. The 76ers own the NBA's best home record at 11-0, after routing the the Cavs last night, 141-94. The Raptors KNOW Philly will be focused for this contest, as the 76ers lost 101-96 in Toronto on Nov 25 (more on that in a bit).

Lowry's a five-time All-Star and his line is 20.5-4.5-7.1 for the season. The 6-10 Ibaka (13.5 & 6.4) has proven his days as a valuable contributor are far from over. The 6-9 Siakam (25.0 & 8.6) has played at an All Star level and guard Fred VanVleet (18.7-3.9-7.3) has proven his Finals performance against the Warriors was no fluke. Back-up guard Powell (13.4 & 4.0) has taken advantage of extra "PT" with Lowry out and SF Anunoby (10.9 & 5.4) is proving he's an NBA regular. Center Marc Gasol (6.4 & 6.3) has been a disappointment but the good news is he is shooting 52.4 percent from the floor in December after posting a 30.9 percent effort in November and a 31 percent mark in October.

Josh Richardson (16.1) did not play last night (hamstring) and will miss his SIXTH straight game Sunday, while SG Matisse Thybulle is day-to-day after rolling his right ankle against Cleveland. Ben Simmons (14.7--6.7-8.4) scored a career-high 34 points on 12-of-14 shooting in just 26 minutes in last night's win over the Cavs. Joel Embiid (22.6 & 12.7) sat out Saturday's blowout win over the Cavaliers with a bruised left hip, but all reports are that he'll be "good to go" for the second half of this back-to-back set. Harris (18.9 & 7.) and Horford (14.0-6.9-3.9) join Embiid in the frontcourt, while Korkmaz (8.8) and Burke (7.1 & 3.4 APG) are getting more time in the backcourt with Richardson sidelined. SF Ennis (7.3 & 3.5) and PF Scott (6.0 & 3.4) come off the bench up front.

It's not been unusual for Embiid to sit out (see Kawhi's "load management") but as noted, he's expected to play here. One HAS to believe he'll be highly-motivated, as in that Nov 25 loss at Toronto, he was held scoreless for the first time in his career, going 0 of 11 from the floor and 0 of 3 from the FT line! Philly has struggled ATS as of late but this pointspread is MORE than manageable and I believe a real bargain. Yes, the Sixers lost Nov 25th at Toronto but they were a small road favorite in that one, which makes this price "one I WON'T pass up!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on Iowa St at 9:00 ET.

Iowa State and Seton Hall have each played basketball for over 100 years but their paths had never crossed until the day after Thanksgiving in the Bahamas last month, when the schools met in the fifth-place game of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Seton Hall won that contest 84-76 and the 6-2 Pirates (ranked 16th in the latest AP poll) visit Ames, Iowa for a rematch with the 5-3 Cyclones, tonight. The Hall has not played since that Nov 29th game, while Iowa St was able to get back on track with Wednesday's 79-61 home victory over Missouri-Kansas City.

Seton Hall's Myles Powell, who was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and he's currently a potential All-American and Naismith Award candidate. The senior gyard is averaging 23.4 & 4.1 to lead the Pirtaes and just one other player, the 6-11 Sandro Mamukelashvili (12.3 & 5.3), is averaging in double digits. Powell scored 24 points the last time against Iowa St, while Mamukelashvili had season-high 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting in that contest. Guard McKnight (9.5 & 4.4 APG) and Cale (6.8 & 4.6) start in the backcourt with Powell, while the 7-2 Gill (4.9 & 5.8) joins Mamukelashvili up front.

Iowa St finished last year's regular season on a 2-6 run but then won three games in three days to win the Big 12 tourney for the FOURTH time in the last six years. However, Steve Prohm lost his top-three scorers from last year's team. However, Iowa St has an excellent guard trio in PG Haliburton (16.1-6.0-8.6), Penn St graduate transfer Bolton (15.1) and Nixon (10.3). Haliburton is the only player in the nation with at least 120 points, 65 assists, 45 rebounds and 20 steals. The 6-9 Michael Jacobson (9.6 & 7.3) was held scoreless for the first time this season against Seton Hall but responded with 19 points on 8-of-9 shooting and added a career-high tying three steals in 28 minutes against UMKC. His frontcourt partner is the 6-8 Solomon Young (9.9 & 3,6).

I'm a fan of Seton Hall and its head coach (Kevin Willard) and will note that the Pirates' only two losses this season have come in games in which they gave up late leads to ranked opponents, Michigan St and Oregon. However, Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum is a tough venue for any visitor, no less one which hasn't played in NINE days and is attempting to beat the Cyclones for a SECOND straight time. Let me note that in the teams' meeting in the Bahamas, Iowa St led by nine points in the first half, before Seton Hall used a 13-1 run midway through the second half break it open. ISU's guard trio combined for 54 points in that Nov 29th meeting and should be ready for a similar effort here at home, while big men Jacobson and Young are SURE to improve on their combined 3 of 9 shooting. "Home is where the heart is," and is also where Iowa St will serve up some 'sweet payback!'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Pats at 4:25 ET.

The New England Patriots opened the season 8-0 but a Week 9 loss at Baltimore (37-20) ended the team's run at replicating the 16-0 regular season they accomplished back in . Now, as team welcomes the KC Chiefs to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, last Sunday's 28-22 loss at Houston leaves the Pats at 10-2, tied for teh NFL's best record with the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks and Ravens),. However, the pats have lost their grip on the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs Ravens own the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win). The Patriots look to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against visiting Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs suffered a pair of narrow defeats to New England last season, 37-34 in the regular season (MNF in New England) and a 37-31 home loss in the AFC championship game , one that kept them from reaching the Super Bowl. However, the 8-4 Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win (would also need an Oakland loss) and in the process, could end the Patriots' 18-game home winning streak.

QB Patrick Mahomes 'exploded' on the scene in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards with 50 TDs and just 12 INTs (113.8 QB rating) to win the league's MVP award. He opened strong again in 2019, throwing for 1,510 yards (377.5 per) in KC's 4-0 start with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, KC then lost back-to-back home games to the Colts (19-13) and Texans (31-24). The following week in Denver (on a Thursday night), Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap that kept him sidelined for the next two games. He returned in Week 10 at home against the Titans and while he threw for 446 yards, KC lost 35-32. The Chiefs have won two in a row since (sandwiched around a bye week), but Mahomes has thrown for just 182 and 175 yards in those wins. Mahomes sure doesn't get much help from his running game, with Darrel Williams going on injured reserve and Damien Williams (rib) still not practicing. The leaves veteran LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson to carry the load, which they haven't done very well. KC is averaging 94.5 YPG (24th). The defense has started to play better but KC still can't stop the run, allowing 141.3 YPG, third-worst in the NFL.

Tom Brady know all about not getting much support from his running game. New England barely averages more rushing yards than KC (96.3 YPG) but the Pats are averaging a pathetic 3.5 YPA, to KC's 4.2. New England's offense continues to sputter and only two late TD passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. Yes, Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions but he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a QB rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington. Since opening with seven TDs and zero INTs in his first three games, Brady's ratio is just 11-6 over the Pats' last nine games, as he's thrown one or zero TD passes SIX times. However, New England's defense has been superb, allowing an NFL-low 12.1 PPG on 258.0 YPG (2nd).

Here's the bottom line. Mahomes has not looked the same in his last two games and while New England's and Brady's recent play have caused some to say, "the Pats are finally becoming human," this is NOT the spot to go against them. The Patriots have lost to the Ravens and Texans, failed to cover against the Cowboys and only scored 17 points in beating the Eagles in their last four games (have averaged just 18.0 PPG in that span). However, the two losses have come on the road, NOT here in Foxboro. New England has won 22  straight home games (including the postseason), with 19 coming by SIX points or more. Want more? New England is coming off a loss and the Pats are a remarkable 42-16 ATS (that's 72.4%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins opened 0-7 but in Week 9, broke through for their first win, 26-18 at home over the NY Jets. The Dolphins upset the Colts the following week (Brissett was out for Indy) but then lost convincingly to the Bills and Browns. However, Miami played its best game of the year last week in beating the Eagles 37-31 as a 10-point home underdog. The Dolphins  now get a rematch with the Jets at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands. The Jets know all about bad starts, as they opened 0-4 and 1-7. The Jets looked great in winning three straight from Week 10 through 12 but threw in a major 'clunker' in Week 13 (naturally!). After scoring 34 points in each contest during their three-game winning streak, the Jets lost 22-6 at then-winless Cincinnati (0-11). New York totaled just 271 yards with two FGs, reminding all that they are the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

Miami,erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in its 37-31 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three TDs. Former first-round WR DeVante Parker continued his hot stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and TDs (two) against the Eagles. He has 20 catches the last three games and a team-high 53 on the season. Fitzgerald is pretty much counted on to produce the points for Miami, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in averaging 62.8 YPG on 3.1 YPA (the team's leading rusher has all of 201 yards!). Defense is a problem as well, as Miami is allowing 31.4 PPG, ranking dead-last in that category, as well.

Sam Darnold can 'feel Fitzgerald's pain,' as the Jets are one notch above the Dolphins, as their running game ranks 31st with 72.6 YPG (3.3 YPA). Good thing New York signed Le'Veon Bell, huh? Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019 (239 yards without a TD or INT). However, let's NOT ignore that he entered last week's game having averaged 279.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and just ONE INT in leading the Jets to 34 points in each outing (all wins). By the way, Darnold's working with a pretty mediocre cast of receivers, and I'm being kind.

Here's the 'dope.' Both QBs are on "do it alone missions" but the good news is that they face VERY vulnerable opposing pass Ds. The Dolphins have allowed 29 TD passes, while intercepting just EIGHT passes in 395 attempts. Then there is Miami's non-existent pass rush, which has a league-low 16 sacks. Want a comparison? No other team has fewer than 20, with Carolina leading the league with 46!. The Jets pass D is not quite as bad, allowing a more modest 19 TD passes but the Jets only have seven INTs in 447 pass attempts against.

The weather will not be quite as nice as it was in Miami when the teams met back on Nov 3rd but no rain or snow in the forecast (zero percent chance of precipitation) with kickoff temperatures around 40 degrees (good football weather). As noted above, Fitzpatrick has no running attack so the game plan is "just air it out!" Throw early and often, as the Miami defense can't stop anyone (see above for a reminder). Darnold has to be 'licking his chops' looking at Miami's defense on film and he's got some "making up to do" off last week's 'ugly' effort at Cincy and that Week 9 loss at Miami. In that one, Darnold threw a TD pass about five minutes into the contest and then Miami's dreadful D held the Jets out of the end zone the rest of the game. The Jets will score on the Dolphins, who will surely keep up enough for this game to 'fly' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.

San Francisco's defense is allowing a league-low of 250.9 YPG and ranks second in points allowed at 15.3 PPG. It held up well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, allowing just 20 points but still lost. I've always been somewhat skeptical of QB Jimmy Garoppolo but he's had a very good season, completing 69.0% for 2,896 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs (he's registered a QB rating of at least 110.2 in five of his last six games). He's done all this with a mediocre group of WRs, although TE Kittle (54 catches) is a "big time" performer. The running game averages 148.0 YPG, which ranks second-best to only Baltimore (Ravens are averaging a 'monster' 207.8 YPG). Keeping its RBs healthy as been a major issue, as Breida, Mostert and Coleman have all been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

This has been some impressive season for the Saints, as when Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in to go 5-0 as starter. Brees is back and while he's not quite the "Brees of old," he's completing 73.8% with 12 TDs and just four INTs (104.4 QB rating). WR Thomas has 110 catches and has been the "go-to" guy for both Brees and Bridgewater. The Saints miss Ingram (now with Baltimore) but in Kamara (587 yards on 4.7 YPA plus 64 catches) and Murray (464 yards on 4.4 YPA) make up a quality RB duo. The New Orleans D has been plenty good enough, allowing 20.7 PPG on 323.4 YPG.

Here's the rub. The 49ers opened 8-0 but in that span, they beat just ONE team with a winning record at the time of the game (Rams were 3-2). They are 2-2 their last four, losing to now 10-2 teams Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10 and have extra rest and preparation time (played on Thanksgiving), while the 49ers are off a physical road loss to Baltimore. To combat that, instead of flying home after last week's game in Baltimore, the 49ers opted to spend the week in Florida instead to avoid more cross-country flights and another time change (will it help?). It can't hurt but this is an off-surface and different environment for the 49ers playing on carpet inside a dome. In the end, Drew Brees owns a HUGE edge on Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, making the Saints a STRONG play at this price.

Good luck...Larry