Cappers Sports Picks

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Over 42.5

The 0-2 Pelicans are searching for answers and cannot be happy with their start to the new season. Luckily they have the rebuilding Lakers on deck and they'll be playing bully ball all night to get that first win.

The oddsmakers have over adjusted on the Lakers coming off their short victory and the rebound performance of Lonzo Ball and for that reason I'll take the short moneyline odds in the event of a back door cover by the Lakers.

New Orleans Pelicans moneyline

THe Panthers are in a slightly better situation because they come off a Thursday game and Bears come off a tough overtime game at Baltimore. Some key injuries to monitor as Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol and I doubt he plays, and Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t practiced. It really surprises me that the Panthers are one of the biggest public plays this week as I believe the Bears are a tough underrated team to beat at their home turf.

The Bears are 3-0 ATS at home. They played a tough schedule and got blown out twice when Mike Glennon and company destroyed themselves with company. With Trubisky and Kyle Long back healthy, they ground and pound and play it save. Bears have a good front seven, a strong running game and a solid young QB. Panthers struggle to run the ball whole season and even if Ryan Kalil is back, I am having a hard time seeing them running efficiently on that Bears front seven. A field goal at home should provide a lot of opportunity for the cover.

Chicago Bears +3

I love the Bills here against either Ryan Fintzpatrick or a banged up Jameis Winston. Bills are playing decent defense, especially at home where they tend to be even better. Defensive line is gonna have a good matchup vs the Bucs offense and the Bills offense should run all over them. Bills tried a new outside zone style with their new OC but it didn’t work out. Over the last few games they already reverted back to inside zone and power running and over the bye week they should have figured it out. LeSean McCoy will have a big game and the Bills defense should take care for the rest.

The Bills offense ranks terribly, but they started the season with the wrong run scheme and played the No. 1 schedule both in YPP and NYPPA. Their defense ranks high but they also played a top-10 schedule in YPP and NYPPA. Their YPP & NYPPA differentials schedules rank No. 1 in the league. With CAR, DEN, ATL & CIN they arguably played the toughest schedule since week 2 and now get a Bucs team on their 2nd straight road game with a look-ahead to Carolina and with a QB who got a banged up throwing shoulder.

I'll take the Buffalo Bills on the short moneyline here on Sunday.

I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks.

CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here.

San Francisco 49ers +6

Super Bowl revenge!

This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel.

They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit.

Atlanta Falcons +3.5

On top of Rogers going down, the Packers O-Line is in serious question entering this matchup. Regardless if David Bakthiari and Brian Bulaga play, they've had no reps with new QB Brett Hundley this week so they won't be familiar with his pocket presence/movement and it should allow for a field day for the Saints DT's - defensive end Cameron Jordan has registered five sacks already on the year. I expect Hundley and the Packers to attempt to counter this by trying to get rid of the ball very quickly and the Saints D-Coordinator well aware of this and play press coverage everywhere. Besides quick throws expect to see a lot of runs and screens, I don't expect Hundley to open up the offense in his first career start. The one thing he can do is scramble, so the Saints should be actively ready to play contain.

On the other side of the ball, things are really coming together for the Saints. They've rattled off three straight wins after an 0-2 start and quarterback Drew Brees sees things falling into place. "I think we've gotten better every week in certain ways," Brees told reporters. "Obviously, we have some momentum. We like the direction that we are going. We understand the things that have happened these last three weeks that've allowed us to win.". One of these things being the running game certainly. Look for Ingram and Kamara to continue their excellent play as of late and to get big chunks of yardage on Sunday against a defense which has struggled against the run allowing 119.8 yards per game (24th in NFL). 

New Orleans Saints -4