Cappers Sports Picks

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Monday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins @ 1:35 ET (Game 1 of double header) - The Braves are expected to have Touki Toussaint start game one of this day-night twinbill. He will be making his MLB debut. Though Toussaint has great minor league numbers this is a guy whom has only made 5 starts above the AA level in minor league ball. Last year he was still in single-A ball for the majority of the season. Give him credit as he has made a quick rise through the minor league ranks but now he faces a major league lineup on a warm afternoon in Atlanta where the ball should be carrying very well. He'll be opposed by a fellow rookie as well. The Marlins are expected to go with Pablo Lopez in game one but there is a chance it could be Merandy Gonzalez. Either way I like this play as, either way, it is a rookie pitcher for Miami that is facing a Braves team that has won 10 of its last 14 games thanks in large part to their lineup scoring an average of 6 runs per game in the 10 wins. Look for Atlanta to stay hot here at the plate. Lopez has a 4.54 ERA in his last 6 starts and has allowed 7 homers in his 7 MLB starts. If Gonzalez gets the call he has a 5.71 ERA and has been hit at a .311 clip working out of the bullpen this season for the Marlins. He has allowed 3 homers in 17 innings. The over is 8-3 in the 11 games between these teams and I expect more of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta (Game 1 of double header)

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Many will be expecting the Nationals to be flat here after the demoralizing 2-out 2-strike grand slam that turned a 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. However, I disagree. I think the Nats are going to be very feisty here and I expect them to enjoy success at the plate against Miles Mikolas. The issue for Washington is that their own starter, Tom Milone, can't be trusted here. Hence, a big play on the over for me. First off, as for Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander has been more hittable lately than he was earlier this season. He has given up 26 hits in the 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 home starts. As you can see, Mikolas certainly has not been unhittable of late! As for Milone, the Nationals southpaw got rocked for 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 6 innings in his most recent start and that was at home. In his only road start with the Nats he allowed 8 hits in just 5 innings. Look for the Cardinals to do plenty of damage at the plate in a game that should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Milone's starts. Also, the Cards are 15-8 to the over in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Game #921 Monday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The long-term reputation of both of these pitchers is great plus the Mets certainly aren't known for their run-scoring abilities. However, for this total to be down to a 7 (and possibly even headed toward a 6.5) in an American League park is simply too low in my opinion. The over is actually 6-1 in Luis Severino's last 7 starts. The Yankees right-hander has tailed off since his red hot first half of the season. In his last 6 starts Severino has a 7.31 ERA. The Mets Jacob deGrom had a strong start versus the Yankees earlier this season. However, when the right-hander last faced them in the Bronx (coincidentally last August) he got roughed up for 5 earned runs on 9 hits (including 2 homers) in 7 and 1/3 innings. Since late June, deGrom has only made two road starts and he allowed 6 earned runs on 14 hits in 13 innings. Those are mediocre numbers away from home and possible weather issues in the Bronx this evening (scattered thunderstorms) could cause delays that disrupt the rhythm for both of these pitchers. As a road dog in a range of +125 to +175, the Mets are 13-8 to the over this season. In home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less, the Yankees are a long-term 21-12 to the over (including 5-2 to the over the past two seasons). 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees