Cappers Sports Picks

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #859 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 3 ET in Jerry Colangelo Classic @ Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, AZ - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian and it is something that has served me very well through the years. This is another prime example of going against the grain. This line on #1 ranked and undefeated Gonzaga was as low as a -2 and has since been driven up to as high as a -4 in some spots. Of course this comes as no surprise as the betting markets are attracted to spots like this and also the game, though a "neutral site" is being played out west. That makes the Bulldogs the play here the way most people see it. What I see is we're getting some extra value here with an underdog that has the much better defensive stats on the season. Tennessee is the perfect example of what a "dangerous dog" is comprised of as they are allowing just 63.6 points per game on only 35.5% shooting from the field this season even though they've played a schedule that has been nearly equivalent to the strength of schedule Gonzaga has faced early this season. Keep in mind the Bulldogs barely beat Washington in their most recent game and also looked to be in trouble against Creighton (until late 2nd half) in their prior game. That is the same Bluejays team that got manhandled by Nebraska yesterday. The point is that the Bulldogs could be slightly over-rated at this point and I expect an upset here with the Vols so I will gladly grab the available points. Note that the Volunteers are 12-4 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Gonzaga is a long-term 7-13 ATS versus SEC opponents. 10* TENNESSEE

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:05 ET - Yes this is a big game so you would expect some extra defensive intensity but, truth be told, neither one of these teams is where they are today because of defense. The Raptors and Bucks are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their scoring prowess. Of course this is a big revenge game for Toronto after losing at Milwaukee earlier this season. That is certainly noteworthy as the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season when playing with revenge. As for the Bucks, they are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Additionally, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Milwaukee's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Last but not least, the over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. That means we have combined angles of 19-0 / 100% PERFECT in this one in support of a high-scoring blockbuster. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Toronto

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #21 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg Jets vs Philadelphia Flyers @ 3:05 ET - The Flyers are in a back to back spot and have had major issues this season keeping the puck out of their own net as they've been dealing with goalie injuries all season long. With that said, I look for the Jets to score a ton in this game. Winnipeg is angry off a shutout loss at home and will be in full bounce back mode here and won't take their foot off the gas either. However, the Flyers have been scoring well of late and they've averaged 4 goals per game their last 4 games and have added confidence after yesterday's 6-2 win at Buffalo. However, trying to stop this Jets teams is another matter entirely here which is why I feel we're getting great line value with this over. Note that Winnipeg had scored an average of 4.7 goals per game before the shutout loss versus the Blues on home ice! The Jets are 11-4 to the over this season in games against teams with a losing record. The Flyers are 9-4 to the over in this season in games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #119 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Yes it will be cold in Chicago - as you would expect in mid-December - but no precipitation and light winds means that both teams will have the full capabilities of the playbook in this one. The key for the Bears is getting Mitchell Trubisky back at QB and the fact that they're facing a Rams defense that certainly has not impressed overall this season. As for the Los Angeles offense however, that is another story entirely. The Rams are a juggernaut when they have a ball and, keep in mind, this Bears defense did struggle against QB Aaron Rodgers (remember that 2nd half performance even though he was hurt) as well as QB Tom Brady this season. The point is that, as good as the Chicago defense has been, they have struggled when facing strong passing attacks. QB Jared Goff and company certainly fit the bill in that regard plus they also have Todd Gurley at RB which gives them an extremely balanced offense which, in turn, keeps defenses off balance! In their final 4 games of the regular season the past two years, LA has gone 7-1 to the over. The Bears are 4-0 to the over this season in games played against teams with a winning record. I mentioned Chicago's pass defense struggles against better passing attacks this season and note the Bears also gave up 251 passing yards versus TB, 246 passing yards versus Minnesota, and 380 passing yards versus Miami. This is in addition to the big performances Rodgers and Brady had against this defense. Look for a huge game from Goff here. The Bears are averaging 31 points per game their last 9 game and the Rams are scoring an average of 35 points per game on this season. Take advantage of the downward line move in this one as it should fly over the total. 8* OVER the total in Chicago

Total of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #131 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET - The weather will be favorable in Oakland and this match-up features two teams who will play at a fast pace in this match-up. The Steelers have thrown the ball 150 times in their last 3 games while running it just 44 times. Look for Pittsburgh to get a big lead here and then Oakland will be forced to play catch-up and the only way they can do that is through the air. The Raiders have averaged 24 points per game their last 3 games and threw for 271 yards last week while completing 29 of 38 passes. The issue for Oakland is they can't stop teams as the Raiders have now allowed 34 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Oakland's last 3 games. The Raiders are also 4-0 to the over in their last 4 games against AFC North teams. Of course the Steelers are going to be very hungry here and won't take their foot off of the gas after back to back frustrating losses. That holds some significance for sure here because Oakland is actually 17-1 to the over in when they face a non-divisional AFC opponent that is off B2B SU losses. Look for a shootout to develop in this one as that 94% angle gets the cash again. 10* OVER the total in Oakland

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Yes the Cowboys have a rest edge here. However, they are off a huge upset win of the Saints. Also, the Eagles lost to Dallas in Philadelphia 4 weeks ago. The revenge-seeking Eagles are 15-5 ATS as a divisional road dog. The road team is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 games in this series and Philly has covered 3 of their last 4 games at Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS when off a game against the Redskins. Also, Philadelphia is gaining confidence with back to back wins for the first time this season as the Super Bowl champions look to get their swagger back. They can tie up the Cowboys for 1st in the division with a win here so there is no concern that it is "too late" in the Eagles locker room. Could the Dallas upset of the Saints leave the Cowboys a little flat here? Note that the Eagles, in divisional games, when facing an opponent off a SU home dog win, have gone 7-1 ATS! Last but not least, when head coach Doug Pederson is off a divisional game (beat Redskins last week) and playing with revenge, has gone 5-1 ATS with the Eagles. Yes I am aware of the injury issues for the Eagles secondary but look for the road dog to rise up here after the embarrassment of that home loss 4 weeks ago with their powerful defensive line play being the difference in this rematch. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz and company had over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the first game and also did it again with over 400 yards versus the Redskins last week. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #107 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans have only truly played well in terms of pass defense once in their past 5 games and that was because that was the game that opposing QB Alex Smith suffered that devastating ankle injury on the 1st drive of the 3rd quarter. That completely changed the complexion of the game. That said, other than that game, the Texans have allowed an average of 296 passing yards per game dating back to their October 25th game hosting the Dolphins. The point is that Andrew Luck and Company should have another big game against this Houston defense just like they did in the late September match-up in Indianapolis. The Colts are off a shutout loss but threw the ball 52 times (against just 16 rushes) last week. Of course an emphasis on passing is great for an over and Indy getting shutout last week is definitely a fluke result that is helping to give us some line value this week. Indianapolis entered that game having scored an average of 33 points per game in their 8 prior games! The Texans enter this game having scored an average of 35 points per game in their last 3 home games! The Colts are a perfect 4-0 to the over in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Houston

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #121 Sunday 8* New York Giants (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr is out for this game. However, the Redskins are in far worse shape as they are down to their 3rd string QB and dealing with an injury-depleted offensive line. That said, I also like the fact that the Giants are seeking payback for a home loss to the Redskins in late October. Note that New York head coach Pat Shurmur entered this season 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off a divisional game (Washington was at Philadelphia last week) and also 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off B2B SU losses (the Redskins have lost 3 straight). Additionally, the Giants are 12-1 ATS in divisional games when they are on the road off a non-divisional SU win and facing a team off a SU loss. New York is also 4-0 ATS in games played on grass this season. Washington is 11-22 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. Look for the short rest to again be a factor for the Redskins as the Giants, supported by their 32-3 (91%) ATS trends noted above, roll to a road rout in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS