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Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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Game Details

Feb 25 '21, 8:30 PM in 1h

NCAA-B | SE Missouri State vs Eastern Illinois

Play on: SE Missouri State +6½ -110 at BetCris

Game Analysis

My eyes perk up whenever I see Eastern Illinois in a favorite's role. The Panthers are 1-10 ATS in that role this season. They also have failed to cover five of their last six home games. Southeast Missouri State has picked up its game going 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three games. During this span, the Redhawks upset Austin Peay and Eastern Kentucky by 22 points. Then there is the first meeting between Southeast Missouri State and Eastern Illinois. The Redhawks were 3-point home favorites on Jan. 30. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 75, Eastern Illinois 44. Case closed. (Editor's note: Fresh off winning his Southland Conference Game of the Year with McNeese State on Wednesday, Stephen Nover has his Big Ten Conference Game of the Year today. The midwest native is one of the top college basketball handicappers in the nation going 225-171-5 the last four seasons. All of Stephen's picks come with his trademark analysis. Stephen has three other CBB plays today besides this free selection headed by his highly-sought Big Ten Game of the Year.)

Pick Released on Feb 25 at 04:58 am

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Wolves vs Bulls	Wolves +4 -106	Premium	126-133	Loss	-106	Show
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored.
Spurs vs Thunder	Thunder +1 -110	Premium	99-102	Win	100	Show
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon.
Warriors vs Pacers	Pacers -120	Premium	111-107	Loss	-120	Show
Stephen Curry is having a monster season. He and his Warriors, though, can not overcome a huge fatigue factor while taking on a rested home Indiana club that caused the Warriors fits inside when the teams met last month. The Pacers won that game, 104-95, getting a combined 40 points and 26 rebounds from big men Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. This time around the Pacers draw the Warriors playing their fourth road matchup in six days and second in two nights after getting past the Knicks, 114-106, last night. The Warriors have covered just 23 percent of the time the past 23 times when playing without rest. Indiana hasn't played in a week. The Pacers used that time to rest and get in additional practice. Their offense has been humming averaging 120.5 points the past four games. Indiana has won three of its last four.
Xavier vs Providence	Providence +1½ -105	Premium	68-83	Win	100	Show
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games.
Houston Baptist vs Nicholls State	OVER 154½ -109	Premium	68-83	Loss	-109	Show
The teams met on Jan. 20 and Nicholls State won, 92-83, for a total of 175 points scored. I don't see less scoring happening in the rematch here. Houston Baptist is a bottom-10 defense giving up 81.4 points a game. The Huskies have been even worse lately surrendering 83 points during their last three games. Nicholls State has scored at least 80 points in four of its past seven games. The Colonels should be able to get a number of easy inside baskets and layups off turnovers.
McNeese State vs Southeastern Louisiana	McNeese State +4½ -109	Top Premium	96-91	Win	100	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.

PICKS IN PROGRESS

Feb 25 '21, 7:00 PM

Play Type: Premium Pick

NCAA-B | Fairleigh Dickinson vs Sacred Heart

Play on: Fairleigh Dickinson +3 -110 at linepros

Game Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court.

Pick Released on Feb 25 at 04:44 am

Feb 25 '21, 6:00 PM

Play Type: Premium Pick

NCAA-B | St Francis NY vs Merrimack

Play on: UNDER 139 -110

Game Analysis

Merrimack just held Bryant, the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, to 76 points in its last game. That was nearly 10 points under Bryant's season average. If you discount that game, though, Merrimack is surrendering just 54.8 points per game during their past five contests. St. Francis of Brooklyn has gone Under in 10 of its last 14 road games. I see the Terriers struggling offensively here, too, dealing with the Warriors' zone defense and slow tempo. Merrimack ranks in the bottom-20 in offensive efficiency. The Warriors also are among the worst 20 teams in free throw percentage. They average fewer than 66 points a game. The Under has cashed in 20 of Merrimack's past 27 games. There were not more than 111 combined points scored in either of the team's two meetings last season.

Pick Released on Feb 25 at 04:33 am

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.

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