Cappers Sports Picks

Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price.  Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings.  Matz has two career starts versus the Marlins and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. 

In Nova we trust. Ivan Nova has been very good for Pittsburgh all season. Nova, not Gerrit Cole, is the Pirates' best pitcher. Nova has been especially strong at home with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts this season. 

 It has been a disappointing year for the Pirates so far, but they have stepped up their play recently going 9-7 in their last 16 games.  I think this is a cheap home price to lay with Nova facing Blake Snell, who is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight starts for Tampa Bay. Snell also doesn't go deep into games, putting the vulnerable Rays bullpen into play probably earlier than usual.  Snell has been so bad the Rays sent him to the minors. Now he's back up. Don't expect much. 

It's not that I don't like Marcus Stroman. I just don't trust him in this price range. Now I'm not a huge fan of Wade Miley, whose average of 19 pitches per inning are the second-most in the majors, but the Orioles have a lot going for them to be this big of underdogs.  Baltimore is hot winning three in a row for the first time in nearly four weeks. The Orioles have owned the Blue Jays lately winning eight of the last 10 against them. Miley is a southpaw. The Blue Jays are 5-13 versus lefty starters this season.   Stroman is not in good form. He's surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He's allowed six homers in his last two starts and has a poor history against the Orioles with a 2-3 lifetime mark and 5.27 ERA in seven games, including six starts. The Orioles entered this week leading the American League in batting average with runners in scoring position.  Miley is 1-1 against Toronto this year with a 2.08 ERA. He's pitching on five days rest. Baltimore is 5-1 the past six times Miley has pitched on five days rest.  Miley isn't likely to go deep into the game, however. He's usually good for just five innings. But Baltimore's bullpen - at least their backend - is much better than perceived with closer Zach Britton not due back until July 5 because of a forearm strain.  Interim closer Brad Brach has allowed only one run in his past 14 appearances giving up just five hits during his last 14 1/3 innings. Setup man Darren O'Day has gone three scoreless innings since returning from the DL this past Friday.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 10-2 on his last 12 premium/free baseball plays. Don't miss any of Stephen's plays!) 

Can the Phillies defeat the Mariners twice in a row at Safeco Field? The answer is a resounding no and I'm willing to lay 1 1/2 runs to back this opinion. Philadelphia is the worst team in the majors. A big reason for this is the Phillies' inability to win on the road. Going back to last season, Philadelphia is a hidieous 12-40 during its last 52 away contests - and that includes beating Seattle last night.  The Mariners have won 18 of their last 29 games while averaging more than six runs per game during this span. They have far too much offense for Mark Leiter Jr., who is set to make his second big league start here. Leiter is a converted reliever, who had a 4.74 ERA in 19 innings. This included giving up 14 walks in 19 innings.  Seattle starter Felix Hernandez looked good in his return from the DL this past Friday. He beat the Astros giving up three runs in six innings. Now he steps down from the best team to the worst team. The Mariners have won nine of Hernandez's last 11 home starts.