Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers pitching staff has been amazing of late. The Dodgers pitching staff has a ridiculous 1.74 ERA over the last two weeks. Rich Hill threw the best he has all year in his last outing at Cincinnati. He threw a little harder than he had been, and he located his pitches very well.

The Rays offenses has come back to earth of late. They do have quite a few injuries, so that is part of the problem. Tampa Bay has scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. 

Tampa Bay starts opener Ryan Stanek here and Chirinos is likely to follow him. Stanek has been great in the opener role. Chirinos has quality stuff and has thrown his best of late.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he has the second highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years according to my umpire database. He's clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Twins ML* The Minnesota Twins start Martin Perez here. Perez isn't a great lefty by any means, but he has improved this year. His swinging strike rate has jumped from 7.2% to 11.4%. Perez is doing a nice job inducing soft contact. He has a 2.89 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. 

The Angels suffered a major blow when Andrelton Simmons went on the disabled list with an injury. He was hitting .298 on the season and providing some big hits in key moments. Most importantly though, Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the game and the Angels will really miss him.

The Angels have been good against right handed pitching this year, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

The Twins lineup is rolling right now. Minnesota ranks second in the majors in wOBA. Minnesota has scored six runs or more in 12 games already in the month of May. 

Matt Harvey has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.12 FIP. He's giving up a lot of hard contact and I don't trust him against this strong Twins lineup.

The Twins are 14-2 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 27th against right handed pitching. With Joey Votto struggling right now, the Reds really need a lot of production from Yasiel Puig (injured and questionable/doubtful to start here) or someone like Scooter Gennett who is on the disabled list with an injury. The Reds won 3-0 last night, but they had only 4 hits in that game.

The Brewers offense is a good one, but they are up against a very good young pitcher in Luis Castillo. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA and a 2.62 FIP this year. Castillo won't keep a 1.90 ERA and he is due some regression, but only 28% of batted balls off Castillo have been hard hit this year. That's one of the lowest percentages of any starter in the majors, and he should continue to be a very good pitcher.

Zach Davies also limits hard contact, and he's up against a struggling Reds offense.

These are two strong bullpens and neither of them have been used all that much in recent days. Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate and he is a strike caller who should help the pitchers here.

The under is 7-0 in Castillo's last 7 road starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. an NL Central foe. The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 vs. an NL Central opponent. The under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 38-0 angle.

Take the under.