Cappers Sports Picks

*3 Star Play on Rays ML* The Baltimore Orioles are banged up in a big way right now. They are without Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus, Johnathan Schoop, and now they are likely to be without Tim Beckham as well.

Tampa Bay isn't a strong offense by far, but they have been much better than the Orioles offense so far this year. 

Baltimore's .266 on base percentage against right handed pitching is worst in the majors. The Orioles bottom of the order is about as weak as you'll see from anyone.

Alex Cobb had no spring training this year and it has thrown him off. Jake Faria has allowed 1 run or less in 3 of his 4 starts this year. 

At a plus money price- I'll take the Rays against the struggling and badly injured Orioles.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Padres ML* The San Diego Padres aren't a particularly good team, but the price is too high here given all the data points we have on this one.

Jon Gray has been a terrible favorite to this point in his career. The Rockies are 8-17 in Gray's 25 career starts as a moneyline favorite of -185 or lower. If you bet $100 on the Rockies in each of Gray's 25 career starts in that price range- you'd be down more than $1,100 already.

Divisional underdogs in the first half of the season have been extremely profitable in the long run. In fact, by taking divisional underdogs of +130 or higher the ROI is above 10% without any other filters in the past ten years. That's a huge sample size. On the road the number is even better.

Gray's worst month of the year is the first month by a huge margin. His 7.17 ERA in the first month in his career is terrible.

Tyson Ross has more movement on the slider this year than he has had in any other year. Ross has been good at Coors Field in the past, and he's backed by a tremendous bullpen.

Too high of a price on this underdog.

Take San Diego. 

*3 Star Play on A's ML* I realize Kendall Graveman has been terrible so far this year. He might get hit around again here, but even if we give the Rangers the advantage at starting pitcher, the massive difference in the Oakland lineup and the Texas lineup right now is too big to ignore given this price.

Oakland has arguably the most improved offense in the NBA. The A's depth is tremendous- the bottom of the order guys are just as tough to get out as the guys at the top.

Texas' pitching is going to have a really tough season. The Rangers offense can usually make up for those issues, but they aren't as good this year. Now, they are badly banged up. Andrus and Odor are out, and Adrian Beltre got injured in their game on Tuesday and is doubtful. The bottom of this Rangers order is extremely weak.

This isn't a move to back Graveman, but rather a selection to fade Texas at this price. I think the market is still too high on Texas. 

Take Oakland.